PHEW. I was planning on writing about four paragraphs on how this basketball team will lose at some point and we should enjoy this undefeated stuff to the fullest while it lasts but understand that it's coming to an end eventually and that's OK. Miami drove home the point for me pretty well, though.
It's a lesson that now doesn't have to be learned the hard way, because UVA out-gutted and out-gunned the Hurricanes after Miami ran out of ammo. I had forgotten, for a second there, that going on the road in the ACC is never to be taken for granted. Shame. Won't make that mistake again. At least not this year.
For at least a little while longer, though, we still get to enjoy the goose egg in the one place you really want to see it. It's not to be sneezed at; the Hoos survived on a night when half the remaining undefeated teams in the country took a loss. That leaves just UVA, Duke, and Kentucky. The SEC is a putz league, the weakest of the Power 5 and probably worse than the Big East as well, and very likely to leave UK unblemished for a good long time. But I sort of hope Duke stays unbeaten til January 31 (and obviously, I hope we do too) to set up a matchup for the ages.
-- Marial Shayok deserves a ton of credit. Forced into crunch-time minutes when Brogdon fouled out, his defense made a huge difference. Not just in the two blocks that he had after that point; he also did a masterful job limiting Angel Rodriguez. I suspect having much fresher legs had a lot to do with it; nevertheless, it was a huge game for him. Perrantes and Anderson hit the shots and played 45 minutes apiece, and Atkins, very quietly, had a terrific game too. But if defense comes first, Shayok gets the first nod.
-- Speaking of fresher legs, Mike Curtis certainly gets a nod for that game too. "They look tired all of a sudden," I thought as Miami brought up the ball; the announcers were all over it at the same time.
-- One way to tell your team has arrived? Besides all the other really obvious ones, I mean. When the announcers assume you have a "senior-laden team" even when you don't. Sorry, Shane Battier, only one senior here - but they sure do play like they were, don't they?
-- Yes, that was a foul on Justin Anderson at the end there. But also, yes, he was fouled pretty blatantly in OT, too. The announcers made a thing about him kicking his legs out, which was stupid because a flying defender landed on his arm.
-- Against Davidson, the defense gave up some easy layups, and on those plays it was perfectly highlighted why Tony's post defense philosophy is "ball-me-man." The Wildcat post men managed to seal out their defender and prevent any help, which is poison to the pack-line defense; any time you see plays like that, the defender is out of position. Most man defenses emphasize fighting for position in the post and having defenders try and prevent the opposing bigs from gaining position too close to the rim. Tony doesn't much care where the opposing bigs post up - as long as the defenders are in the right position, they can deny entry passes, help on drives (and usually stop them before they start), switch to the other side to help a helper, and throw a quick double-team.
-- ESPN has been spreading the UVA love far and wide these past couple weeks. Anthony Gill and Justin Anderson on the Wooden Watch.** A #1 seed in bracketology. Articles about how awesome the offense is and how the rest of the ACC will give UVA a run for its money. Notice how that last one is not the other way around. UVA is the hunted.
Why should we care what the WWL thinks? Because perception is reality in the recruiting world. The ultimate goal is not to be able to win the battle of the recruiting rankings (even though, for now, UVA sits atop the 24/7 rankings after winning the commitment of Sacha Killeya-Jones). The ultimate goal is for Tony to be able to walk into any gym in the country, say, "I want that guy right there," and be at the top of that guy's list immediately.
That Medcalf article, by the way, the second one linked, I feel like it's part of a slightly disturbing trend, which is to forget that Louisville is a major contender just because they lost to Kentucky. I would not like to see that team unleash its considerable athletic talent upon a perception of being disrespected. It's not Duke and UVA and everyone else; it's Duke, UVA, Louisville, and maybe UNC if they get their shit together, and if they don't, Notre Dame.
**Unless someone else totally runs away with the award, Jahlil Okafor will win because he wears the tiebreaker on his chest. But some All-American selections are not out of the question.
-- You know how I said we should drop Maryland from our schedules and add Georgetown just for spite, because Maryland won't play Georgetown? Bwa-ha-ha the lacrosse schedulers listened. Maryland is no more, and UVA will host the Hoyas as the final game of the season.
Actually, it's best looked at like this: Maryland is not replaced on the schedule. There are only 13 games instead of last year's 14, but that's to be expected because the ACC was temporarily larger last year. Georgetown - which hasn't been good at all lately - is Bellarmine's replacement, and UVA also dropped longtime OOC opponent Mount St. Mary's in favor of the recently-not-shitty St. Joseph's Hawks. St. Joe's was once a laughingstock and is now very middle-of-the-road. I'd still say, it's an easier schedule than last year, a bit.
That's OK, I still prefer to think we replaced Maryland with Georgetown, and if Georgetown had a football team of any consequence I'd start the Put-Them-In-The-ACC bandwagon in a hot minute.
-- One thing that will sting and make that road harder is the loss of Greg Danseglio to Maryland. All the more reason to be glad they're gone, I suppose; Danseglio was half of a veteran long-pole duo that would've formed the core of the defense. Now it's Tanner Scales and inexperience. UVA also looks to be missing their one over-.500 face-off guy from last year, Mick Parks; knee surgery is the message-board chatter. This is a very young team this year and the leading candidate to finish 5 of 5 in the ACC.
-- Speaking of which, sharp-eyed watchers noticed this earlier, I didn't but I think it's fair to be excused because I don't think the ACC even bothered to announce it - placing 5th of 5 in the conference this year earns you a trip to the tournament in Philly anyway, only you'll be playing Penn. Creative. And no doubt an easy sell to Penn - no travel expenses and an RPI-booster against an ACC team that you'll have a decent shot at beating.
-- I finally got off my ass and finished a game highlight, and there's another one on the way very shortly. I randomly picked last year's Maryland game off the considerable backlog. It's linked in the video library there. I don't think that backlog will be fully addressed til the summer, but I'm settling into a routine of working on them and I can at least get you new stuff on a steady basis.
Showing posts with label lacrosse schedule. Show all posts
Showing posts with label lacrosse schedule. Show all posts
Monday, January 5, 2015
Saturday, February 1, 2014
2014 lacrosse schedule
(For anyone looking for the updated ACC basketball sims, they are on that page, linked here.)
For the first time in a while, the lacrosse landscape changes from our perspective. Realignment is a fact of life in this sport, with the conferences shifting on a yearly basis. This year is no different - a new southern conference appears on the scene, the ECAC gets pillaged, and the ACC gets two new teams for a temporary total of six.
Not only does the conference look different, but UVA's schedule gets its most drastic makeover in years. Notre Dame is added by virtue of conference affiliation. There's a new season opener - Drexel remains on the schedule, but this season's first game will be against Loyola, a team UVA hasn't played in I don't know how long. And there's a new instate team, Richmond, which of course will be included - in fact, UVA is Richmond's first-ever varsity opponent. All in all, Loyola, Rutgers, Richmond, and Notre Dame appear while Vermont, Stony Brook, and Ohio State depart.
Of course, we'll be looking for a major rebound from last year's disappointment, but analysis of our own team will come next week - for now, just the opponents.
Here's a quick guide to what you'll see:
Conference: their conference, I guess
Preseason rank: media poll and coaches' poll, respectively
2013 computer: Laxpower's rank, out of 63
2013 record: figure it out
Last season: what happened when we played them
2013 O-rating: see below
2013 D-rating: see below
TV: if yes
O-rating and D-rating are my own concoction that I've included in lacrosse analysis for a while now; they consist of a KenPom-esque set of numbers that tempo-free the stats and give you an idea of the efficiency of each team. National average for 2013 was 15.33. Roughly (not precisely) over 16.5 puts you in the top quartile and below 13.5 in the bottom quartile, for offense; vice versa, obviously, for defense.
Loyola - Thursday, Feb. 6 - Home
Conference: Patriot
Preseason rank: 16th / 12th
2013 computer: 6th
2013 record: 11-5
Last season: N/A
2013 O-rating: 17.66 (10th)
2013 D-rating: 12.95 (11th)
TV: none
UVA hasn't played the Greyhounds since 1991; since then, they've raised their profile slightly on the national scene. A national title will do that. Loyola took home the crown in 2012. Last season they weren't quite able to match that lofty standard, but they did have a very good year regardless, and made the tourney as an at-large pick. This year they hop from the ECAC to the Patriot League in an all-sports move to that conference, helping to make the Patriot League lacrosse's largest with nine teams.
The challenge in facing Loyola will be a very strong veteran trio of attackmen in Justin Ward, Mike Sawyer, and Nikko Pontrello. Ward is a versatile playmaker; Sawyer potted 36 goals in 2013. Senior goalie Jack Runkel also returns, as do one defensemen and their starting LSM, all upperclassmen. It's a steep challenge to start the season, more so than Drexel usually provides, and Drexel's no slouch of a team. Loyola is a veteran bunch that's used to success and will be jonesing for a big win to start the season.
Richmond - Saturday, Feb. 8 - Road
Conference: Atlantic Sun
Preseason rank: NR / NR
2013 computer: N/A
2013 record: N/A
Last season: N/A
2013 O-rating: N/A
2013 D-rating: N/A
TV: none
Richmond is one of four new teams on the scene this year (the others are Boston U., Furman, and Monmouth.) Their accession to Division I helped spur the creation of a long-expected southern conference, which this year will be the Atlantic Sun and in following years, the SoCon.
As a new team, there's obviously no past data to go on, but....it's not like they're gonna be good. The vast majority of the team, of course, is underclassmen. Even though the game's in Richmond it's likely to be played in front of a partisan UVA crowd and should be a blowout.
Drexel - Saturday, Feb. 15 - Away
Conference: CAA
Preseason rank: NR / NR
2013 computer: 24th
2013 record: 11-4
Last season: W, 13-12
2013 O-rating: 18.66 (8th)
2013 D-rating: 16.81 (46th)
TV: none
There are two symptoms here of the altered schedule - one, that Drexel won't be the season-opening game for the first time in over 10 years, and two, UVA used to cram the early-season schedule with midweek games and play none at all between their big Saturday games in the second half of the year (the Hopkinses and ACC games of the world); this year there's a full week between Richmond and Drexel and another full week between Drexel and the next game, Rutgers.
The Dragons weren't a deep offensive team last year, with really only seven players they could rely on for consistent scoring. (By which I mean a goal a game, at least.) Four return: midfielders Ben McIntosh and Ryan Belka, swingman Frank Fusco, and attackman Nick Trizano. McIntosh scored 38 goals last year, leading the team, and is also the leading returning distributor. Drexel also returns the lion's share of their defense, but that wasn't a good defense last year and relied on two freshman goalies. Cal Winkelman took the job midseason from Will Gabrielsen and was a clear but modest improvement, registering a .514 save percentage. Drexel returns a high-quality faceoff man in Nick Saputo, but must fix their defense and fill some large holes and find some depth on offense. This could be a bellwether game - UVA should find this game medium-easy if the Hoos are back to usual strength and may struggle if not.
Rutgers - Saturday, Feb. 22 - Home
Conference: Big East
Preseason rank: NR / NR
2013 computer: 44th
2013 record: 2-13
Last season: N/A
2013 O-rating: 13.85 (45th)
2013 D-rating: 15.26 (30th)
TV: none
Another unfamiliar opponent rolls into Klockner, and the first of three future and totally untraditional Big Ten teams on the schedule. This is Rutgers' last season in the Big East before next year's formation of Big Ten lacrosse.
Their 2-13 record last year was rotten as hell, made worse by the fact that their only wins were over Manhattan and Wagner, two of lacrosse's absolute worst. The record belied the stats, though; both the Laxpower computer and my tempo-free agree they weren't quite as bad as that record. Their downfall was a lack of scoring. Attackman Scott Klimchak scored 32, but was one of only six players with double-digit goals, and only one of those had more than 14.
The defense was at least respectable, though, finishing just inside the top half of the tempo-free ratings, thanks in large part to standout freshman goalie Will Alleyne. Alleyne posted a save percentage of .596, an excellent number, let alone for a freshman. He and nearly all of last season's team return, including elite FOGO Joseph Nardella, who boasted a .622 win percentage. The Scarlet Knights aren't really a Big East contender and probably no threat to make the NCAA tournament, but they should be much improved over last year and finish with a much more respectable record.
Mount St. Mary's - Tuesday, Feb. 25 - Away
Conference: NEC
Preseason rank: NR / NR
2013 computer: 45th
2013 record: 6-9
Last season: W, 18-11
2013 O-rating: 15.91 (20th)
2013 D-rating: 18.52 (53rd)
TV: none
It goes to show that records can be deceiving, when Mount St. Mary's is a notch below Rutgers in the computer rankings despite winning four more games. Conference competition has much to do with it, of course, as the NEC is one of the lowlier in the country.
Lowly is exactly where Mount St. Mary's will be this year. The team was rapaciously hit with eligibility expiration. Of the 155 goals and 90 assists the team scored last year, returning players account for 7 and 1, respectively. Absolutely mind-blowing losses. Nobody's going to recognize this team this year. And despite a pretty solid offense last year, the Mountaineers had a porous disaster zone of a defense. Having to replace everyone from the goalie to the attackers to the FOGO isn't going to help that situation - there's like, one lone defenseman starter returning. The Mount has been somewhat competitive of late, more so than usual, but this should be a blowout of VMI proportions. The only drama will be how soon we call off the dogs, and can the third and fourth string finish the quest for 20 goals?
Syracuse - Friday, Feb. 28 - Home
Conference: ACC
Preseason rank: 2nd / 1st
2013 computer: 10th
2013 record: 16-4
Last season: L, 9-8
2013 O-rating: 17.47 (12th)
2013 D-rating: 13.02 (12th)
TV: ESPN3 (ESPNU delay)
These guys are showing up in more or less the same place on the schedule, only now it counts for the conference. Syracuse's addition to the ACC, as you know if you've been reading long, is highly welcome around these parts, on account of us being the only ACC team that already played them every year anyway.
The Orange are picked as one of the national favorites by the media; I might place them a touch below that level, as they lose a couple of very crucial offensive players and they get only average goaltending from Dominic Lamolinara and below-average face-off work from Chris Daddio. They'll get excellent scoring punch from a top attack line of Kevin Rice, Dylan Donahue, and Derek Maltz. These guys are small but plenty talented (well, Maltz is a big dude, but the other two are nowhere near it.) Syracuse will also get to add Nicky Galasso to the lineup this year, a familiar name from his time at North Carolina. Galasso has struggled with injuries during his career but, if healthy, could be that X-factor that gives Syracuse the nudge they need to be a real national contender.
Cornell - Saturday, Mar. 8 - Away
Conference: Ivy League
Preseason rank: 18th / 16th
2013 computer: 1st
2013 record: 14-4
Last season: L, 12-11
2013 O-rating: 20.35 (4th)
2013 D-rating: 11.94 (4th)
TV: none (WTF)
By most metrics Cornell was one of the country's best teams last year and proved it with a trip to the Final Four as an unseeded team, utterly demolishing the 6 and 3 seeds along the way before falling in a close one to eventual champion Duke. The voters have given them a very lukewarm chance to repeat that performance, no doubt having much to do with the newfound large holes in their lineup.
Elite scorers Rob Pannell and Steve Mock are gone, as well as several other scorers and longtime goalie A.J. Fiore. Some pieces remain: Connor Buczek and Matt Donovan are the top two returning scorers, with 35 and 27 goals, respectively. Doug Tesoriero has always been an extremely tough face-off man, and two of three starting defensemen return in Tom Freshour and Jordan Stevens. But the early part of the season will be spent learning where their offense is coming from, and to further the difficulty, they'll be doing it with a new coach after Ben DeLuca was fired over a hazing investigation. Cornell may spend a year re-finding their way in a tough Ivy League, with Princeton, Yale, and Penn all ranked ahead in the media poll.
Notre Dame - Sunday, Mar. 16 - Away
Conference: ACC
Preseason rank: 5th / 5th
2013 computer: 15th
2013 record: 11-5
Last season: N/A
2013 O-rating: 15.68 (24th)
2013 D-rating: 11.58 (3rd)
TV: ESPNUVA
Bringing the Domers into the conference - and expediting the process - gives the ACC a tournament autobid for the first time. It means having to play them, though. The Irish come into the conference after enough time among the nation's top teams to be taken seriously as an ACC-worthy team. They've long been known as one of the country's stiflingly elite defensive teams, with just enough offense to hold their own.
Most of their core offense returns, with starting attackmen Matt Kavanagh (32 goals in 2013) and Conor Doyle likely to be joined by top second-liner John Scioscia. Jim Marlatt is the top midfield scoring option and a solid two-way player, and two of three starting D-men return with Stephen O'Hara and hulking senior Bryan Buglione.** There's every reason to believe Notre Dame will be just as tough to score on as always and probably again good enough on offense to make a run at the Final Four.
(The Italian name here is a little bit of a jarring presence among a roster rather fittingly loaded with Irish ones. Seriously, even for a preppy sport like lacrosse, it's noticeable, with O'Hara, Kelly, Connolly, Doyle, Corrigan, etc. all up and down the list, as well as multiple instances of Pat, Liam, Conor, Ryan, and Kyle. It's like the Irish national team instead of the Fighting Irish.)
Johns Hopkins - Saturday, Mar. 22 - Home
Conference: Independent
Preseason rank: 13th / 11th
2013 computer: 3rd
2013 record: 9-5
Last season: L, 15-8
2013 O-rating: 16.79 (14th)
2013 D-rating: 11.17 (1st)
TV: ESPNUVA
Part of the reason the Big Ten is on my shit list these days is because of Hopkins. A natural fit in the ACC, they chose to go B1G for next year - the conference and the school wanted access to each other's research powerhouses, and the need to add a sixth lacrosse school was really more of an excuse than a driving force.
Anyway. Neither here nor there for this season. Like Cornell, the voters are skeptical of the Hop's ability to return to the national elite after being slammed by graduation. Offensive ringleader Wells Stanwick does return, but 17-goal scorer Ryan Brown is the only other primary returner on offense. The Blue Jays must also replace their outstanding netminder Pierce Bassett as well as most of their defense. Nobody seriously expects them to drop out of the picture entirely, as Stanwick might singlehandedly keep them in a lot of games and they should be able to find some offense where needed. But they're not quite the usual dreadnought this year.
VMI - Tuesday, Mar. 25 - Home
Conference: Atlantic Sun
Preseason rank: NR / NR
2013 computer: 62nd
2013 record: 1-12
Last season: W, 18-4
2013 O-rating: 9.19 (63rd)
2013 D-rating: 20.31 (62nd)
TV: none
Ever little more than a scrimmage that counts, the VMI game moves to the middle of the season to accommodate the schedule shuffle. VMI is never good, they're not going to be good this year, and I'd suggest that the move to the A-Sun might be good for them except that they always get rocked even by the worst teams in the country. Like, Wagner, the only team to finish below them in Laxpower's computer. Losing their top two scorers and goalie to graduation is not bloody likely to improve their situation, and they'll probably go one-win even in their new conference of brand-new programs.
Maryland - Sunday, Mar. 30 - Away
Conference: ACC
Preseason rank: 6th / 6th
2013 computer: 5th
2013 record: 10-4
Last season: L, 9-7; W, 13-6
2013 O-rating: 18.36 (9th)
2013 D-rating: 12.26 (8th)
TV: ESPNUVA
Is this the last year for Hit A Terp With A Stick Week? I'm not sure how I feel about that exactly; Virginia-Maryland really should be a thing and the douche factor is rather less in lacrosse than in sports where the coach boasts about never losing to Virginia and then hilariously reels off long losing streaks to Virginia. On the other hand, if they don't value the game, why should we?
Defense should be Maryland's strong suit this year, with standout goalie Niko Amato in his senior year and all three starting defensemen - Casey Ikeda, Goran Murray, and Michael Ehrhardt - all back as well. Lately the Terps have relied on a balanced scoring attack, but most familiar names are out the door, with only Mike Chanenchuk and Jay Carlson returning among double-digit goal scorers from last season. Poll voters placed Maryland near the bottom of the ACC, but they'll at least be tough to score on.
North Carolina - Saturday, Apr. 5 - Away
Conference: ACC
Preseason rank: 3rd / 2nd
2013 computer: 2nd
2013 record: 13-4
Last season: L, 10-7; L, 16-13
2013 O-rating: 18.36 (9th)
2013 D-rating: 12.26 (8th)
TV: ESPNUVA
The defending ACC champs should be among the favorites to repeat this year. A couple of key losses will be overshadowed by returning scoring punch in Joey Sankey and Jimmy Bitter, both 30+ goal scorers in 2013. UNC will additionally have some real midfield sniping power in returning starter Chad Tutton and perhaps a second-liner from last year, Ryan Creighton, who put almost 90% of his shots on goal in 2013.
Turnover-generating defenseman Kieran McDonald is out the door this year, but Carolina is fairly deep on defense and should be able to replace him; not only that, but they rode a freshman goalie within a hair's breadth of the Final Four last season, so they should get high-quality net play from Kieran Burke this year and far into the future, too. Since the Heels attend a class-optional school (sorry, couldn't help myself) they should be well-focused on bringing back the ACC title to Chapel Hill and will be a formidable obstacle.
Duke - Friday, Apr. 11 - Home
Conference: ACC
Preseason rank: 1st / 3rd
2013 computer: 4th
2013 record: 16-5
Last season: L, 19-16
2013 O-rating: 20.93 (2nd)
2013 D-rating: 14.19 (20th)
TV: ESPNUVA
UVA' annual bugaboo comes into this season with the added distinction of being the defending national champs. Their modus operandi last season was to overwhelm with offense, and they came within a few hundredths of a point of being the most powerful offensive team in the nation. The two top goal-scorers, Jordan Wolf with 57 and Josh Dionne with 45, both return to ensure the Blue Devils' offense remains a nasty challenge. Playmaking attackman Case Matheis also returns, as do a couple of potentially powerful midfielders, sophomores Myles Jones and Deemer Class.
Not only is Duke's offense an absolute machine, but with FOGO Brendan Fowler they can play make-it-take-it; Fowler took 526 face-offs last year and won over 64%, setting an ACC record for face-offs won and winning the NCAA championship Most Outstanding Player. Senior defensemen Henry Lobb and Chris Hipps return to anchor the defense, and both stand 6'4". One weak point may be in net, where Kyle Turri unseated (the never much good) Dan Wigrizer last year, but still failed to reach a .500 save percentage.
Still, in the disagreement between the media and the coaches over who's the preseason favorite (the coaches picked Syracuse) I'd have to side with the media. Duke is an offensive juggernaut right now, and unlike Syracuse, brings back most of their best players. Call 'em the favorite to win the ACC and a leader in the national title race.
Bellarmine - Saturday, Apr. 19 - Home
Conference: ECAC
Preseason rank: NR / NR
2013 computer: 28th
2013 record: 7-7
Last season: W, 12-7
2013 O-rating: 12.11 (57th)
2013 D-rating: 12.12 (7th)
TV: ESPNUVA
Unlike in recent years past, this game takes place before the ACC tournament. Bellarmine has done a nice job building itself up to a competitive level despite jumping to D-I only as recently as 2006. This year, though, they face an uphill climb. Of their major scorers, only midfielder Cameron Gardner returns, and Bellarmine never was a prolific scoring team to begin with, ranking near the very bottom in offensive efficiency below such luminaries as Manhattan and Vermont. They'll also have to replace all-everything goalie Dillon Ward. The ECAC is an emaciated (and soon to be extinct) conference, having lost Denver and Loyola, but the Knights even so will find it tough to gain much ground.
*************************************************
It's tough to see a losing season in UVA lacrosse, but let's also keep in mind how close so many of the games really were. OT loss to Syracuse, one goal down to Cornell and OSU, two to Maryland. Flip a couple of those games and UVA is in the tournament, more than likely.
This year, the tournament is, as predicted, bigger, a change announced in the fall. The tourney goes to 18 teams, the inevitable result of the addition of auto-bid conferences, of which the ACC is now one. The four lowest-ranked autobid teams in the RPI will go to the play-ins (these almost certainly will be out of the A-East, A-Sun, NEC, and MAAC) but the upshot is that the chance for at-large bids stays just as it was last year, with eight available. (Edit: Actually, now that I think about it, one extra, since the ACC champ, which always took an at-large spot, now is accounted for in the autobids.) And also that winning the ACC tourney, which (despite the utter worthlessness of the POS ACC website, which says nothing about the subject) appears to be restricted to four teams. It'll be vital to not finish in the bottom two - and both polls have UVA doing just that. (We're 8th and 7th, but the coaches decided that the ACC completely owns lacrosse and put all six teams in the top seven.)
So we'll have to do something in the ACC besides lose every game, but certain other teams on the schedule - notably Cornell and Hopkins - also appear somewhat vulnerable. From just a schedule standpoint, UVA stands to improve, though we're not going to be seen as a top conference contender unless we pull off an upset or two.
For the first time in a while, the lacrosse landscape changes from our perspective. Realignment is a fact of life in this sport, with the conferences shifting on a yearly basis. This year is no different - a new southern conference appears on the scene, the ECAC gets pillaged, and the ACC gets two new teams for a temporary total of six.
Not only does the conference look different, but UVA's schedule gets its most drastic makeover in years. Notre Dame is added by virtue of conference affiliation. There's a new season opener - Drexel remains on the schedule, but this season's first game will be against Loyola, a team UVA hasn't played in I don't know how long. And there's a new instate team, Richmond, which of course will be included - in fact, UVA is Richmond's first-ever varsity opponent. All in all, Loyola, Rutgers, Richmond, and Notre Dame appear while Vermont, Stony Brook, and Ohio State depart.
Of course, we'll be looking for a major rebound from last year's disappointment, but analysis of our own team will come next week - for now, just the opponents.
Here's a quick guide to what you'll see:
Conference: their conference, I guess
Preseason rank: media poll and coaches' poll, respectively
2013 computer: Laxpower's rank, out of 63
2013 record: figure it out
Last season: what happened when we played them
2013 O-rating: see below
2013 D-rating: see below
TV: if yes
O-rating and D-rating are my own concoction that I've included in lacrosse analysis for a while now; they consist of a KenPom-esque set of numbers that tempo-free the stats and give you an idea of the efficiency of each team. National average for 2013 was 15.33. Roughly (not precisely) over 16.5 puts you in the top quartile and below 13.5 in the bottom quartile, for offense; vice versa, obviously, for defense.
Conference: Patriot
Preseason rank: 16th / 12th
2013 computer: 6th
2013 record: 11-5
Last season: N/A
2013 O-rating: 17.66 (10th)
2013 D-rating: 12.95 (11th)
TV: none
UVA hasn't played the Greyhounds since 1991; since then, they've raised their profile slightly on the national scene. A national title will do that. Loyola took home the crown in 2012. Last season they weren't quite able to match that lofty standard, but they did have a very good year regardless, and made the tourney as an at-large pick. This year they hop from the ECAC to the Patriot League in an all-sports move to that conference, helping to make the Patriot League lacrosse's largest with nine teams.
The challenge in facing Loyola will be a very strong veteran trio of attackmen in Justin Ward, Mike Sawyer, and Nikko Pontrello. Ward is a versatile playmaker; Sawyer potted 36 goals in 2013. Senior goalie Jack Runkel also returns, as do one defensemen and their starting LSM, all upperclassmen. It's a steep challenge to start the season, more so than Drexel usually provides, and Drexel's no slouch of a team. Loyola is a veteran bunch that's used to success and will be jonesing for a big win to start the season.
Richmond - Saturday, Feb. 8 - RoadConference: Atlantic Sun
Preseason rank: NR / NR
2013 computer: N/A
2013 record: N/A
Last season: N/A
2013 O-rating: N/A
2013 D-rating: N/A
TV: none
Richmond is one of four new teams on the scene this year (the others are Boston U., Furman, and Monmouth.) Their accession to Division I helped spur the creation of a long-expected southern conference, which this year will be the Atlantic Sun and in following years, the SoCon.
As a new team, there's obviously no past data to go on, but....it's not like they're gonna be good. The vast majority of the team, of course, is underclassmen. Even though the game's in Richmond it's likely to be played in front of a partisan UVA crowd and should be a blowout.
Conference: CAA
Preseason rank: NR / NR
2013 computer: 24th
2013 record: 11-4
Last season: W, 13-12
2013 O-rating: 18.66 (8th)
2013 D-rating: 16.81 (46th)
TV: none
There are two symptoms here of the altered schedule - one, that Drexel won't be the season-opening game for the first time in over 10 years, and two, UVA used to cram the early-season schedule with midweek games and play none at all between their big Saturday games in the second half of the year (the Hopkinses and ACC games of the world); this year there's a full week between Richmond and Drexel and another full week between Drexel and the next game, Rutgers.
The Dragons weren't a deep offensive team last year, with really only seven players they could rely on for consistent scoring. (By which I mean a goal a game, at least.) Four return: midfielders Ben McIntosh and Ryan Belka, swingman Frank Fusco, and attackman Nick Trizano. McIntosh scored 38 goals last year, leading the team, and is also the leading returning distributor. Drexel also returns the lion's share of their defense, but that wasn't a good defense last year and relied on two freshman goalies. Cal Winkelman took the job midseason from Will Gabrielsen and was a clear but modest improvement, registering a .514 save percentage. Drexel returns a high-quality faceoff man in Nick Saputo, but must fix their defense and fill some large holes and find some depth on offense. This could be a bellwether game - UVA should find this game medium-easy if the Hoos are back to usual strength and may struggle if not.
Rutgers - Saturday, Feb. 22 - HomeConference: Big East
Preseason rank: NR / NR
2013 computer: 44th
2013 record: 2-13
Last season: N/A
2013 O-rating: 13.85 (45th)
2013 D-rating: 15.26 (30th)
TV: none
Another unfamiliar opponent rolls into Klockner, and the first of three future and totally untraditional Big Ten teams on the schedule. This is Rutgers' last season in the Big East before next year's formation of Big Ten lacrosse.
Their 2-13 record last year was rotten as hell, made worse by the fact that their only wins were over Manhattan and Wagner, two of lacrosse's absolute worst. The record belied the stats, though; both the Laxpower computer and my tempo-free agree they weren't quite as bad as that record. Their downfall was a lack of scoring. Attackman Scott Klimchak scored 32, but was one of only six players with double-digit goals, and only one of those had more than 14.
The defense was at least respectable, though, finishing just inside the top half of the tempo-free ratings, thanks in large part to standout freshman goalie Will Alleyne. Alleyne posted a save percentage of .596, an excellent number, let alone for a freshman. He and nearly all of last season's team return, including elite FOGO Joseph Nardella, who boasted a .622 win percentage. The Scarlet Knights aren't really a Big East contender and probably no threat to make the NCAA tournament, but they should be much improved over last year and finish with a much more respectable record.
Mount St. Mary's - Tuesday, Feb. 25 - Away
Conference: NEC
Preseason rank: NR / NR
2013 computer: 45th
2013 record: 6-9
Last season: W, 18-11
2013 O-rating: 15.91 (20th)
2013 D-rating: 18.52 (53rd)
TV: none
It goes to show that records can be deceiving, when Mount St. Mary's is a notch below Rutgers in the computer rankings despite winning four more games. Conference competition has much to do with it, of course, as the NEC is one of the lowlier in the country.
Lowly is exactly where Mount St. Mary's will be this year. The team was rapaciously hit with eligibility expiration. Of the 155 goals and 90 assists the team scored last year, returning players account for 7 and 1, respectively. Absolutely mind-blowing losses. Nobody's going to recognize this team this year. And despite a pretty solid offense last year, the Mountaineers had a porous disaster zone of a defense. Having to replace everyone from the goalie to the attackers to the FOGO isn't going to help that situation - there's like, one lone defenseman starter returning. The Mount has been somewhat competitive of late, more so than usual, but this should be a blowout of VMI proportions. The only drama will be how soon we call off the dogs, and can the third and fourth string finish the quest for 20 goals?
Syracuse - Friday, Feb. 28 - HomeConference: ACC
Preseason rank: 2nd / 1st
2013 computer: 10th
2013 record: 16-4
Last season: L, 9-8
2013 O-rating: 17.47 (12th)
2013 D-rating: 13.02 (12th)
TV: ESPN3 (ESPNU delay)
These guys are showing up in more or less the same place on the schedule, only now it counts for the conference. Syracuse's addition to the ACC, as you know if you've been reading long, is highly welcome around these parts, on account of us being the only ACC team that already played them every year anyway.
The Orange are picked as one of the national favorites by the media; I might place them a touch below that level, as they lose a couple of very crucial offensive players and they get only average goaltending from Dominic Lamolinara and below-average face-off work from Chris Daddio. They'll get excellent scoring punch from a top attack line of Kevin Rice, Dylan Donahue, and Derek Maltz. These guys are small but plenty talented (well, Maltz is a big dude, but the other two are nowhere near it.) Syracuse will also get to add Nicky Galasso to the lineup this year, a familiar name from his time at North Carolina. Galasso has struggled with injuries during his career but, if healthy, could be that X-factor that gives Syracuse the nudge they need to be a real national contender.
Cornell - Saturday, Mar. 8 - Away
Conference: Ivy League
Preseason rank: 18th / 16th
2013 computer: 1st
2013 record: 14-4
Last season: L, 12-11
2013 O-rating: 20.35 (4th)
2013 D-rating: 11.94 (4th)
TV: none (WTF)
By most metrics Cornell was one of the country's best teams last year and proved it with a trip to the Final Four as an unseeded team, utterly demolishing the 6 and 3 seeds along the way before falling in a close one to eventual champion Duke. The voters have given them a very lukewarm chance to repeat that performance, no doubt having much to do with the newfound large holes in their lineup.
Elite scorers Rob Pannell and Steve Mock are gone, as well as several other scorers and longtime goalie A.J. Fiore. Some pieces remain: Connor Buczek and Matt Donovan are the top two returning scorers, with 35 and 27 goals, respectively. Doug Tesoriero has always been an extremely tough face-off man, and two of three starting defensemen return in Tom Freshour and Jordan Stevens. But the early part of the season will be spent learning where their offense is coming from, and to further the difficulty, they'll be doing it with a new coach after Ben DeLuca was fired over a hazing investigation. Cornell may spend a year re-finding their way in a tough Ivy League, with Princeton, Yale, and Penn all ranked ahead in the media poll.
Notre Dame - Sunday, Mar. 16 - Away
Conference: ACC
Preseason rank: 5th / 5th
2013 computer: 15th
2013 record: 11-5
Last season: N/A
2013 O-rating: 15.68 (24th)
2013 D-rating: 11.58 (3rd)
TV: ESPNUVA
Bringing the Domers into the conference - and expediting the process - gives the ACC a tournament autobid for the first time. It means having to play them, though. The Irish come into the conference after enough time among the nation's top teams to be taken seriously as an ACC-worthy team. They've long been known as one of the country's stiflingly elite defensive teams, with just enough offense to hold their own.
Most of their core offense returns, with starting attackmen Matt Kavanagh (32 goals in 2013) and Conor Doyle likely to be joined by top second-liner John Scioscia. Jim Marlatt is the top midfield scoring option and a solid two-way player, and two of three starting D-men return with Stephen O'Hara and hulking senior Bryan Buglione.** There's every reason to believe Notre Dame will be just as tough to score on as always and probably again good enough on offense to make a run at the Final Four.
(The Italian name here is a little bit of a jarring presence among a roster rather fittingly loaded with Irish ones. Seriously, even for a preppy sport like lacrosse, it's noticeable, with O'Hara, Kelly, Connolly, Doyle, Corrigan, etc. all up and down the list, as well as multiple instances of Pat, Liam, Conor, Ryan, and Kyle. It's like the Irish national team instead of the Fighting Irish.)
Johns Hopkins - Saturday, Mar. 22 - Home
Conference: Independent
Preseason rank: 13th / 11th
2013 computer: 3rd
2013 record: 9-5
Last season: L, 15-8
2013 O-rating: 16.79 (14th)
2013 D-rating: 11.17 (1st)
TV: ESPNUVA
Part of the reason the Big Ten is on my shit list these days is because of Hopkins. A natural fit in the ACC, they chose to go B1G for next year - the conference and the school wanted access to each other's research powerhouses, and the need to add a sixth lacrosse school was really more of an excuse than a driving force.
Anyway. Neither here nor there for this season. Like Cornell, the voters are skeptical of the Hop's ability to return to the national elite after being slammed by graduation. Offensive ringleader Wells Stanwick does return, but 17-goal scorer Ryan Brown is the only other primary returner on offense. The Blue Jays must also replace their outstanding netminder Pierce Bassett as well as most of their defense. Nobody seriously expects them to drop out of the picture entirely, as Stanwick might singlehandedly keep them in a lot of games and they should be able to find some offense where needed. But they're not quite the usual dreadnought this year.
VMI - Tuesday, Mar. 25 - Home
Conference: Atlantic Sun
Preseason rank: NR / NR
2013 computer: 62nd
2013 record: 1-12
Last season: W, 18-4
2013 O-rating: 9.19 (63rd)
2013 D-rating: 20.31 (62nd)
TV: none
Ever little more than a scrimmage that counts, the VMI game moves to the middle of the season to accommodate the schedule shuffle. VMI is never good, they're not going to be good this year, and I'd suggest that the move to the A-Sun might be good for them except that they always get rocked even by the worst teams in the country. Like, Wagner, the only team to finish below them in Laxpower's computer. Losing their top two scorers and goalie to graduation is not bloody likely to improve their situation, and they'll probably go one-win even in their new conference of brand-new programs.
Maryland - Sunday, Mar. 30 - Away
Conference: ACC
Preseason rank: 6th / 6th
2013 computer: 5th
2013 record: 10-4
Last season: L, 9-7; W, 13-6
2013 O-rating: 18.36 (9th)
2013 D-rating: 12.26 (8th)
TV: ESPNUVA
Is this the last year for Hit A Terp With A Stick Week? I'm not sure how I feel about that exactly; Virginia-Maryland really should be a thing and the douche factor is rather less in lacrosse than in sports where the coach boasts about never losing to Virginia and then hilariously reels off long losing streaks to Virginia. On the other hand, if they don't value the game, why should we?
Defense should be Maryland's strong suit this year, with standout goalie Niko Amato in his senior year and all three starting defensemen - Casey Ikeda, Goran Murray, and Michael Ehrhardt - all back as well. Lately the Terps have relied on a balanced scoring attack, but most familiar names are out the door, with only Mike Chanenchuk and Jay Carlson returning among double-digit goal scorers from last season. Poll voters placed Maryland near the bottom of the ACC, but they'll at least be tough to score on.
North Carolina - Saturday, Apr. 5 - Away
Conference: ACC
Preseason rank: 3rd / 2nd
2013 computer: 2nd
2013 record: 13-4
Last season: L, 10-7; L, 16-13
2013 O-rating: 18.36 (9th)
2013 D-rating: 12.26 (8th)
TV: ESPNUVA
The defending ACC champs should be among the favorites to repeat this year. A couple of key losses will be overshadowed by returning scoring punch in Joey Sankey and Jimmy Bitter, both 30+ goal scorers in 2013. UNC will additionally have some real midfield sniping power in returning starter Chad Tutton and perhaps a second-liner from last year, Ryan Creighton, who put almost 90% of his shots on goal in 2013.
Turnover-generating defenseman Kieran McDonald is out the door this year, but Carolina is fairly deep on defense and should be able to replace him; not only that, but they rode a freshman goalie within a hair's breadth of the Final Four last season, so they should get high-quality net play from Kieran Burke this year and far into the future, too. Since the Heels attend a class-optional school (sorry, couldn't help myself) they should be well-focused on bringing back the ACC title to Chapel Hill and will be a formidable obstacle.
Duke - Friday, Apr. 11 - Home
Conference: ACC
Preseason rank: 1st / 3rd
2013 computer: 4th
2013 record: 16-5
Last season: L, 19-16
2013 O-rating: 20.93 (2nd)
2013 D-rating: 14.19 (20th)
TV: ESPNUVA
UVA' annual bugaboo comes into this season with the added distinction of being the defending national champs. Their modus operandi last season was to overwhelm with offense, and they came within a few hundredths of a point of being the most powerful offensive team in the nation. The two top goal-scorers, Jordan Wolf with 57 and Josh Dionne with 45, both return to ensure the Blue Devils' offense remains a nasty challenge. Playmaking attackman Case Matheis also returns, as do a couple of potentially powerful midfielders, sophomores Myles Jones and Deemer Class.
Not only is Duke's offense an absolute machine, but with FOGO Brendan Fowler they can play make-it-take-it; Fowler took 526 face-offs last year and won over 64%, setting an ACC record for face-offs won and winning the NCAA championship Most Outstanding Player. Senior defensemen Henry Lobb and Chris Hipps return to anchor the defense, and both stand 6'4". One weak point may be in net, where Kyle Turri unseated (the never much good) Dan Wigrizer last year, but still failed to reach a .500 save percentage.
Still, in the disagreement between the media and the coaches over who's the preseason favorite (the coaches picked Syracuse) I'd have to side with the media. Duke is an offensive juggernaut right now, and unlike Syracuse, brings back most of their best players. Call 'em the favorite to win the ACC and a leader in the national title race.
Bellarmine - Saturday, Apr. 19 - Home
Conference: ECAC
Preseason rank: NR / NR
2013 computer: 28th
2013 record: 7-7
Last season: W, 12-7
2013 O-rating: 12.11 (57th)
2013 D-rating: 12.12 (7th)
TV: ESPNUVA
Unlike in recent years past, this game takes place before the ACC tournament. Bellarmine has done a nice job building itself up to a competitive level despite jumping to D-I only as recently as 2006. This year, though, they face an uphill climb. Of their major scorers, only midfielder Cameron Gardner returns, and Bellarmine never was a prolific scoring team to begin with, ranking near the very bottom in offensive efficiency below such luminaries as Manhattan and Vermont. They'll also have to replace all-everything goalie Dillon Ward. The ECAC is an emaciated (and soon to be extinct) conference, having lost Denver and Loyola, but the Knights even so will find it tough to gain much ground.
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It's tough to see a losing season in UVA lacrosse, but let's also keep in mind how close so many of the games really were. OT loss to Syracuse, one goal down to Cornell and OSU, two to Maryland. Flip a couple of those games and UVA is in the tournament, more than likely.
This year, the tournament is, as predicted, bigger, a change announced in the fall. The tourney goes to 18 teams, the inevitable result of the addition of auto-bid conferences, of which the ACC is now one. The four lowest-ranked autobid teams in the RPI will go to the play-ins (these almost certainly will be out of the A-East, A-Sun, NEC, and MAAC) but the upshot is that the chance for at-large bids stays just as it was last year, with eight available. (Edit: Actually, now that I think about it, one extra, since the ACC champ, which always took an at-large spot, now is accounted for in the autobids.) And also that winning the ACC tourney, which (despite the utter worthlessness of the POS ACC website, which says nothing about the subject) appears to be restricted to four teams. It'll be vital to not finish in the bottom two - and both polls have UVA doing just that. (We're 8th and 7th, but the coaches decided that the ACC completely owns lacrosse and put all six teams in the top seven.)
So we'll have to do something in the ACC besides lose every game, but certain other teams on the schedule - notably Cornell and Hopkins - also appear somewhat vulnerable. From just a schedule standpoint, UVA stands to improve, though we're not going to be seen as a top conference contender unless we pull off an upset or two.
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