pack it in

So a lot of things went right yesterday.  Finally.  Not everything went right.  But finally, enough went right to cover up the mistakes.  It's amazing how you create your own breaks by playing well enough to earn them.  And whatever things did go wrong, 33-6 lets you ignore them.  Or at least rationalize them.

Of all the impressive things from yesterday, maybe the best of all is this: a coaching staff that kept a team interested in football even through a season-wrecking six-game losing streak.  They stayed interested enough that just maybe the fans will stay interested too.  On second thought, scratch the maybe; they played well enough that some people are actually talking about winning out.

That wouldn't be happening if the Hoos had squeaked through, Penn State-style.  Not only did a 2-6 team upset a likely bowl-bound one, they won by enough that fans of the formerly 2-6 and now 3-6 team are thinking about a bowl game themselves.  Huh?  It's crazy.  But maybe not that crazy.

That's how good the game really was.  Not just good - maybe sustainably good.  When you own the trenches, you can dictate a lot of things to a lot of teams.  When a team is motivated and angry, it matters.  When they're motivated and confident, it matters even more.  In a twisted way, it's enough to piss you off even more about the last couple games, because, like, where could we be if that had gone like this?

As they say, though, it is what it is.  The real beauty of this is that for a week, we're allowed our crazy thoughts.  Maybe it's really stupid to think we could win out and scrape our way into a bowl.  Maybe we shouldn't even be so damn excited about the thin possibility being 6-6 in the first place.  At least for a week, though, even if it's crazy it's conceivable.

Further things in brief:

-- There's no other way to open up actual game analysis than with the defense.  Of all the stats to emerge from this game, the best one is that they just about doubled their season sack total.  All season we've been fretting that poor pass rushing would lead to coverage breakdowns and vice versa.  Sometimes it's been true.  On Saturday it was the opposite.  The defensive line owned the trenches for every second they were on the field.  Lemme repeat that, because it's the #1 reason that it's OK to dream about winning the next three games: The defensive line owned the trenches for every second they were on the field.  And their job was made easier because the secondary played a very nice game, even inducing a coverage sack or two.  Sacks were recorded by Jake Snyder, Mike Moore (who singlehandedly destroyed one NC State drive), Brent Urban, Will Hill, and two by Chris Brathwaite.  Look at that list again; what do you notice about them?  Give yourself a cookie if you noticed that two-thirds of the sacks belong to defensive tackles.  Give yourself another one if you noticed how spread-out the action was.  This adds up to total domination.

-- And then, after snagging only one interception all season, the secondary broke out with three.  It's amazing how easy it can be to win a game when you're the one getting the takeaways.  One each for Maurice Canady, Ant Harris, and Eli Harold, the latter being another example of that synergy between pressure and coverage.  If there were coverage sacks, that was a pressure interception, and fine job on that play as well by Daquan Romero who was right on the ball and batted it to Harold.

-- Are the coaches slowly pulling back on the RB platoon?  Kevin Parks got 25 carries to Perry Jones's 11, and was extremely effective carrying the water.  Then again, Jones had six receptions, so it's not like he's being phased out.

-- Speaking of platoons.  Stop it.  You already know which position I mean.  Mike Rocco was 12-for-23 and probably would've been better if he wasn't always coming into the game cold.  Phillip Sims' 8-for-10 day could've been a lot bigger with all the snaps.  I know Rocco came right in and directed a TD drive, but this doesn't work overall.  It screws with the receivers, trying to adjust to two different ball styles.  It screws with the quarterbacks, taking their heads in and out of the game.  I know that both Rocco and Sims can make throws the other can't, but a better solution would be to teach Sims the throws he can't make.

-- Mike Glennon spent a lot of the day picking himself up off his ass, and the NC State O-line spent the whole day getting owned.  But I nominate Wolfies' cornerback Dontae Johnson as the guy who'd most like to forget Saturday.  Johnson was the guy burned on Tim Smith's long touchdown, Johnson was the guy that Perry Jones(!) blew up next to the sideline, and Johnson was one of the guys that Mike Rocco(!) juked off his soles to convert a 3rd-and-10 with his feet.  Ouch.

-- I freaking love safeties.  The eff-you-up-in-the-end-zone kind.  Best play in football.

Prediction summary:

-- Phillip Sims completes either less than 50% or more than 60% of his passes.  I wish he had thrown more so that it didn't look like I got this on a small-sample-size technicality, but he was 8-for-10.

-- UVA doesn't have a run play of more than 15 yards.  Actually there were several.  Hell, Rocco almost had one.

-- Sims is sacked at least three times.  Sims was under more pressure than I'd have liked to see, but ultimately State only registered one sack.  That's pretty good considering the Pack's solid pass rush.

-- Our running backs average at least half a yard per carry more than State's.  By, like, so much.

-- At least twice during this game, something happens on special teams that makes me try and reach through the monitor to strangle someone.  This one's a yes, and here's why.  Number one was a missed field goal from 22 yards, which might've been prevented by taking a delay-of-game penalty.  Even so you can't miss those.  Can't.  Number two was the punt where we got the ball back on a fumble.  That was the telltale sign that this was one of those days where everything just went our way, but it didn't have to be such a long return if a couple people had paid attention to the ball.  Ignoring the returner isn't exactly good fundamental football.  And the punt was terrible too.  Vozenilek had probably his worst punting day all season, in fact.

Another 3-for-5 puts me at 19-for-44, 43%.  It's a good thing I'm not betting on our games, cause I'm 0-7-2 ATS and 4-5 straight up.  Oh, how I hate being proven wrong.  Oh please do not do that to me again.  Please, Bre'r Fox, don't throw me in that ol' briar patch.

game preview: NC State

Date/Time: Sat., November 3; 12:30

TV: ACC Net., ESPN3

Record against the Pack: 21-34-1

Last meeting: NCSt. 28, UVA 14; 10/22/11, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA bye; UNC 43, NCSt. 35

Line: NC State by 10.5

Injury report:

Virginia -

OUT FOR SEASON
S Pablo Alvarez, DT Marco Jones, WR Mario Nixon

OUT
DE Diamonte Bailey, DE Billy Schautz

DOUBTFUL
None

QUESTIONABLE
RB Clifton Richardson

PROBABLE
DT David Dean, K Ian Frye, CB Drequan Hoskey

GOT THEIR ASSES SUSPENDED, WAY TO GO GUYS
FB LoVante' Battle, LB Henry Coley, TE Jeremiah Mathis

NC State -

OUT FOR SEASON
G Zach Allen, DT Jacob Kahut, LB Michael Peek, RB James Washington, DE Forrest West

OUT
CB Jarvis Byrd

DOUBTFUL
None

QUESTIONABLE
None

PROBABLE
None

If all had gone as it was supposed to, we'd either be bowl-eligible by now, or needing this one more to get there.  This has not happened.  The easier portion of the schedule has come and gone, and now the Hoos are staring down the barrel of a winless ACC season.  That would be something of a disaster, as it would also mean a 10-loss season, and regardless of whether you or I think it should, it would turn up the heat a notch on Mike London's seat.  The upcoming four-game stretch, therefore, is no longer about bowl eligibility and all about looking marginally respectable.  For a given definition of "respectable."

-- UVA run offense vs. NCSt run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 103 carries, 503 yards, 4.9 avg, 3 TDs
Perry Jones: 93 carries, 322 yards, 3.5 avg, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
128.13 yards/game, 3.74 yards/attempt
92nd of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)

NCSt defense:
138.0 yards/game, 3.74 yards/attempt
44th of 124 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)

Guess there's no need to overanalyze this one.  Based on past performance I calculate that UVA will average exactly 3.74 yards per carry on Saturday.

Maybe you want something more in depth, though.  The thing about NC State's run defense is that it would be absolutely horrible if they didn't have a very good, veteran defensive backfield.  Senior safeties Earl Wolff and Brandan Bishop are the team's tackle leaders, and you have to go all the way down to ninth on the tackles list before you find any defensive linemen.  Juston Burris is the team's fifth defensive back (and no, the Pack don't run a 3-3-5) and even he is ahead of the D-linemen.

When you have to rely so much on your back seven, you're going to get a lot of inconsistency, and that's what's happened.  Furthermore they've given up some big games to opposing running backs in their last three contests.  Giovani Bernard, Wes Brown, and Chris Thompson all ran for over 100+ yards.  That streak will end on Saturday, because all three had workhorse-level workloads, and UVA splits the carries too much for anyone to have 100 yards, short of there being an 80-yard play somewhere, which there won't.

Still, I expect to find at least a little bit of running room.  With Parks averaging almost five yards a carry, that hasn't been too much of a problem lately, and when you don't have a good defensive line you lose the advantage you might have against UVA's O-line.  The main concern I have is linebackers shooting gaps; Wake found ways to do this with some consistency last game, and State's LB Rickey Dowdy has nine TFL this season from the weak side.  Plus, Wolff and Bishop know what they're doing and won't be fooled by Phillip Sims's not-good play-fakes, making it all the more likely they'll be able to crash the front lines and hold running plays to minimum yardage.  Parks will get his yards (Jones I'm increasingly less sure about) but he'll have to grind them out.  I don't expect anything longer than about 15 yards at the most.

-- UVA pass offense vs. NCSt pass defense

Quarterback:
Phillip Sims: 84/155, 54.2%; 1,000 yards (exactly!), 7 TDs, 4 INTs; 6.45 avg.

Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 29 rec., 407 yards, 1 TD
Perry Jones: 28 rec., 258 yards, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
279.8 yards/game, 7.0 yards/attempt
72nd of 124 (national), 10th of 12 (ACC)

NCSt defense:
278.1 yards/game, 8.4 yards/attempt
115th of 124 (national), 11th of 12 (ACC)

This was not what I expected to see out of the Pack.  Before the season I pegged them as the top secondary in the conference; obviously that ain't true.  And those numbers are even more astounding considering that they actually have a pretty effective pass rush.  If they didn't have 24 sacks those numbers might even be worse.  (Yes, sacks end up in the rushing totals.  Still, all that pressure, you'd think it'd help with the rest of the operation.)

Clearly, this pass rush is the #1 concern.  Oday Aboushi and Morgan Moses have been absolutely brutal lately.  DE Darryl Cato-Bishop is the primary pass rush threat, but State has 13 different players with a sack.  UVA barely has half that many sacks, period.  DT T.Y. McGill can also be disruptive, and the Pack like to blitz as well.  Phillip Sims has been under a lot of pressure lately and doesn't handle the rush especially well - sometimes fine, sometimes not - so it'd be awfully nice if UVA can find a way to keep the grass stains off his shirt.

The other problem is that Sims and timing routes haven't been a happy combination.  Combine that with an inability to pass block for longer than 1.7 seconds, meaning deepish downfield routes don't have time to develop, and you see why the pass offense has been leading the all-out charge to the basement.

Out in the secondary, David Amerson has recovered somewhat from an absolutely horrible nationally televised season opener against Tennessee, and has four interceptions.  He's still a top corner, but prone to inexplicable breakdowns, probably because of his gambling.  He has so many picks - this year and last - because he breaks very well on the ball, but he's susceptible as hell to stop-and-go routes, and safeties Wolff and Bishop can sometimes be overaggressive against the run.

You'd think, therefore, that play-action would be a great way to beat the Pack.  You'd be right.  That being the case, let's hope Sims's play fakes have improved, because he can be awfully lazy with them.  Things could be good if they have.  That said, I'm at a loss what to expect here.  Mostly I expect the pass rush to fluster Sims, because I haven't seen a lot of evidence that our tackles are the NFL-ready machines we thought they were.  Beyond that, though, this is a very boom-or-bust matchup.  I have a feeling Sims will either be horrible or awesome.

-- NCSt run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Tony Creecy: 95 carries, 385 yards, 4.1 avg, 3 TDs
Shadrach Thornton: 59 carries, 298 yards, 5.1 avg, 2 TDs

NCSt offense:
122.38 yards/game, 3.30 yards/attempt
109th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
148.25 yards/game, 4.10 yards/attempt
63rd of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)

There are biblical names like David and Jacob which everyone knows and uses.  Then there's Shadrach Thornton, whose parents showed a very admirable attention to biblical detail.  I have no idea if his brothers are named Meshach and Abednego.

Thornton's presence on the field is the result of the Pack having to dig very deep to find some running backs.  James Washington missed a lot of time with an ankle injury, got back on the field against UNC, and promptly wrecked his knee.  And the Pack sat Mustafa Greene a while ago for being a twat and kicked him off the team a couple weeks ago for being a bigger twat.

That brings it down to Creecy and Thornton.  Thornton has the gaudier average, but a lot of that was racked up against The Citadel, and actual alive run defenses the last three weeks have shut him down.  Creecy will be the workback; he's a little bigger than Thornton, and the offense has been tilting in his direction lately, even when Washington was back.

NC State has a veteran interior line, which ought to be getting better results in the run game, but they're also not anyone's idea of all-conference players.  Not bad, not great, and the same holds true for the State backs, even before Washington and Greene left the scene.  The whole thing is straight vanilla: good enough to help supplement the pass game, and not much more.

Our own run defense will probably take a hit without Henry Coley.  I think there's a prevailing sentiment that we'll be OK, but I worry; Daquan Romero doesn't have half of Coley's experience.  I wouldn't be surprised to see State test Romero early, and run at his side to see what he's got.  Otherwise, we should be fine.  Believe it or not, this is a top-20 run defense in the country If You Take Out The Georgia Tech Game (a phrase I've used enough by now to officially deserve capitalization.)  As with most games this season, every time they run and don't pass, it's a tiny little win for us.

-- NCSt pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Mike Glennon: 191/330, 57.9%; 2,455 yards, 19 TDs, 9 INTs; 7.44 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Quintin Payton: 34 rec., 603 yards, 1 TD
Bryan Underwood: 28 rec., 460 yards, 10 TDs

NCSt offense:
306.9 yards/game, 7.4 yards/attempt
54th of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
208.6 yards/game, 6.8 yards/attempt
46th of 124 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)

If I didn't know any better, I'd say those were some damn good numbers for a 2-6 team.  The conventional wisdom is that a senior quarterback like Glennon will carve us up.  He might just do that, as I'm not sure the pass defense passes the eye test just yet.  The cold hard stats are very nice, but the defense has gotten burned a bit at very bad times.

NC State presents a challenge.  Few teams in the country pass more than they do; they're 13th in total pass attempts.  And they spread the ball around very well.  Like UVA, they use their running backs extensively (a potential point in our favor since our defense ought to be well-practiced against that stuff.)  Tight ends Mario Carter and Asa Watson have 18 and 16 catches, respectively, another test for newly minted starter Romero on the strong side.  And they have a deep corps of receivers.  When I saw that someone had 10 TD catches - that was the first thing that jumped off the stats page, for obvious reasons - I thought, "oh, a tall dude or a tight end or something."  Nope, it's Bryan Underwood; he's a leetle guy.  He, plus Quintin Payton and Tobais Palmer (every time I write this guy's name I think "damn typos" but no, it's Tobais) are all frequent targets of Glennon.  Payton is huge; the other two are small.

Glennon is coming off of a 467-yard performance against UNC, and he did it completing only 29 of 52 passes.  He might've topped 500, but this happened.  I wouldn't count on that as a defensive strategy, but it's nice to know we're not the only team in the ACC with that issue.

Not many teams we've played are willing to include so many players in the passing game.  That'll be the toughest test for this secondary of ours, plus Romero.  But the interesting part is this: the Pack are not very good at protecting Glennon (in fairness, a lot of pass attempts means a lot of sacks, so it's not a complete indictment of their O-line that they're near the bottom of the country in sacks allowed) and our coaches have been committing more playing time on the D-line to younger players with more explosiveness.  Eli Harold is listed as a starter, and Chris Brathwaite and David Dean (who got his first career sack against Wake Forest) have been making more appearances.  Pressure on Glennon is a must, obviously, or he'll pick us apart.  Probably he will at intervals here and there anyway, but there's a chance here to limit the damage.

-- Outlook

What I've just typed makes the game look winnable.  That is until you take into account our very special teams.  If we could get into a fair fight with our opponents we might at least be 4-4.  The offense isn't too functional, but if special teams didn't piss away half our games, the defense wouldn't always be given short fields to work with.  You'd like to hope the bye week was used to sharpen up the special teams focus and erase some of the physical and stupid mental mistakes, but evidence must be seen before we can declare it to be true.  Until then, it's safest to assume that unit will continue to shit the bed with the lights on.

-- Prediction summary

-- Phillip Sims completes either less than 50% or more than 60% of his passes.
-- UVA doesn't have a run play of more than 15 yards.
-- Sims is sacked at least three times.
-- Our running backs average at least half a yard per carry more than State's.
-- At least twice during this game, something happens on special teams that makes me try and reach through the monitor to strangle someone.

Final score: NCSt 26, UVA 13

-- Rest of the ACC

Florida State, North Carolina byes

Miami 30, Virginia Tech 12 (Thursday) - There's a very, very good chance VT will be fighting for bowl eligibility in our Thanksgiving matchup.

Georgia Tech at Maryland, 12:30 - Maryland's QB situation is like if we had to start Demeitre Brim at QB with Jake McGee as backup.  Only they had tried to redshirt the freshman linebacker they're putting under center, and would like, if possible, to redshirt the freshman tight end acting as backup.  And he'll still probably rack up 35 on GT's defense.

Boston College at Wake Forest, 3:30 - BC's win over Maryland last week, in which they killed off (no, not literally) the last surviving Maryland quarterback, put UVA right on the inside track for the ACC basement.

Clemson at Duke, 7:00 - Duke has never played in a prime time game because the last time they were good nobody had yet conceived of the idea that you could use electricity to light up the outdoors.  Both teams are attempting to keep pace in their respective division races, but Clemson actually needs the game more I cannot believe I just wrote that.

the virginia lions

You know how the saying goes.  Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.  Fool me like four or five times in a row into thinking improvement is just around the corner, and I am a Lions fan.  If you've ever wondered what it's like to be a fan of the Honolulu blue and silver, this is pretty much how it goes.  You just have to let the wishful side of you do all the thinking.  Just invent reasons why your football team isn't as bad as everyone thinks it is and then show up on the weekend, or the beginning of the season, with an optimistic smile on your face all set for its violent removal by another wasted day of watching them bumblefuck their way around the field.

At some point you'll show up on Sundays (Saturdays, whatever) with the understanding that instead of expecting anything fruitful, you'll just have yourself a nice cathartic couple of hours complaining about everything.  It's a new kind of fun, albeit somewhat more acceptable when the players are professionals.

No matter.  The only thing I'm disappointed in myself about is not realizing it sooner.  It's not like I haven't had like twenty years of practice - the signs should've been much more obvious.  Undisciplined shit doesn't just fix itself next week, especially when the coaches don't care about it.  The quarterback doesn't suddenly know the offense that he couldn't figure out last week.  During the game I tweeted that a great test of accountability would be whether or not Kyle McCartin played at all after picking up an extremely costly personal foul on our first kickoff.  Guess who played the very next kickoff?  Mike London claimed he should have been benched and it was his (London's) fault that McCartin went out there.  It's too late for that.

This isn't about Kyle McCartin, although that's not to exempt a senior from blame for taking a freshman penalty.  I don't care if it was an oversight on London's part and he meant to bench McCartin.  He didn't.  Meaning he had other things on his mind than fixing the team's most glaring and costly issue.  And apparently so did the guy to whom London has delegated special teams responsibility.  This is why I said we can't afford another week of Anthony Poindexter on special teams duty.  His unit just directly cost his team three points and he didn't give enough of a fuck to hold accountable the guy responsible.  It shouldn't have to be London's call to sit someone down.  Ultimately I think that is London shielding Dex from blame, which is at least more admirable than wringing your assistant out to dry.

So I see no reason why we should ever expect anything but more of the same.  You just got visual confirmation that it's all talk, all bluster and no action.  Week after week it's the same mistakes.  No lane responsibility.  No discipline.  The list of special teams disasters includes at least two penalties, two muffed punts, one 60-yard punt return given up, and one instance of taking the ball out of the end zone again only to trip over the 10-yard line.  The casualty: yet another check mark in the loss column, directly attributable to special teams.  And every week Poindexter is coaching the unit will be another week in which the best you can hope for out of the special teams will be that the margin of loss is so big that their undisciplined bullshit didn't matter.

Further reactions in brief:

-- It feels really good to see my faith in Chris Brathwaite paying off.  Nine tackles, two for loss, is a phenomenal game out of a defensive tackle.  Just a monster game.

-- Actually the defense in general is exempt from the rage machine this week.  Four PBUs for Drequan Hoskey, and 10 for the defense overall, plus Brathwaite's day, and 14 tackles out of Steve Greer; I don't have anything bad to say about the defense.  Obvious caveats about the level of competition apply, but the D played well.  It's a safe bet Wake would never have seen the end zone if they hadn't been set up on our own 16 yard line by you-know-what.

-- Does anyone still believe in the stupidity that is the godawful mistaken belief that whether or not Phillip Sims actually completes his downfield bombs, just the fact that he chucks them will loosen up defenses enough for us to run on them?  For one thing, Wake clearly had no respect for the passing game because they were shooting linebackers and safeties through the gaps all day long and stuffing the run game.  For another, Sims's play-fakes suck, so it's not like there's any good reason to respect the pass regardless.  It is bad for the offense when the quarterback arm-punts.  I feel like I should not have to say that, but then I feel like there are people who still need it said to them.

-- Something that doesn't usually make a blip on any radars but something that I liked: Jeremiah Mathis catches a pass from Sims about 12, 13 yards downfield, and immediately lunges forward.  Almost as immediately he's tackled, but the result of the play is 16 yards.  Watching receivers juke and shuffle immediately after a catch to try and get past a tackler is infuriating because it works maybe once in twenty times.  I watched Perry Jones (maybe it was Parks but I think it was Jones) catch a ball over the middle and immediately stop, with the idea that he was going to juke his defender out of his shorts.  Naturally he got tackled from behind.  Duh, there are other defenders back there and they're chasing you.  Run away from them, which is forward for more yardage.

-- Yes, we got horse-screwed on that fourth-down spot.

-- How do you know your year is going badly?  When the loudest cheer of the second half is for not carrying the ball out of the end zone.  That ought to sting the coaches a little.  On second thought, I bet the first time NC State kicks the ball over the goal line, our returner brings it out.  Things are not being taught.

On to the predictions:

-- Five yards a carry for Kevin Parks.  Uh, or half that.  Either way.

-- Parks both catches the most passes, and has the most carries, of any UVA back.  I should've stuck with most carries, as he had 10 to Jones's 7, but Jones caught five passes.

-- Tim Smith, in his welcome-back party, does not catch many passes (three at most) but one is a big one.  I'm giving myself this one even though he caught four, which is one more than three.  A 56-yarder on one of Sims's best throws of the day certainly counts.  (I continue to beat the drum that there's no such thing as a big YAC play without a very nice throw, and Sims hit him perfectly.)

-- Tanner Price completes fewer than 50% of his passes.  Price (or his receivers) was as bad as I expected, going 7-for-19.  How do you lose when your opposing quarterback goes 7-for-19?  Oh, right.

-- Brandon Terry, not Terence Davis, is Wake's leading receiver.  Terry caught just one pass, but it was for 41 yards and nobody else on Wake, except for one player (Lovell Jackson) caught more than one.  Do I give myself this one?  Yes - the point was that Davis was not a threat to the Hoos, but Terry was, and his big 41-yard catch was the one right after McCartin's PF penalty that set up Wake's first field goal.  People were way down on our safeties for that, but Terry is six-foot-bloody-five, and that play was unlikely to be stopped.

3-for-5 is not bad; it puts me at 16-for-39 for the season, which is 41%.  But my now-dead optimism stupidity has me at 4-4 on the game prediction season and 0-6-2 ATS.  I promise you I will never again pick the Hoos to win another game this season.  You can hold me to that.  They haven't played so as to deserve it.

Note: I've decided to shake things up a tad; for the rest of the season, except for the bye next week, I'll have my game reactions up on Sunday, and then Monday will be more of an everything-else day, including Blogpoll ballots and Senior Seasons.  It used to be more that way anyway, and kind of evolved out of it, and I think it works better this way.

the recruit: Donta Wilkins

Name: Donta Wilkins
Position: DT
Hometown: Dumfries
School: Potomac
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 315

24/7: 90, four stars; #24 DT, VA #15
ESPN: 74, three stars; #71 OG, VA #32, Atl. #132
Rivals: 5.5, three stars; VA #25
Scout: three stars; #60 DT

Other offers: Virginia Tech, Penn State, Miami, NC State, North Carolina, Boston College, Mississippi State, Maryland

How would it sound to have a little beef on the defensive line?  Right now the only 300-pounder in the rotation is Justin Renfrow, who for now is seeing his time gradually dwindle in favor of Chris Brathwaite.  The guys we have now are perfectly good players, but perfectly good players with 20 or 30 extra pounds each would also be nice, and that's what we'll get in pairs with Wilkins and Tyrell Chavis.

The various recruiting sites don't agree exactly on Wilkins's weight (they never do) but there's one thing they do agree on: he's 300 pounds, easy.  That size is likely a big part of the reason why so many ACC schools went after Wilkins despite a general consensus among the recruiting sites of a lowish three-star rating.  Wilkins carries that weight well and there's little doubt in my mind he'll end up with a playing weight in the same general range.  He's got the thickness, and, despite a good height of 6'3", looks to have a low center of gravity that'll make him damn hard to move off the line once he converts some fat to muscle.

Wilkins committed in June at the front end of a one-week commit-apalooza, shortly following a visit to Charlottesville during which it was widely thought he wouldn't.  Now, is that commitment solid?  Yes; I don't think Wilkins will change his mind, but the question is fair - Wilkins maintained even at the time of his verbal that he'd take official visits to UNC, PSU, and Michigan State and hasn't changed his mind three and a half months later, although for reasons which are easy to guess, he's replaced PSU with Miami.  (I suspect, by the way, that the Mississippi State offer listed by most of the sites is actually that Michigan State offer - "MSU" has a way of getting lost in translation at times.)  Whether these visits take place remains to be seen; London sometimes has a way of dissuading them.

Right now, UVA has a nice little conveyor belt setup at DT, which is a good situation.  Will Hill graduates this year, Renfrow and Brent Urban next year, Brathwaite the year after that.  As they move on, guys like David Dean and Vincent Croce will start to take over.  There's enough talent here that Wilkins can take a couple years, much like Dean and Croce are doing, to get himself conditioned and ready.  But the nice thing about DT is that it requires a lot of bodies, so Wilkins can play right when he's ready, but no sooner.  Between he and Chavis, Wilkins projects a little closer to three-tech than Chavis does, but both could play nose tackle.  And no, despite ESPN's scouting report claiming Wilkins would make a better offensive guard than defensive tackle (they're very lukewarm on Wilkins, which based on his offer list I don't agree with), I don't see him getting moved to that side.  If that were the plan, the coaches wouldn't be casually chasing a few other offensive linemen to join the class.

questions at camp for the defense

Continuing the series from yesterday with the camp issues for the defense.

1. Can Eli Harold be a terror on the edge?

The least proven ability on the entire defense is pass-rushing.  Your starting defensive ends are Billy Schautz and Jake Snyder.  Schautz has an outstanding head for football, but isn't athletic enough to speed-rush the quarterback, or powerful enough to bull-rush.  When he gets by his man, it's through technique and footwork.  Snyder is a big, strong-side run stopper, whose job is to hold the edge, and his backup, Brent Urban, is the same.

Mike London moved Ausar Walcott down from linebacker - for real this time, not as a wake-up call after offseason foolishness - in an effort to provide some speed-rush for pressuring the QB.  But not one of these DEs has the raw athletic freakishness of top recruit Eli Harold.  Harold will get a chance right off the bat to make his presence felt in the backfield.  And truthfully, if he isn't yet up to the chore, this season's pass rush will be inconsistent and not terribly productive.

2.  Is Steve Greer the real deal?

Greer was one of two Hoos named to the preseason all-ACC team.  He's not very big and not very fast, but he's developed into a crucial player - captain on the defense, unquestioned leader, and team tackling champ for two of his three years on the field.  And probably this year, too.  He's always been able to work quietly in the background, though, or at least, as much as you can do that at middle linebacker.  Being named one of the top three linebackers in the league is a high honor, but it means teams are gonna be gameplanning for him.  He'll have a lot on his plate no longer being backed up by senior safeties, and UVA's defense is going to go as he goes.  That's likely to be great news.

3.  Do the defensive backs know what's about to hit them?

Folks had complaints about the play of our defensive backfield at times last year, but they still were mostly seniors, and the plaudits for Chase Minnifield outweighed any complaints about safeties sometimes giving up big plays.

As veteran as that group was, though, this group is greener.  Let's put it this way: Tre Nicholson is a true sophomore and has six times as many starts as every other defensive back on the roster combined - which is because the only other player to have started a game is Rijo Walker, with two.  The other safety, Anthony Harris, is as green as they come.

At cornerback, it looks like a three-man rotation (a familiar setup - you'll remember how much time Dom Joseph saw despite not technically being a starter) with Nicholson as the veteran leader and Drequan Hoskey and Brandon Phelps rotating.  Hoskey - for now - has a leg up.  There's a ton of talent in the cornerback group, but barely enough experience to fill a paper bag.

And if that weren't enough, it seems a near certainty that a true freshman will be forced onto the field, and it's anyone's guess who that might be.  Defensive back might be the position that draws the most scrutiny in the whole camp.

4.  Am I right about Chris Brathwaite?

I've long felt that Brathwaite is a sleeper talent in the truest sense of the word.  I hate when people use the word "sleeper" or "diamond in the rough" because usually they do it wrong, but Brathwaite is the type the terms are meant for.  And this is a possible breakout year for the big, strong DT from New York.  Brathwaite is poised to leapfrog Justin Renfrow on the depth chart and earn a starting role alongside Will Hill, which is really great because I think there comes a time when Brathwaite is seen stepping on some right guard's face on the way to eating his quarterback as a light tea-time snack.  Practically every time Brathwaite has been mentioned on this blog in the past it's accompanied by effusive praise for his future prospects, and now that he's getting first-team reps, I'm excited to find out if this praise is well-placed.

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Get excited yo: next week I kick off the ACC previews.  As always, FOV readers will be the best-informed UVA fans on the competition.  Can't get this stuff anywhere else, and you will be able to talk intelligently about the rest of the ACC and where the Hoos fit into the pecking order.

Oh, and finally, speaking of kickoffs, as the Olympics begin their two-week run tonight, check out the list of UVA athletes participating in the Games in London, as put together by Streaking the Lawn.  Included are no fewer than three former Cavalier of the Year nominees as well; there's a reason that award exists.

housekeeping

I need to update both the recruiting board and the depth chart, so that's exactly what we're doing today. Recruiting board first:

- Dropped the following players: OT Evan Mulrooney (Maryland commit - we never offered), TE Brian Miller (Boston College commit), CB Jeremiah Hendy (Maryland commit), OT Conor Hanratty (Notre Dame commit, and that was pretty much a foregone conclusion), and DE Giorgio Newberry (has never really talked UVA.)

- Moved CB Demetrious Nicholson from blue to yellow. Bummer. UVA seems to be dropping here.

- Moved DE Corey Marshall and DE Norkeithus Otis from red to yellow. UVA's chances with Marshall still look slim, with VT and Michigan both pursuing him very hard, but we are in a top-four group and he didn't commit to Tech at the VT spring game. So either Tech is slow-playing him and telling him to be patient with committing, or he's serious about checking out the other schools on his list. Michigan is coming hard and I bet he goes to their barbecue on May 22nd - another "great news if he doesn't commit" date.

- Added OT Jake Goins to yellow. He'd be blue, but then he'd probably already be a Hokie if they actually wanted him this year. His offer there is for a grayshirt.

You'll notice some of the names are now highlighted in orange - these are the top-of-the-wishlist guys. The guys you need to really put a stamp of approval on a recruiting class. I'd be ecstatic, frankly, to get half of them, but if we can't get at least two it'll be a disappointment. Nobody in red is highlighted because frankly that's while-we're-at-it-I'd-like-a-pony territory, and orange doesn't show up too good on red anyway.

A little feedback on that would be appreciated, by the way, because I can't decide if it's better to have the wishlist guys in orange at the top of the color section or just at the top of their positions. I went with the latter for now because it's less work.

Also, I said I'd update the depth chart, and I did. Last year's seniors have now disappeared and the depth chart reflects the ground truth heading into fall camp. Thoughts on that because that's why this blog is here:

- Marc Verica, as mentioned, is the clear starter, and the race is behind him. That designation has an expiration date of mid-October, and you can bet the staff will be scrutinizing Verica in the season's early going to make sure it's worth it to keep sending him out there.

- Red flags should be going up in your head when you look at the running backs. Perry Jones topping the chart at RB is a surprise. It's not a good sign that the two-deep at RB comprises 1) the football Muggsy Bogues and 2) a guy who's made a long career out of getting passed up on the depth chart. I dunno, maybe Jones blew away the coaches with his moves and football IQ and Keith Payne is finally living up to the Chuck Norris-like status he was assigned as a recruit, but one thing we definitely didn't hear out of spring camp is how the running backs were really stealing the show. Reading between the lines here, I'd hazard a guess that this is more about what the competition (Torrey Mack, mainly) didn't show in spring camp. Expect this battle to start totally anew in the fall with all-new horses in Dominique Wallace, Kevin Parks, and Khalek Shepherd.

- Wide receiver will be a position of strength if Tim Smith is as good as advertised. Kris Burd is a good receiver but not the kind you game-plan for; Smith is the only such player in that group.

- Don't be fooled by the apparent lack of depth at guard; I'm pretty much only going by what they say, and they don't list a whole lot of guards. A lot of guys are just listed as OL and they basically end up at tackle until we learn otherwise, because tackle is what they were recruited as. They have to go somewhere, and the byproduct of that is, tackle looks really heavy and guard looks really thin, when that's not the case.

- On the other hand, I've been telling you we're really heavy at linebacker and really thin in the secondary: a side effect of London's decision to move a lot of players a slot closer to the line of scrimmage. This illustrates it pretty nicely. Four linebackers, including incoming guy Chris Brathwaite because I think DE is where he'll end up, got moved down to the D-line, so there really isn't a major glut of linebackers, but we can't even go three deep in the secondary until the freshmen show up, and then only just barely, and also only because Javanti Sparrow got shifted to the defensive side of the ball. It's no accident that three of our first seven commitments for 2011 (counting Kyrrel Latimer) are defensive backs.

- London omitted the kickers from the depth chart; it's clearly still open season on that competition as well.

the recruit: Christopher Brathwaite

Name: Christopher Brathwaite
Position: OLB
Hometown: Brooklyn, NY
School: Holy Cross (Queens)
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 250

ESPN: NR
Rivals: NR
Scout: NR

There ain't much out there on Brathwaite, to be honest, which is a shame, because irregardless (THAT'S NOT A WORD) of his future football prospects at UVA, it's clear we're getting a solid person. He's already qualified, which should come as no surprise: Holy Cross is a distinctive private school, and you might have heard of some of their more well-known recent alums: Kevin Ogletree and some basketball player named Sylven Landesberg.

So those concerns aside, what are we getting on the football field? It'll all depend on how well Brathwaite makes the transition from the defensive line to linebacker. Brathwaite is a "classic tweener": short for a defensive end, and biggish for the standard 4-3 linebacker. Ah, but we play a 3-4, as you well know, and Al Groh sees Brathwaite in the Darryl Blackstock/Clint Sintim role: rush linebacker that often plays with a hand on the ground.

Trouble is, Brathwaite plays defensive tackle at Holy Cross. As defensive tackles are not called upon to do any pass coverage or any linebackery stuff, Brathwaite knows he has a learning curve ahead of him. 250 pounds, however, is not big enough to play DT at the college level, and if he were likely to get substantially bigger he'd have more I-A offers than the one he currently holds, so this was going to be the case no matter what.

As the above link will tell you, he's been tearing up the camp scene, and garnering words of praise from Mike Farrell, who has this to say:

On defense, Flushing (N.Y.) Holy Cross defensive end Christopher Brathwaite, coming off his MVP performance at the NIKE Camp in Virginia, dominated the one-on-ones. He has superior strength, a very quick first step and a tenacity and motor you can’t teach. Only Vardaro was a match for him on the day.

"Vardaro" is Boston College commit and offensive tackle Robert Vardaro, FWIW. The dude is also 6'5", 307. If it takes an extra 57 pounds to match up with our boy here, I think I like that.

Brathwaite's almost certainly looking at a redshirt year, so he can learn how to play linebacker. And it's probably fair to wonder what might become of him if Groh is let go after this year and a new regime installs a totally different defense. But I have to admit this: During the course of researching this post, Brathwaite quickly became a personal favorite. I'm on record as being mildly annoyed about all these guys who nobody but us recruited, and Rutgers really was the only other I-A team looking at Brathwaite and they hadn't offered. And sure, when it comes to covering recruiting, certain things are ubiquitous and unavoidable. Effusive quotes from the high school coach. "Academics are a priority." You see it so often, you stop noticing. For whatever reason - maybe it's the high school, maybe it's the camp performances or the really mean look on his face in all the pictures - I drank the Kool-Aid here, and I see Brathwaite as the Kevin Parks of the defense: a guy who'd be way up everyone's charts if he were differently sized. Brathwaite underscores how uniquely tough it can be to recruit at UVA: the school is one of a select few that actually does more than pay lip service to the notion of a student-athlete, to the extent of frustrating many fans. I think in Brathwaite, Al Groh has found precisely what he's looking for in all his recruits.