game preview: Georgia Tech

Date/Time: Saturday, September 15; 3:30

TV: ESPNUVA

Record against the Jackets: 17-16-1

Last meeting: UVA 24, GT 21; 10/15/11; Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA 17, PSU 16; GT 59, Presb. 3

Line: Georgia Tech by 10

Opposing blog: From The Rumble Seat

Injury report:

Virginia -

OUT:
G Cody Wallace

DOUBTFUL:
WR Tim Smith

QUESTIONABLE:
DE Billy Schautz

PROBABLE:
TE Paul Freedman

Georgia Tech -

OUT:
LB Daniel Drummond
S Fred Holton
RB Charles Perkins

QUESTIONABLE:
RB David Sims

The first road game of the season is a tough one: a trip to Atlanta to play a difficult Yellow Jackets team.  As usual, the main storyline will be Al Groh and his defense against his old team, and it'll be tough sledding because Georgia Tech's D is coming together nicely.  In fact it's threatening to become GT's calling card this season. The offense is still looking for a working combination: Paul Johnson is talking about his quarterbacks in a way that suggests he's not fully onboard with the one he's got, and the running back position has been a veritable merry-go-round.  It's still that wackity triple-option, though, and as ever it presents a tremendous challenge.

-- UVA run offense vs. GT run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 23 carries, 75 yards, 3.3 avg., 2 TDs
Perry Jones: 22 carries, 66 yards, 3.0 avg., 1 TD

UVA offense:
108 yards/game, 3.22 yards/attempt
100th of 124 (national), 8th of 12 (ACC)

GT defense:
120.5 yards/game, 3.71 yards/attempt
66th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)

Who's excited to see how the run game looks on Saturday?  Not this guy!  Let's be fair: Penn State has one of the better front sevens that we'll see this season.  But then, so does Georgia Tech.  The interior line got zero push against PSU's 300-pound defensive tackles last week, and this week they face the mother of all 300-pounders: GT's T.J. Barnes checks in at 6'7", 345.  This guy is a boulder and a half.

The plus side there is that Barnes has been doing exactly what Groh's defense calls for: occupy a lot of space and not much else.  Barnes only has four assisted tackles this year, which means he's probably getting the double-teams he ought to be.  In the end, though, I don't care if he's a 345-pound lump of mud; he'd still be a 345-pound lump of mud, and until our offensive line proves they can handle guys that size, it's safe to assume they can't.

GT has been missing starting linebacker Daniel Drummond all season, and they'll be without him again this game, opening the door for redshirt freshman Jabari Hunt-Days to start at ILB.  They don't seem to be missing Drummond; Hunt-Days is second on the team in tackles with thirteen.  This is basically a classic Groh linebacking corps.  Jeremiah Attaochu on the outside is more or less living up to the preseason hype, and fellow outside backer Brandon Watts has been all over the field too.  The four starting linebackers are four of the top six tacklers on the team, which means that Groh's defense is doing what it's supposed to.

GT's two previous games this season don't hold a lot of useful data.  Virginia Tech's running game is still a work in progress with two new running backs and a revamped offensive line.  It was OK, not great, against GT, but whether that's because GT's defense is good or because VT's running game is OK-not-great is kind of up in the air right now.  For what it's worth, GT fans aren't totally convinced in the efficacy of their run defense, and Presbyterian's Lance Byrd did reach 80 yards and a 4.4 YPC average for the game.

Regardless, I'm even less convinced about our offensive line.  Cody Wallace's absence won't be crippling but does rob us of some playable depth.  But these guys have to get better.  Conner Davis got by and large no push at all against Penn State, and Luke Bowanko is still getting used to blocking after snapping the ball.

Outside of LoVante' Battle's 22-yarder in garbage time against Richmond, we don't have a 20-yard run this year; the longest is a 17-yarder by Perry Jones.  Call it a weird premonition, but I expect that to change this weekend.  Maybe it's the 3-4 defense, which is prone at times to giving up plays when the linebackers make the wrong read.  I think someone, probably Jones, is good for a big play at some point, but outside of that, I have a problem seeing us over 3.5 yards a carry.  The GT defense is too talented and our O-line too unproven to get much more than that.

-- UVA pass offense vs. GT pass defense

Quarterback:
Michael Rocco: 46/70, 65.7%; 569 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; 8.13 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 10 rec., 152 yards, 1 TD
Tim Smith: 7 rec., 108 yards, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
312 yards/game, 7.9 yards/attempt
41st of 124 (national), 5th of 12 (ACC)

GT defense:
164 yards/game, 4.5 yards/attempt
9th of 124 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)

Again the stats aren't all that useful here.  Presbyterian, you know.  GT smothered their passing game, but they should.  Logan Thomas only completed about 55% against GT, so that's a pretty good thing going for them, but then, 55% isn't especially far off his career rate.

The challenge will be for our interior line to pick up on whatever wackiness Groh has up his sleeve in re: blitzes.  The man's a solid defensive coordinator overall but if there's one single thing he does well, it's design blitz packages.  That's going to be on the interior line to recognize and block the right guys.  Pass protection will also improve if Morgan Moses fixes his footwork from the Penn State game.  It looked like he was shuffling around in cement at times, particularly on the play where Phillip Sims was stripped and fumbled.  Can't have any of that this week as Moses will more often than not be assigned to deal with a speed-rushing linebacker.

Being likely without Tim Smith, I think we'll see E.J. Scott and Dominique Terrell split his time.  But I don't think they'll get all his catches.  After two weeks of seeing Jake McGee do a bunch of really cool shit, I'm betting the coaches look at each other and think, "gee, maybe we should use this guy."  Darius Jennings is quickly becoming the go-to receiver, and will probably lead the Hoos in catches by a big margin, but McGee is becoming a weapon.  So far he's done little besides line up in the slot and run deepish routes, and I think he'll keep doing that, and I think Rocco will keep finding him.  He's got the largest per-catch yardage average on the team, and that continues on Saturday.

But Jennings is going to be key.  Scott has been a decent hey-don't-forget-about-me kind of receiver, good at keeping defenses honest.  Terrell has flashed some talent but also some jitters.  Jennings has already put his best foot forward as the go-to guy this season, and without Smith, even more so.  You know I'm pretty pessimistic about the running game, so if the Hoos are going to move the ball, it's on Rocco's shoulders.  He's capable of doing so, and the GT secondary is solid but not shutdown.  They're aggressive and can be burned.  If the UVA game plan is allowed to work to perfection, it'll probably call for establishing Jennings early, and trying a bunch of screen passes early as well to discourage blitzing and keep the linebackers reacting rather than reading.  Rocco will have blitz-read options on most of his plays that let him throw at the blitz, which could mean big yardage for a tight end or RB at one point.  Make no mistake, though: whatever the game plan, if we win, Rocco will have had a big, big day.

-- GT run offense against UVA run defense

Top backs:
Tevin Washington: 28 carries, 160 yards, 5.7 avg., 1 TD
Zach Laskey: 19 carries, 144 yards, 7.6 avg., 1 TD

GT offense:
330.5 yards/game, 5.85 yards/attempt
21st of 124 (national), 2nd of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
74.5 yards/game, 2.37 yards/attempt
18th of 124 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)

Hooray so much for experienced linebackers.  This will be our biggest weapon against the ruthless ground assault that is the Paul Johnson playbook.  The job of the defensive line will basically be to try and hold the line and keep their knees healthy from all the cut-blocking.

(A slight digression.  There are a couple schools of thought on how to defeat a cut block.  One is to step back and try and keep the blocker at arm's length, so that when he goes down for the block, your feet are still free and he only succeeds in taking himself out of the play.  The downside is that it requires going backwards.  The other school of thought is to say "screw it" and try and fall elbow-first on a pressure point.)

At any rate.  Linebackers.  Hopefully one day, Kwontie Moore will be as good as Steve Greer is at reading plays, and his side-to-side speed will be a huge asset in filling the running lanes.  Right now we have Greer, and a couple other guys who've done a nice job at finding the ball and getting there.  Henry Coley had a very good game against Penn State, and Greer, of course, was everywhere.  They'll be absolutely crucial in stopping the option.  They've seen it before, and if they're in the zone and reading plays correctly, it'll keep the frustration to a minimum.

GT, for their part, has been extremely experimental.  Tevin Washington is doing a decent job running the show, but the running back situation is unsettled.  The playing time has been spread out among so many players, it's astouding.  And it's not just Presbyterian garbage time.  Running back David Sims has a stress fracture and missed the Presby game, and GT has been replacing him by committee so far.  Zach Laskey looks like at least part of the answer.  Robert Godhigh and veteran holdover Orwin Smith are the listed A-back starters, but Smith is a little banged-up, too.

We might also see a little quarterback rotation; Paul Johnson has talked about getting some of them on the field.  GT fans get all tingly about redshirt freshman Vad Lee the way a lot of UVA fans do about Phillip Sims, and Johnson might also be looking at two on the field at once; Synjyn Days is both the backup QB and a backup A-back, and will probably be worked in as well.

This is likely to be the usual frustrating nine-minute parade down the field, four yards at a time.  That always happens when you play Georgia Tech.  The question is letting that happen only once.  GT has a good offensive line, easily the best we've seen all year, and they'll challenge the defensive line.  (If we can get Billy Schautz back, it'll be a big help, as he's the most technically sound lineman we have, a real asset in defending this bunch.  (His injury is "lower extremity" though, probably meaning knee or ankle, and if I were the coaches I'd be really, really wary about risking his health against the multitude of cut blocks a DE must deal with.)  The linebackers will likely have some success containing this ground game, but having just the one week of practice makes me nervous.

-- GT pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Tevin Washington: 17/26, 65.4%; 257 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; 9.89 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jeff Greene: 3 rec., 94 yards, 1 TD
Jeremy Moore: 3 rec., 64 yards, 0 TD

GT offense:
169.5 yards/game, 11.3 yards/attempt
3rd of 124 (national), 1st of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
223.5 yards/game, 5.2 yards/attempt
21st of 124 (national), 5th of 12 (ACC)

We were spoiled as hell last year.  Tevin Washington went 2-for-8, in part because our very veteran secondary did a near-perfect job in coverage, using only exactly the manpower needed to deny the pass and helping out with the run otherwise.  And one of those completions was to a running back, Orwin Smith; the other was a pitiful little three yard catch by Tyler Melton.

We're not going to get that kind of performance this year.  The experience is gone, replaced with a bunch of guys who've basically never played against this defense.  50/50 chance we see one of those horrifying plays where some guy in the wrong colors is the only one on the screen because one of the safeties got the run-support itch just a little too hard.

GT has been rather more successful passing the ball this year than in years past.  Washington's completion percentage of 65.4 is quite good for most QBs, but it's much higher than the GT offense usually generates.  Shorter throws are part of the deal there.  Jeff Greene and Jeremy Moore are in a knockdown, drag-out battle to be the featured receiver, and both have one loooong catch and two very short ones.

Defending the pass here involves informing one of our safeties that under no circumstances is he to venture closer than 20 yards from the line of scrimmage, putting the burden of making reads on one guy only.  Receivers who go out on a pattern must always be respected.  They'll have a cornerback on them, but still.  If the linebackers can't make the plays, they can't make the plays, but the free safety should not be helping out.  It's when the free safety goes, "ooo, Elmo help!" that all hell breaks loose.  It's a simple assignment and was executed to perfection last year by Corey Mosley, allowing Rodney McLeod to be aggressive in run support.

It's a good formula.  Can we make it happen this year?  I guess I'm cautiously semi-optimistic.  On the one hand, the secondary played well against Penn State and showed admirable discipline; I'm thinking here of the flea-flicker that Drequan Hoskey covered perfectly.  On the other hand, they're still freshmen and sophomores who've had one week to prepare for this thing they've never seen.  Georgia Tech purposely makes this realm of the game wildly unpredictable, and inexperienced safeties are by their nature equally hard to pin down.

-- Outlook

Georgia Tech is at home and carrying in their back pocket the knowledge that if they lose, the division championship is bye-bye, and only three weeks into the season.  A tough combination for the Hoos.  Also, we're in our all-blue getup, which is ugly.  (I haven't once liked the uniform combos this year.  The lesser of all evils has been the orange-blue-orange from the Penn State game, which is kind of cool-looking but also kind of Syracuse-looking, and includes the orange helmet which I can easily do without.)

At any rate, the environment will be tough.  Very tough.  We probably won't see a tougher one this season until the trip to Blacksburg, and yes, I'm aware the TCU trip is next week.  This is a better UVA team than it's being given credit for, but it has flaws, and this is a likely week to see them exposed.

-- Prediction summary

-- One of UVA's backs has a run of at least 20 yards.
-- Other than that, UVA averages less than 3.5 yards a carry.
-- Darius Jennings has at least three more catches than the next UVA receiver.
-- Jake McGee has the highest per-catch average, again.
-- Georgia Tech puts together at least one drive of eight minutes or more.

Final score: GT 24, UVA 17

-- Rest of the ACC

Wake Forest @ Florida State, 12:00 - Revenge game for the Noles, who'll probably get it in a big, big way.

Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh, 12:00 - The Hokies get a head start on next year's new divisional matchup.

Miami vs. Bethune-Cookman, 12:00 - Whatever.

Maryland vs. Connecticut, 12:30 - The Terps try to top last season's win total.  Are they the team that almost lost to W&M, or the one that raced to a big lead over Temple?

Clemson vs. Furman, 3:00 - Taking this opportunity to point out that Furman's hypocycloid logo is one of the best in all of college sports, and easily the most underrated.

Boston College @ Northwestern, 3:30 - The Wildcats have put together an interesting nonconference slate consisting of the worst BCS teams they could find.

North Carolina @ Louisville, 3:30 - Dangerous game for the Heels; shredded by Tanner Price last week, they now must deal with the very impressive Teddy Bridgewater.

NC State vs. South Alabama, 6:00 - Whatever and ever again.

Duke vs. NC Central, 7:00 - The city of Durham championship.

sportscenter top ten

It's time to count down the top ten plays.  Of the season.  I wish I could do it all Sportscenter-style with highlights and witty commentary, but I don't even have the highlights yet and some of them, I never did.  So you'll just have to see it in your mind's eye.

These are the ten plays from 2011 that I thought were most influential on the season and in getting us to the Peach Bowl.  Keep in mind - there are literally over a thousand to choose from.  So you are highly encouraged to come up with some of your own if these don't satisfy, or you think there's an omission.  A lot of this comes from a quick-and-dirty memory search of my own gray matter - I figured if a play still resonates in December, it was probably that important.  Oh, and they all had good outcomes, or at least, non-bad ones.  So that one time we got totally sacked and threw an interception and fumbled and the other team scored twice on the same play and plus we got a 15-yard penalty for general principles, that didn't make the cut.

So here are this season's ten best:

#10

-- Idaho's overtime two-point conversion attempt falls incomplete.

Lost in the final score, a narrow, 21-20 win for UVA, was that the Hoos basically dominated this game.  I'm not kidding.  We racked up almost 500 total yards, held Brian Reader to 17-of-41 passing, and Mike Rocco was efficient and took care of the ball.  But fumbles, missed field goals, and a blocked punt that was taken back for a touchdown almost turned the game into a disaster.  Idaho scored on their first possession of OT, and like all upstart WAC-snacks who smell a win, went for the all-or-nothing proposition.  But the UVA defense forced Reader from the pocket and then knocked down his pass attempt to preserve the win.  A true team effort.  I almost feel like this one should be higher - we definitely don't go to the Peach Bowl at 7-5 with that loss to Idaho, and who knows what the psyche of the team might have otherwise been like?  The score masked a much better game than appearances would have it, but fortunately, it was only a veil rather than an ugly black cloud.

#9

-- Mike Rocco passes to Tim Smith for 34 yards in Tallahassee

In front of a sold-out and hostile Seminole crowd - it is never any different in Tallahassee - UVA had played an outstanding game on defense but only had a 13-7 deficit to show for it.  The offense had been largely motionless, other than a second-quarter drive capped by a gorgeous Rocco-to-Jones TD toss.  With 1:53 to go, the Hoos needed another comeback drive and a touchdown, or the game would simply go down as a moral-victory-but-there's-no-such-thing.

UVA started at their own 25, but the speed in which Rocco marched the team downfield was stunning.  On 2nd-and-1 on the second play of the drive, he found Tim Smith open downfield for a 34-yard pickup, the longest Rocco pass play of the night.  That hushed the crowd and changed the dynamic of the drive - UVA still had a minute and a half to score and now had the ball on the Florida State 32.  The rest was too easy; Kevin Parks would punch it in three plays later with entirely too much time on the clock, giving UVA a 14-13 lead and setting up one of the wildest finishes to any college football game in recent memory.

#8

-- Chase Minnifield pick-six

Against Duke, UVA was having a very chippy game; it was turning out nastier than anyone had expected, and the score was (controversially) tied, 14-14, at halftime, and Duke would receive the second-half kick.  On the fourth play of the half's opening drive, however, Cam Johnson cam roaring around the edge, abusing Duke's Takoby Cofield for the umpteenth time that day, and forced Sean Renfree into a poor read and a hurried pass.  It was too far ahead of the receiver, and it settled easily into Minnifield's hands, who ran untouched into the end zone to give UVA a 21-14 lead.

Duke would soon tie it up, aided by an out-of-bounds kickoff and a 51-yard pass to the red zone, but the pick-six energized the Hoos, and when the offense finally got a hold of the ball, they would answer the Duke TD with one of their own for a lead they'd never relinquish.

#7

-- Rodney McLeod picks off Danny O'Brien

Playing for bowl eligibility in College Park, UVA had just scored a 3rd-quarter touchdown to take a 21-13 lead, after trailing in the second quarter.  Maryland was trying to respond, and they began their drive with a 39-yard pass play to set themselves up in Virginia territory.  But on second down following that, Rodney McLeod picked off Danny O'Brien to end the threat.

There is often a turning point in a football game, or rather, in this case, a screw-it point.  Maryland's season was already in the toilet, and in fact, they were smack in the middle of a season-ending eight-game losing streak.  UVA scored relatively easily after McLeod's interception, and the game's only other tally was a score-padding field goal early in the fourth.  Psychologically, the Terps were done after McLeod's pick, his first of three, and UVA would have that coveted sixth win for bowl eligibility.

#6

-- Matt Conrath destroys the handoff

It was a dead heat, for me, between this and Conrath's field-goal block that came a few plays later.  I chose this one because it's the single awesomest thing a defensive lineman can do: tackle the quarterback as he's handing the ball off, or even before.  Nobody expects it.  Nobody coaches with that in mind.  Even with a field goal block, teams are trained up on 1) how to avoid it in the first place and 2) what to do if they occur.  It's a waste of practice time to say, OK guys, here's what you must do if the quarterback fails to execute the handoff because there's a bad man in the backfield.

Yet that is precisely what happened against Duke.  The setup: It's a scoreless game, and it's Duke, and much to everyone's chagrin, Duke is only one of two teams that have beaten us all three of the previous losing seasons.  I mean, you hate that VT does it but they're really good.  Duke is Duke.  So it chafes that Duke has been on our case.  UNC, Maryland, Miami, GT - we've beaten them at least once, but not Duke.  So here we are in a scoreless game, the defense has just made a big third-down stop, and Duke punts - and our returner makes a really nutty, boneheaded decision, muffs the punt, and hands Duke the ball in awesome field position.  And they start moving the ball.

Then, on first down, Matt Conrath makes a mess.  He completely disregards his blocker and roars into the backfield, slamming into Sean Renfree as he tries to execute a basic handoff.  Renfree fumbles, Duke recovers - but 2nd and 15 is too much to overcome, and Duke tries a field goal.  Which Conrath also destroys.

The UVA offense then marched smartly down the field, and instead of Duke taking a 7-0 lead, it's UVA with the opening salvo.  Instead of "here we go again" it's "get off my lawn."  The entire sequence, by the way, convinced the Duke coaches that it was Conrath, not Cam Johnson, who needed to be double-teamed, and Johnson spent the rest of the day proving that yes, he needed to be double-teamed too.

#5

-- Perry Jones and the slant-six

Against Miami on Thursday night, UVA was trying to get out of a rut.  In an attempt to salvage the season, Mike London had announced that the QB platoon was no more, and the results thus far into the game had been very positive.  But Miami had just turned a short pass to Tommy Streeter into a 51-yard touchdown, and was threatening to move into the lead, with the score 20-14, UVA.  On the subsequent drive, Virginia faced a critical third down deep in its territory, and the Miami crowd was sensing punt.  So was the Miami defense; and not only that, they were sensing run.  Miami loaded the box to stop what it thought would be a handoff.

But UVA had no intention of running.  UVA's pre-snap motion telegraphed the defense to Rocco, and with a linebacker - Miami's James Gaines - trying to cover Perry Jones in the slot, the read was easy.  Rocco threw the slant on a dart, and the target found bullseye - a beautiful throw.  Gaines gambled on the knockdown and lost, and with no safety help over the top, Jones was free to sprint the final 75 yards to the end zone.  UVA scored on the 2PC to earn a 28-14 lead, and every one of those points later came in handy....

#4

-- Laroy Reynolds on fourth and ballgame

Course, that touchdown was looking awfully fragile by this time.  Miami sliced the deficit in half on the ensuing drive, and a three-and-out drive that started on our own eight-yard-line resulted in fantastic field position for the Canes.  They started just the other side of the 50, and churned their way to the UVA 15, eating up time as they went.  I'm pretty sure 90% of the UVA fanbase was dreading the very idea of overtime; you hate to go when it's you that's blown the lead.

The defense put Miami in its second fourth-down of the drive at the 15-yard-line, and with about two minutes to go, it was basically fourth-and-ballgame.  With two minutes and change left in the game, it was obvious that if Miami failed to convert, even if they got the ball back they'd have precious little time and no timeouts to work with.  If they did convert, they'd be just 13 yards or less from the end zone and able to work at whatever leisurely pace they desired.

Miami called a second straight handoff to Mike James, pulling their right guard and intending to power-run off-tackle to pick up the first.  But Laroy Reynolds was either blitzing that very spot, or read the play quick enough to look like it.  He blew past the tight end assigned to block him and smothered James in the backfield with a perfect tackle.  Miami did indeed get another chance at the ball after UVA picked up only one first down, but Reynolds's play put all the pressure back on the Canes, and essentially preserved the win for UVA.  It would be the first win of a season-making four-game win streak.

#3

-- FSU's Bert Reed doesn't quite haul it in

I'm not going to cheat and call a whole series of plays one for the purposes of this list.  Otherwise the whole FSU drive could go here.  In picking the catch that wasn't, the most disservice is done to Bill Schautz and Drequan Hoskey, whose picture-perfect, textbook defense was responsible for two pass breakups.

But in the wildest finish of the season, how can we pick any other play but the one we stared at for ten minutes?  The circumstances of the play put everyone on opposite sides of sanity; UVA coaches were insisting that the Florida State receiver had made a perfectly good catch, and FSU wanted the catch by their own player overturned and ruled incomplete.  The entire drive had been a Chinese fire drill from the start and generally an example of poor clock-management by the FSU sideline.  Left with no timeouts, and on the edge of field goal range, the Seminole coaches called for a sideline pass.  A quick strike that would see the receiver catch the ball, gain a couple of cheap yards, and his momentum carry him out of bounds, stopping the clock and allowing kicked Dustin Hopkins plenty of time to set up his game-winning field goal.

Bert Reed was the target, and unfortunately for the Noles, Reed wasn't close enough to the sideline.  He dove for the ball with Laroy Reynolds providing quality coverage, and appeared - to the side judge anyway - to have successfully hauled it in.  Inbounds.  The clock ticked on, and expired before FSU could get their FG unit on.  Except - an excruciatingly long review concluded Reed didn't have control of the ball, and called the play incomplete.

The later events - an obscure penalty call on Virginia and a wide-left kick anyway - only served to add to the absurdery that was the final minute-and-six of that game.  But it's the overturned completion, with UVA's coaches herding their players back to the sideline and insisting it was a good catch by the other team, and the three thousand replays over four hours (in football-fan time) before any decision was made, is what really leaves the most indelible imprint.

#2

-- Cam Johnson eats Edward Wright-Baker for dinner

As results go, beating eventual 1-11 Indiana by three doesn't rank too well.  But simply earning that win gave UVA several firsts - first road win for Mike London, first 2-0 start in however long - and had UVA not beaten the Hoosiers after starting the game so strongly, this, like Idaho also, could have been a psyche-killer.

UVA had had a 23-3 lead and then blown the whole thing and then some, finding itself down 31-23 in front of a suddenly delighted Hoosier crowd.  But Mike Rocco had put together a drive that still ranks as one of the season's finest, and capped it with a 2PC to tie the game at 31 - still, 96 seconds remained, and Indiana had driven the ball well enough in the second half that the crowd was plenty confident that they could work their way to field-goal range and seal it up.  Wright-Baker would eventually be replaced later in the season as IU's starting QB, but on this day he was a thorn, and in the second half had discovered how to make plays with his legs.  This latter skill was killing the Hoos.

Cam Johnson, therefore, decided he wouldn't get the chance.  Johnson roared past the left tackle and pounced on the unsuspecting Wright-Baker.  The sack was one thing - it would've forced Indiana to punt and given UVA a shot at winning.  But Johnson didn't only sack Wright-Baker, he ripped the ball free, and didn't even allow it the courtesy of bouncing on the ground.  Johnson landed on the IU 14-yard-line, ball in hand, with the referee emphatically gesturing the change of possession.  It was too fast for normal human eyes to register - first there was a beast in the backfield, and then it was UVA's ball.  Just like that.  Rarely does one single individual play directly lead to a win if it's not accompanied by the clock expiring, but this was the perfect example of such an individual effort.

#1

-- Chase Minnifield hauls ass

This one goes here for sheer hustle.  Kids, this is why you hustle.  It matters.  It really does.

The setup: Bert Reed has just caught a pass from E.J. Manuel that traveled 15-ish yards in the air, and he's busting his butt to travel the rest of them between catch and end zone.  He's beaten his coverage, broken one tackle, and nobody is near him.  End zone is in sight, and Florida State will take a 17-7 lead.  That's not much, but in the context of a defensive struggle, yes it is.  It's like when a pitchers' duel is 1-0 and then suddenly it's 3-0.  It feels like game over.

Chase Minnifield is a hair faster than Bert Reed, though, and he was having none of this.  Minnifield sprinted for dear life after Reed, and caught up to him I mean literally just in time.  Any fraction of a second later and it wouldn't have mattered, but Minnifield was able to trip Reed up, and he came to earth at the 1-yard line.

Three plays later, FSU was two yards further back and kicking a field goal to stretch the lead to 13-7.  At the time, it felt like small consolation.  But the final score of the biggest win of London's UVA career was, as you'll recall, 14-13.  Turns out Chase Minnifield's hustle was the difference between winning and losing after all.

weekend review

This is going to be kind of a short review and also late because I've been spending all day focusing on the positive.  Thinking happy, positive thoughts.  It's days like Saturday where I'm thankful to have two teams in my rooting satchel.  It sucks we lost - really, it sucks that we lost 38-0, I would've been able to just let a 21-14 loss wash right over me - but fortunately it cannot dampen Michigan's win over Ohio State.  That's the bonus - you'd think going 1-1 on Saturday would even things out, but a win over a rival is untouchably delicious.  Nothing can ever ruin that.

Of course, the flipside is that nothing can make up for a 38-point loss to a rival, either, right?  Wrong - we are 8-4 and going bowling.  As I was hoping to be 6-6 at this point, I can't let myself be too disappointed.  I think the bowl possibilities are narrowed down to two: the Department Store Bowl in Charlotte and the Music City Bowl in Nashville, with either Cincinnati or Vanderbilt, respectively, as opponents.  In other words, we're not even stuck in some non-destination hole playing some glorified D-II Sun Belt squad, and there are beatable opponents waiting.  Win this upcoming bowl game to go to 9-4 and I can call it, at worst, the second-best season of UVA football since I arrived on Grounds as a bright-eyed and bushy-tailed first-year.  How can I complain?  Besides the obvious, I mean.

Speaking of the obvious, let's take one last necessary look back on Saturday and then file it forever.  Because we have to tally up the predictions, that's why.  Otherwise, the only analysis you need is HOOS PLAY BAD.  No need to anguish over things like the decision to forgo a field goal - wooo, it would've been 38-3 and besides that VT would've gotten the ball back in better field position than they did so maybe they'd've scored on that drive and then it would've been 45-3.  Hoos play bad.  Turn ball over.  Not run block.  Analyzing that game - so easy a caveman can do it.  Let's analyze predictions instead:

- Either Jones or Parks tops 100 yards rushing.

You heard me: Not run block.

- Mike Rocco completes between 50 and 60 percent of his passes.

16 of 27 does in fact qualify.  Unfortunately, he didn't do the other thing I said he needed to do, which is take care of the ball.  Rocco actually moved the ball very well as long as he was on his own side of the field.  When the Hokies had less ground to defend, they did it very well.

- So does Logan Thomas.

Thomas was 13/21, which is more than 60%, so I get nothing here.  It's the only right call, as UVA failed in general to shut down Thomas through the air.  The two things I most feared came to pass, and you see the result.

- David Wilson runs for 120+ yards.

Make that three things.  Wilson got his yards alright, 153 of them.

- Perry Jones catches at least five. He is Superman. 

Jones caught zero.  Hello kryptonite.

- Whichever QB throws fewer interceptions, wins.

You know how this one went.

Three for six gives me 36-of-88 in the regular season, which is a shade under 41%.  Considering how specific I make these predictions, I think that's not half bad.  6-6 in the score department, though, which literally is half bad, and 6-5-1 ATS.  I have a chance to get over .500 on picks, and I suspect I'll do so if the Hoos win their bowl.

Losing means I didn't get to cast a vote for UVA in the Blogpoll after all.  Maybe next year - or maybe in the final poll after the bowl.  Anyway, this is the ballot.  They're coming later these days because they take longer to do every week.

From Old Virginia Ballot - Week 14

Rank	Team	Delta
1	LSU Tigers	--
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
3	Oklahoma Sooners	2
4	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	-1
5	Michigan Wolverines	-1
6	Boise St. Broncos	--
7	Stanford Cardinal	2
8	Oregon Ducks	-1
9	Wisconsin Badgers	5
10	Virginia Tech Hokies	3
11	USC Trojans	-3
12	South Carolina Gamecocks	8
13	Nebraska Cornhuskers	5
14	Georgia Bulldogs	3
15	Michigan St. Spartans	7
16	Houston Cougars	-4
17	TCU Horned Frogs	-7
18	Arkansas Razorbacks	-7
19	Kansas St. Wildcats	--
20	Baylor Bears	4
21	Clemson Tigers	-6
22	Penn St. Nittany Lions	-6
23	Florida St. Seminoles	--
24	Southern Miss. Golden Eagles	-1
25	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-4
Dropouts: Rutgers Scarlet Knights

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

There's a lot of change because there were a lot of rivalry-game routs, and these rivalry games don't often match up a powerhouse against a patsy, so there was a lot of opportunity to make things happen.

I don't want to be ranking Southern Miss, by the way, but they are 10-2 (and UVA is kind of a marquee win) and the alternative is either Georgia Tech or dipping into the Big East turdbowl.  So there you have it.  And if it's any consolation, Saturday was clearly Virginia Tech's best win of the season - usually I just slot that one in the middle somewhere.  (That's not consolation?  Well, I tried.)

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This marks this year's final installment of Senior Seasons - a few teams are still playing, so I'll toss the results out there if I remember, but only in news bullets.  But have no fear - I expect the 2013 recruiting class to be absolutely outstanding, so next year this ought to be a fun section.

Piscataway 34, Franklin 19: Kye Morgan ran for 158 yards and a touchdown, which pushed him over 1,000 yards in just ten games, but Franklin lost their annual rivalry game and finished 6-4.

Buford 42, Elbert County 13 (C.J. Moore)
St. Joseph 32, Hammonton 3 (Max Valles)
St. Joseph Prep 30, Malvern Prep 14 (Michael Mooney)
Hermitage 10, L.C. Bird 0 (Andre Miles-Redmond)

Only three schools will play next week: St. Joseph and Max Valles, Buford and C.J. Moore, and Hermitage with Andre Miles-Redmond.  St. Joseph won its rivalry game against crosstown public school Hammonton, and next week will play for New Jersey's Non-Public I championship.  Buford and Hermitage are in the state semifinals, Georgia's AA division and Virginia's Level 6.  Hermitage's opponent is Centreville, and the winner plays the winner of Oscar Smith and Battlefield at Scott Stadium.

All three have excellent chances; St. Joseph has outscored opponents 423 to 19 this year.  Hermitage should be favored against Centreville and then would likely have a battle of the titans against Oscar Smith.  Buford has been crushing everyone and is going for its fifth straight title; it would take an upset for them to lose.

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-- I forgot to mention the demise of the soccer teams in their NCAA tournaments.  The men, deprived of their best scorer, didn't get past the first round, losing at Klockner to Delaware, 1-0.  The ladies carried a shutout streak into the quarterfinals (including a 4-0 win over VT) but lost to FSU in the quarters.  Women's sports being what they are (which is to say, way fewer upsets) all four teams in the semis are 1 seeds; UVA was a 2 seed.

-- Someone tell me again why it's the ACC that always gets the bad football rap.  We have nine bowl-eligible teams; the Pac-12 would have seven if one of them wasn't a dirty cheater.  Seven Pac-12 teams have a losing record in-conference, and five overall, or they will once UCLA gets rocked in the Pac-12 championship.  Only five ACC teams have losing conference records, and only three have losing records overall.  And if you tell me that's because the ACC plays one fewer conference game and builds its record up on the nonconference schedule, I'll ask you why the SEC gets a pass on theirs.

At worst, the ACC has been the fourth-best conference this year behind the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 - and the Big 12 is being held together by duct tape and toothpicks.  The Pac-12 has already fired three of its coaches (all in the putrid Pac-12 South) with more potentially on the way.

-- Speaking of fired coaches, it appears that the ACC will get through this offseason without a single coaching change.  That hasn't happened since the 2005-2006 offseason.  Although it's not for lack of trying on the part of the fanbases.  Marylanders are already chomping at the bit, of course, to get rid of Randy Edsall.  Can't imagine why.  And Bostonites want Frank Spaziani gone, but he's not going anywhere.  (Via BC Interruption.)

-- After the talk of being "Oregon of the East" during last year's uniform unveilings (and getting out-Oregonned so hard by Maryland - and come to think of it, VT as well, but much more quietly) that died down fast this year.  UVA skipped two combinations entirely (white over blue and orange over orange, the latter of which THANK GOD) and only used two combinations more than once (orange over blue three times and white over white four times.)  All that hype over fancy new unis and we roll with white on white as much as possible.

Everything else was used just once.  I could go the rest of my life and be happy never seeing blue/blue in any uniform style ever, but the white jersey with orange pants is too sharp to ignore.  And it's a little disappointing to see so little of the classic blue and whites.  There's still the bowl game, though.

-- UVA got very solid representation on the all-ACC teams released today.  I don't think I can complain about any snubs; I guess I would have liked to see Perry Jones (honorable mention) get more consideration than Andre Ellington (2nd team) simply because Jones is a much greater receiving threat than Ellington, but I think overall it's pretty decent.  And ohbytheway, nobody had more players on the first team than UVA did.  Only Florida State tied us, with three.  Here's the breakdown as far as UVA is concerned:

1st team: Austin Pasztor, Matt Conrath, Chase Minnifield
2nd team: Oday Aboushi, Steve Greer
HM: Perry Jones, Rodney McLeod, Anthony Mihota

-- Big basketball game tomorrow.  Big one.  It's kind of a bittersweet moment in history for me; it'll be the first time I've ever cheered against Michigan in anything.  (I've always said that if this ever happened, I'd choose sides based on who needs the win more; that is clearly Virginia.  It'll make up for my answer to Gobbler Country about picking a U-M win over a UVA one on Saturday.)  On the plus side, you can expect a pretty well-informed game preview.

game preview: Georgia Tech

Date/Time: October 9, 3:30 PM

TV: ESPNUVA

History against the Yellow Jackets: 16-15-1

Last matchup: GT 34, UVA 9; 10/24/09 in Charlottesville

Last week: FSU 34, UVA 14; GT 24, WF 20

Line: Georgia Tech by 10

Opposing blogs: From The Rumble Seat

Uniform combination: blue jersey, orange pants

Injury report:

OUT

WR Bobby Smith
WR Tim Smith
TE Joe Torchia

DOUBTFUL - none

QUESTIONABLE

FB Terence Fells-Danzer
C Mike Price

PROBABLE

OT Landon Bradley
WR Kris Burd
LB Darnell Carter
RB Raynard Horne
WR Brian Oden
TE Colter Phillips

Other useful stuff:
GT season preview
FTRS Q&A
Other half
Updated depth chart

Is this the biggest game of the season? No, but ask around and you'll find a faction of the fanbase that wants this one more than any other this year. Any other. In some circles, the game discussion starts and ends with two words: Al Groh. Tech's Paul Johnson hired Groh to install his 3-4 defense, and the results have been mixed so far, giving UVA fans plenty of reason to believe in the chance of beating the ex-head coach.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Groh is Groh. You think Al Groh will throw what the FTRS boys call the Grohfense out the window for the UVA game? Detractors and defenders alike can agree on this: Groh doesn't mix things up for the sake of it. He brought what he knows to Georgia Tech, which means they'll be running exactly the same defense UVA ran for nine years. The same defense Mike London ran as defensive coordinator. You know where I'm going with this.

- Big-time safety help on run defense. GT's passing game has been ineffective all season. Joshua Nesbitt is completing passes at under a 40% clip, and the wide receivers have caught just 15 of Nesbitt's 25 completions for an average of 10.9 yards a catch. That's a far cry from 2009 when Demaryius Thomas was the passing game, and averaged over 25 YPC. Bottom line: there's nothing scary about Tech's receivers Stephen Hill and Tyler Melton, and I'm totally happy to let Ras-I Dowling and Chase Minnifield deal with them and cheat the safeties up to help in run support. The corners should be instructed to stick with their receivers - Dowling and Minnifield make one of the best CB tandems in the league and should have little trouble - and the safeties should crash the line of scrimmage and focus on stopping the run.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- Predictability. So London knows the GT defense. Yup, and Al Groh knows the UVA offense. He even feels confident enough to point out to the media that UVA still (despite the many coordinator changes and the head coaching change) runs a lot of the same stuff Groh ran for Billy McMullen. This is the same style of offense Groh likely preferred. Groh is a wizard on defense, and if Bill Lazor allows UVA to fall into too many patterns, it'll get shut right down. GT's defense may have trouble executing but there's something about knowing what's coming that makes that problem go away.

- Changing to the 4-3 defense. Yes, I worry about this. The 3-4 is uniquely able to deal with Johnson's triple option. Because it already demands the use of a big nose tackle that can clog the middle, it can take away the middle option just by being itself, and with fewer players. That leaves more players to roam the edges, spy the QB and RB, and shut down the running game. It can turn those consistent four- and five-yard gains into one- and two-yarders. The 4-3, being what the majority of college teams play, is what this offense was designed to attack. London and Jim Reid need to find a way to neutralize this inherent advantage. Especially if they're going to insist on using a 245-pound defensive tackle.

- Poor passing game. Nothing invigorates the GT offense more than the ability to dominate in time-of-possession, and nothing facilitates that kind of domination like three-and-outs on offense brought about by incomplete passes. An efficient, well-run passing game won't guarantee victory here, but an inaccurate outing by Verica will likely guarantee a loss.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

I like UVA's chances a lot better without Rodney McLeod - or any of the defensive backs for that matter - on the injury report. I tell ya though: for all that we didn't know about this team following the first three games, we don't know much more after the fourth. It doesn't help that GT is still kind of a work in progress themselves. The Jackets' offense isn't a high-powered Ferrari - it's more like a smooth four-cylinder engine with insanely good gas mileage. Only, one of the cylinders is misfiring, thanks to the lack of a wide receiver to make the passing game go. Mileage may vary. And the switch to the 3-4 is a big shift, as far as these things go. Not quite on the scale of Rich Rodriguez bringing the ninja spread to one of the Big Tenniest of Big Ten schools, but the growing pains are similar at Tech.

Remember, Wake Forest is one of the conference's worst teams, and Tech barely beat their 4th-string quarterback. So this is not the GT of the past two years. Still: we have our own growing pains, and it's still a safe bet that the offense will still have more bad times than good on Saturday.

So....what? Very few outcomes would surprise me on Saturday. GT is a team ripe for a blowout and you know how UVA teams of late have pulled surprise blowouts out of their asses when least expected. So even with that, I'd just shrug and chalk it up to a developing pattern. I'm feeling too wishy-washy about this game to make an actual prediction, so let's put it this way: the outcome that would not-surprise me the most would be a close loss. We're on the road, after all.

REST OF THE ACC

Virginia Tech vs. Central Michigan, 12:00
Boston College @ NC State, 12:00
Clemson @ North Carolina, 3:30
Wake Forest vs. Navy, 6:30
Florida State @ Miami, 8:00
Duke, Maryland: bye week

the recruit: Kevin Green

Name: Kevin Green
Position: ???
Hometown: Petersburg
School: Petersburg
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 195

ESPN: none
Rivals: none
Scout: two stars, #76 QB

Other offers: none

Talk about your mystery recruits. Here we have a guy with no other offers, no evaluations, and no future position. Green didn't really even have a recruiting story, at least not a public one - he's a legacy since his father, Kevin Morgan, played at UVA, and Green wanted to follow in his footsteps. Offer, commitment - done.

Green plays quarterback and linebacker for Petersburg, and on offense he really racks up the yards as a dual-threat guy. Almost 5,000 of them last season, and 39 touchdowns, both passing (24) and running (15.) Six more touchdowns this season in just two games. Suffice it to say, Green is the kind of quarterback, operating in a quarterback's offense, that will be putting up gaudy stats basically every week.

The thing is that Green almost certainly won't be playing quarterback at UVA. With David Watford onboard for that job and plenty of freshmen on the roster, Green would be buried. He was offered "as a football player" and I doubt the coaches even know where he'll end up just yet, or even which side of the ball.

For reasons of both program depth and Green's size, the likeliest candidates are WR, LB, or safety. He'd be tall for a safety, which kind of rules out cornerback. He's light for a linebacker, and the coaches will have to decide whether he's going to bulk up to at least 225 or not. ESPN lists him at 205, so who knows? He's about the perfect size for a receiver, and clearly has the athleticism, but wide receiver is where the coaches are recruiting quite a few players at the moment so I don't think they see Green as one.

So defense is where he'll probably be, and LB or S depending on whether he bulks up or not. Me, I'd prefer safety. Assuming he redshirts, his redshirt freshman year will be a year after Rodney McLeod, Corey Mosley, and Dom Joseph all graduate, leaving zilch at their position except for Green's classmates, and we have absolutely no idea whether or not Kyrrel Latimer will even make it in or Javanti Sparrow will make it back. I have absolutely no way of projecting how well Green will do, given that literally the only data on him is at a position he'll never play. But if indeed he's a future safety, early playing time seems like a rock-solid guarantee.

weekend review

This didn't exactly happen last week, largely for airline-related reasons, but we are so back this week. Recruiting board, high schools, soccer, the works. Stay with me.

First is that recruiting board, and you won't notice much difference. There's only one change, and one notable not-change. Clifton Richardson "firmed up" his commitment, so I got off my high horse and moved him to committed orange.

The not-change is that Curtis Grant is still in the blue section. Before the weekend there was a blurb in the RTD that suggested UVA is out of the running for Grant. Shenanigans. I think you can safely ignore that quote - it's the writer talking, not anyone making the decisions here. Just brush it off as one of those things that makes recruiting such a maddening thing to follow. I'm no insider but really I think there's every reason to believe that UVA fans will have a vested interest in watching that particular press conference, when it happens. Not that Grant will necessarily choose UVA, but UVA will be in it all the way.

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I meant to update the depth chart before the USC game. But I didn't. So I'm doing it now. Your running backs are Keith Payne and Perry Jones - that's a change from before, because those two basically have a death grip on it whereas Raynard Horne used to be listed as one of the starters. Rodney McLeod's name in red signifies his injury.

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High school football: let's check in on the recruits:

St. Christopher's 27, St. S./St. A. 17 - Thompson Brown squares off against Darius Lee. Brown forced a turnover and caught a touchdown in his team's win over Lee's.

Hermitage 27, Lee-Davis 8 - The opener for Diamonte Bailey's squad. 15 tackles for prospect Curtis Grant.

Phoebus 45, Churchland 0 - Caleb Taylor's team dispatches a decently-ranked team with relative ease.

Landstown 12, Green Run 9 - David Dean helps limit the opponent to 12 points, but the offense can't get it done.

Woodrow Wilson 21, Menchville 19 - Clifton Richardson still winless. Rushed for 238 yards, scored a TD on an INT return and threw what would have been the game-tying touchdown had the two-point attempt succeede.

Bayside 21, Cox 9 - Ross Burbank's team now 1-2. Prospect Demetrious Nicholson had three receptions.

I.C. Norcom 52, Heritage 0 - Ouch. Kameron Mack's team on a roll.

Hampton 49, Gloucester 0 - David Watford rolls.

Damascus 27, Quince Orchard 23 - Big win for Brandon Phelps' squad, but mostly without him as Phelps misses the last three quarters with a strained hip flexor. May miss next week.

DeMatha 35, Friendship 32 - DeMatha escapes the big upset.

Stone Bridge 56, Leesburg Heritage 7 - Rob Burns' team is a juggernaut.

L.C. Bird 36, Matoaca 23 - Season-opening win for Anthony Harris.

H.D. Woodson 28, Fairmont Heights 12 - Darius Redman catches two passes in Woodson's first win of the year.

Boys' Latin 21, Archbishop Curley 7 - Another win for Marco Jones.

West Charlotte 48, Independence 33 - Adrian Gamble scores a touchdown, but Independence is off to a horrible 0-3 start. Tough schedule, but still: Independence is a (once-upon-a-time?) juggernaut.

Mt. Lebanon 43, Penn-Trafford 18 - Tim Cwalina is off to a 2-0 start.

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News and stuff happened on the weekend too. Some of it was even kind of important:

- The Pac-10 did what I told them to and suspended the refs from the USC game for blowing the fake punt call. Technically the wording they used was "removed from a future game assignment" but it's all the same thing. The conference did the right thing; that plus their halftime apology is the best we can ask for, so it's time to move on.

- The RTD's Michael Phillips has an interesting take on that, by the way. The gist: it was like the phantom T on Tony Bennett against Maryland when the hoopsters were roaring back to try and take the the lead after trailing all game - there's no guarantee UVA would have won either game without referee interference, but it gives us an out to think so. Phillips calls it a gift to the fans, I say if you're going with that tack it's more of a gift to the coaches. That's like, the worst gift in history, but the coaches get just that little bit more leeway from the fans when we think Rule 2(b) has been activated, and you can never have too much job security in this gig.

- VT very literally got injury added to insult on Saturday with the loss of DT Kwamaine Battle for the season, but he might get a sixth year of eligibility. Battle's only a junior anyway, so he's back next year regardless, but in any case it probably won't affect the Hokies much. Battle was the starter, but his replacement Antoine Hopkins has more game experience. Depth rather than any irreplaceable talent is their loss here.

- Occasionally, I exhort UVA fans not to act like Michigan State fans, something we're at times in danger of doing because we have what might delicately be referred to as "not as good a football team" as VT. In other words, don't obsess over them and don't act like a Tech loss is the same thing as a UVA win. Because this is the sort of idiocy it leads to:

So as the ND game approaches this weekend wear your coolest kicks around campus with the shoelaces TIED (editor's note: Sparty boy is making a lame attempt at making fun of Michigan's Denard Robinson's preference for untied shoelaces) in honor of our great #8, Captain Kirk, and show the world, ESPECIALLY ANN ARBOR, that in East Lansing they TEACH US HOW TO TIE OUR SHOES.

So that's what 20 grand of tuition buys you at Michigan State. And after you learn how to tie your shoes, there's nap time and then cookies and juice! (I believe those are the honors classes.) One nice thing about going to college at Virginia is not having to spend four years with dumbasses. Don't be Sparty, boys and girls.

- The soccer boys remain undefeated after going on the road to Duke and pulling out a tie that could plausibly have been a better result for either team. Duke dominated on the stat sheet, taking eight corners to UVA's three and forcing Diego Restrepo to make eight saves (which is kind of a lot.) But Sean Hiller scored a go-ahead goal in the 86th minute - normally the kind of thing that stands up, except it didn't with Duke scoring less than two minutes later to force OT and the tie. Ominously, Will Bates was subbed out early with an injury that a Sabre observer suggested might be a hamstring.

Next week is one of the biggest matchups of the year: the first game against Wake Forest since Brian Ownby's golden goal dispatched the Deacs from the NCAA tournament.

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Finally, around the ACC for some of the more interesting blog reactions to this weekend's rather unfortunate results in the conference:

BC 26, Kent State 13: BC Interruption bemoans the O-line play, notable because I expected it to be one of the better O-lines in the conference.

Kansas 28, GT 25: Adding insult to insult, Winfield's soul appears bent over with the agony of defeat, and somebody called a penalty on it too.

Maryland 62, Morgan State 3: That's sixty-two (62) to three (3). With that score in mind, what kind of truly horrible-ass game must Maryland's quarterbacks have had to earn a measly B- grade from Testudo Times?

JMU 21, VT 16: Saved the best for last. F4H of Gobbler Country unsurprisingly has selected The Cure for a little post-game easy listening. Read for two reasons: one, F4H is the decent variety of Hokie fan that is given a bad name by the other 97%, and two, you'll find many reasons to be (cautiously) optimistic about the end-of-season tilt.

game preview: USC

Date/Time: Saturday, September 11; 10:30 PM

TV: FSN


History against the Trojans: 0-1

Last matchup: USC 52, UVA 7; 8-30-2008

Last week: UVA 34, Richmond 13; USC 49, Hawaii 36

Line: USC by 19.5

Opposing blogs: Conquest Chronicles

Injury report: none, but Rodney McLeod isn't on the depth chart

This week's uniform: white jersey, orange pants

USC season preview

Ever wonder what it's like to be a MAC school in the early season? Now's your chance. Saturday's game will played in a stadium called the Coliseum - fitting, because last week, against Richmond, we were the lions; this week, it's our turn to be the Christians.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Near-perfection. That's basically what it boils down to. USC is "down" these days, which basically means they're at risk of having a season as poor as UVA's best of the decade. The horror. USC has its weaknesses, but everything in this section assumes that everything UVA does on Saturday is executed to the absolute pinnacle of their ability.

- Healthy Ras-I Dowling. It's a safe bet that UVA has a better defense than Hawaii, which fell outside the top 80 in just about everything last year. So if Ras-I is on the field, I won't sit up nights worrying about USC's receivers not named Ronald Johnson. Johnson is, essentially, a terrific possession receiver who can also stretch the field a bit (though if there's a play missing from the USC arsenal, it's probably the deep bomb) and it'll take a big, athletic corner like Dowling to keep him silent. Chase Minnifield is good but probably not good enough to shut down Johnson. But he and the rest of the secondary can handle the rest of the USC passing attack reasonably well if Dowling is on the field.

- Have a field day through the air. Establishing the ground game against Richmond was a lot of fun, but it won't consistently work here. This isn't I-AA anymore and USC's linebackers are too good to let UVA control the clock with Keith Payne and Perry Jones. The weak point of USC's defense is the secondary, which couldn't come up with a single turnover against Hawaii and let the Warriors sling the ball all over the field. The Warrior receivers had big, big days. Run the ball just enough to make USC respect the play-fake, and throw plenty of fade and curl routes to isolate USC's corners against UVA's receivers. If UVA wins, mark my words the receivers will have a lot of fancy stats to their credit.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- Pretty much by not doing everything exactly right. Coming within two touchdowns would be a moral victory, but not an actual one.

- Same ol', same ol' on special teams. Last week was a special teams disaster: lousy punt coverage, two missed field goals because one kicker doesn't have the leg and the other doesn't have the accuracy, and a blown blocking assignment leading to a failed 2PC that was supposed to be a simple PAT. Ronald Johnson ran a punt back for a touchdown against Hawaii and he'll do so again if things don't shape up here. UVA simply can't afford to take points off the board or give up a lightning-strike touchdown.

- Lousy pass-blocking. I take it as a given that the running game won't be as productive as it was last week, and I do think Marc Verica has the ability to connect with his receivers for the necessary yardage. But not if the USC pass rush is in his grill all game. The Trojans will get their points, no doubt about it, so the one thing that can turn an upset into a loss or a loss into a blowout is poor pass-blocking. USC knows how to take advantage of crappy offensive lines and I'm still not convinced ours can hold up for a full 60 minutes.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

Probably badly. The WhatIf simulator gives UVA less than a 20% chance of a win, which is actually better than I thought. (Two notes: the preseason simulator gave UVA a 5-7, 2-6 record, which is pretty fair. And WhatIf boasts of an 85% success rate in week 1, which is of debatable impressiveness when everyone was playing the closest patsy they could find.) Anyway, that 20% is a lot better than you might expect, but it's still in shocking upset territory. Which we all knew. Like I said, it would take near-perfect execution from start to finish to pull this one off. More likely is a three-touchdown blowout.

REST OF THE ACC

Duke @ Wake Forest, 12:00
Georgia Tech @ Kansas, 12:00
Virginia Tech vs. James Madison, 1:30
Florida State @ Oklahoma, 3:30
Clemson vs. Presbyterian, 3:30
Boston College vs. Kent State, 3:30
Miami @ Ohio State, 3:30
Maryland vs. Morgan State, 6:00
NC State at Central Florida, 7:30

requiem for an era: The Players That Made It Happen, part 2

Last of the series. At some point we'll actually have to stop reminiscing and act like there's present-day stuff going on. Today's lists continue the five-player format. First, we have five that, for whatever reason, never lived up to their potential or their hype. Again, these count down from five to one. There's a darker theme to this list. The last four involve some veiled criticism of some aspect of our program - there are things, some of which are the head coach himself and some of which have nothing to do with him, that hold this program back. For the most part, these players failed to live up because of it.

#33 - Wali Lundy

Here's the one that doesn't involve any sideswipes at anything. You might even be surprised to see him on the list. Lundy had by any account an excellent career. If I'd done a top ten list the other day instead of five, Lundy would be a shoo-in. In his four years here, he played a starring role.

And yet, it felt like it could have been so much more than just a "role." Lundy's star shone brightest early on. It dimmed as time passed, and Alvin Pearman gradually moved into the lead part. As a freshman in 2002, Lundy was the primary running back and kick returner and second-leading receiver, too, and made national headlines with his four-touchdown effort in the bowl game. At that point, the sky was the limit. 1900 all-purpose yards as a freshman is the sort of thing that launches Heisman campaigns two or three years later.

But the next season, though Lundy was still the primary running back and thisdamnclose to a 1,000-yard campaign, Pearman and not Lundy was the first receiving option out of the backfield; in Lundy's junior year, Pearman overshadowed him entirely and crossed the 1,000 yard mark that Lundy couldn't. By 2005, Pearman had graduated and Lundy returned to his role as primary running back, but couldn't even top 600 yards, even with a line populated by future NFLers. (By comparison, the O-line of 2008, infamous for its lack of runblocking skills especially early in the season, helped Cedric Peerman to 200 more rushing yards than Lundy had in '05.)

It's tough to include Wali Lundy on a list like this, but it's also a bit disappointing to think of the difference between the reality and what we had in our imaginations as the clock ticked away on a 24-point win over West Virginia in 2002.

#4 - Anthony Martinez

The blow is cushioned here, because Marques Hagans turned out to be a pretty damn good player, and a decent answer to the argument that Groh couldn't develop quarterbacks. But Martinez is why that argument exists. Martinez was the it guy when he committed. The future. Especially since, at the time he committed, Matt Schaub and Bryson Spinner were busy playing hot potato with the quarterback job, and a few days later, Florida State would paste the Hoos in Charlottesville.

Martinez sat on the bench for most of two years, coming in for a little backup duty in 2003. No biggie; Schaub was busy rewriting record books. But when 2004 rolled around and he found himself fourth on the depth chart, he vamoosed. Normally the transfer of your fourth-string quarterback doesn't make many waves, but the potential alone that he had when he came in would have landed him even higher on this list. That is, if not for the probability that had he played, he would have basically been Marques Hagans anyway.

#95 - Jeffrey Fitzgerald

ARGH. Fitzgerald was a freshman All-American in 2006. A beast. That year, he outshone junior Chris Long - Fitzgerald led the team in sacks, TFL, and fumbles recovered, and actually even managed to be second in interceptions too. He was similarly spectacular in 2007 as a sophomore. This season, he was a beast for Kansas State instead. Fitzgerald left the team for academic reasons - not because the NCAA said he was ineligible, but because UVA did.

We have a pretty good defensive line right now, but we're thin at DE and surely Fitzgerald would look pretty good there this year. He picked up at K-State right where he left off and led the team in sacks, TFL, fumbles forced - you know, all the stuff. Even returned an INT for a touchdown, just as he once did here. UVA fans will not soon forget what might have been here - though Fitzgerald did indeed pick up where he left off, missing a season couldn't have helped his development. What if he didn't have to leave off?

#32 - Keith Payne

"No Payne, no gain." That was the clever refrain occasionally heard when UVA fans would discuss Payne and what he'd bring to the program in the future. It seems like ages and ages ago, but once upon a time, Payne had UVA fans acting like schoolgirls who just made eye contact with a Jonas Brother. It reached a fever pitch after Payne's high school team won a state championship, in large part because of his four touchdowns, against Percy Harvin's high school team. Big things were expected, despite Payne's lack of offers outside the state and mediocre guru ratings. Big, big, big things. This was the guy who was going to put the team on his shoulders and carry it back to prominence.

Unfortunately, we tend to overrate our talent, sometimes egregiously. Payne turned out to be slow, and not particularly bruising. He fell further and further down the depth chart as time went on, and finally called it quits earlier this fall. It's not his fault, really, that he didn't live up to the hype; it just turned out that the hype didn't match the actuality.

#7 - Peter Lalich

The number says it all. Lalich was another big-time quarterback recruit. Highly rated by everyone, and UVA fans were positively thrilled when Lalich made an early commitment to Virginia. Though the offers kept rolling in all summer, he didn't budge. We had our quarterback of the future, and that is really one of the most comforting thoughts a fan can have.

But we didn't account for stupidity. Despite being on probation for underage drinking and having some pretty easy probation terms (DON'T DRINK), this proved too difficult. Lalich admitted to the judge he had continued to drink, while also expressing that he was under the impression he was only supposed to not get arrested. This was such a serious crime that the judge came down and.....extended his probation. Whoop-de-doo.

Grownups can be pretty stupid too, though. Sometimes more. Al Groh was perfectly happy to keep his starting quarterback on the team, given that Lalich's crime was nothing more than the same shit that happens in five hundred places every Friday and Saturday night in Charlottesville.....and then telling the judge the truth about it. Craig Littlepage saw things differently, and stepped in to remove Lalich from the team. And he wonders why the football team is 3-9.

OK, so enough reminiscing. Not all of Al Groh's players are no longer on the team. Many of them even have talent. Next year, some new coach will be trying to take Al Groh's players and do something better than 3-9 with them. The next list will look at next year's building blocks. This isn't necessarily a list of the best players. You won't find Matt Conrath or Ras-I Dowling. This is: who has the talent and needs to make use of it?

#18 - Kris Burd

The receiving corps was - let's see, how can I put this delicately? - horrendous this year. Damn it when Heather Dinich is right. Burd will be a junior next year, and given that he was the only receiver to show consistent competence for a full 12 games, he'll be looked at to continue his improvement and step up to catch a few more balls next season. Burd is not the fastest or the flashiest, but he is the best route-runner and the only receiver this year who showed the ability to get open both inside and outside.

#63 - Austin Pasztor

Last year, Pasztor stepped in as a true freshman and you could see the difference right away. The impact on the run-blocking was measurable, even to the layman's eye. He had his share of struggles this year along with the rest of the line, but when the pass rush reached Sewell, Pasztor generally wasn't the guy looking backward apologetically at his quarterback with his hands on his hips after the whistle. There will be more senior players than Pasztor on the line next year, but Big Canada should bring the combination of experience and talent that will desperately be needed to help anchor a faltering unit.

#56 - Cam Johnson

Johnson has been a little bit of a tweener so far. Too small to play DE in the 3-4 and not really quick enough to take on all the responsibilities of the OLB. But a new coach might mean a new defense. If we switch to a 4-3, Johnson would make a terrific defensive end. If not, Johnson still has some terrifying pass-rush skills that can be made use of. He may or may not become a three-down player - more power to us if he does - but at the very least his ability to rush off the edge is a big asset.

#28 - Rodney McLeod and #40 - Corey Mosley

I'm cheating here and stuffing two players into one category. Mosley lost his starting job midway through the season to Brandon Woods, who was a fine player other than his annoying tendency to bite on play-fakes. Woods won't be around next year, so the safety position belongs to these two, and if I never see either one ever again try to tackle someone with their shoulder it'll be a blessing. They're rightfully highly regarded and I expect them to have the middle of the field on lockdown next year. Just - please tackle with your arms.

#53 - Steve Greer

Greer is good. Very good. He even (for the most part) held his own and didn't get blasted into the secondary by fullbacks with thirty pounds on him. He has a chance to be special, and next year would be a great time to start.

That list was written with next year in mind; this one, with the two or three after that. Here are the players who will hopefully be the long-term difference-makers: Al Groh's final legacy. This is a lot more speculative and highly based on my own opinion rather than anything concrete.

#39 - Tucker Windle

Windle, as a true freshman, played his way from the bench all the way to the starting lineup this year. He wasn't by any stretch an every-down player, nor did he rack up the tackles, but there he was, leapfrogging older players and starting the Virginia Tech game in place of an injured Darren Childs. Having spent this season proving his talent as compared to the competition, Windle could be penciled in as a starter as soon as next year if the 3-4 sticks around, and though Greer has a head start, Windle might very well catch up when all's said and done.

#?? - Kevin Parks

Ladies and gentlemen, the best high school running back in North Carolina history. Parks puts up eye-popping stats on a powerhouse team. His running style has been described as similar to a bowling ball, and he's about that tall, too. While it's perfectly fair and legitimate to warn against falling into the Keith Payne trap, Parks nevertheless is a determined runner who appears to compare favorably in style to Mike Hart - only the leading rusher in Michigan's history.

#21 - Dominique Wallace

To be honest, I hardly even know why. Wallace's season was cut short due to injury, and he should be eligible for a medical redshirt. And he was only averaging three and a half yards per carry. But Wallace has always struck me as a guy with shoulders wide enough to carry a program and knock linebackers over in the process. Running back is my favorite position and Wallace is my favorite kind of running back. I think if he's healthy next year and ready to go and the offense is right, Wallace has a great shot at a feature role.

#99 - Brent Urban

To my mind, the defensive end of the future. Urban took a redshirt year this year but Groh thought highly enough of him to bring him on all the road trips. There are a couple pretty talented players ahead of him on the depth chart, but he should be able to work his way into the picture and be a major impact player when his turn comes.

#?? - Morgan Moses

Maybe? As likely as not, Moses is a candidate for the next coach's version of the first list. What might have been. But if he qualifies, and if he maintains his commitment despite all his favorite coaches getting fired, and if he stays eligible at UVA, the mammoth offensive tackle is just what the doctor ordered to fix the offensive line.

With that, we wrap up the series. There's soccer and basketball to get up into, not to mention a coaching search and all the nuttiness that surrounds it. And before you know it, it'll be lacrosse and baseball season. Time does fly.