game preview: Auburn

Date/Time: Saturday, December 31; 7:30

TV: ESPN

History against the Tigers: 1-1

Last matchup: UVA 19, AU 0; 9/3/98; Auburn

Last game: VT 38, UVA 0; UA 42, AU 14

Line: Auburn by 3

Opposing blogs: Track 'Em Tigers

In 2011, UVA won a national championship in lacrosse, went to the College World Series on the heels of a thrilling ninth-inning comeback, won multiple ACC titles, and placed the basketball team in the top 25.....so what better way to cap off an awesome year than with a prime-time bowl game - the best we've had since, well, the last time we went to the Peach Bowl.  It's a well-deserved reward for a great season.  Auburn and UVA don't share a lot of history, at least on the field; the last and only matchup was a home-and-home series in the late '90s, in which each team won on the other's field.  Perhaps a little-known fact: it was a Virginia grad who founded Auburn's program and gave them their school colors.  (So Auburners ought to be grateful to Allen Potts for his summer excursion to England, or else today they might be looking like Ohio State!)  UVA has a golden chance here to make a huge impression in a prime-time slot; Auburn, as we've seen, is nothing like the Auburn of last year, but that's the kind of thing that filters out of impressions.

-- UVA run offense vs. AU run defense

Top backs:
Perry Jones: 176 carries, 883 yards, 5.0 avg.
Kevin Parks: 141 carries, 661 yards, 4.7 avg.

UVA offense:
165.33 yards/game, 4.26 yards/attempt
54th of 120 (national), 5th of 12 (ACC)

AU defense:
194.75 yards/game, 4.66 yards/attempt
88th of 12 (national), 11th of 12 (SEC)

If there's an area of this matchup that has Auburn fans worried, this is it.  UVA's run game hasn't been as productive lately as it was earlier in the season, but then, the last two games of the year (FSU and VT) were against the best run defenses we've seen all season.  Auburn's run defense is more comparable to Georgia Tech or Maryland, both of whom we rolled.

The Auburn front four is inexperienced; three sophomores and a freshman.  Defensive tackles Jeffrey Whitaker and Gabe Wright each top 310 pounds, so there is cloggability in the middle.  But neither is a dynamic playmaker.  Quite a bit of the runstopping is done by outside 'backer Daren Bates, plus the safeties in run support.  UVA's higly seasoned and cohesive offensive line should at least occasionally be able to blow a few holes in the Auburn line, and I expect a quality performance overall.

I don't think an overly complicated game plan will be necessary here.  I think the old Big Ten plan should work just fine: line 'em up and see if your guys are better than theirs.  I'll bet they are.  Do that and at a minimum, UVA should be able to control the ball and the tempo.  Auburn has pulled out a couple really nice games this year (they shut down South Carolina's Marcus Lattimore) but for every game like that one there are three in which they presented no obstacle.  I don't doubt we'll have a 100-yard rusher in this game, and we should be able to pound out 175 yards in total.

-- UVA pass offense vs. AU pass defense

Quarterback:
Michael Rocco: 196/325, 60.3%; 2,359 yards, 11 TD, 11 INT, 7.26 yds/attempt

Top receivers:
Kris Burd: 60 rec., 810 yards, 1 TD
Perry Jones: 41 rec., 416 yards, 3 TD

UVA offense:
231.5 yards/game, 6.9 yards/attempt
65th of 120 (national), 8th of 12 (ACC)

AU defense:
211.0 yards/game, 7.2 yards/attempt
70th of 120 (national), 11th of 12 (SEC)

The UVA passing game has never been described, exactly, as explosive, but since Rocco took the reins (NOT "reigns") for good, he's produced eight touchdowns against just three interceptions, and has averaged 8.2 yards a throw.  That's a very nice number that, if extended to the whole season, would've put UVA in the top 20 passing offenses in the country.

This game would scare me more if Auburn's best cornerback weren't on the sidelines with a destroyed-up knee.  Without him, the Auburn cornerbacks are green as hell.  That said, though, the safeties are to be accounted for.  Neiko Thorpe is a good playmaker, and Demetruce McNeal isn't bad either.  And the number-one threat when Rocco drops back is the speed-rushing terror, Corey Lemonier.  With 9.5 sacks, he's arguably Auburn's best defensive player.  Oday Aboushi will have his hands full with Lemonier all day.

The first priority, I think, should be to attack the edges and test Auburn's rookie cornerbacks.  They will probably start the game in something close to press coverage on our receivers, trusting their safeties to cover for mistakes.  If the run has been established and the safeties have their eyes on the handoff, throwing deep on play-action could pay off.  I think Kris Burd, the grizzled veteran of the WR corps, will have a big day working on whoever has him as their assignment, catching at least six Rocco passes.  As long as Lemonier doesn't end up setting up camp in the backfield, Rocco should become the seventh passer to complete more than 2/3 of his passes against Auburn.

-- AU run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Onterio McCalebb: 102 carries, 532 yards, 5.2 avg.
Tre Mason: 19 carries, 97 yards, 5.1 avg.

AU offense:
174.75 yards/game, 4.26 yards/attempt
54th of 120 (national), 7th of 12 (SEC)

UVA defense:
128.33 yards/game, 3.70 yards/attempt
38th of 120 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)

Those running backs might look a little thin on stats, but there's no point in including the suspended Michael Dyer.  Without him, Auburn no longer has the bruising workhorse that carried their running game all season.  In his place, there's scatback Onterio McCalebb and relative unknown, lightly-used Tre Mason.

McCalebb can be dangerous; he'll also be returning kicks for Auburn and has taken at least one to the house this year.  He's broken a double-digit run in every game this year, despite never having more than 15 carries and often having just 3 to 5.  On the other hand, his season-long is 21.  Mason - I have no idea.  In limited time, his per-carry average is every bit as good as anyone else Auburn has, but it's not even out of the question that he'll see as many carries in this game as he's had all year combined.

The key matchup here will be our defensive tackles vs. Auburn's excellent freshman center, Reese Dismukes.  Dismukes is the only Tiger O-lineman to start every game at one position.  The defensive line must also be prepared to play entire series without substitution because of Auburn's fast-paced no-huddle.  This is where it will hurt not having Bill Schautz - with him, we had a highly dependable three-man rotation at each of the two D-line positions.

UVA will also have to defend the zone read and other running plays designed for freshman quarterback Kiehl Frazier, who comes in the game primarily to run the ball.  Frazier can scoot.  I'd rather have the ball in his hands than McCalebb's, but not by much.

The ground game is Auburn's best chance at moving the ball, and even though we likely have the trench advantage, I expect Auburn to be able to pick up some yards, in fits and starts at worst.  Auburn's up-tempo offense is something we haven't seen before, and that's probably good for at least a long drive or two.  Since they don't have Dyer to lean on, I think Frazier, McCalebb, and Mason will split the carries pretty evenly, so as to keep the defense off-balance.  Really good run defenses have held Auburn under 100 yards, but we're not LSU - I think they'll top 175 just as we will.

-- AU pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Clint Moseley: 65/104, 62.5%; 794 yards, 5 TD, 3 INT; 7.64 yds/attempt

Top receivers:
Emory Blake: 30 rec., 505 yards, 5 TDs
Onterio McCalebb: 30 rec., 291 yards, 1 TD

AU offense:
153.4 yards/game, 6.8 yards/attempt
73rd of 120 (national); 8th of 12 (SEC)

UVA defense:
214.8 yards/game, 6.7 yards/attempt
40th of 120 (national), 2nd of 12 (ACC)

Evidence of the lack of confidence Auburn has in their quarterbacks is the 65-35 split in playcalling, leaning heavily towards the run.  They actually had an even heavier split last year, but that had everything to do with Cam Newton.  Newton's passes and non-Newton runs were much more evenly balanced.

Clint Moseley and Kiehl Frazier will platoon, but it's highly unlikely Frazier will do much throwing.  Gene Chizik says "the whole playbook is open," but that's almost certainly just coachspeak.  Frazier hasn't thrown but 12 times all year, I don't think he's suddenly good for 10-15 passes.

Auburn's receivers might be part of the reason for their lack of desire to pass.  Emory Blake is the only one that has numbers that look like a starting receiver.  Trovon Reed has 21 catches but averages a paltry 7.8 yards a catch.  A lot of the passing game involves McCalebb and/or H-back Philip Lutzenkirchen.  Lutzenkirchen is a red-zone weapon; nearly one-third of his 24 receptions are touchdowns.  McCalebb is also a frequent target; in fact, between the emphasis they give him in the passing game and suddenly being the #1 running back, it's probable he'll have his best game of the season, well outstripping the 119 combined yards he had against Arkansas.

But, you have to like the idea of Chase Minnifield on Blake.  Blake is a good receiver, but Minnifield's covered better this year.  I expect Auburn will try and pick on Demetrious Nicholson, being a true freshman and all, but I don't think they have the weapons to do that consistently.  When it comes to moving the ball through the air, Auburn will have to scheme to get their yardage - getting Lutzenkirchen in mismatches and things like that.  Moseley and Rocco are about even as far as their effectiveness, but Rocco has more weapons to work with.

-- Outlook

Vegas has UVA as three-point underdogs, and that's not even where it started; the money came in and moved the line from an opening of 1.5.  Is this largely on reputation?  Either as a halo effect from last year's championship, or from being in the SEC?  I think so.  UVA has a big advantage in the trenches.  Our offensive line is a veteran group and everyone has started at the same position, every game, all year.  The same for the defensive line.  Auburn's are inexperienced and shuffley.  The Tigers' advantage is in the versatility of their schemes and personnel, but if the UVA lines are dominant enough, it won't matter.  There's a decent chance I'm overrating our talent.  I'm a UVA fan, it's what we do.  But I think I've done my homework enough on Auburn to be able to say: I think we pull off the upset and wrap up 2011 in fine style.

-- Prediction summary

- UVA has a 100-yard rusher.
- UVA runs for over 175 yards.
- So does Auburn.
- Kris Burd has at least six receptions.
- Mike Rocco's completion percentage is over two-thirds.
- Onterio McCalebb leads Auburn in receptions.
- McCalebb has at least 120 combined yards, not counting returns.

Final score: UVA 28, AU 21

-- Rest of the ACC

- Missouri 41, North Carolina 24 (Independence Bowl; not even as close as the score indicated)
- NC State 31, Louisville 24 (Tire Bowl; the Pack made me nervous, because that's not a game we wanted to lose if we want to act like the ACC is a high-major conference.)
- Florida State 18, Notre Dame 14 (Tangerine Bowl; probably the first time in my life I've actively pulled for FSU** - it felt really, really weird.)
- Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State (Music City Bowl; Wake is very likely to get rolled, which means they'll probably win.)
- Georgia Tech vs. Utah (Sun Bowl; I keep forgetting this game is actually happening.)
- Virginia Tech vs. Michigan (Sugar Bowl; this is like another Ohio State game for the Michigan fan in me.)
- Clemson vs. West Virginia (Orange Bowl; let's be honest - this ought to be a blowout for Clemson.)

**I realize Florida State has played VT before, but the fact is my hatred for FSU used to be deep and abiding, and it goes back much further than my hatred for Tech.  So that was always a meteor game.  I still don't like the Noles, exactly, but since they've stopped being the ACC hegemon and Bobby Bowden is no longer the coach, it's begun dissipating to where I can at least root for them for the sake of the ACC.

season preview: Florida State

Florida State Seminoles

Media prediction: 3rd

Last season:

Record: 23-11 (11-5) - ACC 3rd seed
Postseason: NCAA Sweet 16
KenPom: 31st of 345

Returning scoring: 63.2%
Returning rebounding: 58.6%
Returning assists: 57.4%

2010-11 All-ACC:

1st team: none
2nd team: none
3rd team: F Chris Singleton
HM: none
Rookie: none
Defensive: F Chris Singleton

(italics indicate departed player)

Starting lineup:

PG: Luke Loucks (Sr.)
SG: Michael Snaer (Jr.)
SF: Okaro White (So.)
PF: Bernard James (Sr.)
C: Xavier Gibson (Sr.)

Bench:

G Deividas Dulkys (Sr.)
PG Jeff Peterson (Sr.)
F Terrence Shannon (Jr.)
C Jon Kreft (Sr.)
G Terry Whisnant (Fr.)

Coach: Leonard Hamilton (9th season)

ACC schedule:

Twice: Clemson, Duke, Miami, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Once: Boston College, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, NC State, Wake Forest

We should really be liking the whole idea of Florida State right now.  They're living proof that you can have a semi-adequate offense but if you pair it with a nasty, suffocating defense, you too can be a Sweet 16 team.

FSU has officially gained a nationwide reputation for lockdown defense, and that is not an overrated rep.  Last year they were KenPom's #1 defensive team with an 86.2 rating; this year that rating is down to 83.7, which is, like, ridiculous.  (It'll come up some during the ACC season, but still.)

FSU's thing is that they have a guy playing power forward who'd play center on every other team, and then an actual center as well.  The former is Bernard James, who's done a heckuva job evolving his game from novelty (as a former NCO in the Air Force) to actual threat.  It won't surprise you to learn that at 6'10", James blocks a ton of shots.  Xavier Gibson gets the starts at center, and he's 6'11", and between them they're blocking 4.1 shots a game this season.  James by himself has 2.5 BPG, which is....a lot.

Blocks and steals, the secret to success.  Nearly every guard chips in at least 1 steal per game, and sixth man Deividas Dulkys is going strong at 2.2.  FSU averages nine steals and seven blocks per game, which nobody in the conference can touch.  All those blocks lead to an opponent's effective FG% (so far) of just 39%.  The only strange thing is that you'd think a team that tall and that active would also be good rebounders, and they are on the offensive end, but not defensively.  Good numbers for defensive rebounding are the ones above 70% - that is, you get 70% or better of available defensive rebounds - and right now FSU checks in at 65.5%, which is well below average. 

(Oh by the way - do you know who the best defensive rebounding team in the country is right now?  It's your own Virginia Cavaliers at 78.6%.  This is a really sneaky thing to do to people.  At some point this season, there will be an opponent blogger who looks at the big numbers on the ESPN profile that show UVA as the 264th-best rebounding team in the country and they will assume that we're an easy mark and ought to be easily outrebounded.  Then we'll beat their team by 15 and they'll criticize their team's lack of effort on the glass.  This is why your basketball stats should generally be tempo-free, especially rebounds.  Obviously when there are so few possessions in a game, there will be fewer total rebounds.)

But I digress.  Florida State.  Now, they have that great defense, but the scoring - tthhbbbpppttt.  They actually do miss Chris Singleton in this department.  FSU's offensive efficiency has gotten quite a bit worse since last year.  Point guards Luke Loucks and Jeff Peterson are strictly enablers who don't pose a major scoring threat; Peterson is a grad-student transfer from Arkansas (and Iowa earlier) and he's okay at taking care of the ball and all that but he's only shooting .378 from the field, which ain't good.  Loucks may have found a shot this year, as he's hitting on .453, but for most of his career he's been a long way belong the .400 mark.  Most of the scoring load falls on shooting guard Michael Snaer, and he's not very efficient, only shooting .402 himself.  Truthfully, though FSU likes to play a little bit up-tempo, a lot of their offense comes from putbacks or from simply working the ball inside and letting their considerable size advantage go to work.  Dulkys is the only legitimate threat from outside.  And they'll never be a good offense until they take care of their turnover issue.  It's something I brought up in last year's preview of this team - at which time they were turning the ball over on almost 25% of their possessions - and it's only gotten worse as this year they're up to an even 27%.  (In this regard, no higher than about 19% qualifies as "pretty good" and 27% puts you in the nation's bottom ten.  So it's definitely a thing.)

Still - that defense.  There's a reason Tony Bennett preaches it.  Because it makes you a good team and keeps you in every game, which is where FSU will be.  This is a senior-laden, experienced bunch, too.  They might be looking at a drop-off next year what with so many graduating, but they'll be tough to get to this year.  FSU is 7-3 this year, but all three losses are to tournament teams and won't necessarily be held against them come seeding time.  Not even the Harvard one.  It'll hurt that they don't have a marquee nonconference win and won't get one unless they beat Florida, but they should do well against one of the tougher ACC schedules out there (Duke, UVA, VT twice, and BC, GT, Wake just once) and earn another tournament bid.

************************************************

So no post yesterday, and I'm vewy sowwy about that, but it's finals time you see.  If the basketball team gets 12 days off between games, I'm allowed one night to take my last final of the semester too.  A couple things from while I was out:

-- Auburn will be heading to Atlanta minus both coordinators now, with Ted Roof having been fired like last week, and now Gus Malzahn going to Arkansas State to replace Hugh Freeze, who left for Mississippi.  (It makes you wonder why Ole Miss didn't just cut out the middleman and hire Malzahn.)  So no coordinators and no Michael Dyer - the Tigers will be awfully shorthanded.  Obviously it's not like the Auburn offense is just gonna shut down, but I think the #1 effect here is that there won't be a ton of crazy wrinkles in either offense or defense.  Gene Chizik is taking over DC duties for the bowl, no doubt Auburn has a second-in-command to take care of the offense, but going in without their field marshals and one major piece of artillery can only spell good signs for the Hoos.

-- It was kind of a no-brainer, but now it's official: the ACC will go to an 18-game hoops schedule next year.  Is this a way of unofficially announcing that Syracuse and Pittsburgh will be joining up that quickly?  I doubt it - I think the most likely reason for making the move now, as opposed to waiting for the newcomers, is so that teams can nail down the scheduling logistics now and get comfortable with two fewer openings for OOC games.  18 is no great revolution; the Big Ten has been doing it for years and with only 11 teams at that.  It should be fun next year with seven teams on the schedule twice, the closest we've been (and the closest we'll ever get) to the double-round-robin since it went away.

Anyway, with 14 teams in the conference this almost had to happen, otherwise we'd only get to play three teams twice and everyone else once.  That would suck.  If we add two more teams that'll happen anyway, but oh well.

-- There've been so many all-America nominations for our Hoos (and not just in football) that I haven't even mentioned them, so routine has it become. (That sounds horrible, in a way. I should be happier about this stuff.) Chase Minnifield, Demetrious Nicholson, and Austin Pasztor all have various nods from various sources; Minnifield has shown up everywhere. Pitcher Branden Kline (only a couple months til baseball season!) is a first-teamer in the preseason per the NCBWA. But maybe the coolest one is Morgan Brian of the ladies' euro-football team being named Freshman of the Year by Soccer America.  I think we're quickly gathering up some strong contenders for this blog's Cavalier of the Year award next summer.

sportscenter top ten

It's time to count down the top ten plays.  Of the season.  I wish I could do it all Sportscenter-style with highlights and witty commentary, but I don't even have the highlights yet and some of them, I never did.  So you'll just have to see it in your mind's eye.

These are the ten plays from 2011 that I thought were most influential on the season and in getting us to the Peach Bowl.  Keep in mind - there are literally over a thousand to choose from.  So you are highly encouraged to come up with some of your own if these don't satisfy, or you think there's an omission.  A lot of this comes from a quick-and-dirty memory search of my own gray matter - I figured if a play still resonates in December, it was probably that important.  Oh, and they all had good outcomes, or at least, non-bad ones.  So that one time we got totally sacked and threw an interception and fumbled and the other team scored twice on the same play and plus we got a 15-yard penalty for general principles, that didn't make the cut.

So here are this season's ten best:

#10

-- Idaho's overtime two-point conversion attempt falls incomplete.

Lost in the final score, a narrow, 21-20 win for UVA, was that the Hoos basically dominated this game.  I'm not kidding.  We racked up almost 500 total yards, held Brian Reader to 17-of-41 passing, and Mike Rocco was efficient and took care of the ball.  But fumbles, missed field goals, and a blocked punt that was taken back for a touchdown almost turned the game into a disaster.  Idaho scored on their first possession of OT, and like all upstart WAC-snacks who smell a win, went for the all-or-nothing proposition.  But the UVA defense forced Reader from the pocket and then knocked down his pass attempt to preserve the win.  A true team effort.  I almost feel like this one should be higher - we definitely don't go to the Peach Bowl at 7-5 with that loss to Idaho, and who knows what the psyche of the team might have otherwise been like?  The score masked a much better game than appearances would have it, but fortunately, it was only a veil rather than an ugly black cloud.

#9

-- Mike Rocco passes to Tim Smith for 34 yards in Tallahassee

In front of a sold-out and hostile Seminole crowd - it is never any different in Tallahassee - UVA had played an outstanding game on defense but only had a 13-7 deficit to show for it.  The offense had been largely motionless, other than a second-quarter drive capped by a gorgeous Rocco-to-Jones TD toss.  With 1:53 to go, the Hoos needed another comeback drive and a touchdown, or the game would simply go down as a moral-victory-but-there's-no-such-thing.

UVA started at their own 25, but the speed in which Rocco marched the team downfield was stunning.  On 2nd-and-1 on the second play of the drive, he found Tim Smith open downfield for a 34-yard pickup, the longest Rocco pass play of the night.  That hushed the crowd and changed the dynamic of the drive - UVA still had a minute and a half to score and now had the ball on the Florida State 32.  The rest was too easy; Kevin Parks would punch it in three plays later with entirely too much time on the clock, giving UVA a 14-13 lead and setting up one of the wildest finishes to any college football game in recent memory.

#8

-- Chase Minnifield pick-six

Against Duke, UVA was having a very chippy game; it was turning out nastier than anyone had expected, and the score was (controversially) tied, 14-14, at halftime, and Duke would receive the second-half kick.  On the fourth play of the half's opening drive, however, Cam Johnson cam roaring around the edge, abusing Duke's Takoby Cofield for the umpteenth time that day, and forced Sean Renfree into a poor read and a hurried pass.  It was too far ahead of the receiver, and it settled easily into Minnifield's hands, who ran untouched into the end zone to give UVA a 21-14 lead.

Duke would soon tie it up, aided by an out-of-bounds kickoff and a 51-yard pass to the red zone, but the pick-six energized the Hoos, and when the offense finally got a hold of the ball, they would answer the Duke TD with one of their own for a lead they'd never relinquish.

#7

-- Rodney McLeod picks off Danny O'Brien

Playing for bowl eligibility in College Park, UVA had just scored a 3rd-quarter touchdown to take a 21-13 lead, after trailing in the second quarter.  Maryland was trying to respond, and they began their drive with a 39-yard pass play to set themselves up in Virginia territory.  But on second down following that, Rodney McLeod picked off Danny O'Brien to end the threat.

There is often a turning point in a football game, or rather, in this case, a screw-it point.  Maryland's season was already in the toilet, and in fact, they were smack in the middle of a season-ending eight-game losing streak.  UVA scored relatively easily after McLeod's interception, and the game's only other tally was a score-padding field goal early in the fourth.  Psychologically, the Terps were done after McLeod's pick, his first of three, and UVA would have that coveted sixth win for bowl eligibility.

#6

-- Matt Conrath destroys the handoff

It was a dead heat, for me, between this and Conrath's field-goal block that came a few plays later.  I chose this one because it's the single awesomest thing a defensive lineman can do: tackle the quarterback as he's handing the ball off, or even before.  Nobody expects it.  Nobody coaches with that in mind.  Even with a field goal block, teams are trained up on 1) how to avoid it in the first place and 2) what to do if they occur.  It's a waste of practice time to say, OK guys, here's what you must do if the quarterback fails to execute the handoff because there's a bad man in the backfield.

Yet that is precisely what happened against Duke.  The setup: It's a scoreless game, and it's Duke, and much to everyone's chagrin, Duke is only one of two teams that have beaten us all three of the previous losing seasons.  I mean, you hate that VT does it but they're really good.  Duke is Duke.  So it chafes that Duke has been on our case.  UNC, Maryland, Miami, GT - we've beaten them at least once, but not Duke.  So here we are in a scoreless game, the defense has just made a big third-down stop, and Duke punts - and our returner makes a really nutty, boneheaded decision, muffs the punt, and hands Duke the ball in awesome field position.  And they start moving the ball.

Then, on first down, Matt Conrath makes a mess.  He completely disregards his blocker and roars into the backfield, slamming into Sean Renfree as he tries to execute a basic handoff.  Renfree fumbles, Duke recovers - but 2nd and 15 is too much to overcome, and Duke tries a field goal.  Which Conrath also destroys.

The UVA offense then marched smartly down the field, and instead of Duke taking a 7-0 lead, it's UVA with the opening salvo.  Instead of "here we go again" it's "get off my lawn."  The entire sequence, by the way, convinced the Duke coaches that it was Conrath, not Cam Johnson, who needed to be double-teamed, and Johnson spent the rest of the day proving that yes, he needed to be double-teamed too.

#5

-- Perry Jones and the slant-six

Against Miami on Thursday night, UVA was trying to get out of a rut.  In an attempt to salvage the season, Mike London had announced that the QB platoon was no more, and the results thus far into the game had been very positive.  But Miami had just turned a short pass to Tommy Streeter into a 51-yard touchdown, and was threatening to move into the lead, with the score 20-14, UVA.  On the subsequent drive, Virginia faced a critical third down deep in its territory, and the Miami crowd was sensing punt.  So was the Miami defense; and not only that, they were sensing run.  Miami loaded the box to stop what it thought would be a handoff.

But UVA had no intention of running.  UVA's pre-snap motion telegraphed the defense to Rocco, and with a linebacker - Miami's James Gaines - trying to cover Perry Jones in the slot, the read was easy.  Rocco threw the slant on a dart, and the target found bullseye - a beautiful throw.  Gaines gambled on the knockdown and lost, and with no safety help over the top, Jones was free to sprint the final 75 yards to the end zone.  UVA scored on the 2PC to earn a 28-14 lead, and every one of those points later came in handy....

#4

-- Laroy Reynolds on fourth and ballgame

Course, that touchdown was looking awfully fragile by this time.  Miami sliced the deficit in half on the ensuing drive, and a three-and-out drive that started on our own eight-yard-line resulted in fantastic field position for the Canes.  They started just the other side of the 50, and churned their way to the UVA 15, eating up time as they went.  I'm pretty sure 90% of the UVA fanbase was dreading the very idea of overtime; you hate to go when it's you that's blown the lead.

The defense put Miami in its second fourth-down of the drive at the 15-yard-line, and with about two minutes to go, it was basically fourth-and-ballgame.  With two minutes and change left in the game, it was obvious that if Miami failed to convert, even if they got the ball back they'd have precious little time and no timeouts to work with.  If they did convert, they'd be just 13 yards or less from the end zone and able to work at whatever leisurely pace they desired.

Miami called a second straight handoff to Mike James, pulling their right guard and intending to power-run off-tackle to pick up the first.  But Laroy Reynolds was either blitzing that very spot, or read the play quick enough to look like it.  He blew past the tight end assigned to block him and smothered James in the backfield with a perfect tackle.  Miami did indeed get another chance at the ball after UVA picked up only one first down, but Reynolds's play put all the pressure back on the Canes, and essentially preserved the win for UVA.  It would be the first win of a season-making four-game win streak.

#3

-- FSU's Bert Reed doesn't quite haul it in

I'm not going to cheat and call a whole series of plays one for the purposes of this list.  Otherwise the whole FSU drive could go here.  In picking the catch that wasn't, the most disservice is done to Bill Schautz and Drequan Hoskey, whose picture-perfect, textbook defense was responsible for two pass breakups.

But in the wildest finish of the season, how can we pick any other play but the one we stared at for ten minutes?  The circumstances of the play put everyone on opposite sides of sanity; UVA coaches were insisting that the Florida State receiver had made a perfectly good catch, and FSU wanted the catch by their own player overturned and ruled incomplete.  The entire drive had been a Chinese fire drill from the start and generally an example of poor clock-management by the FSU sideline.  Left with no timeouts, and on the edge of field goal range, the Seminole coaches called for a sideline pass.  A quick strike that would see the receiver catch the ball, gain a couple of cheap yards, and his momentum carry him out of bounds, stopping the clock and allowing kicked Dustin Hopkins plenty of time to set up his game-winning field goal.

Bert Reed was the target, and unfortunately for the Noles, Reed wasn't close enough to the sideline.  He dove for the ball with Laroy Reynolds providing quality coverage, and appeared - to the side judge anyway - to have successfully hauled it in.  Inbounds.  The clock ticked on, and expired before FSU could get their FG unit on.  Except - an excruciatingly long review concluded Reed didn't have control of the ball, and called the play incomplete.

The later events - an obscure penalty call on Virginia and a wide-left kick anyway - only served to add to the absurdery that was the final minute-and-six of that game.  But it's the overturned completion, with UVA's coaches herding their players back to the sideline and insisting it was a good catch by the other team, and the three thousand replays over four hours (in football-fan time) before any decision was made, is what really leaves the most indelible imprint.

#2

-- Cam Johnson eats Edward Wright-Baker for dinner

As results go, beating eventual 1-11 Indiana by three doesn't rank too well.  But simply earning that win gave UVA several firsts - first road win for Mike London, first 2-0 start in however long - and had UVA not beaten the Hoosiers after starting the game so strongly, this, like Idaho also, could have been a psyche-killer.

UVA had had a 23-3 lead and then blown the whole thing and then some, finding itself down 31-23 in front of a suddenly delighted Hoosier crowd.  But Mike Rocco had put together a drive that still ranks as one of the season's finest, and capped it with a 2PC to tie the game at 31 - still, 96 seconds remained, and Indiana had driven the ball well enough in the second half that the crowd was plenty confident that they could work their way to field-goal range and seal it up.  Wright-Baker would eventually be replaced later in the season as IU's starting QB, but on this day he was a thorn, and in the second half had discovered how to make plays with his legs.  This latter skill was killing the Hoos.

Cam Johnson, therefore, decided he wouldn't get the chance.  Johnson roared past the left tackle and pounced on the unsuspecting Wright-Baker.  The sack was one thing - it would've forced Indiana to punt and given UVA a shot at winning.  But Johnson didn't only sack Wright-Baker, he ripped the ball free, and didn't even allow it the courtesy of bouncing on the ground.  Johnson landed on the IU 14-yard-line, ball in hand, with the referee emphatically gesturing the change of possession.  It was too fast for normal human eyes to register - first there was a beast in the backfield, and then it was UVA's ball.  Just like that.  Rarely does one single individual play directly lead to a win if it's not accompanied by the clock expiring, but this was the perfect example of such an individual effort.

#1

-- Chase Minnifield hauls ass

This one goes here for sheer hustle.  Kids, this is why you hustle.  It matters.  It really does.

The setup: Bert Reed has just caught a pass from E.J. Manuel that traveled 15-ish yards in the air, and he's busting his butt to travel the rest of them between catch and end zone.  He's beaten his coverage, broken one tackle, and nobody is near him.  End zone is in sight, and Florida State will take a 17-7 lead.  That's not much, but in the context of a defensive struggle, yes it is.  It's like when a pitchers' duel is 1-0 and then suddenly it's 3-0.  It feels like game over.

Chase Minnifield is a hair faster than Bert Reed, though, and he was having none of this.  Minnifield sprinted for dear life after Reed, and caught up to him I mean literally just in time.  Any fraction of a second later and it wouldn't have mattered, but Minnifield was able to trip Reed up, and he came to earth at the 1-yard line.

Three plays later, FSU was two yards further back and kicking a field goal to stretch the lead to 13-7.  At the time, it felt like small consolation.  But the final score of the biggest win of London's UVA career was, as you'll recall, 14-13.  Turns out Chase Minnifield's hustle was the difference between winning and losing after all.

weekend review

This is going to be kind of a short review and also late because I've been spending all day focusing on the positive.  Thinking happy, positive thoughts.  It's days like Saturday where I'm thankful to have two teams in my rooting satchel.  It sucks we lost - really, it sucks that we lost 38-0, I would've been able to just let a 21-14 loss wash right over me - but fortunately it cannot dampen Michigan's win over Ohio State.  That's the bonus - you'd think going 1-1 on Saturday would even things out, but a win over a rival is untouchably delicious.  Nothing can ever ruin that.

Of course, the flipside is that nothing can make up for a 38-point loss to a rival, either, right?  Wrong - we are 8-4 and going bowling.  As I was hoping to be 6-6 at this point, I can't let myself be too disappointed.  I think the bowl possibilities are narrowed down to two: the Department Store Bowl in Charlotte and the Music City Bowl in Nashville, with either Cincinnati or Vanderbilt, respectively, as opponents.  In other words, we're not even stuck in some non-destination hole playing some glorified D-II Sun Belt squad, and there are beatable opponents waiting.  Win this upcoming bowl game to go to 9-4 and I can call it, at worst, the second-best season of UVA football since I arrived on Grounds as a bright-eyed and bushy-tailed first-year.  How can I complain?  Besides the obvious, I mean.

Speaking of the obvious, let's take one last necessary look back on Saturday and then file it forever.  Because we have to tally up the predictions, that's why.  Otherwise, the only analysis you need is HOOS PLAY BAD.  No need to anguish over things like the decision to forgo a field goal - wooo, it would've been 38-3 and besides that VT would've gotten the ball back in better field position than they did so maybe they'd've scored on that drive and then it would've been 45-3.  Hoos play bad.  Turn ball over.  Not run block.  Analyzing that game - so easy a caveman can do it.  Let's analyze predictions instead:

- Either Jones or Parks tops 100 yards rushing.

You heard me: Not run block.

- Mike Rocco completes between 50 and 60 percent of his passes.

16 of 27 does in fact qualify.  Unfortunately, he didn't do the other thing I said he needed to do, which is take care of the ball.  Rocco actually moved the ball very well as long as he was on his own side of the field.  When the Hokies had less ground to defend, they did it very well.

- So does Logan Thomas.

Thomas was 13/21, which is more than 60%, so I get nothing here.  It's the only right call, as UVA failed in general to shut down Thomas through the air.  The two things I most feared came to pass, and you see the result.

- David Wilson runs for 120+ yards.

Make that three things.  Wilson got his yards alright, 153 of them.

- Perry Jones catches at least five. He is Superman. 

Jones caught zero.  Hello kryptonite.

- Whichever QB throws fewer interceptions, wins.

You know how this one went.

Three for six gives me 36-of-88 in the regular season, which is a shade under 41%.  Considering how specific I make these predictions, I think that's not half bad.  6-6 in the score department, though, which literally is half bad, and 6-5-1 ATS.  I have a chance to get over .500 on picks, and I suspect I'll do so if the Hoos win their bowl.

Losing means I didn't get to cast a vote for UVA in the Blogpoll after all.  Maybe next year - or maybe in the final poll after the bowl.  Anyway, this is the ballot.  They're coming later these days because they take longer to do every week.

From Old Virginia Ballot - Week 14

Rank	Team	Delta
1	LSU Tigers	--
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
3	Oklahoma Sooners	2
4	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	-1
5	Michigan Wolverines	-1
6	Boise St. Broncos	--
7	Stanford Cardinal	2
8	Oregon Ducks	-1
9	Wisconsin Badgers	5
10	Virginia Tech Hokies	3
11	USC Trojans	-3
12	South Carolina Gamecocks	8
13	Nebraska Cornhuskers	5
14	Georgia Bulldogs	3
15	Michigan St. Spartans	7
16	Houston Cougars	-4
17	TCU Horned Frogs	-7
18	Arkansas Razorbacks	-7
19	Kansas St. Wildcats	--
20	Baylor Bears	4
21	Clemson Tigers	-6
22	Penn St. Nittany Lions	-6
23	Florida St. Seminoles	--
24	Southern Miss. Golden Eagles	-1
25	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-4
Dropouts: Rutgers Scarlet Knights

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

There's a lot of change because there were a lot of rivalry-game routs, and these rivalry games don't often match up a powerhouse against a patsy, so there was a lot of opportunity to make things happen.

I don't want to be ranking Southern Miss, by the way, but they are 10-2 (and UVA is kind of a marquee win) and the alternative is either Georgia Tech or dipping into the Big East turdbowl.  So there you have it.  And if it's any consolation, Saturday was clearly Virginia Tech's best win of the season - usually I just slot that one in the middle somewhere.  (That's not consolation?  Well, I tried.)

********************************************

This marks this year's final installment of Senior Seasons - a few teams are still playing, so I'll toss the results out there if I remember, but only in news bullets.  But have no fear - I expect the 2013 recruiting class to be absolutely outstanding, so next year this ought to be a fun section.

Piscataway 34, Franklin 19: Kye Morgan ran for 158 yards and a touchdown, which pushed him over 1,000 yards in just ten games, but Franklin lost their annual rivalry game and finished 6-4.

Buford 42, Elbert County 13 (C.J. Moore)
St. Joseph 32, Hammonton 3 (Max Valles)
St. Joseph Prep 30, Malvern Prep 14 (Michael Mooney)
Hermitage 10, L.C. Bird 0 (Andre Miles-Redmond)

Only three schools will play next week: St. Joseph and Max Valles, Buford and C.J. Moore, and Hermitage with Andre Miles-Redmond.  St. Joseph won its rivalry game against crosstown public school Hammonton, and next week will play for New Jersey's Non-Public I championship.  Buford and Hermitage are in the state semifinals, Georgia's AA division and Virginia's Level 6.  Hermitage's opponent is Centreville, and the winner plays the winner of Oscar Smith and Battlefield at Scott Stadium.

All three have excellent chances; St. Joseph has outscored opponents 423 to 19 this year.  Hermitage should be favored against Centreville and then would likely have a battle of the titans against Oscar Smith.  Buford has been crushing everyone and is going for its fifth straight title; it would take an upset for them to lose.

********************************************

-- I forgot to mention the demise of the soccer teams in their NCAA tournaments.  The men, deprived of their best scorer, didn't get past the first round, losing at Klockner to Delaware, 1-0.  The ladies carried a shutout streak into the quarterfinals (including a 4-0 win over VT) but lost to FSU in the quarters.  Women's sports being what they are (which is to say, way fewer upsets) all four teams in the semis are 1 seeds; UVA was a 2 seed.

-- Someone tell me again why it's the ACC that always gets the bad football rap.  We have nine bowl-eligible teams; the Pac-12 would have seven if one of them wasn't a dirty cheater.  Seven Pac-12 teams have a losing record in-conference, and five overall, or they will once UCLA gets rocked in the Pac-12 championship.  Only five ACC teams have losing conference records, and only three have losing records overall.  And if you tell me that's because the ACC plays one fewer conference game and builds its record up on the nonconference schedule, I'll ask you why the SEC gets a pass on theirs.

At worst, the ACC has been the fourth-best conference this year behind the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 - and the Big 12 is being held together by duct tape and toothpicks.  The Pac-12 has already fired three of its coaches (all in the putrid Pac-12 South) with more potentially on the way.

-- Speaking of fired coaches, it appears that the ACC will get through this offseason without a single coaching change.  That hasn't happened since the 2005-2006 offseason.  Although it's not for lack of trying on the part of the fanbases.  Marylanders are already chomping at the bit, of course, to get rid of Randy Edsall.  Can't imagine why.  And Bostonites want Frank Spaziani gone, but he's not going anywhere.  (Via BC Interruption.)

-- After the talk of being "Oregon of the East" during last year's uniform unveilings (and getting out-Oregonned so hard by Maryland - and come to think of it, VT as well, but much more quietly) that died down fast this year.  UVA skipped two combinations entirely (white over blue and orange over orange, the latter of which THANK GOD) and only used two combinations more than once (orange over blue three times and white over white four times.)  All that hype over fancy new unis and we roll with white on white as much as possible.

Everything else was used just once.  I could go the rest of my life and be happy never seeing blue/blue in any uniform style ever, but the white jersey with orange pants is too sharp to ignore.  And it's a little disappointing to see so little of the classic blue and whites.  There's still the bowl game, though.

-- UVA got very solid representation on the all-ACC teams released today.  I don't think I can complain about any snubs; I guess I would have liked to see Perry Jones (honorable mention) get more consideration than Andre Ellington (2nd team) simply because Jones is a much greater receiving threat than Ellington, but I think overall it's pretty decent.  And ohbytheway, nobody had more players on the first team than UVA did.  Only Florida State tied us, with three.  Here's the breakdown as far as UVA is concerned:

1st team: Austin Pasztor, Matt Conrath, Chase Minnifield
2nd team: Oday Aboushi, Steve Greer
HM: Perry Jones, Rodney McLeod, Anthony Mihota

-- Big basketball game tomorrow.  Big one.  It's kind of a bittersweet moment in history for me; it'll be the first time I've ever cheered against Michigan in anything.  (I've always said that if this ever happened, I'd choose sides based on who needs the win more; that is clearly Virginia.  It'll make up for my answer to Gobbler Country about picking a U-M win over a UVA one on Saturday.)  On the plus side, you can expect a pretty well-informed game preview.

game preview: Virginia Tech

Date/Time: Saturday, November 26, 3:30

TV: ABC/ESPN2

History against the Hokies: 37-50-5

Last matchup: VT 37, UVA 7; 11/27/10; Blacksburg

Last game: UVA 14, FSU 13; VT 24, UNC 21

Line: VT by 4

Opposing blogs: Gobbler Country, The Key Play

Injury report: too early for it right now.  Maybe I put it in later, maybe not.

Do I need to say anything to hype up this game, or to tell you anything about the importance of it?  I don't.  You know what's at stake.  That's a good thing, because I'm hardly sure if I can.  It's hard to do justice to this game in a single paragraph, especially to what it would mean if we won.  The list of possibilities is long: a spot in the ACC championship game; major recruiting chops; a year's worth of ammunition against a fanbase that is both galactically arrogant and hates us because they think we're arrogant.  You have your own reasons for wanting this one, and the exciting part is, it's our best chance in years.

-- UVA run offense vs. VT run defense

Top backs:
Perry Jones: 170 carries, 870 yards, 5.1 avg, 5 TDs
Kevin Parks: 134 carries, 644 yards, 4.8 avg, 8 TDs

UVA offense:
177.64 yards/game, 4.44 yards/attempt
43rd of 120 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)

VT defense:
104.91 yards/game, 3.29 yards/attempt
19th of 120 (national), 3rd of 12 (ACC)

Out of the frying pan, into the fire, so to speak.  From one tough run defense to another.  VT's rush defense isn't that far behind FSU's; the difference is that FSU did not honestly have any bad games.  They had games where they allowed teams to sort of approach their average.  VT has had bad games, and therein lies your hope.  Miami, for example, the same Miami that UVA shut down, went apeshit, with Lamar Miller running for 166 yards on 18 carries.

Up front, Tech basically does not ever rotate its defensive linemen.  Injuries have forced them to run thin at this spot.  Against UNC, which was having success running the ball until Giovanni Bernard left the game with a concussion, the starting four each played over 90% of available snaps.  Nose tackle Derrick Hopkins can make plays, but fellow tackle, freshman Luther Maddy, is an exploitable spot in the defense.

Injuries have similarly befell the Tech linebacking corps; Jeron Gouveia-Winslow and Bruce Taylor both suffered Lisfranc injuries to their feet, and are out for the season.  Gouveia-Winslow's backup, Alonzo Tweedy, has also been hurt, forcing Tech to play a full-time nickel package.  That leaves middle linebacker Tariq Edwards, who knows what he's doing out there.  Edwards is a playmaker and he's been instrumental in covering up for a little bendability on the defensive line.  At the other linebacker position, Taylor's old spot, Tech now rotates Barquell Rivers and walk-on Jack Tyler.  Neither are standouts, but they get the job done.

Other than Georgia Tech, UVA will be VT's best test in the run game.  Tech is traditionally good at this stuff, but could be vulnerable if they are forced to play a 4-2-5 nickel as their base defense.  Replacing a linebacker with 189-pound nickel cornerback, freshman Detrick Bonner, is a decent proposition for UVA.  Tech's defensive ends are good pass-rush ends, but smallish, and the whole setup is far less experienced than UVA's offensive line.

Do not, by the way, put it past Mike London to have come up with a way to use David Watford in a creative fashion.  London is good at pulling out the stops.  I'm not saying we're suddenly gonna go back to that damnable quarterback platoon, but you'll remember how Vic Hall almost singlehandedly took the Hokies down in 2008 because they never saw that coming.  It's possible London has Watford in mind for something similar.

In 2004, Alvin Pearman rattled off 147 yards in a 24-10 loss; since then, no UVA tailback has turned in a 100-yard performance in the Tech game.  Does that change this week?  I think so.  I think you will see Bill Lazor pound the run enough to get either Superman Jones or Parks over that mark.  The challenge will be to see if our wide receivers can get some quality blocking in, because Kyle Fuller is an excellent run-stopping cornerback.  If not for him, Tech might be in semi-dire straits.

-- UVA pass offense vs. VT pass defense

Quarterback:
Mike Rocco: 180/298, 60.4%; 2,148 yards, 11 TD, 9 INT; 7.21 yds/attempt

Top receivers:
Kris Burd: 53 rec., 710 yards, 1 TD
Perry Jones: 41 rec., 416 yards, 3 TD

UVA offense:
233.4 yards/game, 6.9 yards/attempt
67th of 120 (national), 8th of 12 (ACC)

VT defense:
202.6 yards/game, 6.7 yards/attempt
40th of 120 (national), 5th of 12 (ACC)

(Before I get started, this is the point where I have to say I have not yet gotten tired of watching Mike Rocco loft that touchdown pass to Perry Jones last week.  That throw had to be perfect to find its target, and there are other QBs in the nation that can make that throw too, but it can't be thrown any better.)

5th of 12 looks pretty average, but there are four teams tied at #1, and VT is just two-tenths of a yard behind them.  So we're not talking about an easy time here, really.  The really cogent stat here is that VT is only one of three pass defenses in the country that allows a completion percentage less than 50%; the only team ahead of them here is Alabama.  Even the explosive Clemson, the only team to beat VT, hit on just 13-of-32 passing.

Jayron Hosley is a very solid cornerback and in most years would probably earn first-team all-ACC honors, and strong safety Antone Exum (the Hokie defense calls it "rover") joins him in the pass-defense excellence category; both have 11 passes defensed, with 10 breakups for Exum and eight plus three picks for Hosley.  Middle 'backer Tariq Edwards has two picks of his own; this defense is no picnic to throw against.

The pass rush is also an issue; ends James Gayle and J.R. Collins have five and six sacks, respectively.  Tech also likes to corner-blitz with Fuller, who's picked up three.  (This all is partly why I say Lazor will prefer to pound the run.)

Rocco has been hovering at 60% completion just about all season.  I don't think he'll get there on Saturday, but for UVA to win, he won't absolutely need to if the run game is working.  What he does absolutely need to do is avoid throwing interceptions.  UVA loses this game if Rocco throws two of them, is how I see it.  He's been exceptional lately in the take-care-of-the-ball department, and was remarkably cool under pressure against Florida State.  But that was "just" Florida State; there wasn't as much pressure, in the sense of pressure to succeed.  I think Rocco will complete between 50 and 60% of his passes, with Perry Jones once again being a recipient of at least five of them, and that'll be enough to keep things from getting out of hand as long as some of those incompletions aren't actually interceptions.

-- VT run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
David Wilson: 231 carries, 1,442 yards, 6.2 avg., 7 TD
Logan Thomas: 118 carries, 387 yards, 3.3 avg., 9 TD

VT offense:
201.27 yards/game, 4.73 yards/attempt
36th of 120 (national), 3rd of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
123.36 yards/game, 3.66 yards/attempt
37th of 120 (national), 5th of 12 (ACC)

This is going to be a short section.  David Wilson will get his yards and that's all there is to it.  He will break tackles and it will be frustrating.  You basically just mark him down for 130 yards on 20-25 carries and call it a day.  Only UNC and Arkansas State(!) managed to hold him under 100, and even then he got 80-some, which, it's not like that sucks.

Also, Logan Thomas will run the ball and that's all there is to that, too.  Here's where you like things a little better.  Thomas typically carries about 12 times a game.  Often, a running quarterback has similar numbers to Thomas's, and the low average means he gets sacked a lot.  Thomas has only been sacked 12 times; some of his runs are designed keepers, and some of them are because he's so goddam huge that he's tough to actually sack, and turns a loss of 2 into a gain of 2.  Both of these guys are just loads to bring down.  UVA has got to play perfect positioning, because arm tackles will never cut it.  Especially not with Thomas, who is a galoot and a half.  Oh, and VT's offensive line: huge as well, with three 300-pounders, and topping out at 311 with Blake DeChristopher.

Now, the silver lining here: starting center Andrew Miller may not play.  He was hurt in the UNC game.  Could that have been responsible for Wilson's un-Wilsonlike day?  Perhaps.  Tech has faith in utility backup Michael Via, so I wouldn't hang your hat on suddenly being able to stuff the Turkeys all day long in the run game, but every little bit helps.

Regardless of that injury, though, it's the easiest prediction in the world for me to chalk up Wilson for another 120-yard game.  Hopefully it takes him like 30 carries, but he'll get there.

-- VT pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Logan Thomas: 180/298, 60.4%; 2,338 yards, 16 TD, 7 INT; 7.85 avg.

Top receivers:
Jarrett Boykin: 50 rec., 629 yards, 4 TDs
Danny Coale: 48 rec., 761 yards, 3 TDs

VT offense:
222.8 yards/game, 8.0 yards/attempt
29th of 120 (national), 6th of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
213.7 yards/game, 6.5 yards/attempt
30th of 120 (national), 1st of 12 (ACC)

I had to double-take to make sure I didn't get my wires crossed and accidentally put one QB's numbers in for another, but it's an actual truth: Rocco and Thomas have attempted and completed exactly the same number of passes each.  There's your Yak Fact of the day.

Anyway, if you want to win the game, it has to happen when Logan Thomas drops back to pass.  I am stealing a bit of the thunder from the other half of the Gobbler Country Q&A, so, bad blogger dude, but here is what I see about Thomas.  Three of his games matched both the following two criteria: more INTs than TDs, and a below-average (or so near it that it counts) completion percentage.  They were his three worst games, passer-rating-wise, of the season - ECU, Clemson, and Duke.  They're also Tech's three worst of the season.  They averaged 11 points a game in those three, and 32 points a game in the rest of their FBS matchups.

UVA can top 11 points on Tech.  That is very doable.  They will not top 32; they haven't done that since Indiana.  Make Logan Thomas have a bad day throwing and UVA can, and likely will, win this football game.  David Wilson is a complete hoss but one-dimensional offenses have trouble regardless of opponent or how good that one dimension is.

Now, Thomas is developing into a dangerous passer.  Coale and Boykin are his main weapons; Tech doesn't deploy the tight end or running backs as pass-catchers most of the time.  And the deep ball is not a specialty; Thomas can hit it sometimes, but not too consistently.  This plays into Virginia's hands rather well, I think, considering that we have the lockdownest corner in the league.  Danny Coale is an obnoxious son of a bitch because he's that gritty, techniquey white receiver that always makes a 10-yard catch on 3rd-and-9, and he's like a seventh-year junior or something.  If Chase can shut down Coale, that'll be huge.  That would almost be the ballgame.

Remember that I pointed out that the VT pass defense is second in the country in completion percentage; you know that the UVA defense ain't too shabby itself in this regard, coming in at 11th.  Like Rocco, I only expect Thomas to complete 50 to 60% of his passes.  That means whoever turns the ball over less, wins.

-- Outlook

In 2003, I went into this game feeling, along with the rest of the student body that "it's our year, and if not now, when?"  It's been awfully hard to think that since then.  "If not now, when?" may have been partly a function of the fact that it was my last game in Scott Stadium as a student, but Tech also has a better team now; it's hard to feel like this is our best shot for a while.  It's not like they can get much better than 10-1.

But it's hardly an invincible 10-1.  My brain says Tech has the advantage in at least two of four of the above game sections, possibly three if Logan Thomas decides to have a really good day.  And special teams is not a happy place either (although we have gotten our hands on several field goal attempts this year, and nothing would be funner than getting another one this weekend.  Tech acts like blocking kicks is still their big thing but they haven't been really stand-out good in that area for a while.  Plus, their punting really sucks.)

On paper, Tech should win.  But on paper, so should Florida State have.  This UVA team is flying high with confidence right now.  It's too early in the process to call it cockiness; UVA just didn't seem to realize that FSU was more talented.  UVA is much more experienced in the trenches besides, and hopefully will be willing to run the ball til Perry Jones's legs fall off.  If I were an objective media dude doing a drive-by pick, VT would be a logical choice.  I'm not.  I'm a homer blogger and I'm allowed to sit on my homer ass and do homer things once in a while.  UVA will be confident, more motivated, and finally has some talent and experience to match, and is playing at home besides.  This is our year, and you're off your fucking rocker if you think I'm gonna pick otherwise.

-- Prediction summary:

- Either Jones or Parks tops 100 yards rushing.
- Mike Rocco completes between 50 and 60 percent of his passes.
- So does Logan Thomas.
- Perry Jones catches at least five.  He is Superman.
- David Wilson runs for 120+ yards.
- Whichever QB throws fewer interceptions, wins.

Final score: UVA 23, VT 17

-- Rest of the ACC:

- Boston College @ Miami, 3:30 Friday (Don't be surprised to see BC pull this out, now that Miami has pulled out of bowl contention and will probably be playing in front of 400 people.)
- Georgia Tech vs. Georgia, 12:00 (Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate.  If GT loses, it might improve our chances of going to El Paso, but do we want that?)
- Maryland @ NC State, 12:30 (NC State trying to finally get bowl-eligible.  You should be hoping they do for the ACC's sake.  Also screw Maryland.)
- Duke @ North Carolina, 3:30 (Only thing at stake is the right to chant Just Like Football in February.)
- Wake Forest vs. Vanderbilt, 3:30 (Vandy trying to be bowl-eligible, which would be cool and piss off Maryland fans even more.)
- Florida State @ Florida, 7:00 (The last time these teams had so few wins between them?  Not even the Zook era, I don't think.)
- Clemson @ South Carolina, 7:45 (Truthfully, this ought to be a very entertaining game.)

weekend review

Phew.  It's been a busy weekend, which is why you haven't seen a poll ballot.  Here is that ballot, provided with little explanation because we have got to get a move on here.

From Old Virginia Ballot - Week 13

Rank	Team	Delta
1	LSU Tigers	--
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	1
3	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	-1
4	Michigan Wolverines	3
5	Oklahoma Sooners	-1
6	Boise St. Broncos	--
7	Oregon Ducks	-2
8	USC Trojans	6
9	Stanford Cardinal	2
10	TCU Horned Frogs	-1
11	Arkansas Razorbacks	10
12	Houston Cougars	8
13	Virginia Tech Hokies	2
14	Wisconsin Badgers	-2
15	Clemson Tigers	-5
16	Penn St. Nittany Lions	1
17	Georgia Bulldogs	2
18	Nebraska Cornhuskers	-10
19	Kansas St. Wildcats	4
20	South Carolina Gamecocks	-7
21	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-5
22	Michigan St. Spartans	-4
23	Southern Miss. Golden Eagles	-1
24	Baylor Bears	--
25	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	--
Dropouts: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Florida St. Seminoles

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

I think GT's drop out is because they didn't do so hot against Duke.  No, I once again have not cast a ballot for UVA.  Moving up, but they wouldn't have made it this week because Rutgers came in 2nd in the preliminary ranking, with UVA 5th.  Consider UVA 29th in my ballot, if you like.  Those darn games against Idaho and Indiana are dragging us down.  Not in the eyes of some voters, however; UVA is ranked 24th in the AP poll (woo!) and is likely to also be ranked when the Blogpoll itself comes out, as 41 blogs have given us a ranking that lands anywhere from 18th to 25th.  (The 18th-place vote comes from Track 'Em Tigers, the SB Nation blog that covers our former uniform pants sister school, Auburn.)

So I'm getting increasingly lonely in my holding out on that particular issue.  Last week - before the FSU game - UVA garnered votes from seven or eight blogs, including VT people Gobbler Country (with whom we will have a Civil Conversation later this week) and - this may come as a surprise to those of you who paid particular attention to the part of last week's Civil Conversation in which was listed a bevy of three-loss-or-worse teams that they felt were better than UVA - Tomahawk Nation.  The bloke who answered that question and the bloke who cast the ballot were two different blokes, however.

Anyway, I promise you this: if we beat Tech, I'm casting a UVA vote, regardless of what my system says to do.

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 So let's check out predictions real quick.  I didn't have that many this week.

- Perry Jones and Kevin Parks combine for about 3.8-4.0 yards per carry.
Nope, they got stuffed, pretty much.  The FSU run defense was as advertised.  By them, not me.  Even if I include Clifton Richardson here, which I was considering doing, we only get to 3.4.

- The UVA rushing game totals about 140 yards.
If you take out the sacks, which you're supposed to do, it's about 95-100.  Not close enough to give me this one.

- Mike Rocco throws more TDs than INTs.....if even any INTs at all.
FSU fans may have been right about the run defense but they were oh so wrong about their secondary, which they hella bragged on and called me a homer when I praised ours in the Q&A.  I'm a blogger.  Of course I'm a homer.  But I also know what I'm talking about, and the FSU pass defense was little better than any other we've seen this year.  Rocco threw a beautiful toss to Superman Jones for his TD; when you let a 5'7" elf catch a quasi-fade route throw, you're doing it wrong.  And he had zero picks.

- Devonta Freeman also gets about four yards a carry.
Freeman had lotsa yards per carry, actually, and besides that the FSU coaches decided to use Jermaine Thomas as the primary back and he had almost five himself.  The run defense was more of a good-when-it-had-to-be kinda deal than actually good.  So I get another nope.

- Florida State has at least one scoring play of 50+ yards.
With apologies to Chase Minnifield, executor of the play of the season so far, I am gonna take credit for this one because I think I was right in spirit.  Bert Reed's 68-yard reception was precisely what I had in mind, and FSU knocked out a couple other 50+ yard plays, one of which got called back on a holding call that was kinda semi-holding.  (That's OK, their TD drive was full of actual holding that went unflagged.)  I'm taking credit for this one, thanking our lucky stars and the aptly named (on that play) Chase Minnifield that it was a 68-yarder and not a 69-yarder, and chalking it up to a backhanded way of giving props to the play because who could foresee that kind of superhuman effort?

- FSU converts a long third down (10 yards or more) by picking up at least twice the necessary yardage.
The Noles only had two such opportunities; one was a 3rd-and-14 that was picked up with a 17-yard pass and one was a 3rd-and-11 that just so happened to be Steve Greer's NO-FG-FOR-YOU sack on E.J. Manuel.  No dice on this, which is good because I hate when this happens.

Two-for-six moves me to 33-of-82 for the season.  And I'm now doing better against the spread (6-4-1) than I am on real score (6-5.)

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OK, Senior Seasons continues to wind down, but playoffs continue for a few.  Here are this week's high school results:

St. John Lutheran 28, Victory Christian 26: Demeitre Brim ran for a 70-yard and an 81-yard touchdown, but his season comes to a close in overtime.  He ran or threw for all four touchdowns, but Victory couldn't get a necessary 2PC in OT.  It also comes out that Brim's shoulder was hurt three weeks ago, but he's been playing through it and not throwing the ball much.

Salem 35, Bayside 21: Anthony Cooper had four catches for 110 yards and a touchdown, but it wasn't enough as Bayside bows out.

L.C. Bird 21, Varina 16: Maurice Canady fumbled on Varina's last-gasp drive, and Varina is denied a rematch in the regional championship with Hermitage.

Buford 31, Jefferson County 0 (C.J. Moore)
Garnet Valley 52, Central Bucks South 48 (Matt Johns)
Nederland 21, Houston Stratford 14 (Kelvin Rainey)
North Cross 26, Norfolk Christian 14 (Moore/Nixon/Wahee/Wynn)
I.C. Norcom 20, Hampton 14 (Jamall Brown)
Hermitage 14, Thomas Dale 0 (Andre Miles-Redmond)

All in all not the kind of weekend you'd hope for.  Especially for Norfolk Christian, upset in the state championship game.  Most other recruits' seasons have ended as well; only Hermitage, Buford, and St. Joseph are still alive.  (St. Joseph, Max Valles's team, didn't play this week, and in fact doesn't play their state championship game until the first weekend in December.  They have a game against in-town public school rival Hammonton next weekend.)

Hermitage will play Bird in the Division 6 Central Region final; if they win, Miles-Redmond will get an early taste of Scott Stadium in the state semifinals.  As for Buford and C.J. Moore, they are now in the state quarterfinals.

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Are you disappointed that the hoops team lost its first game in the Virgin Islands to TCU?  Don't be.  At least, not too badly.  For one thing, they still finished 2-1, and for another, they still got Drexel on the schedule, a reasonably good CAA team, and Drake isn't half bad either.  Losing to TCU won't look good in the committee's eyes, but RPI-wise it wasn't a disaster.  (Although, the way Norfolk State played down there, they might just end up tearing up the MEAC and turning into an RPI boost themselves.)

The offense still needs plenty of work, as the TCU loss and Drexel win (49 points) are perfect evidence of.  But the defense has been nothing short of outstanding in the first five games, and if that continues it'll carry the Hoos a long way.  KenPom's numbers now have UVA as the 12th-best defensive team in the country, and don't be surprised if that kind of success lasts all season.  Of course, the ACC being what it is, right now there are six conference teams in the top 25 in that category.

The weekly RPI tracker has been updated and added to the sidebar for your edification.

Lastly, there's no lacrosse schedule yet, which drives me a little bit crazy even though it's not really time yet, if history's any guide.  (There is a baseball schedule, but I never bothered pointing it out because it's lame.)  However, one more game has been announced: in addition to Cornell in Baltimore (not entirely newsworthy since UVA typically always plays an NFL-stadium game in either Baltimore or New Jersey) the Hoos will also head out to Denver to play Penn at Mile High Stadium or whatever the hell the Broncos play in these days.  So that's cool.  I'm always in favor of this kind of game because it usually, if not always, means TV.  Like last year's game against Penn, this one will also take place after the ACC tournament, or at least, so I'm assuming, as the date is April 27.


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Some programming notes for this week.  Obviously it's a shorter one.  Game preview will go up on Wednesday instead of Thursday because if you think I'm spending all that time putting that thing together on Thanksgiving Day you're nuts.  Thursday posting will be limited to the standard Thanksgiving Day greeting.  I do expect we will have a Q&A session with Gobbler Country on at some point.  This game will not be one in which you can find me on the Twitters, but you should follow @MaizeNBlueWahoo anyway because I'm greedy for followers.  As it's a holiday weekend, take yourself a holiday after the game preview and don't expect much out of me til Sunday or Monday.