weekend review

I think we learned two simple things this Saturday: How far we've come, and how far we have to go.  Dare we say, the Hoos looked better losing this weekend than they did beating BYU last year.  That's a very offense-centric point of view (the defense was a little less than completely suffocating), but then, we've long known what has to get better before anything good can happen.

Had UVA pulled that one off, it might well have been fair for the front office to start planning those postseason mailers.  Kent State shouldn't be an obstacle (I reiterate my stance from last year: they're the kind of team that if you can't beat them, you're not talking postseason anyway) and the way the Coastal is, two wins in six tries should be eminently doable.  Now it's three wins in six tries.

That's still a doable mission.  Most of these teams have gaping, exploitable holes.  So do we, and teams will take advantage, but UVA is showing the ability to return the favor.  We'll get what should be a nice simple week from a pretty lousy Kent State team, and then every game from then on out will hold our interest in a vise grip, because there's a lot of future riding on every single one.

Points in brief:

-- I'm not, like, pissing mad about the referee's call on the fourth-down fumble, even though it's one they don't usually make.  I mean, hang on to the ball and don't give 'em the chance, you know?  But since when is the left tackle allowed to "shift" his way three yards downfield before the snap?  C'mon man.

-- It's really nice to have reliable placekicking again.  Ian Frye might be the best kicker at UVA since Chris Gould.

-- Four games into the season and I have yet to complain about clock management.

-- No, I don't think the play of Matt Johns sparks - or should spark - yet another QB controversy.  Lambert was clearly the guy before he twinged his ankle, and it sure looks like there was no intent at all to play Johns. (That said, Johns is good enough that there was no real urgency to force Lambert back into the game and risk re-injury.)  Johns played against a lot softer of a BYU defense, one clearly willing to trade yardage for time.

Prediction review:

- At least 75% of UVA's offensive yardage is through the air.  First of all, lemme just point out that 519 yards is pretty outstanding.  Some of that was that bendier defense, but you'd have to be blind to miss the improvement in the offense this week.  Secondly, before declaring that UVA's run game was going to be the same three-yard slog all season, I should've remembered what happened last year.  That was when I was giving Steve Fairchild credit for scheming Kevin Parks's 1,000 yards into existence, and that's borne out in the stats; even though the results were getting worse and worse, Parks's running improved in the second half.  This year, it may be that Fairchild's schemes are coming into play earlier, which would be a big plus given that we don't have much of a prayer of simply blowing holes in D-lines.  Anyway, the pass accounted for about 63% of the yardage - well within the bounds of reasonable balance and the result not of a worse passing game than expected, but a better run game.

- Greyson Lambert has a season (and career) high in pass attempts.  He did, even despite his early departure.

- Kevin Parks has at least 75% of UVA's rushing yards.  Parks was only the third-best back this week, behind Lambert and Khalek Shepherd.

- Both Hill and Williams get at least half a yard less per carry than their season average.  Taysom Hill was held reasonably in check, but a huge part of the reason for the loss was Jamaal Williams running a bit freer than he should've.

- Hill doesn't complete 60% of his passes.  Hill was held to 56%.

Going 2 for 5 is not too bad.  If I can get 40% on the season that's pretty good, considering the nature of these predictions.  Here's my stats for the year so far:

7-for-18 on specifics (38.9%)
2-1 straight up
1-1 ATS

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Senior Seasons next, in which we track the progess of our verbals across the Friday night lights of autumn:

Hun School 56, Wyoming Seminary 14: Chris Sharp had a big game with 149 yards rushing, 57 yards receiving, and three touchdowns, one through the air.  Hun is 1-0.

Bedford 50, Greater Johnstown 36: Kareem Gibson returned a kickoff 98 yards for a touchdown, but it wasn't enough in the loss.  Johnstown is 3-1.

Gonzaga 51, McKinley Tech 0: Nick Johns threw a pair of touchdowns in the rout, and somehow was only 6-for-9 despite there being 7 receptions in the box score.  I should've known better than to trust a box score with "wiki" in the URL.  I'll buy the two touchdowns, but there's no way you score 51 points and your quarterback throws the ball nine times.  Anyway, Gonzaga is 4-0, and has a showdown with Good Counsel next week.

Sherando 24, Kettle Run 7: David Eldridge had seven catches for 75 yards.  Kettle Run is 1-2.

Altavista 56, Galax 7: Juan Thornhill accounted for four touchdowns - three rushing and one passing.  Altavista is 3-0.

Venice 30, Charlotte 6 (Grant Polk) - Charlotte is 2-1.
Buford 42, White County 10 (David Curry) - Buford is 5-0.
Manasquan 15, Monmouth 6 (Tanner Cowley) - Manasquan is 1-1.
Lakota West 27, Middletown 24 (C.J. Stalker) - Lakota West is 2-2.
Cathedral Prep 51, DuBois 21 (James Trucilla) - Cathedral Prep is 4-0.
Plymouth-Whitemarsh 34, Upper Merion 10 (Ryan Bischoff) - P-W is 2-2.
G. Washington 14, Phila. Northeast 12 (Gladimir Paul) - Northeast is 0-4.
South Aiken 16, Strom Thurmond 13 (Rasool Clemons) - South Aiken is 2-2.
Gilman 20, Good Counsel 0 (Myles Robinson) - OLGC is 3-1.
Woodrow Wilson 27, Surrattsville 20 (Kareem McDonald) - Wilson is 2-2.
Patrick Henry 17, Lee-Davis 14 (Eli Hanback) - Patrick Henry is 1-2.
Liberty 44, Mountain View 7 (R.J. Proctor) - Liberty is 3-0.
Hickory 42, Deep Creek 9 (Richard Burney) - Hickory is 1-2.
Ocean Lakes 45, Green Run 10 (Jahvoni Simmons) - Ocean Lakes is 3-0.

game preview: Brigham Young

Date/Time: Saturday, September 20; 3:30

TV: ESPN

Record against the Cougars: 3-1

Last meeting: UVA 19, BYU 16; 8/31/13, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA 23, UL 21; BYU 33, UH 25

Line: BYU by 15

Injury report: N/A

Last year's win set a great tone for the season: very solid defense and enough capitalizing on opponent mistakes to come away with a win.  Afterwards, of course: thbpt.  Winning that game led our thoughts completely astray, and it was two more months before the ugly truth truly sank in.  This year, the positive feelings from a win are a lot less likely to be phony; it's the last win that left a nagging doubt, but that can be washed away by doing it again.

-- UVA run offense vs. BYU run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 52 carries, 173 yards, 3.7 ypc, 1 TD
Taquan Mizzell: 22 carries, 87 yards, 4.0 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
130.33 yards/game, 3.29 yards/attempt
108th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

BYU defense:
54.33 yards/game, 2.06 yards/attempt
5th of 128 (national)

At this point it's getting hard to hope that the run game will be anything more than what it is: a marginally competent attack that has moments every now and then, but won't work with the consistency a good offense demands.  Counter plays are unusually effective, which I think is because the defense gets more penetration than it should and finds itself hard-pressed to catch up to the running back going the other way.  Otherwise, most of the yards seem to come from Kevin Parks's churning thunder-thighs, which are effective at clearing out a 3-yard gain after initial contact at the line of scrimmage.

The Louisville game didn't inspire in me a lot of confidence that the performance was repeatable, and the run game is why.  UVA failed to take advantage of a number of tremendous opportunities.  In order to take advantage of really good field position you have to run the ball, because the defense has less pass-game area to cover.  Misdirection works on your own 30, much less so on the other guy's 10.  UVA was only about 50% effective in the red zone.  (Don't buy it when they count a field goal like they always do.  Getting a field goal in one try isn't 100% effectiveness, it's 42.9%.)  That's got to improve.

This is a really hard game to make that happen.  BYU started their game last week with a safety on a Houston run play and crushed the UH run game all day; they ended up allowing 10 yards on 13 tries.  Neither UConn nor Texas fared very well either.  The efforts on defense are led by linebacker Zac Stout and safety Craig Bills.  The funny thing is that the Cougars aren't doing it by repeatedly slicing into the backfield; they're just very stout at the line and they specialize in the 1-yard gain.

This section of the matchup is our worst against their best, and it's a significant disadvantage for the Hoos.  I don't see Taquan Mizzell being a factor at all; any yards UVA can scrape out will mostly be after contact, which means Parks falling forward is most of the running game.

-- UVA pass offense vs. BYU pass defense

Quarterback:
Greyson Lambert: 42/62, 67.7%; 376 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs; 6.07 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 14 rec., 52 yards, 0 TDs
Canaan Severin: 11 rec., 107 yards, 2 TDs
Darius Jennings: 8 rec., 149 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
203.3 yards/game, 6.22 yards/attempt
92nd of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

BYU defense:
258.3 yards/game, 5.87 yards/attempt
25th of 128 (national)

The likely anemia produced by the running game means Greyson Lambert will have to be really sharp, and bolder than he has been so far.  I say Lambert even though there's the ubiquitous OR sitting on the depth chart still; I've decided I think that's either London's idea of a smokescreen for the BYU DC, or him being unwilling to send the message to Matt Johns that he's fallen back to second string officially.  Either way, I think Lambert is the man; Johns may get a series or two, but no more.

The biggest threat on BYU's defense is, again, the experienced free safety Craig Bills.  Linebackers Alani Fua and Bronson Kaufusi are the pass-rushing threats; no lineman in BYU's 3-4 defense has a sack, but Kaufusi is a converted DE and the weakside linebacker, so he's a pass-rushing type even with the position switch.  BYU's corners aren't overly aggressive, which provides a possible opportunity for the short passing game that Steve Fairchild seems to favor.

The guess here is that UVA gets the vast majority of its yards through the air.  BYU's pass defense isn't bad, but the offenses that they've stopped aren't particularly competent.  Eyebrow-raising as it sounds, UVA will have the best pass offense the Cougars have faced, which is mainly a stinging indictment of said previous opponents.  (They aren't much good at the run either, but they're at least better.)  BYU's run defense is legit, but the pass defense needs more of a test before anyone can make that declaration, so in that regard, there's an opening for Lambert.

-- BYU run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Taysom Hill: 62 carries, 356 yards, 5.7 ypc, 6 TDs
Jamaal Williams: 47 carries, 228 yards, 4.9 ypc, 2 TDs

BYU offense:
258.67 yards/game, 4.88 yards/attempt
48th of 128 (national)

UVA defense:
84.67 yards/game, 2.62 yards/attempt
16th of 128 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

Last year I wrote that Jamaal Williams was the focus of the run game, but that their new quarterback Taysom Hill would be asked to carry the ball a lot.  That wasn't wrong, but since then, the roles have flipped; Hill blossomed as a runner last year, piling up over 1,300 yards on the ground.  Hill is the primary ballcarrier; Williams, the change of pace.  There are spot carries available for a few other players, but Hill and Williams are basically it.

Hill is right back at it this year, with no fewer than 97 yards in each of his first three games, and 160 against Houston.  Williams didn't play against UConn, but ran for 139 yards of his own in the UH game.  These are not bad run defenses that BYU has played, either; they've all allowed about 3.5 yards a carry this year, but more to BYU.

So this is the most interesting matchup of the game.  Even if they haven't played schmos so far, UVA is a clear step up from anything BYU has seen.  Eli Harold is one defensive end who can consistently chase down Hill, and of course I'm not missing any chances this year to talk up the linebackers.  Daquan Romero should play a big role in this one, as UVA's primary outside 'backer.  I won't go so far as to say this is the matchup that decides the game, because actually it'll probably be more of a stalemate.  The respective air games will decide.  But it's UVA's tremendous run defense that gives us the chance to let that happen.

-- BYU pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Taysom Hill: 67/98, 68.4%; 689 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs; 7.03 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jordan Leslie: 15 rec., 186 yards, 0 TDs
Mitch Mathews: 13 rec., 108 yards, 2 TDs
Algernon Brown: 8 rec., 84 yards, 0 TDs

BYU offense:
229.7 yards/game, 7.03 yards/game
75th of 128 (national)

UVA defense:
269.3 yards/game, 6.52 yards/attempt
50th of 108 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

Hill, last year, was what you expect from a new dual-threat starter: pretty inaccurate.  He's fixed up that aspect of his game pretty nicely, with a completion rate over 2/3; it's partly due to maturity and partly due to a lot of turnover among the receiving corps, which in turn has led to shorter, safer passes.  BYU won't be looking to bomb it downfield, and their receivers look a lot like ours, which is to say, big.

The top receivers, Jordan Leslie and Mitch Mathews, stand 6'3 and 6'6", respectively.  Terenn Houk is 6'5"; he's got six catches this year.  With size like that, the tight ends aren't a big part of the BYU's passing game.  The guys who are, though, are the backup running backs.  Jamaal Williams only does a minimal amount of pass-catching; spotting another running back in the game is a little bit of a tip that a pass to them is coming.

UVA's pass defense is pretty average - if the receivers get the ball.  Hill will do a lot of passing outside the pocket, but he's only 6'2" - when he does stand in the pocket, expect UVA's linemen to start thinking bat-down.  And obviously, UVA has to be aware of the scramble.  The Hoos have plenty of sacks, but they've also been maddeningly proficient at letting QBs slip away.  Hill is one of the slitheriest quarterbacks UVA will see all season, and simply grabbing at him won't bring him down.

It could be a little dangerous for UVA for that reason; the Hoos thrive on pressure, but Hill is hard to pin down that way.  It won't always be the first wave that gets him.  UVA needs to bring a second wave and be sticky in coverage - both much easier said than done for an offense that wants to get rid of the ball quick.  Secondary play will be huge, to keep BYU from succeeding with quick hitters, and to try and nullify the height their receivers bring.

-- Favorability ratings

- UVA run offense: 1.5
- UVA pass offense: 4.5
- UVA run defense: 6.5
- UVA pass defense: 5

Average: 4.38

-- Outlook

One of the tougher games UVA will play the rest of the way.  I'm not going to freak out about the altitude - it's about 4,500 feet, which isn't high enough to have our guys sucking wind in the second quarter.  What worries me is style.  Yes, the Hoos shut down running QB Brett Hundley of UCLA, but Hundley isn't very fast; Hill is faster, and BYU is a less conventional offense overall.  Don't get me wrong - our defense is also unlike anything BYU has seen.

But if winning means just barely converting on all sorts of golden chances the way Louisville served them up, I don't like our odds on the road against a team at least as good as the Cardinals are.  UVA won't be able to run, which means if we're going to see a win, Lambert must have the best game of his career.

-- Predictions

- At least 75% of UVA's offensive yardage is through the air.

- Greyson Lambert has a season (and career) high in pass attempts.

- Kevin Parks has at least 75% of UVA's rushing yards.

- Both Hill and Williams get at least half a yard less per carry than their season average.

- Hill doesn't complete 60% of his passes.

Final score: BYU 23, UVA 16

-- Rest of the ACC

Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech, 12:00 - If GT is as bad as I think they are, and VT is as pissed off as they should be, then you can take VT giving eight points as the lock of the week.

Pittsburgh vs. Iowa, 12:00 - Steel meets corn.  The unfortunate thing for Pitt, though, is that Iowa - whose uniforms were purposely modeled after the Steelers - will look right at home in Heinz Field.

Syracuse vs. Maryland, 12:30 - Another chance to serenade the Terps with a nice little ACC chant.  But win the game first.

Duke vs. Tulane, 12:30 - Two of the South's best schools.

Boston College vs. Maine, 1:00 - Maine's two games this year: a 10-6 win and a 13-10 loss.  Woo offense.

Louisville @ Florida Int'l, 3:30 - Our new ACC members (looking at Pitt, too) have got to learn about life in the penthouse: you can make FIU visit you now.

Wake Forest vs. Army, 3:30 - Wake's last real chance at a win this year.

North Carolina @ East Carolina, 3:30 - ECU has a chance to really be a UVA fan's second-favorite team.

NC State vs. Presbyterian, 6:00 - NC State finishes off one of the weeniest OOC schedules in recent memory.

Miami @ Nebraska, 8:00 - Remember when this game would've been positively titanic?  Also remember when it would've been called Canevicts vs. Cornvicts?

Clemson @ Florida State, 8:00 - The FHRITP that changed the world - or at least, the ACC race.

it's a start

And 1-0 is better than 0-1.  They called it winning ugly, but it's not our fault the game was played underneath a waterfall.  (And really, it was Andrea Adelson calling it ugly.  Adelson is worse than Heather Dinich when it comes to being a haterz.  One of the dumbest things I've ever seen written was a backhanded compliment in which Adelson declared that UVA's defense "found the toughness it had been lacking last season."  Our defense was pretty good last season, minus a few turnovers; Adelson didn't look any farther than the 4-8 record for that line of BS.)

Ugly, anyway, is what they call it when you win with defense and not much offense.  That much, at least, is true.  The running backs mustered barely three yards a carry and nothing longer than 13, and David Watford got very little help from his receivers.  Breaking in a new offense is hard.

Which also made the defensive performance open to interpretation.  Let's face it, you can't just roll up to the field with a brand-new hurry-up offense in hand and expect it all to go beautifully.  BYU's execution was inconsistent, no surprise for a team used to doing things very differently.

But listen to me sound like the haterz.  That's not my job.  First of all, BYU is consistently a good team, and they didn't just stop being a good team this year.  Bronco Mendenhall has never failed to take BYU to a bowl game in his eight years on the job.  They might have a tough time going this year, but they certainly can get there.  Regardless, they're a team that has always commanded respect. 

And what were the reasons for 4-8 and no bowl game last year?  Special teams, turnovers, and the quarterback platoon, I'd say should be the top three reasons.  What happened this weekend?  Special teams shined, there were two huge turnovers (I count the safety here) and one quarterback took all the snaps.  Well how about that.

I said that of the games against BYU, GT, Miami, and VT, we most likely had to win half to go bowling.  So even though we're one game into the season, we're halfway there.  Hard to top that.

Other more specific game notes:

-- Watford's performance was pretty meh, but the numbers make it look worse than it was; with generally good protection and enough scrambling to buy time when necessary, there ought to have been far more open receivers than there were.  Some of this might have been due to inexperience at reading the scene, and honestly I have no way of knowing how much that played a role.  But let's not kid ourselves: the receivers were way below expectations.  Tim Smith dropped two tough but catchable balls on the opening drive alone.

-- It would also have helped if Fairchild had been much more relentless in pounding the WR screen to take advantage of the absurd cushions the BYU cornerbacks were allowing.

-- Overall, I think you have to ignore that the defense was facing a revamped offense, and then you see a lot of great plays.  Not even counting the safety, which was more a crappy BYU play than a great UVA one, or Ant Harris's pick.  I look at the first quarter: Maurice Canady makes a really nice pass breakup, and then DreQuan Hoskey informs us that the cornerback competition is real and makes an even better one on the very next play.  (Hoskey anticipated the slant - he couldn't have made such a quick break unless he was selling out and assuming a third-down slant - and popped the ball free to force a punt.  Great instincts and great speed on that play.)

-- Stars abound on the defense.  Eli Harold made a mess in the backfield.  Harris did everything.  And Daquan Romero looks a lot like the star linebacker I've been expecting.

-- Kyle Van Noy: Not impressed.  A gambling style leads to a lot of his TFL, and Watford broke a Van Noy tackle attempt and turned a TFL into a first down.  If his foray into the backfield doesn't bear fruit and the play isn't near him, he's a ghost.

-- A 53-yard field goal - in sort of a pressure situation, actually, with less than ideal footing - gives me a world of confidence in the future of the kicking game.

-- This has nothing to do with the game, but I'm a little disappointed that SB Nation let the Blogpoll go by the wayside this year.  Asking for a spot in the Blogpoll when I'd been writing for like two months (it had put a call out for more ACC membership) is the main reason I have any readership in the first place.  I might do a top-25 this year anyway.

Prediction roundup!

-- Khalek Shepherd and Taquan Mizzell split carries and targets in the first half, but as the game goes on, one or the other takes a back seat.  Hard to say what to make of it.  They did indeed split the work in the first half; essentially, both took a back seat in the second.  I'm giving myself credit for this one; the idea was that the coaches, in a close game, would roll with the guy they felt most comfortable with.  That turned out to be Kevin Parks.

-- Dominique Terrell has a huge day, to the tune of at least six catches.  Terrell had one, and the receivers overall were a major, major disappointment.  Only Darius Jennings had more than two catches, and his average was less than nine yards a catch.  Good receiver play could've made this a fairly easy win.

-- The run offense generates about 3.5 yards per carry from the primary backs.  It was about 3.09, which is close but not enough for me to take credit here.

-- If Taysom Hill rushes for 90+ yards, BYU wins.  I didn't go with the flipside and say fewer than 90 means a loss, so this prediction is null - neither a win nor a loss.  However, it's fair to point out that I wrote this: "UVA can win if [Jamaal] Williams gets his yards, but they can't let Hill burn them with his feet."  Williams had 148 yards and Hill did not burn UVA with his feet, and that put UVA in position to win.

-- Hill will average no more than 11.5 yards a completion, but rack up over 250 yards passing.  Hill's completion average was better than that and his total yards were worse.  The first part is not fair, though; 52 of his 175 yards came on the last play of the game with UVA justifiably in a full-prevent defense, and very smartly not contesting the catch but simply ensuring they wrapped up the receiver after the completion.  So I hit that one pretty well.  If the second half had been right, I'd count it.  Halfway doesn't count, though; Hill's passing was much less efficient than I though, and the UVA secondary did a great job making it so.

-- The first team to go up by two scores wins. Killer instinct.  Another null prediction; nobody did this.  The biggest lead of the game was UVA's 12-7 advantage after the safety.  That's not two scores.

That makes for an opening performance of 1-of-4, not to mention 0-1, 0-1 ATS to start the year.  Like David Watford's numbers, though, I think the numbers look worse than the actual performance.  I called for a close, low-scoring game, and that's what we got.  Many of my general instincts were spot-on.  Next week we'll work on translating that to the stat sheet.

Notes from around the rest of the ACC:

-- Part of the reason I'm feeling so high on my prognostication skills is that the FSU-Pitt game played out exactly as expected.  Jameis Winston is the latest media darling, and he did have a tremendous game (25-for-27!) but Pitt is probably just exactly what I said they were.  The main difference: they were supposed to have a pretty good secondary.

-- Logan Thomas's performance is hilarious.  5-for-26 with a pick.  That's a sight to behold.  Except for one lightning strike - a 77-yard TD run by Trey Edmunds - VT's offense is also the shitshow I thought they'd be.  Yes, yes, granted: Alabama.  They make a lot of offenses look like shitshows.  Still: the lightning strike and a Kyle Fuller interception (giving Tech the ball in Alabama territory, which they only converted to a field goal) are the only thing that made that game look like anything but a blowout.

-- Helluva nice job by Clemson.

-- Against Villanova, Boston College didn't look like the surprise bowl team I said they were.

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Further weekend-review type stuff occurs tomorrow, and this week I want to also squeeze in a recruiting profile on UVA's basketball commitment, Isaiah Wilkins.

game preview: Brigham Young

Date/Time: Saturday, August 31; 3:30

TV: ESPNUVA

Record against the Cougars: 2-1

Last meeting: BYU 38, UVA 35; 9/2/00, Charlottesville

Last weekend: N/A

Line: BYU by 1

Injury report: N/A

Ah, football.  BYU is a very special team in my heart because they introduced me to the rest of my life as a UVA fan by pulling off a big comeback and then winning in overtime in my first-ever UVA football game.  It didn't take long for my friend (who'd come with me to UVA from our Michigan high school) and I to decide that this was going to be just like rooting for the Lions.  (And that was before they'd ever hired Matt Millen.)  Just an early, primitive way of saying We Can't Have Nice Things.

This game ought to set the tone nicely for the season.  No guessing about what a 30-point win over Richmond means; we'll get a pretty good idea at least of what the next six or seven weeks will look like by how this game goes.

-- UVA run offense vs. BYU run defense

(all stats 2012)

Top backs:

Kevin Parks: 160 carries, 734 yards, 4.6 ypc, 5 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 19 carries, 122 yards, 6.4 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:

128.5 yards/game, 3.70 yards/attempt
95th of 124 (national); 8th of 12 (ACC)

BYU defense:

86.92 yards/game, 2.74 yards/attempt
3rd of 124 (national)

So, those stats from last year already present a difficulty.  One thing we know (or at least, believe) is that the O-line hasn't suddenly made major improvements between last year and this, and to add to that, BYU runs a 3-4 defense.  That'll just give the line a new look to deal with, and one that's a little more flexible and changeable than the standard 4-3.

BYU also brings back linebacker Kyle Van Noy; I'd be remiss not starting off the discussion with him, because that's what Mike London did, identifying Van Noy as the player they wanted to scheme around.  Van Noy plays weakside LB in BYU's 4-3, so actually, he's less of a factor in the run game than the phrase "terrifying linebacker" would imply.  He can be run away from, and if I interpret the stats rightly, teams often did - Van Noy only had 53 tackles last year, much less than you'd expect from the team's star defender.  That said, 22 of those were in the backfield, which is a terrifying number.

The Cougars will be doing this with largely a brand-new defensive line.  First-round draft phenom Ziggy Ansah is gone, and the only currently-starting member of the line that did so as well last year is nose tackle Eathyn Manumaleuna, who played only four games.  And the only holdover starter in the linebacking corps, besides Van Noy, is the other outside LB, strong-sider Spencer Beck.  If UVA wants to run away from Van Noy, though, they'll have to run at Beck.

The other option: run it up the middle, testing our weakness (relative to the OTs) against their new faces.  Since coaches love to try and establish the middle, expect a few shots in that direction within the first couple offensive series.

What excites me, though, is that there's no opportunity here for the coaches to hide their intentions regarding the workload split.  It's very safe to assume Kevin Parks starts out as the primary back, but the truth is, I don't think the coaches have precise intentions about the rest of it.  I'd guess that Khalek Shepherd and Taquan Mizzell will roughly split the remainder of the carries in the first half as the coaches evaluate them in live action; if the game is close, we'll then learn who they're most comfortable with.

I also think, simply due to turnover on the BYU defense, we should be able to outperform the sub-3 yards per carry that the Cougars held opponents to last year.  Our own blocking leaves something to be desired until they prove it doesn't, but does about 3.5 yards a carry sound about right?  I think it does.  I don't think our run game will be enough to control the action, but it won't be a total wreck.

-- UVA pass offense vs. BYU pass defense

(all stats 2012)

Quarterback:
David Watford: 0/0, N/A%, 0 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, N/A yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 48 rec., 568 yards, 5 TDs
Dominique Terrell: 38 rec., 475 yards, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
268.0 yards/game, 6.8 yards/attempt
85th of 124 (national); 9th of 12 (ACC)

BYU defense:
179.2 yards/game, 6.2 yards/attempt
21st of 124 (national)

Another thing we might learn, about the coaches themselves this time: How nasty is their playcalling?  Will Steve Fairchild be out for blood upon looking at BYU's injury-ravaged cornerback corps?  Three of the four guys listed on BYU's post-spring depth chart are out, if not for the season then at least for this game.  The fourth, senior Skye PoVey, is called a "tough veteran with skills" by a cheerleading media wonk in Utah, but is a career special-teamer who played in three games last year.

PoVey probably won't start.  Another media outlet - which in the same article refers to the cornerback situation as an "outright nightmare" - suggests that BYU will use true freshman Dallin Leavitt and juco transfer Robertson Daniel (I didn't write his name backwards) as starters.  Daniel has looked decent in camp, but didn't play last year as he was getting his classroom work in order.

So if Steve Fairchild wants be nasty, and we should really be hoping he does, he'll use three- and four-receiver sets until Bronco Mendenhall's eyes bleed.  Force BYU to take their linebackers off the field for thoroughly inexperienced cornerbacks - or see if those linebackers can cover Dominique Terrell and maybe Adrian Gamble, it's all the same to me.

All is not a total disaster in BYU's pass defense.  Kyle Van Noy is not coming off the field, because he's a devastating pass rusher, racking up 13 sacks last year.  Daniel Sorenson is one of the better safeties out west; he had three INTs in 2012.  The safeties overall are still respectable and should be able to help out the cornerbacks effectively.

Still.  We have a damn deep group of receivers and BYU has a damn shallow cornerback set.  David Watford will probably see zone coverages out the wazoo to try and cover up their coverage deficiencies.  But I'm going to go ahead and assume our coaches are both smart and out for blood, and that our wide receivers will get a lot of field time until BYU proves they can deal with that.  Dominique Terrell should have a big, big game; if PoVey is used as a nickel back, he flat out can't cover Terrell.  I'm just gonna say six catches at a minimum, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 8 or 10; it's that bad in BYU's secondary.

-- BYU run offense vs. UVA pass defense

(all stats 2012)

Top backs:
Jamaal Williams: 166 carries, 775 yards, 4.7 ypc, 12 TDs
Michael Alisa: 58 carries, 222 yards, 3.8 ypc, 1 TD

BYU offense:
153.15 yards/game, 3.94 yards/attempt
82nd of 124 (national)

UVA defense:
144.92 yards/game, 3.99 yards/attempt
51st of 124 (national), 5th of 12 (ACC)

BYU brought in a new offensive coordinator this year - sort of.  Robert Anae was BYU's OC until 2010, when he left for Arizona to work with Rich Rodriguez.  Now he's back, in a move that is raising some eyebrows and being absolutely ripped in some quarters.  (Some of the choicest quotes: "Anae stacked and lit the offense into a burning heap [in 2010]."  "He had the charisma of a pile of bricks.")

So this is his first game back after picking up the no-huddle concept from Rodriguez.  BYU has always been a run-the-quarterback team, and that won't change.  RB Jamaal Williams remains the focus of the rushing offense; Williams has decent skills, but BYU doesn't have a great deal of depth behind him.  Michael Alisa isn't a scary talent.  But new quarterback Taysom Hill has some legs, too; his 68-yard touchdown run last season was BYU's longest.  Hill got some quality playing time in as a freshman last year, outrunning starting QB Riley Nelson, and BYU is justifiably high on his skills.

The questions will be around their O-line, which doesn't have a single senior on it.  There's less experience than would be ideal, and the BYU staff didn't nail down the rotation until just this week.  They plan to do a lot of rotating and subbing in and out - something that would be necessary to keep them fresh in a fast-paced no-huddle - and that's something that our coaches need to be on top of.  They need to take assholish advantage of the rule that says if the offense subs, the defense has to be allowed to sub too.  Sub when they sub, but nice and easy and slow and take your sweet time about it, and let the BYU offense stand around waiting.

As for the run game itself, if Anae has brought back some wider line splits from Arizona, it's another thing our guys need to take advantage of.  We do have some athleticism at DT - David Dean can move, and Mike Moore, too, when he slides inside.  Williams is a good, not great, running back, but Hill remains the wild card.  UVA can win if Williams gets his yards, but they can't let Hill burn them with his feet.  If he gets 80-100 yards of his own, BYU has probably won the game.

-- BYU pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

(all stats 2012)

Quarterback:
Taysom Hill: 42/71, 59.2%; 425 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs; 5.99 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Cody Hoffman: 100 rec., 1,248 yards, 11 TDs
J.D. Falslev: 37 rec., 274 yards, 2 TDs

BYU offense:
247.2 yards/game, 6.5 yards/attempt
95th of 124 (national)

UVA defense:
208.4 yards/game, 6.3 yards/attempt
25th of 124 (national), 3rd of 12 (ACC)

It's pretty plain from just the above stats that Cody Hoffman dominates the BYU receiving corps.  Hoffman is a tall, smooth receiver (6'4") whom Phil Steele named a preseason all-American.  The rest of the group isn't a bunch of schmos, but Hoffman gets almost all the catches, because he's open so often.  Demetrious Nicholson will have his hands full, and will probably get a lot of safety help.

The no-huddle that BYU is installing, however, probably means a little bit more of a spread-around.  Just about everyone else who got significant catches last year also returns for BYU, and guys like Skyler Ridley and J.D. Falslev aren't electric but will demand your attention.  BYU also involves the running backs and tight ends just as much as the non-Hoffman receivers, and ultimately the wide array of legitimate options will be very taxing for our pass defense.

Taysom Hill is also a concern.  Hill actually had a better passer rating than starter Riley Nelson last season, although he didn't play after the sixth game of the year.  He'll be running a new offense in which he doesn't have a world of experience, but he's got the makings of a talented quarterback, and of course he'll get a lot of help from Hoffman.

One thing I think will remain unknown until we actually see it is the nature of the passing attack; meaning that last year, it was a very dink-and-dunk approach.  Nelson and Hill both averaged fewer yards per completion than did Mike Rocco; Hill's was just over 10.  If I had to guess, and I probably will, I'd say that won't change much; dinking your way downfield is very conducive to the no-huddle, because deep downfield throws usually result in incompletions, and incompletions slow you down, not to mention force your receiver to trot the whole way back to the line.

I think this will be the toughest aspect of the game for UVA to deal with, however.  We have a good secondary, but I don't think we'll be able to generate a big pass rush just because of the nature of BYU's expected offense, and Hoffman is one of the best receivers we'll face all year.  (Good prep for Oregon, though.)  I'd say even though Hill won't average more than 11.5 yards per completion or so, he'll still top 250 for the game.

-- Favorability ratings

A new thing I'm introducing this year.  This is a 0-10 scale; 5 means evenly balanced, 0 means we're totally screwed, and 10 means the other guy is.

UVA run offense: 3.5
UVA pass offense: 7
UVA run defense: 5.5
UVA pass defense: 3

Average: 4.75

-- Outlook

BYU is a good team - but a flawed one.  They've got some weapons on both sides of the ball, and, I'd have to say for now, the advantage at quarterback; Hill has demonstrated something on the field, and Watford hasn't yet.  But there are major holes which can be exploited.  Unsettlement on the O-line, a new offensive style, and basically no cornerbacks.  It's fair to say we don't really know yet if our team is talented enough, or with enough of a killer instinct, to go after those holes.  That goes for both the players and the coaches.  We also don't really know if BYU has the full ability to take advantage of our weaknesses, either; our offensive line is shaky, but their D-line is new and so are their middle linebackers.  If we can jump out to a lead, we'll see if that killer instinct turns on; it ought to.  If we're playing from behind, well, at least that will force us to go pass-heavy, right into BYU's weakness at cornerback.

Prediction summary:

-- Khalek Shepherd and Taquan Mizzell split carries and targets in the first half, but as the game goes on, one or the other takes a back seat.

-- Dominique Terrell has a huge day, to the tune of at least six catches.

-- The run offense generates about 3.5 yards per carry from the primary backs.

-- If Taysom Hill rushes for 90+ yards, BYU wins.

-- Hill will average no more than 11.5 yards a completion, but rack up over 250 yards passing.

-- The first team to go up by two scores wins.  Killer instinct.

Final score: BYU 21, UVA 17

-- Rest of the ACC:

North Carolina @ South Carolina - Thu., 6:00 - Battle of the Carolinas.

Wake Forest vs. Presbyterian - Thu., 6:30 - Wake always plays this team for some reason.

Miami vs. Florida Atlantic - Fri., 8:00 - You don't come into the OB, baby - wait, that was the other nondescript Florida Something team.  Nobody knows the difference anyway.

Georgia Tech vs. Elon - 12:00 - Fighting Christians forever.

Boston College vs. Villanova - 12:00 - The Jesuits vs. the Augustinians.

Maryland vs. Florida International - 12:30 - Oh, yeah, it was this Florida Something.

NC State vs. Louisiana Tech - 12:30 - The Bulldogs have set out to conquer the ACC, one team and one year at a time.

Syracuse @ Penn State - 3:30 - The joke here is both too easy and way too wrong.

Duke vs. NC Central - 4:00 - UNC is fighting for supremacy of two states; Duke is focusing just on Durham.

Virginia Tech vs. Alabama - 5:30 - The uglier, the better.

Clemson vs. Georgia - 8:00 - Definitely the top ACC game of the week, and what better chance to take the SEC down a peg?  UGA is ranked #5, so it won't be easy.

Florida State @ Pittsburgh - Mon., 8:00 - I've got a bad feeling this could be nasty for the home team.  I'm lower on Pitt than most; we'll see if I'm right.