I didn't want to have to revisit this, and we're not going to for very long, but I can't really call myself a writer (even an occasional one which is how things are these days) without some kind of reaction to UVA's tourney exit. It'd be nice if I could just write the other stuff I wanna write and ignore That, but that'd be weird.
We were this damn close to a miniature form of basketball immortality, until the gut punch that looked at first like pure desperation. There are some armchair coaches floating around on the netz that suggest UVA should've done this or that against the zone, which is stupid because UVA was crushing the zone like a bug. It doesn't take a genius to see that the press is what won Syracuse the game, and for about five minutes of basketball it threw the Hoos for a totally uncharacteristic loop.
That's what the real nut-kick is: that was a tactic that should never have worked and wouldn't again. UVA is the team with Cali-cool at point guard and the most deliberate coach in the game and veterans everywhere within dead-cat-swinging range. With a big honking lead and less than a quarter to go to the Final Four, this is the team that you'd expect to dribble back around in circles unless a wide-open dunk presented itself without even trying. Time would roll off the clock and Syracuse would be forced to play the defense they'd been playing all game that wasn't working.
Perhaps Tony expected it, too, placing maybe a bit more trust in his players than was warranted - and this is a team that warrants a metric dumptruck of trust. Many coaches would've called timeout and settled their charges down a bit. Refocused the defense - and reminded them that no Cuse basket = no Cuse press. Tony elected to let them play, let them run, and one imagines he wishes he'd pulled the trigger on a timeout somewhere around the lead dwindling to about seven.
Nut-kick number two is that the First Book of Tony just slammed shut. I told you it was going to regardless of tourney outcome, I just wish it would've waited another week. This feels like losing the '14 CWS Final to Vanderbilt. You're welcome to take that as a mega-positive sign given what happened the following year, but one part of the reason that was so damn cool is that it was so damn unlikely.
Also, because it still featured a lot of players who deserved to hoist something just based on longevity alone. Many of the best stories - think Nathan Kirby, Kenny Towns - were still there. Of course, everyone wearing a UVA uniform deserves championships for multitudes of reasons, but the core seniors of this basketball team - Brogdon, Gill, Tobey, Nolte - also own like 75% of the deserving-ness, and that was their last chance. Such are the incredible cruelties of the tournament - if this was football, they'd at least have like a Sugar Bowl championship or something.
Bowl games are cool that way. You can have your cake and eat it too. That one time we crushed West Virginia, or held Larry Fitzgerald to like a catch or two, they'll always provide nice fuzzy memories. Blowing the BlueTurf Bowl to Fresno State elicits a "whatever." Winning is great. Losing is not that bad, it's just an exhibition anyway. Tournaments are different, especially this one. That Final Four would've lasted forever, but since we got so close and didn't grab it, so will not getting there. The Second Book of Tony will start in the fall, and the ceiling on it is unlimited, but the last chance to write the First Book is over.
Showing posts with label ncaa tournament. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ncaa tournament. Show all posts
Thursday, March 31, 2016
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
sweet ain't easy
The Sweet 16 is so easy and so hard at the same time. All you have to do is win two games in one weekend. How hard can that be? Hard enough that 48 teams can't do it, though; following the play-in games, the cruelties of the tournament eliminate three-quarters of the participants in four days. You get a lot of unhappy press conferences.
Sweet 16s are interesting partly for who's not in them. The 1 and 2 seeds are viewed as these bracket titans, nigh-impossible to stop on the first weekend. And why not? These are teams that lost, like, twice a month at most. And yet, since the expansion of the tournament to 64 teams, only three tourney fields have failed to knock out at least one 1 or 2 seed in the first weekend. Those would be 1989, 1995, and 2009. (And '09 was a really chalky tournament, notable for featuring all four 1, 2, and 3 seeds in the Sweet 16, but the 1/2 seed carnage in 1989's S16 was something to behold.) This year didn't disappoint in the surprises department, punching out half of its 3 seeds, keeping the 12/5 faith alive, and delivering the 8th-ever 15/2 upset. The list of teams-not-here is long and distinguished, even if you don't count the names that didn't even make the tourney (UCLA, Georgetown, Marquette). Kentucky, Michigan State, Arizona - there's a lot of Final Fours represented there. (30, if you were wondering.)
This is to say that even though UVA was "supposed" to make the Sweet 16, nothing is actually supposed to happen. Ten of last year's 16 aren't here this year. And so on and so forth. It's minor compared to what could still happen, but the last senior class of the First Book of Tony does have something to hang its hat on.
-- Voters for the Wooden Award may or may not have turned in their ballots before the Butler game. If they waited, what Malcolm Brogdon did to that game might just sway them. Buddy Hield is a better scorer than Brogdon, so he's the front-runner, but goodness, how many teams in the nation possess a defensive weapon like what UVA unleashed on an unsuspecting Andrew Chrabascz? 24 points for Chrabascz before Brogdon started sitting on him, and zero field goals after.
-- Which itself is only half of the Malcolm Brogdon story. Last year, right around this time, I was positing that Brogdon could take over games if he wanted to, but didn't because he didn't know he could. I quote from my own season review: "He has it in him to be that clutch scorer who's there when you absolutely, positively need a bucket, and he's flashed that ability. If he figures that out, UVA might not lose a close game all year." Well, UVA did lose close games - all of their losses are close - but the contrast between then and now couldn't be plainer. UVA lost last year in this very same round because 1) they couldn't buy a three and 2) they didn't have anyone to say "eff it I'm goin' deep." Brogdon has discovered his Eff-It Mode. This is a guy who plays 39 out of 40 minutes, rarely fouls, destroys your best scorer, and can't be fouled, left any room to shoot a jumper, or successfully guarded by anyone either smaller or bigger than him.
-- This comes to attention partly because the sideline reporter for the Butler game actually asked Tony an intelligent question that elicited an insightful answer (about the Brogdon-on-Chrabascz matchup), which is a huge step up from the usual "tell me how you feel" nonsense. Combined with the fact that Mike Kryz-that-guy actually gave his own sideline interview, I suspect something in the Official Powerade.
-- Putting Louisville in the bracket would've shuffled the whole thing, changed all the matchups, etc., so it'd be wrong to say, "just think how well the ACC would be doing if Louisville were here too." But it is legitimate to be impressed that the ACC is 6 of 16 without even giving a chance to one of the top ten KenPom teams in the country.
-- I got my first look at the disappointing lacrosse team this past weekend. It was not the disaster I expected, obviously, and two incredibly close losses to the top two teams in the ACC are a bummer, but also a clue that there's still a flicker of brilliance, somewhere. One thing I didn't see was the goaltending that has been the #1 gripe on the boardz. Matt Barrett was excellent, which you don't even need to have watched any lacrosse to know is a 180 from his previous outings. It offered slight hope that a tourney berth can be salvaged, but UVA would have to win - oh, probably every game from here on out to make that happen.
Sweet 16s are interesting partly for who's not in them. The 1 and 2 seeds are viewed as these bracket titans, nigh-impossible to stop on the first weekend. And why not? These are teams that lost, like, twice a month at most. And yet, since the expansion of the tournament to 64 teams, only three tourney fields have failed to knock out at least one 1 or 2 seed in the first weekend. Those would be 1989, 1995, and 2009. (And '09 was a really chalky tournament, notable for featuring all four 1, 2, and 3 seeds in the Sweet 16, but the 1/2 seed carnage in 1989's S16 was something to behold.) This year didn't disappoint in the surprises department, punching out half of its 3 seeds, keeping the 12/5 faith alive, and delivering the 8th-ever 15/2 upset. The list of teams-not-here is long and distinguished, even if you don't count the names that didn't even make the tourney (UCLA, Georgetown, Marquette). Kentucky, Michigan State, Arizona - there's a lot of Final Fours represented there. (30, if you were wondering.)
This is to say that even though UVA was "supposed" to make the Sweet 16, nothing is actually supposed to happen. Ten of last year's 16 aren't here this year. And so on and so forth. It's minor compared to what could still happen, but the last senior class of the First Book of Tony does have something to hang its hat on.
-- Voters for the Wooden Award may or may not have turned in their ballots before the Butler game. If they waited, what Malcolm Brogdon did to that game might just sway them. Buddy Hield is a better scorer than Brogdon, so he's the front-runner, but goodness, how many teams in the nation possess a defensive weapon like what UVA unleashed on an unsuspecting Andrew Chrabascz? 24 points for Chrabascz before Brogdon started sitting on him, and zero field goals after.
-- Which itself is only half of the Malcolm Brogdon story. Last year, right around this time, I was positing that Brogdon could take over games if he wanted to, but didn't because he didn't know he could. I quote from my own season review: "He has it in him to be that clutch scorer who's there when you absolutely, positively need a bucket, and he's flashed that ability. If he figures that out, UVA might not lose a close game all year." Well, UVA did lose close games - all of their losses are close - but the contrast between then and now couldn't be plainer. UVA lost last year in this very same round because 1) they couldn't buy a three and 2) they didn't have anyone to say "eff it I'm goin' deep." Brogdon has discovered his Eff-It Mode. This is a guy who plays 39 out of 40 minutes, rarely fouls, destroys your best scorer, and can't be fouled, left any room to shoot a jumper, or successfully guarded by anyone either smaller or bigger than him.
-- This comes to attention partly because the sideline reporter for the Butler game actually asked Tony an intelligent question that elicited an insightful answer (about the Brogdon-on-Chrabascz matchup), which is a huge step up from the usual "tell me how you feel" nonsense. Combined with the fact that Mike Kryz-that-guy actually gave his own sideline interview, I suspect something in the Official Powerade.
-- Putting Louisville in the bracket would've shuffled the whole thing, changed all the matchups, etc., so it'd be wrong to say, "just think how well the ACC would be doing if Louisville were here too." But it is legitimate to be impressed that the ACC is 6 of 16 without even giving a chance to one of the top ten KenPom teams in the country.
-- I got my first look at the disappointing lacrosse team this past weekend. It was not the disaster I expected, obviously, and two incredibly close losses to the top two teams in the ACC are a bummer, but also a clue that there's still a flicker of brilliance, somewhere. One thing I didn't see was the goaltending that has been the #1 gripe on the boardz. Matt Barrett was excellent, which you don't even need to have watched any lacrosse to know is a 180 from his previous outings. It offered slight hope that a tourney berth can be salvaged, but UVA would have to win - oh, probably every game from here on out to make that happen.
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
green and white elephant in the room
The #1 thing that makes sports interesting is the suspense. That's kind of what makes anything interesting, really, but sports are better than movies or books at producing it. Suspense, not action, is what keeps us interested, otherwise hockey would be a fifty billion dollar business and baseball would've never left the semi-pro ranks.** ESPN finally realized this by no longer showing you which draft prospect was on the phone during a particular pick and everybody said thank you, why did you even start that in the first place? (Because as a media entity, their first instinct is to scoop rather than entertain.)
So I should be all kinds of pissed off at the narcissistic attention whore who decided to leak the bracket early. But I'm not. Because, facing the prospect of a bloated two-hour selection show "featuring more analysis and interviews" (and as a totally unintentional consequence, more ads) I just decided to extend my Tivo-enabled middle finger to CBS. I taped the thing, stayed off the internets, started watching an hour late, and zipped through everything that looked unrelated to an actual bracket or a few discussion bones about my teams. It took 45 minutes. It was wonderful. CBS can lard up the show all it likes with inane blabber and money grabs, but I'm not going to look at any of it unless they put it back to an hour, tops. Just the matchups, ma'am. Don't care what some guy in a suit thinks about them.
And as a bonus, the bracket leak embarrassed CBS and called attention to the fact that people don't actually want to put up with their shit.
Now for the bracket itself. It sucks. Mainly because of Chicago. And who UVA will play in Chicago, if they earn their way there. Chicago attracts Purdue and MSU grads like you wouldn't believe. The committee handed the #1 seed two road games blocking the way to the Final Four. It's no wonder the whole world is picking MSU to get there instead. Well, that and they've beaten us the last two years and Tom Izzo is postseason gold. The pundits love this, though - it's the really easy way out from picking all #1 seeds to make the FF.
Of course, UVA-MSU requires each team to win three games - but MSU is a near-lock to hold up its end of the bargain. Conventional wisdom is that Seton Hall has the best chance to knock them off before then, but Seton Hall has to get past Gonzaga and most likely 3-seed Utah - though Utah isn't much of a 3-seed. And besides the fact that MSU won the last two games, now they come into the tournament as the top three-point shooting team in the country.
It sets up perfectly for them, really - Chicago, a fairly easy path to at least the E8, and the lifeblood of every Sparty in existence: DIZREZPEKT. Putting UVA #1 over them is actually a fairly easy decision for two reasons: the ACC is by every metric a tougher conference than the B1G, and MSU's strength of schedule is middling while UVA's is elite. The main argument against it is "well UVA isn't a conference champion," which given that both teams were 13-5 in the regular season and made the conference championship game, basically boils down to "we beat the #4 team in the conference but you lost to #1." It would've been maybe a good idea for them not to put four sub-300 teams in KenPom's rankings on their OOC. But despite the logic, you'll never get a Sparty to believe their 2 seed is anything but ACC bias (even though their AD is like the #2 guy on the committee) and disrespect on a galactic scale, which is exactly how they like it.
All we can do is hope UVA gets to that E8 game in Chicago and then brings the single best game they've ever played in the Tony Bennett era.
**I'm not trashing baseball. I love baseball. It's like 250 little mini-dramas - at least one every pitch - rolled into one beautiful sunny afternoon.
So I should be all kinds of pissed off at the narcissistic attention whore who decided to leak the bracket early. But I'm not. Because, facing the prospect of a bloated two-hour selection show "featuring more analysis and interviews" (and as a totally unintentional consequence, more ads) I just decided to extend my Tivo-enabled middle finger to CBS. I taped the thing, stayed off the internets, started watching an hour late, and zipped through everything that looked unrelated to an actual bracket or a few discussion bones about my teams. It took 45 minutes. It was wonderful. CBS can lard up the show all it likes with inane blabber and money grabs, but I'm not going to look at any of it unless they put it back to an hour, tops. Just the matchups, ma'am. Don't care what some guy in a suit thinks about them.
And as a bonus, the bracket leak embarrassed CBS and called attention to the fact that people don't actually want to put up with their shit.
Now for the bracket itself. It sucks. Mainly because of Chicago. And who UVA will play in Chicago, if they earn their way there. Chicago attracts Purdue and MSU grads like you wouldn't believe. The committee handed the #1 seed two road games blocking the way to the Final Four. It's no wonder the whole world is picking MSU to get there instead. Well, that and they've beaten us the last two years and Tom Izzo is postseason gold. The pundits love this, though - it's the really easy way out from picking all #1 seeds to make the FF.
Of course, UVA-MSU requires each team to win three games - but MSU is a near-lock to hold up its end of the bargain. Conventional wisdom is that Seton Hall has the best chance to knock them off before then, but Seton Hall has to get past Gonzaga and most likely 3-seed Utah - though Utah isn't much of a 3-seed. And besides the fact that MSU won the last two games, now they come into the tournament as the top three-point shooting team in the country.
It sets up perfectly for them, really - Chicago, a fairly easy path to at least the E8, and the lifeblood of every Sparty in existence: DIZREZPEKT. Putting UVA #1 over them is actually a fairly easy decision for two reasons: the ACC is by every metric a tougher conference than the B1G, and MSU's strength of schedule is middling while UVA's is elite. The main argument against it is "well UVA isn't a conference champion," which given that both teams were 13-5 in the regular season and made the conference championship game, basically boils down to "we beat the #4 team in the conference but you lost to #1." It would've been maybe a good idea for them not to put four sub-300 teams in KenPom's rankings on their OOC. But despite the logic, you'll never get a Sparty to believe their 2 seed is anything but ACC bias (even though their AD is like the #2 guy on the committee) and disrespect on a galactic scale, which is exactly how they like it.
All we can do is hope UVA gets to that E8 game in Chicago and then brings the single best game they've ever played in the Tony Bennett era.
**I'm not trashing baseball. I love baseball. It's like 250 little mini-dramas - at least one every pitch - rolled into one beautiful sunny afternoon.
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
game preview: Coastal Carolina
Date/Time: Friday, March 21; 9:25
TV: TBS
Record against the Chanticleers: 2-0
Last meeting: UVA 89, CCU 74; 12/22/03, Charlottesville
Last game: UVA 72, Duke 63 (3/16); CCU 76, Winthrop 61 (3/9)
KenPom:
Tempo:
UVA: 61.0 (#345)
CCU: 67.1 (#132)
Offense:
UVA: 114.1 (#22)
CCU: 97.6 (#292)
Defense:
UVA: 89.5 (#3)
CCU: 102.1 (#113)
Pythag:
UVA: .9423 (#4)
CCU: .3729 (#222)
Projected lineups:
Virginia:
PG: London Perrantes (5.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 3.8 apg)
SG: Malcolm Brogdon (12.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 2.6 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (11.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.3 apg)
PF: Akil Mitchell (7.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 1.2 apg)
C: Mike Tobey (6.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.3 apg)
Coastal Carolina:
PG: Josh Cameron (14.1 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.5 apg)
SG: Warren Gillis (14.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.2 apg)
SG: Elijah Wilson (16.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 0.9 apg)
PF: Badou Diagne (7.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 0.8 apg)
C: El Hadji Ndieguene (4.4 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 0.6 apg)
Quick programming note: I'm going to a hockey game tomorrow and don't expect to have time to write the preview, so it flies out the door tonight. No post Thursday; Friday may see a Hopkins preview. For obvious reasons, this is not guaranteed.
So, then: a Chanticleer. Daphuq? Chanticleer is the name of a cock-of-the-walk rooster out of a medieval fable, who triumphs over the fox who wants to eat him but first learns a lesson about humility. Very Aesop, but with a Middle Ages origin. Coastal Carolina is an independent school in its own right, but began life as a satellite school of the University of South Carolina, similar to the George Mason story. Hence, a rooster nickname, to honor these roots.
As for the basketball team itself, they are here as the representative of the Big South Conference, KenPom's 27th strongest out of 32 conferences. They might be especially notable for a collection of candidates for the tournament's all-name team, including Colton Ray-St Cyr, El Hadji Ndieguene, and Uros Ljeskovic. This will be their first NCAA tourney game since 1993. (They lost in the first round to the Michigan Fab Five team that would later become infamous for calling a nonexistent timeout.)
They're coached by Cliff Ellis, a guy with a long coaching history who once got Auburn an SEC championship and then had them ranked #1 overall in the preseason. Ellis also coached at Clemson many moons ago, and has done enough weird things in his life (ostrich farming?) that if you didn't see them in his official website bio, you'd think someone was screwing around with Wikipedia.
The stakes now do not change: survive and advance. Memphis and Georgetown play at 6:55 - the previous game - so, should we be ever so fortunate enough not to be the first 1 seed to lose their first tourney game, we'll already know our opponent for Sunday.
-- UVA on offense
The Chanticleers are the Big South champions because of defense. They're the only team in their conference not to royally suck at it. They rank at least 60 spots higher in KenPom's D-rating than any of their conference rivals and over 125 spots higher than all but one of them. In fact, at 113th in the country they outrank three ACC squads, albeit three teams whom UVA beat handily. Clemson completely smoked Coastal in their nonconference meeting in November, but Coastal's defense held them in some other games against big-conference teams, namely close losses to Ole Miss and NIT 1-seed Minnesota.
Cliff Ellis once wrote a book called "Zone Press Variations for Winning Basketball," and UVA will probably see some of this at times. Fortunately, all those old concerns about press-breaking have melted away, and UVA has had very little trouble with the press all season. Coastal can also be expected to go to the zone in the halfcourt sometimes.
Like most any mid-major, Coastal will give up a pretty significant amount of size to UVA. El Hadji Ndieguene, at 6'10", 240, can legitimately be called a center, but 6'8" Uros Ljeskovic and 6'7" Tristian Curtis get only back-of-the-rotation minutes. Badou Diagne has some length and shot-blocking skills, but UVA will have a size advantage most of the game if not all of it.
Diagne will likely be the biggest challenge on defense, as he's a top rebounder and does a pretty good job of defending without fouling, for a big man. And Warren Gillis gets a few steals now and again. All this said, though, a sizable athleticism gap is going to present itself, and there ought to be at least a few possessions where the basket appears the size of a hula hoop.
-- UVA on defense
This is where the matchup gets unfair. Coastal is the second-worst KenPom team in the 68-team field, after Texas Southern, which just got bounced by 13-17 Cal Poly. Offense is why. Ranked 292nd in the country by KenPom, they're easily the worst offensive team in the tournament by almost 60 spots. Even in just Big South play, they were 9th of 12 in their conference.
In a nutshell, Coastal is a team that is sloppy with the ball and not great shooting from outside; they generate second-chance points with good offensive rebounding, but depend heavily on the creation skills of their guards. Only 40% of their baskets are assisted, which is one of the lowest numbers in the country.
Shooting is dominated by point guard Josh Cameron and shooting guards Elijah Wilson and Warren Gillis. Cameron is a decent outside shooter but undersized and not good inside, and his A/T ratio is underwater at about 0.9/1 - highly undesirable in a point guard. Gillis and Wilson are quite a bit more efficient; Gillis has a very solid midrange game, while Wilson can get to the rim but overshoots from deep and isn't especially good at it. Gillis is also an 85% free-throw shooter, and Wilson takes very good care of the ball.
Outside of that trio, the only player with an O-rating over 100 is Badou Diagne, an occasional three-point shooter who also makes over three-quarters of his shots at the rim. Anyone else with the ball in their hands - not a big threat. After watching the work Akil Mitchell did on Duke's Jabari Parker, Diagne shouldn't be much of a concern either.
We've seen what happens, though, when UVA plays a team that doesn't take good care of the ball. Florida State has good, ACC-level athletes and UVA beat them by double digits three times. Diagne is the only thing resembling a scoring threat down low, and Mitchell can neutralize him, allowing UVA to focus on Coastal's guards. Don't be surprised if the Chanticleers fail to touch 40 points. This isn't a team that can score even on its usual Big South opposition.
-- Outlook
If a 16 seed is ever going to beat a 1 seed, it won't be when a really poor offensive team, who doesn't take care of the ball and whose 3-point shooting is mediocre on a good day, takes on a defensive juggernaut. UVA should cruise in this opening-round game, the margin of victory kept down mainly from taking the foot off the gas pedal in the later stages.
Final score: UVA 68, CCU 41
Thursday, June 6, 2013
series preview: Mississippi State
Date/Time: Sat-Mon, 6/8-6/10/13; 1:00, 7:00, 4:00 (last game if necessary)
TV: Sat, Mon ESPN2, Sun ESPNUVA
Record against the Bulldogs: 0-0
Last meeting: Never
Last game: UVA 11, Elon 3 (6/2); MSU 6, UCA 1 (6/3)
Last weekend: UVA 3-0 over Army and Elon; MSU 3-1 over UCA and USA
National rankings:
Baseball America: UVA #6, MSU #14
Collegiate Baseball: UVA #6, MSU #12
NCBWA: UVA #6, MSU #9
Perfect Game: UVA #4, MSU #12
Coaches: UVA #6, MSU #11
Composite: UVA #6, MSU #11
Mississippi State lineup:
C: Nick Ammirati (.264-1-23)
1B: Wes Rea (.276-6-35)
2B: Brett Pirtle (.310-2-31)
SS: Adam Frazier (.344-0-33)
3B: Sam Frost (.295-0-9)
LF: Demarcus Henderson (.265-0-20)
CF: C.T. Bradford (.288-1-24)
RF: Hunter Renfroe (.352-15-58)
DH: Alex Detz (.330-1-31)
Lineup notes: Very few to speak of. MSU has basically settled on this for their tournament lineup, and used it for the entire regional weekend. Jacob Robson played left field during the SEC tournament and has 20-some starts under his belt, but is hitting .208 on the season so it seems most of the cream has risen to the top here.
Pitching probables:
Haven't come out yet, and I'm not going to try and guess. It'll be Waddell and Silverstein in some order the first two days and then Howard or Mayberry. As for the Bulldogs, they've taken to not using a starting rotation per se. They have a very, very deep bullpen and lately have been bypassing two of their starters and just starting the relievers for a couple innings.
*****************************************
It's hard for me to get used to "MSU" in this context because I'm a Big Ten guy from way back, and MSU usually means Sparty. But this is the SEC version.... and you can tell when you take a peek at how many of their fans view this series. Which is to say, like most southern types: "we're better because SEC." The fifth-best team in the SEC is always better than the best or second-best anywhere else.
You can give MSU some credit in this regard because they don't play in the SEC's truly bad Eastern Division, where the third-best team out of seven had a losing record and flopped badly in the regionals with a loss to Valparaiso. That said, rationality and SEC fans aren't especially well-acquainted. Some of the logic being employed:
-- "Dawgs win because UVA never won convincingly in their regional." 11-3 is apparently less convincing than both 5-3 and a loss to the 4 seed. That's adorable.
-- "Take away our LSU losses but not our LSU win and we're 4-1 [against remaining teams.]" I wasn't aware you could do that.
That stuff comes from here, which I link not because I endorse it necessarily (I would say the ratio of retards to sanity is about 1-1) but so you have proof that people actually say these things and believe them. Anyways, one thing MSU does have going for it is the nation's biggest college baseball stadium. Lucky for us, the game is in Charlottesville; it'd probably tough sailing in Starkville and with a lot more cowbell.
-- UVA at bat
The overwhelming strength of the MSU roster is their bullpen. If you had to name a three-man starting rotation, it would be righty Kendall Graveman and lefties Jacob Lindgren and Luis Pollorena. Graveman, however, is the only one who I'd put money on being given a start this weekend. Graveman's a solid pitcher who throws a sinking fastball; he's been a little inconsistent at times this year but more good than bad, as he sports a 2.94 ERA, and his average start goes into the 7th inning. I'd expect MSU to use him Saturday; if he goes deep they'll be in great shape for the weekend with a ton of bullets in the chamber for the next couple of days.
That bullpen is the barrier to be climbed. Righty Jonathan Holder is one of the nation's elite closers; six earned runs in 43 innings gives him a 1.17 ERA, and he's allowing opposing hitters to bat .149 against him. There are no fewer than four relievers on the roster with ERAs under 2, with maybe the most notable being lefty Ross Mitchell, who averages almost three innings an appearance. MSU leans very heavily on him out of the pen; he's got a gawky delivery that's not quite sidearm and not quite three-quarters, and MSU has a similar guy in Chad Girodo, who sports a beautiful 1.10 ERA.
Power right-hander Ben Bracewell is the fourth member of the sub-2 club, and he's a guy the Bulldogs have put on the hill to start a couple games lately as well. They'll use him for two or three innings or so and then bring in the rest of the pen. Trevor Fitts and Will Cox, both righties, are two others who might be used in this role; both tall righties with ERAs in the 2-something range. That's six outstanding relief pitchers we've just gone over, without mentioning Myles Gentry, whose been a little unlucky as his ERA is up over 3 (horrors) but his OpBA is only .200.
It's likely mostly righties we'll see on the mound, especially if the Bulldogs skip lefty starters Lindgren and Pollorena, which they very well might do. The pen is tilted a little toward righties, with only the two southpaws. That could be a small plus for our lineup, which leans more on the lefties for production. However, a bullpen that good often cares little for lefty-righty matchups; the Hoos will just have to find a way to hit one of the better pitching staffs they've seen.
-- MSU at bat
The reason MSU isn't hosting a super of their own is probably their lineup, which is good but not great. It's very low on power hitting, with only two players hitting more than two homers this season. One is 1B Wes Rea with six; the other is MSU's version of a superman hitter in outfielder Hunter Renfroe. Renfroe's 15 homers and 58 RBI help him to an OPS over 1.000 and mark him as the guy that Bulldog fans get excited for every turn at the plate. (Edit: Renfroe was just taken 13th in Thursday night's opening round of the MLB draft, so yeah, he's decent.)
However, if you can make Renfroe keep the ball in front of your outfielders, you should do well. Outside of Renfroe, the Bulldogs only slug .359, which would be good for about 173rd in the country. In other words, Renfroe by himself is worth about 90 slots in the team rankings. Rea has most of the rest of the pop on this team, but I'd say outside of Renfroe the most dangerous hitter is DH Alex Detz, whose very patient approach has yielded 50 walks this season. That gives him the team's top OBP at .461.
Speaking of guys with special talents, 2B Brett Pirtle doesn't walk a lot, but he's got a knack for putting himself in front of pitches; he's been hit by 19 of them. Pirtle is one of four .300 hitters on the team - besides Detz and Renfroe, there's SS Adam Frazier in this regard. Frazier often bats leadoff, as he's the Bulldogs' second-biggest base-stealing threat. (The biggest? Renfroe again, with nine.) Detz is the #2 guy, with Renfroe batting third.
That said, this isn't a huge base-stealing team. They'll try sometimes, but it's not a major part of the game plan. They'll sacrifice some, especially with the bottom third of the lineup, knowing how much the single is part of their game. In general, it's a good lineup without any holes in it - but other than Renfroe, no mashers, either.
-- Outlook
This ought to be one of the more interesting matchups of the supers. The best bullpen in the country against one of its best-hitting teams (UVA is 7th in both SLG and OBP right now.) And UVA has a pretty darn deep pen, too, but not like this one. Both teams will try to win the matchup when UVA is at the plate and do enough to support that matchup in the other half of the inning. If UVA hits, the Hoos will win, but it wouldn't surprise if our bats fell silent, either. A Game 3 would probably favor the Bulldogs slightly. Hopefully the home stadium tilts us the other way and gets the Hoos to Omaha.
Thursday, May 30, 2013
charlottesville regional preview
I just watched this again. You should too. Pretty sure it's required by law when entering the NCAA baseball tournament.
It's that time of year again. This is this blog's fifth season and in only one of those years has UVA failed to host a regional (and that happened to be the program's first-ever trip to Omaha) so we are growing accustomed to success around here. Also fourth straight year hosting. And UVA will be heavily favored this weekend to advance, possibly in the minimum three games, and host a super-regional against whichever team finds their way out of the Starkville regional.
None of that actually helps win games, though. So it's time to find out what UVA is up against this year.
UNC-Wilmington Seahawks
Conference: CAA
Record: 37-21 (18-8)
RPI: #29
Lineup:
C: Drew Farber (.246-3-38) (R)
1B: Matt Keeler (.297-2-15) (L)
2B: Michael Bass (.387-4-34) (R)
SS: Terence Connelly (.286-1-24) (L)
3B: Ryan LaGrange (.372-5-37) (R)
LF: Luke Dunlap (.338-6-44) (R)
CF: Andy Austin (.200-0-6) (L)
RF: Tyler Molinaro (.249-11-33) (L)
DH: Corey Dick (.277-8-37) (L)
Lineup notes:
-- Keeler is a midseason replacement for UNCW's all-time hits leader, Hunter Ridge, who must have done something pretty bad because he was suspended for the duration of the season in April.
-- The Seahawks typically inserted Josh Abshire (.235-0-4) at catcher for one game each weekend; whether that happens during the tourney is anyone's guess. Both Abshire and Farber bat right-handed so it's clearly a rest thing, not a platoon.
-- There's been no continuity at center field. Austin has started most of the recent games; the equally light-hitting Christian Wolfe (.210-2-11) has been another option. In the final regular season game, the Seahawks tried Luis Renvill (.272-1-13) out there to try and get his bat into the lineup. P.S. no, I didn't forget an E at the end of his name.
Starting rotation:
LHP Mat Batts (9-3, 3.07, 110 Ks)
RHP Jordan Ramsey (6-6, 2.36, 82 Ks)
LHP Christian MacDonald (4-1, 4.02, 26 Ks)
RHP Blaze Tart (3-4, 4.40, 30 Ks)
Bullpen:
LHP Kelly Secrest (3-1, 3.73, 52 Ks)
RHP Ricky Holden (5-1, 4.62, 29 Ks)
RHP Justin Livengood (1-2, 1.93, 47 Ks)
RHP Jack Lane (2-2, 5.91, 16 Ks)
RHP Evan Phillips (2-0, 4.26, 13 Ks)
Wilmington is the region's #2 seed, and all due respect to the CAA's best team (until tournament time rolled around) but just about any UVA fan would take that over, say, Oklahoma, or some other team from a major conference. Scuttlebutt has it that UNCW will start ace lefty and CAA pitcher of the year Mat Batts against Elon in the first game, so if this is UVA's Saturday opponent, UVA will likely face righty Jordan Ramsey. Ramsey is a harder thrower but with less polish than Batts, rather less durable (Batts tossed six complete games this year), and has been battling a blister.
Later games against UNCW would involve some much more hittable pitchers. Christian MacDonald pitches to a lot of contact with a very low strikeout total. Weekday starter Blaze Tart is a guy with an injury history - this is his first season back from elbow trouble that cost him half of 2011 and all of 2012. Opposing hitters are hitting .325 off of him; this has partly to do with the fact that UNCW's midweek opponent is often an NC State or a UNC, and Tart has been getting beaten up by ACC opponents.
The bullpen is largely bereft of left-handers, except for closer Kelly Secrest. It's probably not a worrisome one. Justin Livengood's ERA looks shiny, but he's prone to wildness (24 walks in 32.2 innings as well as five hit batsmen.) In fact, most of the regular relievers have just as many hit batsmen as the starters do, in one-third the innings. Freshman Evan Phillips actually has a K/BB ratio below one. (13 Ks, 20 walks.) I'm not concerned about the pen.
The Seahawks generally have made their living with their bats. They have some power up and down the lineup, led by Tyler Molinaro's 11 home runs. Their slugging percentage leader is also their stolen base leader - that would be 2nd baseman Michael Bass, who legs a lot of singles into doubles, and is dangerous even if he stays at first, as he's been successful on 24 of 25 steal attempts. Other than Bass, the Seahawks don't steal much, but they do like the sac bunt. Luis Renvill has the most with 13, and Terence Connelly and Ryan LaGrange each have eight.
LaGrange and Bass are the top hitters for average; those two plus Luke Dunlap comprise the .300 club on this team, and none are just slap hitters. All have some pop. UNC-Wilmington expects production from every spot in the lineup, although it gets a little light at the very tail end of it.
Overall, UVA should have a healthy respect for the bats here, but there's a significant dropoff in pitching quality after the first two games. UNC-W could be dangerous on Saturday, but we won't have to face Mat Batts (most likely) and sooner or later our bats will get a shot at the Seahawk bullpen and the back of their rotation, a matchup which could produce fireworks.
Elon Phoenix
Conference: Southern
Record: 32-28 (18-11)
RPI: #71
Lineup:
C: Alex Swim (.267-1-44) (L)
1B: Ryan Kinsella (.321-20-75) (L)
2B: Wil Leathers (.249-2-20) (R)
SS: Antonio Alvarez (.296-4-39) (S)
3B: Danny Lynch (.250-2-15) (L)
LF: Casey Jones (.268-0-16) (L)
CF: Sebastian Gomez (.332-1-3) (R)
RF: Quinn Bower (.263-1-22) (R)
DH: Chris King (.314-3-22) (L)
Lineup notes:
-- Elon's lineup is one of the more fluid ones you're likely to see. Things are subject to change, a lot, and so much so that it's not worth going into every possible lineup combo. This one is a basic, nominal lineup that'll probably have at least one change in it somewhere.
-- Most notably, third base is a place for getting a lot of guys some at-bats. Joey Tomko (.280-1-16) and Chris Bresnahan (.270-0-11) are other possibilities to fill that slot. Both are right-handed hitters, so if we play Elon and toss a lefty, they're more likely to play than the left-handed Lynch.
-- Bresnahan, in fact, is a jack-of-all-trades infielder who's started everywhere but 1B and seen time at all four spots.
-- Outfield is also prone to shuffling. Blaine Bower (Quinn's twin brother, hitting .262-1-12) may also start. Gomez is rarely pulled from the lineup but at times plays elsewhere than center. Chris Schaedel (.302-0-3) has only nine starts but lots of pinch-hit appearances.
-- And yes, there are lot of different guys who DH, as well. Not even going to go into the whole list.
Starting rotation:
RHP Kyle Webb (7-3, 3.66, 92 Ks)
LHP Dylan Clark (6-4, 3.86, 54 Ks)
LHP Spencer Medick (7-6, 5.09, 71 Ks)
Bullpen:
LHP Andrew MacDonald (4-1, 2.33, 32 Ks)
RHP Jacob Baker (0-2, 7.68, 40 Ks)
RHP Nate Young (2-1, 5.03, 33 Ks)
LHP Tyler Manez (1-3, 6.90, 27 Ks)
LHP Ryan Pennell (2-2, 5.33, 21 Ks)
RHP John Antonelli (1-0, 7.66, 17 Ks)
Yeah, Elon's pitching staff is as unpredictable as their lineup. The more or less undisputed fact is that Kyle Webb is the ace, and it looks like he'll go on Friday against UNC-Wilmington. He's probably the only pitcher Elon has that's capable of shutting down the Seahawk lineup enough to get past them and into the winner's bracket game on Saturday.
After that, I throw up my hands. Who Elon might start against us on Saturday, if we do play them, I don't feel like venturing a guess. Dylan Clark is a possibility, except that he didn't start at all in the many-gamed SoCon tournament. Elon instead used a few guys (MacDonald, Young) that had barely started a game all season, if at all. And it's not like they were saving anyone. The SoCon is a one-bid league this year and it was win or go home.
This all said, Elon is one of the very lowest-ranked regional 3 seeds in the whole tourney. There's a pretty big gap between the Fighting Christians and the UNC-Wilmington Seahawks, and our chances of not playing them at all look pretty good. Most of the lineup pieces are pretty interchangeable. Not too many scary pieces. I'd be remiss, of course, in not mentioning 1B Ryan Kinsella (who unfortunately is not from Iowa.) Kinsella donked 20 homers this year, and with only one multi-homer game as well. Very, very tough hitter no matter how you slice it, and the pride of the Elon lineup. Beyond that, there are some steal threats - Quinn Bower was 20-for-21, and Alex Swim, 15-for-18, and Elon likes to move baserunners that way. You can expect at least a couple steal attempts. And Sebastian Gomez hit .332 this season.
Otherwise, it's a team on the light-hitting side for a tourney participant. And Webb is a solid pitcher, but unless Elon subscribes to my save-your-ace-for-game-2 theory (and they probably won't get past Wilmington's lineup if they do) we'll never have to worry about him. If we do play Elon, it's probably in the loser's bracket; if all goes as planned in the regional, we won't see them.
Army Black Knights
Conference: Patriot League
Record: 29-21 (11-9)
RPI: #204
Lineup:
C: Andrew Johnson (.266-0-13)
1B: Patrick Mescher (.345-2-40)
2B: Grant Van Orden (.235-0-12)
SS: Alex Jensen (.297-3-38)
3B: Harold Earls (.253-0-20)
LF: Michael Sands (.221-1-13)
CF: Jacob Page (.314-3-35)
RF: Jon Crucitti (.271-0-6)
DH: Mark McCants (.315-0-23)
Lineup notes:
-- The one real platoon is at second base, where Grant Van Orden splits time with Justin Reece (.236-0-10). Army doesn't provide batting/throwing arm information, so there's no obvious answer as to whether it's a lefty-righty thing, but just based on an image search to see if I could find pictures of them at bat, they're both righties. Probably. Don't do the image search yourself, though, at least not on Yahoo, it's a bad idea.
-- The lineup is otherwise pretty stable, with the only other exception being that Sands and Crucitti have, for whatever reason, occasionally switched places.
Starting rotation:
RHP Chris Rowley (9-3, 2.68, 72 Ks)
RHP Alex Robinett (7-3, 2.96, 61 Ks)
LHP Brook Davidson (2-3, 4.75, 25 Ks)
Bullpen:
RHP Gunnar Carroll (3-4, 5.66, 22 Ks)
RHP Erik Washburn (1-0, 3.38, 13 Ks)
RHP Julian Larimer (2-2, 3.91, 10 Ks)
LHP Patrick Gardner (2-1, 6.85, 11 Ks)
Might be interesting to see what Army does if they survive long enough to play more than three games. The Patriot League plays four weekend games, not three, and Army's top three was pretty clearly set, but the fourth was rotated among a whole host of different players.
The odds of that are pretty slim, though. It's clear who their top two pitchers are, and UVA will face Chris Rowley, a familiar foe, as Rowley was also the starting pitcher in last year's opening contest as well. If we don't face Rowley, it'll be Alex Robinett, but it'll be Rowley so whatever. Rowley can be a tough cookie and no doubt has learned a lot from his last outing at Davenport, in which he walked five and plunked four in six innings.
Rowley's a righthander, and in fact UVA's pretty unlikely to face any lefties during this game; good news since a lot of our top hitters are left-handed. In fact, Army pitching will be mostly a parade of righties, which bodes ill for their chances in the regional, particularly if they have to face Elon and the left-handed Kinsella.
As for the Army lineup, it's pretty meh. There are some guys who can hit for average decently, led by Patrick Mescher, Jacob Page, and Mark McCants, but there's very, very little power here. Army only popped nine home runs all season; every lineup in the regional features at least one player who hit that many or more on his own. They'll try to manufacture runs, and you can bet that when they're playing us they'll be extremely aggressive in doing so. They're not shy about stealing or bunting regardless of who's trying to execute the play.
So Army plays in one of the junkiest baseball conferences in the country, didn't beat anyone south of the Mason-Dixon line except Navy (and Navy took 3 of 4 in their weekend series), and has a lineup even less scary than Elon's. But they make me a little nervous all the same, because of Rowley. They might make Elon a little nervous, too, if those teams meet on Saturday; Army doesn't have Ryan Kinsella, but they might have a better starting pitcher than what Elon throws. So if they fall into the loser's bracket, they could play spoiler. After that, though, it's tee time. Their staff is too highly dependent on Rowley and Robinett.
********************************************
If a team other than UVA wants to advance out of this regional, they'll have to strike early. The disaster scenario would be Rowley outpitching Brandon Waddell on Friday, and then Elon upsetting UNC-Wilmington in the later game; after that, UNC-W's solid lineup and Jordan Ramsey surprise the Hoos in the loser's bracket. That's the off-ramp for UVA. The deeper this goes, though, the more UVA likes it. We have, with no exaggeration implied here, three times the pitching depth of any of the challengers. They all go about two starters deep and none have more than one or two really good, dependable bullpen arms. We have four starters that we like and how many quality arms in the pen? Four, five? Depends on your definition, but it's more than twice what anyone else gots. If UVA is still alive after Saturday - and dammit we better be because that would be a colossal collapse if not - then you can book the trip to the supers.
It's that time of year again. This is this blog's fifth season and in only one of those years has UVA failed to host a regional (and that happened to be the program's first-ever trip to Omaha) so we are growing accustomed to success around here. Also fourth straight year hosting. And UVA will be heavily favored this weekend to advance, possibly in the minimum three games, and host a super-regional against whichever team finds their way out of the Starkville regional.
None of that actually helps win games, though. So it's time to find out what UVA is up against this year.
UNC-Wilmington Seahawks
Record: 37-21 (18-8)
RPI: #29
Lineup:
C: Drew Farber (.246-3-38) (R)
1B: Matt Keeler (.297-2-15) (L)
2B: Michael Bass (.387-4-34) (R)
SS: Terence Connelly (.286-1-24) (L)
3B: Ryan LaGrange (.372-5-37) (R)
LF: Luke Dunlap (.338-6-44) (R)
CF: Andy Austin (.200-0-6) (L)
RF: Tyler Molinaro (.249-11-33) (L)
DH: Corey Dick (.277-8-37) (L)
Lineup notes:
-- Keeler is a midseason replacement for UNCW's all-time hits leader, Hunter Ridge, who must have done something pretty bad because he was suspended for the duration of the season in April.
-- The Seahawks typically inserted Josh Abshire (.235-0-4) at catcher for one game each weekend; whether that happens during the tourney is anyone's guess. Both Abshire and Farber bat right-handed so it's clearly a rest thing, not a platoon.
-- There's been no continuity at center field. Austin has started most of the recent games; the equally light-hitting Christian Wolfe (.210-2-11) has been another option. In the final regular season game, the Seahawks tried Luis Renvill (.272-1-13) out there to try and get his bat into the lineup. P.S. no, I didn't forget an E at the end of his name.
Starting rotation:
LHP Mat Batts (9-3, 3.07, 110 Ks)
RHP Jordan Ramsey (6-6, 2.36, 82 Ks)
LHP Christian MacDonald (4-1, 4.02, 26 Ks)
RHP Blaze Tart (3-4, 4.40, 30 Ks)
Bullpen:
LHP Kelly Secrest (3-1, 3.73, 52 Ks)
RHP Ricky Holden (5-1, 4.62, 29 Ks)
RHP Justin Livengood (1-2, 1.93, 47 Ks)
RHP Jack Lane (2-2, 5.91, 16 Ks)
RHP Evan Phillips (2-0, 4.26, 13 Ks)
Wilmington is the region's #2 seed, and all due respect to the CAA's best team (until tournament time rolled around) but just about any UVA fan would take that over, say, Oklahoma, or some other team from a major conference. Scuttlebutt has it that UNCW will start ace lefty and CAA pitcher of the year Mat Batts against Elon in the first game, so if this is UVA's Saturday opponent, UVA will likely face righty Jordan Ramsey. Ramsey is a harder thrower but with less polish than Batts, rather less durable (Batts tossed six complete games this year), and has been battling a blister.
Later games against UNCW would involve some much more hittable pitchers. Christian MacDonald pitches to a lot of contact with a very low strikeout total. Weekday starter Blaze Tart is a guy with an injury history - this is his first season back from elbow trouble that cost him half of 2011 and all of 2012. Opposing hitters are hitting .325 off of him; this has partly to do with the fact that UNCW's midweek opponent is often an NC State or a UNC, and Tart has been getting beaten up by ACC opponents.
The bullpen is largely bereft of left-handers, except for closer Kelly Secrest. It's probably not a worrisome one. Justin Livengood's ERA looks shiny, but he's prone to wildness (24 walks in 32.2 innings as well as five hit batsmen.) In fact, most of the regular relievers have just as many hit batsmen as the starters do, in one-third the innings. Freshman Evan Phillips actually has a K/BB ratio below one. (13 Ks, 20 walks.) I'm not concerned about the pen.
The Seahawks generally have made their living with their bats. They have some power up and down the lineup, led by Tyler Molinaro's 11 home runs. Their slugging percentage leader is also their stolen base leader - that would be 2nd baseman Michael Bass, who legs a lot of singles into doubles, and is dangerous even if he stays at first, as he's been successful on 24 of 25 steal attempts. Other than Bass, the Seahawks don't steal much, but they do like the sac bunt. Luis Renvill has the most with 13, and Terence Connelly and Ryan LaGrange each have eight.
LaGrange and Bass are the top hitters for average; those two plus Luke Dunlap comprise the .300 club on this team, and none are just slap hitters. All have some pop. UNC-Wilmington expects production from every spot in the lineup, although it gets a little light at the very tail end of it.
Overall, UVA should have a healthy respect for the bats here, but there's a significant dropoff in pitching quality after the first two games. UNC-W could be dangerous on Saturday, but we won't have to face Mat Batts (most likely) and sooner or later our bats will get a shot at the Seahawk bullpen and the back of their rotation, a matchup which could produce fireworks.
Elon Phoenix
Record: 32-28 (18-11)
RPI: #71
Lineup:
C: Alex Swim (.267-1-44) (L)
1B: Ryan Kinsella (.321-20-75) (L)
2B: Wil Leathers (.249-2-20) (R)
SS: Antonio Alvarez (.296-4-39) (S)
3B: Danny Lynch (.250-2-15) (L)
LF: Casey Jones (.268-0-16) (L)
CF: Sebastian Gomez (.332-1-3) (R)
RF: Quinn Bower (.263-1-22) (R)
DH: Chris King (.314-3-22) (L)
Lineup notes:
-- Elon's lineup is one of the more fluid ones you're likely to see. Things are subject to change, a lot, and so much so that it's not worth going into every possible lineup combo. This one is a basic, nominal lineup that'll probably have at least one change in it somewhere.
-- Most notably, third base is a place for getting a lot of guys some at-bats. Joey Tomko (.280-1-16) and Chris Bresnahan (.270-0-11) are other possibilities to fill that slot. Both are right-handed hitters, so if we play Elon and toss a lefty, they're more likely to play than the left-handed Lynch.
-- Bresnahan, in fact, is a jack-of-all-trades infielder who's started everywhere but 1B and seen time at all four spots.
-- Outfield is also prone to shuffling. Blaine Bower (Quinn's twin brother, hitting .262-1-12) may also start. Gomez is rarely pulled from the lineup but at times plays elsewhere than center. Chris Schaedel (.302-0-3) has only nine starts but lots of pinch-hit appearances.
-- And yes, there are lot of different guys who DH, as well. Not even going to go into the whole list.
Starting rotation:
RHP Kyle Webb (7-3, 3.66, 92 Ks)
LHP Dylan Clark (6-4, 3.86, 54 Ks)
LHP Spencer Medick (7-6, 5.09, 71 Ks)
Bullpen:
LHP Andrew MacDonald (4-1, 2.33, 32 Ks)
RHP Jacob Baker (0-2, 7.68, 40 Ks)
RHP Nate Young (2-1, 5.03, 33 Ks)
LHP Tyler Manez (1-3, 6.90, 27 Ks)
LHP Ryan Pennell (2-2, 5.33, 21 Ks)
RHP John Antonelli (1-0, 7.66, 17 Ks)
Yeah, Elon's pitching staff is as unpredictable as their lineup. The more or less undisputed fact is that Kyle Webb is the ace, and it looks like he'll go on Friday against UNC-Wilmington. He's probably the only pitcher Elon has that's capable of shutting down the Seahawk lineup enough to get past them and into the winner's bracket game on Saturday.
After that, I throw up my hands. Who Elon might start against us on Saturday, if we do play them, I don't feel like venturing a guess. Dylan Clark is a possibility, except that he didn't start at all in the many-gamed SoCon tournament. Elon instead used a few guys (MacDonald, Young) that had barely started a game all season, if at all. And it's not like they were saving anyone. The SoCon is a one-bid league this year and it was win or go home.
This all said, Elon is one of the very lowest-ranked regional 3 seeds in the whole tourney. There's a pretty big gap between the Fighting Christians and the UNC-Wilmington Seahawks, and our chances of not playing them at all look pretty good. Most of the lineup pieces are pretty interchangeable. Not too many scary pieces. I'd be remiss, of course, in not mentioning 1B Ryan Kinsella (who unfortunately is not from Iowa.) Kinsella donked 20 homers this year, and with only one multi-homer game as well. Very, very tough hitter no matter how you slice it, and the pride of the Elon lineup. Beyond that, there are some steal threats - Quinn Bower was 20-for-21, and Alex Swim, 15-for-18, and Elon likes to move baserunners that way. You can expect at least a couple steal attempts. And Sebastian Gomez hit .332 this season.
Otherwise, it's a team on the light-hitting side for a tourney participant. And Webb is a solid pitcher, but unless Elon subscribes to my save-your-ace-for-game-2 theory (and they probably won't get past Wilmington's lineup if they do) we'll never have to worry about him. If we do play Elon, it's probably in the loser's bracket; if all goes as planned in the regional, we won't see them.
Army Black Knights
Record: 29-21 (11-9)
RPI: #204
Lineup:
C: Andrew Johnson (.266-0-13)
1B: Patrick Mescher (.345-2-40)
2B: Grant Van Orden (.235-0-12)
SS: Alex Jensen (.297-3-38)
3B: Harold Earls (.253-0-20)
LF: Michael Sands (.221-1-13)
CF: Jacob Page (.314-3-35)
RF: Jon Crucitti (.271-0-6)
DH: Mark McCants (.315-0-23)
Lineup notes:
-- The one real platoon is at second base, where Grant Van Orden splits time with Justin Reece (.236-0-10). Army doesn't provide batting/throwing arm information, so there's no obvious answer as to whether it's a lefty-righty thing, but just based on an image search to see if I could find pictures of them at bat, they're both righties. Probably. Don't do the image search yourself, though, at least not on Yahoo, it's a bad idea.
-- The lineup is otherwise pretty stable, with the only other exception being that Sands and Crucitti have, for whatever reason, occasionally switched places.
Starting rotation:
RHP Chris Rowley (9-3, 2.68, 72 Ks)
RHP Alex Robinett (7-3, 2.96, 61 Ks)
LHP Brook Davidson (2-3, 4.75, 25 Ks)
Bullpen:
RHP Gunnar Carroll (3-4, 5.66, 22 Ks)
RHP Erik Washburn (1-0, 3.38, 13 Ks)
RHP Julian Larimer (2-2, 3.91, 10 Ks)
LHP Patrick Gardner (2-1, 6.85, 11 Ks)
Might be interesting to see what Army does if they survive long enough to play more than three games. The Patriot League plays four weekend games, not three, and Army's top three was pretty clearly set, but the fourth was rotated among a whole host of different players.
The odds of that are pretty slim, though. It's clear who their top two pitchers are, and UVA will face Chris Rowley, a familiar foe, as Rowley was also the starting pitcher in last year's opening contest as well. If we don't face Rowley, it'll be Alex Robinett, but it'll be Rowley so whatever. Rowley can be a tough cookie and no doubt has learned a lot from his last outing at Davenport, in which he walked five and plunked four in six innings.
Rowley's a righthander, and in fact UVA's pretty unlikely to face any lefties during this game; good news since a lot of our top hitters are left-handed. In fact, Army pitching will be mostly a parade of righties, which bodes ill for their chances in the regional, particularly if they have to face Elon and the left-handed Kinsella.
As for the Army lineup, it's pretty meh. There are some guys who can hit for average decently, led by Patrick Mescher, Jacob Page, and Mark McCants, but there's very, very little power here. Army only popped nine home runs all season; every lineup in the regional features at least one player who hit that many or more on his own. They'll try to manufacture runs, and you can bet that when they're playing us they'll be extremely aggressive in doing so. They're not shy about stealing or bunting regardless of who's trying to execute the play.
So Army plays in one of the junkiest baseball conferences in the country, didn't beat anyone south of the Mason-Dixon line except Navy (and Navy took 3 of 4 in their weekend series), and has a lineup even less scary than Elon's. But they make me a little nervous all the same, because of Rowley. They might make Elon a little nervous, too, if those teams meet on Saturday; Army doesn't have Ryan Kinsella, but they might have a better starting pitcher than what Elon throws. So if they fall into the loser's bracket, they could play spoiler. After that, though, it's tee time. Their staff is too highly dependent on Rowley and Robinett.
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If a team other than UVA wants to advance out of this regional, they'll have to strike early. The disaster scenario would be Rowley outpitching Brandon Waddell on Friday, and then Elon upsetting UNC-Wilmington in the later game; after that, UNC-W's solid lineup and Jordan Ramsey surprise the Hoos in the loser's bracket. That's the off-ramp for UVA. The deeper this goes, though, the more UVA likes it. We have, with no exaggeration implied here, three times the pitching depth of any of the challengers. They all go about two starters deep and none have more than one or two really good, dependable bullpen arms. We have four starters that we like and how many quality arms in the pen? Four, five? Depends on your definition, but it's more than twice what anyone else gots. If UVA is still alive after Saturday - and dammit we better be because that would be a colossal collapse if not - then you can book the trip to the supers.
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
weekend review and rooting guide
Obviously there's no sugarcoating the fact that Sunday's regular season finale against Maryland was ugly with a capital "ugly." No surprise there. What might surprise you is if I said it wasn't just the first half. The whole damn game was ugly. The truth is that I don't think the second half was any prettier than the first.
The main difference is that Maryland started playing a lot worse. Or more truthfully, that they played more like Maryland is used to playing. The clock struck halftime and Nick Faust turned into a pumpkin. Justin Anderson's putback slam was a potential spark according to the announcers, and that might've been a turning point of sorts, but then, I don't think there was a particular turning point. KenPom's win probability chart for the game shows a steadyish slope in Maryland's favor for pretty much the whole first half; the second half probabilities swerve wildly back and forth and every single play is designated "high leverage." And eventually it's swerved its way to the good guys. That's a pretty accurate portrayal of how it felt to watch. Both teams just played ugly basketball for 20 minutes and UVA played less ugly than Maryland and it was all good in the end.
That speaks to the talent difference. Joe Harris had a totally pathetic shooting night (4-for-18) but the complementary players picked him up (Akil Mitchell and Mike Tobey in particular.) Our complements are better than their complements, and their star (Alex Len, I suppose, but it's hard to say Maryland really has had a lead dog this season) played even worse than Harris, because Harris really gets basketball and Len has a way to go.
(Case in point: the final play of regulation, in which Len not only allowed Mike Tobey to set up shop right next to the hoop, but then foolishly - and halfheartedly - went for the steal and found himself in no position to do anything at all.... especially defend the bucket. Tie game achieved.)
That gives UVA an ACC tournament bye for the second year in a row. Since ACC expansion to 12 teams, this is the 3rd bye that UVA has managed, and each and every time, NC State has been the team that played through to UVA's bracket. And won, I might add. I'm not so sure I wasn't pulling for NC State to beat Florida State on Saturday so that we might flip the script on them. There's probably something to be said for the momentum gained from beating the crappiest team in the conference and the rhythm from playing while your future opponent sits.
I'd've liked to have the excellent chance as well to add a neutral-site win to UVA's RPI resume. Certainly, winning on Friday would do wonders for UVA's tourney chances; I would go so far as to say that it would lock down a bid. More than for NCAA reasons, though, I just want that quarterfinal win for its own sake. I've yet to even see one as a UVA fan.
(By the way, David Teel has the obvious perspective on what Tony Bennett has achieved this year. Essentially this was a season where UVA was supposed to finish 7th, instead finished 4th, and did it with Malcolm Brogdon on ice, Jontel Evans out nine games with a broken foot, Darion Atkins ineffective for most of the ACC season with shin splints, and Mike Tobey parked for a couple weeks with mono. We had the usual boatload of health problems and hardly noticed.)
Oh, and congratulations are in order for Harris and Mitchell for making the ACC's 1st and 3rd teams respectively, and Jontel Evans for making the all-defense team. The latter is a little bit of a reputation pick, kind of the way Pudge Rodriguez kept winning Gold Gloves even as a mid-30-year-old catcher, but it's not like Evans is undeserving either. And the selections for Harris and Mitchell are spot on and exactly what they deserved. No, I don't think I'd have put Mitchell on the 2nd team. 3rd is just right; the competition is pretty good this year.
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As a bubble team, even with one foot in the tournament field, it's probably worth a look at what the rest of the bubble is up to this week. Here's a rooting guide for the conference tournaments you want to look at:
Atlantic 10: Temple did itself a big favor by beating VCU. Bad for us. They have the A-10's 3rd seed and draw the winner of UMass-George Washington on Friday. Those teams are solid NIT material and aren't in the NCAA conversation, so you'll be pulling for whichever one to soften up Temple's resume a little. La Salle is in a dicier spot: as the 4 seed, they drew the winner of Butler-Dayton, so, they drew Butler. Excellent as long as Butler takes care of business. Butler's tourney resume is ironclad, with a whole assortment of wins over really good nonconference teams (Indiana, UNC, Gonzaga) so they can't play their way out no matter what. But they can take care of La Salle for us.
Big 12: UVA is literally Lunardi's last at-large in. Baylor is the first out. They have the Big 12's 6 seed and drew Oklahoma State in the first round. You are a big Cowboys fan; a Baylor win might leapfrog them past us even if we do beat NC State. Iowa State is sort of kind of bubbly, so it wouldn't hurt if they lost to Oklahoma, either. But the biggie is Baylor. Also keep in mind that Baylor was one of the teams that Adidas outfitted with their Zubaz getup, so there's that too.
Big Ten: Iowa is kind of a fringe bubble team hanging on at the bottom. If they go on a rampage - and the Big Ten has been anything-goes this year in a good way - they could start to look interesting to the committee. After their opening-round game against Northwestern, they would face Michigan State. I'm not rooting for Sparty in any event, but you might want to.
C-USA: This conference kind of sucks, which is good news. Southern Miss is the only bubble team, and really at this point they're less of a bubble risk than a potential bid thief. They're the #2 seed in the C-USA tourney, and nothing they do there short of beating Memphis would impress the committee enough to extend a bid. And if they beat Memphis they're an autobid anyway.
Mountain West: A surprisingly tough conference this year. Boise State has a golden opportunity, playing in the 4/5 game against San Diego State. SDSU is both a very likely tourney team and kind of vulnerable in this game. Boise is who Lunardi has us playing in the NCAA play-in right now, putting them at basically the same level as us. You definitely want San Diego State to pull this one out and soften up Boise's resume a touch.
Pac-12: Practically not worth mentioning, but Arizona State is in the same position as Iowa where if they go on a rampage they could attract some of the committee's attention.
SEC: Also known as Bubbleville. The SEC has one sure thing (Florida) and a whole host of teams that'll watch the selection show with a few nerves. No fewer than four bubble teams populate the SEC tourney. As 2 and 3 seeds, respectively, Kentucky and Ole Miss are on a semifinals collision course. As 4 and 5 seeds, Alabama and Tennessee have the same fate, only in the quarterfinals. As with CUSA, the committee will not be impressed by anything these teams do prior to those games, with one exception: Missouri is a solidly-in team with a low seed (6) and in position to upend Mississippi before that Kentucky game ever happens. Your idea result (barring an upset like Arkansas over Kentucky) is for Missouri to blow through that side of the bracket and eliminate both UK and the Rebels. Barring that, at least one team will take out the other; you probably want it to be Kentucky that beats Ole Miss since Ole Miss is lurking from below while Kentucky is slightly above. That said, if you want to root for Kentucky to earn a nice NIT #1 seed, I won't blame you one bit. As for Alabama/Tennessee, it's another clear eliminator, but with a rooting interest: you actually kind of want the Vols to look like a tournament team, just to make that December win look a little shinier. Plus, since we've already played Tennessee, the committee may look to avoid that rematch, which in turn may entice them to give UVA a slightly more favorable position in the S-curve.
In sum, your rooting guide looks like this:
UMass-GWash over Temple
Butler over La Salle
Oklahoma State over Baylor
Oklahoma over Iowa State
Northwestern or Michigan State over Iowa
anyone to knock off Southern Miss
San Diego State over Boise State
Stanford or UCLA over Arizona State
Missouri over Ole Miss and Kentucky
Kentucky over Ole Miss if comes to that
Tennessee over Alabama
Left unsaid is that obviously we want to beat NC State (which could make all of this moot) and to root for the favorites in the smaller conference tourneys; teams such as Akron, Louisiana Tech, and Bucknell. (None are especially likely to steal a bid, but you don't want to take chances.)
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Since this basically just became a basketball post, I'll save baseball and lacrosse for tomorrow. But there was one development last week that bears mention: the announcement that the Catholic 7 split from the old Big East to become the new Big East is official. What's so big about that? Because now Notre Dame has to figure out what to do, and quickly. I'd say the chances are pretty good - or very good - that they'll be in the ACC as soon as this summer. The Catholic 7 basically smoked the Big East at the negotiating table - they even got to keep their tournament units (the method used to decide how the money from the NCAA tourney gets split up) and basically only had to leave behind the departure fees the conference has been collecting. Which is admittedly a pretty copious figure. Cincy, USF, and UConn will get a nice windfall. But if it's true that the old Big East only wants $2.5 million from Notre Dame in order to leave this summer as well, then that's as good as done. Notre Dame can find that money in their couch cushions.
EDIT: right, and as I'm typing that, this happens. So yes. Say hi to the Irish, just in time for St. Paddy's Day.
The main difference is that Maryland started playing a lot worse. Or more truthfully, that they played more like Maryland is used to playing. The clock struck halftime and Nick Faust turned into a pumpkin. Justin Anderson's putback slam was a potential spark according to the announcers, and that might've been a turning point of sorts, but then, I don't think there was a particular turning point. KenPom's win probability chart for the game shows a steadyish slope in Maryland's favor for pretty much the whole first half; the second half probabilities swerve wildly back and forth and every single play is designated "high leverage." And eventually it's swerved its way to the good guys. That's a pretty accurate portrayal of how it felt to watch. Both teams just played ugly basketball for 20 minutes and UVA played less ugly than Maryland and it was all good in the end.
That speaks to the talent difference. Joe Harris had a totally pathetic shooting night (4-for-18) but the complementary players picked him up (Akil Mitchell and Mike Tobey in particular.) Our complements are better than their complements, and their star (Alex Len, I suppose, but it's hard to say Maryland really has had a lead dog this season) played even worse than Harris, because Harris really gets basketball and Len has a way to go.
(Case in point: the final play of regulation, in which Len not only allowed Mike Tobey to set up shop right next to the hoop, but then foolishly - and halfheartedly - went for the steal and found himself in no position to do anything at all.... especially defend the bucket. Tie game achieved.)
That gives UVA an ACC tournament bye for the second year in a row. Since ACC expansion to 12 teams, this is the 3rd bye that UVA has managed, and each and every time, NC State has been the team that played through to UVA's bracket. And won, I might add. I'm not so sure I wasn't pulling for NC State to beat Florida State on Saturday so that we might flip the script on them. There's probably something to be said for the momentum gained from beating the crappiest team in the conference and the rhythm from playing while your future opponent sits.
I'd've liked to have the excellent chance as well to add a neutral-site win to UVA's RPI resume. Certainly, winning on Friday would do wonders for UVA's tourney chances; I would go so far as to say that it would lock down a bid. More than for NCAA reasons, though, I just want that quarterfinal win for its own sake. I've yet to even see one as a UVA fan.
(By the way, David Teel has the obvious perspective on what Tony Bennett has achieved this year. Essentially this was a season where UVA was supposed to finish 7th, instead finished 4th, and did it with Malcolm Brogdon on ice, Jontel Evans out nine games with a broken foot, Darion Atkins ineffective for most of the ACC season with shin splints, and Mike Tobey parked for a couple weeks with mono. We had the usual boatload of health problems and hardly noticed.)
Oh, and congratulations are in order for Harris and Mitchell for making the ACC's 1st and 3rd teams respectively, and Jontel Evans for making the all-defense team. The latter is a little bit of a reputation pick, kind of the way Pudge Rodriguez kept winning Gold Gloves even as a mid-30-year-old catcher, but it's not like Evans is undeserving either. And the selections for Harris and Mitchell are spot on and exactly what they deserved. No, I don't think I'd have put Mitchell on the 2nd team. 3rd is just right; the competition is pretty good this year.
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As a bubble team, even with one foot in the tournament field, it's probably worth a look at what the rest of the bubble is up to this week. Here's a rooting guide for the conference tournaments you want to look at:
Atlantic 10: Temple did itself a big favor by beating VCU. Bad for us. They have the A-10's 3rd seed and draw the winner of UMass-George Washington on Friday. Those teams are solid NIT material and aren't in the NCAA conversation, so you'll be pulling for whichever one to soften up Temple's resume a little. La Salle is in a dicier spot: as the 4 seed, they drew the winner of Butler-Dayton, so, they drew Butler. Excellent as long as Butler takes care of business. Butler's tourney resume is ironclad, with a whole assortment of wins over really good nonconference teams (Indiana, UNC, Gonzaga) so they can't play their way out no matter what. But they can take care of La Salle for us.
Big 12: UVA is literally Lunardi's last at-large in. Baylor is the first out. They have the Big 12's 6 seed and drew Oklahoma State in the first round. You are a big Cowboys fan; a Baylor win might leapfrog them past us even if we do beat NC State. Iowa State is sort of kind of bubbly, so it wouldn't hurt if they lost to Oklahoma, either. But the biggie is Baylor. Also keep in mind that Baylor was one of the teams that Adidas outfitted with their Zubaz getup, so there's that too.
Big Ten: Iowa is kind of a fringe bubble team hanging on at the bottom. If they go on a rampage - and the Big Ten has been anything-goes this year in a good way - they could start to look interesting to the committee. After their opening-round game against Northwestern, they would face Michigan State. I'm not rooting for Sparty in any event, but you might want to.
C-USA: This conference kind of sucks, which is good news. Southern Miss is the only bubble team, and really at this point they're less of a bubble risk than a potential bid thief. They're the #2 seed in the C-USA tourney, and nothing they do there short of beating Memphis would impress the committee enough to extend a bid. And if they beat Memphis they're an autobid anyway.
Mountain West: A surprisingly tough conference this year. Boise State has a golden opportunity, playing in the 4/5 game against San Diego State. SDSU is both a very likely tourney team and kind of vulnerable in this game. Boise is who Lunardi has us playing in the NCAA play-in right now, putting them at basically the same level as us. You definitely want San Diego State to pull this one out and soften up Boise's resume a touch.
Pac-12: Practically not worth mentioning, but Arizona State is in the same position as Iowa where if they go on a rampage they could attract some of the committee's attention.
SEC: Also known as Bubbleville. The SEC has one sure thing (Florida) and a whole host of teams that'll watch the selection show with a few nerves. No fewer than four bubble teams populate the SEC tourney. As 2 and 3 seeds, respectively, Kentucky and Ole Miss are on a semifinals collision course. As 4 and 5 seeds, Alabama and Tennessee have the same fate, only in the quarterfinals. As with CUSA, the committee will not be impressed by anything these teams do prior to those games, with one exception: Missouri is a solidly-in team with a low seed (6) and in position to upend Mississippi before that Kentucky game ever happens. Your idea result (barring an upset like Arkansas over Kentucky) is for Missouri to blow through that side of the bracket and eliminate both UK and the Rebels. Barring that, at least one team will take out the other; you probably want it to be Kentucky that beats Ole Miss since Ole Miss is lurking from below while Kentucky is slightly above. That said, if you want to root for Kentucky to earn a nice NIT #1 seed, I won't blame you one bit. As for Alabama/Tennessee, it's another clear eliminator, but with a rooting interest: you actually kind of want the Vols to look like a tournament team, just to make that December win look a little shinier. Plus, since we've already played Tennessee, the committee may look to avoid that rematch, which in turn may entice them to give UVA a slightly more favorable position in the S-curve.
In sum, your rooting guide looks like this:
UMass-GWash over Temple
Butler over La Salle
Oklahoma State over Baylor
Oklahoma over Iowa State
Northwestern or Michigan State over Iowa
anyone to knock off Southern Miss
San Diego State over Boise State
Stanford or UCLA over Arizona State
Missouri over Ole Miss and Kentucky
Kentucky over Ole Miss if comes to that
Tennessee over Alabama
Left unsaid is that obviously we want to beat NC State (which could make all of this moot) and to root for the favorites in the smaller conference tourneys; teams such as Akron, Louisiana Tech, and Bucknell. (None are especially likely to steal a bid, but you don't want to take chances.)
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Since this basically just became a basketball post, I'll save baseball and lacrosse for tomorrow. But there was one development last week that bears mention: the announcement that the Catholic 7 split from the old Big East to become the new Big East is official. What's so big about that? Because now Notre Dame has to figure out what to do, and quickly. I'd say the chances are pretty good - or very good - that they'll be in the ACC as soon as this summer. The Catholic 7 basically smoked the Big East at the negotiating table - they even got to keep their tournament units (the method used to decide how the money from the NCAA tourney gets split up) and basically only had to leave behind the departure fees the conference has been collecting. Which is admittedly a pretty copious figure. Cincy, USF, and UConn will get a nice windfall. But if it's true that the old Big East only wants $2.5 million from Notre Dame in order to leave this summer as well, then that's as good as done. Notre Dame can find that money in their couch cushions.
EDIT: right, and as I'm typing that, this happens. So yes. Say hi to the Irish, just in time for St. Paddy's Day.
Friday, June 1, 2012
charlottesville regional preview
It's basically a known and indisputable fact that the best weekend of March Madness is the first. That's when they're playing the most basketball. The same principle applies during the baseball tournament, except it's double-elimination so even more baseball is played. I can't wait til the Ocho becomes a reality so that the whole thing can be broadcast and I can just take it all in by osmosis.
UVA will host Oklahoma (2 seed), Appalachian State (3 seed), and Army (4 seed) at Davenport Field this weekend, with UVA vs. Army getting things started at 11 AM tomorrow. (The early start time is because it's gon' rain.) So you know our opponents, but do you really know them? You will.
Oklahoma Sooners
Record: 38-22 (13-10 Big 12)
RPI: #28
Lineup:
C: Tanner Toal (.219-1-7)
1B: Evan Mistich (.269-3-32)
2B: Jack Mayfield (.286-3-26)
3B: Garrett Carey (.214-1-23)
SS: Caleb Bushyhead (.254-1-15)
LF: Erik Ross (.295-0-18)
CF: Max White (.356-2-54)
RF: Cody Reine (.268-5-27)
DH: Hunter Lockwood (.250-11-39)
Notes: Lockwood is also a catcher and has played quite a few games there, but the Sooners appear to have settled on Toal behind the plate; Toal has the superior arm. That leaves Lockwood and Matt Oberste (.311-5-16) to platoon at DH, which is not a great situation for Oklahoma because they're two of the better hitters on the team.
Pitching:
Starters:
LHP Jordan John (8-6, 2.30, 97 Ks)
LHP Dillon Overton (5-3, 3.24, 109 Ks)
RHP Jonathan Gray (8-4, 3.47, 90 Ks)
Bullpen:
LHP Steven Okert (8-7, 2.92, 71 Ks, 4 sv.)
RHP Damien Magnifico (3-1, 3.86, 33 Ks)
RHP Kindle Ladd (0-1, 4.56, 20 Ks)
We meet again. Probably. Though Oklahoma has several of the same hitters they brought with them two years ago to the Charlottesville super-regional, this lineup actually bears little resemblance to the one that kept us from reaching Omaha in 2010. Even though that was the final year for the pingbats (thus making comparisons difficult) the truth is that it's still a much weaker lineup. Oklahoma has gotten through thus far on the strength of their starting rotation.
It's a very good one. It has to be; the bullpen is wicked thin. There are only six pitchers who've thrown more than 20 innings all season, and three of them are their innings-eating starters. Jordan John will get the start for OU against App. State in the first game, which means that UVA, if we face the Sooners in game 2, will almost certainly bat against Dillon Overton. Overton is one of those guys like GT's Buck Farmer, who on any given day will either send a parade of hitters shuffling back to the dugout or allow a parade of baserunners to merry-go-round their way around the bases.
More on this later, but OU's relatively weak lineup is a possible reason for Brian O'Connor's surprising (to me) decision to burn Branden Kline in the first game. Max White is a very, very dangerous three-hole hitter, and Hunter Lockwood's 11 home runs playing in the pitchers' park that OU has - that's very impressive. Outside of that, though, it's a pedestrian lineup, and OU bats a Duke-esque .269 as a team.
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Record: 39-16 (21-9 SoCon)
RPI: #40
Lineup:
C: Jeremy Dowdy (.271-3-37)
1B: Trey Holmes (.249-6-37)
2B: Hector Crespo (.317-3-23)
3B: Noah Holmes (.229-1-18)
SS: Will Callaway (.330-4-52)
LF: Preston Troutman (.280-0-24)
CF: Tyler Zupcic (.338-2-24)
RF: Tyler Tewell (.375-6-43)
DH: Daniel Kassouf (.345-17-60)
Notes: None
Pitching:
Starters:
RHP Ryan Arrowood (10-0, 4.03, 84 Ks)
RHP Seth Grant (6-3, 3.33, 65 Ks)
LHP Rob Marcello (6-4, 5.19, 45 Ks)
Bullpen:
RHP Nathan Hyatt (1-0, 3.46, 28 Ks, 15 sv.)
RHP Jamie Nunn (5-2, 3.88, 45 Ks)
RHP Tyler Moore (3-2, 5.53, 18 Ks)
RHP David Port (2-1, 5.61, 12 Ks)
LHP Jeffrey Springs (2-0, 4.07, 18 Ks)
The top seed in the Southern Conference tournament, Appy State had a poor showing and was invited to the NCAAs as an at-large. Probably their ticket was punched way back in February, when they went to Baton Rouge and took a three-game series from LSU by holding the Tigers to just one run in the final two games.
That's the kind of thing that forbids you to take the Mountaineers lightly. Despite the supposedly weaker competition in the SoCon, I'd take their lineup over OU's any day, not least because I'd get the best hitter in the whole regional: DH Daniel Kassouf. Certainly his 17 home runs are to be taken seriously. RF Tyler Tewell is also an outstanding hitter, batting .375. In all, five of App State's starters made 1st or 2nd team all-conference.
App State also has their conference's pitcher of the year: right-hander Ryan Arrowood. Arrowood will pitch against Oklahoma in game 1, so if UVA draws the Mountaineers in the second game, the likely moundsman is righty Seth Grant. Grant has solid numbers, though probably isn't quite the pitcher that OU's Overton is; nevertheless, I'm not sure I wouldn't rather face the Sooners. When teams beat UVA it's usually not because we can't hit, it's because our pitchers get knocked around. The Mountaineers could be a worse matchup for us.
Army Black Knights
Record: 41-13 (18-2 PL)
RPI: #112
Lineup:
C: J.T. Watkins (.318-5-31)
1B: Kevin McKague (.389-5-44)
2B: Zach Price (.324-0-24)
3B: Harold Earls (.347-0-22)
SS: Alex Jensen (.259-0-23)
LF: Daniel Cortes (.274-0-23)
CF: Matthew Carter (.250-0-5)
RF: Cody Murtle (.251-4-41)
DH: Mark McCants (.241-2-28)
Notes: McKague is also used occasionally out of the bullpen.
Pitching:
Starters:
RHP Chris Rowley (11-0, 1.97, 76 Ks)
LHP Logan Lee (8-2, 3.28, 60 Ks)
LHP Nick Dignacco (7-2, 3.38, 58 Ks)
Bullpen:
RHP Gunnar Carroll (2-0, 2.45, 40 Ks, 8 sv.)
RHP Alex Robinett (3-1, 2.73, 42 Ks)
RHP Manny Fernandez (4-1, 2.22, 16 Ks)
RHP Andrew Flaherty (3-1, 3.04, 10 Ks)
Everything here comes with the caveat that the Patriot League, as a northern low-major conference, inflates statistics. That said, those are some eye-popping numbers on Army's ace, Chris Rowley, who'll throw against UVA tomorrow. (Or today, depending on when you read this.) Rowley is an efficient ground-ball pitcher; he doesn't walk many batters, and when pitching against Bucknell this year, he threw a seven-inning complete game in 78 minutes and needed only 65 pitches.
That said, all those guys hitting .259 or worse, well, they did that against Patriot League pitching, mostly. Since it's Kline who got the nod against Army, as long as the dominant version of Kline shows up, they probably won't be able to touch him. They're a light-hitting team: only 16 dingers all season, and all hit by four players. Only Kevin McKague has reached double-digit doubles (with 16) and Army as a team slugs only .365. However, they're very slick with the glove, with one exception: shortstop Alex Jensen has 21 errors.
Fun fact: The Hoos haven't played the USMA since 1913, a 9-3 loss. So it's time to get revenge for a century-old wound. Best served cold, etc. Plus we need to give Jim Reid (Mike London's DC, in case you put football out of your mind) braggin' rights: his son Matt is Army's coach.
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As mentioned, inclement weather in the forecast has moved the games up in the day, and UVA will play at 11 AM. As the host, we have the option to go first or second, and this is why we go first. We're much more likely to get our game in.
Now, as for why we're burning up our ace in the first game, against the four seed and contrary to what I consider conventional wisdom? Possible reasons:
- The possibility that OU and App State won't get their game in til Saturday; therefore, if Kline can eat up a bunch of innings, we'll have a way fresher bullpen than whoever awaits.
- Respect for Chris Rowley; BOC may feel a need to match Army's ace with our ace.
- If we jump on Army early, Kline can be pulled and then used out of the pen as needed later on. (I don't put any stock in this theory, however; it's not likely we'll "jump on" Rowley, and BOC doesn't tend to think in terms of what will happen if the absolute best-case comes to pass.)
- Anticipation that we'll face Oklahoma in game 2, against whom we may not need our ace.
Also a mystery: who starts the second game? This probably hinges upon the staff's opinion of Scott Silverstein: is he still dependable, or falling apart? If the former, then they'll go with him; if the latter, they'll try Lewicki and hope to win, which would put Silverstein in a lower-pressure situation.
Our hopes also may hinge on some injury news. Reed Gragnani may finally be ready to return, giving us some needed flexibility in the lineup. And the status of Shane Halley, who's morphed from emergency arm to the most dependable guy in the pen, and then missed several weeks, is up in the air. A deep bullpen is a must in tournament play, and Halley will be badly missed if he can't go.
Because they don't feel like they earned their money if they pick all #1 seeds, a lot of pundits are picking Oklahoma. There's some logic in that, given OU's formidable starting rotation. However, this is a regional of flawed teams, and it's also fair to say UVA is the least flawed of the four. We have a balanced lineup, and pitchers that can shut down any of these teams - if they pitch up to their potential. UVA will win this regional if that happens. If not, then Oklahoma will probably claw their way to the supers, one 3-1 game at a time.
UVA will host Oklahoma (2 seed), Appalachian State (3 seed), and Army (4 seed) at Davenport Field this weekend, with UVA vs. Army getting things started at 11 AM tomorrow. (The early start time is because it's gon' rain.) So you know our opponents, but do you really know them? You will.
Record: 38-22 (13-10 Big 12)
RPI: #28
Lineup:
C: Tanner Toal (.219-1-7)
1B: Evan Mistich (.269-3-32)
2B: Jack Mayfield (.286-3-26)
3B: Garrett Carey (.214-1-23)
SS: Caleb Bushyhead (.254-1-15)
LF: Erik Ross (.295-0-18)
CF: Max White (.356-2-54)
RF: Cody Reine (.268-5-27)
DH: Hunter Lockwood (.250-11-39)
Notes: Lockwood is also a catcher and has played quite a few games there, but the Sooners appear to have settled on Toal behind the plate; Toal has the superior arm. That leaves Lockwood and Matt Oberste (.311-5-16) to platoon at DH, which is not a great situation for Oklahoma because they're two of the better hitters on the team.
Pitching:
Starters:
LHP Jordan John (8-6, 2.30, 97 Ks)
LHP Dillon Overton (5-3, 3.24, 109 Ks)
RHP Jonathan Gray (8-4, 3.47, 90 Ks)
Bullpen:
LHP Steven Okert (8-7, 2.92, 71 Ks, 4 sv.)
RHP Damien Magnifico (3-1, 3.86, 33 Ks)
RHP Kindle Ladd (0-1, 4.56, 20 Ks)
We meet again. Probably. Though Oklahoma has several of the same hitters they brought with them two years ago to the Charlottesville super-regional, this lineup actually bears little resemblance to the one that kept us from reaching Omaha in 2010. Even though that was the final year for the pingbats (thus making comparisons difficult) the truth is that it's still a much weaker lineup. Oklahoma has gotten through thus far on the strength of their starting rotation.
It's a very good one. It has to be; the bullpen is wicked thin. There are only six pitchers who've thrown more than 20 innings all season, and three of them are their innings-eating starters. Jordan John will get the start for OU against App. State in the first game, which means that UVA, if we face the Sooners in game 2, will almost certainly bat against Dillon Overton. Overton is one of those guys like GT's Buck Farmer, who on any given day will either send a parade of hitters shuffling back to the dugout or allow a parade of baserunners to merry-go-round their way around the bases.
More on this later, but OU's relatively weak lineup is a possible reason for Brian O'Connor's surprising (to me) decision to burn Branden Kline in the first game. Max White is a very, very dangerous three-hole hitter, and Hunter Lockwood's 11 home runs playing in the pitchers' park that OU has - that's very impressive. Outside of that, though, it's a pedestrian lineup, and OU bats a Duke-esque .269 as a team.
Record: 39-16 (21-9 SoCon)
RPI: #40
Lineup:
C: Jeremy Dowdy (.271-3-37)
1B: Trey Holmes (.249-6-37)
2B: Hector Crespo (.317-3-23)
3B: Noah Holmes (.229-1-18)
SS: Will Callaway (.330-4-52)
LF: Preston Troutman (.280-0-24)
CF: Tyler Zupcic (.338-2-24)
RF: Tyler Tewell (.375-6-43)
DH: Daniel Kassouf (.345-17-60)
Notes: None
Pitching:
Starters:
RHP Ryan Arrowood (10-0, 4.03, 84 Ks)
RHP Seth Grant (6-3, 3.33, 65 Ks)
LHP Rob Marcello (6-4, 5.19, 45 Ks)
Bullpen:
RHP Nathan Hyatt (1-0, 3.46, 28 Ks, 15 sv.)
RHP Jamie Nunn (5-2, 3.88, 45 Ks)
RHP Tyler Moore (3-2, 5.53, 18 Ks)
RHP David Port (2-1, 5.61, 12 Ks)
LHP Jeffrey Springs (2-0, 4.07, 18 Ks)
The top seed in the Southern Conference tournament, Appy State had a poor showing and was invited to the NCAAs as an at-large. Probably their ticket was punched way back in February, when they went to Baton Rouge and took a three-game series from LSU by holding the Tigers to just one run in the final two games.
That's the kind of thing that forbids you to take the Mountaineers lightly. Despite the supposedly weaker competition in the SoCon, I'd take their lineup over OU's any day, not least because I'd get the best hitter in the whole regional: DH Daniel Kassouf. Certainly his 17 home runs are to be taken seriously. RF Tyler Tewell is also an outstanding hitter, batting .375. In all, five of App State's starters made 1st or 2nd team all-conference.
App State also has their conference's pitcher of the year: right-hander Ryan Arrowood. Arrowood will pitch against Oklahoma in game 1, so if UVA draws the Mountaineers in the second game, the likely moundsman is righty Seth Grant. Grant has solid numbers, though probably isn't quite the pitcher that OU's Overton is; nevertheless, I'm not sure I wouldn't rather face the Sooners. When teams beat UVA it's usually not because we can't hit, it's because our pitchers get knocked around. The Mountaineers could be a worse matchup for us.
Record: 41-13 (18-2 PL)
RPI: #112
Lineup:
C: J.T. Watkins (.318-5-31)
1B: Kevin McKague (.389-5-44)
2B: Zach Price (.324-0-24)
3B: Harold Earls (.347-0-22)
SS: Alex Jensen (.259-0-23)
LF: Daniel Cortes (.274-0-23)
CF: Matthew Carter (.250-0-5)
RF: Cody Murtle (.251-4-41)
DH: Mark McCants (.241-2-28)
Notes: McKague is also used occasionally out of the bullpen.
Pitching:
Starters:
RHP Chris Rowley (11-0, 1.97, 76 Ks)
LHP Logan Lee (8-2, 3.28, 60 Ks)
LHP Nick Dignacco (7-2, 3.38, 58 Ks)
Bullpen:
RHP Gunnar Carroll (2-0, 2.45, 40 Ks, 8 sv.)
RHP Alex Robinett (3-1, 2.73, 42 Ks)
RHP Manny Fernandez (4-1, 2.22, 16 Ks)
RHP Andrew Flaherty (3-1, 3.04, 10 Ks)
Everything here comes with the caveat that the Patriot League, as a northern low-major conference, inflates statistics. That said, those are some eye-popping numbers on Army's ace, Chris Rowley, who'll throw against UVA tomorrow. (Or today, depending on when you read this.) Rowley is an efficient ground-ball pitcher; he doesn't walk many batters, and when pitching against Bucknell this year, he threw a seven-inning complete game in 78 minutes and needed only 65 pitches.
That said, all those guys hitting .259 or worse, well, they did that against Patriot League pitching, mostly. Since it's Kline who got the nod against Army, as long as the dominant version of Kline shows up, they probably won't be able to touch him. They're a light-hitting team: only 16 dingers all season, and all hit by four players. Only Kevin McKague has reached double-digit doubles (with 16) and Army as a team slugs only .365. However, they're very slick with the glove, with one exception: shortstop Alex Jensen has 21 errors.
Fun fact: The Hoos haven't played the USMA since 1913, a 9-3 loss. So it's time to get revenge for a century-old wound. Best served cold, etc. Plus we need to give Jim Reid (Mike London's DC, in case you put football out of your mind) braggin' rights: his son Matt is Army's coach.
**********************************************
As mentioned, inclement weather in the forecast has moved the games up in the day, and UVA will play at 11 AM. As the host, we have the option to go first or second, and this is why we go first. We're much more likely to get our game in.
Now, as for why we're burning up our ace in the first game, against the four seed and contrary to what I consider conventional wisdom? Possible reasons:
- The possibility that OU and App State won't get their game in til Saturday; therefore, if Kline can eat up a bunch of innings, we'll have a way fresher bullpen than whoever awaits.
- Respect for Chris Rowley; BOC may feel a need to match Army's ace with our ace.
- If we jump on Army early, Kline can be pulled and then used out of the pen as needed later on. (I don't put any stock in this theory, however; it's not likely we'll "jump on" Rowley, and BOC doesn't tend to think in terms of what will happen if the absolute best-case comes to pass.)
- Anticipation that we'll face Oklahoma in game 2, against whom we may not need our ace.
Also a mystery: who starts the second game? This probably hinges upon the staff's opinion of Scott Silverstein: is he still dependable, or falling apart? If the former, then they'll go with him; if the latter, they'll try Lewicki and hope to win, which would put Silverstein in a lower-pressure situation.
Our hopes also may hinge on some injury news. Reed Gragnani may finally be ready to return, giving us some needed flexibility in the lineup. And the status of Shane Halley, who's morphed from emergency arm to the most dependable guy in the pen, and then missed several weeks, is up in the air. A deep bullpen is a must in tournament play, and Halley will be badly missed if he can't go.
Because they don't feel like they earned their money if they pick all #1 seeds, a lot of pundits are picking Oklahoma. There's some logic in that, given OU's formidable starting rotation. However, this is a regional of flawed teams, and it's also fair to say UVA is the least flawed of the four. We have a balanced lineup, and pitchers that can shut down any of these teams - if they pitch up to their potential. UVA will win this regional if that happens. If not, then Oklahoma will probably claw their way to the supers, one 3-1 game at a time.
Sunday, March 11, 2012
stomping grounds
It doesn't seem likely the baseball team will make Omaha this year. It's a rebuilding reloading year. So we're sending our basketball team in their place. Another postseason, another SEC opponent that borrowed our colors.** So it goes.
Yes, UVA drew the Florida Gators in the first round. If you expect the S-curve to hold true to form (it doesn't, because of the other bracket principles like never having conference opponents playing until the Elite 8) we are the best 10 seed and Florida is the worst 7 seed. This is because Kentucky is the nation's #1 seed, and that team is always on the same side of the bracket as the worst #1 seed. That makes Mizzou - the likely opponent if we beat Florida - the best #2 seed.
The 30-second book on Florida is that they "can score like crazy, but they can't defend." KenPom backs that up: Florida is the #3 offensive team in the country but, of the 68 teams in the field, they are 54th on defense, sandwiched between 16A-seeded Vermont (they're going to Dayton on Tuesday) and 15-seeded Loyola (MD). Florida is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, a tough match-up for the pack-line. But they're also a small team, the kind against whom UVA has found room to work.
Good news as far as I'm concerned: the game is Friday. I always like to play Friday. You're in the tournament longer. And every day that Joe Harris's hand goes between basketball games is a good day. On a personal note, this is a fun tourney: it's the first since I was a bright-eyed and bushy-tailed first-year that U-M and UVA are in at the same time, and as a special bonus my grad school is also up in this thing. I will have your game preview Thursday, because Virginia, Michigan, and Detroit are all playing on Friday, plus also screw you it's the tournament I ain't doing shit on Friday. Tomorrow, I'll catch myself up on all that I missed in the past nine or so days. Also, on a final programming note, get used to Sunday posts for a while because I'll be firing up my lacrosse bracketology series again next week. This may, some weeks, mean no Friday posts.
And yes, this means I'm back from Peru. It was a really fun trip, but at the same time it's nice to be able to turn on a faucet and receive drinkable water. Peru is a don't-drink-the-water country. But I found the silver lining: it becomes advisable, sensible, and correct to order beer at every meal. (No, not breakfast, you degenerate.) As a little prize this week, each post will include one or two of the best pictures from the trip.
**I read somewhere, and I can't find it anymore but I distinctly remember reading it, that Florida's colors are blue and orange because some representative of the school of some kind was visiting Charlottesville and had been asked to bring back athletic gear for the football team, and naturally what they bought was in blue and orange. Hence their colors. That's my story, anyway, and I'm sticking to it even if I can no longer find a shred of evidence.
Yes, UVA drew the Florida Gators in the first round. If you expect the S-curve to hold true to form (it doesn't, because of the other bracket principles like never having conference opponents playing until the Elite 8) we are the best 10 seed and Florida is the worst 7 seed. This is because Kentucky is the nation's #1 seed, and that team is always on the same side of the bracket as the worst #1 seed. That makes Mizzou - the likely opponent if we beat Florida - the best #2 seed.
The 30-second book on Florida is that they "can score like crazy, but they can't defend." KenPom backs that up: Florida is the #3 offensive team in the country but, of the 68 teams in the field, they are 54th on defense, sandwiched between 16A-seeded Vermont (they're going to Dayton on Tuesday) and 15-seeded Loyola (MD). Florida is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, a tough match-up for the pack-line. But they're also a small team, the kind against whom UVA has found room to work.
Good news as far as I'm concerned: the game is Friday. I always like to play Friday. You're in the tournament longer. And every day that Joe Harris's hand goes between basketball games is a good day. On a personal note, this is a fun tourney: it's the first since I was a bright-eyed and bushy-tailed first-year that U-M and UVA are in at the same time, and as a special bonus my grad school is also up in this thing. I will have your game preview Thursday, because Virginia, Michigan, and Detroit are all playing on Friday, plus also screw you it's the tournament I ain't doing shit on Friday. Tomorrow, I'll catch myself up on all that I missed in the past nine or so days. Also, on a final programming note, get used to Sunday posts for a while because I'll be firing up my lacrosse bracketology series again next week. This may, some weeks, mean no Friday posts.
And yes, this means I'm back from Peru. It was a really fun trip, but at the same time it's nice to be able to turn on a faucet and receive drinkable water. Peru is a don't-drink-the-water country. But I found the silver lining: it becomes advisable, sensible, and correct to order beer at every meal. (No, not breakfast, you degenerate.) As a little prize this week, each post will include one or two of the best pictures from the trip.
**I read somewhere, and I can't find it anymore but I distinctly remember reading it, that Florida's colors are blue and orange because some representative of the school of some kind was visiting Charlottesville and had been asked to bring back athletic gear for the football team, and naturally what they bought was in blue and orange. Hence their colors. That's my story, anyway, and I'm sticking to it even if I can no longer find a shred of evidence.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
regional of near-doom review
I tell you what - it's probably actually more nerve-racking to watch baseball games unfold on Gametracker than it is watching them on TV. Cause you never know when the next pitch is gonna happen. Might be now, or it might be three minutes from now and then it's gonna give you four quick ones in a row. And sometimes the damn thing ain't even right. This baseball version seems to be OK enough, but I still have very annoying memories of the time the Yahoo gametracker thing told me we'd hit a game-winning three-pointer against VT only to find out a few minutes later it was a game-tying bucket, and yes, we lost big in OT.
Anyway, Gametracker it was for me this weekend, for two games that were pretty much blowouts and two games that were way closer than they should have been. So here's what happened over the weekend:
Friday: UVA 15, VCU 4
Cody Winiarski gets the start for the Hoos and is quickly staked to a 7-1 lead at the expense of VCU's not-so-scary-after-all ace, Seth Cutler-Voltz. Winiarski doesn't last as long as we'd ideally like, frittering away half that lead in the fourth inning and forcing Brian O'Connor to bring in shutdown long reliever Tyler Wilson. Wilson puts an end to any more VCU thoughts of ever again arriving safely at second base, let alone scoring; he breezes through three full innings, by which time the lead is large enough that backup infielder and sometimes-pitcher Corey Hunt - he of the ten IP all year - is brought in to finish the last two, which he does as the UVA bats continue to give the scoreboard operator something to do. All nine UVA starters get at least one hit, and the 5/6/7 hitters (Parker, Hicks, and Cannon) combine for nine hits, nine runs, and eight RBI.
Saturday: UVA 13, Ole Miss 7
The Hoos jump on Ole Miss starter Aaron Barrett for 7 runs, leading Rebs fans to lament that if their second starter can't last three innings, they're really screwed going forward. (They were right: in the next game, Ole Miss starter David Goforth failed to get out of the first inning enroute to giving up eight of St. John's 20 runs.) Danny Hultzen fails to be Hultzen-esque, giving up six runs in six innings. He gets the win anyway, and Branden Kline slams the door after making an oops pitch on a full count to the first batter. For the second game in a row, every UVA starting hitter collects a hit. Most collect two. John Barr collects four in four at bats and somehow manages to never score.
Sunday: St. John's 6, UVA 5
Well damn. UVA had just racked up 28 runs in 2 games and was facing a pitcher with an ERA north of 6; this was supposed to be the crowning slaughter. Instead we get a game that wasn't really as close as it looked. Other than a five-run fourth, UVA's bats were held mostly silent, and Robert Morey immediately gave back two of them in the bottom half of the inning. Despite this, UVA clung to a 5-4 lead through three and a half more innings, until St. John's slugger extraordinaire (who is a FRESHMAN and has TWENTY-FOUR HOME RUNS) delivered his second souvenir of the day into the outfield bleachers. Or maybe beyond. That was the margin of victory, and of course it came with two outs.
Monday: UVA 5, St. John's 3
Since we couldn't seem to figure out how to hit the ball past the outfielders, O'Connor resorted to some small ball. Sacrifices, double steals, and the ever-popular UVA classic, grounding into inning-ending double plays with the bases loaded, resulted in getting runs one at a time. Better than barely getting them at all, though. Branden Kline pitched 5 1/3 excellent innings and Kevin Arico had his longest outing of the year. Why longest? Because Brian O'Connor is a smart baseball man, not a dummy. UVA was sitting on a 4-1 lead in the top of the 6th; unfortunately, the bases were loaded and St. John's had Baltzey at the bat. You do not keep your closer around for the 9th inning if the game is about ready to be lost in the 6th. O'Connor brought in Arico to face Baltz, and Baltz grounded weakly to second; too weakly, as the Hoos didn't manage to get the double play and a run scored anyway. UVA escaped the inning with a 4-3 lead, which would prove to be enough as Arico has balls the size of coconuts.
Outlook:
- Should you be worried about the bats? No, not really. Most of the time, the hits were there when we needed them. Oklahoma's starting pitching is a little bit meh for a one-seed, so we'll get our offense.
- Should you be worried about Danny Hultzen? Absolutely. An ERA that's ballooned about a full point in the last month or so is cause for concern, and his last few outings haven't been great. You live and die with your ace, so he'll be out there for Game 1 on Saturday; let's hope he's good for six or seven strong ones.
- St. John's is going to be a very, very good team next year.
- Again: Props to O'Connor for bringing in the fireman when it mattered. The game was won right there in the sixth-inning with the go-ahead run at the plate and 24 home runs under his belt. It may seem like the no-brainer, but with the bats steadily going cold, it's too risky to bring in anyone but your best; nevertheless, some managers -big-league ones, too - will insist on the notion that if you have a closer, he's a 9th-inning guy only. No, you bring him in when you need the big guns, and if that's as early as the 6th, so be it.
- More on Oklahoma on Friday. For now, give a shout to your regional champs.
Anyway, Gametracker it was for me this weekend, for two games that were pretty much blowouts and two games that were way closer than they should have been. So here's what happened over the weekend:
Friday: UVA 15, VCU 4
Cody Winiarski gets the start for the Hoos and is quickly staked to a 7-1 lead at the expense of VCU's not-so-scary-after-all ace, Seth Cutler-Voltz. Winiarski doesn't last as long as we'd ideally like, frittering away half that lead in the fourth inning and forcing Brian O'Connor to bring in shutdown long reliever Tyler Wilson. Wilson puts an end to any more VCU thoughts of ever again arriving safely at second base, let alone scoring; he breezes through three full innings, by which time the lead is large enough that backup infielder and sometimes-pitcher Corey Hunt - he of the ten IP all year - is brought in to finish the last two, which he does as the UVA bats continue to give the scoreboard operator something to do. All nine UVA starters get at least one hit, and the 5/6/7 hitters (Parker, Hicks, and Cannon) combine for nine hits, nine runs, and eight RBI.
Saturday: UVA 13, Ole Miss 7
The Hoos jump on Ole Miss starter Aaron Barrett for 7 runs, leading Rebs fans to lament that if their second starter can't last three innings, they're really screwed going forward. (They were right: in the next game, Ole Miss starter David Goforth failed to get out of the first inning enroute to giving up eight of St. John's 20 runs.) Danny Hultzen fails to be Hultzen-esque, giving up six runs in six innings. He gets the win anyway, and Branden Kline slams the door after making an oops pitch on a full count to the first batter. For the second game in a row, every UVA starting hitter collects a hit. Most collect two. John Barr collects four in four at bats and somehow manages to never score.
Sunday: St. John's 6, UVA 5
Well damn. UVA had just racked up 28 runs in 2 games and was facing a pitcher with an ERA north of 6; this was supposed to be the crowning slaughter. Instead we get a game that wasn't really as close as it looked. Other than a five-run fourth, UVA's bats were held mostly silent, and Robert Morey immediately gave back two of them in the bottom half of the inning. Despite this, UVA clung to a 5-4 lead through three and a half more innings, until St. John's slugger extraordinaire (who is a FRESHMAN and has TWENTY-FOUR HOME RUNS) delivered his second souvenir of the day into the outfield bleachers. Or maybe beyond. That was the margin of victory, and of course it came with two outs.
Monday: UVA 5, St. John's 3
Since we couldn't seem to figure out how to hit the ball past the outfielders, O'Connor resorted to some small ball. Sacrifices, double steals, and the ever-popular UVA classic, grounding into inning-ending double plays with the bases loaded, resulted in getting runs one at a time. Better than barely getting them at all, though. Branden Kline pitched 5 1/3 excellent innings and Kevin Arico had his longest outing of the year. Why longest? Because Brian O'Connor is a smart baseball man, not a dummy. UVA was sitting on a 4-1 lead in the top of the 6th; unfortunately, the bases were loaded and St. John's had Baltzey at the bat. You do not keep your closer around for the 9th inning if the game is about ready to be lost in the 6th. O'Connor brought in Arico to face Baltz, and Baltz grounded weakly to second; too weakly, as the Hoos didn't manage to get the double play and a run scored anyway. UVA escaped the inning with a 4-3 lead, which would prove to be enough as Arico has balls the size of coconuts.
Outlook:
- Should you be worried about the bats? No, not really. Most of the time, the hits were there when we needed them. Oklahoma's starting pitching is a little bit meh for a one-seed, so we'll get our offense.
- Should you be worried about Danny Hultzen? Absolutely. An ERA that's ballooned about a full point in the last month or so is cause for concern, and his last few outings haven't been great. You live and die with your ace, so he'll be out there for Game 1 on Saturday; let's hope he's good for six or seven strong ones.
- St. John's is going to be a very, very good team next year.
- Again: Props to O'Connor for bringing in the fireman when it mattered. The game was won right there in the sixth-inning with the go-ahead run at the plate and 24 home runs under his belt. It may seem like the no-brainer, but with the bats steadily going cold, it's too risky to bring in anyone but your best; nevertheless, some managers -big-league ones, too - will insist on the notion that if you have a closer, he's a 9th-inning guy only. No, you bring him in when you need the big guns, and if that's as early as the 6th, so be it.
- More on Oklahoma on Friday. For now, give a shout to your regional champs.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Charlottesville regional preview
No traveling for the Hoos this year, at least not for a couple weeks. The reward for being one of the top 8 teams in the NCAA baseball tournament is to host a four-team regional, and a super-regional if they make it out of the weekend. The only puzzling decision is making UVA the #5 seed instead of the top-3 seed they deserved, but it's been pretty much confirmed that everyone who knows anything about baseball thinks that's retarded. (Ratcliffe at the CDP says we got "the fuzzy end of the lollipop" which sounds like the weirdest G-rated euphemism ever for something very X-rated. Use your imagination.)
That being said, it's not a bad draw. Here's a preview of the three teams coming to Charlottesville this weekend:
Ole Miss
You recognize the name. You won't really recognize the team. Last year's Rebel squad was good enough to be in Omaha had they been maybe a little more fortunate on the draw. That team could hit and had plenty of quality options behind Drew Pomeranz on the mound. This team still has Pomeranz, but the hitting and the pitching isn't nearly up to snuff with last year's team. They ended up with a middling finish in the SEC, the result of a really maddening season in which they would do things like sweep powerhouse LSU but drop a series to doormat Tennessee. You're always in for a fight when you take on an SEC team in the NCAAs, but as #2 seeds go, we could have had a worse draw.
Possible lineup:
CF Tim Ferguson (.301-8-33)
3B Zach Miller (.279-2-46)
RF Matt Smith (.344-12-51)
DH Matt Snyder (.343-10-33)
LF Taylor Hashman (.307-9-40)
2B Alex Yarbrough (.285-3-37)
1B Miles Hamblin (.225-6-39)
SS Kevin Mort (.279-2-22)
C Taylor Hightower (.285-0-17)
Rotation:
RHP Drew Pomeranz (8-2, 2.21)
RHP Aaron Barrett (7-4, 4.16)
RHP David Goforth (1-5, 8.41)
RHP Rory McKean (4-2, 5.65)
Bullpen:
LHP Matt Crouse (5-1, 3.12)
RHP Trent Rothlin (3-4, 4.43)
RHP Eric Callender (4-1, 5.83)
LHP Matt Tracy (4-3, 5.98)
RHP Brett Huber (2-0, 2.54, 12 SV)
Ole Miss against the ACC: no games
The lineup is largely conjecture; as you can see, Ole Miss has struggled to find any consistency from the bottom half. In some cases they have two players to choose from at a certain position: one that can't hit for contact and one that has no power. And of the seven players with .300 or greater batting averages from last year, four are gone and one was Miller, for whom the bottom dropped out this year.
Since Davenport qualifies as a pitcher's park - smaller than Ole Miss's Swayze Field in the alleys and out to center - I think we'll see Ole Miss lean toward contact hitters, so you might also see backup outfielder Tanner Mathis in the lineup against right-handers.
As for the pitchers, there's conflicting information as to who'll get the call on Friday for Ole Miss. Might as well go with the direct quote from Rebels' coach Mike Bianco, who says top-ten-pick-in-waiting Drew Pomeranz will get the start against St. John's. That means the Hoos, if UVA and Ole Miss win, will face Aaron Barrett. And it means Barrett will have to go against Danny Hultzen, as O'Connor has tabbed Cody Winiarski to start on Friday. (The right choice: if we can't beat the #147 team in the country with any of our weekend starters, we'll never get to Omaha anyway.)
After Pomeranz and Barrett, though, the rotation is almost totally worthless. The Rebels missed out on a lot of sweeps - including one against SEC punching bag Georgia - because they have no third starter at all. If the series holds true to seeding form and UVA faces Ole Miss in a championship game on Sunday, the hitters will be absolutely salivating at the prospect of a few at-bats each against a used-up Ole Miss pen. With Pomeranz going on Friday, a UVA-Ole Miss matchup should be in the cards for Saturday, and the Rebels don't have the bats to chase Hultzen nor the arms to win any games after Saturday.
St. John's
Dangerous matchup for Ole Miss here, as the Johnnies can hit and have one quality pitcher. They caught a break on the schedule by not having to play regular-season champ UConn, but nevertheless had to get past the Huskies for the Big East championship, which they did. Ace Kyle Hansen pitched into the 7th inning against UConn after having gone eight full frames just four days earlier.
A lot of the Storm's best players are freshman, including Hansen and masher extraordinaire Jeremy Baltz. Not good for future Big East opponents, but here's hoping experience and guile plus a loud Davenport win out in any potential UVA-SJU matchup.
Possible lineup:
CF Scott Ferrara (.282-1-29)
RF Jimmy Parque (.352-4-44)
SS Joe Panik (.383-8-48)
LF Jeremy Baltz (.393-20-74)
3B Greg Hopkins (.367-6-55)
2B Matt Wessinger (.284-4-43)
1B Paul Karmas (.329-8-52)
DH Sean O'Hare (.352-1-29)
C Joe Witkowski (.217-0-8)
Rotation:
RHP Kyle Hansen (8-1, 3.09)
RHP Bruce Kern (6-5, 5.91)
RHP Nick Cenatiempo (1-1, 6.34)
RHP Matt Carasiti (7-4, 5.88)
Bullpen:
LHP Kevin Kilpatrick (1-1, 3.57)
RHP Stephen Rivera (4-2, 3.65)
RHP Ryan Cole (3-1, 3.96)
LHP Sean Hagan (4-1, 4.74)
RHP Daniel Burawa (1-0, 2.78, 11 SV)
St. John's against the ACC: lost to UNC 8-2, beat Boston College 17-9
Extrapolate Jeremy Baltz's numbers out to a 162-game MLB season and you get 56 HRs and 207 RBIs. Jeesh. 20 and 74 are damn good for major leaguers, never mind someone who's only played 58 games in his entire college career. Do not make a mistake pitching to Baltz.
St. John's plays in a bandbox, however: about 320 down the lines and just 380 to straightaway center. They're going to have an extremely tough road in this regional: first Drew Pomeranz, then likely Danny Hultzen if they get past Pomeranz, all in an unfamiliar pitcher's park.
And after Hansen in the rotation - nothing. They have a good bullpen; important because starting pitchers like Cenatiempo have a nasty habit of giving up a lot of hits and not pitching deep into games. Rivera and Kilpatrick are the long-relief types and they figure to get a lot of work this weekend.
If St. John's is the Saturday opponent, Kern will likely oppose the Hoos. He's a better pitcher than that ERA would indicate; decent strikeout pitcher, but in the end nothing worse than UVA's seen in ACC competition, and no match for Hultzen. This is a rotation even thinner than Ole Miss's, but the bullpen is better. Even so, if St. John's is going to win games this weekend, they'll need to be by scores of 12-8. And if they're going to win the whole regional, they'll have to do as they did in the Big East tournament and pitch Hansen on short rest. If SJU manages to make it to Monday for a winner-take-all game, don't be surprised to see them trot him out there.
VCU
The baseball committee thinks all #4 seeds are equal, and assigns them to regionals by pure geography. Thus, VCU. The Rams have the only .400 hitter in the regional other than Keith Werman, but might also go the entire weekend without hitting a home run. You want a light-hitting team? VCU is it: 33 home runs all year, and 20 of them hit by two players.
Possible lineup:
CF Matt Leskiw (.270-0-14)
2B Richard Gonzalez (.391-0-37)
3B Joe Van Meter (.433-10-72)
1B Brent Mikionis (.332-10-50)
RF John Lenherr (.293-2-35)
SS Nick Kime (.250-0-10)
LF Paul Nice (.278-2-29)
C Taylor Perkins (.306-2-30)
DH Doug Otto (.281-4-33)
Rotation:
RHP Seth Cutler-Voltz (8-3, 3.20)
RHP Kyle Haynes (3-3, 5.40)
LHP Ryan Farrar (4-5, 8.14)
LHP Michael Graham (4-4, 7.36)
Bullpen:
RHP Jonathan Watson (4-2, 2.78)
RHP Kyle Pelchy (2-0, 4.12)
LHP Brennan Huelse (1-1, 3.54)
RHP Robbie Andrews (1-2, 3.18, 9 SV)
VCU against the ACC: lost to Maryland 7-2, lost to UVA 10-5
One month to the day of the regional opener against VCU, UVA was playing a weekday game against these same Rams. The Hoos won 10-5, scoring runs off of every pitcher VCU sent to the mound, and Branden Kline gave up four runs in six innings for the win. VCU actually hit two home runs in that game. I haven't bothered to check if that was their only multi-homer game all year, but it's possible. Get through VCU's 3 and 4 hitters and the ball is not at all likely to leave the yard.
VCU will throw Seth Cutler-Voltz against us, and he's got more than just a cool name going for him. SCV is coming off two complete-game wins in a row, and any hope of an upset lies with his right arm. The thing is, though, Cutler-Voltz has yet to throw against anyone worth talking about, and no, JMU doesn't count. Fellow tournament 4-seed Bethune-Cookman is the only opponent resembling a difficult team on Cutler-Voltz's resume, and they shelled him.
Right-hander Winiarski should match up well against VCU's lineup, which figures to trot out just two lefties and no switch-hitters. VCU's non-home-run-hitting lineup is also a better matchup for Cody than the other lineups in the regional, as he's a soft-tosser and has a much greater tendency than our other pitchers to give up home runs. But the bottom line is this: Cody is a weekend starter, and if we can't beat a four-seed, #147-RPI team with a weekend starter, then Omaha was never going to happen anyway.
Outlook for UVA
Keith Werman and Franco Valdes may not have been everyday starters this year, but chances are we'll never see a southpaw this weekend, so look for both to get plenty of at-bats this weekend. Along with Dan Grovatt and Jarrett Parker, that's a solid number of lefties to send to the plate against all these right-handers we'll see; first Cutler-Voltz, then Kern or Barrett, and then whatever poor schlub and his 6+ ERA has to face this lineup after that.
The biggest game is the second one. It's good to be the king; the 1 seed has the luxury of being able to hold back their ace for Saturday, expecting that it won't take your top pitcher to beat Friday's opponent. A win on Saturday either gives us a one-win (vice three-in-a-row) path to victory, or it (heaven forbid we end up in this situation) staves off elimination, so having Hultzen available for that game is huge. Especially if it's against St. John's and their murderer's row.
This is set up very, very nicely for UVA to win. The difference in pitching staffs is a mile wide. No, I'm not spoiled by looking at our own; there are plenty of teams that didn't make this tournament that have deeper and better pitching staffs than the three that got sent to Charlottesville. Even if we have to play Sunday morning in an elimination game, by that time our opponent will have burned through just about every worthwhile pitcher and we'll have Robert Morey. And if we go 2-0 on Friday and Saturday, it's over; some poor used-up staff is going to have to try and win two in a row against Morey and then (probably) Kline. Ain't happening. If we go 2-0, the third game will be a slaughter.
But to get to 2-0, the bats need to perk up. The Miami game was a great reassurance, because the rest of the ACC tournament and a few of the weekends prior were starting to see things go cold at the plate. Still - this weekend could be just the tonic, especially if we never see Drew Pomeranz.
That being said, it's not a bad draw. Here's a preview of the three teams coming to Charlottesville this weekend:
Ole MissYou recognize the name. You won't really recognize the team. Last year's Rebel squad was good enough to be in Omaha had they been maybe a little more fortunate on the draw. That team could hit and had plenty of quality options behind Drew Pomeranz on the mound. This team still has Pomeranz, but the hitting and the pitching isn't nearly up to snuff with last year's team. They ended up with a middling finish in the SEC, the result of a really maddening season in which they would do things like sweep powerhouse LSU but drop a series to doormat Tennessee. You're always in for a fight when you take on an SEC team in the NCAAs, but as #2 seeds go, we could have had a worse draw.
Possible lineup:
CF Tim Ferguson (.301-8-33)
3B Zach Miller (.279-2-46)
RF Matt Smith (.344-12-51)
DH Matt Snyder (.343-10-33)
LF Taylor Hashman (.307-9-40)
2B Alex Yarbrough (.285-3-37)
1B Miles Hamblin (.225-6-39)
SS Kevin Mort (.279-2-22)
C Taylor Hightower (.285-0-17)
Rotation:
RHP Drew Pomeranz (8-2, 2.21)
RHP Aaron Barrett (7-4, 4.16)
RHP David Goforth (1-5, 8.41)
RHP Rory McKean (4-2, 5.65)
Bullpen:
LHP Matt Crouse (5-1, 3.12)
RHP Trent Rothlin (3-4, 4.43)
RHP Eric Callender (4-1, 5.83)
LHP Matt Tracy (4-3, 5.98)
RHP Brett Huber (2-0, 2.54, 12 SV)
Ole Miss against the ACC: no games
The lineup is largely conjecture; as you can see, Ole Miss has struggled to find any consistency from the bottom half. In some cases they have two players to choose from at a certain position: one that can't hit for contact and one that has no power. And of the seven players with .300 or greater batting averages from last year, four are gone and one was Miller, for whom the bottom dropped out this year.
Since Davenport qualifies as a pitcher's park - smaller than Ole Miss's Swayze Field in the alleys and out to center - I think we'll see Ole Miss lean toward contact hitters, so you might also see backup outfielder Tanner Mathis in the lineup against right-handers.
As for the pitchers, there's conflicting information as to who'll get the call on Friday for Ole Miss. Might as well go with the direct quote from Rebels' coach Mike Bianco, who says top-ten-pick-in-waiting Drew Pomeranz will get the start against St. John's. That means the Hoos, if UVA and Ole Miss win, will face Aaron Barrett. And it means Barrett will have to go against Danny Hultzen, as O'Connor has tabbed Cody Winiarski to start on Friday. (The right choice: if we can't beat the #147 team in the country with any of our weekend starters, we'll never get to Omaha anyway.)
After Pomeranz and Barrett, though, the rotation is almost totally worthless. The Rebels missed out on a lot of sweeps - including one against SEC punching bag Georgia - because they have no third starter at all. If the series holds true to seeding form and UVA faces Ole Miss in a championship game on Sunday, the hitters will be absolutely salivating at the prospect of a few at-bats each against a used-up Ole Miss pen. With Pomeranz going on Friday, a UVA-Ole Miss matchup should be in the cards for Saturday, and the Rebels don't have the bats to chase Hultzen nor the arms to win any games after Saturday.
St. John'sDangerous matchup for Ole Miss here, as the Johnnies can hit and have one quality pitcher. They caught a break on the schedule by not having to play regular-season champ UConn, but nevertheless had to get past the Huskies for the Big East championship, which they did. Ace Kyle Hansen pitched into the 7th inning against UConn after having gone eight full frames just four days earlier.
A lot of the Storm's best players are freshman, including Hansen and masher extraordinaire Jeremy Baltz. Not good for future Big East opponents, but here's hoping experience and guile plus a loud Davenport win out in any potential UVA-SJU matchup.
Possible lineup:
CF Scott Ferrara (.282-1-29)
RF Jimmy Parque (.352-4-44)
SS Joe Panik (.383-8-48)
LF Jeremy Baltz (.393-20-74)
3B Greg Hopkins (.367-6-55)
2B Matt Wessinger (.284-4-43)
1B Paul Karmas (.329-8-52)
DH Sean O'Hare (.352-1-29)
C Joe Witkowski (.217-0-8)
Rotation:
RHP Kyle Hansen (8-1, 3.09)
RHP Bruce Kern (6-5, 5.91)
RHP Nick Cenatiempo (1-1, 6.34)
RHP Matt Carasiti (7-4, 5.88)
Bullpen:
LHP Kevin Kilpatrick (1-1, 3.57)
RHP Stephen Rivera (4-2, 3.65)
RHP Ryan Cole (3-1, 3.96)
LHP Sean Hagan (4-1, 4.74)
RHP Daniel Burawa (1-0, 2.78, 11 SV)
St. John's against the ACC: lost to UNC 8-2, beat Boston College 17-9
Extrapolate Jeremy Baltz's numbers out to a 162-game MLB season and you get 56 HRs and 207 RBIs. Jeesh. 20 and 74 are damn good for major leaguers, never mind someone who's only played 58 games in his entire college career. Do not make a mistake pitching to Baltz.
St. John's plays in a bandbox, however: about 320 down the lines and just 380 to straightaway center. They're going to have an extremely tough road in this regional: first Drew Pomeranz, then likely Danny Hultzen if they get past Pomeranz, all in an unfamiliar pitcher's park.
And after Hansen in the rotation - nothing. They have a good bullpen; important because starting pitchers like Cenatiempo have a nasty habit of giving up a lot of hits and not pitching deep into games. Rivera and Kilpatrick are the long-relief types and they figure to get a lot of work this weekend.
If St. John's is the Saturday opponent, Kern will likely oppose the Hoos. He's a better pitcher than that ERA would indicate; decent strikeout pitcher, but in the end nothing worse than UVA's seen in ACC competition, and no match for Hultzen. This is a rotation even thinner than Ole Miss's, but the bullpen is better. Even so, if St. John's is going to win games this weekend, they'll need to be by scores of 12-8. And if they're going to win the whole regional, they'll have to do as they did in the Big East tournament and pitch Hansen on short rest. If SJU manages to make it to Monday for a winner-take-all game, don't be surprised to see them trot him out there.
VCUThe baseball committee thinks all #4 seeds are equal, and assigns them to regionals by pure geography. Thus, VCU. The Rams have the only .400 hitter in the regional other than Keith Werman, but might also go the entire weekend without hitting a home run. You want a light-hitting team? VCU is it: 33 home runs all year, and 20 of them hit by two players.
Possible lineup:
CF Matt Leskiw (.270-0-14)
2B Richard Gonzalez (.391-0-37)
3B Joe Van Meter (.433-10-72)
1B Brent Mikionis (.332-10-50)
RF John Lenherr (.293-2-35)
SS Nick Kime (.250-0-10)
LF Paul Nice (.278-2-29)
C Taylor Perkins (.306-2-30)
DH Doug Otto (.281-4-33)
Rotation:
RHP Seth Cutler-Voltz (8-3, 3.20)
RHP Kyle Haynes (3-3, 5.40)
LHP Ryan Farrar (4-5, 8.14)
LHP Michael Graham (4-4, 7.36)
Bullpen:
RHP Jonathan Watson (4-2, 2.78)
RHP Kyle Pelchy (2-0, 4.12)
LHP Brennan Huelse (1-1, 3.54)
RHP Robbie Andrews (1-2, 3.18, 9 SV)
VCU against the ACC: lost to Maryland 7-2, lost to UVA 10-5
One month to the day of the regional opener against VCU, UVA was playing a weekday game against these same Rams. The Hoos won 10-5, scoring runs off of every pitcher VCU sent to the mound, and Branden Kline gave up four runs in six innings for the win. VCU actually hit two home runs in that game. I haven't bothered to check if that was their only multi-homer game all year, but it's possible. Get through VCU's 3 and 4 hitters and the ball is not at all likely to leave the yard.
VCU will throw Seth Cutler-Voltz against us, and he's got more than just a cool name going for him. SCV is coming off two complete-game wins in a row, and any hope of an upset lies with his right arm. The thing is, though, Cutler-Voltz has yet to throw against anyone worth talking about, and no, JMU doesn't count. Fellow tournament 4-seed Bethune-Cookman is the only opponent resembling a difficult team on Cutler-Voltz's resume, and they shelled him.
Right-hander Winiarski should match up well against VCU's lineup, which figures to trot out just two lefties and no switch-hitters. VCU's non-home-run-hitting lineup is also a better matchup for Cody than the other lineups in the regional, as he's a soft-tosser and has a much greater tendency than our other pitchers to give up home runs. But the bottom line is this: Cody is a weekend starter, and if we can't beat a four-seed, #147-RPI team with a weekend starter, then Omaha was never going to happen anyway.
Outlook for UVA
Keith Werman and Franco Valdes may not have been everyday starters this year, but chances are we'll never see a southpaw this weekend, so look for both to get plenty of at-bats this weekend. Along with Dan Grovatt and Jarrett Parker, that's a solid number of lefties to send to the plate against all these right-handers we'll see; first Cutler-Voltz, then Kern or Barrett, and then whatever poor schlub and his 6+ ERA has to face this lineup after that.
The biggest game is the second one. It's good to be the king; the 1 seed has the luxury of being able to hold back their ace for Saturday, expecting that it won't take your top pitcher to beat Friday's opponent. A win on Saturday either gives us a one-win (vice three-in-a-row) path to victory, or it (heaven forbid we end up in this situation) staves off elimination, so having Hultzen available for that game is huge. Especially if it's against St. John's and their murderer's row.
This is set up very, very nicely for UVA to win. The difference in pitching staffs is a mile wide. No, I'm not spoiled by looking at our own; there are plenty of teams that didn't make this tournament that have deeper and better pitching staffs than the three that got sent to Charlottesville. Even if we have to play Sunday morning in an elimination game, by that time our opponent will have burned through just about every worthwhile pitcher and we'll have Robert Morey. And if we go 2-0 on Friday and Saturday, it's over; some poor used-up staff is going to have to try and win two in a row against Morey and then (probably) Kline. Ain't happening. If we go 2-0, the third game will be a slaughter.
But to get to 2-0, the bats need to perk up. The Miami game was a great reassurance, because the rest of the ACC tournament and a few of the weekends prior were starting to see things go cold at the plate. Still - this weekend could be just the tonic, especially if we never see Drew Pomeranz.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
long weekend review
Well, yeah. It could definitely have been a better weekend as far as weekends go. You know all about lacrosse because I already told you all about lacrosse. Major punch in the gut. I tell you what: given that the ACC baseball tournament game against Miami asn't going to change our own fortunes win or lose, I think I'd have traded that win for a win against Duke in lacrosse.
And I realize this is going to make half of you gag and the other half just straight-out barf, but I was happy to see that Duke ended up winning the tournament. My Michigan-fan contempt for Notre Dame overrides my UVA-fan contempt for Duke. And besides, Michigan is tossing around the idea of going varsity in lacrosse and if they do, it's going to be enough of a challenge to recruit against Notre Dame without a trophy in South Bend, let alone with one. Anyway, Duke had by far the better season and was by far the more deserving team. So, uh, yay. Ewwww, but yay.
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As for baseball, the ACC tournament could have gone better than it did, but it certainly could have gone worse. UVA finished 2-1 in pool play, but the tiebreaker sent Florida State to the championship game, since the one loss was to FSU. I think given the format it's a tiebreaker that makes sense, but naturally now that we're on the losing end of it, everyone thinks this format stinks and who came up with this shit anyway? Admittedly, it's a weird format. Double-elimination is the usual standard in baseball; a traditional bracket doesn't work well since baseball, more than any other sport, can turn on a roll of the dice or a hot pitcher. Look at San Diego State last year. Not a great team overall, but their one ace gave them a legit shot at knocking off the ACC champion. So most tournaments are double-elimination, but the ACC coaches didn't like it because it burns up everybody's bullpen and leaves them with tired arms for the NCAA regionals the following week.
This isn't a great format either, given that in four years it's turned out the following championship matchups:
2 vs. 8
1 vs. 6
1 vs. 6
5 vs. 7
The bottom half of the pools (5 through 8) have made the championship more than the top half (1 through 4.) That's not really the sign of a good format. Not only that, but the divisions really screw up the seeding. We did end up beating Miami, but if seeded strictly by record, they should have been swapped with Clemson and GT should have had to deal with the Canes - but also been the top seed in their group. Since everyone's got different ideas to fix it, here's mine - it's this simple. Teams would still only have to play four games at the most, and likely enough that would never happen. Plus: major, major advantage for the high seeds. It was totally sweet to win the ACC championship last year as a six seed, but baseball teams play wayyy more games than any other sport against the rest of the conference - it sucks being on the other side of the coin, dominating a 30-game season, and then losing out on the championship because why? losing to FSU for one, but that wouldn't have mattered if Miami hadn't choked against BC.
So that would be a good way to fix things up, and you could even shorten the tournament by a day if you felt like it. Or not. It's flexible.
Anyway, the ACC tournament being over, that means it's Big Show time, and thusly, here is the bracket. It was a foregone conclusion that UVA would host a regional, but Tim Weiser and the rest of the selection committee displayed their astounding ignorance (or outright contempt of UVA) yet again in declaring UVA the 5th seed behind Coastal Carolina. Here's the man hisself, 'splaining hisself:
Assuming for a minute that there's absolutely no regional bias in the committee and they are purely robots assessing the raw data in front of them, the only conclusion is that the committee considers every conference equal for the purposes of winning conference championships (after all, Florida, which is not the SEC champion, is seeded higher than Coastal.) They also appear to weight non-conference schedule - not performance, mind you, and especially not head-to-head results, just schedule - higher than any other factor. Coastal plays an OOC schedule heavy on the tournament hopefuls to make up for the fact that they play in a conference that sucks donkey balls. We do the opposite. Out of 58 games we've played, a majority of them are ACC games, so you'd think this would carry some weight. It does not.
Fortunately, this is nothing like being shipped to bloody damn California. Given the regional we got handed, it's not really a screwjob, just an obnoxious insult. Tomorrow, you get a breakdown of the regional, which includes Friday's opponent VCU, St. John's as the three-seed, and Ole Miss, which totes a trailer-load of story lines into Charlottesville this weekend. You might remember them from last year. If you don't, don't worry about it - they haven't forgotten us.
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Let's end on a high note. Would a national championship suffice? Rowing is not the highest-profile sport in existence, but hey, they all count the same when you're adding up NCAA titles. Muchos felicitaciones to the ladies of the rowing team, who brought home UVA's second national title this season, placing their trophy next to the one for soccer in the ever-burgeoning trophy case. This is a team with a small but special corner of appreciation on this blog, as the crew team is the only one at UVA whose roster also includes graduates of my high school alma mater as well. High praise is in order for the lady rowers, and especially GP South Blue Devils Caroline Sweeny and Lauren Shook, both of whom rowed for the Second Varsity 8 at the NCAA championships. Many huzzahs.
And I realize this is going to make half of you gag and the other half just straight-out barf, but I was happy to see that Duke ended up winning the tournament. My Michigan-fan contempt for Notre Dame overrides my UVA-fan contempt for Duke. And besides, Michigan is tossing around the idea of going varsity in lacrosse and if they do, it's going to be enough of a challenge to recruit against Notre Dame without a trophy in South Bend, let alone with one. Anyway, Duke had by far the better season and was by far the more deserving team. So, uh, yay. Ewwww, but yay.
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As for baseball, the ACC tournament could have gone better than it did, but it certainly could have gone worse. UVA finished 2-1 in pool play, but the tiebreaker sent Florida State to the championship game, since the one loss was to FSU. I think given the format it's a tiebreaker that makes sense, but naturally now that we're on the losing end of it, everyone thinks this format stinks and who came up with this shit anyway? Admittedly, it's a weird format. Double-elimination is the usual standard in baseball; a traditional bracket doesn't work well since baseball, more than any other sport, can turn on a roll of the dice or a hot pitcher. Look at San Diego State last year. Not a great team overall, but their one ace gave them a legit shot at knocking off the ACC champion. So most tournaments are double-elimination, but the ACC coaches didn't like it because it burns up everybody's bullpen and leaves them with tired arms for the NCAA regionals the following week.
This isn't a great format either, given that in four years it's turned out the following championship matchups:
2 vs. 8
1 vs. 6
1 vs. 6
5 vs. 7
The bottom half of the pools (5 through 8) have made the championship more than the top half (1 through 4.) That's not really the sign of a good format. Not only that, but the divisions really screw up the seeding. We did end up beating Miami, but if seeded strictly by record, they should have been swapped with Clemson and GT should have had to deal with the Canes - but also been the top seed in their group. Since everyone's got different ideas to fix it, here's mine - it's this simple. Teams would still only have to play four games at the most, and likely enough that would never happen. Plus: major, major advantage for the high seeds. It was totally sweet to win the ACC championship last year as a six seed, but baseball teams play wayyy more games than any other sport against the rest of the conference - it sucks being on the other side of the coin, dominating a 30-game season, and then losing out on the championship because why? losing to FSU for one, but that wouldn't have mattered if Miami hadn't choked against BC.
So that would be a good way to fix things up, and you could even shorten the tournament by a day if you felt like it. Or not. It's flexible.
Anyway, the ACC tournament being over, that means it's Big Show time, and thusly, here is the bracket. It was a foregone conclusion that UVA would host a regional, but Tim Weiser and the rest of the selection committee displayed their astounding ignorance (or outright contempt of UVA) yet again in declaring UVA the 5th seed behind Coastal Carolina. Here's the man hisself, 'splaining hisself:
There is very little difference between the teams among the top 8 national seeds. Each of these teams has achieved a high level of success during the year and making distinctions between them is incredibly difficult. Ultimately, the committee makes secret ballot votes to rank teams based on a variety of factors (e.g., RPI, regular season championship, conference championship, non-conference performance, etc.) to seed these elite teams. Note, however, that the committee does not consider coaches polls or media polls as a factor in their decision making.OK, RPI is a factor, yes, yes: Coastal is somehow higher despite playing in a one-bid league instead of an eight-bid league. Of course, UVA is higher than 3rd-seeded Florida, but whatever. Regular season championship: well, both Coastal and UVA have this in hand, as does Florida. I'd like to think that the ACC outweighs the Big South in the committee's minds, but apparently not. Conference championship: Coastal has this, but again - Big South. Non-conference performance. Well, Coastal did pretty well, except for one little hiccup. They did schedule better teams than we did for the most part, but we did actually schedule them, after all, and it's hard to get the committee to count our fall scrimmage series.
Assuming for a minute that there's absolutely no regional bias in the committee and they are purely robots assessing the raw data in front of them, the only conclusion is that the committee considers every conference equal for the purposes of winning conference championships (after all, Florida, which is not the SEC champion, is seeded higher than Coastal.) They also appear to weight non-conference schedule - not performance, mind you, and especially not head-to-head results, just schedule - higher than any other factor. Coastal plays an OOC schedule heavy on the tournament hopefuls to make up for the fact that they play in a conference that sucks donkey balls. We do the opposite. Out of 58 games we've played, a majority of them are ACC games, so you'd think this would carry some weight. It does not.
Fortunately, this is nothing like being shipped to bloody damn California. Given the regional we got handed, it's not really a screwjob, just an obnoxious insult. Tomorrow, you get a breakdown of the regional, which includes Friday's opponent VCU, St. John's as the three-seed, and Ole Miss, which totes a trailer-load of story lines into Charlottesville this weekend. You might remember them from last year. If you don't, don't worry about it - they haven't forgotten us.
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Let's end on a high note. Would a national championship suffice? Rowing is not the highest-profile sport in existence, but hey, they all count the same when you're adding up NCAA titles. Muchos felicitaciones to the ladies of the rowing team, who brought home UVA's second national title this season, placing their trophy next to the one for soccer in the ever-burgeoning trophy case. This is a team with a small but special corner of appreciation on this blog, as the crew team is the only one at UVA whose roster also includes graduates of my high school alma mater as well. High praise is in order for the lady rowers, and especially GP South Blue Devils Caroline Sweeny and Lauren Shook, both of whom rowed for the Second Varsity 8 at the NCAA championships. Many huzzahs.
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