season preview: Virginia Tech

No logo for this one. Like I'm gonna put the VT thing on the front page here when I don't have to.

Media prediction: 6th

ACC schedule:

Twice: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Virginia
Once: Georgia Tech (H), Maryland (A), Miami (A), North Carolina (H), NC State (H), Wake Forest (A)

2007 All-ACC:

First team: None
Second team: F A.D. Vassallo
Third team: None
Freshman: F Jeff Allen
Defensive: None
HM: F Deron Washington, F Deron Washington (def.), F Jeff Allen (def.)

(italics: returning)

Projected starters:

PG: Malcolm Delaney (So.)
SG: Dorenzo Hudson (So.)
SF: A.D. Vassallo (Sr.)
PF: Jeff Allen (So.)
C: Cheick Diakite (Sr.)

Bench:

F Victor Davila (Fr.)
G Hank Thorns (So.)
G Terrell Bell (So.)
F Lewis Witcher (Jr.)

(italics: returning starter)

Coach: Seth Greenberg (6th season)

Were the preseason predictions a little premature? VT looked like a very dangerous team in September. The Hokies lost Deron Washington to the NBA draft, but the figuring was that point guard Malcolm Delaney and forward Jeff Allen, with a year of seasoning under their belt, would be able to step up and help A.D. Vassallo shoulder the scoring load, and the Hokies would be just as strong, if slightly inconsistent due to their youth.

Mostly this has happened. Delany and Allen are well above their scoring pace from last year, and Allen is a boardmonster besides, grabbing nearly 10 per game. These are going to be the three guys you have to stop. You have a pretty fair chance of beating the Hokies if you can do this, because they're getting very little help from other quarters. Top reserve Victor Davila is good for a quality game here and there, but is inconsistent. Davila is a freshman - you'd expect this. Starting shooting guard Dorenzo Hudson isn't carrying his share of the load either. Hudson is not an especially good shooter, and is hitting on just 28% of his shots this year.

So increasingly it's looking like Tech is a three-man show. They're incredibly young - only three upperclassmen in the rotation - and that doesn't help. Pick a stat category - seriously, just about any stat category at all - and Vassallo, Allen, and Delaney are 1, 2, and 3, in varying orders. Literally the only exception is blocks, in which defensive specialist center Cheick Diakite noses in there, second on the team and bumps Delaney to fourth.

It'll help when they get forward J.T. Thompson back from hernia surgery, which ought to be in time for the ACC season. Even with Thompson, the depth will be a sticking point for this team all season. Teams that can key in on any one of the three stars should usually be able to stop the Hokies, and they'll have a rough ride in the conference on nights when Vassallo, Allen, or Delaney don't have the shooting touch. Tech doesn't look like a March Madness team; it appears likely they'll slip to the NIT this year.

season preview: NC State

Yay Will Hill and all. I won't have too much more detail on him until my series of semi-in-depth looks at our verbal commitments catches up to him. That sort of fell by the wayside during the season but now that that's over, I can pick it back up. Soon as I'm done with these. Only three more.....

Media prediction: 9th

ACC schedule:

Twice: Boston College, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Once: Clemson (A), Duke (A), Florida State (H), Maryland (H), Virginia (H), Virginia Tech (A)

2007 All-ACC:

First team: None
Second team: None
Third team: None
Defensive: None
Freshman: F J.J. Hickson
HM: F J.J. Hickson

(italics: returning)

Projected starters:

PG: Javier Gonzalez (So.)
SG: Courtney Fells (Sr.)
SF: Brandon Costner (Jr.)
PF: C.J. Williams (Fr.)
C: Ben McCauley (Sr.)

Bench:

G Farnold Degand (Jr.)
F Tracy Smith (So.)
G Trevor Ferguson (Jr.)
F Dennis Horner (Jr.)
G Julius Mays (Fr.)

(italics: returning)

Coach: Sidney Lowe (3rd season)

Things don't bode so well in Raleigh. NC State was not a very good team last year, and they lost their two best players. J.J. Hickson played like a first round draft pick as a freshman last year, and then decided to go be a first round draft pick. Gavin Grant ran out of eligibility. This season will be an uphill battle for the 'Pack most of the way.

All is not lost though. The talent appears lacking, but the Wolfpack have two things that can go a long way in a tough season: experience, and a large rotation. Actually, a large rotation can sometimes be a sign of the top players just not being good enough to squeeze out the bottom ones, but it's nice to have options. That experience is coming in very handy too. The two seniors in the starting lineup are Courtney Fells and Ben McCauley, who are currently #1 and #2 on the team in scoring. Fells is the leading returning scorer from last year, so you'd expect that. McCauley, on the other hand, has never been a boardmonster like he has so far this year, pulling down 9.3 rebounds per game. McCauley showed what he can do during his sophomore season, but Hickson gobbled up his minutes last year and he went into a huge funk. He's back with a vengeance, and NC State will rely on that outside-inside punch when crunch time rolls around. Brandon Costner is also vigorously grabbing rebounds at about twice the rebound-per-minute pace of last year, after sort of ignoring that part of his game in '07-'08.

The point right now is left to Javier Gonzalez as Farnold Degand returns - slowly - from a knee injury. Gonzalez has been happy to dish the ball to his teammates and chuck the occasional three - one of which he is good at, the other not so much. His four assists per game are much improved over last year. When Degand finally gets back into the swing of things, his play off the bench will probably dictate whether or not he replaces Gonzalez in the lineup.

Off the bench, NC State's main offense comes from Tracy Smith and Trevor Ferguson; Smith from inside with a so-far-team-leading .577 shooting percentage and Ferguson from outside (Ferguson has only put up five two-point balls this year compared with 18 threes.) Smith's scoring prowess shouldn't surprise - he was second only to Hickson last year in shooting percentage. NC State can be a lot more dangerous if Degand proves worthy of regaining his spot in the starting lineup and bumps Gonzalez to play with the second unit.

What the Wolfpack have is a lineup of pretty much anonymous, decent basketball players. It's the sort of lineup that could make them something of an outside contender in, say, the SEC. Not so much when you have to play UNC twice. This isn't really a tournament team, but a good showing in the conference - which for these guys would probably be 7-9 or even 6-10 - could get them an NIT spot.

season preview: North Carolina

Besides just this preview (only three to go after this one!) it's worth a mention that the football all-ACC teams have been selected, and congrats are in order to Eugene Monroe and John Phillips (first team), Clint Sintim and Ras-I Dowling (second team), and Kevin Ogletree and Cedric Peerman (honorable mention). The breakdown goes like this:

First teamers:

Georgia Tech: 4
Wake Forest: 3
Boston College: 3
Florida State: 3
Maryland: 3
North Carolina: 2
Virginia: 2
Clemson: 2
Duke: 1
NC State: 1
Virginia Tech: 1
Miami: 0

Total:

Boston College: 9
Maryland: 9
Florida State: 8
Georgia Tech: 8
Virginia Tech: 8
North Carolina: 7
Virginia: 6
Clemson: 5
Wake Forest: 5
Duke: 4
NC State: 4
Miami: 3

Now for UNC. They are, of course, a freaking machine.

Media prediction: 1st (and it's unanimous)

ACC schedule:

Once: Boston College (H), Clemson (H), Florida State (A), Georgia Tech (H), Virginia Tech (A), Wake Forest (A)
Twice: Duke, Maryland, Miami, NC State, Virginia

2007 All-ACC:

First team: F Tyler Hansbrough
Second team: G Wayne Ellington
Third team: None
Freshman: None
Defensive: G Marcus Ginyard
HM: G Ty Lawson, F Tyler Hansbrough (def.)

(italics: returning)

Projected starters: (obviously by this point in the season it's not so much a projection any more)

PG: Ty Lawson (Jr.)
SG: Wayne Ellington (Jr.)
SF: Marcus Ginyard (Sr.)
PF: Deon Thompson (Jr.)
C: Tyler Hansbrough (Sr.)

Bench:

F Danny Green (Sr.)
G Bobby Frasor (Sr.)
F Tyler Zeller (Fr.)
F Ed Davis (Fr.)
G Will Graves (So.)
G Larry Drew (Fr.)

(italics: returning)

Coach: Roy Williams (6th year)

There's hardly any sense in bothering to analyze these guys. Where, exactly, is the weak point in their lineup? Deon Thompson? He's the one guy in the lineup who isn't as big a name, and oh by the way he's averaging 16 and 8 right now. Such is the magic of North Carolina basketball that by all rights, most of their lineup ought to have jumped to the NBA by now. UNC should be having to try and rebuild and nobody would feel the slightest bit sorry for them because rebuilding with three McDonald's All-Stars (Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller, Larry Drew) doesn't sound like such a difficult thing to do.

So you'll have to forgive me if I sound a little slobberish and overeffusive when I talk about UNC. But the fact is, when our two teams tip off on Jan. 28, there is nothing we can do to stop them. There's college basketball, then there's ACC basketball, and then there's championship basketball, and this is championship basketball. Let's key in on All-Cosmos Tyler Hansbrough, and maybe if we're lucky Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson won't carpet-bomb threes on us. Wait, no, let's play a zone to stop their guards from penetrating, and then we can hear about how Psycho T broke out of the strait jacket again and went terrorizing the town, collecting 24 rebounds along the way.

The only thing that can stop this UNC team is injuries, and right now even that's not working. Marcus Ginyard will be out until the conference season, and Hansbrough is sort of not quite exactly healthy, and UNC just nuked an NIT team (UNC-Asheville) by 68. Without Hansbrough. That's after dropping 102 on Luke Harangody's Notre Dame team. All five of those starting players could step on a land mine and UNC would still have enough talent for a single-digit seed in the tournament.

So, expectations? Oh, just a little. UNC made the Final Four last year, which is nice, you always want to make the Final Four, but losing to Kansas might have had a little bit of an effect on all these guys' decisions to come back. Return to school they did, and now the only thing that'll appease their appetite is trophies, and lots of 'em. It's national title or bust for these guys. Anyone dumb enough to bet against them?

season preview: Miami

So much for having these done by Thanksgiving. That's two days away and there's still four more to go. Maybe two weeks? Ish?

And speaking of Thanksgiving: we interrupt for a programming message. Expect only two posts between now and Monday evening: the Cletus game preview at some unknown time on Friday, and Blogpoll ballot Sunday night. I may squeeze in a Syracuse game preview on Friday as well, but that's not pre-written like the football one is, so "maybe" is the operative word. Just in case I don't, here's the short version: they'll slaughter us. Now: Miami Hurricanes basketball.

(Oh by the way: Sylven Landesberg is 2-for-2 with rookie of the week honors. His UVA career is off to a roaring start. Now, Miami for real.)

Media prediction: 4th

ACC schedule:

Twice: Boston College, Florida State, Maryland, North Carolina, NC State
Once: Clemson (H), Duke (A), Georgia Tech (A), Virginia (A), Virginia Tech (H), Wake Forest (H)

2007 All-ACC:

First team: G Jack McClinton
Second team: None
Third team: None
Freshman: None
Defensive: None
HM: None

(italics: returning)

Projected starters:

PG: Eddie Rios (So.)
SG: Jack McClinton (Sr.)
G: James Dews (Jr.)
F: Cyrus McGowan (Jr.)
F: Dwayne Collins (Jr.)

Bench:

F Jimmy Graham (Sr.)
G Lance Hurdle (Sr.)
F DeQuan Jones (Fr.)
F Brian Asbury (Sr.)

Coach: Frank Haith (5th year)

There is a little bit of a now-or-never aspect to this Miami team. With four seniors in the rotation, particularly all-ACC standout SG Jack McClinton, it's one of the most experienced rosters in the conference.

McClinton has this nasty good aim from downtown, hitting on nearly 43%, and he's a stone-cold lock at the free throw line - he missed just ten all of last season. He's not alone either. Miami is a ridiculously good free-throw shooting team, with four players that hit better than 80% from the line. That's part of the reason why this is such a now-or-never year for the Canes - three of those players are seniors, the lone exception being James Dews. Dews and McClinton are joined in the starting backcourt by sophomore Eddie Rios - Coach Frank Haith likes a three-guard starting lineup, and Rios has gotten the nod so far this year over senior Lance Hurdle.

Hurdle started twenty games last year, and fellow senior Brian Asbury started sixteen. Miami has the tremendous luxury this season of being able to bring both these players off the bench. There's very little, if any, drop-off there from the starting lineup, and Asbury in particular is a weapon. He adds a little bit of everything to the stat sheet - points, rebounds, steals - and does it all very well, and you can't foul him because he's one of those 80% free throw shooters - .845, to be precise.

The only hole in the lineup is leading rebounder Anthony King, who graduated. He had plenty of help from Dwayne Collins in the frontcourt last year, though, and the 'Canes add Cyrus McGowan as a transfer from Arkansas. Collins, McGowan, and senior Jimmy Graham - a big body off the bench at 250+ pounds - will ensure there's no hangover from the loss of King.

Miami's experience is frankly, scary. Not many teams can bring a bench like they have. The starters, especially McClinton, are plenty good in their own right, but Miami is going to win games this season when the starters rotate out and they can match their bench against yours. They'll win that matchup most days. Last year, Miami went to the NCAA's as a 7 seed and nearly missed out on upsetting #2 seeded Texas in the second round. Expect a higher seed this year - a 7th seed would be a disappointment and a waste of all that senior leadership.

season preview: Maryland

ACC Roundtable roundup coming tomorrow. Waiting for one more response, but I'll post it tomorrow either way. So I apologize - today was going to be roundup day, instead you get an ugly flasher turtle because it's Maryland's turn in the hopper.

Media prediction: 7th

ACC schedule:

Twice: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia
Once: Boston College (H), Clemson (A), Florida State (A), NC State (A), Virginia Tech (H), Wake Forest (H)

2007 All-ACC:

First team: None
Second team: G Greivis Vasquez, F James Gist
Third team: None
Freshman: None
Defensive: F James Gist
HM: None

(italics: returning)

Projected starters:

PG: Greivis Vasquez (Jr.)
SG: Eric Hayes (Jr.)
SF: Cliff Tucker (So.)
PF: Landon Milbourne (Jr.)
C: Braxton Dupree (So.)

Bench:

G Sean Mosley (Fr.)
G Adrian Bowie (So.)
F Cliff Tucker (So.)
F Jin Soo Kim (Fr.)
F Dave Neal (Sr.)

(italics: returning starter)

Coach: Gary Williams (20th year)

It's all about the perimeter in College Park. Guards guards guards. Last year, Maryland had a pair of pretty dominant forwards in Bambale Osby and James Gist, and with a sophomore manning the point, Osby and Gist provided the leadership, the defense, and a huge chunk of the scoring. But now they're gone, and that sophomore is a junior, a fiery Venezuelan by the name of Greivis Vasquez (you might have heard of him, given his second team all-conference status), and the leadership burden is now on his shoulders.

Vasquez has played alongside Eric Hayes for two years now, and the combination is going to be a dangerous one. These guys have grown up together with a combined 97 starts over the past two seasons, and the chances are good that one or the other (usually Vasquez) will lead Maryland in scoring on any given night.

If not, it'll be Landon Milbourne, who's equally deadly as Hayes (if not quite as prolific) from 3-point land. Milbourne, like the other two, is a junior, but unlike the other two, waited until last year for his breakout party. He caught up fast, though. These are the three names you'll hear called far more than any other during a Maryland game. Cliff Tucker is another guardish forward that rounds out the Terrapins' perimeter-heavy starting lineup.

Despite these three, Maryland is picked only 7th in the conference. Part of that is because this is the friggin' ACC - the Memphis Grizzlies would probably be picked 4th. The rest of that is because of the squishy middle that Maryland offers. With Gist and Osby gone, the interior is a huge, looming question mark. They could have really used 6'10" Augustus Gilchrist, but too bad, so sad, he's gone to South Florida. That leaves Braxton Dupree to man the middle - so far this season, though, he's getting outrebounded by the point guard. Dupree and Dave Neal represent Maryland's only real bulk in the middle. Neither is going to be called on to score, but if Maryland's going to make any noise at all in the ACC, they're going to have to play far bigger roles than they're used to, especially on their own end of the court.

Maryland's extremely iffy frontcourt is going to keep them from serious ACC title contention. But their excellent backcourt (including Tucker and Milbourne, who are nominally forwards but not low-post bangers) makes them capable of being a nasty surprise to someone who's got real championship aspirations. Their schedule might keep them from having as successful a regular season as they might like - they get three of the top four media picks twice. But a strong ACC tournament run is a real possibility, and that could be enough to earn them a middle-to-lowish seed in the NCAAs. For sure, they won't drop down below the NIT.

season preview: Georgia Tech

Media prediction: 8th

ACC schedule:

Twice: Boston College, Clemson, Maryland, NC State, Wake Forest
Once: Duke (H), Florida State (A), Miami (H), North Carolina (A), Virginia (H), Virginia Tech (A)

2007 All-ACC:

First team: None
Second team: None
Third team: None
Freshman: None
Defensive: None
HM: G Anthony Morrow, F D'Andre Bell (def.)

(italics: returning)

Projected starters:

PG: Maurice Miller (So.)
SG: Lewis Clinch (Sr.)
SF: Zach Peacock (Jr.)
PF: Gani Lawal (So.)
C: Alade Aminu (Sr.)

Bench:

G Iman Shumpert (Fr.)
G Lance Storrs (So.)
F Bassirou Dieng (Sr.)
C Brad Sheehan (So.)

(italics: returning starter)

Coach: Paul Hewitt (9th season)

All those returning starters are usually a good sign. With such a large stable of returning players, Tech signed only one player (but a really good one) in their recruiting class of 2008. But the story for now is who's not in the lineup. GT's best defensive player last year, D'Andre Bell, is out for the season following spinal surgery. Scary. And with Lewis Clinch out for seven games with an acute report card sprain, Tech is instead relying on freshman Iman Shumpert and sophomore Maurice Miller to carry what was supposed to be a senior-laden backcourt.

Not that they're entirely in trouble. Shumpert is the aforementioned top recruit, and he turned down the likes of UNC to go to Atlanta. Miller started almost 20 games last season as a freshman, so he has the necessary experience under his belt, and is a nearly .400 3-point shooter besides. And Clinch is not really a deadeye shot. Quantity rather than quality is what earns him his points, and it's possible he finds himself relegated to the bench if Shumpert proves too valuable to bench.

In the frontcourt, the Jackets will have a weapon if sophomore Gani Lawal can harness his shot. Lawal has a real chance to lead the team in scoring, but he needs to improve his pathetic free-throw shooting (not even a .500 shooter) and play with more consistency. He can't look for help from Alade Aminu, who starts alongside him - Aminu is a space-eater, in the game to defend and rebound. Zach Peacock may be the X-factor. Their top bench player a year ago, he moves into the starting lineup this year.

Georgia Tech will probably take a step back this season - and they didn't exactly light up the postseason (or even appear in it) last year. Only two players - Anthony Morrow and Jeremis Smith - were good enough to start every game for them last year, and they're gone, as is their defensive stopper. Lawal and Shumpert may be their most talented players, but Shumpert is a freshman and Lawal has inconsistency issues to overcome. Tech is not likely to make any postseason tournament higher than the CBI.

season preview: Florida State

Trying to burn through these and hopefully have them done before Thanksgiving. Also working on some semblance of a game preview for the VMI game on Sunday, though I'm not real sure exactly what form that's gonna take yet.

Media prediction: 10th

ACC schedule:

Twice: Clemson, Duke, Miami, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Once: Boston College (A), Georgia Tech (H), Maryland (H), North Carolina (H), NC State (A), Wake Forest (A)

2007 all-ACC:

First team: None
Second team: None
Third team: G Toney Douglas
Defensive: G Toney Douglas
Freshman: None
HM: None

(italics: returning)

Projected starters:

PG: Toney Douglas (Sr.)
SG: ???
SF: Uche Echefu (Sr.)
PF: Ryan Reid (Jr.)
C: Solomon Alabi (Fr.)

Bench:

F Jordan DeMercy (So.)
F Chris Singleton (Fr.)
C Xavier Gibson (Fr.)
G Luke Loucks (Fr.)
G Devidas Dulkys (Fr.)
G Derwin Kitchen (So.)

(italics: returning starter)

Coach: Leonard Hamilton (7th year)

Florida State is not a basketball school. Let's just get that out of the way right now. They are a football school in a basketball conference. 17 ACC seasons have resulted in just three winning seasons within the conference. That said, however, Leonard Hamilton is slowly bringing the program to the point where there are actual Expectations in Tallahassee. The last three years have brought the team 58 wins, the best three-year stretch since 1991-94 when they had 59.

Unless the kids show up to play, though, this year looks like a step back for FSU. Three of the top four scorers have departed, leaving senior point guard Toney Douglas in charge of the show. Douglas is a very respectable scorer in his own right; more of a scoring point guard, in fact. You have to watch out for him on defense as well; Douglas was 6th in the entire country last year in steals with 90. Next closest in the ACC was 64.

It's still a bit murky as to who will play the 2 guard, however. Last year, FSU had an embarrassment of riches in the backcourt. The only player who really looks like a shooting guard is Lithuanian freshman Devidas Dulkys (every team has got to have a Lithuanian dude at some point). Dulkys fits neatly into the shooting whitey stereotype and could well end up in the starting role in order to get a deadeye shot into the lineup to keep teams from sagging down low and focusing on stopping the frontcourt.

Down on that frontcourt, people will have to worry about Solomon Alabi, who is 7'1" but has a 7'3" wingspan. Alabi's only sort of a freshman, as last year was a medical redshirt year. He'll move into the starting lineup alongside forwards Ryan Reid and Uche Echefu. These are the two guys more than anyone on the team that will have to play well for FSU to have a good year. Douglas will get his buckets, but Reid and Echefu are going to be asked to help carry the scoring load for the first time in their careers.

If they can't, look for uber-recruit Chris Singleton to step right in. Singleton chose FSU over places like Georgetown, Kentucky, and Florida, and the Seminole fans will probably be clamoring for his appearance in the starting lineup if the upperclassmen can't get it done.

This team is loaded with talented freshmen and led by a battle-tested senior. But, they're going to struggle to replace all those points that graduated, and freshmen are nothing if not inconsistent. Don't look for FSU in the NCAA's this year, nor for them to improve on that long history of losing records in-conference. But these guys should be good enough to eke out an NIT bid. This won't really comfort the faithful who've been waiting since 1998 to get back to the NCAAs, but they can pin their hopes for the future on Singleton and the rest of this '08 recruiting class.

season preview: defense

I really feel like watching at least some of that South Carolina-NC State game (that's right, I'm actually depriving myself of real, actual football so that I can get this stuff posted, just for you.) So it will be a toss-up as to whether the USC game preview goes up tomorrow morning or tomorrow afternoon. Leaning toward afternoon so these season previews, which I really did spend some time on, don't get shoved to the bottom, unread and unloved. In that vein, by the way, here is the link to the offense preview.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Let’s squash any misplaced over-optimism right now, once and for all: At absolutely no point during this year will the defensive line be better than it was last year. Chris Long was a destroyer of offenses. The line could have been made up of Chris Long and two cotton candy statues and I would have called it a 5 out of 5. Jeffrey Fitzgerald was not a cotton candy statue, and he is also gone. When the defense trots out against USC, the three biggest guys in blue will all be different players than last year.

And freshmen abound. At either the first or second spot on the depth chart, there is a redshirt freshman at each position. Notably, there is Matt Conrath (#94) slated to start at one of the ends. This was going to be Sean Gottschalk’s (#99) spot, but he has not been consistently practicing due to an “undisclosed health issue.” He may be Wally Pipp’d right out of a starting job, because Conrath has been lighting up the newspaper articles and message boards with his play this fall. Long himself had terrific things to say about Conrath, and that was without even seeing him in a game. There’s a great deal more experience with the rest of the starters; Alex Field (#93) on the other end and Nate Collins (#98) in the middle were the top reserves and played in every game last year. Collins is an exceptional athlete overall; the guy actually played some quarterback in high school and acquitted himself well for a 270 pounder. (He’s bigger now.) But Groh likes redshirt freshman Nick Jenkins (#96), too, and we could see a lot of Jenkins this year. Last year Collins rotated with Allen Billyk and got about 35-40% of the snaps, and a similar rotation may be in the cards, with Collins taking over Billyk’s role.

So there’s really plenty of reason to believe that this line will perform quite well. Chris Long was one of those rare players who could change a game by himself from the trenches, and none of these guys are that level. But they’re good players in their own right. Counterintuitively, the 3-4 system demands better line play than the 4-3; because there are fewer of them, it’s harder to cover up poor play. A weak defensive tackle can be helped out by the stronger one in a 4-3, but if the 3-4 nose tackle is no good, the linebackers can’t help until the play is already four yards downfield. That’s why Groh rotates nose tackles more frequently than the ends. Yes, the starting ends were dominant last year, but they’re not this year, and Groh’s still looking for that near-even split of playing time at tackle. Fortunately, this looks like a group that can handle itself.

Rating: 3 out of 5.

LINEBACKERS

Always the stars of an Al Groh defense. Like the tight ends, just fire up the conveyor belt and bring on the next great Wahoo linebacker. This year, it’s Clint Sintim (#51), who is the defensive half of our preseason all-ACC selections. His side of the field will be damn near impossible for teams to run on, because next to him is Jon Copper (#54). Oh, and then there’s Copper’s fellow inside ‘backer, Antonio Appleby (#58). These three have started every game together since the beginning of the 2006 season. By their powers combined they are awesome – the best linebacking corps in the ACC, and that’s only three of four. The other outside spot will be manned by either Denzel Burrell (#45) or Aaron Clark (#41). Probably both, actually. Burrell is a junior and Clark is a senior, and both have similar waited-for-their-turn stories because in front of them was Jermaine Dias, who was a three-year starter at that spot.

Expect there to be rotation at all linebacker spots, because otherwise the conveyor belt will come to a screeching halt. If you call Clark the starter, then all four starters are seniors, and suddenly Denzel Burrell will find himself the graybeard of the bunch. There’s only one other junior linebacker, which is Darren Childs (#49), who’s got all of five plays under his belt. Jared Detrick (#55) and John-Kevin Dolce (#59) are the other backups, and only Detrick has anything you could call experience – he got into 11 games last year as a true freshman. These guys will rotate into the game so Groh can get a look for next year.

Rating: 4 out of 5. The only Butkus Watchlist guy is Sintim, but Copper is the leading tackler.

SECONDARY

Another position of strength, especially at corner. Vic Hall (#4) and Ras-I Dowling (#19) make up one of the better tandems in the conference. This is mainly due to potential more than past performance because unlike linebacker, there are no seniors in the two-deep at corner. Hall is one of the team’s best athletes. Dowling was a true freshman last year and had the kind of season where the coaches almost feel forced to put him in more and more. He earned last year’s Bill Dudley Award as UVA’s best first-year player, and scraped up a couple all-freshman honors in the conference and the nation, too. Dowling’s got a bit of a leg injury, which could put Dom Joseph (#23) on the field some against USC, but he’s still listed at the top of the depth chart. (By contrast, Gottschalk doesn’t appear.)

At safety, there’s Byron Glaspy (#22) and then questions. Glaspy has two years of starting experience under his belt, which is nice. Brandon Woods (#17) has two years of special teams coverage play under his belt, which is cause for a few questions. But he and Glaspy are the only two upperclassmen playing safety. This isn’t really as huge a deal as I’m melodramatically making it sound, because he’ll be helped immensely by playing next to a guy as experienced as Glaspy, and it’s not as easy for an offense to exploit a weakness at safety (if Woods turns out to be one.)

The depth here is pretty young. Besides Joseph, there’s Chase Minnifield (#31). Minnifield has the Pro Bowl bloodlines; his father, Frank, was a long-time cornerback for the Cleveland Browns. Both those two are redshirt freshmen; the rest of the secondary depth chart are sophomores. Experience is thin after the starting four, and even the starting four aren’t as experienced as you’d like.

Rating: 3 out of 5, but the potential exists for a boost, if Dowling and Hall maximize their athletic ability and stay healthy.

PUNTING

It’s Jimmy Howell (#8). He’s the only guy on scholarship. Um, John Thornton (#4) lives on the Lawn, so, awesome for him. But he won’t be doing any actual punting.

FRESHMEN ON THE FIELD

DE Matt Conrath
NT Nick Jenkins
CB Dom Joseph
CB Chase Minnifield

IN A NUTSHELL

Defense had better be the strength of this team, because it’s sure not likely to be the offense. The offense has pieces to the puzzle, but just as many question marks. On defense there are only two new starters once you get past the line, and that line itself isn’t bad either. The offense is poorly equipped to make any dramatic comebacks that require scoring more than once, so the defense cannot let the team get into any holes. They should be very strong against the run, and even a little bit of a pass rush would give the corners all they need to keep opponents’ passing games in check. Last year, most games were pretty low scoring – this defense even frustrated the flashy Texas Tech offense – and that looks to continue this year.

season preview: offense

As promised. The first of two. Tomorrow, we'll "tackle" (HAHA) the defense.

QUARTERBACKS

OK, we all know the drill. And we don’t know who’ll win the three-way derby between Peter Lalich (#7), Scott Deke (#15), and Marc Verica (#6). Some are excited about the possibility of Riko Smalls (#3) seeing some time, but if that ever happens in any capacity other than to throw the defense off their rhythm, and very, very occasionally, we are frankly dead meat. Verica is said to have the strongest arm; Deke is the fifth-year senior who has already graduated; Lalich is the golden recruit. Here’s the deal, though. If you buy that recruiting rankings are a good judge of raw talent, then Lalich has far and away the most, and if so then it’s a disconcerting sign that he didn’t blow away the coaches and seize the job in spring practice. Deke is a career clipboard stand who has never had even a sniff at the job until this, his fifth and final year in the program; that does not say “big-time talent.” He is in the hunt because he’s the most experienced and theoretically the most familiar with the offense, but as he’s never been in the hunt before, expectations would not be high if the job is his.

The prevailing opinion, both here and elsewhere, is that Lalich will be the starter when USC kicks off. He has too much talent not to be. The contrarian opinion floating aroud is that, Lalich being the only quarterback that Pete Carroll has any tape on, Groh will pull an ol’ switcheroo and put Deke in there, then eventually replace him with Lalich. My feeling is that it doesn’t matter what tape Carroll has, both of them are going to take their three and five step drops and not scoot around, and until they actually let go of the ball you could switch the numbers and nobody would notice, at least not as far as a defensive coordinator is concerned with trying to put together a plan of attack. Whether Deke plays or not, his presence can hopefully have a positive impact on Lalich; without him, there would be no quarterback more senior than Verica on the roster.

Bottom line, then. Lalich did not have a stellar year in 2007. Freshman quarterbacks rarely blow you away with their play, and Lalich had his good times and his struggles like you’d expect from any freshman. But the struggles seem to have continued through spring and fall practice, because he hasn’t separated himself from a guy who has never been higher than third on the depth chart. Like 2006, there will be growing pains at this position.

Rating: 2 out of 5, and only Lalich would have the ability to make this go any higher, which is why he’s the one who I think will start.

RUNNING BACKS

You know the drill up and down here, too. Cedric Peerman (#37) and Mikell Simpson (#5) make one of the best tandems in the conference. By their powers combined they rushed for over 1,000 yards last year, with Peerman taking the first half of the season and Simpson taking over in the Maryland game after Peerman’s injury the week prior. It’s unlikely that Simpson can be counted on for 25-30 carries a game, but he is faster, more explosive, and a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield. Peerman runs mostly straight ahead and through people instead of around them. The running game is going to be fun to watch.

Just behind the terrible two is Raynard Horne (#44), who we should expect to see as the first option off the bench, though probably not a lot. Groh was asked earlier this summer if the rotation would include a third tailback; his answer, though not in so few words, was “not bloody likely.”

What of Keith Payne (#32), he of so much (probably a bit overstated) potential? Payne is listed on the depth chart as a fullback – the second fullback. Rashawn Jackson (#31) is the guy we can expect to see leading the way for the tailbacks. Rather surprisingly, Jackson was given 14 carries in the Gator Bowl and did pretty good, but don’t expect that to carry over to this season. Groh knows where his gravy train is, and there aren’t going to be a lot of carries to go around after Peerman and Simpson get theirs.

Rating: 4 out of 5. Peerman and Simpson aren’t quite Knowshon Moreno good, but they’re right there with the best in the conference.

WIDE RECEIVERS

‘Tree...whee!(?) Is he going to save the passing game by himself now that he‘s back from a pretty bad knee injury? Unlikely. The fly pattern is not on the front page of Al Groh’s playbook, and the last time a wide receiver played more than a supporting role in the offense, Matt Schaub was throwing to Billy McMullen. But Kevin Ogletree (#20) is also the best chance we’ve had at seeing a big-play receiver since the aforementioned #11. Wide receiver play, and not just that of Ogletree, will go a long way toward making this offense bigger and better than one dimension. Ogletree will need help, and in your humble blogger’s opinion he is most likely to get it from either Dontrelle Inman (#81) or Cary Koch (#26).

Inman came in well-rated by the recruiting services and had a decent campaign for a freshman wide receiver in an offense which de-emphasized the position. Inman should be a good one to watch in the future. Koch transferred in from Tulane after Hurricane Katrina wiped out his major, and immediately found himself derailed with various annoying injuries. Koch’s freshman year was actually pretty good, with 23 catches for 308 yards, and his lack of notable production since then can be chalked up to a hamstring and an MCL. With health comes the chance to be a real sleeper in the ACC.

Koch and Inman, though, are actually listed second on the two-deep behind Ogletree and Maurice Covington (#80) respectively. Covington is a senior and we probably will not see very much from him that we haven’t already. He’ll be steady, and the numbers should rise from last year since he missed four games with a broken hand, but if there’s going to be a real breakthrough in the receiving corps, it likely will be from a lesser-known quantity. We’ve seen what Covington can do, and he’s not a game-breaker.

This is not to forget about Staton Jobe (#22). Jobe walked on to the team last year and walked his way right on to the field. He caught 17 passes last year and is definitely part of the rotation, if not exactly the two-deep. Kris Burd (#18) is another to watch for. Burd impressed the coaches in the offseason and we should expect to see them find a way to get him on the field this year. In a three-receiver set, Burd would be second on the depth chart behind Koch, in the slot.

What’s going to have to happen for the wide receivers to make a real impression on the offense is that someone will have to show they can consistently get open. Ogletree alone will make this offense more receiver-oriented than last year; 2007 was an anomaly even for Groh. He has the skills to beat single coverage, which means he’ll probably be seeing consistent doubles probably as soon as Game Number One. When that happens, someone - anyone, anyone at all - will need to show they can get open on the other side and keep the defenses honest. If they do it will make the offense exponentially better.

Rating: 2 out of 5, but with enough potential and depth to go as high as 4 by season’s end if all works out just right.

TIGHT ENDS

The moneymaker. My first year as a UVA fan was 2000, when Billy Baber was catching passes from Dan Ellis. Since then the only years in which a UVA tight end was not drafted into the NFL were the years when none of them were seniors. The player du jour at the position this year is John Phillips (#85), who caught 17 balls in 2007. Many offenses don’t even use their first tight end that much let alone their third. Little needs to be said - he proved dependable last year and will, as usual, be a big part of the offense this year. Behind him on the depth chart is Joe Torchia (#83). Torchia saw the field in goal-line situations last year when Groh felt like three or four tight ends would make a good blocking formation. No reason to believe that Torchia won’t simply ride the TE conveyor belt and make himself more than useful in the offense this year. Andrew Devlin (#87) will likely jump into Torchia’s old role.

Rating: 4 out of 5. The default setting for Al Groh tight ends. I’m convinced he could find a way to make Muggsy Bogues a good player at this position.

OFFENSIVE LINE

This is the lineup that will take the field against USC: Eugene Monroe (#75) and Will Barker (#61) are the tackles. This is the part of the line that’s in great shape, as long as Barker doesn’t take any more late-late-late night trips to the cooler at certain downtown bars. Both have loads of starting experience, and Monroe was Rivals’ #3 overall recruit in 2005 and is getting that kind of hype again as he enters his senior year. At guard we have Zak Stair (#76) on the left side and B.J. Cabbell (#65) on the right, and Jack Shields (#64) is the starting center. So what we have is progressively less and less experience as you move inward; Stair and Cabbell have seen the field mostly as part of the kick protection team, and Shields has played in exactly one game his whole career.

The backups are mostly freshman, so, ouch. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. The only one who isn’t is the backup RG, Isaac Cain (#78) and he’s got just as much experience as Shields does. Stuck back there somewhere is junior Patrick Slebonick, who has just as much experience as Shields and Cain. (See a trend here? The “one game” here is Pittsburgh for all three. You got it – scrub time in a blowout.) Slebonick, though, doesn’t appear in the two-deep thanks to true freshman Austin Pasztor (#63) who’s going to see his share of the field this year. Pasztor is listed as the backup to Zak Stair.

Rating: 3 out of 5. I’m actually pretty bullish on this group. The tackles are very good. The rest of the line is woefully inexperienced, but I think Dave Borbely has that covered. Branden Albert went from a middling three-star recruit to a top-ten pick in the NFL draft under Borbely’s tutelage. His awesomely massive mustache alone is worth some confidence points, and I think he’ll have this group ready to go.

KICKER

Yannick Reyering (#10) will be the kicker for at least the first game this year, having won the camp competition. Yannick Reyering is a former UVA soccer player; Yannick Reyering walked on to the football team after his soccer eligibility expired and now Yannick Reyering is the starter. If Groh had said, screw it, whoever has the coolest name gets to be the kicker, Yannick Reyering would still have won, hands down. But his backup would have been Zach Mendez-Zfass.

Rating: 2 out of 5. The guy is used to aiming for a much much bigger target with only one guy trying to block. He's done nicely in practice, especially for a German dude who not that long ago knew as much about football American-style as you do about Sepak Takraw. But games are another thing entirely. Keeping fingers crossed.

FRESHMEN ON THE FIELD

G Austin Pasztor (true)
WR Kris Burd (redshirt)
TE Andrew Devlin (redshirt)

IN A NUTSHELL

Forget quarterback. Lalich will probably get most of the starts and most of the snaps this year. And you can probably peg how good he’ll be – simply expect a natural progression from last year’s ups and downs, and don’t bet on a sudden out-of-nowhere banner season. The offense is going to hinge on two things: the interior linemen, and every wide receiver except for Kevin Ogletree. If Stair, Shields, and Cabbell are at least adequate, the running game will go places. Places like the end zone. The receivers need to take pressure off of Ogletree. He’s gonna get double-teamed all the damn time until somebody makes the defense pay for doing so. Phillips doesn’t count, he’s a tight end and therefore will be busy showing someone else’s defensive coordinator that linebackers can’t be trusted in pass coverage. It’s the safeties that have to stay off of Ogletree if he’s going to be any kind of a big-play threat at all, and they’re just going to blanket him if they know that whoever else is across from him can’t shake the single cornerback coverage.