So a lot of things went right yesterday. Finally. Not everything went right. But finally, enough went right to cover up the mistakes. It's amazing how you create your own breaks by playing well enough to earn them. And whatever things did go wrong, 33-6 lets you ignore them. Or at least rationalize them.
Of all the impressive things from yesterday, maybe the best of all is this: a coaching staff that kept a team interested in football even through a season-wrecking six-game losing streak. They stayed interested enough that just maybe the fans will stay interested too. On second thought, scratch the maybe; they played well enough that some people are actually talking about winning out.
That wouldn't be happening if the Hoos had squeaked through, Penn State-style. Not only did a 2-6 team upset a likely bowl-bound one, they won by enough that fans of the formerly 2-6 and now 3-6 team are thinking about a bowl game themselves. Huh? It's crazy. But maybe not that crazy.
That's how good the game really was. Not just good - maybe sustainably good. When you own the trenches, you can dictate a lot of things to a lot of teams. When a team is motivated and angry, it matters. When they're motivated and confident, it matters even more. In a twisted way, it's enough to piss you off even more about the last couple games, because, like, where could we be if that had gone like this?
As they say, though, it is what it is. The real beauty of this is that for a week, we're allowed our crazy thoughts. Maybe it's really stupid to think we could win out and scrape our way into a bowl. Maybe we shouldn't even be so damn excited about the thin possibility being 6-6 in the first place. At least for a week, though, even if it's crazy it's conceivable.
Further things in brief:
-- There's no other way to open up actual game analysis than with the defense. Of all the stats to emerge from this game, the best one is that they just about doubled their season sack total. All season we've been fretting that poor pass rushing would lead to coverage breakdowns and vice versa. Sometimes it's been true. On Saturday it was the opposite. The defensive line owned the trenches for every second they were on the field. Lemme repeat that, because it's the #1 reason that it's OK to dream about winning the next three games: The defensive line owned the trenches for every second they were on the field. And their job was made easier because the secondary played a very nice game, even inducing a coverage sack or two. Sacks were recorded by Jake Snyder, Mike Moore (who singlehandedly destroyed one NC State drive), Brent Urban, Will Hill, and two by Chris Brathwaite. Look at that list again; what do you notice about them? Give yourself a cookie if you noticed that two-thirds of the sacks belong to defensive tackles. Give yourself another one if you noticed how spread-out the action was. This adds up to total domination.
-- And then, after snagging only one interception all season, the secondary broke out with three. It's amazing how easy it can be to win a game when you're the one getting the takeaways. One each for Maurice Canady, Ant Harris, and Eli Harold, the latter being another example of that synergy between pressure and coverage. If there were coverage sacks, that was a pressure interception, and fine job on that play as well by Daquan Romero who was right on the ball and batted it to Harold.
-- Are the coaches slowly pulling back on the RB platoon? Kevin Parks got 25 carries to Perry Jones's 11, and was extremely effective carrying the water. Then again, Jones had six receptions, so it's not like he's being phased out.
-- Speaking of platoons. Stop it. You already know which position I mean. Mike Rocco was 12-for-23 and probably would've been better if he wasn't always coming into the game cold. Phillip Sims' 8-for-10 day could've been a lot bigger with all the snaps. I know Rocco came right in and directed a TD drive, but this doesn't work overall. It screws with the receivers, trying to adjust to two different ball styles. It screws with the quarterbacks, taking their heads in and out of the game. I know that both Rocco and Sims can make throws the other can't, but a better solution would be to teach Sims the throws he can't make.
-- Mike Glennon spent a lot of the day picking himself up off his ass, and the NC State O-line spent the whole day getting owned. But I nominate Wolfies' cornerback Dontae Johnson as the guy who'd most like to forget Saturday. Johnson was the guy burned on Tim Smith's long touchdown, Johnson was the guy that Perry Jones(!) blew up next to the sideline, and Johnson was one of the guys that Mike Rocco(!) juked off his soles to convert a 3rd-and-10 with his feet. Ouch.
-- I freaking love safeties. The eff-you-up-in-the-end-zone kind. Best play in football.
Prediction summary:
-- Phillip Sims completes either less than 50% or more than 60% of his passes. I wish he had thrown more so that it didn't look like I got this on a small-sample-size technicality, but he was 8-for-10.
-- UVA doesn't have a run play of more than 15 yards. Actually there were several. Hell, Rocco almost had one.
-- Sims is sacked at least three times. Sims was under more pressure than I'd have liked to see, but ultimately State only registered one sack. That's pretty good considering the Pack's solid pass rush.
-- Our running backs average at least half a yard per carry more than State's. By, like, so much.
-- At least twice during this game, something happens on special teams that makes me try and reach through the monitor to strangle someone. This one's a yes, and here's why. Number one was a missed field goal from 22 yards, which might've been prevented by taking a delay-of-game penalty. Even so you can't miss those. Can't. Number two was the punt where we got the ball back on a fumble. That was the telltale sign that this was one of those days where everything just went our way, but it didn't have to be such a long return if a couple people had paid attention to the ball. Ignoring the returner isn't exactly good fundamental football. And the punt was terrible too. Vozenilek had probably his worst punting day all season, in fact.
Another 3-for-5 puts me at 19-for-44, 43%. It's a good thing I'm not betting on our games, cause I'm 0-7-2 ATS and 4-5 straight up. Oh, how I hate being proven wrong. Oh please do not do that to me again. Please, Bre'r Fox, don't throw me in that ol' briar patch.
Showing posts with label snyder. Show all posts
Showing posts with label snyder. Show all posts
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
the recruit: Jack English
Name: Jack English
Position: DE(?)
Hometown: Richmond
School: St. Christopher's
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 250
24/7: 78, two stars; #82 SDE, VA #47
ESPN: 73, three stars; #79 DT, VA #35, Atlantic #158
Rivals: 5.5, three stars; VA #27
Scout: two stars
Other offers: Virginia Tech
You've figured out what Mike London likes to do on the recruiting trail by now, right? If he's gonna go out of state for a player, he's already got a pretty good idea (if not a rock-solid one) where that guy will slot. Instate, he wants all the best players, but he'll also offer a guy if he's just kind of athletey, looks good at camp, and work out a position later. Hence, Jack English (among others.) I don't think the coaches have any idea where he'll play when he gets here. I don't think they particularly care; the idea is that English can be useful at any number of positions.
English has drawn a lot of comparisons to Thompson Brown, who projected similarly and came from the same school. Multiple recruiting sites can't help but mention Brown when they're talking about English. As ESPN points out, English is bigger than Brown - Brown was almost as tall, but not as bulky, and could never have been imagined as a defensive tackle. But Brown was a better athlete. Really, it's almost a perfect illustration of a weakside defensive end (Brown) vs. strongside (English.) Brown had more of that explosiveness you want in a pass-rusher, but English projects better as far as adding bulk.
It's easy to see English as a tight end; he's big enough now. I'd even say there's an outside chance he could grow into offensive tackle territory, but I don't see it. Much more likely is seeing him at strongside defensive end or defensive tackle. Jake Snyder or Brent Urban are your models, though English doesn't quite have Urban's size, and Urban weighs 280 pounds and could probably go for 10 more if he had to; English probably tops out around 280 when all's said and done. Ultimately I'd guess English will end up playing SDE in the role filled by Jake Snyder right now: run-stopper and obnoxious Gojira when quarterbacks are trying to throw bubble screens. Almost like a defensive tackle playing on the end.
Let's be clear, though: this role isn't in the near future. English needs a healthy dose of good weight before he's ready for defensive line duty in college. And you don't recruit a guy like English with the idea he'll be an immediate contributor. English had to hit the summer camps before he earned any offers, his first one coming from Virginia Tech the weekend before he camped in Charlottesville. (Which is where he also earned his UVA offer, and committed to it very shortly thereafter.) The scouting services all have some pretty consistent low rankings, and the offer list corroborates. Even though SDE looks like English's best position, keep in mind that Michael Moore is currently awaiting Jake Snyder's graduation, and will be occupying the starting role for a while if things work out like they should.
The more likely scenario is that the coaches pick a spot for English when he arrives next fall - probably defensive end but you never know, they pulled a surprise and put Andre Miles-Redmond at DT so they can be tricky like that. After that, though, they'll bury him on the depth chart for such time as is necessary to get him good and ready, and then put him wherever he's needed most. That could be tight end, similar to how Jeremiah Mathis and Rob Burns ended up there. That could be DE, or DT. At this point English is probably three years from seeing the field in a non-special teams role, minimum, and projecting that far when you don't know what position you're projecting is awfully tough. It's not the most exciting thing for fans, since it sort of requires us to forget about a guy for a while. Coaches love that kind of flexibility, though: English represents, among other things, a protective security blanket against surprise attrition.
Position: DE(?)
Hometown: Richmond
School: St. Christopher's
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 250
24/7: 78, two stars; #82 SDE, VA #47
ESPN: 73, three stars; #79 DT, VA #35, Atlantic #158
Rivals: 5.5, three stars; VA #27
Scout: two stars
Other offers: Virginia Tech
You've figured out what Mike London likes to do on the recruiting trail by now, right? If he's gonna go out of state for a player, he's already got a pretty good idea (if not a rock-solid one) where that guy will slot. Instate, he wants all the best players, but he'll also offer a guy if he's just kind of athletey, looks good at camp, and work out a position later. Hence, Jack English (among others.) I don't think the coaches have any idea where he'll play when he gets here. I don't think they particularly care; the idea is that English can be useful at any number of positions.
English has drawn a lot of comparisons to Thompson Brown, who projected similarly and came from the same school. Multiple recruiting sites can't help but mention Brown when they're talking about English. As ESPN points out, English is bigger than Brown - Brown was almost as tall, but not as bulky, and could never have been imagined as a defensive tackle. But Brown was a better athlete. Really, it's almost a perfect illustration of a weakside defensive end (Brown) vs. strongside (English.) Brown had more of that explosiveness you want in a pass-rusher, but English projects better as far as adding bulk.
It's easy to see English as a tight end; he's big enough now. I'd even say there's an outside chance he could grow into offensive tackle territory, but I don't see it. Much more likely is seeing him at strongside defensive end or defensive tackle. Jake Snyder or Brent Urban are your models, though English doesn't quite have Urban's size, and Urban weighs 280 pounds and could probably go for 10 more if he had to; English probably tops out around 280 when all's said and done. Ultimately I'd guess English will end up playing SDE in the role filled by Jake Snyder right now: run-stopper and obnoxious Gojira when quarterbacks are trying to throw bubble screens. Almost like a defensive tackle playing on the end.
Let's be clear, though: this role isn't in the near future. English needs a healthy dose of good weight before he's ready for defensive line duty in college. And you don't recruit a guy like English with the idea he'll be an immediate contributor. English had to hit the summer camps before he earned any offers, his first one coming from Virginia Tech the weekend before he camped in Charlottesville. (Which is where he also earned his UVA offer, and committed to it very shortly thereafter.) The scouting services all have some pretty consistent low rankings, and the offer list corroborates. Even though SDE looks like English's best position, keep in mind that Michael Moore is currently awaiting Jake Snyder's graduation, and will be occupying the starting role for a while if things work out like they should.
The more likely scenario is that the coaches pick a spot for English when he arrives next fall - probably defensive end but you never know, they pulled a surprise and put Andre Miles-Redmond at DT so they can be tricky like that. After that, though, they'll bury him on the depth chart for such time as is necessary to get him good and ready, and then put him wherever he's needed most. That could be tight end, similar to how Jeremiah Mathis and Rob Burns ended up there. That could be DE, or DT. At this point English is probably three years from seeing the field in a non-special teams role, minimum, and projecting that far when you don't know what position you're projecting is awfully tough. It's not the most exciting thing for fans, since it sort of requires us to forget about a guy for a while. Coaches love that kind of flexibility, though: English represents, among other things, a protective security blanket against surprise attrition.
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
weekend review
Funny thing. We lost on Saturday. I know that, you know that. The scoreboard says so, the articles say so, and the fanbase is certainly acting like it. So why don't I feel like we lost?
For one, it's not like we were supposed to win. And it never felt like we were out of it. At least not to me. Mike London is right when he says there are a lot of positives to take away. At the risk of sounding like Pete Hughes, a couple plays here and there and suddenly it's a whole new ballgame. It's a huge week-to-week improvement to be able to point to a few plays instead of, like, all of them.
And that improvement has got me as optimistic as if we were coming off a win. I wrote on just such a topic for InsideTheACC this week. This is supposed to be a rebuilding year, right? Last year was a fun little surprise. This year is supposed to be a step back for reasons largely already detailed. And the Hoos are 2-2 anyway, which I said is right where we want to be.
Now take a look at the schedule ahead and tell me that doesn't look like fun. UVA can come out of the next four games with a 6-2 record. That would probably make people too happy, but it's not like I'm gonna wish for 5-3 just for the sake of level heads. The great thing about the potential four-game winning streak staring us in the face is that it would bring that coveted bowl eligibility nice and early.
Now that I've done everything humanly possible to jinx the pants off of the whole season, let's get into the game itself in more detail here.
-- After the Penn State game I took a look at what Penn State fans were saying about the game at their various Internet gathering places. One of the themes was "argh why does UVA have all these Godzilla defensive linemen knocking everything down??" (Lots of capital letters and bad language were added to the theme after the blocked extra point.) This week, in the game recap, TCU's Casey Pachall specifically said he was throwing the ball higher to avoid swatdowns by defensive linemen, something that was probably emphasized in film sessions and hammered home when Jake Snyder batted down an early Pachall throw. Casey Pachall is six foot five! That makes it official: this is an asset going forward. Several of the quarterbacks we face in the remainder of the season, including Louisiana Tech's Colby Cameron, are more like 6'2". We might have to get a count going of rejected pass attempts.
-- I almost made it this far without saying the word "quarterback," though I wasn't talking about ours. In a development that's likely to get me throttled by one of my legion of adoring yet frustrated fans, you'll have to wait til tomorrow to get a full rundown of that. The situation has gotten to the point where it's worth a full post. I'll leave it at this for a teaser: Phillip Sims throws one of the nicest damn spirals you'll ever see in college, so it's understandable that there's a clamor to see him play more. It looks purty whether it's headed directly for the intended receiver's hands or the turf ten yards in front of him.
-- I was asstacular once again on my predictions this week, but I do deserve credit for one thing: I said Bill Lazor should attack the edges on the running game and damn if that didn't work. Every running play that was worth a damn went outside, and every one that went inside got stuffed.
-- The most underrated reason we lost? Maybe the actual biggest reason? TCU's secret kickoff weapon. You know it's not a good day in the field position game when it's the fourth quarter and the announcer says, "UVA starts this drive on their own 22, which is their best field position of the day." That's awful. It takes a really, really good, big-play-driven offense to consistently score when it has to go more than 83 yards on average to get to the end zone.
-- Several things were done well on Saturday. Many things need to get better. One thing has to get a lot better: Luke Bowanko's shotgun snaps. We were lucky that one of them didn't end up rolling the wrong way downfield with the quarterback frantically chasing it. It's obvious Bowanko isn't comfortable with the concept. I'm no O-line coach but I would guess it means he's rushing the snap and trying to get to his blocking assignment quickly, and not following through correctly as a result. Most of the snaps were high and required a little hop from the quarterback to snag them, and all of them floated in at half speed. That throws the timing off, badly. The even worse part is, the offense looked and felt more effective from the shotgun than from under center, meaning you can see the potential that's there if the snaps improve.
-- More on this and what it means tomorrow, but the most disappointing thing was this: Being three scores from the lead with nine and a half minutes to go is not an insurmountable obstacle. Obviously TCU didn't think it was, because they put together a quick insurance drive to get the points back that Phillip Sims put on the board. But our coaches treated it like one. That was very telling as it regards to the quarterback situation, but, again: tomorrow.
Oh well. Prediction review:
-- Not counting obvious attempts to mercifully run down the clock, the playcalling split for both teams will be higher than 60-40 in favor of the pass. A quick look at the stats would seem to prove me wrong, here, but a closer look is required. Two of TCU's "run plays" were kneeldowns, and five of them were Pachall scrambles. That pushes them up to at least 64-36. The same holds true for UVA; when you move sacks and scrambles into the passing category, the balance tips way, way over toward the pass. More like 65-35.
-- Both quarterbacks will complete better than 65% of their passes. Well, Pachall held up his end of the bargain. I can think of three outright drops by UVA receivers that would've gotten Rocco closer, but as the stats will show he fell short by a wide margin.
-- Casey Pachall will top 350 yards. I really thought our secondary did at least a decent job, and maybe holding Pachall to 305 yards is proof? Especially since over 100 of them came on two plays. Like I said: much better to be able to point to a couple plays instead of the whole game when you're looking for ways to improve.
-- UVA's running game again fails to generate 4 yards a carry. No, Mike Rocco scrambling for 27 yards does not count as "UVA's running game." However, Parks's big play does. Take out that and I get it right.....but it's not fair to do that.
-- More of Rocco's passes are caught by TEs and RBs than WRs. Should've said "Sims and Rocco" but either way, I am thoroughly right here.
A 2-for-5 showing moves me to 7-for-21. Also damn you TCU for scoring that last touchdown; if I'd put money on this game the way I did on the Michigan game I'd be even more pissed, but as it is the only consequence is me dropping to 0-2-2 against the spread, but moving to 4-0 overall on game predictions.
***************************************************
You get this week's Blogpoll ballot and that'll be it for today. I have a lot to go over re: the ballot, so once again, Senior Seasons gets moved to another day. It'll probably be at the bottom of tomorrow's quarterback manifesto. Das balloten:
So this week I move to the system that'll determine the ballot from here on out. (Hence the large number of weird-looking changes. If you want to suggest a change, I'm all ears, but it has to be based on somebody having a better or worse resume than I gave them credit for, not "why did so-and-so drop so far?") I'm a long-winded ol' bastard who enjoys hearing himself talk (type) and am also fully onboard with the spirit of transparency that the Blogpoll operates on, so this is how it works:
-- Step 1: Determine an eligible pool of teams. This is done by selecting a record that teams under consideration must have, or be better than. This week, that's 2-1. You had to be 2-1 or better (3-1, 3-0, 4-0, whatever) in order to be under consideration. To further narrow things down, unless a team was 4-0, they had to have a win over a Big Five team (the Big East is no longer a power conference) in order to be considered. (And if a team was 4-0, they had to not be named "UTSA" and have two of their wins be over Division II teams.) This put 37 teams into contention (and removed a couple stalwarts like Oklahoma and Michigan State. They'll be back though). That's a little bit on the large side, but well within a normal range regardless.
-- Step 2: Each team's slate of games is ranked from 1 to whatever. Step 2 guidelines:
-- Step 5: Fudge factor is applied if I think the system gave me a stupid result. Most often this happens when two teams are very close, but the lower-ranked team beat the higher-ranked one. (Yes, I'm aware there's at least two instances of this in this week's ballot. I'm OK with those. Stanford is being punished for beating San Jose State by three and Oregon State only has two games on their resume.)
So that is how the ballot is arrived at. And that's why the Blogpoll is better than any of the "real" ranking polls; nobody in those polls will ever tell you their rationale behind their ballot. Particularly not the coaches' poll. I like this system because it fully considers every team's entire resume.
For one, it's not like we were supposed to win. And it never felt like we were out of it. At least not to me. Mike London is right when he says there are a lot of positives to take away. At the risk of sounding like Pete Hughes, a couple plays here and there and suddenly it's a whole new ballgame. It's a huge week-to-week improvement to be able to point to a few plays instead of, like, all of them.
And that improvement has got me as optimistic as if we were coming off a win. I wrote on just such a topic for InsideTheACC this week. This is supposed to be a rebuilding year, right? Last year was a fun little surprise. This year is supposed to be a step back for reasons largely already detailed. And the Hoos are 2-2 anyway, which I said is right where we want to be.
Now take a look at the schedule ahead and tell me that doesn't look like fun. UVA can come out of the next four games with a 6-2 record. That would probably make people too happy, but it's not like I'm gonna wish for 5-3 just for the sake of level heads. The great thing about the potential four-game winning streak staring us in the face is that it would bring that coveted bowl eligibility nice and early.
Now that I've done everything humanly possible to jinx the pants off of the whole season, let's get into the game itself in more detail here.
-- After the Penn State game I took a look at what Penn State fans were saying about the game at their various Internet gathering places. One of the themes was "argh why does UVA have all these Godzilla defensive linemen knocking everything down??" (Lots of capital letters and bad language were added to the theme after the blocked extra point.) This week, in the game recap, TCU's Casey Pachall specifically said he was throwing the ball higher to avoid swatdowns by defensive linemen, something that was probably emphasized in film sessions and hammered home when Jake Snyder batted down an early Pachall throw. Casey Pachall is six foot five! That makes it official: this is an asset going forward. Several of the quarterbacks we face in the remainder of the season, including Louisiana Tech's Colby Cameron, are more like 6'2". We might have to get a count going of rejected pass attempts.
-- I almost made it this far without saying the word "quarterback," though I wasn't talking about ours. In a development that's likely to get me throttled by one of my legion of adoring yet frustrated fans, you'll have to wait til tomorrow to get a full rundown of that. The situation has gotten to the point where it's worth a full post. I'll leave it at this for a teaser: Phillip Sims throws one of the nicest damn spirals you'll ever see in college, so it's understandable that there's a clamor to see him play more. It looks purty whether it's headed directly for the intended receiver's hands or the turf ten yards in front of him.
-- I was asstacular once again on my predictions this week, but I do deserve credit for one thing: I said Bill Lazor should attack the edges on the running game and damn if that didn't work. Every running play that was worth a damn went outside, and every one that went inside got stuffed.
-- The most underrated reason we lost? Maybe the actual biggest reason? TCU's secret kickoff weapon. You know it's not a good day in the field position game when it's the fourth quarter and the announcer says, "UVA starts this drive on their own 22, which is their best field position of the day." That's awful. It takes a really, really good, big-play-driven offense to consistently score when it has to go more than 83 yards on average to get to the end zone.
-- Several things were done well on Saturday. Many things need to get better. One thing has to get a lot better: Luke Bowanko's shotgun snaps. We were lucky that one of them didn't end up rolling the wrong way downfield with the quarterback frantically chasing it. It's obvious Bowanko isn't comfortable with the concept. I'm no O-line coach but I would guess it means he's rushing the snap and trying to get to his blocking assignment quickly, and not following through correctly as a result. Most of the snaps were high and required a little hop from the quarterback to snag them, and all of them floated in at half speed. That throws the timing off, badly. The even worse part is, the offense looked and felt more effective from the shotgun than from under center, meaning you can see the potential that's there if the snaps improve.
-- More on this and what it means tomorrow, but the most disappointing thing was this: Being three scores from the lead with nine and a half minutes to go is not an insurmountable obstacle. Obviously TCU didn't think it was, because they put together a quick insurance drive to get the points back that Phillip Sims put on the board. But our coaches treated it like one. That was very telling as it regards to the quarterback situation, but, again: tomorrow.
Oh well. Prediction review:
-- Not counting obvious attempts to mercifully run down the clock, the playcalling split for both teams will be higher than 60-40 in favor of the pass. A quick look at the stats would seem to prove me wrong, here, but a closer look is required. Two of TCU's "run plays" were kneeldowns, and five of them were Pachall scrambles. That pushes them up to at least 64-36. The same holds true for UVA; when you move sacks and scrambles into the passing category, the balance tips way, way over toward the pass. More like 65-35.
-- Both quarterbacks will complete better than 65% of their passes. Well, Pachall held up his end of the bargain. I can think of three outright drops by UVA receivers that would've gotten Rocco closer, but as the stats will show he fell short by a wide margin.
-- Casey Pachall will top 350 yards. I really thought our secondary did at least a decent job, and maybe holding Pachall to 305 yards is proof? Especially since over 100 of them came on two plays. Like I said: much better to be able to point to a couple plays instead of the whole game when you're looking for ways to improve.
-- UVA's running game again fails to generate 4 yards a carry. No, Mike Rocco scrambling for 27 yards does not count as "UVA's running game." However, Parks's big play does. Take out that and I get it right.....but it's not fair to do that.
-- More of Rocco's passes are caught by TEs and RBs than WRs. Should've said "Sims and Rocco" but either way, I am thoroughly right here.
A 2-for-5 showing moves me to 7-for-21. Also damn you TCU for scoring that last touchdown; if I'd put money on this game the way I did on the Michigan game I'd be even more pissed, but as it is the only consequence is me dropping to 0-2-2 against the spread, but moving to 4-0 overall on game predictions.
***************************************************
You get this week's Blogpoll ballot and that'll be it for today. I have a lot to go over re: the ballot, so once again, Senior Seasons gets moved to another day. It'll probably be at the bottom of tomorrow's quarterback manifesto. Das balloten:
From Old Virginia Ballot - Week 4
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -- |
| 2 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish |  1 |
| 3 | Florida St. Seminoles | 2 |
| 4 | LSU Tigers | 2 |
| 5 | Georgia Bulldogs | 4 |
| 6 | South Carolina Gamecocks | 7 |
| 7 | Florida Gators |  -5 |
| 8 | Oregon Ducks | 2 |
| 9 | Kansas St. Wildcats | 8 |
| 10 | TCU Horned Frogs | 5 |
| 11 | UCLA Bruins | 9 |
| 12 | Texas Longhorns | -- |
| 13 | Oregon St. Beavers | -- |
| 14 | Ohio St. Buckeyes | -7 |
| 15 | Arizona St. Sun Devils | -- |
| 16 | Clemson Tigers | -8 |
| 17 | Northwestern Wildcats | 6 |
| 18 | USC Trojans | 4 |
| 19 | Louisville Cardinals | -1 |
| 20 | Stanford Cardinal | -9 |
| 21 | Arizona Wildcats | -2 |
| 22 | Ohio Bobcats | 3 |
| 23 | Miami Hurricanes | -- |
| 24 | Iowa St. Cyclones | -3 |
| 25 | Virginia Tech Hokies | -- |
| Dropouts: Oklahoma Sooners, Michigan St. Spartans, West Virginia Mountaineers, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | ||
SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »
-- Step 1: Determine an eligible pool of teams. This is done by selecting a record that teams under consideration must have, or be better than. This week, that's 2-1. You had to be 2-1 or better (3-1, 3-0, 4-0, whatever) in order to be under consideration. To further narrow things down, unless a team was 4-0, they had to have a win over a Big Five team (the Big East is no longer a power conference) in order to be considered. (And if a team was 4-0, they had to not be named "UTSA" and have two of their wins be over Division II teams.) This put 37 teams into contention (and removed a couple stalwarts like Oklahoma and Michigan State. They'll be back though). That's a little bit on the large side, but well within a normal range regardless.
-- Step 2: Each team's slate of games is ranked from 1 to whatever. Step 2 guidelines:
- Wins are always ranked above losses, no matter how competitive the loss or ugly the win. This minimizes later juxtapositions of Team A's wins to Team B's losses and allows for an apples to apples comparison.
- If a team has had a bye week, the bye is placed exactly in the middle, or if we're in an even-numbered week, one below the middle. This week, byes are #3 of 4. Again allowing an apples to apples comparison, and giving all teams with fewer games than weeks the same amount of "credit" for their byes.
- Generally, of course, beating a Big Five team is better than beating a mid-major is better than beating a I-AA team, but I also look at it in terms of what you should and should not do. For example, let's say you're Mississippi State (who came in 30th this week.) You should beat Jackson State by 47; you should not beat Troy by only 6. (Not if you want to be ranked, that is. Therefore the Jackson State game is Miss State's third-best, and the Troy game is their worst. These get looked at fresh each week, so if Troy goes on a Sun Belt rampage and ends up 10-2, that game will move up.
- It's better to beat a good team by a little than a mediocre or bad team by a lot.
- If margins of victory and opponent strength are similar, it's better to have a low-scoring game than a high-scoring game. Example: in considering two 21-point wins, 24-3 is better than 35-14 is better than 49-28.
- When I get to the point where I have to compare wins to losses, I break it up into four categories, in order from best to worst: good wins, good losses, bad wins, bad losses.
- In the section where byes are involved, byes are ranked just like a game. For example, it's probably better to have had a bye than to have beaten Army by one lousy point. Seven of the 37 teams have had byes so far, and they stretch from #25 to #31 in the ranking. Those teams get the average of that, which is 28. Yes, this punishes byes. It should. 4-0 is better than 3-0, 3-1 is better than 2-1.
-- Step 5: Fudge factor is applied if I think the system gave me a stupid result. Most often this happens when two teams are very close, but the lower-ranked team beat the higher-ranked one. (Yes, I'm aware there's at least two instances of this in this week's ballot. I'm OK with those. Stanford is being punished for beating San Jose State by three and Oregon State only has two games on their resume.)
So that is how the ballot is arrived at. And that's why the Blogpoll is better than any of the "real" ranking polls; nobody in those polls will ever tell you their rationale behind their ballot. Particularly not the coaches' poll. I like this system because it fully considers every team's entire resume.
Friday, July 27, 2012
questions at camp for the defense
Continuing the series from yesterday with the camp issues for the defense.
1. Can Eli Harold be a terror on the edge?
The least proven ability on the entire defense is pass-rushing. Your starting defensive ends are Billy Schautz and Jake Snyder. Schautz has an outstanding head for football, but isn't athletic enough to speed-rush the quarterback, or powerful enough to bull-rush. When he gets by his man, it's through technique and footwork. Snyder is a big, strong-side run stopper, whose job is to hold the edge, and his backup, Brent Urban, is the same.
Mike London moved Ausar Walcott down from linebacker - for real this time, not as a wake-up call after offseason foolishness - in an effort to provide some speed-rush for pressuring the QB. But not one of these DEs has the raw athletic freakishness of top recruit Eli Harold. Harold will get a chance right off the bat to make his presence felt in the backfield. And truthfully, if he isn't yet up to the chore, this season's pass rush will be inconsistent and not terribly productive.
2. Is Steve Greer the real deal?
Greer was one of two Hoos named to the preseason all-ACC team. He's not very big and not very fast, but he's developed into a crucial player - captain on the defense, unquestioned leader, and team tackling champ for two of his three years on the field. And probably this year, too. He's always been able to work quietly in the background, though, or at least, as much as you can do that at middle linebacker. Being named one of the top three linebackers in the league is a high honor, but it means teams are gonna be gameplanning for him. He'll have a lot on his plate no longer being backed up by senior safeties, and UVA's defense is going to go as he goes. That's likely to be great news.
3. Do the defensive backs know what's about to hit them?
Folks had complaints about the play of our defensive backfield at times last year, but they still were mostly seniors, and the plaudits for Chase Minnifield outweighed any complaints about safeties sometimes giving up big plays.
As veteran as that group was, though, this group is greener. Let's put it this way: Tre Nicholson is a true sophomore and has six times as many starts as every other defensive back on the roster combined - which is because the only other player to have started a game is Rijo Walker, with two. The other safety, Anthony Harris, is as green as they come.
At cornerback, it looks like a three-man rotation (a familiar setup - you'll remember how much time Dom Joseph saw despite not technically being a starter) with Nicholson as the veteran leader and Drequan Hoskey and Brandon Phelps rotating. Hoskey - for now - has a leg up. There's a ton of talent in the cornerback group, but barely enough experience to fill a paper bag.
And if that weren't enough, it seems a near certainty that a true freshman will be forced onto the field, and it's anyone's guess who that might be. Defensive back might be the position that draws the most scrutiny in the whole camp.
4. Am I right about Chris Brathwaite?
I've long felt that Brathwaite is a sleeper talent in the truest sense of the word. I hate when people use the word "sleeper" or "diamond in the rough" because usually they do it wrong, but Brathwaite is the type the terms are meant for. And this is a possible breakout year for the big, strong DT from New York. Brathwaite is poised to leapfrog Justin Renfrow on the depth chart and earn a starting role alongside Will Hill, which is really great because I think there comes a time when Brathwaite is seen stepping on some right guard's face on the way to eating his quarterback as a light tea-time snack. Practically every time Brathwaite has been mentioned on this blog in the past it's accompanied by effusive praise for his future prospects, and now that he's getting first-team reps, I'm excited to find out if this praise is well-placed.
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Get excited yo: next week I kick off the ACC previews. As always, FOV readers will be the best-informed UVA fans on the competition. Can't get this stuff anywhere else, and you will be able to talk intelligently about the rest of the ACC and where the Hoos fit into the pecking order.
Oh, and finally, speaking of kickoffs, as the Olympics begin their two-week run tonight, check out the list of UVA athletes participating in the Games in London, as put together by Streaking the Lawn. Included are no fewer than three former Cavalier of the Year nominees as well; there's a reason that award exists.
1. Can Eli Harold be a terror on the edge?
The least proven ability on the entire defense is pass-rushing. Your starting defensive ends are Billy Schautz and Jake Snyder. Schautz has an outstanding head for football, but isn't athletic enough to speed-rush the quarterback, or powerful enough to bull-rush. When he gets by his man, it's through technique and footwork. Snyder is a big, strong-side run stopper, whose job is to hold the edge, and his backup, Brent Urban, is the same.
Mike London moved Ausar Walcott down from linebacker - for real this time, not as a wake-up call after offseason foolishness - in an effort to provide some speed-rush for pressuring the QB. But not one of these DEs has the raw athletic freakishness of top recruit Eli Harold. Harold will get a chance right off the bat to make his presence felt in the backfield. And truthfully, if he isn't yet up to the chore, this season's pass rush will be inconsistent and not terribly productive.
2. Is Steve Greer the real deal?
Greer was one of two Hoos named to the preseason all-ACC team. He's not very big and not very fast, but he's developed into a crucial player - captain on the defense, unquestioned leader, and team tackling champ for two of his three years on the field. And probably this year, too. He's always been able to work quietly in the background, though, or at least, as much as you can do that at middle linebacker. Being named one of the top three linebackers in the league is a high honor, but it means teams are gonna be gameplanning for him. He'll have a lot on his plate no longer being backed up by senior safeties, and UVA's defense is going to go as he goes. That's likely to be great news.
3. Do the defensive backs know what's about to hit them?
Folks had complaints about the play of our defensive backfield at times last year, but they still were mostly seniors, and the plaudits for Chase Minnifield outweighed any complaints about safeties sometimes giving up big plays.
As veteran as that group was, though, this group is greener. Let's put it this way: Tre Nicholson is a true sophomore and has six times as many starts as every other defensive back on the roster combined - which is because the only other player to have started a game is Rijo Walker, with two. The other safety, Anthony Harris, is as green as they come.
At cornerback, it looks like a three-man rotation (a familiar setup - you'll remember how much time Dom Joseph saw despite not technically being a starter) with Nicholson as the veteran leader and Drequan Hoskey and Brandon Phelps rotating. Hoskey - for now - has a leg up. There's a ton of talent in the cornerback group, but barely enough experience to fill a paper bag.
And if that weren't enough, it seems a near certainty that a true freshman will be forced onto the field, and it's anyone's guess who that might be. Defensive back might be the position that draws the most scrutiny in the whole camp.
4. Am I right about Chris Brathwaite?
I've long felt that Brathwaite is a sleeper talent in the truest sense of the word. I hate when people use the word "sleeper" or "diamond in the rough" because usually they do it wrong, but Brathwaite is the type the terms are meant for. And this is a possible breakout year for the big, strong DT from New York. Brathwaite is poised to leapfrog Justin Renfrow on the depth chart and earn a starting role alongside Will Hill, which is really great because I think there comes a time when Brathwaite is seen stepping on some right guard's face on the way to eating his quarterback as a light tea-time snack. Practically every time Brathwaite has been mentioned on this blog in the past it's accompanied by effusive praise for his future prospects, and now that he's getting first-team reps, I'm excited to find out if this praise is well-placed.
*****************************************
Get excited yo: next week I kick off the ACC previews. As always, FOV readers will be the best-informed UVA fans on the competition. Can't get this stuff anywhere else, and you will be able to talk intelligently about the rest of the ACC and where the Hoos fit into the pecking order.
Oh, and finally, speaking of kickoffs, as the Olympics begin their two-week run tonight, check out the list of UVA athletes participating in the Games in London, as put together by Streaking the Lawn. Included are no fewer than three former Cavalier of the Year nominees as well; there's a reason that award exists.
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
the recruit: Mario Nixon
Name: Mario Nixon
Position: WR/DB
Hometown: Norfolk
School: Norfolk Christian
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 215
24/7: 83; three stars; #132 WR; VA #25
ESPN: 75; three stars; #55 TE; VA #30; #150 Atlantic Region
Rivals: 5.6; three stars; #97 WR; VA #17
Scout: three stars; #94 WR
Other offers: Virginia Tech, NC State, Vanderbilt, Navy
This is why people follow recruiting. It's like a little soap opera sometimes, only, one that's testosteronically acceptable. Nixon committed to Virginia Tech in May, not long after two of his teammates (Wil Wahee and Kwontie Moore) committed to UVA. My theory at the time, which I still think was reasonable, was that Nixon knew ahead of time his buddies were likely to go to UVA; he wanted to play with them, but once they made their commitments and he knew for sure they would go to UVA, and still he preferred VT, that's when he decided to take his plunge as well.
His teammates were having none of this, though. Courtnye Wynn committed to UVA later in the summer, and Nixon's three teammates put on the full-court press. Nixon even showed up at one of UVA's fall camp practices, which really set the rumor mill on fire. Not long after that, he flipped his commitment, causing Hokie fans to either to claim they didn't need him, or had pulled his offer (as was purportedly also the case with Dominique Terrell, you know, whatever), or snark about broken promises (this latter of which conveniently forgets about Darius Redman.)
So that was fun, stealing recruits from Tech and all. With Nixon on board, UVA ended up with the Norfolk Christian grand slam. Kwontie Moore is the star; Nixon and Wynn come in a little behind. In Nixon's case, the recruiting services are astoundingly in agreement. Three stars each, a very similar rating, and all drop him into about the same ranking slot for both his position and his state. This isn't usually coincidence, so Nixon's potential is pretty well-established.
Nixon is one of a number of recruits in the class who comes in as an athlete-type without a set position; at his height, he's an unlikely cornerback, so wide receiver or safety are the likely landing spots. ESPN seems to think he can develop into a tight end, which is a natural thing to think about a guy who's already 6'4-6'5" and at least 210 pounds. Myself, I'm not sure about this; in my rather amateurish opinion, I don't see Nixon adding the necessary poundage for tight end. He's too tall and not really athletic enough for that height for cornerback, and ESPN's evaluation implies he doesn't have the speed for safety. So I think he'll end up as a possession receiver. In this he has the chance to excel, particularly if ESPN is correct about route-running being a strength of his. His height makes him a natural.
Nixon probably gets a redshirt year to - at the very least - sort out his position. Wherever he ends up there's too much competition to say he's likely to stand out from the crowd enough to get any playing time as a freshman, though he's a possible candidate for coverage teams. He's the tallest wide-receiver-type in this class, though, and of the current receivers, only Matt Snyder and Bobby Smith are taller. So Nixon, assuming he's a WR, will stand out from the crowd a bit. Nixon could be a more-athletic Snyder; obviously he needs just a world of polishing and practice before he's at that level, but I think you have to love the idea of Nixon as a guy with potential to move the chains and make catches over the middle.
Position: WR/DB
Hometown: Norfolk
School: Norfolk Christian
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 215
24/7: 83; three stars; #132 WR; VA #25
ESPN: 75; three stars; #55 TE; VA #30; #150 Atlantic Region
Rivals: 5.6; three stars; #97 WR; VA #17
Scout: three stars; #94 WR
Other offers: Virginia Tech, NC State, Vanderbilt, Navy
This is why people follow recruiting. It's like a little soap opera sometimes, only, one that's testosteronically acceptable. Nixon committed to Virginia Tech in May, not long after two of his teammates (Wil Wahee and Kwontie Moore) committed to UVA. My theory at the time, which I still think was reasonable, was that Nixon knew ahead of time his buddies were likely to go to UVA; he wanted to play with them, but once they made their commitments and he knew for sure they would go to UVA, and still he preferred VT, that's when he decided to take his plunge as well.
His teammates were having none of this, though. Courtnye Wynn committed to UVA later in the summer, and Nixon's three teammates put on the full-court press. Nixon even showed up at one of UVA's fall camp practices, which really set the rumor mill on fire. Not long after that, he flipped his commitment, causing Hokie fans to either to claim they didn't need him, or had pulled his offer (as was purportedly also the case with Dominique Terrell, you know, whatever), or snark about broken promises (this latter of which conveniently forgets about Darius Redman.)
So that was fun, stealing recruits from Tech and all. With Nixon on board, UVA ended up with the Norfolk Christian grand slam. Kwontie Moore is the star; Nixon and Wynn come in a little behind. In Nixon's case, the recruiting services are astoundingly in agreement. Three stars each, a very similar rating, and all drop him into about the same ranking slot for both his position and his state. This isn't usually coincidence, so Nixon's potential is pretty well-established.
Nixon is one of a number of recruits in the class who comes in as an athlete-type without a set position; at his height, he's an unlikely cornerback, so wide receiver or safety are the likely landing spots. ESPN seems to think he can develop into a tight end, which is a natural thing to think about a guy who's already 6'4-6'5" and at least 210 pounds. Myself, I'm not sure about this; in my rather amateurish opinion, I don't see Nixon adding the necessary poundage for tight end. He's too tall and not really athletic enough for that height for cornerback, and ESPN's evaluation implies he doesn't have the speed for safety. So I think he'll end up as a possession receiver. In this he has the chance to excel, particularly if ESPN is correct about route-running being a strength of his. His height makes him a natural.
Nixon probably gets a redshirt year to - at the very least - sort out his position. Wherever he ends up there's too much competition to say he's likely to stand out from the crowd enough to get any playing time as a freshman, though he's a possible candidate for coverage teams. He's the tallest wide-receiver-type in this class, though, and of the current receivers, only Matt Snyder and Bobby Smith are taller. So Nixon, assuming he's a WR, will stand out from the crowd a bit. Nixon could be a more-athletic Snyder; obviously he needs just a world of polishing and practice before he's at that level, but I think you have to love the idea of Nixon as a guy with potential to move the chains and make catches over the middle.
Monday, September 19, 2011
weekend review
Well, all the excitement over ACC expansion pretty much pre-empted any thoughts I had on the UNC game. Here's the summary: I don't think it was as bad as it felt at times. I think I just watched UNC run another end-around for sixteen yards about ten minutes ago, so that wasn't too exciting. But other than having a few holes exposed in the defense, that game was a few badly executed plays away from being a near-even battle. In the end the better team executed and UVA did not, but there are a lot of signs of progress. The easiest one to spot: Last year we lost at home by 34; this year we lost on the road by 11. I'll try to sneak in a few more observations as I run down the prediction summary.
-- UVA's three top running backs will split the carries about evenly.
We're getting to that point, I think, but a little more slowly than I was thinking. Not a true prediction since Kevin Parks got almost half the running back carries, but Clifton Richardson is slowly catching up anyway.
-- None will go over 60 yards rushing.
The running game was impressively productive, with the RBs getting almost six yards a carry. Parks busted the prediction by going for 98. This bodes very well for the future.
-- The running game will include a lot of plays that are technically passes, like screens and shovel passes.
No shovel passes. But. The running backs accounted for 29 actual carries and six receptions, and Lazor also tried out Dominique Terrell and Jeremiah Mathis on screens. I'm giving myself this one. Halfheartedly, but I'm doing it.
-- At least three players have four receptions each.
Yes (Kris Burd, Matt Snyder, and Perry Jones), and what's more the spirit of this prediction was basically that Lazor was going to have Rocco spread the ball around a ton, more so than in previous games. 10 players had at least one catch. This one worked out.
This is where I mention, by the way, that Matt Snyder was immensely disappointing and has been all season now. The dropsies are getting too much to ignore. The one that sticks in my gut is the one from David Watford's first-half drive; Watford was putting together a nice one and, on 3rd and 3, hit Snyder with a perfect strike for a first down. Which Snyder dropped. Watford then missed a wide-open Terrell badly on fourth down. I have a hard time faulting Watford for the failed drive because it should never have been fourth down. When your true freshman quarterback makes a great play and your senior captain lets him down by dropping the ball, that is really disappointing to watch. Snyder must improve or be passed over by Tim Smith and the wondertwins.
-- The tight ends finally get involved, with at least one having multiple catches.
But....they didn't spread things around enough to make this one work, as Paul Freedman and Mathis only had one reception each.
-- Rocco finally throws a damn touchdown pass.
Yes, although it was sort of a run-game throw, with Max Milien being the target and then doing most of the work to the tune of 41 yards. This is partly why I gave myself the one about runs that are technically passes.
-- UNC's running backs have rushing statistics similar to last year's game: a roughly even split of carries and about four yards average per carry.
Giovani Bernard went completely apeshit and Ryan Houston was bottled up. So, not only no but hell no. I envisioned better but Bernard just killed the Hoos on the edges.
-- Erik Highsmith has a big day working against Demetrious Nicholson.
He didn't. Nicholson's day was even more up-and-down than the first two games but Highsmith didn't own his face all day like I was afraid of.
-- Bryn Renner has at least as many TD throws as picks.
No picks at all, actually, which was disappointing to say the least. Renner was as efficient as I thought he'd be. Yes on this one.
-- At most two catches go to someone other than UNC's big four of Jones, Highsmith, Houston, and Bernard.
Yes on this one too; Houston had no receptions but the other three accounted for 14 of Renner's 16 completions; the other two were catches by Jheranie Boyd.
Five for ten on the predictions, plus I damn near got the score exactly right (28-17 instead of 30-17.) Season total is 12 for 26, plus 2-1 against the spread and 3-0 straight up.
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A small recruiting board update precipitated by a big commitment today: Canaan Severin chose UVA over (ultimately) Penn State and Boston College. Huge pickup; Severin's a highly-rated talent with the offers to match, of course, but here's the main significance: This is the second time this year Mike London and staff have gone outside the recruiting home base of Virginia and Maryland, gone head-to-head with power programs for a highly touted prospect, and won. (Greyson Lambert was the first.) Outside the mid-Atlantic, even; we're used to winning battles in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and the like, but Severin is from New England and Lambert is from nowhere if not the Deep South. For London to give UVA cachet enough to win battles on the visitor's territory is excellent progress.
Anyway, the recruiting board sees Severin moved from blue to orange, and FB Nathan Staub added to blue. Nothing major. Lambert will enroll early, so the class can fit 26 guys; and what do you know, 26 is the number of names currently in orange. But we're not quite done. Almost, but not quite; Kevin Green is only still there as a formality and you have to expect a prep year for one or two of these guys. The door isn't closed yet, but I'd guess there are only maybe five guys, at the very most, that the staff is still recruiting for 2012.
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Next part of any good weekend review is the Senior Seasons section, in which we catch up with the verbal commitments of 2012 as they make their way through their last high school seasons.
Victory Christian 26, Florida Air 17: Demeitre Brim returned to action from a broken jaw. He's Victory's quarterback; Victory is now 1-2.
Franklin 49, Hillsborough 20: Kye Morgan ran for 148 yards and a touchdown in the win to even Franklin's record at 1-1.
Central Bucks South 49, Norristown 9: Matt Johns didn't have to do very much, throwing for just 53 yards in a mismatch. CB South is 2-1.
Landstown 48, Princess Anne 0: Kyle Dockins had four catches for 91 yards and a touchdown. Landstown is 3-0.)
Norfolk Christian 28, Nansemond-Suffolk 21: NCS was down 21-0 and scored four unanswered touchdowns to win, the game-winner being caught by Wil Wahee. Wahee had 122 receiving yards, Mario Nixon had 125, and each caught six passes. NCS is 2-2.
Bayside 26, Ocean Lakes 21: Anthony Cooper had five catches for 87 yards and a touchdown - a "magnificent over-the-shoulder catch" according to the Virginian-Pilot. Eli Harold had eight catches for 82 yards and would've had a 94-yard touchdown of his own if the play hadn't been negated by a holding call. Both teams are now 2-1.
Varina 17, Thomas Dale 10: Maurice Canady ran four times for 17 yards and caught one pass for minus-3. Varina is 2-0.
Buford 49, Therrell 0 (C.J. Moore; Buford is 5-0.)
St. Joseph 52, Middle Township 0 (Max Valles; St. Joseph is 2-0.)
Malvern Prep 27, Archbishop Carroll (DC) 17 (Michael Mooney; Malvern is 2-1.)
Bethel 20, Hampton 0 (Jamall Brown; Hampton is 2-1.)
First Colonial 27, Green Run 20 (Mark Hall; Green Run is 1-2.)
Hermitage 37, Glen Allen 7 (Andre Miles-Redmond; Hermitage is 2-0.)
Canaan Severin committed just in time to get in on this action, except that his season doesn't actually start til next week.
Another note: Some of these papers that I get this news from only go to press like once or twice a week, and not on Monday, which means I see a few results a week late. Sean Karl's ESM squad won their opener in a blowout last weekend, and Greyson Lambert also won. The latter had a bye this weekend; the former, I have no idea what happened. Might have to create a separate week-old category. Lambert's stats last weekend were impressive: 12 of 16 for 249 yards and four touchdowns in a 50-12 win.
Well, now I bet you're just dying to hear about what the ACC's newcomers will bring to the league in its various sports. And you will. Tomorrow. Teven Jones was slated for tomorrow but he is now bumped to Wednesday. I leave you with this: the inevitable discussion between the two dying football conferences about a merger to potentially save their BCS slot. Hmmm: a football conference with the following teams:
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Iowa State
Baylor
Louisville
Cincinnati
South Florida
Connecticut
Rutgers
West Virginia
Except not all of them; either Missouri or WVU is probably headed to the SEC and I think eventually UConn and Rutgers are ACC-bound. So lop off the bottom three in your mind.
It would suck for Louisville, Cincy, and USF, but I still think the Big 12's best course of action is to seek a merger with the MWC instead. A Big East/Big 12 merger is geographically bizarre and looks more like a holding pen for future Big Ten raids than an actual conference.
-- UVA's three top running backs will split the carries about evenly.
We're getting to that point, I think, but a little more slowly than I was thinking. Not a true prediction since Kevin Parks got almost half the running back carries, but Clifton Richardson is slowly catching up anyway.
-- None will go over 60 yards rushing.
The running game was impressively productive, with the RBs getting almost six yards a carry. Parks busted the prediction by going for 98. This bodes very well for the future.
-- The running game will include a lot of plays that are technically passes, like screens and shovel passes.
No shovel passes. But. The running backs accounted for 29 actual carries and six receptions, and Lazor also tried out Dominique Terrell and Jeremiah Mathis on screens. I'm giving myself this one. Halfheartedly, but I'm doing it.
-- At least three players have four receptions each.
Yes (Kris Burd, Matt Snyder, and Perry Jones), and what's more the spirit of this prediction was basically that Lazor was going to have Rocco spread the ball around a ton, more so than in previous games. 10 players had at least one catch. This one worked out.
This is where I mention, by the way, that Matt Snyder was immensely disappointing and has been all season now. The dropsies are getting too much to ignore. The one that sticks in my gut is the one from David Watford's first-half drive; Watford was putting together a nice one and, on 3rd and 3, hit Snyder with a perfect strike for a first down. Which Snyder dropped. Watford then missed a wide-open Terrell badly on fourth down. I have a hard time faulting Watford for the failed drive because it should never have been fourth down. When your true freshman quarterback makes a great play and your senior captain lets him down by dropping the ball, that is really disappointing to watch. Snyder must improve or be passed over by Tim Smith and the wondertwins.
-- The tight ends finally get involved, with at least one having multiple catches.
But....they didn't spread things around enough to make this one work, as Paul Freedman and Mathis only had one reception each.
-- Rocco finally throws a damn touchdown pass.
Yes, although it was sort of a run-game throw, with Max Milien being the target and then doing most of the work to the tune of 41 yards. This is partly why I gave myself the one about runs that are technically passes.
-- UNC's running backs have rushing statistics similar to last year's game: a roughly even split of carries and about four yards average per carry.
Giovani Bernard went completely apeshit and Ryan Houston was bottled up. So, not only no but hell no. I envisioned better but Bernard just killed the Hoos on the edges.
-- Erik Highsmith has a big day working against Demetrious Nicholson.
He didn't. Nicholson's day was even more up-and-down than the first two games but Highsmith didn't own his face all day like I was afraid of.
-- Bryn Renner has at least as many TD throws as picks.
No picks at all, actually, which was disappointing to say the least. Renner was as efficient as I thought he'd be. Yes on this one.
-- At most two catches go to someone other than UNC's big four of Jones, Highsmith, Houston, and Bernard.
Yes on this one too; Houston had no receptions but the other three accounted for 14 of Renner's 16 completions; the other two were catches by Jheranie Boyd.
Five for ten on the predictions, plus I damn near got the score exactly right (28-17 instead of 30-17.) Season total is 12 for 26, plus 2-1 against the spread and 3-0 straight up.
***************************************
A small recruiting board update precipitated by a big commitment today: Canaan Severin chose UVA over (ultimately) Penn State and Boston College. Huge pickup; Severin's a highly-rated talent with the offers to match, of course, but here's the main significance: This is the second time this year Mike London and staff have gone outside the recruiting home base of Virginia and Maryland, gone head-to-head with power programs for a highly touted prospect, and won. (Greyson Lambert was the first.) Outside the mid-Atlantic, even; we're used to winning battles in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and the like, but Severin is from New England and Lambert is from nowhere if not the Deep South. For London to give UVA cachet enough to win battles on the visitor's territory is excellent progress.
Anyway, the recruiting board sees Severin moved from blue to orange, and FB Nathan Staub added to blue. Nothing major. Lambert will enroll early, so the class can fit 26 guys; and what do you know, 26 is the number of names currently in orange. But we're not quite done. Almost, but not quite; Kevin Green is only still there as a formality and you have to expect a prep year for one or two of these guys. The door isn't closed yet, but I'd guess there are only maybe five guys, at the very most, that the staff is still recruiting for 2012.
***************************************
Next part of any good weekend review is the Senior Seasons section, in which we catch up with the verbal commitments of 2012 as they make their way through their last high school seasons.
Victory Christian 26, Florida Air 17: Demeitre Brim returned to action from a broken jaw. He's Victory's quarterback; Victory is now 1-2.
Franklin 49, Hillsborough 20: Kye Morgan ran for 148 yards and a touchdown in the win to even Franklin's record at 1-1.
Central Bucks South 49, Norristown 9: Matt Johns didn't have to do very much, throwing for just 53 yards in a mismatch. CB South is 2-1.
Landstown 48, Princess Anne 0: Kyle Dockins had four catches for 91 yards and a touchdown. Landstown is 3-0.)
Norfolk Christian 28, Nansemond-Suffolk 21: NCS was down 21-0 and scored four unanswered touchdowns to win, the game-winner being caught by Wil Wahee. Wahee had 122 receiving yards, Mario Nixon had 125, and each caught six passes. NCS is 2-2.
Bayside 26, Ocean Lakes 21: Anthony Cooper had five catches for 87 yards and a touchdown - a "magnificent over-the-shoulder catch" according to the Virginian-Pilot. Eli Harold had eight catches for 82 yards and would've had a 94-yard touchdown of his own if the play hadn't been negated by a holding call. Both teams are now 2-1.
Varina 17, Thomas Dale 10: Maurice Canady ran four times for 17 yards and caught one pass for minus-3. Varina is 2-0.
Buford 49, Therrell 0 (C.J. Moore; Buford is 5-0.)
St. Joseph 52, Middle Township 0 (Max Valles; St. Joseph is 2-0.)
Malvern Prep 27, Archbishop Carroll (DC) 17 (Michael Mooney; Malvern is 2-1.)
Bethel 20, Hampton 0 (Jamall Brown; Hampton is 2-1.)
First Colonial 27, Green Run 20 (Mark Hall; Green Run is 1-2.)
Hermitage 37, Glen Allen 7 (Andre Miles-Redmond; Hermitage is 2-0.)
Canaan Severin committed just in time to get in on this action, except that his season doesn't actually start til next week.
Another note: Some of these papers that I get this news from only go to press like once or twice a week, and not on Monday, which means I see a few results a week late. Sean Karl's ESM squad won their opener in a blowout last weekend, and Greyson Lambert also won. The latter had a bye this weekend; the former, I have no idea what happened. Might have to create a separate week-old category. Lambert's stats last weekend were impressive: 12 of 16 for 249 yards and four touchdowns in a 50-12 win.
Well, now I bet you're just dying to hear about what the ACC's newcomers will bring to the league in its various sports. And you will. Tomorrow. Teven Jones was slated for tomorrow but he is now bumped to Wednesday. I leave you with this: the inevitable discussion between the two dying football conferences about a merger to potentially save their BCS slot. Hmmm: a football conference with the following teams:
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Iowa State
Baylor
Louisville
Cincinnati
South Florida
Connecticut
Rutgers
West Virginia
Except not all of them; either Missouri or WVU is probably headed to the SEC and I think eventually UConn and Rutgers are ACC-bound. So lop off the bottom three in your mind.
It would suck for Louisville, Cincy, and USF, but I still think the Big 12's best course of action is to seek a merger with the MWC instead. A Big East/Big 12 merger is geographically bizarre and looks more like a holding pen for future Big Ten raids than an actual conference.
Monday, August 29, 2011
the recruit: Tyrell Chavis
There's a lot of newsish stuff to catch up on, mainly the highly-anticipated publishing of the depth chart, but I also don't want to get too far behind on the recruit profiles. So today is a two for the price of one special.
Name: Tyrell Chavis
Position: DT
Hometown: Richmond
School: Varina
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 300
24/7: 83; three stars
ESPN: 78; three stars; #44 OG; VA #16; Atl. Reg. #104
Rivals: 5.5; three stars; VA #24
Scout: two stars; #99 OG
Other offers: Boston College, Vanderbilt
Tyrell Chavis is an important recruit for a couple of reasons. Actually about 300 reasons. Chavis is really the only true defensive tackle in the class right now, and unless Korren Kirven comes on board - highly unlikely - it'll stay that way. There will be others that might grow into DTs, but Chavis is already one, and the only one like him in the class. So of course, all the sites rate him for his play on the offensive line instead.
Yes, Chavis plays both sides of the line, and his 6'3" height screams guard all the way, but there are plenty of those guys in the class. So despite any rumblings about the "possibility" he'll play on the offensive side, I expect defense. Chavis looks like a true nose guard. I say this from looking at the one highlight film available since all the evaluations are on offense. He's got one move: go forward regardless of what is in the way. Technique isn't his strong suit; being physical is.
So I expect Chavis to develop as a middle-clogging zero-tech or one-tech nose tackle. (Meaning he plays right over top of the center or just a shade over in the gap.) But not for a couple years. It's a little bit of an open secret that Chavis will likely end up having to prep for a year, probably at FUMA, the usual designated place for UVA recruits who need a little help making the grade. Chavis's academic challenges are said not to be the product of laziness or incorrect priorities, rather, a family situation. The other schools to offer him actual scholarships were Boston College and Vanderbilt, which should give you an idea of the concern level.
So even if a prep year is in the cards it's not the worst thing. Chavis needs a year anyway to get rid of some baby fat and turn into a 300-pound person-crusher instead of merely a large obstacle, so he'd have simply spent the year redshirting. Right now, Chris Brathwaite is the fifth defensive tackle as a redshirt freshman; after Chavis FUMA-shirts, it wouldn't surprise too greatly to see him filling that role in technically his true freshman season in 2013. It depends on how many other guys move inside to DT. I don't think Chavis will develop into a major pass-rush threat, as he doesn't really have the quicks for it; he'll probably rotate out during passing situations. Rather, his potential is as a big run-stuffer who creates those passing situations in the first place.
*****************************************************
Let's talk depth chart. Actually, no. Let's save that til the end just to make you crazy. Let's talk Senior Seasons instead. High schools around the country got into the game for real this weekend, even here in Michigan as the GP South Blue Devils got off to a fine start with a shutout against U-D Jesuit and ended the week ranked #4 in the Eastern region of Metro Detroit. A fine start to build on last year's surprise appearance in the state semifinals. It's my blog, I get to write what I want.
But you're here to read about my other alma mater, so let's see what UVA's recruits did this weekend. A little under half of them were in action this weekend. Sort of. The 757 guys got postponed thanks to Irene. Norfolk Christian is playing as I type, so, update on that next week. So really all there is, is the Georgia games again.
Wayne County 28, Windsor Forest 28: Yes, a tie. Greyson Lambert threw two touchdowns for Wayne but also two picks, and was just 13/27 overall for 127 yards. Wayne was up 28-6 to start the fourth, but turnovers cost them the win. Wayne County is 0-0-1.
Also playing:
Buford 49, Gainesville 0 (C.J. Moore. Buford is 2-0.)
*****************************************************
OK, now we can have some sweet sweet depth chart action. The official two-deep is here, and the FOV depth chart has been updated as well. The items of interest:
-- Demetrious Nicholson has indeed won the starting position at cornerback opposite Chase Minnifield; the real news, though, is Rijo Walker's surprise move to safety. That makes Dom Joseph basically the nickel corner and walk-on Drequan Hoskey the fourth cornerback. (For now; Brandon Phelps may overtake Hoskey in the rotation.) This is actually excellent news for Walker, whose path to a starting job at corner was going to be very difficult with Nicholson and Phelps around; Walker is now the backup free safety, which means plenty of playing time and a starting job to inherit as a junior. We'll see how his talents translate to safety.
-- The other backup at safety is true freshman Anthony Harris. Walker's move and Harris's promotion is bad news for Groh recruits LoVante' Battle and Pablo Alvarez. Alvarez is still only a redshirt freshman so no big deal yet; Battle is a junior without a spot on the two-deep, which makes it pretty official that he's been passed up. I think the Nicholson promotion is a good sign and Harris's promotion a bad one; Nicholson beat out someone who'd been establishing a quality rep. Harris beat someone who's never distinguished himself and has bounced from safety to linebacker and back without hardly ever seeing the field. Fortunately there's a very strong starter at strong safety in Rodney McLeod, but Harris is probably in for a baptism by fire.
-- Ausar Walcott is working his way back up the depth chart very nicely; now listed as Aaron Taliaferro's backup at Sam linebacker. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him overtake Taliaferro by season's end; Walcott is much more physically gifted and needs only to match Taliaferro's mental grasp of the position. Good to see Walcott recovering from his misstep in January.
-- Conner Davis as the backup right guard gives me more confidence than when that was Billy Cuffee.
-- Good things have been said about Kelby Johnson this fall; even so, his position on the depth chart as backup left tackle is mainly due to Landon Bradley's ongoing injury saga. (FWIW, I don't think Bradley will be able to make it back, unfortunately.) There are some very good players at offensive tackle but not a world of depth.
-- It's interesting how Matt Snyder keeps hanging around. He must be doing something right. Looks like he, Kris Burd, and Tim Smith are the starting rotation at wide receiver with the wondertwins, Darius Jennings and Dominique Terrell, backing up and sharing kick/punt return duties.
-- Reading the tea leaves from the press conference and the depth chart, it sounds like Mike Rocco and Ross Metheny are interchangeable - that is, Metheny is Rocco's backup - and David Watford has his own specially carved out role. I think this will be different than when Bryson Spinner and Matt Schaub were on the play-til-you-screw-up schedule in 2001. I hope I'm right.
-- Lot of freshman types, both redshirt and true, on the two-deep here. I count 12, not including long snapper Matt Fortin. Unless injuries start running crazy on our starters, this actually looks like a very promising setup since of those 12, only one is a starter and he's got a very good reason to be there that doesn't involve the suckiness of the competition. We have veteran starters in most positions with underclassmen being heavily worked into the rotation; I like how that works for both now and the future.
Name: Tyrell Chavis
Position: DT
Hometown: Richmond
School: Varina
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 300
24/7: 83; three stars
ESPN: 78; three stars; #44 OG; VA #16; Atl. Reg. #104
Rivals: 5.5; three stars; VA #24
Scout: two stars; #99 OG
Other offers: Boston College, Vanderbilt
Tyrell Chavis is an important recruit for a couple of reasons. Actually about 300 reasons. Chavis is really the only true defensive tackle in the class right now, and unless Korren Kirven comes on board - highly unlikely - it'll stay that way. There will be others that might grow into DTs, but Chavis is already one, and the only one like him in the class. So of course, all the sites rate him for his play on the offensive line instead.
Yes, Chavis plays both sides of the line, and his 6'3" height screams guard all the way, but there are plenty of those guys in the class. So despite any rumblings about the "possibility" he'll play on the offensive side, I expect defense. Chavis looks like a true nose guard. I say this from looking at the one highlight film available since all the evaluations are on offense. He's got one move: go forward regardless of what is in the way. Technique isn't his strong suit; being physical is.
So I expect Chavis to develop as a middle-clogging zero-tech or one-tech nose tackle. (Meaning he plays right over top of the center or just a shade over in the gap.) But not for a couple years. It's a little bit of an open secret that Chavis will likely end up having to prep for a year, probably at FUMA, the usual designated place for UVA recruits who need a little help making the grade. Chavis's academic challenges are said not to be the product of laziness or incorrect priorities, rather, a family situation. The other schools to offer him actual scholarships were Boston College and Vanderbilt, which should give you an idea of the concern level.
So even if a prep year is in the cards it's not the worst thing. Chavis needs a year anyway to get rid of some baby fat and turn into a 300-pound person-crusher instead of merely a large obstacle, so he'd have simply spent the year redshirting. Right now, Chris Brathwaite is the fifth defensive tackle as a redshirt freshman; after Chavis FUMA-shirts, it wouldn't surprise too greatly to see him filling that role in technically his true freshman season in 2013. It depends on how many other guys move inside to DT. I don't think Chavis will develop into a major pass-rush threat, as he doesn't really have the quicks for it; he'll probably rotate out during passing situations. Rather, his potential is as a big run-stuffer who creates those passing situations in the first place.
*****************************************************
Let's talk depth chart. Actually, no. Let's save that til the end just to make you crazy. Let's talk Senior Seasons instead. High schools around the country got into the game for real this weekend, even here in Michigan as the GP South Blue Devils got off to a fine start with a shutout against U-D Jesuit and ended the week ranked #4 in the Eastern region of Metro Detroit. A fine start to build on last year's surprise appearance in the state semifinals. It's my blog, I get to write what I want.
But you're here to read about my other alma mater, so let's see what UVA's recruits did this weekend. A little under half of them were in action this weekend. Sort of. The 757 guys got postponed thanks to Irene. Norfolk Christian is playing as I type, so, update on that next week. So really all there is, is the Georgia games again.
Wayne County 28, Windsor Forest 28: Yes, a tie. Greyson Lambert threw two touchdowns for Wayne but also two picks, and was just 13/27 overall for 127 yards. Wayne was up 28-6 to start the fourth, but turnovers cost them the win. Wayne County is 0-0-1.
Also playing:
Buford 49, Gainesville 0 (C.J. Moore. Buford is 2-0.)
*****************************************************
OK, now we can have some sweet sweet depth chart action. The official two-deep is here, and the FOV depth chart has been updated as well. The items of interest:
-- Demetrious Nicholson has indeed won the starting position at cornerback opposite Chase Minnifield; the real news, though, is Rijo Walker's surprise move to safety. That makes Dom Joseph basically the nickel corner and walk-on Drequan Hoskey the fourth cornerback. (For now; Brandon Phelps may overtake Hoskey in the rotation.) This is actually excellent news for Walker, whose path to a starting job at corner was going to be very difficult with Nicholson and Phelps around; Walker is now the backup free safety, which means plenty of playing time and a starting job to inherit as a junior. We'll see how his talents translate to safety.
-- The other backup at safety is true freshman Anthony Harris. Walker's move and Harris's promotion is bad news for Groh recruits LoVante' Battle and Pablo Alvarez. Alvarez is still only a redshirt freshman so no big deal yet; Battle is a junior without a spot on the two-deep, which makes it pretty official that he's been passed up. I think the Nicholson promotion is a good sign and Harris's promotion a bad one; Nicholson beat out someone who'd been establishing a quality rep. Harris beat someone who's never distinguished himself and has bounced from safety to linebacker and back without hardly ever seeing the field. Fortunately there's a very strong starter at strong safety in Rodney McLeod, but Harris is probably in for a baptism by fire.
-- Ausar Walcott is working his way back up the depth chart very nicely; now listed as Aaron Taliaferro's backup at Sam linebacker. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him overtake Taliaferro by season's end; Walcott is much more physically gifted and needs only to match Taliaferro's mental grasp of the position. Good to see Walcott recovering from his misstep in January.
-- Conner Davis as the backup right guard gives me more confidence than when that was Billy Cuffee.
-- Good things have been said about Kelby Johnson this fall; even so, his position on the depth chart as backup left tackle is mainly due to Landon Bradley's ongoing injury saga. (FWIW, I don't think Bradley will be able to make it back, unfortunately.) There are some very good players at offensive tackle but not a world of depth.
-- It's interesting how Matt Snyder keeps hanging around. He must be doing something right. Looks like he, Kris Burd, and Tim Smith are the starting rotation at wide receiver with the wondertwins, Darius Jennings and Dominique Terrell, backing up and sharing kick/punt return duties.
-- Reading the tea leaves from the press conference and the depth chart, it sounds like Mike Rocco and Ross Metheny are interchangeable - that is, Metheny is Rocco's backup - and David Watford has his own specially carved out role. I think this will be different than when Bryson Spinner and Matt Schaub were on the play-til-you-screw-up schedule in 2001. I hope I'm right.
-- Lot of freshman types, both redshirt and true, on the two-deep here. I count 12, not including long snapper Matt Fortin. Unless injuries start running crazy on our starters, this actually looks like a very promising setup since of those 12, only one is a starter and he's got a very good reason to be there that doesn't involve the suckiness of the competition. We have veteran starters in most positions with underclassmen being heavily worked into the rotation; I like how that works for both now and the future.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
the recruit: Rob Burns
Name: Rob Burns
Position: DE
Hometown: Ashburn
School: Stone Bridge
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 230
ESPN: 77; three stars; #79 DE
Rivals: 5.6; three stars; VA #15
Scout: three stars; #56 DE
Other offers: Penn State, Stanford, Boston College, Michigan State, Maryland, Syracuse, Rutgers, Duke, Wake Forest
Rob Burns was one of the first guys Mike London offered upon being named head coach, and his name was at the top of the board for most UVA fans. UVA was his first offer (and remained so for a few months), his classroom work is strong, and he hails from one of the state's top teams. Priority recruit. So it might have worried people who read the CavsCorner article about Thompson Brown when Brown referred to London telling him something about "closing out the defensive line class."
Burns was obviously a touch worried too, because he scooted his decision timeframe up and was committed to UVA within a few days of Brown, making sure to get in ahead of a visit day that he wasn't going to attend.
One of the few UVA commits still in the hunt for a state title, Burns anchors one of the state's top defenses. Stone Bridge held regular season opponents to 56 points all season (and often scored about that many in one game), shut out four teams, and held one hapless opponent to 13 yards of total offense all game long. He plays tight end, too (and lacrosse); a natural fit for a guy who's as tall as a power forward and described by his coach as fast. But he's defense all the way in college.
And he'll almost certainly stick at end, too. Despite his height - 6'7, 6'8 is tall for a lineman; you need leverage, after all - ESPN and his coach both credit him with good ability to get down and keep his pad level low. That said, he's probably too tall and definitely too thin for a move to tackle unless he adds another 50 pounds, minimum. (This is the same coaching staff that thinks 240-pound John-Kevin Dolce should be used as a run-stopping tackle, but still.) Five defensive ends are listed on the incoming section of the depth chart, but Burns is one of the most likely to stick there.
All four of UVA's two-deep defensive ends return in 2011, plus DE number five, Billy Schautz. (I expect Jeremiah Mathis to return to the defense next year.) Even if the somewhat underwhelming Zane Parr loses his starting job, Jake Snyder is a third-year sophomore next year, and field-ready. Chances are not good for a true freshman DE to see the field. After that, though, it's open season on the two-deep, with Parr and Cam Johnson graduating next year. Just by virtue of being so damn tall (and plenty athletic), Burns is one of the freakier physical specimens in the incoming class. With his speed, height, and reasonably impressive array of college offers, he should be a quality pass-rusher as well as able to close off the edge to outside running plays. Barring any five-star superfreaks in the upcoming recruiting classes, there's no reason to believe Burns shouldn't develop into at least a two-year starter on the D-line.
Position: DE
Hometown: Ashburn
School: Stone Bridge
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 230
ESPN: 77; three stars; #79 DE
Rivals: 5.6; three stars; VA #15
Scout: three stars; #56 DE
Other offers: Penn State, Stanford, Boston College, Michigan State, Maryland, Syracuse, Rutgers, Duke, Wake Forest
Rob Burns was one of the first guys Mike London offered upon being named head coach, and his name was at the top of the board for most UVA fans. UVA was his first offer (and remained so for a few months), his classroom work is strong, and he hails from one of the state's top teams. Priority recruit. So it might have worried people who read the CavsCorner article about Thompson Brown when Brown referred to London telling him something about "closing out the defensive line class."
Burns was obviously a touch worried too, because he scooted his decision timeframe up and was committed to UVA within a few days of Brown, making sure to get in ahead of a visit day that he wasn't going to attend.
One of the few UVA commits still in the hunt for a state title, Burns anchors one of the state's top defenses. Stone Bridge held regular season opponents to 56 points all season (and often scored about that many in one game), shut out four teams, and held one hapless opponent to 13 yards of total offense all game long. He plays tight end, too (and lacrosse); a natural fit for a guy who's as tall as a power forward and described by his coach as fast. But he's defense all the way in college.
And he'll almost certainly stick at end, too. Despite his height - 6'7, 6'8 is tall for a lineman; you need leverage, after all - ESPN and his coach both credit him with good ability to get down and keep his pad level low. That said, he's probably too tall and definitely too thin for a move to tackle unless he adds another 50 pounds, minimum. (This is the same coaching staff that thinks 240-pound John-Kevin Dolce should be used as a run-stopping tackle, but still.) Five defensive ends are listed on the incoming section of the depth chart, but Burns is one of the most likely to stick there.
All four of UVA's two-deep defensive ends return in 2011, plus DE number five, Billy Schautz. (I expect Jeremiah Mathis to return to the defense next year.) Even if the somewhat underwhelming Zane Parr loses his starting job, Jake Snyder is a third-year sophomore next year, and field-ready. Chances are not good for a true freshman DE to see the field. After that, though, it's open season on the two-deep, with Parr and Cam Johnson graduating next year. Just by virtue of being so damn tall (and plenty athletic), Burns is one of the freakier physical specimens in the incoming class. With his speed, height, and reasonably impressive array of college offers, he should be a quality pass-rusher as well as able to close off the edge to outside running plays. Barring any five-star superfreaks in the upcoming recruiting classes, there's no reason to believe Burns shouldn't develop into at least a two-year starter on the D-line.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
the recruit: Thompson Brown
Name: Thompson Brown
Position: DE
Hometown: Richmond
School: St. Christopher's
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 221
ESPN: 77; three stars; #65 DE
Rivals: 5.5; three stars; VA #23
Scout: three stars; #98 DE
Other offers: Boston College, Maryland, Duke, Ohio
Thompson Brown wasn't even on the recruiting board. There's a reason for this: he didn't have a UVA offer, and it took him maybe five minutes between getting it and committing. Brown committed at a time when D-line spots were thought to be just about full and the whole fanbase was on Rob Burns commitment watch. Brown came in out of nowhere, shortly after Brandon Phelps, and his commitment probably had something to do with Burns being the very next shoe to drop. Whoops, the bus is getting full and I don't know when the next one comes around; better get in before the doors close.
The reason for Brown's lightning-quick reflexes upon receiving the offer is simply that he's a UVA fan from way back. So that's good. Brown plays on the private-school circuit where the competition isn't great (and the injury-riddled junior season didn't help); he didn't have much but some I-AA offers until it came time to camp. Then he picked one up at every camp he went to: BC, Maryland, UVA.
No health problems this year, though. Brown is a two-way player: DE on the defense, and RB and a little TE on offense. He's been remarkably productive all season, with a knack for getting to the ball on defense whether it's in the hands of a ballcarrier or turned loose for the taking. And when in need of touchdowns, St. Chris's usually turns to him there, too. It's not unusual to see Brown get a turnover and a touchdown in the same game, as he did against fellow verbal Darius Lee's St. S/St. A squad.
Brown joins a very deep 2011 DE class that could get even deeper if UVA takes a commitment from Horace Arkadie. The likelihood of all four or five of them sticking at DE is slim; you've got to have some flexibility, and Brown could be among the more flexible players. Marco Jones is a big guy and isn't going anywhere unless he goes inside to DT; Rob Burns is freakishly tall, probably too much so to be a blocker.
Additionally, there isn't much playing time available for defensive ends at the moment. There's a need for depth, but not at the higher levels of the depth chart, as Cam Johnson and Zane Parr are both juniors and there are some capable-looking players behind them in Jake Snyder and Jeremiah Mathis (who I fully expect to see back at DE next year.) Mathis is a bit of a wild card though - it's not crazy to think the coaches might leave him at TE. This is what I mean by a need for flexibility. And Thompson Brown appears to be one of the more flexible players in the class, so his redshirt year will probably be spent seeing what kind of attrition we have and who fits where ahead of him. He'll likely start out working at DE, but I'm not willing to bet on where he'll be two years later. Brown's productivity in high school suggests he'll be a contributor somewhere, maybe a big one. But I think the - ahem - circumstances of the roster ahead of him will ultimately determine where.
Position: DE
Hometown: Richmond
School: St. Christopher's
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 221
ESPN: 77; three stars; #65 DE
Rivals: 5.5; three stars; VA #23
Scout: three stars; #98 DE
Other offers: Boston College, Maryland, Duke, Ohio
Thompson Brown wasn't even on the recruiting board. There's a reason for this: he didn't have a UVA offer, and it took him maybe five minutes between getting it and committing. Brown committed at a time when D-line spots were thought to be just about full and the whole fanbase was on Rob Burns commitment watch. Brown came in out of nowhere, shortly after Brandon Phelps, and his commitment probably had something to do with Burns being the very next shoe to drop. Whoops, the bus is getting full and I don't know when the next one comes around; better get in before the doors close.
The reason for Brown's lightning-quick reflexes upon receiving the offer is simply that he's a UVA fan from way back. So that's good. Brown plays on the private-school circuit where the competition isn't great (and the injury-riddled junior season didn't help); he didn't have much but some I-AA offers until it came time to camp. Then he picked one up at every camp he went to: BC, Maryland, UVA.
No health problems this year, though. Brown is a two-way player: DE on the defense, and RB and a little TE on offense. He's been remarkably productive all season, with a knack for getting to the ball on defense whether it's in the hands of a ballcarrier or turned loose for the taking. And when in need of touchdowns, St. Chris's usually turns to him there, too. It's not unusual to see Brown get a turnover and a touchdown in the same game, as he did against fellow verbal Darius Lee's St. S/St. A squad.
Brown joins a very deep 2011 DE class that could get even deeper if UVA takes a commitment from Horace Arkadie. The likelihood of all four or five of them sticking at DE is slim; you've got to have some flexibility, and Brown could be among the more flexible players. Marco Jones is a big guy and isn't going anywhere unless he goes inside to DT; Rob Burns is freakishly tall, probably too much so to be a blocker.
Additionally, there isn't much playing time available for defensive ends at the moment. There's a need for depth, but not at the higher levels of the depth chart, as Cam Johnson and Zane Parr are both juniors and there are some capable-looking players behind them in Jake Snyder and Jeremiah Mathis (who I fully expect to see back at DE next year.) Mathis is a bit of a wild card though - it's not crazy to think the coaches might leave him at TE. This is what I mean by a need for flexibility. And Thompson Brown appears to be one of the more flexible players in the class, so his redshirt year will probably be spent seeing what kind of attrition we have and who fits where ahead of him. He'll likely start out working at DE, but I'm not willing to bet on where he'll be two years later. Brown's productivity in high school suggests he'll be a contributor somewhere, maybe a big one. But I think the - ahem - circumstances of the roster ahead of him will ultimately determine where.
Monday, August 30, 2010
weekend review: game face
It was 91 degrees outside in my neck of the woods this weekend and not remotely football weather, but that doesn't stop it from being a game week. And that means it's time to get the blog's game face on. So first: recruiting board. Monday thing during the season. Couple of additions this week as Mike London stretches his recruiting arm to Georgia:
- Added LB Troy Gray to blue.
- Added TE Max Mason and WR Demetri Knowles to yellow.
No, still not much going on in the recruiting world. Wait til this weekend when official visits can start.
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I don't know how often we'll see the depth chart updated on the official site, but they did so this week, which is kind of exciting. So there's a depth chart update here too. Among the highlights:
- I was a dum-dum and forgot to take the decommitted Matt Bailey off last time. So that's done.
- My hunch was correct: Ross Metheny and Mike Rocco are the backup QBs, but in no real order as yet. Odd man out in the rotation is Michael Strauss.
- The top two RBs are Perry Jones and Raynard Horne.
- Tim Smith is listed as a backup WR, with Dontrelle Inman a starter. These last two positions are probably going to be almighty interchangeable though.
- Jake Snyder breaks through as a backup DE.
- John-Kevin Dolce is officially the starter at DT over Matt Conrath, which is, ah, surprising. Dolce is hopefully as strong as advertised, because he's also going to be giving up 50+ pounds to his opponents. DT is always a platoony kind of position anyway - even Groh rotated people pretty frequently here - so it's not like Conrath is suddenly going to go ghost on us.
- Lot of "ORs" at linebacker, as in "Steve Greer OR Aaron Taliaferro", but I still think Greer, if he doesn't start off taking a majority of the snaps, will be doing so eventually. Some are surprised to see Laroy Reynolds sharing the starting job with anyone, but what do you expect from a converted safety who spent most of last year on special teams?
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And college football season means it's also high school football season. It's early yet and not every team started their season this past weekend, but some have. So here's how our recruits have been doing:
- Bayside 21, Green Run 10 in Virginia Beach. David Dean's team lost to Demetrious Nicholson's Bayside, but it was a sluggish affair for the much higher-ranked Bayside. Nicholson, who hasn't committed anywhere but will probably take an official to UVA, played both sides of the ball and caught four passes for 76 yards.
- Cox 30, Kellam 17 in Virginia Beach. Opening season win for Ross Burbank.
- I.C. Norcom 26, Northeastern (NC) 6 in Portsmouth. Kameron Mack's team gets a win over a not-great out-of-state team.
- Petersburg 43, Halifax County 20. Kevin Green will likely be a linebacker or a tight end or something at UVA, but he's Petersburg's quarterback.
- Good Counsel 21, St. Xavier (OH) 6. Big time matchup of two of the nation's power programs. Vincent Croce was in on at least one turnover. The game wasn't as close as it looked; Good Counsel broke it open in the fourth after trailing 6-0 most of the game. Potential recruit Sean Duggan, who has UVA in a smallish list of leaders, is a St. X linebacker.
- Glen Oak 42, H.D. Woodson 2. Darius Redman's team gets squashed.
- Mallard Creek 26, Independence 6. This actually happened two weeks ago. Two of North Carolina's best; Adrian Gamble's team comes out on the wrong end. South Pointe is next week for Independence, home of maybe the top recruit in the country in Jadeveon Clowney.
****************************************
Lastly, it's not only football season, it's football season! European football, that is. The Virginia Classic is next weekend with games against UAB and St. John's - both are eminently beatable. Virginia Tech is also in town, but UVA's game with them will wait til the ACC season. They're not good either. Picked 9th of 9 in the ACC preseason coaches' poll.
Speaking of which, weird. UVA is #2 in the preseason national poll, but picked 3rd in the ACC by the coaches. You'd have to figure the coaches know a little better, and are asking questions like where's the offense going to come from without guys like Tony Tchani, who went pro after his sophomore season? But most of the main operators of last season's record-setting defense are back, so let's watch and see if goalie extraordinaire Diego Restrepo can duplicate his incredible two-month shutout streak of last year.
- Added LB Troy Gray to blue.
- Added TE Max Mason and WR Demetri Knowles to yellow.
No, still not much going on in the recruiting world. Wait til this weekend when official visits can start.
****************************************
I don't know how often we'll see the depth chart updated on the official site, but they did so this week, which is kind of exciting. So there's a depth chart update here too. Among the highlights:
- I was a dum-dum and forgot to take the decommitted Matt Bailey off last time. So that's done.
- My hunch was correct: Ross Metheny and Mike Rocco are the backup QBs, but in no real order as yet. Odd man out in the rotation is Michael Strauss.
- The top two RBs are Perry Jones and Raynard Horne.
- Tim Smith is listed as a backup WR, with Dontrelle Inman a starter. These last two positions are probably going to be almighty interchangeable though.
- Jake Snyder breaks through as a backup DE.
- John-Kevin Dolce is officially the starter at DT over Matt Conrath, which is, ah, surprising. Dolce is hopefully as strong as advertised, because he's also going to be giving up 50+ pounds to his opponents. DT is always a platoony kind of position anyway - even Groh rotated people pretty frequently here - so it's not like Conrath is suddenly going to go ghost on us.
- Lot of "ORs" at linebacker, as in "Steve Greer OR Aaron Taliaferro", but I still think Greer, if he doesn't start off taking a majority of the snaps, will be doing so eventually. Some are surprised to see Laroy Reynolds sharing the starting job with anyone, but what do you expect from a converted safety who spent most of last year on special teams?
****************************************
And college football season means it's also high school football season. It's early yet and not every team started their season this past weekend, but some have. So here's how our recruits have been doing:
- Bayside 21, Green Run 10 in Virginia Beach. David Dean's team lost to Demetrious Nicholson's Bayside, but it was a sluggish affair for the much higher-ranked Bayside. Nicholson, who hasn't committed anywhere but will probably take an official to UVA, played both sides of the ball and caught four passes for 76 yards.
- Cox 30, Kellam 17 in Virginia Beach. Opening season win for Ross Burbank.
- I.C. Norcom 26, Northeastern (NC) 6 in Portsmouth. Kameron Mack's team gets a win over a not-great out-of-state team.
- Petersburg 43, Halifax County 20. Kevin Green will likely be a linebacker or a tight end or something at UVA, but he's Petersburg's quarterback.
- Good Counsel 21, St. Xavier (OH) 6. Big time matchup of two of the nation's power programs. Vincent Croce was in on at least one turnover. The game wasn't as close as it looked; Good Counsel broke it open in the fourth after trailing 6-0 most of the game. Potential recruit Sean Duggan, who has UVA in a smallish list of leaders, is a St. X linebacker.
- Glen Oak 42, H.D. Woodson 2. Darius Redman's team gets squashed.
- Mallard Creek 26, Independence 6. This actually happened two weeks ago. Two of North Carolina's best; Adrian Gamble's team comes out on the wrong end. South Pointe is next week for Independence, home of maybe the top recruit in the country in Jadeveon Clowney.
****************************************
Lastly, it's not only football season, it's football season! European football, that is. The Virginia Classic is next weekend with games against UAB and St. John's - both are eminently beatable. Virginia Tech is also in town, but UVA's game with them will wait til the ACC season. They're not good either. Picked 9th of 9 in the ACC preseason coaches' poll.
Speaking of which, weird. UVA is #2 in the preseason national poll, but picked 3rd in the ACC by the coaches. You'd have to figure the coaches know a little better, and are asking questions like where's the offense going to come from without guys like Tony Tchani, who went pro after his sophomore season? But most of the main operators of last season's record-setting defense are back, so let's watch and see if goalie extraordinaire Diego Restrepo can duplicate his incredible two-month shutout streak of last year.
Monday, June 21, 2010
useful stuff update: getting thin edition
Another big wave of commitments means it's time to fix what needs fixing. And what goes up must come down: Jeff White also breaks the news of a number of departures for the year - some permanent, others not - that also necessitates an update to the depth chart as well as the recruiting board. Let's have at it:
- Surprising amount of attrition sees five players leave the team: WR Quintin Hunter, WR Javaris Brown, OT Lamar Milstead, DE Tory Allen-Ford, and CB Javanti Sparrow. The explanation for Sparrow involves privacy laws and the possibility of return for 2011, which decrypts as "academic issues." So Sparrow may end up returning as did, for example, Chris Cook and Jameel Sewell. And he has a redshirt year to use, courtesy of Al Groh's "slashing and burning of our future," as some like to call it. The rest are out.
- On the flip side, scholarships are given to WR Matt Snyder and K Robert Randolph.
- I've also updated, by the way, the spaces for the '11 commits. The latest, Kevin Green, probably isn't going to a quarterback at all, but what the hell, he goes there for now. I don't think he's on board for his quarterbacking so much as for his overall athleticism.
Impact? First, by my count, 82 scholarships spoken for; we'll be a few shy this year. Second, a little extra space, but not a lot, opens up in the recruiting class of 2011. Sparrow's scholarship hopefully won't be open, but the shuffling basically adds two free spaces. There's a bare, absolute minimum now of 16 members of the class; 14 are spoken for, 15 if you count Clifton Richardson as a commit, which I don't, yet. 20 was the old target; I'm thinking 22 now. This is the silver lining, and it's a big one, because spaces are quickly coming off the board and there are some primo targets left.
Second, depth at cornerback just went from a big issue to a big big issue. I know Mike London wants speed at linebacker but can we really be carrying 11 linebackers and five cornerbacks? Five scholarship players is not a cornerback depth chart, it's a cornerback kiddie pool. Depth is suddenly a problem at receiver too, with just seven scholarship players there. Wide receiver just became a priority for this class.
Speaking of this class, let's have a look at the new, updated recruiting board:
- Moved TE Darius Redman, LB Caleb Taylor, and S Kameron Mack to orange, and added ATH Kevin Green there too.
- Removed a few players with whom our chances have fallen from near zero to actually zero: ATH Lafonte Thourogood, WR Quinta Funderburk, and OT Cyrus Kouandjio.
- Removed a couple more players who it doesn't look like we'll get involved with: LB Myles Jackson and WR Melvin Robinson.
- Removed ATH Chris Hall, who's now a Hokie.
- Moved DE Norkeithus Otis from yellow to red.
- Moved QB Kevin Hogan and OT Jay Whitmire from yellow to blue.
- Also, notably, moved LB Curtis Grant from yellow to blue. This isn't because Grant has narrowed down his list or anything. D-I schools can still be divided into two groups: those who've offered Grant, and those who figure they wouldn't have a chance. But the fact is, Grant has been to UVA a lot this spring. Charlottesville is something of a weekend hangout. This is a recruitment UVA fans will be glued to the same way we were for Morgan Moses. Might as well act like it.
- Surprising amount of attrition sees five players leave the team: WR Quintin Hunter, WR Javaris Brown, OT Lamar Milstead, DE Tory Allen-Ford, and CB Javanti Sparrow. The explanation for Sparrow involves privacy laws and the possibility of return for 2011, which decrypts as "academic issues." So Sparrow may end up returning as did, for example, Chris Cook and Jameel Sewell. And he has a redshirt year to use, courtesy of Al Groh's "slashing and burning of our future," as some like to call it. The rest are out.
- On the flip side, scholarships are given to WR Matt Snyder and K Robert Randolph.
- I've also updated, by the way, the spaces for the '11 commits. The latest, Kevin Green, probably isn't going to a quarterback at all, but what the hell, he goes there for now. I don't think he's on board for his quarterbacking so much as for his overall athleticism.
Impact? First, by my count, 82 scholarships spoken for; we'll be a few shy this year. Second, a little extra space, but not a lot, opens up in the recruiting class of 2011. Sparrow's scholarship hopefully won't be open, but the shuffling basically adds two free spaces. There's a bare, absolute minimum now of 16 members of the class; 14 are spoken for, 15 if you count Clifton Richardson as a commit, which I don't, yet. 20 was the old target; I'm thinking 22 now. This is the silver lining, and it's a big one, because spaces are quickly coming off the board and there are some primo targets left.
Second, depth at cornerback just went from a big issue to a big big issue. I know Mike London wants speed at linebacker but can we really be carrying 11 linebackers and five cornerbacks? Five scholarship players is not a cornerback depth chart, it's a cornerback kiddie pool. Depth is suddenly a problem at receiver too, with just seven scholarship players there. Wide receiver just became a priority for this class.
Speaking of this class, let's have a look at the new, updated recruiting board:
- Moved TE Darius Redman, LB Caleb Taylor, and S Kameron Mack to orange, and added ATH Kevin Green there too.
- Removed a few players with whom our chances have fallen from near zero to actually zero: ATH Lafonte Thourogood, WR Quinta Funderburk, and OT Cyrus Kouandjio.
- Removed a couple more players who it doesn't look like we'll get involved with: LB Myles Jackson and WR Melvin Robinson.
- Removed ATH Chris Hall, who's now a Hokie.
- Moved DE Norkeithus Otis from yellow to red.
- Moved QB Kevin Hogan and OT Jay Whitmire from yellow to blue.
- Also, notably, moved LB Curtis Grant from yellow to blue. This isn't because Grant has narrowed down his list or anything. D-I schools can still be divided into two groups: those who've offered Grant, and those who figure they wouldn't have a chance. But the fact is, Grant has been to UVA a lot this spring. Charlottesville is something of a weekend hangout. This is a recruitment UVA fans will be glued to the same way we were for Morgan Moses. Might as well act like it.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
questions and unanswers
Spring practice wrapped up with the spring scrimmage on Saturday, which means that super-obsessive football fans have nothing to do until August and everyone else stopped ignoring spring practice. As a baseball player way back in high school I had a coach who liked to say, "Everyone looks good in the cage." I think that's sage advice, and so I don't obsess over who looks good and who beat who in spring practice, because they all looked pretty damn good last year in the spring and then we went 3-9 and fired the coach.
That said, however, spring can answer a few questions for us. So today I'll put my best foot forward in seeing what spring ball might have settled, and what remains to be seen.
Questions we now have answers to:
- Who's going to start at quarterback against Richmond?
That would be Marc Verica. I wish I wish I wish I could find the Jeff White article that more or less let it slip, but I can't - something about how the coaches were having a pretty spirited backup battle between Ross Metheny and Michael Strauss. Verica didn't blow away the competition, but his experience gave him a major leg up and he'll have to implode in the August to lose the job.
- What will the uniforms look like?
"Oregon of the East" caused a lot of consternation among tradition-minded fans (like me) who didn't really like the idea of diamond-plate patterns, random striping all over the place, or dressing like the Oakland Raiders when your school colors are those of the Green Bay Packers. Basically, those of us who don't want a clown show to take the field where the football team is supposed to. Fortunately, there's a much simpler, classier approach in place and we can step back from the ledge now.
- Will the offense still suck?
I think most folks are optimistically willing to keep this in the "unanswered" category, but in good conscience, I can't. The spring game generated two articles about the lousy offense on display - Verica was 8 for 23 and the entire running game stunk. And this was against a defense learning a totally brand-new playbook, featuring many players in entirely brand-new positions. This offense is going to need stability before it turns into something that coaches have to bother game-planning against, and that means a lot more than half a year figuring it out.
- How will the change to the 4-3 affect the defensive positioning?
You already knew some people were getting shuffled around, but moving Ausar Walcott and LoVante' Battle from safety to linebacker (which thanks to the alignment change already had a glut) necessitated even more movement. Mostly we know how that goes now:
* Walcott and Battle are outside linebackers.
* Terrence Fells-Danzer is a fullback, and Cam Johnson, Jeremiah Mathis, and Billy Schautz - all former linebackers - are defensive ends.
* Matt Conrath and Brent Urban are defensive tackles.
I'm still not sure I'm big on moving Walcott and Battle, by the way. Speed on defense is a good thing, but so is a depth chart in the secondary, where we're awfully thin. And we're even thinner at DT - I count four, which means there's no two-deep if even one goes down - so I expect at least one more move there. Wouldn't surprise me if incoming freshman Stephen Lawe finds himself on defense come fall camp.
Alright, but it wouldn't be any fun if we knew everything. Here's what remains to be seen:
- Who's going to start at quarterback in mid-October?
Verica has likely established himself as the first option, but not as the kind of guy who puts a deathgrip on a job. If we're an uncompetitive 2-3 (or, horrors, 1-4, meaning a Richmond loss) coming out of what'll probably be a total catastrophe of an Atlanta trip in October, you know it'll start to be time for a quarterback switch. Barring Richmond becoming the new William & Mary, Verica will probably keep the job throughout September because the competition isn't good enough (or is way too damn good) to properly gauge how the season is going. FSU and GT as the first two October games will be a much better yardstick as to whether we should start looking at the future.
- What will the running back depth chart look like?
Pure chaos right now, that's what. There are seven options here: Raynard Horne, Keith Payne, Torrey Mack, Perry Jones, Dominique Wallace, K.P. Parks, and Khalek Shepherd, and only four of them participated fully in spring practice and none of those four really grabbed hold of the job. Why don't we know anything?
* Horne has never really been much more than a change-up back, in to spell the starters.
* We really kind of know what Payne is capable of, and honestly it's not stardom.
* Mack flashed a lot of talent in spring ball last year but couldn't pass-block to save his life (and definitely not his quarterback's), thus whenever he was in the game, defenses keyed on the run.
* Jones is the size of the period at the end of this sentence, and not going to be an every-down guy, ever.
* Wallace might have the best size/speed combination but is still recovering from last season's injury.
* Parks and Shepherd ain't even here yet.
I don't see Horne, Payne, or Jones being #1 options. Any one of them might make a great change-of-pace type but they're not toting the load. There's a great chance here for Parks - who just might be the most talented of the bunch - to step in and make his name. Shepherd, too.
- Is the defense that awesome or is the offense that bad?
Such is the nature of spring practice that you can never really tell, unless you have a coach's eye, whether good results are really good results, or just bad news for the other side of the ball. The defense does remain highly talented, however, and I think they'll still look about as good as they did last year. But with the alignment switch, you never know.
- Who's the placekicker?
London said he'd pick one that would be the starter going into fall camp, but he hasn't told us who.
So with all that, I've updated the depth chart for ya, and today's addition of Ross Burbank to the commitment list (less than a week after his offer - this is a guy who definitely wanted to be a Hoo) merits a recruiting board update too. The depth chart, by the way, has one tiny format change: no more walk-ons, for the most part. It got to be annoying to track the comings and goings. If they've got a real shot to actually participate (Matt Snyder, for example, or the kickers) then they're still on there, but the ones who aren't a threat to see the field aren't there any more. Should be easier to track that way.
Tomorrow: uniforms!
That said, however, spring can answer a few questions for us. So today I'll put my best foot forward in seeing what spring ball might have settled, and what remains to be seen.
Questions we now have answers to:
- Who's going to start at quarterback against Richmond?
That would be Marc Verica. I wish I wish I wish I could find the Jeff White article that more or less let it slip, but I can't - something about how the coaches were having a pretty spirited backup battle between Ross Metheny and Michael Strauss. Verica didn't blow away the competition, but his experience gave him a major leg up and he'll have to implode in the August to lose the job.
- What will the uniforms look like?
"Oregon of the East" caused a lot of consternation among tradition-minded fans (like me) who didn't really like the idea of diamond-plate patterns, random striping all over the place, or dressing like the Oakland Raiders when your school colors are those of the Green Bay Packers. Basically, those of us who don't want a clown show to take the field where the football team is supposed to. Fortunately, there's a much simpler, classier approach in place and we can step back from the ledge now.
- Will the offense still suck?
I think most folks are optimistically willing to keep this in the "unanswered" category, but in good conscience, I can't. The spring game generated two articles about the lousy offense on display - Verica was 8 for 23 and the entire running game stunk. And this was against a defense learning a totally brand-new playbook, featuring many players in entirely brand-new positions. This offense is going to need stability before it turns into something that coaches have to bother game-planning against, and that means a lot more than half a year figuring it out.
- How will the change to the 4-3 affect the defensive positioning?
You already knew some people were getting shuffled around, but moving Ausar Walcott and LoVante' Battle from safety to linebacker (which thanks to the alignment change already had a glut) necessitated even more movement. Mostly we know how that goes now:
* Walcott and Battle are outside linebackers.
* Terrence Fells-Danzer is a fullback, and Cam Johnson, Jeremiah Mathis, and Billy Schautz - all former linebackers - are defensive ends.
* Matt Conrath and Brent Urban are defensive tackles.
I'm still not sure I'm big on moving Walcott and Battle, by the way. Speed on defense is a good thing, but so is a depth chart in the secondary, where we're awfully thin. And we're even thinner at DT - I count four, which means there's no two-deep if even one goes down - so I expect at least one more move there. Wouldn't surprise me if incoming freshman Stephen Lawe finds himself on defense come fall camp.
Alright, but it wouldn't be any fun if we knew everything. Here's what remains to be seen:
- Who's going to start at quarterback in mid-October?
Verica has likely established himself as the first option, but not as the kind of guy who puts a deathgrip on a job. If we're an uncompetitive 2-3 (or, horrors, 1-4, meaning a Richmond loss) coming out of what'll probably be a total catastrophe of an Atlanta trip in October, you know it'll start to be time for a quarterback switch. Barring Richmond becoming the new William & Mary, Verica will probably keep the job throughout September because the competition isn't good enough (or is way too damn good) to properly gauge how the season is going. FSU and GT as the first two October games will be a much better yardstick as to whether we should start looking at the future.
- What will the running back depth chart look like?
Pure chaos right now, that's what. There are seven options here: Raynard Horne, Keith Payne, Torrey Mack, Perry Jones, Dominique Wallace, K.P. Parks, and Khalek Shepherd, and only four of them participated fully in spring practice and none of those four really grabbed hold of the job. Why don't we know anything?
* Horne has never really been much more than a change-up back, in to spell the starters.
* We really kind of know what Payne is capable of, and honestly it's not stardom.
* Mack flashed a lot of talent in spring ball last year but couldn't pass-block to save his life (and definitely not his quarterback's), thus whenever he was in the game, defenses keyed on the run.
* Jones is the size of the period at the end of this sentence, and not going to be an every-down guy, ever.
* Wallace might have the best size/speed combination but is still recovering from last season's injury.
* Parks and Shepherd ain't even here yet.
I don't see Horne, Payne, or Jones being #1 options. Any one of them might make a great change-of-pace type but they're not toting the load. There's a great chance here for Parks - who just might be the most talented of the bunch - to step in and make his name. Shepherd, too.
- Is the defense that awesome or is the offense that bad?
Such is the nature of spring practice that you can never really tell, unless you have a coach's eye, whether good results are really good results, or just bad news for the other side of the ball. The defense does remain highly talented, however, and I think they'll still look about as good as they did last year. But with the alignment switch, you never know.
- Who's the placekicker?
London said he'd pick one that would be the starter going into fall camp, but he hasn't told us who.
So with all that, I've updated the depth chart for ya, and today's addition of Ross Burbank to the commitment list (less than a week after his offer - this is a guy who definitely wanted to be a Hoo) merits a recruiting board update too. The depth chart, by the way, has one tiny format change: no more walk-ons, for the most part. It got to be annoying to track the comings and goings. If they've got a real shot to actually participate (Matt Snyder, for example, or the kickers) then they're still on there, but the ones who aren't a threat to see the field aren't there any more. Should be easier to track that way.
Tomorrow: uniforms!
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
the recruit: Jake Snyder
Quick Hanna update: The last forecast now has the "2 PM Saturday" dot parked squarely over Norfolk instead of Charlottesville. Good for the game, bad for those who live in Norfolk, good for those who live in Norfolk and want to watch the game. The other thing about that forecast? The line now goes directly over the top of my house. So if you're looking for a Sunday post and it isn't there, blame the hurricane.
So it's time for something we haven't done in a while. Today's spotlight is on a guy who could be the best of the class.
Name: Jake Snyder
Position: DE
Hometown: Glen Allen
School: Deep Run
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 237
40: 4.8
ESPN: 78, #38 DE
Rivals: three stars, 5.7, #16 at "weakside defensive end" (but not to get too specific or anything)
Scout: three stars, #72 DE
Pay no attention to the Scout ranking on Snyder. As late as June 2, Scout hadn't rated Snyder, and neither for that matter had Rivals; the next day, he was a UVA commit, and thus the urgency to rate him went away. Rivals, though, still had their state-by-state rankings to compile, and when they did, Snyder came out none too shabby: 15th in the state of Virginia.
Snyder is a two-way player at Deep Run; on offense, he plays tight end. There haven't been any clear indicators of what he'll do when he gets to Charlottesville, but if Snyder gets his way he'll be on the defensive side of the ball. May not necessarily be at defensive end, though; 237 is not DE sized but it is perfect for the OLB in a 3-4.
The DE highlights have him shedding blocks pretty quick, and even dropping into pass coverage on occasion. (Did someone say linebacker?) He's got the talent. And you have to like the offer list. Tech offered, as you'd expect since he's one of the top recruits in the state, though we may have had a slight edge since Jake's brother Matt is a walk-on receiver here. Out of state, there was BC, Colorado, Penn State, Louisville and Purdue - good programs all. The big kahuna was the Ohio State offer - which was also the one that gave Jake the final push toward UVA. Getting an OSU offer is a big deal, and it made Jake realize, if that's not enough to sway me away from UVA, nothing will be.
So, he's got the ratings, he's got the offers. We'll assume for a minute he bulks up (he'll have to, to make it as a college DE) and stays on the defensive line. DE is a spot where right now a freshman can show up right away on the depth chart. There are seven on the roster and five on the depth chart - the only ones missing are Sean Gottschalk, who is out with mysterious health issues, and Tory Allen, whose redshirt is probably solidly attached to his person. If Gottschalk (a former Deep Run teammate of Snyder) returns, Snyder could redshirt unless he comes to camp and blows away guys like Jason Fuller and Zane Parr - not unthinkable, by the way. If Gottschalk doesn't, and Snyder stays at DE, you can look for him and Justin Renfrow to have a spirited competition and maybe be out there pretty quickly in 2009.
So it's time for something we haven't done in a while. Today's spotlight is on a guy who could be the best of the class.
Name: Jake Snyder
Position: DE
Hometown: Glen Allen
School: Deep Run
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 237
40: 4.8
ESPN: 78, #38 DE
Rivals: three stars, 5.7, #16 at "weakside defensive end" (but not to get too specific or anything)
Scout: three stars, #72 DE
Pay no attention to the Scout ranking on Snyder. As late as June 2, Scout hadn't rated Snyder, and neither for that matter had Rivals; the next day, he was a UVA commit, and thus the urgency to rate him went away. Rivals, though, still had their state-by-state rankings to compile, and when they did, Snyder came out none too shabby: 15th in the state of Virginia.
Snyder is a two-way player at Deep Run; on offense, he plays tight end. There haven't been any clear indicators of what he'll do when he gets to Charlottesville, but if Snyder gets his way he'll be on the defensive side of the ball. May not necessarily be at defensive end, though; 237 is not DE sized but it is perfect for the OLB in a 3-4.
The DE highlights have him shedding blocks pretty quick, and even dropping into pass coverage on occasion. (Did someone say linebacker?) He's got the talent. And you have to like the offer list. Tech offered, as you'd expect since he's one of the top recruits in the state, though we may have had a slight edge since Jake's brother Matt is a walk-on receiver here. Out of state, there was BC, Colorado, Penn State, Louisville and Purdue - good programs all. The big kahuna was the Ohio State offer - which was also the one that gave Jake the final push toward UVA. Getting an OSU offer is a big deal, and it made Jake realize, if that's not enough to sway me away from UVA, nothing will be.
So, he's got the ratings, he's got the offers. We'll assume for a minute he bulks up (he'll have to, to make it as a college DE) and stays on the defensive line. DE is a spot where right now a freshman can show up right away on the depth chart. There are seven on the roster and five on the depth chart - the only ones missing are Sean Gottschalk, who is out with mysterious health issues, and Tory Allen, whose redshirt is probably solidly attached to his person. If Gottschalk (a former Deep Run teammate of Snyder) returns, Snyder could redshirt unless he comes to camp and blows away guys like Jason Fuller and Zane Parr - not unthinkable, by the way. If Gottschalk doesn't, and Snyder stays at DE, you can look for him and Justin Renfrow to have a spirited competition and maybe be out there pretty quickly in 2009.
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