game preview: California

Date/Time: Sunday, June 19; 2 PM

TV: ESPN

History against the Bears: 0-0

Last matchup: Never

Last game: UVA 3, UCI 2 (6/13); Cal 6, DBU 2 (6/12)

Last weekend: UVA 2-1 over UC-Irvine; Cal 2-0 over Dallas Baptist

National rankings: this is Omaha, brutha, forget that stuff, just play ball

Blogs of the enemy: California Golden Blogs

Cal's possible lineup:

C: Chadd Krist (.304-2-43)
1B: Devon Rodriguez (.288-5-34)
2B: Tony Renda (.335-3-42)
SS: Marcus Semien (.277-5-35)
3B: Mitch Delfino (.260-4-20)
LF: Austin Booker (.319-1-24)
CF: Darrel Matthews (.275-0-18)
RF: Chad Bunting (.276-7-23)
DH: Vince Bruno (.301-0-13)

Pitching probables: LHP Danny Hultzen (12-3, 1.49, 151 Ks) vs. RHP Erik Johnson (7-4, 2.91, 100 Ks)

Cal's bullpen:

RHP Kevin Miller (6-4, 2.59, 86 Ks)
LHP Kyle Porter (5-0, 1.59, 53 Ks)
RHP Logan Scott (1-1, 2.89, 29 Ks)
RHP Matt Flemer (4-2, 2.08, 36 Ks, 5 sv)

It's Omaha Time.

Let me just get you ready right now for the storylines that'll be beaten over your head during the game on Sunday:

- Cal was ready to drop baseball last fall, but a bunch of donors stepped in and saved the program, and now they're in the College World Series.
- Virginia nearly did the same ten years ago, and now they're in the College World Series as the #1 seed.
- How crazy is it that these two teams are meeting?

Now that we've done ESPN's job for them and gotten that out of the way, let's talk Cal baseball.

The week's big question was whether Cal's lefty starter Justin Jones would be ready to go on Sunday.  Answer: he won't.  That probably means right-hander Erik Johnson, who might be a better pitcher anyway.  Johnson is a big, legit pro prospect, drafted with the 80th overall pick by the White Sox.  He can throw four pitches well, but two consistently (a low-90s fastball and a good slider) and has control issues.  Johnson's issued 54 walks this year (more than one every two innings) which is more than twice the number of walks issued by any UVA pitcher.

UVA should be throwing CyberDanny Hultzen, of course.**  The #2 pick in the draft.  Cal will get some confidence out of having already beaten the #1 pick in the draft - they beat UCLA and Gerrit Cole last month, but it should be noted, the Cal batters scored just once off of Cole and UCLA never scored at all, their hitting being thoroughly miserable.  And they were dominated by Trevor Bauer the next day.  So, have no fear.  As ever, the only thing that can really slow down Danny Hultzen is Danny Hultzen, and even then he pitched six shutout innings against Irvine with his worst stuff of the season.

The Cal lineup is nothing to write home about.  I think Irvine's was probably better.  Cal didn't attract much attention from MLB drafters, although partly that's because their best hitter, Tony Renda, is a sophomore.  Renda leads the team in batting average and total bases and is just shy of the RBI lead, too.  Not much home run power, though.  Cal can spread some of that around the lineup, but no one hitter is a huge danger.  Chad Bunting leads the team with seven, and White Sox draftee Marcus Semien (sixth round) has five, as does Devon Rodriguez.  UVA isn't a home run-hitting team, and still we have John Hicks with eight.

Unlike the other baseball previews this season, this is a one-game shot.  So it comes down to this: Will Danny Hultzen be effective?  If so, we win.  Cal neither strikes out nor walks very much.  They like to get the ball into play.  The Rob Deer Fan Club does not approve.  This is A Good Thing; UVA's fielding percentage is fifth-best in the country, and Danny has a good shot at cruising through some of these innings with fewer than 10 pitches.  One the flip side, Johnson's propensity to walk hitters (if indeed we face Erik Johnson) should be helpful; a big strength of the UVA lineup is making you waste good pitches and then driving your mistakes into the gaps.  Look for UVA to go into full-on get-on-base-however-you-can mode.  I'm hopeful of getting this CWS kicked off on the right foot.

**Some folks see the setup of the tournament, which is a repeat of the last two weeks (a double-elimination four-team "regional" and then a best-two-of-three series, and assume we should use the same pitching strategy.  That is, save Hultzen for the all-important Game 2.  This is incorrect.  The CWS offers a day of rest, or two, between games, meaning if the best happens and we win two in a row, Hultzen can pitch Sunday and then pitch again on Friday.  The rest time in Omaha allows you to shorten up your pen.  Last time, Hultzen started both Game 1 and Game 3 (albeit after throwing just three innings in Game 1) because they were far enough apart, and Sunday starter Andrew Carraway found himself in long relief in both Games 2 and 3.  It may well be possible to get through the "regional" round of the tourney alternating Hultzen and Tyler Wilson, with Will Roberts and Cody Winiarski throwing in relief.  A guy like Will Roberts coming out of the pen?  Nasty.  On the pitching staff, UVA has the best horses in Omaha; it's time to ride.  Shorten the pen, shorten the rest, and win with your best.

acc tournament semi-preview

UVA baseball didn't exactly roll into the ACC tournament on a wave of momentum.  They do happen to be the #1 seed, and if you like that, thank (ick) the Hokies for taking one of three from Georgia Tech.  UVA did itself no favors in a horrendously weak hitting exposition against the Heels last weekend, getting themselves....swept.  Never thought I'd say that as long as Danny Hultzen was still on the team.

Not the end of the world, though.  The pitching is still as good as it ever was.  Carolina didn't get much hitting in, either, a five-run inning against Cody Winiarski and Kyle Crockett last Thursday being the scariest thing that happened all weekend.  As long as you have pitching, you're in every game.  So the ACC tournament pods shook out like so:

1. Virginia
4. North Carolina
5. Miami
8. Wake Forest

2. Florida State
3. Georgia Tech
6. Clemson
7. NC State

Now for the good news: the Hoos got the tourney off on the right foot.  Simply winning would've been cool and all, but the ACC tourney has a mercy rule (there's other games going on, chop chop, get a move on) and the Hoos took advantage.  Wake Forest, whom UVA hasn't seen on the diamond for a couple years, got smacked to the tune of 13-1 in just seven innings.  And really, six for the bats, because UVA was the home team.  So the bats are back.  Tyler Wilson got the start and pitched a gem, naturally.  Struck out 12 in 6.1 innings.  Nasty as ever.

The other result of the day - you'll like this, too, promise - was Clemson blanking Georgia Tech, 9-0.  Losing the first game of the tourney means you need to win your next two games and hope the team that just beat you wins neither of theirs.  So GT has a major uphill climb to win their side of the pool.

Friday, UVA plays Miami, and throws Will Roberts against right-hander Eric Whaley.  Last time against the Canes, Roberts gave up three hits to Miami in seven innings, allowed two runs, one earned, and struck out five.  Whaley was just as strong, with four hits, two runs, none earned, and five strikeouts in six innings on Saturday.  That was right after the exam break so hopefully that's why the bats were like that.  They always are.  This is the game that makes me most nervous; Roberts is a solid pitcher but obviously he's more hittable than the guy that might just be the #1 overall pick in the draft.

The final game of pool play in the tournament is the UNC game on Saturday at 7 PM; RoboDanny pitches against UNC's Kent Emanuel.  This was the same matchup as last Friday.  Emanuel is a lefty, same as Danny, and he held UVA to one lousy run in six innings.  Again, hopefully lingering exam break cobwebs.

The championship game, which hopefully UVA will be in, will be Sunday.  If we get that far, expect Cody Winiarski to start.  Unless a situation arises in which a CG appearance is clinched before Saturday's game, which can happen if UVA beats Miami and UNC loses both their first games, then you'll probably see Cody go on Saturday and Danny held back for the championship.

I'd be remiss, too, if I failed to mention all the Hoos on the all-ACC squads: John Hicks, Steven Proscia, David Coleman, Danny Hultzen, and Branden Kline on the first team and John Barr and Tyler Wilson on the second.  CyberDanny is the pitcher of the year, obviously, and Brian O'Connor is the COY, both for the second year in a row.

Programming note: Tomorrow I preview for you the lacrosse game against Denver, and then I'm off until either Monday or Tuesday.  Happy start of summer, and try not to get schwacked by a tornado.  They seem to be all over.  No tornadoes here, but the manhole on my street outside got blown out of its socket somehow by all the water raging through the sewer system and took a huge chunk of the street with it.  Never seen that before.

series preview: Duke

Date/Time: April 15-17; 6:00 Fri, 1:00 Sun, 4:00 Sun (doubleheader)**
History against the Devils: 84-52-1

Last matchup: UVA 3-0 sweep; 4/30-5/2; Durham

Last game: UVA 8, Coastal Carolina 7 (4/13); Duke 7, Davidson 5 (4/12)

Last weekend: UVA 2-1 series win over GT (6-2, 12-9, 8-10); Duke 2-1 series loss to BC (10-6, 3-5, 4-6)

National rankings:

Baseball America: UVA #2; Duke unranked
Collegiate Baseball: UVA #1; Duke unranked
NCBWA: UVA #2; Duke unranked
Perfect Game: UVA #2; Duke unranked
Coaches: UVA #2; Duke unranked
Composite: UVA #2; Duke unranked

Opposing blogs: baseball not included

**schedule change due to weather forecast

Part of the reason I'm so bullish on the fortunes of the baseball team is because they've flashed the ability to win games like last night's against Coastal Carolina - tight, and necessitating a ninth-inning comeback - without relying on it.  I'd've actually watched, but the Red Wings were on.  Playoff hockey, see.  Not much is ever allowed to get in the way of that.  Fortunately, this weekend the Wings are playing on Saturday, which is the one day the UVA video service isn't serving baseball.  And the lacrosse game is on actual TV, which means DVR to the rescue.

I was a little enthusiastic about the prospects for Duke's season when I wrote my conference season preview, and since then the Blue Devil bats have cooled off considerably and they still haven't figured out a pitching rotation.  Duke's pitching has been getting bombed in ACC play, allowing a 6.29 ERA and opposing batters to hit .329.  Anyone's guess is as good as mine as to who our hitters will face this weekend.  Dennis O'Grady is the only Duke pitcher to start a game every weekend but he's also been getting lit up the worst.  Marcus Stroman will probably start a game, and he tends to pitch well and then watch the bullpen piss away his hard work.  Freshman Dillon Haviland seems to be the lefty in the rotation for now, but he strikes out nobody.

There are still some bats to look out for in Duke's lineup, but the pitching ranges from sometimes-OK to horrendous.  UVA's lineup doesn't look all that gargantuan statistically, but this is a patient, patient bunch and they'll mash bad pitching.  As for Duke's hitting, well....the Duke game preview guy brags that of Danny Hultzen's two career losses, Duke was responsible for one.  That's cool, sure, and it was of course back in 2009 when Danny was a freshman.  Duke can hit for average fairly well, but they're not much on slugging.  They like to make up for that by stealing bases whenever possible and they're actually rather good at it.  John Hicks is doing a great job cutting down baserunners, and his arm will get a test this weekend.  Of course, you can't steal if you don't get on base, and the K/BB ratio of Duke's batters is as bad as we've seen all year outside of the Hammerin' Hokies.

It's another sweep-or-die weekend.  The margin of error admittedly is getting a little larger, but still.  I was maybe a year off when I said Duke looked like an ACC tournament team; the future is still bright, but not the immediate future.  The pitching in Durham is too poor.  There's hitting, and we could see some high-scoring action, but most of it should be in the bottom halves of innings.  I'm hoping to watch the Hoos light up the scoreboard, and to finally learn how to pronounce Piwnica-Worms.

Rest of the ACC:

Florida State at Virginia Tech
Wake Forest at Georgia Tech; see why the Duke series is sweep-or-die?  Because these two teams will.  The Wake-GT series especially looks like a complete slaughter in the making.
Clemson at Boston College; another big must-win for Clemson.  It's not out of the question BC could steal two of three here.
North Carolina at NC State; probably another sweep in the offing, but it's a rivalry series, especially for the Pack, so who knows?
Miami at Maryland; Miami still is playing above their necks with an anemic lineup.  This looks like it should be a sweep and a slaughter but don't be surprised to see the Terps grab one.

regional of near-doom review

I tell you what - it's probably actually more nerve-racking to watch baseball games unfold on Gametracker than it is watching them on TV. Cause you never know when the next pitch is gonna happen. Might be now, or it might be three minutes from now and then it's gonna give you four quick ones in a row. And sometimes the damn thing ain't even right. This baseball version seems to be OK enough, but I still have very annoying memories of the time the Yahoo gametracker thing told me we'd hit a game-winning three-pointer against VT only to find out a few minutes later it was a game-tying bucket, and yes, we lost big in OT.

Anyway, Gametracker it was for me this weekend, for two games that were pretty much blowouts and two games that were way closer than they should have been. So here's what happened over the weekend:

Friday: UVA 15, VCU 4

Cody Winiarski gets the start for the Hoos and is quickly staked to a 7-1 lead at the expense of VCU's not-so-scary-after-all ace, Seth Cutler-Voltz. Winiarski doesn't last as long as we'd ideally like, frittering away half that lead in the fourth inning and forcing Brian O'Connor to bring in shutdown long reliever Tyler Wilson. Wilson puts an end to any more VCU thoughts of ever again arriving safely at second base, let alone scoring; he breezes through three full innings, by which time the lead is large enough that backup infielder and sometimes-pitcher Corey Hunt - he of the ten IP all year - is brought in to finish the last two, which he does as the UVA bats continue to give the scoreboard operator something to do. All nine UVA starters get at least one hit, and the 5/6/7 hitters (Parker, Hicks, and Cannon) combine for nine hits, nine runs, and eight RBI.

Saturday: UVA 13, Ole Miss 7

The Hoos jump on Ole Miss starter Aaron Barrett for 7 runs, leading Rebs fans to lament that if their second starter can't last three innings, they're really screwed going forward. (They were right: in the next game, Ole Miss starter David Goforth failed to get out of the first inning enroute to giving up eight of St. John's 20 runs.) Danny Hultzen fails to be Hultzen-esque, giving up six runs in six innings. He gets the win anyway, and Branden Kline slams the door after making an oops pitch on a full count to the first batter. For the second game in a row, every UVA starting hitter collects a hit. Most collect two. John Barr collects four in four at bats and somehow manages to never score.

Sunday: St. John's 6, UVA 5

Well damn. UVA had just racked up 28 runs in 2 games and was facing a pitcher with an ERA north of 6; this was supposed to be the crowning slaughter. Instead we get a game that wasn't really as close as it looked. Other than a five-run fourth, UVA's bats were held mostly silent, and Robert Morey immediately gave back two of them in the bottom half of the inning. Despite this, UVA clung to a 5-4 lead through three and a half more innings, until St. John's slugger extraordinaire (who is a FRESHMAN and has TWENTY-FOUR HOME RUNS) delivered his second souvenir of the day into the outfield bleachers. Or maybe beyond. That was the margin of victory, and of course it came with two outs.

Monday: UVA 5, St. John's 3

Since we couldn't seem to figure out how to hit the ball past the outfielders, O'Connor resorted to some small ball. Sacrifices, double steals, and the ever-popular UVA classic, grounding into inning-ending double plays with the bases loaded, resulted in getting runs one at a time. Better than barely getting them at all, though. Branden Kline pitched 5 1/3 excellent innings and Kevin Arico had his longest outing of the year. Why longest? Because Brian O'Connor is a smart baseball man, not a dummy. UVA was sitting on a 4-1 lead in the top of the 6th; unfortunately, the bases were loaded and St. John's had Baltzey at the bat. You do not keep your closer around for the 9th inning if the game is about ready to be lost in the 6th. O'Connor brought in Arico to face Baltz, and Baltz grounded weakly to second; too weakly, as the Hoos didn't manage to get the double play and a run scored anyway. UVA escaped the inning with a 4-3 lead, which would prove to be enough as Arico has balls the size of coconuts.

Outlook:

- Should you be worried about the bats? No, not really. Most of the time, the hits were there when we needed them. Oklahoma's starting pitching is a little bit meh for a one-seed, so we'll get our offense.

- Should you be worried about Danny Hultzen? Absolutely. An ERA that's ballooned about a full point in the last month or so is cause for concern, and his last few outings haven't been great. You live and die with your ace, so he'll be out there for Game 1 on Saturday; let's hope he's good for six or seven strong ones.

- St. John's is going to be a very, very good team next year.

- Again: Props to O'Connor for bringing in the fireman when it mattered. The game was won right there in the sixth-inning with the go-ahead run at the plate and 24 home runs under his belt. It may seem like the no-brainer, but with the bats steadily going cold, it's too risky to bring in anyone but your best; nevertheless, some managers -big-league ones, too - will insist on the notion that if you have a closer, he's a 9th-inning guy only. No, you bring him in when you need the big guns, and if that's as early as the 6th, so be it.

- More on Oklahoma on Friday. For now, give a shout to your regional champs.

weekend review

Back to....normal? Not really, and for UVA it probably won't be until we stop showing up on the cover of non-sports magazines, but sort of. But in the sense that our teams are back to winning? Definitely.

The lacrosse teams got back on the field, and if you hadn't known they were playing, it's not ESPNUVA's fault: man they must have advertised the upcoming match a few thousand times during the earlier games. It's weird to be the headline team. Those rooting for UVA, whether as fans or as the sentimental favorite, weren't disappointed. The ladies gutted out a tough one against a tough opponent in Towson, and from here out the road gets insanely more difficult, starting with a trip to Chapel Hill next weekend for a game against 3rd-seeded UNC. They already beat UNC once this season, so it's not out of the question.

Dom Starsia said in a TV interview that his guys had looked distracted and sloppy in practice during the past two weeks; by Saturday they'd apparently gotten all the bugs out of the system and looked every bit the part of the #1 seed. Mount St. Mary's happened to be the unfortunate victim in the way of the machine, but a game played that well would have beaten anyone in the country. The score was 18-4 and it wasn't that close; I watched this game with some family (and besides me, everyone in the room could probably have combined the number of lacrosse games they'd ever seen and counted them on two hands) and the verdict from the peanut gallery was that UVA was so much bigger, faster, and stronger that it was hardly even fair. Add that to the tremendous play by Adam Ghitelman and the crisp, beautiful passing in all facets of the game and the result is a rout.

MSM's coach Tom Gravante was admirably classy in his postgame statements. He'd also warned his team they were about to wake up a sleeping giant, which I think is about as accurate a statement as you'll see. Mount St. Mary's is a tiny school with corresponding resources, which is why they lost by 14 and not 4, but there's not a Duke or a Syracuse or a Maryland which could have stopped UVA on Saturday. That team was focused.

Of course, the way Syracuse played this weekend, they'd even have lost to Army, and hey, whaddaya know? Maryland's path to the final just got a lot clearer, and honestly I'm not sure I wouldn't rather play Syracuse. But there's a few things to worry about before then, like Stony Brook. At Stony Brook, which certainly seems fair. I doubt it'll matter, though.

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Before the weekend I said that if the baseball team swept North Carolina, it'd probably be a low-scoring series (it was) and that it'd need to be the result of some poor baseball at some point from UNC. You can't blame anyone for having a lousy day trying to hit Danny Hultzen, but Robert Morey - while a quality starter in his own right - is not a Hall of Famer and you should probably get more than three hits off of him in nine innings. Bravo to Morey for a rare complete game.

But it really only took one lousy, badly-timed pitch to make the sweep happen. Two pitches into his relief appearance, Colin Bates served up a walk-off gopherball to John Hicks on a silver platter and the sweep was complete. For UVA it was a weird way to win - all five runs coming on home runs. That win tied the UVA record for conference wins, hopefully to be broken next weekend, and set all kinds of other marks and firsts as well. The main thing, though, is that just one win against Miami next weekend will earn the #1 seed in the ACC tournament. The tournament outlook for UNC is suddenly a lot more dire: NC State stole one from FSU and gets Duke next weekend; UNC has to play VT and is a game behind the Pack for the 8th and final spot.

From here on out the competition is nothing but the best. Tuesday's opponent, VMI, already clocked us once. Miami is a top team in the ACC and a near-lock to host a regional. After that it's all tournament ball, where you're playing for keeps and one really bad outing by a pitcher can have a cascade effect that sends you home before you expected to go. However, Boyd's RPI needs report says UVA has already locked in a spot in the RPI top 8, and Davenport Field should hopefully see two weekends' worth of NCAA tournament ball. This year's road to Omaha won't have detours in Irvine and Oxford.

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The ACC has its new TV deal, and it's a good one that exceeds expectations. The ACC will far more than double the amount of money they're getting now. That ESPN would be willing to pay so much for ACC programming bodes well for the other major conferences; even more significantly, I think it slows down the process of Big Ten expansion, makes the ACC a less attractive target for potential pilfering conferences, and is another nail in the coffin for Big East football. More on that tomorrow; I think the TV deal merits its own post.