this schedule has ncaa tournament written all over it

OK, yes, obviously: realize that pretty much every word of this post stems from the rather unwarranted, perhaps Pollyanna-esque optimism that's so hard to fend off when it's five months since the last bumbling half-effort resulted in a defeat that would be humiliating if it hadn't already gone down the exact same eight times before. That's enough time to forget reality and focus once again on "potential," i.e., how well the team can play rather than how well they do play.

That said, here goes.

As you may know, the basketball schedule is out. There's so much to like about it. When the coaching search was going on, I opined in a lot of capital letters that this season ought to be NCAA Tournament or bust. I reasoned there's enough talent on this team to get to the NIT, which I expected Dave Leitao to be able to do. If you're going to fire a coach that's been just four years on the job and just two years removed from a regular-season ACC title, you'd better be looking for immediate improvement. How do you improve on the NIT? The answer is obvious. And I think this schedule is the near-perfect path to help us get there. It's just what we needed.

First, the nonconference portion. It's missing something that's been there in years past - namely, a halfway decent opponent. This year, there's just Stanford and maybe Kentucky, and Oral Roberts for a little mid-major danger. (And ORU took a major, major graduation hit.) It's a cupcakey joyride.

The upside, of course, is, we should breeze through it and hoard wins like cats in a crazy old lady's house. There are but two road games, two neutral-site games, and nine home games. We got a great draw in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and we get that game at home. There's a five-game homestand in December stretching into January that bring some of the most putrid teams in all the land to Charlottesville for the slaughter. We could have a minimum of 10 or 11 wins piled up by the beginning of the ACC gauntlet.

Now for the conference part of the schedule. Always since the expansion, you double up with five opponents and the other six, you play just once. We double up with NC State, Maryland, Wake, VT, and Miami. Duke, we play just once. UNC, just once. If that's not favorable I don't know what is. NC State is freefalling. VT lost Vassallo and isn't going to be good. Maryland is absurdly unpredictable. Wake loses their top two scorers, Teague and Johnson, and isn't going to repeat their 11-5 performance. Miami lost eight seniors and is all set to plummet to the cellar.

So the nonconference schedule is a cakewalk and the conference schedule is as close as it gets in the ACC. Are there eight or nine wins to be found in ACC play? Absolutely. Especially if Tony Bennett really is the X's and O's mastermind of repute, and hey, he turned Washington State into a four seed, so I'm inclined to believe he is.

Now, most fans (as well as bracketologists) are disappointed to see a parade of the NJITs, Texas-Pan Ams, and Longwoods of the world, and no Syracuse, Xavier, Arizona, etc. that's been there in the past. 9 times out of 10, I agree. Not this year. Not when we need to be seen winning games. Tony Bennett needs to establish himself as a major threat right away in order to maintain needed recruiting momentum, and that's not going to happen when Xavier is blowing us out by 40. Strength of schedule of course plays a huge role in tournament selection and we'll be woefully lacking in that category. Don't care. We need momentum and we need wins more than we need a fancy number in the strength of schedule column. And if the wins are there in ACC play like I think they are, it'll all take care of itself.

Obviously, this is all moot if the talent is really as bad as it looked last year. I say it's not. These aren't two-star, low-rent hacks. There's work to be done, clearly. Jeff Jones seems to have forgotten how to shoot. Jamil Tucker seems to have forgotten how to do everything but shoot. Assane Sene needs to learn how to do something beyond just be really tall and block shots - consistent rebounding would be a good start. Sammy Zeglinski needs to reverse the bass-ackwards developmental curve he was on last year, in which he looked like a junior at the beginning and a true freshman at the end. So it's obviously incumbent on the coaching staff to get these guys playing basketball and not just playin' ball. But the talent is there. These guys were all pretty highly recruited. Sylven Landesberg is still Sylven Landesberg, and the incoming freshmen are more talented than the outgoing seniors. There's plenty to work with here.

So yeah, look at me funny. But don't say you weren't warned when late February rolls around and we're living the hectic life of a bubble team: watching the other bubble results around the nation, fretting about whether our nonconference wins are strong enough, comparing our resume to random other teams in random other conferences, and insisting as always that the ACC is too obviously the world's best conference and ACC bubble teams should get automatic preference over lesser leagues like the SEC and A-10. I think the selection show will hold a lot of interest for us.

Time for some linkage. This one is about a week old but stuff just kept getting in the way so I couldn't find the right excuse to slide it in. It's still perfectly relevant, anyway: The ACCSJ tackles four questions surrounding UVA football, three of which have been asked every day since January or so.

Rivals ranks the top 15 b-ball recruiting classes for 2010. We're 11th. And just fifth in the ACC, which goes to show you: tough crowd. We should get a really nice bump, too, if we can snag Trae Golden and/or James Johnson. I like to see the ACC so well represented, though: 6 teams in the top 15. The Big Ten has four - impressive as well. Where is your god now, Big East? Failing to put more than one team in the top 15 is not how you challenge the ACC for hoops supremacy.

Brian of MGoBlog fame tackles the ACC quarterback carnage in a TSB post. Ugly, and that probably doesn't even cover the half of it; even though quarterbacks are dropping like flies all over the conference, Maryland is still stuck with Chris Turner.

The indispensible Jeff White reports that Robert Randolph has won the placekicking job. Comes as little surprise since he was the first off the bench when Reyering was hurt-slash-ineffective last year, but that's one of the training camp battles wrapped up. Also of note: Groh is being his usual cantankerous self when discussing Mikell Simpson and the protective boot he's wearing.

Hey look - another hurricane headed my way. The last one missed, but it was by and large predicted to. This one, uh, is not. So once again, if all of a sudden I don't seem to be posting anything, blame a hurricane with a really lame name.

season preview: Miami

This seems a very apropos post for pointing out a potential disruption in your normally scheduled blog-viewing activities:

Despite pictorial appearances, that's not a gumdrop rainbow taking aim at the northeastern end of the continent where hurricanes don't normally take up residence. I live in the red circle that I amateurishly drew on the NHC's pretty picture, so I think it's unlikely I'll see much more than a stiff breeze and a darkish gray sky, but if I'm inexplicably offline for a few days starting Sunday, you've been forewarned as to why.

Anyway, I am supposed to have my preseason Blogpoll ballot up sometime before Monday. So to make sure I don't go delinquent on my duties just because of a li'l ol' cyclone, and because voters are supposed to be presenting their ballots for recalibration by the masses, that will happen tomorrow. At some point soon I'll have to get around to a more informative update on Rijo Walker, the newest '10 commitment, but that'll happen when it happens, basically. Maybe this weekend, maybe next week. My early reaction, just to give you a sneak peek: yay, a frickin cornerback FINALLY.

Anyway, this is supposed to be about Hurricanes, not hurricanes, so here: Miami.

Schedule:

9/7: @ Florida State (Mon.)
9/12: BYE
9/17: Georgia Tech (Thu.)
9/26: @ Virginia Tech
10/3: Oklahoma
10/10: Florida A&M
10/17: @ Central Florida
10/24: Clemson
10/31: @ Wake Forest
11/7: Virginia
11/14: @ North Carolina
11/21: Duke
11/28: @ South Florida

Skip: Maryland, Boston College, NC State

Projected starters:

QB: Jacory Harris (So.)
RB: Graig Cooper (Jr.)
FB: Patrick Hill (Sr.)
WR: Aldarius Johnson (So.)
WR: Travis Benjamin (So.)
TE: Dedrick Epps (Sr.)
LT: Jason Fox (Sr.)
LG: Orlando Franklin (Jr.)
C: A.J. Trump (5Sr.)
RG: Joel Figueroa (rJr.)
RT: Matt Pipho (5Sr.)

DE: Eric Moncur (6Sr.)
DT: Joe Joseph (5Sr.)
DT: Allen Bailey (Jr.)
DE: Marcus Robinson (So.)
SLB: Colin McCarthy (rJr.)
MLB: Darryl Sharpton (5Sr.)
WLB: Sean Spence (So.)
CB: Brandon Harris (So.)
CB: Chavez Grant (Sr.)
FS: Vaughn Telemaque (rFr.)
SS: Randy Phillips (5Sr.)

K: Matt Bosher (rJr.)
P: Matt Bosher (rJr.)

(Italics indicate new starters.)

Coach: Randy Shannon (3rd season)

All-ACC:

2008 1st team: None
2008 2nd team: K/P Matt Bosher
2008 HM: S Anthony Reddick
2009 preseason: OT Jason Fox, K Matt Bosher

(Italics indicate departed player.)

Media prediction: 4th, Coastal Division

Randy Shannon has managed to do something once believed unthinkable: make Miami anonymous. It’s not that they’re not good, although they’re a shadow of the dominant program they once were. But look at the list of all-ACC performers from last season. First team – zero. Second team – the kicker. Only one non-special-teamer even got any votes. To follow it up, Miami’s been voted a very run-of-the-mill fourth in the division, and it almost seems as if by default.

OFFENSE

It’s not that there isn’t any talent. Actually most of these players are quite good, and the offense, if not handcuffed by playcalling (Miami felt their offensive troubles stemmed from the booth last year, and dismissed their offensive coordinator), should be productive. For starters, there will be no quarterback platoon this year. It was painfully obvious that Jacory Harris was the more productive quarterback of the pair, and with Robert Marve off to Purdue, Harris is the undisputed ringleader this year. And he’s got help. Miami’s stable of wide receivers looks a lot like ours in the age department, only they played a lot more last year. Nobody stepped up as a true go-to player, and that needs to change if Miami is to take their offense to the next level. But there are plenty of candidates to do so, starting on the outside with Aldarius Johnson, the team’s leading receiver last year. Also look out for Travis Benjamin, who moonlights as the primary kick returner and led the team in yards per catch. Thearon Collier isn’t going to grab many headlines but he’ll be another favored target, along with senior tight end Dedrick Epps, who tends to gather the kind of stats you typically get out of a prototypical dependable tight end.

Miami has a few options in the running game too. Graig Cooper figures to carry the load at running back, but don’t sleep on Javarris James. James’s career has been trending downwards ever since a breakout freshman year, to the point where he averaged just five carries a game last year. But this is his senior year, and last chances have a way of jolting people into gear. And don’t forget about Harris either – he was less the running threat than Marve was last year and is a pass-first quarterback, but he’s an above-scrambler and also will occasionally be the target of a trick pass.

The offensive line features three new starters on the right side and at center, but it’s not as dire as it sounds. First off, LT Jason Fox is a preseason all-ACC pick and has his eyes on the NFL after this year. As for the new starters, center A.J. Trump might be starting at a new position but he spent most of last year starting at right guard, so he knows his way around a football field. This move makes way for Joel Figueroa to step in at right guard after frequently rotating in off the bench in 2008. Matt Pipho moves to right tackle from the kick protection unit and could prove the line’s weak link, but he’s gotten his four years’ worth of coaching, which is always worth something.

DEFENSE

Up front, the Hurricanes are very deep, but once you get past the defensive line, it starts to thin out. Miami rotated a lot of players on the line in and out last year and gets the added benefit of a sixth year for Eric Moncur. They can put two 300-pound behemoth defensive tackles up front in Joe Joseph and Marcus Forston, and when one or the other needs a spell they have their 2008 sack leader, Allen Bailey, to line up. Forston earned all sorts of freshman all-American honors last year, and he was joined in that by Moncur’s other bookend, Marcus Robinson.

The linebacking unit is led by the 2008 ACC defensive ROY, Sean Spence. Spence was all over the field last year, especially opposing backfields, and proved to be a real asset in pass coverage as well. Opposite Spence, Colin McCarthy is an experienced player in his third year as the designated starter on the strong side, but missed most of last year with a shoulder injury. If he doesn’t miss a beat and plays as well as he did in 2007, he and Spence will be one of the top OLB duos in the country. Along with Darryl Sharpton, a linebacking nomad who’s played all three LB positions and this year is in the middle, these are the only linebackers on the roster with any real experience. Staying healthy will be critical.

As for the secondary, it’s a decided weakness. The ACC season preview for Miami claims the secondary had four interceptions last year, which by itself is a terrible number, but it’s bullshit – they had two. Spence and Moncur provided the other two. That’s right – Miami picked off all of four passes last year. Chavez Grant didn’t get any from his cornerback spot, but he broke up seven passes – a decent number, but it led the team. Five was second-best, and it wasn’t even a defensive back who did that. Yup – Spence again. Safety Anthony Reddick – the only non-special-teams player to garner a single vote in 2008 all-ACC voting – departs, leaving the secondary even thinner. He’ll be replaced by Vaughn Telemaque, who the Hurricane have high hopes for. If the secondary doesn’t improve, though, there will be several talented true freshmen pushing for playing time, especially super-recruit Ray Ray Armstrong and early enrollee Brandon McGee.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Matt Bosher does everything. He was 18 for 20 on field goals – basically automatic in the college game – and averaged 40 yards on his punts, including a long of 76 yards. Miami should have no worries here.

OUTLOOK

Talented team, if a bit generic. But we have yet to mention the number one factor affecting Miami’s success this year: THE SCHEDULE. And yes, everyone’s already mentioned the absolute gauntlet Miami must run in order to get to October. In case you lost count, that’s the three best teams in the ACC just to start the season and then, you know, Oklahoma, and oh yeah they get to visit both Doak Campbell and Lame Stadium. Coming out of there 1-3 should be considered a success. They likely won’t, which means they’ll have to win six of eight to get bowl eligible. What people don’t always mention is that they get to skip all the shitty teams in the Atlantic and play all the good ones, and frankly a 2-6 conference record would not be a complete and total shock. It would also doom them to bowl ineligibility, because they’re not beating Oklahoma. Despite the talent on this team, they should probably consider themselves lucky to get out of this hellhole schedule with six or seven wins. 8-4 would be a major shot across the ACC’s bow for 2010.

game preview: Brown

A quickish programming note before I write anything about Brown. I've given up on the last basketball season preview. You're missing out on Wake. Sorry. They're pretty good. There ya go.

So what am I up to since I'm blowing that off? Here's what the future holds, if I stick to plan:

- I have one more football game to make highlights out of. That should be sometime in the next couple weeks.

- Hopefully I will also have some basketball games to make highlights out of. Any basketball win I get my claws on will also go in the videos section.

- I'm also converting my recordings over to DVD. I don't have a full-time studio, I have a personal computer, and I don't have the space to store them all. Where this applies to the blog and you, lucky reader, is that hopefully I can get my paws on some older games that I didn't have, and then the videos section can get really interesting.

- As for actual writing, I have certain plans. I skipped the Xavier game preview, but that's probably the last one I'll skip. I have to do a few more recruit profiles and I fully intend to finish those. Signing Day will bring a couple interesting things. I'll write up some kind of Signing Day extravaganza. That's also when I plan to update the depth chart by class. It's not 100% accurate right now because I last updated it somewhere in the middle of the season, and I figure there's not much point in doing so again until the '09 class is in the books. It'll get an update and a bit of a makeover then.

OK. Brown.....

Virginia Cavaliers (6-5, 1-0) vs. Brown Bears (5-7, 0-0)

Possible starting lineups:

UVA:

PG - Sammy Zeglinski (11.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 4.0 apg)
SG - Calvin Baker (8.6 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.7 apg)
SF - Sylven Landesberg (19.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.6 apg)
PF - Mike Scott (11.0 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 1.0 apg)
C - Assane Sene (3.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 0.7 apg)

Brown:

PG - Adrian Williams (13.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.5 apg)
F - Peter Sullivan (14.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.8 apg)
F - Chris Skrelja (7.3 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 4.0 apg)
F - Matt Mullery (15.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.3 apg)
F - Scott Friske (5.0 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.9 apg)

Brown's a little bit weird, which is what happens with some of these mid-majors trying to stand out from the pack. They have a motion offense, which is a basketball term for "run around a lot and try not to post anyone up." OK, Matt Mullery is allowed to post up, and has earned a 63% FG percentage doing so, and blocks shots besides. This offense otherwise leads to weird stats, like "the leading rebounder is also the leading assist man." And the guard-types - Williams and Sullivan, the only guys who generally take any threes - barely have any assists at all.

Now, they also have three guys doing all the scoring. Hey, that sounds familiar. And it's even more of a pronounced trend at Brown than here. Gee, you think. This should be easy. And their starters play, like, all the minutes. The problem is this - the only guy in that starting lineup smaller than 6'5" is Adrian Williams at 6'1". OK, so Sammy can probably guard him, but that leaves 6'2", 186 Calvin Baker to guard 6'5", 210 Peter Sullivan or 6'6", 220 Chris Skrelja. So Baker is listed as the "possible starter" up there, mainly because he's started all the games, but he's gonna get torched if he has to carry the defensive load, so I'm expecting and hoping that his minutes will for the most part go to Mo Diane, who's 6'5". Diane's been puzzlingly horrendous on offense this year, so he ought to get the start, focus on locking down one of their three scorers defensively, and let Baker play against some reserve. That'd let Baker open up on offense, which would be nice to have.

This isn't like the Hampton game where you can point at all kinds of great matchups in our favor. I'm a little bit worried, and if Brown had anyone beyond their top three guys who could consistently score, I'd be a lot worried. Fortunately they're even more of a three-man show than we are, and it's Brown, so they've got a lot of gumpy white guys with the same skill set.

As a note, the official site rather ominously says "Brown-Virginia Game Still Scheduled For Tuesday" which is the sort of headline that intends to reassure but only manages to induce panic, because you shouldn't have tell people that it's "still" scheduled. The blicky weather headed for Charlottesville tomorrow night threatens to make for a small crowd, assuming the game is played at all, so let's hope the combination of crappy and dangerous weather and crappy yet dangerous opponent on a darksome Tuesday night in the dead of winter in a half-dead arena doesn't make for a really lame stupid game where an Ivy League school gets an ACC hat to hang on the wall.

hurricane watch

No, Miami's not rolling into town yet. But Hanna is.

That little black dot, which may as well be labeled CHARLOTTESVILLE for its accuracy on the map, is actually labeled 2 PM SAT, indicating a collision of time and space and hurricane that would make the Richmond game stupendously soggy. If Hanna follows that path, it wouldn't actually be a hurricane by the time it reaches Virginia - it wouldn't even be a tropical storm according to that chart. But it would be a big rainy mess. Football is a game well suited to playing in blizzards or monsoons, and people will even watch when that happens, but keep an eye on the news for words like "rescheduled."

Speaking of news, you should read Groh's weekly press conference if you like reading questions from media types browbeaten over the years into not asking questions that run the risk of eliciting an answer carrying real information. Two points of interest:

- Denzel Burrell, obviously, has the starting OLB spot all to himself, but someone has to fill the other half of the two-deep, and Groh has been impressed by freshman Cam Johnson.

- Groh also liked Lalich's ability to move about a bit in the pocket and escape the rush.

The depth chart has some interesting changes, by the way. Johnson isn't the only freshman addition to the two-deep: Steve Greer is now backing up Jon Copper on the inside. This I'm pleased to see. I think Greer is going to be good. Real good. I have absolutely zero hard evidence to back this up....it's just the feeling I got during his recruiting, back about 7 months B.T.B. (Before This Blog.) If Greer gets on the field much this year it'll be because of injury, and we don't want that, but I'm looking forward to seeing him compete for a job when it's his turn.

Jared Green also makes an appearance, replacing Cary Koch (?!) behind Kevin Ogletree. No word of a Koch injury, so....? Koch and Green were two of the better players on the field wearing blue on Saturday. Lastly, Ras the Destroyer isn't there either. Mike Parker is listed as the starter in his place, with Minnifield backing up.