2014 hoops preview: players, part 2

It's a bye week in football, so we get to talk basketball all week long.  Don't act like you're not excited.  I'll have a couple quick things on the FSU game at the end here.  Today we'll continue the series on each player.  Tomorrow, the OOC schedule, and on Wednesday or Thursday, another look back at the ACC itself.  Stuff gets real on Friday, but sadly that game isn't televised, so most of us will have to wait til Sunday to get our first look.

#11 - Evan Nolte - Jr. PF

Nolte's an interesting case.  It's very fair to say that other than the freshmen who we haven't seen at all, he has the least predictable role on the team, and even then, it's not like we don't know what Devon Hall or Jack Salt are here for.

I even hesitated as to whether to call him a power forward or a small forward, but based on his usage during the tourney last year, power forward it is.  Nolte basically spent most of the season living up to the preseason expectations of reduced usage and a hazy role; his minutes were cut down to less than half of what they'd been the year before.  Then the tourney rolled around and all of a sudden it was like he'd never left.  Clutch shots against Coastal, posterization of some Memphis dude, and major-league defensive responsibilities against MSU, in which he looked like he'd been doing this power forward thing all his life.

Did we see a true metamorphosis, or just a well-timed hot streak?  Hard to say.  Nolte is one of the classicest tweeners you'll ever see, and what still remains to be seen as he goes into the second half of his career is whether he's on the good or bad side of that description.  Both his defense and offense are part of that equation.  We know he can shoot from deep, and he'll probably never be a back-to-the-basket player, but he's also flashed an occasional midrange game that would come in awfully handy if he develops it.  And on defense, we know he's not all that quick, but if he can defend in the post a little, he can be one of those really frustrating floor stretchers on the other end.  What he can't do is get knocked around on defense and expect to float to the edges on offense.

We'll see if he's hit the weight room.  Against MSU he played harder than we've seen him play in two years, and the results were a really pleasant surprise.  I think the most likely outcome for Nolte is that it takes him all year to really be comfortable as a banger and as an elder statesman on the team, and that his senior year is when he really hits full bloom.  But Tony has a way of coaxing development out of his players, and you shouldn't be surprised to see that timeline accelerated.  Mark these words: if UVA has another really stratospheric season like last year, it'll be in no small part because Nolte became a whole new ballplayer.

#13 - Anthony Gill - Jr. PF

On a points-per-minute basis, Gill was the most efficient scorer on the team last year, and it's no wonder.  He turned out to be just as advertised from his redshirt season, and usually got to go up against second-stringers, which was never a fair matchup.  Better yet, you could see his defense improve as the season wore on, and his minutes saw a parallel uptick.

The obvious question here is how well he handles the near-certain move to the starting lineup.  He'll be asked to guard all those guys that Akil Mitchell guarded so well last year, and score on them too, in a way that wasn't asked of Mitchell as much.  He's not the athlete Mitchell was, but he's quite a bit stronger, and his defensive style will definitely reflect that.  

It's a really simple equation: all that stuff you did last year, do it against better players.  But Gill is entering his fourth season in a college program, and there's little doubt he can handle it.  He could see up to an extra eight minutes a game (though about five is more likely); we may not see a corresponding increase in all his numbers, but they'll still go up, and he should find himself in the conversation for some all-ACC recognition if all goes well.

#15 - Malcolm Brogdon - Jr. SG

Pacism is slowly evaporating from national analyses.  Maybe not so slowly now that Tony's choke-you-to-death style has proven capable of elite results.  Proof: Malcolm Brogdon is 22nd in ESPN's countdown of the top 100 players in the country.  "No weaknesses" is their blunt assessment.

So a lot is expected of him.  With Joe Harris gone, this is Uncle Malcolm's team.  Like Gill, he's entering his fourth year of college ball, and has developed into one of the physically strongest backcourt players in the league, maybe the strongest.  He'll be asked to score from everywhere, with the focus of the defense squarely upon him.  Considering that he made some cameo appearances in KenPom's top ten rating - as in, players in the whole country - there's every reason to expect him to become not just UVA's marquee player, but one of the ACC's as well.  He doesn't wear the right shade of blue, so his path to ACC POY is steeper than for certain others, but first team all-ACC is the expectation.

#21 - Isaiah Wilkins - Fr. PF

Wilkins has a unique challenge among freshmen, in that he has more established players in his way than the rest of them.  Some of them (Stith/Shayok) are in each others' way, others (Hall, Salt) have a defined position with only one other player (albeit a core rotation member) in front.  Wilkins is a power forward, which means that Gill, Atkins, and most likely Nolte are all squarely in front of him in the pecking order.

The good news for him: Jack Salt is a likely redshirt, and Tony's nine-man rotation tends to prefer four backcourt and five frontcourt guys.  Makes sense.  Last year's five-man frontcourt rotation saw three players (Mitchell, Gill, Tobey) get the lions' share of the minutes, and Nolte and Atkins pick up a few each.  Well, now there's 25 of Mitchell's minutes to figure out, and I think you can count on Wilkins getting a few of them.

Probably at first it'll be one of those mid-first-half deals where you toss a guy in where it's not really crunch time and you need to keep your starters fresh.  In his commitment profile I called him a Swiss Army knife of a player; he doesn't blow you away with shooting range or power and strength, but he's athletic, long-armed, and energetic, and should do a nice job on defense as long as he's got the system down enough to be out there.  There's a lot of veteran experience in front of him and he'd have to pull a shocker to start chipping into their playing time significantly this year, but I think there's a little bit of an Akil Mitchell to him, and we know how that turned out.

#32 - London Perrantes - So. PG

The surprise of the season last year, for sure.  It was almost immediately apparent, the effect Perrantes had on the offense when he took it over, and from the beginning it seemed like he belonged - largely because he acted like it.  He didn't even make a single two-point shot in any of the first eight games and he still was making the offense run smoother than it had in a long time.  And even when the offense changed after the Tennessee beatdown, it didn't faze Perrantes or his ability to make it go.

This is Brogdon's team, but with just the one year in the program, Perrantes is assuming a leadership role.  (Though, one does wonder what on earth he did to get suspended for the JMU game.  It's a little reminder that he's still not quite a finished product.)  That leadership should also translate into a little more assertiveness with the ball.  He's obviously a huge piece of the equation, but KenPom's algorithms credit him with the offensive impact of Taylor Barnette because he finishes so few possessions and shoots so little.  Partly that's good - it means limited turnovers - but Perrantes was a .437 three-point shooter last year and ought to fire away a bit more.

He'll also need to improve his game inside the arc; his two-point percentage was an utterly dismal .319 and he wasn't much better at the rim, going just .355.  I don't think he needs to take it to the rack more - the offense doesn't revolve around that - just better.  But the bottom line is, UVA has as veteran a point guard as you'll find in the league - and he's a sophomore.

#33 - Jack Salt - Fr. C

Salt is considered the most likely player to redshirt, which is no surprise at all; he's a center, bigs are always behind the curve as compared to guards, and his New Zealand upbringing means he's had only a smattering of experience against the kind of competition his peers have faced.

So the likely contribution is as a practice body - and an awfully helpful one, because if half the reports of his physicality are true, our bigs will find the games a lot easier than practice.  Reputation has it that Salt seems to think he's playing rugby out there.  I'm OK with giving him a year with the strength and conditioning guys, maybe learn a little bit about what he can get away with.  If by chance he does play this year, I still wouldn't expect much - heavy physicality isn't easily noticed on TV and not that useful in small doses.  But I'm looking forward to the day a couple years down the road when he and Jarred Reuter team up to bludgeon opponents into handing over any and all potential rebounds.

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Guessing at the rotation is probably a stupid thing to do, because the season has a way of really messing up predictions like that, but let's do it anyway.  Minutes are in parentheses after the name.

Starters:

PG - Perrantes (30)

SG - Brogdon (35)

SF - Anderson (25)

PF - Gill (25)

C - Tobey (20)

Reserves:

Hall (13)

Shayok (12)

Atkins (15)

Nolte (15)

Wilkins (5)

That leaves Stith and Salt to redshirt.  It also only adds up to 195 - spread the rest of the minutes around the back of the bench to account for blowouts and such.

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Quick bullets on the FSU game:

-- Sending 260-pound Jack English out to play left tackle against Mario Edwards - it's amazing Greyson Lambert didn't get beaten into a fine powder.  Nothing against English - but he's like the 8th-string tackle if we had an ideal roster, a converted tight end, and all in all the unfortunate poster boy for Mike London's abject failure to build an offensive line.

-- I like the fact that there's a wildcat play for David Watford, and kinda want to smack people who think that because he did a lousy job of throwing the football last year, it means he should never get on the field again in any capacity.  I'm more than OK with finding a role for a guy who has probably earned it with attitude.  But do the coaches take into account important details like, I dunno, down and distance, time on the game clock, or any kind of situational detail at all, when they call a play?  Steve Fairchild has designed a good offense but I swear that if he played chess he would draw up these elaborate twenty-move gambits to capture the opposing bishops, and wouldn't save his king from check if the rules didn't require it.  When he plays golf he probably has really nice clubs and drives off the tee exclusively with a sand wedge.

-- All three of Greyson Lambert's touchdown throws were beautimous, but the second one - to Darius Jennings - was really incredible, NFL stuff.  FSU had them all covered well, except that the DB's backs were turned the whole time.  On the throw to Jennings, Lambert spun it off to Jennings's outside shoulder and put it where Jennings could just go down and get it, and the DB, even had he realized the ball was coming, would've had an impossible time trying to twist and break it up.  Levrone's catch was mostly just awesome work by Levrone; the Jennings one was all Lambert.

-- That said, I defended Lambert on the UNC screen pass interception, but I'm not gonna do it for his one pick this time.  The poster child for a throw that should never have been made.

Prediction review:

- No UVA running back tops 50 yards rushing.  Kevin Parks had 43, the most of any Hoo.  Easy prediction to make.

- Both Lambert and Johns toss an interception.  Johns didn't play, so I can't take credit for this one.

- Lambert has better stats across the board - yardage, completion percentage, yards per attempt.  But I sure can for this.

- Winston throws for over 300 yards.  Nope - Winston was limited to 261 yards and a pretty pedestrian (for him) 7.5 yards per throw.  He outplayed Lambert, but - not by much at all.

- Greene absolutely torches the Hoos, with double-digit receptions.  Greene literally had a career day, his 13 receptions being a career high, and that's saying something for the all-time receptions leader at FSU.

Pretty good day on the predictions here, going 3-for-5.  Stats for the season:

20-for-50 on specifics (40%)
6-3 straight up (W)
4-3-1 ATS (L - the Hoos covered when here I thought they'd get blown out.  Nice job taking advantage of turnovers, but otherwise nothing to speak of on offense.)

game preview: Florida State

Date/Time: Saturday, November 8; 6:30

TV: ESPN

Record against the Noles: 3-14

Last meeting: UVA 14, FSU 13; 11/19/11, Tallahassee

Last weekend: GT 35, UVA 10; FSU 42, UL 31

Line: FSU by 20.5

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT: DE Trent Corney, LB Mark Hall, C Jackson Matteo, CB Demetrious Nicholson, CB Divante Walker, OT Jay Whitmire, WR Miles Gooch
DOUBTFUL: OG Ryan Doull, OT Michael Mooney
QUESTIONABLE: CB Brandon Phelps
PROBABLE: none

Florida State:

OUT: DB Colin Blake, DT Nile Lawrence-Stample, LB Delvin Purifoy, OL Austin Barron
DOUBTFUL: none
QUESTIONABLE: DB Terrell Lyons
PROBABLE: none

Hope you enjoyed it the last time these two teams met.  The Hoos won't meet FSU again til 2020 if this stupid scheduling arrangement holds (long enough that it's entirely possible our coach in that game will have replaced a coach we hire this December), and this game isn't likely to provide any memories you'll want to hang on to.  Watching a field goal attempt sail wide after a glacial-paced replay in which UVA was hoping an FSU pass would be ruled complete - that'll probably have to do.

-- UVA run offense vs. FSU run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 150 carries, 626 yards, 4.2 ypc, 4 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 54 carries, 227 yards, 4.2 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
153.67 yards/game, 4.06 yards/attempt
79th of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

FSU defense:
148.0 yards/game, 3.78 yards/attempt
42nd of 128 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

If there's anything that derails FSU's championship defense, it'll be just that.  The defense isn't awful, but it's pretty mediocre for a championship contender.  That said, they haven't played an easy schedule.  If you adjust for quality of teams, FSU's defense looks better, and this is the better half of it.  UVA's woes at running up the middle - made worse this week by the likely unavailability of Ryan Doull - don't match up well with DT Eddie Goldman.  (Doull also got bumped to second on the depth chart - a reaction to one play, a referendum on his play in general, or was he already doubtful by Monday when the depth chart came out?)

UVA, in fact, is down to eight healthy non-redshirting O-linemen - and really, seven, since one is a converted tight end weighing in at 260.  Seven!  Not only is that a really bad sign for the running game (which managed to be entirely unproductive against one of the worst run defenses in the country last week) it ups the risk of injury even more as it forces actual starters into action on things like kick protection.

It's probably not likely to matter.  If UVA falls behind early, and that seems a likely proposition, the coaches have shown a willingness to abandon the running game nice and early.  So even against an FSU defense that gives up some yards, this is likely to be an extremely unproductive day for all our ballcarriers.

-- UVA pass offense vs. FSU pass defense

Quarterback:
Greyson Lambert: 102/169, 60.4%; 1,055 yards, 5 TDs, 8 INTs; 6.24 ypa

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 31 rec., 176 yards, 0 TDs
Canaan Severin: 30 rec., 385 yards, 3 TDs
Kevin Parks: 24 rec., 139 yards, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
243.9 yards/game, 6.57 yards/attempt
87th of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

FSU defense:
240.6 yards/game, 7.05 yards/attempt
72nd of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Probably the thing that FSU lacks the most is a pass rush.  Only 12 sacks all year long, and four of them from Goldman on the interior.  That's a problem to watch for; if Goldman goes against Cody Wallace, there's nothing to like about that matchup.  Otherwise, though, only one other player has more than one sack - Mario Edwards, whose expected development into one of the conference's elite linemen looks stalled out for now.  UVA hasn't been perfect in pass protection, but not bad, and should at least be able to keep their quarterback on his feet most of the time.

Not sure we can say with any clarity who that quarterback will be, though.  Lambert got pulled again last week, and while I'd guess he'll get the call to go back out there, that's no guarantee.  It's not like Matt Johns was all that hot.  The passing game missed Miles Gooch last week more than I expected they would; Keeon Johnson had multiple drops, and the running backs got used as a crutch more than usual.  And of course, turnovers were murder.

FSU has allowed some fairly average quarterbacks to move the ball on them, but most of them still better than our own passing game.  Still, there's a small chance here.  If FSU had an average offense themselves, I'd say it's plausible UVA could move the ball enough to stay in striking distance.  FSU's defense is more athletic than most, so I'm not optimistic that anything involving a running back will work, other than an unexpected screen pass (that said, we call the screen so often that it's rarely unexpected.)  UVA's passing game is at its best when Severin and Jennings are the ones catching the ball; the Hoos' only hope is to get some big plays from those guys.

-- FSU run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Karlos Williams: 98 carries, 470 yards, 4.6 ypc, 7 TDs
Dalvin Cook: 68 carries, 380 yards, 5.6 ypc, 5 TDs

FSU offense:
131.75 yards/game, 4.20 yards/attempt
74th of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
119.0 yards/game, 3.26 yards/attempt
17th of 128 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

This is a perfect example of why only fools use per-game statistics.  At some point during the game there just might be a graphic calling FSU the 102nd-best running game in the country - as if you win national titles by sucking at running the ball - and they'll neglect to tell you that only four teams run the ball less than FSU does.

This is probably because they know where their weapons are and emphasize them, a novel concept.  They're also working with their backup center after Austin Barron broke his arm a few weeks ago.  Even so, the run game is more than functional.  Karlos Williams is a big guy, very useful in short yardage, and Dalvin Cook and Mario Pender do the change-of-pace thing well.

One thing that isn't a big part of the run game: Jameis Winston.  Though often thought of as a mobile, running quarterback, his mobility is mainly behind the line of scrimmage.  He's cut back on his ballcarrying from last year, and has just a few bonafide runs on the season.

I'm still bullish on the run defense, though, the last bastion of hope on this football team.  It could've looked better last week, but against GT, it has looked much, much worse.  And best of all, you could see visible adjustments in the way they attacked the option.  FSU isn't likely to run wild on Saturday, but then, they're not likely to try.  The Noles will probably just concede this one and use the run only to keep UVA's linebackers honest.

-- FSU pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Jameis Winston: 174/259, 67.2%; 2,279 yards, 16 TDs, 9 INTs; 8.80 ypa

Top receivers:
Rashad Greene: 58 rec., 853 yards, 4 TDs
Nick O'Leary: 33 rec, 364 yards, 2 TDs
Jesus Wilson: 28 rec., 356 yards, 4 TDs

FSU offense:
327.3 yards/game, 8.58 yards/attempt
18th of 128 (national), 3rd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
225.7 yards/game, 6.98 yards/attempt
66th of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

They can do that because ol' crab-legs is still slinging the ball around.  Statistically, you'd call this an obvious sophomore slump, although his numbers are down partly because of a mid-year suspension.  Even so, anyone would take it.

His favorite target by far is senior WR Rashad Greene, FSU's all-time receptions leader.  A pretty big accomplishment when the program has turned out guys like Peter Warrick.  Tight end Nick O'Leary and slot guy Jesus Wilson are the major complementary pieces; Travis Rudolph is enough of a threat on the opposite side to open things up even further for Greene.  It's a fairly deep attack, but Winston to Greene is the main story, and it's just plain hard to stop.

Even harder when your cornerback depth takes a hit.  If Brandon Phelps isn't in the game, things could get ugly fast.  Maurice Canady will probably have Greene as his assignment either way, and Canady has been simply awful the past few weeks.  GT's DeAndre Smelter just toyed with him.  Smelter had a big size advantage that Greene doesn't have, but that matters not at all against the league's top receiver.  So, no, not a lot of confidence here.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 2
UVA pass offense: 3
UVA run defense: 5.5
UVA pass defense: 1.5

Average: 3

-- Outlook

The ratings are probably charitable.  This game is on the road.  And FSU has specialized in dominating the second half.  That should be a lot of fun considering we haven't seen a UVA second-half touchdown in four games.  Second halves have been nothing short of a complete embarrassment.  FSU has trailed at the half in four of their eight games so far and then come roaring back.  This week, they probably won't be trailing, and it's probably fair to say the fourth quarter will be played relatively close, because the third quarter will be a FEMA disaster zone.

-- Predictions

- No UVA running back tops 50 yards rushing.

- Both Lambert and Johns toss an interception.

- Lambert has better stats across the board - yardage, completion percentage, yards per attempt.

- Winston throws for over 300 yards.

- Greene absolutely torches the Hoos, with double-digit receptions.

Final score: FSU 45, UVA 7

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: Miami, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech

-- Clemson 34, Wake Forest 20 - Thu. - Wake becomes the first ACC team to officially miss the postseason.

-- Duke @ Syracuse - 12:30 - And Cuse probably becomes the second.

-- Georgia Tech @ NC State - 12:30 - Both Duke and GT are on the road against crappy Atlantic opponents, needing a win to keep pace in the Coastal.

-- Louisville @ Boston College - 7:15 - Basically the battle for third place in the Atlantic, for what that's worth.

worst-case scenario

Last week I wrote about best-case and worst-case scenarios for the season, albeit summarily.  Good thing, too, because if I'd wasted too many words talking about worst-case, I'd have just been reminded how much more elegantly it can be said by moving pictures.  This weekend was designed purely to make UVA fans go insane.

Play well enough to win, but lose?  Check.  Fire up the quarterback shitstorm all the way to 11?  Check.  Throw in one hair-pulling mistake, and the only thing missing is a season-ending injury to some really important player.  But don't give anyone any ideas.  Henry Coley's knees thank you in advance.

(As a substitute, we can just go ahead and go 5-7 this season now, so that the schedule-for-success crowd is given a whole free offseason to never shut up.  That should complete my trip to the nuthouse.)

The real way to see this game, though, is however you damn well please.  If you're the Kool-Aid type, the defense was fantastic against a hyped-up quarterback and the quarterbacks at least provided a reason to believe someone will be worth a damn; plus, our offense outscored UCLA's.  If you're more the Eeyore persuasion, we beat a pretty damn good team last year to start the season and then watched every other coach actually coach the season while our staff bumbled around and forgot to make any adjustments; plus, the game was more a reason to crash-sell all your UCLA stock than to start buying UVA's.  You wouldn't be the only one thinking that.

I'm pretty confident in saying UVA will get its first win next week.  Beyond that, we learned nothing whatsoever about this team, mainly because most every unit performed about as expected.  The D-line was a terror and the linebackers made hell of plays.  The O-line was a steaming pile of.... yeah.  The receivers looked good sometimes and lousy sometimes.  About the only unexpected thing was the QBs, which of course answered nothing either.

So, check back, I guess, in two weeks, after the game I'm dubbing The World's Most Artificial Rivalry.  We'll have to wait that long to find out who the quarterback really is.  If we still don't know, watch out, because the season is then likely to be one full-bore controversy.

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-- I could probably devote a full post and a half to what happened under center the other day, but let's see if I can make this compact enough to read.  Having read about the game before I saw it (I was traveling, and my limit for keeping away from the score before I can get to my Tivo is overnight) I wasn't surprised to see Matt Johns come in.  I was surprised that Greyson Lambert didn't suck.  I mean, that's why you'd pull a quarterback, right?  Here's my theory, actually: London did this to fire up the offense, not because of anything in particular that he saw or didn't see out of Lambert, and the move having worked beyond his wildest dreams, he was left with no choice but to keep this going.

I mean, only one of those three UCLA touchdowns can even remotely be pinned on Lambert (although the third one is 100% his.)  Lambert played just fine.  I wish the playcalling would've asked more of him, but he was fine.

The reason this is now a problem is that Johns was way more than "fine."  Johns was actually good.  Really good, sometimes.  I mean, those touchdown throws.  Give a ton of credit to Andre Levrone and Darius Jennings for fine catches in tough coverage, but those throws were professional throws.  Johns just plain looked comfortable - more so than Lambert, even with the O-line failing to protect either one of them.  The one thing that makes this not really a fair fight is the playcalling, which got a lot gutsier with Johns in the game, and I don't just mean deeper throws.  Johns also rolled out of the pocket at least once, which Lambert was not asked to do.

I fully expect to see both of them against Richmond.  There's no way the coaches can make a proper decision now.  Johns clearly outplayed Lambert; in fact, Johns outplayed UCLA's Brett Hundley (though Hundley was let down by his receivers quite a bit.) and there's no way to toss that aside and hand Lambert the ball without a qualm now.  But there's no way to throw away all of spring and fall camp without a qualm either.  It's the last thing I ever wanted to see, but we're just gonna have to fire up the competition again.  And they'll probably both play very well against Richmond, because Richmond.

-- It's amazing how one team can have such a terror for a defensive line and such a flimsy offensive line.  The only decent running plays came on misdirections and from Kevin Parks's YAC-generating thunder thighs.  But the D-line - wowz.  David Dean was double-teamed almost the whole game, I think, and Hundley was flustered not just because he was pressured, but because he could never be too sure where the pressure would come from.  Some of that is the mad blitzer in the coaches' box, but the line didn't really need the help to make a collapsy mess of Hundley's pocket.

-- I know player safety is important and all but a 15-yard penalty for putting your helmet back on and continuing to play is a truly fart-brained rule.

-- No major new wrinkles in the offense, which isn't surprising when breaking in a new quarterback, but I did like the changing tempo.  Maybe that counts as a major wrinkle.  I think that'll be a plus going forward, though; there's no need to try to be Oregon, and race race race around the field, but a little unpredictability helps.

-- I'm not actually kidding.  Please solve this quarterback thing soon.

weekend review

Ah, Selection Sunday.  It's always nice to make an appearance on the show.  The lacrosse one is double fun because I get to find out if I'm any good at making predictions.  This year, I think I did damn well.  Got all 18 teams, 7 of the 8 seeds, the top four exactly right in order as well as #6 and #8, and the only real monkey wrench in the works was Denver's selection as a seeded team instead of the highest non-seed - that threw off some of the other non-seeded picks as well.

All that would be true if Harvard had actually beaten Penn.  The real bracket is eerily similar to the Harvard-beats-Penn prediction I made; too bad Harvard lost and was still selected as an at-large, defying the Hofstra call.  So that ends the streak I was on of perfect at-large selections.  What it means is that a tweak that I made to my ranking system this season, worked really well for the top end of the list but did a poor job picking the last at-large; the old system would've never put Loyola or Penn anywhere near the top four seeds, but would've chosen Harvard without a second glance.  Just another thing to keep in mind for next year.

As for UVA's draw (Hopkins), am I allowed to complain, at the same time, that we should be playing a worse team with a better resume?  No?  Contradictory?  OK then.  Hop is a team that (and I thought rightly so) was widely considered in but at the very low end of the bubble.  They're light on big-time wins, with only Maryland and I guess Albany on their resume as notable victories.  But they're obviously going to be a very tough out.  And if we get past the Jays, Duke is obviously no picnic at all.  Still, a home game is not something you can expect every year when you lose five games.

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Speaking of draws, there's also the ACC/B1G Challenge draw to speak of, and like about 98% of UVA fans, I ain't happy.  It's not that I have an aversion to ever playing Maryland again, though I think it's totally understandable if you do.  It's that the ACC champs deserved a better draw than what's likely to be about the 10th-best Big Ten team.  Under no other circumstances would that have ever happened, but you just know the lazy bastards in charge of this stuff penciled in this game before the ink was even dry on Maryland's "we're going Midwest" press release.  So their reward for doing so is a home game against the ACC champs.  And, go ahead and write this one down and hold me to it next year: Maryland will make a return trip to Charlottesville in 2015 for the Challenge.

Some called the game "RPI-destroying" which isn't quite accurate because even if Maryland settles into the Big Ten's second division, they'll still be around .500 on the whole and they'll have the Big Ten as their OOWP.  It's more that we lose the chance to have the RPI bonus that a Wisconsin or a Michigan would've provided.  ESPN and the ACC decided to screw the Hoos in favor of a cheap marketing stunt, and relegated us to a game of regional instead of national interest.  I hope we blast them by 45 and the Louisville-Ohio State game is a 39-32 mockery of basketball.

**********************************************

There's a football depth chart, and it's almost entirely devoid of surprises.  The big news is at quarterback, where we got confirmation of what we'd long suspected: Greyson Lambert is the official starter.  There should be a benefit here, of going through the summer and the fall being able to prepare as the top dog instead of worrying about a competition.  Otherwise I think the only really newsworthy item is the appearance of Miles Gooch above both Darius Jennings and Dominique Terrell at one of the WR positions.  I don't think it signals the end of their useful careers at UVA, though; there's now a ton of size all over the place at WR but Jennings and Terrell are still faster than most of those guys and therefore have that to set them apart.

the stat sheet says we won

And the scoreboard says we lost.

We will jump right into the bullet points because there's no need to construct a narrative here.  376 yards of passing and a +5 non-desperation-time turnover margin, and a loss, says all that needs to be said.  It takes a pretty awful team to lose under those circumstances.  So.  Bullet points.

-- It was mentioned during the game that David Watford set new UVA records for completions and attempts.  The interesting part was that he broke the completions record before the attempts record.  The other interesting part was that both previous records were set by Matt Schaub, in another loss to Georgia Tech some 11 years ago.

-- I think Steve Fairchild called some occasionally stupid plays (you're trying to pick up a critical fourth down and you call for a pass to Billy Skrobacz?  Not to demean Skrobacz, but he's a fullback, and therefore not particularly likely to be open unless the defense fails to account for him entirely.  There wasn't another playmaker somewhere on the roster?)  But overall Fairchild's scheme is starting to work nicely.  Some "too horizontal" criticisms should be laid to rest.  Clearly, if Fairchild has the WRs to stretch the field, he'll use them, as evidenced by Tim Smith's excellent day.  I consider 13 yards per catch the dividing line between short-field possession receivers and long-field deep threats; Smith finally averaged over 15, and given the day from him and Darius Jennings, plus a couple of fine catches by Canaan Severin, I gotta give the receivers an A this week.

-- That said, before checking the box score I would have sworn that Watford's average yards per throw was much higher than 6.1.  Seemed like there were plenty of downfield throws, and Watford completed over 70%.  But nope.  Barely six yards per throw again.  So not all the concerns are laid to rest.  But Watford laid in a few really nice throws, and if he can bring on the consistency in that department he'll change the dynamic quite a bit.

-- OK, the big issue: second-quarter clock management.  The refs pretty ridiculously let five seconds run off the clock before deigning to acknowledge Mike London's timeout.  But if you're going to call a run play, it doesn't really matter; neither six nor eleven seconds are enough time to run the ball and then get the field goal unit on.  Nor is eleven seconds even enough time to run the ball and then spike it, given the time needed to untangle the pile.

The run play is mildly defensible since, you know, give the ball to your best player.  Kevin Parks had already had a touchdown that entirely consisted of yards after contact.  But on the other hand, you're putting the game in the hands of your weakest unit (the O-line) and you know this shit didn't work against Maryland so why would it now?

-- I would've also liked to see an onside kick after the touchdown and 2PC that made it 28-25, but I can see the argument for not doing so.  Just get a three-and-out and you're fine.

-- Watford might've had an even better day throwing the ball, but Eric Smith had his worst day at right tackle.  Jeremiah Attaochu abused him all day long.  I haven't noticed Smith a ton, and for a freshman RT, that's a general plus, but Saturday was not his day.

-- I really wish the defensive game plan against the option focused on forcing the keep rather than forcing the pitch.  Help is closer when the QB keeps and the GT run game never busts big plays except on the pitch.  (Or the middle handoff.)  Vad Lee and Justin Thomas combined for seven yards on eight carries.

-- I got in from seeing the Lions beat the Cowboys in way-awesome fashion (and now I get to make fun of people who left the game early), and other celebratory activities, and then had to write this depressing stuff.  What a hobby.  This is where we are, man; Saturdays suck (unless Michigan wins, then they halfway suck) and I turn to the Lions to make the weekend better.  The Lions.  That is a bad Saturday state of affairs.

Prediction review:

-- The UVA running game fails to top 125 yards.  Yup.  Even in taking out -17 from sacks and such, the running game didn't exactly rack up yards.  Part of this was game plan; London claimed that the plan called for tilting the balance toward the pass because they felt GT had a good run defense but a sucky pass defense, and there ended up being more than twice as many called passes as runs.  Part of that was also due to playing from behind, but still.

-- David Watford again tops 6 yards a pass.  Yeah, I mean, barely, but he did.  And like I said - I would've sworn he was closer to eight just from watching.  I was surprised to see the final number so low.

-- Both David Sims and Zach Laskey have 100+ yard rushing days.  They did, and I'm especially proud of myself for this one.  This one's going out on a limb since, as pointed out in the comments, they platoon.  But yeah, no middle at all without Brent Urban, who can't get back soon enough.

-- No GT receiver has a catch of 30 yards or more, unless it's mostly YAC.  Dammit.  An elusive perfect day ruined by one lousy wheel route.  Robert Godhigh's 38-yard catch, despite him being a running back and all, spent too much time in the air for me to count this one.

Moving to 19-for-40 on the season gets me close to 50%, a number I haven't beaten since I started doing this.  Ten points was exactly the spread, so I have to stick at 4-3-1 ATS but move to 5-3 straight up in my overall predictions.  Fish in a barrel, man.

game preview: Georgia Tech

Date/Time: Saturday, October 26; 12:30

TV: ACC Net., ESPN3

Record against the Jackets: 17-17-1

Last meeting: GT 56. UVA 20; 9/15/12, Atlanta

Last weekend: Duke 35, UVA 22; GT 56, Cuse 0

Line: GT by 10

Injury reports:

Virginia:

OUT - OL George Adeosun, CB Maurice Canady, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, WR E.J. Scott, DT Brent Urban, S Wil Wahee

DOUBTFUL - WR Kyle Dockins

QUESTIONABLE - G Conner Davis, K Ian Frye, TE Jake McGee

PROBABLE - LB Daquan Romero

Georgia Tech:

OUT - WR Anthony Autry, OL Morgan Bailey, OL Ray Beno, C Freddie Burden, S Jamal Golden, DT Shawn Green, LB Anthony Harrell, OL Errin Joe

DOUBTFUL - None

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - None

Yeah, Paul Johnson, I bet you have nobody banged up in the slightest aside from the guys who'll miss the game.  Not a single tweaked ankle, twinged shoulder, or sore knee.  Somebody is not conforming to the intent of the ACC injury report.  Meantime, that is the worst UVA injury report I've ever seen.

It all just makes a tough game tougher.  Georgia Tech is always a difficult matchup if your defense isn't well-prepared, and last week is proof they can demolish lousy teams - as if last year's game in Atlanta wasn't proof enough.  The road doesn't get any easier after last week, and with the losses piling up it's fair to wonder if this team will find another win all season.

-- UVA run offense vs. GT run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 131 carries, 560 yards, 4.3 ypc, 8 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 32 carries, 233 yards, 7.3 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
176.14 yards/game, 4.03 yards/attempt
82nd of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

GT offense:
124.00 yards/game, 3.98 yards/attempt
57th of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

Conner Davis's presence on the injury report is a disturbing sign for the offense; it was his absence in the first place that triggered a lot of the offensive line troubles.  Cody Wallace is listed as Davis's backup with Eric Tetlow behind Jay Whitmire on the other side, but keep an eye on this.  Wallace was pulled for Tetlow against Pitt, and Tetlow could get the call.  The offense would probably run better if so.

Georgia Tech's defense has been somewhat like a chameleon, matching their play to the level of opposition.  If the opponent is good, they've gashed the Jackets.  If the opponent is lousy, they get shut down.  Duke Johnson and Miami absolutely destroyed them; on the other hand, Virginia Tech's running game didn't exist except for what Logan Thomas did.  Which wasn't much.

The Jackets just don't get into the backfield much.  Nose tackle Adam Gotsis is a nasty customer in this regard with six run-game TFLs this season, but otherwise nobody else has very many, and GT is 110th in the country in TFL.  That said, a nasty defensive tackle was all it took for Pitt to destroy UVA's offense, and three-tech tackle Euclid Cummings is good enough that over-doubling Gotsis will probably cost the Hoos.

GT's linebackers can be tough too; there is no particular holy terror but no weak link either, with all three starters - Brandon Watts, Jabari Hunt-Days, and Quayshawn Nealy - all in the team's top four in tackles.

If Davis does play, he'll probably be limited, so I can't express a lot of hope for the line either way.  UVA isn't going to find itself totally shut down, but shouldn't expect to move the ball as easily as they did in the first half against Duke, either.  The best chance: Watford.  GT has shown a tendency to allow yards by a running quarterback, as both Logan Thomas and BYU's Taysom Hill were able to move the ball this way.  Watford doesn't keep much on the read option, though.  I was brimming with optimism for the run game last week against Duke; their failure to come through combined with injury troubles at guard and another tough DT gives me much less faith, and I can't figure the run game for more than 125 yards or so.

-- UVA pass offense vs. GT pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 148/253, 58.5%; 1,339 yards, 5 TDs, 8 INTs; 5.29 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 31 rec., 265 yards, 2 TDs
Kevin Parks: 25 rec., 270 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
197.6 yards/game, 5.1 yards/attempt
122nd of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

GT defense:
203.7 yards/game, 7.3 yards/attempt
75th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Bad news, everyone.  We're no longer last in the country in passing!  Wonder if it'll matter this week; we've known for a couple weeks now that Jake McGee is banged up even though he didn't show up on the injury report against Duke.  The Maryland game made it clear enough.  Now listed as questionable, McGee's status is firmly up in the air.  I would guess he plays, but we'll see.  No McGee would mean a big, big role for Zach Swanson, and, no disrespect to Swanson, but a pretty big detriment to the passing game.

It won't have much effect on the stat sheet, but Kyle Dockins looks very likely to miss the game given his injury report status.  Dockins isn't targeted much, but his absence means the coaches will have to dig deeper into the underperforming-veterans well and give more playing time to Tim Smith or Darius Jennings.  Any more drops by Jennings and he's going to end up the fanbase's least favorite player; his chronic case of stone hands this season has been one of the year's most frustrating developments.

Defensively, Tech brings a solid pass rush from Adam Gotsis and defensive end Jeremiah Attaochu, though Attaochu's production on the year is decidedly down from what it was.  They present a tough matchup in that their linebackers, Quayshawn Nealy in particular, are good pass defenders.  Nealy plays the weak side, though, so won't likely be matched up with McGee much.  Brandon Watts on the strong side is less skilled in pass defense, so McGee (or Swanson) should be able to find room.  Cornerback Louis Young is the top player in the secondary, and given our receivers' inability to get open, should be a blanket all day.

I think it's fair to upgrade our assessment of our passing game a tick - but only a tick, as Watford is still far too inconsistent and the receivers haven't shown any indication of upgrading their game.  If they didn't do it against Duke, I have no idea when they ever will.  GT isn't overall a great pass-defense team - the rush is OK, and Young is the only playmaker among the starters in the secondary, though backup safety Chris Milton also has two picks.  Logan Thomas, he of the scattershot arm, had a really nice day passing against the Jackets.  Tech might present some matchup problems with linebackers who can defend the pass (Nealy may be a problem in trying to get the ball to Kevin Parks) and a pass-rushing DT, but Watford should continue to nudge his trend upwards, even if only slightly.

-- GT run offense against UVA run defense

Top backs:
David Sims: 84 carries, 409 yards, 4.9 ypc, 6 TDs
Zach Laskey: 45 carries, 261 yards, 5.8 ypc, 4 TDs

GT offense:
304.43 yards/game, 5.27 yards/attempt
19th of 125 (national), 3rd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
151.71 yards/game, 3.98 yards/attempt
56th of 125 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Each week I've sort of taken to naming which of the four sections of the game should provide the decisive factor.  This week it's here, because against GT it's always here.  You know the drill about what they do.

Unfortunately, defending it is going to be a son of a bitch this week.  We don't have our best DT, so we'll have a tough time holding the middle against the fullback dive part of the option.  We're short on options at DE because our run-stopping DE is playing DT (and is a little overmatched there due to size.)  Two very solid run-stopping tacklers at CB are out.  We do have some high-quality linebackers whose strengths just happen to include play diagnosis - but only two.

Adding to the complication is what Jon Tenuta will do.  Remember, Tenuta, despite his past tenure at GT, didn't coach there under the current regime, and so doesn't have any special insight.  If I had a time machine I'd go back and watch old NC State-GT games (despite the crossover, Tenuta did coach against the Jackets twice while at NC State) to see what his philosophy was.  It didn't work out especially well; Tenuta's defense gave up 28 and 35 points, while the Pack split the crossover series in 2010 and 2011.

If he decides to be Mr. Aggressive as usual, that could pay wicked dividends at times and get him burned super-crispy at others.  Blitzing Coley up the middle could help dissuade fullback dives, and sending an OLB or a CB from one side could either flood the area with defenders (good) or leave huge running lanes (bad.)  Tech isn't real big on throwing over the middle, so having Anthony Harris filling the middle while Coley finds a gap to get through could be a helpful strategy, especially since the depth at DT is hurting.

Tenuta's going to have to wizard his way through this one, though, and ultimately, GT has a major upper hand here.  With so many key personnel out, UVA will be depending on a patchwork of less-experienced players.  I think GT will have a ton of success up the middle.  I fully expect to get gashed there.  If the Hoos can force Vad Lee to keep - he's only averaging three yards a carry - they'll be in better shape, but I don't think they can do that consistently.

-- GT pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Vad Lee: 44/99, 44.4%; 846 yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs; 8.55 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
DeAndre Smelter: 14 rec., 211 yards, 2 TDs
Robert Godhigh: 10 rec., 188 yards, 2 TDs

GT offense:
125.6 yards/game, 7.9 yards/attempt
42nd of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
225.9 yards/game, 6.4 yards/attempt
33rd of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

You have to give Paul Johnson this: He's incredibly consistent in his pass-offense playcalling.  In his first four years as GT coach, his teams attempted 165, 168, 168, and 167 passes.  Last year they went all pass-wacky with 194, but this season, Vad Lee is on pace for 170 attempts.  Consistency.

I bring up this factoid just because there's very little to talk about in defending GT's passing game.  All it takes is a solid cornerback and some discipline at free safety.  (That would be really cool if we had Demetrious Nicholson, or even Maurice Canady.)  If you have those two things, GT will not be able to throw the ball against you, because they like to wait until you're overplaying the run.

Then again, we might be forced to overplay the run if the assigned defenders can't stop it.  Plus, this season, GT is actually spreading the ball between WRs a little more than they used to, when in the past they would have one big dude making all the plays and the second WR would just be a very fast, very widely split offensive tackle.  And then some occasional throws to the RBs.  This year, DeAndre Smelter has 14 catches, but Darren Waller has 10.  Both are very, very tall in the usual Paul Johnson mold; Smelter is 6'3" and Waller 6'5".  Ordinarily this would not be a bad game to break in Tim Harris in his first game as a starter, but Harris may be tested a few times, particularly given his inexperience.

Lee, however, has not been the more-accurate passer he was advertised to be, connecting on only 44% of his passes.  And UVA has, with just a few ugly exceptions, defended the pass rather well.  If GT beats us, it won't be through the air.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 3.5
UVA pass offense: 4
UVA run defense: 1.5
UVA pass defense: 6

Average: 3.75

That said, it'd really be fairer if I half-weighted the pass defense and double-weighted the run defense.

-- Outlook

Here's the recipe for beating Georgia Tech's offense.  You need:

-- a really good defensive tackle that can command a double team and even slash into the backfield, to discourage the fullback dive part of the option
-- defensive ends that are both disciplined and able to hold the edge against a blocker
-- a cornerback that sticks like glue
-- a free safety you trust implicitly
-- linebackers who can fill gaps ASAP and move side-to-side with ease.

We have one out of five.  We would have four out of five if not for injuries.  This is not a good omen.

-- Prediction summary

-- The UVA running game fails to top 125 yards.

-- David Watford again tops 6 yards a pass.  Progress.  Baby steps.

-- Both David Sims and Zach Laskey have 100+ yard rushing days.

-- No GT receiver has a catch of 30 yards or more, unless it's mostly YAC.  (This represents success in one realm of the matchup, at least.)

Final score: GT 35, UVA 17

-- Rest of the ACC

Wake Forest @ Miami - 12:00 - A likely rout, but then, that's what I thought Maryland would do to the Deacs last week.

Pittsburgh @ Navy - 1:00 - I labeled Pitt the worst team in the Coastal and they're two wins from eligibility; probably one win after this week.

NC State @ Florida State - 3:30 - The Pack have occasionally had the magic touch against FSU, but not this year.

Clemson @ Maryland - 3:30 - The Terps will have other chances at bowl eligibility, but it won't be this week, and being rolled for the second week in a row - not to mention losing their whole receiving corps to injury - could send them into a death spiral.

Boston College @ North Carolina - 3:30 - I picked BC to go to a bowl this year when nobody else would, and even I didn't figure they'd be the only team in this matchup with a conference win.

Duke @ Virginia Tech - 3:30 - Semi-unstoppable force meets immovable object when Duke has the ball.  Wet noodle meets half-eaten jelly roll otherwise.

Bye: Syracuse, busy licking their GT-induced wounds.

game preview: Maryland

Date/Time: Saturday, October 13; 3:30

TV: ESPNUVA

Record against the Terps: 32-43-2

Last meeting: Md. 27, UVA 20; 10/13/12, Charlottesville

Last weekend: BSU 48, UVA 27; FSU 63, Md 0

Line: Maryland by 7

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT - OL George Adeosun, PK Ian Frye, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, OT Sadiq Olanrewaju, S Wil Wahee

DOUBTFUL - None

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - TE Zach Swanson

Maryland:

OUT - DB Milan Collins, OL JaJuan Dulaney, CB Dexter McDougle, DL Mike Minter, DL Ty Tucker, WR Tyrek Cheeseboro, RB Tyler Cierski, K Adam Greene, DB Jeremiah Johnson, OL Nick Klemm, LB Matt Robinson

DOUBTFUL - QB C.J. Brown

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - WR Daniel Adams, OL Silvio Altamirano, LB Cole Farrand, WR Nigel King, TE Dave Stinebaugh, DL Zeke Riser

I'm a little torn, but strongly leaning toward the idea that we should close down relations forever with Maryland once their time in the ACC is done.  Depends on the sport, really; lacrosse, definitely.  Basketball, probably, and replace them with Georgetown.  Football, I suppose, is a little less clear, but then, the schedule's tied up for a good long time anyway.  So this'll be our last shot for the foreseeable future at what was a very fun rivalry when Ralph Friedgen would flap his fat gums and we would beat his teams in response.

-- UVA run offense vs. Md. run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 88 carries, 398 yards, 4.5 ypc, 5 TDs
Daniel Hamm: 23 carries, 141 yards, 6.1 ypc, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
178.20 yards/game, 4.09 yards/attempt
80th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Md. defense:
115.40 yards/game, 3.21 yards/attempt
25th of 125 (national), 3rd of 14 (ACC)

It seems like a safe but tentative bet so far that in the season-long who's-after-Parks watch, Khalek Shepherd is slowly but surely emerging as the primary backup.  Neither he nor Taquan Mizzell show up on the injury report this week, so we finally have the health we need to see the decision through.

The other name not on the injury report: Conner Davis.  Mike London has hinted this means another change in the order of battle for the offensive line; despite what the depth chart says, it appears Davis will take Luke Bowanko's left guard spot and move Bowanko back to center.  Bowanko is still a better guard than center, but I guess the real idea is that Davis is a better guard than Ross Burbank or Jackson Matteo are centers.  Last week's lineup shuffle looked good against a bad run defense; Maryland presents a tougher challenge.

Mitigating that will be Maryland's loss of disruptive OLB Matt Robinson.  Robinson is one of the defense's leading players and a member of one of the best linebacking corps in the league.  Inside backers Cole Farrand and L.A. Goree ought to be able to cover up for him to an extent, but Maryland loses something on the edge without Robinson.  Marcus Whitfield, on the other side of the Terps' 3-4, is more of a pass rusher.  Of course, last time I said there might be a weakness on the edge, attack the edge, Steve Fairchild kept attacking the middle.  So we'll see.

The 3-4 is just another challenge for our O-line, too, which hasn't been allowed to see many conventional defenses this year.  Maryland's line has been solid, and nose tackle Darius Kilgo is a load, so the O-line is simply going to be tested all day, and the threat will be more versatile than just watching Aaron Donald tear into the backfield all day.

It may be that Davis's return is another small boost to the line.  Changing from Wallace and Whitmire to Whitmire and Smith certainly was one, and you have to like getting a starter back.  But one good day against Ball State doesn't change my mind about the offense.  Even without Matt Robinson, Maryland is well-equipped to slow down and even stop the UVA run game.  Then you add in the fact that the read-option is designed against a 4-3 defense, and I definitely don't see strong results in this area of the game.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Md. pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 101/171, 59.1%; 813 yards, 3 TDs, 7 INTs; 4.75 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 19 rec., 119 yards, 1 TD
Darius Jennings: 14 rec., 107 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
171.4 yards/game, 4.6 yards/attempt
125th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Md. defense:
218.4 yards/game, 6.5 yards/attempt
43rd of 125 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

Another injury has sapped quite a bit of the effectiveness out of the Maryland pass defense: the loss of Dexter McDougle for the season.  The main consequence of that was the loss of most of their big-play capability; McDougle had three picks in as many games.  Isaac Goins is a solid cornerback, but McDougle's replacement, freshman William Likely, is 5'7", and, you know, a freshman.

The Maryland pass rush can be nasty.  The aforementioned Marcus Whitfield has 5.5 sacks, and his backup, Yannik Cudjoe-Virgil, has three.  Maryland's nose tackle position, between Darius Kilgo and Andre Monroe, has combined for 5.5 sacks, and the team total is 18, which ties them for 5th in the country.

So the O-line is in for another test.  Given the pass rush the Terps can generate from the middle of the line, having Bowanko at center is a little bit of a relief.  The playing-time intention at wide receiver, though, is still a mystery, even with the "ors" taken off the depth chart.  I guess there's just a skepticism factor that the starters are suddenly Kyle Dockins, Keeon Johnson, and Miles Gooch.  Johnson I believe given the role he played against Ball State, and that lineup of guys could provide an advantage given the lack of size Maryland has at corner.  Finding it hard to believe they're fully relegating guys like Tim Smith and Darius Jennings to the bench, though.

I do think our receivers provide an advantage over the Maryland defensive backfield, where the Terps are middling-decent but did present no threat whatsoever to the FSU passing game.  (By contrast, FSU's run game was successful but not spectacularly so.)  However, Watford's still learning, and slowly.  I'm gonna have to see something before I give the whole unit the benefit of the doubt.  At some point Watford's gonna have a great game and prove me wrong, but I don't plan on saying "this weekend is it" all year til I get it right.

-- Md. run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Brandon Ross: 68 carries, 331 yards, 4.8 ypc, 2 TDs
Albert Reid: 29 carries, 120 yards, 4.1 ypc, 1 TD

Md. offense:
188.0 yards/game, 4.65 yards/attempt
53rd of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
149.2 yards/game, 3.87 yards/attempt
50th of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

Like the offense in reverse, I'm gonna have to see more than one bad game out of the defense (Oregon doesn't count) before I decide it sucks.  I don't think that'll be in this phase of the game, at least.  The likely loss of C.J. Brown makes the Maryland run attack fairly one-dimensional.  Decent opponents have shut down Brandon Ross's backup, Albert Reid, which by subtraction leaves Ross as the only real rushing threat.  (Other backup Jacquille Veii, with almost as many carries as Reid, has been a garbage-timer so far.)

Ross can move the ball, but is no threat to break one open, and is a little bit stat-padded by a big game against ODU.  Florida International shut him down and FSU made him disappear entirely; he's just not a game-breaker, and Maryland's patchily young offensive line is still learning its way around consistent run-blocking.

So this is a very important phase of the game for UVA.  The Maryland pass offense can be dangerous, and UVA simply must force them to have to rely solely on it to move the ball.  If the run game can be stifled with just the regular up-front personnel, maybe even with six in the box, it'll make this game so much easier.  Long day otherwise.

-- Md. pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
C.J. Brown: 72/113, 63.7%; 1,125 yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT; 9.96 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Deon Long: 24 rec., 348 yards, 1 TD
Stefon Diggs: 20 rec., 424 yards, 3 TDs

Md. offense:
257.6 yards/game, 9.3 yards/attempt
10th of 125 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
191.4 yards/game, 5.6 yards/attempt
10th of 125 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

It's great to have such nice numbers on our side, even with such nice ones on the Maryland side too, but here's where the injury bug takes a chunk out of our defense, with Demetrious Nicholson out for the game.  This is not the time for that, as UVA goes up against a dynamic duo at receiver for the third time in a row, and probably the best of the three in Stefon Diggs and Deon Long.

Diggs is also dealing with a malady of his own, which could slow him down and even up the matchup; Randy Edsall has been referring to him as not 100% and he hasn't been taking return duties.  He's been limited the past two weeks to two catches each.  Long has stepped forward somewhat.  Still, you have to game plan for him.  You're not going to worry about Levern Jacobs or Malcolm Culmer.  You might watch Nigel King, who stands 6'3" and for that reason alone can be a tough cover, but Diggs and Long are what make the Maryland offense move.

The above assumes C.J. Brown can play, but he's listed as doubtful - so he probably won't.  We're in much better shape if he doesn't.  Backup Caleb Rowe is not incapable but not close to the player Brown is, either.  The combination of losing Brown and having Diggs limited could be a major crippling factor for the Maryland offense, and without Nicholson we'll take all the help we can get.

-- Favorability ratings:

Run offense: 3
Pass offense: 3.5
Run defense: 7.5
Pass defense: 3 if Brown plays and Diggs is playable, and 6.5 otherwise

Average: 4.25 or 5.125

-- Outlook

You can see the effect on the game of Brown's injury.  Take him out of there and I can see UVA having the slimmest of advantages.  Put him in and the game swings Maryland's way.  Maryland's run game is much more dangerous with Brown (Rowe is not a runner) and Brown is easily the better passer too.   UVA must, must must must shut down the run game to the greatest extent possible, and do so nice and early, so that they'll be able to focus on stopping the pass.  If they can do that, that's their chance.  Moving the ball will be tough and opportunities to do so limited, so there'll be plenty of pressure on the defense to keep the game within striking distance.

-- Prediction summary

-- Watford throws neither a pick nor a touchdown.

-- Neither run game musters more than three yards per attempt.

-- Keeon Johnson leads UVA wide receivers in receptions.

-- Stefon Diggs has had two catches each of the past two games; he has more here.

Final score: Md. 17, UVA 13

-- Rest of the ACC

Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech - 12:00 - Tech will be remembering the embarrassing beatdown they received from the Panthers last year.

Duke vs. Navy - 12:30 - Duke bowl eligibility hopes probably demand this win.

Syracuse @ NC State - 3:30 - As do the bowl hopes of both these teams, slim as they are.

Boston College @ Clemson - 3:30 - Clemson's tuneup before the big game next week.

Georgia Tech @ Brigham Young - 7:00 - Should be a useful game in learning how we stand.

Byes: Miami, Florida State, Wake Forest, UNC

weekend review

Le sigh.  It wasn't a great weekend, but we're obligated to review it anyway.  Someone on one of the boards said that the collective IQ of the fanbase is directly proportional to the win-loss record, which, ain't it the truth, man.  One thing that will really blow everyone's mind is if London is fired after next year (which means, probably, that we didn't go bowling now or then) and an objective review of the Al Groh and Mike London eras proves Groh the superior coach.  If IQs could be negative, you'd see it then.

We'll start with the recruiting board, I suppose.  2014 recruiting has ground to a halt, but not at other schools, which means targets keep slowly coming off the board.  The updates:

-- Removed WR Juwann Winfree (Maryland) from yellow.

-- Removed DT Ricky Walker (VT) from red.

So yeah, these are not happy times in the recruiting world, although I do question London's commitment to recruiting either of those players.  Walker never actually got offered; if London wanted to, he could've simply sent a letter, as written offers are kosher by now.

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Let's go around the ACC and see what kind of fun other people were having while we were watching our fourth-year coach get mashed by a MAC team at home.

-- Miami knocked off GT.  Now, they gotta play FSU from the Atlantic while VT doesn't have to play anyone of consequence, so they don't have a lot of margin for error.  But it sets them up to achieve, after nine seasons of waiting, what the ACC dreamed of all this time: a Miami-FSU CG.  All they gotta do is beat Tech, really, and not lose more than once.

-- FSU must have been kinda cheesed off about all this Maryland talk.

-- NC State is definitely one of the Jekyll-and-Hydiest teams in the ACC.  A loss to Wake - ouch.

-- Seriously, man - really cheesed off.

-- UNC is setting up to be the team I missed the hardest on in the preseason.  I mean, they might not even go bowling unless they rattle off a huge win streak after their inevitable Thursday loss to Miami this week.  The competition afterwards kinda sucks, so they could do it, but still.

-- I'm not kidding.  Pissed as hell.

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It's a small Senior Seasons section this week, because Farrar, Richardson, and Moss were all on bye weeks this weekend.  Probably a record for the smallest ever.  Nevertheless, we press on.  Grimly.

Collins Hill 35, Peachtree Ridge 28: Jordan Ellis racked up three more touchdowns and 102 rushing yards, but his team suffered their first loss of the season in a battle of undefeated teams.  Peachtree Ridge is 5-1.

Lawrenceville 48, Episcopal 47: Evan Butts caught what would've been the game-tying touchdown if Episcopal had kicked the extra point, but they went for two and ended their long winning streak in the process.  Episcopal is 5-1.

Central Catholic 35, St. Petersburg Catholic 14 (Caanan Brown) - CCC is 5-1.
Oscar Smith 70, Deep Creek 6 (Andrew Brown) - Oscar Smith is 5-0.
Bayside 18, Kellam 10 (Quin Blanding) - Bayside is 3-3.
Woodgrove 35, Heritage 7 (J.J. Jackson) - Woodgrove is 3-2.

That's all I got for one night.  I could go on about depth chart changes this week, but the only ones were at wide receiver where none of Jennings, Terrell, or Smith are atop the charts.  You can riddle that out on your own.  Nothing is working for me tonight, from the plumbing to the compass to the thermostat, and I don't mean my house.  And we might be less than a week away from "wait til basketball season" so that's not the best of mood-setters either.

game preview: Ball State

Date/Time: Saturday, October 5; 12:00

TV: RSN/ESPN3

Record against the Cardinals: 0-0

Last meeting: N/A

Last weekend: Pitt 14, UVA 3; BSU 31, Tol. 24

Line: UVA by 5

Injury report: none

One kind of annoying thing about having kind of a (perceived) lousy team: nobody gives you credit for the good things you can do.  UVA is a fashionable upset pick this week because "Ball State has a good offense."  (Classic example: David Hale on the ESPN blog writes, "Ball State QB Keith Wenning has thrown for more than 300 yards in every game so far, meaning the Cavaliers are likely going to need some offensive fireworks of their own to keep pace."  What that actually says is, "UVA's defense isn't good enough to stop him from doing so again.") That offense has been on display against teams like the mighty Eastern Michigan Eagles, but whatever.  UVA's defense isn't being given a whole lot of attention.  DARK HORSEZ MAN.  US VS. EVERYBODY.  This is a must-win game, though; I chalked up Ball State as a win on the road to bowl eligibility not because I think they suck VMI-style, but because if you can't beat Ball State you're gonna find the road in the ACC awfully tough.  So if we do - somehow - pull off the win, don't forget to drop Hale, Mark Schlabach, and Heather Dinich a friendly little hello.

-- UVA run offense vs. BSU run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 72 carries, 294 yards, 4.1 ypc, 3 TDs
Daniel Hamm: 23 carries, 141 yards, 6.1 ypc, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
163.75 yards/game, 3.70 yards/attempt
96th of 125 (national), 12 of 14 (ACC)

BSU defense:
202.6 yards/game, 4.65 yards/attempt
90th of 125 (national), 8th of 13 (MAC)

The question I've been rhetorically asking all season is: which back is going to be Kevin Parks's primary reliever?  It might be that the answer is nobody.  Part of the deal there is injuries - all three of the primary options, including both the surprise and the non-surprises, have been dealing with injury.  I think the other likely explanation is this: Parks is the only one the coaches consistently trust to run the read-option with Watford (inexperienced backs can logarithmically increase your fumble rate on that play) and Watford defaults to handing off.  Parks has averaged 18 carries a game, and that's including his half-day against VMI and the forced pass-happy day (UVA attempted 47 passes) against Oregon.

When Mike London announced changes on the offensive line, it was primarily to get the running game going.  Pass protection, while not spectacular, isn't a total disaster either; Aaron Donald did make it look worse than it has been, but it was basically the running game that instigated the change.  I'm slightly more than cautiously optimistic about it; Jay Whitmire is undoubtedly one of the top linemen on the team, and you can tell because of how his RT position was never challenged in camp.  No, that's not a knock on the challengers.  He will be a colossal upgrade over Cody Wallace and is also probably better than the still-injured Conner Davis.  RG just got a lot better.

So that should help the run game.  We'll have to see about center; the smart money leans toward Jackson Matteo, whose track to the starting job was derailed by an injury in camp.  He's now over that and should be ready, but the fact that he's an unknown quantity makes me more nervous about that potential change.

Ball State should be a good way to ease the linemen into their new roles.  There's no dominant force on the Cardinal D-line - the closest thing might be DT Nathan Ollie, who's got a few TFL to his name - and running offenses both good and bad have moved the ball against them.  Eastern Michigan, the 118th rushing offense in the country, had 4.6 yards a carry, and North Texas (101st) was over five.  The Cardinals have some decent linebacking from Ben Ingle and Zack Ryan, but ultimately there's no individual in particular to game-plan for.  That's great news for our offense; it means they can focus internally without penalty, and worry about what they want to do rather than what they have to do to avoid the strengths of the defense.

It's still early, so hope springs eternal yet; I might be a hopeless dumbass for this, but let's just go ahead and call a 100-yard day for Kevin Parks.  Five yards a carry on the 20 carries he'll get given the likely injury state of the other backs.  125 yards on the ground is all the Hoos need for a non-VMI season best, and I think they get it.

-- UVA pass offense vs. BSU pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 80/135, 59.3%; 604 yards, 3 TDs, 6 INTs; 4.47 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 14 rec., 107 yards, 1 TD
Jake McGee: 16 rec., 91 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
158.5 yards/game, 4.3 yards/attempt
125th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

BSU defense:
223.6 yards/game, 6.4 yards/attempt
50th of 125 (national), 2nd of 13 (MAC)

It's official now: we have the worst-ass pass offense in the nation.  Last week pretty much cemented that.  Very rarely was the offense ever able to put together good protection, good decision-making, a good throw, and an actual catch all in one play.  The receivers found themselves on notice in practice this week for all the drops.

That part can probably improve.  Darius Jennings and Jake McGee have never been stonehanded players.  Dominique Terrell used to be, but not for a while now, and he actually was not a major culprit (in the passing game, anyway.)  Despite the depth chart and its "or" overload, I don't think there'll be a revolution there.  We'll probably see most of the usual suspects again.

Watford's decision-making is a work in progress, though, and it's going to come along at its own pace rather than there suddenly being some opponent which makes it easier on us.  And a new right tackle (true freshman Eric Smith) could have us keeping an eye on pass protection.  Ball State doesn't have any dynamic pass-rushers, but they like to bring blitzes from different areas; their sack leader, with two, is cornerback Kenneth Lee.  The D-line accounts for only 3 of their 8 sacks, so this is another reason for the coaches to want to lean on the veteran RB in Parks, as well as something else for Watford to have to watch.

There are too many moving parts in a passing game for me to hold the same kind of optimism as with the running game.  And the Cardinal defense is better in this realm.  The D-line won't generate a big pass rush, so that's a plus, but Ball State is good at keeping things in front of them and making a few turnovers happen here and there.  I don't think Watford gets more than 6 yards a pop, tops.

-- BSU run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Horactio Banks: 55 carries, 350 yards, 6.4 ypc, 5 TDs
Jahwan Edwards: 49 carries, 219 yards, 4.5 ypc, 7 TDs

BSU offense:
136.6 yards/game, 4.30 yards/attempt
76th of 125 (national), 4th of 13 (MAC)

UVA defense:
146.5 yards/game, 3.83 yards/attempt
53rd of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

The real testament here to the quality of the UVA defense is that they're comfortably in the top half of the country despite that 350-yard Oregon game.  The rest of the time, which includes two perfectly decent BCS-level opponents, UVA has been crushing running games into fine powder, and their yards-per-carry stat in those three would be good enough for second in the country.

So despite the very nice-looking stats of Ball State's primary ballcarriers, I'd say it's the Cardinals that have to prove themselves here.  Their backs are smallish all the way around; Horactio Banks is sort of normal-small at 5'10", but Jahwan Edwards is stocky as hell at the same height and 225 pounds.  They're a little bit of a poor man's thunder and lightning; Edwards might have a little bit better of a ypc average if he weren't called on a lot in short yardage.  Ball State also uses freshman mini-back Teddy Williamson, but he hasn't been productive yet.

At any rate, there's not a lot to discuss, matchup-wise.  We've gotten to the point where I'm perfectly comfy turning our defense loose and not worrying about the result because it'll take care of itself.  OK, we can talk about that a little bit; Ball State does have a pair of what Gregg Easterbrook used to call Ticonderoga-class offensive guards in Jalen Schlachter and Jordan Hansel.  They should be able to win a few battles here and there.  Still, I don't think either of BSU's primary backs can top even half their season average for yards per carry, nor two-thirds their yards-per-game.

-- BSU pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Keith Wenning: 118/184, 64.1%; 1,650 yards, 9 TDs, 3 INTs; 8.97 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Willie Snead: 35 rec., 611 yards, 4 TDs
Jamill Smith: 28 rec., 397 yards, 1 TD

BSU offense:
335.8 yards/game, 8.7 yards/attempt
25th of 125 (national), 2nd of 13 (MAC)

UVA defense:
152.8 yards/game, 4.7 yards/attempt
4th of 125 (national), 1st of 14 (ACC)

These defensive numbers are so good (that is, low) that I seriously thought for a second I had accidentally called up the offensive stats again.  They're even pretty close.  Again, they're you-have-to-beat-us numbers.

Ball State should be relatively easy to scout because they don't spread the ball around much.  The guys you see on film are the ones you'll see on game day.  That goes for the running and passing game.  The top four receivers account for 81% of the receptions; the next two are hurt, so it's more like 93% considering only receptions by players actually available.

This area of the game, though, is why people think Ball State will win.  Keith Wenning is a senior QB with a load of experience under his belt; he's been a starter since he was a freshman.  He's averaging 330 yards a game.  His stats are also you-have-to-beat-us stats.  Receiver Willie Snead has already hauled in 611 yards, more than two-thirds of ACC receivers (if not more) will have all year.  Ball State also has Jamill Smith, an itsy-bitsy spider at 5'8", 141, and Jordan Williams is their big guy at 6'2".  Solid receiving corps, but if our secondary can cover Devin Street and Tyler Boyd consistently, they should also be able to handle Ball State's gang.

Wenning has thrown for at least 317 yards in every game, but every defense they've faced has been trash.  Every I-A team they've faced ranks in the triple-digits against the pass.  North Texas - and that's the team that beat the Cardinals, by the way - is 120th.  Yes, Ball State's been good at protecting the passer and moving the ball with tremendous efficiency - but they're in a whole new ballgame here.  Wenning is not going to top that 300 mark, nor even 250, I would hazard.

-- Favorability ratings

The offense is in such a state that there is no longer any team in which I can possibly give them a favorable rating.  Maybe VMI.  Maybe.

Run offense: 4
Pass offense: 2.5
Run defense: 8
Pass defense: 7.5

Average: 5.5

-- Outlook

For the first time this year I don't think the average favorability quite does the game justice.  It's cliched but true to brag that Ball State, gaudy though their numbers might be, has not faced a defense like ours.  I make an allowance for their accomplishments, but the baseline favorability ratings right now ought to be, like, 2 for the offense and 9 for the defense.  Ball State actually plays fairly well into our hands; the thing they do best pits them against the teeth of the monster, and the thing they do worst (defend the run) is well-positioned to let us look for a rebound game.  I think it'll be a little tighter than would be comfortable at times, but in the end we should be happy with the result.

-- Prediction summary

Admittedly some of these do not set the bar all that high, but c'mon.  Baby steps.

-- Kevin Parks runs for over 100 yards.

-- The offense as a whole runs for over 125 yards.

-- No new favorite receivers.  The receptions leader among non-RBs will be Jennings, McGee, Smith, or Terrell; nobody with fewer than nine catches.

-- However, one receiver with two catches or fewer will gather in at least four.

-- Ball State's top RBs, Banks and Edwards, reach neither one-half their seasonal ypc nor two-thirds their average ypg.

-- Keith Wenning throws for fewer than 250 yards.

Final score: UVA 24, BSU 13

-- Rest of the ACC

Maryland @ Florida State - 12:00 - If Maryland wins, or even comes close, I promise to stop saying "we'll have to wait and see if they're any good."

North Carolina @ Virginia Tech - 12:30 - Hokies fans are always so torn for this game.  It's like choosing between children.

Boston College vs. Army - 1:00 - The Eagles look to "shut down" (HA HA GET IT BECAUSE OF THE GOVERNMENT?) the Army attack.

NC State @ Wake Forest - 3:30 - Remember how I said the Deacons' O-line was horrible and the NC State D-line was awesome?  That's still true, so this ought to be an interesting game.

Clemson @ Syracuse - 3:30 - I don't expect this to be all that competitive either.

Georgia Tech @ Miami - 3:30 - If GT wins it could really screw up the Coastal race.

Byes: Pittsburgh, Duke

weekend review

No review of the weekend's events would be complete without discussing the depth chart changes, so let's get right on that.  In ascending order of importance, these are at tight end, linebacker, wide receiver, O-line, and punt returner.

-- Zach Swanson's lack of presence probably means an injury from which it's going to take a while to come back.  Too bad, because his play early in the season was strong.  But his absence isn't why the offense sucked, either.

-- Demeitre Brim moves from strong-side to weak-side LB.  I think this is a subtle way of saying Max Valles will be on the field more, and that the SLB position is becoming more and more of an extra pass rush than a traditional Sam role.

-- Wide receiver.  "Or" shows up everywhere.  No starters this week except those that earn the job in practice by not screwing up, is how to read that.   My guess is that the de facto impact will be small - for one thing, Darius Jennings's participation in the construction of such an exquisite pile of shit was surprising and probably short-lived.  Here's betting he doesn't drop a thing all week.  The rest I'm not so sure about, so we'll just have to see come game time.

-- And the much-maligned-and-deservedly-so O-line.  The five-best-guys philosophy is on full display with Jay Whitmire moving to the problematic RG position and Eric Smith taking over at tackle.  Cody Wallace moves to LG behind Luke Bowanko, which is code for you'll never see him again because Bowanko is considered one of the rocks.  Wallace just got buried.

I'm less sure what it means that Michael Mooney moves to backup LT - I think that's probably a promotion of sorts.  Sadiq Olanrewaju definitely got promoted; even though he's behind Smith (obviously) that's better than being behind Morgan Moses.  It might seem like Whitmire got demoted (tackle to guard, after all) but it's really more a function of him having a couple years on Smith and therefore being more versatile.

The center battle is back on, too, probably not least because of Burbank's bad snap.

-- Finally we come to punt returner - where no change whatsoever was made.  This is bad in a couple different ways.  Mike London can't be on the accountability train if he's letting slide the single stupidest play of UVA's season so far.  It's fortunate that Dominique Terrell is from northern VA or this would really open the door to 757 favoritism charges.  You had a lot of that undercurrent with Phillip Sims; allowing Terrell's drunken balloon chase to go unaddressed would practically blow those doors open if he were from Chesapeake or something.

The final verdict is that these are generally positive changes taken one by one.  Wallace just has never been an ACC-level lineman.  Putting a week-long microscope on the receivers is a good idea - David Watford has enough trouble finding open receivers without them dropping the throw when he does.  But London's playing Russian roulette with his credibility over what should be a very simple call at PR.  Can't fully trust what he says about fixing problems when he won't fix the most visible one.

FWIW, London has said that will be a practice competition too, but actions are speaking louder than words here.  Until I see someone besides Terrell back there I won't believe it - and really, even then, it shouldn't be a competition, Terrell should simply sit and watch, because he's hurting the team as bad or worse than any other individual, the way he fields kicks.

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The ACC didn't produce too much in the way of surprises this week, except in Chapel Hill.  Quick takes on the week's action in the league:

-- UNC is definitely leaving me with egg on my face for picking them to win the Coastal.  ECU racked up 55 points on them, so maybe our offense can score a touchdown or two.

-- Maryland looks better and better each week, even when they don't play.  West Virginia's bounce-back win over Oklahoma State makes the Terps look awfully good.

-- VT's win in the battle of the Techs actually puts them in great shape, with UNC looking like a bunch of chumps and Miami being the only likely roadblock in the Coastal now.

At the one-third mark of the season, it's time to reassess the remaining schedule.  Beating BYU was a great step toward bowl-game respectability; losing to Pitt was almost as big a step back.  The remainder of the season breaks down like so.

Likely wins: Ball State, Duke.  Not "likely" in the traditional sense - just that you can't be a bowl team period if you can't beat those teams.

Likely losses: Miami, Clemson.  These would be the teams that our defense almost certainly can't stop enough for the offense to catch up.

Swing games: Maryland, GT, VT, UNC.  And let's be real, we're not exactly favored in most - or any - of these.  But if we can get past Ball State and Duke, we need only win two of these four.  And all these teams have serious flaws, although if that's true of Maryland, they've yet to be exposed.  Our defense, though, is good enough to at least give us a prayer of seeing a win in all four of these.

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Senior Seasons feature:

Peachtree Ridge 49, Habersham Central 0: Jordan Ellis only needed seven carries to have his biggest day of the season - he racked up three touchdowns, two of them on runs of 68 and 73 yards, and finished with 197 yards.  Peachtree Ridge is 5-0.

Episcopal 38, Chichester 20: Evan Butts had three catches for 111 yards.  Episcopal is 5-0.

Upland 42, Santiago 41 (Jeffery Farrar) - Upland is 3-2.
Central Catholic 38, Trinity Catholic 14 (Caanan Brown) - CCC is 4-1.
South Granville 56, Cummings 27 (Will Richardson) - Cummings is 1-5.
Ocean Lakes 49, Bayside 16 (Quin Blanding) - Bayside is 2-3.
Oscar Smith 56, Lakeland 6 (Andrew Brown) - Oscar Smith is 4-0.
Chancellor 37, Millbrook 3 (Steven Moss) - Chancellor is 1-4.
Briar Woods 45, Woodgrove 16 (J.J. Jackson) - Woodgrove is 2-2.