This weekend found me out of town, so I've got very little to offer in terms of cutting-edge insight. I even forgot to record the lacrosse games, which I guarantee you is why they blew out Maryland in the first round of the ACC tournament. If the Tivo had been fired up for that one they'd have lost for sure.
The second game, obviously, was rather less recordable, although the offensive effort of 13 goals each game was encouraging. I promise tomorrow will tease out the full story of the lacrosse season, but I'll leave it at this for today: there's no reason to think we're doomed next year. 2004 was a flaming wreck of a season and the following year saw the Hoos in the final four, with a championship the year after that. UVA was frustratingly off their game most weekends, but not outclassed most weekends either.
Speaking of frustrating, I said don't let Virginia Tech's top six hitters string hits together and everything would be fine, and they strung hits together and everything was not fine. So much for crushing the Hokies' Durham dreams. I remain unperturbed, however. The Hoos' realistic goal should be third place in the ACC so that they can be in the opposite bracket from UNC, and third is exactly where they sit. Lest you need reminding that baseball can be a fickle sport with no guarantees in any given weekend, the utterly pathetic BC Eagles (9-35 record, coming into the weekend with 20 straight ACC losses) won their series against Miami. BC as a team is batting .206(!!) with a .574(!!) OPS, just sayin'.
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-- Congratulations are in order for the men's tennis team, ACC champs for the seventh time in the last ten years. That gives UVA four ACC championships (both swimming teams and women's soccer are the others), which ties us with Florida State for the most. UVA is the prohibitive favorite to take the rowing title and FSU nearly as favored for softball, which means the race will end tied between the Hoos and Noles unless one of the two wins the baseball championship as well - not out of the question.
-- UVA had just one player taken in the NFL draft: Oday Aboushi, in the fifth round to the most dysfunctional team in the league, or the Jets for short. Nice for Oday, a Brooklyn native, but hopefully the crap culture around that team doesn't poison his career. A few seniors also signed post-draft contracts, but most aren't likely to stick. The guy with the best chance is probably Laroy Reynolds, picked up by the Jags.
-- ESPN has decided to take on the challenge of covering every game in the NCAA baseball tournament. This is not that easy. At first blush it might look like fantastic news - no more hoping ours is one of the four regionals that gets a set of cameras - and for the most part it is. This isn't like covering all 67 games of the hoops tourney, though.
For one thing, basketball never has more than 16 games on in one day, thanks to staggering the games on Thursday/Saturday and Friday/Sunday. Baseball can't do this; all 16 regionals play Friday through Sunday, or Monday if necessary. UVA's regional started Saturday last year thanks to Friday rain, which meant a really squashed schedule because they won't play on Tuesday if they can help it. This means 32 games on Friday and 32 games on Saturday as well, because of the double-elimination format. They could move half the regionals to a Thursday start, but it still means 32 games on Friday.
ESPN isn't going to turn ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, ESPNews, and ESPN Classic all over to nonstop baseball programming, nor are games going to begin at 9 AM, so what this really means is a heavy reliance on ESPN3 and the implementation of an NFL Red Zone-like channel that flips around to find the most interesting games. It'll be really nice to have live video, but it doesn't necessarily mean it'll be on your 48" screen.
Here's the other benefit of this, though: it means ESPN is taking college baseball very seriously, which happens to be a sport that the ACC does better than most other conferences they cover. It could mean a little more cash flow into the conference's very willing coffers.
-- An interesting article out of Tallahassee detailing John Swofford's work in keeping the decision-makers at Florida State happy. It's fun reading about the machinations behind the scenes, but it's also interesting to note that Swoff made a similar road trip to Charlottesville. And it's also interesting to see the Tallahassee people let slip the "pending" ACC Network. This should be something to look forward to.
Showing posts with label aboushi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label aboushi. Show all posts
Monday, April 29, 2013
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
the recruit: Eric Tetlow
Name: Eric Tetlow
Position: OL
Hometown: Richmond
School: Mills Godwin
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 300
24/7: 82, three stars; #108 OT, VA #38
ESPN: 79, three stars; #41 OT, VA #23, Atl. #69
Rivals: 5.5, three stars
Scout: two stars; #122 OT
Other offers: Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Arizona State, Maryland, Purdue, Boston College, South Florida, Navy, East Carolina, Temple
Two Signing Day commitments necessitate two more recruit profiles before the series wraps up for the 2013 class. In the summer, UVA looked pretty set at O-line after taking commitments from Sadiq Olanrewaju, Jack McDonald, and Brad Henson; then some cracks in the depth appeared, most notably the loss of Tim Cwalina to a heart condition, and the coaches started looking around again. This was even before Henson decommitted; when that happened, the staff went into O-line overdrive.
Tetlow was one of the first guys they reached out to after Henson left; he had been recruited by UVA during the cycle, but was never offered, and committed to Wake Forest in November. The first time around, he said thanks but no thanks; that was just before Christmas.
But it so happens Tetlow is one of those guys who's picking a school and not just a football team. And he wants to study engineering, which is a very, very tall task for an athlete. Even one with a 3.9 GPA. It's even harder to do at a liberal arts school like Wake Forest. Tetlow would've had to do some convoluted distance-learning stuff through some other school and the more he thought about that, the less appealing it must have sounded. So literally in the middle of the night before Signing Day, he called the Wake and UVA coaches and made the switch. A very nice surprise for UVA fans; I don't envy making that phone call, though.
Tetlow's ratings are all over the map a little bit, but that's not too surprising. Mid-level offensive linemen tend to be that way more often than not. His offer list is OK and about matches the ratings. But what he's got going for him is being the biggest guy in the O-line class. The only other players already at 300 pounds are defensive guys. ESPN says "strong" and "strength" a few times in their assessment and sums him up as a guy who can run-block very well and has the physical tools to add pass-blocking to that repertoire.
Right now on the depth chart I've got Tetlow as a tackle, since that's sort of the default for incoming freshmen unless guard looks obvious. But I'm thinking Sean Cascarano as a comparison here. Cascarano could be a tackle if we needed it, and probably a good one. The reason he's not is named Morgan Moses and the other reason is named Oday Aboushi; he basically got pushed inside by players even better suited to tackle than he is. Tetlow's very similar. He's got the height and long arms for tackle and he's very smart, I don't doubt he can get the footwork down. But his run-blocking appears well ahead of his pass-blocking (the latter of which you don't learn anything about in his highlights because his opponents don't have any moves at all)** and the chances are that this class (and maybe the next one) hold players better suited to tackle than Tetlow. Olanrewaju is an obvious candidate, and George Adeosun blew up so damn fast it's hard not to see tackle potential with him as well.
So I think the ultimate move will be inside to guard. A smart engineering student like Tetlow might be a center candidate, but we have to wait and see on that. I suspect we won't learn much at all his first year, really, as I expect the coaches to do a fair amount of experimenting on him. If he's a guard, the path to playing time is a little more open than at tackle and his redshirt freshman year could see him on the field, with a very legitimate shot at starting by his third year in the program.
**Also, Tetlow has a website, on which is an amusing picture of a relatively clean Tetlow pass-blocking for a quarterback whose every inch of his uniform is caked with mud. Yes yes a zillion extenuating circumstances, not least of which is that there are four other pass-blockers not headed to BCS-level football, and it is in no way a reflection of Tetlow's skills, but it's still a funny commentary on the pass-blocking when the quarterback looks like a walking mud bath.
Position: OL
Hometown: Richmond
School: Mills Godwin
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 300
24/7: 82, three stars; #108 OT, VA #38
ESPN: 79, three stars; #41 OT, VA #23, Atl. #69
Rivals: 5.5, three stars
Scout: two stars; #122 OT
Other offers: Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Arizona State, Maryland, Purdue, Boston College, South Florida, Navy, East Carolina, Temple
Two Signing Day commitments necessitate two more recruit profiles before the series wraps up for the 2013 class. In the summer, UVA looked pretty set at O-line after taking commitments from Sadiq Olanrewaju, Jack McDonald, and Brad Henson; then some cracks in the depth appeared, most notably the loss of Tim Cwalina to a heart condition, and the coaches started looking around again. This was even before Henson decommitted; when that happened, the staff went into O-line overdrive.
Tetlow was one of the first guys they reached out to after Henson left; he had been recruited by UVA during the cycle, but was never offered, and committed to Wake Forest in November. The first time around, he said thanks but no thanks; that was just before Christmas.
But it so happens Tetlow is one of those guys who's picking a school and not just a football team. And he wants to study engineering, which is a very, very tall task for an athlete. Even one with a 3.9 GPA. It's even harder to do at a liberal arts school like Wake Forest. Tetlow would've had to do some convoluted distance-learning stuff through some other school and the more he thought about that, the less appealing it must have sounded. So literally in the middle of the night before Signing Day, he called the Wake and UVA coaches and made the switch. A very nice surprise for UVA fans; I don't envy making that phone call, though.
Tetlow's ratings are all over the map a little bit, but that's not too surprising. Mid-level offensive linemen tend to be that way more often than not. His offer list is OK and about matches the ratings. But what he's got going for him is being the biggest guy in the O-line class. The only other players already at 300 pounds are defensive guys. ESPN says "strong" and "strength" a few times in their assessment and sums him up as a guy who can run-block very well and has the physical tools to add pass-blocking to that repertoire.
Right now on the depth chart I've got Tetlow as a tackle, since that's sort of the default for incoming freshmen unless guard looks obvious. But I'm thinking Sean Cascarano as a comparison here. Cascarano could be a tackle if we needed it, and probably a good one. The reason he's not is named Morgan Moses and the other reason is named Oday Aboushi; he basically got pushed inside by players even better suited to tackle than he is. Tetlow's very similar. He's got the height and long arms for tackle and he's very smart, I don't doubt he can get the footwork down. But his run-blocking appears well ahead of his pass-blocking (the latter of which you don't learn anything about in his highlights because his opponents don't have any moves at all)** and the chances are that this class (and maybe the next one) hold players better suited to tackle than Tetlow. Olanrewaju is an obvious candidate, and George Adeosun blew up so damn fast it's hard not to see tackle potential with him as well.
So I think the ultimate move will be inside to guard. A smart engineering student like Tetlow might be a center candidate, but we have to wait and see on that. I suspect we won't learn much at all his first year, really, as I expect the coaches to do a fair amount of experimenting on him. If he's a guard, the path to playing time is a little more open than at tackle and his redshirt freshman year could see him on the field, with a very legitimate shot at starting by his third year in the program.
**Also, Tetlow has a website, on which is an amusing picture of a relatively clean Tetlow pass-blocking for a quarterback whose every inch of his uniform is caked with mud. Yes yes a zillion extenuating circumstances, not least of which is that there are four other pass-blockers not headed to BCS-level football, and it is in no way a reflection of Tetlow's skills, but it's still a funny commentary on the pass-blocking when the quarterback looks like a walking mud bath.
Friday, November 2, 2012
game preview: NC State
Date/Time: Sat., November 3; 12:30
TV: ACC Net., ESPN3
Record against the Pack: 21-34-1
Last meeting: NCSt. 28, UVA 14; 10/22/11, Charlottesville
Last weekend: UVA bye; UNC 43, NCSt. 35
Line: NC State by 10.5
Injury report:
Virginia -
OUT FOR SEASON
S Pablo Alvarez, DT Marco Jones, WR Mario Nixon
OUT
DE Diamonte Bailey, DE Billy Schautz
DOUBTFUL
None
QUESTIONABLE
RB Clifton Richardson
PROBABLE
DT David Dean, K Ian Frye, CB Drequan Hoskey
GOT THEIR ASSES SUSPENDED, WAY TO GO GUYS
FB LoVante' Battle, LB Henry Coley, TE Jeremiah Mathis
NC State -
OUT FOR SEASON
G Zach Allen, DT Jacob Kahut, LB Michael Peek, RB James Washington, DE Forrest West
OUT
CB Jarvis Byrd
DOUBTFUL
None
QUESTIONABLE
None
PROBABLE
None
If all had gone as it was supposed to, we'd either be bowl-eligible by now, or needing this one more to get there. This has not happened. The easier portion of the schedule has come and gone, and now the Hoos are staring down the barrel of a winless ACC season. That would be something of a disaster, as it would also mean a 10-loss season, and regardless of whether you or I think it should, it would turn up the heat a notch on Mike London's seat. The upcoming four-game stretch, therefore, is no longer about bowl eligibility and all about looking marginally respectable. For a given definition of "respectable."
-- UVA run offense vs. NCSt run defense
Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 103 carries, 503 yards, 4.9 avg, 3 TDs
Perry Jones: 93 carries, 322 yards, 3.5 avg, 2 TDs
UVA offense:
128.13 yards/game, 3.74 yards/attempt
92nd of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)
NCSt defense:
138.0 yards/game, 3.74 yards/attempt
44th of 124 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)
Guess there's no need to overanalyze this one. Based on past performance I calculate that UVA will average exactly 3.74 yards per carry on Saturday.
Maybe you want something more in depth, though. The thing about NC State's run defense is that it would be absolutely horrible if they didn't have a very good, veteran defensive backfield. Senior safeties Earl Wolff and Brandan Bishop are the team's tackle leaders, and you have to go all the way down to ninth on the tackles list before you find any defensive linemen. Juston Burris is the team's fifth defensive back (and no, the Pack don't run a 3-3-5) and even he is ahead of the D-linemen.
When you have to rely so much on your back seven, you're going to get a lot of inconsistency, and that's what's happened. Furthermore they've given up some big games to opposing running backs in their last three contests. Giovani Bernard, Wes Brown, and Chris Thompson all ran for over 100+ yards. That streak will end on Saturday, because all three had workhorse-level workloads, and UVA splits the carries too much for anyone to have 100 yards, short of there being an 80-yard play somewhere, which there won't.
Still, I expect to find at least a little bit of running room. With Parks averaging almost five yards a carry, that hasn't been too much of a problem lately, and when you don't have a good defensive line you lose the advantage you might have against UVA's O-line. The main concern I have is linebackers shooting gaps; Wake found ways to do this with some consistency last game, and State's LB Rickey Dowdy has nine TFL this season from the weak side. Plus, Wolff and Bishop know what they're doing and won't be fooled by Phillip Sims's not-good play-fakes, making it all the more likely they'll be able to crash the front lines and hold running plays to minimum yardage. Parks will get his yards (Jones I'm increasingly less sure about) but he'll have to grind them out. I don't expect anything longer than about 15 yards at the most.
-- UVA pass offense vs. NCSt pass defense
Quarterback:
Phillip Sims: 84/155, 54.2%; 1,000 yards (exactly!), 7 TDs, 4 INTs; 6.45 avg.
Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 29 rec., 407 yards, 1 TD
Perry Jones: 28 rec., 258 yards, 0 TDs
UVA offense:
279.8 yards/game, 7.0 yards/attempt
72nd of 124 (national), 10th of 12 (ACC)
NCSt defense:
278.1 yards/game, 8.4 yards/attempt
115th of 124 (national), 11th of 12 (ACC)
This was not what I expected to see out of the Pack. Before the season I pegged them as the top secondary in the conference; obviously that ain't true. And those numbers are even more astounding considering that they actually have a pretty effective pass rush. If they didn't have 24 sacks those numbers might even be worse. (Yes, sacks end up in the rushing totals. Still, all that pressure, you'd think it'd help with the rest of the operation.)
Clearly, this pass rush is the #1 concern. Oday Aboushi and Morgan Moses have been absolutely brutal lately. DE Darryl Cato-Bishop is the primary pass rush threat, but State has 13 different players with a sack. UVA barely has half that many sacks, period. DT T.Y. McGill can also be disruptive, and the Pack like to blitz as well. Phillip Sims has been under a lot of pressure lately and doesn't handle the rush especially well - sometimes fine, sometimes not - so it'd be awfully nice if UVA can find a way to keep the grass stains off his shirt.
The other problem is that Sims and timing routes haven't been a happy combination. Combine that with an inability to pass block for longer than 1.7 seconds, meaning deepish downfield routes don't have time to develop, and you see why the pass offense has been leading the all-out charge to the basement.
Out in the secondary, David Amerson has recovered somewhat from an absolutely horrible nationally televised season opener against Tennessee, and has four interceptions. He's still a top corner, but prone to inexplicable breakdowns, probably because of his gambling. He has so many picks - this year and last - because he breaks very well on the ball, but he's susceptible as hell to stop-and-go routes, and safeties Wolff and Bishop can sometimes be overaggressive against the run.
You'd think, therefore, that play-action would be a great way to beat the Pack. You'd be right. That being the case, let's hope Sims's play fakes have improved, because he can be awfully lazy with them. Things could be good if they have. That said, I'm at a loss what to expect here. Mostly I expect the pass rush to fluster Sims, because I haven't seen a lot of evidence that our tackles are the NFL-ready machines we thought they were. Beyond that, though, this is a very boom-or-bust matchup. I have a feeling Sims will either be horrible or awesome.
-- NCSt run offense vs. UVA run defense
Top backs:
Tony Creecy: 95 carries, 385 yards, 4.1 avg, 3 TDs
Shadrach Thornton: 59 carries, 298 yards, 5.1 avg, 2 TDs
NCSt offense:
122.38 yards/game, 3.30 yards/attempt
109th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)
UVA defense:
148.25 yards/game, 4.10 yards/attempt
63rd of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)
There are biblical names like David and Jacob which everyone knows and uses. Then there's Shadrach Thornton, whose parents showed a very admirable attention to biblical detail. I have no idea if his brothers are named Meshach and Abednego.
Thornton's presence on the field is the result of the Pack having to dig very deep to find some running backs. James Washington missed a lot of time with an ankle injury, got back on the field against UNC, and promptly wrecked his knee. And the Pack sat Mustafa Greene a while ago for being a twat and kicked him off the team a couple weeks ago for being a bigger twat.
That brings it down to Creecy and Thornton. Thornton has the gaudier average, but a lot of that was racked up against The Citadel, and actual alive run defenses the last three weeks have shut him down. Creecy will be the workback; he's a little bigger than Thornton, and the offense has been tilting in his direction lately, even when Washington was back.
NC State has a veteran interior line, which ought to be getting better results in the run game, but they're also not anyone's idea of all-conference players. Not bad, not great, and the same holds true for the State backs, even before Washington and Greene left the scene. The whole thing is straight vanilla: good enough to help supplement the pass game, and not much more.
Our own run defense will probably take a hit without Henry Coley. I think there's a prevailing sentiment that we'll be OK, but I worry; Daquan Romero doesn't have half of Coley's experience. I wouldn't be surprised to see State test Romero early, and run at his side to see what he's got. Otherwise, we should be fine. Believe it or not, this is a top-20 run defense in the country If You Take Out The Georgia Tech Game (a phrase I've used enough by now to officially deserve capitalization.) As with most games this season, every time they run and don't pass, it's a tiny little win for us.
-- NCSt pass offense vs. UVA pass defense
Quarterback:
Mike Glennon: 191/330, 57.9%; 2,455 yards, 19 TDs, 9 INTs; 7.44 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Quintin Payton: 34 rec., 603 yards, 1 TD
Bryan Underwood: 28 rec., 460 yards, 10 TDs
NCSt offense:
306.9 yards/game, 7.4 yards/attempt
54th of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)
UVA defense:
208.6 yards/game, 6.8 yards/attempt
46th of 124 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)
If I didn't know any better, I'd say those were some damn good numbers for a 2-6 team. The conventional wisdom is that a senior quarterback like Glennon will carve us up. He might just do that, as I'm not sure the pass defense passes the eye test just yet. The cold hard stats are very nice, but the defense has gotten burned a bit at very bad times.
NC State presents a challenge. Few teams in the country pass more than they do; they're 13th in total pass attempts. And they spread the ball around very well. Like UVA, they use their running backs extensively (a potential point in our favor since our defense ought to be well-practiced against that stuff.) Tight ends Mario Carter and Asa Watson have 18 and 16 catches, respectively, another test for newly minted starter Romero on the strong side. And they have a deep corps of receivers. When I saw that someone had 10 TD catches - that was the first thing that jumped off the stats page, for obvious reasons - I thought, "oh, a tall dude or a tight end or something." Nope, it's Bryan Underwood; he's a leetle guy. He, plus Quintin Payton and Tobais Palmer (every time I write this guy's name I think "damn typos" but no, it's Tobais) are all frequent targets of Glennon. Payton is huge; the other two are small.
Glennon is coming off of a 467-yard performance against UNC, and he did it completing only 29 of 52 passes. He might've topped 500, but this happened. I wouldn't count on that as a defensive strategy, but it's nice to know we're not the only team in the ACC with that issue.
Not many teams we've played are willing to include so many players in the passing game. That'll be the toughest test for this secondary of ours, plus Romero. But the interesting part is this: the Pack are not very good at protecting Glennon (in fairness, a lot of pass attempts means a lot of sacks, so it's not a complete indictment of their O-line that they're near the bottom of the country in sacks allowed) and our coaches have been committing more playing time on the D-line to younger players with more explosiveness. Eli Harold is listed as a starter, and Chris Brathwaite and David Dean (who got his first career sack against Wake Forest) have been making more appearances. Pressure on Glennon is a must, obviously, or he'll pick us apart. Probably he will at intervals here and there anyway, but there's a chance here to limit the damage.
-- Outlook
What I've just typed makes the game look winnable. That is until you take into account our very special teams. If we could get into a fair fight with our opponents we might at least be 4-4. The offense isn't too functional, but if special teams didn't piss away half our games, the defense wouldn't always be given short fields to work with. You'd like to hope the bye week was used to sharpen up the special teams focus and erase some of the physical and stupid mental mistakes, but evidence must be seen before we can declare it to be true. Until then, it's safest to assume that unit will continue to shit the bed with the lights on.
-- Prediction summary
-- Phillip Sims completes either less than 50% or more than 60% of his passes.
-- UVA doesn't have a run play of more than 15 yards.
-- Sims is sacked at least three times.
-- Our running backs average at least half a yard per carry more than State's.
-- At least twice during this game, something happens on special teams that makes me try and reach through the monitor to strangle someone.
Final score: NCSt 26, UVA 13
-- Rest of the ACC
Florida State, North Carolina byes
Miami 30, Virginia Tech 12 (Thursday) - There's a very, very good chance VT will be fighting for bowl eligibility in our Thanksgiving matchup.
Georgia Tech at Maryland, 12:30 - Maryland's QB situation is like if we had to start Demeitre Brim at QB with Jake McGee as backup. Only they had tried to redshirt the freshman linebacker they're putting under center, and would like, if possible, to redshirt the freshman tight end acting as backup. And he'll still probably rack up 35 on GT's defense.
Boston College at Wake Forest, 3:30 - BC's win over Maryland last week, in which they killed off (no, not literally) the last surviving Maryland quarterback, put UVA right on the inside track for the ACC basement.
Clemson at Duke, 7:00 - Duke has never played in a prime time game because the last time they were good nobody had yet conceived of the idea that you could use electricity to light up the outdoors. Both teams are attempting to keep pace in their respective division races, but Clemson actually needs the game more I cannot believe I just wrote that.
Monday, November 28, 2011
weekend review
This is going to be kind of a short review and also late because I've been spending all day focusing on the positive. Thinking happy, positive thoughts. It's days like Saturday where I'm thankful to have two teams in my rooting satchel. It sucks we lost - really, it sucks that we lost 38-0, I would've been able to just let a 21-14 loss wash right over me - but fortunately it cannot dampen Michigan's win over Ohio State. That's the bonus - you'd think going 1-1 on Saturday would even things out, but a win over a rival is untouchably delicious. Nothing can ever ruin that.
Of course, the flipside is that nothing can make up for a 38-point loss to a rival, either, right? Wrong - we are 8-4 and going bowling. As I was hoping to be 6-6 at this point, I can't let myself be too disappointed. I think the bowl possibilities are narrowed down to two: the Department Store Bowl in Charlotte and the Music City Bowl in Nashville, with either Cincinnati or Vanderbilt, respectively, as opponents. In other words, we're not even stuck in some non-destination hole playing some glorified D-II Sun Belt squad, and there are beatable opponents waiting. Win this upcoming bowl game to go to 9-4 and I can call it, at worst, the second-best season of UVA football since I arrived on Grounds as a bright-eyed and bushy-tailed first-year. How can I complain? Besides the obvious, I mean.
Speaking of the obvious, let's take one last necessary look back on Saturday and then file it forever. Because we have to tally up the predictions, that's why. Otherwise, the only analysis you need is HOOS PLAY BAD. No need to anguish over things like the decision to forgo a field goal - wooo, it would've been 38-3 and besides that VT would've gotten the ball back in better field position than they did so maybe they'd've scored on that drive and then it would've been 45-3. Hoos play bad. Turn ball over. Not run block. Analyzing that game - so easy a caveman can do it. Let's analyze predictions instead:
- Either Jones or Parks tops 100 yards rushing.
You heard me: Not run block.
- Mike Rocco completes between 50 and 60 percent of his passes.
16 of 27 does in fact qualify. Unfortunately, he didn't do the other thing I said he needed to do, which is take care of the ball. Rocco actually moved the ball very well as long as he was on his own side of the field. When the Hokies had less ground to defend, they did it very well.
- So does Logan Thomas.
Thomas was 13/21, which is more than 60%, so I get nothing here. It's the only right call, as UVA failed in general to shut down Thomas through the air. The two things I most feared came to pass, and you see the result.
- David Wilson runs for 120+ yards.
Make that three things. Wilson got his yards alright, 153 of them.
- Perry Jones catches at least five. He is Superman.
Jones caught zero. Hello kryptonite.
- Whichever QB throws fewer interceptions, wins.
You know how this one went.
Three for six gives me 36-of-88 in the regular season, which is a shade under 41%. Considering how specific I make these predictions, I think that's not half bad. 6-6 in the score department, though, which literally is half bad, and 6-5-1 ATS. I have a chance to get over .500 on picks, and I suspect I'll do so if the Hoos win their bowl.
Losing means I didn't get to cast a vote for UVA in the Blogpoll after all. Maybe next year - or maybe in the final poll after the bowl. Anyway, this is the ballot. They're coming later these days because they take longer to do every week.
There's a lot of change because there were a lot of rivalry-game routs, and these rivalry games don't often match up a powerhouse against a patsy, so there was a lot of opportunity to make things happen.
I don't want to be ranking Southern Miss, by the way, but they are 10-2 (and UVA is kind of a marquee win) and the alternative is either Georgia Tech or dipping into the Big East turdbowl. So there you have it. And if it's any consolation, Saturday was clearly Virginia Tech's best win of the season - usually I just slot that one in the middle somewhere. (That's not consolation? Well, I tried.)
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This marks this year's final installment of Senior Seasons - a few teams are still playing, so I'll toss the results out there if I remember, but only in news bullets. But have no fear - I expect the 2013 recruiting class to be absolutely outstanding, so next year this ought to be a fun section.
Piscataway 34, Franklin 19: Kye Morgan ran for 158 yards and a touchdown, which pushed him over 1,000 yards in just ten games, but Franklin lost their annual rivalry game and finished 6-4.
Buford 42, Elbert County 13 (C.J. Moore)
St. Joseph 32, Hammonton 3 (Max Valles)
St. Joseph Prep 30, Malvern Prep 14 (Michael Mooney)
Hermitage 10, L.C. Bird 0 (Andre Miles-Redmond)
Only three schools will play next week: St. Joseph and Max Valles, Buford and C.J. Moore, and Hermitage with Andre Miles-Redmond. St. Joseph won its rivalry game against crosstown public school Hammonton, and next week will play for New Jersey's Non-Public I championship. Buford and Hermitage are in the state semifinals, Georgia's AA division and Virginia's Level 6. Hermitage's opponent is Centreville, and the winner plays the winner of Oscar Smith and Battlefield at Scott Stadium.
All three have excellent chances; St. Joseph has outscored opponents 423 to 19 this year. Hermitage should be favored against Centreville and then would likely have a battle of the titans against Oscar Smith. Buford has been crushing everyone and is going for its fifth straight title; it would take an upset for them to lose.
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-- I forgot to mention the demise of the soccer teams in their NCAA tournaments. The men, deprived of their best scorer, didn't get past the first round, losing at Klockner to Delaware, 1-0. The ladies carried a shutout streak into the quarterfinals (including a 4-0 win over VT) but lost to FSU in the quarters. Women's sports being what they are (which is to say, way fewer upsets) all four teams in the semis are 1 seeds; UVA was a 2 seed.
-- Someone tell me again why it's the ACC that always gets the bad football rap. We have nine bowl-eligible teams; the Pac-12 would have seven if one of them wasn't a dirty cheater. Seven Pac-12 teams have a losing record in-conference, and five overall, or they will once UCLA gets rocked in the Pac-12 championship. Only five ACC teams have losing conference records, and only three have losing records overall. And if you tell me that's because the ACC plays one fewer conference game and builds its record up on the nonconference schedule, I'll ask you why the SEC gets a pass on theirs.
At worst, the ACC has been the fourth-best conference this year behind the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 - and the Big 12 is being held together by duct tape and toothpicks. The Pac-12 has already fired three of its coaches (all in the putrid Pac-12 South) with more potentially on the way.
-- Speaking of fired coaches, it appears that the ACC will get through this offseason without a single coaching change. That hasn't happened since the 2005-2006 offseason. Although it's not for lack of trying on the part of the fanbases. Marylanders are already chomping at the bit, of course, to get rid of Randy Edsall. Can't imagine why. And Bostonites want Frank Spaziani gone, but he's not going anywhere. (Via BC Interruption.)
-- After the talk of being "Oregon of the East" during last year's uniform unveilings (and getting out-Oregonned so hard by Maryland - and come to think of it, VT as well, but much more quietly) that died down fast this year. UVA skipped two combinations entirely (white over blue and orange over orange, the latter of which THANK GOD) and only used two combinations more than once (orange over blue three times and white over white four times.) All that hype over fancy new unis and we roll with white on white as much as possible.
Everything else was used just once. I could go the rest of my life and be happy never seeing blue/blue in any uniform style ever, but the white jersey with orange pants is too sharp to ignore. And it's a little disappointing to see so little of the classic blue and whites. There's still the bowl game, though.
-- UVA got very solid representation on the all-ACC teams released today. I don't think I can complain about any snubs; I guess I would have liked to see Perry Jones (honorable mention) get more consideration than Andre Ellington (2nd team) simply because Jones is a much greater receiving threat than Ellington, but I think overall it's pretty decent. And ohbytheway, nobody had more players on the first team than UVA did. Only Florida State tied us, with three. Here's the breakdown as far as UVA is concerned:
1st team: Austin Pasztor, Matt Conrath, Chase Minnifield
2nd team: Oday Aboushi, Steve Greer
HM: Perry Jones, Rodney McLeod, Anthony Mihota
-- Big basketball game tomorrow. Big one. It's kind of a bittersweet moment in history for me; it'll be the first time I've ever cheered against Michigan in anything. (I've always said that if this ever happened, I'd choose sides based on who needs the win more; that is clearly Virginia. It'll make up for my answer to Gobbler Country about picking a U-M win over a UVA one on Saturday.) On the plus side, you can expect a pretty well-informed game preview.
Of course, the flipside is that nothing can make up for a 38-point loss to a rival, either, right? Wrong - we are 8-4 and going bowling. As I was hoping to be 6-6 at this point, I can't let myself be too disappointed. I think the bowl possibilities are narrowed down to two: the Department Store Bowl in Charlotte and the Music City Bowl in Nashville, with either Cincinnati or Vanderbilt, respectively, as opponents. In other words, we're not even stuck in some non-destination hole playing some glorified D-II Sun Belt squad, and there are beatable opponents waiting. Win this upcoming bowl game to go to 9-4 and I can call it, at worst, the second-best season of UVA football since I arrived on Grounds as a bright-eyed and bushy-tailed first-year. How can I complain? Besides the obvious, I mean.
Speaking of the obvious, let's take one last necessary look back on Saturday and then file it forever. Because we have to tally up the predictions, that's why. Otherwise, the only analysis you need is HOOS PLAY BAD. No need to anguish over things like the decision to forgo a field goal - wooo, it would've been 38-3 and besides that VT would've gotten the ball back in better field position than they did so maybe they'd've scored on that drive and then it would've been 45-3. Hoos play bad. Turn ball over. Not run block. Analyzing that game - so easy a caveman can do it. Let's analyze predictions instead:
- Either Jones or Parks tops 100 yards rushing.
You heard me: Not run block.
- Mike Rocco completes between 50 and 60 percent of his passes.
16 of 27 does in fact qualify. Unfortunately, he didn't do the other thing I said he needed to do, which is take care of the ball. Rocco actually moved the ball very well as long as he was on his own side of the field. When the Hokies had less ground to defend, they did it very well.
- So does Logan Thomas.
Thomas was 13/21, which is more than 60%, so I get nothing here. It's the only right call, as UVA failed in general to shut down Thomas through the air. The two things I most feared came to pass, and you see the result.
- David Wilson runs for 120+ yards.
Make that three things. Wilson got his yards alright, 153 of them.
- Perry Jones catches at least five. He is Superman.
Jones caught zero. Hello kryptonite.
- Whichever QB throws fewer interceptions, wins.
You know how this one went.
Three for six gives me 36-of-88 in the regular season, which is a shade under 41%. Considering how specific I make these predictions, I think that's not half bad. 6-6 in the score department, though, which literally is half bad, and 6-5-1 ATS. I have a chance to get over .500 on picks, and I suspect I'll do so if the Hoos win their bowl.
Losing means I didn't get to cast a vote for UVA in the Blogpoll after all. Maybe next year - or maybe in the final poll after the bowl. Anyway, this is the ballot. They're coming later these days because they take longer to do every week.
From Old Virginia Ballot - Week 14
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | LSU Tigers | -- |
| 2 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -- |
| 3 | Oklahoma Sooners |  2 |
| 4 | Oklahoma St. Cowboys |  -1 |
| 5 | Michigan Wolverines | -1 |
| 6 | Boise St. Broncos | -- |
| 7 | Stanford Cardinal | 2 |
| 8 | Oregon Ducks | -1 |
| 9 | Wisconsin Badgers | 5 |
| 10 | Virginia Tech Hokies | 3 |
| 11 | USC Trojans | -3 |
| 12 | South Carolina Gamecocks | 8 |
| 13 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | 5 |
| 14 | Georgia Bulldogs | 3 |
| 15 | Michigan St. Spartans | 7 |
| 16 | Houston Cougars | -4 |
| 17 | TCU Horned Frogs | -7 |
| 18 | Arkansas Razorbacks | -7 |
| 19 | Kansas St. Wildcats | -- |
| 20 | Baylor Bears | 4 |
| 21 | Clemson Tigers | -6 |
| 22 | Penn St. Nittany Lions | -6 |
| 23 | Florida St. Seminoles | -- |
| 24 | Southern Miss. Golden Eagles | -1 |
| 25 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | -4 |
| Dropouts: Rutgers Scarlet Knights | ||
SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »
There's a lot of change because there were a lot of rivalry-game routs, and these rivalry games don't often match up a powerhouse against a patsy, so there was a lot of opportunity to make things happen.
I don't want to be ranking Southern Miss, by the way, but they are 10-2 (and UVA is kind of a marquee win) and the alternative is either Georgia Tech or dipping into the Big East turdbowl. So there you have it. And if it's any consolation, Saturday was clearly Virginia Tech's best win of the season - usually I just slot that one in the middle somewhere. (That's not consolation? Well, I tried.)
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This marks this year's final installment of Senior Seasons - a few teams are still playing, so I'll toss the results out there if I remember, but only in news bullets. But have no fear - I expect the 2013 recruiting class to be absolutely outstanding, so next year this ought to be a fun section.
Piscataway 34, Franklin 19: Kye Morgan ran for 158 yards and a touchdown, which pushed him over 1,000 yards in just ten games, but Franklin lost their annual rivalry game and finished 6-4.
Buford 42, Elbert County 13 (C.J. Moore)
St. Joseph 32, Hammonton 3 (Max Valles)
St. Joseph Prep 30, Malvern Prep 14 (Michael Mooney)
Hermitage 10, L.C. Bird 0 (Andre Miles-Redmond)
Only three schools will play next week: St. Joseph and Max Valles, Buford and C.J. Moore, and Hermitage with Andre Miles-Redmond. St. Joseph won its rivalry game against crosstown public school Hammonton, and next week will play for New Jersey's Non-Public I championship. Buford and Hermitage are in the state semifinals, Georgia's AA division and Virginia's Level 6. Hermitage's opponent is Centreville, and the winner plays the winner of Oscar Smith and Battlefield at Scott Stadium.
All three have excellent chances; St. Joseph has outscored opponents 423 to 19 this year. Hermitage should be favored against Centreville and then would likely have a battle of the titans against Oscar Smith. Buford has been crushing everyone and is going for its fifth straight title; it would take an upset for them to lose.
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-- I forgot to mention the demise of the soccer teams in their NCAA tournaments. The men, deprived of their best scorer, didn't get past the first round, losing at Klockner to Delaware, 1-0. The ladies carried a shutout streak into the quarterfinals (including a 4-0 win over VT) but lost to FSU in the quarters. Women's sports being what they are (which is to say, way fewer upsets) all four teams in the semis are 1 seeds; UVA was a 2 seed.
-- Someone tell me again why it's the ACC that always gets the bad football rap. We have nine bowl-eligible teams; the Pac-12 would have seven if one of them wasn't a dirty cheater. Seven Pac-12 teams have a losing record in-conference, and five overall, or they will once UCLA gets rocked in the Pac-12 championship. Only five ACC teams have losing conference records, and only three have losing records overall. And if you tell me that's because the ACC plays one fewer conference game and builds its record up on the nonconference schedule, I'll ask you why the SEC gets a pass on theirs.
At worst, the ACC has been the fourth-best conference this year behind the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 - and the Big 12 is being held together by duct tape and toothpicks. The Pac-12 has already fired three of its coaches (all in the putrid Pac-12 South) with more potentially on the way.
-- Speaking of fired coaches, it appears that the ACC will get through this offseason without a single coaching change. That hasn't happened since the 2005-2006 offseason. Although it's not for lack of trying on the part of the fanbases. Marylanders are already chomping at the bit, of course, to get rid of Randy Edsall. Can't imagine why. And Bostonites want Frank Spaziani gone, but he's not going anywhere. (Via BC Interruption.)
-- After the talk of being "Oregon of the East" during last year's uniform unveilings (and getting out-Oregonned so hard by Maryland - and come to think of it, VT as well, but much more quietly) that died down fast this year. UVA skipped two combinations entirely (white over blue and orange over orange, the latter of which THANK GOD) and only used two combinations more than once (orange over blue three times and white over white four times.) All that hype over fancy new unis and we roll with white on white as much as possible.
Everything else was used just once. I could go the rest of my life and be happy never seeing blue/blue in any uniform style ever, but the white jersey with orange pants is too sharp to ignore. And it's a little disappointing to see so little of the classic blue and whites. There's still the bowl game, though.
-- UVA got very solid representation on the all-ACC teams released today. I don't think I can complain about any snubs; I guess I would have liked to see Perry Jones (honorable mention) get more consideration than Andre Ellington (2nd team) simply because Jones is a much greater receiving threat than Ellington, but I think overall it's pretty decent. And ohbytheway, nobody had more players on the first team than UVA did. Only Florida State tied us, with three. Here's the breakdown as far as UVA is concerned:
1st team: Austin Pasztor, Matt Conrath, Chase Minnifield
2nd team: Oday Aboushi, Steve Greer
HM: Perry Jones, Rodney McLeod, Anthony Mihota
-- Big basketball game tomorrow. Big one. It's kind of a bittersweet moment in history for me; it'll be the first time I've ever cheered against Michigan in anything. (I've always said that if this ever happened, I'd choose sides based on who needs the win more; that is clearly Virginia. It'll make up for my answer to Gobbler Country about picking a U-M win over a UVA one on Saturday.) On the plus side, you can expect a pretty well-informed game preview.
Monday, October 31, 2011
weekend review
I said in the game preview that I still have a hard time getting used to the idea of Miami as an every-year opponent. Maybe I shouldn't: this marks a slightly surprising four wins in the last six games against the Hurricanes. Even when I was going on about how nobody thinks UVA has a football program, that stat took me aback just a little. With UVA on a clear upward path and Miami looking down the barrel of a flamethrower, that might tilt even more in our favor in the years to come.
It is now Maryland week. It really took me until my fourth year at UVA to truly form the proper amount of hatred for Maryland - that was when Maryland's then-president, C.D. Mote, cast idiotic aspersions on the mental state of UVA students (specifically out-of-state ones) who chose UVA, claiming that they "don't know any better." As an out-of-state student, that planted the seed, and dealings with Maryland fans in the years since have watered and nourished it. It certainly helps that their new football coach follows perfectly in the steps of the old one in, in declaring that "Maryland doesn't lose to Virginia" right before they do.
To add to the fun, UVA is on the cusp of its goal - or at least, the one I and practically every fan of the program set for it. Bowl eligibility awaits if the outcome is favorable, and there's no better way to back up Mike London's recruiting message of a program on the rise than by actually being on the rise. Getting the prize against Maryland would be a nice little cherry on top - the more we beat them, the more they'll be picking through our leftovers in their own state. (P.S. - And if we win, Maryland is officially shut out of bowl consideration.)
Let's kick off the week's fun by running through the predictions.
- Barring any big plays of 50 yards or more (which are sometimes just random occurrences) none of UVA's running backs exceed their season rushing averages.
Clifton Richardson was the only one for whom this prediction came true, and no, I'm not taking 1/3 of a point.
- UVA runs for fewer than 153 yards total, giving us our second-worst day on the ground of the season.
This failing to come true was a monster reason why we won. We actually racked up over 200, again.
- Miami gets at least two sacks.
Another reason we won: Miami didn't get a single one.
- Kris Burd and Tim Smith get at least five catches each.
We're passing less than I thought we might, so this failed to come true as well. Burd and Smith did, however, tie for the team lead with three each, which accounted for half of all receptions, so I'm not taking credit in the final count but I think this one counts as a moral victory.
- Mike Rocco throws for over 250 yards.
No, but again, the only thing that prevented him doing so was the small number of actual attempts. Perry Jones's halfback pass pushed the total number to 263, and thanks to that 78-yard slant to Jones, Rocco averaged 11+ yards an attempt. Even taking that out, Rocco well exceeded his previous average of 6.52 YPA; minus the Jones slant, Rocco got to about 7.8. If we were averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt, we'd be ranked 38th in nation instead of 83rd. So that's terrific production, and again I think I deserve a moral victory on this prediction.
- Lamar Miller gets less than 4.5 yards a carry.
He had 4.4, much of that coming after our defense was gearing to stop big plays instead of slamming the door on the run game at the line of scrimmage. For much of the game he was averaging about 1.5. Here's what I put in the game preview: " If it takes til the fourth quarter for Miller to get to 80 yards, the defense has done its job and we might even be winning the game." Check and check. Actually, he ended up with 70. Also, on fourth quarter down-and-distances of 4th and 2, Miller averaged exactly negative-1. Most important stat of the day.
- UVA picks off Jacory Harris at least once, but he throws more TDs than INTs anyway.
I think I'm gonna break this into two predictions and call it 1-for-2. As expected, Harris wasn't bad at all, but we didn't get an interception off of him.
So I go 2-for-8, which kinda sucks, but moral victories would've gotten me to .500. Season total is 22 for 59; 4-4 in outcome predictions; and I did win against the spread, thank you, where I'm now 4-4 as well.
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Before we get into Senior Seasons it is my sad duty to report that the GP South Blue Devils fell 46-7 in the first round of the state playoffs; they had no answer for Martin Luther King's four-star running back, Cincy-bound Dennis Norfleet, who is ranked 241st in the Rivals 250. That ends the Blue Devils' season at 6-4, but I think hopes will be high for next year as we're riding a two-season playoff streak - although I think South will be moved up a division (to the second-highest of six) in their conference's biannual realignment, which will make the road a little tougher.
Anyway, here we go - Senior Seasons.
Victory Christian 68, Foundation Academy 0: Demeitre Brim accounted for three total touchdowns and 190 total yards. VCA is 7-2.
Bayside 31, Cox 8: Anthony Cooper scored once on a reverse and once on a 32-yard TD pass; the pass put Cooper's quarterback Deion Stitt over E.J. Manuel's passing yardage record at Bayside. Bayside is 8-2.
Landstown 20, Ocean Lakes 14: Eli Harold (Lakes) and Kyle Dockins (Landstown) each had a touchdown catch in the upset win. Both teams are now 7-2.
Norfolk Christian 35, Greenbrier Christian 0: Kwontie Moore had 112 total yards rushing and receiving, and three touchdowns, two of the former and one of the latter. Mario Nixon also caught a 65-yard TD pass. NCS is 7-2 and winners of the Tidewater Conference championship.
Varina 54, Glen Allen 7: Maurice Canady connected on 6 of 7 passes and threw three touchdowns. Varina is 7-1.
Ware County 39, Wayne County 3 (Greyson Lambert; Wayne is 4-4-1.)
Gonzaga 17, DeMatha 9 (Michael Moore; DeMatha is 6-3.)
St. Joseph 48, Bridgeton 0 (Max Valles; St. Joseph is 7-0.)
Hunterdon Central 35, Franklin 0 (Kye Morgan; Franklin is 5-2.)
Islip 35, Eastport-South Manor 0 (Sean Karl; ESM is 3-5.)
Malvern Prep 14, Episcopal 0 (Michael Mooney; Malvern is 7-1.)
Central Bucks South 28, Pennridge 14 (Matt Johns; CB South is 6-3.)
Stratford 35, Waller 20 (Kelvin Rainey; Stratford is 6-3.)
Hampton 14, Kecoughtan 0 (Jamall Brown; Hampton is 7-2.)
Green Run 34, Kellam 8 (Mark Hall; Green Run is 4-5.)
Hermitage 41, Godwin Mills 7 (Andre Miles-Redmond; Hermitage is 8-0.)
Last week:
Wayne County 21, Liberty County 20: Greyson Lambert was 13-of-21 passing with 108 yards and three touchdowns.
So here's where we stand after this week's play - the following players have finished with their regular seasons:
C.J. Moore - Buford (GA)
Greyson Lambert - Wayne County (GA)
Sean Karl - Eastport-South Manor (NY)
Anthony Cooper - Bayside (VA)
Moore/Nixon/Wahee/Wynn - Norfolk Christian (VA)
Lambert's and Karl's teams failed to qualify for whatever version of the playoffs their particular state has. (In Karl's case it's even weirder because Long Island doesn't play with the rest of New York state.) Lambert and Wayne County finished 4-4-1 and lost a tiebreaker with two other teams in their region. ESM is a newish team and just isn't very good; they finish 3-5.
The others (Moore, Cooper, and the NCS boys) await as-yet-unknown playoff opponents. At least I think so in the case of NCS. Buford is a powerhouse and it'll take a major, major upset for any team in Georgia's AA division to prevent them from winning a fifth straight state title. Bayside will be on the road in their first playoff week.
The vast majority of the rest of the recruits finish up their regular seasons next week, with only four relevant schools playing the regular season beyond that. Most of them will make it into some form of playoff, so we still have quite a bit of this feature left in us.
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Two conference-carousel stories that bear watching:
-- First is the lawsuit filed by West Virginia in order to get out of the Big East's 27-month notice and hustle on over to the Big 12, because you know that "West Virginia" is always the first thing that pops into your head when you think of the southern Midwest. I have no idea what leg they think they have to stand on, but obviously, if West Virginia can engineer its way out of the Little East in time for next football season, you know that Syracuse and Pitt can't be far behind.
-- Second is the Teel article from last week that suggests Notre Dame and the ACC aren't such farfetched marriage partners after all.
I've long wanted Notre Dame to either sit on their independent selves forever or join the Big Ten where they belong. I mean, they're right in the middle of the Big Ten footprint. They play Big Ten teams all the time. (Well, Michigan, MSU, and Purdue, mostly.) So it's with a great deal of surprise that I find myself warming up to the idea of Notre Dame in the ACC.
Geographically speaking, I'd really prefer if ACC expansion meant the only required change to the logo was to add a couple stars. Notre Dame sits outside that oval. Plus I like traditional games. But that particular Rubicon has been crossed so damn hard, and very long ago. If Notre Dame were the 15th team in the ACC it would hardly matter who the 16th was; the ACC would clearly have cemented its place at the big-boy table. (Not that we need Notre Dame for that, mind you. I've been preaching for years that the ACC would not and will not be a target for Big Ten or SEC expansion, and it still won't.)
Still, it makes for a hell of a conference. I suppose UConn would be the logical 16th team, but they'd have to show the ACC that their graduation issue is on path for recovery. Right now their 2013 tourney eligibility is in serious jeopardy because of that, thanks to the new rules just implemented.
But what really warms the cockles of my heart is the possibility that a 16-team football conference with a 4x4 pod system would greatly improve the we-never-play-those-guys-any-more problem. If they did it right. I don't hold out a great deal of hope that they will. Remember that one of my largest criticisms of playoff-wanters is that they're confusing wanting a playoff with wanting their playoff. Just as there will be a lot of disappointed people when a playoff is eventually formed, I imagine I'm likely to be let down by a future 16-team conference and its schedule. Still, it doesn't stop me from having ideas of my own, which I will let you know about.....tomorrow.
Plus, I mean obviously Notre Dame has decent hoops, and not only that but they'd also be lacrosse team #6. Hello autobid that we don't need.
-- Oday Aboushi is the ACC lineman of the week. That makes four times in nine weeks a UVA lineman has been chosen, with Aboushi and Anthony Mihota splitting the honors evenly. Raise your hand if you saw 4-of-9 coming, and then keep it there if you thought that would happen without Morgan Moses or Austin Pasztor being named. I don't see any hands.
-- Are you voting for Chase Minnifield every day? Why not?
It is now Maryland week. It really took me until my fourth year at UVA to truly form the proper amount of hatred for Maryland - that was when Maryland's then-president, C.D. Mote, cast idiotic aspersions on the mental state of UVA students (specifically out-of-state ones) who chose UVA, claiming that they "don't know any better." As an out-of-state student, that planted the seed, and dealings with Maryland fans in the years since have watered and nourished it. It certainly helps that their new football coach follows perfectly in the steps of the old one in, in declaring that "Maryland doesn't lose to Virginia" right before they do.
To add to the fun, UVA is on the cusp of its goal - or at least, the one I and practically every fan of the program set for it. Bowl eligibility awaits if the outcome is favorable, and there's no better way to back up Mike London's recruiting message of a program on the rise than by actually being on the rise. Getting the prize against Maryland would be a nice little cherry on top - the more we beat them, the more they'll be picking through our leftovers in their own state. (P.S. - And if we win, Maryland is officially shut out of bowl consideration.)
Let's kick off the week's fun by running through the predictions.
- Barring any big plays of 50 yards or more (which are sometimes just random occurrences) none of UVA's running backs exceed their season rushing averages.
Clifton Richardson was the only one for whom this prediction came true, and no, I'm not taking 1/3 of a point.
- UVA runs for fewer than 153 yards total, giving us our second-worst day on the ground of the season.
This failing to come true was a monster reason why we won. We actually racked up over 200, again.
- Miami gets at least two sacks.
Another reason we won: Miami didn't get a single one.
- Kris Burd and Tim Smith get at least five catches each.
We're passing less than I thought we might, so this failed to come true as well. Burd and Smith did, however, tie for the team lead with three each, which accounted for half of all receptions, so I'm not taking credit in the final count but I think this one counts as a moral victory.
- Mike Rocco throws for over 250 yards.
No, but again, the only thing that prevented him doing so was the small number of actual attempts. Perry Jones's halfback pass pushed the total number to 263, and thanks to that 78-yard slant to Jones, Rocco averaged 11+ yards an attempt. Even taking that out, Rocco well exceeded his previous average of 6.52 YPA; minus the Jones slant, Rocco got to about 7.8. If we were averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt, we'd be ranked 38th in nation instead of 83rd. So that's terrific production, and again I think I deserve a moral victory on this prediction.
- Lamar Miller gets less than 4.5 yards a carry.
He had 4.4, much of that coming after our defense was gearing to stop big plays instead of slamming the door on the run game at the line of scrimmage. For much of the game he was averaging about 1.5. Here's what I put in the game preview: " If it takes til the fourth quarter for Miller to get to 80 yards, the defense has done its job and we might even be winning the game." Check and check. Actually, he ended up with 70. Also, on fourth quarter down-and-distances of 4th and 2, Miller averaged exactly negative-1. Most important stat of the day.
- UVA picks off Jacory Harris at least once, but he throws more TDs than INTs anyway.
I think I'm gonna break this into two predictions and call it 1-for-2. As expected, Harris wasn't bad at all, but we didn't get an interception off of him.
So I go 2-for-8, which kinda sucks, but moral victories would've gotten me to .500. Season total is 22 for 59; 4-4 in outcome predictions; and I did win against the spread, thank you, where I'm now 4-4 as well.
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Before we get into Senior Seasons it is my sad duty to report that the GP South Blue Devils fell 46-7 in the first round of the state playoffs; they had no answer for Martin Luther King's four-star running back, Cincy-bound Dennis Norfleet, who is ranked 241st in the Rivals 250. That ends the Blue Devils' season at 6-4, but I think hopes will be high for next year as we're riding a two-season playoff streak - although I think South will be moved up a division (to the second-highest of six) in their conference's biannual realignment, which will make the road a little tougher.
Anyway, here we go - Senior Seasons.
Victory Christian 68, Foundation Academy 0: Demeitre Brim accounted for three total touchdowns and 190 total yards. VCA is 7-2.
Bayside 31, Cox 8: Anthony Cooper scored once on a reverse and once on a 32-yard TD pass; the pass put Cooper's quarterback Deion Stitt over E.J. Manuel's passing yardage record at Bayside. Bayside is 8-2.
Landstown 20, Ocean Lakes 14: Eli Harold (Lakes) and Kyle Dockins (Landstown) each had a touchdown catch in the upset win. Both teams are now 7-2.
Norfolk Christian 35, Greenbrier Christian 0: Kwontie Moore had 112 total yards rushing and receiving, and three touchdowns, two of the former and one of the latter. Mario Nixon also caught a 65-yard TD pass. NCS is 7-2 and winners of the Tidewater Conference championship.
Varina 54, Glen Allen 7: Maurice Canady connected on 6 of 7 passes and threw three touchdowns. Varina is 7-1.
Ware County 39, Wayne County 3 (Greyson Lambert; Wayne is 4-4-1.)
Gonzaga 17, DeMatha 9 (Michael Moore; DeMatha is 6-3.)
St. Joseph 48, Bridgeton 0 (Max Valles; St. Joseph is 7-0.)
Hunterdon Central 35, Franklin 0 (Kye Morgan; Franklin is 5-2.)
Islip 35, Eastport-South Manor 0 (Sean Karl; ESM is 3-5.)
Malvern Prep 14, Episcopal 0 (Michael Mooney; Malvern is 7-1.)
Central Bucks South 28, Pennridge 14 (Matt Johns; CB South is 6-3.)
Stratford 35, Waller 20 (Kelvin Rainey; Stratford is 6-3.)
Hampton 14, Kecoughtan 0 (Jamall Brown; Hampton is 7-2.)
Green Run 34, Kellam 8 (Mark Hall; Green Run is 4-5.)
Hermitage 41, Godwin Mills 7 (Andre Miles-Redmond; Hermitage is 8-0.)
Last week:
Wayne County 21, Liberty County 20: Greyson Lambert was 13-of-21 passing with 108 yards and three touchdowns.
So here's where we stand after this week's play - the following players have finished with their regular seasons:
C.J. Moore - Buford (GA)
Greyson Lambert - Wayne County (GA)
Sean Karl - Eastport-South Manor (NY)
Anthony Cooper - Bayside (VA)
Moore/Nixon/Wahee/Wynn - Norfolk Christian (VA)
Lambert's and Karl's teams failed to qualify for whatever version of the playoffs their particular state has. (In Karl's case it's even weirder because Long Island doesn't play with the rest of New York state.) Lambert and Wayne County finished 4-4-1 and lost a tiebreaker with two other teams in their region. ESM is a newish team and just isn't very good; they finish 3-5.
The others (Moore, Cooper, and the NCS boys) await as-yet-unknown playoff opponents. At least I think so in the case of NCS. Buford is a powerhouse and it'll take a major, major upset for any team in Georgia's AA division to prevent them from winning a fifth straight state title. Bayside will be on the road in their first playoff week.
The vast majority of the rest of the recruits finish up their regular seasons next week, with only four relevant schools playing the regular season beyond that. Most of them will make it into some form of playoff, so we still have quite a bit of this feature left in us.
*******************************************************
Two conference-carousel stories that bear watching:
-- First is the lawsuit filed by West Virginia in order to get out of the Big East's 27-month notice and hustle on over to the Big 12, because you know that "West Virginia" is always the first thing that pops into your head when you think of the southern Midwest. I have no idea what leg they think they have to stand on, but obviously, if West Virginia can engineer its way out of the Little East in time for next football season, you know that Syracuse and Pitt can't be far behind.
-- Second is the Teel article from last week that suggests Notre Dame and the ACC aren't such farfetched marriage partners after all.
I've long wanted Notre Dame to either sit on their independent selves forever or join the Big Ten where they belong. I mean, they're right in the middle of the Big Ten footprint. They play Big Ten teams all the time. (Well, Michigan, MSU, and Purdue, mostly.) So it's with a great deal of surprise that I find myself warming up to the idea of Notre Dame in the ACC.
Geographically speaking, I'd really prefer if ACC expansion meant the only required change to the logo was to add a couple stars. Notre Dame sits outside that oval. Plus I like traditional games. But that particular Rubicon has been crossed so damn hard, and very long ago. If Notre Dame were the 15th team in the ACC it would hardly matter who the 16th was; the ACC would clearly have cemented its place at the big-boy table. (Not that we need Notre Dame for that, mind you. I've been preaching for years that the ACC would not and will not be a target for Big Ten or SEC expansion, and it still won't.)
Still, it makes for a hell of a conference. I suppose UConn would be the logical 16th team, but they'd have to show the ACC that their graduation issue is on path for recovery. Right now their 2013 tourney eligibility is in serious jeopardy because of that, thanks to the new rules just implemented.
But what really warms the cockles of my heart is the possibility that a 16-team football conference with a 4x4 pod system would greatly improve the we-never-play-those-guys-any-more problem. If they did it right. I don't hold out a great deal of hope that they will. Remember that one of my largest criticisms of playoff-wanters is that they're confusing wanting a playoff with wanting their playoff. Just as there will be a lot of disappointed people when a playoff is eventually formed, I imagine I'm likely to be let down by a future 16-team conference and its schedule. Still, it doesn't stop me from having ideas of my own, which I will let you know about.....tomorrow.
Plus, I mean obviously Notre Dame has decent hoops, and not only that but they'd also be lacrosse team #6. Hello autobid that we don't need.
-- Oday Aboushi is the ACC lineman of the week. That makes four times in nine weeks a UVA lineman has been chosen, with Aboushi and Anthony Mihota splitting the honors evenly. Raise your hand if you saw 4-of-9 coming, and then keep it there if you thought that would happen without Morgan Moses or Austin Pasztor being named. I don't see any hands.
-- Are you voting for Chase Minnifield every day? Why not?
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
the recruit: Andre Miles-Redmond
Name: Andre Miles-Redmond
Position: OG
Hometown: Richmond
School: Hermitage
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 260
24/7: 85; three stars
ESPN: 78; three stars; #39 OG; Atlantic Reg. #93; VA #13
Rivals: 5.5; three stars; VA #20
Scout: three stars; ##73 OG
Other offers: Virginia Tech, NC State
It took just over a month for UVA to lock up its entire offensive line class** and two quick days in June for half of that to show up. Andre Miles-Redmond committed to UVA in the middle of UVA's summer commitment rush, one day after Sean Karl.
AMR got his three offers early in the process - all before April - so that was the three-horse race; if he was gonna get any more, he'd've had them by the time he committed on the last day of June. Really, it was going to be either UVA or VT almost all the way. He always had nice things to say about NC State but sounded more excited about the instate schools.
Not a big guy, AMR is in fact the smallest of the O-line prospects UVA will sign in February, but that shouldn't make a difference in the end as he clearly has 30 pounds of growth in him. ESPN calls him 6'3" while the other services go with 6'4", though, so it's probably a short 6'4" rather than bordering on 6'5", which would get him to tackle height. ESPN's review is also helpful, and you don't even have to go past the first sentence: "Miles-Redmond is a tough productive run blocker who flashes good pass protection skills." In other words, run blocking is his thing and he can sometimes pass block. Miles-Redmond plays right tackle at Hermitage, but clearly projects as a college guard.
This puts him in good company, because three of UVA's four lineman commits project at guard; Karl is the only one that looks like a definite tackle. (If I had to move a second prospect to tackle, it'd probably be Ryan Doull.) So AMR has a lot of competition. Plus, UVA has a good succession plan at guard. Austin Pasztor will be gone next year, but Luke Bowanko will only be a junior. Whether it's Matt Mihalik or Conner Davis (or even Jay Whitmire) that takes over for Pasztor next year is irrelevant since Miles-Redmond is never going to unglue himself from the bench in 2012, not at 260 pounds. Or even 270. Bowanko will be a senior and Davis a junior when AMR is ready to emerge from his redshirt cocoon, and I'm not stupid enough to predict how these three guards will compete with each other. One may break up the logjam by moving to center. (Mooney?) Who knows. What I will say is that it's not too likely that Miles-Redmond (or any of the three guards) makes much of an appearance on the field til his sophomore year, which will be 2014. This competition and succession plan isn't the best thing for the minutes of an individual player like Miles-Redmond, but it's the healthiest thing imaginable for UVA.
******************************************
-- Let's see if we can get all our offensive lineman named ACC OL of the Week. Last week it was Mihota; this week, Aboushi. Robert Randolph was national co-kicker of the week for the second straight week, as well as ACC Specialist OTW, and Cam Johnson got ACC DL honors for going RAAAAWWWWRRR.
-- I did say UVA's thrillingish win got little press because it was UVA-IU and not involving some of the bigger boys, but Pat Forde thought enough of it to give it a mention. In kind of a unique way, actually. I've always had this impression of Forde as a guy who's mostly interested in the top half of BCS conferences, southern teams in particular, and occasional nods to the absolute worst of the worst. So it's nice to get a call out. Special mini-joke: Rating Michigan's comeback over Notre Dame a "Joe Montana" on a scale of 1 to 10. I don't know if he did that on purpose or not but it's moderately evil and I like it.
-- I'd keep writing but the Benadryl is starting to kick in. It maks mee spel things funnie.
Position: OG
Hometown: Richmond
School: Hermitage
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 260
24/7: 85; three stars
ESPN: 78; three stars; #39 OG; Atlantic Reg. #93; VA #13
Rivals: 5.5; three stars; VA #20
Scout: three stars; ##73 OG
Other offers: Virginia Tech, NC State
It took just over a month for UVA to lock up its entire offensive line class** and two quick days in June for half of that to show up. Andre Miles-Redmond committed to UVA in the middle of UVA's summer commitment rush, one day after Sean Karl.
AMR got his three offers early in the process - all before April - so that was the three-horse race; if he was gonna get any more, he'd've had them by the time he committed on the last day of June. Really, it was going to be either UVA or VT almost all the way. He always had nice things to say about NC State but sounded more excited about the instate schools.
Not a big guy, AMR is in fact the smallest of the O-line prospects UVA will sign in February, but that shouldn't make a difference in the end as he clearly has 30 pounds of growth in him. ESPN calls him 6'3" while the other services go with 6'4", though, so it's probably a short 6'4" rather than bordering on 6'5", which would get him to tackle height. ESPN's review is also helpful, and you don't even have to go past the first sentence: "Miles-Redmond is a tough productive run blocker who flashes good pass protection skills." In other words, run blocking is his thing and he can sometimes pass block. Miles-Redmond plays right tackle at Hermitage, but clearly projects as a college guard.
This puts him in good company, because three of UVA's four lineman commits project at guard; Karl is the only one that looks like a definite tackle. (If I had to move a second prospect to tackle, it'd probably be Ryan Doull.) So AMR has a lot of competition. Plus, UVA has a good succession plan at guard. Austin Pasztor will be gone next year, but Luke Bowanko will only be a junior. Whether it's Matt Mihalik or Conner Davis (or even Jay Whitmire) that takes over for Pasztor next year is irrelevant since Miles-Redmond is never going to unglue himself from the bench in 2012, not at 260 pounds. Or even 270. Bowanko will be a senior and Davis a junior when AMR is ready to emerge from his redshirt cocoon, and I'm not stupid enough to predict how these three guards will compete with each other. One may break up the logjam by moving to center. (Mooney?) Who knows. What I will say is that it's not too likely that Miles-Redmond (or any of the three guards) makes much of an appearance on the field til his sophomore year, which will be 2014. This competition and succession plan isn't the best thing for the minutes of an individual player like Miles-Redmond, but it's the healthiest thing imaginable for UVA.
******************************************
-- Let's see if we can get all our offensive lineman named ACC OL of the Week. Last week it was Mihota; this week, Aboushi. Robert Randolph was national co-kicker of the week for the second straight week, as well as ACC Specialist OTW, and Cam Johnson got ACC DL honors for going RAAAAWWWWRRR.
-- I did say UVA's thrillingish win got little press because it was UVA-IU and not involving some of the bigger boys, but Pat Forde thought enough of it to give it a mention. In kind of a unique way, actually. I've always had this impression of Forde as a guy who's mostly interested in the top half of BCS conferences, southern teams in particular, and occasional nods to the absolute worst of the worst. So it's nice to get a call out. Special mini-joke: Rating Michigan's comeback over Notre Dame a "Joe Montana" on a scale of 1 to 10. I don't know if he did that on purpose or not but it's moderately evil and I like it.
-- I'd keep writing but the Benadryl is starting to kick in. It maks mee spel things funnie.
Monday, October 25, 2010
weekend review
Short update this week as far as the recruiting board goes. Just the addition of WR Timmy Keith and some readability fixes.
The depth chart is a lot more interesting. The bad news there is that I'm not gonna put in the actual changes til later in the week. The good news is that intrigue abounds. It's an intriguing web of intrigue.
- First off, Morgan Moses is now so huge, and awesome at football, that he's the starter at not one, but two positions. The whole right side of the line is his. Tackle and guard.
Lot of ORs running around, as in "Morgan Moses OR Oday Aboushi" at right tackle. Right guard is "Morgan Moses OR B.J. Cabbell," and left tackle is "Oday Aboushi OR Landon Bradley." The interpretation is clear: If Bradley can play and be effective with a huge cast on his hand (following his hand surgery) that turns it into a club, then Bradley will start at LT, Aboushi at RT, and Moses at RG. If not, Aboushi moves to LT, Moses mans the other tackle spot, and Cabbell hangs on to his starting gig for one more week.
Either way, the writing that was on the wall a couple weeks ago is thisclose to collecting on its promise: Cabbell will be a backup sooner rather than later, and Moses is getting his job. Bradley was a whipping boy of mine last year, but his play has improved to a level resembling acceptable. I like Moses better at guard, which is his obvious long-term home. I don't have much of a preference for this week, having not the faintest idea how comfortable Bradley can be without the ability to grip with one hand. It's his right hand, which speeds his return - a left tackle could never protect the edge without his left hand.
- Linebacker is another fun story. Aaron Taliaferro is on the outside now - the strong side backup behind Laroy Reynolds. Is Mr. Lazarus (so nicknamed in camp because of his rise from the dead) headed back to the figurative tomb? Darnell Carter moves over to replace Taliaferro as the half-starter in the middle with Steve Greer.
Editorial: I'd like to see more time for Greer. He wasn't the team's leading tackler as a freshman for nothing. Teams don't run around the edge on Virginia for nothing. The tackles aren't being missed in the middle.
**********************************************
Newsy stuff this week is one item only: RIP Fran Crippen. Former UVA swimmer and older brother of current UVA swimmer Claire Crippen. His death during a 10K swim race in the UAE is all over the news.
Perhaps a former swimmer who's been to that part of the world (me, if you're unclear) can clarify a few things for curious readers?
First, I'm not going to place as much blame on FINA (the worldwide governing body for swimming) as the media is looking to. Water that's too warm is really hard to come by. Swim meets are typically held in cold-ass water, because cold water is faster. Warm water relaxes the muscles. The temperature of open-water events obviously isn't controlled, but having regulations for swimming in water that's too warm is like having regulations for ski hills that aren't steep enough. Bad for competition, bad for your times, why would you worry about it? It's likely the strongest amount of blame should be placed on the meet organizers for a lack of decent safety procedures.
After all, your average marathon has tons of precautions against health issues. A 10K swim race is eons more demanding than a marathon. It's like an Ironman Triathlon. Blame, if you must call it that, can fall squarely on Crippen's shoulders for continuing despite not feeling well, but besides the shortest of the shortest of sprints, full-body fatigue is par for the course for swimmers. It's not like basketball or football where you can be subbed out. Just you and your body, and if you don't drag yourself out of the pool after an event - especially a distance event - with every muscle burning like hellfire, then you didn't swim hard enough. You get out and never want to move again. Laying on the pool deck in just your swimsuit for the rest of your life sounds just fine. Crippen can't have been expected to know the difference between the extreme fatigue he'd normally feel at the end of a 10K and life-threatening exhaustion.
Which is why FINA and the Emiratis are being total dicks about this. Callously blaming it on "overexertion." Yes, it's probably true. But if they were real swimming officials they'd know overexertion is pretty much normal. The whole field was overexerting themselves.
As for the water temperature, again with the dickitude in insisting the water was "only" 84 degrees. As if there's this huge lifesaving difference in the three degrees between that and the 87 degrees that the swimmers are saying. I've been to the UAE. On a ship, which wouldn't you know, we made it our business to know what the water temperature was. (You have to in order to keep the machinery running properly.) In the Persian Gulf itself, the water temps were in the mid-90s; close to shore and in-port, they never dropped below 100. 102, 103, usually. Granted, I was there in July, not October. Granted, Fujairah, where the event was held (not Dubai, as the reports sometimes claim), is outside the Gulf - that makes a difference, the water is warmer, saltier, and way grodier and jellyfishier inside. All the same, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if an official inquest finds the water was above 90. It's the fucking desert.
**************************************
Alright, let's move on and check in on the senior seasons. Here in Michigan, it's already playoff time for the high schoolers. (Go GP South Blue Devils.) One more week of games and that'll be true for Pennsylvania, too. Maryland and North Carolina, two more weeks; Virginia, three. We'll keep you updated throughout, of course.
L.C. Bird 14, Clover Hill 13: Bird puts the ball in the hands of their running backs for the most part (Anthony Harris only threw five passes and completed three), but when they trailed 13-0 in the second half they turned to their best athlete. Harris scored both Bird touchdowns, the winner on fourth down, and Bird pulled out the win with a goal-line stand.
Dinwiddie 33, Petersburg 21: Kevin Green came out on the short end of a good old-fashioned quarterback duel. Green ran for 127 yards and two TDs and completed 17-of-36 for 160 more, plus another touchdown. He was also picked off twice in the loss; the winning QB, whose stats were equally gaudy, is VT commit Chris Hall.
Phoebus 37, Hampton 12: Caleb Taylor's defense held David Watford in check. Watford was just 5-of-18 passing. He ran for an early touchdown to cut the score to 10-6, and threw another one in garbage time.
H.D. Woodson 22, Ballou 20: Darius Redman helped to seal a big upset by intercepting a pass with 90 seconds left. Then he nearly blew it by getting greedy and trying to return it for six; the ball was stripped and Redman had to go back on defense. D'oh. Time for a little coaching moment. Redman also caught an 8-yard touchdown pass.
Hermitage 48, Douglas Freeman 0 (Diamonte Bailey)
I.C. Norcom 48, Granby 7 (Kameron Mack)
Cox 22, First Colonial 20 (Ross Burbank)
Green Run 34, First Colonial 28 (David Dean)
Bethel 42, Menchville 10 (Clifton Richardson)
Episcopal 19, St. Christopher's 15 (Thompson Brown)
Landon (Md.) 22, St. S/St. A 0 (Darius Lee)
Damascus 35, Northwood 16 (Brandon Phelps)
Stone Bridge 50, Langley 10 (Rob Burns)
Good Counsel 37, St. John's 14 (Vincent Croce)
DeMatha 39, Bishop O'Connell 17 (Jordan Lomax, Kelby Johnson)
Independence 62, Rocky River 17 (Adrian Gamble)
Mt. Lebanon 27, Peters Township 16 (Tim Cwalina)
That is it for now. Later in the week: basketball! That time of year. Weird, huh? Football season announces its presence in such a way that it's impossible to miss, even if you try. Basketball season goes "um, hi."
Wait, no. That's not it for now. Also there is the AP poll study, in which the appearance of bias grows steadily stronger. Teaser: only three of 25 teams did not get any regional help, and the West Coast voters are off the hook this week. See the archive page for the rest.
The depth chart is a lot more interesting. The bad news there is that I'm not gonna put in the actual changes til later in the week. The good news is that intrigue abounds. It's an intriguing web of intrigue.
- First off, Morgan Moses is now so huge, and awesome at football, that he's the starter at not one, but two positions. The whole right side of the line is his. Tackle and guard.
Lot of ORs running around, as in "Morgan Moses OR Oday Aboushi" at right tackle. Right guard is "Morgan Moses OR B.J. Cabbell," and left tackle is "Oday Aboushi OR Landon Bradley." The interpretation is clear: If Bradley can play and be effective with a huge cast on his hand (following his hand surgery) that turns it into a club, then Bradley will start at LT, Aboushi at RT, and Moses at RG. If not, Aboushi moves to LT, Moses mans the other tackle spot, and Cabbell hangs on to his starting gig for one more week.
Either way, the writing that was on the wall a couple weeks ago is thisclose to collecting on its promise: Cabbell will be a backup sooner rather than later, and Moses is getting his job. Bradley was a whipping boy of mine last year, but his play has improved to a level resembling acceptable. I like Moses better at guard, which is his obvious long-term home. I don't have much of a preference for this week, having not the faintest idea how comfortable Bradley can be without the ability to grip with one hand. It's his right hand, which speeds his return - a left tackle could never protect the edge without his left hand.
- Linebacker is another fun story. Aaron Taliaferro is on the outside now - the strong side backup behind Laroy Reynolds. Is Mr. Lazarus (so nicknamed in camp because of his rise from the dead) headed back to the figurative tomb? Darnell Carter moves over to replace Taliaferro as the half-starter in the middle with Steve Greer.
Editorial: I'd like to see more time for Greer. He wasn't the team's leading tackler as a freshman for nothing. Teams don't run around the edge on Virginia for nothing. The tackles aren't being missed in the middle.
**********************************************
Newsy stuff this week is one item only: RIP Fran Crippen. Former UVA swimmer and older brother of current UVA swimmer Claire Crippen. His death during a 10K swim race in the UAE is all over the news.
Perhaps a former swimmer who's been to that part of the world (me, if you're unclear) can clarify a few things for curious readers?
First, I'm not going to place as much blame on FINA (the worldwide governing body for swimming) as the media is looking to. Water that's too warm is really hard to come by. Swim meets are typically held in cold-ass water, because cold water is faster. Warm water relaxes the muscles. The temperature of open-water events obviously isn't controlled, but having regulations for swimming in water that's too warm is like having regulations for ski hills that aren't steep enough. Bad for competition, bad for your times, why would you worry about it? It's likely the strongest amount of blame should be placed on the meet organizers for a lack of decent safety procedures.
After all, your average marathon has tons of precautions against health issues. A 10K swim race is eons more demanding than a marathon. It's like an Ironman Triathlon. Blame, if you must call it that, can fall squarely on Crippen's shoulders for continuing despite not feeling well, but besides the shortest of the shortest of sprints, full-body fatigue is par for the course for swimmers. It's not like basketball or football where you can be subbed out. Just you and your body, and if you don't drag yourself out of the pool after an event - especially a distance event - with every muscle burning like hellfire, then you didn't swim hard enough. You get out and never want to move again. Laying on the pool deck in just your swimsuit for the rest of your life sounds just fine. Crippen can't have been expected to know the difference between the extreme fatigue he'd normally feel at the end of a 10K and life-threatening exhaustion.
Which is why FINA and the Emiratis are being total dicks about this. Callously blaming it on "overexertion." Yes, it's probably true. But if they were real swimming officials they'd know overexertion is pretty much normal. The whole field was overexerting themselves.
As for the water temperature, again with the dickitude in insisting the water was "only" 84 degrees. As if there's this huge lifesaving difference in the three degrees between that and the 87 degrees that the swimmers are saying. I've been to the UAE. On a ship, which wouldn't you know, we made it our business to know what the water temperature was. (You have to in order to keep the machinery running properly.) In the Persian Gulf itself, the water temps were in the mid-90s; close to shore and in-port, they never dropped below 100. 102, 103, usually. Granted, I was there in July, not October. Granted, Fujairah, where the event was held (not Dubai, as the reports sometimes claim), is outside the Gulf - that makes a difference, the water is warmer, saltier, and way grodier and jellyfishier inside. All the same, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if an official inquest finds the water was above 90. It's the fucking desert.
**************************************
Alright, let's move on and check in on the senior seasons. Here in Michigan, it's already playoff time for the high schoolers. (Go GP South Blue Devils.) One more week of games and that'll be true for Pennsylvania, too. Maryland and North Carolina, two more weeks; Virginia, three. We'll keep you updated throughout, of course.
L.C. Bird 14, Clover Hill 13: Bird puts the ball in the hands of their running backs for the most part (Anthony Harris only threw five passes and completed three), but when they trailed 13-0 in the second half they turned to their best athlete. Harris scored both Bird touchdowns, the winner on fourth down, and Bird pulled out the win with a goal-line stand.
Dinwiddie 33, Petersburg 21: Kevin Green came out on the short end of a good old-fashioned quarterback duel. Green ran for 127 yards and two TDs and completed 17-of-36 for 160 more, plus another touchdown. He was also picked off twice in the loss; the winning QB, whose stats were equally gaudy, is VT commit Chris Hall.
Phoebus 37, Hampton 12: Caleb Taylor's defense held David Watford in check. Watford was just 5-of-18 passing. He ran for an early touchdown to cut the score to 10-6, and threw another one in garbage time.
H.D. Woodson 22, Ballou 20: Darius Redman helped to seal a big upset by intercepting a pass with 90 seconds left. Then he nearly blew it by getting greedy and trying to return it for six; the ball was stripped and Redman had to go back on defense. D'oh. Time for a little coaching moment. Redman also caught an 8-yard touchdown pass.
Hermitage 48, Douglas Freeman 0 (Diamonte Bailey)
I.C. Norcom 48, Granby 7 (Kameron Mack)
Cox 22, First Colonial 20 (Ross Burbank)
Green Run 34, First Colonial 28 (David Dean)
Bethel 42, Menchville 10 (Clifton Richardson)
Episcopal 19, St. Christopher's 15 (Thompson Brown)
Landon (Md.) 22, St. S/St. A 0 (Darius Lee)
Damascus 35, Northwood 16 (Brandon Phelps)
Stone Bridge 50, Langley 10 (Rob Burns)
Good Counsel 37, St. John's 14 (Vincent Croce)
DeMatha 39, Bishop O'Connell 17 (Jordan Lomax, Kelby Johnson)
Independence 62, Rocky River 17 (Adrian Gamble)
Mt. Lebanon 27, Peters Township 16 (Tim Cwalina)
That is it for now. Later in the week: basketball! That time of year. Weird, huh? Football season announces its presence in such a way that it's impossible to miss, even if you try. Basketball season goes "um, hi."
Wait, no. That's not it for now. Also there is the AP poll study, in which the appearance of bias grows steadily stronger. Teaser: only three of 25 teams did not get any regional help, and the West Coast voters are off the hook this week. See the archive page for the rest.
Monday, October 18, 2010
weekend review
I was sorely tempted to take all the recruiting board prospects that are considering both UVA and UNC and drop 'em into the red category. I mean, Travis Hughes had it in his head that UVA had no future until the USC game; did this Saturday convince you that the future is sunshine and oranges? I resisted the urge, however, in favor of calm, rational decision making, which is way less fun. So the recruiting board stays the same this week.
I did give the depth chart a once-over, though. The O-line shuffle continues; actually, it shuffled before the game and I didn't fix it because it was pretty close to game time by the time that was announced, and Friday is my self-allowed day off. Changes for this week:
- Morgan Moses is your new starter at right tackle, as I'm sure you noticed. Backing him up is Aaron Van Kuiken; Sean Cascarano backs up Oday Aboushi on the left side.
- Luke Bowanko moves back to guard to back up B.J. Cabbell.
- Billy Schautz steps in as a backup DE for Jeremiah Mathis, who is now an emergency tight end. That's a temporary arrangement; after the season, I'm moving Mathis back to DE.
Quarterback does not change, as London has announced Marc Verica's job is safe, at least for this week. Obviously an unpopular move, but - I cannot stress this enough - the right one. If there were an exactly equal chance of winning a game with one of the freshmen, then it would make sense to start up a platoon between Metheny and Rocco, and see if one can separate from the other. It would not make sense to pick one or the other. Suppose you choose incorrectly and that becomes evident either this fall or next year; you've wasted a golden chance.
But a QB platoon is a pretty poor way to win a football game. In 99% of QB platoons, the whole is less than the sum of the two parts. Marc Verica would have to be a tremendously awful quarterback to be worse than a platoon of two freshmen that can't separate themselves from each other, one of whom drops snaps. Metheny did that twice against UNC. And London has hinted that the freshmen really don't have full grasp of the offense.
I have serious doubts that the full playbook is in effect for the freshmen, when they come into the game. One or the other, or both, are messing it up. The coaches' job is to win games, not sacrifice games this year for a slightly better chance at winning next year. UVA fans need not worry that London is blind to Verica's many miscues; London sounds like he's more than painfully aware of them and doesn't have a choice.
*******************************************
Anyway, let's move on to what the future holds. Or what the present holds for our future. Or something. Going to arrange it a little differently this week. First, articles where our guy gets a mention; then, all the rest of the scores.
St. Christopher's 28, Bishop Ireton 20: Thompson Brown blocked an Ireton extra point.
Petersburg 31, Hopewell 21: Kevin Green rushed for 100 yards (including a 66-yard TD run), passed for 145 on 9-of-14, threw a touchdown pass, and ran for two more.
Hermitage 43, J.R. Tucker 0 (Diamonte Bailey)
L.C. Bird 34, James River 10 (Anthony Harris)
I.C. Norcom 20, Churchland 14 (Kameron Mack)
Ocean Lakes 43, Green Run 0 (David Dean)
Hampton 63, Bethel 7 (David Watford)
Bullis (MD) 42, St. S/St. A 31 (Darius Lee)
Phoebus 44, Menchville 6 (Caleb Taylor and Clifton Richardson)
Cox 14, Tallwood 0 (Ross Burbank)
Damascus 27, Sherwood 20 (Brandon Phelps)
Stone Bridge 28, James Madison 10 (Rob Burns)
Good Counsel 42, Paul VI 0 (Vincent Croce)
H.D. Woodson 20, McKinley 15 (Darius Redman)
DeMatha 21, St. John's 14 (Jordan Lomax/Kelby Johnson)
South Mecklenburg 42, Independence 35 (Adrian Gamble)
Archbishop Spalding 39, Boys' Latin 29 (Marco Jones)
Mt. Lebanon 21, Bethel Park 7 (Tim Cwalina)
*******************************************
I've been working on a basketball depth chart similar to the football one. It's not easy to get it the way I want it, because basketball positions are a lot more fluid than football. The vast majority of the roster will show up at two different positions at some point in the season. It's not any easier when Sammy Zeglinski gets to have knee surgery. Going into a season suddenly without your veteran point guard is a scary proposition. It seems a safe bet that if he misses this season, he'd be awarded a sixth year, but I think from a program-development standpoint it's a lot better if he can return this year. I'm not holding my breath though. Jontel Evans and Billy Baron just got a lot more important.
Oh, and the AP poll study page is updated with the latest. Very interesting week, with Alabama losing; the voters got a chance to stray off the beaten path. The results are enlightening. Teams got an average of one-third of a rank boost from their regional voters. Whether that's significant, I'm not sure, but it's the strongest regional bias yet. Pac-10 voters were totally in the tank for Oregon State - I think the trend at the end of the day will be that Pac-10 voters are especially prone to overrating the daylights out of the less-known West Coast contenders. But it was Big Ten voters that took the crown for most regionally biased this time around.
I did give the depth chart a once-over, though. The O-line shuffle continues; actually, it shuffled before the game and I didn't fix it because it was pretty close to game time by the time that was announced, and Friday is my self-allowed day off. Changes for this week:
- Morgan Moses is your new starter at right tackle, as I'm sure you noticed. Backing him up is Aaron Van Kuiken; Sean Cascarano backs up Oday Aboushi on the left side.
- Luke Bowanko moves back to guard to back up B.J. Cabbell.
- Billy Schautz steps in as a backup DE for Jeremiah Mathis, who is now an emergency tight end. That's a temporary arrangement; after the season, I'm moving Mathis back to DE.
Quarterback does not change, as London has announced Marc Verica's job is safe, at least for this week. Obviously an unpopular move, but - I cannot stress this enough - the right one. If there were an exactly equal chance of winning a game with one of the freshmen, then it would make sense to start up a platoon between Metheny and Rocco, and see if one can separate from the other. It would not make sense to pick one or the other. Suppose you choose incorrectly and that becomes evident either this fall or next year; you've wasted a golden chance.
But a QB platoon is a pretty poor way to win a football game. In 99% of QB platoons, the whole is less than the sum of the two parts. Marc Verica would have to be a tremendously awful quarterback to be worse than a platoon of two freshmen that can't separate themselves from each other, one of whom drops snaps. Metheny did that twice against UNC. And London has hinted that the freshmen really don't have full grasp of the offense.
“We called a couple formations opposite of what the signal was,” London said. “So there’s issues that all of them have, and the one right now that’s best to run the offense is the one that started the game.
“So this week in practice we’ll continue to keep evaluating them. Maybe the young guy or the other quarterbacks can make the right calls and eliminate the quarterback-center exchange issues and all that. But for the most part, the guy that’s got the most significant reps is the guy that right now is the No. 1 quarterback. And like I said, every day next week is an evaluation day with all of these guys, and that’s the way it’s got to be.”
I have serious doubts that the full playbook is in effect for the freshmen, when they come into the game. One or the other, or both, are messing it up. The coaches' job is to win games, not sacrifice games this year for a slightly better chance at winning next year. UVA fans need not worry that London is blind to Verica's many miscues; London sounds like he's more than painfully aware of them and doesn't have a choice.
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Anyway, let's move on to what the future holds. Or what the present holds for our future. Or something. Going to arrange it a little differently this week. First, articles where our guy gets a mention; then, all the rest of the scores.
St. Christopher's 28, Bishop Ireton 20: Thompson Brown blocked an Ireton extra point.
Petersburg 31, Hopewell 21: Kevin Green rushed for 100 yards (including a 66-yard TD run), passed for 145 on 9-of-14, threw a touchdown pass, and ran for two more.
Hermitage 43, J.R. Tucker 0 (Diamonte Bailey)
L.C. Bird 34, James River 10 (Anthony Harris)
I.C. Norcom 20, Churchland 14 (Kameron Mack)
Ocean Lakes 43, Green Run 0 (David Dean)
Hampton 63, Bethel 7 (David Watford)
Bullis (MD) 42, St. S/St. A 31 (Darius Lee)
Phoebus 44, Menchville 6 (Caleb Taylor and Clifton Richardson)
Cox 14, Tallwood 0 (Ross Burbank)
Damascus 27, Sherwood 20 (Brandon Phelps)
Stone Bridge 28, James Madison 10 (Rob Burns)
Good Counsel 42, Paul VI 0 (Vincent Croce)
H.D. Woodson 20, McKinley 15 (Darius Redman)
DeMatha 21, St. John's 14 (Jordan Lomax/Kelby Johnson)
South Mecklenburg 42, Independence 35 (Adrian Gamble)
Archbishop Spalding 39, Boys' Latin 29 (Marco Jones)
Mt. Lebanon 21, Bethel Park 7 (Tim Cwalina)
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I've been working on a basketball depth chart similar to the football one. It's not easy to get it the way I want it, because basketball positions are a lot more fluid than football. The vast majority of the roster will show up at two different positions at some point in the season. It's not any easier when Sammy Zeglinski gets to have knee surgery. Going into a season suddenly without your veteran point guard is a scary proposition. It seems a safe bet that if he misses this season, he'd be awarded a sixth year, but I think from a program-development standpoint it's a lot better if he can return this year. I'm not holding my breath though. Jontel Evans and Billy Baron just got a lot more important.
Oh, and the AP poll study page is updated with the latest. Very interesting week, with Alabama losing; the voters got a chance to stray off the beaten path. The results are enlightening. Teams got an average of one-third of a rank boost from their regional voters. Whether that's significant, I'm not sure, but it's the strongest regional bias yet. Pac-10 voters were totally in the tank for Oregon State - I think the trend at the end of the day will be that Pac-10 voters are especially prone to overrating the daylights out of the less-known West Coast contenders. But it was Big Ten voters that took the crown for most regionally biased this time around.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
redshirting
In my self-appointed role as Al Groh apologist, even I have to raise my eyebrows at a couple of Al's decisions this year regarding true freshmen. Most people do more than that, of course - a couple folks going all the way to the extent of pointing to the 14 true freshmen used this year as proof positive that Al does in fact hate the University - for why else would he so irreversibly damage our future?
Last week, Jeff White presented the breakdown of true freshmen on the field. Who played, and how much. Al's always liked to use them, this year more so than just about ever. 14 is a big, big number, and one of the usual tacks when criticizing Groh is that it's way too many. Often, people point to just the number as evidence. I thought I'd break this down a little further, though. A lot of these are justifiable - you'd have to be just not even thinking about it to claim all 14 shouldn't have played. Let's see who should and shouldn't have been out there.
Not Only Justifiable, But Would Have Been Criminal Not To Use Them:
- Tim Smith. Third-most productive receiver, and could easily be remembered as the best of this bunch when all's said and done. With the unit absolutely desperate for talent, I don't think I ever saw anyone argue that he shouldn't have played, and nobody should.
- Tucker Windle. Don't look at me like that. Another common criticism of Al is that he didn't develop enough playable depth. Actually kind of a problem for the linebackers this year - the previous group was so solid that they played all the time, and now we have seniors and juniors stepping up that really haven't seen much action. Well, here's your playable depth. Granted, our need for ILB's just got cut in half, but Groh can't be assuming that. Windle looked solid enough in his time out there, and he needs his share of reps.
- Oday Aboushi. Left tackle has been a punching bag of mine all season. Not 100% sure how fair that is in the end, but I can't say I was pleased at all by Landon Bradley's play this year. This should be an open competition next year, and Aboushi not only deserves his reps, the team needed him to get them.
- Will Hill. Before the season, DE depth was one of the major concerns. We always really knew we'd need to dip into the true freshman pool at DE, and Hill enrolled early, giving him a leg up. Not only that, though: having Hill on the field is useful proof for the admissions people, should the coaches ever want to make the case (they better), that early enrollment is a big benefit to the program.
Not Essential, But Perfectly Justifiable
- Dominique Wallace. It looked like he was headed for quite a bit of use until he got hurt. And we ended up with not a lot of usable depth at running back. Mikell Simpson is an injury magnet, Torrey Mack proved himself unable to pass-block, and Perry Jones is itty-bitty and not your first choice when the offensive line is average at best at run-blocking. We didn't really need Wallace out there, but I personally was wanting to see more. And we get that year back anyway thanks to a likely medical redshirt.
- Perry Jones. Again with the need for a little rotation at running back. Plus, Jones averaged 16 special teams plays a game - that's basically most of them. Might as well use the best we got, if he's it.
Would Have Preferred Not To See Them, But You Can Still Make An Argument
- Laroy Reynolds. Got some special teams action - about 10 plays a game - but not really enough to say we were using him because he was clearly the best at it. What I'd like to have seen is the breakdown of which special teams plays he was in on. If he was a kickoff/punt coverage regular but maybe not in for the returns, you could waffle him back and forth between here and the above column.
- Connor McCartin. Ended the season on the two-deep. Playable depth would again be a workable argument if he'd gotten more than four plays on defense. Still, when you're on the two-deep, you're on the two-deep - it seems disingenuous to list a guy there and then not play him in situations where you'd play the backup.
- Drew Jarrett. People forget: The guy's a walk-on. Redshirting him is the same thing as telling him he'll need to pay his way through a fifth year of college - and grad school at that, which is much more expensive. I don't think you ask that of a guy, unless you're prepared to offer him that fifth year gratis.
- Paul Freedman. Our tight ends - that is, Torchia and Phillips - were not too spectacular this year, either. Drops were a problem. I can see where you'd want to fire a shot across their bow by putting the third-string in there.
Put The Redshirt And The Matches Down, Coach
- Quintin Hunter. We had enough wide receivers out there. Hunter had one catch all year despite participating in 89 offensive plays. That's not justification to play him.
- LoVante' Battle. The contribution from him just wasn't worth it. Battle is probably not destined for stardom, but you might as well be patient and see what happens.
- Javanti Sparrow. See Battle.
- Corey Lillard. See Battle and Sparrow, times ten, and maybe minus the part about stardom. Lillard was a well-though-of recruit we had to beat a lot of good teams for. Ten plays? If you're going to get angry about redshirt-burning, this is the one to hang your hat on.
There's the possibility, by the way, of a lot of behind-the-scenes stuff that we fans aren't privy to. Maybe one of the freshmen told Groh, "hey, I don't want to play a fifth year, I want to get my degree on schedule and get moving with my life - play me if I deserve it." Maybe we have a highly motivated freshman class that wanted to get out their and prove their special teams chops - Groh always said that special teams were your gateway to the field.
Still, from a purely analytical standpoint here, I think there are at least four and possibly eight that shouldn't have played, and six that definitely should have. But you have to remember: this isn't irreversible. What's irreversible is the redshirts. If Mike London wants to, he can put the shirt back on these fourteen players.
In particular, I think the following players would be excellent candidates: McCartin, Freedman, Hunter, and one or two of the defensive backs. There's not enough depth at defensive back to redshirt them all again plus the incoming class too. But two tight ends for the year are plenty, and we get back Torchia and Phillips. The 4-3 gives us lots of depth at ILB - we shouldn't need McCartin. We don't graduate any receivers but Hall, and we're never going to see another four- or five-receiver set, so Hunter can sit. And Robert Randolph is certainly capable of kicking extra points if we really want a fifth year out of Jarrett.
Bottom line here: Groh could certainly have run this year without using so many true freshman, but anybody who complains about using 14 without a look at who actually played and how much isn't thinking it through enough. And it's not as if any damage is irreversible. Redshirts aren't only for the freshman year. Myself I am only complaining about four. That's not program-killing stuff.
Last week, Jeff White presented the breakdown of true freshmen on the field. Who played, and how much. Al's always liked to use them, this year more so than just about ever. 14 is a big, big number, and one of the usual tacks when criticizing Groh is that it's way too many. Often, people point to just the number as evidence. I thought I'd break this down a little further, though. A lot of these are justifiable - you'd have to be just not even thinking about it to claim all 14 shouldn't have played. Let's see who should and shouldn't have been out there.
Not Only Justifiable, But Would Have Been Criminal Not To Use Them:
- Tim Smith. Third-most productive receiver, and could easily be remembered as the best of this bunch when all's said and done. With the unit absolutely desperate for talent, I don't think I ever saw anyone argue that he shouldn't have played, and nobody should.
- Tucker Windle. Don't look at me like that. Another common criticism of Al is that he didn't develop enough playable depth. Actually kind of a problem for the linebackers this year - the previous group was so solid that they played all the time, and now we have seniors and juniors stepping up that really haven't seen much action. Well, here's your playable depth. Granted, our need for ILB's just got cut in half, but Groh can't be assuming that. Windle looked solid enough in his time out there, and he needs his share of reps.
- Oday Aboushi. Left tackle has been a punching bag of mine all season. Not 100% sure how fair that is in the end, but I can't say I was pleased at all by Landon Bradley's play this year. This should be an open competition next year, and Aboushi not only deserves his reps, the team needed him to get them.
- Will Hill. Before the season, DE depth was one of the major concerns. We always really knew we'd need to dip into the true freshman pool at DE, and Hill enrolled early, giving him a leg up. Not only that, though: having Hill on the field is useful proof for the admissions people, should the coaches ever want to make the case (they better), that early enrollment is a big benefit to the program.
Not Essential, But Perfectly Justifiable
- Dominique Wallace. It looked like he was headed for quite a bit of use until he got hurt. And we ended up with not a lot of usable depth at running back. Mikell Simpson is an injury magnet, Torrey Mack proved himself unable to pass-block, and Perry Jones is itty-bitty and not your first choice when the offensive line is average at best at run-blocking. We didn't really need Wallace out there, but I personally was wanting to see more. And we get that year back anyway thanks to a likely medical redshirt.
- Perry Jones. Again with the need for a little rotation at running back. Plus, Jones averaged 16 special teams plays a game - that's basically most of them. Might as well use the best we got, if he's it.
Would Have Preferred Not To See Them, But You Can Still Make An Argument
- Laroy Reynolds. Got some special teams action - about 10 plays a game - but not really enough to say we were using him because he was clearly the best at it. What I'd like to have seen is the breakdown of which special teams plays he was in on. If he was a kickoff/punt coverage regular but maybe not in for the returns, you could waffle him back and forth between here and the above column.
- Connor McCartin. Ended the season on the two-deep. Playable depth would again be a workable argument if he'd gotten more than four plays on defense. Still, when you're on the two-deep, you're on the two-deep - it seems disingenuous to list a guy there and then not play him in situations where you'd play the backup.
- Drew Jarrett. People forget: The guy's a walk-on. Redshirting him is the same thing as telling him he'll need to pay his way through a fifth year of college - and grad school at that, which is much more expensive. I don't think you ask that of a guy, unless you're prepared to offer him that fifth year gratis.
- Paul Freedman. Our tight ends - that is, Torchia and Phillips - were not too spectacular this year, either. Drops were a problem. I can see where you'd want to fire a shot across their bow by putting the third-string in there.
Put The Redshirt And The Matches Down, Coach
- Quintin Hunter. We had enough wide receivers out there. Hunter had one catch all year despite participating in 89 offensive plays. That's not justification to play him.
- LoVante' Battle. The contribution from him just wasn't worth it. Battle is probably not destined for stardom, but you might as well be patient and see what happens.
- Javanti Sparrow. See Battle.
- Corey Lillard. See Battle and Sparrow, times ten, and maybe minus the part about stardom. Lillard was a well-though-of recruit we had to beat a lot of good teams for. Ten plays? If you're going to get angry about redshirt-burning, this is the one to hang your hat on.
There's the possibility, by the way, of a lot of behind-the-scenes stuff that we fans aren't privy to. Maybe one of the freshmen told Groh, "hey, I don't want to play a fifth year, I want to get my degree on schedule and get moving with my life - play me if I deserve it." Maybe we have a highly motivated freshman class that wanted to get out their and prove their special teams chops - Groh always said that special teams were your gateway to the field.
Still, from a purely analytical standpoint here, I think there are at least four and possibly eight that shouldn't have played, and six that definitely should have. But you have to remember: this isn't irreversible. What's irreversible is the redshirts. If Mike London wants to, he can put the shirt back on these fourteen players.
In particular, I think the following players would be excellent candidates: McCartin, Freedman, Hunter, and one or two of the defensive backs. There's not enough depth at defensive back to redshirt them all again plus the incoming class too. But two tight ends for the year are plenty, and we get back Torchia and Phillips. The 4-3 gives us lots of depth at ILB - we shouldn't need McCartin. We don't graduate any receivers but Hall, and we're never going to see another four- or five-receiver set, so Hunter can sit. And Robert Randolph is certainly capable of kicking extra points if we really want a fifth year out of Jarrett.
Bottom line here: Groh could certainly have run this year without using so many true freshman, but anybody who complains about using 14 without a look at who actually played and how much isn't thinking it through enough. And it's not as if any damage is irreversible. Redshirts aren't only for the freshman year. Myself I am only complaining about four. That's not program-killing stuff.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
season preview: the offense
Oy. I don't know what makes me think I can go on a booze cruise all afternoon and come home in any shape to write a post. Yesterday I fully intended to come home and worst case scenario maybe stay up a little bit late putting this up, and then sat down and realized just how successful those efforts were likely to be. So that didn't happen.
That means both the offense and the defense are both getting crammed into a real short time frame. One big happy mess. Two separate posts, though, we gotta keep some kind of law and order around here or nothing'll ever get done. Like it does anyway.
Let's jump right in to the offense. For position-by-position stuff, just read my Examiner work. No sense duplicating that. It's all linked right there on the side for easy clicking. Instead, we'll go with question-and-answer. There's no shortage of the former and precious few of the latter.
1. Who's going to play quarterback?
OK, I lied. We will break down this one position. Might as well. Everyone always treats this as some earthshattering new piece of drama. Really, it's not. In this decade alone we've asked this question in, let's see, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009. Birds fly, fish swim, dogs bark, and UVA fans wonder who's going to play quarterback. A lot of this is because Groh likes to play keep-away from the media about stuff like this, and further he's never bought into the notion that you have to have one and only one for stability's sake. Once upon a time I remember Groh musing about the position and opining that it shouldn't be that much different from any other position on the field where you rotate people in and out all the time.
That said, though, it's pretty rare that you rotate three players in and out at quarterback. This is almost never done. Groh seems determined to try, but I'm willing to put down a lot of money that when all's said and done, the snaps won't be split three ways evenly. Someone's eventually going to slide out of the rotation for consistency's sake, and my money's on that being Verica.
Why? Well, let's start off by being honest with ourselves about one thing. Vic Hall's the most athletic and electric of the three, there's no doubt about that. So if he was throwing even equally as well as the other two, there'd be no question at all. It's my opinion Hall is the worst passer of the three, and that's not borne out of observation, that's out of the fact that he hasn't put that separation between himself and the other two, despite having an obvious advantage in the athleticism department. It's logic.
So either Sewell or Verica will be passing the ball a lot this year. I think it'll be Sewell because while Verica has the strongest and often most accurate arm, Verica isn't well suited to run Hall's plays. Sewell is. You take Hall out and put Verica in, and teams already know you're going to pass the ball. Tech had that figured out last year. You take Hall out and put Sewell in, and you don't tip your hand as much. Hall, of course, will attempt more passes per game than the measly one that he threw against Tech. Also, Verica won't be completely shut out of the offense, but I think barring an injury, he'll only make appearances toward the beginning and end of the season, and not as much in the middle. Still, I think the baseline assumption should be that Hall is the nominal "starter", and Sewell will trot in for a few series each game and whenever the coaches want to do something fancy like put them both in the backfield. And don't be surprised to see Hall making cameos at weird places like slot receiver.
2. So what kind of a spread offense are we getting, anyway? Running spread? Passing spread?
Calling someone a spread coordinator is like calling someone European: there is a certain meaning to that, but nobody would suggest a Swede is terribly similar to an Italian. We got a spread guru for a coordinator now, so it's fair to wonder what that means. Are we going to turn into Texas Tech?
Gregg Brandon isn't really married to the idea of running more or passing more. He's proven adept at adjusting his playbook and playcalling to his personnel. In 2006, Bowling Green had a running quarterback and ran the ball a lot more than they passed. The next year, that guy got moved to running back and a big galoot of a pocket passer took over the show, and they passed more.
Brandon does like to pass, his philosophy being that you can't be a great offense unless you can throw the football. In the same link there, you can see why I like Sewell's chances of getting on the field more than Verica's: Brandon likes short and quick throws, which is exactly what Sewell was asked to do in 2007. An old article points out that Bowling Green at one time lined up with five wide receivers once every three plays. I don't think we'll see that quite as much, but we will see it, which is why running backs and quarterbacks have suddenly found themselves turned into receivers. Five receivers is a brand-new concept to an Al Groh-coached team. Another brand-new concept: the option. This just hasn't been in the playbook, but Brandon will be bringing it back, and it's why I like the odds of seeing Vic Hall out in the slot. One of Brandon's staples has been to add to the usual option concept the possibility of a shovel to the slot receiver inside. Sewell lines up in the shotgun with Mikell Simpson behind him to his right and Vic Hall in the slot to his left; all three run to the right and Sewell has three options: shovel, keep, or pitch.
The answer, if you care to pigeonhole it, is that we'll probably lean more towards passing than running. And when we do run, don't expect a steady dose of the traditional handoffs and power sweeps. For one thing, the quarterback will operate out of the shotgun, so plays that count as run plays will be a lot of quarterback keepers, options, draw plays, and the like. The days of a quarterback taking the snap from under center and handing the ball off to a running back who follows a fullback and a pulling guard are in the past. But at the same time, passes will operate much like running plays: option shovels, screens, quick slants to a slot who's got a linebacker trying to cover him.
3. Do we have the personnel to run this thing?
Absolutely. About the only issue as far as that's concerned is the offensive line. I frankly do worry about this: Al Groh has always wanted his offensive linemen to be absolutely huge. The bigger the better. And so they are: we have three 300-pounders on the line. Can they move around in space? Are they well-conditioned enough? Legitimate questions, but remember: we've always required our guards to pull around and block the other side. A lot. That requires some hustle and athleticism, and they're pretty good at it. Both B.J. Cabbell and Austin Pasztor are over 300 pounds, but I don't worry about their ability to get around and move. A bigger adjustment will be pass-blocking out of larger splits. The larger line splits spread out the defense and allow more room to run in, but they also make it more imperative that each lineman win his individual battle when pass-blocking.
As for the rest of the offense, it's not even a question. The running backs are just the guys we want. So are the quarterbacks. So are the receivers. We can put to rest any fears that we'll have to undergo a Michigan-like transformation in which we have to endure a season of mismatched pieces running a foreign system while we wait for the "right" players to be recruited. We have them now.
4. Biggest strengths? Biggest concerns?
The biggest strength is that we simply have a guy in charge who knows offense. Can you really spell out our offensive philosophy under Mike Groh without resorting to sarcasm? There was just no theme. It wasn't an offense, it was just a collection of plays. It was exactly the sort of offense you'd expect from a guy who'd become an offensive coordinator without much of an apprenticeship.
Now we have an actual system. The plays are designed to complement one another. There's a theme, a rhyme and reason behind things. That alone is worth a lot.
The offensive line improved mightily last year from beginning to end and that is a fantastic sign for this year. Never ever ever ever ever underestimate the value of a veteran line that's played together. This is the biggest and best thing we have going for us on the field. There's a lot to be excited about: there's incredible speed at wide receiver, there's a scary-good playmaker at quarterback, and there's plenty of new blood (Torrey Mack, Tim Smith) with sky's-the-limit talent. That's all well and good but none of it goes anywhere without an offensive line, and I really, really like what I see there.
It's easy to look at last year's stat sheet, realize most of the guys at the top are gone, and write off UVA. It's a favorite tactic of sportswriters to pick teams based on how many returning skill players they have, and of course it worked spectacularly last year when everyone was lining up to anoint Clemson as King of Everything. Sure - all the major passcatchers are gone. The top five, actually, which accounted for 80% of our receptions. Inexperience at receiver and lack of depth at running back are what I'd label the two major concerns, and both can be overcome. Get excited about the offense this year.
5. OK, I am excited. So what are the predictions?
- You'll see a huge uptick in yards-per-attempt in the passing game. 5.6 is just horrendous. If we could have added just one yard to that last year, we'd still be very mediocre in that category (ranked in the 70s instead of the 100s) and it would have been good for an extra 37 yards a game. The difference between the horrible offense we had and a mediocre offense is the difference between 5-7 and 7-5.
- Nobody will emerge as a McMullen-like go-to guy at receiver, but it won't matter because enough of those guys will be good to keep the ball spread around and the offense effective. There's too much youth in the receiver corps for any one of them to play consistently well enough to rack up huge numbers, but there's enough depth that, much more often than not, someone will emerge to have a big day.
- I hope Mikell Simpson stays healthy, but if he doesn't, Torrey Mack will make a huge push for ACC Freshman of the Year, and the number of "Mack Truck" references by oh-so-clever color announcers and message board inhabitants will reach triple digits and threaten quadruples.
- I hope Landon Bradley stays healthy, and I believe he'll play very well, but if he gets hurt, Oday Aboushi will Wally Pipp him out of a job.
- Vic Hall will end up taking the majority of snaps at quarterback, followed by Jameel Sewell, followed by Marc Verica. Verica will make some appearances early in the season but be slowly phased out of the picture by October, only to return in late November. This is all assuming good health.
- The offensive improvement will be enough to put us back in the postseason. I still think 7-5 and a bowl game is a more-than-realistic expectation.
That means both the offense and the defense are both getting crammed into a real short time frame. One big happy mess. Two separate posts, though, we gotta keep some kind of law and order around here or nothing'll ever get done. Like it does anyway.
Let's jump right in to the offense. For position-by-position stuff, just read my Examiner work. No sense duplicating that. It's all linked right there on the side for easy clicking. Instead, we'll go with question-and-answer. There's no shortage of the former and precious few of the latter.
1. Who's going to play quarterback?
OK, I lied. We will break down this one position. Might as well. Everyone always treats this as some earthshattering new piece of drama. Really, it's not. In this decade alone we've asked this question in, let's see, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009. Birds fly, fish swim, dogs bark, and UVA fans wonder who's going to play quarterback. A lot of this is because Groh likes to play keep-away from the media about stuff like this, and further he's never bought into the notion that you have to have one and only one for stability's sake. Once upon a time I remember Groh musing about the position and opining that it shouldn't be that much different from any other position on the field where you rotate people in and out all the time.
That said, though, it's pretty rare that you rotate three players in and out at quarterback. This is almost never done. Groh seems determined to try, but I'm willing to put down a lot of money that when all's said and done, the snaps won't be split three ways evenly. Someone's eventually going to slide out of the rotation for consistency's sake, and my money's on that being Verica.
Why? Well, let's start off by being honest with ourselves about one thing. Vic Hall's the most athletic and electric of the three, there's no doubt about that. So if he was throwing even equally as well as the other two, there'd be no question at all. It's my opinion Hall is the worst passer of the three, and that's not borne out of observation, that's out of the fact that he hasn't put that separation between himself and the other two, despite having an obvious advantage in the athleticism department. It's logic.
So either Sewell or Verica will be passing the ball a lot this year. I think it'll be Sewell because while Verica has the strongest and often most accurate arm, Verica isn't well suited to run Hall's plays. Sewell is. You take Hall out and put Verica in, and teams already know you're going to pass the ball. Tech had that figured out last year. You take Hall out and put Sewell in, and you don't tip your hand as much. Hall, of course, will attempt more passes per game than the measly one that he threw against Tech. Also, Verica won't be completely shut out of the offense, but I think barring an injury, he'll only make appearances toward the beginning and end of the season, and not as much in the middle. Still, I think the baseline assumption should be that Hall is the nominal "starter", and Sewell will trot in for a few series each game and whenever the coaches want to do something fancy like put them both in the backfield. And don't be surprised to see Hall making cameos at weird places like slot receiver.
2. So what kind of a spread offense are we getting, anyway? Running spread? Passing spread?
Calling someone a spread coordinator is like calling someone European: there is a certain meaning to that, but nobody would suggest a Swede is terribly similar to an Italian. We got a spread guru for a coordinator now, so it's fair to wonder what that means. Are we going to turn into Texas Tech?
Gregg Brandon isn't really married to the idea of running more or passing more. He's proven adept at adjusting his playbook and playcalling to his personnel. In 2006, Bowling Green had a running quarterback and ran the ball a lot more than they passed. The next year, that guy got moved to running back and a big galoot of a pocket passer took over the show, and they passed more.
Brandon does like to pass, his philosophy being that you can't be a great offense unless you can throw the football. In the same link there, you can see why I like Sewell's chances of getting on the field more than Verica's: Brandon likes short and quick throws, which is exactly what Sewell was asked to do in 2007. An old article points out that Bowling Green at one time lined up with five wide receivers once every three plays. I don't think we'll see that quite as much, but we will see it, which is why running backs and quarterbacks have suddenly found themselves turned into receivers. Five receivers is a brand-new concept to an Al Groh-coached team. Another brand-new concept: the option. This just hasn't been in the playbook, but Brandon will be bringing it back, and it's why I like the odds of seeing Vic Hall out in the slot. One of Brandon's staples has been to add to the usual option concept the possibility of a shovel to the slot receiver inside. Sewell lines up in the shotgun with Mikell Simpson behind him to his right and Vic Hall in the slot to his left; all three run to the right and Sewell has three options: shovel, keep, or pitch.
The answer, if you care to pigeonhole it, is that we'll probably lean more towards passing than running. And when we do run, don't expect a steady dose of the traditional handoffs and power sweeps. For one thing, the quarterback will operate out of the shotgun, so plays that count as run plays will be a lot of quarterback keepers, options, draw plays, and the like. The days of a quarterback taking the snap from under center and handing the ball off to a running back who follows a fullback and a pulling guard are in the past. But at the same time, passes will operate much like running plays: option shovels, screens, quick slants to a slot who's got a linebacker trying to cover him.
3. Do we have the personnel to run this thing?
Absolutely. About the only issue as far as that's concerned is the offensive line. I frankly do worry about this: Al Groh has always wanted his offensive linemen to be absolutely huge. The bigger the better. And so they are: we have three 300-pounders on the line. Can they move around in space? Are they well-conditioned enough? Legitimate questions, but remember: we've always required our guards to pull around and block the other side. A lot. That requires some hustle and athleticism, and they're pretty good at it. Both B.J. Cabbell and Austin Pasztor are over 300 pounds, but I don't worry about their ability to get around and move. A bigger adjustment will be pass-blocking out of larger splits. The larger line splits spread out the defense and allow more room to run in, but they also make it more imperative that each lineman win his individual battle when pass-blocking.
As for the rest of the offense, it's not even a question. The running backs are just the guys we want. So are the quarterbacks. So are the receivers. We can put to rest any fears that we'll have to undergo a Michigan-like transformation in which we have to endure a season of mismatched pieces running a foreign system while we wait for the "right" players to be recruited. We have them now.
4. Biggest strengths? Biggest concerns?
The biggest strength is that we simply have a guy in charge who knows offense. Can you really spell out our offensive philosophy under Mike Groh without resorting to sarcasm? There was just no theme. It wasn't an offense, it was just a collection of plays. It was exactly the sort of offense you'd expect from a guy who'd become an offensive coordinator without much of an apprenticeship.
Now we have an actual system. The plays are designed to complement one another. There's a theme, a rhyme and reason behind things. That alone is worth a lot.
The offensive line improved mightily last year from beginning to end and that is a fantastic sign for this year. Never ever ever ever ever underestimate the value of a veteran line that's played together. This is the biggest and best thing we have going for us on the field. There's a lot to be excited about: there's incredible speed at wide receiver, there's a scary-good playmaker at quarterback, and there's plenty of new blood (Torrey Mack, Tim Smith) with sky's-the-limit talent. That's all well and good but none of it goes anywhere without an offensive line, and I really, really like what I see there.
It's easy to look at last year's stat sheet, realize most of the guys at the top are gone, and write off UVA. It's a favorite tactic of sportswriters to pick teams based on how many returning skill players they have, and of course it worked spectacularly last year when everyone was lining up to anoint Clemson as King of Everything. Sure - all the major passcatchers are gone. The top five, actually, which accounted for 80% of our receptions. Inexperience at receiver and lack of depth at running back are what I'd label the two major concerns, and both can be overcome. Get excited about the offense this year.
5. OK, I am excited. So what are the predictions?
- You'll see a huge uptick in yards-per-attempt in the passing game. 5.6 is just horrendous. If we could have added just one yard to that last year, we'd still be very mediocre in that category (ranked in the 70s instead of the 100s) and it would have been good for an extra 37 yards a game. The difference between the horrible offense we had and a mediocre offense is the difference between 5-7 and 7-5.
- Nobody will emerge as a McMullen-like go-to guy at receiver, but it won't matter because enough of those guys will be good to keep the ball spread around and the offense effective. There's too much youth in the receiver corps for any one of them to play consistently well enough to rack up huge numbers, but there's enough depth that, much more often than not, someone will emerge to have a big day.
- I hope Mikell Simpson stays healthy, but if he doesn't, Torrey Mack will make a huge push for ACC Freshman of the Year, and the number of "Mack Truck" references by oh-so-clever color announcers and message board inhabitants will reach triple digits and threaten quadruples.
- I hope Landon Bradley stays healthy, and I believe he'll play very well, but if he gets hurt, Oday Aboushi will Wally Pipp him out of a job.
- Vic Hall will end up taking the majority of snaps at quarterback, followed by Jameel Sewell, followed by Marc Verica. Verica will make some appearances early in the season but be slowly phased out of the picture by October, only to return in late November. This is all assuming good health.
- The offensive improvement will be enough to put us back in the postseason. I still think 7-5 and a bowl game is a more-than-realistic expectation.
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