Yeah, OK. If you believe all those commercials that want you to GET PUMPED and then buy Gatorade or Under Armour or whatever, and if you do you too can NEVER QUIT and protect this house and never under any circumstances accept losing, then this post isn't for you.
Sure, if we were Virginia Tech this week, that'd be the right attitude. When you're ranked and you looked like ass in losing to James Madison (and I will not tire of this for a while given that William & Mary was still a favorite topic of conversation in Hokie circles up til Saturday afternoon) there's no point in pretending to look for positives. Everybody is running gassers for an hour, and it's only a question of who gets yelled at more in the meetings. But reality bites with this hard notion: we have a crappy football team on our hands that needs a major-league rebuilding in nearly all facets of the game, and losses come in all different shapes and sizes, and this one yesterday night is the best kind there is. Because that crappy football team is a giant leap along the path to non-crappiness.
I said before the game it would take a mistake-free game to pull off the win, and damn if that didn't bear itself out in painful fashion. If there was a mistake to be made, the Hoos did it. A laundry list, and this just off the top of my head:
- Red-zone interception.
- Missed field goals.
- Stupid late-hit penalty facilitating a USC touchdown.**
- Running into the punter.
- Dropped passes. (When your quarterback is that inaccurate, you have got to catch the ball on the rare occasions it hits you between the numbers.)
- Triple-digit penalty yardage.
**By a fifth-year senior! Trey Womack's numbnuts play was a carbon copy of one committed by a freshman Michigan cornerback that put them at real risk of blowing the feel-good win over Notre Dame. But that guy was a freshman. Womack has no excuse whatsoever for not knowing better.
And I didn't even get to the apparent mistake by the refs, with the bogus penalty on the fake punt. They apologized at halftime. Whoops, sorry for screwing you with our incomplete knowledge of the rulebook. This calls for a suspension. Bogus pass interference calls and holding penalties and such are one thing. Happen all the time. Cuss at the refs, move on. Even something like missing a ballcarrier stepping out of bounds are at some small level understandable because the fast pace of the game doesn't let you see everything. That's why they have instant replay and the saying that holding occurs on every play, it's just the really blatant ones that get called. But failure of an entire crew to have a correct knowledge of the rule book? Suspension-worthy. They should spend the next Saturday or two in an unpaid rules review seminar. It's unfortunate because the crew was otherwise mostly on top of things, but there's no excuse for a crew of officials not knowing the rule book. I sure didn't take that kind of mistake into account in the game preview.
At any rate, the 2008 game was a 52-7 loss of the ugliest kind, and if you'd told me in advance about all those screw-ups listed above, I'd've expected the same kind of score. Heck, a lot of Hoos were expecting that kind of score anyway, and I'd be lying if I said I'd've been surprised to see it. That we were so close anyway says at least as much about USC as it does about UVA, frankly: for example, if I were them, I wouldn't be too excited about that front seven.
Still, USC is a talented bunch. And even if the passing game was totally dysfunctional until the last drive, you have to love how the running game is shaking out. Two games in and the running back question has been very definitively answered, and the O-line looks like they know what they're doing. That's my favorite part of these first two games: the 1-2 punch of Perry Jones and Keith Payne looking like a really legit threat.
Second-favorite part: that UVA just walked into the Los Angeles Coliseum not even remotely intimidated and stayed that way all night. If there's any USC mystique left, Mike London didn't let it get to his team. If they can show that kind of poise in the Coliseum, could it be that the Jekyll-and-Hyde act of flopping miserably in road games is also a thing of the past?
The ACC took a major, major beating on Saturday, but what Hoo fan really cares? We never were looking at a BCS berth and still aren't, really, but between almost winning at USC and watching VT (they lost to James Madison) and the rest of the conference shit the bed (particularly VT, who lost to James Madison), that ACC schedule looks a lot easier to negotiate than it did on Friday. At this point there's nary a game on the docket that looks unwinnable anymore, not even VT, which just lost to James Madison. Lose this battle against USC and still the war looks a lot easier? I'll take it.
Showing posts with label usc. Show all posts
Showing posts with label usc. Show all posts
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Thursday, September 9, 2010
game preview: USC
Date/Time: Saturday, September 11; 10:30 PMTV: FSN
History against the Trojans: 0-1
Last matchup: USC 52, UVA 7; 8-30-2008
Last week: UVA 34, Richmond 13; USC 49, Hawaii 36
Line: USC by 19.5
Opposing blogs: Conquest Chronicles
Injury report: none, but Rodney McLeod isn't on the depth chart
This week's uniform: white jersey, orange pants
USC season preview
Ever wonder what it's like to be a MAC school in the early season? Now's your chance. Saturday's game will played in a stadium called the Coliseum - fitting, because last week, against Richmond, we were the lions; this week, it's our turn to be the Christians.
HOW WE CAN WIN
- Near-perfection. That's basically what it boils down to. USC is "down" these days, which basically means they're at risk of having a season as poor as UVA's best of the decade. The horror. USC has its weaknesses, but everything in this section assumes that everything UVA does on Saturday is executed to the absolute pinnacle of their ability.
- Healthy Ras-I Dowling. It's a safe bet that UVA has a better defense than Hawaii, which fell outside the top 80 in just about everything last year. So if Ras-I is on the field, I won't sit up nights worrying about USC's receivers not named Ronald Johnson. Johnson is, essentially, a terrific possession receiver who can also stretch the field a bit (though if there's a play missing from the USC arsenal, it's probably the deep bomb) and it'll take a big, athletic corner like Dowling to keep him silent. Chase Minnifield is good but probably not good enough to shut down Johnson. But he and the rest of the secondary can handle the rest of the USC passing attack reasonably well if Dowling is on the field.
- Have a field day through the air. Establishing the ground game against Richmond was a lot of fun, but it won't consistently work here. This isn't I-AA anymore and USC's linebackers are too good to let UVA control the clock with Keith Payne and Perry Jones. The weak point of USC's defense is the secondary, which couldn't come up with a single turnover against Hawaii and let the Warriors sling the ball all over the field. The Warrior receivers had big, big days. Run the ball just enough to make USC respect the play-fake, and throw plenty of fade and curl routes to isolate USC's corners against UVA's receivers. If UVA wins, mark my words the receivers will have a lot of fancy stats to their credit.
HOW WE CAN LOSE
- Pretty much by not doing everything exactly right. Coming within two touchdowns would be a moral victory, but not an actual one.
- Same ol', same ol' on special teams. Last week was a special teams disaster: lousy punt coverage, two missed field goals because one kicker doesn't have the leg and the other doesn't have the accuracy, and a blown blocking assignment leading to a failed 2PC that was supposed to be a simple PAT. Ronald Johnson ran a punt back for a touchdown against Hawaii and he'll do so again if things don't shape up here. UVA simply can't afford to take points off the board or give up a lightning-strike touchdown.
- Lousy pass-blocking. I take it as a given that the running game won't be as productive as it was last week, and I do think Marc Verica has the ability to connect with his receivers for the necessary yardage. But not if the USC pass rush is in his grill all game. The Trojans will get their points, no doubt about it, so the one thing that can turn an upset into a loss or a loss into a blowout is poor pass-blocking. USC knows how to take advantage of crappy offensive lines and I'm still not convinced ours can hold up for a full 60 minutes.
HOW THE GAME WILL GO
Probably badly. The WhatIf simulator gives UVA less than a 20% chance of a win, which is actually better than I thought. (Two notes: the preseason simulator gave UVA a 5-7, 2-6 record, which is pretty fair. And WhatIf boasts of an 85% success rate in week 1, which is of debatable impressiveness when everyone was playing the closest patsy they could find.) Anyway, that 20% is a lot better than you might expect, but it's still in shocking upset territory. Which we all knew. Like I said, it would take near-perfect execution from start to finish to pull this one off. More likely is a three-touchdown blowout.
REST OF THE ACC
Duke @ Wake Forest, 12:00
Georgia Tech @ Kansas, 12:00
Virginia Tech vs. James Madison, 1:30
Florida State @ Oklahoma, 3:30
Clemson vs. Presbyterian, 3:30
Boston College vs. Kent State, 3:30
Miami @ Ohio State, 3:30
Maryland vs. Morgan State, 6:00
NC State at Central Florida, 7:30
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
season previews: USC and EMU
Wrapping up the season previews with the two I-A OOC opponents. You could hardly find two more polar opposite programs.
USC Trojans
Projected starters:
QB: Matt Barkley (So.)
RB: Marc Tyler (rJr.)
FB: Stanley Havili (5Sr.)
WR: Ronald Johnson (5Sr.)
WR: Brice Butler (rSo.)
TE: Rhett Ellison (rJr.)
LT: Matt Kalil (rSo.)
LG: Butch Lewis (5Sr.)
C: Kristofer O'Dowd (Sr.)
RG: Zack Heberer (5Sr.)
RT: Tyron Smith (Jr.)
DE: Armond Armstead (Jr.)
NT: DaJohn Harris (rJr.)
DT: Jurrell Casey (Jr.)
DE: Nick Perry (rSo.)
SLB: Michael Morgan (5Sr.)
MLB: Chris Galippo (rJr.)
WLB: Malcolm Smith (Sr.)
CB: Shareece Wright (5Sr.)
CB: T.J. Bryant (Jr.)
FS: T.J. McDonald (So.)
SS: Jawanza Starling (So.)
K: Joe Houston (5Sr.)
P: Jacob Harfman (Sr.)
Italics indicate new starter.)
Coach: Lane Kiffin (1st season)
Media prediction: 2nd, Pac-10
All-Pac-10:
2009 1st team: WR/PR Damian Williams, OL Jeff Byers, OL Charles Brown, DB Taylor Mays
2009 2nd team: DL Everson Griffen, DB Josh Pinkard, DB Evan Thomas, ST Garrett Green
2009 HM: RB Allen Bradford, DT Jurrell Casey, LB Chris Galippo, S Will Harris, G Butch Lewis, TE Anthony McCoy, RB Joe McKnight, OT Tyron Smith, DT Christian Tupou
(Italics indicate departed player.)
Sure, you know the story. Bowl bans, scholarships, the works. It remains to be seen whether that'll have an effect on USC's season other than not seeing them in the postseason, but keep in mind this: any time you see someone, present company included, say that USC's kind of thin at a position or a little shaky somewhere, always add the words "for USC" to the end of the sentence.
OFFENSE
The one exception to that last directive is at quarterback. While Matt Barkley is healthy and ready to continue his ascent on the path of hype, injuries and suspensions have decimated the QB corps behind him to the point where it's likely USC would have to use a walk-on at Hawaii should he get hurt between now and the end of that game.
UVA fans hoping to see the suspension of Dillon Baxter last beyond the Hawaii game will probably be disappointed; Lane Kiffin isn't noted for his iron fist. Allen Bradford looked like he'd get first crack at the tailback spot, but fall camp saw him get beaten out by junior Marc Tyler. But he's a big, bruising back who will always have a role, especially in short yardage. Baxter will likely see his carries increase as the year goes on. Stanley Havili is another big bruiser and one of the best all-around fullbacks in the country.
Wide receiver is another area where you should expect to see some super-hyped freshmen worm their way into the lineup sooner or later. Ronald Johnson's time on the field isn't going anywhere, but Markeith Ambles and Kyle Prater were two of the biggest 2010 recruits in all the country, and one of them could start edging Brice Butler out of the way at some point.
If Kristofer O'Dowd stays healthy, he'll anchor the offensive line and open some big holes at center, but his injury history is long and colorful. Butch Lewis starts next to him at left guard, but Lewis is USC's most versatile lineman and can play inside or outside, an important quality if brand-new starter Matt Kalil falters at left tackle.
DEFENSE
On defense it's two rebuilding projects and one foundation for USC. The foundation is the linebacking corps, where experience abounds. On one side, Malcolm Smith is the leading returning tackler despite missing three games in 2009 with assorted injuries. Opposite him is Michael Morgan, who had 13 TFLs in 2009. The middle is manned by junior Chris Galippo, who was a Butkus semifinalist last season as just a sophomore in his first starting season.
The line is trickier, but answers are probably on the way. Wes Horton started 2009, his redshirt freshman season, as the starter at DE, but was largely unproductive and was eventually nudged out of the job. Getting it back will be tough this season with supertalented sophomore Nick Perry breathing down his neck; Perry didn't start at all in 2009 but still led the team in sacks with eight. Armond Armstead's 2009 season was injury-riddled, dragging down his production, but he'll get first crack at starting on the other end. It's not all inexperience among the starters, though: Jurrell Casey is a huge, playmaking tackle with a knack for getting turnovers.
All four starters in the secondary must be replaced. Shareece Wright returns to the lineup after being academically ineligible in 2009, and he'll bring experience to a unit that needs it. The opposite corner, T.J. Bryant, gets a promotion to the starting lineup from nickel cornerback, so the safeties should be the only major question mark here.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Joe Houston is a walk-on kicker who earned a scholarship (USC's got plenty to give these days after losing several players to the NCAA's get-out-of-jail-free policy) after winning the placekicking job this fall against punter Jacob Harfman. Harfman keeps the punting job, but isn't anything special.
OUTLOOK
Lane Kiffin brought a decade's worth of drama to Knoxville, Tennessee in just one year; imagine what he might be able to do in Hollywood. Kiffin's clownish behavior makes it easy to peg him as incompetent, but he's got a hell of a lot more talent to work with in LA. USC is still USC, and their backups could play at three-fourths of the schools in the country. They might not be eligible for a bowl game, but they're going to make life miserable for a lot of teams trying to get there themselves.
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Projected starters:
QB: Alex Gillett (So.)
RB: Dwayne Priest (Sr.)
RB: Dominique Sherrer (Jr.)
WR: Tyrone Burke (5Sr.)
WR: Kinsman Thomas (So.)
TE: Ben Thayer (5Sr.)
LT: Bridger Buche (rJr.)
LG: Andrew Sorgatz (So.)
C: Eric Davis (5Sr.)
RG: Dan DeMaster (5Sr.)
RT: Korey Neal (rSo.)
DE: Javon Reese (Jr.)
DT: Brandon Slater (rJr.)
DT: Ryan Leonard (Sr.)
DE: Brad Ohrman (rJr.)
SLB: Tim Fort (5Sr.)
MLB: Marcus English (rJr.)
WLB: Nate Paopao (Sr.)
CB: Arrington Hicks (Sr.)
CB: Marcell Rose (So.)
FS: Latarrius Thomas (Sr.)
SS: Ryan Downard (Sr.)
K: Kody Fulkerson (Fr.)
P: Jay Karutz (Fr.)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Coach: Ron English (2nd season)
Media prediction: 6th place, MAC West
All-MAC:
2009 1st team: none
2009 2nd team: P Zach Johnson
2009 3rd team: LB Andre Hatchett
(Italics indicate departed player.)
It's not easy to put together a winning program when you share a county with the winningest program of all time. Eastern Michigan has had its ups and downs, the latter far, far outnumbering the former, and the last decade was an especially painful one - Eastern hasn't seen the bright side of .500 since 1995, and hit rock bottom last year as new coach Ron English purged the older, more malcontent elements of the program en route to a winless season.
OFFENSE
It wouldn't be a bad team without a quarterback controversy, and EMU has their share of that. Alex Gillett won the starting job midseason, although how is something of a mystery as he threw just three touchdowns against seven picks and completed less than 50% of his passes. The job isn't his in stone yet.
Gillett did prove to be a capable runner, averaging 5.1 yards a carry. Actual starting RB Dwayne Priest isn't going to scare anyone with his 3.6 average, and he'll probably have to split the carries more evenly than he did last year when he had 175. If there is a big-play threat on the Eagles' offense, it's probably sophomore receiver Kinsman Thomas, whose 18.3 yards/catch and three touchdowns led the team during his freshman season.
There's experience on the line, if a shortage of talent. Dan DeMaster is a longtime starter who moves back to right guard from left tackle. This opens up the tackle spot to give back to Bridger Buche, who was a full-time starter in 2008 but missed all of '09 with an injury. Sophomore LG Andrew Sorgatz was a full-time starter as a freshman and is part of an improving group of younger linemen that Eastern needs for the future.
DEFENSE
The defensive line is woefully underproductive; the four projected starters combined for a total of 2.5 sacks in 2009, and end Brad Ohrman chipped in zero. Eastern relied on now-departed Brandon Downs for quarterback pressure, and someone is going to have to step up.
EMU also lost their one non-punter all-conference selection in linebacker Andre Hatchett. Mike backer Marcus English (no relation to the coach) could be a capable replacement in the playmaking role, racking up 41 tackles in just six games. But overall, this front seven has a ton of work to do in order to claw their way up to sub-mediocrity: Eastern gave up 6.3 yards per carry and 277 yards per game to opposing running games.
They were also worst in yards per attempt when defending the pass, at 8.0. The only reason they appeared to have the MAC's best pass defense was because the media usually (foolishly) bases that on yards per game, and nobody ever bothered passing when they could run the ball so easily. But there should be an upgrade in the secondary this year; the simple presence of Latarrius Thomas should be enough. Thomas is a one-time starter for Louisville in the Big East and transferred to EMU to follow Ron English; having a legitimate, tested I-A talent in the secondary will be a plus.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Total revamp here, and little depth. Both starters are true freshmen, and Aussie Jay Karutz is the only punter on the roster.
OUTLOOK
Richmond would beat this team. Eastern Michigan tends to rank outside the top 100 in just about every conceivable category, and though it's not easy to go 0-12, Eastern is the likely underdog in every one of their games. English is a decent coach and should have them on the upswing in time, but he was handed a huge, huge mess. It's a very long road to respectability. Their presence on UVA's schedule, along with VMI, means that 2-10 should be considered the worst-case scenario and dropping below that level would be cause for pitchforks and torches.
USC Trojans
Projected starters:
QB: Matt Barkley (So.)
RB: Marc Tyler (rJr.)
FB: Stanley Havili (5Sr.)
WR: Ronald Johnson (5Sr.)
WR: Brice Butler (rSo.)
TE: Rhett Ellison (rJr.)
LT: Matt Kalil (rSo.)
LG: Butch Lewis (5Sr.)
C: Kristofer O'Dowd (Sr.)
RG: Zack Heberer (5Sr.)
RT: Tyron Smith (Jr.)
DE: Armond Armstead (Jr.)
NT: DaJohn Harris (rJr.)
DT: Jurrell Casey (Jr.)
DE: Nick Perry (rSo.)
SLB: Michael Morgan (5Sr.)
MLB: Chris Galippo (rJr.)
WLB: Malcolm Smith (Sr.)
CB: Shareece Wright (5Sr.)
CB: T.J. Bryant (Jr.)
FS: T.J. McDonald (So.)
SS: Jawanza Starling (So.)
K: Joe Houston (5Sr.)
P: Jacob Harfman (Sr.)
Italics indicate new starter.)
Coach: Lane Kiffin (1st season)
Media prediction: 2nd, Pac-10
All-Pac-10:
2009 1st team: WR/PR Damian Williams, OL Jeff Byers, OL Charles Brown, DB Taylor Mays
2009 2nd team: DL Everson Griffen, DB Josh Pinkard, DB Evan Thomas, ST Garrett Green
2009 HM: RB Allen Bradford, DT Jurrell Casey, LB Chris Galippo, S Will Harris, G Butch Lewis, TE Anthony McCoy, RB Joe McKnight, OT Tyron Smith, DT Christian Tupou
(Italics indicate departed player.)
Sure, you know the story. Bowl bans, scholarships, the works. It remains to be seen whether that'll have an effect on USC's season other than not seeing them in the postseason, but keep in mind this: any time you see someone, present company included, say that USC's kind of thin at a position or a little shaky somewhere, always add the words "for USC" to the end of the sentence.
OFFENSE
The one exception to that last directive is at quarterback. While Matt Barkley is healthy and ready to continue his ascent on the path of hype, injuries and suspensions have decimated the QB corps behind him to the point where it's likely USC would have to use a walk-on at Hawaii should he get hurt between now and the end of that game.
UVA fans hoping to see the suspension of Dillon Baxter last beyond the Hawaii game will probably be disappointed; Lane Kiffin isn't noted for his iron fist. Allen Bradford looked like he'd get first crack at the tailback spot, but fall camp saw him get beaten out by junior Marc Tyler. But he's a big, bruising back who will always have a role, especially in short yardage. Baxter will likely see his carries increase as the year goes on. Stanley Havili is another big bruiser and one of the best all-around fullbacks in the country.
Wide receiver is another area where you should expect to see some super-hyped freshmen worm their way into the lineup sooner or later. Ronald Johnson's time on the field isn't going anywhere, but Markeith Ambles and Kyle Prater were two of the biggest 2010 recruits in all the country, and one of them could start edging Brice Butler out of the way at some point.
If Kristofer O'Dowd stays healthy, he'll anchor the offensive line and open some big holes at center, but his injury history is long and colorful. Butch Lewis starts next to him at left guard, but Lewis is USC's most versatile lineman and can play inside or outside, an important quality if brand-new starter Matt Kalil falters at left tackle.
DEFENSE
On defense it's two rebuilding projects and one foundation for USC. The foundation is the linebacking corps, where experience abounds. On one side, Malcolm Smith is the leading returning tackler despite missing three games in 2009 with assorted injuries. Opposite him is Michael Morgan, who had 13 TFLs in 2009. The middle is manned by junior Chris Galippo, who was a Butkus semifinalist last season as just a sophomore in his first starting season.
The line is trickier, but answers are probably on the way. Wes Horton started 2009, his redshirt freshman season, as the starter at DE, but was largely unproductive and was eventually nudged out of the job. Getting it back will be tough this season with supertalented sophomore Nick Perry breathing down his neck; Perry didn't start at all in 2009 but still led the team in sacks with eight. Armond Armstead's 2009 season was injury-riddled, dragging down his production, but he'll get first crack at starting on the other end. It's not all inexperience among the starters, though: Jurrell Casey is a huge, playmaking tackle with a knack for getting turnovers.
All four starters in the secondary must be replaced. Shareece Wright returns to the lineup after being academically ineligible in 2009, and he'll bring experience to a unit that needs it. The opposite corner, T.J. Bryant, gets a promotion to the starting lineup from nickel cornerback, so the safeties should be the only major question mark here.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Joe Houston is a walk-on kicker who earned a scholarship (USC's got plenty to give these days after losing several players to the NCAA's get-out-of-jail-free policy) after winning the placekicking job this fall against punter Jacob Harfman. Harfman keeps the punting job, but isn't anything special.
OUTLOOK
Lane Kiffin brought a decade's worth of drama to Knoxville, Tennessee in just one year; imagine what he might be able to do in Hollywood. Kiffin's clownish behavior makes it easy to peg him as incompetent, but he's got a hell of a lot more talent to work with in LA. USC is still USC, and their backups could play at three-fourths of the schools in the country. They might not be eligible for a bowl game, but they're going to make life miserable for a lot of teams trying to get there themselves.
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Projected starters:
QB: Alex Gillett (So.)
RB: Dwayne Priest (Sr.)
RB: Dominique Sherrer (Jr.)
WR: Tyrone Burke (5Sr.)
WR: Kinsman Thomas (So.)
TE: Ben Thayer (5Sr.)
LT: Bridger Buche (rJr.)
LG: Andrew Sorgatz (So.)
C: Eric Davis (5Sr.)
RG: Dan DeMaster (5Sr.)
RT: Korey Neal (rSo.)
DE: Javon Reese (Jr.)
DT: Brandon Slater (rJr.)
DT: Ryan Leonard (Sr.)
DE: Brad Ohrman (rJr.)
SLB: Tim Fort (5Sr.)
MLB: Marcus English (rJr.)
WLB: Nate Paopao (Sr.)
CB: Arrington Hicks (Sr.)
CB: Marcell Rose (So.)
FS: Latarrius Thomas (Sr.)
SS: Ryan Downard (Sr.)
K: Kody Fulkerson (Fr.)
P: Jay Karutz (Fr.)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Coach: Ron English (2nd season)
Media prediction: 6th place, MAC West
All-MAC:
2009 1st team: none
2009 2nd team: P Zach Johnson
2009 3rd team: LB Andre Hatchett
(Italics indicate departed player.)
It's not easy to put together a winning program when you share a county with the winningest program of all time. Eastern Michigan has had its ups and downs, the latter far, far outnumbering the former, and the last decade was an especially painful one - Eastern hasn't seen the bright side of .500 since 1995, and hit rock bottom last year as new coach Ron English purged the older, more malcontent elements of the program en route to a winless season.
OFFENSE
It wouldn't be a bad team without a quarterback controversy, and EMU has their share of that. Alex Gillett won the starting job midseason, although how is something of a mystery as he threw just three touchdowns against seven picks and completed less than 50% of his passes. The job isn't his in stone yet.
Gillett did prove to be a capable runner, averaging 5.1 yards a carry. Actual starting RB Dwayne Priest isn't going to scare anyone with his 3.6 average, and he'll probably have to split the carries more evenly than he did last year when he had 175. If there is a big-play threat on the Eagles' offense, it's probably sophomore receiver Kinsman Thomas, whose 18.3 yards/catch and three touchdowns led the team during his freshman season.
There's experience on the line, if a shortage of talent. Dan DeMaster is a longtime starter who moves back to right guard from left tackle. This opens up the tackle spot to give back to Bridger Buche, who was a full-time starter in 2008 but missed all of '09 with an injury. Sophomore LG Andrew Sorgatz was a full-time starter as a freshman and is part of an improving group of younger linemen that Eastern needs for the future.
DEFENSE
The defensive line is woefully underproductive; the four projected starters combined for a total of 2.5 sacks in 2009, and end Brad Ohrman chipped in zero. Eastern relied on now-departed Brandon Downs for quarterback pressure, and someone is going to have to step up.
EMU also lost their one non-punter all-conference selection in linebacker Andre Hatchett. Mike backer Marcus English (no relation to the coach) could be a capable replacement in the playmaking role, racking up 41 tackles in just six games. But overall, this front seven has a ton of work to do in order to claw their way up to sub-mediocrity: Eastern gave up 6.3 yards per carry and 277 yards per game to opposing running games.
They were also worst in yards per attempt when defending the pass, at 8.0. The only reason they appeared to have the MAC's best pass defense was because the media usually (foolishly) bases that on yards per game, and nobody ever bothered passing when they could run the ball so easily. But there should be an upgrade in the secondary this year; the simple presence of Latarrius Thomas should be enough. Thomas is a one-time starter for Louisville in the Big East and transferred to EMU to follow Ron English; having a legitimate, tested I-A talent in the secondary will be a plus.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Total revamp here, and little depth. Both starters are true freshmen, and Aussie Jay Karutz is the only punter on the roster.
OUTLOOK
Richmond would beat this team. Eastern Michigan tends to rank outside the top 100 in just about every conceivable category, and though it's not easy to go 0-12, Eastern is the likely underdog in every one of their games. English is a decent coach and should have them on the upswing in time, but he was handed a huge, huge mess. It's a very long road to respectability. Their presence on UVA's schedule, along with VMI, means that 2-10 should be considered the worst-case scenario and dropping below that level would be cause for pitchforks and torches.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
crash clunk
That sound you heard was the hopes - not expectations, mind you, just the hopes - of 64,947 people dropping to the concrete floor of Scott Stadium. (Some of those hopes admittedly had a soft landing on the hill, where they rolled to the bottom and got lost in the bushes somewhere.) I'm not sure exactly when that happened. I've narrowed it down to either sometime in the middle of a certain 4th-and-1 play in the first quarter, or perhaps round about the time the offense made two trips into USC territory with the score still in reach (21-7, 24-7, etc.) and came out with zilch.
Al Groh said, and I quote directly, “It wouldn’t be right for me or anybody to say that anybody played well today.” That is as candid a statement as you'll ever see from Groh, and translated out of coachspeak it means, "Fuck, that shit was fucking shitty." But coaches don't swear in front of the media, except for Mike Gundy. Coaches swear at quarterbacks with a habit of fumbling away the ball inside their own territory. At least we finally got to find out who would be our starting quarterback. Unfortunately we didn't learn anything about who'll start next game. I think Lalich had an OK game, other than the two fumbles, but two fumbles tend to overshadow a lot in coach's minds, especially when 64,947 people are screaming JUST FALL ON THE DAMN BALL!
That's not to say I agree 100% with Groh's assessment, though. Oh, I think you can pretty much rule out the defense, and the quarterback, and the offensive line mostly, and the running backs mostly. I'd like to have a more thorough analysis, but 52 points does the work for me as far as the defense is concerned. But a couple players did well. Jimmy Howell's punting work was good. Only one bad punt, IMO. He's begging to get one blocked and soon, though, unless he gets rid of it quicker.
What I liked, though, was the wide receivers. Cary Koch and Jared Green had games worth mentioning, and each bailed out Lalich on one occasion (more on that in a separate post, so's not to make this one too rambly.) I said we'd need to have someone step up besides just Ogletree to give defenses something to think about, and I think Koch and Green succeeded there. Dontrelle Inman had a nice catch too, which you won't see on the scoresheet because he landed out of bounds. Although, if he had done a better job of getting open, maybe the catch would be on the scoresheet after all.
None of that is the real silver lining, though. The real silver lining is the giant donkey shit half the rest of the ACC took this week as well. Clemson got steamrolled, and coincidentally, open season on Tommy Bowden began at about 11 PM last night. Tech got hoist with their own petard by ECU, though I really think their defense was all set to lose that game even if that punt hadn't been blocked. UNC struggled to beat I-AA McNeese State, though in fairness McNeese is not a bad team, having reeled off 11 straight wins to start last season. Maryland had similar troubles with Delaware. NC State (a team that it is most unfortunate we do not play this year) gave the hell up somewhere in the third quarter and got completely shut out.
So I dunno. I'd like to think that maybe USC is just so good that we can't really judge on that game. But hell, man, are we a BCS-conference team or what? (Though after the ACC's performance this week, some may question that.) I don't think anyone really expected to win. I also don't think anyone expected to lose by 45. I hate it when everyone says we're gonna be a bad team and then they turn out right. Hopefully the team hasn't forgotten their bounce-back lessons from last year.
Al Groh said, and I quote directly, “It wouldn’t be right for me or anybody to say that anybody played well today.” That is as candid a statement as you'll ever see from Groh, and translated out of coachspeak it means, "Fuck, that shit was fucking shitty." But coaches don't swear in front of the media, except for Mike Gundy. Coaches swear at quarterbacks with a habit of fumbling away the ball inside their own territory. At least we finally got to find out who would be our starting quarterback. Unfortunately we didn't learn anything about who'll start next game. I think Lalich had an OK game, other than the two fumbles, but two fumbles tend to overshadow a lot in coach's minds, especially when 64,947 people are screaming JUST FALL ON THE DAMN BALL!
That's not to say I agree 100% with Groh's assessment, though. Oh, I think you can pretty much rule out the defense, and the quarterback, and the offensive line mostly, and the running backs mostly. I'd like to have a more thorough analysis, but 52 points does the work for me as far as the defense is concerned. But a couple players did well. Jimmy Howell's punting work was good. Only one bad punt, IMO. He's begging to get one blocked and soon, though, unless he gets rid of it quicker.
What I liked, though, was the wide receivers. Cary Koch and Jared Green had games worth mentioning, and each bailed out Lalich on one occasion (more on that in a separate post, so's not to make this one too rambly.) I said we'd need to have someone step up besides just Ogletree to give defenses something to think about, and I think Koch and Green succeeded there. Dontrelle Inman had a nice catch too, which you won't see on the scoresheet because he landed out of bounds. Although, if he had done a better job of getting open, maybe the catch would be on the scoresheet after all.
None of that is the real silver lining, though. The real silver lining is the giant donkey shit half the rest of the ACC took this week as well. Clemson got steamrolled, and coincidentally, open season on Tommy Bowden began at about 11 PM last night. Tech got hoist with their own petard by ECU, though I really think their defense was all set to lose that game even if that punt hadn't been blocked. UNC struggled to beat I-AA McNeese State, though in fairness McNeese is not a bad team, having reeled off 11 straight wins to start last season. Maryland had similar troubles with Delaware. NC State (a team that it is most unfortunate we do not play this year) gave the hell up somewhere in the third quarter and got completely shut out.
So I dunno. I'd like to think that maybe USC is just so good that we can't really judge on that game. But hell, man, are we a BCS-conference team or what? (Though after the ACC's performance this week, some may question that.) I don't think anyone really expected to win. I also don't think anyone expected to lose by 45. I hate it when everyone says we're gonna be a bad team and then they turn out right. Hopefully the team hasn't forgotten their bounce-back lessons from last year.
Friday, August 29, 2008
game preview: USC
TV: ABC or ESPN2
History against the Trojans: 0-0
Last matchup: Never
Team records: UVA 0-0 (0-0), USC 0-0 (0-0)
History against the Trojans: 0-0
Last matchup: Never
Team records: UVA 0-0 (0-0), USC 0-0 (0-0)
Last week: N/A
Line: USC by 19.5
USC season preview here.
Injury list (as printed at the Good Ol’ Blog)
OUT:
LB John Bivens
DE Sean Gottschalk
WR Staton Jobe
DOUBTFUL:
CB Ras-I Dowling
WR Matt Snyder
QUESTIONABLE:
WR Maurice Covington
OG Austin Pasztor
TE Joe Torchia
PROBABLE:
OT Landon Bradley
DE Kevin Crawford
WR Dontrelle Inman
QB Peter Lalich
CB Chase Minnifield
RB Hall Simmons
S Brandon Woods
Been waiting for this one for a while, oh yes. Ever since the USC home-and-home series was announced and the schedule set, August 30 was circled on the calendars of many a Wahoo fan. Al Groh, never one to hand out a lot of information when a just a little would do (and none at all would do even better) has managed to increase the anticipation in probably the only way possible: by not naming a starting quarterback. The competition has been three ways, between Peter Lalich, Scott Deke, and Marc Verica. Verica is the one who people don’t place good odds on, which is as good a reason as any to think he’ll get the start after all.
One thing that’s fun about being both a UVA fan and a Michigan fan is you get to see both sides of the equation. At Michigan, you pretty much expect to win every game, and you rarely, if ever, are pleased with putting up a good fight. At UVA, we sometimes see the flip side of that coin, and this is one of those games. The expectation is that we’ll lose and lose badly. We are the hanging slider, and they are the bat. But there’s almost always an upset to start the season. Why not us?
HOW WE CAN WIN
- USC has bigger fish to fry. After they fly out of Charlottesville, they are going to be getting ready for the biggest non-conference game in the country this year, when Ohio State comes to visit them. Nobody ever says they are overlooking their next opponent, but don’t kid yourself that a part of their minds aren’t already on how to beat one of the only teams in the land considered their equal.
- On the field, the answer is exactly the same as, “What can we do so as not to have a coach-firing record of 3-9?” Good offensive line play. Wide receiver other than Ogletree emerges as a threat. Defense keeps the scores low and the team in the game. It would also be really, really nice if whoever plays quarterback does well enough that Groh won't feel compelled to turn the position into a merry-go-round, because he's been shown to have an itchy trigger finger when it comes to his quarterbacks. Multiply those by a factor of 10 and you have your answer to beating USC. If their defense has a weakness it’s best stated as “hey, that guy lining up on the weak side isn’t quite as much of a holy terror as the rest of them so let’s take our chances over there.”
- The defense has to be perfect, and probably score at least once. USC’s offense is the beatable half of their game, though to be honest the questions are much more along the lines of wondering if it’s good enough for the BCS title game, not the Arizona game. But like us, they have a new quarterback, and as a small bonus, he missed a big chunk of fall practice. The receivers are moderately suspect, but again, can they perform against Washington State? is not what keeps their coaches up at night.
- Finally, USC has to either have a bad day or be not as good as advertised. Let’s face it – our A game is not good enough to beat theirs, nor probably even their B-minus game. USC has to play significantly worse than they should. See first bullet.
HOW WE CAN LOSE
- Things transpire as they should.
HOW THE GAME WILL GO
Think defense. It’s the strength of both teams. Many predictions have us failing to score even a single touchdown, with scores like 23-6 and 28-3 being the order of the day. May not be too far off. Our defense, especially at linebacker, is good enough to give Pete Carroll’s boys some fits. If Ras-I Dowling can play, so much the better, because the Trojans have some big receivers and Ras the Destroyer has five inches on Hall. What UVA fans should focus on is the defense, because USC’s defense is pretty good and it won’t tell us much other than “USC’s defense is pretty good” if we can’t score. But if USC’s offense can be held to a reasonably low score, it will bode very well for our ACC schedule.
QUOTABLE
“They’re not better than our defense. We’ve got the best defense I’m ever going to play against. … Their defense is nothing compared to ours.” – USC RB C.J. Gable, who I knew had hurt his hip and ankle but didn’t realize his brain-to-mouth filter was sprained.
USC BLOGS:
Line: USC by 19.5
USC season preview here.
Injury list (as printed at the Good Ol’ Blog)
OUT:
LB John Bivens
DE Sean Gottschalk
WR Staton Jobe
DOUBTFUL:
CB Ras-I Dowling
WR Matt Snyder
QUESTIONABLE:
WR Maurice Covington
OG Austin Pasztor
TE Joe Torchia
PROBABLE:
OT Landon Bradley
DE Kevin Crawford
WR Dontrelle Inman
QB Peter Lalich
CB Chase Minnifield
RB Hall Simmons
S Brandon Woods
Been waiting for this one for a while, oh yes. Ever since the USC home-and-home series was announced and the schedule set, August 30 was circled on the calendars of many a Wahoo fan. Al Groh, never one to hand out a lot of information when a just a little would do (and none at all would do even better) has managed to increase the anticipation in probably the only way possible: by not naming a starting quarterback. The competition has been three ways, between Peter Lalich, Scott Deke, and Marc Verica. Verica is the one who people don’t place good odds on, which is as good a reason as any to think he’ll get the start after all.
One thing that’s fun about being both a UVA fan and a Michigan fan is you get to see both sides of the equation. At Michigan, you pretty much expect to win every game, and you rarely, if ever, are pleased with putting up a good fight. At UVA, we sometimes see the flip side of that coin, and this is one of those games. The expectation is that we’ll lose and lose badly. We are the hanging slider, and they are the bat. But there’s almost always an upset to start the season. Why not us?
HOW WE CAN WIN
- USC has bigger fish to fry. After they fly out of Charlottesville, they are going to be getting ready for the biggest non-conference game in the country this year, when Ohio State comes to visit them. Nobody ever says they are overlooking their next opponent, but don’t kid yourself that a part of their minds aren’t already on how to beat one of the only teams in the land considered their equal.
- On the field, the answer is exactly the same as, “What can we do so as not to have a coach-firing record of 3-9?” Good offensive line play. Wide receiver other than Ogletree emerges as a threat. Defense keeps the scores low and the team in the game. It would also be really, really nice if whoever plays quarterback does well enough that Groh won't feel compelled to turn the position into a merry-go-round, because he's been shown to have an itchy trigger finger when it comes to his quarterbacks. Multiply those by a factor of 10 and you have your answer to beating USC. If their defense has a weakness it’s best stated as “hey, that guy lining up on the weak side isn’t quite as much of a holy terror as the rest of them so let’s take our chances over there.”
- The defense has to be perfect, and probably score at least once. USC’s offense is the beatable half of their game, though to be honest the questions are much more along the lines of wondering if it’s good enough for the BCS title game, not the Arizona game. But like us, they have a new quarterback, and as a small bonus, he missed a big chunk of fall practice. The receivers are moderately suspect, but again, can they perform against Washington State? is not what keeps their coaches up at night.
- Finally, USC has to either have a bad day or be not as good as advertised. Let’s face it – our A game is not good enough to beat theirs, nor probably even their B-minus game. USC has to play significantly worse than they should. See first bullet.
HOW WE CAN LOSE
- Things transpire as they should.
HOW THE GAME WILL GO
Think defense. It’s the strength of both teams. Many predictions have us failing to score even a single touchdown, with scores like 23-6 and 28-3 being the order of the day. May not be too far off. Our defense, especially at linebacker, is good enough to give Pete Carroll’s boys some fits. If Ras-I Dowling can play, so much the better, because the Trojans have some big receivers and Ras the Destroyer has five inches on Hall. What UVA fans should focus on is the defense, because USC’s defense is pretty good and it won’t tell us much other than “USC’s defense is pretty good” if we can’t score. But if USC’s offense can be held to a reasonably low score, it will bode very well for our ACC schedule.
QUOTABLE
“They’re not better than our defense. We’ve got the best defense I’m ever going to play against. … Their defense is nothing compared to ours.” – USC RB C.J. Gable, who I knew had hurt his hip and ankle but didn’t realize his brain-to-mouth filter was sprained.
USC BLOGS:
REST OF THE ACC
A lot of teams already played on Thursday. Most of them dutifully trounced their cotton candy openers, but NC State opened by crapping the bed against an SEC opponent.
Wake Forest 41, Baylor 13 (Th.)
Miami 52, Charleston Southern 7 (Th.)
Georgia Tech 41, Jacksonville State 14 (Th.)
South Carolina 34, North Carolina State 0 (Th.)
Virginia Tech @ East Carolina, 12:00 PM
Delaware @ Maryland, 3:45 PM
McNeese State @ North Carolina, 6:00 PM
James Madison @ Duke, 7:00 PM
Boston College @ Kent State, 7:30 PM
Alabama @ Clemson, 8:00 PM
Florida State off
**Apologies for the lateness. I'd intended to have this up much sooner, but this post was written under the influence of very strong drugs (apparently Tylenol has found a way to cram four different medicines into one not-that-big pill) which are working wonders to fight off this scourge of a cold I came down with just last night. This post has been brought to you by Johnson & Johnson. Recruiting board update will come on Monday.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
season preview: USC
First preview of a non-ACC team. USC, obviously, is first on the schedule, making them first up. Somewhat abbreviated from the rest of them, and missing some bells and whistles, this is only intended to familiarize you a little bit with these other teams we'll be facing.
Schedule:
8/30: @Virginia
9/13: Ohio State
9/25: @Oregon State (Th.)
10/4: Oregon
10/11: Arizona State
10/18: @Washington State
10/25: @Arizona
11/1: Washington
11/8: California
11/15: @Stanford
11/29: Notre Dame
12/6: @UCLA
Projected starters:
QB: Mark Sanchez (rJr.)
FB: Stanley Havili (rSo.)
RB: Joe McKnight (So.)
WR: Patrick Turner (Sr.)
WR: Vidal Hazelton (Jr.)
TE: Anthony McCoy (Jr.)
LT: Charles Brown (rJr.)
LG: Jeff Byers (5Sr.)
C: Kristofer O’Dowd (So.)
RG: Zack Heberer (rSo.)
RT: Alex Parsons (Jr.)
DE: Kyle Moore (Sr.)
NT: Averell Spicer (rJr.)
DT: Fili Moala (5Sr.)
DE: Clay Matthews (5Sr.)
SLB: Brian Cushing (Sr.)
MLB: Rey Maualuga (Sr.)
WLB: Luthur Brown (rJr.)
CB: Cary Harris (Sr.)
FS: Taylor Mays (Jr.)
SS: Kevin Ellison (Sr.)
CB: Shareece Wright (Jr.)
K: David Buehler (Sr.)
P: Greg Woidneck (5Sr.)
Coach: Pete Carroll (8th season)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Yeah, in case you’re wondering, Mark Sanchez is back in action and will probably play against us in the opener. Like all USC quarterbacks, nice glowy things are said about him, half of which are rooted in the insanely high recruiting rankings he got and half of which are because he’s on USC and therefore has got to probably be pretty good, probably. Sanchez got three starts last year filling in for John David Booty, and the results were mixed. He did quite well against Notre Dame, throwing four touchdown passes. On the other hand, everyone did pretty well against Notre Dame. Sanchez’s two other games were forgettable, both including two picks and the last being a loss to Oregon.
Joe McKnight, even more of a mega-recruit than Sanchez, will be doing most of the rock-toting this year. He, too, has been slowed by injury during practice, but it’s only a hyperextended elbow – having done that to my own fool self once, I’m pretty confident he’ll be back in action in days rather than weeks. So the coming-out party that is expected of him this year is not likely to be delayed.
Sanchez will need someone to step up if he’s going to have anyone to throw to; the Trojan wide receivers are, by Trojan standards, pretty lackluster. TE Fred Davis led the team in all major receiving categories last year – he’s gone, leaving Anthony McCoy to pick up the slack. McCoy caught all of two balls last year, so the slack is really gonna have to be picked up by Patrick Turner and Vidal Hazelton. They’re talented guys and last year was really their first as the regular receiving corps, and Turner in particular is a big dude at 6’5”, so last year’s question mark may be a strength.
The new question mark may be the line, then. Four new starters are being broken in, including a true sophomore at center (Kristofer O’Dowd.) No matter how talented they are (and this is USC, so they are plenty talented), there will be some growing pains as they sort out communication issues and all those other things that make coaches worry at night when they must play something less experienced than 5 fifth-year seniors.
DEFENSE
This is where the Trojans shake their moneymakers. Running on USC last year earned you just over 2.5 yards per carry, and who doesn’t love second and seven? The line is the shakiest – if you can call it that – part of the defense, and the only position where Pete Carroll expresses any concern is nose tackle. Kyle Moore and Fili Moala are returning starters, and DE Clay Matthews can also drop back and play any linebacker spot, which is important because Brian Cushing and Rey Maualuga (the thong guy) are supremely talented and supremely accompished but spend more time at the trainers’ table than would be ideal.
Speaking of linebackers Cushing and Maualuga, they’re nasty. You think we got some good ones? USC’s got some good ones. Maualuga’s been a starter for two years, first team all-Pac-10 for both of them. His stats aren’t especially gaudy, but the stats of the defense that he now leads don’t lie. Cushing missed three games in 2007 and still managed to be given an honorable mention for all-conference.
The secondary is even scarier. S Kevin Ellison was a first-team all-Pac-10 player. His counterpart Taylor Mays was a mere honorable mention, which seems silly because he also made various and sundry all-American teams, including the AP third team. USC probably does not care which is better as long as they continue to make it miserable as hell to throw against them.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Both K David Buehler and P Greg Woidneck are returning as starters, and are solid. USC gushes a little bit overmuch with praise for Buehler – there are a few better kickers in the ACC alone – but regardless, he makes most of his kicks, more than a lot of kickers around the country can say.
OUTLOOK
It’s USC. As usual, it’s generally front-page stuff whenever they lose. Not gonna be any different this season. The early part of their schedule is murder, with that opening game at some East Coast venue somewhere, followed by a visit from Ohio State. Three out of their first five games are against currently ranked teams – but all three games are at home, and with two weeks before OSU and about 10 days in between each of the Oregon teams, USC has maximum preparation time right when they need it. If they lost two games it’d be more surprising than if they went undefeated and played for a national title.
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