Showing posts with label wake forest. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wake forest. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

electricity shortage

Three games down without our Wooden candidate, three wins.  Not real pretty wins.  Kind of scrappy ones against teams probably not going to the tournament.  But, wins.

I'd say it's still unanswered, to what extent this team misses Justin Anderson.  There's no doubt they need him back.  But would those games still have been close and scruffy without him?  Anderson's absence isn't the reason the three-point shooters missed a whole bunch of open looks.  In the NC State and Wake games, they went 4-for-23, which is 17%.  It's not like they missed because Anderson wasn't on the floor, and it's small coincidence that the Pitt game had a more comfortable margin of victory and the Hoos shot 5-for-13, which is a very acceptable 38.5%.

On the other hand, would Anderson have had a better chance of hitting?  Or would the shot have been a more makeable one, a layup perhaps, if Anderson was in the game?  That'll never be answered.

The two Louisville games are exactly four weeks apart, so if Simba's a really fast healer, he'll be back for the second one.  Maybe it's the nagging paranoid in me, because that part of you never really goes away if you root for UVA, but the rest of the schedule seems booby-trapped.  FSU is actually the least of our concerns, I think.  Wake will get us at their place and no doubt they'll be awfully confident, seein's how they just almost beat us at ours.  VT is gonna be primed as well, though fortunately that's at home.  Syracuse is no easy place to win at.  And it was after Anderson went down that Louisville mounted a comeback; that one's a return road visit too.

At stake, besides tournament seeding and the chance to add a regular season title to the rafters, is avoiding bracketologist talk about whether UVA can be as legit as ever without Anderson.  The committee does take injuries into account, both positively and negatively.  If a guy misses time and then comes back, your losses during that time get a kinder eye.  If a guy won't be ready for the tournament, they penalize you.  Optimistically, I think Anderson will be back for the NCAAs, but you never know.  But if the winning streak continues, sans the team's most electric player, you can't ask for a better setup.

**************************************************

-- With about 47 seconds left, NC State fouled Brogdon; this was the very best of all possible outcomes.  Coaches aren't big on quick shots to try and get two-for-one on possessions at the end of a half (though this is a strategy mainly for the end of the first half; the second is too wild-cardy) so UVA was going to hold the ball as long as possible.  One likely outcome of that strategy is to not score and give NC State the chance to tie with a minimum of 12 seconds to work with.  Instead, UVA's best free-throw shooter got to head to the line with a chance to put UVA up two scores, and the Hoos were guaranteed another possession.

-- The announcers had this fixation on "free throw percentage in conference play."  I guess that's useful as a proxy for how you're shooting lately, but it's otherwise utterly nonsensical - it's not like you need to adjust free-throw shooting percentages for the quality of opponent.

-- How about Evan Nolte's drive and dish to Gill?  As with the Anderson miss against Duke, it felt like a game-turning play.  I think it's because Nolte is usually a bit less than assertive on offense, and is the player on the team who least resembles a smooth rim-driving point guard (and yes that includes Mike Tobey) so the sight of his bad-Hawaiian-shirt-wearing self making like Isiah Thomas was jarring enough to turn the game on its head.  And as it turned out, that was the last lead change of the game.

-- Center-court logos are trending in the obnoxiously huge direction, and never more so at NC State.  I know it's a classic old logo and all, but it is in fact the ugliest friggin' court in the whole country.  And since the whole midcourt line is almost completely obscured, it ought to be banned.

-- In case you've forgotten why everyone thinks Carolina media is the most shameless, shilling, and biased bunch of wretches in the whole country, enjoy this small passage from Stephen Schramm from the Fayetteville Observer:
The replays showed that Nolte had collided with N.C. State’s Caleb Martin. Much to Wolfpack coach Mark Gottfried’s dismay, the crew decided to call a flagrant foul on Martin.
Yeah, totally out of nowhere, I'm sure.  Much to Stephen Schramm's dismay, the cops decide he's at fault when a tree collides with his car.  The definition of a flagrant foul is "excessive and/or unnecessary contact" and plowing Nolte clearly qualifies.

-- Shifting gears to the Wake game: Last week I wrote about rewarding the big guy making the hustle play, and this week it happened again: Darion Atkins brick-walled a Wake defender trying to keep up with London Perrantes, and was rewarded by Perrantes with an easy layup.  The announcers did a nice job of pointing out the communication between Atkins and Perrantes on that play.

-- It's interesting that Tony didn't make an adjustment - or didn't appear to, anyway, though you never know what you miss - as Schnozz Mitoglou kept pounding away from the three-point line off of a simple pick-and-pop.  I think it's a philosophy thing - a gamble that a freshman on the road is less likely to keep making those than the ballhandler is to punish you for getting away from your hard hedge.

-- Malcolm's dunk.  MALCOLM'S.  DUNK.

-- As badly as Pitt and Wake shot free throws, I can't help but wonder if the students haven't figured out a distraction routine that actually works.

-- Much like with the Notre Dame game last year, the Hoos did a nice job of finding a tendency in the Pitt zone and attacking the bejeezus out of it.  And on one play, a different attack, but a really, really nice job by Isaiah Wilkins to set up an open shot.  Whether on purpose or just playing through the flow of the game, I don't know, but Wilkins did a great job of holding the ball just long enough to suck in the defense and then kick it back to the point, where Perrantes wasted no time finding the open shooter.  Pity Nolte missed the shot, but it was picture-perfect passing.

-- Does anyone else besides me think that Infiniti commercial is incredibly stupid?  Do people routinely make a habit of just blithely backing out the driveway and missing the BIG FKIN' YELLOW SCHOOL BUS rumbling down the road?  Are school buses difficult to see?  Is it hard to see a car coming down the totally empty parking lot lane?  The look on school bus lady's face is priceless: "Oh wow, if it hadn't been for those genius engineers at Infiniti, I would've gotten my two children messily killed in a school bus accident!"  Don't worry, honey: with observation skills like those, Junior and Juniorette will have their own permanent 6 x 3 plot any day now.

Probably like 1/3 of commercials on TV say the same thing: "Our customers are idiots.  If you're an idiot, you can be one of our customers too."

-- With the win over Pitt, UVA mathematically clinches a single bye in the ACC tournament, more than three weeks before it starts.

-- Yes, I read Myron Medcalf's moronic scribblings, and there's enough to say about that that it's worth a post all its own.  Wednesday night.

Monday, August 25, 2014

2014 season preview: Wake Forest Demon Deacons


Schedule:

8/28: @ Louisiana-Monroe (Thu.)
9/6: Gardner-Webb
9/13: @ Utah State
9/20: Army
9/27: @ Louisville
10/4: @ Florida State
10/11: BYE
10/18: Syracuse
10/25: Boston College
11/1: BYE
11/6: Clemson (Thu.)
11/15: @ NC State
11/22: Virginia Tech
11/29 @ Duke

Skip: Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia

2013 results:

Presbyterian: W, 31-7
Boston College: L, 24-10
Louisiana-Monroe: L, 21-19
Army: W, 25-11
Clemson: L, 56-7
NC State: W, 28-13
Maryland: W, 34-10
Miami: L, 24-21
Syracuse: L, 13-0
Florida State: L, 59-3
Duke: L, 28-21
Vanderbilt: L, 23-21

Record: 4-8 (2-6); 6th, Atlantic

Projected starters:

QB: John Wolford (Fr.)
RB: Orville Reynolds (Sr.)
WR: Matt James (5Sr.)
WR: E.J. Scott (5Sr.)
WR: Tyree Harris (So.)
TE: Devin Pike (Fr.)
LT: Antonio Ford (5Sr.)
LG: Cory Helms (So.)
C: A'Lique Terry (Fr.)
RG: Josh Harris (So.)
RT: Dylan Intemann (rJr.)

DE: Zachary Allen (5Sr.)
DT: Josh Banks (rSo.)
DT: Tylor Harris (Jr.)
DE: Desmond Floyd (rJr.)
LB: Brandon Chubb (rJr.)
LB: Marquel Lee (So.)
CB: Kevin Johnson (5Sr.)
CB: Merrill Noel (5Sr.)
RS: Hunter Williams (rJr.)
SS: Ryan Janvion (rSo.)
FS: Anthony Wooding (Sr.)

K: Chad Hedlund (rJr.)
P: Alex Kinal (Jr.)

(Italics indicate departed player.)

Coach: Dave Clawson (1st season)

Media prediction: 7th, Atlantic

All-ACC:

2013 1st team: DT Nikita Whitlock
2013 2nd team: WR Michael Campanaro
2013 3rd team: none
2013 HM: CB Kevin Johnson, S Ryan Janvion
2014 preseason: none

The Jim Grobe era is over at Wake Forest.  Grobe's heyday, in the middle of the last decade, saw the Deacons win an ACC title and go to three straight bowls, but they went to just one in the last five years and Grobe's win total declined from six to five to four in the last three.  Dave Clawson was plucked from Bowling Green to bring his no-huddle offense to Winston-Salem, and he faces a very large rebuilding challenge in his first year.

-- Offense

Evidence of that rebuilding project is under center, where true freshman John Wolford won the job in fall camp after the only other experienced option, Tyler Cameron, had a miserable beginning to go with a miserable spring.  Cameron wasn't all that good in spot duty last year, either, meaning that Wake gives VT a serious run for their money for worst quarterback situation.

Quite a bit will be placed on Wolford's shoulders, because Wake had hardly any running game last year and doesn't look like they'll have much this year, either.  Hardly anyone with any production to speak of returns; the leading returning rusher is Dominique Gibson with 138 yards and a 2.6 ypc average, but the starting role for now looks like it belongs to senior Orville Reynolds, who has bounced back and forth between receiver and tailback during his career.  Reynolds caught 12 passes last year as a receiver, but his best season carrying the ball was back in 2011.

Wake loses all-conference receiver Michael Campanaro, and nobody with more than 23 catches returns - which by the way, was good for second on the team last year.  That's possession receiver Tyree Harris, who, along with sophomore Jared Crump, owns most of Wake's returning production in the pass-catching department.  Clawson intends to use fifth-year senior Matt James rather heavily; James has eight receptions over three years in his career so far.  Wake is also getting reinforcements in the form of E.J. Scott, who was rather disappointingly underused at UVA and should give the receiving corps at Wake a talent boost.  At tight end, the position battle is so totally up in the air - and not helped by contender Zach Gordon's spinal injury that might end his football career - that true freshman Devin Pike is as good a guess as any for the job.

The offensive line also sees a true freshman jump into the most crucial position, as A'Lique Terry appears to have won the center job in fall camp.  That pushes last year's starter, Cory Helms, over to left guard.  Wake has apparently settled on Antonio Ford as the left tackle; Ford has some starts under his belt, but some are at guard rather than tackle, and he's not yet been able to hold on to a starting job for a full season.  Right guard Josh Harris (no relation to the running back that just graduated) got one start last year as a true freshman, but not a ton of snaps over the course of the season overall.  The only returning player to have started all 12 games last year is RT Dylan Intemann, making him essentially the default anchor for the line.  Wake does have Tyler Hayworth to fall back on should they need to make a change; Hayworth started eight games in 2013 as a true freshman.

Still, this line is awfully scary and it's still by far the most experienced and steady position unit on the offense.  There's honestly no reason to believe this offense can be at all consistent or productive.  Wait til next year with this group.

-- Defense

There's more hope here than on the other side of the ball, despite a totally rebuilt defensive line.  Wake is making a drastic change from a 3-4 to a 4-2-5, which moves linebacker Zachary Allen up to the defensive line to play end.  Allen missed last season after being ruled ineligible to play in 2013; before that, he was gearing up for a breakout season, and could yet have one this year.  Allen had already played with his hand on the ground quite a bit in the 3-4.  The other end of the line is a bit up in the air, with junior Desmond Floyd being just about the only experienced option but being pushed by a pair of redshirt freshmen and rather in danger of being passed up if he can't get (and stay) healthy.  Wendell Dunn is getting the biggest shot at taking that job from Floyd.  Up the middle, the Deacs likely don't have a prayer of replacing the outstanding production they got from Nikita Whitlock.  Prospective starters Josh Banks and Tylor Harris are coming from fringe rotation roles.  Banks, at least, flashed some playmaking ability last year as a reserve, collecting a sack and forcing a fumble as well.

Linebacker is a mite thin due to the change to the nickel defense, but Brandon Chubb does give the Deacs an anchoring presence.  Chubb had 88 tackles playing in the middle last year, and he'll play next to sophomore Marquel Lee.  Lee is only a sophomore and doesn't have a lot of experience, but his is a name that pops up a lot when the Wake coaches talk about which new contributors excite them.

The secondary, though, will be the strength of the defense.  Cornerbacks Kevin Johnson and Merrill Noel each have a whole load of experience, and each intercepted three passes last year.  There's a lot to choose from at safety, too.  Former outside linebacker and walk-on Hunter Williams will play the rover position that characterizes the 4-2-5; Williams stepped into the starting lineup early last season and never let go of the job.  Wake also got solid work from Anthony Wooding last year, who was a starter at Air Force before transferring to Wake.  Wooding started four games for the Deacs, and is working to hold off sophomore Thomas Brown, who looks to have a bright future ahead, for his starting role.  The prize of the safety corps, though, is sophomore Ryan Janvion, who had a real breakout freshman season last year, leading the team in tackles last year with 95.

It's a strong-looking back seven, and it stacks up favorably against a lot that the league has to offer; the biggest question is for the pass rushers, because of their 23 sacks last year, Wake returns precious few of them.  Nobody with more than one, in fact.  The defensive line needs to grow up fast.  There's good coverage in the back, but the line is staking its name almost entirely on potential right now.

-- Special teams

Punter Alex Kinal is a busy boy; if he keeps up at the pace he's been going, he'll smash the NCAA record for most punts in a career sometime in the 2015 season.  He only gets 40 yards even per punt, but maybe his leg is tired.  With this offense, it looks like he'll pile up plenty more chances this year.  Chad Hedlund was only 8-for-12 on field goals last year and is locked in a battle with freshman Adam Centers for that job.

-- Outlook

Not so good, as the eight ball says.  It's gotten to where people whisper occasionally about a winless season.  That would require a loss to Gardner-Webb, which is sort of preposterous because the defense is worth a few wins and is not going to lose to Gardner-Webb.  That said, you could see this gang going 2-2 in the OOC.  And then, a fairly tough ACC crossover schedule comprised of the defending Coastal champ and VT, to go along with the Atlantic sked.  Even though I think the defense is decent, it's not going to be enough to keep Wake in the hunt most weeks.  An 0-8 ACC season is entirely within the realm of possibility, because it's really hard to see where they'll find a win.  Bowling is not in the cards, to say the least.

Monday, January 13, 2014

season preview: Wake Forest



Media prediction: 13th of 15

Last season:

Record: 13-18 (6-12); ACC 10th seed
Postseason: none
KenPom: 134th of 347

Returning scoring: 67.1%
Returning rebounding: 82.6%
Returning assists: 71.9%

2012-2013 all-ACC:

1st team: none
2nd team: none
3rd team: none
HM: G C.J. Harris, F Travis McKie
Defensive: none
Rookie: F Devin Thomas

(Italics indicate departed player.)

Starting lineup:

PG: Codi Miller-McIntyre (So.)
SG: Madison Jones (So.)
SF: Travis McKie (Sr.)
PF: Devin Thomas (So.)
PF: Tyler Cavanaugh (So.)

Bench:

G Coron Williams (5Sr.)
F Arnaud William Adala Moto (So.)
F Aaron Rountree (So.)
C Andre Washington (So.)
G Miles Overton (Fr.)

Coach: Jeff Bzdelik (4th season)

ACC schedule:

Twice: Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, NC State
Once: Boston College, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Would it be wrong to call the Deacons' lineup....sophomoric?  I know the word has a totally different meaning, but honestly, it's hard to think of a team with more weird imbalance than Wake Forest - they list 17 players on their roster and 11 are sophomores.  The majority, not the plurality, of the team.  I'm not going to bother researching how many are scholarship players, but I'm guessing at least the ones in the rotation, which number seven.  More than half the scholarship allotment.

For a little while, Wake had been two players and eleven nobodies.  The two players were C.J. Harris and Travis McKie.  Harris is gone now and McKie is one of only two seniors on the roster (the other being graduate transfer Coron Williams) so you'd think McKie would be taking over the stat sheet.  Jeff Bzdelik's Wake teams have always had some questionable usage rates, though, and McKie, despite being a very efficient scorer and the star in the past, has been reduced to a role player.  With the ball in his hands, he's an athletic player who can score in a variety of ways, though neither is he unstoppable.

Williams is doing a lot of scoring for Wake despite coming off the bench mostly; he's a deadeye three-point shooter and a smart veteran player who has always taken care of the ball well, largely by being a catch-and-shoot player who doesn't fool around with getting too fancy.  The starting guards, Codi Miller-McIntyre and Madison Jones, share a lot of the ballhandling duties such that it's not quite accurate to call Miller-McIntyre the point guard.  Jones largely eschews the jump shot, shooting almost exclusively on layup attempts (and not getting many of those either), while Miller-McIntyre will shoot from anywhere.  Miller-McIntyre is the team's leading scorer, but his efficiency drops off a ton beyond the arc.

Up front, Devin Thomas is the most important player, the team's top rebounding presence by far and an able though not overpowering scorer.  There's some help, too, from Tyler Cavanaugh and Arnaud William Adala Moto, the latter being a strong defender and rebounder while Cavanaugh plays a little more of a perimeter game despite being a pretty bad three-point shooter.  Wake only gives a few minutes a game to center Andre Washington, but when he's in he's a shot-block factory, racking up almost two per game in less than ten minutes.

You wouldn't know it from the licking the Hoos laid on them a little while back, but Wake has been playing reasonably solid defense this year.  Holding them back is an anemic offense; the Deacons get nothing out of Madison Jones and lack a true inside scoring threat.  Thomas is as good as it gets there, and while he's not terrible, he's not the kind of guy you need to pay special attention too.  Bzdelik doesn't really seem to know who his top offensive options are, allowing less efficient players like Thomas to dominate the usage rates while McKie and Williams languish.  Wake is a faster-paced team, masking their offensive struggles.  They're going to have to scratch and claw their way to .500 in the conference and will probably fall short; the best case for their season is a very low NIT seed or a CBI bid (which they might turn down, since schools have to pay their own costs in that tournament.)  Better than the past few years, but not likely to make the Buzz Off movement go away either.

*********************************************************

Raise your hand if you think Duke has about ten thousand horseshoes crammed up the rear end of every occupant of a Cameron seat, and twice that many for the players themselves.  Yup, that's all of you.  It is the only conceivable way Rasheed Sulaimon can brick the game-winning shot so badly, and still make it.

Had UVA been able to put home a few layups here and there, however, there might have been no opportunity for a game-winner by Duke.  The athleticism gap between Duke and the teams UVA has played thus far is palpable; nevertheless, the battling attitude from the Hoos was extremely heartening.  I don't just mean the last four minutes; Duke must have had six or seven different double-digit leads through the game and the Hoos chipped away at all of them.

Another layup here or there, a couple missed threes by Duke (who shot .455 from long-range, not a crazy number but somewhat above average) and UVA is walking away with a win - at Cameron, where the noise was still noisy but seemed relegated to the background.  Duke's athletic, in-the-grill defense (no doubt partly inspired by some matador efforts of late) threw UVA off far more than the vaunted atmosphere.  If we meet again in the ACC tournament - well, I'm not stupid enough to guarantee anything, but neither would anyone feel all that comfortable picking Duke.

Thursday, January 9, 2014

season preview: Pittsburgh


Media prediction: 6th of 15

Last season:

Record: 24-9 (12-6); Big East 4th seed
Postseason: NCAA 8 seed; lost in first round
KenPom: 11th of 347

Returning scoring: 48.8%
Returning rebounding: 46.3%
Returning assists: 51.8%

2012-2013 all-ACC:

1st team: none
2nd team: none
3rd team: none
HM: none
Defensive: none
Rookie: none

(Italics indicate departed player.)

Starting lineup:

PG: James Robinson (So.)
SG: Cameron Wright (rJr.)
SF: Lamar Patterson (5Sr.)
PF: Michael Young (Fr.)
PF: Talib Zanna (5Sr.)

Bench:

F Durand Johnson (rSo.)
F Jamel Artis (Fr.)
G Josh Newkirk (Fr.)
F Derrick Randall (Jr.)
F Chris Jones (rFr.)

Coach: Jamie Dixon (11th season)

ACC schedule:

Twice: Clemson, Maryland, NC State, Syracuse
Once: Boston College, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

One of the ACC's newest additions should instantly become one of its top teams.  Jamie Dixon has only failed to take Pitt to the NCAAs once, and that year the Panthers earned a trophy for their case in the CBI.  So they'll be a major challenge every year.

The star of this year's team is small forward Lamar Patterson, blossoming in his senior year.  Patterson averaged exactly 10 points a game last year and was one of Pitt's primary scorers, but he's on a new level this year; not only does he lead the team in scoring at over 17 points a game, but he leads the team in assists, too.  Patterson is shooting almost .600 from two and well over .400 from three.  On defense, he gets quite a few steals, and doesn't foul.  Among the best all-around players in the league.

Patterson gets good help in the scoring department from shooting guard Cameron Wright and power forward Talib Zanna.  Both are efficient shooters, and Zanna is a top rebounder while Wright has a steal percentage of nearly 5%, good for 18th in the country.  Point guard James Robinson, a former UVA recruit, plays more in the background when it comes to scoring but has an outstanding A/T ratio of over 5.1/1.  Rounding out the starting lineup is freshman forward Michael Young, playing for now the role of glue guy and doing it very well.

Off the bench, sixth man Durand Johnson is primarily a scorer, and one of the team's best free-throw shooters on a team full of good ones.  Pitt's bench is mainly forwards; Johnson and Chris Jones play the three, with Johnson occasionally asked to guard the four.  Jamel Artis and Derrick Randall are fours.  Pittsburgh lacks a true center and its only real guard off the bench is back PG Josh Newkirk, who is a big step down from Robinson.

The slightly skewed lineup hasn't mattered much.  This is one of the most efficient offenses in the country, averaging 1.18 points a possession.  They have the 300th-fastest tempo but are 88th in points per game.  They've been just as good on defense, and nearly every one of their games has been an easy win, including the first two of the ACC season.  (The one exception: a 44-43 loss to Cincinnati with the absurdly slow tempo of 48 possessions.)  No doubt that Pitt is among the strongest contenders for the ACC title this year, and - though the nonconference schedule was pretty light on resume-building - should earn a high seed in the tournament.

********************************************************

Apparently our own team didn't like losing to Tennessee in the fashion that it did.  Tony Bennett restructured the offense some, the players refocused on defense, and the result was a win in a place the Hoos hadn't won in a decade followed by going to town on Wake Forest.

No particular offensive style - or player - dominated UVA's scoring; there were threes, dunks, drives, a few midrange jumpers, and I consider this a good sign.  Getting the whole team involved is so key that it's cliche, but at the same time, if you can win without having to rely on a barrage of threes or a particular weakness in the opposing defense, it's a more sustainable path to success.

This is UVA, so we'll always find something to complain about; in this case, it's Mike Tobey's 3-for-11 shooting night.  Myself I was happy about a second-half bucket out of him which was so ugly it was beautiful.  Ugly baskets are what people want to see out of Tobey, and he missed, had it blocked, nearly lost it out of bounds, fought three Deacons for the rebounds, and finally finished.  Big men are always behind in their development because so often they didn't get to be that size til their junior or even senior year of high school, so they're not used to it; Tobey is still in that phase, having added those 40 pounds in the offseason.  That he's still figuring out his strength is no surprise.

Besides maybe a nice Teven Jones feed to Darion Atkins, or Joe Harris's half-ending three-pointer, how many other plays stand out from the game?  Not that many - and like I said, I think that's a good thing.  A good team should be brutally efficient, and that game was a meat grinder.  We'll see if the team can keep it up; at their best, they're better than most of this ACC.

Tuesday, January 7, 2014

game preview: Wake Forest


Date/Time: Wednesday, January 8; 7:00

TV: ESPN3

Record against the Deacs: 60-70

Last meeting: Wake 55, UVA 52; 1/9/13, Winston-Salem

Last game: UVA 62, FSU 50 (1/4); Wake 73, UNC 67 (1/5)

KenPom:

Tempo:
UVA: 63.2 (#341)
Wake: 69.8 (#89)

Offense:
UVA: 105.2 (#145)
Wake: 103.8 (#178)

Defense:
UVA: 89.9 (#5)
Wake: 95.1 (#29)

Pythag:
UVA: .8584 (#32)
Wake: .7319 (#75)

Projected lineups:

Virginia:

PG: London Perrantes (4.5 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 3.1 apg)
SG: Malcolm Brogdon (9.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.8 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (10.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.0 apg)
PF: Akil Mitchell (6.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.4 apg)
C: Mike Tobey (6.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 0.1 apg)

Wake Forest:

PG: Codi Miller-McIntyre (16.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 4.0 apg)
SG: Madison Jones (4.3 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 3.6 apg)
SF: Travis McKie (10.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.7 apg)
PF: Devin Thomas (11.4 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 1.5 apg)
PF: Tyler Cavanaugh (9.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 0.8 apg)

The Hoos got the ACC season off on the right foot, as they've done every year under Tony Bennett.  Now they need to avoid the pitfall.  Wake Forest wasn't a well-regarded team in the preseason, and their coach is among the most besieged in the ACC.  The fire-that-guy movement is called Buzz Off, and the media has been seen at times openly wondering how Jeff Bzdelik is being allowed a much, much larger cushion for error than Dino Gaudio ever was.  The Deacons did, though, just knock off the talented but mercurial Tar Heels this weekend, so UVA should have in that all the wake-up call it needs.

-- UVA on offense

Let me just admit right now that instead of getting a better handle on Tony's philosophy for his starting lineup as time goes on, it's just the opposite.  I have no idea.  I haven't had any idea since the start of the season.  Best guess is that it's based on matchup; personally I've taken to simply assuming the starting lineup will be the same as last game, which is probably the exact wrong tack to take.

It might work here, though; Akil Mitchell, having been banished from the starting lineup temporarily, responded well to that and played a solid game against FSU.  Except from the stripe, obviously.  Plus, we don't really know whether Joe Harris will be available.  Mike Tobey, probably; he returned to the game and didn't seem limited.  Harris might be replaced by Justin Anderson - you never know with concussions and Tony's not going to broadcast his status.

Perhaps a bit surprisingly for a coach that's been piling up losses in his tenure, Bzdelik has the Deacons playing pretty good defense.  UNC was limited to .91 points per possession.  Wake's guards play conservatively; the Deacons don't look to force steals and their backcourt is rarely in foul trouble.  Though Wake's tempo is among the higher ones in the country, their defensive style should suit UVA's ballhandlers fine, since the Hoos don't force things either.

Wake's frontcourt, however, plays aggressively, which probably won't suit us just fine, because they're happy to make you earn your points at the line.  They foul a lot and block a lot of shots.  Backup center Andre Washington has 27 blocks this year, which is amazing given his fewer than 10 minutes per game.  This translates to a block percentage of 19.5% - in other words, when he's on the floor, he'll block one of every five of your shots.  Long-armed wing Travis McKie is also an effective shot-blocker; bench forward Arnaud William Adala Moto, on the other hand, has one block all season and a zillion fouls.  Which is still likely to keep points off the board when you shoot free throws as badly as UVA does.

At least one or two Wake forwards will probably be in foul trouble, but they're pretty deep there.  UVA might be best advised to use its size at guard to see if they can't get a Wake Forest guard into foul trouble.  Regardless of how Wake sets up their defense, UVA will find itself with a size mismatch somewhere in the backcourt; Codi Miller-McIntyre is 6'3" but Madison Jones and third guard Coron Williams are only 6'1".  Wake doesn't give up a lot of threes, but Brogdon, Harris, and/or Justin Anderson may find room to shoot over them or perhaps post up on a defender.

All this said, Wake is coming off one of the best defensive efforts UNC has seen all season.  It certainly didn't help the Heels that they shot 2-for-15 from three and turned it over 17 times, but still.  The big key: free throws.  Wake will send you to the line; if you hit those shots, you can keep them at arm's length on the scoreboard.  If not, they're happy to lull you into the idea of throwing the ball inside and then hacking away; they've got the depth for it.

-- UVA on defense

A big reason for Wake's improvement this season (their 11 wins are just two fewer than they had all last year) is a more well-rounded offensive attack.  They aren't great, and they still have a habit of running the show through the wrong players.  Travis McKie has taken the fourth-most shots on the team when he should be top two at least.  But they're improving.

They start the offense with basically two point guards in Codi Miller-McIntyre and Madison Jones.  I started to call them interchangeable but that's not right; Miller-McIntyre takes way more shots and turns the ball over way less.  He's the lead scorer and likes to shoot from anywhere: the rim, midrange, three.  Jones also gets involved in the distribution; Bzdelik likes back-door cuts and will run them regardless of which guard has the ball in his hands.  But Jones shoots much less and is an absolutely pathetic free-throw shooter.

Wake goes to Devin Thomas primarily for frontcourt scoring.  He's a strong player and quite a bit more efficient than last year, but he's another one you can and should hack and allow no easy shots to.  Tyler Cavanaugh is the other starting forward down low, but his game is quite a bit more perimeter-based than Thomas, who functions essentially as a center.

For three-point shooting, Coron Williams is the guy the Deacs lean on the most; he's a transfer from Robert Morris who's shooting .424 from long range in his career and has never had a season below 41%.  He's a major threat and shouldn't be left alone, but the only other one worth paying attention to when they're behind the arc is McKie.

The way to deal with Wake is basically identical to the way they deal with you.  Hack and smash their forwards (and Jones); none of 'em can shoot free throws.  Wake is even worse as a team than UVA is.  Lay off their guards and dare them to pass inside.  Miller-McIntyre will score because he looks for his shot; he consistently takes 12-14 a game.  McKie will score some because he's very athletic.  They can't carry the team without contributions from down low, though.  When Williams is out of the game, the defense can sag away deep without having to respect the three too much.  Overall it's a fairly good matchup for UVA.

-- Outlook

The Hoos definitely need to be wary of a team that just knocked off North Carolina.  But I'm glad they did; it means UVA won't overlook them with a trip to Duke fast approaching.  Getting a team coming off a big home upset that now has to get on a bus and go on the road themselves - it's the Deacs that will have to guard against the psychological pitfalls.  UVA should be expected to take care of business here, and if they hit free throws, they could do so fairly comfortably.

Final score: UVA 63, Wake 56

Friday, August 23, 2013

season preview; Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Schedule:

8/29: Presbyterian (Thu.)
9/6: Boston College (Fri.)
9/14: Louisiana-Monroe
9/21: @ Army
9/28: @ Clemson
10/5: NC State
10/12: BYE
10/19: Maryland
10/26: @ Miami
11/2: @ Syracuse
11/9: Florida State
11/16: BYE
11/23: Duke
11/30: @ Vanderbilt

Skip: Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech

2012 results:

Liberty: W, 20-17
North Carolina: W, 28-27
Florida State: L, 52-0
Army: W, 49-37
Duke: L, 34-27
Maryland: L, 19-14
Virginia: W, 16-10
Clemson: L, 42-13
Boston College: W, 28-14
NC State: L, 37-6
Notre Dame: L, 38-0
Vanderbilt: L, 55-21

Record: 5-7 (3-5); 4th of 6, Atlantic Division

Projected starters:

QB: Tanner Price (Sr.)
RB: Josh Harris (5Sr.)
FB: Jordan Garside (rJr.)
WR: Michael Campanaro (5Sr.)
WR: Brandon Terry (rJr.)
TE: Spencer Bishop (5Sr.)
LT: Dylan Intemann (rSo.)
LG: Tyler Hayworth (rFr.)
C: Whit Barnes (5Sr.)
RG: Frank Souza (5Sr.)
RT: Will Smith (rFr.)

DE: Kris Redding (5Sr.)
DT: Nikita Whitlock (5Sr.)
DE: Zach Thompson (5Sr.)
OLB: Zachary Allen (rJr.)
ILB: Mike Olson (5Sr.)
ILB: Brandon Chubb (rSo.)
OLB: Justin Jackson (5Sr.)
CB: Merrill Noel (rJr.)
CB: Kevin Johnson (rJr.)
FS: A.J. Marshall (Sr.)
SS: Ryan Janvion (rFr.)

K: Chad Hedlund (rSo.)
P: Alexander Kinal (rSo.)

(Italics indicate new starter.)

Coach: Jim Grobe, 13th season

Media prediction: 4th of 7, Atlantic Division

All-ACC:

2012 1st team: none
2012 2nd team: WR Michael Campanaro, DT Nikita Whitlock
2012 HM: P Alexander Kinal
2013 preseason: WR Michael Campanaro, DT Nikita Whitlock

(Italics indicate departed player.)

A pretty nondescript season for Wake last year.  Ultimately, a loss to Maryland cost them bowl eligibility, but they did show up at 5-4 at one point and couldn't close the deal in the final three weeks.  Jim Grobe is the conference's second-most tenured head coach - nobody but Frank Beamer even has half his years in their current job - but his seat might be getting just a touch warm, as Wake has only gone to one bowl since (and including) the 2009 season.  Grobe's record at Wake fell below .500 last season; it might be hard to reverse that trend this year.

-- Offense

Wake got big news a few days ago when it learned that the NCAA had approved a waiver request for Josh Harris to be academically eligible this season.  (Something to do with his academic advisor signing him up for a class that he needed but neglecting to tell him.)  Without Harris, Wake would've been down to DeAndre Martin and nothing at all at tailback - they even lost to injury a cornerback they'd moved to RB to try and replace Harris.  Harris and Martin combined for 1,000+ yards last year, and Harris is clearly the more skilled player.

The Deacons need a good running game to be successful, because quarterback Tanner Price is a game manager, not a game winner.  As a senior this year he should be effective in that role, but he averaged a very low 5.6 yards per attempt last year.  There just isn't much of a downfield passing game.  Michael Campanaro is an extremely dependable receiver; one of the ACC's best, in actuality, but not an explosive gamebreaker.  The Deacs hope that Brandon Terry can be the downfield threat that opens things up a little for Campanaro.  Terry only had 15 catches last year but averaged almost 20 yards apiece on those receptions.

The passing game will also take a hit in losing fullback Tommy Bohanan to the NFL; Bohanan was an accomplished pass-catcher, and his replacement, Jordan Garside, won't be quite as adept.  There's no help at tight end, either, where Spencer Bishop is almost strictly an extra run-blocker.

Offensive line is looking awfully scary at the moment, as Wake has been absolutely slammed by injury there.  At points this fall they've had only eight linemen available for practice, many of them freshmen.  Antonio Ford broke a leg in the spring and Steven Chase has been dealing with a torn ACL and meniscus for a year now; both would be in the mix - if not starters - if they were healthy.

There are some bright spots.  Whit Barnes is an experienced player who moves to center for this seasn, and Frank Souza did a very nice job at right guard last season after being moved from the D-line.  Dylan Intemann was pressed into duty as a starting left tackle last year, his redshirt freshman season, and could have a bright future in front of him.  At left guard and right tackle, Wake will likely start the season with redshirt freshmen Tyler Hayworth and Will Smith - there are precious few other options.

If Ford and/or Chase get back, the line could step toward respectability - or at least, be a little deeper.  But as it stands now, Wake's skill players are good, not great, and not enough to overcome the major issues on that line.  They're also good enough to take advantage if they have a good foundation up front, so, even more so than many teams, Wake will go as far, and only as far, as their line allows.

-- Defense

A lot of teams would envy having a defensive line full of fifth-year seniors, which is exactly how Wake Forest finds itself this year.  Unlike many 3-4 linemen, these guys are very active participants in the tackling derby.  Nikita Whitlock is among the top defensive tackles in the league, and Zach Thompson is a very underrated defensive end.  Kris Redding does a very good job holding his own opposite Thompson as well.  The play of these three has done wonders for the Wake Forest defense and made the jobs of the linebackers quite a bit easier, freeing them up to be aggressive and find their way to the backfield.

Wake does have to replace a few starters among the linebackers, but they get back playmaking OLB Justin Jackson, the team's tackle and sack leader last year (the latter stat being tied with Thompson.)  ILB Mike Olson was second behind Jackson in tackles, and with one fewer game.  Moving into the starting lineup this year is Zachary Allen, who had 42 tackles off the bench last season.  Brandon Chubb also had a good season off the bench last year as a redshirt freshman; these two should have Wake moving on without a hitch at linebacker.

The secondary took a hit when the team dismissed safety Duran Lowe a few days ago for the old "violation of team rules."  They're awaiting word from the NCAA on the status of Anthony Wooding, a transfer from Air Force; if Wooding is allowed to play this season, he's the likely starter at strong safety.  If not, the Deacons will probably turn to Ryan Janvion, a redshirt freshman, and deal with a very thin safety corps.  Free safety A.J. Marshall had two interceptions last year and will be heavily depended upon as well.

At cornerback there are two very good-looking juniors in Merrill Noel and Kevin Johnson.  Johnson shined last year, with 18 passes defended (including three picks) and Noel was a bit hampered by injury following a 2011 season in which he made everyone's list for freshman all-American.  Nevertheless, Wake's pass defense was among the worst in the conference last year, and it needs both better safety depth and a return to form for Noel to improve upon that.

-- Special teams

Punter Alexander Kinal, as a redshirt freshman last season, averaged 40.7 yards per punt and was honorable mention all-conference last year.  Chad Hedlund took over the placekicking job from Jimmy Newman midway through last season, though the Deacons didn't attempt a field goal at all during the last five games.

-- Outlook

There are some big issues here on the offense, most of them dealing with the O-line.  The pass defense needs to improve too.  And Tanner Price is capable but doesn't strike fear into anyone as a quarterback.  However, the Atlantic Division isn't exactly full of contenders after the top two.  Wake could start the season 4-0 without too much imagination required, and just needs to win a couple more winnable games to get themselves back to the postseason.  They should be able to pull off a 6 or 7 win season, though there also isn't much margin for error for them to drop to 5-7 again.

*******************************************

In case you're wondering, I'm back from my European holiday.  This post is live and not pre-written for your pleasure.  And Paris is awesome, thank you very much.  I will have an ACC preview later tonight or this weekend sometime.  Monday, I'll look over some of the stuff that happened while I was away (and if you're good, share some pictures too.)  Tuesday and Wednesday will be the long-awaited preview of UVA's own season, and Thursday is - finally - game preview time.

Tuesday, January 8, 2013

game preview: Wake Forest


Date/Time: Wednesday, January 9; 9:00

TV: RSN, ESPN3

Record against the Deacons: 59-69

Last meeting: UVA 68, Wake 44; 2/8/12, Charlottesville

Last game: UVA 61, UNC 52 (1/6); Duke 80, Wake 62 (1/5)

KenPom stats:

Tempo:
UVA: 60.2 (#344)
WF: 69.0 (#89)

Offense:
UVA: 104.8 (#85)
WF: 100.4 (#151)

Defense:
UVA: 86.7 (#14)
WF: 99.2 (#172)

Pythag:
UVA: .8751 (#27)
WF: .5301 (#156)

Projected starters:

Virginia:

PG: Teven Jones (4.3 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 2.3 apg)
SG: Paul Jesperson (4.6 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.5 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (15.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.4 apg)
PF: Akil Mitchell (12.8 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 1.9 apg)
PF: Darion Atkins (7.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 0.6 apg)

Wake Forest:

PG: Codi Miller-McIntyre (8.5 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.8 apg)
SG: C.J. Harris (14.6 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 2.0 apg)
SF: Travis McKie (15.1 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.1 apg)
PF: Devin Thomas (6.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.3 apg)
PF: Arnaud Adala Moto (4.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 0.2 apg)

Coming off a big win, the Hoos are in great shape these days.  Slaying the Carolina dragon will never get old, but in a way, an even bigger opportunity looms on Wednesday.  The RPI formula heavily rewards road wins, and the road is exactly where UVA is going, to play one of the conference's weakest teams.  A win could be worth a 15-rank leap in the ol' RPI; a loss could mean a 20-rank plunge.

-- UVA on offense

Left up in the air at this point, as it probably will be until about 30 minutes from tip-off, is Akil Mitchell's status.  If he doesn't start, I would hazard a guess that Evan Nolte moves into the starting lineup, but only Tony Bennett knows what he's thinking in that regard.

Probably the biggest threat that UVA will face offensively is Wake's freshman forward Devin Thomas.  Thomas can match Mitchell and Darion Atkins in size and is a good shot-blocker.  Thomas and Travis McKie both rebound well.  Fortunately for the Hoos, Thomas at 6'9", 240 is as big as the Deacons get.  6'8" beanpole forward Aaron Rountree can also get up and block shots, but Rountree sits at the bottom of the rotation and only averaged 6.5 minutes in their last two games.

In the backcourt, reserve guard Madison Jones is an interesting case: Jones is only 6'1" yet is third on the team in blocked shots with nine.  Jones is a gambler; he can get steals but will also foul.  Wake's other guards prefer to play conservative defense, rarely fouling and rarely causing turnovers.  Most of the rest of Wake's steals are the work of the forwards.  This could present an opportunity for Paul Jesperson to use his height and shoot over the defense, as he might well find himself with some room, what with that 6'6" frame of his.

There's otherwise very little that's remarkable about Wake's numbers on defense, either good or bad.  That's an improvement over their situation last year, although they haven't yet run the ACC gauntlet other than an uncompetitive loss to Duke, which tells us nothing.  For the Hoos it will be mainly a question of taking advantage of opportunities.

-- UVA on defense

As with last year, Wake is a two-man show....mostly.  Travis McKie is good, and C.J. Harris is outstanding.  Harris is shooting .619 from two and .417 from three, which I don't need to tell you is halfway decent.  It's McKie that takes the most shots, though, when really it should be the other way round.  It would've been like if Sean Singletary had deferred to someone else.  Not that McKie is lousy, but he's been way off on his three-pointers this year after shooting respectably last year, and, like, .619.  C'mon.

Frankly, the usage rate for both of these guys is too low.  Jeff Bzdelik opened the Duke game by running a play for Devin Thomas.  Thomas is nice on defense and all, but his O-rating is a pathetic 82.6, and the dude is a turnover factory.  Of course, on that play, Thomas "bobbled the ball before missing a layup" which is because he tried to drive on Mason Plumlee.  That had better pay dividends for Wake when Bzdelik's freshmen are juniors, because this is why you're losing games, man.  Thomas and fellow freshman forwards Tyler Cavanaugh and Arnaud Adala Moto have O-ratings 92.5 or worse - trust me, that's a span from bad to lousy - and all have higher usage rates than C.J. Harris.  That's inconceivably stupid and why Wake fans should be screaming for Bzdelik's head.

The offense is run by a pair of freshman point guards.  Madison Jones (the backup) shoots well from the field but pathetically from the free-throw line and turns the ball over a ton.  Starter Codi Miller-McIntyre has done a nice job.  Miller-McIntyre's A/T ratio of 1.4/1 is pretty good for a freshman passing to forwards who can't shoot.  He's also a good shooter - dangerous from three - but probably defers to teammates more than he should.

Last year, UVA throttled Wake partly thanks to limiting Harris to 6 points from the field.  The pack-line did a nice job of keeping Harris out of the paint and turning him into a jump shooter, mostly.  The pack-line is a good match for Bzdelik's Princetonish offense because the offense likes to catch the defense napping with back-door cuts from outside the arc and Tony Bennett will let you hang out beyond the arc without the ball all you like, and not open himself up to backdoor cuts.  (A true Princeton, with the whole offense hanging out above the free-throw line, would be a very interesting sight to see when run against a good, stubborn pack-line defense where the defenders ardently refuse to wander outside the pack line.  But I digress.)  Combine UVA's tough, miserly defense with the inane self-limitations that Wake puts on Harris and there's a good chance he won't be a factor yet again.  Nobody in Wake's frontcourt, not even McKie, is all that scary, and Atkins and Mitchell (if the latter plays) should have a field day shutting them down.

-- Outlook

Having said all that, this is Virginia, where nothing easy is ever easy.  If we were a regular-good ACC team, I'd chalk up a win already.  But it's on the road and we have all sorts of underclassmen running the show, and banged-up upperclassmen.  Should we win?  Yes, and rather easily.  I'm going to make my prediction with only a little bit of these bad-gods intangibles factored in, but you're required to take this with the ever-present Extreme Youth grain of salt.

Final score: UVA 64, Wake 50

Thursday, December 27, 2012

season preview: Wake Forest

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Media prediction: 11th of 12

Last season:

Record: 13-18 (4-12); ACC 9 seed
Postseason: none
KenPom: 210th of 345

Returning scoring: 60.7%
Returning rebounding: 47.1%
Returning assists: 43.8%

2011-2012 all-ACC:

1st team: none
2nd team: none
3rd team: G C.J. Harris
HM: F Travis McKie
Defensive: none
Rookie: none

(Italics indicate departed player.)

Starting lineup:

PG: Codi Miller-McIntyre (Fr.)
SG: C.J. Harris (Sr.)
SF: Travis McKie (Jr.)
PF: Tyler Cavanaugh (Fr.)
PF: Devin Thomas (Fr.)

Bench:

G Chase Fischer (So.)
G Madison Jones (Fr.)
F Arnaud Adala Moto (Fr.)
F Aaron Rountree (Fr.)

Coach: Jeff Bzdelik (3rd season)

ACC schedule:

Twice: Boston College, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, NC State, Virginia Tech
Once: Clemson, North Carolina, Miami, Virginia

It's a sad commentary on how bad Wake Forest's supporting cast was last year that C.J. Harris and Travis McKie both got all-ACC consideration (Harris on the 3rd team and McKie getting votes) and Wake was still five games under .500 and 4-12 in the conference.  I mean they had some lousy-assed basketball players, to the point where some of the attrition and graduation they suffered this offseason was addition by subtraction.  Example: Nikita Mescheriakov, an absolute butcher underneath the basket who could not rebound.

What happens when you lose a lot of players like that?  The invasion of the freshmen, that's what.  Harris has never been anything but an outstanding shooter, and McKie is a solid scorer as well plus a near-elite rebounder.  The other extraordinary thing about both: they're the only upperclassmen who play.  There are so many freshmen in the rotation that Wake can go all Fab Five if it wants and still leave one on the bench (not even including the walk-ons.)

The best of that large class is probably point guard Codi Miller-McIntyre.  He hardly ever gets to the free-throw line but otherwise does a nice job balancing scoring with distributing, and has done a passable job running the offense so far.  Coming off the bench in the guard rotation, Wake employs sophomore Chase Fischer, who can pop a three but isn't terribly comfortable inside the arc, and freshman Madison Jones, who is the opposite of that.

Down low, Wake starts two freshman forwards, Devin Thomas and Tyler Cavanaugh.  Thomas is the superior rebounder and defender - he's a good shot-blocker but so far hasn't displayed any offensive chops whatsoever.  Cavanaugh isn't great offensively either, but he's better than Thomas, and earns (and converts) a lot of free throws, which keep his O-rating afloat.  Harris, McKie, and Cavanaugh are all three good at getting to the stripe, which has put Wake in the top ten in the country in free-throw rate.

Two more freshmen come off the bench in the frontcourt, but their roles are more limited than the bench guards.  Arnaud Adala Moto is a decent scorer and rebounder, but has the free-throw skills of a moose; a major liability in a bench player since opposing coaches will have no problem instructing their own bench players to hack away.  You've heard of bench three-point specialists; Aaron Rountree is a bench shot-blocking specialist.  He's ninth on the team in minutes and first on the team in blocked shots, with 15; an average of 4.8 blocks per 40 minutes.

Right now, this just isn't a good team overall.   Teams they've been blown out by include Nebraska and Iona, the latter being a total embarrassment of a game that saw the Deacons fall behind 32-5 to start the game and lose by 26.  But they've also given teams much better than them, including UConn, a real scare.  Are they going to any tournament of any kind, save the automatic ACC one?  No.  But I do think they'll improve somewhat as the year goes on, and be good for a couple surprises in the ACC season.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

the virginia lions

You know how the saying goes.  Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.  Fool me like four or five times in a row into thinking improvement is just around the corner, and I am a Lions fan.  If you've ever wondered what it's like to be a fan of the Honolulu blue and silver, this is pretty much how it goes.  You just have to let the wishful side of you do all the thinking.  Just invent reasons why your football team isn't as bad as everyone thinks it is and then show up on the weekend, or the beginning of the season, with an optimistic smile on your face all set for its violent removal by another wasted day of watching them bumblefuck their way around the field.

At some point you'll show up on Sundays (Saturdays, whatever) with the understanding that instead of expecting anything fruitful, you'll just have yourself a nice cathartic couple of hours complaining about everything.  It's a new kind of fun, albeit somewhat more acceptable when the players are professionals.

No matter.  The only thing I'm disappointed in myself about is not realizing it sooner.  It's not like I haven't had like twenty years of practice - the signs should've been much more obvious.  Undisciplined shit doesn't just fix itself next week, especially when the coaches don't care about it.  The quarterback doesn't suddenly know the offense that he couldn't figure out last week.  During the game I tweeted that a great test of accountability would be whether or not Kyle McCartin played at all after picking up an extremely costly personal foul on our first kickoff.  Guess who played the very next kickoff?  Mike London claimed he should have been benched and it was his (London's) fault that McCartin went out there.  It's too late for that.

This isn't about Kyle McCartin, although that's not to exempt a senior from blame for taking a freshman penalty.  I don't care if it was an oversight on London's part and he meant to bench McCartin.  He didn't.  Meaning he had other things on his mind than fixing the team's most glaring and costly issue.  And apparently so did the guy to whom London has delegated special teams responsibility.  This is why I said we can't afford another week of Anthony Poindexter on special teams duty.  His unit just directly cost his team three points and he didn't give enough of a fuck to hold accountable the guy responsible.  It shouldn't have to be London's call to sit someone down.  Ultimately I think that is London shielding Dex from blame, which is at least more admirable than wringing your assistant out to dry.

So I see no reason why we should ever expect anything but more of the same.  You just got visual confirmation that it's all talk, all bluster and no action.  Week after week it's the same mistakes.  No lane responsibility.  No discipline.  The list of special teams disasters includes at least two penalties, two muffed punts, one 60-yard punt return given up, and one instance of taking the ball out of the end zone again only to trip over the 10-yard line.  The casualty: yet another check mark in the loss column, directly attributable to special teams.  And every week Poindexter is coaching the unit will be another week in which the best you can hope for out of the special teams will be that the margin of loss is so big that their undisciplined bullshit didn't matter.

Further reactions in brief:

-- It feels really good to see my faith in Chris Brathwaite paying off.  Nine tackles, two for loss, is a phenomenal game out of a defensive tackle.  Just a monster game.

-- Actually the defense in general is exempt from the rage machine this week.  Four PBUs for Drequan Hoskey, and 10 for the defense overall, plus Brathwaite's day, and 14 tackles out of Steve Greer; I don't have anything bad to say about the defense.  Obvious caveats about the level of competition apply, but the D played well.  It's a safe bet Wake would never have seen the end zone if they hadn't been set up on our own 16 yard line by you-know-what.

-- Does anyone still believe in the stupidity that is the godawful mistaken belief that whether or not Phillip Sims actually completes his downfield bombs, just the fact that he chucks them will loosen up defenses enough for us to run on them?  For one thing, Wake clearly had no respect for the passing game because they were shooting linebackers and safeties through the gaps all day long and stuffing the run game.  For another, Sims's play-fakes suck, so it's not like there's any good reason to respect the pass regardless.  It is bad for the offense when the quarterback arm-punts.  I feel like I should not have to say that, but then I feel like there are people who still need it said to them.

-- Something that doesn't usually make a blip on any radars but something that I liked: Jeremiah Mathis catches a pass from Sims about 12, 13 yards downfield, and immediately lunges forward.  Almost as immediately he's tackled, but the result of the play is 16 yards.  Watching receivers juke and shuffle immediately after a catch to try and get past a tackler is infuriating because it works maybe once in twenty times.  I watched Perry Jones (maybe it was Parks but I think it was Jones) catch a ball over the middle and immediately stop, with the idea that he was going to juke his defender out of his shorts.  Naturally he got tackled from behind.  Duh, there are other defenders back there and they're chasing you.  Run away from them, which is forward for more yardage.

-- Yes, we got horse-screwed on that fourth-down spot.

-- How do you know your year is going badly?  When the loudest cheer of the second half is for not carrying the ball out of the end zone.  That ought to sting the coaches a little.  On second thought, I bet the first time NC State kicks the ball over the goal line, our returner brings it out.  Things are not being taught.

On to the predictions:

-- Five yards a carry for Kevin Parks.  Uh, or half that.  Either way.

-- Parks both catches the most passes, and has the most carries, of any UVA back.  I should've stuck with most carries, as he had 10 to Jones's 7, but Jones caught five passes.

-- Tim Smith, in his welcome-back party, does not catch many passes (three at most) but one is a big one.  I'm giving myself this one even though he caught four, which is one more than three.  A 56-yarder on one of Sims's best throws of the day certainly counts.  (I continue to beat the drum that there's no such thing as a big YAC play without a very nice throw, and Sims hit him perfectly.)

-- Tanner Price completes fewer than 50% of his passes.  Price (or his receivers) was as bad as I expected, going 7-for-19.  How do you lose when your opposing quarterback goes 7-for-19?  Oh, right.

-- Brandon Terry, not Terence Davis, is Wake's leading receiver.  Terry caught just one pass, but it was for 41 yards and nobody else on Wake, except for one player (Lovell Jackson) caught more than one.  Do I give myself this one?  Yes - the point was that Davis was not a threat to the Hoos, but Terry was, and his big 41-yard catch was the one right after McCartin's PF penalty that set up Wake's first field goal.  People were way down on our safeties for that, but Terry is six-foot-bloody-five, and that play was unlikely to be stopped.

3-for-5 is not bad; it puts me at 16-for-39 for the season, which is 41%.  But my now-dead optimism stupidity has me at 4-4 on the game prediction season and 0-6-2 ATS.  I promise you I will never again pick the Hoos to win another game this season.  You can hold me to that.  They haven't played so as to deserve it.

Note: I've decided to shake things up a tad; for the rest of the season, except for the bye next week, I'll have my game reactions up on Sunday, and then Monday will be more of an everything-else day, including Blogpoll ballots and Senior Seasons.  It used to be more that way anyway, and kind of evolved out of it, and I think it works better this way.

Friday, October 19, 2012

game preview: Wake Forest


Date/Time: Saturday, October 20; 12:30

TV: ACC Net., ESPN3

Record against the Deacons: 34-13

Last meeting: Wake 28, UVA 17; 11/8/08**, Winston-Salem

(**I never miss an opportunity to remind you that this is stupid and the fact that the ACC is doing nothing but exacerbating the situation is stupider.  My last football season as a student was 2003.  If you had told me that I would graduate, and then UVA would play Wake Forest twice between then and 2012, which is exactly what has happened, my jaw would've hit the floor.  Are we in the same conference or what?)

Last weekend: Md. 27, UVA 20; Wake Forest bye

Line: UVA by 3.5

Opposing blog: Blogger So Dear

Injury report:

Virginia -

OUT FOR SEASON
S Pablo Alvarez, DT Marco Jones, WR Mario Nixon

OUT
DE Billy Schautz

DOUBTFUL
None

QUESTIONABLE
OT Morgan Moses

PROBABLE
DT Justin Renfrow, WR Tim Smith

Wake Forest -

(pending)

Such is my appreciation for you readers that I just spent the afternoon watching the Tigers sweep the Yankees and win their 11th American League pennant, and I have put off getting shitty drunk and dancing naked in the streets just so I could write you this post semi-on-time.  (This is not to say that this is a sober post, mind you.  A number of posts over the years have been brought to you by the juice of the barley or some other fine liquid intoxicant.  This is one of them.)  Anyway, the Hoos host Wake Forest in the final game before a badly-needed bye week.  Silly me, I thought I could spend this bye week examining bowl possibilities.

-- UVA run offense vs. Wake run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 93 carries, 475 yards, 5.1 avg., 3 TDs
Perry Jones: 86 carries, 318 yards, 3.7 avg., 2 TDs

UVA offense:
139.57 yards/game, 4.04 yards/attempt
82nd of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)

Wake defense:
206.33 yards/game, 4.49 yards/attempt
84th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)

I'm no coach, but it sure looks like Kevin Parks is taking over - if he hasn't taken over - the primary tailback role here.  The way things have gone at tailback this season, that's a good thing; Perry Jones has been weirdly inconsistent and indecisive, not at all what you'd expect after seeing him play last year.  Parks, on the other hand, has seized the opportunity.  He's been looking like the guy who changed the North Carolina high school record book to one page that just says KEVIN PARKS.  To top it off, lately he even looks like a better pass-catcher than Perry has.

Wake suspended a host of players for the Maryland game two weeks ago, but it looks like they'll be back, with the exception of a couple more dunderheads who were suspended this week.  By and large it won't affect anything, however.  Wake isn't really good at defending the run regardless.  They play a 3-4, but instead of asking their nose tackle (Nikita Whitlock) to gum up a bunch of space, they want him to use his excellent quickness to get into the backfield and force running backs outside, where the linebackers will theoretically go find them.  The problem this year is that Whitlock has been slowed by a bum ankle.  Normally his job is to line up right over the center and make the center guess which way he's going, but with that ankle, even if the center guesses wrong he can still recover and get a block on Whitlock.  This has turned Wake's run defense problematic.

It even offers a slight glimmer of hope that UVA's biggest issue can be fixed: that of suddenly turning incompetent inside the 20 and being utterly unable to gain one yard when one yard is needed.  Maybe, just maybe, if Whitlock's ankle is causing him problems, he can be blown off the ball, along with the rest of Wakes line - they use a very undersized group, especially for the 3-4.

Expect UVA to be able to at least move the ball.  That hasn't been the problem; you're well aware of how we've infamously outgained basically everyone we've played and still gotten our asses beat.  Another five yards a carry from Parks is a strong likelihood; the only I-A team that hasn't gashed Wake is Maryland, and Maryland is bringing a loaf of bread to a gunfight in this respect.  The real question is whether or not we'll once again be a living embodiment of Zeno's paradox, and get halfway to the end zone on every play.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Wake pass defense

Quarterback:
Phillip Sims: 62/116, 53.4%; 747 yards, 6 TDs, 3 INTs; 6.44 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 26 rec., 370 yards, 1 TD
Perry Jones: 23 rec., 228 yards, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
283.6 yards/game, 7.1 yards/attempt
76th of 124 (national), 11th of 12 (ACC)

Wake defense:
216.0 yards/game, 7.2 yards/attempt
77th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)

Ayyy.  If we're not already at the territory where if you have two quarterbacks you have none, we're moving rapidly toward it.  It was probably a gracious and merciful God that caused Khalek Shepherd to be just slightly late in looking for that first-down pass from Mike Rocco last week, because if he'd caught it he'd probably have scored.  And if he'd scored we might have won, and if Rocco had coolly and calmly driven UVA to a win after Phillip Sims spent most of the day floundering, the resulting quarterback controversy would have melted everyone's head.

This is the one area where a suspension might affect things; starting safety Duran Lowe is out.  However, he's replaced by Kenny Okoro, who's well-experienced in his own right, although he's managed to watch his playing time steadily decrease since his freshman year.

It looks as though Tim Smith will finally get back on the field.  Will it much matter?  I kind of doubt it, as I expect Smith to be eased back into it.  Unlike last week, Darius Jennings doesn't appear on the injury list, and should be at full speed, and E.J. Scott has of course been impressive.  So I don't think there'll be a big rush to toss Smith right back into the fire, but I do expect him to be targeted a little bit early just to get him back into the groove.

However, Sims must have a good day against a highly unremarkable pass defense.  Wake can be carved up by dinking down the field, which of course is Rocco's specialty and which Duke did almost perfectly to the Deacs.  Sims is less consistently accurate and doesn't have the timing down right.  He's proven a fast learner in certain areas - after obvious missed opportunities against Duke, he scrambled for a few yards against Maryland and at least one first down.  As Sims goes this weekend, so goes the offense.

-- Wake run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Josh Harris: 88 carries, 377 yards, 4.3 avg, 3 TDs
Deandre Martin: 57 carries, 279 yards, 4.9 avg., 5 TDs

Wake offense:
123.17 yards/game, 3.54 yards/attempt
99th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
154.43 yards/game, 4.36 yards/attempt
74th of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)

Last week's game finally freed me, for the most part, from having to always caveat the Georgia Tech game in an effort to point out why the run defense doesn't actually suck.  The stats are now a lot more normal-looking and better reflective of the actual effort being put forth here.

Wake's Josh Harris continues to be a boom-or-bust kind of back, though he's done a better job of smoothing out his production spikes this season and being more consistent.  The Deacs have also found a solid change of pace in redshirt freshman Deandre Martin, a big bruiser who's been used as a short-yardage back but is very capable of a workhorse role and is very hard to bring down in the open field.

Wake's offensive line is slowly coming together.  In the preseason I called it one of the biggest disaster units in the whole conference.  It's better than that, but it's still working toward respectability.  In later games it's been improving after having been completely throttled by Florida State (no surprise there.)

However, I think you have to at least nod your head appreciatively at the work done by the UVA defensive line.  It has missed Billy Schautz, but it's learned to cope without him, and Ausar Walcott and Eli Harold have been improving each game in his absence.  Wake will absolutely need a running game, as we'll see in the next segment, so this could well be the deciding factor.  If their backs can generate some life, and they've been able to do so in Wake's most recent games, they'll have an offense.  If our front seven can get another inspired game from guys like Laroy Reynolds (who played very well against Maryland despite the nonsense with the PF penalty) and the front four can continue to do some quality unsung work, Wake will struggle mightily.

-- Wake pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Tanner Price: 98/188, 52.1%; 1225 yards, 7 TDs, 4 INTs; 6.52 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Michael Campanaro: 38 rec., 429 yards, 3 TDs
Terence Davis: 18 rec., 280 yards, 1 TD

Wake offense:
210.2 yards/game, 6.6 yards/attempt
91st of 124 (national), 12 of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
223.0 yards/game, 6.9 yards/attempt
58th of 124 (national), 5th of 12 (ACC)

The first thing, and probably second through seventh things, that you need to know is this: no Campanaro.  Wake's leading (and only good) receiver has a broken hand and won't be playing.

That alters things immensely.  Campanaro had potential to be a nightmare.  Our safeties generally don't do well when assigned to do tricky things like help out the cornerbacks on one particular receiver.  (I'm not being sarcastic.  They're inexperienced, and get confused easily when their assignment is deep help on a Stefon Diggs type but the route patterns make it look like they should be doing something else.  That's why Diggs was so damn wide open that one time Hills threw him a wobbly can of corn to escape big-time trouble.  Our safety was playing it safe and hanging back, which given the circumstances I prefer that to the alternative.  Anyway, the point is that "keep an eye on this side of the field and defend the deepest route" is a simple assignment; "keep an eye on this side of the field, help out your corner on this really dangerous receiver but also don't let anything go behind you" is trickier than it sounds.)

Without Campanaro, there is nobody at all that will strike fear in anyone.  Starting TE Spencer Bishop has caught two passes all year.  They don't use him.  Campanaro has almost as many rushing attempts as their running backs have pass catches.  They don't use them much.  Tanner Price's completion percentage is so low partly because his receivers have a bad case of the dropsies.  Demetrious Nicholson is still a work in progress, but you can damn sure bet he's good enough to cover Terence Davis.  He and Brandon Terry comprise the biggest threats; Terry could sometimes be a problem because he's 6'5" and we got short DBs, but ultimately there's no need to overanalyze this: no Campanaro, no problem.

-- Outlook

I did promise on Monday that I would predict a loss regardless of what I wrote in the game preview.  Call me stupid, or a homer, or a Lions fan (nobody is better than a Lions fan at rationalizing why our crappy football team will be good) but I can't do that.  If the game is close, it could be a problem given the shattered wasteland that is our special teams.  And Wake is coming off a bye week, probably with a whole bunch of tricks up their sleeve.  But I'm going to hang my hat on the hopes that our run defense is as good as I think it is; that the Wake passing offense is as bad as it looks without their one legitimate receiving star; and that we'll finally be able to run the ball on every yard line between the goal lines, and not just from 20 to 20.  If we lose this one I swear every game prediction from here on out will be for a loss of a billion to three.

Also, I'm always forgetting to mention this, but I'll be using the Tweeta during the game to spit out random stuff.  Follow @MaizeNBlueWahoo for 140-character reactions to the game.

-- Prediction summary:

-- Five yards a carry for Kevin Parks.
-- Parks both catches the most passes, and has the most carries, of any UVA back.  (Made easier, of course, if Perry Jones's concussion turns out to be a problem, but he wasn't on the injury report.)
-- Tim Smith, in his welcome-back party, does not catch many passes (three at most) but one is a big one.
-- Tanner Price completes fewer than 50% of his passes.
-- Brandon Terry, not Terence Davis, is Wake's leading receiver.

Final score: UVA 21, Wake 14

-- Rest of the ACC:

Virginia Tech @ Clemson, 12:00 - Somebody's division hopes are going to take a major hit.

Boston College @ Georgia Tech, 3:00 - The natives are restless in Atlanta; they'll go ballistic if they lose this one.

NC State @ Maryland, 3:30 - You'd've been slapped in the face if you suggested before the season that Maryland would lead their division and control their destiny in October.

North Carolina @ Duke, 7:00 - UNC has lost this game once since 1989, which is the last time it meant anything.  Now it's for Duke's bowl eligibility - yikes.

Florida State @ Miami, 8:00 - Wouldn't be surprised to see this one overrun with Noles fans.

Sunday, August 26, 2012

season preview: Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Schedule:

9/1: Liberty
9/8: North Carolina
9/15: @ Florida State
9/22: Army
9/29: Duke
10/6: @ Maryland
10/13: @ Virginia
10/20: BYE
10/25: Clemson (Thu.)
11/3: Boston College
11/10: @ NC State
11/17: @ Notre Dame
11/24: Vanderbilt

Skip: Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia Tech

Projected starters:

QB: Tanner Price (Jr.)
RB: Josh Harris (rJr.)
FB: Tommy Bohanan (Sr.)
WR: Michael Campanaro (rJr.)
WR: Terence Davis (5Sr.)
TE: Spencer Bishop (rJr.)
LT: Ramon Booi (5Sr.)
LG: Antonio Ford (rSo.)
C: Garrick Williams (5Sr.)
RG: Frank Souza (rJr.)
RT: Colin Summers (rSo.)

DE: Zach Thompson (rJr.)
NT: Nikita Whitlock (rJr.)
DE: Kris Redding (rJr.)
OLB: Joey Ehrmann (5Sr.)
ILB: Scott Betros (5Sr.)
ILB: Riley Haynes (5Sr.)
OLB: Zachary Allen (rSo.)
CB: Merrill Noel (rSo.)
CB: Kenny Okoro (5Sr.)
SS: Duran Lowe (rJr.)
FS: Daniel Mack (rJr.)

K: Jimmy Newman (Sr.)
P: Alexander Kinal (rFr.)

(Italics indicate new starter.)

Coach: Jim Grobe (12th season)

Media prediction: 4th place, Atlantic Division

All-ACC:

2011 1st team: WR Chris Givens, S Josh Bush
2011 2nd team: G Joe Looney, DT Nikita Whitlock
2011 HM: CB Merrill Noel
2012 preseason: DT Nikita Whitlock

(Italics indicate departed player.)

Last year, the Deacons surpassed a lot of expectations by getting to a bowl game after a two-year postseason absence.  They lost it, though, cementing their third straight losing season.  Jim Grobe is the program's best coach since the 1940's, but he's got precious little margin for error this season if he wants to avoid the longest losing-season streak in his tenure at Wake Forest.

OFFENSE

Quarterback Tanner Price was a big part of the reason for Wake's better-than-expected season last year.  Price made a big development leap from his freshman year, and in 2011 was unspectacular but ruthlessly efficient.  In 422 pass attempts he was intercepted just six times, against 20 touchdown throws and a 60% completion rate.

Price lost his favorite target to the NFL, though.  Michael Campanaro will be the new #1 receiver for the Deacons, and he's an excellent player and more than capable of the job.  But he'll need some help the way he himself opened the door for Chris Givens last year.  The only other remotely experienced receive on the roster is senior Terence Davis, who only caught 20 passes last year - but five for touchdowns.  Wake also has zero tight ends who've ever caught a pass in a game.

The running backs are a big question mark with big potential.  Josh Harris has a penchant for busting off really, really big games, such as his 250-yarder against VT two years ago, or a 136-yard effort against Florida State last year.  In between, though, he goes MIA and fails to be a factor.  Harris is the top back this year, and Wake must get consistency out of him and more of those big games if they're going to pull off any upsets.  Orville Reynolds has a chance to be a nice change-of-pace back, and he'll get plenty of carries to ensure the Deacons aren't relying too heavily on Harris.

But then we get to the offensive line - the biggest headache by far for Grobe and his staff.  Garrick Williams provides the only measure of stability and predictability on this line, starting at center for the second year.  Beyond that - well, the starter predictions above are the biggest crapshoot of the year.  Wake has seen successive possible starters either leave the team or blow out an ACL as the offseason and fall camp have progressed, and the result is a wildly unpredictable mess.  Some of these guys (Ramon Booi, Frank Souza) are converted D-linemen, others are massively inexperienced.  Colin Summers is the only one with experience in the regular rotation, and that was at right guard.  Where he'll actually play is still a bit of a mystery.  Bottom line: I stand by none of those predictions, and will accept no blame if Wake ends the year with five players not even listed there.  This line is a mess.

Even with the consistency and talent that Price brings under center, this offense has too many question marks.  The offensive line will probably shuffle and shuffle again over the course of the season, and Wake fans are anxiously hoping Harris can finally break out of his shell and be the back they want him to be, rather than the one he is most of the time.  The possibilities for this group range from respectable to frighteningly bad.

DEFENSE

Nikita Whitlock is an enigma: a 3-4 nose guard who weighs 260 pounds and yet is good enough to earn preseason all-ACC honors.  He's a disruptive player who led the team in TFL and sacks last year.  He's a bright spot on the line.  The rest of the line, though, is also woefully undersized, not as talented as Whitlock, and therefore woefully underproductive.  Zach Thompson played a full season as a DE starter last year and only earned half a sack.  Al Groh would look at this way undersized 3-4 line and go "UR DOIN IT WRONG" and he'd have a point: Wake has not been good at run defense since switching to the 3-4, and gets no pressure on opposing quarterbacks with only 11 sacks last year.

At ILB, Wake actually uses a three-man rotation and splits the snaps fairly evenly.  Scott Betros and Riley Haynes are nominally the starters, and both are fifth-year seniors with a load of experience.  Justin Jackson is the other member of the unit, and he's equally productive as the other two.  The stats of all three take a slight hit from the nature of the rotation, but all three are steady, solid players, though none will stand out either.  On the outside, Joey Ehrmann is just as steady as the inside backers, although you'd like to see some flashier stats from your OLBs in a 3-4.  Zach Allen played pretty well as a backup OLB in 2011 and is ready for the starting job.  Overall, you've got a Wake Forest linebacking unit that perfectly mirrors the image of the team: they get the job done, but they don't make headlines.

Sophomore cornerback Merrill Noel was the ACC DROY last season, and had a total of 21 passes defensed, so there are high hopes for his play this year.  Kenny Okoro won honors as a freshman, too, but since has struggled with his consistency.  Now a senior, Wake's expectations are that he and Noel will form one of the better cornerback tandems in the league.  At safety, though, the Deacs will be hard-pressed to replicate the success they had last year - the two departed starters were the team's tackle leader and INT leader.  Both Daniel Mack and Duran Lowe earned a fair amount of playing time last season, though, and so should at least be ready for the new responsibility.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Jimmy Newman should be a good, reliable option for the Deacons this season, as long as he overcomes the shanks he picked up at the tail end of last season.  Expect Alexander Kinal to take over punting duties sooner or later, as his leg is much stronger than that of previous starter Alex Wulfeck.

OUTLOOK

Ultimately, I guess I won't be surprised if Jim Grobe once again squeezes water from a rock and gets this team into a bowl game.  But I'll be less surprised if he can't.  The defense is adequate, but probably not good enough to stop a really good, focused offense.  The question is whether the scary-looking offensive line will ever open up any room for the offense to work.  Opposing defensive lines will be licking their chops at the chance to wreak some havoc.  And beyond that there's no guarantee that the running backs will strike fear into anyone, or that Tanner Price will have enough weapons at his disposal to be effective.  Wake will have to pull off at least one upset, and avoid being upset by anyone else, in order to get to the postseason again.