the devil take it

I'd been preaching the past few weeks that it wasn't real likely that everything was gonna go right in the second half of the season, but I gotta admit I wasn't too sure what that would look like.  No, I wasn't very excited to find out, thank you.  In a nutshell, the answer is:

-- A really bad offensive game plan, badly executed
-- An opposing offensive game plan perfectly suited to nullify the strength of our defense

The latter is actually a little bit encouraging.  The pass rush was taken entirely out of the equation, Anthony Boone wasn't touched, and the defense still only allowed 20 points.  (Though aided somewhat by Boone's inaccuracy.)  There are definitely worse offenses left on the schedule, one of which was on display Thursday night.

Our own offense was a massive disappointment, though.  Yes, dropped passes hurt, and yes, Matt Johns missed some very open receivers deep.  That's not the worst part, though.  The worst part is that Duke's defense has been very, very amenable to jamming the ball down their throat, as evidenced by the fact that some of the shittiest teams in all of D-I football have done just that, and UVA elected to pass more than 60% of the time.

Let's put this in perspective: Duke has a very poor run defense and a very good pass defense.  You have a senior running back and a sophomore quarterback.**  You are presented with a wall of paper and a wall of brick, and you can either use a flamethrower on the paper or a rubber mallet on the brick.  You chose the mallet.

So yes, Matt Johns was mostly off-target with sporadic displays of brilliance, but nobody blames the foot soldiers for the failure of Pickett's Charge.  The coaches had an obvious chance to set their players up for success, and instead got outcoached on two weeks of preparation by a staff with one week of preparation.  It's not hard to see why there's still plenty of angst about the future of the program.

It's a sobering reminder of where our ambitions should be.  A division title would be cool, and jeez, even reachable, but we're probably gonna have to dial that back a bit.  I don't like it one bit, but an offense that spins its wheels as much as this one hasn't earned much confidence in the future.  13 points against that defense is just - ugh, I'm forced to deploy the word of choice for drunken Saturday-night quarterbacks everywhere - unacceptable.

**And your senior running back routinely turns in awesome performances in the state of North Carolina, because he's pissed off that none of the teams there recruited him.  GIVE HIM THE BALL!

Bullets:

-- Short-side east-west plays (the bane of my existence) and poor run-pass balance aren't the only coaching bugaboos to make a triumphant return.  Crappy timeout usage was also costly.  Not as costly as other stuff, but still.

-- I really do not like the orange helmets with gray facemasks.  Really ugly when not part of a throwback.  It's amazing how the wrong helmet turns one of the classiest looks we've ever had into one of the worst.

-- I don't want to do the research on this myself, because it'd take forever, but I wonder when the last time was that a college quarterback completed less than half his passes for over 300 yards.  Johns was nine yards shy of the sophomore record (Matt Schaub, 334) and would've threatened (if not completely blown past) the single-game record of 393 (Schaub, again) with a little more accuracy on some of those deep balls.  Or fewer dropped passes.

-- Another thing I hate: Receiving the opening kickoff.  You basically have to score right there, on that drive, or else you've blown the whole advantage of it.  Anything else - anything at all - and the other team, especially in their own stadium, gets to start the game on a momentum high.  Another reason, by the way, that all that passing was stupid.  Nothing would've been as perfect as taking the opening kick and spending the next seven minutes grinding out as many rushing yards as your heart desired.  Send the message that we're gonna do this all day so you might as well lose hope now.

 Prediction review:

-- Kevin Parks runs for over 100 yards. Well, maybe if he'd been given any carries.

-- Greyson Lambert (or our starting quarterback) attempts fewer than 20 passes.  I really need to stop making predictions based on what I would do.

-- UVA loses the turnover battle.  This did happen, although the general point was to build a narrative where UVA was good enough to overcome doing so.

-- Duke's run game is more than a yard worse than their average.  No, and Duke was surprisingly and annoyingly effective on the ground.

-- Quin Blanding has 10 or more tackles.  Blanding had nine; it was Anthony Harris who had the big day in the secondary with 14

-- UVA wins time of possession by six or more minutes.  The Hoos did win this battle, but not by that much.

New prediction stats:

14-for-35 on specifics (40%)
4-2 straight up
2-2-1 ATS

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Two things happened over the weekend worth discussing.  Well, Thursday and then Monday.

The Monday thing is Tony Bennett building up his 2016 class with the addition of Indiana guard Kyle Guy.  As with Ty Jerome, the first member of the class, I'm gonna wait til these guys finish their junior years before even bothering with trying a profile.  But know this: The Indiana schools normally have the state of Indiana on lockdown, and if not them, the state's high-profile recruits still choose a school close by.  In 2012, for example, the state produced eight four-star prospects (by Rivals' reckoning.)  Three went to IU, two to Purdue, and one each to Butler, Michigan, and MSU.

In fact, going back to the 2009 class, there've been about 30 four-star or above prospects (Rivals, again) to come out of the state of Indiana - exactly one of them went to a school somewhere other than the state of Indiana or one of its direct neighbors.  Guy is the second.

The 2016 class is shaping up to be perhaps Tony's most heralded class of his UVA tenure; it now needs some lengthy wing types, as the only three on the 2016-2017 depth chart is Marial Shayok.  Highly fluid is the world of basketball recruiting, which is why I don't cover it til after the commitments happen; that said, if you don't know the name Mamadi Diakite yet, learn it.

The Thursday thing was the VT game against Pitt, which I watched from start to finish, the first time I'd done so all year.  I came away with a few opinions, naturally:

-- VT gets horrible safety play.  Before the game I'd noticed, during my stat-digging, that they've been prone to giving up long pass plays, a surefire indicator that safeties aren't in the right place at the right time.  Kyshoen Jarrett's awful angle on a long Tyler Boyd touchdown, as pointed out by the announcers, drove that point home.  Their corners are more or less as advertised (which is to say, very good), but the safeties - woof.

-- Michael Brewer is a good quarterback about 25% of the time.

-- VT's offensive line is fun to watch, if you like defensive line play.  Pitt's Nicholas Grigsby is not an elite defender by anyone's measurement, but on one play he blew untouched past VT's right tackle, McLaughlin.  Eli Harold and Max Valles should have an enjoyable day on Thanksgiving weekend.

-- You would expect that at least VT's run defense would be up to snuff, but James Conner and Chad Voytik ran wild all evening.

-- Did the Hokies do anything right?  Not a lot, when you're looking at no first downs in the first quarter-and-a-half.  But besides their excellent cornerbacks, Isaiah Ford and Cam Phillips make for a very impressive pair of freshman receivers.  DT Corey Marshall did a nice job on one play of dropping back into coverage and it resulted in a pickoff, a dangerous thing for our short-tossing pass offense.  (Though, most short passes go toward the sideline rather than dunkoffs over the middle.)

I'm really rooting for Miami in Lane Stadium next week - I mean, besides the whole thing about let's not root for Tech to win anything, VT is in the middle of their special scheduling handjob the ACC gives them literally every year.  (Except last year, which caused them no end of distress about having to do something most teams routinely do.)  Seeing them go 0-for-2 on Thursdays, well, it'd be no less than they deserve for the special treatment they get.  Their next three opponents - Miami, BC, Duke - all have very strong running games, and if they don't get their run defense act together at least once, UVA will have the chance to deliver the death blow to their bowl eligibility hopes.

was that cool or what?

"There’s a lot to like about what Tony Bennett has done in his brief time at Virginia, and given his record, a lot more to expect in the future. But while the suit-and-open-collar look is perfect for boarding an NBA charter, perhaps he might find a tie appropriate once in a while -- maybe for a national TV game against the defending national champions?"

- Luke DeCock, Charlotte Observer writer

The Dean Dome isn't a five-star restaurant, but despite the silly ignorance of the above local hack (nothing like a flip statement to prove you haven't scouted your opponent at all) the man has stumbled on a very apropos metaphor anyway. Bennett and co. made like Rodney Dangerfield's Al Czervik at the fancy Bushwood affair and totally failed to respect the hallowed tradition of the mighty Dean Smith Center and its resident powerhouse. The Hoos came in, mocked the judge, danced with his wife, insulted the cook, disrupted the music, and had the time of their lives doing it. By the time the clock made it down near the three-minute mark, the fans were so mortified and silent that you could hear Roy Williams' head trying not to explode, and the cheerleaders' plucky attempts at firing up their home team echoed off the empty seats in the upper deck.

Yes, UNC has eight losses, and yes, Roy Williams is frustrated beyond belief, but let's not underestimate this. It is huge. It probably means very little for the future, because this is still a developing and undertalented team, but it is huge. We don't win in Chapel Hill very often. Nobody does. UNC was clearly the bigger, more athletic team yesterday (more on that later) and we were in their house, and we never trailed and beat them by 15 and it wasn't even that close. Michigan State - that's "#5 Michigan State" to you - couldn't even beat them, let alone by 15.

So what did we do to earn this?

- First, it's all about the pack-line. Defensively that is 100% of the reason we won. A near-perfectly executed pack-line defense. Now you know how it's supposed to work. I'm not sure what the final points-in-the-paint stat was, but at one point it was 20-5 in favor of the good guys. UNC is huge. You can't swing a dead cat in their locker room without hitting two or three guys who are 6'10". That's why they were killing us on the boards. Nobody with that many big galoots - all we have is Assane Sene and he played seven minutes - should be getting beat that badly in the paint, but it's hard to score from the paint if you can't get the ball to the paint. UNC couldn't pass the ball in there or dribble it in there or get it in there at all except by heaving up a missed three-pointer and hoping for the offensive rebound.

- Second: SYLVEN. Holy God, 29 points. Seemed like everything we tried on offense happened to work, and better yet, the Heels had nothing for Sylven Landesberg. How weird is it when you're playing UNC and they don't have the best guy on the floor?

- Jontel Evans is starting to catch up to the speed of the college game. He's starting to see the higher degree of difficulty plays that are out there for the making. Earlier in the season he would bring the ball up, dump it off to the wing, and run around not getting the ball while the offense went on without him. Now he's seeing where his options are and figuring out when he can make a play himself. He doesn't always get it right (as evidenced by his four turnovers) or even necessarily know where the lines are (as evidenced by one of those turnovers caused by having his damn heel on the sideline arrrgghh) but you can see the light bulb brighten as the season goes on.

- You know that feeling of dread when certain opposing players - J.J. Redick being the extreme example - go up for the shot from threeland? Do you think our opponents are feeling that way yet about Sammy? If not, they should - .470 is nasty good and good for best in the ACC right now.

What a difference a year makes in North Carolina games. Last year it was UVA fans bitching about Dave Leitao wearing a Carolina blue tie for the Carolina game. This year it's UNC's fans (yeah, not just the beat writers) bitching about Tony Bennett not wearing one at all. Following up a football win in Chapel Hill with a basketball win in Chapel Hill.....it's like the ghost of Ronald Curry came back to UNC and decided to extend his curse to Carolina's home games, too.

Miscellaneous items o' fun:

- Matt Schaub is your Pro Bowl MVP after nearly getting snubbed out of the game entirely. That'll learn 'em.

- Scott Stadium is the best venue in the ACC.

- Recruiting board update: 2010 only. Last one before signing day. Now I owe you two recruit profiles: Lawe, and Mike Rocco. I don't know what the hell I'm going to write about yet another quarterback.

- UNC game video will be posted later tonight, so watch for that. EDIT - this is now done, and you can find it as usual by clicking through to the videos page.

snow day ramblings

Wheeeeeeeeeeeee I don't have to go to work today. So comin' at you a little early with the weekend's activities, sport by sport. I'll start with the fastest and most emo:

Basketball

We suck. It's really just depressing anymore. Three games left in the season: first, at Clemson, which is going to be a demolition of epic proportions for several reason. Second, the home finale against Maryland. Third, the tournament game against whoever's sixth-seeded, which will be one of Clemson, Maryland, VT, or BC. I'll admit - the last few games have been competitive and it wouldn't have taken much swing back our way to make this a much sunnier section of the blog. But then again, that's what happens to bad teams - they can't make their own luck.

I'm working on some form of season recap which I plan on posting sometime between the Maryland game and the tournament game. Til then I'm going easy on the basketball stuff. I can only take so much emo.

If you like, you can read the Basketblogpoll breakdown here, as well as those of previous weeks. I should have been pimping this earlier because the arguments of yours truly have been featured in past weeks. Good thing? Sometimes. Sometimes its because your ballot is messed all to hell and you're simply being given your shot at asplaining yourself.

Swimming

Dominance, again. Things are in their rightful order with a sweep of both the men's and women's ACC championships. What's most exciting though is that, as with the women, much of the dominating is done by underclassmen. Particularly in the freestyle, where we have three sophomores and a freshman taking home scads of long-distance points. Any swim team that wants to win any championship has to have a deep base of talented freestylers because free is (in the case of the ACC championships) 8 of 18 swim events, leaving 10 events to be spread among the other four disciplines. This team will be champions for a long time to come with this kind of talent spread.

In particular, Matt McLean, who:

- Won three events
- Took home the most valuable swimmer award
- Made history by being the first ACC swimmer to do that two years in a row, and....
- Is a sophomore

I'm already looking forward to the chance at a three-peat.

Lacrosse

Big win. Big win. The furious comeback we almost gave up, that's a little bit worrisome, but the game was on the road and the crowd was huge for a regular-season lacrosse game - it wouldn't have fit in the JPJA - so I'm willing to overlook that despite the second-half trend this season of letting off the gas. I'm especially happy about two things: Big-time scorers (Glading, Billings, and Shamel Bratton) stepping up in a big-time game, and of course, the excellent advantage on the faceoffs. I'm now officially excited about that. If Gaudet and Ryan Benincasa can keep up the pace they've got going now, it'll pay huge dividends when the games are for all the marbles. VMI is next, and the only real danger here is overlooking a bad team that got sandwiched between two pretty good ones.

Football

Recruiting, obviously. The board is updated with the following:

- Added QB Andrew Hendrix, whom we have offered, to the yellow section. He is a teammate of DE/LB Marcus Rush, a player also in the yellow section but if I had, like, bluish-yellow and reddish-yellow, he'd definitely be closer to blue.

- Added LB Kevin Pierre-Louis to the red section. I meant to do this last week, as he decommitted from Boston College, and completely forgot. I don't think our chances are exactly spectacular though, and he might well end up right back at BC.

- Moved WR E.J. Scott from yellow to blue now that he has his offer. He's looking good for us.

Some notes from the pros regarding our graduates....

- Chris Canty is getting paid, and as a bonus, now you can root for him without having to pull for the Cowboys.

- The Texas traded Sage Rosenfels to the Vikings and replaced him with the Lions' Dan Orlovsky. Meaning? They traded away a guy who was once considered a threat to Matt Schaub's starting job and filled the hole with a guy who did this. Consider Schaub's job more solid than it was a week ago.