let the games begin

PHEW.  I was planning on writing about four paragraphs on how this basketball team will lose at some point and we should enjoy this undefeated stuff to the fullest while it lasts but understand that it's coming to an end eventually and that's OK.  Miami drove home the point for me pretty well, though.

It's a lesson that now doesn't have to be learned the hard way, because UVA out-gutted and out-gunned the Hurricanes after Miami ran out of ammo.  I had forgotten, for a second there, that going on the road in the ACC is never to be taken for granted.  Shame.  Won't make that mistake again.  At least not this year.

For at least a little while longer, though, we still get to enjoy the goose egg in the one place you really want to see it.  It's not to be sneezed at; the Hoos survived on a night when half the remaining undefeated teams in the country took a loss.  That leaves just UVA, Duke, and Kentucky.  The SEC is a putz league, the weakest of the Power 5 and probably worse than the Big East as well, and very likely to leave UK unblemished for a good long time.  But I sort of hope Duke stays unbeaten til January 31 (and obviously, I hope we do too) to set up a matchup for the ages.

-- Marial Shayok deserves a ton of credit.  Forced into crunch-time minutes when Brogdon fouled out, his defense made a huge difference.  Not just in the two blocks that he had after that point; he also did a masterful job limiting Angel Rodriguez.  I suspect having much fresher legs had a lot to do with it; nevertheless, it was a huge game for him.  Perrantes and Anderson hit the shots and played 45 minutes apiece, and Atkins, very quietly, had a terrific game too.  But if defense comes first, Shayok gets the first nod.

-- Speaking of fresher legs, Mike Curtis certainly gets a nod for that game too.  "They look tired all of a sudden," I thought as Miami brought up the ball; the announcers were all over it at the same time.

-- One way to tell your team has arrived?  Besides all the other really obvious ones, I mean.  When the announcers assume you have a "senior-laden team" even when you don't.  Sorry, Shane Battier, only one senior here - but they sure do play like they were, don't they?

-- Yes, that was a foul on Justin Anderson at the end there.  But also, yes, he was fouled pretty blatantly in OT, too.  The announcers made a thing about him kicking his legs out, which was stupid because a flying defender landed on his arm.

-- Against Davidson, the defense gave up some easy layups, and on those plays it was perfectly highlighted why Tony's post defense philosophy is "ball-me-man."  The Wildcat post men managed to seal out their defender and prevent any help, which is poison to the pack-line defense; any time you see plays like that, the defender is out of position.  Most man defenses emphasize fighting for position in the post and having defenders try and prevent the opposing bigs from gaining position too close to the rim.  Tony doesn't much care where the opposing bigs post up - as long as the defenders are in the right position, they can deny entry passes, help on drives (and usually stop them before they start), switch to the other side to help a helper, and throw a quick double-team.

-- ESPN has been spreading the UVA love far and wide these past couple weeks.  Anthony Gill and Justin Anderson on the Wooden Watch.**  A #1 seed in bracketology.  Articles about how awesome the offense is and how the rest of the ACC will give UVA a run for its money.  Notice how that last one is not the other way around.  UVA is the hunted.

Why should we care what the WWL thinks?  Because perception is reality in the recruiting world.  The ultimate goal is not to be able to win the battle of the recruiting rankings (even though, for now, UVA sits atop the 24/7 rankings after winning the commitment of Sacha Killeya-Jones).  The ultimate goal is for Tony to be able to walk into any gym in the country, say, "I want that guy right there," and be at the top of that guy's list immediately.

That Medcalf article, by the way, the second one linked, I feel like it's part of a slightly disturbing trend, which is to forget that Louisville is a major contender just because they lost to Kentucky.  I would not like to see that team unleash its considerable athletic talent upon a perception of being disrespected.  It's not Duke and UVA and everyone else; it's Duke, UVA, Louisville, and maybe UNC if they get their shit together, and if they don't, Notre Dame.

**Unless someone else totally runs away with the award, Jahlil Okafor will win because he wears the tiebreaker on his chest.  But some All-American selections are not out of the question.

-- You know how I said we should drop Maryland from our schedules and add Georgetown just for spite, because Maryland won't play Georgetown?  Bwa-ha-ha the lacrosse schedulers listened.  Maryland is no more, and UVA will host the Hoyas as the final game of the season.

Actually, it's best looked at like this: Maryland is not replaced on the schedule.  There are only 13 games instead of last year's 14, but that's to be expected because the ACC was temporarily larger last year.  Georgetown - which hasn't been good at all lately - is Bellarmine's replacement, and UVA also dropped longtime OOC opponent Mount St. Mary's in favor of the recently-not-shitty St. Joseph's Hawks.  St. Joe's was once a laughingstock and is now very middle-of-the-road.  I'd still say, it's an easier schedule than last year, a bit.

That's OK, I still prefer to think we replaced Maryland with Georgetown, and if Georgetown had a football team of any consequence I'd start the Put-Them-In-The-ACC bandwagon in a hot minute.

-- One thing that will sting and make that road harder is the loss of Greg Danseglio to Maryland.  All the more reason to be glad they're gone, I suppose; Danseglio was half of a veteran long-pole duo that would've formed the core of the defense.  Now it's Tanner Scales and inexperience.  UVA also looks to be missing their one over-.500 face-off guy from last year, Mick Parks; knee surgery is the message-board chatter.  This is a very young team this year and the leading candidate to finish 5 of 5 in the ACC.

-- Speaking of which, sharp-eyed watchers noticed this earlier, I didn't but I think it's fair to be excused because I don't think the ACC even bothered to announce it - placing 5th of 5 in the conference this year earns you a trip to the tournament in Philly anyway, only you'll be playing Penn.  Creative.  And no doubt an easy sell to Penn - no travel expenses and an RPI-booster against an ACC team that you'll have a decent shot at beating.

-- I finally got off my ass and finished a game highlight, and there's another one on the way very shortly.  I randomly picked last year's Maryland game off the considerable backlog.  It's linked in the video library there.  I don't think that backlog will be fully addressed til the summer, but I'm settling into a routine of working on them and I can at least get you new stuff on a steady basis.

game preview: North Carolina

Date/Time: Saturday, April 6; 3:30

TV: ESPN3

Record against the Heels: 48-24

Last meeting: UNC 11, UVA 9; 4/20/12, Charlottesville - ACC tournament

Last game: Md. 9, UVA 7 (3/30); UNC 11, JHU 10 (3/30)

Rankings: UVA #19/#18, UNC #6/#4

Efficiency stats:

Faceoffs:
UVA: 53.6% (#17)
UNC: 52.5% (#22)

Clearing (offense):
UVA: 92.7 (#2)
UNC: 87.2 (#24)

Clearing (defense):
UVA: 83.6% (#19)
UNC: 85.4% (#33)

Scoring % (offense):
UVA: 32.8% (#28)
UNC: 37.0% (#13)

Scoring % (defense):
UVA: 32.2% (#29)
UNC: 31.0% (#22)

O-rating:
UVA: 16.25 (#17)
UNC: 18.87 (#9)

D-rating:
UVA: 13.12 (#17)
UNC: 12.77 (#14)

(Ratings are my KenPom-esque measures of efficiency for lacrosse. Numbers are schedule-adjusted. National average is about 15.1.)

Not gonna waste a lot of time blowing flowers up your ass here.  This is gut-check time for the laxers, because a loss here all but destroys UVA's tournament hopes.  I'm beginning to think this season is simply the lacrosse gods' way of devising a new way for Duke to torture UVA lacrosse, since losing to both UNC and Duke would 99.9% officially end those tourney wishes, with Duke doing the dirty work.  But first we have to lose to Carolina.

-- UVA on offense

I've already partly gone over UVA's offensive woes.  They don't have a dynamic playmaker, they have less athleticism than we're used to seeing, and they don't have the ability to break up the packed-in defenses opponents are deploying that have made settled-situation offense so damn difficult this year.  I'd like to see them turn Ryan Tucker's shot loose - Tucker has the hardest shot on the team by far and if he just indiscriminately slings it in the direction of the net, the worst that can happen is that it bounces off some defender, whose new welt makes him think twice about standing in the way next time.  (This is mostly a joke.  Tucker's shot is hard but hasn't been any more effective than anyone else's; goalies have a .613 save percentage against him, second only to Charlie Streep.)

Failing that, the coaches have got to find a working lineup combination.  I don't think having Owen Van Arsdale out there as much as they do is helping, as he doesn't make up for his small size with quickness.  It might be worse than usual against Carolina; Kieran McDonald is 6'4" and if UNC gets Jake Bailey back from injury, he's 6'5".  That makes a fairly formidable-sized back line of defense that 5-foot-not-much OVA - and the rest of the offense, really - will have trouble with.

Carolina is godawfully thin at goalie, with every netminder but freshman Kieran Burke injured in some way or another.  Burke has started every game and acquitted himself decently with a .538 save percentage.  He's playing well enough to give UVA trouble, anyway, as we have made a habit of firing some truly stoppable shots this year.

Overall UNC is a little less stout on defense than the opposition we've seen recently, but not much.  Hopkins and Maryland have better D-ratings (12.20 and 11.50, respectively) but the difference is small enough that I don't think it'll make a major dent.  It's possible that UNC's shifting lineups may help us some; injuries have thinned out their defense a little and forced changes to their starting three.  Still, UVA's hopes, as usual, lie in transition, and the chances of scoring drop dramatically once the play settles down.

-- UVA on defense

It's kind of a shame the goalies haven't been playing well, because the defenders deserve some kudos for their play.  The long-stick guys have been more or less the team's strong point all season.  They broke down against Hopkins but did a nice job keeping Maryland in check.  We need more of that Maryland stuff and less of the Hopkins stuff, because UNC, as usual, has an excellent offense.

UNC is constructed somewhat like Hopkins (uh-oh) in that the offense is mostly generated by the attackmen, with midfielders playing only a supporting role.  Marcus Holman is a top playmaker and scorer (24 G, 23 A); Joey Sankey (26 G, 10 A) is the finisher.  This is a small group; Sankey stands a mere 5'6" and third attackman Jimmy Bitter at 5'9".  Holman towers over them both at 5'11".  Small but very quick, all of them.  The top midfield threats are Davey Emala and Chad Tutton, both decent scorers.

The matchup should be a good one for UVA, since it's the short-sticks who've been much more porous this year than the long-sticks, even accounting for the obvious.  Part of that is because we've seen a lot more cases of guys caught playing defense who shouldn't be.  It's been much harder to sub in short-stick defenders, which keeps Blake Riley and Bobby Hill on the bench more than they should be.  Perhaps Dom Starsia was onto something when he said he'd be using Chris LaPierre on offense more.  Use him on offense so you can use him on defense.  Anyway, I said "should be" good.  In theory, since guys like Scott McWilliams and Greg Danseglio are having solid years.  In practice, Maryland is a much more midfield-heavy team, and UVA did alright, whereas Hopkins is an attack-heavy team and smoked us.

Anyway, here's where I get all existential and depressing: it won't matter unless we can score.  If the offense goes like it has, the defense will only determine whether it's a close one or a blowout.

-- Outlook

Not so good, as usual.  Magic 8-ball says we don't make the tournament this year.  It's possible, given the schedule we play, that a win here could move us into the field in this week's bracketology, but even then remember the odds will be against us.  But unless something has really changed in practice this week, I don't see the offense having the ability to pull out of its malaise.

Final score: UNC 12, UVA 8