FOV Cavalier of the Year #3/#4

From Old Virginia celebrates its birthday (a bit late this year) in a unique way: by recognizing one of Virginia's student-athletes as the Cavalier of the Year. What are the criteria for the award? You decide; that's the beauty. I nominate the 12 athletes that I think have been the most outstanding during the latest season of UVA athletics, and provide a short summary of their accomplishments. You choose the winner in a poll that goes up after all 12 have had their moment in the spotlight. The full list of nominees is here.

 Over the next few weeks, two athletes at a time will be profiled, and you'll hear about what they've accomplished while representing Mr. Jefferson's University this year. The athletes are presented in a totally random order so as to hopefully not imply any endorsement one way or another. Athletes from all fields are considered; the point is to emphasize that UVA is about excellence across the entire department and doesn't shortchange its so-called non-revenue sports simply because they don't make headlines. Today's athletes: Morgan Brian and Leah Smith.

Morgan Brian - Women's soccer - Midfielder

Team accomplishments:

-- College Cup runner-up

Personal accomplishments:

-- World Cup winner with Team USA
-- MAC Herrmann Trophy winner (2nd award)
-- Mary Garber Award winner as ACC's top female athlete
-- Top Drawer Soccer women's Player of the Year (2nd award)
-- US Soccer Young Female Athlete of the Year
-- NSCAA first team all-American (3rd award)
-- 1st overall selection in NWSL draft
-- VaSID State Player of the Year (2nd award)
-- IMP Award for UVA female athlete of the year
-- ACC all-academic women's soccer team (3rd award)

Paige Selenski remains the only four-time nominee for a Cavalier of the Year award, but Morgan Brian would've easily done the same if she'd played enough during her sophomore season.  Alas, she missed half the NCAA season because she was busy winning gold for the national U-20 team at the U-20 World Cup.

This year her national team obligations didn't get too much in the way of her schoolwork.  As you might guess from the completely absurd list of accolades for Best at Everything, above.  She's the fourth repeat winner of the MAC Herrmann Trophy (soccer's Heisman) and only the second repeat winner of the Top Drawer Soccer thing.  Oh, and a World Cup, let's just casually throw that out there.  And how many athletes with trophy piles thirty feet high also win honors for their work in the classroom?

Her freshman year, she was also co-winner of this blog's Cavalier of the Year award thanks to a Facebook campaign (I also gave it to Mike Scott as the runaway choice of people who didn't click through from Facebook), and in her FOVCOY profile I wrote: "She's the first UVA women's soccer player to win the national FOY award, and it's pretty clear UVA has itself a bright rising star for a few years to come."  The way Brian has gone the past few years, I think it's one of my better predictions.  The Facebook campaigners might have been a little ahead of themselves, handing Brian an FOVCOY win in her "least deserving" year, because after a four year career and all that stuff she's won, she's become very much the pride of UVA in ways that no other recent athlete can really say.  I don't really campaign - much - for a winner of this award, but it's my un-humble opinion that Morgan Brian is UVA's top athlete in the FOV era - and for who knows how much before that?

Leah Smith - Women's swimming - Freestyle

Team accomplishments:

-- 5th place at NCAA championships
-- 8th straight ACC title

Personal accomplishments:

-- National champion in 500-yard and 1,650-yard freestyle
-- National 7th place and all-American in 200-yard freestyle
-- ACC champion in 1,650, 500, and 200 freestyle and 800-yard free relay
-- Undefeated all year in 500, 1,000, and 1,650-yard freestyles
-- NCAA, ACC, UVA record holder in 500-yard freestyle
-- ACC and UVA record holder in 1,650 freestyle and 800 free relay
-- World University Games gold medalist in 400-meter freestyle and 800-meter free relay
-- All-ACC academic team

First of all, do you notice a pattern here?  So far we've covered several athletes who are literally - by some measures or by all of them - the greatest to play their sport at UVA, and they've been academic honorees too.

Leah Smith is no different.  Only a sophomore, she's already not only one of UVA's best-ever swimmers, but quite literally the greatest female collegiate swimmer ever, at least where the 500-yard freestyle is concerned.  That's the title that comes with the record, after all.  She's also rewriting ACC record books with a fury.  The swimming program is going through a rough patch on the men's side, but you wouldn't know it by looking at the women; they just came off their best-ever season with a fifth-place finish nationally and Leah Smith leading the way.

This summer she and a few teammates went to the World University Games and came back with more gold-colored hardware, and she's nowhere near done as her next stop is the World Championships in Russia.  UVA has had some outstanding swimmers - Lauren Perdue comes immediately to mind - but it sure looks like Leah Smith will stand head and shoulders above the crowd when she's done.

catching up

Let's pretend for a minute that this is a UVA blog and that we should talk about a few UVA things that have gone on.  Not training camp, mostly; it's never been my style to ruthlessly dissect every nugget, because most of them are the same claptrap every year.  Defensive coordinators talk about their aggressive defense; somebody is "really making his mark" and then promptly disappears the moment the games begin; the schemes are "adding new wrinkles" or "focusing on the basics" and either is an improvement.  Like clockwork.  I prefer to wait til it's all over and then sift through the results.  So maybe a few football things, but not all.

-- The Maryland lawsuit saga is finally over, with both sides agreeing basically not to bother each other any more and no more money changing hands.  The ACC has withheld about $31 million, and agreed not to go after any more in exchange for Maryland not trying to get any of it back.  One Sabreite theorizes, based on whatever source he has, that the settlement has to do with a future ACC Network, and the lawsuit being a real drag on those plans because the ACC would've had a hard time calling itself damaged by the loss of Maryland while at the same time firing up the money machine.  

That may be, but I have a simpler (albeit not mutually exclusive) theory: now that Maryland's officially gone, collecting any further damages requires actually being written a check by Maryland rather than simply not giving them any money.  This was unlikely to happen without an order from whatever was the highest court that deigned to hear the case following the usual lineup of appeals, which means that if the ACC really wanted to pursue this, they probably weren't getting paid until like 2018.  Maryland's case was always tenuous and slightly nonsensical - it was based on the idea that since they didn't vote for the higher exit fee they shouldn't have to pay it.  Accepting that argument would more or less require any private organization to have unanimous consent of its members to do anything at all, so it was bound to go nowhere fast.  Maryland had an excellent incentive to just let the whole thing drop.

-- I include this football article mainly to point out the likelihood that the Hoos will have neither Dominique Terrell nor Jay Whitmire this coming year.  Best guess: the coaches will do everything they can to get Whitmire in the lineup only if they get the notion that he won't get a medical redshirt (which would give him a 6th year of eligibilty.)  If they think he can get the NCAA waiver, he'll sit the year.

-- This is an excellent article, I think, on freshman guard B.J. Stith.  B.J. has some unique challenges in front of him, following in dad Bryant's footsteps at UVA, and you really get the impression that both of them understand the nature of it.  And that B.J. is more than mature enough to handle it.

-- Speaking of handling things, Evan Nolte went out and did silly college things and we now get to know about it because he's a basketball player and not just some dude.  Actually the story is sort of funny.  CPD went easy on him, which is nice.

-- ESPN released their "Big Monday" schedule (I think Monday's kind of an annoying day for the big weekly hoops showcase, but whatever) and guess who leads the ACC in appearances?  UVA has games featured against UNC, Pitt, and Syracuse.  Only UNC has as many as three games featured.  Duke and UNC will still have their rivalry hyped to the moon and back, but still.

-- Cleveland is becoming the home of UVA sportsters of all types.  Tim Smith signed with the Browns last week; this sees him join Joe Harris, of course with the Cavaliers, and Kyle Crockett pitching for the Indians with Mike Papi in the Indians' system with middle-A Lake County.  Smith's chances of making the Browns' final roster are certainly slim, but exposure is exposure.

Cleveland is all well and good, but personally I'm having even more fun following the exploits of Artie Lewicki (middle-A West Michigan) and Whit Mayberry (high-A Lakeland) in the Tigers' system.  Both are pitching very, very well, in case you were wondering.

what went right

In a 2-10 season, very little.  But we're going to try and put on a smiley face and see if there weren't a few nuggets of goodness here and there.  It's kind of a fake smiley face, mind you.

Also, as good as Brent Urban was this year, we're going to limit it to things that can be applied to next year.  That way there's no false hope.  Nope, nothing but real optimism in this post.

Kevin Parks

Parks recorded the first 1,000-yard season by a UVA back since Alvin Pearman in 2004.  This is a pretty nice individual achievement.  I'm going to break my optimism rule, though, by pointing out that it was largely due to not having to extensively share carries.  Several seasons since then, there would've been a 1,000-yard rusher if the carries had not been split, and that 2004 season almost had two such accomplishments, with Wali Lundy falling 100-and-some short.  Even the much-maligned Michael Johnson looked awfully good that year.  UVA had a powerful rushing attack in 2004.

Still.  The more-overarching point to this is that Steve Fairchild deserves a pretty good deal of credit for this.  Parks is a solid back with good vision and balance and he hits a hole pretty quick.  And, obviously, highly durable.  But he's also thoroughly unexplosive; he had just one run all season over 50 yards, and in seven of twelve games, didn't pass 20 on any one run.  This means he can't pad out his stats by being bottled up all game and then bursting through for one huge run to make the whole day look good.  In order for Parks to rack up yards, he has to do it on a lot of different plays, and he needs good blocking to do it.

And this was an offensive line that lost most of its physical battles.  So how to get an unexplosive back running behind an unproductive line to the 1,000-yard marker?  Schemes.  Fairchild's playbook deserves much of the credit for the accomplishment.  It's why when the whole fanbase is giving him an F-minus, I give Fairchild a C.  I had as much hate and discontent as anyone over things like short-side sweeps on 4th-and-2, but we have to apply Sherlock Holmes's maxim here.  When you've eliminated all else, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.  Parks didn't get to 1,000 yard by racing away from defenders and he didn't get there because the offensive line blew open holes for him.  What remains is Fairchild, however, unpopular a conclusion that may be.

Anthony Harris

Actually this sort of breaks another rule, the one about being able to apply this stuff to next year, because seasons like Harris's regress to the mean most of the time.  Still, you just can't knock the nation's interceptions leader.  The problem with a safety, unfortunately, is that a good one cannot make a bad defense good, but a bad one can make a good defense bad.

So the defense as a whole didn't really follow suit.  But a guy with instincts like Harris's, but with 12 extra games under his belt, ought to be a force on the field next year.

Eric Smith

Smith was a true freshman on the offensive line, which at times went about how you'd expect.  Georgia Tech was a particular case, in which Smith had to go up against Jeremiah Attaochu all day and spent the whole day eating Attaochu's cleats.  Sometimes he was just freshman-y.

Sometimes, though, he was fantastic.  Clemson's Vic Beasley finished the season with 12 sacks, but never recorded one against Smith and UVA.  Smith had a good game against VT as well, and over the course of the season, the good outweighed the bad.  UVA has a good one in Smith, who could be the left tackle for the next three years.

Linebackers

I asserted early in the season, here and on TheSabre too, that I thought Daquan Romero should be the top candidate to lead the team in tackles.  I ended up being off by two; Henry Coley nudged him out 91-89.  Both Coley and Romero showed impressive instincts this year; Romero was particularly excellent at sniffing out and blowing up screen plays.

Combined with Harris, these two will give UVA more quarterbacks on defense next year than it knows what to do with.  Their ranginess gave Jon Tenuta confidence enough to use his third linebacker spot on Max Valles, who couldn't do much more than pass rush.

Eli Harold

Not only did he pile up eight sacks, he averaged 10 yards on them.

******************************************

There are a few honorable mention names that don't really qualify as full bright spots.  David Dean piled up very nice numbers for a DT but generally needed Brent Urban next to him.  Without Urban, teams tended to smother Dean.  Hopefully next year as he becomes an upperclassman he'll be the guy opening up a lane for his neighbor.  Daniel Hamm had that one really nice game; pity he got relegated to the back of the bench anyway.  Khalek Shepherd, when healthy, was a nice change of pace back.  Urban, of course, was outstanding, and his loss probably cost UVA a win somewhere along the line.

Everything else that happened pretty much earns a D at best.  And if there's a grade lower than F-minus-minus-minus, I'll hand it out to the quarterbacks and receivers.  Can you get a Z-minus?  At least, though, a few players kept us interested.  Bravo to that.  I have every confidence this team can show the progress it needs to double its win total next year.

game preview: Clemson

Date/Time: Saturday, November 2; 3:30

TV: ESPN

Record against the Tigers: 8-37-1

Last meeting: Clem. 34, UVA 21; 11/21/09, Clemson

Last weekend: GT 35, UVA 25; Clem. 40, Md. 27

Line: Clemson by 18

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT - OL George Adeosun, CB Maurice Canady, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, DT Brent Urban, S Wil Wahee

DOUBTFUL - none

QUESTIONABLE - none

PROBABLE - OG Conner Davis, K Ian Frye

Clemson:

OUT - DB MacKensie Alexander, OL Patrick DeStefano, DT Kevin Dodd, RB Tyshon Dye,  LB Kellen Jones, WR Charone Peake, CB Garry Peters, DT Carlos Watkins

DOUBTFUL -

QUESTIONABLE -

PROBABLE - RB Zac Brooks

What were you doing in 1999?  I'd guess your life was a lot different back then.  Three presidential terms have come and gone since then, and then some.  According to my high school yearbook, the Sega Dreamcast came out then.  This was 14 years ago.  I bring this up because the next time Clemson visits Charlottesville will be 14 years from now: 2027.  That's when V for Vendetta takes place FFS.  This is the brave new, stupid ACC.

Of course, Clemson might be a poor example of a team we should play more often, given the sound thrashing they're about to lay on our football team.  This week will put a merciful end to the season, afte which point the team will perhaps be playing for nothing more than to save their coach's job.

-- UVA run offense vs. Clemson run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 144 carries, 614 yards, 4.3 ypc, 9 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 38 carries, 248 yards, 6.5 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
162.63 yards/game, 3.86 yards/attempt
92nd of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

Clemson defense:
144.13 yards/game, 3.79 yards/attempt
41st of 125 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

The likely return of Conner Davis is a small piece of good news for a running game that proved mostly impotent against Georgia Tech.  UVA has tried a lot of combinations, but this one, with Davis at LG and Whitmire at RG, has proven to be, on balance, the best of an unpalatable array of choices.

The drawback is that Luke Bowanko's snap issues are returning.  Part of the reason he makes a better guard than center is because of his erratic shotgun snaps, which tend to be high and throw off the timing of the read-option as well as just plain regular runs out of the pistol.  When your main back is Kevin Parks, whose acceleration isn't top-level stuff, it makes everything run a tick slow, and that in turn just piles up the issues on an offensive line that has a tough time as it is with holding blocks for long enough.

Adding to the difficulties is that bane of the UVA offense, a quality defensive tackle.  For Clemson it's Grady Jarrett.  They also have a pair of excellent linebackers in Spencer Shuey and Stephone Anthony, the two leading tacklers.  Two-thirds of the way through the season and they already have 78 and 80 tackles, respectively.  I'm less impressed by SLB Quandon Christian, and I think UVA would have more success running to that side than the other.  But Clemson's defensive line is more than good enough to cover any weaknesses among the linebackers - not that there are many.

Other than an inexplicable meltdown against Syracuse and the opening game against Georgia, teams haven't been real successful running the ball against Clemson.  It's unlikely ours is the team to break that trend.  I don't think Parks will manage more than 60 yards, and the rest of the running attack will fall in place behind.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Clemson pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 191/314, 60.8%; 1,715 yards, 7 TDs, 9 INTs; 5.46 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 31 rec., 265 yards, 2 TDs
Kevin Parks: 29 rec., 285 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
219.9 yards/game, 5.3 yards/attempt
124th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Clemson defense:
230.6 yards/game, 7.4 yards/attempt
81st of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

Why is Clemson looking upwards in the Atlantic Conference race?  Because of the 444 yards they gave up to Jameis Winston.  David Watford isn't Winston and has nothing close to the surrounding talent, but this remains the weaker point of Clemson's defense.

Actually, it doesn't mean they're not dangerous, though.  Clemson's 29 sacks are tops in the country, and their 13 picks are tied for 8th.  Cornerbacks Bashaud Breeland and Darius Robinson have three picks apiece, and speed-rushing DE Vic Beasley has ten sacks.  GT's Jeremiah Attaochu abused right tackle Eric Smith, sometimes simply by juking him without ever being engaged in a block, and Smith will have his hands full again; no doubt Clemson paid attention to the film and won't bother lining up Beasley across from Morgan Moses.

Clemson, though, is also prone to allowing the big play.  They sit near the bottom of the national rankings in this regard.  That means if UVA is even going to keep this thing close(ish), Tim Smith needs to repeat his performance of last week.  Having Jake McGee back will be a big plus, but Watford needs multiple options to stretch the field or there just won't be any point to this at all.  It's Smith who has emerged as a downfield threat - not in terms of the one big lightning strike, but he can create 20, 25-yard plays.  Consistency is a problem, of course, as he's yet to really do anything two games in a row this year.

Watford is likely to have a tough time with this pass rush.  Consider it experience for the VT game.  Clemson averages more than 3.5 sacks a game, so predicting three, as I was planning on doing, starts to look pretty weak; let's say four.  I think Watford can continue to top 200 yards and the Hoos should be able to move the ball in fits and starts, but expecting a repeat of last week would be too much.

-- Clemson run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Roderick McDowell: 119 carries, 607 yards, 5.1 ypc, 2 TDs
Zac Brooks: 47 carries, 234 yards, 5.0 ypc, 2 TDs

Clemson offense:
175.88 yards/game, 3.94 yards/attempt
87th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
182.0 yards/game, 4.56 yards/attempt
84th of 125 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

Tailback Roderick McDowell is a decent back, but let's face it, even as the starter he's essentially Tajh Boyd's change of pace.   A great deal of the Clemson run game is the read-option run between Boyd and McDowell, and Boyd has 72 carries for 334 yards once you take away sacks.

In that sense it's a good deal for us that the defense has been seeing the read-option in practice.  The basics of defending it are to do one of two things: have your defensive tackle kick some ass while the DE pops out to take the QB (but there's no Urban) or crash the DE to take the RB and "scrape" the linebacker outside.  I have, however, no idea what Jon Tenuta is doing with linebackers these days, given the strange appearance of this week's depth chart.

One thing seems sure: Max Valles as anything other than a situational pass-rusher seems like a bad idea.  Valles is inexperienced and it showed badly against GT; against the read-option I'd rather stick with the experienced and trustworthy Romero and Coley.  And if Tenuta blitzes up the middle, that's great except that Boyd will probably just keep and head outside for a big gain.

Clemson will get their yards here; they've been pretty successful all season without being spectacular.  Steady is the word, as the run game gets its share of room just from teams hanging back, understandably scared of the pass.  I'm not too worried about there being a big play here, but there's no reason the Tigers shouldn't just continue to be able to do what they do, which is pick up five yards whenever they want to.

-- Clemson pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Tajh Boyd: 168/263, 63.9%; 2,243 yards, 17 TDs, 5 INTs; 8.53 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Sammy Watkins: 58 rec., 813 yards, 5 TDs
Adam Humphries: 30 rec., 368 yards, 2 TDs

Clemson offense:
319.6 yards/game, 8.1 yards/attempt
36th of 125 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
211.8 yards/game, 6.6 yards/attempt
39th of 125 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

No Nicholson, no Canady, going against Sammy Watkins and Tajh Boyd.  There's no need to overthink this.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 2.5
UVA pass offense: 3.5
UVA run defense: 3.5
UVA pass defense: 1

Average: 2.63

-- Outlook

For the cliff notes, just reread the pass defense segment.  I cannot think of a single reason this should go well.  It's possible to look at UVA and see a team scrapping for a win and continuing to improve but tragically coming up short each time.  It's also possible to see a reeling, injury-riddled, often undisciplined team with unsolvable weaknesses, going up against a legitimate top-ten team in the country.  The improvement might just result in one win, maybe against Carolina or VT's putrid offense.  For now, Tivo will come in handy should I want to see any play in particular; I'll be watching Michigan-MSU.

-- Prediction summary

-- Kevin Parks fails to reach 60 yards on the ground.

-- David Watford passes for over 200 yards.

-- Watford is sacked at least four times.

-- Sammy Watkins needs 187 yards to reach 1,000 for the season.  He'll get them all Saturday.

Final score: Clemson 51, UVA 17

-- Rest of the ACC

Virginia Tech @ Boston College - 12:00 - Any team that plays a decently disciplined defense against VT is an upset risk - and BC does.

North Carolina @ NC State - 12:30 - UNC is 2-5, and could easily finish the regular season 7-5.

Wake Forest @ Syracuse - 12:30 - A likely Bowl Eligibility Bowl in the Atlantic.

Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech - 7:00 - GT can clinch a postseason trip.

Miami @ Florida State - 8:00 - Possible preview of the ACCCG.

Byes: Maryland, Duke

the stat sheet says we won

And the scoreboard says we lost.

We will jump right into the bullet points because there's no need to construct a narrative here.  376 yards of passing and a +5 non-desperation-time turnover margin, and a loss, says all that needs to be said.  It takes a pretty awful team to lose under those circumstances.  So.  Bullet points.

-- It was mentioned during the game that David Watford set new UVA records for completions and attempts.  The interesting part was that he broke the completions record before the attempts record.  The other interesting part was that both previous records were set by Matt Schaub, in another loss to Georgia Tech some 11 years ago.

-- I think Steve Fairchild called some occasionally stupid plays (you're trying to pick up a critical fourth down and you call for a pass to Billy Skrobacz?  Not to demean Skrobacz, but he's a fullback, and therefore not particularly likely to be open unless the defense fails to account for him entirely.  There wasn't another playmaker somewhere on the roster?)  But overall Fairchild's scheme is starting to work nicely.  Some "too horizontal" criticisms should be laid to rest.  Clearly, if Fairchild has the WRs to stretch the field, he'll use them, as evidenced by Tim Smith's excellent day.  I consider 13 yards per catch the dividing line between short-field possession receivers and long-field deep threats; Smith finally averaged over 15, and given the day from him and Darius Jennings, plus a couple of fine catches by Canaan Severin, I gotta give the receivers an A this week.

-- That said, before checking the box score I would have sworn that Watford's average yards per throw was much higher than 6.1.  Seemed like there were plenty of downfield throws, and Watford completed over 70%.  But nope.  Barely six yards per throw again.  So not all the concerns are laid to rest.  But Watford laid in a few really nice throws, and if he can bring on the consistency in that department he'll change the dynamic quite a bit.

-- OK, the big issue: second-quarter clock management.  The refs pretty ridiculously let five seconds run off the clock before deigning to acknowledge Mike London's timeout.  But if you're going to call a run play, it doesn't really matter; neither six nor eleven seconds are enough time to run the ball and then get the field goal unit on.  Nor is eleven seconds even enough time to run the ball and then spike it, given the time needed to untangle the pile.

The run play is mildly defensible since, you know, give the ball to your best player.  Kevin Parks had already had a touchdown that entirely consisted of yards after contact.  But on the other hand, you're putting the game in the hands of your weakest unit (the O-line) and you know this shit didn't work against Maryland so why would it now?

-- I would've also liked to see an onside kick after the touchdown and 2PC that made it 28-25, but I can see the argument for not doing so.  Just get a three-and-out and you're fine.

-- Watford might've had an even better day throwing the ball, but Eric Smith had his worst day at right tackle.  Jeremiah Attaochu abused him all day long.  I haven't noticed Smith a ton, and for a freshman RT, that's a general plus, but Saturday was not his day.

-- I really wish the defensive game plan against the option focused on forcing the keep rather than forcing the pitch.  Help is closer when the QB keeps and the GT run game never busts big plays except on the pitch.  (Or the middle handoff.)  Vad Lee and Justin Thomas combined for seven yards on eight carries.

-- I got in from seeing the Lions beat the Cowboys in way-awesome fashion (and now I get to make fun of people who left the game early), and other celebratory activities, and then had to write this depressing stuff.  What a hobby.  This is where we are, man; Saturdays suck (unless Michigan wins, then they halfway suck) and I turn to the Lions to make the weekend better.  The Lions.  That is a bad Saturday state of affairs.

Prediction review:

-- The UVA running game fails to top 125 yards.  Yup.  Even in taking out -17 from sacks and such, the running game didn't exactly rack up yards.  Part of this was game plan; London claimed that the plan called for tilting the balance toward the pass because they felt GT had a good run defense but a sucky pass defense, and there ended up being more than twice as many called passes as runs.  Part of that was also due to playing from behind, but still.

-- David Watford again tops 6 yards a pass.  Yeah, I mean, barely, but he did.  And like I said - I would've sworn he was closer to eight just from watching.  I was surprised to see the final number so low.

-- Both David Sims and Zach Laskey have 100+ yard rushing days.  They did, and I'm especially proud of myself for this one.  This one's going out on a limb since, as pointed out in the comments, they platoon.  But yeah, no middle at all without Brent Urban, who can't get back soon enough.

-- No GT receiver has a catch of 30 yards or more, unless it's mostly YAC.  Dammit.  An elusive perfect day ruined by one lousy wheel route.  Robert Godhigh's 38-yard catch, despite him being a running back and all, spent too much time in the air for me to count this one.

Moving to 19-for-40 on the season gets me close to 50%, a number I haven't beaten since I started doing this.  Ten points was exactly the spread, so I have to stick at 4-3-1 ATS but move to 5-3 straight up in my overall predictions.  Fish in a barrel, man.

game preview: Maryland

Date/Time: Saturday, October 13; 3:30

TV: ESPNUVA

Record against the Terps: 32-43-2

Last meeting: Md. 27, UVA 20; 10/13/12, Charlottesville

Last weekend: BSU 48, UVA 27; FSU 63, Md 0

Line: Maryland by 7

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT - OL George Adeosun, PK Ian Frye, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, OT Sadiq Olanrewaju, S Wil Wahee

DOUBTFUL - None

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - TE Zach Swanson

Maryland:

OUT - DB Milan Collins, OL JaJuan Dulaney, CB Dexter McDougle, DL Mike Minter, DL Ty Tucker, WR Tyrek Cheeseboro, RB Tyler Cierski, K Adam Greene, DB Jeremiah Johnson, OL Nick Klemm, LB Matt Robinson

DOUBTFUL - QB C.J. Brown

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - WR Daniel Adams, OL Silvio Altamirano, LB Cole Farrand, WR Nigel King, TE Dave Stinebaugh, DL Zeke Riser

I'm a little torn, but strongly leaning toward the idea that we should close down relations forever with Maryland once their time in the ACC is done.  Depends on the sport, really; lacrosse, definitely.  Basketball, probably, and replace them with Georgetown.  Football, I suppose, is a little less clear, but then, the schedule's tied up for a good long time anyway.  So this'll be our last shot for the foreseeable future at what was a very fun rivalry when Ralph Friedgen would flap his fat gums and we would beat his teams in response.

-- UVA run offense vs. Md. run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 88 carries, 398 yards, 4.5 ypc, 5 TDs
Daniel Hamm: 23 carries, 141 yards, 6.1 ypc, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
178.20 yards/game, 4.09 yards/attempt
80th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Md. defense:
115.40 yards/game, 3.21 yards/attempt
25th of 125 (national), 3rd of 14 (ACC)

It seems like a safe but tentative bet so far that in the season-long who's-after-Parks watch, Khalek Shepherd is slowly but surely emerging as the primary backup.  Neither he nor Taquan Mizzell show up on the injury report this week, so we finally have the health we need to see the decision through.

The other name not on the injury report: Conner Davis.  Mike London has hinted this means another change in the order of battle for the offensive line; despite what the depth chart says, it appears Davis will take Luke Bowanko's left guard spot and move Bowanko back to center.  Bowanko is still a better guard than center, but I guess the real idea is that Davis is a better guard than Ross Burbank or Jackson Matteo are centers.  Last week's lineup shuffle looked good against a bad run defense; Maryland presents a tougher challenge.

Mitigating that will be Maryland's loss of disruptive OLB Matt Robinson.  Robinson is one of the defense's leading players and a member of one of the best linebacking corps in the league.  Inside backers Cole Farrand and L.A. Goree ought to be able to cover up for him to an extent, but Maryland loses something on the edge without Robinson.  Marcus Whitfield, on the other side of the Terps' 3-4, is more of a pass rusher.  Of course, last time I said there might be a weakness on the edge, attack the edge, Steve Fairchild kept attacking the middle.  So we'll see.

The 3-4 is just another challenge for our O-line, too, which hasn't been allowed to see many conventional defenses this year.  Maryland's line has been solid, and nose tackle Darius Kilgo is a load, so the O-line is simply going to be tested all day, and the threat will be more versatile than just watching Aaron Donald tear into the backfield all day.

It may be that Davis's return is another small boost to the line.  Changing from Wallace and Whitmire to Whitmire and Smith certainly was one, and you have to like getting a starter back.  But one good day against Ball State doesn't change my mind about the offense.  Even without Matt Robinson, Maryland is well-equipped to slow down and even stop the UVA run game.  Then you add in the fact that the read-option is designed against a 4-3 defense, and I definitely don't see strong results in this area of the game.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Md. pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 101/171, 59.1%; 813 yards, 3 TDs, 7 INTs; 4.75 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 19 rec., 119 yards, 1 TD
Darius Jennings: 14 rec., 107 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
171.4 yards/game, 4.6 yards/attempt
125th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Md. defense:
218.4 yards/game, 6.5 yards/attempt
43rd of 125 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

Another injury has sapped quite a bit of the effectiveness out of the Maryland pass defense: the loss of Dexter McDougle for the season.  The main consequence of that was the loss of most of their big-play capability; McDougle had three picks in as many games.  Isaac Goins is a solid cornerback, but McDougle's replacement, freshman William Likely, is 5'7", and, you know, a freshman.

The Maryland pass rush can be nasty.  The aforementioned Marcus Whitfield has 5.5 sacks, and his backup, Yannik Cudjoe-Virgil, has three.  Maryland's nose tackle position, between Darius Kilgo and Andre Monroe, has combined for 5.5 sacks, and the team total is 18, which ties them for 5th in the country.

So the O-line is in for another test.  Given the pass rush the Terps can generate from the middle of the line, having Bowanko at center is a little bit of a relief.  The playing-time intention at wide receiver, though, is still a mystery, even with the "ors" taken off the depth chart.  I guess there's just a skepticism factor that the starters are suddenly Kyle Dockins, Keeon Johnson, and Miles Gooch.  Johnson I believe given the role he played against Ball State, and that lineup of guys could provide an advantage given the lack of size Maryland has at corner.  Finding it hard to believe they're fully relegating guys like Tim Smith and Darius Jennings to the bench, though.

I do think our receivers provide an advantage over the Maryland defensive backfield, where the Terps are middling-decent but did present no threat whatsoever to the FSU passing game.  (By contrast, FSU's run game was successful but not spectacularly so.)  However, Watford's still learning, and slowly.  I'm gonna have to see something before I give the whole unit the benefit of the doubt.  At some point Watford's gonna have a great game and prove me wrong, but I don't plan on saying "this weekend is it" all year til I get it right.

-- Md. run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Brandon Ross: 68 carries, 331 yards, 4.8 ypc, 2 TDs
Albert Reid: 29 carries, 120 yards, 4.1 ypc, 1 TD

Md. offense:
188.0 yards/game, 4.65 yards/attempt
53rd of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
149.2 yards/game, 3.87 yards/attempt
50th of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

Like the offense in reverse, I'm gonna have to see more than one bad game out of the defense (Oregon doesn't count) before I decide it sucks.  I don't think that'll be in this phase of the game, at least.  The likely loss of C.J. Brown makes the Maryland run attack fairly one-dimensional.  Decent opponents have shut down Brandon Ross's backup, Albert Reid, which by subtraction leaves Ross as the only real rushing threat.  (Other backup Jacquille Veii, with almost as many carries as Reid, has been a garbage-timer so far.)

Ross can move the ball, but is no threat to break one open, and is a little bit stat-padded by a big game against ODU.  Florida International shut him down and FSU made him disappear entirely; he's just not a game-breaker, and Maryland's patchily young offensive line is still learning its way around consistent run-blocking.

So this is a very important phase of the game for UVA.  The Maryland pass offense can be dangerous, and UVA simply must force them to have to rely solely on it to move the ball.  If the run game can be stifled with just the regular up-front personnel, maybe even with six in the box, it'll make this game so much easier.  Long day otherwise.

-- Md. pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
C.J. Brown: 72/113, 63.7%; 1,125 yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT; 9.96 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Deon Long: 24 rec., 348 yards, 1 TD
Stefon Diggs: 20 rec., 424 yards, 3 TDs

Md. offense:
257.6 yards/game, 9.3 yards/attempt
10th of 125 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
191.4 yards/game, 5.6 yards/attempt
10th of 125 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

It's great to have such nice numbers on our side, even with such nice ones on the Maryland side too, but here's where the injury bug takes a chunk out of our defense, with Demetrious Nicholson out for the game.  This is not the time for that, as UVA goes up against a dynamic duo at receiver for the third time in a row, and probably the best of the three in Stefon Diggs and Deon Long.

Diggs is also dealing with a malady of his own, which could slow him down and even up the matchup; Randy Edsall has been referring to him as not 100% and he hasn't been taking return duties.  He's been limited the past two weeks to two catches each.  Long has stepped forward somewhat.  Still, you have to game plan for him.  You're not going to worry about Levern Jacobs or Malcolm Culmer.  You might watch Nigel King, who stands 6'3" and for that reason alone can be a tough cover, but Diggs and Long are what make the Maryland offense move.

The above assumes C.J. Brown can play, but he's listed as doubtful - so he probably won't.  We're in much better shape if he doesn't.  Backup Caleb Rowe is not incapable but not close to the player Brown is, either.  The combination of losing Brown and having Diggs limited could be a major crippling factor for the Maryland offense, and without Nicholson we'll take all the help we can get.

-- Favorability ratings:

Run offense: 3
Pass offense: 3.5
Run defense: 7.5
Pass defense: 3 if Brown plays and Diggs is playable, and 6.5 otherwise

Average: 4.25 or 5.125

-- Outlook

You can see the effect on the game of Brown's injury.  Take him out of there and I can see UVA having the slimmest of advantages.  Put him in and the game swings Maryland's way.  Maryland's run game is much more dangerous with Brown (Rowe is not a runner) and Brown is easily the better passer too.   UVA must, must must must shut down the run game to the greatest extent possible, and do so nice and early, so that they'll be able to focus on stopping the pass.  If they can do that, that's their chance.  Moving the ball will be tough and opportunities to do so limited, so there'll be plenty of pressure on the defense to keep the game within striking distance.

-- Prediction summary

-- Watford throws neither a pick nor a touchdown.

-- Neither run game musters more than three yards per attempt.

-- Keeon Johnson leads UVA wide receivers in receptions.

-- Stefon Diggs has had two catches each of the past two games; he has more here.

Final score: Md. 17, UVA 13

-- Rest of the ACC

Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech - 12:00 - Tech will be remembering the embarrassing beatdown they received from the Panthers last year.

Duke vs. Navy - 12:30 - Duke bowl eligibility hopes probably demand this win.

Syracuse @ NC State - 3:30 - As do the bowl hopes of both these teams, slim as they are.

Boston College @ Clemson - 3:30 - Clemson's tuneup before the big game next week.

Georgia Tech @ Brigham Young - 7:00 - Should be a useful game in learning how we stand.

Byes: Miami, Florida State, Wake Forest, UNC

weekend review

Le sigh.  It wasn't a great weekend, but we're obligated to review it anyway.  Someone on one of the boards said that the collective IQ of the fanbase is directly proportional to the win-loss record, which, ain't it the truth, man.  One thing that will really blow everyone's mind is if London is fired after next year (which means, probably, that we didn't go bowling now or then) and an objective review of the Al Groh and Mike London eras proves Groh the superior coach.  If IQs could be negative, you'd see it then.

We'll start with the recruiting board, I suppose.  2014 recruiting has ground to a halt, but not at other schools, which means targets keep slowly coming off the board.  The updates:

-- Removed WR Juwann Winfree (Maryland) from yellow.

-- Removed DT Ricky Walker (VT) from red.

So yeah, these are not happy times in the recruiting world, although I do question London's commitment to recruiting either of those players.  Walker never actually got offered; if London wanted to, he could've simply sent a letter, as written offers are kosher by now.

*****************************************************

Let's go around the ACC and see what kind of fun other people were having while we were watching our fourth-year coach get mashed by a MAC team at home.

-- Miami knocked off GT.  Now, they gotta play FSU from the Atlantic while VT doesn't have to play anyone of consequence, so they don't have a lot of margin for error.  But it sets them up to achieve, after nine seasons of waiting, what the ACC dreamed of all this time: a Miami-FSU CG.  All they gotta do is beat Tech, really, and not lose more than once.

-- FSU must have been kinda cheesed off about all this Maryland talk.

-- NC State is definitely one of the Jekyll-and-Hydiest teams in the ACC.  A loss to Wake - ouch.

-- Seriously, man - really cheesed off.

-- UNC is setting up to be the team I missed the hardest on in the preseason.  I mean, they might not even go bowling unless they rattle off a huge win streak after their inevitable Thursday loss to Miami this week.  The competition afterwards kinda sucks, so they could do it, but still.

-- I'm not kidding.  Pissed as hell.

*****************************************************

It's a small Senior Seasons section this week, because Farrar, Richardson, and Moss were all on bye weeks this weekend.  Probably a record for the smallest ever.  Nevertheless, we press on.  Grimly.

Collins Hill 35, Peachtree Ridge 28: Jordan Ellis racked up three more touchdowns and 102 rushing yards, but his team suffered their first loss of the season in a battle of undefeated teams.  Peachtree Ridge is 5-1.

Lawrenceville 48, Episcopal 47: Evan Butts caught what would've been the game-tying touchdown if Episcopal had kicked the extra point, but they went for two and ended their long winning streak in the process.  Episcopal is 5-1.

Central Catholic 35, St. Petersburg Catholic 14 (Caanan Brown) - CCC is 5-1.
Oscar Smith 70, Deep Creek 6 (Andrew Brown) - Oscar Smith is 5-0.
Bayside 18, Kellam 10 (Quin Blanding) - Bayside is 3-3.
Woodgrove 35, Heritage 7 (J.J. Jackson) - Woodgrove is 3-2.

That's all I got for one night.  I could go on about depth chart changes this week, but the only ones were at wide receiver where none of Jennings, Terrell, or Smith are atop the charts.  You can riddle that out on your own.  Nothing is working for me tonight, from the plumbing to the compass to the thermostat, and I don't mean my house.  And we might be less than a week away from "wait til basketball season" so that's not the best of mood-setters either.

weekend review

No review of the weekend's events would be complete without discussing the depth chart changes, so let's get right on that.  In ascending order of importance, these are at tight end, linebacker, wide receiver, O-line, and punt returner.

-- Zach Swanson's lack of presence probably means an injury from which it's going to take a while to come back.  Too bad, because his play early in the season was strong.  But his absence isn't why the offense sucked, either.

-- Demeitre Brim moves from strong-side to weak-side LB.  I think this is a subtle way of saying Max Valles will be on the field more, and that the SLB position is becoming more and more of an extra pass rush than a traditional Sam role.

-- Wide receiver.  "Or" shows up everywhere.  No starters this week except those that earn the job in practice by not screwing up, is how to read that.   My guess is that the de facto impact will be small - for one thing, Darius Jennings's participation in the construction of such an exquisite pile of shit was surprising and probably short-lived.  Here's betting he doesn't drop a thing all week.  The rest I'm not so sure about, so we'll just have to see come game time.

-- And the much-maligned-and-deservedly-so O-line.  The five-best-guys philosophy is on full display with Jay Whitmire moving to the problematic RG position and Eric Smith taking over at tackle.  Cody Wallace moves to LG behind Luke Bowanko, which is code for you'll never see him again because Bowanko is considered one of the rocks.  Wallace just got buried.

I'm less sure what it means that Michael Mooney moves to backup LT - I think that's probably a promotion of sorts.  Sadiq Olanrewaju definitely got promoted; even though he's behind Smith (obviously) that's better than being behind Morgan Moses.  It might seem like Whitmire got demoted (tackle to guard, after all) but it's really more a function of him having a couple years on Smith and therefore being more versatile.

The center battle is back on, too, probably not least because of Burbank's bad snap.

-- Finally we come to punt returner - where no change whatsoever was made.  This is bad in a couple different ways.  Mike London can't be on the accountability train if he's letting slide the single stupidest play of UVA's season so far.  It's fortunate that Dominique Terrell is from northern VA or this would really open the door to 757 favoritism charges.  You had a lot of that undercurrent with Phillip Sims; allowing Terrell's drunken balloon chase to go unaddressed would practically blow those doors open if he were from Chesapeake or something.

The final verdict is that these are generally positive changes taken one by one.  Wallace just has never been an ACC-level lineman.  Putting a week-long microscope on the receivers is a good idea - David Watford has enough trouble finding open receivers without them dropping the throw when he does.  But London's playing Russian roulette with his credibility over what should be a very simple call at PR.  Can't fully trust what he says about fixing problems when he won't fix the most visible one.

FWIW, London has said that will be a practice competition too, but actions are speaking louder than words here.  Until I see someone besides Terrell back there I won't believe it - and really, even then, it shouldn't be a competition, Terrell should simply sit and watch, because he's hurting the team as bad or worse than any other individual, the way he fields kicks.

**************************************************

The ACC didn't produce too much in the way of surprises this week, except in Chapel Hill.  Quick takes on the week's action in the league:

-- UNC is definitely leaving me with egg on my face for picking them to win the Coastal.  ECU racked up 55 points on them, so maybe our offense can score a touchdown or two.

-- Maryland looks better and better each week, even when they don't play.  West Virginia's bounce-back win over Oklahoma State makes the Terps look awfully good.

-- VT's win in the battle of the Techs actually puts them in great shape, with UNC looking like a bunch of chumps and Miami being the only likely roadblock in the Coastal now.

At the one-third mark of the season, it's time to reassess the remaining schedule.  Beating BYU was a great step toward bowl-game respectability; losing to Pitt was almost as big a step back.  The remainder of the season breaks down like so.

Likely wins: Ball State, Duke.  Not "likely" in the traditional sense - just that you can't be a bowl team period if you can't beat those teams.

Likely losses: Miami, Clemson.  These would be the teams that our defense almost certainly can't stop enough for the offense to catch up.

Swing games: Maryland, GT, VT, UNC.  And let's be real, we're not exactly favored in most - or any - of these.  But if we can get past Ball State and Duke, we need only win two of these four.  And all these teams have serious flaws, although if that's true of Maryland, they've yet to be exposed.  Our defense, though, is good enough to at least give us a prayer of seeing a win in all four of these.

**************************************************

Senior Seasons feature:

Peachtree Ridge 49, Habersham Central 0: Jordan Ellis only needed seven carries to have his biggest day of the season - he racked up three touchdowns, two of them on runs of 68 and 73 yards, and finished with 197 yards.  Peachtree Ridge is 5-0.

Episcopal 38, Chichester 20: Evan Butts had three catches for 111 yards.  Episcopal is 5-0.

Upland 42, Santiago 41 (Jeffery Farrar) - Upland is 3-2.
Central Catholic 38, Trinity Catholic 14 (Caanan Brown) - CCC is 4-1.
South Granville 56, Cummings 27 (Will Richardson) - Cummings is 1-5.
Ocean Lakes 49, Bayside 16 (Quin Blanding) - Bayside is 2-3.
Oscar Smith 56, Lakeland 6 (Andrew Brown) - Oscar Smith is 4-0.
Chancellor 37, Millbrook 3 (Steven Moss) - Chancellor is 1-4.
Briar Woods 45, Woodgrove 16 (J.J. Jackson) - Woodgrove is 2-2.

hamm it up

Everybody loves a good Cinderella story.  And I love watching dominant running backs.  That makes Daniel Hamm the obvious topic du jour.

If you'd ever heard of Hamm, you are a teammate, a relation, or lying.  His existence flew under every radar that's tuned on Charlottesville.  He doesn't have an entry in most recruiting databases and he never received any scholarship offers to speak of, not in football.  He showed up on the field and people probably tried to remember if Khalek Shepherd wore #22 or some other number, until his name was announced.  Now his name is on all the headlines.

You have to admit, that's pretty cool.  It might be for just this one week, and might've only been VMI, but the entry in the record book is just as permanent as any other.  And it made something interesting out of an uninteresting game.

Also, it leaves some questions, or at least, one big one.  Namely, does this mean we have a new running back?  Well, the quality of competition looms large over everything positive we can say about Hamm's future.  Except for the first couple drives, VMI had no chance against the blocking, and Hamm always had a hole to run through.  When he broke a tackle, it always came with the question as to whether a player on a better team would've brought him down; when he ran past someone, you always wondered if another team's players would've been faster.  There's no way UVA's running game will generate 357 yards again this year.

Even so, a couple things look to be really in Hamm's favor here.  First and probably foremost, it's got to be really bad news for Kye Morgan, hasn't it?  That Khalek Shepherd and Taquan Mizzell are both hurt, and the next guy out is a true freshman walk-on, instead of Morgan who redshirted last season - that's a surprise.  Morgan's got more than three-and-a-half seasons left in his career, so it's not like you just write him off, but what didn't he show last year?

As for Hamm himself, some of those runs - particularly, I thought, his second TD run - were nice runs regardless of opponent.  He looked strong in his running.  Some of the holes he hit weren't very big, and the truth is, a lot of guys might have considered them too small and stepped around them, looking for a home run elsewhere.  And against most teams, that's how you run for two yards.  Hamm was content to take the five-to-seven and come back and do it again.  There's only one Barry Sanders, so give me the north-south, workhorse stuff all day long.  I loved watching a guy who would - oh, fuck it, Hammer the defense - carry after carry.

Whether Hamm has or will unseat Shepherd or Mizzell this season, nobody can say except those who aren't telling.  Whether that performance will translate to success against actual opponents, nobody can say at all.  But I'm looking forward to finding out.

Other stuff in short:

-- That was the good story of the offense.  The bad story: the passing game.  The numbers are good but the eye test was definitely not.  So many of those yards were YAC, and not like with Mike Rocco where the YAC was often the result of a very well-timed ball.  Watford threw a swing pass behind Kevin Parks and Parks was still able to pick up a ton of yardage; no ACC team will let that happen.

Watford's interceptions were the result of locking in on a receiver to absurd extremes.  Especially the first.  Some blame goes to Miles Gooch for running his route and then stopping, but he was so thoroughly covered that Watford had no business throwing that thing at all.  Watford had some nice throws, too - the one to Tim Smith for a touchdown was gorgeous.  Both his touchdown throws, actually, were excellent.  Even then, he was watching nobody but Smith all the way.  Until he learns to go through his second read he's not going to be a productive QB.

It would help if his receivers gave him a little assistance.  Gooch has been mentioned; Dominique Terrell was also guilty at least once.  Watford was scrambling and Terrell ran to a point on the field and simply stopped moving.  I can't believe this only happened the two times I noticed it.  Marques Hagans has got to impress on these guys that the route doesn't stop where the little arrow ends up.  Of all former quarterbacks - a guy who kept a ton of plays alive with his feet - he ought to know this best.

-- I love the defense, though.  When the announcers talked about how VMI had us "on the ropes" in the first quarter, well, OK, the offense didn't produce, but the VMI offense gained 15 yards the whole quarter.  I mean, come on.  The defense just crushed the fightin' Vimmies.  No contest.  If the offense had played as good a game as the defense it would've been 105-0.  I'm not going back through the annals to find out the last time UVA allowed so few yards (79) but the notes tell us that they allowed 84 to Akron in 2004.  So it goes back further than that.  I would go so far as to say that even with as bad as VMI is, the defense outperformed expectations.

Time for a prediction review:

-- Mizzell and Shepherd combine for at least five more carries than Parks.  The point here was that Parks was going to get a nice light day, maybe not show up in the second half.  I could null it out since nobody knew about their injuries, but I'm giving it to myself, actually, because Hamm by himself had four more carries and then the fourth quarter was turned over to the backups.

-- Watford averages 10 yards per attempt, enough to double his seasonal passing yards if allowed to throw 28 times.  He was at 8.2, which isn't enough for this.

-- At least five new redshirts are burned, two on the O-line.  The grand total is seven: Hamm is one, along with LaChaston Smith, Eric Tetlow, Sadiq Olanrewaju, Eric Smith, Max Valles, and Donte Wilkins.  Most are defensible; LaChaston Smith is the one I have to question.  That hurdle was cool, but couldn't Morgan have just gotten those carries?  Five deep is plenty.  It's doubly screwy because of the very strong possibility that Smith might move to a whole new position eventually.

The rest are fine.  I actually saw someone complaining that Hamm's redshirt had been burned.  Lordy.  You wouldn't have known he was even remotely good if you'd gotten your way.  Besides, Hamm is a walk-on; it's exceedingly wrong to essentially tell a walk-on "for the good of the team we're going to ask you to pay your very expensive way for a fifth year."  The offensive linemen almost had to play; the first-stringers can't take every snap of the season.  And we'll almost certainly see more of Wilkins, too.

-- Defensive tackles account for at least two sacks.  No, but they still dominated.

-- So does Eli Harold.  No, but Trent Corney did, probably against VMI's second-string tackle, although I didn't look to see.

-- Urban bats down at least two passes.  There was actually a lot of very good pressure on Eric Kordenbrock, but VMI did a nice job of keeping his release time short.

I only get two of six, which adds up to 6-for-16 on the year.  Full game prediction, with a win against the spread and a gimme on the straight-up, makes me 2-1 and 2-1 ATS.

We'll cover the rest of the ACC as part of tomorrow's weekend review.

it's a start

And 1-0 is better than 0-1.  They called it winning ugly, but it's not our fault the game was played underneath a waterfall.  (And really, it was Andrea Adelson calling it ugly.  Adelson is worse than Heather Dinich when it comes to being a haterz.  One of the dumbest things I've ever seen written was a backhanded compliment in which Adelson declared that UVA's defense "found the toughness it had been lacking last season."  Our defense was pretty good last season, minus a few turnovers; Adelson didn't look any farther than the 4-8 record for that line of BS.)

Ugly, anyway, is what they call it when you win with defense and not much offense.  That much, at least, is true.  The running backs mustered barely three yards a carry and nothing longer than 13, and David Watford got very little help from his receivers.  Breaking in a new offense is hard.

Which also made the defensive performance open to interpretation.  Let's face it, you can't just roll up to the field with a brand-new hurry-up offense in hand and expect it all to go beautifully.  BYU's execution was inconsistent, no surprise for a team used to doing things very differently.

But listen to me sound like the haterz.  That's not my job.  First of all, BYU is consistently a good team, and they didn't just stop being a good team this year.  Bronco Mendenhall has never failed to take BYU to a bowl game in his eight years on the job.  They might have a tough time going this year, but they certainly can get there.  Regardless, they're a team that has always commanded respect. 

And what were the reasons for 4-8 and no bowl game last year?  Special teams, turnovers, and the quarterback platoon, I'd say should be the top three reasons.  What happened this weekend?  Special teams shined, there were two huge turnovers (I count the safety here) and one quarterback took all the snaps.  Well how about that.

I said that of the games against BYU, GT, Miami, and VT, we most likely had to win half to go bowling.  So even though we're one game into the season, we're halfway there.  Hard to top that.

Other more specific game notes:

-- Watford's performance was pretty meh, but the numbers make it look worse than it was; with generally good protection and enough scrambling to buy time when necessary, there ought to have been far more open receivers than there were.  Some of this might have been due to inexperience at reading the scene, and honestly I have no way of knowing how much that played a role.  But let's not kid ourselves: the receivers were way below expectations.  Tim Smith dropped two tough but catchable balls on the opening drive alone.

-- It would also have helped if Fairchild had been much more relentless in pounding the WR screen to take advantage of the absurd cushions the BYU cornerbacks were allowing.

-- Overall, I think you have to ignore that the defense was facing a revamped offense, and then you see a lot of great plays.  Not even counting the safety, which was more a crappy BYU play than a great UVA one, or Ant Harris's pick.  I look at the first quarter: Maurice Canady makes a really nice pass breakup, and then DreQuan Hoskey informs us that the cornerback competition is real and makes an even better one on the very next play.  (Hoskey anticipated the slant - he couldn't have made such a quick break unless he was selling out and assuming a third-down slant - and popped the ball free to force a punt.  Great instincts and great speed on that play.)

-- Stars abound on the defense.  Eli Harold made a mess in the backfield.  Harris did everything.  And Daquan Romero looks a lot like the star linebacker I've been expecting.

-- Kyle Van Noy: Not impressed.  A gambling style leads to a lot of his TFL, and Watford broke a Van Noy tackle attempt and turned a TFL into a first down.  If his foray into the backfield doesn't bear fruit and the play isn't near him, he's a ghost.

-- A 53-yard field goal - in sort of a pressure situation, actually, with less than ideal footing - gives me a world of confidence in the future of the kicking game.

-- This has nothing to do with the game, but I'm a little disappointed that SB Nation let the Blogpoll go by the wayside this year.  Asking for a spot in the Blogpoll when I'd been writing for like two months (it had put a call out for more ACC membership) is the main reason I have any readership in the first place.  I might do a top-25 this year anyway.

Prediction roundup!

-- Khalek Shepherd and Taquan Mizzell split carries and targets in the first half, but as the game goes on, one or the other takes a back seat.  Hard to say what to make of it.  They did indeed split the work in the first half; essentially, both took a back seat in the second.  I'm giving myself credit for this one; the idea was that the coaches, in a close game, would roll with the guy they felt most comfortable with.  That turned out to be Kevin Parks.

-- Dominique Terrell has a huge day, to the tune of at least six catches.  Terrell had one, and the receivers overall were a major, major disappointment.  Only Darius Jennings had more than two catches, and his average was less than nine yards a catch.  Good receiver play could've made this a fairly easy win.

-- The run offense generates about 3.5 yards per carry from the primary backs.  It was about 3.09, which is close but not enough for me to take credit here.

-- If Taysom Hill rushes for 90+ yards, BYU wins.  I didn't go with the flipside and say fewer than 90 means a loss, so this prediction is null - neither a win nor a loss.  However, it's fair to point out that I wrote this: "UVA can win if [Jamaal] Williams gets his yards, but they can't let Hill burn them with his feet."  Williams had 148 yards and Hill did not burn UVA with his feet, and that put UVA in position to win.

-- Hill will average no more than 11.5 yards a completion, but rack up over 250 yards passing.  Hill's completion average was better than that and his total yards were worse.  The first part is not fair, though; 52 of his 175 yards came on the last play of the game with UVA justifiably in a full-prevent defense, and very smartly not contesting the catch but simply ensuring they wrapped up the receiver after the completion.  So I hit that one pretty well.  If the second half had been right, I'd count it.  Halfway doesn't count, though; Hill's passing was much less efficient than I though, and the UVA secondary did a great job making it so.

-- The first team to go up by two scores wins. Killer instinct.  Another null prediction; nobody did this.  The biggest lead of the game was UVA's 12-7 advantage after the safety.  That's not two scores.

That makes for an opening performance of 1-of-4, not to mention 0-1, 0-1 ATS to start the year.  Like David Watford's numbers, though, I think the numbers look worse than the actual performance.  I called for a close, low-scoring game, and that's what we got.  Many of my general instincts were spot-on.  Next week we'll work on translating that to the stat sheet.

Notes from around the rest of the ACC:

-- Part of the reason I'm feeling so high on my prognostication skills is that the FSU-Pitt game played out exactly as expected.  Jameis Winston is the latest media darling, and he did have a tremendous game (25-for-27!) but Pitt is probably just exactly what I said they were.  The main difference: they were supposed to have a pretty good secondary.

-- Logan Thomas's performance is hilarious.  5-for-26 with a pick.  That's a sight to behold.  Except for one lightning strike - a 77-yard TD run by Trey Edmunds - VT's offense is also the shitshow I thought they'd be.  Yes, yes, granted: Alabama.  They make a lot of offenses look like shitshows.  Still: the lightning strike and a Kyle Fuller interception (giving Tech the ball in Alabama territory, which they only converted to a field goal) are the only thing that made that game look like anything but a blowout.

-- Helluva nice job by Clemson.

-- Against Villanova, Boston College didn't look like the surprise bowl team I said they were.

********************************************

Further weekend-review type stuff occurs tomorrow, and this week I want to also squeeze in a recruiting profile on UVA's basketball commitment, Isaiah Wilkins.

camp questions

It's here.  Yay?  The first day of fall camp.  If you like you can call it the first day of football season.  Personally I wait until Monday of the first game week for that, because that's when I get this machine moving into its football rhythm, but today is just fine too if it suits you.

I do not write a full-blown preview of the season until I see how camp went, because stuff always changes.  Always.  But I do whet your appetite just a little every year with what I think are the questions that we need to answer by the end of August.  Something a little more specific than just "what are the freshmen going to look like?"  That is what we'll do today.  These are the issues I think are most important for this year's practices.

1. Will Mike London keep his promise to pick a quarterback and stick with him?

You'll note that the QB thing is most emphatically not "Lambert or Watford?"  It doesn't matter.  It's a different question than last year entirely.  When the choice was between Rocco and Sims, it was a question of experience and stability vs. dazzling potential.  It mattered a bit more.  This year it doesn't.  Watford has played a little, but his limited run in 2011 isn't very informative and so much has happened since then that it wouldn't be fair to base any judgments on it.  Both are close to equally inexperienced.

So no, I don't think it matters whether the coaches choose Watford or Lambert, and anyway it looks like the answer is leaning toward Watford.  Really, I have minimal patience for people who pick one (especially when the candidates have been on the field so little) and root for that one to win and then get all pissy on message boards when their choice disagrees with the coaches.  It smacks of individual over team, it starts unnecessary fights, and its arrogant to think you're that much smarter than the coaches when you don't get to see anything of practice, the film room, or the weight room.  So the real question is: Are we going to have to put up with the wishy-washy stuff again?  After two years of platoonery, it's clear that it doesn't work and probably stunts the growth of both QBs involved.  There's a reason very smart coaches have said that if you have two quarterbacks, you don't have any.  1 + 1 = 1/2.  If just one quarterback takes all the starters snaps this season, it'll produce benefits both this year and in future years.  If not, we'll probably look back at the London era and decide that the reason it was shorter than the Groh era was because he couldn't ever make up his mind about quarterbacks.

2. How will we deal with the Sean Cascarano situation?

Cascarano's hip is more and more sounding like a medical scholarship waiting to happen.  At the very least he's not ready for the start of camp, and at this point, it's a bonus if he can play at all.  Tough situation for the team to lose an experienced senior who's capable of playing both tackle and guard.  Cascarano probably would've lined up at RG, so for starters, the coaches need to decide who takes his place (Conner Davis would be the leading candidate) and then, who steps up to the two-deep.  Might Ross Burbank see some action at guard as well as being the backup center?  (Currently, Jackson Matteo is listed as the starter.)  Ryan Doull is listed as the backup LG and Sean Karl the third-string RG.  That's getting into redshirt freshman territory.

The line is otherwise fairly set.  Jackson Matteo enters camp as the starting center, and that's the only other place where it looks like a change is possible (though not wildly likely), barring further injury.  Morgan Moses and Jay Whitmire look pretty set as the tackles, and Luke Bowanko will have a starting role regardless of where he plays - which is LG at the moment.

3. How much playing time will Taquan Mizzell get?

Kevin Parks is probably going to get carries regardless.  Khalek Shepherd keeps getting talked up, and we barely know a thing about Kye Morgan, who redshirted last year.  (And just as a wild card, LaChaston Smith starts off the fall listed as a running back.  Not terribly surprising, since Smith talked about wanting a shot there, and the depth chart is a little thin at tailback.  But I think ultimately, Smith lands back on defense.)

Most of this won't matter if Mizzell is all that's been advertised.  Parks is a fixture, but Shepherd and Morgan probably won't get in the way if Smoke is Smoke.  Mizzell is said to be an outstanding pass-catcher in addition to all his physical talents as a ballcarrier, which only adds to the likelihood of seeing him on the field.  How big will his role be?  We'll probably know by the end of camp whether he'll see starters carries or not.

4. Can Jake McGee round out his game?

McGee got a few votes for the preseason all-ACC team because he's one hell of a pass-catching weapon, as demonstrated last year.  But as a blocker he's not there yet, or at least, wasn't last year.  He's up 15 pounds from last season, a good sign in that regard as long as it doesn't detract from his fluidity downfield.  If he can really mature into being a true all-around tight end that can road-grade linebackers in the running game, protect against blitzers in pass-blocking, and go downfield as a receiver, he's got the chops to be first-team in the conference at some point.

5. What does the two-deep look like at defensive tackle?

Losing Justin Renfrow was a nasty hit to the depth there.  You've got David Dean and Brent Urban as the starters; that's a good foundation.  DT generally requires three really good options for a rotation, though, or the starters will wear down.  Can Marco Jones be ready?  (He might be needed more at DE, too.)  The rest is freshmen.  Andre Miles-Redmond is coming off a redshirt year, and there's true freshmen Tyrell Chavis (after FUMA-shirting) and Donta Wilkins.  Any or all of them might have to show up on the field at some point, but fall camp will be crucial in establishing a pecking order there.

6. Who wins the placekicking battle?

Ian Frye and Dylan Sims are the main candidates.  Let's hope at least one of them can kick well enough that by October, watching the kicker trot onto the field isn't a reason to have a nervous breakdown.

Obviously, there are all sorts of other things to be worked on.  It'll be interesting to see how the schemes of Jon Tenuta and Steve Fairchild develop.  Same goes for the special teams expertise of Larry Lewis, and Tom O'Brien's contributions to game management, but these won't really be noticed until game time.  And yeah, I do kinda want to see what the freshmen will look like, both the true and the redshirted variety.  All this in just four short weeks; it'll be game time any minute now.

the recruit: Eric Smith

Name: Eric Smith
Position: OT
Hometown: Decatur, GA
School: Columbia
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 280

24/7: 86, three stars; #71 OT, GA #70
ESPN: 74, three stars; #100 OT, GA #114, SE #467
Rivals: NR
Scout: two stars

Other offers: North Carolina, Central Florida, Florida Int'l, Middle Tennessee

Even before Brad Henson's spy-games flip to North Carolina, the coaching staff was out looking for an extra offensive lineman to help fill out the class.  Losing Henson made getting one pretty much imperative, and thus it was a bit of a relief when Eric Smith signed on about a week later.  In truth, since UNC was Smith's other primary suitor, I wouldn't be surprised if there were some relation between Henson's switch and Smith's commitment.

Smith is one of those guys whose junior year didn't really get him noticed.  His school is definitely on the radar of coaches in the region - he had teammates that signed with SEC schools in 2012 - so that's not it.  Whatever the reason, his recruitment consisted of Sun Belt and I-AA schools until the end of the fall, when UVA and UNC came through with offers and a few other decent-sized programs at least started showing a little interest.

I hate to try and evaluate Smith in relation to Henson - it's only natural, but it's not really fair.  We'll make this point though: Henson was never going to be anything but an interior lineman, whereas Smith has the size for tackle.  I wouldn't say "prototypical" because at 6'5" he'd be the shortest of our tackles, and all the linemen we have listed at 6'5" have been moved inside - Conner Davis, Ryan Doull, etc.  But Smith is pretty quick.  Most of his highlight tape has him going up against guys that range from smaller to much smaller, so I don't take away anything about his strength, but he moves quick for a big guy and blocks well while in motion.  That should be a point in favor of tackle.

The scouting services are pretty blah on his talents, which isn't surprising since you don't suddenly find unrecruited four-stars in November and December.  ESPN's scouting report uses the phrase "flashes the ability to..." three times and "demonstrates the ability to...." once, all of which is scoutspeak for "between occasionally and sometimes."  There's definitely work to be done here.

Plus with Morgan Moses coming back, and Kelby Johnson and Jay Whitmire ready to figure heavily into the plans for the O-line, and Michael Mooney and Sean Karl coming off redshirt years, there is more than enough playable depth at tackle.  Smith is going to redshirt.  As do most offensive line freshmen, but Smith is even more of a lock than usual.  He's similar in many ways to our other 2013 tackle prospect, Sadiq Olanrewaju, but I think, just in looking at pictures (which are kind of old) Olanrewaju has the more college-ready physique.  (Both have to put on 20 pounds, though, so, not by much.)  Smith isn't the kind of prospect who's going to challenge for playing time right off the bat, and will head into the pipeline and hopefully emerge in a couple years as a field-ready player.  I'm just happy we even have a pipeline, though; it's better than the alternative.

game preview: North Carolina

Date/Time: Thursday, November 15; 7:30

TV: ESPN

Record against the Heels: 54-58-4, depending on how you view their history of cheating

Last meeting: UNC 28, UVA 17; 9/17/11, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA 41, Miami 40; GT 68, UNC 50

Line: UNC by 3

Injury report:

Virginia -

OUT FOR SEASON
S Pablo Alvarez, DT Marco Jones, WR Mario Nixon

OUT
none

DOUBTFUL
CB Maurice Canady

QUESTIONABLE
None

PROBABLE
K Ian Frye, DE Billy Schautz, S Anthony Harris

North Carolina -

- doesn't like to play nice, and doesn't release injury reports.  But they won't have their kicker, in case you're wondering.

RedemptionQuest continues as the Hoos try to salvage their season.  Now UVA's two oldest rivals stand in the way of the postseason, and only the fact that this is at home and the VT game is in Blacksburg is keeping me from outright declaring this the toughest of the two remaining games.  You know what's at stake here.

-- UVA run offense vs. UNC run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 140 carries, 660 yards, 4.7 avg., 5 TDs
Perry Jones: 114 carries, 395 yards, 3.5 avg., 2 TDs

UVA offense:
136.7 yards/game, 3.85 yards/attempt
88th of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)

UNC defense:
137.9 yards/game, 3.49 yards/attempt
25th of 124 (national), 3rd of 12 (ACC)

Before you ask, yes, UNC's own personal GT nightmare has a little bit of an effect on their numbers, to the tune of a little less than half a yard per carry.  So what we're looking at really is one of the best run defenses we've seen all year.

UNC runs a 4-2-5, kinda.  UVA has seen some 4-2-5's this season, with limited success against them, but trying to run on a 4-2-5 isn't that different than trying it against a basic 4-3.  UNC employs a safety, Gene Robinson, in a position they call the Ram, and his primary responsibility is run defense.  This way they can go into a nickel, if they like, without changing personnel, but when UVA shows run, Robinson is no more a safety than Laroy Reynolds.

The other neat difference is that Robinson, in playing further back than a regular linebacker, can see more of the field and thus can be used as a hedge against counters and other misdirection.  That leaves the regular linebackers free to crash the first thing they see, instead of taking a split second to hesitate and diagnose.  This they do quite well.  UNC's two linebackers are a pair of playmakers, especially Kevin Reddick, who's got 14.5 TFL this season.

Not much relief on the D-line, either.  DT Sylvester Williams is an absolute load.  DE Kareem Martin is too.  Between them they combine for 24.5 TFL, and in case you're wondering, only three teams in the country have more TFL than UNC.

Against Maryland we were facing statistically one of the best run defenses in the country, and we gashed 'em.  I don't see that happening here.  UNC has more playmakers than Maryland does; a lot more.  And no, using the GT game for optimism is a bad idea, and I think you know why that is.    Once you nullify Joe Vellano, you've more or less dealt with Maryland; UNC can bring them from every angle.  With an offensive line that's still finding itself, I'm awfully pessimistic about this part of the game.  It's such an ugly matchup that I'm getting a glass of rum, right now, to make the rest of the preview easier to write.  The rest of this post is brought to you by Sailor Jerry.

-- UVA pass offense vs. UNC pass defense

Quarterbacks:
Michael Rocco: 136/221, 61.5%; 1,585 yards, 12 TDs, 8 INTs; 7.17 yards/attempt
Phillip Sims: 103/179, 57.5%; 1,203 yards, 8 TDs, 4 INTs; 6.72 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 42 rec., 521 yards, 4 TDs
Perry Jones: 41 rec., 341 yards, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
282.4 yards/game, 7.0 yards/attempt
80th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)

UNC defense:
254.2 yards/game, 7.2 yards/attempt
68th of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)

I don't like quarterback platoons.  What do I like even less?  Screwing around with what's working.  And I hate to admit it but the platoon is working.  It shouldn't, but it is.  It shouldn't work because Rocco is a quarterback that needs to not be looking over his shoulder in order to produce.  And Sims needs experience, not half-games, to learn to make the touch and timing throws.  And yet here we are, 4-6 instead of 2-8.

UNC has a very good pass rush, and it's going to come from the interior because Sylvester Williams and Kevin Reddick (the linebacker) have 10.5 of UNC's 24 sacks.  Kareem Martin will also be a problem.  Pass rush aside, though, UNC can be thrown on.  Lots of quarterbacks this year have had very good days against UNC's defense.  I suspect we may see something similar to what we saw against Miami, with the middle available for use.  UNC has better safeties than Miami does, but Gene Robinson isn't a pass defender and neither is linebacker Tommy Heffernan.

UNC's corners, Jabari Price and Tim Scott, are solid.  But one thing that's been key to UVA's aerial assualt these past two games is that we're finally getting the contributions we've been expecting from all sides of the receiving corps.  I think Jake McGee will be a matchup nightmare for UNC.  Of the three linebacker-types on the field (Robinson, Reddick, Heffernan) the best-equipped to handle McGee is Reddick, who has by far the best combination of size and athleticism.  As you might imagine this means opportunity.  If this is executed well, UNC can be forced to pick a poison: risk McGee being open for big chunks of yardage, or take Reddick out of the run defense.

This is not to mention the effectiveness of the newfound three-headed monster at WR.  What it means to the offense to have Dominique Terrell playing at a high level is now as plain as it could ever have been.  Terrell, Jennings, and Tim Smith can give secondaries nightmares if they all play to the level they've each demonstrated.  Then it's all on the quarterback just to get the ball there.

That's not really as easy as it might sound, given that Sims and Rocco have now alternated being the star of the game.  It seems that one reason the platoon has worked is that both are prone to awful games, but both of them having the same bad game is less likely.  And this game is going to be on them, because the run game won't serve much of a purpose except to hopefully keep the Heels honest.

-- UNC run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Giovani Bernard: 142 carries, 1,008 yards, 7.1 avg., 11 TDs
A.J. Blue: 73 carries, 393 yards, 5.4 avg, 8 TDs

UNC offense:
201.0 yards/game, 5.19 yards/attempt
18th of 124 (national), 3rd of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
143.8 yards/game, 4.16 yards/attempt
66th of 124 (national), 8th of 12 (ACC)

Scary.  Dude: this guy is averaging 7 yards a carry!  We have a pretty good run defense.  And I'm legitimately concerned what this guy Bernard is gonna do to it, especially if we break out the same tackling performance we did last Saturday.  Yes, Duke Johnson is pretty good himself, but it wasn't just on him that the tackling effort was crummy.

UNC brings a complete set of weapons to the fight.  Gio Bernard would be getting Heisman consideration if he hadn't missed a couple games with a knee injury.  A 262-yard performance against Virginia Tech inflates his numbers a little bit, but still.  There's your workhorse.  A.J. Blue is the bulldozing short-yardage brute; at 6'2", 225, he's a very effective goal-line and fourth-down hammer.  Romar Morris is the change-of-pace scatback.  All three average better than five yards a carry.

There's a very solid offensive line, too.  It's missing one piece: RT Brennan Williams went down in the Duke game and is lost for the season.  The rest of the line is there, and it's good.

UVA has its work cut out for it.  The matchup between lines will be huge.  Either side has the capability to claim ownership of the trenches.  The tackling must be much better than it was against Miami, or all is lost.  I think if Heel fans are looking for Bernard to roll with 7 yards a carry, they'll be disappointed; he has, in fact, been trending gradually downwards ever since the VT game, to the point where GT's horrible defense actually held him under five yards a carry.  If the Hoos can do that, it would neutralize a massive piece of UNC's attack.  Not sure they will, but there has to be a correlation between losing Williams and the downward trend in Bernard's numbers, hasn't there?

-- UNC pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Bryn Renner: 219/347, 63.1%; 2,736 yards, 20 TDs, 7 INTs; 7.89 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Erik Highsmith: 46 rec., 511 yards, 2 TDs
Giovani Bernard: 38 rec., 411 yards, 4 TDs

UNC offense:
287.7 yards/game, 7.9 yards/attempt
33rd of 124 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
205.3 yards/game, 6.4 yards/attempt
29th of 124 (national), 2nd of 12 (ACC)

Quietly, sneakily, UVA has brought to bear one of the best pass defenses in the country.  That's without a lot of sacks and with a super-young secondary.  (I think that the lack of sacks has, in a perverse way, made our pass defense look better.  Most teams' pass rush is good enough to get to the quarterback.  Ours is not, but it's good enough to almost get there, and to bat down low-thrown passes.  That means that most teams get their sacks included in their run defense stats, while our pass rush that almost gets there has those plays turn into incomplete passes instead.)

Anyway, that's the good news.  The bad news is that our defense had no answer whatsoever for Larry Fedora's spread attack last year when he was employing it at Southern Miss.  Maurice Canady is doubtful for this game, but let's hope that's premature the way Eli Harold was "out" last week and then was not.  UVA will need to employ its full depth chart in the secondary, because Fedora is a spread coach and likes three-wide formations.  Like UVA, he uses the full range of options in pass-catching.  Gio Bernard gets a lot of receptions, and why wouldn't he?  I would get that guy the ball too.  Tight end Eric Ebron actually leads the team in receiving yards.  Erik Highsmith, at 6'3", will be a difficult cover for UVA's smallish corners, as will Quinshad Davis (36 catches, 463 yards) at 6'4".

You'll recall that Southern Miss just killed us last year with shortish completions delivered with deadly accuracy.  When Renner is really firing, he can do the same thing.  But he's prone to the occasional off day, which he had in a loss to Wake Forest and a narrow win over Miami.  Neither are good pass defenses.

Renner is a right-hander, but UVA might be well-advised to put pass rushers Ausar Walcott and Eli Harold on his throwing side, so as to avoid LT James Hurst and run them at Travis Bond instead, who's slid over from guard to fill Williams's spot at tackle.  Don't expect much, though.  UNC has only allowed 10 sacks all year.  This one's on the secondary; they must be effective, or they'll allow UNC's offense to be multidimensional and exceedingly difficult to stop.

-- Outlook

They have a good run defense, Giovani Bernard, an efficient passing attack, and one of the better O-lines in the conference.  Why are the Heels only 6-4, with losses to two of their instate rivals?  Search me.  I believe Heels fans would chalk it up to a defense that's not as good as it looks on paper, and perhaps the growing pains of learning a new system on both sides of the ball.

All I can go by is what my own eyes tell me, though.  UNC looked pretty good in the VT game, and on paper, they're tough as well.  Plus, by the looks of things, they didn't spend one second of their bye week prepping for Georgia Tech, and just went all-in on Virginia prep.  I suspect the loss of placekicker Casey Barth will be worse on paper than in real life; replacement Thomas Moore has kicked in games before (most of last season) and isn't a disaster.  UVA will have to force UNC into a worse game than their on-paper averages have shown this season, and play better than they did last week.  It's a tough hill to climb.

-- Prediction summary

-- UVA's backs average about 2.5 yards a carry.
-- Jake McGee has a big game, with a per-catch average of about 15 yards and at least 3 receptions.
-- UVA's quarterbacks combine for at least a 300-yard passing game.
-- Giovani Bernard reverses his downward trend and averages about 5.5 yards a carry.
-- One of UNC's receivers has a six-catch day, or better.

Final score: UNC 31, UVA 21

-- Rest of the ACC

-- Florida State at Maryland, 12:00: Should be fun to see what happens when a freshman linebacker tries to throw against Florida State's defense.  FSU clinches the Atlantic with a win.

-- Virginia Tech at Boston College, 12:30: I'm not sure whether to root for VT, in case it sets up the Bowl Eligibility Bowl, or against them for obviousness.  Guess we'll know by late Thursday night.

-- Miami vs. South Florida, 3:00: The very real chance exists that the ACC could have just four bowl-eligible teams.  To avoid that, let's hope the 5-5 Canes don't biff this one.

-- Duke at Georgia Tech, 3:30: Will greatly simplify the Coastal race.

-- Wake Forest at Notre Dame, 3:30: I don't know about you but I already consider this an in-conference game.

-- NC State at Clemson, 3:30: Clemson will know by game time whether or not they can win the Coastal, and probably they can't.