breakdown

I think it's interesting that, sometimes, a seemingly unremarkable play catches the eye of a lot of different people, all independent of each other.  On third-and-18 on UVA's opening drive (an ominous phrase in and of itself) Greyson Lambert threw a screen to Kevin Parks that picked up two yards.  Really explosive offense, this.

I decided, for reasons unknown to myself, to rewind and see what had happened; perhaps the play looked like it should have picked up a great deal more.  Perhaps I was just perturbed, which would be understandable given that our opening salvo exploded in the breech.  Upon a second look, it was easy to see what had happened: Conner Davis whiffed a block, badly.

At least one game thread picked up on that fact too, and quickly; the play became a matter of discussion to the extent that a game thread allows.  Even more interestingly, eminent Sabre philosopher JHoo picked up on it too, and provided one small note that I missed on my own reviewing:

So plenty of folks did their job well … … but guard Conner Davis, who had responsibility for the outside man on the play – here, cornerback D.J. White – broke one of those little rules on screen passes: he looked back to watch the pass and see the completion.

I'm normally very loath to copy and paste paywalled stuff, but there's a point to be made here.

A third look at the play confirms it completely.  Davis had eyes only for the backfield; when he turned around after the catch, he found a defender flying past him.

Think about the implications of this.  Consider:

-- Davis is not only a fifth-year senior, but also the most experienced player on his unit.
-- This is a big game.  The players know the deal when it comes to bowl eligibility, as well as their coach's job situation.  And they happen to really like their coach and want to keep him around.
-- It's the third play of the game.  Everyone's fresh.  Fatigue is not a thing right now.
-- It's early, so we're almost certainly on a script here.  This play has been practiced a hundred times and the players know it's coming.

A fifth-year senior doesn't have the mental discipline to carry out a simple assignment.  That's a sad commentary.

That is not to single out Conner Davis.  The point is: if this is the case with our fifth-year seniors, it's the case all up and down the board.  Attention to detail waved bye-bye to Mike London ages ago, assuming the twain ever met.  And if it's foreign to the head coach, it's not getting passed on to the team.  This explains London's puzzling approach to clock management.  (Why didn't he take a timeout when GT faced 3rd-and-23 at the end of the first half?  It probably didn't even occur to him.)  This explains (in a blast from the past) how it's possible that London can make a big deal out of accountability in a press conference, and then forget to remove a player from kickoff duties whose bonehead kickoff penalty cost his team three points.

You might say it's unfair to extrapolate a whole huge generalization like that out of one play, but it's not like there isn't a mountain of evidence of London's failure to instill any mental discipline in himself or his team.  And the end-of-half play provided another example of the same.  Let's break down this play.

First off, some perspective on how hideously badly this play was executed.  UVA sent three receivers downfield and left seven men back in protect.  GT rushed three.  Four seconds after the snap, GT defensive end KeShun Freeman is swiping the ball out of Lambert's hands.

Seven on three and we can't protect the QB for five seconds.  That is pitiful.  The play starts with Zach Swanson lined up as an H-back, and in motion from left to right, likely because GT has overloaded the right side with defenders and is showing blitz on that side while the linebacker on his side is backing off.  Swanson is supposed to handle Freeman until the cavalry arrives in the form of Ryan Doull, pulling around from left to right as if it were a run play.  Swanson whiffs, badly, jumping outside while Freeman jumps inside.  Fortunately, Doull arrives just in time to give Freeman a shove that uses his own momentum to carry him well past the QB.  Swanson sees this and turns upfield, apparently seeing if there are any delayed rushers.  Finding that eight men have dropped into coverage, he spends the rest of the play looking a bit lost.

Doull's shove has taken Freeman out of the play momentarily.  That's enough for Doull, who decides the play is over, and starts spectating.  Freeman, of course, does not oblige, and Doull is just in time to gather up the ball from the ground (and earn an attaboy from the announcers for a "heads-up play", which would've been nice if it were true.)

Doull's a third-year player, and older than most, having taken a post-grad year as well.  Quitting on a play - it's just an inexcusable lack of sharpness from someone with his experience.  But it's fruitless to direct your anger at Doull.  This is the attitude that has permeated the whole team.  How can we expect the players to be mentally accountable if the head coach doesn't demand it?  For every such event easily spotted on TV, you can bet there are ten or fifteen more that are impossible to see.

It's hard to imagine a coach less interested in attention to detail than London is, which means the next coach will likely demand more of it than now, which means the players are in for a rude awakening when he shows up.  It might not be fun for them at first, but the end result will be a lot more watchable.

****************************

Quick brief things:

-- Some people are bellyaching about David Watford being in the game at receiver while Jamil Kamara languishes on the bench.  Oh please.  Nobody has any damn clue what Kamara is doing or not doing in order to not earn playing time, and the fact that London does actually seem to demand some kind of minimum standard of behavior or knowledge of the offense or something in order to earn your way onto the field - that does not register on the list of things to complain about.  You actually find people bringing up how bad he was as a quarterback, as if that somehow affects his ability to stick his hands out and hold on to a flying football.

-- If I'm London, I don't queue up one inch of game film on Florida State.  What good is preparation - take it from a 1% to a 2% chance to win that game?  Just punt that game - the path to a bowl game is much easier through Miami and VT, and hyper-preparation for the latter is not something I'd be against.

Prediction summary:

- Kevin Parks runs for 120 yards.  My God, not even close.  And no, being down 14-0, 21-7 in the first quarter is emphatically not a reason to abandon the run.  Maybe the fact that it wasn't working would've been a reason, but going pass-happy because of a two-TD deficit in the first half is pure panic.

- Keeon Johnson has a big day, which these days means four or more catches.  No, but he was certainly targeted more than often enough to succeed.

- UVA's season average for rushing yards allowed per attempt jumps at least a quarter-yard.  Remarkably, no.  I'm impressed.  It was very close, but didn't make it.  This is the point where I single out Max Valles for at least one ridiculously good play in which he got in position to discourage an option pitch and then ate up the quarterback.  Who the hell defends both options all by his own self?  Valles, that's who.  It was the football equivalent of Akil Mitchell's brilliant play on Jabari Parker from the ACC CG - you know the one.  Only, better.

- Lambert throws at least two more picks, one of which isn't his fault.  Tossing up a lame duck of a throw because he's being crushed by a pass rusher certainly qualifies.

Season prediction stats:

17-for-45 on specifics (38%)
5-3 straight up
4-2-1 ATS

the recruit: Ryan Bischoff

Name: Ryan Bischoff
Position: OG
Hometown: Plymouth Meeting, PA
School: Plymouth-Whitemarsh
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 305

24/7: 82, three stars; #77 OG, PA #32
ESPN: 73, three stars; #84 OG, PA #32, East #154
Rivals: 5.3, two stars
Scout: three stars

Other offers: None

Juan Thornhill committed before 2014's Signing Day, so Ryan Bischoff is really the first pickup of the cycle.  Being someone who harps and harps and harps on the lack of OL depth, I wasn't at all unhappy to see that first commitment be a lineman.

Like Thornill, Bischoff committed before getting any other offers.  Unlike Thornhill, Bischoff had a little time to receive them; his verbal to UVA was in April.  Does that mean less excitement?  Perhaps a smidge.  Bischoff is a tough prospect to evaluate.  He does have good size, and more than one evaluator suggests he should easily be able to pack on more.  I'll buy it; he's listed in a Philly.com article at 310 pounds, and though the accompanying picture is almost certainly not of a 310-pound kid, it does show how easily he carries a big frame.  310 also happens to be the largest listing of a scholarship player on the UVA roster.  Bischoff could nose his way up to perhaps, say, 325.  Perfect for a big guard.

It's also fairly easy to project him to guard, for two reasons.  One, if he had tackle-worthy footwork he'd be a four-star prospect at his size.  Two, his team runs the ball almost exclusively.  Rivals and Scout each have a different Hudl highlight tape, and in about ten minutes of highlights I think I saw three or four pass plays.  One of which was a receiver screen and another a regular screen.  Maybe one actual, real, drop-back pass with a pocket.  It's largely a read-option offense.  Therein lies the aforementioned difficulty in evaluating.

As such, you can start to see why the lack of early offers.  A guy like that, most teams will see his film and say, OK, let's get him into camp and see if he can do the stuff we want him to do.  Also, the only in-depth evaluation available is ESPN's, and they use the word "flash" (or "flashes") five times.  Honestly, that's not a great sign; it means "can, but doesn't always."  Still, you get the impression his chances to diversify his skill set are limited.

The sum, then, is a player whose impressive size and good strength are well ahead of his technical skills.  Guard naturally offers a faster route to the field, being well-suited to really, really huge guys and with less to learn overall.  It's hard to project a pathway, though.  OG is a bit more of a bottom-heavy position in terms of class; if Steven Moss comes in as a guard, then I count three or four freshman (true or redshirt) and only one freshman at tackle at most.  But it's also way up in the air.  The likely starters are Conner Davis and I guess Ross Burbank.  The post-spring depth chart has three guys who've played meaningful snaps, and so a lot depends on what happens with guys like Jack McDonald, Ryan Doull, Jake Fieler, Sean Karl, and so on.  Bischoff needs time to develop - almost all linemen do, Bischoff perhaps more than many - and the best thing will be if a solid group of next men up emerges.  If there's any pressure to toss Bischoff into the fire early, either he's a very pleasant surprise that belies his low-three-star, limiting-offense pedigree, or we're in trouble.  Much better is that Bischoff follows a path similar to Davis: getting stashed for two years and coming out of storage bigger and stronger and ready to watch his role expand to where he's just a given as a fifth-year senior.

game preview: Georgia Tech

Date/Time: Saturday, October 26; 12:30

TV: ACC Net., ESPN3

Record against the Jackets: 17-17-1

Last meeting: GT 56. UVA 20; 9/15/12, Atlanta

Last weekend: Duke 35, UVA 22; GT 56, Cuse 0

Line: GT by 10

Injury reports:

Virginia:

OUT - OL George Adeosun, CB Maurice Canady, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, WR E.J. Scott, DT Brent Urban, S Wil Wahee

DOUBTFUL - WR Kyle Dockins

QUESTIONABLE - G Conner Davis, K Ian Frye, TE Jake McGee

PROBABLE - LB Daquan Romero

Georgia Tech:

OUT - WR Anthony Autry, OL Morgan Bailey, OL Ray Beno, C Freddie Burden, S Jamal Golden, DT Shawn Green, LB Anthony Harrell, OL Errin Joe

DOUBTFUL - None

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - None

Yeah, Paul Johnson, I bet you have nobody banged up in the slightest aside from the guys who'll miss the game.  Not a single tweaked ankle, twinged shoulder, or sore knee.  Somebody is not conforming to the intent of the ACC injury report.  Meantime, that is the worst UVA injury report I've ever seen.

It all just makes a tough game tougher.  Georgia Tech is always a difficult matchup if your defense isn't well-prepared, and last week is proof they can demolish lousy teams - as if last year's game in Atlanta wasn't proof enough.  The road doesn't get any easier after last week, and with the losses piling up it's fair to wonder if this team will find another win all season.

-- UVA run offense vs. GT run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 131 carries, 560 yards, 4.3 ypc, 8 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 32 carries, 233 yards, 7.3 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
176.14 yards/game, 4.03 yards/attempt
82nd of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

GT offense:
124.00 yards/game, 3.98 yards/attempt
57th of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

Conner Davis's presence on the injury report is a disturbing sign for the offense; it was his absence in the first place that triggered a lot of the offensive line troubles.  Cody Wallace is listed as Davis's backup with Eric Tetlow behind Jay Whitmire on the other side, but keep an eye on this.  Wallace was pulled for Tetlow against Pitt, and Tetlow could get the call.  The offense would probably run better if so.

Georgia Tech's defense has been somewhat like a chameleon, matching their play to the level of opposition.  If the opponent is good, they've gashed the Jackets.  If the opponent is lousy, they get shut down.  Duke Johnson and Miami absolutely destroyed them; on the other hand, Virginia Tech's running game didn't exist except for what Logan Thomas did.  Which wasn't much.

The Jackets just don't get into the backfield much.  Nose tackle Adam Gotsis is a nasty customer in this regard with six run-game TFLs this season, but otherwise nobody else has very many, and GT is 110th in the country in TFL.  That said, a nasty defensive tackle was all it took for Pitt to destroy UVA's offense, and three-tech tackle Euclid Cummings is good enough that over-doubling Gotsis will probably cost the Hoos.

GT's linebackers can be tough too; there is no particular holy terror but no weak link either, with all three starters - Brandon Watts, Jabari Hunt-Days, and Quayshawn Nealy - all in the team's top four in tackles.

If Davis does play, he'll probably be limited, so I can't express a lot of hope for the line either way.  UVA isn't going to find itself totally shut down, but shouldn't expect to move the ball as easily as they did in the first half against Duke, either.  The best chance: Watford.  GT has shown a tendency to allow yards by a running quarterback, as both Logan Thomas and BYU's Taysom Hill were able to move the ball this way.  Watford doesn't keep much on the read option, though.  I was brimming with optimism for the run game last week against Duke; their failure to come through combined with injury troubles at guard and another tough DT gives me much less faith, and I can't figure the run game for more than 125 yards or so.

-- UVA pass offense vs. GT pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 148/253, 58.5%; 1,339 yards, 5 TDs, 8 INTs; 5.29 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 31 rec., 265 yards, 2 TDs
Kevin Parks: 25 rec., 270 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
197.6 yards/game, 5.1 yards/attempt
122nd of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

GT defense:
203.7 yards/game, 7.3 yards/attempt
75th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Bad news, everyone.  We're no longer last in the country in passing!  Wonder if it'll matter this week; we've known for a couple weeks now that Jake McGee is banged up even though he didn't show up on the injury report against Duke.  The Maryland game made it clear enough.  Now listed as questionable, McGee's status is firmly up in the air.  I would guess he plays, but we'll see.  No McGee would mean a big, big role for Zach Swanson, and, no disrespect to Swanson, but a pretty big detriment to the passing game.

It won't have much effect on the stat sheet, but Kyle Dockins looks very likely to miss the game given his injury report status.  Dockins isn't targeted much, but his absence means the coaches will have to dig deeper into the underperforming-veterans well and give more playing time to Tim Smith or Darius Jennings.  Any more drops by Jennings and he's going to end up the fanbase's least favorite player; his chronic case of stone hands this season has been one of the year's most frustrating developments.

Defensively, Tech brings a solid pass rush from Adam Gotsis and defensive end Jeremiah Attaochu, though Attaochu's production on the year is decidedly down from what it was.  They present a tough matchup in that their linebackers, Quayshawn Nealy in particular, are good pass defenders.  Nealy plays the weak side, though, so won't likely be matched up with McGee much.  Brandon Watts on the strong side is less skilled in pass defense, so McGee (or Swanson) should be able to find room.  Cornerback Louis Young is the top player in the secondary, and given our receivers' inability to get open, should be a blanket all day.

I think it's fair to upgrade our assessment of our passing game a tick - but only a tick, as Watford is still far too inconsistent and the receivers haven't shown any indication of upgrading their game.  If they didn't do it against Duke, I have no idea when they ever will.  GT isn't overall a great pass-defense team - the rush is OK, and Young is the only playmaker among the starters in the secondary, though backup safety Chris Milton also has two picks.  Logan Thomas, he of the scattershot arm, had a really nice day passing against the Jackets.  Tech might present some matchup problems with linebackers who can defend the pass (Nealy may be a problem in trying to get the ball to Kevin Parks) and a pass-rushing DT, but Watford should continue to nudge his trend upwards, even if only slightly.

-- GT run offense against UVA run defense

Top backs:
David Sims: 84 carries, 409 yards, 4.9 ypc, 6 TDs
Zach Laskey: 45 carries, 261 yards, 5.8 ypc, 4 TDs

GT offense:
304.43 yards/game, 5.27 yards/attempt
19th of 125 (national), 3rd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
151.71 yards/game, 3.98 yards/attempt
56th of 125 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Each week I've sort of taken to naming which of the four sections of the game should provide the decisive factor.  This week it's here, because against GT it's always here.  You know the drill about what they do.

Unfortunately, defending it is going to be a son of a bitch this week.  We don't have our best DT, so we'll have a tough time holding the middle against the fullback dive part of the option.  We're short on options at DE because our run-stopping DE is playing DT (and is a little overmatched there due to size.)  Two very solid run-stopping tacklers at CB are out.  We do have some high-quality linebackers whose strengths just happen to include play diagnosis - but only two.

Adding to the complication is what Jon Tenuta will do.  Remember, Tenuta, despite his past tenure at GT, didn't coach there under the current regime, and so doesn't have any special insight.  If I had a time machine I'd go back and watch old NC State-GT games (despite the crossover, Tenuta did coach against the Jackets twice while at NC State) to see what his philosophy was.  It didn't work out especially well; Tenuta's defense gave up 28 and 35 points, while the Pack split the crossover series in 2010 and 2011.

If he decides to be Mr. Aggressive as usual, that could pay wicked dividends at times and get him burned super-crispy at others.  Blitzing Coley up the middle could help dissuade fullback dives, and sending an OLB or a CB from one side could either flood the area with defenders (good) or leave huge running lanes (bad.)  Tech isn't real big on throwing over the middle, so having Anthony Harris filling the middle while Coley finds a gap to get through could be a helpful strategy, especially since the depth at DT is hurting.

Tenuta's going to have to wizard his way through this one, though, and ultimately, GT has a major upper hand here.  With so many key personnel out, UVA will be depending on a patchwork of less-experienced players.  I think GT will have a ton of success up the middle.  I fully expect to get gashed there.  If the Hoos can force Vad Lee to keep - he's only averaging three yards a carry - they'll be in better shape, but I don't think they can do that consistently.

-- GT pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Vad Lee: 44/99, 44.4%; 846 yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs; 8.55 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
DeAndre Smelter: 14 rec., 211 yards, 2 TDs
Robert Godhigh: 10 rec., 188 yards, 2 TDs

GT offense:
125.6 yards/game, 7.9 yards/attempt
42nd of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
225.9 yards/game, 6.4 yards/attempt
33rd of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

You have to give Paul Johnson this: He's incredibly consistent in his pass-offense playcalling.  In his first four years as GT coach, his teams attempted 165, 168, 168, and 167 passes.  Last year they went all pass-wacky with 194, but this season, Vad Lee is on pace for 170 attempts.  Consistency.

I bring up this factoid just because there's very little to talk about in defending GT's passing game.  All it takes is a solid cornerback and some discipline at free safety.  (That would be really cool if we had Demetrious Nicholson, or even Maurice Canady.)  If you have those two things, GT will not be able to throw the ball against you, because they like to wait until you're overplaying the run.

Then again, we might be forced to overplay the run if the assigned defenders can't stop it.  Plus, this season, GT is actually spreading the ball between WRs a little more than they used to, when in the past they would have one big dude making all the plays and the second WR would just be a very fast, very widely split offensive tackle.  And then some occasional throws to the RBs.  This year, DeAndre Smelter has 14 catches, but Darren Waller has 10.  Both are very, very tall in the usual Paul Johnson mold; Smelter is 6'3" and Waller 6'5".  Ordinarily this would not be a bad game to break in Tim Harris in his first game as a starter, but Harris may be tested a few times, particularly given his inexperience.

Lee, however, has not been the more-accurate passer he was advertised to be, connecting on only 44% of his passes.  And UVA has, with just a few ugly exceptions, defended the pass rather well.  If GT beats us, it won't be through the air.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 3.5
UVA pass offense: 4
UVA run defense: 1.5
UVA pass defense: 6

Average: 3.75

That said, it'd really be fairer if I half-weighted the pass defense and double-weighted the run defense.

-- Outlook

Here's the recipe for beating Georgia Tech's offense.  You need:

-- a really good defensive tackle that can command a double team and even slash into the backfield, to discourage the fullback dive part of the option
-- defensive ends that are both disciplined and able to hold the edge against a blocker
-- a cornerback that sticks like glue
-- a free safety you trust implicitly
-- linebackers who can fill gaps ASAP and move side-to-side with ease.

We have one out of five.  We would have four out of five if not for injuries.  This is not a good omen.

-- Prediction summary

-- The UVA running game fails to top 125 yards.

-- David Watford again tops 6 yards a pass.  Progress.  Baby steps.

-- Both David Sims and Zach Laskey have 100+ yard rushing days.

-- No GT receiver has a catch of 30 yards or more, unless it's mostly YAC.  (This represents success in one realm of the matchup, at least.)

Final score: GT 35, UVA 17

-- Rest of the ACC

Wake Forest @ Miami - 12:00 - A likely rout, but then, that's what I thought Maryland would do to the Deacs last week.

Pittsburgh @ Navy - 1:00 - I labeled Pitt the worst team in the Coastal and they're two wins from eligibility; probably one win after this week.

NC State @ Florida State - 3:30 - The Pack have occasionally had the magic touch against FSU, but not this year.

Clemson @ Maryland - 3:30 - The Terps will have other chances at bowl eligibility, but it won't be this week, and being rolled for the second week in a row - not to mention losing their whole receiving corps to injury - could send them into a death spiral.

Boston College @ North Carolina - 3:30 - I picked BC to go to a bowl this year when nobody else would, and even I didn't figure they'd be the only team in this matchup with a conference win.

Duke @ Virginia Tech - 3:30 - Semi-unstoppable force meets immovable object when Duke has the ball.  Wet noodle meets half-eaten jelly roll otherwise.

Bye: Syracuse, busy licking their GT-induced wounds.

game preview: Maryland

Date/Time: Saturday, October 13; 3:30

TV: ESPNUVA

Record against the Terps: 32-43-2

Last meeting: Md. 27, UVA 20; 10/13/12, Charlottesville

Last weekend: BSU 48, UVA 27; FSU 63, Md 0

Line: Maryland by 7

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT - OL George Adeosun, PK Ian Frye, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, OT Sadiq Olanrewaju, S Wil Wahee

DOUBTFUL - None

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - TE Zach Swanson

Maryland:

OUT - DB Milan Collins, OL JaJuan Dulaney, CB Dexter McDougle, DL Mike Minter, DL Ty Tucker, WR Tyrek Cheeseboro, RB Tyler Cierski, K Adam Greene, DB Jeremiah Johnson, OL Nick Klemm, LB Matt Robinson

DOUBTFUL - QB C.J. Brown

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - WR Daniel Adams, OL Silvio Altamirano, LB Cole Farrand, WR Nigel King, TE Dave Stinebaugh, DL Zeke Riser

I'm a little torn, but strongly leaning toward the idea that we should close down relations forever with Maryland once their time in the ACC is done.  Depends on the sport, really; lacrosse, definitely.  Basketball, probably, and replace them with Georgetown.  Football, I suppose, is a little less clear, but then, the schedule's tied up for a good long time anyway.  So this'll be our last shot for the foreseeable future at what was a very fun rivalry when Ralph Friedgen would flap his fat gums and we would beat his teams in response.

-- UVA run offense vs. Md. run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 88 carries, 398 yards, 4.5 ypc, 5 TDs
Daniel Hamm: 23 carries, 141 yards, 6.1 ypc, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
178.20 yards/game, 4.09 yards/attempt
80th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Md. defense:
115.40 yards/game, 3.21 yards/attempt
25th of 125 (national), 3rd of 14 (ACC)

It seems like a safe but tentative bet so far that in the season-long who's-after-Parks watch, Khalek Shepherd is slowly but surely emerging as the primary backup.  Neither he nor Taquan Mizzell show up on the injury report this week, so we finally have the health we need to see the decision through.

The other name not on the injury report: Conner Davis.  Mike London has hinted this means another change in the order of battle for the offensive line; despite what the depth chart says, it appears Davis will take Luke Bowanko's left guard spot and move Bowanko back to center.  Bowanko is still a better guard than center, but I guess the real idea is that Davis is a better guard than Ross Burbank or Jackson Matteo are centers.  Last week's lineup shuffle looked good against a bad run defense; Maryland presents a tougher challenge.

Mitigating that will be Maryland's loss of disruptive OLB Matt Robinson.  Robinson is one of the defense's leading players and a member of one of the best linebacking corps in the league.  Inside backers Cole Farrand and L.A. Goree ought to be able to cover up for him to an extent, but Maryland loses something on the edge without Robinson.  Marcus Whitfield, on the other side of the Terps' 3-4, is more of a pass rusher.  Of course, last time I said there might be a weakness on the edge, attack the edge, Steve Fairchild kept attacking the middle.  So we'll see.

The 3-4 is just another challenge for our O-line, too, which hasn't been allowed to see many conventional defenses this year.  Maryland's line has been solid, and nose tackle Darius Kilgo is a load, so the O-line is simply going to be tested all day, and the threat will be more versatile than just watching Aaron Donald tear into the backfield all day.

It may be that Davis's return is another small boost to the line.  Changing from Wallace and Whitmire to Whitmire and Smith certainly was one, and you have to like getting a starter back.  But one good day against Ball State doesn't change my mind about the offense.  Even without Matt Robinson, Maryland is well-equipped to slow down and even stop the UVA run game.  Then you add in the fact that the read-option is designed against a 4-3 defense, and I definitely don't see strong results in this area of the game.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Md. pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 101/171, 59.1%; 813 yards, 3 TDs, 7 INTs; 4.75 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 19 rec., 119 yards, 1 TD
Darius Jennings: 14 rec., 107 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
171.4 yards/game, 4.6 yards/attempt
125th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Md. defense:
218.4 yards/game, 6.5 yards/attempt
43rd of 125 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

Another injury has sapped quite a bit of the effectiveness out of the Maryland pass defense: the loss of Dexter McDougle for the season.  The main consequence of that was the loss of most of their big-play capability; McDougle had three picks in as many games.  Isaac Goins is a solid cornerback, but McDougle's replacement, freshman William Likely, is 5'7", and, you know, a freshman.

The Maryland pass rush can be nasty.  The aforementioned Marcus Whitfield has 5.5 sacks, and his backup, Yannik Cudjoe-Virgil, has three.  Maryland's nose tackle position, between Darius Kilgo and Andre Monroe, has combined for 5.5 sacks, and the team total is 18, which ties them for 5th in the country.

So the O-line is in for another test.  Given the pass rush the Terps can generate from the middle of the line, having Bowanko at center is a little bit of a relief.  The playing-time intention at wide receiver, though, is still a mystery, even with the "ors" taken off the depth chart.  I guess there's just a skepticism factor that the starters are suddenly Kyle Dockins, Keeon Johnson, and Miles Gooch.  Johnson I believe given the role he played against Ball State, and that lineup of guys could provide an advantage given the lack of size Maryland has at corner.  Finding it hard to believe they're fully relegating guys like Tim Smith and Darius Jennings to the bench, though.

I do think our receivers provide an advantage over the Maryland defensive backfield, where the Terps are middling-decent but did present no threat whatsoever to the FSU passing game.  (By contrast, FSU's run game was successful but not spectacularly so.)  However, Watford's still learning, and slowly.  I'm gonna have to see something before I give the whole unit the benefit of the doubt.  At some point Watford's gonna have a great game and prove me wrong, but I don't plan on saying "this weekend is it" all year til I get it right.

-- Md. run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Brandon Ross: 68 carries, 331 yards, 4.8 ypc, 2 TDs
Albert Reid: 29 carries, 120 yards, 4.1 ypc, 1 TD

Md. offense:
188.0 yards/game, 4.65 yards/attempt
53rd of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
149.2 yards/game, 3.87 yards/attempt
50th of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

Like the offense in reverse, I'm gonna have to see more than one bad game out of the defense (Oregon doesn't count) before I decide it sucks.  I don't think that'll be in this phase of the game, at least.  The likely loss of C.J. Brown makes the Maryland run attack fairly one-dimensional.  Decent opponents have shut down Brandon Ross's backup, Albert Reid, which by subtraction leaves Ross as the only real rushing threat.  (Other backup Jacquille Veii, with almost as many carries as Reid, has been a garbage-timer so far.)

Ross can move the ball, but is no threat to break one open, and is a little bit stat-padded by a big game against ODU.  Florida International shut him down and FSU made him disappear entirely; he's just not a game-breaker, and Maryland's patchily young offensive line is still learning its way around consistent run-blocking.

So this is a very important phase of the game for UVA.  The Maryland pass offense can be dangerous, and UVA simply must force them to have to rely solely on it to move the ball.  If the run game can be stifled with just the regular up-front personnel, maybe even with six in the box, it'll make this game so much easier.  Long day otherwise.

-- Md. pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
C.J. Brown: 72/113, 63.7%; 1,125 yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT; 9.96 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Deon Long: 24 rec., 348 yards, 1 TD
Stefon Diggs: 20 rec., 424 yards, 3 TDs

Md. offense:
257.6 yards/game, 9.3 yards/attempt
10th of 125 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
191.4 yards/game, 5.6 yards/attempt
10th of 125 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

It's great to have such nice numbers on our side, even with such nice ones on the Maryland side too, but here's where the injury bug takes a chunk out of our defense, with Demetrious Nicholson out for the game.  This is not the time for that, as UVA goes up against a dynamic duo at receiver for the third time in a row, and probably the best of the three in Stefon Diggs and Deon Long.

Diggs is also dealing with a malady of his own, which could slow him down and even up the matchup; Randy Edsall has been referring to him as not 100% and he hasn't been taking return duties.  He's been limited the past two weeks to two catches each.  Long has stepped forward somewhat.  Still, you have to game plan for him.  You're not going to worry about Levern Jacobs or Malcolm Culmer.  You might watch Nigel King, who stands 6'3" and for that reason alone can be a tough cover, but Diggs and Long are what make the Maryland offense move.

The above assumes C.J. Brown can play, but he's listed as doubtful - so he probably won't.  We're in much better shape if he doesn't.  Backup Caleb Rowe is not incapable but not close to the player Brown is, either.  The combination of losing Brown and having Diggs limited could be a major crippling factor for the Maryland offense, and without Nicholson we'll take all the help we can get.

-- Favorability ratings:

Run offense: 3
Pass offense: 3.5
Run defense: 7.5
Pass defense: 3 if Brown plays and Diggs is playable, and 6.5 otherwise

Average: 4.25 or 5.125

-- Outlook

You can see the effect on the game of Brown's injury.  Take him out of there and I can see UVA having the slimmest of advantages.  Put him in and the game swings Maryland's way.  Maryland's run game is much more dangerous with Brown (Rowe is not a runner) and Brown is easily the better passer too.   UVA must, must must must shut down the run game to the greatest extent possible, and do so nice and early, so that they'll be able to focus on stopping the pass.  If they can do that, that's their chance.  Moving the ball will be tough and opportunities to do so limited, so there'll be plenty of pressure on the defense to keep the game within striking distance.

-- Prediction summary

-- Watford throws neither a pick nor a touchdown.

-- Neither run game musters more than three yards per attempt.

-- Keeon Johnson leads UVA wide receivers in receptions.

-- Stefon Diggs has had two catches each of the past two games; he has more here.

Final score: Md. 17, UVA 13

-- Rest of the ACC

Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech - 12:00 - Tech will be remembering the embarrassing beatdown they received from the Panthers last year.

Duke vs. Navy - 12:30 - Duke bowl eligibility hopes probably demand this win.

Syracuse @ NC State - 3:30 - As do the bowl hopes of both these teams, slim as they are.

Boston College @ Clemson - 3:30 - Clemson's tuneup before the big game next week.

Georgia Tech @ Brigham Young - 7:00 - Should be a useful game in learning how we stand.

Byes: Miami, Florida State, Wake Forest, UNC

camp questions

It's here.  Yay?  The first day of fall camp.  If you like you can call it the first day of football season.  Personally I wait until Monday of the first game week for that, because that's when I get this machine moving into its football rhythm, but today is just fine too if it suits you.

I do not write a full-blown preview of the season until I see how camp went, because stuff always changes.  Always.  But I do whet your appetite just a little every year with what I think are the questions that we need to answer by the end of August.  Something a little more specific than just "what are the freshmen going to look like?"  That is what we'll do today.  These are the issues I think are most important for this year's practices.

1. Will Mike London keep his promise to pick a quarterback and stick with him?

You'll note that the QB thing is most emphatically not "Lambert or Watford?"  It doesn't matter.  It's a different question than last year entirely.  When the choice was between Rocco and Sims, it was a question of experience and stability vs. dazzling potential.  It mattered a bit more.  This year it doesn't.  Watford has played a little, but his limited run in 2011 isn't very informative and so much has happened since then that it wouldn't be fair to base any judgments on it.  Both are close to equally inexperienced.

So no, I don't think it matters whether the coaches choose Watford or Lambert, and anyway it looks like the answer is leaning toward Watford.  Really, I have minimal patience for people who pick one (especially when the candidates have been on the field so little) and root for that one to win and then get all pissy on message boards when their choice disagrees with the coaches.  It smacks of individual over team, it starts unnecessary fights, and its arrogant to think you're that much smarter than the coaches when you don't get to see anything of practice, the film room, or the weight room.  So the real question is: Are we going to have to put up with the wishy-washy stuff again?  After two years of platoonery, it's clear that it doesn't work and probably stunts the growth of both QBs involved.  There's a reason very smart coaches have said that if you have two quarterbacks, you don't have any.  1 + 1 = 1/2.  If just one quarterback takes all the starters snaps this season, it'll produce benefits both this year and in future years.  If not, we'll probably look back at the London era and decide that the reason it was shorter than the Groh era was because he couldn't ever make up his mind about quarterbacks.

2. How will we deal with the Sean Cascarano situation?

Cascarano's hip is more and more sounding like a medical scholarship waiting to happen.  At the very least he's not ready for the start of camp, and at this point, it's a bonus if he can play at all.  Tough situation for the team to lose an experienced senior who's capable of playing both tackle and guard.  Cascarano probably would've lined up at RG, so for starters, the coaches need to decide who takes his place (Conner Davis would be the leading candidate) and then, who steps up to the two-deep.  Might Ross Burbank see some action at guard as well as being the backup center?  (Currently, Jackson Matteo is listed as the starter.)  Ryan Doull is listed as the backup LG and Sean Karl the third-string RG.  That's getting into redshirt freshman territory.

The line is otherwise fairly set.  Jackson Matteo enters camp as the starting center, and that's the only other place where it looks like a change is possible (though not wildly likely), barring further injury.  Morgan Moses and Jay Whitmire look pretty set as the tackles, and Luke Bowanko will have a starting role regardless of where he plays - which is LG at the moment.

3. How much playing time will Taquan Mizzell get?

Kevin Parks is probably going to get carries regardless.  Khalek Shepherd keeps getting talked up, and we barely know a thing about Kye Morgan, who redshirted last year.  (And just as a wild card, LaChaston Smith starts off the fall listed as a running back.  Not terribly surprising, since Smith talked about wanting a shot there, and the depth chart is a little thin at tailback.  But I think ultimately, Smith lands back on defense.)

Most of this won't matter if Mizzell is all that's been advertised.  Parks is a fixture, but Shepherd and Morgan probably won't get in the way if Smoke is Smoke.  Mizzell is said to be an outstanding pass-catcher in addition to all his physical talents as a ballcarrier, which only adds to the likelihood of seeing him on the field.  How big will his role be?  We'll probably know by the end of camp whether he'll see starters carries or not.

4. Can Jake McGee round out his game?

McGee got a few votes for the preseason all-ACC team because he's one hell of a pass-catching weapon, as demonstrated last year.  But as a blocker he's not there yet, or at least, wasn't last year.  He's up 15 pounds from last season, a good sign in that regard as long as it doesn't detract from his fluidity downfield.  If he can really mature into being a true all-around tight end that can road-grade linebackers in the running game, protect against blitzers in pass-blocking, and go downfield as a receiver, he's got the chops to be first-team in the conference at some point.

5. What does the two-deep look like at defensive tackle?

Losing Justin Renfrow was a nasty hit to the depth there.  You've got David Dean and Brent Urban as the starters; that's a good foundation.  DT generally requires three really good options for a rotation, though, or the starters will wear down.  Can Marco Jones be ready?  (He might be needed more at DE, too.)  The rest is freshmen.  Andre Miles-Redmond is coming off a redshirt year, and there's true freshmen Tyrell Chavis (after FUMA-shirting) and Donta Wilkins.  Any or all of them might have to show up on the field at some point, but fall camp will be crucial in establishing a pecking order there.

6. Who wins the placekicking battle?

Ian Frye and Dylan Sims are the main candidates.  Let's hope at least one of them can kick well enough that by October, watching the kicker trot onto the field isn't a reason to have a nervous breakdown.

Obviously, there are all sorts of other things to be worked on.  It'll be interesting to see how the schemes of Jon Tenuta and Steve Fairchild develop.  Same goes for the special teams expertise of Larry Lewis, and Tom O'Brien's contributions to game management, but these won't really be noticed until game time.  And yeah, I do kinda want to see what the freshmen will look like, both the true and the redshirted variety.  All this in just four short weeks; it'll be game time any minute now.

the recruit: Steven Moss

Name: Steven Moss
Position: OG
Hometown: Fredericksburg
School: Chancellor
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 275

24/7: 91, four stars; #14 OG, VA #8, US #215
ESPN: 80, four stars; #18 OG, VA #13, Atl. #44
Rivals: 5.9, four stars; #6 OG, VA #7, US #100
Scout: four stars; #9 OT

Other offers: Oklahoma, Florida State, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Penn State, Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, Clemson, Auburn, West Virginia, Miami, NC State, Illinois, Maryland, Syracuse, Boston College, Connecticut, Wake Forest

UVA's class of 2014 seems to be shaping up as a mix between the very heavily and very lightly recruited.  Quin Blanding was the first to hop aboard; the next was Steven Moss, not much less-recruiting than Blanding.  Few things make me happier in a recruiting class than a stockpile of top offensive linemen.  With occasional exceptions, Al Groh's OL recruiting at its best was characterized by one major star and then a few fill-ins around that.

Mike London has done a better job stockpiling depth; even so, Moss is the highest-ranked OL he's pulled in so far.  Moss had offers from such luminaries as FSU, Oklahoma, and a myriad of SEC schools, but he was already halfway into UVA's pocket by the time the 2013 class put ink to paper.  Like Blanding, it didn't take him long to make things semi-official and shut down his recruiting.

What makes Moss's ratings so interesting is that he's being rated as a guard.  Obviously, as you can see above, he's not the #1 guard in the country by any stretch, but still: ratings that high are usually found in tackles, not guards.  Moss projects rather heavily as an interior lineman.  He's powerfully built and multiple websites - ESPN and Scout, particularly - praise his strength and mean streak.  The positives listed on Scout's profile are "aggressiveness," "drive blocking," and "nasty streak," which are all pretty much related to each other.

His footwork and athleticism come in for some scrutiny.  24/7 says he's "athletic enough to play right tackle in college," which can be read as code for "but not left tackle," and then they go on to say he'd be a better guard.  And while there have been assessments that say good things about his footwork and movement, he also went to Rivals' camp in Chicago, and, to hear folks there tell it, got owned.  The drills at these camps are generally tailored toward OT-type skills, and Moss didn't really hang with the elite pass-rushers there.  Lateral quickness was said to be an issue. (That said, we're really talking elite here.  The Andrew Browns of the world and such.  That the best of the best beat Moss in a few drills doesn't make him a sudden two-star.)

Moss's size also leans him toward guard.  While he's listed at 6'5", usually, there are also places that say 6'4", which is to say he's probably on the shorter end.  Which is another check in the OG box.  275 pounds is running a little light as well, but I'm actually pretty encouraged by that.  If scouts are saying such awe-inspired things about his strength and power and he's sitting there about 20 pounds lighter than your average college lineman, that can only mean good things when he puts the weight on.

So let's say, what with his size, straight-line power, and questions about his footwork and quickness that ESPN has raised and the Rivals camp seemed to confirm, that Moss is a near-lock for offensive guard.  The post-spring depth chart lists two seniors at guard; the top backups are junior Conner Davis and redshirt freshman Ryan Doull.  Davis will graduate after Moss's freshman year, which presumably will be a redshirt year as there's sufficient depth (Sean Karl is listed at guard, and I would figure, for now, on Jack McDonald and Eric Tetlow starting out at guard too) to let it happen.  Moss, though, could prove to be very tough compeition for that gang.  By 2015, when Moss is (probably) a redshirt freshman, I'm not sure there'll be anyone on the roster so experienced that Moss can't overtake them, if by then he's been living up to his recruiting credentials.

************************************************

A couple things need pointing out:

-- Mike Tobey deserves at least a golf clap for making the Team USA U-19 roster for this summer's U-19 world championship.  Did the fact that Tony Bennett is an assistant coach for that team have any hand in that?  Maayyyybe.  It could have.  Some might certainly suggest it.  He's not the guy with final authority, though.

-- This just in from the And They Call Us France Department: Virginia Tech perfume.  The jokes, they write themselves.

-- Andrew Brown is going to announce his college choice on June 29.  All signs point to good news.

the recruit: Jack McDonald

Name: Jack McDonald
Position: OG
Hometown: Dorchester, MA
School: Boston College High
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 275

24/7: 85, three stars; #35 OG, MA #5
ESPN: 76, three stars; #60 OG, MA #4, Atl. #122
Rivals: 5.6, three stars; #40 OG, MA #4
Scout: three stars; #48 OT

Other offers: North Carolina, Boston College, Miami, Maryland, UConn, Duke, UMass

Donta Wilkins and Kirk Garner committed at the beginning of one of the better weekends (we are defining "weekend" fairly loosely here) in UVA recruiting history; on the other end of it, Mike London nailed down the offensive line portion of it.  Jack McDonald actually spent that weekend in Chapel Hill, and loved it so much he committed to UVA on Monday.

McDonald is one part of a troika of Massachusetts prospects that UVA pursued heavily.  One, Maurice Hurst, is one of the closer near-misses we've had in a while, and is one of the reasons I never wanted to see UVA in the Big Ten: Michigan crushes us head-to-head.  If you believe in miracles, there's a chance Hurst could still flip to UVA, but Michigan is 5-2 and UVA is 2-6 so don't get too excited.  The other is Tevin Montgomery, still deciding between UVA, Vanderbilt, and BC.  If McDonald had his way all three would head to UVA; they go to different schools but are very tight.  They're also 2-3-4 in the state of Massachusetts according to recruiting consensus, usually ordered Hurst, Montgomery, McDonald.

The fact that McDonald is actually the lowest-rated lineman in the class is a testament to the quality we've got, since literally half the ACC wanted him.  Looking at his highlight tape (something I frequently do for these but rarely use, since the tapes are designed to make everyone look like all-world players) I see a guy who doesn't have an overpowering initial push out of his stance but locks on strong and slowly grinds his assignment into the dust.  McDonald plays right tackle for his high school team (at least, he did as a junior) which is a small, tiny strike against his pass-blocking since the best O-line prospects typically play left tackle the way the best baseball prospects play shortstop.  Whether he's moved to left tackle in his senior year, I couldn't tell you.

In college he's a guy who could play either tackle or guard, but with a lean toward guard as we're probably going to be deep enough at tackle.  He's got the height for tackle at 6'5", but he's closer to 6'4" than 6'6" so he's really just barely in range.  At 275 pounds he's got some major growing to do, which makes him a rock-solid lock for a redshirt year.  Another point in favor of guard: he gets up the field very well, with a basketball background that gives him some running ability.  A guard often needs to be able to get a quick hat on a lineman, then release to a linebacker, or else, of course, pull to the other side and club whoever is in the hole where the running back is supposed to go.  McDonald looks well-equipped to handle that.

As mentioned, the redshirt year is a guarantee.  UVA is currently using a combination of Sean Cascarano, Conner Davis, and Cody Wallace at guard.  It hasn't been an especially inspiring group, but it's going through a painful growth process and is hopefully gelling as it goes.  All three will still be around next year, and then Cascarano graduates as McDonald enters his redshirt freshman year in 2014.  As it stands now Ryan Doull is the next up on the conveyor belt, and McDonald, assuming he does end up at guard, will fall in line behind him.  I do expect extra competition coming from behind; guard is not a deep group and the coaches will be looking to make it deeper, and one example there is 2014 O-line prospect Steven Moss, who is very much a future college guard.  Assuming he develops as he should, though, there's little reason McDonald shouldn't be a regular in the rotation - if not a starter - by his third year in the program.

game preview: TCU

Date/Time: Saturday, September 22; 12:00

TV: ESPN

Record against the Frogs: 1-1

Last meeting: TCU 30, UVA 14; 9/12/09; Charlottesville

Last weekend: GT 56, UVA 20; TCU 20, Kansas 6

Line: TCU by 19.5

Opposing blog: Frogs O' War

Nice Froggies, nice Froggies.  UVA's stretch of doom comes to an end after this weekend in Texas, where the Hoos will have all they can handle from 17th-ranked TCU.  This is the best team we've played so far, which is a depressing thought when you lost to the not-best team by five touchdowns.  A win here would be a big step for UVA's obvious recruiting aspirations in Texas, but...yeah.  They're ranked 17th.

It's a little bit weird that we set up a home-and-home three years apart, but there you go.  How long ago was that game?  James Johnson committed to UVA hoops the week after, which means his entire association with UVA came in between TCU games.  TCU was in the Mountain West, and their entire association with the Big East came in between UVA games.  We were running the Gregg Brandon spread (badly) and as a result the last meeting with these guys was one of the dreariest experiences of my life.  Jameel Sewell was still the quarterback.    Both teams are better now than they were then, but that's not saying much on our part, and TCU is legit.

-- UVA run offense vs. TCU run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 36 carries, 128 yards, 3.6 avg, 2 TDs
Perry Jones: 27 carries, 81 yards, 3.0 avg., 1 TD

UVA offense:
104.7 yards/game, 3.31 yards/attempt
101st of 124 (national), 8th of 12 (ACC)

TCU defense:
60.5 yards/game, 2.05 yards/attempt
9th of 124 (national), 1st of 10 (B12)

Again with it being still early, you can't read a whole lot into the above numbers, at least as far as TCU is concerned.  Half of that is from letting Grambling do nothing.  TCU's run defense probably isn't quite that good.

Then again, "not that good" is still "good enough" when it comes to stopping the UVA attack (and I use that word liberally.)  Mike London and Bill Lazor have both openly expressed frustration with the play of the interior line and their ability to open holes.  Conner Davis pretty much isn't ready for the starting job, but Cody Wallace is hurt and Davis is the only option unless you scoot Morgan Moses inside and start a redshirt freshman (Jay Whitmire) at tackle.

For TCU's part, they had a somewhat rocky offseason, losing some potential starters in the front six (TCU runs a 4-2-5 defense similar to Duke's) when it turned out a few of them were doubling as street pharmacists.  Their linebackers and rover safety, however, do a good job filling the run lanes.  LB Joel Hasley is leading the team so far with 17 tackles in the first two games, and the positions of the top four tacklers are LB, rover safety, LB, backup LB.  Besides Hasley, LB Kenny Cain and backup LB Paul Dawson have been leading the charge so far, and safety Jonathan Anderson has been a very promising player as well so far in his career.

In the past, Lazor has done a good job using playcalling to cover up personnel weaknesses.  He did a good job in his first year here setting Marc Verica up for success.  Attacking the TCU defense will probably involve the outside.  The TCU DEs are fairly undersized.  Senior leader Ross Forrest is out for the year, so the Frogs turned to freshman Devonte Fields.  Fields has done well getting into the backfield but can also be pushed off the line.  On the other side, Stansly Maponga hasn't yet been a major factor, though he earned a bunch of preseason accolades.  If TCU gets the production they expect from Maponga, he could close off the lanes on his side, but he's been quiet so far.

If Lazor and Mike Rocco are able to establish the pass, UVA should then be able to find some success with draws and traps.  And in any case, you'll probably see an emphasis on running to the edge in order to try and take advantage of potential mismatches, and get the linebackers moving side to side.  Simply butting our heads against the middle is not likely to work; our line isn't likely to be able to get any push and the TCU linebackers are too good at this for us to consistently have any success that way.

Kansas is not a great team, but they were able to eke out a respectable 4.1 yards a carry on the ground against TCU.  Can the Hoos reach that level?  Until they prove it, no.  There will probably be the occasional flirtation with success, but not sustainably.  TCU has a solid history of stopping the run, so they get the benefit of any doubt.  Besides, the way TCU moves the ball through the air we might be forced to give up on the run before the game is over.

-- UVA pass offense vs. TCU pass defense

Quarterback:
Mike Rocco: 61/95, 64.2%; 712 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs; 7.5 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 13 rec., 172 yards, 1 TD
Kevin Parks: 10 rec., 80 yards, 0 TD

UVA offense:
274.3 yards/game, 7.3 yards/attempt
64th of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)

TCU defense:
164.5 yards/game, 6.2 yards/attempt
43rd of 124 (national), 5th of 10 (B12)

If we want to win the game, this is where it has to happen.  You can try and control the ball by running it (and we certainly have to limit the time Casey Pachall has to work with) but the way things have been, that's a great way to go three-and-out and not control the ball at all.

No, I expect Bill Lazor will put on his creative hat and try all sorts of passes.  Rocco will be given a lot of work this week, in the passing-as-ersatz-running-game department.  TCU has a respectable secondary, and they get a good pass rush, but that's not really in the calculation this week.  If they had the Philadelphia Eagles' secondary we'd still be passing, because that's the kind of game this is going to be.

A word about that pass rush - it's solid, and the 4-2-5 allows you to try some interesting blitzy stuff.  Joel Hasley has two sacks coming in on the blitz, another point of pressure on the interior line.  The aforementioned undersized defensive ends are that way because they can generate a good speed rush.  Fortunately, we have the ability to use the TCU aggressiveness against them.  The running backs and tight ends have been very active participants in the passing game, which gives us a chance to throw at a blitz for big yards.

Regardless, as I said: Lazor will probably call his plays with an eye toward establishing what he wants to do, not as a reaction to what the defense shows him.  Look for about a 60-40 or even 65-35 playcall split in favor of the pass, and for the TEs and RBs to get the majority of the receptions.  UVA has to have some semblance of ball control to win, and the way to do that will be to call a bunch of makable passes with an eye toward staying in bounds after the catch.

-- TCU run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Matthew Tucker: 19 carries, 100 yards, 5.3 avg., 0 TDs
B.J. Catalon: 13 carries, 63 yards, 4.8 avg., 0 TDs

TCU offense:
203.5 yards/game, 5.22 yards/attempt
33rd of 124 (national), 8th of 10 (B12)

UVA defense:
203.33 yards/game, 5.40 yards/attempt
109th of 124 (national), 12th of 12 (ACC)

Once again, the numbers lie: obviously those defensive stats are heavily influenced by the Georgia Tech game, and TCU, thank the stars, does not run the triple option.  Truth is, the best comparison so far is Penn State, albeit with better personnel here.

TCU appeared to take a major hit with the loss of top running back and home run threat Waymon James to a knee injury this week.  (Sounds like Elmer Fudd trying to pronounce the stadium where the Tampa Bay Bucs play.)  It might not matter though; Matthew Tucker has run pretty effectively too, these first couple games.  James was a lot better, but Tucker certainly was no slouch.

Our D-line will have their hands full with a TCU offensive line that doesn't include a single 200-pounder.  But the level of competition TCU has faced so far makes it tough to judge their abilities.  That said, Tucker has a very, very good body of work for his career, so ultimately I don't draw a lot of comfort from James's absence.  Tucker is a biggish, powerful back, and B.J. Catalon can be a nice change of pace, so TCU fans might notice James's absence, but we probably won't.

Still.  The truth is, every time TCU keeps it on the ground, that's a win for us, given the ugliness of the passing game matchups.  Even after last week's crimes against football, I still believe in the strength of our defense against a conventional run.  I very much expect Tucker to be held below his career average of 5.5 yards a carry, and better yet, a run play means they're not passing the ball.  For that latter reason, I don't think TCU will run the ball much more than we will.  A 60-40 split in favor of the pass is likely, until and unless TCU gets a lead big enough to run down the clock.

-- TCU pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Casey Pachall: 33/39, 84.6%; 536 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs; 13.74 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Josh Boyce: 9 rec., 168 yards, 2 TDs
Brandon Carter: 9 rec., 162 yards, 3 TDs

TCU offense:
305.5 yards/game, 13.0 yards/attempt
1st of 124 (national), 1st of 10 (B12)

UVA defense:
193.3 yards/game, 5.9 yards/attempt
29th of 124 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)

DOOM.  Casey Pachall's stats might be a little pumped up by getting easy long plays against Grambling, but whatever the competition, you have to respect an 85% completion rate.  This is where we get to the part that people are looking at when they put an almost 20-point line on this game.

At wide receiver, Josh Boyce and Brandon Carter are very good players and Pachall's favorite targets.  Boyce was a hair shy of a 1,000-yard season last year.  Neither are very big, so a size matchup with our smaller corners isn't a problem, but they're tough covers regardless.  The matchup problem comes when 6'4" receiver LaDarius Brown comes on the field.

UVA may have to go nickel a lot in this game, since our linebackers aren't too likely to be able to consistently stay with a receiver like Brown.  TCU doesn't use the tight end in the passing game, so Maurice Canady is going to get a ton of work.  That'll complicate things; you know how brutally inexperienced the secondary is, and any time you're taking an experienced linebacker off the field for a true freshman corner, you're holding your breath.  Against TCU that's not going to be just a third-down thing.

I just hate our chances here.  Pass rush or die is the way it has to be, and that could use some real work, as we have three sacks this year and Steve Greer has two of them, both in the Penn State game against the cement-footed Matt McGloin.  There's no way Pachall doesn't rack up an easy 350 yards on Saturday, unless he snaps his leg in two during warmups.  Dude's got weapons and knows how to use 'em.  The prediction is death and destruction.

-- Outlook

This game starts at 11 AM Central time, so the main hope is that TCU fans and students are too hung over to bother showing up.  Otherwise, it's a road game, at a weird start time (worse for us because the TCU guys have had 11 AM starts before, and we haven't) against an offense well-equipped to take advantage of our weaknesses.  Yeah, that line of 20 or so looks about right.  I'll start to believe we can win if Mike Rocco is able to match Casey Pachall pass for pass.  I think that's doable, it's just not all that likely.  Fortunately, this is the last we gonna die game for a long time.  The next one might just be on Thanksgiving weekend.  (Or it might be a little earlier and I don't notice because we're coming off what I hope is a four-game win streak starting next weekend.)  At any rate, we gonna die.

-- Prediction summary

(Ed. Enjoying a scotch (or one of various other fine beverages) while watching Thursday night football and writing the game preview is one of my favorite things to do.  It has its downside, however.  With that in mind, here are the predictions that I forgot about last night.)

-- Not counting obvious attempts to mercifully run down the clock, the playcalling split for both teams will be higher than 60-40 in favor of the pass.

-- Both quarterbacks will complete better than 65% of their passes.

-- Casey Pachall will top 350 yards.

-- UVA's running game again fails to generate 4 yards a carry.

-- More of Rocco's passes are caught by TEs and RBs than WRs.

-- Final score: TCU 38, UVA 21

-- Rest of the ACC:

Boston College off.

Virginia Tech vs. Bowling Green, 12:00: Maroon and orange vs. brown and orange.  I think they're trolling everyone's fashion sense.

Maryland @ West Virginia, 12:00: The good news is, we're not the deadest ACC team this weekend.  Maryland is.

Wake Forest vs. Army, 12:30: Big-scoring game, this.  Army's defense is absolutely dreadful.

Miami @ Georgia Tech, 3:00: Miami gave up 52 points to Kansas State because they were positively owned in the trenches.  It wouldn't surprise to see a third-straight 50-pointer out of GT.

North Carolina vs. East Carolina, 3:30: It's not like UNC has a bowl trip to protect, what with sanctions and all, but if they did, this game would be a must-win for eligibility purposes, having lost two games in a row now.

Duke vs. Memphis, 6:00: Memphis is truly horrible, which makes them an ideal future Big East team.

NC State vs. The Citadel, 6:00: The Citadel is 3-0 and threatening to muster up what would be only their second winning season since 1998.  They're still not a threat to knock off the Pack, though.  One hopes.

Clemson @ Florida State, 8:00: ACC why u make all best matchups in September???

game preview: Penn State

Date/Time: Saturday, September 8; 12:00

TV: ABC

Record against the Lions: 2-5

Last meeting: PSU 35, UVA 14; 11/9/02; State College (PSU vacated the win)

Last weekend: UVA 43, UR 19; Ohio 24, PSU 14

Line: UVA by 10

Opposing blogs: Black Shoe Diaries

Injury report: none (ACC games only)

This year, UVA and Penn State renew the home-and-home series they played ten years ago.  The first game was fun; played on a sunny and warm December afternoon (postponed since it was originally scheduled for September 15, 2001) and bring back good memories.  Specifically, waving bye-bye to the formerly loud section of PSU fans, their bowl hopes dashed, as they trudged up the hill next to the student section.  All of which, in fact, was fondly waving bye-bye.  The return game never happened as far as the record books are concerned, which is probably for the best.

-- UVA run offense vs. PSU run defense

Top backs:
Perry Jones: 14 carries, 52 yards, 3.7 avg., 1 TD
Khalek Shepherd: 10 carries, 52 yards, 5.2 avg., 1 TD

UVA offense:
184 yards/game, 4.38 yards/attempt
54th of 117 (national); 5th of 12 (ACC)

PSU defense:
175 yards/game, 3.72 yards/attempt
57th of 117 (national); 6th of 12 (Big Ten)

I think we can all agree the run game against Richmond was a little disappointing.  I think Mike London thinks so too; the change at left guard reflects that, with Conner Davis moving into the starting lineup over Cody Wallace.  Penn State's defense didn't perform quite as expected last week, but the run defense held up relatively well; Ohio's Beau Blankenship ran for 109 yards but he needed 31 carries to do it.

This is big boy football now - literally.  No more undersized front four (that we can't run against anyway) - Penn State brings 324-pound DT Daquan Jones to the fight, and as if that weren't enough, he lines up next to 316-pound James Terry.  And then there's the a host of talented linebackers.  The defense wasn't hit especially hard by the offseason transfers, and the linebacker unit is led by seniors Michael Mauti and Gerald Hodges.  These are the two outside linebackers, and their talent and experience means UVA will have a tougher time on the edges than last week.  Against Richmond, most of the success came on the edges; against Penn State, UVA will absolutely have to account for these two in order to duplicate that.

So there's a little bit of a warning sign here.  Where UVA struggled last week - on the interior - PSU is huge.  And where UVA did well, PSU is very strong.  The good news: Penn State's pass rush sucked last week.  What does that have to do with run defense?  It might be possible to account for that by saying Ohio used a short-ish passing game to limit the time Tyler Tettleton spent in the pocket, and there may be a stick of truth to that, but the other truth is, PSU spent no time at all in the Bobcat backfield.  Ohio may have had to grind out yards, but neither did they get pushed backwards; the Nittany Lions registered one TFL all game.  And that was a sack.

It's a little early in the season to be drawing positive conclusions about the opposition, but you can't discount that there's talent in this front seven we're facing.  I think the O-line will have its hands full, and the interior must step up its play.  With its woes in the pass defense, I don't expect PSU to load the box the way Richmond did, but they may not need to.  I look for a fairly similar performance to last week out of our backs.

-- UVA pass offense vs. PSU pass defense

Quarterback:
Mike Rocco: 25/37, 67.6%; 311 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT; 8.41 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Tim Smith: 6 rec., 96 yards, 0 TD
Darius Jennings: 5 rec., 84 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
361 yards/game, 8.4 yards/attempt
29th of 117 (national); 5th of 12 (ACC)

PSU defense:
324 yards/game, 7.9 yards/attempt
89th of 117 (national); 11th of 12 (Big Ten)

Like UVA, Penn State has an inexperienced secondary that hasn't seen a lot of starting time, and unlike UVA last week, they had to play a good quarterback who could take advantage of it.  If the Ohio game is any lesson, UVA could find a lot of success through the air on Saturday.

The Bobcats stack up similarly to UVA in the passing game.  Tyler Tettleton is very similar to Rocco: a highly effective game manager who throws long just often enough to keep defenses honest.  Running back Beau Blankenship - who at 5'9", 202, is built similarly to UVA's primary backs, had seven receptions for 72 yards, and Bill Lazor likes to get his running backs involved in a similar way.

The only member of the secondary who made much of a dent on the box score was safety Malcolm Willis, who broke up a pair of passes.  Decent.  Cornerback Adrian Amos made 10 tackles, likely the result of being picked on and giving up his share of receptions.  As mentioned above, the pass rush was non-existent.  PSU will probably try and emphasize that this week, but it's a formidable task for anyone to go against UVA's outstanding offensive tackles, and pass protection as a whole against Richmond was excellent.

Therefore, expect a few blitzes.  PSU's new defensive coordinator is Ted Roof, and he's not above dialing up some of that blitzy goodness.  If he does, I do expect UVA to do a mostly solid job at picking it up (Perry Jones in particular is a good blocker when called upon to do so), and Rocco is good at throwing at the blitz and turning it against a defense.

The big difference, of course, between UVA and Ohio?  The Bobcats did their thing with mostly no-name receivers.  We have some dynamite that Ohio doesn't.  I have a good feeling about Darius Jennings this week, and Rocco should be able to carve up the PSU defense as efficiently as Tettleton did.  Look for a big day out of #6 - I think he'll find his way into the end zone again, and notch 100 yards receiving besides.  And another 300-yard day out of Rocco shouldn't come as any surprise.

-- PSU run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Bill Belton: 13 carries, 51 yards, 4.1 avg., 0 TD
Derek Day: 8 carries, 36 yards, 4.5 avg., 0 TD

PSU offense:
92 yards/game, 4.18 yards/attempt
62nd of 117 (national), 5th of 12 (Big Ten)

UVA defense:
28 yards/game, 1.33 yards/attempt
11th of 117 (national); 3rd of 12 (ACC)

First, the bad news for Penn State; Bill Belton sprained an ankle in the Ohio game, and his duties in the UVA game are going to be significantly reduced.  Derek Day gets the start on Saturday, and reading between the lines it sounds like the PSU staff isn't especially confident in Belton's ankle.

Day had a respectable outing against Ohio, but a home run threat he is not.  Truth is, PSU probably abandoned the run too early against the Bobcats and tried to put everything on Matt McGloin's shoulders, and he's not a consistent enough quarterback for that.  PSU was generally able to move the ball last week, but got nothing longer than 14 yards, and Belton's longest was just eight.  In their favor, you know I always say the run game has a big asset if the team has a good center, and PSU has a good one in Matt Stankiewitch.  But much of the rest of the O-line is still finding their feet, and the unit has some gelling to do as most of them were not starters last year.

Level-of-competition caveats certainly apply, but you can't be anything but pleased with the results from last week.  Henry Coley did a very solid job.  Kick it up a notch this week, but the fact that UVA took care of business and PSU, ultimately, did not, and against MAC competition (OK, one of the MAC favorites, but still the MAC) has to give you a good feeling about the upcoming matchup.  PSU doesn't have anyone especially scary toting the rock - they were supposed to have Silas Redd, and he would have given us fits, but it'll be hard to do that in a USC uniform.  Belton's ankle will probably keep him out of any meaningful action, if any at all.

That leaves Day - not a game-changer - and large bruiser Curtis Dukes, who'll play and probably split carries as Day is also not a workhorse.  Dukes weighs in at 245 pounds, so our linebackers will definitely have their hands full there, but the best PSU will likely be able to muster is a slow-and-steady march rather than a big-play machine.  I think the Hoos will have success here, holding PSU to about 2.5 yards a carry, even though I expect the PSU staff to try and balance the playcalling better than they did last week.

Also, in light of recent events I think it's only right to try and get PSU's ninth-string center Frank "Frankie Figs" Figueroa some playing time this week.  RIP MCD. 

-- PSU pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Matt McGloin: 27/48, 56.3%; 260 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT; 5.42 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Allen Robinson: 9 rec., 97 yards, 0 TDs
Kyle Carter: 6 rec., 74 yards, 0 TDs

PSU offense:
260 yards/game, 5.4 yards/attempt
96th of 117 (national); 11th of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
238 yards/game, 5.5 yards/attempt
36th of 117 (national); 5th of 12 (ACC)

I wish I had any idea what to expect here.  You know what our secondary is like, and that our pass rush isn't great.  And on the other side, Matt McGloin - is kind of a putz.  A step up from last week in that he actually can hit open receivers, but McGloin is also wildly inconsistent.  Ask him to win the game, as the PSU staff did last week, and he likely can't do it.

However, there's at least one matchup issue with 6'3" Allen Robinson at receiver.  No doubt he'll be Tre Nicholson's assignment, and he could be a tough one.  PSU is as thin at receiver as they are at RB and DB, but last week, Robinson looked ready to step up and be a reliable target for McGloin.  PSU lists Garry Gilliam as the starting tight end, but he's a blocker first, and it was reserve Kyle Carter being targeted last week, and that's likely to continue.

If Nicholson can neutralize Robinson, though, there's nothing all that scary on the PSU side of the ball.  The scary part is our own secondary, but PSU doesn't have the weapons to take advantage of it consistently.  McGloin will have his moments, but he'll also find ways to miss, and this could be another game where our secondary's weaknesses are again disguised by poor QB play.

-- Outlook

Penn State obviously has a little bit of a shadow on them these days.  And the intangibles for this game are as out-of-whack as you'd expect.  Normally you think maybe a team coming off a bad loss would be motivated to take it out on the next guy, which is us.  But then, if they weren't motivated by the show of support and emotion from last week's game, how can they be up for this one?  But maybe getting away from all the extracurriculars and being able to just focus on football will be good for them?  I don't know.  Playing amateur shrink is hard.  Let's focus on the tangibles.  I don't think our run game will be much better than last week, and I think PSU may be able to expose some weaknesses there.  But the passing - oy could they not defend the pass last week.  UVA is very similar to Ohio, only with better receivers, so there's a chance to have a fun little field day here.  And Penn State's offense just isn't that impressive.  Here's expecting a good start to the season.

-- Prediction summary

-- UVA's run game isn't any better than last week's.
-- On the flip side, Penn State is held to about 2.5 yards a carry.
-- Mike Rocco tops 300 yards again.
-- Darius Jennings goes for 100 yards and a touchdown.
-- McGloin completes 60% of his passes.
-- But doesn't top 7 yards per attempt.

-- Final score

UVA 27, PSU 17

-- Rest of the ACC

-- NC State @ Connecticut, 12:00 (The Pack looked awful last week, and this week we might find out if they were pretenders after all.)

-- Maryland @ Temple, 12:00 (There's talk that Temple may be the best team in the state of Pennsylvania this year.  Bad sign for the godawful Terps.)

-- Miami @ Kansas State, 12:00 (The highest-ranked opponent for an ACC team this week. Please do not embarrass us, Miami.)

-- Clemson vs. Ball State, 12:30 (Whatever.)

-- Boston College vs. Maine, 1:00 (No, this is not a hockey game.)

-- Virginia Tech vs. Austin Peay, 1:30 (A perfect week to break out one of the best cheers in sports: Let's Go Peay!)

-- North Carolina @ Wake Forest, 3:00 (The only ACC game of the week.)

-- Florida State vs. Savannah State, 6:00 (I say this with every ounce of seriousness I can muster: FSU should be ashamed of themselves for scheduling this.)

-- Georgia Tech vs. Presbyterian, 7:00 (The Jackets take on an entire religion.)

-- Duke @ Stanford, 10:30 (Duke looked remarkably competent last week, and Stanford looked just the opposite.  Do not be surprised to see this one look closer than it did last year.)

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P.S. - Public Service Announcement forthcoming here.  It should occur to you, by the way, that this is the first "new era" road game for Penn State - that is, the first time Penn State will appear in a road stadium after all the, um, events of the offseason have had a chance to sink in.  This would seem like a perfect opportunity to put on your Dookie hat and break out all your best shower and pedophile jokes with which to heckle the vulnerable opposition.  DON'T FUCKING DO THAT.  Not to a player or to a visiting fan.  OK?  I don't care if they do want to start an argument about Joe Paterno.  No doubt the Nittany Lions will appear in more uncouth venues later on down the road, so let's preemptively show the world that it's possible to leave certain subjects out of one's vocabulary for the day.

the recruit: Andre Miles-Redmond

Name: Andre Miles-Redmond
Position: OG
Hometown: Richmond
School: Hermitage
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 260

24/7: 85; three stars
ESPN: 78; three stars; #39 OG; Atlantic Reg. #93; VA #13
Rivals: 5.5; three stars; VA #20
Scout: three stars; ##73 OG

Other offers: Virginia Tech, NC State

It took just over a month for UVA to lock up its entire offensive line class** and two quick days in June for half of that to show up.  Andre Miles-Redmond committed to UVA in the middle of UVA's summer commitment rush, one day after Sean Karl.

AMR got his three offers early in the process - all before April - so that was the three-horse race; if he was gonna get any more, he'd've had them by the time he committed on the last day of June.  Really, it was going to be either UVA or VT almost all the way.  He always had nice things to say about NC State but sounded more excited about the instate schools.

Not a big guy, AMR is in fact the smallest of the O-line prospects UVA will sign in February, but that shouldn't make a difference in the end as he clearly has 30 pounds of growth in him.  ESPN calls him 6'3" while the other services go with 6'4", though, so it's probably a short 6'4" rather than bordering on 6'5", which would get him to tackle height.  ESPN's review is also helpful, and you don't even have to go past the first sentence: "Miles-Redmond is a tough productive run blocker who flashes good pass protection skills."  In other words, run blocking is his thing and he can sometimes pass block.  Miles-Redmond plays right tackle at Hermitage, but clearly projects as a college guard.

This puts him in good company, because three of UVA's four lineman commits project at guard; Karl is the only one that looks like a definite tackle.  (If I had to move a second prospect to tackle, it'd probably be Ryan Doull.)  So AMR has a lot of competition.  Plus, UVA has a good succession plan at guard.  Austin Pasztor will be gone next year, but Luke Bowanko will only be a junior.  Whether it's Matt Mihalik or Conner Davis (or even Jay Whitmire) that takes over for Pasztor next year is irrelevant since Miles-Redmond is never going to unglue himself from the bench in 2012, not at 260 pounds.  Or even 270.  Bowanko will be a senior and Davis a junior when AMR is ready to emerge from his redshirt cocoon, and I'm not stupid enough to predict how these three guards will compete with each other.  One may break up the logjam by moving to center.  (Mooney?)  Who knows.  What I will say is that it's not too likely that Miles-Redmond (or any of the three guards) makes much of an appearance on the field til his sophomore year, which will be 2014.  This competition and succession plan isn't the best thing for the minutes of an individual player like Miles-Redmond, but it's the healthiest thing imaginable for UVA.

******************************************

-- Let's see if we can get all our offensive lineman named ACC OL of the Week.  Last week it was Mihota; this week, Aboushi.  Robert Randolph was national co-kicker of the week for the second straight week, as well as ACC Specialist OTW, and Cam Johnson got ACC DL honors for going RAAAAWWWWRRR.

-- I did say UVA's thrillingish win got little press because it was UVA-IU and not involving some of the bigger boys, but Pat Forde thought enough of it to give it a mention.  In kind of a unique way, actually.  I've always had this impression of Forde as a guy who's mostly interested in the top half of BCS conferences, southern teams in particular, and occasional nods to the absolute worst of the worst.  So it's nice to get a call out.  Special mini-joke: Rating Michigan's comeback over Notre Dame a "Joe Montana" on a scale of 1 to 10.  I don't know if he did that on purpose or not but it's moderately evil and I like it.

-- I'd keep writing but the Benadryl is starting to kick in.  It maks mee spel things funnie.

the recruit: Tyrell Chavis

There's a lot of newsish stuff to catch up on, mainly the highly-anticipated publishing of the depth chart, but I also don't want to get too far behind on the recruit profiles.  So today is a two for the price of one special.

Name: Tyrell Chavis
Position: DT
Hometown: Richmond
School: Varina
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 300

24/7: 83; three stars
ESPN: 78; three stars; #44 OG; VA #16; Atl. Reg. #104
Rivals: 5.5; three stars; VA #24
Scout: two stars; #99 OG

Other offers: Boston College, Vanderbilt

Tyrell Chavis is an important recruit for a couple of reasons.  Actually about 300 reasons.  Chavis is really the only true defensive tackle in the class right now, and unless Korren Kirven comes on board - highly unlikely - it'll stay that way.  There will be others that might grow into DTs, but Chavis is already one, and the only one like him in the class.  So of course, all the sites rate him for his play on the offensive line instead.

Yes, Chavis plays both sides of the line, and his 6'3" height screams guard all the way, but there are plenty of those guys in the class.  So despite any rumblings about the "possibility" he'll play on the offensive side, I expect defense.  Chavis looks like a true nose guard.  I say this from looking at the one highlight film available since all the evaluations are on offense.  He's got one move: go forward regardless of what is in the way.  Technique isn't his strong suit; being physical is.

So I expect Chavis to develop as a middle-clogging zero-tech or one-tech nose tackle.  (Meaning he plays right over top of the center or just a shade over in the gap.)  But not for a couple years.  It's a little bit of an open secret that Chavis will likely end up having to prep for a year, probably at FUMA, the usual designated place for UVA recruits who need a little help making the grade.  Chavis's academic challenges are said not to be the product of laziness or incorrect priorities, rather, a family situation.  The other schools to offer him actual scholarships were Boston College and Vanderbilt, which should give you an idea of the concern level. 

So even if a prep year is in the cards it's not the worst thing.  Chavis needs a year anyway to get rid of some baby fat and turn into a 300-pound person-crusher instead of merely a large obstacle, so he'd have simply spent the year redshirting.  Right now, Chris Brathwaite is the fifth defensive tackle as a redshirt freshman; after Chavis FUMA-shirts, it wouldn't surprise too greatly to see him filling that role in technically his true freshman season in 2013.  It depends on how many other guys move inside to DT.  I don't think Chavis will develop into a major pass-rush threat, as he doesn't really have the quicks for it; he'll probably rotate out during passing situations.  Rather, his potential is as a big run-stuffer who creates those passing situations in the first place.

*****************************************************

Let's talk depth chart.  Actually, no.  Let's save that til the end just to make you crazy.  Let's talk Senior Seasons instead.  High schools around the country got into the game for real this weekend, even here in Michigan as the GP South Blue Devils got off to a fine start with a shutout against U-D Jesuit and ended the week ranked #4 in the Eastern region of Metro Detroit.  A fine start to build on last year's surprise appearance in the state semifinals.  It's my blog, I get to write what I want.

But you're here to read about my other alma mater, so let's see what UVA's recruits did this weekend.  A little under half of them were in action this weekend.  Sort of.  The 757 guys got postponed thanks to Irene.  Norfolk Christian is playing as I type, so, update on that next week.  So really all there is, is the Georgia games again.

Wayne County 28, Windsor Forest 28: Yes, a tie.  Greyson Lambert threw two touchdowns for Wayne but also two picks, and was just 13/27 overall for 127 yards.  Wayne was up 28-6 to start the fourth, but turnovers cost them the win.  Wayne County is 0-0-1.

Also playing:

Buford 49, Gainesville 0 (C.J. Moore. Buford is 2-0.)

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OK, now we can have some sweet sweet depth chart action.  The official two-deep is here, and the FOV depth chart has been updated as well.  The items of interest:

-- Demetrious Nicholson has indeed won the starting position at cornerback opposite Chase Minnifield; the real news, though, is Rijo Walker's surprise move to safety.  That makes Dom Joseph basically the nickel corner and walk-on Drequan Hoskey the fourth cornerback.  (For now; Brandon Phelps may overtake Hoskey in the rotation.)  This is actually excellent news for Walker, whose path to a starting job at corner was going to be very difficult with Nicholson and Phelps around; Walker is now the backup free safety, which means plenty of playing time and a starting job to inherit as a junior.  We'll see how his talents translate to safety.

-- The other backup at safety is true freshman Anthony Harris.  Walker's move and Harris's promotion is bad news for Groh recruits LoVante' Battle and Pablo Alvarez.  Alvarez is still only a redshirt freshman so no big deal yet; Battle is a junior without a spot on the two-deep, which makes it pretty official that he's been passed up.  I think the Nicholson promotion is a good sign and Harris's promotion a bad one; Nicholson beat out someone who'd been establishing a quality rep.  Harris beat someone who's never distinguished himself and has bounced from safety to linebacker and back without hardly ever seeing the field.  Fortunately there's a very strong starter at strong safety in Rodney McLeod, but Harris is probably in for a baptism by fire.

-- Ausar Walcott is working his way back up the depth chart very nicely; now listed as Aaron Taliaferro's backup at Sam linebacker.  It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him overtake Taliaferro by season's end; Walcott is much more physically gifted and needs only to match Taliaferro's mental grasp of the position.  Good to see Walcott recovering from his misstep in January.

-- Conner Davis as the backup right guard gives me more confidence than when that was Billy Cuffee.

-- Good things have been said about Kelby Johnson this fall; even so, his position on the depth chart as backup left tackle is mainly due to Landon Bradley's ongoing injury saga.  (FWIW, I don't think Bradley will be able to make it back, unfortunately.)  There are some very good players at offensive tackle but not a world of depth.

-- It's interesting how Matt Snyder keeps hanging around.  He must be doing something right.  Looks like he, Kris Burd, and Tim Smith are the starting rotation at wide receiver with the wondertwins, Darius Jennings and Dominique Terrell, backing up and sharing kick/punt return duties.

-- Reading the tea leaves from the press conference and the depth chart, it sounds like Mike Rocco and Ross Metheny are interchangeable - that is, Metheny is Rocco's backup - and David Watford has his own specially carved out role.  I think this will be different than when Bryson Spinner and Matt Schaub were on the play-til-you-screw-up schedule in 2001.  I hope I'm right.

-- Lot of freshman types, both redshirt and true, on the two-deep here.  I count 12, not including long snapper Matt Fortin.  Unless injuries start running crazy on our starters, this actually looks like a very promising setup since of those 12, only one is a starter and he's got a very good reason to be there that doesn't involve the suckiness of the competition.  We have veteran starters in most positions with underclassmen being heavily worked into the rotation; I like how that works for both now and the future.