game preview: Georgia Tech

Date/Time: Saturday, November 1; 3:30

TV: ESPNUVA

Record against the Jackets: 17-18-1

Last meeting: GT 35, UVA 25; 10/26/13, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UNC 28, UVA 27; GT 56, Pitt 28

Line: GT by 4.5

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT: DE Trent Corney, WR Miles Gooch, LB Mark Hall, C Jackson Matteo, CB Demetrious Nicholson, C Eric Tetlow, OT Jay Whitmire
DOUBTFUL: WR Andre Levrone
QUESTIONABLE: S Divante Walker
PROBABLE: none

Georgia Tech:

OUT: RB Zach Laskey, RB Charles Perkins
DOUBTFUL: none
QUESTIONABLE: none
PROBABLE: OL Chris Griffin

Theoretically, the Coastal race could hardly be more wide-open; five out of seven teams have two losses, and the other two have one and three.  The mood isn't one of a title race, though; blowing a game to a rival in way-too-familiar fashion will do that.  Getting to a bowl game remains a plausible, if growing distant, goal, however.  If the Hoos are to do that, this game is a must-win.

-- UVA run offense vs. GT run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 145 carries, 613 yards, 4.2 ypc, 4 TDs
Taquan Mizzell: 51 carries, 211 yards, 4.1 ypc, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
170.13 yards/game, 4.19 yards/attempt
74th of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

GT defense:
189.13 yards/game, 5.38 yards/attempt
114th of 128 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

For the past two weeks I've pointed out lousy run defenses, and for the past two weeks I've lamented our apparent unwillingness to take advantage.  Last chance, at least for a while.  GT has had some pretty good running backs on the schedule - Duke Johnson and James Conner, for starters - but it's not much excuse.  Georgia Southern ran absolutely wild on GT, almost completing a second-half comeback - and using GT's own triple option offense against them.  If you can't stop your own offense....

The UVA injury report is pretty lengthy this week, but one thing it doesn't have is any regular O-linemen.  As much as it can ever be said about this season, the O-line is healthy, and ready to take on a GT trench team that's been pushed around a lot.  Adam Gotsis gets double-teamed a bunch because nobody else strikes any fear in anyone, and the defensive ends are positively absent from the stat sheet (with the exception of eye-opening freshman KeShun Freeman.)

I'd like to say I'm done complaining about not utilizing the running game, because I'm tired of doing it and I don't want to be Johnny One-Note, but I doubt I'll be able to contain myself if for some reason we can't (or won't) run on GT.  Wofford piled up 271 yards.  We should at least be able to give Kevin Parks 120.

-- UVA pass offense vs. GT pass defense

Quarterback:
Greyson Lambert: 83/137, 60.6%; 4 TDs, 6 INTs, 825 yards; 6.02 ypa

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 27 rec., 143 yards, 0 TDs
Canaan Severin: 25 rec., 321 yards, 3 TDs
Kevin Parks: 20 rec., 123 yards, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
241.6 yards/game, 6.60 yards/attempt
89th of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

GT defense:
240.3 yards/game, 7.94 yards/attempt
112th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

Then again, if we don't run the ball, maybe it's just because we decided to take our chances against GT's forgiving pass defense.  On the plus side for the Jackets, eight different players have an interception; they have an active secondary and some linebackers that can effectively play the pass, particularly Quayshawn Nealy.

The rush isn't great, though.  And if GT isn't getting turnovers, the other team is moving the ball like crazy.  Michael Brewer - who's playing so great for VT that Hokie fans are calling for Mark Leal - was a hair shy of 300 yards, and Chad Voytik and Marquise Williams blew past that mark.  Georgia Southern needed only 13 completions to reach 245 yards on the day.

I'm assuming Greyson Lambert gets the call again.  Like I said: don't turn the ball over, and he should find room to throw.  Obviously that's been a little problem of his, although bouncy hands, lousy playcalls, and untimely pressure have all contributed mightily.  The Hoos will be shorthanded at receiver, though; Miles Gooch's injury looks like a long-term thing (truly unfortunate, for a guy who's paid his dues) and one of the more important deep threats is unlikely to play as well.  UVA has depth at receiver, but those are two big hits.  Caanan Severin needs to have a big day, and someone like Keeon Johnson or Doni Dowling will have to step up big too.

Given the injuries at receiver, once again I'd just as soon tilt the playcalling towards the run.  If the game turns shootout, though, which it might as GT has an awfully effective offense, the game will hinge on what Lambert can do.  I'm OK with taking our chances, as GT tends to let you move the ball regardless of how you want to.

-- GT run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Justin Thomas: 123 carries, 717 yards, 5.8 ypc, 4 TDs
Synjyn Days: 38 carries, 199 yards, 5.2 ypc, 1 TD

GT offense:
326.13 yards/game, 6.17 yards/attempt
7th of 128 (national), 1st of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
100.38 yards/game, 3.02 yards/attempt
10th of 128 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

There's little to say here that you don't know by now.  It's the triple option.  It is what it is.  It's probably a tribute to that offense, that it basically operates the same year after year without concern about you adjusting to it, and still works.

GT's running it pretty well this year.  Justin Thomas appears to be much better at it than Vad Lee was.  With Lee, all you had to do was force him to keep, and you won.  (Case in point: Lee only ran the ball four times in our loss last year.)  It's much more balanced this year.  As ever, sticking to your assignment is #1.

The Jackets are a little shorthanded, as Zach Laskey misses his second game with a shoulder injury.  Former quarterback Synjyn Days took over against Pitt and the Jackets didn't miss a beat.  Charles Perkins, averaging 10.9 yards a carry, hurt his knee against Pitt, so Tech is losing some depth, but again - they just handed the ball to Broderick Snoddy instead, and he went and did the same things Perkins does, so I'm not chalking up any improved chances just because of these injuries.  Just gotta play the assignments, and hopefully UVA's very shiny run defense stats don't get blowed up.

-- GT pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Justin Thomas: 55/115, 47.8%; 11 TDs, 3 INTs, 1,106 yards; 9.62 ypa

Top receivers:
DeAndre Smelter: 20 rec., 462 yards, 5 TDs
Darren Waller: 10 rec., 205 yards, 2 TDs
Tony Zenon: 7 rec., 146 yards, 1 TD

GT offense:
155.8 yards/game, 9.66 yards/attempt
3rd of 128 (national), 1st of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
236.3 yards/game, 6.80 yards/attempt
52nd of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Once again there's not much new to talk about.  GT's pass offense is as usual: it generates big plays when it connects, but more passes fall incomplete than not.  GT has their big-play receiver in DeAndre Smelter - they've been missing that aspect the past couple years, and this offense is at its best when it has that Demaryius Thomas type of guy running deep routes.

I'm a little more worried than usual, and would be even more if Quin Blanding wasn't a good student of the game.  As free safety, it's Blanding's job to never ever ever get sucked in until the ball crosses the line of scrimmage.  Once it does, he can crash; til then, letting anything behind him is a potential disaster.  Don't think Paul Johnson won't notice, if Blanding starts cheating upwards.

Ultimately, though, the story with GT's passing game is the same as always: you'll probably lose if you let it generate big plays, but stopping it doesn't guarantee much.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 6
UVA pass offense: 6
UVA run defense: 4
UVA pass defense: 4

Average: 5

-- Outlook

That favorability stuff above is, this week, just about entirely based on the opponent's abilities.  UVA will be hoping its powerful defense is capable of stopping the well-run gimmick; GT will be hoping UVA's offense isn't good enough to take advantage of its porous defense.  I'd probably be leaning toward the optimistic side if UVA had won just one of the last two, but it wasn't to be.  Now you've got annoying coach tricks rearing their ugly head again, and the game is on the road.  It's hard to see this turning out well anymore.

-- Predictions

- Kevin Parks runs for 120 yards.

- Keeon Johnson has a big day, which these days means four or more catches.

- UVA's season average for rushing yards allowed per attempt jumps at least a quarter-yard.

- Lambert throws at least two more picks, one of which isn't his fault.

Final score: GT 35, UVA 28

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: Clemson, Wake Forest

Florida State 42, Louisville 31 - Thu. - With an effective two-game lead, and Clemson only having two games to play, FSU has just about sewn up the Atlantic.  This is why you put that damn game in November, you idiots in the scheduling office.

Duke @ Pittsburgh - 12:00 - One more piece of the crazy Coastal puzzle.

Boston College @ Virginia Tech - 12:30 - VT has proven itself unable to stop most running games, which is really bad news against a team that's already run for over 2,200 yards.  BC is going for bowl eligibility in this one.

North Carolina @ Miami - 12:30 - The Canes are hitting their stride, and favored by a ton.

NC State @ Syracuse - 3:00 - NC State is clinging to bowl game dreams, and probably needs this one to get there.

game preview: Maryland

Date/Time: Saturday, October 13; 3:30

TV: ESPNUVA

Record against the Terps: 32-43-2

Last meeting: Md. 27, UVA 20; 10/13/12, Charlottesville

Last weekend: BSU 48, UVA 27; FSU 63, Md 0

Line: Maryland by 7

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT - OL George Adeosun, PK Ian Frye, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, OT Sadiq Olanrewaju, S Wil Wahee

DOUBTFUL - None

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - TE Zach Swanson

Maryland:

OUT - DB Milan Collins, OL JaJuan Dulaney, CB Dexter McDougle, DL Mike Minter, DL Ty Tucker, WR Tyrek Cheeseboro, RB Tyler Cierski, K Adam Greene, DB Jeremiah Johnson, OL Nick Klemm, LB Matt Robinson

DOUBTFUL - QB C.J. Brown

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - WR Daniel Adams, OL Silvio Altamirano, LB Cole Farrand, WR Nigel King, TE Dave Stinebaugh, DL Zeke Riser

I'm a little torn, but strongly leaning toward the idea that we should close down relations forever with Maryland once their time in the ACC is done.  Depends on the sport, really; lacrosse, definitely.  Basketball, probably, and replace them with Georgetown.  Football, I suppose, is a little less clear, but then, the schedule's tied up for a good long time anyway.  So this'll be our last shot for the foreseeable future at what was a very fun rivalry when Ralph Friedgen would flap his fat gums and we would beat his teams in response.

-- UVA run offense vs. Md. run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 88 carries, 398 yards, 4.5 ypc, 5 TDs
Daniel Hamm: 23 carries, 141 yards, 6.1 ypc, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
178.20 yards/game, 4.09 yards/attempt
80th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Md. defense:
115.40 yards/game, 3.21 yards/attempt
25th of 125 (national), 3rd of 14 (ACC)

It seems like a safe but tentative bet so far that in the season-long who's-after-Parks watch, Khalek Shepherd is slowly but surely emerging as the primary backup.  Neither he nor Taquan Mizzell show up on the injury report this week, so we finally have the health we need to see the decision through.

The other name not on the injury report: Conner Davis.  Mike London has hinted this means another change in the order of battle for the offensive line; despite what the depth chart says, it appears Davis will take Luke Bowanko's left guard spot and move Bowanko back to center.  Bowanko is still a better guard than center, but I guess the real idea is that Davis is a better guard than Ross Burbank or Jackson Matteo are centers.  Last week's lineup shuffle looked good against a bad run defense; Maryland presents a tougher challenge.

Mitigating that will be Maryland's loss of disruptive OLB Matt Robinson.  Robinson is one of the defense's leading players and a member of one of the best linebacking corps in the league.  Inside backers Cole Farrand and L.A. Goree ought to be able to cover up for him to an extent, but Maryland loses something on the edge without Robinson.  Marcus Whitfield, on the other side of the Terps' 3-4, is more of a pass rusher.  Of course, last time I said there might be a weakness on the edge, attack the edge, Steve Fairchild kept attacking the middle.  So we'll see.

The 3-4 is just another challenge for our O-line, too, which hasn't been allowed to see many conventional defenses this year.  Maryland's line has been solid, and nose tackle Darius Kilgo is a load, so the O-line is simply going to be tested all day, and the threat will be more versatile than just watching Aaron Donald tear into the backfield all day.

It may be that Davis's return is another small boost to the line.  Changing from Wallace and Whitmire to Whitmire and Smith certainly was one, and you have to like getting a starter back.  But one good day against Ball State doesn't change my mind about the offense.  Even without Matt Robinson, Maryland is well-equipped to slow down and even stop the UVA run game.  Then you add in the fact that the read-option is designed against a 4-3 defense, and I definitely don't see strong results in this area of the game.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Md. pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 101/171, 59.1%; 813 yards, 3 TDs, 7 INTs; 4.75 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 19 rec., 119 yards, 1 TD
Darius Jennings: 14 rec., 107 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
171.4 yards/game, 4.6 yards/attempt
125th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Md. defense:
218.4 yards/game, 6.5 yards/attempt
43rd of 125 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

Another injury has sapped quite a bit of the effectiveness out of the Maryland pass defense: the loss of Dexter McDougle for the season.  The main consequence of that was the loss of most of their big-play capability; McDougle had three picks in as many games.  Isaac Goins is a solid cornerback, but McDougle's replacement, freshman William Likely, is 5'7", and, you know, a freshman.

The Maryland pass rush can be nasty.  The aforementioned Marcus Whitfield has 5.5 sacks, and his backup, Yannik Cudjoe-Virgil, has three.  Maryland's nose tackle position, between Darius Kilgo and Andre Monroe, has combined for 5.5 sacks, and the team total is 18, which ties them for 5th in the country.

So the O-line is in for another test.  Given the pass rush the Terps can generate from the middle of the line, having Bowanko at center is a little bit of a relief.  The playing-time intention at wide receiver, though, is still a mystery, even with the "ors" taken off the depth chart.  I guess there's just a skepticism factor that the starters are suddenly Kyle Dockins, Keeon Johnson, and Miles Gooch.  Johnson I believe given the role he played against Ball State, and that lineup of guys could provide an advantage given the lack of size Maryland has at corner.  Finding it hard to believe they're fully relegating guys like Tim Smith and Darius Jennings to the bench, though.

I do think our receivers provide an advantage over the Maryland defensive backfield, where the Terps are middling-decent but did present no threat whatsoever to the FSU passing game.  (By contrast, FSU's run game was successful but not spectacularly so.)  However, Watford's still learning, and slowly.  I'm gonna have to see something before I give the whole unit the benefit of the doubt.  At some point Watford's gonna have a great game and prove me wrong, but I don't plan on saying "this weekend is it" all year til I get it right.

-- Md. run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Brandon Ross: 68 carries, 331 yards, 4.8 ypc, 2 TDs
Albert Reid: 29 carries, 120 yards, 4.1 ypc, 1 TD

Md. offense:
188.0 yards/game, 4.65 yards/attempt
53rd of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
149.2 yards/game, 3.87 yards/attempt
50th of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

Like the offense in reverse, I'm gonna have to see more than one bad game out of the defense (Oregon doesn't count) before I decide it sucks.  I don't think that'll be in this phase of the game, at least.  The likely loss of C.J. Brown makes the Maryland run attack fairly one-dimensional.  Decent opponents have shut down Brandon Ross's backup, Albert Reid, which by subtraction leaves Ross as the only real rushing threat.  (Other backup Jacquille Veii, with almost as many carries as Reid, has been a garbage-timer so far.)

Ross can move the ball, but is no threat to break one open, and is a little bit stat-padded by a big game against ODU.  Florida International shut him down and FSU made him disappear entirely; he's just not a game-breaker, and Maryland's patchily young offensive line is still learning its way around consistent run-blocking.

So this is a very important phase of the game for UVA.  The Maryland pass offense can be dangerous, and UVA simply must force them to have to rely solely on it to move the ball.  If the run game can be stifled with just the regular up-front personnel, maybe even with six in the box, it'll make this game so much easier.  Long day otherwise.

-- Md. pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
C.J. Brown: 72/113, 63.7%; 1,125 yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT; 9.96 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Deon Long: 24 rec., 348 yards, 1 TD
Stefon Diggs: 20 rec., 424 yards, 3 TDs

Md. offense:
257.6 yards/game, 9.3 yards/attempt
10th of 125 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
191.4 yards/game, 5.6 yards/attempt
10th of 125 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

It's great to have such nice numbers on our side, even with such nice ones on the Maryland side too, but here's where the injury bug takes a chunk out of our defense, with Demetrious Nicholson out for the game.  This is not the time for that, as UVA goes up against a dynamic duo at receiver for the third time in a row, and probably the best of the three in Stefon Diggs and Deon Long.

Diggs is also dealing with a malady of his own, which could slow him down and even up the matchup; Randy Edsall has been referring to him as not 100% and he hasn't been taking return duties.  He's been limited the past two weeks to two catches each.  Long has stepped forward somewhat.  Still, you have to game plan for him.  You're not going to worry about Levern Jacobs or Malcolm Culmer.  You might watch Nigel King, who stands 6'3" and for that reason alone can be a tough cover, but Diggs and Long are what make the Maryland offense move.

The above assumes C.J. Brown can play, but he's listed as doubtful - so he probably won't.  We're in much better shape if he doesn't.  Backup Caleb Rowe is not incapable but not close to the player Brown is, either.  The combination of losing Brown and having Diggs limited could be a major crippling factor for the Maryland offense, and without Nicholson we'll take all the help we can get.

-- Favorability ratings:

Run offense: 3
Pass offense: 3.5
Run defense: 7.5
Pass defense: 3 if Brown plays and Diggs is playable, and 6.5 otherwise

Average: 4.25 or 5.125

-- Outlook

You can see the effect on the game of Brown's injury.  Take him out of there and I can see UVA having the slimmest of advantages.  Put him in and the game swings Maryland's way.  Maryland's run game is much more dangerous with Brown (Rowe is not a runner) and Brown is easily the better passer too.   UVA must, must must must shut down the run game to the greatest extent possible, and do so nice and early, so that they'll be able to focus on stopping the pass.  If they can do that, that's their chance.  Moving the ball will be tough and opportunities to do so limited, so there'll be plenty of pressure on the defense to keep the game within striking distance.

-- Prediction summary

-- Watford throws neither a pick nor a touchdown.

-- Neither run game musters more than three yards per attempt.

-- Keeon Johnson leads UVA wide receivers in receptions.

-- Stefon Diggs has had two catches each of the past two games; he has more here.

Final score: Md. 17, UVA 13

-- Rest of the ACC

Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech - 12:00 - Tech will be remembering the embarrassing beatdown they received from the Panthers last year.

Duke vs. Navy - 12:30 - Duke bowl eligibility hopes probably demand this win.

Syracuse @ NC State - 3:30 - As do the bowl hopes of both these teams, slim as they are.

Boston College @ Clemson - 3:30 - Clemson's tuneup before the big game next week.

Georgia Tech @ Brigham Young - 7:00 - Should be a useful game in learning how we stand.

Byes: Miami, Florida State, Wake Forest, UNC

hamm it up

Everybody loves a good Cinderella story.  And I love watching dominant running backs.  That makes Daniel Hamm the obvious topic du jour.

If you'd ever heard of Hamm, you are a teammate, a relation, or lying.  His existence flew under every radar that's tuned on Charlottesville.  He doesn't have an entry in most recruiting databases and he never received any scholarship offers to speak of, not in football.  He showed up on the field and people probably tried to remember if Khalek Shepherd wore #22 or some other number, until his name was announced.  Now his name is on all the headlines.

You have to admit, that's pretty cool.  It might be for just this one week, and might've only been VMI, but the entry in the record book is just as permanent as any other.  And it made something interesting out of an uninteresting game.

Also, it leaves some questions, or at least, one big one.  Namely, does this mean we have a new running back?  Well, the quality of competition looms large over everything positive we can say about Hamm's future.  Except for the first couple drives, VMI had no chance against the blocking, and Hamm always had a hole to run through.  When he broke a tackle, it always came with the question as to whether a player on a better team would've brought him down; when he ran past someone, you always wondered if another team's players would've been faster.  There's no way UVA's running game will generate 357 yards again this year.

Even so, a couple things look to be really in Hamm's favor here.  First and probably foremost, it's got to be really bad news for Kye Morgan, hasn't it?  That Khalek Shepherd and Taquan Mizzell are both hurt, and the next guy out is a true freshman walk-on, instead of Morgan who redshirted last season - that's a surprise.  Morgan's got more than three-and-a-half seasons left in his career, so it's not like you just write him off, but what didn't he show last year?

As for Hamm himself, some of those runs - particularly, I thought, his second TD run - were nice runs regardless of opponent.  He looked strong in his running.  Some of the holes he hit weren't very big, and the truth is, a lot of guys might have considered them too small and stepped around them, looking for a home run elsewhere.  And against most teams, that's how you run for two yards.  Hamm was content to take the five-to-seven and come back and do it again.  There's only one Barry Sanders, so give me the north-south, workhorse stuff all day long.  I loved watching a guy who would - oh, fuck it, Hammer the defense - carry after carry.

Whether Hamm has or will unseat Shepherd or Mizzell this season, nobody can say except those who aren't telling.  Whether that performance will translate to success against actual opponents, nobody can say at all.  But I'm looking forward to finding out.

Other stuff in short:

-- That was the good story of the offense.  The bad story: the passing game.  The numbers are good but the eye test was definitely not.  So many of those yards were YAC, and not like with Mike Rocco where the YAC was often the result of a very well-timed ball.  Watford threw a swing pass behind Kevin Parks and Parks was still able to pick up a ton of yardage; no ACC team will let that happen.

Watford's interceptions were the result of locking in on a receiver to absurd extremes.  Especially the first.  Some blame goes to Miles Gooch for running his route and then stopping, but he was so thoroughly covered that Watford had no business throwing that thing at all.  Watford had some nice throws, too - the one to Tim Smith for a touchdown was gorgeous.  Both his touchdown throws, actually, were excellent.  Even then, he was watching nobody but Smith all the way.  Until he learns to go through his second read he's not going to be a productive QB.

It would help if his receivers gave him a little assistance.  Gooch has been mentioned; Dominique Terrell was also guilty at least once.  Watford was scrambling and Terrell ran to a point on the field and simply stopped moving.  I can't believe this only happened the two times I noticed it.  Marques Hagans has got to impress on these guys that the route doesn't stop where the little arrow ends up.  Of all former quarterbacks - a guy who kept a ton of plays alive with his feet - he ought to know this best.

-- I love the defense, though.  When the announcers talked about how VMI had us "on the ropes" in the first quarter, well, OK, the offense didn't produce, but the VMI offense gained 15 yards the whole quarter.  I mean, come on.  The defense just crushed the fightin' Vimmies.  No contest.  If the offense had played as good a game as the defense it would've been 105-0.  I'm not going back through the annals to find out the last time UVA allowed so few yards (79) but the notes tell us that they allowed 84 to Akron in 2004.  So it goes back further than that.  I would go so far as to say that even with as bad as VMI is, the defense outperformed expectations.

Time for a prediction review:

-- Mizzell and Shepherd combine for at least five more carries than Parks.  The point here was that Parks was going to get a nice light day, maybe not show up in the second half.  I could null it out since nobody knew about their injuries, but I'm giving it to myself, actually, because Hamm by himself had four more carries and then the fourth quarter was turned over to the backups.

-- Watford averages 10 yards per attempt, enough to double his seasonal passing yards if allowed to throw 28 times.  He was at 8.2, which isn't enough for this.

-- At least five new redshirts are burned, two on the O-line.  The grand total is seven: Hamm is one, along with LaChaston Smith, Eric Tetlow, Sadiq Olanrewaju, Eric Smith, Max Valles, and Donte Wilkins.  Most are defensible; LaChaston Smith is the one I have to question.  That hurdle was cool, but couldn't Morgan have just gotten those carries?  Five deep is plenty.  It's doubly screwy because of the very strong possibility that Smith might move to a whole new position eventually.

The rest are fine.  I actually saw someone complaining that Hamm's redshirt had been burned.  Lordy.  You wouldn't have known he was even remotely good if you'd gotten your way.  Besides, Hamm is a walk-on; it's exceedingly wrong to essentially tell a walk-on "for the good of the team we're going to ask you to pay your very expensive way for a fifth year."  The offensive linemen almost had to play; the first-stringers can't take every snap of the season.  And we'll almost certainly see more of Wilkins, too.

-- Defensive tackles account for at least two sacks.  No, but they still dominated.

-- So does Eli Harold.  No, but Trent Corney did, probably against VMI's second-string tackle, although I didn't look to see.

-- Urban bats down at least two passes.  There was actually a lot of very good pressure on Eric Kordenbrock, but VMI did a nice job of keeping his release time short.

I only get two of six, which adds up to 6-for-16 on the year.  Full game prediction, with a win against the spread and a gimme on the straight-up, makes me 2-1 and 2-1 ATS.

We'll cover the rest of the ACC as part of tomorrow's weekend review.

the recruit: Canaan Severin

Name: Canaan Severin
Position: WR
Hometown: Marlboro, MA
School: Worcester Academy
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 210

24/7: 93; four stars; #26 WR; MA #3; US #216
ESPN: 77; three stars; #97 ATH; MA #4; Atlantic #119
Rivals: 5.8; four stars; #22 WR; MA #4
Scout: three stars; #50 WR

Other offers: Penn State, Boston College, Michigan State, Missouri, Iowa, NC State, Purdue, Syracuse, Rutgers, Connecticut, a few smaller ones

And so we come to the temporary end of this series for 2012; Canaan Severin was the most recent recruit to commit to UVA, and he did so way back in September.  It's been that kind of recruiting year.  There may be one or two more commits on the way, but the bulk of the class is basically done.

Severin is my favorite kind of recruit.  Following recruiting is a lot more fun when they follow a path like his.  He started out (from our perspective) as no more or less of a name than a lot of others, and UVA was in a large pile of worthwhile offers.  Virginia stayed in the mix every time the offers were narrowed, all the way to a top three of UVA, PSU, and BC, and there was actually a little drama in the decision.  In fact, he chose UVA less than a week after visiting Penn State.  From the perspective of this site's recruiting board, Severin was added in February to the yellow section, moved up to green in June, blue in August, and orange in September.  So he's a guy we got to follow for a while, and with a happy ending to the story.

Oh, and he's pretty good too.  His game has positives and negatives and both are pretty glaring, which translated to some disparity in his recruiting rankings between the sites.  Let's get the negatives out of the way.  First, he's kind of slow for a receiver.  Everyone that evaluates him makes a point of saying he's a very good athlete, but Scout registers him at 4.7 in the 40.  That would be pretty good for, say, a linebacker, but if you're going to be ranked as one of the top 250 or whatever, the sites want to see that blazing 4.5, 4.4 stuff.  Second, on defense he's a little bit of a tweener - too slow for safety and not big enough for linebacker.  No, we don't care because he's not going to play defense for us, but the recruiting sites aren't in the business of predicting a player's ultimate position, only projecting it.

Severin's size is his biggest positive: he's listed at 210-215 and looks like he could add to that, and he's nice and tall at anywhere from 6'2" to 6'4" depending on which site you ask.  (We'll just say 6'3".)  UVA has a few receivers of similar size on the roster - Miles Gooch, Bobby Smith, Kevin Royal, for example - but you notice I didn't list too many regulars, and only Gooch has athleticism comparable to Severin's.  Smart, too - there was a little chatter about early enrollment which never came to pass, and I think that was more of a deal with his high school's standards than with UVA's.  And he's a little older than the usual recruit - Severin repeated the 10th grade upon transferring to Worcester Academy at the urging of his father.

Part of the reason Severin chose UVA is because our coaches were recruiting him at wide receiver; Penn State kept the possibility of tight end or H-back open, which he wasn't keen on.  So initially at least, that's where he'll be, despite any thoughts you might have about a big guy being moved elsewhere.  He'll have a good chance to come in right away and fill the big-receiver role that's being voided by Matt Snyder.  There'll be some competition in that regard in camp, but Severin comes in on at least an even footing.  None of those aforementioned big receivers saw much of the field, you'll remember (though in Bobby Smith's case, he was hurt,) even though Snyder missed a chunk of the season with a broken foot.  He was just replaced with more Kris Burd.

That means Severin should step right in during the fall and have a chance.  We have a ton of receivers, but Severin's in a niche that's presently unfilled.  Don't look for him to be the kind of guy who gets behind the defense for big yardage; he won't be fast enough.  But he should be able to outmuscle small nickel backs and outmaneuver linebackers for those crucial third-and-sevens.  I don't expect a redshirt year.  I don't expect a 600-yard receiving season right off the bat either, but on the checklist of requirements to contribute right away as a freshman - fills a need, football-mature, athletically capable - Severin fits to a T.  Darius Jennings was the same way, and finished with 20 catches for 238 yards; expectations should be similar for Canaan Severin.

everything update

This is a Virginia blog, right? Just checking. So let's talk a little UVA today. Both the depth chart and the recruiting board get a sprucing up, but the latter is actually a little skimpy. Players are in camp now, meaning high schoolers as well, so it's time for things to die down a little bit. Commitment season cranks up again around mid-to-late September. The only change to the recruiting board is the removal of OT Jake Goins, who to nobody's surprise committed to Tech.

The depth chart is also updated with some of the news out of fall camp. There's actually surprisingly little shuffling for a team with new systems and a new coach. Changes so far:

- Jake McGee moves from QB to TE.
- Hunter Steward moves from OT to DT.
- Pablo Alvarez moves from S to CB.
- Corey Lillard and Quintin Hunter have left the program.

The first two are on the "NCAA is investigating Lane Kiffin's recruiting practices" level of surprise. The first is to alleviate a logjam of too much depth, and the second is to create it at a position of need. McGee had been talked about as a tight end from the day he committed. Alvarez could be at any secondary position and it wouldn't change the fact that the secondary is absurdly, unbelievably thin. The eight scholarship non-freshmen in the secondary are enough - if nobody gets hurt. Which is asking a lot.

Future changes to the depth chart are in order, although nothing earthshaking appears to be in the offing. Miles Gooch will be moved, we just don't know where. I'm guessing WR, but we'll see. That's about it for position moves. And running back aside, we're even a little light on position battles. What needs to be resolved:

- Backup quarterback. Mike Rocco has been making his presence known, and while it'd be a mild surprise if he were to leapfrog into the #2 spot, it'd only be a mild surprise. The order of things behind Marc Verica is way up in the air.
- Running back slots 1 through 7. This'll go all the way to September 4. Keith Payne is officially in, so seven it is.
- I don't think the offensive tackles will change between now and the end of camp, but I do think things will shake up as the season goes on.
- ILB is a little unresolved between Steve Greer and Aaron Taliaferro, but I'm thinking Greer in the end.

Two real position battles, and one of them we hope the winner never has to see the field except against, say, VMI. It's a decidedly drama-free camp, relatively speaking. Enjoy it because next year shapes up like a good old-fashioned quarterback tussle. Probably a four-way fight, at least in the beginning.

Other news:

- Condolences to tight end Colter Phillips and his family; his father was killed in the Alaska plane crash that also killed former senator Ted Stevens.

- It turns out college football players aren't much different from the general population when it comes to the subject of playoffs. The majority want one, but once you start talking about what you'd have to sacrifice to get it, support drops off. An overwhelming majority like their bowl trips. And who can blame them? Free vacation to (usually) somewhere nice, and a goody bag to boot.

They're like the general population in one other respect, too: It appears that most of them have their pet idea, just like the fans. See, fans think a playoff is great, but if you tell them you have to have a playoff that's much different from their gumdrop rainbow vision of it, they don't like the idea as much. Start proposing actual playoff ideas instead of "do you want a playoff" and there are a lot more "no" answers than "yes."

- Fluff articles don't usually tell you much of anything, but I have a strict policy that requires linking to any fluff that informs you when you're rooting for players nicknamed Shrek and Donkey. That'd be big Morgan Moses - who dropped 15 pounds in order to show up weighing 350 - and Kevin Parks. New game plan: Line up Parks and Perry Jones behind Big Mo so nobody can see them (they'll both fit) and make the opponents guess which has the ball. And then it won't matter anyway because Mo will eat them if they get too close to the ball.

Seriously, that is a guy who it will be impossible to keep off the field. Once he gains even a rudimentary knowledge of the offense it'll be way too tempting to avoid just tossing him in there and running behind him.

- UNC is getting deeper into trouble all the time. If this turns out true, the NCAA will likely find the players involved ineligible and make UNC vacate the '09 season and tack on a few scholarship sacrifices for good measure. John Blake is a shady, shady character, the kind that everybody seems to know something about but clams up once the NCAA starts getting serious.

the recruit: Jake McGee

Two things first:

One: fahhhhhkkkkk. Do not use Yahoo's gametracker to follow games, ever. Last night's game turned out bad enough, but it wasn't on TV around these parts so I did what I normally do in such situations: follow along on a gametracker. Yahoo somehow forgot to record VT's 65th point, so after Sammy hit his three-pointer with no time left, the screen said 65-64, final. Yay! No, actually, boo - and then, dammit. It makes losing, like, twice the fun. As for the game itself, choking away a lead (more than once) makes for a pretty good lesson in closing out an opponent, but couldn't we have learned that same lesson against NC State? Hopefully we get ours back in a couple weeks.

Two. It's a common complaint among UVA fans that recruits who verbal our way, especially early, get the "UVA discount" in their star ratings. Oh, you picked Virginia over Penn State? I guess you really don't need that fourth star. It does work both ways, though, and that brings us to Miles Gooch, whose ESPN evaluation magically showed up a day or two after his verbal here. Suddenly, Gooch is our highest rated recruit for 2010. It says some interesting things, too, like: "Gooch is a very intriguing quarterback and athlete that is comparable to another QB in this class, Devin Gardner." (!!) Well hell, Rivals thinks Gardner is the best QB in the country this year. Athleticism is definitely a trait they have in common, but the other similarity would be their delivery - Gardner's is weird and ESPN goes on to call Gooch's "almost indescribable." That's not a good thing. But his arm strength is, as is his athleticism, and the ringing endorsement from one of the scouting services bumps up the intrigue on Gooch a notch.

Now for yet another quarterback-playin' dude that might or might not do that in college.

Name: Jake McGee
Position: QB (? TE?)
Hometown: Richmond
School: Collegiate
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 210

ESPN: no ranking
Rivals: 5.2, two stars
Scout: isn't aware of his existence

McGee has managed to be something of a catalyst in dividing the UVA fanbase in their evaluation of Mike London's recruiting efforts thus far. One school of thought says, "Great, we're competing with ODU and Richmond for recruits now. Nice to see London has turned us into a I-AA program." On the other hand, there's: "Heath Miller was a lightly-recruited quarterback who we turned into a tight end and that worked out pretty well, and besides, Groh ignored the last quarterback to come out of Collegiate and NC State got the spoils." (That would be Russell Wilson.)

Both of you, stop it, you're being retarded.

Obviously, Heath Miller was on the far right end of the bell curve. And just because Collegiate turned out a pretty damn good quarterback last time doesn't mean they will this time. I never want to hear this argument again. And on the other hand, anyone who bellyaches about the ratings and profiles of the recruits we're getting doesn't have a handle on reality; from which part of the thin air would you like London to pull a few four-stars at this stage of the recruiting game?

That said, I would have to lean a little toward the side that has to wonder if McGee really will be a contributor. His stats are impresivo, no question, as with all D-I quarterbacks. And his performance in the state championship game was nothing short of mindblowing. Seven touchdowns - four throwing and three rushing. Almost 400 yards of offense generated by himself, divided between the passing and rushing. And he plays safety, too, and picked off a pass to stop an enemy drive to the end zone. This is small-school stuff, the private-school championship, so take it for what you will, but clearly McGee had no peer on the field that day.

But when it came down to brass tacks, his only offers were from Richmond and Princeton. And this isn't because nobody knew where to look for him. Like I said, Collegiate turned out Russell Wilson, so ACC schools know about the place, and at least five of them poked their noses around the place looking for tapes and stuff on McGee, UVA included. It didn't result in a single I-A offer. Football programs ranging the spectrum from Northwestern to Florida recruited him a bit but didn't offer. At Richmond he was probably one of the prize recruits in the class - like, QB of the future type - but at UVA, he's honestly going to have a hard time squeezing into the mix, especially as he's the third recruit in this class alone to be listed by the services as a quarterback. The likelihood of his remaining there remains slim, as Strauss was the first guy the new regime offered and Gooch is the Devin Gardner-like athlete with the rocket arm and weird-ass delivery.

So what'll it be for McGee? The height screams tight end. One negative of the short-lived Gregg Brandon experiment was that it drove off half the tight ends and we spent the summer and fall not really recruiting any, so there's definitely an opening or two. If we don't gain any tight ends by trade between now and Signing Day, you can probably write it in pen for McGee. Even if we do, the mix at quarterback is getting crowded and I don't see McGee breaking into it. It's not a stretch to imagine him on defense, either. He's actually a little tall for a college safety and a little light (right now) for linebacker, but if he can put on enough weight for tight end he can play linebacker too. All speculation at this point, some of it the result of my overactive imagination. Sign him now, figure out where to put him later. That's kind of the way it tends to be with guys like McGee, who played quarterback in high school because for a lot of schools that's just where you put your best athlete. And McGee plays basketball well enough to have gained some interest from a few D-I schools there, too - athleticism is not in question. Redshirt year seems guaranteed while the coaching staff figures this question out, and we'll check in two years down the road to see about how much he'll see the field once we know where he settles in.

the recruit: Miles Gooch

Name: Miles Gooch
Position: QB
Hometown: Decatur, GA
School: Towers
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 215

ESPN: 40
Rivals: 5.5, three stars
Scout: two stars

This is the kind of recruiting we were pretty much destined to do once Al Groh was officially shown the door; it is uncharitably known as "picking up the scraps" though I believe the preferred nomenclature is "looking for sleepers." Well, Miles Gooch is a bit of a sleeper.

There's no story to tell about his recruitment. Well, hardly any. Playing in a mid-level division out on the edge of the Atlanta burbs for a school that had a crap football team in 2008 contributes pretty heavily to the lack of attention paid to Gooch during this past season. He got offers from an assortment of local I-AA schools, plus Toledo and Western Kentucky. Last week he picked Toledo, but after receiving his offer from UVA, correctly deduced that UVA is the superior school in most if not all aspects and promptly switched. Up until today (because I checked yesterday while the news of his commitment was still behind a paywall) Gooch was unrated by Rivals and probably received three stars of the oh-look-you-committed-somewhere-where-people-will-pay-attention variety.

Gooch's stats are the usual high-level stuff you see from someone who's headed for D-I football, but not eye-popping, and the completion percentage is low. Arm strength is usually what people mention when they talk about Gooch. Honorable mention in the state of Georgia for his division; the quarterback who beat him out is going to South Carolina, though, so, no shame really in losing out. Also has the requisite BEST QUARTERBACK EVER (or at least, in the state right now) endorsement from coaches who've had to game-plan against him, so that's one vote.

Plain truth is, Gooch probably wouldn't have gotten a sniff if he were a pocket passer. Big guy, fast (runs track), strong arm, tough to tackle, but not the world's most polished quarterback. You could do a lot worse than having a linebacker-sized guy with receiver speed on your team, even if he's not still a quarterback by the time he sees the field.

Speaking of his future prospects on the team: I shouldn't need to tell you that he's not going to play a down at quarterback in 2010. If he does, which he won't, we really will be in major-league trouble, which we won't be, because he's going to settle himself into the fourth or fifth spot on the depth chart and develop. He also will not play quarterback in 2011, and probably not in 2012 either. In fact, by this time, his transition to some other position may already have begun, as it has with Riko Smalls, especially if the coaching staff has been bringing in quarterbacks in future recruiting classes. After all, "athletic backup quarterback" is often just another way of saying "future wide receiver." Smalls, in fact, is probably a perfectly apt comparison: Gooch isn't polished enough to definitely project as a college quarterback and athletic enough that UVA fans will (mostly sight unseen other than some exciting highlights tapes) ignore his position on the depth chart and loudly call for him to take snaps after getting fed up with the incumbent quarterback. In any case, it'll be a couple years before we learn what the story will be; regardless of position, though, if he's coachable and picks up what he has to, a player with the raw athleticism he has won't stay off the field for four years.

Oh, small blog-related note: recruiting board(s) will get their updates tomorrow.