I have to admit I've been unsure how to start this post. I have all sorts of great ideas for how to finish it, each more spiteful than the last. Maybe I'll go with the anecdote of the Cleveland Browns fan who died this past summer and wrote in his obituary that he wanted some of the Browns to act as pallbearers for his funeral - so they could let him down one last time.
I only hope I can maintain that kind of phlegmatic humor for the next 15 months, because they're going to be awful ones as far as football is concerned. Probably the next 12 after that too since it looks likely that a new coach will take a minute or two in getting up to speed as well. Hopefully that guy can coach his way out of a brown paper bag, because he's going to get here and find a lot of fans wearing them.
This season is a lesson, really. I'm starting to feel awfully vindicated, in a grotesque way. The UVA-fan conventional wisdom has always been about "building for the future" by pulling experienced players the moment the season starts to go south and putting in wide-eyed freshmen to "get their reps" because it will "pay dividends down the road." When Marc Verica was starting, fans wanted Ross Metheny or Mike Rocco instead. When Rocco was starting, fans wanted David Watford instead, and then they wanted Phillip Sims. Now we're doing exactly what this breed of fans has always wanted, because we have no choice - and it's pissing the future down the drain. Every loss brings us mercifully closer to the end of the Mike London era, and sends recruits scurrying elsewhere. Melvin Keihn has liked UVA for a long time and he comes from a very pro-UVA school, and he will probably not go to UVA. London has been working on Jamil Kamara for three years, and his current leader is Wisconsin. (This said, Kamara seems to be the type of recruit whose leader is the last school he visited.) Tim Settle is a crucial 2015 recruit, whose recruitment is getting more and more wide open by the day. 2015 needs to be a huge class, because there will be jillions of seniors next year, and London is going to walk into that recruiting cycle with one foot in the lame-duck grave.
Watford may yet bloom in 2015, of course. Can't rule that out. The play-for-the-future crowd certainly doesn't have that part wrong yet. I couldn't decide whether he would progress or regress during this Duke game, I just didn't anticipate him doing both.
At any rate, we are now in dangerous territory. It could've been avoided simply by not shitting the bed with the lights on in the second half. The danger is not so much that the London era might be over soon. I'm taking it for granted that it will be. You're to take for granted now that I don't have any more faith in his coaching abilities. I say this reluctantly and with a twinge of regret, even, because he seems like good people, and a guy who genuinely gives a shit about his players. But I've given him the same slack one gives a player - and in a player's fourth year, we expect him to stop making stupid freshman mistakes because he ought to have grown up enough by now. Well, here is London's senior year, so to speak, and he hasn't figured out shit. I'm not going to spend every week ranting about it because I accept that he's not going anywhere after this season. Just read into everything I say an assumption that London doesn't know how to fix the problems.
No, the real danger is that London's tenure, five years long if we continue down this path, is going to go down in history as even worse than that of the most vilified figure in UVA football history. Al Groh at least started off pretty well. Sure, he might have been micromanaging, overly self-assured, and totally inflexible; sure, he irritated a few high school coaches; sure, he pissed off a few people on the way out, and again by letting Georgia Tech structure his contract so we were paying him to coach there; sure, he helped dry up the instate recruiting pipelines; sure, he went to one bowl game in his last four years. But you have to give this to the man in the glass: He had a winning record against fucking Duke.
********************************************
Prediction summary:
-- Kevin Parks gains 100+ yards. Parks sputtered out with lame blocking and generally bad decisions from Watford on the read-option, and gained only 50.
-- The UVA run offense generates about 200 yards. I really thought we were well on our way here, but again, thppbbbtt, and again, exactly half what I expected.
-- David Watford averages over six yards a throw. (Whee.)
-- Watford tops 200 yards passing. (Whee, again.) Watford did succeed in both endeavors; the Duke pass defense was pretty awful and Watford looked very good early in calmly finding the guy that some Duke safety or linebacker would leave wide open in a futile all-out rush at the QB. Unfortunately, Watford got happy-armed as time went on and started overthrowing everyone in sight.
-- Duke's passing game tops 300 yards. It "only" got 292. Can I have that one? I'm having that one. Largely the reason it didn't is because Boone looked like crap early. He settled in nicely, though, eh? And he'd have blown past 300 easily based only on how our defense played.
-- Neither team comes up with a turnover all game long. Both quarterbacks threw a pick, so, no.
Going three of six - a very dubious three of six, but whatever, the Tigers lost and the Lions lost and the Red Wings lost and UVA lost and I had the restraint not to drive into a bridge embankment so the third prediction is my prize - makes me 16-for-36 on the season. Also, I came damn close to nailing that final score, so I'm 4-3 both straight up and against the spread now. This might be unfair, though, at this point; all I have to do is pick us to lose every week and at least then I'm guaranteed a winning record.
Showing posts with label rocco. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rocco. Show all posts
Sunday, October 20, 2013
Tuesday, January 1, 2013
christmas presents
Technically it's already 2013 and Christmas was a week ago, but it's still not too late to look back at the year 2012 that was, and see who got a nice pile of presents from Santa and who got.....something else. Without much further ado, the Naughty and Nice List from 2012.
-- Teresa Sullivan. Let's face it, the top story of 2012 didn't take place on the field or in any locker room. It started with the email that showed up in your inbox if you're an alum, announcing President Sullivan's abrupt "resignation," and more or less ended a couple weeks later with her reinstatement. In between was a raging firestorm that caught national media attention. The grace and class displayed by the president at the time was exemplary.
-- Mike Scott. Now plying his trade with the NBA's Atlanta Hawks, Scott did something at UVA that's been all too rare for Virginia fans: he lived up to his potential. Actually, he rather exceeded it. His transformation from emotional fireball and rebound specialist to a complete basketball player was a joy to watch, and when an ESPN columnist failed to include Scott in the conversation for national player of the year, UVA fans did it for him. And they were backed up by KenPom, whose statguruizing placed Scott among the top ten players in the country. That was the kind of notoriety that had been sorely missing from UVA hoops of late.
-- John Swofford. Look, Swoff has his critics. Sometimes they're right. But I don't consider myself one of them. If the ACC falls apart, it'll be difficult to blame the conference commissioner, who's been creative, and mostly successful thus far, in his attempts to hold the league together. His success in attracting Notre Dame, a school that gives the ACC badly needed cachet, should not be overlooked. And even though the Irish aren't technically a football member of the league, their five games a season against ACC teams is not really that far from a full schedule, and should give the ACC a few barganing chips at the all-important TV rights negotiating table, which is really where leagues are held together or destroyed.
-- Tony Bennett. Let's take a second and acknowledge our basketball coach, who got the Hoos to the tournament probably ahead of schedule, despite watching attrition and injuries whittle his team down to six and a half scholarship players by season's end. And this season he has them threatening to go back to the Dance, again despite a major obstacle in the form of the extreme youth of his charges and a nagging foot injury to the team's only scholarship senior.
-- Mike Rocco, pre-transfer. Let's face it: having Phillip Sims transfer in was a potential boon for UVA's offense, but it was also a really awkward situation. During the season, Rocco handled the see-sawing as well as anyone could have demanded. Few quarterbacks in UVA's recent history have been jerked around as much as Rocco was.
-- Most of the ACC's presidents, both current and future. Their statement of solidarity doesn't guarantee anything long-term about the stability of the ACC, but it was the most they could've done under the circumstances and much appreciated by those of us who like the ACC, dammit.
-- Helen Dragas. Stipulated: that it's the Board of Visitors' job to hire and fire the school president, that UVA faces a number of challenges that are not exactly existential but must not be underestimated, and that I have no real idea whether or not Teresa Sullivan is the person to handle those challenges. That said, Dragas's orchestration of Sullivan's resignation this summer, sans actual BOV vote, was far more reminiscent of a banana-republic military coup than the lofty ideals of American governance. It angered practically everyone associated with the school and cast UVA in a poor national light. The story, fortunately, had a happy ending, and one hopes the board is a little bit chastened, as well as smarter, for the experience.
-- Wallace Loh. The University of Maryland president who engineered the Terps' move to the Big Ten flat-out admitted that the only knowledge he had of athletic conferences was that "there are games." This is a man with a PhD from Michigan, faculty stints at Texas, Houston, Vanderbilt, Washington, has been a dean at Colorado and Washington and a provost at Iowa, and is now president of Maryland. All of these are schools with big-time college football in big-time conferences. This is a man who's spent 30 years with his head so far buried in ivory-tower academia, in ambitious pursuit of the position he now holds, and hasn't learned anything about the athletic organizations to which his school belongs except "there are games." And this is the kind of person in charge of making decisions about college athletics. (But who would certainly be appalled at the idea of a non-degree-holding football fan being in charge of any academic decisions at his school.) The truth here really is that Jim Delany played Loh like a fiddle, and the ACC is worse off for it.
-- Mike Rocco, post-transfer. The flip side of Rocco's good behavior during the season was that he let loose the frustration afterwards. He wasn't speaking untruths, but even some truths are better left out of the public eye.
-- Foot bones. And those slightly above the foot, as well, like in the ankle area. Broken bones have sidelined Jontel Evans, put an early end to Assane Sene's UVA career, and canceled the season for Malcolm Brogdon as well. These foot injuries represent one of the bigger threats to UVA's hoops season.
-- Mike London's clock management. The failure to call timeout at the end of the VT game is a much-pilloried decision (for the wrong reasons, and the criticism is misguided in that it obscures a much more egregious error earlier in the sequence) but it really was little more than a symptom of a larger problem: London barely knows what he's doing at the end of a half. Sometimes he is left without a timeout when he really needs one; other times he leaves them on the board. At least Pete Gillen had a philosophy, however maddening.
-- Special teams. The #1 reason why UVA did not go bowling. And make no mistake, for all its flaws, it should have been in a bowl. Simply beat Maryland and Wake Forest, two other non-bowl teams in the ACC, and UVA finds itself most likely in the Independence Bowl. Not a great assignment to be sure, but better than where we found ourselves in real life.
-- Teresa Sullivan. Let's face it, the top story of 2012 didn't take place on the field or in any locker room. It started with the email that showed up in your inbox if you're an alum, announcing President Sullivan's abrupt "resignation," and more or less ended a couple weeks later with her reinstatement. In between was a raging firestorm that caught national media attention. The grace and class displayed by the president at the time was exemplary.
-- Mike Scott. Now plying his trade with the NBA's Atlanta Hawks, Scott did something at UVA that's been all too rare for Virginia fans: he lived up to his potential. Actually, he rather exceeded it. His transformation from emotional fireball and rebound specialist to a complete basketball player was a joy to watch, and when an ESPN columnist failed to include Scott in the conversation for national player of the year, UVA fans did it for him. And they were backed up by KenPom, whose statguruizing placed Scott among the top ten players in the country. That was the kind of notoriety that had been sorely missing from UVA hoops of late.
-- John Swofford. Look, Swoff has his critics. Sometimes they're right. But I don't consider myself one of them. If the ACC falls apart, it'll be difficult to blame the conference commissioner, who's been creative, and mostly successful thus far, in his attempts to hold the league together. His success in attracting Notre Dame, a school that gives the ACC badly needed cachet, should not be overlooked. And even though the Irish aren't technically a football member of the league, their five games a season against ACC teams is not really that far from a full schedule, and should give the ACC a few barganing chips at the all-important TV rights negotiating table, which is really where leagues are held together or destroyed.
-- Tony Bennett. Let's take a second and acknowledge our basketball coach, who got the Hoos to the tournament probably ahead of schedule, despite watching attrition and injuries whittle his team down to six and a half scholarship players by season's end. And this season he has them threatening to go back to the Dance, again despite a major obstacle in the form of the extreme youth of his charges and a nagging foot injury to the team's only scholarship senior.
-- Mike Rocco, pre-transfer. Let's face it: having Phillip Sims transfer in was a potential boon for UVA's offense, but it was also a really awkward situation. During the season, Rocco handled the see-sawing as well as anyone could have demanded. Few quarterbacks in UVA's recent history have been jerked around as much as Rocco was.
-- Most of the ACC's presidents, both current and future. Their statement of solidarity doesn't guarantee anything long-term about the stability of the ACC, but it was the most they could've done under the circumstances and much appreciated by those of us who like the ACC, dammit.
-- Helen Dragas. Stipulated: that it's the Board of Visitors' job to hire and fire the school president, that UVA faces a number of challenges that are not exactly existential but must not be underestimated, and that I have no real idea whether or not Teresa Sullivan is the person to handle those challenges. That said, Dragas's orchestration of Sullivan's resignation this summer, sans actual BOV vote, was far more reminiscent of a banana-republic military coup than the lofty ideals of American governance. It angered practically everyone associated with the school and cast UVA in a poor national light. The story, fortunately, had a happy ending, and one hopes the board is a little bit chastened, as well as smarter, for the experience.
-- Wallace Loh. The University of Maryland president who engineered the Terps' move to the Big Ten flat-out admitted that the only knowledge he had of athletic conferences was that "there are games." This is a man with a PhD from Michigan, faculty stints at Texas, Houston, Vanderbilt, Washington, has been a dean at Colorado and Washington and a provost at Iowa, and is now president of Maryland. All of these are schools with big-time college football in big-time conferences. This is a man who's spent 30 years with his head so far buried in ivory-tower academia, in ambitious pursuit of the position he now holds, and hasn't learned anything about the athletic organizations to which his school belongs except "there are games." And this is the kind of person in charge of making decisions about college athletics. (But who would certainly be appalled at the idea of a non-degree-holding football fan being in charge of any academic decisions at his school.) The truth here really is that Jim Delany played Loh like a fiddle, and the ACC is worse off for it.
-- Mike Rocco, post-transfer. The flip side of Rocco's good behavior during the season was that he let loose the frustration afterwards. He wasn't speaking untruths, but even some truths are better left out of the public eye.
-- Foot bones. And those slightly above the foot, as well, like in the ankle area. Broken bones have sidelined Jontel Evans, put an early end to Assane Sene's UVA career, and canceled the season for Malcolm Brogdon as well. These foot injuries represent one of the bigger threats to UVA's hoops season.
-- Mike London's clock management. The failure to call timeout at the end of the VT game is a much-pilloried decision (for the wrong reasons, and the criticism is misguided in that it obscures a much more egregious error earlier in the sequence) but it really was little more than a symptom of a larger problem: London barely knows what he's doing at the end of a half. Sometimes he is left without a timeout when he really needs one; other times he leaves them on the board. At least Pete Gillen had a philosophy, however maddening.
-- Special teams. The #1 reason why UVA did not go bowling. And make no mistake, for all its flaws, it should have been in a bowl. Simply beat Maryland and Wake Forest, two other non-bowl teams in the ACC, and UVA finds itself most likely in the Independence Bowl. Not a great assignment to be sure, but better than where we found ourselves in real life.
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
weekend review
Agh so much crap. Why the University of Virginia football program insists on continuing to torture me in the winter after spending 13 weeks doing so in the fall is a thing inexplicable. The fortitude it takes to be a UVA fan is really something. Fortunately I'm prepared: I've pulled for the Detroit Lions since I was like 8.
Sad to say, however, the recognizable stench of dysfunction is again oozing out of the football offices. It takes UVA to screw up a coaching staff shakeup this badly. It wouldn't have been so bad if only the offensive staff had undergone a makeover, because it needed it. (And it got one, although not in all necessary areas.) I wrote my ITA article this week on the absurd upheaval in the staff, which you can read when it's posted sometime Tuesday, and I don't want to steal their thunder too much. At any rate I'm not duplicating more than one or two things, so you'll have to read it to get the whole picture. I'm getting my MBA, and we call that "marketing." According to the marketing textbook, everything is marketing.
Suffice it to say, however, I think somebody, somewhere, made a really stupid decision in firing Jim Reid and Jeff Hanson. I'll come out and say it: Hanson was almost certainly the best position coach on staff, and if not the best, top three, easy. (Consideration must be given to Vincent Brown, and perhaps Bill Lazor's quarterback work; remember we're talking about the guy who squeezed a remarkable amount of talent out of Marc Verica, before you scoff.)
It has the pawprints of outside meddling all over it. It might be a disgruntled fat-cat donor who doesn't know shit except for "Duke, 42 points" and is still butthurt about that. It might be Jon Oliver, who can usually be seen during games, standing, for some reason, on the sideline, like a sunspectacled watchdog. It might be Craig Littlepage, who showed his lack of confidence in Al Groh by making head coach decisions for him. (Such as sending Peter Lalich packing, a decision which I still say was not his to make. Such as firing Mike Groh as OC - admittedly necessary - and bringing in Gregg Brandon and telling Al Groh to shove a square peg into a round hole or else.) If they follow that pattern, they'll probably find some dude who runs a 3-3-5 defense.
One hopes, at least, that whatever forces out there fired Jim Reid, already had a replacement idea halfway locked up. At the moment I'm not especially interested in a search of my own to evaluate replacements. Having been made to look a fool by expecting common-sense changes, and being presented with evidence of erratic and unpredictable decision-making by the athletic department, I'm not especially confident I'll get it right, and I'm not especially confident they will either. Of course the top two names for now are Jon Tenuta and Randy Shannon, because they're well-known. Shannon is probably not one of the odds-on favorites; Tenuta may be, but he's sort of coaching NC State in a bowl game that doesn't take place til New Year's Eve. (Just to fuck with people maybe we should get on a Tennessee message board with the rumor that Jon Gruden is our pick.)
Obviously, waiting almost 30 days may not be a good idea; Reid and Hanson recruited several members of this recruiting class, and the snakes are in the grass as we speak trying to pull them to State College and Chapel Hill and College Park and Blacksburg and Buddha knows where else. There are lots of bridges to be rebuilt here, and a few decommitments and/or transfers are to be expected.
********************************************************
-- Why, speaking of transfers, the first one of the offseason hit the bricks this weekend, and it's somewhat surprisingly Mike Rocco. And he had some things to say on the way out. Things he probably shouldn't have said, because dirty laundry stays in house. It's bad enough the program looks like it's run by bumbling fools, going 4-8 and then firing the wrong coaches, but Rocco's comments didn't help.
That said, it's certainly more defensible than Jared Green's parting shots, which were easily exposed as flat lies. And Rocco sort of clarified a few things thought to be true and now more strongly thought to be true. People wondering if Bill Lazor and Mike London are quite on the same page when it comes to the QB rotation? "'In the Penn State game, Mike fumbled a snap and, the next series, totally unbeknownst to anybody, London made a decision to put Phillip Sims in. And nobody knew about it. Mike didn't know about it. The offensive coordinator didn't know about it."
Maybe the offensive coordinator should know about it. Rocco also flat-out confirmed what a lot of us had been thinking: he plays better when his leash is longer. Shorten the leash and he ties it into a noose, didn't I say something like that a little while back?
At any rate, the bad thing about Rocco's transfer is that it takes away our security blanket at quarterback. Phillip Sims hasn't made any moves to seize the job, David Watford redshirted, Greyson Lambert has never taken a college snap, and neither has Matt Johns. The competition is likely to be wide open. The good thing about Rocco's transfer, though, is that it takes away our security blanket. London earns a D+ for quarterback management so far, and he might well have been tempted to put Rocco in next season at the slightest sign of shakiness by whoever won the competition (assuming it wasn't Rocco.) At some point, London is going to have to learn to pick a winner of the derby before the season starts, and stick with him all season. If Rocco's public comment about being jerked in and out of the lineup drives home that point, it'll have been worth it.
-- The coaching change wasn't even the first thing to set everyone on edge this weekend. Some guy at some local TV station decided to start the old UVA-and-GT-to-the-Big-Ten rumor, and of course wound up with egg on his face when it didn't come true. Lemme give you a hint about conference realignment: big moves like that will never be broken by local TV stations unless they're also broken by like twenty other outlets. Newspaper reporters are still more plugged in than local TV hacks. Doug Doughty was the first guy that I saw with the Maryland news.
I don't want to be in the Big Ten, of course, but a small part of me was still hoping that this Kevin Jones guy somehow had a dead-on source that nobody else had, if only because that's the same part of me that rips off a scab even though I know damn well it'll bleed. I don't think any of UVA's various sports will prosper in the B1G, any more than they do in the ACC, but at least I could stop chewing my nails over the ACC's fate.
-- The ACC looks like its in trouble this bowl season, as usual, and this year you can blame, in part, UNC and Miami. Particularly UNC, who should be playing in the ex-Tangerine Bowl against Rutgers, instead of VT. That would've bumped everyone down to more manageable matchups; instead, most teams in the ACC are fighting above their weight class, and it's going to hurt. At least the ACC will win its BCS matchup. Or it should, anyway. You might now see the problem with a threshold for the non-BCS teams to earn automatic bids. Did the voters objectively come to the conclusion that Northern Illinois is really and truly slotted where they should be? Or did they decide to play God and put NIU into the BCS on purpose? Judging by the MAC CG announcers' giddy proclamations that Kent State could crash the BCS with a win, and thinly veiled disappointment that they didn't get it done, I'm guessing the latter. Nor do I particularly think it's a coincidence that both BCS polls ranked NIU exactly 16th. (Edit: My theory may be rather undermined by the fact that I voted NIU 16th in the Blogpoll, in a system, remember, that blindly ranks resume games against each other without me knowing who played them. So I am less suspicious than I was. But then, like the pollsters, I also put Oklahoma ahead of them. And why the pollsters think Boise is #15 is an eternal mystery, except that they're simply used to having them on the ballot.)
Sad to say, however, the recognizable stench of dysfunction is again oozing out of the football offices. It takes UVA to screw up a coaching staff shakeup this badly. It wouldn't have been so bad if only the offensive staff had undergone a makeover, because it needed it. (And it got one, although not in all necessary areas.) I wrote my ITA article this week on the absurd upheaval in the staff, which you can read when it's posted sometime Tuesday, and I don't want to steal their thunder too much. At any rate I'm not duplicating more than one or two things, so you'll have to read it to get the whole picture. I'm getting my MBA, and we call that "marketing." According to the marketing textbook, everything is marketing.
Suffice it to say, however, I think somebody, somewhere, made a really stupid decision in firing Jim Reid and Jeff Hanson. I'll come out and say it: Hanson was almost certainly the best position coach on staff, and if not the best, top three, easy. (Consideration must be given to Vincent Brown, and perhaps Bill Lazor's quarterback work; remember we're talking about the guy who squeezed a remarkable amount of talent out of Marc Verica, before you scoff.)
It has the pawprints of outside meddling all over it. It might be a disgruntled fat-cat donor who doesn't know shit except for "Duke, 42 points" and is still butthurt about that. It might be Jon Oliver, who can usually be seen during games, standing, for some reason, on the sideline, like a sunspectacled watchdog. It might be Craig Littlepage, who showed his lack of confidence in Al Groh by making head coach decisions for him. (Such as sending Peter Lalich packing, a decision which I still say was not his to make. Such as firing Mike Groh as OC - admittedly necessary - and bringing in Gregg Brandon and telling Al Groh to shove a square peg into a round hole or else.) If they follow that pattern, they'll probably find some dude who runs a 3-3-5 defense.
One hopes, at least, that whatever forces out there fired Jim Reid, already had a replacement idea halfway locked up. At the moment I'm not especially interested in a search of my own to evaluate replacements. Having been made to look a fool by expecting common-sense changes, and being presented with evidence of erratic and unpredictable decision-making by the athletic department, I'm not especially confident I'll get it right, and I'm not especially confident they will either. Of course the top two names for now are Jon Tenuta and Randy Shannon, because they're well-known. Shannon is probably not one of the odds-on favorites; Tenuta may be, but he's sort of coaching NC State in a bowl game that doesn't take place til New Year's Eve. (Just to fuck with people maybe we should get on a Tennessee message board with the rumor that Jon Gruden is our pick.)
Obviously, waiting almost 30 days may not be a good idea; Reid and Hanson recruited several members of this recruiting class, and the snakes are in the grass as we speak trying to pull them to State College and Chapel Hill and College Park and Blacksburg and Buddha knows where else. There are lots of bridges to be rebuilt here, and a few decommitments and/or transfers are to be expected.
********************************************************
-- Why, speaking of transfers, the first one of the offseason hit the bricks this weekend, and it's somewhat surprisingly Mike Rocco. And he had some things to say on the way out. Things he probably shouldn't have said, because dirty laundry stays in house. It's bad enough the program looks like it's run by bumbling fools, going 4-8 and then firing the wrong coaches, but Rocco's comments didn't help.
That said, it's certainly more defensible than Jared Green's parting shots, which were easily exposed as flat lies. And Rocco sort of clarified a few things thought to be true and now more strongly thought to be true. People wondering if Bill Lazor and Mike London are quite on the same page when it comes to the QB rotation? "'In the Penn State game, Mike fumbled a snap and, the next series, totally unbeknownst to anybody, London made a decision to put Phillip Sims in. And nobody knew about it. Mike didn't know about it. The offensive coordinator didn't know about it."
Maybe the offensive coordinator should know about it. Rocco also flat-out confirmed what a lot of us had been thinking: he plays better when his leash is longer. Shorten the leash and he ties it into a noose, didn't I say something like that a little while back?
At any rate, the bad thing about Rocco's transfer is that it takes away our security blanket at quarterback. Phillip Sims hasn't made any moves to seize the job, David Watford redshirted, Greyson Lambert has never taken a college snap, and neither has Matt Johns. The competition is likely to be wide open. The good thing about Rocco's transfer, though, is that it takes away our security blanket. London earns a D+ for quarterback management so far, and he might well have been tempted to put Rocco in next season at the slightest sign of shakiness by whoever won the competition (assuming it wasn't Rocco.) At some point, London is going to have to learn to pick a winner of the derby before the season starts, and stick with him all season. If Rocco's public comment about being jerked in and out of the lineup drives home that point, it'll have been worth it.
-- The coaching change wasn't even the first thing to set everyone on edge this weekend. Some guy at some local TV station decided to start the old UVA-and-GT-to-the-Big-Ten rumor, and of course wound up with egg on his face when it didn't come true. Lemme give you a hint about conference realignment: big moves like that will never be broken by local TV stations unless they're also broken by like twenty other outlets. Newspaper reporters are still more plugged in than local TV hacks. Doug Doughty was the first guy that I saw with the Maryland news.
I don't want to be in the Big Ten, of course, but a small part of me was still hoping that this Kevin Jones guy somehow had a dead-on source that nobody else had, if only because that's the same part of me that rips off a scab even though I know damn well it'll bleed. I don't think any of UVA's various sports will prosper in the B1G, any more than they do in the ACC, but at least I could stop chewing my nails over the ACC's fate.
-- The ACC looks like its in trouble this bowl season, as usual, and this year you can blame, in part, UNC and Miami. Particularly UNC, who should be playing in the ex-Tangerine Bowl against Rutgers, instead of VT. That would've bumped everyone down to more manageable matchups; instead, most teams in the ACC are fighting above their weight class, and it's going to hurt. At least the ACC will win its BCS matchup. Or it should, anyway. You might now see the problem with a threshold for the non-BCS teams to earn automatic bids. Did the voters objectively come to the conclusion that Northern Illinois is really and truly slotted where they should be? Or did they decide to play God and put NIU into the BCS on purpose? Judging by the MAC CG announcers' giddy proclamations that Kent State could crash the BCS with a win, and thinly veiled disappointment that they didn't get it done, I'm guessing the latter. Nor do I particularly think it's a coincidence that both BCS polls ranked NIU exactly 16th. (Edit: My theory may be rather undermined by the fact that I voted NIU 16th in the Blogpoll, in a system, remember, that blindly ranks resume games against each other without me knowing who played them. So I am less suspicious than I was. But then, like the pollsters, I also put Oklahoma ahead of them. And why the pollsters think Boise is #15 is an eternal mystery, except that they're simply used to having them on the ballot.)
Thursday, November 22, 2012
game preview: Virginia Tech
Date/Time: Saturday, November 24; 12:00
TV: ESPNUVA
Record against the Hokies: 37-51-5
Last game: VT 38, UVA 0; 11/26/11, Charlottesville
Last week: UNC 37, UVA 13; VT 30, BC 23
Injury report: (pending)
In three days football season will be over. Therefore nothing else is at stake, except for one thing: Screw these guys.
-- UVA run offense vs. VT run defense
Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 152 carries, 713 yards, 4.7 avg., 5 TDs
Perry Jones: 130 carries, 445 yards, 3.4 avg., 2 TDs
UVA offense:
137.45 yards/game, 3.81 yards/attempt
93rd of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)
VT defense:
149.64 yards/game, 3.86 yards/attempt
40th of 124 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)
Let's start off with this right now: There is very little that's logical or rational about VT's performance against the run. UNC absolutely gashed them. OK, that happens. Gio Bernard is good. Pittsburgh also gashed them. That does not happen. They held FSU to -15 yards on 25 carries (non-sack-adjusted) and had a similarly good performance against Duke, and turned around a week after the FSU game and let Boston College move the ball on them. That's "118th in the country with 2.8 yards a carry" Boston College.
Tech has very little rotation of their linebackers, unlike in previous years, with only Ronny Vandyke getting much time off the bench. It's not a deep group, but Jack Tyler has emerged as a very solid player, and can make plays nearly anywhere on the field, including behind the line. Bruce Taylor is also solid, and has been around a long time. Up front, the best player on the line is DT Derrick Hopkins. Hopkins is huge and strong, and exactly the kind of player that gives UVA quite a bit of trouble, much like Sylvester Williams last week. Bill Lazor would be well advised not to run at him. On running downs, Corey Marshall and James Gayle man the ends, and both are big run-stoppers, although Marshall hasn't been especially effective.
If UVA can get a hat on Alonzo Tweedy, they'll go places. Tweedy plays outside linebacker and weighs a paltry 193 pounds. Naturally, with that kind of size, he's got speed, but that's the direction UVA will want to run. Tweedy probably won't have much trouble dealing with it if Perry Jones dances too much, but he won't be able to handle any pulling guards or any aspect of a power running game.
Because of Hopkins, and because Tech can go pretty large on the defensive line and rotate defensive tackles effectively, I don't expect UVA to be able to line it up and run right at 'em. But they can pull off a worthwhile running game with the right playcalls; namely, finding a way to get to the edges with momentum. I like pitchouts for this purpose, and off-tackle sweeps. This would be a good day to not set off my pet peeve, which is wide running plays to the short side of the field. I don't see Jones being too effective in a basic running game; he hasn't really been all season, with Parks being the clear best option. If the Hoos can get Parks on the edge, running downhill, they'll move the ball. If not, it'll be a long day.
-- UVA pass offense vs. VT pass defense
Quarterbacks:
Mike Rocco: 147/237, 62.0%; 1,740 yards, 12 TDs, 9 INTs; 7.34 yards/attempt
Phillip Sims: 111/196, 56.6%; 1,253 yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs; 6.39 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Perry Jones: 46 rec., 379 yards, 0 TDs
Darius Jennings: 45 rec., 545 yards, 5 TDs
UVA offense:
275.4 yards/game, 6.9 yards/attempt
82nd of 124 (national), 10th of 12 (ACC)
VT defense:
206.5 yards/game, 6.6 yards/attempt
33rd of 124 (national), 2nd of 12 (ACC)
There's an inconsistency of a different kind here. Virginia Tech is actually difficult to pass on. Usually. They're allowing a completion percentage of just 51.3%, which is just outside top five in the country. That's not against schmo quarterbacks, either; Bryn Renner, Sean Renfree, and Tajh Boyd all had trouble moving the ball.
I would feel better if we had a truly mobile quarterback. Boyd didn't have a great day, but the top two passing days Tech has allowed are to E.J. Manuel and Cincy's Munchie Legaux. Legaux is inaccurate as hell, but rolled up nearly 400 passing yards on Tech's defense. The Hokies gamble, and it burns them if the quarterback scrambles. They make it hard to complete passes, but will also break down and allow a big play.
That gambling mentality is perfectly embodied in CB Antone Exum, who's got 15 PBUs and three picks (and flaps his mouth incessantly whenever he racks up another one of each), but also is prone to allowing big plays and isn't a great cover corner. He makes his living baiting QBs into throwing at him and then using his size to make a play on the ball. Kyle Fuller is better on coverage and doesn't get beat as often, but doesn't pile up the flashy plays. Much steadier.
At free safety, Detrick Bonner is good in pass coverage, but the Hokies will miss Michael Cole, who's likely to miss the game with the neck injury (no, not the paralyzing kind) suffered against Florida State. Kyshoen Jarrett plays "rover" which is Bud Foster's fancy-pants name for a strong safety, and does so in a run-stopping role. Without Cole there is no real depth at safety besides those two. Desmond Frye is a true freshman and very lightly used, more of a special teams player, and Jeron Gouveia-Winslow is a senior that's never been able to hold onto a starting role. Gouveia-Winslow is more of a liability than anything, so Tech will have to run with Jarrett and Bonner, and depend on their corners to hold it down in man coverage. Tech's linebackers are not pass defenders.
Tech has the kind of out-of-everywhere pass rush that gives UVA fits. Pass rush specialist Tyrel Wilson, DT Luther Maddy, and DE James Gayle all have four-plus sacks, and Tech likes to blitz Bruce Taylor as well, who has four sacks of his own. None are especially terrifying on their own, but you can't focus attention in any one place or you'll pay for it.
It will be worth testing VT deep early to see if we can make it click. A stop-and-go route with a pump fake on Exum's side would be the way to go. But let's be warned, too: Exum is exactly the kind of cornerback that can really burn Mike Rocco. He's a big guy for a cornerback, too (224 pounds) with good athleticism, and one of the biggest worries should be Rocco tossing a pick-six his way. Get behind Exum, though, and you're in good shape if you connect. Fuller will likely do a solid job holding down his side, and UVA's passing game is likely to work best when connecting with someone like Jake McGee or E.J. Scott as a third receiver. And yes, expect a full dose of the platoon again.
-- VT run offense vs. UVA run defense
Top backs:
Logan Thomas: 137 carries, 442 yards, 3.2 avg., 8 TDs
J.C. Coleman: 89 carries, 450 yards, 5.1 avg., 2 TDs
VT offense:
156.27 yards/game, 4.11 yards/attempt
74th of 124 (national), 6th of 12 (ACC)
UVA defense:
142.27 yards/game, 4.13 yards/attempt
67th of 124 (national), 8th of 12 (ACC)
This is really not an effective rushing attack. Don't be too taken in by J.C. Coleman's 5.1 ypc average; it drops a full yard when you take out the 86-yarder he broke against Duke, one of the worst run defenses in the conference. Coleman is a good running back, but he's simply been swarmed most of the season because VT is starting to feel the effects of poor O-line recruiting.
That 86-yard run, in fact, is Coleman's only run longer than 20 yards this season. Partially that's due to the splitting of carries; David Wilson isn't walking through that door, and the Hokies have turned to a rotation that includes Tony Gregory and Michael Holmes. The ineffective run-blocking, however, has made it awfully hard to distinguish among the three.
Of course, Logan Thomas is also an option; in fact, their primary one. Tech runs a lot of read-option, and Thomas has a propensity to keep on that play. He's got that tight-end size that makes him hard to bring down, but like the running backs, if you swarm, you win. Defending the read option will be the primary wrinkle that UVA has not yet seen this season, and if Billy Schautz can be healthy and ready to go, it'll be a big help in that department because defensive end positioning is one of the major keys to both running and defending the read option.
Otherwise, UVA should not fear the Hokie run game. We flat-out have a better defensive line than they have an O-line; not to the levels of domination that we saw against NC State, but the Hoos should be able to win most of the battles. Not to mention Marcus Davis's Superman blocking skills.
-- VT pass offense vs. UVA pass defense
Quarterback:
Logan Thomas: 187/352, 53.1%; 2,654, 16 TDs, 14 INTs; 7.54 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Marcus Davis: 43 rec., 858 yards, 5 TDs
Corey Fuller: 38 rec., 743 yards, 5 TDs
VT offense:
243.6 yards/game, 7.5 yards/attempt
60th of 124 (national), 6th of 12 (ACC)
UVA defense:
215.6 yards/game, 6.6 yards/attempt
37th of 124 (national), 3rd of 12 (ACC)
Chances are, by now, you've formed your opinion of Logan Thomas as a quarterback. And chances are that opinion is that he'd make a fine tight end. You're probably right. Thomas can move the ball, and is, in fact, dangerous because he can do it in big chunks. But those are interspersed among stretches of inaccuracy and just plain bad decision-making.
When he's on his game, the Hokies are very dangerous. Marcus Davis and Corey Fuller make for a very, very good pair of receivers that can get deep and get Tech down the field in a hurry. Both have excellent size for receivers, particularly Davis at 6'4", 232. (Seriously, if that dude would ever block he might be good at it just because of that.) Those two are Thomas's primary targets, and he leans on them heavily. Tech's offense depends on them getting open downfield; they do it well.
Other than that, they'll use Dyrell Roberts, but mainly as a possession receiver, and Demetri Knowles and TE Ryan Malleck get occasional looks. Tech hardly bothers with the running backs; maybe twice a game. The story here is Davis and Fuller.
Which leads me to something you probably don't want to hear: the way to win this matchup is to play that soft man-coverage that so infuriated people against UNC. Let the safeties focus on watching the deep routes, and try and force Logan Thomas to dink and dunk his way downfield. Bryn Renner is adept at that; Logan Thomas isn't. Sooner or later, Thomas will make a mistake if you make him get yards 7 at a time.
At some point, maybe a couple some points, I expect things will break down. Thomas knows how to create a big play and frustratingly can keep plays alive with his feet. The key is to limit that, and try and get some turnovers. Thomas has thrown 10 TDs and 2 picks in Tech's wins; 6 TDs and 12 picks in their losses.
-- Outlook
The big picture is that Tech's defense is good, if not the smothering juggernaut it has been in the past, and their offense is precisely why they need this win to get bowl eligible. I didn't really want that latter situation; we didn't need to give them any extra reason to get up for the game. But the fact is they do need this win, or they don't go bowling. That's a far cry from the Tech of the past decade and gives us one of our best chances at a win in years.
It's a question, then, of which teams show up. The fact that it's at home is a huge plus for Tech; all their losses but one have been on the road, and that one was Florida State and they gave FSU all they could handle. UVA was dominant against NC State and played awfully well against Miami, too (mostly) and then turned around and fell flat on their faces on the big Thursday night stage. Special teams, obviously, are going to be the same dealbreaker they have been all season. Tech will be up for this game; if UVA is not, they'll get their doors blown off again. If not, it'll be a major, major dogfight.
-- Prediction summary:
-- Tech is held to less than 70 yards rushing.
-- Logan Thomas completes at least one pass of 50+ yards.
-- Minus the largest play, Thomas's per-completion average falls well shy of his 14.2 average on the season.
-- Perry Jones gets five or six pass catches (or more) but is totally ineffective carrying the ball.
-- We lose, and a special teams play is easily pointed to as a major culprit.
Final score: VT 17, UVA 14
-- Rest of the ACC:
Georgia Tech at Georgia, 12:00: Clean, old-fashioned hate.
Miami at Duke, 12:30: Stripped of any meaning when Miami self-banned again.
Boston College at NC State, 3:00: Stripped of any meaning when BC started blowing chunks.
Maryland at North Carolina, 3:00: Somebody will be left grumbling about basketball season.
Florida State vs. Florida, 3:30: UF doesn't have a great offense, and with the game in Tallahassee, the ACC has a chance to score a nice upset.
Wake Forest vs. Vanderbilt, 3:30: Wake is also trying to get bowl-eligible.
Clemson vs. South Carolina, 7:00: A little bit of luck and the ACC could get a clean sweep against the SEC.
Friday, November 16, 2012
trampled underfoot
If you're the bright-side type, here's the nice thing about what happened last night: we avoided the full UVA treatment from this season. The way things go, the only proper UVA course of events for 2012 would've been to set up the Bowl Eligibility Bowl, with the Hoos taking a three-game win streak into Blacksburg, and then lose by 10 with the Hokies returning a punt and a kickoff for touchdowns.
Oh, we'll still lose, probably in the stupidest way possible, but at least it won't matter. (Again the bright side of a shitty situation: when the losing streak is this long, the next one sucks for a day and then it's just the status quo again.) Yes, I'd rather have won obviously, but now there's nothing to lose and everything to gain. If we beat the Hokies next week, woo times 1000. If we lose, oh well, the season ended on Thursday night anyway, and VT is 6-6 anyway so it's not like they're happy either.
This silver-lining stuff is real important, because the basketball team is 1-2 with a loss to a MAAC team and no particular way of knowing when it'll ever have a proper point guard, which is to say it's a long and dreary three months til lacrosse season. Looking ahead to next year's schedule doesn't offer a lot of optimism either. If our own team will be better, that's great, and it should be. The schedule still includes BYU, a road trip to Penn State, and a Ball State team that's not looking too shabby this year and will bring back a very good senior quarterback next season.
Oh well. Let's go bowling in scenic Blacksburg, Virginia.
Further stuff in brief:
-- I'll never criticize going for it on fourth and goal. I hated the playcall. Of course I did. After you've already been stuffed, doing it again is silly, and it shows a lack of familiarity with how good your O-line is as compared to their D-line. Better play call: same exact blocking scheme, but give the ball to your fastest guy and give him one tight end running interference and tell him to run as fast as he can toward the opposite pylon.
-- That playcall isn't why we lost, though. If UNC can drive 97 yards for a touchdown, they can probably get one from whatever short field our special teams would've handed them.
-- People are hella hating on the soft man our secondary was in, but I don't mind it. People always want AGGRESSIVENESS. If the corners - and ohbytheway we were missing one of our better ones - had been in press coverage then people would've been hella hating on our safeties instead, because they would've given up 70-yard touchdown throws. We have one of the better pass defenses in the country because our coaches haven't overloaded the very young safeties with too many reads.
-- Steve Greer gave up a very bad touchdown to Gio Bernard, but it's not because he's slow. It's because he made one of the worst reads of his career. The guy was streaking out of the backfield without the ball; where exactly did Greer think he was going?
-- Every time I think "oh good, the coaches have stopped using Perry Jones as the short-yardage hammer and look what it got us" they show a replay from behind the line and it turns out Kevin Parks was running through a hole the size of an elephant. They still shouldn't use Perry Jones as the short-yardage hammer, though. Our offense will improve next year in that regard simply because the coaches won't be tempted to do that.
-- One reason I hate the QB platoon is that nobody ever tells the announcers about it ahead of time and they're always baffled and then they start questioning Mike London's sanity for pulling the quarterback. I always want to grab them by the tie and go, dude, it's predetermined, now talk about something else. Yes, this is crazy, but not for the reason you keep saying.
-- I would say "Darius Jennings has GOT to catch that ball" but I think he knows that. One of the worst things about writing about and rooting for college football teams is that when that kind of thing happens, it ain't really fair to vent your frustration. Pros, yes, they're paid and they can be cut. For better or for worse, Jennings is our top receiver, we need him, we don't need him thinking he can't catch for shit, and nothing good can come from piling on. But damn, he has GOT to catch that ball.
Let's go over the predictions. First and most importantly, the streak is over: I finally picked a game correctly against the spread, and am now 1-7-3. And the Hoos might be 4-7, but my own record is 5-6. I'd be killing it if I'd jumped off the bloody bandwagon fast enough in October. As for the specific predictions:
-- UVA's backs average about 2.5 yards a carry. They had 3.65, which isn't close enough. We weren't, like, great at running the ball, but it wasn't too bad either. Playing better in other aspects of the game would've let that be good enough to win.
-- Jake McGee has a big game, with a per-catch average of about 15 yards and at least 3 receptions. Three catches for 46 yards is 15.3, and makes this my top prediction of the year.
-- UVA's quarterbacks combine for at least a 300-yard passing game. Total of 205 yards, and Sims managed just 55 of those. Rocco's interception masked an otherwise pretty solid and efficient game from him.
-- Giovani Bernard reverses his downward trend and averages about 5.5 yards a carry. In a very pleasant surprise, the Hoos stuffed Bernard. He wasn't easy to take down, but the best running performance of the day was Parks's, not Bernard's.
-- One of UNC's receivers has a six-catch day, or better. What happened was just about exactly what I had in mind: someone was going to go haywire because Bryn Renner was going to throw the ball effectively and our defense wasn't going to be very successful stopping everyone that UNC put on the line. I didn't really expect sixteen catches for Quinshad Davis, but still.
I'm 22-for-53 on the season now. Next week we can wrap up a dismalish performance all around; we'll see if I've watched enough Virginia Tech Hokie football to know what they'll be up to.
Oh, we'll still lose, probably in the stupidest way possible, but at least it won't matter. (Again the bright side of a shitty situation: when the losing streak is this long, the next one sucks for a day and then it's just the status quo again.) Yes, I'd rather have won obviously, but now there's nothing to lose and everything to gain. If we beat the Hokies next week, woo times 1000. If we lose, oh well, the season ended on Thursday night anyway, and VT is 6-6 anyway so it's not like they're happy either.
This silver-lining stuff is real important, because the basketball team is 1-2 with a loss to a MAAC team and no particular way of knowing when it'll ever have a proper point guard, which is to say it's a long and dreary three months til lacrosse season. Looking ahead to next year's schedule doesn't offer a lot of optimism either. If our own team will be better, that's great, and it should be. The schedule still includes BYU, a road trip to Penn State, and a Ball State team that's not looking too shabby this year and will bring back a very good senior quarterback next season.
Oh well. Let's go bowling in scenic Blacksburg, Virginia.
Further stuff in brief:
-- I'll never criticize going for it on fourth and goal. I hated the playcall. Of course I did. After you've already been stuffed, doing it again is silly, and it shows a lack of familiarity with how good your O-line is as compared to their D-line. Better play call: same exact blocking scheme, but give the ball to your fastest guy and give him one tight end running interference and tell him to run as fast as he can toward the opposite pylon.
-- That playcall isn't why we lost, though. If UNC can drive 97 yards for a touchdown, they can probably get one from whatever short field our special teams would've handed them.
-- People are hella hating on the soft man our secondary was in, but I don't mind it. People always want AGGRESSIVENESS. If the corners - and ohbytheway we were missing one of our better ones - had been in press coverage then people would've been hella hating on our safeties instead, because they would've given up 70-yard touchdown throws. We have one of the better pass defenses in the country because our coaches haven't overloaded the very young safeties with too many reads.
-- Steve Greer gave up a very bad touchdown to Gio Bernard, but it's not because he's slow. It's because he made one of the worst reads of his career. The guy was streaking out of the backfield without the ball; where exactly did Greer think he was going?
-- Every time I think "oh good, the coaches have stopped using Perry Jones as the short-yardage hammer and look what it got us" they show a replay from behind the line and it turns out Kevin Parks was running through a hole the size of an elephant. They still shouldn't use Perry Jones as the short-yardage hammer, though. Our offense will improve next year in that regard simply because the coaches won't be tempted to do that.
-- One reason I hate the QB platoon is that nobody ever tells the announcers about it ahead of time and they're always baffled and then they start questioning Mike London's sanity for pulling the quarterback. I always want to grab them by the tie and go, dude, it's predetermined, now talk about something else. Yes, this is crazy, but not for the reason you keep saying.
-- I would say "Darius Jennings has GOT to catch that ball" but I think he knows that. One of the worst things about writing about and rooting for college football teams is that when that kind of thing happens, it ain't really fair to vent your frustration. Pros, yes, they're paid and they can be cut. For better or for worse, Jennings is our top receiver, we need him, we don't need him thinking he can't catch for shit, and nothing good can come from piling on. But damn, he has GOT to catch that ball.
Let's go over the predictions. First and most importantly, the streak is over: I finally picked a game correctly against the spread, and am now 1-7-3. And the Hoos might be 4-7, but my own record is 5-6. I'd be killing it if I'd jumped off the bloody bandwagon fast enough in October. As for the specific predictions:
-- UVA's backs average about 2.5 yards a carry. They had 3.65, which isn't close enough. We weren't, like, great at running the ball, but it wasn't too bad either. Playing better in other aspects of the game would've let that be good enough to win.
-- Jake McGee has a big game, with a per-catch average of about 15 yards and at least 3 receptions. Three catches for 46 yards is 15.3, and makes this my top prediction of the year.
-- UVA's quarterbacks combine for at least a 300-yard passing game. Total of 205 yards, and Sims managed just 55 of those. Rocco's interception masked an otherwise pretty solid and efficient game from him.
-- Giovani Bernard reverses his downward trend and averages about 5.5 yards a carry. In a very pleasant surprise, the Hoos stuffed Bernard. He wasn't easy to take down, but the best running performance of the day was Parks's, not Bernard's.
-- One of UNC's receivers has a six-catch day, or better. What happened was just about exactly what I had in mind: someone was going to go haywire because Bryn Renner was going to throw the ball effectively and our defense wasn't going to be very successful stopping everyone that UNC put on the line. I didn't really expect sixteen catches for Quinshad Davis, but still.
I'm 22-for-53 on the season now. Next week we can wrap up a dismalish performance all around; we'll see if I've watched enough Virginia Tech Hokie football to know what they'll be up to.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
game preview: North Carolina
Date/Time: Thursday, November 15; 7:30
TV: ESPN
Record against the Heels: 54-58-4, depending on how you view their history of cheating
Last meeting: UNC 28, UVA 17; 9/17/11, Charlottesville
Last weekend: UVA 41, Miami 40; GT 68, UNC 50
Line: UNC by 3
Injury report:
Virginia -
OUT FOR SEASON
S Pablo Alvarez, DT Marco Jones, WR Mario Nixon
OUT
none
DOUBTFUL
CB Maurice Canady
QUESTIONABLE
None
PROBABLE
K Ian Frye, DE Billy Schautz, S Anthony Harris
North Carolina -
- doesn't like to play nice, and doesn't release injury reports. But they won't have their kicker, in case you're wondering.
RedemptionQuest continues as the Hoos try to salvage their season. Now UVA's two oldest rivals stand in the way of the postseason, and only the fact that this is at home and the VT game is in Blacksburg is keeping me from outright declaring this the toughest of the two remaining games. You know what's at stake here.
-- UVA run offense vs. UNC run defense
Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 140 carries, 660 yards, 4.7 avg., 5 TDs
Perry Jones: 114 carries, 395 yards, 3.5 avg., 2 TDs
UVA offense:
136.7 yards/game, 3.85 yards/attempt
88th of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)
UNC defense:
137.9 yards/game, 3.49 yards/attempt
25th of 124 (national), 3rd of 12 (ACC)
Before you ask, yes, UNC's own personal GT nightmare has a little bit of an effect on their numbers, to the tune of a little less than half a yard per carry. So what we're looking at really is one of the best run defenses we've seen all year.
UNC runs a 4-2-5, kinda. UVA has seen some 4-2-5's this season, with limited success against them, but trying to run on a 4-2-5 isn't that different than trying it against a basic 4-3. UNC employs a safety, Gene Robinson, in a position they call the Ram, and his primary responsibility is run defense. This way they can go into a nickel, if they like, without changing personnel, but when UVA shows run, Robinson is no more a safety than Laroy Reynolds.
The other neat difference is that Robinson, in playing further back than a regular linebacker, can see more of the field and thus can be used as a hedge against counters and other misdirection. That leaves the regular linebackers free to crash the first thing they see, instead of taking a split second to hesitate and diagnose. This they do quite well. UNC's two linebackers are a pair of playmakers, especially Kevin Reddick, who's got 14.5 TFL this season.
Not much relief on the D-line, either. DT Sylvester Williams is an absolute load. DE Kareem Martin is too. Between them they combine for 24.5 TFL, and in case you're wondering, only three teams in the country have more TFL than UNC.
Against Maryland we were facing statistically one of the best run defenses in the country, and we gashed 'em. I don't see that happening here. UNC has more playmakers than Maryland does; a lot more. And no, using the GT game for optimism is a bad idea, and I think you know why that is. Once you nullify Joe Vellano, you've more or less dealt with Maryland; UNC can bring them from every angle. With an offensive line that's still finding itself, I'm awfully pessimistic about this part of the game. It's such an ugly matchup that I'm getting a glass of rum, right now, to make the rest of the preview easier to write. The rest of this post is brought to you by Sailor Jerry.
-- UVA pass offense vs. UNC pass defense
Quarterbacks:
Michael Rocco: 136/221, 61.5%; 1,585 yards, 12 TDs, 8 INTs; 7.17 yards/attempt
Phillip Sims: 103/179, 57.5%; 1,203 yards, 8 TDs, 4 INTs; 6.72 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 42 rec., 521 yards, 4 TDs
Perry Jones: 41 rec., 341 yards, 0 TDs
UVA offense:
282.4 yards/game, 7.0 yards/attempt
80th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)
UNC defense:
254.2 yards/game, 7.2 yards/attempt
68th of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)
I don't like quarterback platoons. What do I like even less? Screwing around with what's working. And I hate to admit it but the platoon is working. It shouldn't, but it is. It shouldn't work because Rocco is a quarterback that needs to not be looking over his shoulder in order to produce. And Sims needs experience, not half-games, to learn to make the touch and timing throws. And yet here we are, 4-6 instead of 2-8.
UNC has a very good pass rush, and it's going to come from the interior because Sylvester Williams and Kevin Reddick (the linebacker) have 10.5 of UNC's 24 sacks. Kareem Martin will also be a problem. Pass rush aside, though, UNC can be thrown on. Lots of quarterbacks this year have had very good days against UNC's defense. I suspect we may see something similar to what we saw against Miami, with the middle available for use. UNC has better safeties than Miami does, but Gene Robinson isn't a pass defender and neither is linebacker Tommy Heffernan.
UNC's corners, Jabari Price and Tim Scott, are solid. But one thing that's been key to UVA's aerial assualt these past two games is that we're finally getting the contributions we've been expecting from all sides of the receiving corps. I think Jake McGee will be a matchup nightmare for UNC. Of the three linebacker-types on the field (Robinson, Reddick, Heffernan) the best-equipped to handle McGee is Reddick, who has by far the best combination of size and athleticism. As you might imagine this means opportunity. If this is executed well, UNC can be forced to pick a poison: risk McGee being open for big chunks of yardage, or take Reddick out of the run defense.
This is not to mention the effectiveness of the newfound three-headed monster at WR. What it means to the offense to have Dominique Terrell playing at a high level is now as plain as it could ever have been. Terrell, Jennings, and Tim Smith can give secondaries nightmares if they all play to the level they've each demonstrated. Then it's all on the quarterback just to get the ball there.
That's not really as easy as it might sound, given that Sims and Rocco have now alternated being the star of the game. It seems that one reason the platoon has worked is that both are prone to awful games, but both of them having the same bad game is less likely. And this game is going to be on them, because the run game won't serve much of a purpose except to hopefully keep the Heels honest.
-- UNC run offense vs. UVA run defense
Top backs:
Giovani Bernard: 142 carries, 1,008 yards, 7.1 avg., 11 TDs
A.J. Blue: 73 carries, 393 yards, 5.4 avg, 8 TDs
UNC offense:
201.0 yards/game, 5.19 yards/attempt
18th of 124 (national), 3rd of 12 (ACC)
UVA defense:
143.8 yards/game, 4.16 yards/attempt
66th of 124 (national), 8th of 12 (ACC)
Scary. Dude: this guy is averaging 7 yards a carry! We have a pretty good run defense. And I'm legitimately concerned what this guy Bernard is gonna do to it, especially if we break out the same tackling performance we did last Saturday. Yes, Duke Johnson is pretty good himself, but it wasn't just on him that the tackling effort was crummy.
UNC brings a complete set of weapons to the fight. Gio Bernard would be getting Heisman consideration if he hadn't missed a couple games with a knee injury. A 262-yard performance against Virginia Tech inflates his numbers a little bit, but still. There's your workhorse. A.J. Blue is the bulldozing short-yardage brute; at 6'2", 225, he's a very effective goal-line and fourth-down hammer. Romar Morris is the change-of-pace scatback. All three average better than five yards a carry.
There's a very solid offensive line, too. It's missing one piece: RT Brennan Williams went down in the Duke game and is lost for the season. The rest of the line is there, and it's good.
UVA has its work cut out for it. The matchup between lines will be huge. Either side has the capability to claim ownership of the trenches. The tackling must be much better than it was against Miami, or all is lost. I think if Heel fans are looking for Bernard to roll with 7 yards a carry, they'll be disappointed; he has, in fact, been trending gradually downwards ever since the VT game, to the point where GT's horrible defense actually held him under five yards a carry. If the Hoos can do that, it would neutralize a massive piece of UNC's attack. Not sure they will, but there has to be a correlation between losing Williams and the downward trend in Bernard's numbers, hasn't there?
-- UNC pass offense vs. UVA pass defense
Quarterback:
Bryn Renner: 219/347, 63.1%; 2,736 yards, 20 TDs, 7 INTs; 7.89 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Erik Highsmith: 46 rec., 511 yards, 2 TDs
Giovani Bernard: 38 rec., 411 yards, 4 TDs
UNC offense:
287.7 yards/game, 7.9 yards/attempt
33rd of 124 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)
UVA defense:
205.3 yards/game, 6.4 yards/attempt
29th of 124 (national), 2nd of 12 (ACC)
Quietly, sneakily, UVA has brought to bear one of the best pass defenses in the country. That's without a lot of sacks and with a super-young secondary. (I think that the lack of sacks has, in a perverse way, made our pass defense look better. Most teams' pass rush is good enough to get to the quarterback. Ours is not, but it's good enough to almost get there, and to bat down low-thrown passes. That means that most teams get their sacks included in their run defense stats, while our pass rush that almost gets there has those plays turn into incomplete passes instead.)
Anyway, that's the good news. The bad news is that our defense had no answer whatsoever for Larry Fedora's spread attack last year when he was employing it at Southern Miss. Maurice Canady is doubtful for this game, but let's hope that's premature the way Eli Harold was "out" last week and then was not. UVA will need to employ its full depth chart in the secondary, because Fedora is a spread coach and likes three-wide formations. Like UVA, he uses the full range of options in pass-catching. Gio Bernard gets a lot of receptions, and why wouldn't he? I would get that guy the ball too. Tight end Eric Ebron actually leads the team in receiving yards. Erik Highsmith, at 6'3", will be a difficult cover for UVA's smallish corners, as will Quinshad Davis (36 catches, 463 yards) at 6'4".
You'll recall that Southern Miss just killed us last year with shortish completions delivered with deadly accuracy. When Renner is really firing, he can do the same thing. But he's prone to the occasional off day, which he had in a loss to Wake Forest and a narrow win over Miami. Neither are good pass defenses.
Renner is a right-hander, but UVA might be well-advised to put pass rushers Ausar Walcott and Eli Harold on his throwing side, so as to avoid LT James Hurst and run them at Travis Bond instead, who's slid over from guard to fill Williams's spot at tackle. Don't expect much, though. UNC has only allowed 10 sacks all year. This one's on the secondary; they must be effective, or they'll allow UNC's offense to be multidimensional and exceedingly difficult to stop.
-- Outlook
They have a good run defense, Giovani Bernard, an efficient passing attack, and one of the better O-lines in the conference. Why are the Heels only 6-4, with losses to two of their instate rivals? Search me. I believe Heels fans would chalk it up to a defense that's not as good as it looks on paper, and perhaps the growing pains of learning a new system on both sides of the ball.
All I can go by is what my own eyes tell me, though. UNC looked pretty good in the VT game, and on paper, they're tough as well. Plus, by the looks of things, they didn't spend one second of their bye week prepping for Georgia Tech, and just went all-in on Virginia prep. I suspect the loss of placekicker Casey Barth will be worse on paper than in real life; replacement Thomas Moore has kicked in games before (most of last season) and isn't a disaster. UVA will have to force UNC into a worse game than their on-paper averages have shown this season, and play better than they did last week. It's a tough hill to climb.
-- Prediction summary
-- UVA's backs average about 2.5 yards a carry.
-- Jake McGee has a big game, with a per-catch average of about 15 yards and at least 3 receptions.
-- UVA's quarterbacks combine for at least a 300-yard passing game.
-- Giovani Bernard reverses his downward trend and averages about 5.5 yards a carry.
-- One of UNC's receivers has a six-catch day, or better.
Final score: UNC 31, UVA 21
-- Rest of the ACC
-- Florida State at Maryland, 12:00: Should be fun to see what happens when a freshman linebacker tries to throw against Florida State's defense. FSU clinches the Atlantic with a win.
-- Virginia Tech at Boston College, 12:30: I'm not sure whether to root for VT, in case it sets up the Bowl Eligibility Bowl, or against them for obviousness. Guess we'll know by late Thursday night.
-- Miami vs. South Florida, 3:00: The very real chance exists that the ACC could have just four bowl-eligible teams. To avoid that, let's hope the 5-5 Canes don't biff this one.
-- Duke at Georgia Tech, 3:30: Will greatly simplify the Coastal race.
-- Wake Forest at Notre Dame, 3:30: I don't know about you but I already consider this an in-conference game.
-- NC State at Clemson, 3:30: Clemson will know by game time whether or not they can win the Coastal, and probably they can't.
Monday, November 12, 2012
hurricane mike
ACC expansion is generally seen as a necessary evil, something we could do without and yet must have in order to prevent even worse outcomes. And yet it's not without its perks. We don't get to see much of Clemson or NC State any more, but 12 games a year have to be played against somebody. The somebody that has replaced traditional yet unremarkable (in the sense that nothing especially historic has ever happened against them, unless you had some kind of nostalgia for a decades-long losing streak to Clemson) opponents is Miami. It's a funny pairing. I don't remember particular details of most of the BCS championship games that've occurred since its inception, but I do remember quite a bit of the one Miami played in, against Ohio State, including where I was at the time (home from school for the holidays, at a friend's house playing poker) and never in my wildest dreams did it occur to me that the powerhouse Hurricanes would, in less than a decade, figure more strongly than almost any other team in UVA lore of the 21st century. "UVA owns Miami" would've exploded my mind at the time. They were on another plane back then.
That's a slightly misguided meme, actually, as we're only 5-4 against them since ACC expansion. They won the first two matchups (three if you count the mid-90s bowl game) and not that long ago, demolished the Hoos so badly (52-17) that the ripple effects from the game went backward two days in time and caused me to write this, likely the most accurate game preview I've ever penned.
But slightly misguided is still only slightly. UVA horned in on 70 years of Miami history by making their last game in their venerable old stadium a memorable one, if not exactly in the way the in-attendance Hurricane dignitaries hoped. And the Hoos now carry a three-year winning streak against Miami, utterly unthinkable in the glamour days of The U. The way in which the latest entry finished up eroded most of whatever personal resistance I had left to the "we own them" meme.
It's hard not to think that way when Miami is responsible for some of the best memories of the London era, to say nothing of one of the top three games of the Groh era. A UVA team that would eventually finish 1-7 in conference play dominated a top-25 Miami squad thanks in part to the best hit of John-Kevin Dolce's career. Mike Rocco hit Perry Jones between the numbers on a simple slant and the Miami defense forgot to be anywhere near the ball, leading to technically the longest touchdown throw of Rocco's career. And then......that.
"That" is what happened on Saturday. Rocco hit Darius Jennings and Jake McGee for near-identical touchdowns, making Miami the fourth victim of Rocco's heartbreaking ways. They fall in line behind Indiana, Penn State, and Florida State. Resilience is in this man's character, winning his countenance and mien. There's a reason I don't fall all over myself for scout-wowing spirals. The best thing in a quarterback is what Rocco has: the inability to enter a game behind on the scoreboard and conceive of the possibility of losing.
I told you on Thursday I wasn't ready to believe in fairy tales, and then the fairy tale fairy, who does not like my attitude, gave us a football game right from the Brothers Grimm. Now there's only two ways we can go from here: all the way up or all the way down. Which you think will happen depends on how long you've been a UVA fan and whether you've learned any lessons in that time.
Further items in brief.....
-- I guess we might as well get used to the quarterback platoon. I'm a pretty firm believer in not screwing with what's working (which is a big part of the reason I was all pro-Rocco to begin with.) The coaches did the right thing, however, in breaking the rotation at the end and sticking with the hot hand; Rocco's final drive marked the first time all game that either quarterback had had three series in a row, not counting the clock-killing handoff to finish off the first half.
-- Maybe it's because I'm an ACC fan that I didn't find the NFL's replacement refs to be so bad. These guys constantly find new and amusing ways to make court jesters of themselves, the latest being a personal foul on "unknown player." The safety was also a hideously bad call, and this particular crew must have a copy of the rulebook that omits any mention of facemask penalties.
-- Special teams continue to suck.
-- Dominique Terrell had a game and a half, did he not? This is the first game we've seen our wide receiver recruiting efforts really pay off in the form of a terrifying passing assault. Terrell, Darius Jennings, and Tim Smith all had huge catches and excellent games overall, supplemented nicely by McGee and E.J. Scott. There's a reason we were really excited to reel those guys in, and that was it.
-- Second best tweet of the day: Michael Phillips' suggestion that a coaching rotation be implemented in which Groh coaches October and London gets November. Undefeated season recipe right there. Londonvember is really gonna be a thing if we somehow manage to go bowling, and don't tell me you didn't miss Grohtober just a little bit during the Maryland and Wake games. Best tweet of the day: CavsCorner's Brad Franklin with "Seriously, Mike London is trolling Randy Edsall SOOOOOOO hard with these QBs."
-- Steve Greer is gonna be missed more than any other graduating senior next year.
-- Of all the possible outcomes this season could have generated, the following is the least likely when viewed from back in August: UVA and Virginia Tech have identical 4-6, 2-4 records in November. VT and Georgia Tech were considered the mainest challengers for the Coastal Division, and played to a 20-17 overtime battle in the first game of the season for each. Who'd've guessed that the close score meant they both suck, not that they're both awesome?
Prediction review....
-- UVA extends Miami's streak of allowing 200 rushing yards one more game. Somehow, we didn't manage this. Good Lord, we didn't even make it to 100 and still scored 41 points.
-- Mike Rocco runs for at least 25 yards. No, and in fact, he was sacked a couple times which took a big chunk out of the 17-yard gain he had early on.
-- For the second game in a row, Phillip Sims is the more effective passer. Not even remotely.
-- Duke Johnson breaks off at least one big run or YAC reception. Yes, thanks in part to one of the feeblest attempts at a tackle I've ever seen, even including punters. Demetrious Nicholson could not have looked sillier on Johnson's first-quarter scamper. Also, kick return DAMMIT.
That makes me 20-for-48, as well as 0-7-3 against the spread since the margin of victory was exactly the line. This was one crappy game for Vegas. They originally set the spread at Miami -3 and so much money flooded in on UVA that they swung the spread four points to UVA -1. So they obviously lost a ton of money on those bets and then had to refund all the ones that came on once the spread settled at -1. I'm also 4-6 straight up and probably never going to pick UVA to win again this season. Briar patch and all that.
Programming note: this is a shortened week thanks to the game on Thursday. Game preview runs on Wednesday with nothing scheduled for Thursday. Game reactions on Friday, which is normally a vacation day.
That's a slightly misguided meme, actually, as we're only 5-4 against them since ACC expansion. They won the first two matchups (three if you count the mid-90s bowl game) and not that long ago, demolished the Hoos so badly (52-17) that the ripple effects from the game went backward two days in time and caused me to write this, likely the most accurate game preview I've ever penned.
But slightly misguided is still only slightly. UVA horned in on 70 years of Miami history by making their last game in their venerable old stadium a memorable one, if not exactly in the way the in-attendance Hurricane dignitaries hoped. And the Hoos now carry a three-year winning streak against Miami, utterly unthinkable in the glamour days of The U. The way in which the latest entry finished up eroded most of whatever personal resistance I had left to the "we own them" meme.
It's hard not to think that way when Miami is responsible for some of the best memories of the London era, to say nothing of one of the top three games of the Groh era. A UVA team that would eventually finish 1-7 in conference play dominated a top-25 Miami squad thanks in part to the best hit of John-Kevin Dolce's career. Mike Rocco hit Perry Jones between the numbers on a simple slant and the Miami defense forgot to be anywhere near the ball, leading to technically the longest touchdown throw of Rocco's career. And then......that.
"That" is what happened on Saturday. Rocco hit Darius Jennings and Jake McGee for near-identical touchdowns, making Miami the fourth victim of Rocco's heartbreaking ways. They fall in line behind Indiana, Penn State, and Florida State. Resilience is in this man's character, winning his countenance and mien. There's a reason I don't fall all over myself for scout-wowing spirals. The best thing in a quarterback is what Rocco has: the inability to enter a game behind on the scoreboard and conceive of the possibility of losing.
I told you on Thursday I wasn't ready to believe in fairy tales, and then the fairy tale fairy, who does not like my attitude, gave us a football game right from the Brothers Grimm. Now there's only two ways we can go from here: all the way up or all the way down. Which you think will happen depends on how long you've been a UVA fan and whether you've learned any lessons in that time.
Further items in brief.....
-- I guess we might as well get used to the quarterback platoon. I'm a pretty firm believer in not screwing with what's working (which is a big part of the reason I was all pro-Rocco to begin with.) The coaches did the right thing, however, in breaking the rotation at the end and sticking with the hot hand; Rocco's final drive marked the first time all game that either quarterback had had three series in a row, not counting the clock-killing handoff to finish off the first half.
-- Maybe it's because I'm an ACC fan that I didn't find the NFL's replacement refs to be so bad. These guys constantly find new and amusing ways to make court jesters of themselves, the latest being a personal foul on "unknown player." The safety was also a hideously bad call, and this particular crew must have a copy of the rulebook that omits any mention of facemask penalties.
-- Special teams continue to suck.
-- Dominique Terrell had a game and a half, did he not? This is the first game we've seen our wide receiver recruiting efforts really pay off in the form of a terrifying passing assault. Terrell, Darius Jennings, and Tim Smith all had huge catches and excellent games overall, supplemented nicely by McGee and E.J. Scott. There's a reason we were really excited to reel those guys in, and that was it.
-- Second best tweet of the day: Michael Phillips' suggestion that a coaching rotation be implemented in which Groh coaches October and London gets November. Undefeated season recipe right there. Londonvember is really gonna be a thing if we somehow manage to go bowling, and don't tell me you didn't miss Grohtober just a little bit during the Maryland and Wake games. Best tweet of the day: CavsCorner's Brad Franklin with "Seriously, Mike London is trolling Randy Edsall SOOOOOOO hard with these QBs."
-- Steve Greer is gonna be missed more than any other graduating senior next year.
-- Of all the possible outcomes this season could have generated, the following is the least likely when viewed from back in August: UVA and Virginia Tech have identical 4-6, 2-4 records in November. VT and Georgia Tech were considered the mainest challengers for the Coastal Division, and played to a 20-17 overtime battle in the first game of the season for each. Who'd've guessed that the close score meant they both suck, not that they're both awesome?
Prediction review....
-- UVA extends Miami's streak of allowing 200 rushing yards one more game. Somehow, we didn't manage this. Good Lord, we didn't even make it to 100 and still scored 41 points.
-- Mike Rocco runs for at least 25 yards. No, and in fact, he was sacked a couple times which took a big chunk out of the 17-yard gain he had early on.
-- For the second game in a row, Phillip Sims is the more effective passer. Not even remotely.
-- Duke Johnson breaks off at least one big run or YAC reception. Yes, thanks in part to one of the feeblest attempts at a tackle I've ever seen, even including punters. Demetrious Nicholson could not have looked sillier on Johnson's first-quarter scamper. Also, kick return DAMMIT.
That makes me 20-for-48, as well as 0-7-3 against the spread since the margin of victory was exactly the line. This was one crappy game for Vegas. They originally set the spread at Miami -3 and so much money flooded in on UVA that they swung the spread four points to UVA -1. So they obviously lost a ton of money on those bets and then had to refund all the ones that came on once the spread settled at -1. I'm also 4-6 straight up and probably never going to pick UVA to win again this season. Briar patch and all that.
Programming note: this is a shortened week thanks to the game on Thursday. Game preview runs on Wednesday with nothing scheduled for Thursday. Game reactions on Friday, which is normally a vacation day.
Friday, November 9, 2012
game preview: Miami
Date/Time: Saturday, November 10; 12:00
TV: ABC
Record against the Canes: 4-5
Last meeting: UVA 28, Miami 21; 10/27/11, Miami, FL
Last weekend: UVA 33, NC State 6; Miami 30, VT 12
Line: UVA by 1
Injury report:
Virginia -
OUT FOR SEASON
S Pablo Alvarez, DT Marco Jones, WR Mario Nixon
OUT
DE Diamonte Bailey, DE Eli Harold
DOUBTFUL
None
QUESTIONABLE
K Ian Frye, DE Billy Schautz
PROBABLE
DT Chris Brathwaite, DT Vincent Croce
Miami -
OUT FOR SEASON
LB Ramon Buchanan, RB Eduardo Clements, OL Ben Jones, WR Malcolm Lewis, WR Robert Lockhart
OUT
DB Deon Bush
DOUBTFUL
LB Denzel Perryman
Redemption November continues.....hopefully. Last week's game was evidence the Hoos have a pulse, and maybe more. It was proof of what happens when things go right instead of all wrong. Now we'll see if it was a mirage or a trend. Miami comes to town fresh off a big win of their own, and they have their eyes on a division title.
-- UVA run offense vs. Miami run defense
Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 128 carries, 618 yards, 4.8 avg., 4 TDs
Perry Jones: 104 carries, 389 yards, 3.7 avg., 2 TDs
UVA offense:
141.44 yards/game, 3.95 yards/attempt
80th of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)
Miami defense:
246.22 yards/game, 5.13 yards/attempt
109th of 124 (national), 12th of 12 (ACC)
Those are some awful numbers there on the Miami side of things. They're no accident. It's not like a couple of really good teams got in there and screwed up the stats. Miami gave up only 96 yards to Boston College in their season opener, and then everyone else has been able to do whatever the shit they want. Nobody since has run for less than 200 yards. Even Bethune-Cookman.
They've had some key injuries this year. LB Ramon Buchanan suffered yet another knee injury, ending his season after two games. LB Denzel Perryman is their third-leading tackler, has been playing most of the year on a high ankle sprain, and will probably miss this one. That leaves the Canes awfully thin at linebacker. The only steady presence they've had all season is OLB Eddie Johnson, a redshirt freshman who makes his share of plays. The rest have been in and out of the lineup and not especially effective.
The UVA coaches have started to tilt the carries in favor of Kevin Parks, which is some proper sense-making because Parks has clearly been the more effective running back. A new wrinkle came online last week: Mike Rocco as a running QB. There might be something to exploit here; Collin Klein at K-State ran for 71 yards, and despite the rout of the Hokies, Logan Thomas racked up 124. Rocco won't be flirting with either number, but a couple QB draws appeared on the play sheet last week and they'll probably stay there this week.
I would expect Bill Lazor to look at those stats and start thinking about ways to extend that 200-yard streak. Scheming around Eddie Johnson and DE Shayon Green is probably the way to do it; these are Miami's top two tacklers, and it's decently impressive to see that out of a defensive end. If Miami lines them up on the same side it'll make life much easier. UVA ran for 248 yards against NC State's much better run defense last week, so I don't see why they can't hit 200 again this week.
-- UVA pass offense vs. Miami pass defense
Quarterbacks:
Phillip Sims: 92/165, 55.8%; 1,115 yards, 8 TDs, 4 INTs; 6.76 yards/attempt
Mike Rocco: 107/184, 58.2%; 1,285 yards, 8 TDs, 8 INTs; 6.98 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 35 rec., 464 yards, 2 TDs
Perry Jones: 34 rec., 304 yards, 0 TDs
UVA offense:
270.7 yards/game, 6.9 yards/attempt
83rd of 124 (national), 10th of 12 (ACC)
Miami defense:
244.2 yards/game, 8.1 yards/attempt
108th of 124 (national), 10th of 12 (ACC)
Also crazy underperformance in this aspect of the game. Unlike the run game, however, where Miami just bends over for any ol' body, you have to have a good, efficient passing game to take advantage of the Canes pass defense. They held Logan Thomas in check, and UNC's Bryn Renner too, the latter of which goes to show that even good quarterbacks can have a bad day against this defense.
Sometimes, though, they get torched. Boston College and NC State each passed for well over 400 yards. E.J. Manuel had a nice, efficient day. The problem is, we don't have the air game these teams do. You know I don't like the quarterback platoon, but Mike London has promised to stick with it at least for one more game, which probably means two series and switch, just like last week.
Injuries have hit the Miami secondary too, as promising freshman Deon Bush is out for this game. Miami will go with Kacy Rodgers in his stead. At cornerback, Ladarius Gunter is one of the bigger corners in the conference at 6'2", but neither he nor Brandon McGee is any threat to pick up any conference honors. Gunter has only broken up three passes this year; McGee has five, which is decent, but compare to Tre Nicholson's 11. And Bush was a better pass defender than Rodgers.
At defensive end, Anthony Chickillo was supposed to be one of the league's top pass-rushing threats, but he's only got two sacks on the season and is slowly giving up playing time to Jalen Grimble. Shayon Green is a run-stopping DE and will come out of the game on passing downs for Tyriq McCord, a freshman pass-rusher who the Canes really like. He's not a big guy at all, checking in at 236 pounds similarly to Eli Harold, and could give our underperforming tackles some trouble.
That said, Miami's pass rush isn't real scary overall. With just 10 sacks this year they're near the bottom of the standings in that regard. Very little threat is posed by the interior line; Chickillo and McCord and the occasional blitz are all that worry me, and we've dealt with better. If the bye week fixed a lot of problems, it's fair to hope the pass protection is included, as the line only gave up one sack to NC State's quality pass rush.
I don't know what the heck is going to go down with this rotation. I think it saps the effectiveness of both QBs, myself. But there's a reason I've been light on the Bill Lazor criticism this year. Lazor found a way to effectively manage Marc Verica and set him up for success, and Verica had more than a few limitations on his talent. I think he did a similarly good job against NC State, and you have to at least admit that right now, we've got two quarterbacks that do different things well. Maybe, just maybe, Lazor knows what the hell he's doing here. Just because I don't think it works great doesn't mean it can't, and Miami certainly has a defense ripe for exploitation. At worst, we'll see the old UVA that could move the ball but not score, and after that, just find the end zone, right?
-- Miami run offense vs. UVA run defense
Top backs:
Duke Johnson: 94 carries, 555 yards, 5.9 avg., 6 TDs
Mike James: 110 carries, 477 yards, 4.3 avg., 5 TDs
Miami offense:
130.11 yards/game, 4.37 yards/attempt
62nd of 124 (national), 6th of 12 (ACC)
UVA defense:
133.89 yards/game, 3.85 yards/attempt
48th of 124 (national), 5th of 12 (ACC)
Here is the challenge for UVA's defense. Its name is Duke Johnson. Johnson's health and durability are the only thing keeping Miami in the realm of mediocrity in the run game. (That and they have an inexplicably pass-heavy offense.) He's a small back with decent power and scary moves. Johnson and Mike James are a very solid big/small combination; James weighs 220 pounds and is a very capable workhorse.
Additionally, the Miami O-line is solid and has a lot of continuity. Four of them have started every game this season, and one-time super-recruit Seantrel Henderson has finally, to the relief of Miami fans, locked down the fifth spot at right tackle. He and left tackle Malcolm Bunche are simply enormous, giving Miami an advantage on the edge.
So it's a heck of a test. Florida State and Kansas State both shut down the Miami defense, but those are BCS teams. Of course, your weekly Georgia Tech game reminder goes here: we have a top-ten-in-the-country run defense without it. We'll have to get it done without some of our depth, though; Eli Harold will miss the game, and Billy Schautz is slowly working his way up the injury report, but I wouldn't test his ankle against those big-ass tackles; Henderson is 340 pounds and Bunche is 325.
Still, this is strength on strength. Of the four game areas, this one is where both teams are at their best. Whoever comes out on top here is most likely going to win this game. UVA must keep Duke Johnson in front and well-contained; space to operate is a bad thing and once he gets you sideways, he's got you beat. James I'm not worried about; the main concern is not giving up any big plays, which means a lot of gap discipline on Johnson and balancing the need to contain and corral with the need to avoid sitting on one's heels and waiting for him to make a move. I think at some point we'll get burned, as we don't have FSU's athletes.
-- Miami pass offense vs. UVA pass defense
Quarterback:
Stephen Morris: 192/339, 56.6%; 2,382 yards, 12 TDs, 7 INTs; 7.03 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Phillip Dorsett: 36 rec., 545 yards, 3 TDs
Rashawn Scott: 35 rec., 512 yards, 3 TDs
Miami offense:
277.4 yards/game, 7.0 yards/attempt
77th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)
UVA defense:
207.3 yards/game, 6.4 yards/attempt
30th of 124 (national), 2nd of 12 (ACC)
Remember how in the past I've been saying "everytime our opponent runs the ball it's a tiny little win for UVA"? This looks like the opposite. Miami has a pass offense that reminds me a lot of NC State. They pass more than they should, they spread the ball around, and heavily include the tight end and running backs. Differences: much better pass protection, a (slightly) worse quarterback, and more of a willingness to go deep.
Miami will probably test the defense with three-wide sets. They have good size on the outside with Rashawn Scott at 6'2" and Allen Hurns at 6'3". Slot receiver Phillip Dorset is the team leader in most categories, though. As for Morris, he's OK.... I guess. He started off the year much better than he's finishing it, and though he's thrown 12 touchdowns, five of them came in one game, against NC State.
The difficulty will be establishing the same kind of synergy that led to last week's dominant performance, and doing it against a much better offensive line. Miami has kept Morris clean this year, allowing only 12 sacks. Will the secondary look as good in coverage if the line isn't able to generate the same kind of pressure? If they can get to Morris as consistently as they got to Glennon, we'll have just as easy a day, but that's a tall order, particularly without Harold.
-- Outlook
You want to know the truth here? I have no idea what the hell about anything. Should I assume UVA is the team that stank up October, or the one that just went out last weekend and set up a traveling carnival in NC State's backfield? Can we call the special teams fixed-ish after one game? (Actually, I think I know that one. No.) Is optimism the result of seeing the world through the lens of the last game, which everyone always does? What about pessimism - that could be the same thing, given Miami's demolition of the Hokies last week, and they had a real shot at knocking off Florida State, too. Can their defense really be that bad?
The fairy tale is this: Challenged by their coaches and captains, UVA really is on a resurgence. They're on a mission to reclaim their season, and, being not yet mathematically eliminated from a bowl, they're moving toward one full speed. They'll meet hated rival Tech with both teams at 5-6, in a mini-playoff where the winner gets a bowl game and the loser goes home, and the game will be in hostile territory but UVA will come in fired up and on a hot streak, while Tech will be deflated and miserable from a terrible season and wishing they were anywhere else but a football field. That's the story. And it's lingering on the edges of plausibility, not because the Hoos beat NC State, but because of the dominating, trench-owning way they did it.
But I can't help my nature. I like evidence and realism. I'm optimistic, but rarely a believer in fairy tales until they start looking real. And this season I'm once bitten, twice shy; I talked a lot of optimism early on and was rewarded with uninspired play on offense and pathetic special teams. I'm keeping it sober until shown otherwise. Come on over here and toss me in that ol' briar patch again.
-- Prediction summary
-- UVA extends Miami's streak of allowing 200 rushing yards one more game.
-- Mike Rocco runs for at least 25 yards.
-- For the second game in a row, Phillip Sims is the more effective passer. (Subjective, I know, but I'll judge this one strictly.)
-- Duke Johnson breaks off at least one big run or YAC reception.
Final score: Miami 27, UVA 21
-- Rest of the ACC
Bye week: Duke
Florida State 28, Virginia Tech 22: This absolutely ensures that Tech doesn't go to a bowl game unless they beat UVA.
Georgia Tech at North Carolina, 12:30: GT really needs to win both this and the Duke game next week in order to go bowling, because their annual UGA game looms very large and unwinnable.
Wake Forest at NC State, 3:00: Winner is bowl-eligible. Loser might not get there, especially if it's Wake.
Maryland at Clemson, 3:30: The only way this one is interesting is if they revert back to playground rules and Tajh Boyd gets to be all-time QB.
Boston College vs. Notre Dame, 8:00: Who the hell put 9-0 ND vs. 2-7 BC in prime time???
Sunday, November 4, 2012
pack it in
So a lot of things went right yesterday. Finally. Not everything went right. But finally, enough went right to cover up the mistakes. It's amazing how you create your own breaks by playing well enough to earn them. And whatever things did go wrong, 33-6 lets you ignore them. Or at least rationalize them.
Of all the impressive things from yesterday, maybe the best of all is this: a coaching staff that kept a team interested in football even through a season-wrecking six-game losing streak. They stayed interested enough that just maybe the fans will stay interested too. On second thought, scratch the maybe; they played well enough that some people are actually talking about winning out.
That wouldn't be happening if the Hoos had squeaked through, Penn State-style. Not only did a 2-6 team upset a likely bowl-bound one, they won by enough that fans of the formerly 2-6 and now 3-6 team are thinking about a bowl game themselves. Huh? It's crazy. But maybe not that crazy.
That's how good the game really was. Not just good - maybe sustainably good. When you own the trenches, you can dictate a lot of things to a lot of teams. When a team is motivated and angry, it matters. When they're motivated and confident, it matters even more. In a twisted way, it's enough to piss you off even more about the last couple games, because, like, where could we be if that had gone like this?
As they say, though, it is what it is. The real beauty of this is that for a week, we're allowed our crazy thoughts. Maybe it's really stupid to think we could win out and scrape our way into a bowl. Maybe we shouldn't even be so damn excited about the thin possibility being 6-6 in the first place. At least for a week, though, even if it's crazy it's conceivable.
Further things in brief:
-- There's no other way to open up actual game analysis than with the defense. Of all the stats to emerge from this game, the best one is that they just about doubled their season sack total. All season we've been fretting that poor pass rushing would lead to coverage breakdowns and vice versa. Sometimes it's been true. On Saturday it was the opposite. The defensive line owned the trenches for every second they were on the field. Lemme repeat that, because it's the #1 reason that it's OK to dream about winning the next three games: The defensive line owned the trenches for every second they were on the field. And their job was made easier because the secondary played a very nice game, even inducing a coverage sack or two. Sacks were recorded by Jake Snyder, Mike Moore (who singlehandedly destroyed one NC State drive), Brent Urban, Will Hill, and two by Chris Brathwaite. Look at that list again; what do you notice about them? Give yourself a cookie if you noticed that two-thirds of the sacks belong to defensive tackles. Give yourself another one if you noticed how spread-out the action was. This adds up to total domination.
-- And then, after snagging only one interception all season, the secondary broke out with three. It's amazing how easy it can be to win a game when you're the one getting the takeaways. One each for Maurice Canady, Ant Harris, and Eli Harold, the latter being another example of that synergy between pressure and coverage. If there were coverage sacks, that was a pressure interception, and fine job on that play as well by Daquan Romero who was right on the ball and batted it to Harold.
-- Are the coaches slowly pulling back on the RB platoon? Kevin Parks got 25 carries to Perry Jones's 11, and was extremely effective carrying the water. Then again, Jones had six receptions, so it's not like he's being phased out.
-- Speaking of platoons. Stop it. You already know which position I mean. Mike Rocco was 12-for-23 and probably would've been better if he wasn't always coming into the game cold. Phillip Sims' 8-for-10 day could've been a lot bigger with all the snaps. I know Rocco came right in and directed a TD drive, but this doesn't work overall. It screws with the receivers, trying to adjust to two different ball styles. It screws with the quarterbacks, taking their heads in and out of the game. I know that both Rocco and Sims can make throws the other can't, but a better solution would be to teach Sims the throws he can't make.
-- Mike Glennon spent a lot of the day picking himself up off his ass, and the NC State O-line spent the whole day getting owned. But I nominate Wolfies' cornerback Dontae Johnson as the guy who'd most like to forget Saturday. Johnson was the guy burned on Tim Smith's long touchdown, Johnson was the guy that Perry Jones(!) blew up next to the sideline, and Johnson was one of the guys that Mike Rocco(!) juked off his soles to convert a 3rd-and-10 with his feet. Ouch.
-- I freaking love safeties. The eff-you-up-in-the-end-zone kind. Best play in football.
Prediction summary:
-- Phillip Sims completes either less than 50% or more than 60% of his passes. I wish he had thrown more so that it didn't look like I got this on a small-sample-size technicality, but he was 8-for-10.
-- UVA doesn't have a run play of more than 15 yards. Actually there were several. Hell, Rocco almost had one.
-- Sims is sacked at least three times. Sims was under more pressure than I'd have liked to see, but ultimately State only registered one sack. That's pretty good considering the Pack's solid pass rush.
-- Our running backs average at least half a yard per carry more than State's. By, like, so much.
-- At least twice during this game, something happens on special teams that makes me try and reach through the monitor to strangle someone. This one's a yes, and here's why. Number one was a missed field goal from 22 yards, which might've been prevented by taking a delay-of-game penalty. Even so you can't miss those. Can't. Number two was the punt where we got the ball back on a fumble. That was the telltale sign that this was one of those days where everything just went our way, but it didn't have to be such a long return if a couple people had paid attention to the ball. Ignoring the returner isn't exactly good fundamental football. And the punt was terrible too. Vozenilek had probably his worst punting day all season, in fact.
Another 3-for-5 puts me at 19-for-44, 43%. It's a good thing I'm not betting on our games, cause I'm 0-7-2 ATS and 4-5 straight up. Oh, how I hate being proven wrong. Oh please do not do that to me again. Please, Bre'r Fox, don't throw me in that ol' briar patch.
Of all the impressive things from yesterday, maybe the best of all is this: a coaching staff that kept a team interested in football even through a season-wrecking six-game losing streak. They stayed interested enough that just maybe the fans will stay interested too. On second thought, scratch the maybe; they played well enough that some people are actually talking about winning out.
That wouldn't be happening if the Hoos had squeaked through, Penn State-style. Not only did a 2-6 team upset a likely bowl-bound one, they won by enough that fans of the formerly 2-6 and now 3-6 team are thinking about a bowl game themselves. Huh? It's crazy. But maybe not that crazy.
That's how good the game really was. Not just good - maybe sustainably good. When you own the trenches, you can dictate a lot of things to a lot of teams. When a team is motivated and angry, it matters. When they're motivated and confident, it matters even more. In a twisted way, it's enough to piss you off even more about the last couple games, because, like, where could we be if that had gone like this?
As they say, though, it is what it is. The real beauty of this is that for a week, we're allowed our crazy thoughts. Maybe it's really stupid to think we could win out and scrape our way into a bowl. Maybe we shouldn't even be so damn excited about the thin possibility being 6-6 in the first place. At least for a week, though, even if it's crazy it's conceivable.
Further things in brief:
-- There's no other way to open up actual game analysis than with the defense. Of all the stats to emerge from this game, the best one is that they just about doubled their season sack total. All season we've been fretting that poor pass rushing would lead to coverage breakdowns and vice versa. Sometimes it's been true. On Saturday it was the opposite. The defensive line owned the trenches for every second they were on the field. Lemme repeat that, because it's the #1 reason that it's OK to dream about winning the next three games: The defensive line owned the trenches for every second they were on the field. And their job was made easier because the secondary played a very nice game, even inducing a coverage sack or two. Sacks were recorded by Jake Snyder, Mike Moore (who singlehandedly destroyed one NC State drive), Brent Urban, Will Hill, and two by Chris Brathwaite. Look at that list again; what do you notice about them? Give yourself a cookie if you noticed that two-thirds of the sacks belong to defensive tackles. Give yourself another one if you noticed how spread-out the action was. This adds up to total domination.
-- And then, after snagging only one interception all season, the secondary broke out with three. It's amazing how easy it can be to win a game when you're the one getting the takeaways. One each for Maurice Canady, Ant Harris, and Eli Harold, the latter being another example of that synergy between pressure and coverage. If there were coverage sacks, that was a pressure interception, and fine job on that play as well by Daquan Romero who was right on the ball and batted it to Harold.
-- Are the coaches slowly pulling back on the RB platoon? Kevin Parks got 25 carries to Perry Jones's 11, and was extremely effective carrying the water. Then again, Jones had six receptions, so it's not like he's being phased out.
-- Speaking of platoons. Stop it. You already know which position I mean. Mike Rocco was 12-for-23 and probably would've been better if he wasn't always coming into the game cold. Phillip Sims' 8-for-10 day could've been a lot bigger with all the snaps. I know Rocco came right in and directed a TD drive, but this doesn't work overall. It screws with the receivers, trying to adjust to two different ball styles. It screws with the quarterbacks, taking their heads in and out of the game. I know that both Rocco and Sims can make throws the other can't, but a better solution would be to teach Sims the throws he can't make.
-- Mike Glennon spent a lot of the day picking himself up off his ass, and the NC State O-line spent the whole day getting owned. But I nominate Wolfies' cornerback Dontae Johnson as the guy who'd most like to forget Saturday. Johnson was the guy burned on Tim Smith's long touchdown, Johnson was the guy that Perry Jones(!) blew up next to the sideline, and Johnson was one of the guys that Mike Rocco(!) juked off his soles to convert a 3rd-and-10 with his feet. Ouch.
-- I freaking love safeties. The eff-you-up-in-the-end-zone kind. Best play in football.
Prediction summary:
-- Phillip Sims completes either less than 50% or more than 60% of his passes. I wish he had thrown more so that it didn't look like I got this on a small-sample-size technicality, but he was 8-for-10.
-- UVA doesn't have a run play of more than 15 yards. Actually there were several. Hell, Rocco almost had one.
-- Sims is sacked at least three times. Sims was under more pressure than I'd have liked to see, but ultimately State only registered one sack. That's pretty good considering the Pack's solid pass rush.
-- Our running backs average at least half a yard per carry more than State's. By, like, so much.
-- At least twice during this game, something happens on special teams that makes me try and reach through the monitor to strangle someone. This one's a yes, and here's why. Number one was a missed field goal from 22 yards, which might've been prevented by taking a delay-of-game penalty. Even so you can't miss those. Can't. Number two was the punt where we got the ball back on a fumble. That was the telltale sign that this was one of those days where everything just went our way, but it didn't have to be such a long return if a couple people had paid attention to the ball. Ignoring the returner isn't exactly good fundamental football. And the punt was terrible too. Vozenilek had probably his worst punting day all season, in fact.
Another 3-for-5 puts me at 19-for-44, 43%. It's a good thing I'm not betting on our games, cause I'm 0-7-2 ATS and 4-5 straight up. Oh, how I hate being proven wrong. Oh please do not do that to me again. Please, Bre'r Fox, don't throw me in that ol' briar patch.
Friday, October 19, 2012
game preview: Wake Forest
Date/Time: Saturday, October 20; 12:30
TV: ACC Net., ESPN3
Record against the Deacons: 34-13
Last meeting: Wake 28, UVA 17; 11/8/08**, Winston-Salem
(**I never miss an opportunity to remind you that this is stupid and the fact that the ACC is doing nothing but exacerbating the situation is stupider. My last football season as a student was 2003. If you had told me that I would graduate, and then UVA would play Wake Forest twice between then and 2012, which is exactly what has happened, my jaw would've hit the floor. Are we in the same conference or what?)
Last weekend: Md. 27, UVA 20; Wake Forest bye
Line: UVA by 3.5
Opposing blog: Blogger So Dear
Injury report:
Virginia -
OUT FOR SEASON
S Pablo Alvarez, DT Marco Jones, WR Mario Nixon
OUT
DE Billy Schautz
DOUBTFUL
None
QUESTIONABLE
OT Morgan Moses
PROBABLE
DT Justin Renfrow, WR Tim Smith
Wake Forest -
(pending)
Such is my appreciation for you readers that I just spent the afternoon watching the Tigers sweep the Yankees and win their 11th American League pennant, and I have put off getting shitty drunk and dancing naked in the streets just so I could write you this post semi-on-time. (This is not to say that this is a sober post, mind you. A number of posts over the years have been brought to you by the juice of the barley or some other fine liquid intoxicant. This is one of them.) Anyway, the Hoos host Wake Forest in the final game before a badly-needed bye week. Silly me, I thought I could spend this bye week examining bowl possibilities.
-- UVA run offense vs. Wake run defense
Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 93 carries, 475 yards, 5.1 avg., 3 TDs
Perry Jones: 86 carries, 318 yards, 3.7 avg., 2 TDs
UVA offense:
139.57 yards/game, 4.04 yards/attempt
82nd of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)
Wake defense:
206.33 yards/game, 4.49 yards/attempt
84th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)
I'm no coach, but it sure looks like Kevin Parks is taking over - if he hasn't taken over - the primary tailback role here. The way things have gone at tailback this season, that's a good thing; Perry Jones has been weirdly inconsistent and indecisive, not at all what you'd expect after seeing him play last year. Parks, on the other hand, has seized the opportunity. He's been looking like the guy who changed the North Carolina high school record book to one page that just says KEVIN PARKS. To top it off, lately he even looks like a better pass-catcher than Perry has.
Wake suspended a host of players for the Maryland game two weeks ago, but it looks like they'll be back, with the exception of a couple more dunderheads who were suspended this week. By and large it won't affect anything, however. Wake isn't really good at defending the run regardless. They play a 3-4, but instead of asking their nose tackle (Nikita Whitlock) to gum up a bunch of space, they want him to use his excellent quickness to get into the backfield and force running backs outside, where the linebackers will theoretically go find them. The problem this year is that Whitlock has been slowed by a bum ankle. Normally his job is to line up right over the center and make the center guess which way he's going, but with that ankle, even if the center guesses wrong he can still recover and get a block on Whitlock. This has turned Wake's run defense problematic.
It even offers a slight glimmer of hope that UVA's biggest issue can be fixed: that of suddenly turning incompetent inside the 20 and being utterly unable to gain one yard when one yard is needed. Maybe, just maybe, if Whitlock's ankle is causing him problems, he can be blown off the ball, along with the rest of Wakes line - they use a very undersized group, especially for the 3-4.
Expect UVA to be able to at least move the ball. That hasn't been the problem; you're well aware of how we've infamously outgained basically everyone we've played and still gotten our asses beat. Another five yards a carry from Parks is a strong likelihood; the only I-A team that hasn't gashed Wake is Maryland, and Maryland is bringing a loaf of bread to a gunfight in this respect. The real question is whether or not we'll once again be a living embodiment of Zeno's paradox, and get halfway to the end zone on every play.
-- UVA pass offense vs. Wake pass defense
Quarterback:
Phillip Sims: 62/116, 53.4%; 747 yards, 6 TDs, 3 INTs; 6.44 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 26 rec., 370 yards, 1 TD
Perry Jones: 23 rec., 228 yards, 0 TDs
UVA offense:
283.6 yards/game, 7.1 yards/attempt
76th of 124 (national), 11th of 12 (ACC)
Wake defense:
216.0 yards/game, 7.2 yards/attempt
77th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)
Ayyy. If we're not already at the territory where if you have two quarterbacks you have none, we're moving rapidly toward it. It was probably a gracious and merciful God that caused Khalek Shepherd to be just slightly late in looking for that first-down pass from Mike Rocco last week, because if he'd caught it he'd probably have scored. And if he'd scored we might have won, and if Rocco had coolly and calmly driven UVA to a win after Phillip Sims spent most of the day floundering, the resulting quarterback controversy would have melted everyone's head.
This is the one area where a suspension might affect things; starting safety Duran Lowe is out. However, he's replaced by Kenny Okoro, who's well-experienced in his own right, although he's managed to watch his playing time steadily decrease since his freshman year.
It looks as though Tim Smith will finally get back on the field. Will it much matter? I kind of doubt it, as I expect Smith to be eased back into it. Unlike last week, Darius Jennings doesn't appear on the injury list, and should be at full speed, and E.J. Scott has of course been impressive. So I don't think there'll be a big rush to toss Smith right back into the fire, but I do expect him to be targeted a little bit early just to get him back into the groove.
However, Sims must have a good day against a highly unremarkable pass defense. Wake can be carved up by dinking down the field, which of course is Rocco's specialty and which Duke did almost perfectly to the Deacs. Sims is less consistently accurate and doesn't have the timing down right. He's proven a fast learner in certain areas - after obvious missed opportunities against Duke, he scrambled for a few yards against Maryland and at least one first down. As Sims goes this weekend, so goes the offense.
-- Wake run offense vs. UVA run defense
Top backs:
Josh Harris: 88 carries, 377 yards, 4.3 avg, 3 TDs
Deandre Martin: 57 carries, 279 yards, 4.9 avg., 5 TDs
Wake offense:
123.17 yards/game, 3.54 yards/attempt
99th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)
UVA defense:
154.43 yards/game, 4.36 yards/attempt
74th of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)
Last week's game finally freed me, for the most part, from having to always caveat the Georgia Tech game in an effort to point out why the run defense doesn't actually suck. The stats are now a lot more normal-looking and better reflective of the actual effort being put forth here.
Wake's Josh Harris continues to be a boom-or-bust kind of back, though he's done a better job of smoothing out his production spikes this season and being more consistent. The Deacs have also found a solid change of pace in redshirt freshman Deandre Martin, a big bruiser who's been used as a short-yardage back but is very capable of a workhorse role and is very hard to bring down in the open field.
Wake's offensive line is slowly coming together. In the preseason I called it one of the biggest disaster units in the whole conference. It's better than that, but it's still working toward respectability. In later games it's been improving after having been completely throttled by Florida State (no surprise there.)
However, I think you have to at least nod your head appreciatively at the work done by the UVA defensive line. It has missed Billy Schautz, but it's learned to cope without him, and Ausar Walcott and Eli Harold have been improving each game in his absence. Wake will absolutely need a running game, as we'll see in the next segment, so this could well be the deciding factor. If their backs can generate some life, and they've been able to do so in Wake's most recent games, they'll have an offense. If our front seven can get another inspired game from guys like Laroy Reynolds (who played very well against Maryland despite the nonsense with the PF penalty) and the front four can continue to do some quality unsung work, Wake will struggle mightily.
-- Wake pass offense vs. UVA pass defense
Quarterback:
Tanner Price: 98/188, 52.1%; 1225 yards, 7 TDs, 4 INTs; 6.52 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Michael Campanaro: 38 rec., 429 yards, 3 TDs
Terence Davis: 18 rec., 280 yards, 1 TD
Wake offense:
210.2 yards/game, 6.6 yards/attempt
91st of 124 (national), 12 of 12 (ACC)
UVA defense:
223.0 yards/game, 6.9 yards/attempt
58th of 124 (national), 5th of 12 (ACC)
The first thing, and probably second through seventh things, that you need to know is this: no Campanaro. Wake's leading (and only good) receiver has a broken hand and won't be playing.
That alters things immensely. Campanaro had potential to be a nightmare. Our safeties generally don't do well when assigned to do tricky things like help out the cornerbacks on one particular receiver. (I'm not being sarcastic. They're inexperienced, and get confused easily when their assignment is deep help on a Stefon Diggs type but the route patterns make it look like they should be doing something else. That's why Diggs was so damn wide open that one time Hills threw him a wobbly can of corn to escape big-time trouble. Our safety was playing it safe and hanging back, which given the circumstances I prefer that to the alternative. Anyway, the point is that "keep an eye on this side of the field and defend the deepest route" is a simple assignment; "keep an eye on this side of the field, help out your corner on this really dangerous receiver but also don't let anything go behind you" is trickier than it sounds.)
Without Campanaro, there is nobody at all that will strike fear in anyone. Starting TE Spencer Bishop has caught two passes all year. They don't use him. Campanaro has almost as many rushing attempts as their running backs have pass catches. They don't use them much. Tanner Price's completion percentage is so low partly because his receivers have a bad case of the dropsies. Demetrious Nicholson is still a work in progress, but you can damn sure bet he's good enough to cover Terence Davis. He and Brandon Terry comprise the biggest threats; Terry could sometimes be a problem because he's 6'5" and we got short DBs, but ultimately there's no need to overanalyze this: no Campanaro, no problem.
-- Outlook
I did promise on Monday that I would predict a loss regardless of what I wrote in the game preview. Call me stupid, or a homer, or a Lions fan (nobody is better than a Lions fan at rationalizing why our crappy football team will be good) but I can't do that. If the game is close, it could be a problem given the shattered wasteland that is our special teams. And Wake is coming off a bye week, probably with a whole bunch of tricks up their sleeve. But I'm going to hang my hat on the hopes that our run defense is as good as I think it is; that the Wake passing offense is as bad as it looks without their one legitimate receiving star; and that we'll finally be able to run the ball on every yard line between the goal lines, and not just from 20 to 20. If we lose this one I swear every game prediction from here on out will be for a loss of a billion to three.
Also, I'm always forgetting to mention this, but I'll be using the Tweeta during the game to spit out random stuff. Follow @MaizeNBlueWahoo for 140-character reactions to the game.
-- Prediction summary:
-- Five yards a carry for Kevin Parks.
-- Parks both catches the most passes, and has the most carries, of any UVA back. (Made easier, of course, if Perry Jones's concussion turns out to be a problem, but he wasn't on the injury report.)
-- Tim Smith, in his welcome-back party, does not catch many passes (three at most) but one is a big one.
-- Tanner Price completes fewer than 50% of his passes.
-- Brandon Terry, not Terence Davis, is Wake's leading receiver.
Final score: UVA 21, Wake 14
-- Rest of the ACC:
Virginia Tech @ Clemson, 12:00 - Somebody's division hopes are going to take a major hit.
Boston College @ Georgia Tech, 3:00 - The natives are restless in Atlanta; they'll go ballistic if they lose this one.
NC State @ Maryland, 3:30 - You'd've been slapped in the face if you suggested before the season that Maryland would lead their division and control their destiny in October.
North Carolina @ Duke, 7:00 - UNC has lost this game once since 1989, which is the last time it meant anything. Now it's for Duke's bowl eligibility - yikes.
Florida State @ Miami, 8:00 - Wouldn't be surprised to see this one overrun with Noles fans.
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