electricity shortage

Three games down without our Wooden candidate, three wins.  Not real pretty wins.  Kind of scrappy ones against teams probably not going to the tournament.  But, wins.

I'd say it's still unanswered, to what extent this team misses Justin Anderson.  There's no doubt they need him back.  But would those games still have been close and scruffy without him?  Anderson's absence isn't the reason the three-point shooters missed a whole bunch of open looks.  In the NC State and Wake games, they went 4-for-23, which is 17%.  It's not like they missed because Anderson wasn't on the floor, and it's small coincidence that the Pitt game had a more comfortable margin of victory and the Hoos shot 5-for-13, which is a very acceptable 38.5%.

On the other hand, would Anderson have had a better chance of hitting?  Or would the shot have been a more makeable one, a layup perhaps, if Anderson was in the game?  That'll never be answered.

The two Louisville games are exactly four weeks apart, so if Simba's a really fast healer, he'll be back for the second one.  Maybe it's the nagging paranoid in me, because that part of you never really goes away if you root for UVA, but the rest of the schedule seems booby-trapped.  FSU is actually the least of our concerns, I think.  Wake will get us at their place and no doubt they'll be awfully confident, seein's how they just almost beat us at ours.  VT is gonna be primed as well, though fortunately that's at home.  Syracuse is no easy place to win at.  And it was after Anderson went down that Louisville mounted a comeback; that one's a return road visit too.

At stake, besides tournament seeding and the chance to add a regular season title to the rafters, is avoiding bracketologist talk about whether UVA can be as legit as ever without Anderson.  The committee does take injuries into account, both positively and negatively.  If a guy misses time and then comes back, your losses during that time get a kinder eye.  If a guy won't be ready for the tournament, they penalize you.  Optimistically, I think Anderson will be back for the NCAAs, but you never know.  But if the winning streak continues, sans the team's most electric player, you can't ask for a better setup.

**************************************************

-- With about 47 seconds left, NC State fouled Brogdon; this was the very best of all possible outcomes.  Coaches aren't big on quick shots to try and get two-for-one on possessions at the end of a half (though this is a strategy mainly for the end of the first half; the second is too wild-cardy) so UVA was going to hold the ball as long as possible.  One likely outcome of that strategy is to not score and give NC State the chance to tie with a minimum of 12 seconds to work with.  Instead, UVA's best free-throw shooter got to head to the line with a chance to put UVA up two scores, and the Hoos were guaranteed another possession.

-- The announcers had this fixation on "free throw percentage in conference play."  I guess that's useful as a proxy for how you're shooting lately, but it's otherwise utterly nonsensical - it's not like you need to adjust free-throw shooting percentages for the quality of opponent.

-- How about Evan Nolte's drive and dish to Gill?  As with the Anderson miss against Duke, it felt like a game-turning play.  I think it's because Nolte is usually a bit less than assertive on offense, and is the player on the team who least resembles a smooth rim-driving point guard (and yes that includes Mike Tobey) so the sight of his bad-Hawaiian-shirt-wearing self making like Isiah Thomas was jarring enough to turn the game on its head.  And as it turned out, that was the last lead change of the game.

-- Center-court logos are trending in the obnoxiously huge direction, and never more so at NC State.  I know it's a classic old logo and all, but it is in fact the ugliest friggin' court in the whole country.  And since the whole midcourt line is almost completely obscured, it ought to be banned.

-- In case you've forgotten why everyone thinks Carolina media is the most shameless, shilling, and biased bunch of wretches in the whole country, enjoy this small passage from Stephen Schramm from the Fayetteville Observer:

The replays showed that Nolte had collided with N.C. State’s Caleb Martin. Much to Wolfpack coach Mark Gottfried’s dismay, the crew decided to call a flagrant foul on Martin.

Yeah, totally out of nowhere, I'm sure.  Much to Stephen Schramm's dismay, the cops decide he's at fault when a tree collides with his car.  The definition of a flagrant foul is "excessive and/or unnecessary contact" and plowing Nolte clearly qualifies.

-- Shifting gears to the Wake game: Last week I wrote about rewarding the big guy making the hustle play, and this week it happened again: Darion Atkins brick-walled a Wake defender trying to keep up with London Perrantes, and was rewarded by Perrantes with an easy layup.  The announcers did a nice job of pointing out the communication between Atkins and Perrantes on that play.

-- It's interesting that Tony didn't make an adjustment - or didn't appear to, anyway, though you never know what you miss - as Schnozz Mitoglou kept pounding away from the three-point line off of a simple pick-and-pop.  I think it's a philosophy thing - a gamble that a freshman on the road is less likely to keep making those than the ballhandler is to punish you for getting away from your hard hedge.

-- Malcolm's dunk.  MALCOLM'S.  DUNK.

-- As badly as Pitt and Wake shot free throws, I can't help but wonder if the students haven't figured out a distraction routine that actually works.

-- Much like with the Notre Dame game last year, the Hoos did a nice job of finding a tendency in the Pitt zone and attacking the bejeezus out of it.  And on one play, a different attack, but a really, really nice job by Isaiah Wilkins to set up an open shot.  Whether on purpose or just playing through the flow of the game, I don't know, but Wilkins did a great job of holding the ball just long enough to suck in the defense and then kick it back to the point, where Perrantes wasted no time finding the open shooter.  Pity Nolte missed the shot, but it was picture-perfect passing.

-- Does anyone else besides me think that Infiniti commercial is incredibly stupid?  Do people routinely make a habit of just blithely backing out the driveway and missing the BIG FKIN' YELLOW SCHOOL BUS rumbling down the road?  Are school buses difficult to see?  Is it hard to see a car coming down the totally empty parking lot lane?  The look on school bus lady's face is priceless: "Oh wow, if it hadn't been for those genius engineers at Infiniti, I would've gotten my two children messily killed in a school bus accident!"  Don't worry, honey: with observation skills like those, Junior and Juniorette will have their own permanent 6 x 3 plot any day now.

Probably like 1/3 of commercials on TV say the same thing: "Our customers are idiots.  If you're an idiot, you can be one of our customers too."

-- With the win over Pitt, UVA mathematically clinches a single bye in the ACC tournament, more than three weeks before it starts.

-- Yes, I read Myron Medcalf's moronic scribblings, and there's enough to say about that that it's worth a post all its own.  Wednesday night.

2014 season preview: NC State Wolfpack

Schedule:

8/30: Georgia Southern
9/6: Old Dominion
9/13: @ South Florida
9/20: Presbyterian
9/27: Florida State
10/4: @ Clemson
10/11: Boston College
10/18: @ Louisville
10/25: BYE
11/1: @ Syracuse
11/8: Georgia Tech
11/15: Wake Forest
11/22: BYE
11/29: @ North Carolina

Skip: Duke, Miami, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Louisiana Tech: W, 40-14
Richmond: W, 23-21
Clemson: L, 26-14
Central Michigan: W, 48-14
Wake Forest: L, 28-13
Syracuse: L, 24-10
Florida State: L, 49-17
North Carolina: L, 27-19
Duke: L, 38-20
Boston College: L, 38-21
East Carolina: L, 42-28
Maryland: L, 41-21

Record: 3-9 (0-8); 7th, Atlantic

Projected starters:

QB: Jacoby Brissett (rJr.)
RB: Shadrach Thornton (Jr.)
WR: Bryan Underwood (5Sr.)
WR: Jumichael Ramos (So.)
WR: Bo Hines (Fr.)
TE: David Grinnage (rSo.)
LT: Rob Crisp (5Sr.)
LG: Joe Thuney (rJr.)
C: Quinton Schooley (Jr.)
RG: Alex Barr (rJr.)
RT: Tyson Chandler (5Sr.)

DE: Art Norman (5Sr.)
DT: Thomas Teal (5Sr.)
DT: Monty Nelson (So.)
DE: Mike Rose (rJr.)
WLB: Brandon Pittman (Sr.)
MLB: Jerod Fernandez (rFr.)
CB: Jack Tocho (So.)
CB: Juston Burris (rJr.)
S: Tim Buckley (rJr.)
SS: Hakim Jones (rJr.)
FS: Jarvis Byrd (6Sr.)

K: Niklas Sade (Sr.)
P: Wil Baumann (Sr.)

(Italics indicate new starter.)

Coach: Dave Doeren (2nd season)

Media prediction: 5th, Atlantic

All-ACC:

2013 1st team: none
2013 2nd team: none
2013 3rd team: none
2013 HM: LB Robert Caldwell, K Niklas Sade
2014 preseason: none

(Italics indicate departed player.)

Thank goodness for NC State.  Dave Doeren's first year at the helm went not so great, and the Wolfpack shared the distinction of an ACC goose egg with UVA.  NC State's season went awfully similar to ours - win a few early and then watch in disbelief as the losing continues without end.  The challenge continues this season.  After a nonconference schedule that shouldn't be particularly hard, NC State opens the ACC season with FSU and Clemson.

-- Offense

The big deal with NC State this year, and the source of half their optimism, is new starting QB Jacoby Brissett.  Since transferring in from Florida after the 2012 season, Brissett has been halfway anointed as the 2014 starter.  As a Gator he did a passable job in limited time, but in Raleigh the job is his to sink or swim with.  ESPN figured the Pack to have the 4th-best QB situation in the conference, so the expectations are piled pretty high.

NC State will have its workhorse tailback Shadrach Thornton back on the team after a few run-ins with Doeren's doghouse this offseason.  Thornton has had a run-in or two with the law and can't afford to slip up again, or NC State will be left with a fairly unpalatable slate of options.  Thornton himself isn't flashy, but he proved capable of carrying the load last year; without him, the Pack would turn to Matt Dayes, who had his moments last year as a freshman, or the increasingly marginalized and uninspiring Tony Creecy.  Neither strike fear in opponents.

If there are any playmakers, they'll be found at receiver.  Bryan Underwood is a steady veteran presence at the top of the depth chart, who flashes some big-play ability at times.  Jumichael Ramos quietly had a strong season last year, as did Marquez Valdez-Scantling, both as true freshmen playing in a unit dominated by upperclassmen.  NC State also really likes what they see out of true freshman Bo Hines, who had a breakout performance in the Pack's spring game.

The good news for NC State on the line is that they return a full slate of starters; the bad news is, this line wasn't very good last year.  They were a revolving door against the pass rush, allowing nearly three sacks a game, and failing to open many holes in the run game.  Still, there's something to be said for a great deal of continuity.  Particularly at center, where Quinton Schooley didn't miss a single snap in 2013.  Left tackle Rob Crisp is a talented player, but has dealt with injuries his whole career.  NC State's O-line will definitely get a boost if Crisp can put together a full senior season.  Tyson Chandler has been a familiar presence at right tackle, entering his third season as a starter there.  Chandler is a massive road-grading presence at 345 pounds.  Alex Barr stepped in as the right guard starter in the third game of 2013 and didn't let go of the spot, and Joe Thuney is a versatile player who's seen time both inside and out along the line; he figures to be the left guard by default, barring any further shuffling.

We'll see how up to the task Brissett is; he's gotten a fair amount of hype so far.  Brissett is a big, linebacker-sized guy with decent mobility; he possesses most, if not all, of the necessary physical tools.  By himself he could be worth a few extra wins, if the production matches the hype.  The line needs to do a better job keeping him free of grass stains, but I like the continuity they have, and there's some playmaking potential among his receiving corps.

-- Defense

NC State had the worst run defense in the ACC last year, and were the only team to allow more than five yards a carry, so naturally, they switched to a base 4-2-5 nickel package this year.  Teams are starting to do more and more of this to combat the proliferation of passing spreads; NC State also has depth issues at linebacker, particularly with prospective MLB starter M.J. Salahuddin out likely for the year with a training camp injury.  The all-important Mike position now falls to redshirt freshman Jerod Fernandez.  Nobody expected to play that position has so much as a single college snap under their belts.  The outside, at least, has experience, with two seniors manning the weak-side spot in Brandon Pittman and Rodman Noel.  Pittman was a very steady presence last year, and Noel does have a few starts to his name as well.

Up front, NC State continues to have plenty of depth.  Thomas Teal is a playmaking defensive tackle, and Monty Nelson was a pleasant surprise in his freshman season last year as well.  T.Y. McGill also returns to give the Pack a solid three-man rotation in the middle.  Teal also has the versatility to play end.  NC State has at least one decent returning starter in Art Norman for the end; they'll lean on promoted reserve Mike Rose for the other side.  NC State's line put up good individual numbers, but it needs to improve on that five yard a carry number.

At safety, the Pack get Jarvis Byrd back for a sixth season after he suffered his third(!) career ACL tear last season.  Byrd was good enough way back in 2009 to play his way into the starting lineup as a true freshman, but over a five year career he's played in a grand total of 14 games, the result of all those popped ACLs and one quad injury.  Hakim Jones had a good debut as a starter last year, making 61 tackles from his strong safety position, intercepting two passes and breaking up eight more.  Jack Tocho stepped in at cornerback as a true freshman in 2013, when Byrd went down and Dontae Johnson was moved to safety to cover; Tocho also registered a pair of picks and outplayed his counterpart Juston Burris.  NC State's pass defense didn't benefit from a productive pass rush and still wasn't sitting at the bottom of the conference last year, so putting another DB on the field might not be the worst decision.

Still, the depth issues at linebacker are not a new problem; they've been going on for a while now, and I really like the individual production that NC State has gotten out of their D-line but the overall result was fairly hideous.  They do need to pick it up and get more pressure on quarterbacks, having failed to produce much in the way of sacks last year - just 20 as a team.  There's room for improvement, but like the O-line, the continuity is (mostly) there to help it happen.

-- Special teams

Niklas Sade is one of the better kickers in the conference and happens to be NC State's only returning player to get any votes in all-ACC voting last year.  Wil Baumann posted a 42.1 yard punting average last year.  Both these players made huge strides over 2012 and figure to give NC State a good kicking game in their senior seasons.

-- Outlook

The OOC slate is anything but scary; the only team that even closely resembles a big-time-ish program is South Florida - a 2-10 team last year.  It'll probably be ODU that actually provides the biggest test; the point is that NC State is highly likely to start the season 4-0.  They're equally likely to start the season 4-2, with the two hardest ACC games on the schedule out of the way early.  The question then becomes, can they find two wins in the next six games?  Probably can.  Last year's results offer plenty of reason to doubt, but I think it'd be underperforming and a failure to play to potential if NC State can't get back to the postseason this year.  NC State should wrap up bowl eligibility somewhere in the three-game November stretch of Cuse, GT, and Wake.

fun again

What a difference a year makes.  Or not even a full year, really, just the turn of the calendar.  The last one-third of 2013 was easily the most miserable four months in this blog's history - maybe in my history as a UVA fan.  The last time we had such a crap football season I was able to band-aid the pain with weekly speculation on new football coaches.  And even then we beat Maryland.  Basketball season was supposed to provide some relief, and it didn't (and furthermore sent off 2013 in pitiful style.)  It's cool that the soccer teams made it to the College Cup, but even that was disappointing since we had such high hopes for a national title and it's really hard to follow soccer when it's never on TV and whenever it was, we lost.  Yay Director's Cup points, but neither an ACC nor national title resulted from those spectacular seasons.

2014 made it all better.  For a start to a year, it's not bad.  Let's say that in the past, oh, two years or so, I've thought X times of shutting down the blog, moving on, maybe looking for a part-time thing elsewhere - then X/2 of those have been in the past three months.  Because it's no fun following a 2-10 futureless and aimless football team let alone writing about one, which forces you to be more involved than you wish you could be, and when you then think, OK, this sucks, but at least in the other major sport, we're on the verge of being a national power, and then they have a very NIT-worthy start to the season.....oh god, yuck.

Thank the baby angels for Tony Bennett.  The man looks at the Tennessee debacle and decided to remind us all he can still coach.  A simple adjustment on offense, which boiled down to "stop running around all over the place" and UVA is 3-0, coming off two straight humiliations of ACC rivals.  Confidence: restored.  I came away from the TV set yesterday thinking, man, I can't wait to write about that.  I was going to (FINALLY) finish up the team previews today, but they'll have to wait til Monday now.

The Hoos got a nice little schedule present in being able to take one trip to play two games, a rarity in college basketball.  Tomorrow they'll face Duke, and they'll have to deal with a psychological reversal from the Wake Forest game.  Wake was coming off a big win and UVA was still smarting from a nasty loss.  It'll be the other way around now, and you know with Duke, they'll be redoubling their efforts.  They fortunately won't have much time to stew on it, or practice on it, but it's Cameron, man.  UVA won't be able to just sneak in there.  I'm OK with that, of course.  You know how Duke is: any year they don't win the ACC title is a disappointment.  Having their undivided attention means they consider you a threat to that end, and isn't that how we want it?

Further notes in brief:

-- If Mark Gottfried wants improved defense out of his team, he might move Jordan Vandenberg to the bench in favor of Beejay Anya.  Doris Burke commented that Mike Tobey was much less effective in the second half - this is because Anya was assigned to him then, as Vandenberg proved to be a pylon.  Without Anya, UVA gets above 80 points, easy; he stuffed a couple potential transition buckets and shut down Tobey.

-- UVA could have scored zero points in the second half and still won.

-- Interior scoring is sustainable scoring.  Like I said after the Wake win.  When you go 3-for-13 from three, you don't win by 31.  Usually.  I like this much better than if we'd won by the same score but gone 10-for-13 from three instead.  That's not repeatable.  This is.

-- Burke's sarcastic comment that NC State might want to think about getting the ball to T.J. Warren more was in fact inadvertant high praise for the job Joe Harris et. al. were doing on defense against him.

-- People have been questioning Harris's impact on the team this year considering that his scoring is a bit down, to which I have two responses.  One, I did tell you it would be down.  Two, he certainly is not lacking for confidence, as evidenced by his three-pointer from the state line.

-- It's plain to see that Justin Anderson's athleticism changes the game in ways that don't show on the score sheet.  Like whatever the hell he did to save that one possession in the second half.  Much more than your usual out-of-bounds save.  It was similar to his impromptu reverse-oop jam last year; the guy just has incredible body control and even better instant decision-making.

-- Burke also commented that Tony Bennett wouldn't like it much if the shot clock were changed from 35 to 24 seconds.  Are you kidding?  We'd LOVE this.  UVA's average defensive possession length is 19.3 seconds; only six teams in the country have a longer one.  If the shot clock were changed, practically every opponent's shot would be a hurried one.  Yes, scoring would go up - but I'll bet UVA's opponents' scoring would go up a lot less than most.  UVA's efficiency would probably drastically improve, since it already takes a long time for anyone to find a weakness in the pack-line they can use to shoot against.

(For the record, I wouldn't really want to see the shot-clock changed, because I think the vast inexperience of the players as compared to the pros would result in a lot of sloppy basketball.  But selfishly, as long as Tony Bennett's our coach, please do change it.)

********************************************

I'd been planning to write the Wake Forest preview today, but it'll have to be tomorrow.  I have to apologize - writing these has been a grind, and I got absurdly sloppy around the holidays.  You deserve more actual Virginia-focused content than you've been getting.  You'll get it starting this week.  I want to do a too-early preview of next year's football units, O and D.  I have catching-up to do on the recruits.  When we hire new assistant coaches, I'm sure I'll have an opinion on that.  (Gonna wait til they're official, though.)  This aside from the fact that it's actually basketball season, so we might mention that some, too.  And lastly, the lacrosse season starts a week earlier than usual, so I think next week we'll have to get cracking on that.  Less than seven days ago I was shoveling snow in minus-12 degree weather and now I'm talking about the spring sports on the very near horizon.  A yearly mind-boggler, that one.

season preview: NC State

Media prediction: 10th of 15

Last season:

Record: 24-11 (11-7); ACC 5th seed
Postseason: NCAA 8 seed; lost in 1st round
KenPom: 34th of 347

Returning scoring: 21.2%
Returning rebounding: 17.7%
Returning assists: 15.1%

2012-2013 all-ACC:

1st team: F Richard Howell
2nd team: G Lorenzo Brown
3rd team: F C.J. Leslie
HM: none
Defensive: none
Rookie: F T.J. Warren

(Italics indicate departed player.)

Starting lineup:

PG: Anthony Barber (Fr.)
SG: Desmond Lee (Jr.)
SF: T.J. Warren (So.)
PF: Lennard Freeman (Fr.)
C: Jordan Vandenberg (5Sr.)

Bench:

G Ralston Turner (rJr.)
G Tyler Lewis (So.)
F Kyle Washington (Fr.)
F BeeJay Anya (Fr.)

Coach: Mark Gottfried (3rd season)

ACC schedule:

Twice: Miami, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest
Once: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech

NC State took a fall in the preseason poll for the same reason as Miami: losing everyone.  Despite an early loss to NC Central, however, they've handled the transition better.  They've got a little extra help: forward T.J. Warren returns after being part of their heralded freshman class last year, and he's living up to every bit of his five-star reputation.

Out from under the shadow of NC State's veterans, Warren is exploding onto the scene, scoring almost 24 points a game right now.  When on the floor, Warren takes more than a third of NC State's shots, one of the highest usage rates in the country.  He's also a solid rebounder who crashes the offensive boards especially hard.  If he were shooting threes at a better clip he'd be nearly unstoppable, but he was a better than .500 shooter from that range last year so it's not out of his reach.

The rest of the Wolfpack are basically complementary to Warren's stardom.  Freshman point guard Anthony Barber is doing a good job of balancing scoring and distributing while limiting his turnovers.  Desmond Lee provides decent secondary scoring, and LSU transfer Ralston Turner (who sat last season per transfer rules) provides excellent three-point heat off the bench.  Turner is the only one shooting over .300, though, and since NC State generally shoots threes badly, doesn't take many in the first place, and hasn't gotten to the free-throw line much, the Pack currently get the highest percentage of their points from two-pointers in the country.

Most of the frontcourt is there to rebound and defend.  Freshman Lennard Freeman can score a bit, but he's lightly used.  His backup, Kyle Washington, is - basically a backup.  7'1" center Jordan Vandenberg had a slow start to his season with an ankle injury, but if his ankle can hold up, NC State would be well-advised to use him more.  Vandenberg represents the entire senior class at NC State (it's a team that's highly tilted toward underclassmen); he's seen limited action in his career but so far this year has been a highly efficient scorer and outstanding shot-blocker.  His backup, freshman BeeJay Anya, is a strange physical specimen; he's only 6'9" but clocks in at 325 pounds and has freakishly long arms.  He's a lightly-used defensive specialist for now.

NC State's ACC season has started with a disappointing loss to Pitt after holding an 8-point halftime lead; nevertheless, they should find a moderate amount of success in the conference this year.  They're not a likely favorite contender for the title, but they did do what UVA could not: beat Tennessee in Knoxville, giving them an OOC win to hang their hat on come selection time.  They can be somewhat one-dimensional, as they rely so heavily on Warren and mid-range scoring.  However, they're at least a bubble team and their conference season will be an exercise in convincing the selection committee to give them a double-digit seed.  Call it 50-50 from here as to whether they can get to the Dance or merely the NIT.

****************************************************

So I really should've acted like there's a basketball game today, and previewed it, but then I also should've not put on my procrastination shoes during the whole holiday season and gotten like three weeks behind.  This coming week I'll work to finish these darn previews.  Meantime, look for notes on the bottom like this, if something has happened worth noting.  Kind of like:

-- The impending assistant coach exodus.  Or rather, ongoing exodus, with Anthony Poindexter and Vincent Brown officially off to Connecticut, where they'll work for former UVA assistant Bob Diaco.  Dex was on staff with Diaco at UVA, and no doubt recommended Brown, who arrived with London - though Brown did work as a graduate assistant on UVA's staff while Diaco was here.  Since Poindexter will be UConn's DC, it makes sense he'd want to work with at least one familiar face.

I'm on record as saying that when London goes, as seems inevitable, a clean sweep of the coaching staff should follow.  So starting that a bit early doesn't bother me a great deal.  Yeah, Poindexter's a UVA legend.  And he's getting a raise and a promotion by leaving.  Brown is not, but his motivation is equally understandable: get off the sinking ship, fast.  Brown gets another 3-4 years of job security out of this, and the chance to choose his own destiny rather than sitting around waiting for the axe next winter.  In fact, it's Brown whose loss will hurt UVA the most: I think he's easily the most capable of UVA's position coaches, and his recruiting responsibility was Georgia, a place where UVA was having a reasonable amount of success and should always have a presence.  That said, I've got no real heartburn over ever losing any member of the current coaching staff.  Not even Poindexter.  I don't think his coaching has been a positive for UVA, on balance.  Diaco should be warned to hold special teams meetings in another county from Dex.

Poindexter's departure does one other thing for UVA, too: it relieves a future new head coach of the pressure to keep him and/or removes any potential bad blood from firing him.  That's the risk of hiring popular alums as coaches: nearly all coaching hires end badly.  With Chip West a possibility for departure as well, UVA must replace two and perhaps three defensive coaches.

That'll be hard to do; nobody wants to work for a coach who's widely believed to have just one more year left.  The likely course of action is to promote a GA to a full-time job (Jonathan Lewis's eligibility in that regard is up, and he already works with the D-line, Brown's responsibility this year) or find a I-AA or even high school coach.  UVA will not otherwise be able to attract a name of any kind.

-- Let's also have a recruiting board update in honor of Jamil Kamara's commitment.  As follows:

-- Moved WR Jamil Kamara and DE Darrious Carter from blue to orange.  Kamara's announcement completes a year-long journey that's really even longer, since his name first began to appear during the spring of his freshman year, which would be 2011.

-- Removed LB Melvin Keihn from green (VT.)  Screwing up this recruitment is another piece on the pile of evidence that London's pitch has worn thin and no longer resonates.  Keihn is from Gilman, a school where UVA should do exceedingly well and has in the past - think Darius Jennings.

season preview: NC State Wolfpack

Schedule:

8/31: Louisiana Tech
9/7: Richmond
9/14: BYE
9/19: Clemson (Thu.)
9/28: Central Michigan
10/5: @ Wake Forest
10/12: Syracuse
10/19: BYE
10/26: @ Florida State
11/2: North Carolina
11/9: @ Duke
11/16: @ Boston College
11/23: East Carolina
11/30: Maryland

Skip: Georgia Tech, Miami, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech

2012 results:

Tennessee: L, 35-21
Connecticut: W, 10-7
South Alabama: W, 31-7
The Citadel: W, 52-14
Miami: L, 44-37
Florida State: W, 17-16
Maryland: W, 20-18
North Carolina: L, 43-35
Virginia: L, 33-6
Wake Forest: W, 37-6
Clemson: L, 62-48
Boston College: W, 27-10
Vanderbilt: L, 38-24 (Music City Bowl)

Record: 7-6 (4-4); 3rd of 6, Atlantic Division

Projected starters:

QB: Pete Thomas (rJr.)
RB: Shadrach Thornton (So.)
WR: Quintin Payton (5Sr.)
WR: Rashard Smith (5Sr.)
WR: Bryan Underwood (rJr.)
TE: Asa Watson (5Sr.)
LT: Rob Crisp (Sr.)
LG: Duran Christophe (5Sr.)
C: Joe Thuney (rSo.)
RG: Alex Barr (rSo.)
RT: Tyson Chandler (rJr.)

DE: Art Norman (rJr.)
DT: T.Y. McGill (Jr.)
DT: Thomas Teal (rJr.)
DE: Darryl Cato-Bishop (5Sr.)
SLB: D.J. Green (Sr.)
MLB: M.J. Salahuddin (So.)
WLB: Brandon Pittman (Jr.)
CB: Dontae Johnson (Sr.)
CB: Juston Burris (rSo.)
FS: Jarvis Byrd (5Sr.)
SS: Hakim Jones (rSo.)

K: Niklas Sade (Jr.)
P: Wil Baumann (Jr.)

(Italics indicate new starter.)

Coach: Dave Doeren, 1st season

Media prediction: 3rd of 7, Atlantic Division

All-ACC:

2012 1st team: S Earl Wolff
2012 2nd team: OG R.J. Mattes, CB David Amerson
2012 HM: S Brandan Bishop, DE Darryl Cato-Bishop, QB Mike Glennon, C Camden Wentz
2013 preseason: none

(Italics indicate departed player.)

After a 7-5 regular season and a bowl loss, NC State decided that was as far as Tom O'Brien was ever going to take them.  Their loss, our gain.  The Pack hired Dave Doeren out of the MAC, who wants to bring a more uptempo style to Raleigh than O'Brien's admittedly stodgy ways.  Now comes their chance to see if TOB was holding them back or if he was squeezing the best possible results out of the talent that he had.

-- Offense

The UVA-NC State connections don't stop with TOB, even with a new coaching staff.  O'Brien took the transfer of quarterback Pete Thomas from Colorado State - he left when Steve Fairchild was let go as head coach.  Thomas started right away as a freshman at CSU, had two years as a starter, and acquitted himself fairly well, completing 63.5% of his passes, although also throwing more interceptions than touchdowns (18 to 21.)  He's a big, tall pocket passer, standing 6'6", and has the edge over scrambling QB Manny Stocker for the starting job, though it's also fair to say the question isn't totally settled yet.

Thomas's poor mobility may have contributed to the astronomical number of times he was sacked at CSU - 44 times as a freshman alone - although the Rams also probably had an awful O-line.  At NC State his tackles will probably be better.  The outer edges are the strength of the Wolfpack O-line, with Rob Crisp and Tyson Chandler each having about a year of starting experience.  In Crisp's case it's spread out over a couple seasons, though.  The middle is a little shakier.  Duran Christophe at left guard has plenty of experience and is not at all a question mark.  Center Joe Thuney has been groomed to replace longtime starter Camden Wentz, but has only received playing time in fits and starts; meanwhile, prospective new starter Alex Barr at right guard got very minimal experience last season, playing almost exclusively on special teams.

The tailback platoon that carried the load last season returns, although neither Shadrach Thornton or Tony Creecy put much fear into the opposition.  Thornton, as a true freshman in 2012, started to emerge as a quality player as the year went on, finishing the regular season with three straight 100-yard games.  If he continues to improve and show consistency he'll be a solid back.  Creecy is nothing special, averaging 3.7 yards per carry in each of the past two seasons.

The receivers, at least, are a deep unit.  NC State featured three 600-yard receivers last season, two of which - Quintin Payton and slot jitterburg Bryan Underwood - return in 2013.  Rashard Smith was a useful player in a reserve role, and Asa Watson is a capable tight end as well; additionally, Charlie Hegedus could be an intriguing option, having earned one starting nod as a true freshman last year.  The caveat to the productivity of the receiving corps is that it could be awfully tough for Pete Thomas to duplicate the success of Mike Glennon; a 4,000-yard season such as Glennon had last year is probably not in the offing.

If Thomas - or even Stocker - turns out to be a worthy replacement for Glennon, NC State's offense should be able to move the ball.  Thornton also needs to continue his development into a quality running back, because NC State doesn't have many options otherwise, and the new faces on the O-line need to get up to speed as well.  Plenty of question marks here, but the tools to be respectable as well.

-- Defense

The defensive line looks like NC State's best position unit this year.  It had better be, because the back seven is one of the shakiest in the conference.  Up front, there is a ton of talent.  Ends Darryl Cato-Bishop and Art Norman tallied 6.5 and 5.5 sacks, respectively, and combined for 18.5 TFL as well.  The Pack like the depth they have at end, too, with Forrest West playing a big reserve role in 2012 before going down with injury, and Mike Rose should also push for playing time after delivering a huge punt block last year against FSU.  In the middle, T.Y. McGill has the skills to be a terror; 10.5 of his 39 tackles were for loss last season, including five sacks.  Nose tackle Thomas Teal also gets into the backfield an impressive amount for a 1-tech, and there's not a lot of dropoff in talent to his backup, A.J. Ferguson.

The D-line is excellent, but they're going to have to carry a huge load this year.  Middle linebacker M.J. Salahuddin is a true sophomore who played on special teams last year except for a few snaps against UVA when the game was out of hand.  He earned the starting job in spring camp, with his main competition being career special-teamer and former walk-on Zach Gentry.  Weakside backer Brandon Pittman has some starting experience, but that came in the first two games of last season after which he was bumped to the bench; his backup is a redshirt freshman.  And on the strong side, D.J. Green showed some promise in 2011, starting six games before losing the rest of the season to injury.  In a possibly related development, he was suspended for all of 2012 by the NCAA for PEDs, and could only practice.  Rodman Noel may push for time on that side, but he too began 2012 in the starting lineup before being bumped to the bench.  Last year, NC State's linebacking corps looked shaky going into the season, and they found a few playmakers in Rickey Dowdy and Sterling Lucas; they will need a similar pick-me-up this season.

That's because they no longer have the security blanket named Earl Wolff and Brandan Bishop, who formed probably the league's best safety pair for a couple years.  Getting first crack at replacing them will be Jarvis Byrd and Hakim Jones, the former of which has bounced from corner to safety and suffered two torn ACLs in his career.  Jones doesn't have much field time either, which is no surprise when you're backing up Wolff and Bishop, but in any case the Pack are set to take a major step backwards at safety.  Cornerback is thin too, behind the starters; Dontae Johnson was a starter last season, but didn't record an interception (and with David Amerson on the other side, Johnson was thrown at more than usual) and Juston Burris was the nickel corner and recorded three interceptions.  Not a bad starting two, but the rest of the gang is almost entirely freshmen and walk-ons, so the Pack will have to work hard to find and develop some answers on the depth chart.

Truthfully, I'm not convinced.  So many questions means a few are bound to go unanswered.  This is going to be a tough year defensively for the Pack as they try to solve a perenially vexing linebacker issue and replace three outstanding players in the secondary.  The line is one of the best in the conference, but that can only take them so far; there'll have to be some surprises if NC State is going to succeed.

-- Special teams

Both placekicking and punting look a little iffy.  Kicker Niklas Sade was only 13-for-23 last season, including 8-for-18 from 30 yards or greater, and he missed two extra points.  Punter Wil Baumann had a 38.9 yard average.  Both need to improve.

-- Outlook

I'm on the edge as to whether or not to expect a bowl season out of the Pack this year.  Because of the schedule - it's not difficult, with the toughest OOC test probably being Louisiana Tech - I'd lean toward yes.  It's conceivable the Pack could have five wins by their second bye in October, and even four would set them up well for bowl eligibility.  But a team with such serious holes, and learning new systems, can't be expected to contend for a division title when the two best teams in the conference are in their division.  I'd be surprised if they can't muster up six wins, but not very.

game preview: NC State

Date/Time: Friday, March 15; 2:00

TV: ESPN2

Record against the Pack: 59-81

Last meeting: UVA 58, NCSt. 55; 1/29/13, Charlottesville

Last game: UVA 61, Md. 58 (3/10); FSU 71, NCSt. 67 (3/9)

KenPom:

Tempo:
UVA: 60.3 (#339)
NCSt.: 67.9 (#84)

Offense:
UVA: 108.9 (#53)
NCSt.: 116.2 (#11)

Defense:
UVA: 88.5 (#17)
NCSt.: 98.1 (#121)

Pythag:
UVA: .8934 (#20)
NCSt.: .8491 (#40)

Projected lineups:

Virginia:

PG: Jontel Evans (4.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 4.9 apg)
SG: Paul Jesperson (5.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.0 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (17.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.1 apg)
SF: Justin Anderson (6.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.2 apg)
PF: Akil Mitchell (13.1 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.5 apg)

North Carolina State:

PG: Lorenzo Brown (12.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 7.4 apg)
SG: Scott Wood (12.1 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.1 apg)
F: Richard Howell (13.3 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 1.8 apg)
F: C.J. Leslie (14.9 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.4 apg)
F: T.J. Warren (12.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 0.8 apg)

I won't bore you with a manifesto about the stakes here.  It's a tournament.  Which is our litmus test for another bigger tournament.  If you haven't figured out yet what's on the line here then you're in the wrong place.

-- UVA on offense

NC State's defensive iffiness is well-documented these days.  With a thin rotation, they can't afford foul trouble, and while they're actually very good at staying out of it, they don't play aggressively.  Lacking a center, the Pack struggle to rebound on the defensive end.  If Richard Howell isn't grabbing a rebound, nobody else is either.

It could be interesting to see how that goes, because the last time UVA played a team that doesn't rebound well defensively, they absolutely punished on the offensive glass.  That would be the FSU game, where Akil Mitchell grabbed six offensive boards and Mike Tobey five.  Tobey also had a nice game the last time out against NC State with three offensive rebounds.  It's not the Tony Bennett way, but if UVA is getting its points near the rim, it's much easier to steal a few offensive boards here and there.

That is if we get points at all.  The offense has hit a brick wall lately.  Production from Evan Nolte has dried up; the last time he hit two baskets in a game was February 19 at Miami, and his last three-bucket game was nine days before that.  Joe Harris's shooting has been awful the past three games: 2-for-7, 4-for-9 (but 1-for-6 from three), and 2-for-11.  That's basically your key to the game right there.  That kind of shooting from your first-team all-ACC guy is good enough to scrape out an ugly win over Maryland at home, but in the ACC tourney?  Gonna get you killed.

And truthfully, NC State's defense isn't good enough to dictate terms.  UVA has a better-than-even chance if Harris's jump shot is falling, or if Harris can get by his defender consistently.  Otherwise NC State will hang back in a straight-up man defense, watch Harris struggle, and dare someone else to pick up the slack.

-- UVA on defense

You'll probably hear more than you care to about the very limited play of Lorenzo Brown in the last game, after he twisted his ankle.  The other thing you don't want to hear is that it probably did have an effect.  NC State relies very, very heavily on Brown to facilitate what they do, and doesn't have much else in the way of point guards.  The little hobbit kid, Tyler Lewis, is about it, and the Pack don't use him much.

Besides running Brown and occasionally Lewis at the point, NC State works with a thin lineup, using six players for the other four spots.  Four players (Brown, Leslie, Howell, and Wood) get 30+ minutes per game.  Shooting guard Scott Wood (he's listed as a forward but I don't care, his role is 2-guard all the way) sits for barely six minutes a game.  Wood is a fearsome and voluminous three-point shooter.  It was really against Wood that Paul Jesperson opened some eyes to his defense; Jesperson harried Wood into a subpar shooting night and some uncharacteristic turnovers.  His ability or lack thereof to do so again will swing a big part of this game.

Most of the rest of NC State's scoring comes from a trio of forwards: C.J. Leslie, Richard Howell, and the underused T.J. Warren.  Leslie is lanky and athletic; Justin Anderson will likely draw that assignment, and Anderson gives up three inches.  Howell is powerfully built and a strong interior scorer.  Warren is a little bit of both, and shoots a very occasional three.  NC State might be better off if it were more than occasional, because he's 13-for-24 on the season.  Putting all three on the floor at once represents a matchup challenge, because Joe Harris gives up a lot athletically to Warren, who he'd likely have to guard.

Bottom line here: this team can beat you in a lot of ways.  It's cliched, but it really took a 40-minute defensive effort to stop the Pack last time.  It's gonna take the same again.  UVA enjoys one major matchup advantage in Mike Tobey; the only time NC State trots out a center is when they give Jordan Vandenberg a few minutes here and there to spell their scoring forwards.  But NC State is still accustomed to having their way in the paint due to their athleticism, and Brown is very adept at getting them the ball in the right place.

-- Outlook

History, as I've probably overmentioned, is not on our side here.  And though NC State is seen as something of an underachiever, all their losses but one (and that to Miami) have been away from home.  Technically this game will also be away from home, but not in practice.  I fear I have no choice here but to play the pessimist; UVA hasn't been playing well of late and there is a grain of truth to the notion that NC State missed Brown badly during our last game.

Final score: NCSt. 66, UVA 59

pack it in

So a lot of things went right yesterday.  Finally.  Not everything went right.  But finally, enough went right to cover up the mistakes.  It's amazing how you create your own breaks by playing well enough to earn them.  And whatever things did go wrong, 33-6 lets you ignore them.  Or at least rationalize them.

Of all the impressive things from yesterday, maybe the best of all is this: a coaching staff that kept a team interested in football even through a season-wrecking six-game losing streak.  They stayed interested enough that just maybe the fans will stay interested too.  On second thought, scratch the maybe; they played well enough that some people are actually talking about winning out.

That wouldn't be happening if the Hoos had squeaked through, Penn State-style.  Not only did a 2-6 team upset a likely bowl-bound one, they won by enough that fans of the formerly 2-6 and now 3-6 team are thinking about a bowl game themselves.  Huh?  It's crazy.  But maybe not that crazy.

That's how good the game really was.  Not just good - maybe sustainably good.  When you own the trenches, you can dictate a lot of things to a lot of teams.  When a team is motivated and angry, it matters.  When they're motivated and confident, it matters even more.  In a twisted way, it's enough to piss you off even more about the last couple games, because, like, where could we be if that had gone like this?

As they say, though, it is what it is.  The real beauty of this is that for a week, we're allowed our crazy thoughts.  Maybe it's really stupid to think we could win out and scrape our way into a bowl.  Maybe we shouldn't even be so damn excited about the thin possibility being 6-6 in the first place.  At least for a week, though, even if it's crazy it's conceivable.

Further things in brief:

-- There's no other way to open up actual game analysis than with the defense.  Of all the stats to emerge from this game, the best one is that they just about doubled their season sack total.  All season we've been fretting that poor pass rushing would lead to coverage breakdowns and vice versa.  Sometimes it's been true.  On Saturday it was the opposite.  The defensive line owned the trenches for every second they were on the field.  Lemme repeat that, because it's the #1 reason that it's OK to dream about winning the next three games: The defensive line owned the trenches for every second they were on the field.  And their job was made easier because the secondary played a very nice game, even inducing a coverage sack or two.  Sacks were recorded by Jake Snyder, Mike Moore (who singlehandedly destroyed one NC State drive), Brent Urban, Will Hill, and two by Chris Brathwaite.  Look at that list again; what do you notice about them?  Give yourself a cookie if you noticed that two-thirds of the sacks belong to defensive tackles.  Give yourself another one if you noticed how spread-out the action was.  This adds up to total domination.

-- And then, after snagging only one interception all season, the secondary broke out with three.  It's amazing how easy it can be to win a game when you're the one getting the takeaways.  One each for Maurice Canady, Ant Harris, and Eli Harold, the latter being another example of that synergy between pressure and coverage.  If there were coverage sacks, that was a pressure interception, and fine job on that play as well by Daquan Romero who was right on the ball and batted it to Harold.

-- Are the coaches slowly pulling back on the RB platoon?  Kevin Parks got 25 carries to Perry Jones's 11, and was extremely effective carrying the water.  Then again, Jones had six receptions, so it's not like he's being phased out.

-- Speaking of platoons.  Stop it.  You already know which position I mean.  Mike Rocco was 12-for-23 and probably would've been better if he wasn't always coming into the game cold.  Phillip Sims' 8-for-10 day could've been a lot bigger with all the snaps.  I know Rocco came right in and directed a TD drive, but this doesn't work overall.  It screws with the receivers, trying to adjust to two different ball styles.  It screws with the quarterbacks, taking their heads in and out of the game.  I know that both Rocco and Sims can make throws the other can't, but a better solution would be to teach Sims the throws he can't make.

-- Mike Glennon spent a lot of the day picking himself up off his ass, and the NC State O-line spent the whole day getting owned.  But I nominate Wolfies' cornerback Dontae Johnson as the guy who'd most like to forget Saturday.  Johnson was the guy burned on Tim Smith's long touchdown, Johnson was the guy that Perry Jones(!) blew up next to the sideline, and Johnson was one of the guys that Mike Rocco(!) juked off his soles to convert a 3rd-and-10 with his feet.  Ouch.

-- I freaking love safeties.  The eff-you-up-in-the-end-zone kind.  Best play in football.

Prediction summary:

-- Phillip Sims completes either less than 50% or more than 60% of his passes.  I wish he had thrown more so that it didn't look like I got this on a small-sample-size technicality, but he was 8-for-10.

-- UVA doesn't have a run play of more than 15 yards.  Actually there were several.  Hell, Rocco almost had one.

-- Sims is sacked at least three times.  Sims was under more pressure than I'd have liked to see, but ultimately State only registered one sack.  That's pretty good considering the Pack's solid pass rush.

-- Our running backs average at least half a yard per carry more than State's.  By, like, so much.

-- At least twice during this game, something happens on special teams that makes me try and reach through the monitor to strangle someone.  This one's a yes, and here's why.  Number one was a missed field goal from 22 yards, which might've been prevented by taking a delay-of-game penalty.  Even so you can't miss those.  Can't.  Number two was the punt where we got the ball back on a fumble.  That was the telltale sign that this was one of those days where everything just went our way, but it didn't have to be such a long return if a couple people had paid attention to the ball.  Ignoring the returner isn't exactly good fundamental football.  And the punt was terrible too.  Vozenilek had probably his worst punting day all season, in fact.

Another 3-for-5 puts me at 19-for-44, 43%.  It's a good thing I'm not betting on our games, cause I'm 0-7-2 ATS and 4-5 straight up.  Oh, how I hate being proven wrong.  Oh please do not do that to me again.  Please, Bre'r Fox, don't throw me in that ol' briar patch.

game preview: NC State

Date/Time: Sat., November 3; 12:30

TV: ACC Net., ESPN3

Record against the Pack: 21-34-1

Last meeting: NCSt. 28, UVA 14; 10/22/11, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA bye; UNC 43, NCSt. 35

Line: NC State by 10.5

Injury report:

Virginia -

OUT FOR SEASON
S Pablo Alvarez, DT Marco Jones, WR Mario Nixon

OUT
DE Diamonte Bailey, DE Billy Schautz

DOUBTFUL
None

QUESTIONABLE
RB Clifton Richardson

PROBABLE
DT David Dean, K Ian Frye, CB Drequan Hoskey

GOT THEIR ASSES SUSPENDED, WAY TO GO GUYS
FB LoVante' Battle, LB Henry Coley, TE Jeremiah Mathis

NC State -

OUT FOR SEASON
G Zach Allen, DT Jacob Kahut, LB Michael Peek, RB James Washington, DE Forrest West

OUT
CB Jarvis Byrd

DOUBTFUL
None

QUESTIONABLE
None

PROBABLE
None

If all had gone as it was supposed to, we'd either be bowl-eligible by now, or needing this one more to get there.  This has not happened.  The easier portion of the schedule has come and gone, and now the Hoos are staring down the barrel of a winless ACC season.  That would be something of a disaster, as it would also mean a 10-loss season, and regardless of whether you or I think it should, it would turn up the heat a notch on Mike London's seat.  The upcoming four-game stretch, therefore, is no longer about bowl eligibility and all about looking marginally respectable.  For a given definition of "respectable."

-- UVA run offense vs. NCSt run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 103 carries, 503 yards, 4.9 avg, 3 TDs
Perry Jones: 93 carries, 322 yards, 3.5 avg, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
128.13 yards/game, 3.74 yards/attempt
92nd of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)

NCSt defense:
138.0 yards/game, 3.74 yards/attempt
44th of 124 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)

Guess there's no need to overanalyze this one.  Based on past performance I calculate that UVA will average exactly 3.74 yards per carry on Saturday.

Maybe you want something more in depth, though.  The thing about NC State's run defense is that it would be absolutely horrible if they didn't have a very good, veteran defensive backfield.  Senior safeties Earl Wolff and Brandan Bishop are the team's tackle leaders, and you have to go all the way down to ninth on the tackles list before you find any defensive linemen.  Juston Burris is the team's fifth defensive back (and no, the Pack don't run a 3-3-5) and even he is ahead of the D-linemen.

When you have to rely so much on your back seven, you're going to get a lot of inconsistency, and that's what's happened.  Furthermore they've given up some big games to opposing running backs in their last three contests.  Giovani Bernard, Wes Brown, and Chris Thompson all ran for over 100+ yards.  That streak will end on Saturday, because all three had workhorse-level workloads, and UVA splits the carries too much for anyone to have 100 yards, short of there being an 80-yard play somewhere, which there won't.

Still, I expect to find at least a little bit of running room.  With Parks averaging almost five yards a carry, that hasn't been too much of a problem lately, and when you don't have a good defensive line you lose the advantage you might have against UVA's O-line.  The main concern I have is linebackers shooting gaps; Wake found ways to do this with some consistency last game, and State's LB Rickey Dowdy has nine TFL this season from the weak side.  Plus, Wolff and Bishop know what they're doing and won't be fooled by Phillip Sims's not-good play-fakes, making it all the more likely they'll be able to crash the front lines and hold running plays to minimum yardage.  Parks will get his yards (Jones I'm increasingly less sure about) but he'll have to grind them out.  I don't expect anything longer than about 15 yards at the most.

-- UVA pass offense vs. NCSt pass defense

Quarterback:
Phillip Sims: 84/155, 54.2%; 1,000 yards (exactly!), 7 TDs, 4 INTs; 6.45 avg.

Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 29 rec., 407 yards, 1 TD
Perry Jones: 28 rec., 258 yards, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
279.8 yards/game, 7.0 yards/attempt
72nd of 124 (national), 10th of 12 (ACC)

NCSt defense:
278.1 yards/game, 8.4 yards/attempt
115th of 124 (national), 11th of 12 (ACC)

This was not what I expected to see out of the Pack.  Before the season I pegged them as the top secondary in the conference; obviously that ain't true.  And those numbers are even more astounding considering that they actually have a pretty effective pass rush.  If they didn't have 24 sacks those numbers might even be worse.  (Yes, sacks end up in the rushing totals.  Still, all that pressure, you'd think it'd help with the rest of the operation.)

Clearly, this pass rush is the #1 concern.  Oday Aboushi and Morgan Moses have been absolutely brutal lately.  DE Darryl Cato-Bishop is the primary pass rush threat, but State has 13 different players with a sack.  UVA barely has half that many sacks, period.  DT T.Y. McGill can also be disruptive, and the Pack like to blitz as well.  Phillip Sims has been under a lot of pressure lately and doesn't handle the rush especially well - sometimes fine, sometimes not - so it'd be awfully nice if UVA can find a way to keep the grass stains off his shirt.

The other problem is that Sims and timing routes haven't been a happy combination.  Combine that with an inability to pass block for longer than 1.7 seconds, meaning deepish downfield routes don't have time to develop, and you see why the pass offense has been leading the all-out charge to the basement.

Out in the secondary, David Amerson has recovered somewhat from an absolutely horrible nationally televised season opener against Tennessee, and has four interceptions.  He's still a top corner, but prone to inexplicable breakdowns, probably because of his gambling.  He has so many picks - this year and last - because he breaks very well on the ball, but he's susceptible as hell to stop-and-go routes, and safeties Wolff and Bishop can sometimes be overaggressive against the run.

You'd think, therefore, that play-action would be a great way to beat the Pack.  You'd be right.  That being the case, let's hope Sims's play fakes have improved, because he can be awfully lazy with them.  Things could be good if they have.  That said, I'm at a loss what to expect here.  Mostly I expect the pass rush to fluster Sims, because I haven't seen a lot of evidence that our tackles are the NFL-ready machines we thought they were.  Beyond that, though, this is a very boom-or-bust matchup.  I have a feeling Sims will either be horrible or awesome.

-- NCSt run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Tony Creecy: 95 carries, 385 yards, 4.1 avg, 3 TDs
Shadrach Thornton: 59 carries, 298 yards, 5.1 avg, 2 TDs

NCSt offense:
122.38 yards/game, 3.30 yards/attempt
109th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
148.25 yards/game, 4.10 yards/attempt
63rd of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)

There are biblical names like David and Jacob which everyone knows and uses.  Then there's Shadrach Thornton, whose parents showed a very admirable attention to biblical detail.  I have no idea if his brothers are named Meshach and Abednego.

Thornton's presence on the field is the result of the Pack having to dig very deep to find some running backs.  James Washington missed a lot of time with an ankle injury, got back on the field against UNC, and promptly wrecked his knee.  And the Pack sat Mustafa Greene a while ago for being a twat and kicked him off the team a couple weeks ago for being a bigger twat.

That brings it down to Creecy and Thornton.  Thornton has the gaudier average, but a lot of that was racked up against The Citadel, and actual alive run defenses the last three weeks have shut him down.  Creecy will be the workback; he's a little bigger than Thornton, and the offense has been tilting in his direction lately, even when Washington was back.

NC State has a veteran interior line, which ought to be getting better results in the run game, but they're also not anyone's idea of all-conference players.  Not bad, not great, and the same holds true for the State backs, even before Washington and Greene left the scene.  The whole thing is straight vanilla: good enough to help supplement the pass game, and not much more.

Our own run defense will probably take a hit without Henry Coley.  I think there's a prevailing sentiment that we'll be OK, but I worry; Daquan Romero doesn't have half of Coley's experience.  I wouldn't be surprised to see State test Romero early, and run at his side to see what he's got.  Otherwise, we should be fine.  Believe it or not, this is a top-20 run defense in the country If You Take Out The Georgia Tech Game (a phrase I've used enough by now to officially deserve capitalization.)  As with most games this season, every time they run and don't pass, it's a tiny little win for us.

-- NCSt pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Mike Glennon: 191/330, 57.9%; 2,455 yards, 19 TDs, 9 INTs; 7.44 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Quintin Payton: 34 rec., 603 yards, 1 TD
Bryan Underwood: 28 rec., 460 yards, 10 TDs

NCSt offense:
306.9 yards/game, 7.4 yards/attempt
54th of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
208.6 yards/game, 6.8 yards/attempt
46th of 124 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)

If I didn't know any better, I'd say those were some damn good numbers for a 2-6 team.  The conventional wisdom is that a senior quarterback like Glennon will carve us up.  He might just do that, as I'm not sure the pass defense passes the eye test just yet.  The cold hard stats are very nice, but the defense has gotten burned a bit at very bad times.

NC State presents a challenge.  Few teams in the country pass more than they do; they're 13th in total pass attempts.  And they spread the ball around very well.  Like UVA, they use their running backs extensively (a potential point in our favor since our defense ought to be well-practiced against that stuff.)  Tight ends Mario Carter and Asa Watson have 18 and 16 catches, respectively, another test for newly minted starter Romero on the strong side.  And they have a deep corps of receivers.  When I saw that someone had 10 TD catches - that was the first thing that jumped off the stats page, for obvious reasons - I thought, "oh, a tall dude or a tight end or something."  Nope, it's Bryan Underwood; he's a leetle guy.  He, plus Quintin Payton and Tobais Palmer (every time I write this guy's name I think "damn typos" but no, it's Tobais) are all frequent targets of Glennon.  Payton is huge; the other two are small.

Glennon is coming off of a 467-yard performance against UNC, and he did it completing only 29 of 52 passes.  He might've topped 500, but this happened.  I wouldn't count on that as a defensive strategy, but it's nice to know we're not the only team in the ACC with that issue.

Not many teams we've played are willing to include so many players in the passing game.  That'll be the toughest test for this secondary of ours, plus Romero.  But the interesting part is this: the Pack are not very good at protecting Glennon (in fairness, a lot of pass attempts means a lot of sacks, so it's not a complete indictment of their O-line that they're near the bottom of the country in sacks allowed) and our coaches have been committing more playing time on the D-line to younger players with more explosiveness.  Eli Harold is listed as a starter, and Chris Brathwaite and David Dean (who got his first career sack against Wake Forest) have been making more appearances.  Pressure on Glennon is a must, obviously, or he'll pick us apart.  Probably he will at intervals here and there anyway, but there's a chance here to limit the damage.

-- Outlook

What I've just typed makes the game look winnable.  That is until you take into account our very special teams.  If we could get into a fair fight with our opponents we might at least be 4-4.  The offense isn't too functional, but if special teams didn't piss away half our games, the defense wouldn't always be given short fields to work with.  You'd like to hope the bye week was used to sharpen up the special teams focus and erase some of the physical and stupid mental mistakes, but evidence must be seen before we can declare it to be true.  Until then, it's safest to assume that unit will continue to shit the bed with the lights on.

-- Prediction summary

-- Phillip Sims completes either less than 50% or more than 60% of his passes.
-- UVA doesn't have a run play of more than 15 yards.
-- Sims is sacked at least three times.
-- Our running backs average at least half a yard per carry more than State's.
-- At least twice during this game, something happens on special teams that makes me try and reach through the monitor to strangle someone.

Final score: NCSt 26, UVA 13

-- Rest of the ACC

Florida State, North Carolina byes

Miami 30, Virginia Tech 12 (Thursday) - There's a very, very good chance VT will be fighting for bowl eligibility in our Thanksgiving matchup.

Georgia Tech at Maryland, 12:30 - Maryland's QB situation is like if we had to start Demeitre Brim at QB with Jake McGee as backup.  Only they had tried to redshirt the freshman linebacker they're putting under center, and would like, if possible, to redshirt the freshman tight end acting as backup.  And he'll still probably rack up 35 on GT's defense.

Boston College at Wake Forest, 3:30 - BC's win over Maryland last week, in which they killed off (no, not literally) the last surviving Maryland quarterback, put UVA right on the inside track for the ACC basement.

Clemson at Duke, 7:00 - Duke has never played in a prime time game because the last time they were good nobody had yet conceived of the idea that you could use electricity to light up the outdoors.  Both teams are attempting to keep pace in their respective division races, but Clemson actually needs the game more I cannot believe I just wrote that.

season preview: NC State Wolfpack

Schedule:

8/31: Tennessee (Fri.)
9/8: @ Connecticut
9/15: South Alabama
9/22: The Citadel
9/29: @ Miami
10/6: Florida State
10/13: BYE
10/20: @ Maryland
10/27: @ North Carolina
11/3: Virginia
11/10: Wake Forest
11/17: @ Clemson
11/24: Boston College

Skip: Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech

Projected starters:

QB: Mike Glennon (5Sr.)
RB: James Washington (Sr.)
FB: Logan Winkles (rSo.)
WR: Tobais Palmer (5Sr.)
WR: Quinton Payton (rJr.)
TE: Mario Carter (5Sr.)
LT: Rob Crisp (Jr.)
LG: R.J. Mattes (Sr.)
C: Camden Wentz (Sr.)
RG: Zach Allen (5Sr.)
RT: Andrew Wallace (5Sr.)

DE: Darryl Cato-Bishop (rJr.)
DT: Thomas Teal (rSo.)
DT: T.Y. McGill (So.)
DE: Brian Slay (Sr.)
SLB: Rodman Noel (So.)
MLB: Sterling Lucas (5Sr.)
WLB: Rickey Dowdy (rJr.)
CB: David Amerson (Jr.)
CB: C.J. Wilson (5Sr.)
SS: Earl Wolff (5Sr.)
FS: Brandan Bishop (Sr.)

K: Niklas Sade (So.)
P: Wil Baumann (So.)

(Italics indicate new starter.)

Coach: Tom O'Brien (6th season)

Media prediction: 3rd, Atlantic Division

All-ACC:

2011 1st team: SP T.J. Graham, CB David Amerson
2011 2nd team: TE George Bryan, LB Terrell Manning
2011 HM: S Brandan Bishop, LB Audie Cole, S Earl Wolff
2012 preseason: CB David Amerson, S Earl Wolff

(Italics indicate departed player.)

I have to cop to consistently underestimating the Wolfpack last season.  I did say, in my season preview, that they wouldn't likely win more than seven games, and that's exactly what happened in the regular season.  But they had a way of winning games I thought they'd lose, including and especially the one against us, and their bowl game as well.  NC State doesn't seem to have a pile of blow-you-away talent, but Tom O'Brien is a master at squeezing every last drop out of what he has.

OFFENSE

That's an idea that's perfectly embodied in senior quarterback Mike Glennon.  Glennon doesn't excite the viewer the way a flashier quarterback would, but he quietly posted a 31-touchdown season in 2011, quieting and even converting all the critics who existed simply because Glennon wasn't Russell Wilson.  Glennon did an outstanding job spreading the ball among a number of receivers, none of whom was a certifiable superstar (though T.J. Graham did go in the third round of the NFL draft) but as a unit presented a real coverage challenge.

NC State goes into this season, again, without a proven receiving corps.  It's probably even less so than last year when the Pack at least had a foundation at tight end and a track star (Graham) at receiver.  Tobais Palmer proved to be a very reliable second fiddle in 2011, and now must take the next step and be the featured receiver in 2012.  After him, there's little experience; Quinton Payton and Rashard Smith are fourth-year juniors that are finally seeing their turn atop the depth chart, but neither has played a major role in the past.  The Pack also break in a new tight end - Mario Carter has been waiting patiently for his turn after George Bryan held down the position so well for four years.

The passing game will get a boost from the backfield, as James Washington is an accomplished receiver; his 42 catches were good enough for second on the team last year.  However, Washington and his backup Tony Creecy (another quality passcatcher) are at best adequate carrying the ball.  The two combined to average just 3.9 yards per attempt while dominating the carries.  NC State has a very experienced and dependable offensive line, especially up the middle, so a little more explosiveness out of the backfield would go a long way.

That line is led by three third-year starters up the middle.  Center Camden Wentz is the anchor, and he and RG Zach Allen have both had their position on lockdown for two years now, going on three.  Though the Pack have a new starter at left tackle, they think highly enough of Rob Crisp that longtime starter R.J. Mattes has been bumped inside to left guard.  Andrew Wallace, at right tackle, is pushing the reset button in a way - two years ago he was the starting LG, then suffered a knee injury in bowl practice and missed most of 2011, and when he returned he came off the bench.

Everyone knows offensive success begins in the trenches, and though NC State doesn't have much to excite at the skill positions, the Pack offense should function just fine, thanks to a senior quarterback and a wealth of experience up front.  Especially if the tackles can settle into their jobs with minimal bumps along the way.

DEFENSE

The offense may be lacking in star power, but the defense can hang its hat on having maybe the best cornerback in the country.  Junior David Amerson, who's been starting since his freshman year, set a new single-season ACC record with a crazy 13 interceptions in 2011.  It's probably safe to say quarterbacks won't throw to his side of the field.  Like, ever.  That'll be OK with NC State; the other side is manned by C.J. Wilson, who only has three career picks, but also has three career pick-sixes.  One day he'll be tackled and think someone broke a rule.  NC State rounds off what clearly is the league's best secondary with two veteran safeties in Earl Wolff and Brandan Bishop.  The pair combined for 194 tackles in 2011, and Bishop picked off five passes and scooped up three fumbles as well.

That two safeties had so many tackles is, as ever, a bad sign for the rest of the defense, though.  In this case, it's fair to say that it's partly from being pretty darn good, but don't expect those tackle numbers to go down, as the Pack have one of the most inexperienced linebacking corps in the league.  All three starters are brand new.  Fifth-year senior Sterling Lucas, the new middle linebacker starter, has been backing up the position his whole career, but actually saw a major reduction in snaps from 2010 to 2011.  On the weak side, Rickey Dowdy is a redshirt junior and has literally played one snap his entire three-year career (against Western Carolina in 2010); it's safe to say his position atop the depth chart isn't set in stone.  Rodman Noel is the older brother of hoops super-recruit Nerlens Noel at Kentucky, so if he's got any of those athleticism genes he might be the best linebacker on the roster, but he too has never taken a snap from scrimmage; thus far, special teams only.

Up front, NC State has experience on the edges but not in the middle.  DE Darryl Cato-Bishop hasn't been a regular starter, but he has been a fixture in the rotation and will provide NC State's primary pass rush.  Brian Slay, on the other side, is a converted tackle and is much more of a run-stopper than a pass-rusher.  (Too bad, because he's got one of the best names you could hope for in a defensive player.)  At tackle, T.Y. McGill shows a fair bit of promise but has minimal onfield experience yet; he too played in the rotation in 2011, but at the back end of it.  Thomas Teal would have been as well, but missed half the year while injured.  There's some potential here on the line, but it's vital for the Pack that they live up to it because letting the linebackers handle it won't be the recipe for success.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Punter Wil Baumann has a strong leg at times, with a season long of 62 yards last year, but he's wildly inconsistent; a 37.5 average is nothing to speak of.  That was his freshman season, so a year of experience should pay off with some improvement on that.  Kicker Niklas Sade is near-automatic inside 40 yards but needs to improve his range; he's just 2-for-6 beyond that.

OUTLOOK

NC State has some good pieces, including two elements vital to any contending team: a veteran quarterback and a solid offensive line.  But I can't help but think that part of the reason they were voted third in the division is that there's no good reason to vote anyone else above them.  The gap between the top two teams (FSU and Clemson) and the rest of the Atlantic is more of a chasm.  The Pack will be a tough out and shouldn't find themselves losing to anyone who's worse than they are on paper, but are they a title contender?  No.  This is a solid-medium bowl team and not a great deal more; they lack too many pieces on defense and don't have a lot of playmakers on offense, and that will be what prevents them from making too many waves.

weekend review

Sunday's baseball game was a marathon producing a very disappointing result.  But never mind that.  It was a good weekend because it's always a good weekend when we beat Maryland, which doesn't lose to Virginia, except for most of the time.  So yes, lacrosse is this week's top subject of conversation.

UVA looked great at either end of the game and not so good in the middle.  And I think I know why: they didn't listen when I said "patience" and then they did.  You might've noticed by now that this team is really good at finding open guys five feet from the net, because Steele Stanwick is good at finding open guys five feet from the net and Chris Bocklet is really good at being that open guy.  Sometimes these goals they score are just, things of beauty.

But sometimes they try and force the beauty into ugly spots.  And that's where the turnovers happen.  The defense isn't always screwed-up and out of position, and when the defense is nice and tight around the net, you can't force passes in there no matter your talent level.  Regardless, they try, sometimes, and that's one reason we lost the Hopkins game and why Maryland was up two goals midway through the third on Saturday.

That said, excluded from the forcing-it category is Stanwick's twisting, falling-down, double-teamed goal in the fourth, which is the kind of play that sticks in the mind of a Tewaaraton voter when it's time to fill out the ballot.  Oh yes, he's in the running again, there's no doubt about that.  Colgate's Peter Baum already has 42 goals and could finish the season with 60-some, but Colgate has to make the tourney - as we've seen, the voters care about your postseason exploits.  Stanwick leads the country in assists with 33 and has 14 goals as well, which lands him fourth in the country in PPG.  If Stanwick won, he'd be the first men's recipient to win the award two years in a row; Cuse's Mike Powell was the first to win two but sandwiched in between was our own Chris Rotelli.

Folks are also saying the fourth-quarter run was precipitated by inserting Matt White into the lineup and that hopefully it means White will get more playing time in favor of Owen Van Arsdale, whose hot start has cooled considerably.  And yeah they're not wrong, but then again White has started all ten games.  It's not like he's not out there.  He's just playing midfield, when his natural spot is really attack.  If you want a real suggestion: Move White to attack, OVA to the bench, and put Ryan Tucker on the first-line midfield.  Tucker's got a gun.  So does Rob Emery, and they'll be playing together in next year's midfield so might as well get them some quality time on the same field.

Next week is North Carolina, who I was rooting for last night against Hopkins so they'd be all fat, happy, and content this coming Saturday.  Two weeks from now is Duke, and then the ACC tourney, and by the way here are your tourney scenarios now that we've gotten past Maryland:

-- Beat both UNC and Duke: #1 seed (which would be appropriate and correct as we are the hosts), play either UNC or Duke, I don't know what the tiebreakers are past goal differential and those two teams would be #3 and #4 in some order.

-- Beat UNC, lose to Duke: #2 seed, play Carolina, which beat Maryland and would earn the tiebreaker over them.

-- Lose to UNC, beat Duke: #2 seed, play Maryland, who beat Duke and so would be the #3 seed.

-- Lose both games: #3 seed, play Carolina, who lost to Duke and so would be the #2 seed.

**********************************************************

So baseball also happened.  What else happened is that UVA fans are officially going to sweat any lead in the late innings that's smaller than seven runs.  After taking a 3-0 lead on Sunday, the Hoos gradually pissed away the whole thing until they were down 5-3; a ninth-inning comeback made it 6-5, and then, one half-inning away from finally winning a series in Raleigh, UVA did not even register one out en route to handing the game back to the Wolfpack.  (OK, technically, they did.  It was a sacrifice bunt.  It's not like the pitching actually caused that to happen.)

I think it proved me rather prophetic, actually; these two teams are so closely matched it's unreal.  It just so happens NC State has a better bullpen.  As do most teams these days, unfortunately.

The best game - and not just because we won it - was definitely Saturday's, where the teams' two actual best pitchers matched up.  Carlos Rodon is gonna be scary.  He's scary now. And Branden Kline matched up pitch for pitch, except for a couple mistakes that ended up in the trees.  It was the State bullpen that collapsed on Saturday; they were handed a tie game after a lightning delay forced out the starters, and UVA came through.

Friday was really only notable for Brian O'Connor's ejection, which was a surprise because BOC always brings his indoor voice to umpire arguments.  It started off that way on Friday, too, until a button was pushed someway, somehow, and O'Connor went all Earl Weaver on the guy, except for the dust-kicking.  If it was an effort to fire up the team, it didn't work, but I haven't gotten the impression BOC is the kind of guy to resort to that kind of trick.  I think the umpire said something he didn't like.

So I had yet to see that happen, until this weekend, and I got to see something else I hadn't yet seen with my own eyes: Keith Werman behind the plate.  He's got kind of a Peter Rowen thing going on:

He's also a pretty natural-looking catcher (except for the build), although I didn't see his basestealer-nabbing skills.  NC State didn't run on him.  (They scurred.)

Next week is a home series against Wake Forest, which is a halfway decent team.  Even so, we should be disappointed with anything less than a series win.  No moral victories there.

**********************************************************

In the world of basketball, it's a dead period right now until Thursday, so no contacting recruits, which also means no contacting all those potential transfers we're trying to bring in.  T.J. McConnell, formerly of Duquesne, is officially down to either Arizona or UVA, and will check out Tucson pretty soon.  The downside: McConnell's family supposedly knows Arizona's coach Sean Miller from small times.  The plus side: Arizona is located in Tucson.

McConnell would be a prize catch.  Another possibility: Rice transfer Dylan Ennis, who made the CUSA all-freshman team.  In the big-man theater, Anthony Gill will request his release** (or has done so) from South Carolina, and this is obviously a thing because of this line from his official bio at South Carolina: "Choose (sic) South Carolina over Virginia and Wake Forest."

**Pay no attention to the line about tampering; it's a throwin by a pissed-off SC fan angry that we might take one of their best players.

Edit: RRRGGHHHH DAMMMMITTT I completely forgot to even mention this, which is loooonnngg overdue.

acc baseball preview, part 3 - and a lot more

We begin the second week of our spring preview bonanza by finishing up the ACC's baseball preview, and quite a bit more besides.  Truly a post worthy of returning to the weekday drudge after the weekend.

NC STATE

Last year:

Record: 35-27 (15-15)
ACC tournament: 7th seed; 1-2
NCAA tournament: regional 3 seed; 1-2, eliminated in regional

2012 schedule: skips Miami
Names to know: 3B Andrew Ciencin, SS Chris Diaz, LHP Carlos Rodon

Last year, NC State had enough hitting to get themselves into the ACC tournament, and not enough pitching to do anything else.  And to make a long story short, this year could shape up the same way.

You have to like what NC State returns; though they lose their two best hitters, enough players return to make the lineup solid at least.  Most of the infield returns; the only loss is at first base, but 2B Matt Bergquist and SS Chris Diaz return, along with 3B Andrew Ciencin.  Bergquist and Diaz are what they are; decent-to-good hitters and fielders, but Ciencin is an X-factor that could determine a big chunk of the Wolfpack's fate.  He was a very good producer in his sophomore year (2010), but the new clankbats took away most of his mojo.  And he's not a good fielder.  If he can return to form he'll be a very good middle-of-the-order hitter; if not, it'll leave a hole.

In the outfield, steady producer and excellent producer RF John Gianis returns for his senior year, as does CF Brett Williams.  If Tarran Senay can seize the LF job after moving in and out of the lineup all season in 2011, it'll mean the Pack only have to replace two regular positions in the field (1st and catcher) and one of those could be filled by power hitter Danny Canela, who mostly DHed last year.  Likely first base, as NC State recruited a top catcher in Brett Austin.

But....the pitching.  With Cory Mazzoni moving on after being selected in the 3rd round, the Pack have to turn to freshmen.  Baseball America calls Carlos Rodon the top newcomer (NC State, in fact, has the top two prospects in the conference according to that listing, and three of the top 10) and he'll have every chance to earn the Friday job.  The rest of the rotation will be filled by returning veterans who bounced back and forth from the rotation to the pen in 2011; Ethan Ogburn is probably the front-runner for Saturday, with Vance Williams and lefty Grant Sasser also getting looks.  It's not an encouraging group overall, though, and Wolfpack baseball games will probably end up looking like lacrosse scores again.

This could be one of the toughest teams in the ACC to peg, because of their excellent recruiting class that could start to usurp starting roles.  But the best guess is another season that looks a lot like last year's 7 seed, because pitching is pitching and the Pack, for the most part, lack it.

VIRGINIA TECH

Last year:

Record: 30-25 (11-19)
ACC tournament: no
NCAA tournament: no

2012 schedule: skips Clemson
Names to know: LF Andrew Rash, 1B Ronnie Shaban, OF Tyler Horan, LHP Joe Mantiply

Ah, Virginia Tech.  Leave it to the Hokies to wear the ugliest colors in world history, and then, just to be Hokies, troll the world with unis that look like this and this.  Fortunately, they're not a threat to appear on national TV in Omaha any time soon, so baseball fans everywhere have that going for them.

To talk about VT baseball is to start with LF Andrew Rash, who finished last year with a fantastic .335-18-53 stat line.  18 HRs in 191 ABs is ridiculous, especially with a clankbat and not the old pingbats.  It translates to 56.5 dingers in a typical MLB season.  With 1B Ronnie Shaban and contact-hitting utilityman Jake Atwell in the lineup, Tech at least has a viable middle of the order.  Also expect OF Tyler Horan to play a big role, probably in right; Horan hit .396-3-12 in only 48 at-bats last year and slugged a whopping .771.  (Even Rash "only" slugged .707.)  3B Johnny Morales returns, though he's nothing special really, and IF Chad Pinder should also move into a bigger role after hitting .310 as a semi-regular last year.

The pitching is decidedly mediocre, though.  Veterans Joe Mantiply (lefty) and Marc Zecchino (righty) anchor the rotation, but neither is all that frightening.  DIII transfer Andrew Aizenstadt is the likely choice for the third weekend spot.  Mantiply and Zecchino were Friday and Saturday last year, respectively, but it shouldn't surprise if the order is shaken up a little this year.  Tech has no designated closer; in fact, one of the players tying for the saves lead last year (with three) was Shaban.

VT has a good lineup with the potential to be a very good one.  But like NC State, they'll only go as far as their pitching takes them.  To the ACC tournament?  Possibly - skipping Clemson certainly helps.  But they play in a tough division and won't have much margin for error.

WAKE FOREST

Last year:

Record: 25-31 (15-15)
ACC tournament: 8 seed; 0-3
NCAA tournament: no

2012 schedule: skips Duke
Names to know: LF Mac Williamson, 3B Carlos Lopez, LHP Tim Cooney

Surprise!  Wake Forest has spent some time recently sucking at baseball - especially in 2010 when they were positively horrible - but there they were, a surprise 8th seed in the ACC tournament in 2011 with a respectable .500 record in the conference despite a losing record overall.

How'd they do it?  Great question!  Outside of LF Mac Williamson and 3B Carlos Lopez, the hitting was pretty bad.  As a team they hit .225; the best average was Williamson's .273.  Wake relied on the long ball and timely extra-base hits to score runs; Williamson and Lopez combined for 23 home runs.  Practically the whole team returns; center field is the only significant gap to fill.  Whether that's a good thing goes back to that question about returning bad players; the second-base righty-lefty platoon of Connor Keniry and Mark Rhine batted .197 and .170, respectively.  Brett Armour caught every game and hit .185.  Williamson and Lopez are good players but if you have any kind of decent pitching, Wake's lineup won't scare you.  Or even cause you much stress.

Pitching is why they didn't suck last year; lefties Brian Holmes and Tim Cooney ended up as the Friday-Saturday combo (and will do so again this year) and both were very solid, with ERAs of 3 each.  Cooney is the better strikeout pitcher with 91 last year, but Holmes allowed a .233 BA to Cooney's .265.  And Sunday pitching is guaranteed to be better no matter who it is; they can't possibly have anyone worse than Austin Stadler, whose 8.63 ERA, 2-9 record, and .364 opponents' BA was simply jaw-dropping.

So we've looked at two teams with good lineups and mediocre pitching that will contend for the bottom seeds in the ACC tournament; Wake will be a contender for same with good pitching and miserable hitting.  It'll be interesting to see which results in a better season.

*************************************************

Now that you've gotten through all that, you're probably wondering: what the hell about our own team.  Your reward for sticking through all that is to hear what the hell about our own team.  Like any coach with national title aspirations, Brian O'Connor doesn't like to speak of "rebuilding," and in fact I think it's perfectly fair to apply the "reloading" label to this team.  We lost a lot of talent to the draft and graduation: Steven Proscia, the school's career RBI leader; David Coleman, an out of semi-nowhere hitting story; John Barr, a steady and extremely consistent left field presence; John Hicks, a terrific defensive catcher who could really mash; Tyler Wilson, the Lowe's Senior Class Award winner; Will Roberts, who tossed the first 9-inning perfect game in UVA history; and some other guy who could also play a little baseball.  Our loss was the Seattle Mariners' gain; the way they drafted they might as well just call us their mid-A minor league team in Charlottesville.  I probably forgot some by accident, but I got work to do so we're moving on.

But this year's group oozes potential, even if it's a little light on accomplishment in places.   Been thinking of what the best way to do this is, and I settled on the old position-by-position standby.  Let's go in reverse order of position numbers, starting with....

RIGHT FIELD

Incumbent: David Coleman (departed)

Likely starter(s): Colin Harrington, Mike Papi

Harrington hit .353 last year in limited time, and is on the cusp of becoming a daily player in this lineup.  But what I wrote about Papi in last summer's baseball recruit post is on the verge of becoming true: "One of the higher-profile players coming to UVA in the fall.... Rated the #84 high school player in the country by Baseball America, Papi will be the biggest freshman hitter coming in the fall if Derek Fisher signs with the Rangers.... look for Papi to be a well-known name this spring."  He hit well in the Orange & Blue WS last fall, he's kept on hitting, and he'll be tough to keep out of the lineup himself.  To start the season, they at least make a good righty/lefty platoon (Papi is the lefty) and if they're both hitting, could be excellent candidates to DH as well.

CENTER FIELD

Incumbent: Kenny Swab (departed)

Likely starter(s): Mitchell Shifflett, Reed Gragnani

Gragnani played the position for most of last year, actually, but was bumped for Swab (who, amazingly, moved out there from playing catcher and proved pretty decent.)  Swab had a better arm and was hitting better as well.

Gragnani is a versatile player and a decent (but unspectacular) hitter who, if truth be told, will be a man without a position if everyone produces to their potential.  He's a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type who could play just about any infield or outfield position in a pinch, but will more often than not find himself outmaneuvered.

However, Shifflett is an enigma.  He had just nine hits in 38 at bats last year - a .237 average - and more of those were bunts than not.  Shifflett was blessed with amazing speed, and was used extensively as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement last year.  But if he fails to master his craft at the plate - and there's been little indication that he'll do so - Gragnani will likely be the regular center fielder.  Shifflett will get first crack at the job, and if he simply hits .240, .250 or so, he'll stick.  But just as likely a possibility is that he'll fail to reach the Mendoza Line.

LEFT FIELD

Incumbent: John Barr (departed)

Likely starter(s): Derek Fisher, Reed Gragnani

Fisher, you probably have heard of, even if you haven't heard of any of the other recruits.  His reputation as a hitter precedes him, and he's done nothing to belie it.  If you believe in this kind of symbolism - and there's no doubt something to it - he was given Danny Hultzen's old #23.  The real deal.  But Fisher is also a top candidate to DH, just to make sure his hitting is in a groove, and if he does, Gragnani is the likely choice to field this spot.  Keep in mind, Gragnani earned a gutsy four-pitch walk at a crucial point in last year's RALLY TO OMAHA.  He's the kind of hitter BOC really likes, so there'll be a spot somewhere.  Depending on who's hitting and who isn't, you might also see Harrington or Papi moved out here.

SHORTSTOP

Incumbent: Chris Taylor

Likely starter: Chris Taylor

REMEMBER THIS?



DAMN RIGHT YOU REMEMBER. Taylor is maybe the best defensive shortstop in the league and a great leadoff hitter.  As a bridge between the last group of stars and the next, Taylor is one of the most important players on the team.  Expect him to play every game at short, minus a couple possible rest games midweek.

THIRD BASE

Incumbent: Steven Proscia (departed)

Likely starter(s): Stephen Bruno, Reed Gragnani

Yes, Gragnani could play this spot too.  However, Bruno is the guy for now, and would probably have to play his way out of the role.  Remember, he won the starting shortstop job last year before injury forced him out of the lineup early in the year; it was only then that Taylor took over.  Bruno is one of the quintessential players that I mean when I say this team has a ton of yet-to-be-realized potential.

SECOND BASE

Incumbent: Keith Werman

Likely starter(s): Keith Werman, Reed Gragnani

There's Gragnani again.  Why is he here?

Well, in an ordinary world, Keith Werman - Ninja, the Werm, the Wermanator, or simply one of the straight-up ballplayerest guys around - would take every ground ball, every DP turn, every pop fly, at his accustomed position, second base.  However, because he's so friggin' ballplayer, and we have nothing but rookie catchers (at least, rookie to this team) Werman will probably see a few turns behind the plate.  (That'll be pretty cool, too.) When he does, Gragnani is the likely choice for second base.

FIRST BASE

Incumbent: Jared King

Likely starter: Jared King

Practically no controversy here.  King is a solid fielder and an excellent hitter, and likely to play out almost the entire season here.

CATCHER

Incumbent: John Hicks (departed)

Likely starter(s): Nate Irving, Keith Werman

Irving, a freshman, greatly outhit juco transfer Chace Mitchell in the fall, and will be the guy taking the most turns here.  Mitchell will probably get a few chances, but the pecking order right now has him third.  Ideally, Irving and/or Mitchell will earn the complete trust of the coaches and Werman can stay at second for good by the end of the season, but it looks likely right now that Irving will take half to two-thirds of the pitches, and Werman will take the rest to start off the season, with Mitchell getting in a midweek game here and there to keep him sharp.

STARTING ROTATION

Incumbents: Danny Hultzen, Tyler Wilson, Will Roberts, Cody Winiarski (all departed)

Likely starters: Branden Kline, Whit Mayberry, Scott Silverstein, Joel Effertz

If we were to simply put the best arms in the rotation, Kyle Crockett would be here in place of Silverstein or Effertz.  But those in the know say he's in the pen to start the year.  Either that's a commentary on the other lefty arms in the pen or a commentary on the indispensibility of Silverstein and Effertz, and I sure hope it's the latter.

Kline is the Friday starter, without a doubt.  He's worked his way through the hierarchy; as a freshman, he began in the bullpen and nudged his way into the tournament rotation at the end of the year.  He was the full-time closer as a sophomore, and gave us a classic pitchers' duel with South Carolina reliever Matt Price in the final game of last season.  Now he's coming into his own as the staff ace, a role envisioned two years ago when he spurned the Boston Red Sox and 6th-round money to fulfull his UVA pledge.  Nobody is Danny Hultzen, but Kline will battle the league's best and his bulldog mentality will make life very tough on opposing hitters.

Silverstein will probably be the Saturday guy, if for no other reason than to go righty-lefty-righty in the order.  He's a guy you have to root for: a rare senior, he came in with great stuff and then never pitched in either his freshman or sophomore seasons, the victim of recurring shoulder trouble.  It would be the story of the year if he could give the scouts something to think about.  That leaves Whit Mayberry for Sundays.  Mayberry doesn't have overpowering stuff, but he's got occasional starting experience and he's always been a steady hand.  He's an inexplicable favorite of mine, and a favorite of BOC's too, because he always attacks the strike zone, which he couldn't get away with if he didn't have terrific control.  Finally, your weekday starter will be Joel Effertz, a perfect replacement for Cody Winiarski because he transferred from the same juco. 

BULLPEN

Incumbent: everyone else

Likely starter(s): "starting reliever"?

To kick things off, the likely closer is Justin Thompson, who's seen quite a few innings of long relief in the past and, as a senior, should have the necessary mentality to get that job done.  Thompson was generally the first guy out of the pen last year (if the ball wasn't handed straight to Kline); that role will likely now fall to the lefty, Kyle Crockett.

Another player who's been talked up by BOC (and BOC is not one to idly talk someone up): Artie Lewicki.  He didn't pitch much last year - only 9.1 innings.  But in that time he only gave up one hit, one run, struck out 10, and pitched in a few very crucial situations to boot.  Lewicki is probably the bullpen's prime right-hander (besides closer Thompson.)

After that - well, your guess is as good as mine.  Or anyone's.  Other than senior Shane Halley, all the other options are either freshmen or sophomores who didn't get much time last year.  Halley isn't really a solution; if he were, he'd've shown out by now.  After Crockett and Lewicki, there's about, oh, 35 innings or so of relief work to be doled out, and it'll be fun to see who steps up.

The season officially starts on Friday in South Carolina; UVA will play games against Boston College and Coastal Carolina on the campus of CCU, and then a game against James Madison in Myrtle Beach.  Assuming BC starts a right-hander, this is what the lineup might-could look like:

SS Chris Taylor
LF Reed Gragnani
DH Derek Fisher
1B Jared King
RF Mike Papi
3B Stephen Bruno
C Nate Irving
2B Keith Werman
CF Mitchell Shifflett
SP Branden Kline

All that said, where does UVA end up in the pecking order?  Here's how I see the tournament pods breaking out:

1 North Carolina
4 Florida State
5 Virginia
8 Wake Forest

2 Clemson
3 Georgia Tech
6 Miami
7 Virginia Tech

5th seed is a real let-down from years past, but you gotta remember what a cliff there is between the top six and bottom six.  If we don't host a regional, don't sweat it; this is a bridge year.  That freshman class could nose its way into some playing time, and by the time those guys are juniors, it'll be time once again to be thinking CWS.  Hell, that's the goal anyway.  I think this team is good for 18-19 wins in the ACC; we'll probably hear some sniping from the peanut gallery about our OOC schedule like in years past, but the tradeoff is a whole bunch of wins.

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Housekeeping:

-- I need to make some updates to the recruiting board, but that'll have to wait til tomorrow. 

-- In the we-can't-have-nice-things-around-here department, Joe Harris has a broken bone in his left hand.  Well ain't that fantastic.  He'll keep playing, and it probably won't affect him too badly; he came out with his hand taped up in the second half against UNC and hit his first shot, but since this is Virginia, and we can't have nice things around here, the key word is "probably."  Just wait til someone makes a point of thwacking his hand when he thinks he can get away with it.

-- Last week we had to put up with the rumors flying about Bill Lazor being a candidate for the OC job in Tampa Bay, under the Bucs' new coach Greg Schiano.  He didn't go, of course.  I tell you this not because I think you don't know about it, but just to remind you that this is now officially our little annual heart attack.  As long as the UVA offense is any good, that's how it's gonna be.  Don't set yourself up for disappointment by demanding to know why London doesn't hire the next Bud Foster, who's been with Tech forever, because Foster is one-of-a-kind.  You know the old saying about how you can have a job done three different ways (good, fast, or cheap) but you can only pick two?  It's like that with coordinators.  You can have young, loyal, or good, but you can only have two.  Good, loyal coordinators are almost always old.  Think Jim Reid.  Good young coordinators, the kind with a long career ahead of them, are upwardly mobile and ripe for the picking at any time.  Think Bill Lazor.  You don't want a young and loyal one.  Think Mike Groh.

-- Want to write a guest column?  Scroll down to Saturday's call for submissions for details.