The spring game has come and gone, and now spring practice as well. The football team got to break in its fancy new practice facility, which is a vast improvement over walkthroughs on the JPJA floor. You'd think we'd have some answers as to how things might look in the fall, and it so happens we just might. I've been taking notes, and as usual here's what I think:
STUFF THAT GOT CLEARED UP:
-- Quarterback, sort of. Just having something resembling a depth chart at this stage of the game is an improvement over the past. At the beginning of spring practice it was clear that Phillip Sims had somehow worked his way to the bottom of it. Mike London made noises about how nothing's decided this is just a guide of sorts blah blah blah, but it became clear pretty quickly that Sims was being sent a message. David Watford and Greyson Lambert more or less split the first-team quarterback duties, and one starts to get the sense that Watford has a slight leg up on Lambert. And that Sims hasn't done anything to move out of the doldrums; his 8-for-18 spring game performance was something less than impressive.
-- Defensive line should be pretty sweet. The age-old question of whether we should rejoice or jump off a bridge when one unit dominates the other naturally applies. However, there's good reason to believe the D-line was showing off for real. David Dean in particular came in for high praise from all corners - including, most importantly, the coaches - and there's a good chance he becomes the disruptive three-tech we thought we'd get out of Chris Brathwaite. (For whom, praise be, the door is not closed for a return. It looks like he'll be trying to follow in the footsteps of Jameel Sewell.)
-- Wide receiver should also be in good shape. Good things are being said about the second line. Dominique Terrell had a Jeff White article devoted to his good work, CavsCorner had a flowery one about E.J. Scott, and Adrian Gamble is getting noticed too.
-- We do seem to have a starting linebacker corps. And Henry Coley in particular is stepping into the leadership gap left when Steve Greer and Laroy Reynolds graduated. Coley had a little disciplinary hiccup last year, and it's nice to see that seems to be resolved. Occasionally I've seen a couple hyperactive imaginations worrying that Coley's entrenchment at middle linebacker means Kwontie Moore is a bust, to which I say piffle: Coley has two years of experience on Moore. And Demeitre Brim is moving quickly to secure the strongside spot. UVA's front seven will not be among the most-hyped in the conference when the season begins, but it could have some eyes open and looking their way by November.
STUFF THAT DIDN'T:
-- We heard precious little out of the running back realm that was especially useful. Even if we had, Taquan Mizzell is still showing up in the fall ready to scramble whatever pecking order has been established. Even so, I was hoping to hear what that pecking order might have been, and specifically, where Clifton Richardson fits. In the pre-spring depth chart he's third, and didn't appear to make a strong upward move.
-- It's all well and good to know sort of where the quarterbacks stand, but we still don't have a starter.
-- The O-line. This is the real question mark. It would be getting a lot more attention if we had a settled quarterback situation. I think the running game in particular is the most at risk, because the interior of the line is the least secure. And David Watford may have an advantage at quarterback partly because he can scramble out of the way of incoming pass rushers much better than either Sims or Lambert.
Everything will get ten times more complex when the rubber hits the road in September, of course. But if I were to break things down as simple as possible, here in April, I'd say this: The defense has the bodies and the talent to be very good, and it depends on how well they take to Jon Tenuta's schemes. And how often they blitz into a screen pass. The offense depends on the line, and secondarily on the quarterback. Quarterback is going to get the attention, and let's hope the line doesn't because poor play will be much more readily apparent than quality play. But the offense will have the weapons it needs; we'll see if the line can let them shine.
***************************************************
Just a couple things I thought shouldn't wait til Monday. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has an excellent interview with George Adeosun. Refreshingly honest and insightful. And Joe Lunardi's "I need to justify my existence for the other ten months out of the year" early bracketology has UVA a four seed. This means absolutely nothing for next year's tourney but is interesting in the sense that we know the hoops team should do very well next year, but it's a little surprising to see the media powers-that-be thinking so highly of them as well. Much more surprising than Chris Nelson's decommitment, anyway. Dude visited damn near every school in Florida in the last two months. Nelson will probably land on his feet, and I do appreciate that he decided to get it over with rather than holding a spot until the last minute before committing elsewhere. UVA will be fine, as long as they snag Andrew Brown and/or Derrick Nnadi.
Showing posts with label gamble. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gamble. Show all posts
Thursday, April 18, 2013
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
the recruit: Keeon Johnson
Name: Keeon Johnson
Position: WR
Hometown: Kannapolis, NC
School: A.L. Brown
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 200
24/7: 86, three stars; #92 WR, NC #24
ESPN: 77, three stars; #88 WR, NC #30, SE #306
Rivals: 5.6, three stars; #78 WR, NC #22
Scout: three stars; #63 WR
Other offers: Notre Dame, North Carolina, NC State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Minnesota, Duke, East Carolina
Mid-June brought an embarrassment of riches. Jack English started the wave on the 12th, and in the next less-than-two-weeks, five more players jumped onboard. English was a camp commit; the next five were players who jumped from various colors of the recruiting board rainbow to end up in orange-land. It's the sort of thing that happens when players realize the doors are closing. The first of those: Keeon Johnson.
As a wide receiver, and the most-recently taken one in a long series of them, Johnson is something of a luxury commitment. But he's also the most sought-after one of the three that we have, Andre Levrone's USC offer notwithstanding. Johnson had offers from half the ACC, which is true even including all future members. He ended up with a top three of UVA, UNC, and Notre Dame, though in the end ND fans at least were chalking it up to a decision for UVA, and they were right.
Johnson is a big target, of the sort that we have on our roster but isn't in the playing rotation. He stands 6'3" and will probably top out around 210-215 pounds, giving him very similar size to Miles Gooch. Gooch might be playing more if Jake McGee wasn't basically playing his role. In any case, there's a major lack of playable size among the receiving corps. Especially on the outside.
That's where Johnson will end up. He's got decent wheels, but not the explosive phone-booth athleticism required for the slot. This isn't to say that Johnson is in line for immediate playing time, though; with the glut of wide receivers in the system, it'd take a supreme talent to leapfrog all of it. And size alone isn't going to earn playing time, otherwise we'd be seeing a ton of Gooch. Johnson is very, very likely to redshirt.
Injury troubles only increase that likelihood. He had a nagging but not serious hip issue in the spring, and has sat out the last few weeks with turf toe. There's also a lot of refinement to be done in his game, and he needs time in the weight room. ESPN paints a picture of a guy who has a whole bunch of upside but needs major work to reach it; they note they "need to see more physical play to believe he will translate into a good blocker at the next level." They're not the only ones; a Domer blogger corroborates the assessment by saying, "I’m not sure how physical he is, or really wants to be, on the field. He’s a decent blocker but not as aggressive as a player his size could be."
Most coaches aren't as militant about wide receiver blocking as Paul Johnson, but they'll still tell you this: you don't block, you don't play. Johnson's redshirt year will be spent in the weight room working on that. After that - well, there still isn't going to be a ton of room just yet. There's little doubt that the current crop of sophomores is the main wide receiver group for the foreseeable future, and what time they don't get will probably go to guys like Adrian Gamble and Canaan Severin, who've already seen the field. Johnson has excellent tools at his disposal, though: size, good hands, solid route-running skills, and I can see a career trajectory similar to E.J. Scott's. It's very enjoyable this season watching Scott come into his own as a player and really carve out a place for himself after a few years of apprenticeship, and Keeon Johnson ought to be able to do the same.
Position: WR
Hometown: Kannapolis, NC
School: A.L. Brown
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 200
24/7: 86, three stars; #92 WR, NC #24
ESPN: 77, three stars; #88 WR, NC #30, SE #306
Rivals: 5.6, three stars; #78 WR, NC #22
Scout: three stars; #63 WR
Other offers: Notre Dame, North Carolina, NC State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Minnesota, Duke, East Carolina
Mid-June brought an embarrassment of riches. Jack English started the wave on the 12th, and in the next less-than-two-weeks, five more players jumped onboard. English was a camp commit; the next five were players who jumped from various colors of the recruiting board rainbow to end up in orange-land. It's the sort of thing that happens when players realize the doors are closing. The first of those: Keeon Johnson.
As a wide receiver, and the most-recently taken one in a long series of them, Johnson is something of a luxury commitment. But he's also the most sought-after one of the three that we have, Andre Levrone's USC offer notwithstanding. Johnson had offers from half the ACC, which is true even including all future members. He ended up with a top three of UVA, UNC, and Notre Dame, though in the end ND fans at least were chalking it up to a decision for UVA, and they were right.
Johnson is a big target, of the sort that we have on our roster but isn't in the playing rotation. He stands 6'3" and will probably top out around 210-215 pounds, giving him very similar size to Miles Gooch. Gooch might be playing more if Jake McGee wasn't basically playing his role. In any case, there's a major lack of playable size among the receiving corps. Especially on the outside.
That's where Johnson will end up. He's got decent wheels, but not the explosive phone-booth athleticism required for the slot. This isn't to say that Johnson is in line for immediate playing time, though; with the glut of wide receivers in the system, it'd take a supreme talent to leapfrog all of it. And size alone isn't going to earn playing time, otherwise we'd be seeing a ton of Gooch. Johnson is very, very likely to redshirt.
Injury troubles only increase that likelihood. He had a nagging but not serious hip issue in the spring, and has sat out the last few weeks with turf toe. There's also a lot of refinement to be done in his game, and he needs time in the weight room. ESPN paints a picture of a guy who has a whole bunch of upside but needs major work to reach it; they note they "need to see more physical play to believe he will translate into a good blocker at the next level." They're not the only ones; a Domer blogger corroborates the assessment by saying, "I’m not sure how physical he is, or really wants to be, on the field. He’s a decent blocker but not as aggressive as a player his size could be."
Most coaches aren't as militant about wide receiver blocking as Paul Johnson, but they'll still tell you this: you don't block, you don't play. Johnson's redshirt year will be spent in the weight room working on that. After that - well, there still isn't going to be a ton of room just yet. There's little doubt that the current crop of sophomores is the main wide receiver group for the foreseeable future, and what time they don't get will probably go to guys like Adrian Gamble and Canaan Severin, who've already seen the field. Johnson has excellent tools at his disposal, though: size, good hands, solid route-running skills, and I can see a career trajectory similar to E.J. Scott's. It's very enjoyable this season watching Scott come into his own as a player and really carve out a place for himself after a few years of apprenticeship, and Keeon Johnson ought to be able to do the same.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
the recruit: Adrian Gamble
Time for another regularish offseason feature, and by regularish I mean sooner or later I'm getting through every one of these, but on no set schedule. We need to get up to speed on the 2011 commitments and find out what these guys are all about. Why not sooner? It helps to be able to compare the services' rankings on these guys and see who's full of crap and who isn't. Usually it's all of them at one point or another. Anyway, we go in order of commitment and that means starting with someone whose association with UVA is now almost a year old.
Name: Adrian Gamble
Position: WR
Hometown: Charlotte, NC
School: Independence
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 175
ESPN: 77, three stars, #66 WR
Rivals: NR
Scout: two stars
This wasn't even a recruitment; at least, not a public one. Gamble came to camp in Charlottesville last year and was offered a scholarship on the spot by the Groh regime when they saw his speed and jumping ability. Figure out the wide receiver stuff later, I guess. He committed before you're even able to get your offer in written form. Gamble plays for basically the top high school football program in the state of North Carolina, which makes it difficult to crack the roster; by the time of his commitment, he'd still actually never started a game for his varsity squad.
Independence is a really high-profile school; therein lies some of the silliness. Rivals has handed out their stars by now, but Gamble remains unrated because somehow (I'm guessing this is why) they have no film of one of the starting receivers on the top program in an important southern football state. ESPN has a pretty full evaluation, but a really bogus 40 time for the guy: 4.76. That's like, linebacker territory. Al Groh didn't offer a wide receiver who'd never played varsity football because of his 4.76 40 time.
Still, I think ESPN's is the fairest evaluation. Read the report and it's easy to see that the ratings they give him are based on a future projection. Of all the players already committed to UVA for 2011, Gamble is the one most worth watching during his senior season; he'll be a feature guy surrounded by talent, so it'll be important to see some major production.
Gamble is the only wide receiver in the class so far, but it's a near-certainty that won't be the case on Signing Day. When he arrives for fall practice, there'll be three scholarship senior WRs and three more scattered around the other classes - a really thin group, barring some position switches. A big senior season could see him arrive with similar credentials and expectations as Tim Smith, who stepped right into the lineup as a freshman, and likewise there'll probably be open playing time for a 2011 freshman as well. Whether Gamble is ready for it will depend a lot on how 2010 goes.
Name: Adrian Gamble
Position: WR
Hometown: Charlotte, NC
School: Independence
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 175
ESPN: 77, three stars, #66 WR
Rivals: NR
Scout: two stars
This wasn't even a recruitment; at least, not a public one. Gamble came to camp in Charlottesville last year and was offered a scholarship on the spot by the Groh regime when they saw his speed and jumping ability. Figure out the wide receiver stuff later, I guess. He committed before you're even able to get your offer in written form. Gamble plays for basically the top high school football program in the state of North Carolina, which makes it difficult to crack the roster; by the time of his commitment, he'd still actually never started a game for his varsity squad.
Independence is a really high-profile school; therein lies some of the silliness. Rivals has handed out their stars by now, but Gamble remains unrated because somehow (I'm guessing this is why) they have no film of one of the starting receivers on the top program in an important southern football state. ESPN has a pretty full evaluation, but a really bogus 40 time for the guy: 4.76. That's like, linebacker territory. Al Groh didn't offer a wide receiver who'd never played varsity football because of his 4.76 40 time.
Still, I think ESPN's is the fairest evaluation. Read the report and it's easy to see that the ratings they give him are based on a future projection. Of all the players already committed to UVA for 2011, Gamble is the one most worth watching during his senior season; he'll be a feature guy surrounded by talent, so it'll be important to see some major production.
Gamble is the only wide receiver in the class so far, but it's a near-certainty that won't be the case on Signing Day. When he arrives for fall practice, there'll be three scholarship senior WRs and three more scattered around the other classes - a really thin group, barring some position switches. A big senior season could see him arrive with similar credentials and expectations as Tim Smith, who stepped right into the lineup as a freshman, and likewise there'll probably be open playing time for a 2011 freshman as well. Whether Gamble is ready for it will depend a lot on how 2010 goes.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
big-picture recruiting
Slow news day today. There's no midweek lacrosse game and baseball is taking on Towson, which is terrible. I thought I'd take the opportunity to take an early stab at projecting the 2011 recruiting classes in both basketball and football. Not with names, mostly, but a big-picture kind of look.
FOOTBALL
There are 14 seniors departing after the 2010 season, and the team is one shy of the limit of 85 after Riko Smalls' departure, so there are 15 for-sure openings. There is always attrition and you can always count on some redshirt juniors not being asked back for a fifth year. I think there are two or three candidates for that. So a class size of roughly 20, plus or minus a couple, is what I'd expect.
On offense, the staff is probably going to be pretty judicious with the offers they send out at the skill positions. Lazor's offense doesn't need a whole lot of receivers; in fact, with Adrian Gamble on board, the staff probably wouldn't have a lot of heartache if he was the only one. There are a couple guys on that board that you take no matter what, like maybe Quinta Funderburke, but the numbers at receiver look about right for now.
Same for running back. Clifton Richardson is basically onboard already and Nyjee Fleming appears likely enough to follow; once those two are in the bank, that'll be all we need. Quarterback too; London scooped up everyone he could find at the end of the last recruiting cycle and the only real reason to take one this year is the principle that you basically want one every year because you never know. They've offered who they like, if they find another they like they'll offer him too, but there's already a whole bunch coming in the fall and there's no need to cram a whole bunch more into that tight a space. One is all we need.
O-line, however, is a place where you always, always want to stack up as much depth as you can, and take three or four in every class. Thus the offer cannon has been readied. Between the Rivals offer list and the recruiting board here, there are probably 10 or 12 linemen already out there for the looking, and maybe one of them will end up at UVA. Offers are going to be flowing out of Charlottesville to offensive lineman all spring and summer.
So on offense: say two running backs, one or two receivers, a quarterback, and 3-4 linemen. Throw in a likely tight end as well, and of the target 20 scholarships, about 9 or 10 for the offense.
There's a slightly greater need on defense. Starting with the defensive line, where thanks to the switch from the 3-4 to 4-3, defensive tackles are suddenly in demand, big time. One is already in the house (David Dean), I really like our chances with DE Rob Burns, and we still need more. Ends and tackles alike have been offered with regularity, and my thought is that four, maybe even five linemen is the target.
So you'd think that linebacker would take a corresponding drop in demand, but I'd guess not. The staff moved Ausar Walcott and LoVante' Battle down to linebacker with the idea of increasing the speed at that position, but what that did to the numbers is give us five scholarship sophomore linebackers, and six scholarship linebackers in all the other classes combined. That means two things: one, someone like Battle or Connor McCartin is a prime candidate to put the redshirt back on this year so as to even out the numbers a bit, and two, in the long-term - like, 2012 or 2013 - we're going to be slammed with departures if we don't do something to soften the blow. That means at least two, possibly three linebackers in this class of 2011. Travis Hughes and Curtis Grant are both take-no-matter-what prospects if we can get either one, and there are a couple other LB's in blue on the recruiting board. Offers will continue to roll here.
And hey, we're suddenly thin in the secondary too, thanks to the aforementioned position switches. Plus, one of my biggest heartaches over Groh's recruiting was the near-complete lack of true cornerbacks recently. I think Demetrious Nicholson is one of the biggest must-gets in the class for that reason. Must collect defensive backs - both safeties and cornerbacks. There's already one in Matt Bailey, but five defensive backs is not too many, split about evenly between CB and safety. Four seems like a more likely number.
All told, that's 4-5 linemen, 2-3 linebackers, and 4-5 DBs. No way do we clock in at all three upper limits, but I think UVA takes 10 defensive players at a minimum and probably more like 11, maybe 12.
BASKETBALL
Basketball recruiting is grimy as hell, so I try to avoid it as a topic, but this is big-picture stuff so it's OK. There is an open scholarship in 2010 and it looks like it's going unfilled, except for maybe giving it to Will Sherrill as a senior present. Regardless, it makes four openings in 2011.
Tony Bennett's no dummy, and he knows that tying ten scholarships in two classes (it'd be six in the '10 class and four in '11) makes for some ugly numbers. You don't want your back against the wall when it's time for them to go. So Bennett's actively going for a two-year transfer. This would have a lot of benefits, but one of them is that his scholarship would free up again in 2013, one year before this six-man monstrosity of a class finishes their eligibility. Help spread the schollies around. If he can't get Justin Hamilton, and I hope I hope I hope I hope he can, he'll find someone else.
That leaves three for the '11 class, which is a perfectly normal size. And one of them is a stone-cold lock to go to a big man as long as Tony can find one that can fog a mirror and not be a defensive neanderthal. You know as well as I do that if Marshall Plumlee wants to be that guy at UVA, there's a spot for him.
Two big men would be an even better deal for the class and that's probably what Bennett will press for. Thing is, though, of the six coming in 2010, only two really qualify as big guys. Being as we lose Mike Scott and Sherrill after this season, that'll leave us with - as of now - Assane Sene, James Johnson, and Will Regan to man the interior. Hence the push for Hamilton and Plumlee. If by some miracle we get both, then what we'll need is a 6'8" power forward type. If we don't, then whoever has the best combination of size and skills, whether that be a seven-foot tree or another Scott type that can be asked to bang down low despite being a bit undersized for the job.
Lastly, a point guard. The guard offers out so far are all point guards. About the only true, honest-to-god point guard we'll have going forward is Jontel Evans. Sammy is a two guard with some one-ish abilities, and Billy Baron is a point guard on the same concept of having your best athlete play quarterback: whatever gets the ball in his hands the most. Baron might stick at the one, or shift to the two.
Bottom line here: the 2011 class has some very, very clearly defined needs. A true point guard and a true center. And a pony, while we're asking. We're awfully needy at both positions, but so is 90% of the nation. If Bennett can score one player who perfectly fits the description of a true 1 or a true 5, that'll be pretty good. To make a safe prediction: three guys in the class - two tall and one short. Plumlee tops the wish list; Angelo Chol would look pretty good as Tall Guy #2. I sort of suspect the point guard will be someone we haven't heard of yet. Someone who plays Bennett Ball, whatever that is.
FOOTBALL
There are 14 seniors departing after the 2010 season, and the team is one shy of the limit of 85 after Riko Smalls' departure, so there are 15 for-sure openings. There is always attrition and you can always count on some redshirt juniors not being asked back for a fifth year. I think there are two or three candidates for that. So a class size of roughly 20, plus or minus a couple, is what I'd expect.
On offense, the staff is probably going to be pretty judicious with the offers they send out at the skill positions. Lazor's offense doesn't need a whole lot of receivers; in fact, with Adrian Gamble on board, the staff probably wouldn't have a lot of heartache if he was the only one. There are a couple guys on that board that you take no matter what, like maybe Quinta Funderburke, but the numbers at receiver look about right for now.
Same for running back. Clifton Richardson is basically onboard already and Nyjee Fleming appears likely enough to follow; once those two are in the bank, that'll be all we need. Quarterback too; London scooped up everyone he could find at the end of the last recruiting cycle and the only real reason to take one this year is the principle that you basically want one every year because you never know. They've offered who they like, if they find another they like they'll offer him too, but there's already a whole bunch coming in the fall and there's no need to cram a whole bunch more into that tight a space. One is all we need.
O-line, however, is a place where you always, always want to stack up as much depth as you can, and take three or four in every class. Thus the offer cannon has been readied. Between the Rivals offer list and the recruiting board here, there are probably 10 or 12 linemen already out there for the looking, and maybe one of them will end up at UVA. Offers are going to be flowing out of Charlottesville to offensive lineman all spring and summer.
So on offense: say two running backs, one or two receivers, a quarterback, and 3-4 linemen. Throw in a likely tight end as well, and of the target 20 scholarships, about 9 or 10 for the offense.
There's a slightly greater need on defense. Starting with the defensive line, where thanks to the switch from the 3-4 to 4-3, defensive tackles are suddenly in demand, big time. One is already in the house (David Dean), I really like our chances with DE Rob Burns, and we still need more. Ends and tackles alike have been offered with regularity, and my thought is that four, maybe even five linemen is the target.
So you'd think that linebacker would take a corresponding drop in demand, but I'd guess not. The staff moved Ausar Walcott and LoVante' Battle down to linebacker with the idea of increasing the speed at that position, but what that did to the numbers is give us five scholarship sophomore linebackers, and six scholarship linebackers in all the other classes combined. That means two things: one, someone like Battle or Connor McCartin is a prime candidate to put the redshirt back on this year so as to even out the numbers a bit, and two, in the long-term - like, 2012 or 2013 - we're going to be slammed with departures if we don't do something to soften the blow. That means at least two, possibly three linebackers in this class of 2011. Travis Hughes and Curtis Grant are both take-no-matter-what prospects if we can get either one, and there are a couple other LB's in blue on the recruiting board. Offers will continue to roll here.
And hey, we're suddenly thin in the secondary too, thanks to the aforementioned position switches. Plus, one of my biggest heartaches over Groh's recruiting was the near-complete lack of true cornerbacks recently. I think Demetrious Nicholson is one of the biggest must-gets in the class for that reason. Must collect defensive backs - both safeties and cornerbacks. There's already one in Matt Bailey, but five defensive backs is not too many, split about evenly between CB and safety. Four seems like a more likely number.
All told, that's 4-5 linemen, 2-3 linebackers, and 4-5 DBs. No way do we clock in at all three upper limits, but I think UVA takes 10 defensive players at a minimum and probably more like 11, maybe 12.
BASKETBALL
Basketball recruiting is grimy as hell, so I try to avoid it as a topic, but this is big-picture stuff so it's OK. There is an open scholarship in 2010 and it looks like it's going unfilled, except for maybe giving it to Will Sherrill as a senior present. Regardless, it makes four openings in 2011.
Tony Bennett's no dummy, and he knows that tying ten scholarships in two classes (it'd be six in the '10 class and four in '11) makes for some ugly numbers. You don't want your back against the wall when it's time for them to go. So Bennett's actively going for a two-year transfer. This would have a lot of benefits, but one of them is that his scholarship would free up again in 2013, one year before this six-man monstrosity of a class finishes their eligibility. Help spread the schollies around. If he can't get Justin Hamilton, and I hope I hope I hope I hope he can, he'll find someone else.
That leaves three for the '11 class, which is a perfectly normal size. And one of them is a stone-cold lock to go to a big man as long as Tony can find one that can fog a mirror and not be a defensive neanderthal. You know as well as I do that if Marshall Plumlee wants to be that guy at UVA, there's a spot for him.
Two big men would be an even better deal for the class and that's probably what Bennett will press for. Thing is, though, of the six coming in 2010, only two really qualify as big guys. Being as we lose Mike Scott and Sherrill after this season, that'll leave us with - as of now - Assane Sene, James Johnson, and Will Regan to man the interior. Hence the push for Hamilton and Plumlee. If by some miracle we get both, then what we'll need is a 6'8" power forward type. If we don't, then whoever has the best combination of size and skills, whether that be a seven-foot tree or another Scott type that can be asked to bang down low despite being a bit undersized for the job.
Lastly, a point guard. The guard offers out so far are all point guards. About the only true, honest-to-god point guard we'll have going forward is Jontel Evans. Sammy is a two guard with some one-ish abilities, and Billy Baron is a point guard on the same concept of having your best athlete play quarterback: whatever gets the ball in his hands the most. Baron might stick at the one, or shift to the two.
Bottom line here: the 2011 class has some very, very clearly defined needs. A true point guard and a true center. And a pony, while we're asking. We're awfully needy at both positions, but so is 90% of the nation. If Bennett can score one player who perfectly fits the description of a true 1 or a true 5, that'll be pretty good. To make a safe prediction: three guys in the class - two tall and one short. Plumlee tops the wish list; Angelo Chol would look pretty good as Tall Guy #2. I sort of suspect the point guard will be someone we haven't heard of yet. Someone who plays Bennett Ball, whatever that is.
Friday, July 31, 2009
preseason balloting
Well, I'm not back from vacation, not exactly. But I promised I'd try and roll out a little somethin' somethin', so. As you're probably aware, the ACC had its media week this week, and I don't really find a lot of value in obsessing over every question-and-answer session, but the voting that results, you know, the projected standings and the preseason all-conference team, those things are worth a look. And the Real Serious Media guys aren't the only ones who get to have all the fun. Gobbler Country hosted a blogger vote as well, with everything the media does minus a full-out all-conference team. So: Media results are here, blogger results are here.
They're not surprising, really, as far as the UVa representation. Fifth in the division, ahead of Duke, both times. The writers tossed us a bone and named Ras-I Dowling to the preseason team. If Vic Hall were still a cornerback, we might have swept that position: UNC's Kendric Burney, the other CB, had the fewest votes of any selection. By the sounds of it, though, Hall is the likely starter at quarterback come September 4.
You're probably wondering what my own ballot looked like when Gobbler Country came calling for inputs. Even if you're not, here you go:
Atlantic:
1. FSU
2. NC State
3. Clemson
4. Wake
5. Maryland
6. BC
Coastal
1. GT
2. VT
3. UNC
4. UVA
5. Miami
6. Duke
Conference champ: Georgia Tech
Offensive POY: Jonathan Dwyer
Defensive POY: Dekoda Watson
ROY: Tajh Boyd
For whatever reason, I'm really bullish on Georgia Tech this year. I was actually about to vote for Morgan Burnett for DPOY, too, but I thought of those votes as a prediction, basically, and if there's a comparable front seven player in the running the media tends to go that route over selecting a safety. GT returns basically all their key players. VT seems to be the more or less consensus pick to win the conference no matter what subset of pundits you ask, but they have plenty of warts and question marks of their own and I think the reasoning tends to go "well I can't figure out how it could be anyone else." Fair enough, I suppose. Last year Clemson was supposed to have their year, and they didn't, and this year, what have you got? Same as last year, basically: eight or nine teams that would all be third or fourth best in any other major conference in the land. So you pick the team with a defense that probably won't fold too often and at least has a proven coach. Unless you're me, then you go with the team whose performance last year surprised everyone but you because you sort of predicted they'd do that.
Anyway, all this comes without having yet done any of my season previews, which are as much to educate me as they are you, so I reserve the right to change my mind.
A couple other tidbits:
Getting cautiously optimistic that Jeff White's move into the athletic department is going to work out nicely after all. His stories are good stuff. For example:
- Might have mentioned it already, but DE Kevin Crawford is off the team now as well as previously-noted TE Rod Wheeler. The scholarship crunch is coming to an end. My depth chart file isn't on this computer, so I'll count later, but I think that brings us to 86.
- The freshmen are way behind on their conditioning - that's to be expected, of course - but S&C coach Brandon Hourigan noted a few that are in good shape: Tim Smith, Perry Jones, Quintin Hunter, Javanti Sparrow. Those are the guys you'd want to watch out for in fall camp, especially Smith (obviously) and Sparrow, who play a position where suddenly we can't have enough depth. With the tremendous trop in DE depth we've taken this offseason, it's too bad a DE wasn't on that list somewhere.
Also, the 2011 recruiting class already has its first member: WR Adrian Gamble. No, I have no intention of starting the 2011 recruiting board. And no, I have no idea if this guy's any good. He's fast, they say. Great. Actually, what it tells me is that we're probably going to sign a full 25 in 2011, if Groh's already got that class cranking up. We didn't have our first '09 commitment til December '07 (that was Owah, who decommitted eventually) and we didn't have a '10 commit until February this year. Gamble's way ahead of the curve. Guys who do that usually fall into two categories: either they're committing to their dream school and getting it done early, or they have no idea of the attention they're going to get just for playing football, and decommit once they see some offer letters. It'll be interesting to see what kind of schools will try and pry Gamble out of our clutches.
They're not surprising, really, as far as the UVa representation. Fifth in the division, ahead of Duke, both times. The writers tossed us a bone and named Ras-I Dowling to the preseason team. If Vic Hall were still a cornerback, we might have swept that position: UNC's Kendric Burney, the other CB, had the fewest votes of any selection. By the sounds of it, though, Hall is the likely starter at quarterback come September 4.
You're probably wondering what my own ballot looked like when Gobbler Country came calling for inputs. Even if you're not, here you go:
Atlantic:
1. FSU
2. NC State
3. Clemson
4. Wake
5. Maryland
6. BC
Coastal
1. GT
2. VT
3. UNC
4. UVA
5. Miami
6. Duke
Conference champ: Georgia Tech
Offensive POY: Jonathan Dwyer
Defensive POY: Dekoda Watson
ROY: Tajh Boyd
For whatever reason, I'm really bullish on Georgia Tech this year. I was actually about to vote for Morgan Burnett for DPOY, too, but I thought of those votes as a prediction, basically, and if there's a comparable front seven player in the running the media tends to go that route over selecting a safety. GT returns basically all their key players. VT seems to be the more or less consensus pick to win the conference no matter what subset of pundits you ask, but they have plenty of warts and question marks of their own and I think the reasoning tends to go "well I can't figure out how it could be anyone else." Fair enough, I suppose. Last year Clemson was supposed to have their year, and they didn't, and this year, what have you got? Same as last year, basically: eight or nine teams that would all be third or fourth best in any other major conference in the land. So you pick the team with a defense that probably won't fold too often and at least has a proven coach. Unless you're me, then you go with the team whose performance last year surprised everyone but you because you sort of predicted they'd do that.
Anyway, all this comes without having yet done any of my season previews, which are as much to educate me as they are you, so I reserve the right to change my mind.
A couple other tidbits:
Getting cautiously optimistic that Jeff White's move into the athletic department is going to work out nicely after all. His stories are good stuff. For example:
- Might have mentioned it already, but DE Kevin Crawford is off the team now as well as previously-noted TE Rod Wheeler. The scholarship crunch is coming to an end. My depth chart file isn't on this computer, so I'll count later, but I think that brings us to 86.
- The freshmen are way behind on their conditioning - that's to be expected, of course - but S&C coach Brandon Hourigan noted a few that are in good shape: Tim Smith, Perry Jones, Quintin Hunter, Javanti Sparrow. Those are the guys you'd want to watch out for in fall camp, especially Smith (obviously) and Sparrow, who play a position where suddenly we can't have enough depth. With the tremendous trop in DE depth we've taken this offseason, it's too bad a DE wasn't on that list somewhere.
Also, the 2011 recruiting class already has its first member: WR Adrian Gamble. No, I have no intention of starting the 2011 recruiting board. And no, I have no idea if this guy's any good. He's fast, they say. Great. Actually, what it tells me is that we're probably going to sign a full 25 in 2011, if Groh's already got that class cranking up. We didn't have our first '09 commitment til December '07 (that was Owah, who decommitted eventually) and we didn't have a '10 commit until February this year. Gamble's way ahead of the curve. Guys who do that usually fall into two categories: either they're committing to their dream school and getting it done early, or they have no idea of the attention they're going to get just for playing football, and decommit once they see some offer letters. It'll be interesting to see what kind of schools will try and pry Gamble out of our clutches.
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