sweet ain't easy

The Sweet 16 is so easy and so hard at the same time.  All you have to do is win two games in one weekend.  How hard can that be?  Hard enough that 48 teams can't do it, though; following the play-in games, the cruelties of the tournament eliminate three-quarters of the participants in four days.  You get a lot of unhappy press conferences.

Sweet 16s are interesting partly for who's not in them.  The 1 and 2 seeds are viewed as these bracket titans, nigh-impossible to stop on the first weekend.  And why not?  These are teams that lost, like, twice a month at most.  And yet, since the expansion of the tournament to 64 teams, only three tourney fields have failed to knock out at least one 1 or 2 seed in the first weekend.  Those would be 1989, 1995, and 2009.  (And '09 was a really chalky tournament, notable for featuring all four 1, 2, and 3 seeds in the Sweet 16, but the 1/2 seed carnage in 1989's S16 was something to behold.)  This year didn't disappoint in the surprises department, punching out half of its 3 seeds, keeping the 12/5 faith alive, and delivering the 8th-ever 15/2 upset.  The list of teams-not-here is long and distinguished, even if you don't count the names that didn't even make the tourney (UCLA, Georgetown, Marquette).  Kentucky, Michigan State, Arizona - there's a lot of Final Fours represented there.  (30, if you were wondering.)

This is to say that even though UVA was "supposed" to make the Sweet 16, nothing is actually supposed to happen.  Ten of last year's 16 aren't here this year.  And so on and so forth.  It's minor compared to what could still happen, but the last senior class of the First Book of Tony does have something to hang its hat on.

-- Voters for the Wooden Award may or may not have turned in their ballots before the Butler game.  If they waited, what Malcolm Brogdon did to that game might just sway them.  Buddy Hield is a better scorer than Brogdon, so he's the front-runner, but goodness, how many teams in the nation possess a defensive weapon like what UVA unleashed on an unsuspecting Andrew Chrabascz?  24 points for Chrabascz before Brogdon started sitting on him, and zero field goals after.

-- Which itself is only half of the Malcolm Brogdon story.  Last year, right around this time, I was positing that Brogdon could take over games if he wanted to, but didn't because he didn't know he could.  I quote from my own season review: "He has it in him to be that clutch scorer who's there when you absolutely, positively need a bucket, and he's flashed that ability. If he figures that out, UVA might not lose a close game all year."  Well, UVA did lose close games - all of their losses are close - but the contrast between then and now couldn't be plainer.  UVA lost last year in this very same round because 1) they couldn't buy a three and 2) they didn't have anyone to say "eff it I'm goin' deep."  Brogdon has discovered his Eff-It Mode.  This is a guy who plays 39 out of 40 minutes, rarely fouls, destroys your best scorer, and can't be fouled, left any room to shoot a jumper, or successfully guarded by anyone either smaller or bigger than him.

-- This comes to attention partly because the sideline reporter for the Butler game actually asked Tony an intelligent question that elicited an insightful answer (about the Brogdon-on-Chrabascz matchup), which is a huge step up from the usual "tell me how you feel" nonsense.  Combined with the fact that Mike Kryz-that-guy actually gave his own sideline interview, I suspect something in the Official Powerade.

-- Putting Louisville in the bracket would've shuffled the whole thing, changed all the matchups, etc., so it'd be wrong to say, "just think how well the ACC would be doing if Louisville were here too."  But it is legitimate to be impressed that the ACC is 6 of 16 without even giving a chance to one of the top ten KenPom teams in the country.

-- I got my first look at the disappointing lacrosse team this past weekend.  It was not the disaster I expected, obviously, and two incredibly close losses to the top two teams in the ACC are a bummer, but also a clue that there's still a flicker of brilliance, somewhere.  One thing I didn't see was the goaltending that has been the #1 gripe on the boardz.  Matt Barrett was excellent, which you don't even need to have watched any lacrosse to know is a 180 from his previous outings.  It offered slight hope that a tourney berth can be salvaged, but UVA would have to win - oh, probably every game from here on out to make that happen.

game preview: Butler

Date/Time: Saturday, March 19; 7:10

TV: TBS

Record against the Bulldogs: 0-0

Last meeting: Never

Last game: UVA 81, HU 45 (3/17); Butler 71, TT 61 (3/17)

KenPom:

Tempo:
UVA: 61.2 (#351)
Butler: 68.9 (#169)

Offense:
UVA: 118.6 (#9)
Butler: 115.5 (#19)

Defense:
UVA: 91.7 (#4)
Butler: 101.1 (#116)

Pythag:
UVA: .9505 (#1)
Butler: .8233 (#37)

Projected lineups:

Virginia:

PG: London Perrantes (11.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 4.4 apg)
SG: Malcolm Brogdon (18.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.9 apg)
SG: Devon Hall (4.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.8 apg)
SF: Isaiah Wilkins (4.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.4 apg)
PF: Anthony Gill (13.4 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 0.7 apg)

Butler:

PG: Roosevelt Jones (13.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 4.8 apg)
SG: Kellen Dunham (16.5 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.5 apg)
SF: Kelan Martin (16.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.1 apg)
PF: Andrew Chrabascz (10.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.0 apg)
PF: Tyler Wideman (7.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 0.8 apg)

"Survive and advance" doesn't seem like the right phrase for a 31-point stompening, when a 1 seed treats a 16 seed like they're expected to.  But then you look at what happened to Sparty - which you can just bet that I'm completely sick about.  Torn up inside.**  Nothing is granted you at the Dance macabre.

To drive that point home, this reminder: It's nothing but good teams from here on out.  Even if UVA wins and draws Arkansas-Little Rock in the next round, those Trojans will have beaten both the 4 and 5 seeds.

UVA has never played Butler.  Playing them right after Hampton sounds like the most 1% path through the tournament ever; it's too bad there aren't certain other teams in the tourney we could play next.  We could drive our La Salle to our Citadel in the Hamptons and have the Butler waiting for us.

Matchups matter, team attributes matter, and these preview posts exist to discuss them, but the tao of the tournament is always this: the last game never matters.  Two years ago UVA made it to the Sweet 16 by curb-stomping Memphis, which ran counter to all the expectations after they had big trouble with 15-seed Coastal Carolina.  To get back to those heights this year, UVA has to play a whole new game.

-- UVA on offense

The interesting thing about Butler's defense is that there's absolutely nothing interesting about it.  Most of the time, you have some thing or another that the opponent is good at or bad at.  Butler is slightly good at rebounding and slightly good at getting steals, but there's no crazy good rebounder or ball thief driving those numbers.  Kelan Martin is the top board guy, and he's good, not great - and his likely defensive assignment will be Ike Wilkins, so UVA gets a small advantage by pulling him away from the rim a little on that end.  (It should also be noted that point guard Roosevelt Jones crashes the board much harder than any point guard we've seen, which throws off your blocking-out calculus quite a bit because your own point guard isn't going to do that on the offensive end.)

Butler is much bigger than Hampton, which you'd expect from a comparison between Big East and MEAC teams.  They have good size in the backcourt that can match UVA's; where Malcolm Brogdon went down in the post quite a bit on Thursday and even went back-to-the-basket, he probably won't do that Saturday.  They have enough size in the frontcourt, but not a lot of depth; Andrew Chrabascz and Tyler Wideman are the only players over 6'6".  Neither are great rebounders (Wideman is decent, but not great) and a lineup of Gill and Tobey at the same time will likely dominate the boards and get plenty of second chances.

We go back to those interestingly uninteresting stats, though.  The Bulldogs are the biggest "is what they is" team in college basketball.  They were rarely upset (one very tight loss to Marquette on the road) and rarely upset anyone (beat Seton Hall on the road and Purdue at a "neutral site" a few miles from their home court.)  Both those teams are already out of the tournament, and neither of those wins, nor that loss, really made anyone bat more than one eyelash.  Not only that, but Butler rarely allowed more than a point per possession to worse teams, or fewer than a point per to better teams.  It's hard to figure that UVA won't get its share of points as well.

-- UVA on defense

This side of the ball, Butler has a few things to talk about.  Starting with their 3-point shooting, which is just a shade under 40% as a team.  We all know that's the approved way to beat UVA, although it's also worth pointing out that shooting well from three doesn't guarantee you the win; ask Syracuse.

Kellen Dunham and Jordan Gathers are the top distance shooters by percentage, and Butler has one or the other on the floor at all times - though, rarely both.  (If the name Gathers rings an old bell, it should.  Jordan Gathers is the nephew of Loyola Marymount legend Hank Gathers.)  Almost everyone Butler trots out will attempt a three at some point, except for Tyler Wideman and, oddly, point guard Roosevelt Jones.  The only one who's something less than a threat to hit is Tyler Lewis (and if that name rings an old bell, it should too; Lewis is an NC State transfer, playing tournament games in his old home arena.)

Just because Jones doesn't shoot threes doesn't mean he's a pass-first (or pass-only) point guard; he loves to work off the dribble and has shot more twos than anyone on the team by far, including bigs Wideman and Chrabascz - combined.  (Well, almost - they've taken 342 two-pointers, Jones, 338.)  This is where the game will be won or lost.  Everyone knows you beat the pack-line by collapsing it into its natural tendency to try and cut off drives, then kicking to an open three shooter and knocking it down.  But if the pack-line is at its best, you won't even start that drive.  That's what UVA needs to do, because if Jones isn't driving, the threes dry up quite a bit.  I would guess that the game willl start with Brogdon on Dunham, but Tony will put him on Jones to break up Butler's rhythm on offense.

-- Outlook

Butler is solid.  They were 3-1 against OOC tournament teams, but 2-7 against Big East tourney teams.  They take care of the ball, don't foul much, take good shots, etc. - all the hallmarks of a tough out in the tournament - but also don't play great defense, which sooner or later is going to mean their elimination.  Sooner, it says here.  They didn't succeed in beating anyone you'd consider a national title contender, even an outside one.  What they can do well, UVA can do better.  Never say never to an upset, but now isn't the time to call for one.

Final score: UVA 75, Butler 66

**I am not.

2013 baseball recruiting class, part 1

I guess I usually do this closer to baseball season when the thought is still fresh in everyone's mind, but I didn't.  So we'll do it now.  It's our annual series in getting acquainted with the prospects that will grace UVA's roster as freshmen next season.  "Acquainted" is not an accidental choice of words; this can be an awfully imprecise exercise.  Probably the worst prediction I've ever made in five years of writing this blog is that Brandon Waddell would be "probably a future LOOGY or one-inning specialist."  That's about as far from "Friday starter" as it gets.  Sometimes I don't include everyone, because lists found on the Internet aren't up to the level of the comprehensive coverage of football recruiting, and sometimes guys leave unexpectedly before the season or the semester begin.  It's the sort of imprecision that every year makes me strongly consider not doing this, and every year deciding that I at least want to have it as a reference for when the season begins in seven or eight months.  On the plus side, the signing deadline is earlier than it was, so we don't have to stretch to August to find out if our signees are skipping school.

The class is a little smaller this year, which is unsurprising because of the small number of players lost to graduation/the draft.  BOC knows how to manage a roster.  Last year I had to make this a three-parter, but we're back to two this year and the entries are shorter than usual as well.

Tyler Allen - OF
Powhatan HS (VA)
Undrafted

The road to playing time next year for a freshman outfielder is nigh-impossible, so Tyler Allen is a name that'll have to be stashed in the long-term memory banks.  He's the only outfielder in the class, which is not too surprising; we have at least five legitimate candidates for playing time and even if Mike Papi moves to first base, the rest of the field is crowded with ouststanding hitters.  It'd be a huge surprise to see him in the lineup in 2014.

That said, though, Allen is a good all-around outfield prospect.  I wouldn't go so far as to call him "five-tool" because that carries some connotations of sky-high expectations, but Allen can hit, run, field, and throw, all with the skills to do so competitively in college.  He's fairly tall with good speed and a left-handed bat, and he could probably at least compete for time in center field when it's his turn.  Left field otherwise.  Like most college prospects, he's a .400 hitter, and he was player of the year in his district.  About half the class made a Rawlings all-region first team; Allen was one who did.  He's got great timing, too; in a 15-3 win this season, Allen hit two grand slams.  Nice display of power for his future coach; Brian O'Connor was in the stands for that one.

Allen will see the field sparingly, if at all, in 2014.  You'd expect that Brandon Downes and Derek Fisher will leave after next year, though, which opens the door.  Both left and center field will be open for competition in 2015, which is when Allen's time will come.

Alec Bettinger - RHP
CD Hylton HS (VA)
Undrafted

Bettinger is a summer-ball teammate of UVA's best-known prospect in this class, Connor Jones.  He's got a fastball that tops out around 90 and a good breaking ball.  Different coaches of his seem to have different ideas as to the effectiveness of his off-speed stuff and which is his better pitch and so on, so they sound like something that'll need honing before they're college-ready.  If Bettinger is eventually destined for the rotation, a stop in the bullpen on the way seems highly likely.  One possible obstacle for him will be his size; other than Whit Mayberry there aren't any heavily-used righties on UVA's staff shorter than 6'3; Bettinger stands just 6'0".  Lefties get more of a pass than righties on height and Bettinger will have to work hard to separate from the pack.

Adam Bleday - LHP
Titusville Area HS (PA)
Undrafted

Bleday is an interesting prospect; he's not big or super-athletic and as a pitcher, he's not by any means a hard thrower.  But he's a very good hitter (.429 batting average) who played center field as well as pitched for his high school team, and as a pitcher, his senior season saw him finish with an 0.18 ERA.  That means in the 38 innings he pitched, only one earned run crossed the plate.  He struck out 72 against only 12 walks.  In his junior year, he pitched a full 9 innings in one game (which qualifies as extra innings in high school) and struck out 23(!!) hitters.

Stuff-wise, he's sort of a typical lefty; fastball in the mid-80s at best, but with obviously excellent command and two other pitches that work well for him.  He's also small, even for a lefty.  With three good pitches, Bleday could get at least a look as a starter and might have that in his long-term future.  The competition for the 2014 starting rotation looks as wide open as it's ever been, and the field is stocked with veterans like Whit Mayberry and Artie Lewicki, so if a freshman can crack it, that freshman would have to be very impressive.  Mental makeup means a lot to BOC and Karl Kuhn, and we've got no way of knowing how that will go (which is why I make occasionally awful predictions like the Waddell one) but the fact is that the competition both in the rotation and among bullpen lefties is going to be strong in 2014.  It might be tough for a guy like Bleday to have a major role early, but long-term he should be in the thick of the race.  (Kind of the story of this freshman class, really.)

Tony Butler - INF
Sun Prairie HS (WI)
Undrafted

I wish there were more on Tony Butler, but he's been unfortunately injury-prone in his high school career.  He's had two surgeries already; one on his hand after his sophomore year and one this spring, on his shoulder after suffering a dislocation and torn labrum.  That injury cost him his senior year.

A shame, because he did some gaudy things as a junior.  He batted .521 as a shortstop, had an 0.78 ERA (three ER in 28 IP) as a pitcher, and tossed a no-hitter as well.  At least one publication, during the preseason, called him the best player in Wisconsin, and he played for the best team, too; his team was state champs in both 2012 and 2013.  This year, instead of playing, he coached.

Butler is one of the members of this class to make Rawlings's all-region first teams, and one of two infielders in the class.  The amount of playing time available for infielders will depend partly on what the coaches decide to do with Nick Howard; does he continue to play third base (where he's a little bit of a butcher with the glove) or does he focus on pitching full time?  John LaPrise may have the inside track on the vacated second base job, and we'll also be interested to see what we get out of George Ragsdale.  By virtue of being an infielder, though, and also by virtue of being pretty good, Butler stands to be one of the few freshmen with a solid path to some playing time in 2014.

Ben Carraway - RHP
Creekview HS (GA)
Undrafted

Yes, this is the year for younger brothers of former Hoo pitchers.  Ben's older brother is Andrew, one-time standout starter for UVA and current Seattle Mariners minor leaguer.  Carraway is otherwise somewhat overshadowed in this class; his fastball currently tops out around 88, low for a righty, and beyond that there's precious little information on him.  I would guess just based on that fastball that Carraway would have an uphill climb for innings, but with so little to go on, predictions are even dicier than usual.

***************************************************

For future reference, next week I go offline for three days and then return with the second half of this series and then the first of the preseason ACC football previews.  I feel like it's way too early for that shit but I have two more of them to do now and if I don't get an early start I'll never finish.  Even with just 11 to do (on top of, you know, actually focusing on our own team) they had a way of making August race past at the speed of sound.  The fall roster is out, so tomorrow there will be depth chart discussion as part of the previously-promised big recruiting picture post.