This was promised to you much earlier, but then I realized: if I write this before Justin Anderson makes his decision known, the whole thing will be littered with uncertainty and caveats. Now we know, so we can get the show on the road.
#0 - Devon Hall - rFr. PG
Preview quote: "UVA's backcourt is fairly young this year, so a good-sized contribution from Hall is more important than it might seem."
This didn't turn out that way, because there was such a quantum leap forward from other players. Justin Anderson, of course, and London Perrantes also became more of a scorer. Hall was decidedly the last rotation option in the backcourt, and scored more than three points just three times. He sat out 11 games entirely, and in ACC action, saw just over five minutes a game - that is, outside a particular stretch late in the season.
That would of course be the stretch that Anderson missed. Hall didn't play against Pittsburgh, but averaged 15 minutes in five others. And when London Perrantes was suspended to start the season, Hall got his only start of the year, in game one against JMU.
And that in a nutshell was Hall's role: it was other guys who ran the show, mostly, but when a spot opened up, Hall was counted on for a decent share of the minutes. Redshirting and then the understudy role probably wasn't what he envisioned to start his career. But it's hard to say he deserved scads more time; his defense was OK but not outstanding (that said, the point guard isn't asked to be the star of the pack-line) and his offense wasn't as efficient as you'd like. He showed some flashes at times. The Wake Forest game - the curbstomping, not the close one - was a particularly excellent showing. But overall he played about as well as his minutes imply. Not lousy, or he wouldn't have been the first option to replace a regular in the rotation - but not much to take note of.
Anderson's departure opens up about 28 backcourt minutes. Perrantes and Malcolm Brogdon are just about maxed out, but the competition is still going to be fierce for them. Darius Thompson joins the fray next year, and it's whispered he brings a quickness and slashing dimension to the team that was lacking this year. Marial Shayok is due for a big increase too. Hall will have to work his tail off this offseason if he wants to make a large dent next year. His role should increase, but it probably won't be til 2016-2017, after this large crop of rising seniors graduates, that he really becomes one of the front-and-center players.
#1 - Justin Anderson - Jr. SF
Preview quote: "He's got to take some part of his game - any part of his game, it really doesn't even matter - up a level or two."
I don't know. Do you think he might've accomplished that?
I guess if going from under 30% to over 45% behind the arc counts. Anderson actually cooled off as the season went on, because he started up over 60% - after Tennesee State, which he buried with 5-for-5 three-point shooting, he was over 68%, five games in.
That was enough to capture a lot of attention nationwide, but Anderson also gave a few other parts of his game a lift - he became more dependable from the free throw line, he fouled less and played better defense overall (though with fewer circus blocks, unfortunately) and he took better care of the ball. He singlehandedly answered the question of who would replace Joe Harris's scoring, and became the infectiously enthusiastic face of the whole team. And then, because We Can't Have Nice Things, he broke his damn hand.
That was really what drove home the point about what he meant to this team. UVA only lost one game without him, but they weren't easy wins, and three out of his four games after his return were a mess. He scored zero points in the whole ACC tournament and only defensively-challenged Belmont allowed him to look like his former self. Anderson's play suffered, and along with it basically the whole offense.
A terrific shame. Anderson was an exciting player his first two years, but he was a ridiculously athletic curiosity for the most part. An X-factor, but the game was dominated by others. This year he took over and became the guy Maryland fans are still pissed off about missing out on. This is what's most disappointing about Anderson leaving. The team, actually, will be just fine. Tony Bennett is working on a nice track record of seeing his players take huge strides in the offseason, and no doubt someone will do the same this year. Or a couple someones. In fact, the team might be best off in the long run for this - if Anderson returned, the backcourt would've been incredibly crowded. Now, some younger guys will get extensive playing time and the baton will be more easily passed off in later years. But a full year of a guy like Justin Anderson in a starring role would've been some of the best entertainment in all of college hoops.
#2 - B.J. Stith - Fr. SG
Preview quote: "Stith has a good head on his shoulders and a dad who won't let him screw himself up, so I'll put in a SWAG here and say Stith redshirts."
Well, that was over quick. Stith didn't redshirt, but he might as well have for all the playing time he got - almost exclusively with the walk-ons at the end of blowouts - and amid a smattering of talk that cracking the rotation might not ever be in the cards, Stith decided to rejoin his father and brother at ODU next year. We won't get to see the second chapter of a Stith lighting it up in a Virginia uniform after all.
#4 - Marial Shayok - Fr. SF
Preview quote: "Shayok's calling card when he came in was his versatility."
Honest, I totally forgot that I'd written that as I watched Shayok this season and thought, "man, this guy can score a lot of different ways." Versatile was exactly the word for what he did with the ball. He showed he could get to the rim; he showed he could shoot the three; he showed he could create a few chances for his teammates. He played a reasonably steady 15 minutes a game - right about average for the fourth guy in the backcourt rotation - and had a higher assist rate than everyone but Perrantes and Brogdon, the team's highest steal rate, and the backcourt's best block rate. A better block rate than Anderson, in fact, and Anthony Gill as well.
You can't ask for a lot more out of a bench guy, and you can't ask for preseason impressions to turn out much more accurate than that. Shayok didn't do anything dominatingly well, and he was plagued with occasional freshman inconsistency, but he did a hell of a lot of different things at an ACC level. Out of a fairly large group of freshmen, Shayok was easily the best.
A guy who can score a lot of different ways is a good bet to find chances to do it more often. Shayok doesn't have the kind of wild athleticism you see in early draft entrants, and that means Tony Bennett might have hit the sweet spot in recruiting here. Shayok appears to have a well-developed court sense and has a great chance to be a four-year star for the Hoos. And for that matter, a three-year starter.
#5 - Darion Atkins - Sr. PF
Preview quote: "Atkins probably won't start many games, if at all, and isn't a huge scoring threat. He probably trusts his hook shot a little too much."
Nice preview. Atkins started 27 games, in fact, including all of them but one after New Year's, and in that one he played 31 minutes. Oh, and he was one of the most indispensible players on the team. ACC Defensive POY. That hook shot I thought he trusted too much became a deadly weapon. Simply put, he was one of the ACC's best interior forces anywhere.
Atkins got back all the bounce and athleticism he'd lost when the shin splints struck him two years ago. And he played with a chip on his shoulder, as if making up for lost time and getting revenge on the fates that robbed him of a year and a half of usefulness. It was so much fun to see him get that redemption and his year in the spotlight that nobody minded a bit when he got a technical for hanging on the rim against VT. Sometimes you just let a guy have a moment. This was the player that UVA and Notre Dame fought over in the recruiting wars.
Stories like his are what make college hoops fun. Now there's a small conundrum. Before the season the whole fanbase figured that "only" losing Atkins would mean basically the exact same team would come back next year, only a year older and stronger and wiser. Now he's gotta be replaced. It won't be easy; whereas Atkins was plausibly seen as very similar to Akil Mitchell, there isn't anyone left in that mold, nor much experience among the candidates.
#10 - Mike Tobey - Jr. C
Preview quote: "Keep him on the development curve at the same time and he's got a chance to open a lot of eyes in the ACC this year."
There hasn't been a more polarizing UVA basketball player since Sammy Zeglinski. With Tobey, whether you like his game or not, there's evidence to support your position. Tobey was only a secondary scorer at best, and his minutes actually dropped from last year. He's really not useful against teams without big traditional centers, because he's fairly easily beaten on the block by smaller, quicker forwards. His defense is a little slow and he doesn't appear to be a natural in the pack-line.
On the other hand, he's extremely useful against teams that do have traditional centers, because he's almost always much more skilled than they are, able to guard them with relative ease thanks to the security blanket of the pack-line and his better athleticism, and he has little trouble scoring against slow-footed galoots. This season was easily his best offensively. He was much more efficient than last year; he shot free throws as well as most guards, he was a terrific rebounder especially on offense, he made good outlet passes, and he turned the ball over very little.
I think a lot of criticism directed at Tobey - much of it to do with a perceived lack of effort - is unwarranted. It's not any more valid than the idea that Atkins was disgruntled and unhappy because his face was kinda hangdog all the time. Amateur psychology. That and the expectations heaped on him when he was recruited. If there were no such thing as recruiting analysts, Tobey would catch a lot less flak. That said, he can be maddening at times. He needs to find ways to get himself on the court more. If he does, he's still got it in him to be an all-ACC player.
Showing posts with label stith. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stith. Show all posts
Monday, April 20, 2015
Monday, November 17, 2014
first impressions
If the Hoos are gonna do anything this year that even remotely resembles last year, it'll take important contributions from freshmen. We knew that going in; the exciting thing was finding out who could do what, and who would step up the highest. Tony Bennett likes to keep things under heavy wraps during the fall, so this weekend was our first really good look at how he planned on using these guys and what they could do.
Obvious and screaming caveat about quality of competition remains. Neither JMU nor NSU provide anything resembling a real test. We might be able to make better predictions a week from now, with the GW game in the books. But this post is going to be largely about comparing the freshmen to each other, so this is still plenty useful.
The rotation is the most important thing, and it has very little to do with the competition. Tony gave us a lot of info after the Norfolk State game. Still figuring things out, yes, of course - Tony has always used the early part of the season to figure things out, and doing so is a feature, not a bug. Basketball teams are chemistry experiments, especially with so many new ingredients. He always manages to have things right by the time an ACC opponent rolls into town.
Second, he mentioned a 10-man rotation, at least for now. Jack Salt didn't play a minute, even when the bench was emptied, so it don't take a rocket surgeon to riddle that one out. B.J. Stith got a few minutes, but some of them came with the walk-ons, and the rest of them in that mid-first-half area where the back-end guys go in sometimes. With a 10-man rotation, and 10 scholarship players getting double-digit minutes and the other one getting a handful, it shouldn't be hard to figure that out either. Stith is the odd man out of the rotation, at least for now. He'll almost certainly pick up a bagload of DNP-CDs this year.
(Tangent: I don't mind this, by the way. Most everyone's instinct is to say that if he's not going to give us meaningful minutes, he should redshirt, end of discussion. Yes, it makes sense to want that fifth year out of him, but keep in mind this, too: basketball players transfer at the drop of a hat, and always think they should be playing. Most programs try to keep everyone happy by juggling 13 players, and sometimes that works and usually it doesn't, and players leave. Coaches tend to over-promise when they're recruiting. Tony's never anything but up front with these guys, and doesn't redshirt anyone who's not OK with it. If someone tells him they don't want to redshirt and they'll take their chances with whatever minutes Tony dishes out, and Tony redshirts them anyway, well.... five years is better than four, but four is better than two.)
So that leaves three newcomers to the rotation: Hall, Shayok, and Wilkins. Hall appears to be following the lead of London Perrantes a bit, by which I mean he looks for his own shot about as often and at similar times. But I think there are signs he'll be considered the superior defender by season's end. One of those signs is probably the "5" in the JMU game steals column. He's more aggressive than Perrantes, who's one of the team's more conservative defenders. Getting five steals while only fouling once, that's outstanding.
Shayok, now. Main thing I thought he showed off was an ability to score a lot of different ways. He wasn't afraid to launch a three, and he looked comfortable going to the rim too. "Versatile" was the word on him, and he looked it. Everyone from Tony on down warned against falling in love with the three-ball after the NSU game, but the fact is, it's nice to know they might actually be able to shoot it.
Shayok looked pretty good on defense, too, but so far my favorite of the three main newcomers is Wilkins. And defense, of course, is the reason. Wilkins shot down two NSU attempts in one possession, but that wasn't my favorite play - an NSU player attempting to drive met with a Wilkins shot-block without Wilkins even having to move his feet. Yes, it was my imagination, but I swear I saw Wilkins give the guy a "really?" look before tossing the shot back where it came from. This is to say nothing of his JMU stat line, one which made the Swiss Army knife characterization look awfully prescient. Wilkins could be a big piece of the replacement puzzle for Akil Mitchell.
The missing link in all this analysis is that nothing the Dukes or Spartans did was able to expose any real weaknesses on these guys. It's easy and unfair to get swept away in expectations. But the truth is, Tony was able to use his freshmen and not see a scary-looking drop in quality of play. That's reassuring. Shayok and Wilkins looked the best of the bunch, but they all looked like they belonged.
Obvious and screaming caveat about quality of competition remains. Neither JMU nor NSU provide anything resembling a real test. We might be able to make better predictions a week from now, with the GW game in the books. But this post is going to be largely about comparing the freshmen to each other, so this is still plenty useful.
The rotation is the most important thing, and it has very little to do with the competition. Tony gave us a lot of info after the Norfolk State game. Still figuring things out, yes, of course - Tony has always used the early part of the season to figure things out, and doing so is a feature, not a bug. Basketball teams are chemistry experiments, especially with so many new ingredients. He always manages to have things right by the time an ACC opponent rolls into town.
Second, he mentioned a 10-man rotation, at least for now. Jack Salt didn't play a minute, even when the bench was emptied, so it don't take a rocket surgeon to riddle that one out. B.J. Stith got a few minutes, but some of them came with the walk-ons, and the rest of them in that mid-first-half area where the back-end guys go in sometimes. With a 10-man rotation, and 10 scholarship players getting double-digit minutes and the other one getting a handful, it shouldn't be hard to figure that out either. Stith is the odd man out of the rotation, at least for now. He'll almost certainly pick up a bagload of DNP-CDs this year.
(Tangent: I don't mind this, by the way. Most everyone's instinct is to say that if he's not going to give us meaningful minutes, he should redshirt, end of discussion. Yes, it makes sense to want that fifth year out of him, but keep in mind this, too: basketball players transfer at the drop of a hat, and always think they should be playing. Most programs try to keep everyone happy by juggling 13 players, and sometimes that works and usually it doesn't, and players leave. Coaches tend to over-promise when they're recruiting. Tony's never anything but up front with these guys, and doesn't redshirt anyone who's not OK with it. If someone tells him they don't want to redshirt and they'll take their chances with whatever minutes Tony dishes out, and Tony redshirts them anyway, well.... five years is better than four, but four is better than two.)
So that leaves three newcomers to the rotation: Hall, Shayok, and Wilkins. Hall appears to be following the lead of London Perrantes a bit, by which I mean he looks for his own shot about as often and at similar times. But I think there are signs he'll be considered the superior defender by season's end. One of those signs is probably the "5" in the JMU game steals column. He's more aggressive than Perrantes, who's one of the team's more conservative defenders. Getting five steals while only fouling once, that's outstanding.
Shayok, now. Main thing I thought he showed off was an ability to score a lot of different ways. He wasn't afraid to launch a three, and he looked comfortable going to the rim too. "Versatile" was the word on him, and he looked it. Everyone from Tony on down warned against falling in love with the three-ball after the NSU game, but the fact is, it's nice to know they might actually be able to shoot it.
Shayok looked pretty good on defense, too, but so far my favorite of the three main newcomers is Wilkins. And defense, of course, is the reason. Wilkins shot down two NSU attempts in one possession, but that wasn't my favorite play - an NSU player attempting to drive met with a Wilkins shot-block without Wilkins even having to move his feet. Yes, it was my imagination, but I swear I saw Wilkins give the guy a "really?" look before tossing the shot back where it came from. This is to say nothing of his JMU stat line, one which made the Swiss Army knife characterization look awfully prescient. Wilkins could be a big piece of the replacement puzzle for Akil Mitchell.
The missing link in all this analysis is that nothing the Dukes or Spartans did was able to expose any real weaknesses on these guys. It's easy and unfair to get swept away in expectations. But the truth is, Tony was able to use his freshmen and not see a scary-looking drop in quality of play. That's reassuring. Shayok and Wilkins looked the best of the bunch, but they all looked like they belonged.
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
2014 hoops preview: players, part 1
yeeessssssssss it's that time
you know my name now.
What a difference a really ridiculously good year makes. Last season we kicked this off by taking note of some of the various preseason projections for UVA, and I added about ten exclamation points to the one that had UVA 11th in the season. Now you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone putting the Hoos that low. About the only thing that's the same is that UVA is still predicted fourth in the conference by the preseason media poll, but the rest of the contenders had to rise a lot higher in the rankings for that not to look silly.
There's not a lot of roster turnover from the team that won the completely undisputed and unshared ACC championship. Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell have graduated, sent on their way in perfect style and now trying to carve out a niche in the NBA. Mike Scott's done it, so you'd be a fool to bet against them. Teven Jones transferred out; initially he was headed to Appalachian State, but would've lost a year of eligibility, so he resurfaced at Tarleton State, out in East Bum, Texas. He'll be thirty miles past the middle of nowhere, but Tarleton State has a really highly-ranked D-II program, and probably will be even better for his arrival.
Replacing them on the roster are four freshmen and a transfer, finally filling out the quota of 13 scholarship players. Darius Thompson, who played a year for Cuonzo Martin at Tennessee and then transferred up our way when Martin left, is taking his mandatory redshirt year, which leaves 12 eligible guys. This means some hard decisions; Tony prefers a rotation of about nine or ten, and that tenth guy tends to get squeezed out as the season goes on. He also prefers to put off redshirt decisions (or at least, put off telling us about them) to the last minute, so this preview is going to speak of all four freshman as if they'll play, but with the understanding that maybe two of them actually will.
And as always, you're going to have to wait til later to get the whole thing. First half today.
#0 - Devon Hall - rFr. PG
One newcomer we know for sure about though: Devon Hall will be on the court. This is the kinda cool thing about establishing a pattern of redshirting incoming freshmen, which by the way is awfully rare in basketball. You get your new wave of freshmen, but you also get an infusion of brand-new talent who knows the ropes a little bit.
This team is quickly becoming the property of London Perrantes, who came in as the surprise second point guard after Hall looked like the handpicked one. Perrantes made himself damn well indispensible last year while Hall sat. But there's an obvious role for Hall now, and interestingly it's mainly to do with losing Harris.
Ever since Malcolm Brogdon set foot on the court, the deal with him has been, "ok, he can run the point, but how can we find a way for him not to?" With Harris gone, Brogdon has to shoulder the lead scorer's role. Simply put, Brogdon is going to be the go-to guy, a role which he started to ease into last year (how about that shot at Pitt?) and which he'll be better at if he's not concerned with playing backup point. While Bennett doesn't make it a point to have a dedicated, rigidly-defined point guard, the ideal situation is if Hall's and Perrantes's minutes percentages add up to just about 100.
The scouting report on Hall was that he was very much a pass-first point guard. I wonder how well that's stood up over time. Hall will basically be backing up Perrantes, which means he'll see a lot of time playing with and against second units. It's one thing to look to set up your teammates if you're looking inside to Anthony Gill or outside to Brogdon. It might be different if you have less of a scoring contingent on the floor and are facing off against other second-stringers. I don't know that I have a lot of concrete reason to say this, but I think Hall will be encouraged to find his shot. He's going to have a big size advantage against most other 1's that defend him, and he won't give up much in the quickness department. It's always interesting when you put the offense in the hands of someone new, but if Hall can be a scoring punch off the bench, UVA's depth would be really scary. Doesn't have to be much. A steady four, five points a game would do it. UVA's backcourt is fairly young this year, so a good-sized contribution from Hall is more important than it might seem.
#1 - Justin Anderson - Jr. SF
Winning makes UVA basketball fun to watch. Justin Anderson makes it entertaining. Anderson is always described as wildly athletic, and he can definitely jump.... but, truth is, he's not jumping out of the gym nor flying out of his shoes. Anderson is blessed with incredible body control that lets him pull off ridiculous moves that you swear he ripped off of Cirque du Soleil, resulting in highlight-reel blocks, saves, steals, passes, and dunks. And he plays with an infectious enthusiasm and a Cheshire cat grin.
Anderson basically does everything pretty well. Even his shot-blocking, while flashy, isn't all the way up the stat charts. He's simply not always in position to do it, because he's not usually a post defender, and most of his blocks come on breakaways or when he or a teammate is otherwise beat. Besides that body control, Anderson has an impeccable sense of timing, and a wily ability to bait the opponent into thinking he has a free 'n' clear layup.
He also is a very good passer, a more than adequate and very versatile halfcourt defender, and his two-point shooting percentage was third-best on the team last year (among players who shot enough for a reasonable sample size), largely because he dunks the ball a hell of a lot. Tremendously efficient shot, the slam dunk. He rebounds some, shoots a respectable free throw, and generally does a little bit of everything.
Thing is though - now that he's an upperclassman, more is going to be expected than simply doing most things pretty well. He still could stand to improve his three-point shot, which was at best streaky last year and not too reliable. He's got to take some part of his game - any part of his game, it really doesn't even matter - up a level or two. Lockdown defender, star rebounder, improved scoring touch - whatever it is, it'll help. Basketball teams are fluid things that need a little time to find an identity, and this one can morph its roles to match what Anderson does, as long as he brings something new. Nobody's quite sure if Anderson is ready for a full-time starting role - he looked awfully good coming off the bench, to the extent of being named the media's choice for ACC 6th-man of the year. But if he doesn't move into the starting lineup, we're even less sure who would.
#2 - B.J. Stith - Fr. SG
Over three years ago - that's how long ago B.J. Stith committed to UVA. Remember the Peach Bowl, how long ago that seems? Now go back almost four more months. The hoops team featured Sammy Zeglinski and Assane Sene. And Malcolm Brogdon as a freshman, and jeez he's only a junior now with all his best basketball in front of him and now you know why his teammates like to call him an old-ass man.
So it'd be the apex of cruel irony to make UVA fans wait another year to see a Stith suit up again for the Hoos. I think Stith is among the more likely freshmen to have a role, though. When Brogdon comes off the court, there isn't really a backup two guard. Used to be you could have Harris do that; he could flex easily between the two and three. I don't think you have that kind of player this year, at least, not one that's easily evident; Anderson's not enough of a shooter. Playing Stith would give us a great shot at having a four-man rotation in the backcourt that can score with whatever combo is on the floor.
That's the rationale for playing him. For redshirting him? Defense. Nobody ever really knows until the tipoff exactly what Tony is thinking in terms of defense, but Stith's main competition for playing time is Marial Shayok, who by most accounts is the superior defender, and good enough to earn his way onto the court. If I were handicapping things, I'd tip things ever so slightly in favor of Shayok, which pushes Stith into a redshirt role if he's OK with it. Tony won't redshirt someone who doesn't want to, but won't go out of his way to put him into games, either. Stith has a good head on his shoulders and a dad who won't let him screw himself up, so I'll put in a SWAG here and say Stith redshirts.
#4 - Marial Shayok - Fr. SG
Marquette's loss was the state of Virginia's gain; when Buzz Williams bolted for VT, he took a fair amount of his recruiting class with him, but one of his charges found his way to Charlottesville instead. Shayok definitely adds to the diversity of the team - he's a Sudanese-Canadian, and comes from a basketball family.
He's listed at almost the exact same size as Stith - 6'5", 207 vs. 205 - but there's a clear positional difference. Stith is a shooting guard, full stop. Shayok has more versatility, having played everything from the 1 through the 5 in high school. Despite the size similarities, Shayok is basically more of a three who might grow into a four... but could play some two right now. He has a chance to be that guy who can flex between positions. That, along with his reported quick study on defense, has him in line to get on the court early.
That's a lot to ask for a freshman, true. But when's the last time you saw Tony put an unprepared player on the court? (Hint: No.) Shayok's calling card when he came in was his versatility; I think if he's in the rotation more than a few minutes here and there, that in itself is proof of his ability to guard multiple positions.
#5 - Darion Atkins - Sr. PF
Only one senior on the team this year, and here he is. I don't want to say Atkins had a disappointing season last year, but he did end up in the back end of the rotation. (I do not think it's an attitude problem, as some do suggest; Atkins projects that image with his facial expressions, but - that's just sort of how he looks, all the time.) His peak so far has been the beginning of his sophomore year when he and Mitchell were forming an eye-opening combo of tremendously athletic power forwards that gave teams absolute fits trying to score on them.
Unfortunately, Atkins developed shin splints, which, even when he did play, robbed him of that bounciness, and he looked crushingly average the rest of the way. Last year, he got overtaken, mostly by Anthony Gill, who proved the far superior scorer and a good enough defender.
Now, though, there's no Mitchell. He'll be the hardest player to replace too, no offense to Harris. Mitchell quarterbacked the defense and was never out of position. Atkins probably won't start many games, if at all, and isn't a huge scoring threat. He probably trusts his hook shot a little too much. All the same, helping to replace Mitchell is exactly what he needs to do. Atkins has it in him to be a very good shotblocker, and his offensive rebounding didn't get enough credit last year. If he can carry that over to consistent double-digit minutes every game, he'll be giving us exactly what we need out of him.
#10 - Mike Tobey - Jr. C
Speaking of guys who need to step up. This is a big, big year for Tobey. It would be really unfair to say he's underperformed, but he's also been quite a tease. His game isn't inconsistent. It's just that when he's scoring, he looks smooth and skilled for a big man; when he's not, the same game looks soft and unassertive. It's easy to forget - he's young for his age, to coin a Yogi Berra-ism, and his development is pretty much exactly how it should be. In many respects he's been the victim of his own expectations.
Doesn't let him off the hook to keep on developing, though. 10 points a game is not too much to ask, and it'd be great news for our offense: a consistent scoring source that wasn't there last year. Malcolm Brogdon told ESPN's Andy Katz that the team is going to look inside more, and that's basically code for getting more out of Tobey than 6.4 ppg.
This is doable. Not only does Tobey have very good range for a big, and isn't a hopeless mess at the line like many bigs, his offensive rebounding last year was just shy of elite. He takes care of the ball well, and is also the team's best shot-blocker. He was a starter last year, but was only seventh in minutes; I don't at all expect that to be the case this year. Just getting him on the court for eight more minutes a game will boost his numbers and his impact. Keep him on the development curve at the same time and he's got a chance to open a lot of eyes in the ACC this year.
**********************************************
Game preview as normal tomorrow, and then special weekend-ish continuations of the hoops season preview. Touch not the dial.
you know my name now.
What a difference a really ridiculously good year makes. Last season we kicked this off by taking note of some of the various preseason projections for UVA, and I added about ten exclamation points to the one that had UVA 11th in the season. Now you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone putting the Hoos that low. About the only thing that's the same is that UVA is still predicted fourth in the conference by the preseason media poll, but the rest of the contenders had to rise a lot higher in the rankings for that not to look silly.
There's not a lot of roster turnover from the team that won the completely undisputed and unshared ACC championship. Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell have graduated, sent on their way in perfect style and now trying to carve out a niche in the NBA. Mike Scott's done it, so you'd be a fool to bet against them. Teven Jones transferred out; initially he was headed to Appalachian State, but would've lost a year of eligibility, so he resurfaced at Tarleton State, out in East Bum, Texas. He'll be thirty miles past the middle of nowhere, but Tarleton State has a really highly-ranked D-II program, and probably will be even better for his arrival.
Replacing them on the roster are four freshmen and a transfer, finally filling out the quota of 13 scholarship players. Darius Thompson, who played a year for Cuonzo Martin at Tennessee and then transferred up our way when Martin left, is taking his mandatory redshirt year, which leaves 12 eligible guys. This means some hard decisions; Tony prefers a rotation of about nine or ten, and that tenth guy tends to get squeezed out as the season goes on. He also prefers to put off redshirt decisions (or at least, put off telling us about them) to the last minute, so this preview is going to speak of all four freshman as if they'll play, but with the understanding that maybe two of them actually will.
And as always, you're going to have to wait til later to get the whole thing. First half today.
#0 - Devon Hall - rFr. PG
One newcomer we know for sure about though: Devon Hall will be on the court. This is the kinda cool thing about establishing a pattern of redshirting incoming freshmen, which by the way is awfully rare in basketball. You get your new wave of freshmen, but you also get an infusion of brand-new talent who knows the ropes a little bit.
This team is quickly becoming the property of London Perrantes, who came in as the surprise second point guard after Hall looked like the handpicked one. Perrantes made himself damn well indispensible last year while Hall sat. But there's an obvious role for Hall now, and interestingly it's mainly to do with losing Harris.
Ever since Malcolm Brogdon set foot on the court, the deal with him has been, "ok, he can run the point, but how can we find a way for him not to?" With Harris gone, Brogdon has to shoulder the lead scorer's role. Simply put, Brogdon is going to be the go-to guy, a role which he started to ease into last year (how about that shot at Pitt?) and which he'll be better at if he's not concerned with playing backup point. While Bennett doesn't make it a point to have a dedicated, rigidly-defined point guard, the ideal situation is if Hall's and Perrantes's minutes percentages add up to just about 100.
The scouting report on Hall was that he was very much a pass-first point guard. I wonder how well that's stood up over time. Hall will basically be backing up Perrantes, which means he'll see a lot of time playing with and against second units. It's one thing to look to set up your teammates if you're looking inside to Anthony Gill or outside to Brogdon. It might be different if you have less of a scoring contingent on the floor and are facing off against other second-stringers. I don't know that I have a lot of concrete reason to say this, but I think Hall will be encouraged to find his shot. He's going to have a big size advantage against most other 1's that defend him, and he won't give up much in the quickness department. It's always interesting when you put the offense in the hands of someone new, but if Hall can be a scoring punch off the bench, UVA's depth would be really scary. Doesn't have to be much. A steady four, five points a game would do it. UVA's backcourt is fairly young this year, so a good-sized contribution from Hall is more important than it might seem.
#1 - Justin Anderson - Jr. SF
Winning makes UVA basketball fun to watch. Justin Anderson makes it entertaining. Anderson is always described as wildly athletic, and he can definitely jump.... but, truth is, he's not jumping out of the gym nor flying out of his shoes. Anderson is blessed with incredible body control that lets him pull off ridiculous moves that you swear he ripped off of Cirque du Soleil, resulting in highlight-reel blocks, saves, steals, passes, and dunks. And he plays with an infectious enthusiasm and a Cheshire cat grin.
Anderson basically does everything pretty well. Even his shot-blocking, while flashy, isn't all the way up the stat charts. He's simply not always in position to do it, because he's not usually a post defender, and most of his blocks come on breakaways or when he or a teammate is otherwise beat. Besides that body control, Anderson has an impeccable sense of timing, and a wily ability to bait the opponent into thinking he has a free 'n' clear layup.
He also is a very good passer, a more than adequate and very versatile halfcourt defender, and his two-point shooting percentage was third-best on the team last year (among players who shot enough for a reasonable sample size), largely because he dunks the ball a hell of a lot. Tremendously efficient shot, the slam dunk. He rebounds some, shoots a respectable free throw, and generally does a little bit of everything.
Thing is though - now that he's an upperclassman, more is going to be expected than simply doing most things pretty well. He still could stand to improve his three-point shot, which was at best streaky last year and not too reliable. He's got to take some part of his game - any part of his game, it really doesn't even matter - up a level or two. Lockdown defender, star rebounder, improved scoring touch - whatever it is, it'll help. Basketball teams are fluid things that need a little time to find an identity, and this one can morph its roles to match what Anderson does, as long as he brings something new. Nobody's quite sure if Anderson is ready for a full-time starting role - he looked awfully good coming off the bench, to the extent of being named the media's choice for ACC 6th-man of the year. But if he doesn't move into the starting lineup, we're even less sure who would.
#2 - B.J. Stith - Fr. SG
Over three years ago - that's how long ago B.J. Stith committed to UVA. Remember the Peach Bowl, how long ago that seems? Now go back almost four more months. The hoops team featured Sammy Zeglinski and Assane Sene. And Malcolm Brogdon as a freshman, and jeez he's only a junior now with all his best basketball in front of him and now you know why his teammates like to call him an old-ass man.
So it'd be the apex of cruel irony to make UVA fans wait another year to see a Stith suit up again for the Hoos. I think Stith is among the more likely freshmen to have a role, though. When Brogdon comes off the court, there isn't really a backup two guard. Used to be you could have Harris do that; he could flex easily between the two and three. I don't think you have that kind of player this year, at least, not one that's easily evident; Anderson's not enough of a shooter. Playing Stith would give us a great shot at having a four-man rotation in the backcourt that can score with whatever combo is on the floor.
That's the rationale for playing him. For redshirting him? Defense. Nobody ever really knows until the tipoff exactly what Tony is thinking in terms of defense, but Stith's main competition for playing time is Marial Shayok, who by most accounts is the superior defender, and good enough to earn his way onto the court. If I were handicapping things, I'd tip things ever so slightly in favor of Shayok, which pushes Stith into a redshirt role if he's OK with it. Tony won't redshirt someone who doesn't want to, but won't go out of his way to put him into games, either. Stith has a good head on his shoulders and a dad who won't let him screw himself up, so I'll put in a SWAG here and say Stith redshirts.
#4 - Marial Shayok - Fr. SG
Marquette's loss was the state of Virginia's gain; when Buzz Williams bolted for VT, he took a fair amount of his recruiting class with him, but one of his charges found his way to Charlottesville instead. Shayok definitely adds to the diversity of the team - he's a Sudanese-Canadian, and comes from a basketball family.
He's listed at almost the exact same size as Stith - 6'5", 207 vs. 205 - but there's a clear positional difference. Stith is a shooting guard, full stop. Shayok has more versatility, having played everything from the 1 through the 5 in high school. Despite the size similarities, Shayok is basically more of a three who might grow into a four... but could play some two right now. He has a chance to be that guy who can flex between positions. That, along with his reported quick study on defense, has him in line to get on the court early.
That's a lot to ask for a freshman, true. But when's the last time you saw Tony put an unprepared player on the court? (Hint: No.) Shayok's calling card when he came in was his versatility; I think if he's in the rotation more than a few minutes here and there, that in itself is proof of his ability to guard multiple positions.
#5 - Darion Atkins - Sr. PF
Only one senior on the team this year, and here he is. I don't want to say Atkins had a disappointing season last year, but he did end up in the back end of the rotation. (I do not think it's an attitude problem, as some do suggest; Atkins projects that image with his facial expressions, but - that's just sort of how he looks, all the time.) His peak so far has been the beginning of his sophomore year when he and Mitchell were forming an eye-opening combo of tremendously athletic power forwards that gave teams absolute fits trying to score on them.
Unfortunately, Atkins developed shin splints, which, even when he did play, robbed him of that bounciness, and he looked crushingly average the rest of the way. Last year, he got overtaken, mostly by Anthony Gill, who proved the far superior scorer and a good enough defender.
Now, though, there's no Mitchell. He'll be the hardest player to replace too, no offense to Harris. Mitchell quarterbacked the defense and was never out of position. Atkins probably won't start many games, if at all, and isn't a huge scoring threat. He probably trusts his hook shot a little too much. All the same, helping to replace Mitchell is exactly what he needs to do. Atkins has it in him to be a very good shotblocker, and his offensive rebounding didn't get enough credit last year. If he can carry that over to consistent double-digit minutes every game, he'll be giving us exactly what we need out of him.
#10 - Mike Tobey - Jr. C
Speaking of guys who need to step up. This is a big, big year for Tobey. It would be really unfair to say he's underperformed, but he's also been quite a tease. His game isn't inconsistent. It's just that when he's scoring, he looks smooth and skilled for a big man; when he's not, the same game looks soft and unassertive. It's easy to forget - he's young for his age, to coin a Yogi Berra-ism, and his development is pretty much exactly how it should be. In many respects he's been the victim of his own expectations.
Doesn't let him off the hook to keep on developing, though. 10 points a game is not too much to ask, and it'd be great news for our offense: a consistent scoring source that wasn't there last year. Malcolm Brogdon told ESPN's Andy Katz that the team is going to look inside more, and that's basically code for getting more out of Tobey than 6.4 ppg.
This is doable. Not only does Tobey have very good range for a big, and isn't a hopeless mess at the line like many bigs, his offensive rebounding last year was just shy of elite. He takes care of the ball well, and is also the team's best shot-blocker. He was a starter last year, but was only seventh in minutes; I don't at all expect that to be the case this year. Just getting him on the court for eight more minutes a game will boost his numbers and his impact. Keep him on the development curve at the same time and he's got a chance to open a lot of eyes in the ACC this year.
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Game preview as normal tomorrow, and then special weekend-ish continuations of the hoops season preview. Touch not the dial.
Tuesday, August 12, 2014
catching up
Let's pretend for a minute that this is a UVA blog and that we should talk about a few UVA things that have gone on. Not training camp, mostly; it's never been my style to ruthlessly dissect every nugget, because most of them are the same claptrap every year. Defensive coordinators talk about their aggressive defense; somebody is "really making his mark" and then promptly disappears the moment the games begin; the schemes are "adding new wrinkles" or "focusing on the basics" and either is an improvement. Like clockwork. I prefer to wait til it's all over and then sift through the results. So maybe a few football things, but not all.
-- The Maryland lawsuit saga is finally over, with both sides agreeing basically not to bother each other any more and no more money changing hands. The ACC has withheld about $31 million, and agreed not to go after any more in exchange for Maryland not trying to get any of it back. One Sabreite theorizes, based on whatever source he has, that the settlement has to do with a future ACC Network, and the lawsuit being a real drag on those plans because the ACC would've had a hard time calling itself damaged by the loss of Maryland while at the same time firing up the money machine.
That may be, but I have a simpler (albeit not mutually exclusive) theory: now that Maryland's officially gone, collecting any further damages requires actually being written a check by Maryland rather than simply not giving them any money. This was unlikely to happen without an order from whatever was the highest court that deigned to hear the case following the usual lineup of appeals, which means that if the ACC really wanted to pursue this, they probably weren't getting paid until like 2018. Maryland's case was always tenuous and slightly nonsensical - it was based on the idea that since they didn't vote for the higher exit fee they shouldn't have to pay it. Accepting that argument would more or less require any private organization to have unanimous consent of its members to do anything at all, so it was bound to go nowhere fast. Maryland had an excellent incentive to just let the whole thing drop.
-- I include this football article mainly to point out the likelihood that the Hoos will have neither Dominique Terrell nor Jay Whitmire this coming year. Best guess: the coaches will do everything they can to get Whitmire in the lineup only if they get the notion that he won't get a medical redshirt (which would give him a 6th year of eligibilty.) If they think he can get the NCAA waiver, he'll sit the year.
-- This is an excellent article, I think, on freshman guard B.J. Stith. B.J. has some unique challenges in front of him, following in dad Bryant's footsteps at UVA, and you really get the impression that both of them understand the nature of it. And that B.J. is more than mature enough to handle it.
-- Speaking of handling things, Evan Nolte went out and did silly college things and we now get to know about it because he's a basketball player and not just some dude. Actually the story is sort of funny. CPD went easy on him, which is nice.
-- ESPN released their "Big Monday" schedule (I think Monday's kind of an annoying day for the big weekly hoops showcase, but whatever) and guess who leads the ACC in appearances? UVA has games featured against UNC, Pitt, and Syracuse. Only UNC has as many as three games featured. Duke and UNC will still have their rivalry hyped to the moon and back, but still.
-- Cleveland is becoming the home of UVA sportsters of all types. Tim Smith signed with the Browns last week; this sees him join Joe Harris, of course with the Cavaliers, and Kyle Crockett pitching for the Indians with Mike Papi in the Indians' system with middle-A Lake County. Smith's chances of making the Browns' final roster are certainly slim, but exposure is exposure.
Cleveland is all well and good, but personally I'm having even more fun following the exploits of Artie Lewicki (middle-A West Michigan) and Whit Mayberry (high-A Lakeland) in the Tigers' system. Both are pitching very, very well, in case you were wondering.
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
the recruit: B.J. Stith
Name: B.J. Stith
Position: SG
Hometown: Lawrenceville
School: Oak Hill
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 175
24/7: 94, four stars; #12 SG, VA #2, US #44
ESPN: 80, four stars; #19 SG, VA #2, Atl #14
Rivals: four stars; US #36
Scout: four stars; #19 SG
Other offers: none
For those of you just getting back from your five-year tour in Antarctica, B.J. Stith is the son - the second son, he has an older brother Brandan who'll play his college ball at East Carolina - of UVA legend Bryant Stith. Naturally, therefore, his every move has been watched by recruitophiles for a long time now, and much of what I'm going to say is already well-known.
I normally write the basketball profiles within the week after the commitment, but in Stith's case that didn't make much sense. It's been almost two years since he verbaled up, which is to say that he did so before his sophomore year even began. September of 2011, specifically. There wasn't hardly anything to go on, so I made the executive decision to file it for the summer of 2013. Close enough. This is about the time for Stith's classmates of 2014 to get with the committing business, and we'd be doing this around now if Stith had followed the usual protocol instead of jumping two years early.
A lot has happened since then. Eldest brother Brandan went to ECU, as mentioned; UVA wanted him to prep a year, largely to see if he'd grow, because he's something of a tweener. He decided not to. Old UVA coach Jeff Jones got hired at ODU, and got the gang back together in a way by hiring his former pupil: Bryant Stith. Dad Bryant had been B.J.'s coach at Brunswick HS, where B.J. played his first three years. That sort of gave an extra push to something that was long in the works already: a transfer to Oak Hill, where the competition will be better than what he'd have had at Brunswick. Also helping to precipitate the move: Brunswick is dropping a division.
Stith's arrival in the fall of 2014 will be a welcome sight, because the Hoos are woefully short of true shooting guards, particularly now that Paul Jesperson has announced his departure. Malcolm Brogdon is being counted on for a return, but this is UVA and we can't have nice things and Brogdon isn't totally assured of coming back. Joe Harris will have graduated by the time Stith arrives. If we have Brogdon like we should, great; if not, Taylor Barnette will be the only real two on the team. Justin Anderson is kind of a two, but not really.
Anderson happens to be a good comparison for Stith's game. Harris as well. Stith is more athletic than Harris, less so than Anderson; he'll likely bring a better perimeter shot than Anderson but might be hard-pressed to match Harris in that department. He's got good court vision and the playmaking skills that Harris and Anderson bring, and is about their size if a little bit skinnier. (Lest you need reminding, though, he's still in high school.) He's got the creation-for-self skills that this team lacked so greatly last season, and he can do that with both hands, adding a little extra dimension of danger to his game. Bryant calls his game very perimeter-oriented, which makes him a great fit. You've got a star player who just happens to in love with the school where he's a legacy, at a position and time where that school needs him the most. Couldn't draw it up any better if you tried.
B.J. is very well-liked by the scouting services, with four stars all around, and generally considered one of the top 50 players in his class. The lack of offers is because of the early commitment and the blatantly obvious blue and orange blood. It's too bad we don't have a list of competitive offers to compare ourselves against (Ohio State came sniffing around, but neither they nor anyone else had a prayer), but I'll trade that for the kind of loyalty B.J. has for UVA in an instant. Lest you think his was a hasty call, Bryant tried like hell to talk him out of such an early decision. Wasn't happening. B.J. asked his dad for three good reasons why he shouldn't commit early. Bryant's best efforts couldn't sway him into holding off. And he seems to be perfectly happy not having gone through the typical whirlwind of hoops recruiting. Take that whole package, add the great head that B.J. carries on his shoulders (did we mention the 4.0 grade point?) and it's hard to imagine how any recruit could ever fit UVA better than this one.
Position: SG
Hometown: Lawrenceville
School: Oak Hill
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 175
24/7: 94, four stars; #12 SG, VA #2, US #44
ESPN: 80, four stars; #19 SG, VA #2, Atl #14
Rivals: four stars; US #36
Scout: four stars; #19 SG
Other offers: none
For those of you just getting back from your five-year tour in Antarctica, B.J. Stith is the son - the second son, he has an older brother Brandan who'll play his college ball at East Carolina - of UVA legend Bryant Stith. Naturally, therefore, his every move has been watched by recruitophiles for a long time now, and much of what I'm going to say is already well-known.
I normally write the basketball profiles within the week after the commitment, but in Stith's case that didn't make much sense. It's been almost two years since he verbaled up, which is to say that he did so before his sophomore year even began. September of 2011, specifically. There wasn't hardly anything to go on, so I made the executive decision to file it for the summer of 2013. Close enough. This is about the time for Stith's classmates of 2014 to get with the committing business, and we'd be doing this around now if Stith had followed the usual protocol instead of jumping two years early.
A lot has happened since then. Eldest brother Brandan went to ECU, as mentioned; UVA wanted him to prep a year, largely to see if he'd grow, because he's something of a tweener. He decided not to. Old UVA coach Jeff Jones got hired at ODU, and got the gang back together in a way by hiring his former pupil: Bryant Stith. Dad Bryant had been B.J.'s coach at Brunswick HS, where B.J. played his first three years. That sort of gave an extra push to something that was long in the works already: a transfer to Oak Hill, where the competition will be better than what he'd have had at Brunswick. Also helping to precipitate the move: Brunswick is dropping a division.
Stith's arrival in the fall of 2014 will be a welcome sight, because the Hoos are woefully short of true shooting guards, particularly now that Paul Jesperson has announced his departure. Malcolm Brogdon is being counted on for a return, but this is UVA and we can't have nice things and Brogdon isn't totally assured of coming back. Joe Harris will have graduated by the time Stith arrives. If we have Brogdon like we should, great; if not, Taylor Barnette will be the only real two on the team. Justin Anderson is kind of a two, but not really.
Anderson happens to be a good comparison for Stith's game. Harris as well. Stith is more athletic than Harris, less so than Anderson; he'll likely bring a better perimeter shot than Anderson but might be hard-pressed to match Harris in that department. He's got good court vision and the playmaking skills that Harris and Anderson bring, and is about their size if a little bit skinnier. (Lest you need reminding, though, he's still in high school.) He's got the creation-for-self skills that this team lacked so greatly last season, and he can do that with both hands, adding a little extra dimension of danger to his game. Bryant calls his game very perimeter-oriented, which makes him a great fit. You've got a star player who just happens to in love with the school where he's a legacy, at a position and time where that school needs him the most. Couldn't draw it up any better if you tried.
B.J. is very well-liked by the scouting services, with four stars all around, and generally considered one of the top 50 players in his class. The lack of offers is because of the early commitment and the blatantly obvious blue and orange blood. It's too bad we don't have a list of competitive offers to compare ourselves against (Ohio State came sniffing around, but neither they nor anyone else had a prayer), but I'll trade that for the kind of loyalty B.J. has for UVA in an instant. Lest you think his was a hasty call, Bryant tried like hell to talk him out of such an early decision. Wasn't happening. B.J. asked his dad for three good reasons why he shouldn't commit early. Bryant's best efforts couldn't sway him into holding off. And he seems to be perfectly happy not having gone through the typical whirlwind of hoops recruiting. Take that whole package, add the great head that B.J. carries on his shoulders (did we mention the 4.0 grade point?) and it's hard to imagine how any recruit could ever fit UVA better than this one.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
the transfer: Anthony Gill
WOOT WOOT. After a couple months of suspense, Tony Bennett nabbed a long-sought transfer player: power forward Anthony Gill, formerly of South Carolina. USC-E made a coaching change, replacing Darrin Horn with Frank Martin of Kansas State, and coaching changes always mean transfers, and one thing led to another and here we are.
"One thing and another" are mostly our dire need for a scoring big man and our coaches letting Gill know that. Make a guy feel wanted and he'll respond in kind. He must have felt very wanted, actually, because word came down early yesterday afternoon that he'd picked UVA - in other words, probably not even 36 hours after he'd left Columbus on his official visit to Ohio State.
Yeah, the Ohio State that goes to Final Fours and such. Also after Gill - though in an on-and-off manner before finally giving him an ultimatum - was UNC, the same UNC that goes to Final Fours and such. UVA had a leg up: Gill was high school teammates at Charlotte Christian with Akil Mitchell.
The basics, then: Gill is a 6'8", 235 pound power forward. He's a wee bit undersized for our needs; if I could be picky and specific I'd ask for about 6'10" if you please, but I'm not complaining about a 98% fit. Gill averaged 7.6 points, 4.7 boards, and 1.1 assists for South Carolina - an integral part of the team despite being a freshman. Definitely the best freshman they had, which means he did a good job of living up to his recruiting rankings. Every service put him in their Top Whatever, and though he was never gonna have one-and-done skills, he didn't disappoint at all.
KenPom gave Gill an O-rating of 100.2, right in the middle of the usefulness range (90 is pretty low, 110 is really good) - maybe the best comparison is that in 2010-11, Mu Farrakhan had a 100.4. Gill's 100.2 isn't blow-you-away stuff. You'd like to see a big man have a better shooting percentage, for example - Gill's was .453. But for a freshman big man, Gill's performance was pretty good.
AG's coaches don't hesitate to compare him to Mike Scott. Now, I'll believe that when I see AG cure a person's cancer by touching a basketball and then viciously dunking that basketball on the poor cancer victim. Or I'll believe it when I see if Gill's jumper is as sweet as Mike's. It wouldn't be quite fair to compare because it took Mike Scott years to develop that jumper, but just so's you know, AG shot .393 (11-for-28) from three-point-land this year. Gill's 7.6, 4.7 stacks up pretty favorably to Mike's 5.7, 5.3 his own freshman year (albeit in seven more minutes per game), so the potential is very, very much there.
When AG is eligible to play in 2013-2014, the big-man situation looks like this: Akil Mitchell will be a senior, Darion Atkins a junior, and Gill and Mike Tobey, sophomores. That's still thin. The coaches are hoping Brandan Stith grows a few inches and joins as another big in 2014, but that's a ways off. There isn't much scoring punch from the bigs, except for the hope that some develops. I don't think Mitchell will be a scorer. Atkins, we'll see, but he didn't flash much ability in that regard this year. Tobey, we have no idea. That makes Gill the best bird in the hand, where we sit right now.
The coaches might now go after Gill's South Carolina teammate, Damontre Harris. Harris averaged 6.8 points on .550 shooting, but wasn't counted on for offense; he played the second-most minutes of anyone on the Gamecock roster but took the fifth-most shots. Very low-usage. Whether the coaches make a push for Harris will likely depend on whether they think the 6'9"-but-skinny Harris can be an offensive threat.
It might not seem like it, but the coaches have to tread a little bit carefully with the scholarship situation. The deal is that B.J. Stith is committed for 2014, and if the coaches get their way, Brandan Stith and Devon Hall will join him. That'd be like totally sweet you guys OMG you have no idea, but we have to make sure there's room. Right now, nine scholarships are spoken for in the 2014-2015 season, and no, I'm not going to assume attrition, which means that if we want both Stiths and Hall, we can take no more than two more people right now. Meaning, the 2013 recruiting class is gonna be tiny, especially if we take another transfer, and don't think the coaches aren't still actively looking. Oh, and one of the next two guys has got to be a point guard.
Meanwhile, Gill. An instant starter when he's eligible, and here's why: his competition for playing time is mainly guys who defend more than they score, and the chances of us landing a really, really good big guy in the 2013 class are small. (We might get a really, really good guard - Big Cat Barber, you listening? - but there aren't any bigs on the radar.) Bennett might prefer a defender, of course, you know how he is, but I think as long as Gill gets the gist, and he's got a no-pressure year to learn, he'll get the nod. I think he'll be a starter from Day 1. So any time you can add that kind of guy to the lineup, it's a big deal.
"One thing and another" are mostly our dire need for a scoring big man and our coaches letting Gill know that. Make a guy feel wanted and he'll respond in kind. He must have felt very wanted, actually, because word came down early yesterday afternoon that he'd picked UVA - in other words, probably not even 36 hours after he'd left Columbus on his official visit to Ohio State.
Yeah, the Ohio State that goes to Final Fours and such. Also after Gill - though in an on-and-off manner before finally giving him an ultimatum - was UNC, the same UNC that goes to Final Fours and such. UVA had a leg up: Gill was high school teammates at Charlotte Christian with Akil Mitchell.
The basics, then: Gill is a 6'8", 235 pound power forward. He's a wee bit undersized for our needs; if I could be picky and specific I'd ask for about 6'10" if you please, but I'm not complaining about a 98% fit. Gill averaged 7.6 points, 4.7 boards, and 1.1 assists for South Carolina - an integral part of the team despite being a freshman. Definitely the best freshman they had, which means he did a good job of living up to his recruiting rankings. Every service put him in their Top Whatever, and though he was never gonna have one-and-done skills, he didn't disappoint at all.
KenPom gave Gill an O-rating of 100.2, right in the middle of the usefulness range (90 is pretty low, 110 is really good) - maybe the best comparison is that in 2010-11, Mu Farrakhan had a 100.4. Gill's 100.2 isn't blow-you-away stuff. You'd like to see a big man have a better shooting percentage, for example - Gill's was .453. But for a freshman big man, Gill's performance was pretty good.
AG's coaches don't hesitate to compare him to Mike Scott. Now, I'll believe that when I see AG cure a person's cancer by touching a basketball and then viciously dunking that basketball on the poor cancer victim. Or I'll believe it when I see if Gill's jumper is as sweet as Mike's. It wouldn't be quite fair to compare because it took Mike Scott years to develop that jumper, but just so's you know, AG shot .393 (11-for-28) from three-point-land this year. Gill's 7.6, 4.7 stacks up pretty favorably to Mike's 5.7, 5.3 his own freshman year (albeit in seven more minutes per game), so the potential is very, very much there.
When AG is eligible to play in 2013-2014, the big-man situation looks like this: Akil Mitchell will be a senior, Darion Atkins a junior, and Gill and Mike Tobey, sophomores. That's still thin. The coaches are hoping Brandan Stith grows a few inches and joins as another big in 2014, but that's a ways off. There isn't much scoring punch from the bigs, except for the hope that some develops. I don't think Mitchell will be a scorer. Atkins, we'll see, but he didn't flash much ability in that regard this year. Tobey, we have no idea. That makes Gill the best bird in the hand, where we sit right now.
The coaches might now go after Gill's South Carolina teammate, Damontre Harris. Harris averaged 6.8 points on .550 shooting, but wasn't counted on for offense; he played the second-most minutes of anyone on the Gamecock roster but took the fifth-most shots. Very low-usage. Whether the coaches make a push for Harris will likely depend on whether they think the 6'9"-but-skinny Harris can be an offensive threat.
It might not seem like it, but the coaches have to tread a little bit carefully with the scholarship situation. The deal is that B.J. Stith is committed for 2014, and if the coaches get their way, Brandan Stith and Devon Hall will join him. That'd be like totally sweet you guys OMG you have no idea, but we have to make sure there's room. Right now, nine scholarships are spoken for in the 2014-2015 season, and no, I'm not going to assume attrition, which means that if we want both Stiths and Hall, we can take no more than two more people right now. Meaning, the 2013 recruiting class is gonna be tiny, especially if we take another transfer, and don't think the coaches aren't still actively looking. Oh, and one of the next two guys has got to be a point guard.
Meanwhile, Gill. An instant starter when he's eligible, and here's why: his competition for playing time is mainly guys who defend more than they score, and the chances of us landing a really, really good big guy in the 2013 class are small. (We might get a really, really good guard - Big Cat Barber, you listening? - but there aren't any bigs on the radar.) Bennett might prefer a defender, of course, you know how he is, but I think as long as Gill gets the gist, and he's got a no-pressure year to learn, he'll get the nod. I think he'll be a starter from Day 1. So any time you can add that kind of guy to the lineup, it's a big deal.
Monday, September 5, 2011
weekend review
And I'm back from mini-vacation. Had time to squeeze in some game-watching, which is good because there's something about winning by 37 that makes long weekends even better. Doesn't even matter who you're playing.
I can't think of any bad things to say about the game that don't involve "but it was 'only William & Mary.'" Not many, anyway. A few small things, I guess, that could theoretically dampen your enthusiasm but probably shouldn't:
-- Mike Paulus sucked. The defense benefited greatly from a horrible, horrible day by the opposing quarterback that wasn't even the result of awesome coverage or a ton of pressure. I mean, that was poor.
-- Eight penalties, although I was actually surprised to see the number was that high. I kept thinking to myself during the game how penalty-free things were looking. Guess I wasn't paying close enough attention to the flags.
-- David Watford looked pretty freshman-y.
But that's about it. Otherwise, helmet stickers for all. I could spend all day listing all the great things about the game and all the players that stood out with quality performances, but that's too long a list, so here's the one thing that made this thing fun above all other things: Freshmen. Specifically, the new faces that played starring roles. Doesn't necessarily have to be freshmen; Tim Smith kind of burst onto the scene in a whole new way, for example, as did Justin Renfrow and Will Hill on the defensive line. Kevin Parks and Clifton Richardson running the ball. Mike Rocco. Demetrious Nicholson with an interception. Darius Jennings. It's kind of a truism that a coach's "era" doesn't really begin until his second year, and here we are and that era just began in a very big way.
*********************************************
This is a new thing I'm doing this year, which by the end of the season will either be a huge exercise in trumpeting my own horn, or an unprecedented display of embarrassing accountability. Veteran readers might have picked up on the different format for game previews this year, including a set of predictons, and I'm going to review them semi-excruciatingly and see how I did. And keep track all year, to see if I'm good at this stuff or not. Here, then, are the predictions I made in the game preview and whether or not they came to pass:
- UVA's biggest advantage will be when they are running the ball, as W&M's front seven is too undersized and unable to rotate players effectively.
Verdict: Oh, absolutely. Nothing went better on Saturday than the running game. UVA ran the ball whenever and wherever they wanted, and everybody got in on that action. Complete dominance on the ground. If the ground game gets two-thirds of that kind of result in every game this year UVA will win eight games. Prediction was TRUE.
- Perry Jones will carry for more than 100 yards.
Verdict: FALSE thanks to the hot hand of Kevin Parks. Otherwise he probably would've.
- Kris Burd will have more than 100 yards receiving.
Verdict: FALSE again, as the passing game plan was even more conservative than I expected and Tim Smith was the one who led the team in receiving. These are both very healthy falses though; they bode well for the offense.
- Mike Rocco's day will look a lot like Marc Verica's against Richmond in 2010.
Verdict: I'm gonna give myself a TRUE even though Rocco threw for 100 fewer yards and no touchdowns (Verica had one.) Why? Both had high completion percentages, rarely threw deep, and were given a very similar game plan. Really what caused the difference in their stats was the use of Watford for a few series and the late insertion of Ross Metheny. Verica threw all the passes last year.
- David Watford will throw the ball at least once or twice.
Verdict: Obviously TRUE as he threw five times; in retrospect this looks like a silly gimme and I feel a littly guilty taking credit, but I'm going to anyway.
- Jonathan Grimes will have at least one big run.
Verdict: FALSE in a very good way. Grimes, the Heisman-equivalent candidate, was a complete nonfactor.
- W&M will find little running room inside.
Verdict: TRUE in a very good way. W&M's running game was shut down; they averaged 2.75 yards even when you don't count the one sack. No room either inside or out.
- W&M will have some success passing the ball in the short game to Grimes and Alex Gottlieb, but the receivers will be, by and large, shut down.
Verdict: Half TRUE, so I'm counting it. They'd've had more success going to Gottlieb if Paulus could've delivered the ball to his area code. The wide receivers were a nonfactor. Ryan Woolfolk didn't catch a pass; D.J. Mangas caught three, but all the rest of the completions (such as there were) went to backs and tight ends and suchlike.
- UVA's pass rush will give Mike Paulus trouble.
Verdict: Not so much, actually. One "sack," of which Paulus was not the victim, and was the result of forcing the ball out of bounds rather than your traditional sack. I don't remember many blitzes by the UVA defense and I wouldn't be surprised at all to re-review the game and find there were none. Very, very vanilla gameplan on defense, especially starting in the third quarter when the game was getting out of hand; I think after that point the defense just stood in the basic 4-3 without a single wrinkle. The pocket got pushed inwards at times, but the pass rush just was not a factor. Going out on a FALSE note.
This leaves me 5 for 9 on the week. Going to keep track all season and see how I do.
*********************************************
Now for the Senior Seasons section, in which we check in on the verbal commits and how they're doing this year:
DeMatha 24, Loyola Blakefield 20: Michael Moore knocked down a fourth-and-goal pass in the late minutes to preserve DeMatha's season-opening win. DeMatha is 1-0.
Salem 31, Bayside 6: Major humbling for Bayside. Anthony Cooper had just three catches for 40 yards. Some major 2013 targets involved here, including Bayside RB Taquan Mizzell and Salem QB Bucky Hodges. Bayside is 0-1.
Ocean Lakes 40, Princess Anne 7: Eli Harold caught 3 passes for 73 yards. Ocean Lakes is 1-0.
Landstown 27, Kellam 7: Kyle Dockins intercepted a pass. Landstown is 1-0.
North Cross 34, Norfolk Christian 27: Worrisome start to the season for the NCS boys; they lost to Liberty Christian last Monday in a makeup of their game that was postponed by the hurricane. Mario Nixon had four catches for 102 yards and two touchdowns.
Other games:
Admiral Farragut 42, Victory Christian 13 (Demeitre Brim**; VCA is 0-1.)
Buford 35, Carver 7 (C.J. Moore; Buford is 3-0.)
Appling County 35, Wayne County 25 (Greyson Lambert; Wayne is 0-1-1.)
Ridley 21, Malvern Prep 20 (Michael Mooney; Malvern is 0-1.)
Council Rock North 42, Central Bucks South 20 (Matt Johns; CB South is 0-1.)
Langham Creek 66, Stratford 28 (Kelvin Rainey; Stratford is 0-2.)
Green Run 22, Cox 16 (Mark Hall; Green Run is 1-0.)
Hampton 43, Heritage 0 (Jamall Brown; Hampton is 1-0.)
**Brim is out for a little bit with a broken jaw.
*********************************************
And you know we can't go without a famous recruiting board update. We pretty much have to since it's been like three weeks and that was enough time for some action. Here are the changes:
- Moved CB Kelvin Rainey from green to orange. Rainey committed just today; you might've noticed I snuck in his results from this week above.
- Removed RB Chris Mangus from blue. Whatever tactic they're using at VT to recruit running backs out from under our nose, it's working. (Likely enough it's "you don't want to sit behind Clifton Richardson and Kevin Parks for four years" which means we're in pretty good shape, actually.)
- Removed OT Blake Fromang (Vandy) and S A.J. Justice (SMU) from yellow. The latter's offer was only semi-committable with this class filling up.
That's it for that. There isn't much drama left here; Canaan Severin will be the next one to watch for.
But lastly, that's not it for recruiting. The biggest recruiting news of the weekend came from the basketball world - and won't pay off for years. That would be the commitment of B.J. Stith, and if the name seems vaguely familiar then you need to brush up on your history, son. B.J. is the younger son of all-time UVA great Bryant Stith; his brother Brandan will eventually join him (probably), giving us a thrill in 2014 when not one but two Stiths are once again in uniform for the Hoos.** I usually write up a profile on basketball recruits right away, but I had to have a little internal debate on this one and "write a profile" lost out. B.J. is just a sophomore starting this year; a damn good one, supposedly, but a sophomore nonetheless and there isn't much to go on. I'll file it for the summer of 2013. We're just gonna have to be patient on this one.
**Having a Stith in blue and orange again is yet another good reason to play a throwback game once a year in U-Hall. This needs to happen.
I can't think of any bad things to say about the game that don't involve "but it was 'only William & Mary.'" Not many, anyway. A few small things, I guess, that could theoretically dampen your enthusiasm but probably shouldn't:
-- Mike Paulus sucked. The defense benefited greatly from a horrible, horrible day by the opposing quarterback that wasn't even the result of awesome coverage or a ton of pressure. I mean, that was poor.
-- Eight penalties, although I was actually surprised to see the number was that high. I kept thinking to myself during the game how penalty-free things were looking. Guess I wasn't paying close enough attention to the flags.
-- David Watford looked pretty freshman-y.
But that's about it. Otherwise, helmet stickers for all. I could spend all day listing all the great things about the game and all the players that stood out with quality performances, but that's too long a list, so here's the one thing that made this thing fun above all other things: Freshmen. Specifically, the new faces that played starring roles. Doesn't necessarily have to be freshmen; Tim Smith kind of burst onto the scene in a whole new way, for example, as did Justin Renfrow and Will Hill on the defensive line. Kevin Parks and Clifton Richardson running the ball. Mike Rocco. Demetrious Nicholson with an interception. Darius Jennings. It's kind of a truism that a coach's "era" doesn't really begin until his second year, and here we are and that era just began in a very big way.
*********************************************
This is a new thing I'm doing this year, which by the end of the season will either be a huge exercise in trumpeting my own horn, or an unprecedented display of embarrassing accountability. Veteran readers might have picked up on the different format for game previews this year, including a set of predictons, and I'm going to review them semi-excruciatingly and see how I did. And keep track all year, to see if I'm good at this stuff or not. Here, then, are the predictions I made in the game preview and whether or not they came to pass:
- UVA's biggest advantage will be when they are running the ball, as W&M's front seven is too undersized and unable to rotate players effectively.
Verdict: Oh, absolutely. Nothing went better on Saturday than the running game. UVA ran the ball whenever and wherever they wanted, and everybody got in on that action. Complete dominance on the ground. If the ground game gets two-thirds of that kind of result in every game this year UVA will win eight games. Prediction was TRUE.
- Perry Jones will carry for more than 100 yards.
Verdict: FALSE thanks to the hot hand of Kevin Parks. Otherwise he probably would've.
- Kris Burd will have more than 100 yards receiving.
Verdict: FALSE again, as the passing game plan was even more conservative than I expected and Tim Smith was the one who led the team in receiving. These are both very healthy falses though; they bode well for the offense.
- Mike Rocco's day will look a lot like Marc Verica's against Richmond in 2010.
Verdict: I'm gonna give myself a TRUE even though Rocco threw for 100 fewer yards and no touchdowns (Verica had one.) Why? Both had high completion percentages, rarely threw deep, and were given a very similar game plan. Really what caused the difference in their stats was the use of Watford for a few series and the late insertion of Ross Metheny. Verica threw all the passes last year.
- David Watford will throw the ball at least once or twice.
Verdict: Obviously TRUE as he threw five times; in retrospect this looks like a silly gimme and I feel a littly guilty taking credit, but I'm going to anyway.
- Jonathan Grimes will have at least one big run.
Verdict: FALSE in a very good way. Grimes, the Heisman-equivalent candidate, was a complete nonfactor.
- W&M will find little running room inside.
Verdict: TRUE in a very good way. W&M's running game was shut down; they averaged 2.75 yards even when you don't count the one sack. No room either inside or out.
- W&M will have some success passing the ball in the short game to Grimes and Alex Gottlieb, but the receivers will be, by and large, shut down.
Verdict: Half TRUE, so I'm counting it. They'd've had more success going to Gottlieb if Paulus could've delivered the ball to his area code. The wide receivers were a nonfactor. Ryan Woolfolk didn't catch a pass; D.J. Mangas caught three, but all the rest of the completions (such as there were) went to backs and tight ends and suchlike.
- UVA's pass rush will give Mike Paulus trouble.
Verdict: Not so much, actually. One "sack," of which Paulus was not the victim, and was the result of forcing the ball out of bounds rather than your traditional sack. I don't remember many blitzes by the UVA defense and I wouldn't be surprised at all to re-review the game and find there were none. Very, very vanilla gameplan on defense, especially starting in the third quarter when the game was getting out of hand; I think after that point the defense just stood in the basic 4-3 without a single wrinkle. The pocket got pushed inwards at times, but the pass rush just was not a factor. Going out on a FALSE note.
This leaves me 5 for 9 on the week. Going to keep track all season and see how I do.
*********************************************
Now for the Senior Seasons section, in which we check in on the verbal commits and how they're doing this year:
DeMatha 24, Loyola Blakefield 20: Michael Moore knocked down a fourth-and-goal pass in the late minutes to preserve DeMatha's season-opening win. DeMatha is 1-0.
Salem 31, Bayside 6: Major humbling for Bayside. Anthony Cooper had just three catches for 40 yards. Some major 2013 targets involved here, including Bayside RB Taquan Mizzell and Salem QB Bucky Hodges. Bayside is 0-1.
Ocean Lakes 40, Princess Anne 7: Eli Harold caught 3 passes for 73 yards. Ocean Lakes is 1-0.
Landstown 27, Kellam 7: Kyle Dockins intercepted a pass. Landstown is 1-0.
North Cross 34, Norfolk Christian 27: Worrisome start to the season for the NCS boys; they lost to Liberty Christian last Monday in a makeup of their game that was postponed by the hurricane. Mario Nixon had four catches for 102 yards and two touchdowns.
Other games:
Admiral Farragut 42, Victory Christian 13 (Demeitre Brim**; VCA is 0-1.)
Buford 35, Carver 7 (C.J. Moore; Buford is 3-0.)
Appling County 35, Wayne County 25 (Greyson Lambert; Wayne is 0-1-1.)
Ridley 21, Malvern Prep 20 (Michael Mooney; Malvern is 0-1.)
Council Rock North 42, Central Bucks South 20 (Matt Johns; CB South is 0-1.)
Langham Creek 66, Stratford 28 (Kelvin Rainey; Stratford is 0-2.)
Green Run 22, Cox 16 (Mark Hall; Green Run is 1-0.)
Hampton 43, Heritage 0 (Jamall Brown; Hampton is 1-0.)
**Brim is out for a little bit with a broken jaw.
*********************************************
And you know we can't go without a famous recruiting board update. We pretty much have to since it's been like three weeks and that was enough time for some action. Here are the changes:
- Moved CB Kelvin Rainey from green to orange. Rainey committed just today; you might've noticed I snuck in his results from this week above.
- Removed RB Chris Mangus from blue. Whatever tactic they're using at VT to recruit running backs out from under our nose, it's working. (Likely enough it's "you don't want to sit behind Clifton Richardson and Kevin Parks for four years" which means we're in pretty good shape, actually.)
- Removed OT Blake Fromang (Vandy) and S A.J. Justice (SMU) from yellow. The latter's offer was only semi-committable with this class filling up.
That's it for that. There isn't much drama left here; Canaan Severin will be the next one to watch for.
But lastly, that's not it for recruiting. The biggest recruiting news of the weekend came from the basketball world - and won't pay off for years. That would be the commitment of B.J. Stith, and if the name seems vaguely familiar then you need to brush up on your history, son. B.J. is the younger son of all-time UVA great Bryant Stith; his brother Brandan will eventually join him (probably), giving us a thrill in 2014 when not one but two Stiths are once again in uniform for the Hoos.** I usually write up a profile on basketball recruits right away, but I had to have a little internal debate on this one and "write a profile" lost out. B.J. is just a sophomore starting this year; a damn good one, supposedly, but a sophomore nonetheless and there isn't much to go on. I'll file it for the summer of 2013. We're just gonna have to be patient on this one.
**Having a Stith in blue and orange again is yet another good reason to play a throwback game once a year in U-Hall. This needs to happen.
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