What a drag this football team has become. It's a drag to watch. It's a drag to write about. It's a drag knowing we lost last week, we lost this week, and we'll lose again next week. And yes, I know that we didn't actually lose last week, but at 2-5, trudging our way through an unremarkable loss to yet another better-coached team, it sure has a way of feeling like that.
There are 128 teams in I-A football; 25 of them are currently out of legitimate bowl contention, which I define right now as being 2-5 or worse.** Exactly one of those 25 is in the ACC. That means more than 80% of the teams in the country remain interested in the proceedings. And with 80 slots, most of those fans will take home some kind of prize.
This should be a terrific time of year. These games only happen once a week - they should matter. Well, they do for most people. Most people are eagerly devouring details of Saturday's opponent, and when that day comes, well, it's one of only 12 all year so it's a big swing between winning and losing and your fortunes are either wonderfully uplifted or woefully downtrodden. Until the next week when you get to do it all over again.
That hasn't been the case around here for four years. Occasional smatterings of meaning have been tossed onto the canvas here and there like Jackson Pollock scooping from the bottom of the can, but in the end it's all come down to the same thing. Lose, complain about coaching, repeat. Saturday, I'll turn on the TV again, and I'll hope for a miracle, for some entertainment, for something good to happen, but certainly not expect it. Nobody's hanging on every play wondering whether it's the difference between Good Times and Bad Times, because we already know which way we're headed. We've already read the spoilers.
This is not interesting. This is utterly, incomprehensibly, lame. Football season has become a long slow walk to basketball season. If ESPN were smart they'd have ponied up for the rights to UVA vs. Morgan State on November 13; a whole legion of UVA fans are going to be so desperate for a rescue from the grind of watching this football team that they'll paste themselves to the screen for hoops.
The whole rest of the ACC is still shooting for something. Craig Littlepage, Jon Oliver, and Mike London have ensured that's not the case in Charlottesville.
**For the sake of expediency. I'm sure there are some three-win teams whose fans are already telling the in-laws, yes, we can visit for Christmas, we're not taking that trip to Florida after all.
-- I didn't hate the offensive gameplan this week. The run game worked - really, honest-to-God, properly worked. Give the O-line a pat on the back. Taquan Mizzell has never had a 100-yard game in college before; his next-best performance is barely half his new career high.
And I tipped my hat at those TE drag routes with the QB rollout. You don't want to get too reliant on plays where you have to eat it if the one option doesn't pan out, but regardless. (Tangent: that needs to be a goal-line play. Rollouts away from the blocking, with a following receiver like that, are close to foolproof inside the 2. Receiver open, throw it. Receiver covered, sprint for the pylon and dive. Even if your QB is fast and agile like Jared Lorenzen, he's still two yards tall.)
So yeah - whatever reason we lost the game, and it might've been the four interceptions, just guessing here - it mostly wasn't Steve Fairchild's fault. That said, I still hate that his go-to third-and-long play is a screen pass. That works never.
-- I also applaud the reasoning behind the attempted trick of waving off the "extra" player, because I'm just going to assume the coaches are self-aware of UVA's reputation for screwing up substitutions and figured if anyone could pull off a trick like that it would be UVA. Then again, if anyone could forget that the 12-men rule takes effect when you break the huddle and line up, rather than at the snap, it would also be UVA. The refs were nice and fooled, even if the UNC defenders can count to 11.
-- Nicholas Conte has a 46-yard punting average? I did not realize that. At least one of our players is earning an A+ for on-field play.
Showing posts with label fairchild. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fairchild. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
Tuesday, September 8, 2015
what's new is old again
Welp. Didn't take long. It hardly seems worth writing about the latest chapter in the Mike London story because it's so uncannily similar to most of the other ones. Talk up the latest new schemes, surprise with some swaggy hype-azz uniformz, lose by the book, chapter and verse. OK, sure, it lacked a little something in the clock-management dumbassery department, but London did burn at least two timeouts that I can remember just because of play-call confusion. So let's check that box.
Other boxes to check: annoying playcalling, offensive line depth biting us in the ass again, undisciplined penalties committed by seniors, crappy special teams, red zone ineptitude. The list goes on. A whole offseason and literally nothing has changed. I sound surprised here, which I guess I am a little, because this time I'm really gonna get to kick that football.
I really hated those helmets, by the way, which you can chalk mostly up to my reflexive get-off-my-lawnism about uniforms. UVA seems to be working on building a pretty solid brand identity. You can instantly recognize those gorgeous home whites the baseball team wears, and the school uses a uniform wordmark across most other teams, if not all of them.
Football? There's no brand identity anywhere. The navy blue helmets would work at least to anchor the zillion other looks they think are wonderful attention getters. Naw, let's ditch 'em and go with the marshmallow look. And the look on Saturday was a horrible mishmash. The pants are pure throwback - literally, because they come from the 1960s throwbacks they wore a while ago. The jerseys are a clean, unadorned, modern take on a classic look. And the helmets were $WAGGY HYPPPEEE, Oregon $tylez. Pick a look. (Preferably not swaggy hype.) There's absolutely no attempt at a brand, an identity, a foundation, it's just "hey this would be a cool idea," and they slap it up there and there's no reason to do it or even any connection with the rest of the athletic program.
I wouldn't usually spend two paragraphs on the uniforms, but if by now you can't get the connection to the actual state of the program then we'll just have to leave you here.
Notre Dame comes to town next weekend. Of the three difficult OOC games this is the one I expected to be toughest. They just got done steamtrucking Texas, so I think I'm still thinking that. If UVA is to steal an OOC win in one of those three games, Boise State is the place to look.
Some player-focused observations:
-- I was surprised Kelvin Rainey was credited with only five tackles. He seemed to be all over, making tackles in front of the secondary and generally being much more visible than you'd expect from a first-year starter. I liked it. And it looks clear too that Micah Kiser is the real deal.
-- I was much less pleased with the defensive ends. Mike Moore didn't look like a senior. Kwontie Moore was hardly visible. Trent Corney showed off his athleticism by actually juking his blocker, but then looked surprised that Josh Rosen actually moved away from the pressure. Fortunately, he kind of moved toward the rest of the defensive line, but Corney's tackle attempt on that particular play looked like he still hasn't picked up a lot of fundamentals.
-- Matt Johns reminds me of a youngish NASCAR driver who clearly can drive in the lower series but moves up to the big time and is stuck on an underfunded team with an uncompetitive car, which he can't crash because they can't afford replacements. He might compete for the winner's circle if he was allowed to drive aggressively into the corners, but he's just being asked to circle the track. That's Steve Fairchild's playbook in a nutshell. Johns can play quarterback, it's clear, but too often, he's not really allowed to. Sure, he threw a pick when he cut loose, just like the driver might find a wall or two the hard way. But in reading up about UCLA, one quote I saw was along the lines of Josh Rosen being handed the keys to a Ferrari, he just had to not crash it. Well, Rosen took a shot downfield the very first chance he got, and it's obvious he's not just driving the Ferrari around the block. Johns needs to be cut loose more too. He's capable of making it work.
Until then we'll just keep throwing screen passes on every third-and-long of the game which they totally won't be expecting this time.
-- One game in and the offensive line is already a smoking wreck. Eric Tetlow and Jake Fieler, out for the year. Ryan Doull and Sadiq Olanrewaju, no telling when they'll be back. Jay Whitmire, not ready to go full speed yet or he'd be out there at one of those positions somewhere. The interior line was absolutely owned; UCLA's DTs were exactly the problem I thought they'd be, and the "power running game" went exactly as far as I thought it would. I was openly skeptical of the power running thing; if I'd known we'd be missing four linemen going into the first game, I'd have been downright derisive.
That's OK, I'm sure we'll just recruit us a few more cornerbacks to make up for it.
It's pretty much official, I've skipped the optimistic, maybe-things-gonna-be-OK phase of the season and gone straight to snark. With any luck that'll last the next eleven (or twelve, if Lucy doesn't pull that football away again) games and we can minimize the burning apathy, which is all that's left at the end.
Other boxes to check: annoying playcalling, offensive line depth biting us in the ass again, undisciplined penalties committed by seniors, crappy special teams, red zone ineptitude. The list goes on. A whole offseason and literally nothing has changed. I sound surprised here, which I guess I am a little, because this time I'm really gonna get to kick that football.
I really hated those helmets, by the way, which you can chalk mostly up to my reflexive get-off-my-lawnism about uniforms. UVA seems to be working on building a pretty solid brand identity. You can instantly recognize those gorgeous home whites the baseball team wears, and the school uses a uniform wordmark across most other teams, if not all of them.
Football? There's no brand identity anywhere. The navy blue helmets would work at least to anchor the zillion other looks they think are wonderful attention getters. Naw, let's ditch 'em and go with the marshmallow look. And the look on Saturday was a horrible mishmash. The pants are pure throwback - literally, because they come from the 1960s throwbacks they wore a while ago. The jerseys are a clean, unadorned, modern take on a classic look. And the helmets were $WAGGY HYPPPEEE, Oregon $tylez. Pick a look. (Preferably not swaggy hype.) There's absolutely no attempt at a brand, an identity, a foundation, it's just "hey this would be a cool idea," and they slap it up there and there's no reason to do it or even any connection with the rest of the athletic program.
I wouldn't usually spend two paragraphs on the uniforms, but if by now you can't get the connection to the actual state of the program then we'll just have to leave you here.
Notre Dame comes to town next weekend. Of the three difficult OOC games this is the one I expected to be toughest. They just got done steamtrucking Texas, so I think I'm still thinking that. If UVA is to steal an OOC win in one of those three games, Boise State is the place to look.
Some player-focused observations:
-- I was surprised Kelvin Rainey was credited with only five tackles. He seemed to be all over, making tackles in front of the secondary and generally being much more visible than you'd expect from a first-year starter. I liked it. And it looks clear too that Micah Kiser is the real deal.
-- I was much less pleased with the defensive ends. Mike Moore didn't look like a senior. Kwontie Moore was hardly visible. Trent Corney showed off his athleticism by actually juking his blocker, but then looked surprised that Josh Rosen actually moved away from the pressure. Fortunately, he kind of moved toward the rest of the defensive line, but Corney's tackle attempt on that particular play looked like he still hasn't picked up a lot of fundamentals.
-- Matt Johns reminds me of a youngish NASCAR driver who clearly can drive in the lower series but moves up to the big time and is stuck on an underfunded team with an uncompetitive car, which he can't crash because they can't afford replacements. He might compete for the winner's circle if he was allowed to drive aggressively into the corners, but he's just being asked to circle the track. That's Steve Fairchild's playbook in a nutshell. Johns can play quarterback, it's clear, but too often, he's not really allowed to. Sure, he threw a pick when he cut loose, just like the driver might find a wall or two the hard way. But in reading up about UCLA, one quote I saw was along the lines of Josh Rosen being handed the keys to a Ferrari, he just had to not crash it. Well, Rosen took a shot downfield the very first chance he got, and it's obvious he's not just driving the Ferrari around the block. Johns needs to be cut loose more too. He's capable of making it work.
Until then we'll just keep throwing screen passes on every third-and-long of the game which they totally won't be expecting this time.
-- One game in and the offensive line is already a smoking wreck. Eric Tetlow and Jake Fieler, out for the year. Ryan Doull and Sadiq Olanrewaju, no telling when they'll be back. Jay Whitmire, not ready to go full speed yet or he'd be out there at one of those positions somewhere. The interior line was absolutely owned; UCLA's DTs were exactly the problem I thought they'd be, and the "power running game" went exactly as far as I thought it would. I was openly skeptical of the power running thing; if I'd known we'd be missing four linemen going into the first game, I'd have been downright derisive.
That's OK, I'm sure we'll just recruit us a few more cornerbacks to make up for it.
It's pretty much official, I've skipped the optimistic, maybe-things-gonna-be-OK phase of the season and gone straight to snark. With any luck that'll last the next eleven (or twelve, if Lucy doesn't pull that football away again) games and we can minimize the burning apathy, which is all that's left at the end.
Thursday, August 13, 2015
identity crisis
Football season is underway. Could you tell? Probably not from inside a UVA bubble. There's little excitement, little buzz, and little attention being paid to the Hoos by anyone outside the state. When attention is paid, it's almost always to the proverbial hot seat under Mike London's proverbial posterior. UVA fans weren't alone in being incredulous that London was kept around after last season. Grantland calls it "the utterly baffling phenomenon that is his continued employment by the Commonwealth of Virginia" as the grand finale to their hot-seat preview. The only other theme you ever really see is "tough schedule"; ESPN's ACC power rankings have UVA 12th out of 14, on the premise of "gee, this team is talented but that schedule is so hard." This more or less ignores their own player rankings which gave UVA exactly one player in the nation's top 100 and ACC's top 25. (Quin Blanding.)
The truth is the schedule isn't that hard. Sure, the nonconference schedule isn't piled high with weenies. It's basically Three Men and aBaby William & Mary. It's also two-thirds ACC. The Coastal Conference is the most milquetoast division in all of college football. If you think the conference schedule is overly challenging, there's a saying about suckers at the poker table, which applies here.
Sooner or later, and probably sooner but I've been burned by that assumption before, I'll write the obit for the London regime. It'll say the words quarterbacks about a hundred times. The list of things London has mismanaged is long and distinguished and - here's the scary part - mostly unfixable this year. He could address a few things, like the crappy special teams and his nonsensical clock management, but truly fixing them - no, that would take a couple years. In some cases because the issues are structural and in some cases because we need a couple years of evidence to call them fixed.
There is one place he can make tangible progress, though. Besides winning, there's one absolutely huge, glaring difference between the football team and the other major programs at this school: Identity. Basketball, baseball, lacrosse, you've seen what they've built and the reputations they have. A program's identity and its relationship to success is a little bit of a chicken-or-egg question, but a coach has gotta know what he stands for, and I don't mean getting his players to go to class. That's what drives your recruiting and your teaching and your coaching.
I know Mike London is a man of character and he wants his players to be great guys and hard-working and all that, but that's not really it. That doesn't translate into coaching and to the extent that it's translated into recruiting, it hasn't driven the on-field direction of the team. Tony Bennett recruits players of tremendous character, not just for the sake of it but because his incredibly successful system requires a ton of selflessness and trust in your teammates. Brian O'Connor recruits only college-enthusiastic players because it means he doesn't have to sweat out the draft and because they see Omaha as more than just a place where scouts gather.
What's Mike London's philosophy? Best I can tell, it's that athletes and speed make a football team and you can recruit a bunch of them and mold them into football players. Besides the obvious roster-management problems with this (essentially, these guys can only play three positions - WR, CB, S) it's sort of telling: even the one thing that London can be said to be consistent about is essentially a scattershot lottery. Take a decent-looking athlete and hope he develops. Trent Corney has for years now tantalized with his immense raw talent, and played almost never.
There are hopeful glimmers. They're not likely to be enough to save the regime, but they're out there, and all on defense, where the one truly credible name on the coaching staff resides. In just a couple short years Jon Tenuta has established his identity on his side of the ball, and you saw it emerge last year. Offense is a so-far hopeless cause; it's just kind of there and the coaches are still talking about changing its aims and goals. Now we want to be a power-running team, right after spending years neglecting O-line recruiting. That should work. Defense, though, is Tenuta's blitzy-blitz scheme and his disruption, and you can actually tell what he's trying to do.
This is the challenge that awaits the football team this year: On offense, start developing some kind of identity. Most successful football teams are known by what they do on offense. If they're going to put their chips on the power running game, that means they can't go out to Pasadena and start going all screen-happy again. The defense has to be able to keep up this year what they did last year, with almost entirely new front-seven personnel.
If London, Tenuta, and Steve Fairchild are successful in finally moving the football team toward a defined plan, an identity, a meaning, then they'll probably be at least somewhat successful in the one metric that matters, and they just might keep their jobs. If they can't, they won't get another chance.
The truth is the schedule isn't that hard. Sure, the nonconference schedule isn't piled high with weenies. It's basically Three Men and a
Sooner or later, and probably sooner but I've been burned by that assumption before, I'll write the obit for the London regime. It'll say the words quarterbacks about a hundred times. The list of things London has mismanaged is long and distinguished and - here's the scary part - mostly unfixable this year. He could address a few things, like the crappy special teams and his nonsensical clock management, but truly fixing them - no, that would take a couple years. In some cases because the issues are structural and in some cases because we need a couple years of evidence to call them fixed.
There is one place he can make tangible progress, though. Besides winning, there's one absolutely huge, glaring difference between the football team and the other major programs at this school: Identity. Basketball, baseball, lacrosse, you've seen what they've built and the reputations they have. A program's identity and its relationship to success is a little bit of a chicken-or-egg question, but a coach has gotta know what he stands for, and I don't mean getting his players to go to class. That's what drives your recruiting and your teaching and your coaching.
I know Mike London is a man of character and he wants his players to be great guys and hard-working and all that, but that's not really it. That doesn't translate into coaching and to the extent that it's translated into recruiting, it hasn't driven the on-field direction of the team. Tony Bennett recruits players of tremendous character, not just for the sake of it but because his incredibly successful system requires a ton of selflessness and trust in your teammates. Brian O'Connor recruits only college-enthusiastic players because it means he doesn't have to sweat out the draft and because they see Omaha as more than just a place where scouts gather.
What's Mike London's philosophy? Best I can tell, it's that athletes and speed make a football team and you can recruit a bunch of them and mold them into football players. Besides the obvious roster-management problems with this (essentially, these guys can only play three positions - WR, CB, S) it's sort of telling: even the one thing that London can be said to be consistent about is essentially a scattershot lottery. Take a decent-looking athlete and hope he develops. Trent Corney has for years now tantalized with his immense raw talent, and played almost never.
There are hopeful glimmers. They're not likely to be enough to save the regime, but they're out there, and all on defense, where the one truly credible name on the coaching staff resides. In just a couple short years Jon Tenuta has established his identity on his side of the ball, and you saw it emerge last year. Offense is a so-far hopeless cause; it's just kind of there and the coaches are still talking about changing its aims and goals. Now we want to be a power-running team, right after spending years neglecting O-line recruiting. That should work. Defense, though, is Tenuta's blitzy-blitz scheme and his disruption, and you can actually tell what he's trying to do.
This is the challenge that awaits the football team this year: On offense, start developing some kind of identity. Most successful football teams are known by what they do on offense. If they're going to put their chips on the power running game, that means they can't go out to Pasadena and start going all screen-happy again. The defense has to be able to keep up this year what they did last year, with almost entirely new front-seven personnel.
If London, Tenuta, and Steve Fairchild are successful in finally moving the football team toward a defined plan, an identity, a meaning, then they'll probably be at least somewhat successful in the one metric that matters, and they just might keep their jobs. If they can't, they won't get another chance.
Sunday, October 26, 2014
tipping point
It's not always you can tell exactly when the end comes. You could call us fortunate in that regard. We can debate for a long time why Mike London has not succeeded as UVA's head coach, and will not succeed as UVA's head coach, but at least now we know when it ended. As soon as the ball landed in the hands of a UNC defensive lineman during a horribly ill-advised screen pass. Flip the switch, turn out the lights, and start the search.
Kevin Parks talked about a knife to the gut, and it's extremely hard not to feel bad for the guy. The ball was taken out of his hands by the coaching staff. I don't get it. The announcers spent the whole game talking about Parks and how the coaching staff raves about his character and talent - which is great, and I believe it 100%. Now I'm just wondering when the staff plans on using that to their benefit. Parks was left waiting for a pass that never got there, which is somehow sadly fitting.
Sure, there's four games left. Anything could happen and so on and so forth. I don't see it. Not from a coaching staff that constantly puts its players in position to fail. It's everything from the preposterous to the amateurish. After five years, Mike London still can't figure out how to make sure the right number of players go on the field. It's not even the first time, nor is it the first time a special teams unit ran pell-mell down the field without caring where the ball was. You can look it up. It's a pitiful disservice to his guys.
There's one thing left to hope for: sending him off with a win on Thanksgiving. Maybe a bowl game in Shreveport or Detroit. If the Hoos can figure out how to beat a Georgia Tech team that just dropped 56 points on Pittsburgh, or a Miami team that looks like the division's best so far. Maybe the VT game can be a 5-6 Thunderdome match. Two teams enter, one team leaves bowl-eligible. Not what anyone envisioned, that's for sure.
**************************************************
Let's talk offense for a little here. One of the most common complaints about Steve Fairchild is that the offense is "vanilla." It's time to put that to rest once and for all. Next time you hear someone complain that it's "vanilla," just know they're only saying that as a reflex action. The design is actually rather good, and here's the thing: I really like it. UVA ran a couple reverses and a tricky WR pass that Lambert caught, the second WR pass they've run this year. There was plenty of downfield passing. Lots of different players are involved. This is not just some handoff-handoff-dump pass-punt crap. This is pretty complex.
And here's what I like best: Most run plays are run from a look that could send the ball any one of three different ways. You have a shotgun look with a running back next to the QB. A receiver (or someone like Taquan Mizzell) goes in motion and the snap is timed so that the motion man arrives just about the same time the snap does. This isn't easy; the quarterback needs a lot of reps to get that timing down. Then the QB can hand to the motion man, he can hand to the RB, or he can simply take it himself. I don't think this is ever read-option, even though it was called that when Fairchild first got here. It just looks like one. I think this is called by the coaches. That's just fine. The point is that the defense has to hesitate a split second before committing to a ballcarrier. This has given the O-line room to execute a block, and in turn, the run game is fairly productive. This is despite an O-line lacking badly in experience and held together with chicken wire and duct tape.
I have just about no problems with the design of this offense. Given an experienced, healthy O-line and maybe a real explosion threat at receiver, which is missing right now, you could really see some fireworks with this offense. However, I have huge problems with the execution. Fairchild isn't too vanilla, he's too goddam tricky. Too fast to abandon what's working, too quick to try and out-chess-match the other DC. Here's how you coach the last drive** that ended in the screen pass pick: You call together your O-linemen. You get in their faces and inform them - loudly - that the plan is to stuff the ball down the throats of those no-tackling pretenders over there and they'd better hit some SOB as hard as they can and the devil take the hindmost. And then you three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust your way to a win. Especially when you're one more first down away from game-clinching field goal. When, on the other hand, the trick play you so desperately want to run is so damn predictable that the announcers had you pegged, you're doing it wrong. I don't blame Greyson Lambert one bit for the pickoff. I blame Mr. Tricky up in the booth.
(I do, though, think the first one was totally on Lambert. You gotta know in that case: an incompletion is just as good as a dumpoff. They both mean a field goal. Some people called it bad luck that the ball landed in the hands of a defender, but, no, that's entirely predictable when you throw toward that many defenders.
**I know, I know: said the keyboard jockey who's never coached a game of football in his life. But then, the guys who do coach for a living, aren't exactly doing a better job.
**************************************************
So, let's review some predictions:
- Greyson Lambert starts. Yup.
- The UVA passing game generates over 300 yards. Ah, bummer - they were close at 284. And getting to 300 probably would've won the game.
- UVA passes more than they run. The Hoos attempted 41 passes and were credited with 43 runs, but one sack by UNC makes it an exactly even split. Still not good enough.
- UNC also passes for more than 300 yards. They did not, which is rather a credit to the defense.
- Zero sacks again for UVA, but not zero turnovers. Half right is wrong.
- UNC averages fewer than 4 yards a carry. UNC's running game was absolutely stuffed. Very good work there by the defense, again.
New stats:
16-of-41 on specifics (39%.)
4-3 straight up
3-2-1 ATS
Kevin Parks talked about a knife to the gut, and it's extremely hard not to feel bad for the guy. The ball was taken out of his hands by the coaching staff. I don't get it. The announcers spent the whole game talking about Parks and how the coaching staff raves about his character and talent - which is great, and I believe it 100%. Now I'm just wondering when the staff plans on using that to their benefit. Parks was left waiting for a pass that never got there, which is somehow sadly fitting.
Sure, there's four games left. Anything could happen and so on and so forth. I don't see it. Not from a coaching staff that constantly puts its players in position to fail. It's everything from the preposterous to the amateurish. After five years, Mike London still can't figure out how to make sure the right number of players go on the field. It's not even the first time, nor is it the first time a special teams unit ran pell-mell down the field without caring where the ball was. You can look it up. It's a pitiful disservice to his guys.
There's one thing left to hope for: sending him off with a win on Thanksgiving. Maybe a bowl game in Shreveport or Detroit. If the Hoos can figure out how to beat a Georgia Tech team that just dropped 56 points on Pittsburgh, or a Miami team that looks like the division's best so far. Maybe the VT game can be a 5-6 Thunderdome match. Two teams enter, one team leaves bowl-eligible. Not what anyone envisioned, that's for sure.
**************************************************
Let's talk offense for a little here. One of the most common complaints about Steve Fairchild is that the offense is "vanilla." It's time to put that to rest once and for all. Next time you hear someone complain that it's "vanilla," just know they're only saying that as a reflex action. The design is actually rather good, and here's the thing: I really like it. UVA ran a couple reverses and a tricky WR pass that Lambert caught, the second WR pass they've run this year. There was plenty of downfield passing. Lots of different players are involved. This is not just some handoff-handoff-dump pass-punt crap. This is pretty complex.
And here's what I like best: Most run plays are run from a look that could send the ball any one of three different ways. You have a shotgun look with a running back next to the QB. A receiver (or someone like Taquan Mizzell) goes in motion and the snap is timed so that the motion man arrives just about the same time the snap does. This isn't easy; the quarterback needs a lot of reps to get that timing down. Then the QB can hand to the motion man, he can hand to the RB, or he can simply take it himself. I don't think this is ever read-option, even though it was called that when Fairchild first got here. It just looks like one. I think this is called by the coaches. That's just fine. The point is that the defense has to hesitate a split second before committing to a ballcarrier. This has given the O-line room to execute a block, and in turn, the run game is fairly productive. This is despite an O-line lacking badly in experience and held together with chicken wire and duct tape.
I have just about no problems with the design of this offense. Given an experienced, healthy O-line and maybe a real explosion threat at receiver, which is missing right now, you could really see some fireworks with this offense. However, I have huge problems with the execution. Fairchild isn't too vanilla, he's too goddam tricky. Too fast to abandon what's working, too quick to try and out-chess-match the other DC. Here's how you coach the last drive** that ended in the screen pass pick: You call together your O-linemen. You get in their faces and inform them - loudly - that the plan is to stuff the ball down the throats of those no-tackling pretenders over there and they'd better hit some SOB as hard as they can and the devil take the hindmost. And then you three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust your way to a win. Especially when you're one more first down away from game-clinching field goal. When, on the other hand, the trick play you so desperately want to run is so damn predictable that the announcers had you pegged, you're doing it wrong. I don't blame Greyson Lambert one bit for the pickoff. I blame Mr. Tricky up in the booth.
(I do, though, think the first one was totally on Lambert. You gotta know in that case: an incompletion is just as good as a dumpoff. They both mean a field goal. Some people called it bad luck that the ball landed in the hands of a defender, but, no, that's entirely predictable when you throw toward that many defenders.
**I know, I know: said the keyboard jockey who's never coached a game of football in his life. But then, the guys who do coach for a living, aren't exactly doing a better job.
**************************************************
So, let's review some predictions:
- Greyson Lambert starts. Yup.
- The UVA passing game generates over 300 yards. Ah, bummer - they were close at 284. And getting to 300 probably would've won the game.
- UVA passes more than they run. The Hoos attempted 41 passes and were credited with 43 runs, but one sack by UNC makes it an exactly even split. Still not good enough.
- UNC also passes for more than 300 yards. They did not, which is rather a credit to the defense.
- Zero sacks again for UVA, but not zero turnovers. Half right is wrong.
- UNC averages fewer than 4 yards a carry. UNC's running game was absolutely stuffed. Very good work there by the defense, again.
New stats:
16-of-41 on specifics (39%.)
4-3 straight up
3-2-1 ATS
Monday, October 20, 2014
the devil take it
I'd been preaching the past few weeks that it wasn't real likely that everything was gonna go right in the second half of the season, but I gotta admit I wasn't too sure what that would look like. No, I wasn't very excited to find out, thank you. In a nutshell, the answer is:
-- A really bad offensive game plan, badly executed
-- An opposing offensive game plan perfectly suited to nullify the strength of our defense
The latter is actually a little bit encouraging. The pass rush was taken entirely out of the equation, Anthony Boone wasn't touched, and the defense still only allowed 20 points. (Though aided somewhat by Boone's inaccuracy.) There are definitely worse offenses left on the schedule, one of which was on display Thursday night.
Our own offense was a massive disappointment, though. Yes, dropped passes hurt, and yes, Matt Johns missed some very open receivers deep. That's not the worst part, though. The worst part is that Duke's defense has been very, very amenable to jamming the ball down their throat, as evidenced by the fact that some of the shittiest teams in all of D-I football have done just that, and UVA elected to pass more than 60% of the time.
Let's put this in perspective: Duke has a very poor run defense and a very good pass defense. You have a senior running back and a sophomore quarterback.** You are presented with a wall of paper and a wall of brick, and you can either use a flamethrower on the paper or a rubber mallet on the brick. You chose the mallet.
So yes, Matt Johns was mostly off-target with sporadic displays of brilliance, but nobody blames the foot soldiers for the failure of Pickett's Charge. The coaches had an obvious chance to set their players up for success, and instead got outcoached on two weeks of preparation by a staff with one week of preparation. It's not hard to see why there's still plenty of angst about the future of the program.
It's a sobering reminder of where our ambitions should be. A division title would be cool, and jeez, even reachable, but we're probably gonna have to dial that back a bit. I don't like it one bit, but an offense that spins its wheels as much as this one hasn't earned much confidence in the future. 13 points against that defense is just - ugh, I'm forced to deploy the word of choice for drunken Saturday-night quarterbacks everywhere - unacceptable.
**And your senior running back routinely turns in awesome performances in the state of North Carolina, because he's pissed off that none of the teams there recruited him. GIVE HIM THE BALL!
Bullets:
-- Short-side east-west plays (the bane of my existence) and poor run-pass balance aren't the only coaching bugaboos to make a triumphant return. Crappy timeout usage was also costly. Not as costly as other stuff, but still.
-- I really do not like the orange helmets with gray facemasks. Really ugly when not part of a throwback. It's amazing how the wrong helmet turns one of the classiest looks we've ever had into one of the worst.
-- I don't want to do the research on this myself, because it'd take forever, but I wonder when the last time was that a college quarterback completed less than half his passes for over 300 yards. Johns was nine yards shy of the sophomore record (Matt Schaub, 334) and would've threatened (if not completely blown past) the single-game record of 393 (Schaub, again) with a little more accuracy on some of those deep balls. Or fewer dropped passes.
-- Another thing I hate: Receiving the opening kickoff. You basically have to score right there, on that drive, or else you've blown the whole advantage of it. Anything else - anything at all - and the other team, especially in their own stadium, gets to start the game on a momentum high. Another reason, by the way, that all that passing was stupid. Nothing would've been as perfect as taking the opening kick and spending the next seven minutes grinding out as many rushing yards as your heart desired. Send the message that we're gonna do this all day so you might as well lose hope now.
Prediction review:
-- Kevin Parks runs for over 100 yards. Well, maybe if he'd been given any carries.
-- Greyson Lambert (or our starting quarterback) attempts fewer than 20 passes. I really need to stop making predictions based on what I would do.
-- UVA loses the turnover battle. This did happen, although the general point was to build a narrative where UVA was good enough to overcome doing so.
-- Duke's run game is more than a yard worse than their average. No, and Duke was surprisingly and annoyingly effective on the ground.
-- Quin Blanding has 10 or more tackles. Blanding had nine; it was Anthony Harris who had the big day in the secondary with 14
-- UVA wins time of possession by six or more minutes. The Hoos did win this battle, but not by that much.
New prediction stats:
14-for-35 on specifics (40%)
4-2 straight up
2-2-1 ATS
*************************************************
Two things happened over the weekend worth discussing. Well, Thursday and then Monday.
The Monday thing is Tony Bennett building up his 2016 class with the addition of Indiana guard Kyle Guy. As with Ty Jerome, the first member of the class, I'm gonna wait til these guys finish their junior years before even bothering with trying a profile. But know this: The Indiana schools normally have the state of Indiana on lockdown, and if not them, the state's high-profile recruits still choose a school close by. In 2012, for example, the state produced eight four-star prospects (by Rivals' reckoning.) Three went to IU, two to Purdue, and one each to Butler, Michigan, and MSU.
In fact, going back to the 2009 class, there've been about 30 four-star or above prospects (Rivals, again) to come out of the state of Indiana - exactly one of them went to a school somewhere other than the state of Indiana or one of its direct neighbors. Guy is the second.
The 2016 class is shaping up to be perhaps Tony's most heralded class of his UVA tenure; it now needs some lengthy wing types, as the only three on the 2016-2017 depth chart is Marial Shayok. Highly fluid is the world of basketball recruiting, which is why I don't cover it til after the commitments happen; that said, if you don't know the name Mamadi Diakite yet, learn it.
The Thursday thing was the VT game against Pitt, which I watched from start to finish, the first time I'd done so all year. I came away with a few opinions, naturally:
-- VT gets horrible safety play. Before the game I'd noticed, during my stat-digging, that they've been prone to giving up long pass plays, a surefire indicator that safeties aren't in the right place at the right time. Kyshoen Jarrett's awful angle on a long Tyler Boyd touchdown, as pointed out by the announcers, drove that point home. Their corners are more or less as advertised (which is to say, very good), but the safeties - woof.
-- Michael Brewer is a good quarterback about 25% of the time.
-- VT's offensive line is fun to watch, if you like defensive line play. Pitt's Nicholas Grigsby is not an elite defender by anyone's measurement, but on one play he blew untouched past VT's right tackle, McLaughlin. Eli Harold and Max Valles should have an enjoyable day on Thanksgiving weekend.
-- You would expect that at least VT's run defense would be up to snuff, but James Conner and Chad Voytik ran wild all evening.
-- Did the Hokies do anything right? Not a lot, when you're looking at no first downs in the first quarter-and-a-half. But besides their excellent cornerbacks, Isaiah Ford and Cam Phillips make for a very impressive pair of freshman receivers. DT Corey Marshall did a nice job on one play of dropping back into coverage and it resulted in a pickoff, a dangerous thing for our short-tossing pass offense. (Though, most short passes go toward the sideline rather than dunkoffs over the middle.)
I'm really rooting for Miami in Lane Stadium next week - I mean, besides the whole thing about let's not root for Tech to win anything, VT is in the middle of their special scheduling handjob the ACC gives them literally every year. (Except last year, which caused them no end of distress about having to do something most teams routinely do.) Seeing them go 0-for-2 on Thursdays, well, it'd be no less than they deserve for the special treatment they get. Their next three opponents - Miami, BC, Duke - all have very strong running games, and if they don't get their run defense act together at least once, UVA will have the chance to deliver the death blow to their bowl eligibility hopes.
-- A really bad offensive game plan, badly executed
-- An opposing offensive game plan perfectly suited to nullify the strength of our defense
The latter is actually a little bit encouraging. The pass rush was taken entirely out of the equation, Anthony Boone wasn't touched, and the defense still only allowed 20 points. (Though aided somewhat by Boone's inaccuracy.) There are definitely worse offenses left on the schedule, one of which was on display Thursday night.
Our own offense was a massive disappointment, though. Yes, dropped passes hurt, and yes, Matt Johns missed some very open receivers deep. That's not the worst part, though. The worst part is that Duke's defense has been very, very amenable to jamming the ball down their throat, as evidenced by the fact that some of the shittiest teams in all of D-I football have done just that, and UVA elected to pass more than 60% of the time.
Let's put this in perspective: Duke has a very poor run defense and a very good pass defense. You have a senior running back and a sophomore quarterback.** You are presented with a wall of paper and a wall of brick, and you can either use a flamethrower on the paper or a rubber mallet on the brick. You chose the mallet.
So yes, Matt Johns was mostly off-target with sporadic displays of brilliance, but nobody blames the foot soldiers for the failure of Pickett's Charge. The coaches had an obvious chance to set their players up for success, and instead got outcoached on two weeks of preparation by a staff with one week of preparation. It's not hard to see why there's still plenty of angst about the future of the program.
It's a sobering reminder of where our ambitions should be. A division title would be cool, and jeez, even reachable, but we're probably gonna have to dial that back a bit. I don't like it one bit, but an offense that spins its wheels as much as this one hasn't earned much confidence in the future. 13 points against that defense is just - ugh, I'm forced to deploy the word of choice for drunken Saturday-night quarterbacks everywhere - unacceptable.
**And your senior running back routinely turns in awesome performances in the state of North Carolina, because he's pissed off that none of the teams there recruited him. GIVE HIM THE BALL!
Bullets:
-- Short-side east-west plays (the bane of my existence) and poor run-pass balance aren't the only coaching bugaboos to make a triumphant return. Crappy timeout usage was also costly. Not as costly as other stuff, but still.
-- I really do not like the orange helmets with gray facemasks. Really ugly when not part of a throwback. It's amazing how the wrong helmet turns one of the classiest looks we've ever had into one of the worst.
-- I don't want to do the research on this myself, because it'd take forever, but I wonder when the last time was that a college quarterback completed less than half his passes for over 300 yards. Johns was nine yards shy of the sophomore record (Matt Schaub, 334) and would've threatened (if not completely blown past) the single-game record of 393 (Schaub, again) with a little more accuracy on some of those deep balls. Or fewer dropped passes.
-- Another thing I hate: Receiving the opening kickoff. You basically have to score right there, on that drive, or else you've blown the whole advantage of it. Anything else - anything at all - and the other team, especially in their own stadium, gets to start the game on a momentum high. Another reason, by the way, that all that passing was stupid. Nothing would've been as perfect as taking the opening kick and spending the next seven minutes grinding out as many rushing yards as your heart desired. Send the message that we're gonna do this all day so you might as well lose hope now.
Prediction review:
-- Kevin Parks runs for over 100 yards. Well, maybe if he'd been given any carries.
-- Greyson Lambert (or our starting quarterback) attempts fewer than 20 passes. I really need to stop making predictions based on what I would do.
-- UVA loses the turnover battle. This did happen, although the general point was to build a narrative where UVA was good enough to overcome doing so.
-- Duke's run game is more than a yard worse than their average. No, and Duke was surprisingly and annoyingly effective on the ground.
-- Quin Blanding has 10 or more tackles. Blanding had nine; it was Anthony Harris who had the big day in the secondary with 14
-- UVA wins time of possession by six or more minutes. The Hoos did win this battle, but not by that much.
New prediction stats:
14-for-35 on specifics (40%)
4-2 straight up
2-2-1 ATS
*************************************************
Two things happened over the weekend worth discussing. Well, Thursday and then Monday.
The Monday thing is Tony Bennett building up his 2016 class with the addition of Indiana guard Kyle Guy. As with Ty Jerome, the first member of the class, I'm gonna wait til these guys finish their junior years before even bothering with trying a profile. But know this: The Indiana schools normally have the state of Indiana on lockdown, and if not them, the state's high-profile recruits still choose a school close by. In 2012, for example, the state produced eight four-star prospects (by Rivals' reckoning.) Three went to IU, two to Purdue, and one each to Butler, Michigan, and MSU.
In fact, going back to the 2009 class, there've been about 30 four-star or above prospects (Rivals, again) to come out of the state of Indiana - exactly one of them went to a school somewhere other than the state of Indiana or one of its direct neighbors. Guy is the second.
The 2016 class is shaping up to be perhaps Tony's most heralded class of his UVA tenure; it now needs some lengthy wing types, as the only three on the 2016-2017 depth chart is Marial Shayok. Highly fluid is the world of basketball recruiting, which is why I don't cover it til after the commitments happen; that said, if you don't know the name Mamadi Diakite yet, learn it.
The Thursday thing was the VT game against Pitt, which I watched from start to finish, the first time I'd done so all year. I came away with a few opinions, naturally:
-- VT gets horrible safety play. Before the game I'd noticed, during my stat-digging, that they've been prone to giving up long pass plays, a surefire indicator that safeties aren't in the right place at the right time. Kyshoen Jarrett's awful angle on a long Tyler Boyd touchdown, as pointed out by the announcers, drove that point home. Their corners are more or less as advertised (which is to say, very good), but the safeties - woof.
-- Michael Brewer is a good quarterback about 25% of the time.
-- VT's offensive line is fun to watch, if you like defensive line play. Pitt's Nicholas Grigsby is not an elite defender by anyone's measurement, but on one play he blew untouched past VT's right tackle, McLaughlin. Eli Harold and Max Valles should have an enjoyable day on Thanksgiving weekend.
-- You would expect that at least VT's run defense would be up to snuff, but James Conner and Chad Voytik ran wild all evening.
-- Did the Hokies do anything right? Not a lot, when you're looking at no first downs in the first quarter-and-a-half. But besides their excellent cornerbacks, Isaiah Ford and Cam Phillips make for a very impressive pair of freshman receivers. DT Corey Marshall did a nice job on one play of dropping back into coverage and it resulted in a pickoff, a dangerous thing for our short-tossing pass offense. (Though, most short passes go toward the sideline rather than dunkoffs over the middle.)
I'm really rooting for Miami in Lane Stadium next week - I mean, besides the whole thing about let's not root for Tech to win anything, VT is in the middle of their special scheduling handjob the ACC gives them literally every year. (Except last year, which caused them no end of distress about having to do something most teams routinely do.) Seeing them go 0-for-2 on Thursdays, well, it'd be no less than they deserve for the special treatment they get. Their next three opponents - Miami, BC, Duke - all have very strong running games, and if they don't get their run defense act together at least once, UVA will have the chance to deliver the death blow to their bowl eligibility hopes.
Friday, December 13, 2013
what went right
In a 2-10 season, very little. But we're going to try and put on a smiley face and see if there weren't a few nuggets of goodness here and there. It's kind of a fake smiley face, mind you.
Also, as good as Brent Urban was this year, we're going to limit it to things that can be applied to next year. That way there's no false hope. Nope, nothing but real optimism in this post.
Kevin Parks
Parks recorded the first 1,000-yard season by a UVA back since Alvin Pearman in 2004. This is a pretty nice individual achievement. I'm going to break my optimism rule, though, by pointing out that it was largely due to not having to extensively share carries. Several seasons since then, there would've been a 1,000-yard rusher if the carries had not been split, and that 2004 season almost had two such accomplishments, with Wali Lundy falling 100-and-some short. Even the much-maligned Michael Johnson looked awfully good that year. UVA had a powerful rushing attack in 2004.
Still. The more-overarching point to this is that Steve Fairchild deserves a pretty good deal of credit for this. Parks is a solid back with good vision and balance and he hits a hole pretty quick. And, obviously, highly durable. But he's also thoroughly unexplosive; he had just one run all season over 50 yards, and in seven of twelve games, didn't pass 20 on any one run. This means he can't pad out his stats by being bottled up all game and then bursting through for one huge run to make the whole day look good. In order for Parks to rack up yards, he has to do it on a lot of different plays, and he needs good blocking to do it.
And this was an offensive line that lost most of its physical battles. So how to get an unexplosive back running behind an unproductive line to the 1,000-yard marker? Schemes. Fairchild's playbook deserves much of the credit for the accomplishment. It's why when the whole fanbase is giving him an F-minus, I give Fairchild a C. I had as much hate and discontent as anyone over things like short-side sweeps on 4th-and-2, but we have to apply Sherlock Holmes's maxim here. When you've eliminated all else, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth. Parks didn't get to 1,000 yard by racing away from defenders and he didn't get there because the offensive line blew open holes for him. What remains is Fairchild, however, unpopular a conclusion that may be.
Anthony Harris
Actually this sort of breaks another rule, the one about being able to apply this stuff to next year, because seasons like Harris's regress to the mean most of the time. Still, you just can't knock the nation's interceptions leader. The problem with a safety, unfortunately, is that a good one cannot make a bad defense good, but a bad one can make a good defense bad.
So the defense as a whole didn't really follow suit. But a guy with instincts like Harris's, but with 12 extra games under his belt, ought to be a force on the field next year.
Eric Smith
Smith was a true freshman on the offensive line, which at times went about how you'd expect. Georgia Tech was a particular case, in which Smith had to go up against Jeremiah Attaochu all day and spent the whole day eating Attaochu's cleats. Sometimes he was just freshman-y.
Sometimes, though, he was fantastic. Clemson's Vic Beasley finished the season with 12 sacks, but never recorded one against Smith and UVA. Smith had a good game against VT as well, and over the course of the season, the good outweighed the bad. UVA has a good one in Smith, who could be the left tackle for the next three years.
Linebackers
I asserted early in the season, here and on TheSabre too, that I thought Daquan Romero should be the top candidate to lead the team in tackles. I ended up being off by two; Henry Coley nudged him out 91-89. Both Coley and Romero showed impressive instincts this year; Romero was particularly excellent at sniffing out and blowing up screen plays.
Combined with Harris, these two will give UVA more quarterbacks on defense next year than it knows what to do with. Their ranginess gave Jon Tenuta confidence enough to use his third linebacker spot on Max Valles, who couldn't do much more than pass rush.
Eli Harold
Not only did he pile up eight sacks, he averaged 10 yards on them.
******************************************
There are a few honorable mention names that don't really qualify as full bright spots. David Dean piled up very nice numbers for a DT but generally needed Brent Urban next to him. Without Urban, teams tended to smother Dean. Hopefully next year as he becomes an upperclassman he'll be the guy opening up a lane for his neighbor. Daniel Hamm had that one really nice game; pity he got relegated to the back of the bench anyway. Khalek Shepherd, when healthy, was a nice change of pace back. Urban, of course, was outstanding, and his loss probably cost UVA a win somewhere along the line.
Everything else that happened pretty much earns a D at best. And if there's a grade lower than F-minus-minus-minus, I'll hand it out to the quarterbacks and receivers. Can you get a Z-minus? At least, though, a few players kept us interested. Bravo to that. I have every confidence this team can show the progress it needs to double its win total next year.
Also, as good as Brent Urban was this year, we're going to limit it to things that can be applied to next year. That way there's no false hope. Nope, nothing but real optimism in this post.
Kevin Parks
Parks recorded the first 1,000-yard season by a UVA back since Alvin Pearman in 2004. This is a pretty nice individual achievement. I'm going to break my optimism rule, though, by pointing out that it was largely due to not having to extensively share carries. Several seasons since then, there would've been a 1,000-yard rusher if the carries had not been split, and that 2004 season almost had two such accomplishments, with Wali Lundy falling 100-and-some short. Even the much-maligned Michael Johnson looked awfully good that year. UVA had a powerful rushing attack in 2004.
Still. The more-overarching point to this is that Steve Fairchild deserves a pretty good deal of credit for this. Parks is a solid back with good vision and balance and he hits a hole pretty quick. And, obviously, highly durable. But he's also thoroughly unexplosive; he had just one run all season over 50 yards, and in seven of twelve games, didn't pass 20 on any one run. This means he can't pad out his stats by being bottled up all game and then bursting through for one huge run to make the whole day look good. In order for Parks to rack up yards, he has to do it on a lot of different plays, and he needs good blocking to do it.
And this was an offensive line that lost most of its physical battles. So how to get an unexplosive back running behind an unproductive line to the 1,000-yard marker? Schemes. Fairchild's playbook deserves much of the credit for the accomplishment. It's why when the whole fanbase is giving him an F-minus, I give Fairchild a C. I had as much hate and discontent as anyone over things like short-side sweeps on 4th-and-2, but we have to apply Sherlock Holmes's maxim here. When you've eliminated all else, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth. Parks didn't get to 1,000 yard by racing away from defenders and he didn't get there because the offensive line blew open holes for him. What remains is Fairchild, however, unpopular a conclusion that may be.
Anthony Harris
Actually this sort of breaks another rule, the one about being able to apply this stuff to next year, because seasons like Harris's regress to the mean most of the time. Still, you just can't knock the nation's interceptions leader. The problem with a safety, unfortunately, is that a good one cannot make a bad defense good, but a bad one can make a good defense bad.
So the defense as a whole didn't really follow suit. But a guy with instincts like Harris's, but with 12 extra games under his belt, ought to be a force on the field next year.
Eric Smith
Smith was a true freshman on the offensive line, which at times went about how you'd expect. Georgia Tech was a particular case, in which Smith had to go up against Jeremiah Attaochu all day and spent the whole day eating Attaochu's cleats. Sometimes he was just freshman-y.
Sometimes, though, he was fantastic. Clemson's Vic Beasley finished the season with 12 sacks, but never recorded one against Smith and UVA. Smith had a good game against VT as well, and over the course of the season, the good outweighed the bad. UVA has a good one in Smith, who could be the left tackle for the next three years.
Linebackers
I asserted early in the season, here and on TheSabre too, that I thought Daquan Romero should be the top candidate to lead the team in tackles. I ended up being off by two; Henry Coley nudged him out 91-89. Both Coley and Romero showed impressive instincts this year; Romero was particularly excellent at sniffing out and blowing up screen plays.
Combined with Harris, these two will give UVA more quarterbacks on defense next year than it knows what to do with. Their ranginess gave Jon Tenuta confidence enough to use his third linebacker spot on Max Valles, who couldn't do much more than pass rush.
Eli Harold
Not only did he pile up eight sacks, he averaged 10 yards on them.
******************************************
There are a few honorable mention names that don't really qualify as full bright spots. David Dean piled up very nice numbers for a DT but generally needed Brent Urban next to him. Without Urban, teams tended to smother Dean. Hopefully next year as he becomes an upperclassman he'll be the guy opening up a lane for his neighbor. Daniel Hamm had that one really nice game; pity he got relegated to the back of the bench anyway. Khalek Shepherd, when healthy, was a nice change of pace back. Urban, of course, was outstanding, and his loss probably cost UVA a win somewhere along the line.
Everything else that happened pretty much earns a D at best. And if there's a grade lower than F-minus-minus-minus, I'll hand it out to the quarterbacks and receivers. Can you get a Z-minus? At least, though, a few players kept us interested. Bravo to that. I have every confidence this team can show the progress it needs to double its win total next year.
Sunday, October 27, 2013
the stat sheet says we won
And the scoreboard says we lost.
We will jump right into the bullet points because there's no need to construct a narrative here. 376 yards of passing and a +5 non-desperation-time turnover margin, and a loss, says all that needs to be said. It takes a pretty awful team to lose under those circumstances. So. Bullet points.
-- It was mentioned during the game that David Watford set new UVA records for completions and attempts. The interesting part was that he broke the completions record before the attempts record. The other interesting part was that both previous records were set by Matt Schaub, in another loss to Georgia Tech some 11 years ago.
-- I think Steve Fairchild called some occasionally stupid plays (you're trying to pick up a critical fourth down and you call for a pass to Billy Skrobacz? Not to demean Skrobacz, but he's a fullback, and therefore not particularly likely to be open unless the defense fails to account for him entirely. There wasn't another playmaker somewhere on the roster?) But overall Fairchild's scheme is starting to work nicely. Some "too horizontal" criticisms should be laid to rest. Clearly, if Fairchild has the WRs to stretch the field, he'll use them, as evidenced by Tim Smith's excellent day. I consider 13 yards per catch the dividing line between short-field possession receivers and long-field deep threats; Smith finally averaged over 15, and given the day from him and Darius Jennings, plus a couple of fine catches by Canaan Severin, I gotta give the receivers an A this week.
-- That said, before checking the box score I would have sworn that Watford's average yards per throw was much higher than 6.1. Seemed like there were plenty of downfield throws, and Watford completed over 70%. But nope. Barely six yards per throw again. So not all the concerns are laid to rest. But Watford laid in a few really nice throws, and if he can bring on the consistency in that department he'll change the dynamic quite a bit.
-- OK, the big issue: second-quarter clock management. The refs pretty ridiculously let five seconds run off the clock before deigning to acknowledge Mike London's timeout. But if you're going to call a run play, it doesn't really matter; neither six nor eleven seconds are enough time to run the ball and then get the field goal unit on. Nor is eleven seconds even enough time to run the ball and then spike it, given the time needed to untangle the pile.
The run play is mildly defensible since, you know, give the ball to your best player. Kevin Parks had already had a touchdown that entirely consisted of yards after contact. But on the other hand, you're putting the game in the hands of your weakest unit (the O-line) and you know this shit didn't work against Maryland so why would it now?
-- I would've also liked to see an onside kick after the touchdown and 2PC that made it 28-25, but I can see the argument for not doing so. Just get a three-and-out and you're fine.
-- Watford might've had an even better day throwing the ball, but Eric Smith had his worst day at right tackle. Jeremiah Attaochu abused him all day long. I haven't noticed Smith a ton, and for a freshman RT, that's a general plus, but Saturday was not his day.
-- I really wish the defensive game plan against the option focused on forcing the keep rather than forcing the pitch. Help is closer when the QB keeps and the GT run game never busts big plays except on the pitch. (Or the middle handoff.) Vad Lee and Justin Thomas combined for seven yards on eight carries.
-- I got in from seeing the Lions beat the Cowboys in way-awesome fashion (and now I get to make fun of people who left the game early), and other celebratory activities, and then had to write this depressing stuff. What a hobby. This is where we are, man; Saturdays suck (unless Michigan wins, then they halfway suck) and I turn to the Lions to make the weekend better. The Lions. That is a bad Saturday state of affairs.
Prediction review:
-- The UVA running game fails to top 125 yards. Yup. Even in taking out -17 from sacks and such, the running game didn't exactly rack up yards. Part of this was game plan; London claimed that the plan called for tilting the balance toward the pass because they felt GT had a good run defense but a sucky pass defense, and there ended up being more than twice as many called passes as runs. Part of that was also due to playing from behind, but still.
-- David Watford again tops 6 yards a pass. Yeah, I mean, barely, but he did. And like I said - I would've sworn he was closer to eight just from watching. I was surprised to see the final number so low.
-- Both David Sims and Zach Laskey have 100+ yard rushing days. They did, and I'm especially proud of myself for this one. This one's going out on a limb since, as pointed out in the comments, they platoon. But yeah, no middle at all without Brent Urban, who can't get back soon enough.
-- No GT receiver has a catch of 30 yards or more, unless it's mostly YAC. Dammit. An elusive perfect day ruined by one lousy wheel route. Robert Godhigh's 38-yard catch, despite him being a running back and all, spent too much time in the air for me to count this one.
Moving to 19-for-40 on the season gets me close to 50%, a number I haven't beaten since I started doing this. Ten points was exactly the spread, so I have to stick at 4-3-1 ATS but move to 5-3 straight up in my overall predictions. Fish in a barrel, man.
We will jump right into the bullet points because there's no need to construct a narrative here. 376 yards of passing and a +5 non-desperation-time turnover margin, and a loss, says all that needs to be said. It takes a pretty awful team to lose under those circumstances. So. Bullet points.
-- It was mentioned during the game that David Watford set new UVA records for completions and attempts. The interesting part was that he broke the completions record before the attempts record. The other interesting part was that both previous records were set by Matt Schaub, in another loss to Georgia Tech some 11 years ago.
-- I think Steve Fairchild called some occasionally stupid plays (you're trying to pick up a critical fourth down and you call for a pass to Billy Skrobacz? Not to demean Skrobacz, but he's a fullback, and therefore not particularly likely to be open unless the defense fails to account for him entirely. There wasn't another playmaker somewhere on the roster?) But overall Fairchild's scheme is starting to work nicely. Some "too horizontal" criticisms should be laid to rest. Clearly, if Fairchild has the WRs to stretch the field, he'll use them, as evidenced by Tim Smith's excellent day. I consider 13 yards per catch the dividing line between short-field possession receivers and long-field deep threats; Smith finally averaged over 15, and given the day from him and Darius Jennings, plus a couple of fine catches by Canaan Severin, I gotta give the receivers an A this week.
-- That said, before checking the box score I would have sworn that Watford's average yards per throw was much higher than 6.1. Seemed like there were plenty of downfield throws, and Watford completed over 70%. But nope. Barely six yards per throw again. So not all the concerns are laid to rest. But Watford laid in a few really nice throws, and if he can bring on the consistency in that department he'll change the dynamic quite a bit.
-- OK, the big issue: second-quarter clock management. The refs pretty ridiculously let five seconds run off the clock before deigning to acknowledge Mike London's timeout. But if you're going to call a run play, it doesn't really matter; neither six nor eleven seconds are enough time to run the ball and then get the field goal unit on. Nor is eleven seconds even enough time to run the ball and then spike it, given the time needed to untangle the pile.
The run play is mildly defensible since, you know, give the ball to your best player. Kevin Parks had already had a touchdown that entirely consisted of yards after contact. But on the other hand, you're putting the game in the hands of your weakest unit (the O-line) and you know this shit didn't work against Maryland so why would it now?
-- I would've also liked to see an onside kick after the touchdown and 2PC that made it 28-25, but I can see the argument for not doing so. Just get a three-and-out and you're fine.
-- Watford might've had an even better day throwing the ball, but Eric Smith had his worst day at right tackle. Jeremiah Attaochu abused him all day long. I haven't noticed Smith a ton, and for a freshman RT, that's a general plus, but Saturday was not his day.
-- I really wish the defensive game plan against the option focused on forcing the keep rather than forcing the pitch. Help is closer when the QB keeps and the GT run game never busts big plays except on the pitch. (Or the middle handoff.) Vad Lee and Justin Thomas combined for seven yards on eight carries.
-- I got in from seeing the Lions beat the Cowboys in way-awesome fashion (and now I get to make fun of people who left the game early), and other celebratory activities, and then had to write this depressing stuff. What a hobby. This is where we are, man; Saturdays suck (unless Michigan wins, then they halfway suck) and I turn to the Lions to make the weekend better. The Lions. That is a bad Saturday state of affairs.
Prediction review:
-- The UVA running game fails to top 125 yards. Yup. Even in taking out -17 from sacks and such, the running game didn't exactly rack up yards. Part of this was game plan; London claimed that the plan called for tilting the balance toward the pass because they felt GT had a good run defense but a sucky pass defense, and there ended up being more than twice as many called passes as runs. Part of that was also due to playing from behind, but still.
-- David Watford again tops 6 yards a pass. Yeah, I mean, barely, but he did. And like I said - I would've sworn he was closer to eight just from watching. I was surprised to see the final number so low.
-- Both David Sims and Zach Laskey have 100+ yard rushing days. They did, and I'm especially proud of myself for this one. This one's going out on a limb since, as pointed out in the comments, they platoon. But yeah, no middle at all without Brent Urban, who can't get back soon enough.
-- No GT receiver has a catch of 30 yards or more, unless it's mostly YAC. Dammit. An elusive perfect day ruined by one lousy wheel route. Robert Godhigh's 38-yard catch, despite him being a running back and all, spent too much time in the air for me to count this one.
Moving to 19-for-40 on the season gets me close to 50%, a number I haven't beaten since I started doing this. Ten points was exactly the spread, so I have to stick at 4-3-1 ATS but move to 5-3 straight up in my overall predictions. Fish in a barrel, man.
Sunday, October 13, 2013
a million miles away
I can see all the signs. I see the box score, where respectable offensive numbers show up in places where there used to be a toxic waste dump. I watched the game and for once it was the opponent I saw making crucial mistakes and handing points on silver platters to the other team. If one game can be called a trend, there's a decidedly upwards one.
I'm still not convinced. It's probably too late to rescue the season, now that the team needs four wins in the next six to call the season a success. The progress isn't fast enough. On the one hand, they did a lot of things right on Saturday; on the other, they did a few basic things so badly that they're still having to compensate in ways that can't bring sustainable success.
The O-line's inability to push a pile into the end zone was the most galling, and the reason that UVA lost despite a +3 turnover margin. Given not one, but two red zone chances after muffed punts, the Hoos managed two field goals. (This is why red-zone scoring percentage is a crap statistic. Announcers call that 100%. I call it 42%.) The offensive line simply was not good, and the result was a whole bunch of field goals when touchdowns were demanded.
This is why it's awfully hard to blame Steve Fairchild for the woes of the offense right now. If anything, maybe Scott Wachenheim. The offensive line is a lousy unit right now. It just is. It can't be anything else given their total failure to be able to line up and gain just a few yards when that's all that's needed. Fairchild managed to scheme around that and actually pile up yards on the ground. 242 rushing yards - that's all scheme. When asked to execute an assignment, the line is doing fine. When asked to win a battle, it ain't happening.
The level of trust in the quarterback isn't there either. UVA ran twenty plays inside the Maryland twenty, only six of which were called passes. Six passes, fourteen runs. This doesn't count the end-of-game sequence in which the playcalling was apparently designed to ensure maximum safety. I can't totally fault that - people would've been all over London and Fairchild if Watford had thrown a pick - but don't you think if we had a quarterback we trusted, they'd've put the game in his hands? They purposely didn't, nor did they, except for one (failed) attempt, let him try and score the touchdown with his arm. The only time he did score with his arm was a totally improvised busted play.
Against an O-line that can't move anyone and a quarterback the OC doesn't trust, how does the team win four of six? It probably doesn't. A two-game winning streak is the only thing that can change my mind, and even then maybe not because Clemson waits in three weeks.
I don't have a lot of other reactions in brief (other than to say that, yes, kicking the extra point to cut Maryland's lead to 14-13 in the first half was the right call. In the first half you always take the point, period. Too much can happen and it's the easiest thing in the world to come up with scenarios where you might really, really regret not having that point.) So let's go straight to the predictions:
-- Watford throws neither a pick nor a touchdown. Aw, c'mon. If it hadn't been for his very excellent improvision with McGee I'd have nailed this one. Oh well. Actually Watford played maybe his best game so far. He slightly improved the distance on his passes and didn't throw an interception. He needs some help from his receivers, who consistently don't get open, but he's starting, just ever so slightly, to come into his own.
-- Neither run game musters more than three yards per attempt. Actually both run games looked solid.
-- Keeon Johnson leads UVA wide receivers in receptions. I thought there was no way this was going to pan out, but - boom. Johnson had two, and nobody but Dom Terrell (two also) had more than one.
-- Stefon Diggs has had two catches each of the past two games; he has more here. Diggs had six. This was an easy call.
Two-for-four makes me 13-for-30, plus I nailed both the game and spread prediction, making me 3-3 in both.
P.S. I think we're going to find out this week that, once again, We Can't Have Nice Things. In this case, nice defensive tackles.
I'm still not convinced. It's probably too late to rescue the season, now that the team needs four wins in the next six to call the season a success. The progress isn't fast enough. On the one hand, they did a lot of things right on Saturday; on the other, they did a few basic things so badly that they're still having to compensate in ways that can't bring sustainable success.
The O-line's inability to push a pile into the end zone was the most galling, and the reason that UVA lost despite a +3 turnover margin. Given not one, but two red zone chances after muffed punts, the Hoos managed two field goals. (This is why red-zone scoring percentage is a crap statistic. Announcers call that 100%. I call it 42%.) The offensive line simply was not good, and the result was a whole bunch of field goals when touchdowns were demanded.
This is why it's awfully hard to blame Steve Fairchild for the woes of the offense right now. If anything, maybe Scott Wachenheim. The offensive line is a lousy unit right now. It just is. It can't be anything else given their total failure to be able to line up and gain just a few yards when that's all that's needed. Fairchild managed to scheme around that and actually pile up yards on the ground. 242 rushing yards - that's all scheme. When asked to execute an assignment, the line is doing fine. When asked to win a battle, it ain't happening.
The level of trust in the quarterback isn't there either. UVA ran twenty plays inside the Maryland twenty, only six of which were called passes. Six passes, fourteen runs. This doesn't count the end-of-game sequence in which the playcalling was apparently designed to ensure maximum safety. I can't totally fault that - people would've been all over London and Fairchild if Watford had thrown a pick - but don't you think if we had a quarterback we trusted, they'd've put the game in his hands? They purposely didn't, nor did they, except for one (failed) attempt, let him try and score the touchdown with his arm. The only time he did score with his arm was a totally improvised busted play.
Against an O-line that can't move anyone and a quarterback the OC doesn't trust, how does the team win four of six? It probably doesn't. A two-game winning streak is the only thing that can change my mind, and even then maybe not because Clemson waits in three weeks.
I don't have a lot of other reactions in brief (other than to say that, yes, kicking the extra point to cut Maryland's lead to 14-13 in the first half was the right call. In the first half you always take the point, period. Too much can happen and it's the easiest thing in the world to come up with scenarios where you might really, really regret not having that point.) So let's go straight to the predictions:
-- Watford throws neither a pick nor a touchdown. Aw, c'mon. If it hadn't been for his very excellent improvision with McGee I'd have nailed this one. Oh well. Actually Watford played maybe his best game so far. He slightly improved the distance on his passes and didn't throw an interception. He needs some help from his receivers, who consistently don't get open, but he's starting, just ever so slightly, to come into his own.
-- Neither run game musters more than three yards per attempt. Actually both run games looked solid.
-- Keeon Johnson leads UVA wide receivers in receptions. I thought there was no way this was going to pan out, but - boom. Johnson had two, and nobody but Dom Terrell (two also) had more than one.
-- Stefon Diggs has had two catches each of the past two games; he has more here. Diggs had six. This was an easy call.
Two-for-four makes me 13-for-30, plus I nailed both the game and spread prediction, making me 3-3 in both.
P.S. I think we're going to find out this week that, once again, We Can't Have Nice Things. In this case, nice defensive tackles.
Monday, September 30, 2013
bipolar disorder
I was going to start this post with some variation of "I don't know whether to be happy or pissed off" based on the completely polar-opposite performances by the offense or defense. Then I realized - duh - we lost. So the answer to that question is pretty obvious.
Let's get the good stuff out of the way first before we descend into internet RAGE mode. All of the good stuff is defense-related, obviously. I really can't say enough what a great job the defense did. The offense should spend the week bringing room service to the defense and otherwise catering to their every whim, in exchange for the terrible letdown they handed their teammates on Saturday. Pitt does not have a good offensive line, but still - the domination at the line was a sight to behold. It wasn't just the seven sacks. It was the nonexistent Pitt running game, and the pressure on what must have been two of every three of Tom Savage's dropbacks.
The coverage deserves a hand, too. Savage had 191 passing yards and would've had less than half that if not for some absurdly good NFL throws. Several of his completions were despite beautiful coverage - and against two of the ACC's best receivers. Between the total ownership of the line of scrimmage and the excellent pass coverage, I have nothing whatsoever to say against the defense and can't find enough words of praise to heap upon their performance.
I really wish, though, that I'd thought of Jerry Ratcliffe's line about Dominique Terrell before Ratcliffe thought of it - specifically, he called Terrell's punt-catching decisions "like watching a drunk chase a balloon near the edge of a cliff." You just don't usually get that kind of color from the media and it's a shame. I might have said "off a cliff" because that's where Terrell seems to want to send his team's fortunes. At this point I've given up hope that Terrell will ever be a smart player, and it's just amazing to hear London talk about things like accountability and at the same time continue to put Terrell and his idiotically adventuresome decision-making skills out there in the spotlight.
So let's talk about our offense.
It's not so much that David Watford makes bad decisions. He just doesn't make any decisions. Occasionally, very occasionally, he keeps on a read option. When passing, he waits for his first-option receiver to get to the point on the route where Watford should throw the ball, and then throws it. Coverage be damned.
I really don't want to single out one person, though. The offensive line blocked like shit. Steve Fairchild called a shit game. And on the rare occasions where Watford made neither a shit throw nor a shit decision, his receivers took a shit.
I have two main bitches about Fairchild. One, God kills a baby angel every time an offensive coordinator runs a toss sweep or option play to the short side of the field. Two baby angels if he does it on fourth down. That is setting your offense up to fail, plain and simple. Two, continually calling run plays directly at Aaron Donald. I don't know whose fault it was that Donald kept being single-blocked, but there's never a good reason to run right at the best player on the defense regardless of how many blockers there are.
"Soul-searching" is probably the wrong word for what needs to happen in offensive meetings between now and next Saturday. Imodium-searching might be more productive so the offense can stop taking a big diarrhea-shit all over the field. Maybe someone can teach Watford that he has more than one receiver to throw to - or else just put nine guys in protection. Maybe someone can teach the offensive line to stay between the defender and the ball. Maybe someone can put stickum on the hands of the receivers. For some really stupid reason UVA starts as a five-point favorite against Ball State - which puts a lot of faith in the offense to score more than five points.
Brief other stuff:
-- If the offense spends the week fetching water for the defense, they can include Alec Vozenilek in their rounds for the 77-yard punt that bailed them out from shitting around inside their own ten.
-- I'm not mad at London for going for it on fourth and almost-goal, down 14-3. Anyone suggesting we should have kicked the field goal is saying that the offense would've been able to actually move the ball again. That one drive included over 40% of the yards the offense gained the entire game. 77 of their 188 total yards. What's easier: scoring a touchdown from the three yard line or your own 20?
-- It's possible, maybe probable, that Eric Tetlow is a better player than Cody Wallace right now.
-- The maddening thing about all the drops is that so many of them came from what are supposed to be our best receivers. Two each, I think, from Jake McGee and Darius Jennings. Settin' the example.
-- Piling on Dom Terrell a little bit more, how about this: we win if Terrell doesn't try to chase down that punt. Even if the offense had gone three-and-out, they'd likely have ended up punting, putting Pitt in no position to score. They don't score, they don't kick off and pin us deep where a bad snap gives Pitt the ball in the red zone again. Just keep trading punts and eventually the turnovers our defense generated would've let us get a field goal here and there, and the Panthers likely would've been shut out.
Prediction review:
Before we start, I'm just gonna say that I'm not taking responsibility for bad predictions this week. I'll still track 'em, but c'mon. I deserve a break when the offense is more preoccupied with taking a shit than with moving the ball.
-- Daniel Hamm outgains Khalek Shepherd. Null prediction as London mentioned Hamm left the game early with an injury. I think minus that I would've gotten it, though, because Shepherd was in for just one series.
-- Watford manages about six yards per pass. He got 3.3. He might have made it to six without the drops.
-- Watford also contributes at least 30 yards on the ground. He actually gained 50 yards going forward and lost 35 to sacks and shitty snaps. I'm claiming this one as a win since his contribution to the running game was much bigger than previously, even against VMI, and it's not his fault his O-line politely allowed Aaron Donald and his DT cohorts to get all up in his stuff every other pass.
-- Aaron Donald and Eli Harold are the only players on either team to register a sack. I actually got this half right. One Pitt sack - a fumbled snap - was considered a "team" sack, and Donald got their other two. I didn't really foresee the ass-kicking the rest of our line would deliver, though, and Max Valles deserves special recognition for making prophets out of the defensive coaches that put him way high on the depth chart.
-- UVA is able to keep Pitt's running game in check, with no more than four yards a carry. If you include sacks, Pitt totaled eight yards on the ground. Not including sacks they still got crushed, with only 2.2 yards a carry. Niiiiice.
-- If both Tyler Boyd and Devin Street have fewer than 100 receiving yards apiece, UVA wins. Null prediction as Boyd gathered in 111 receiving yards. That's not why we lost, though.
Take away the two nulls and I actually went two-for-four. 8-for-20 is the season total, and since I predicted a win, I drop to 2-2 both real-time and ATS in the game-prediction department. I should get another loss just for assuming the offense was a real offense, but that's not how this works.
Let's get the good stuff out of the way first before we descend into internet RAGE mode. All of the good stuff is defense-related, obviously. I really can't say enough what a great job the defense did. The offense should spend the week bringing room service to the defense and otherwise catering to their every whim, in exchange for the terrible letdown they handed their teammates on Saturday. Pitt does not have a good offensive line, but still - the domination at the line was a sight to behold. It wasn't just the seven sacks. It was the nonexistent Pitt running game, and the pressure on what must have been two of every three of Tom Savage's dropbacks.
The coverage deserves a hand, too. Savage had 191 passing yards and would've had less than half that if not for some absurdly good NFL throws. Several of his completions were despite beautiful coverage - and against two of the ACC's best receivers. Between the total ownership of the line of scrimmage and the excellent pass coverage, I have nothing whatsoever to say against the defense and can't find enough words of praise to heap upon their performance.
I really wish, though, that I'd thought of Jerry Ratcliffe's line about Dominique Terrell before Ratcliffe thought of it - specifically, he called Terrell's punt-catching decisions "like watching a drunk chase a balloon near the edge of a cliff." You just don't usually get that kind of color from the media and it's a shame. I might have said "off a cliff" because that's where Terrell seems to want to send his team's fortunes. At this point I've given up hope that Terrell will ever be a smart player, and it's just amazing to hear London talk about things like accountability and at the same time continue to put Terrell and his idiotically adventuresome decision-making skills out there in the spotlight.
So let's talk about our offense.
It's not so much that David Watford makes bad decisions. He just doesn't make any decisions. Occasionally, very occasionally, he keeps on a read option. When passing, he waits for his first-option receiver to get to the point on the route where Watford should throw the ball, and then throws it. Coverage be damned.
I really don't want to single out one person, though. The offensive line blocked like shit. Steve Fairchild called a shit game. And on the rare occasions where Watford made neither a shit throw nor a shit decision, his receivers took a shit.
I have two main bitches about Fairchild. One, God kills a baby angel every time an offensive coordinator runs a toss sweep or option play to the short side of the field. Two baby angels if he does it on fourth down. That is setting your offense up to fail, plain and simple. Two, continually calling run plays directly at Aaron Donald. I don't know whose fault it was that Donald kept being single-blocked, but there's never a good reason to run right at the best player on the defense regardless of how many blockers there are.
"Soul-searching" is probably the wrong word for what needs to happen in offensive meetings between now and next Saturday. Imodium-searching might be more productive so the offense can stop taking a big diarrhea-shit all over the field. Maybe someone can teach Watford that he has more than one receiver to throw to - or else just put nine guys in protection. Maybe someone can teach the offensive line to stay between the defender and the ball. Maybe someone can put stickum on the hands of the receivers. For some really stupid reason UVA starts as a five-point favorite against Ball State - which puts a lot of faith in the offense to score more than five points.
Brief other stuff:
-- If the offense spends the week fetching water for the defense, they can include Alec Vozenilek in their rounds for the 77-yard punt that bailed them out from shitting around inside their own ten.
-- I'm not mad at London for going for it on fourth and almost-goal, down 14-3. Anyone suggesting we should have kicked the field goal is saying that the offense would've been able to actually move the ball again. That one drive included over 40% of the yards the offense gained the entire game. 77 of their 188 total yards. What's easier: scoring a touchdown from the three yard line or your own 20?
-- It's possible, maybe probable, that Eric Tetlow is a better player than Cody Wallace right now.
-- The maddening thing about all the drops is that so many of them came from what are supposed to be our best receivers. Two each, I think, from Jake McGee and Darius Jennings. Settin' the example.
-- Piling on Dom Terrell a little bit more, how about this: we win if Terrell doesn't try to chase down that punt. Even if the offense had gone three-and-out, they'd likely have ended up punting, putting Pitt in no position to score. They don't score, they don't kick off and pin us deep where a bad snap gives Pitt the ball in the red zone again. Just keep trading punts and eventually the turnovers our defense generated would've let us get a field goal here and there, and the Panthers likely would've been shut out.
Prediction review:
Before we start, I'm just gonna say that I'm not taking responsibility for bad predictions this week. I'll still track 'em, but c'mon. I deserve a break when the offense is more preoccupied with taking a shit than with moving the ball.
-- Daniel Hamm outgains Khalek Shepherd. Null prediction as London mentioned Hamm left the game early with an injury. I think minus that I would've gotten it, though, because Shepherd was in for just one series.
-- Watford manages about six yards per pass. He got 3.3. He might have made it to six without the drops.
-- Watford also contributes at least 30 yards on the ground. He actually gained 50 yards going forward and lost 35 to sacks and shitty snaps. I'm claiming this one as a win since his contribution to the running game was much bigger than previously, even against VMI, and it's not his fault his O-line politely allowed Aaron Donald and his DT cohorts to get all up in his stuff every other pass.
-- Aaron Donald and Eli Harold are the only players on either team to register a sack. I actually got this half right. One Pitt sack - a fumbled snap - was considered a "team" sack, and Donald got their other two. I didn't really foresee the ass-kicking the rest of our line would deliver, though, and Max Valles deserves special recognition for making prophets out of the defensive coaches that put him way high on the depth chart.
-- UVA is able to keep Pitt's running game in check, with no more than four yards a carry. If you include sacks, Pitt totaled eight yards on the ground. Not including sacks they still got crushed, with only 2.2 yards a carry. Niiiiice.
-- If both Tyler Boyd and Devin Street have fewer than 100 receiving yards apiece, UVA wins. Null prediction as Boyd gathered in 111 receiving yards. That's not why we lost, though.
Take away the two nulls and I actually went two-for-four. 8-for-20 is the season total, and since I predicted a win, I drop to 2-2 both real-time and ATS in the game-prediction department. I should get another loss just for assuming the offense was a real offense, but that's not how this works.
Monday, August 26, 2013
weekend review
So. Back from vacation. Going on a long trip means things get a little out of date, so today I catch up a little. And because it's my blog you also have to sit through the dreaded vacation slides.
-- Fortunately, UVA got through fall camp without getting too banged up in the injury department. The only major camp casualty (besides Sean Cascarano's hip, which developed into a problem long ago) was Wil Wahee, who was coming along nicely as the fourth cornerback on the roster and now will miss the season. It's a blow to the depth (and to special teams as well), and probably means peeling the redshirt off of Tim Harris. But worse things have happened.
-- The same can't be said for Virginia Tech. Injuries and just plain departures were rampant in Blacksburg this year. Let's see if I can remember them all:
- Whip linebacker Ronny Vandyke and RB Tony Gregory are out for the season.
- OL Mark Shuman and RB J.C. Coleman are both in the 4-6 weeks range.
- A whole bunch of players simply left the program. OLs Jake Goins and Adam Taraschke quit football, safety Davion Tookes left the team along with a couple defensive linemen, and CB Donaldven Manning transferred out after losing a camp battle.
- DL Corey Marshall is, according to Tech, "out indefinitely while resolving some personal issues."
Our Hokie friends like to spin this as just normal attrition, but normal attrition happens in the spring and summer. It's not exactly the total unraveling of their progam either, but that is not how a good, healthy training camp goes. They've had to move Wyatt Teller away from his more natural defensive end position to try and shore up the offensive line, which is unraveling.
-- I don't think I'm done talking about VT just yet. I've already gone over their offensive troubles in the previews, but their recent fall camp scrimmage really drives it home. The two quotes I like best from Bitter's article on it:
"As mentioned before, the protection wasn’t great. The first-team o-line was (from right to left) Laurence Gibson, Andrew Miller, David Wang, Caleb Farris and Jonathan McLaughlin. Even the second-team defensive line was giving them trouble, though."
"Likely starter Trey Edmunds only got one carry. Running backs coach Shane Beamer didn’t want either Edmunds or Mangus running behind the second-team offensive line."
The second-team offensive line at VT is so bad that the coaches were afraid they'd get their running backs hurt. That is priceless.
-- Regarding our own offense, Steve Fairchild recently gave his end-of-camp press conference, in which I thought his utter refusal to answer anything worth answering was telling in and of itself. Several of the questions asked ("How much has working with Mike Martz influenced you?") were cleverly but fairly obviously designed to see how much he'd reveal about his plans for the offense, and Fairchild was too smart to take any of the bait.
Nevertheless, I think there's a lot to be learned even from that. The scrimmage highlights on VSTV included at least one read-option run, and word has leaked out all during camp about things like the pistol formation. I don't think we're looking at a major tear-down and revamp such as what Gregg Brandon attempted to do, but pistols and read-options have never been a thing at UVA before. Bill Lazor ran a pro-style offense, and they're calling this one a pro-style offense too, but I think it's plain to see that the changes will be much bigger than that bit of terminology would indicate.
-- Baseball is generating some news too. Phil Gosselin, this past week, became the 32nd former Hoo to appear in the major leagues, getting the call-up from the Braves and making his mark pretty well with a 2-for-4 game in which he scored what would eventually be the winning run. Gosselin made his debut against the Nationals, and if Stephen Strasburg hadn't been ejected from the game (actually Gosselin's second, but he was only a defensive replacement in his first game), might well have had his first MLB at-bat against him. Gosselin's claim to fame, of course, is drilling the home run in Irvine that handed Strasburg and San Diego State the loss in the opening game of the regional.
Also, his old teammate Tyler Cannon is coming back to UVA as a student assistant coach - probably a one-year deal unless a more regular spot opens up, since he's back mainly to finish his degree. Cannon made it as high as AA-ball in his career.
-- The hoops schedule came out, and I have to say it's not impressive. I think we might well be in for another season of worrying about whether the OOC SOS will drag us down again. The marquee game is Wisconsin in the ACC/B1G Challenge; elsewise, as far as headliners go, there's a trip to Tennessee, a neutral-site game against Davidson, and VCU. Most of the rest of it is filler; assuming we don't make a mess of our preseason tournament, the prize at the end is a game against Texas A&M. Which isn't a good team, residing in the dregs of a decent-not-great basketball conference. This doesn't capture the imagination. We're stuck basically hoping A&M isn't bad enough to lose to whatever mid-major they drew in their end of the preseason tournament and that Larry Brown can get SMU (also on the schedule) up to speed in record time.
I'm not really complaining about being the star attraction in this Corpus Christi Whatever preseason tournament (it's brand-new, so without looking, it probably has the word "Classic" in the name); I mean, we can't go to Maui every year. But another big game or two would go a long way on this schedule, which still has too many sub-250 RPI teams on it. I continue to say we need to schedule a regular series with Georgetown just to stick it Maryland's eye.
-- I need to do a little bit of a recruiting board update, if only because one of the events of my vacation was Gary Wunderlich's highly disappointing decommitment. Don't know what appeal an Ole Miss diploma holds when you've got an offer to get a Virginia one, but fandom came into play here, I think. The changes:
- Moved K Gary Wunderlich from orange to maroon.
- Removed RB Madre London from yellow.
- Removed RB Joe Mixon from red.
I suspect there will be new offers going out as the coaches have a chance to see some players during their senior seasons.
And speaking of which, it's time for that feature to get a start as well. Unless some people commit quickly, this is gonna be a very short feature this year; there are only nine players to follow. Four were in action this weekend, two in preseason games. Caanan Brown and Evan Butts were those. Following the proper format for the other two....
Peachtree Ridge 23, Walton 17 - Jordan Ellis had a very good start, scoring what turned out to be the game-winning touchdown and grinding out 136 yards. Ellis flashed a little pass-catching ability too.
Western Alamance 37, Cummings 0 (Will Richardson)
Next week, everyone but Andrew Brown and Oscar Smith are in action.
 |
| Some people get a thrill out of meeting celebrities. I get mine from visiting celebrity cities. Standing on top of the Arc de Triomphe with all of Paris spread before you is like a personal dinner with Marilyn Monroe. I like my kicks better, because you can't meet Marilyn Monroe anymore. This first view of Paris - we went straight from the airport to the hotel to here - was indescribably sublime in a way that a stitched-up panorama on the screen could never convey. It's above the city but not way above the city, so it's like being in all of Paris at once. And it instantly became one of my favorite moments of my life. |
-- Fortunately, UVA got through fall camp without getting too banged up in the injury department. The only major camp casualty (besides Sean Cascarano's hip, which developed into a problem long ago) was Wil Wahee, who was coming along nicely as the fourth cornerback on the roster and now will miss the season. It's a blow to the depth (and to special teams as well), and probably means peeling the redshirt off of Tim Harris. But worse things have happened.
-- The same can't be said for Virginia Tech. Injuries and just plain departures were rampant in Blacksburg this year. Let's see if I can remember them all:
- Whip linebacker Ronny Vandyke and RB Tony Gregory are out for the season.
- OL Mark Shuman and RB J.C. Coleman are both in the 4-6 weeks range.
- A whole bunch of players simply left the program. OLs Jake Goins and Adam Taraschke quit football, safety Davion Tookes left the team along with a couple defensive linemen, and CB Donaldven Manning transferred out after losing a camp battle.
- DL Corey Marshall is, according to Tech, "out indefinitely while resolving some personal issues."
Our Hokie friends like to spin this as just normal attrition, but normal attrition happens in the spring and summer. It's not exactly the total unraveling of their progam either, but that is not how a good, healthy training camp goes. They've had to move Wyatt Teller away from his more natural defensive end position to try and shore up the offensive line, which is unraveling.
 |
| We also visited Cologne, Germany. I had never had Cologne on a list of places I just had to see, but the opportunity presented itself and we took it. Paris is awesome in the most literal sense of the word, but I also get a kick out of going to unexpected places, which is to say, ones that it never even crossed my mind to visit. In that sense it's like Jakarta, Indonesia. I've always loved traveling and have a really long list of places I want to see. Neither Jakarta nor Cologne were ever on them. The difference is, though, I'd go back to Cologne. |
-- I don't think I'm done talking about VT just yet. I've already gone over their offensive troubles in the previews, but their recent fall camp scrimmage really drives it home. The two quotes I like best from Bitter's article on it:
"As mentioned before, the protection wasn’t great. The first-team o-line was (from right to left) Laurence Gibson, Andrew Miller, David Wang, Caleb Farris and Jonathan McLaughlin. Even the second-team defensive line was giving them trouble, though."
"Likely starter Trey Edmunds only got one carry. Running backs coach Shane Beamer didn’t want either Edmunds or Mangus running behind the second-team offensive line."
The second-team offensive line at VT is so bad that the coaches were afraid they'd get their running backs hurt. That is priceless.
-- Regarding our own offense, Steve Fairchild recently gave his end-of-camp press conference, in which I thought his utter refusal to answer anything worth answering was telling in and of itself. Several of the questions asked ("How much has working with Mike Martz influenced you?") were cleverly but fairly obviously designed to see how much he'd reveal about his plans for the offense, and Fairchild was too smart to take any of the bait.
Nevertheless, I think there's a lot to be learned even from that. The scrimmage highlights on VSTV included at least one read-option run, and word has leaked out all during camp about things like the pistol formation. I don't think we're looking at a major tear-down and revamp such as what Gregg Brandon attempted to do, but pistols and read-options have never been a thing at UVA before. Bill Lazor ran a pro-style offense, and they're calling this one a pro-style offense too, but I think it's plain to see that the changes will be much bigger than that bit of terminology would indicate.
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| Victor Hugo wrote, in The Hunchback of Notre Dame, "There exists in this era, for thoughts written in stone, a privilege absolutely comparable to our current freedom of the press. It is the freedom of architecture." Those medieval architects, given the freedom to build what they couldn't write down, knew what they were doing. It's a tremendous testament to their abilities that their creations, 700 years later, still have the power to awe and amaze - and survive four years' worth of visits from Allied B-17s to boot. |
-- Baseball is generating some news too. Phil Gosselin, this past week, became the 32nd former Hoo to appear in the major leagues, getting the call-up from the Braves and making his mark pretty well with a 2-for-4 game in which he scored what would eventually be the winning run. Gosselin made his debut against the Nationals, and if Stephen Strasburg hadn't been ejected from the game (actually Gosselin's second, but he was only a defensive replacement in his first game), might well have had his first MLB at-bat against him. Gosselin's claim to fame, of course, is drilling the home run in Irvine that handed Strasburg and San Diego State the loss in the opening game of the regional.
Also, his old teammate Tyler Cannon is coming back to UVA as a student assistant coach - probably a one-year deal unless a more regular spot opens up, since he's back mainly to finish his degree. Cannon made it as high as AA-ball in his career.
-- The hoops schedule came out, and I have to say it's not impressive. I think we might well be in for another season of worrying about whether the OOC SOS will drag us down again. The marquee game is Wisconsin in the ACC/B1G Challenge; elsewise, as far as headliners go, there's a trip to Tennessee, a neutral-site game against Davidson, and VCU. Most of the rest of it is filler; assuming we don't make a mess of our preseason tournament, the prize at the end is a game against Texas A&M. Which isn't a good team, residing in the dregs of a decent-not-great basketball conference. This doesn't capture the imagination. We're stuck basically hoping A&M isn't bad enough to lose to whatever mid-major they drew in their end of the preseason tournament and that Larry Brown can get SMU (also on the schedule) up to speed in record time.
I'm not really complaining about being the star attraction in this Corpus Christi Whatever preseason tournament (it's brand-new, so without looking, it probably has the word "Classic" in the name); I mean, we can't go to Maui every year. But another big game or two would go a long way on this schedule, which still has too many sub-250 RPI teams on it. I continue to say we need to schedule a regular series with Georgetown just to stick it Maryland's eye.
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| Paris, of course, is one of the most popular literary (and dramatic, cinematic, etc.) settings of all time. To me, if I'm standing where an angry mob tore down the Bastille or where Marius first caught a glimpse of Cosette, or whether it's the location of an early Middle-Age siege of the city or a fictional masquerade, it's all the same. You have to use your imagination to picture either one, so landmarks made famous by literature are just as interesting as those made famous by history. Often they're made famous by both anyway. This is why I felt the gentleman who, during our tour, challenged the veracity of the relics of the Magi (which are held by the Cologne Cathedral) was completely and utterly missing the point - as well as being a bit of an asshole. |
- Moved K Gary Wunderlich from orange to maroon.
- Removed RB Madre London from yellow.
- Removed RB Joe Mixon from red.
I suspect there will be new offers going out as the coaches have a chance to see some players during their senior seasons.
And speaking of which, it's time for that feature to get a start as well. Unless some people commit quickly, this is gonna be a very short feature this year; there are only nine players to follow. Four were in action this weekend, two in preseason games. Caanan Brown and Evan Butts were those. Following the proper format for the other two....
Peachtree Ridge 23, Walton 17 - Jordan Ellis had a very good start, scoring what turned out to be the game-winning touchdown and grinding out 136 yards. Ellis flashed a little pass-catching ability too.
Western Alamance 37, Cummings 0 (Will Richardson)
Next week, everyone but Andrew Brown and Oscar Smith are in action.
 |
| We visited the Louvre. You have to visit the Louvre. It's way cheaper than you'd think, for one thing. About $15 to look at as many Virgin-Mary-with-Child's as you can cram into your eyeballs, and for the privilege of getting elbowed in the gut by little Chinese ladies for the right to stand as close to the Mona Lisa as they'll let you. It's a little hilarious how much morbid shit these Renaissance artists churned out, too. It's like there was this competition to see who could depict St. Sebastian with the most arrows sticking out of his ribs. I've never been confused with an art connisseur, but I know what I like. |
Thursday, August 15, 2013
season preview: NC State Wolfpack
8/31: Louisiana Tech
9/7: Richmond
9/14: BYE
9/19: Clemson (Thu.)
9/28: Central Michigan
10/5: @ Wake Forest
10/12: Syracuse
10/19: BYE
10/26: @ Florida State
11/2: North Carolina
11/9: @ Duke
11/16: @ Boston College
11/23: East Carolina
11/30: Maryland
Skip: Georgia Tech, Miami, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech
2012 results:
Tennessee: L, 35-21
Connecticut: W, 10-7
South Alabama: W, 31-7
The Citadel: W, 52-14
Miami: L, 44-37
Florida State: W, 17-16
Maryland: W, 20-18
North Carolina: L, 43-35
Virginia: L, 33-6
Wake Forest: W, 37-6
Clemson: L, 62-48
Boston College: W, 27-10
Vanderbilt: L, 38-24 (Music City Bowl)
Record: 7-6 (4-4); 3rd of 6, Atlantic Division
Projected starters:
QB: Pete Thomas (rJr.)
RB: Shadrach Thornton (So.)
WR: Quintin Payton (5Sr.)
WR: Rashard Smith (5Sr.)
WR: Bryan Underwood (rJr.)
TE: Asa Watson (5Sr.)
LT: Rob Crisp (Sr.)
LG: Duran Christophe (5Sr.)
C: Joe Thuney (rSo.)
RG: Alex Barr (rSo.)
RT: Tyson Chandler (rJr.)
DE: Art Norman (rJr.)
DT: T.Y. McGill (Jr.)
DT: Thomas Teal (rJr.)
DE: Darryl Cato-Bishop (5Sr.)
SLB: D.J. Green (Sr.)
MLB: M.J. Salahuddin (So.)
WLB: Brandon Pittman (Jr.)
CB: Dontae Johnson (Sr.)
CB: Juston Burris (rSo.)
FS: Jarvis Byrd (5Sr.)
SS: Hakim Jones (rSo.)
K: Niklas Sade (Jr.)
P: Wil Baumann (Jr.)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Coach: Dave Doeren, 1st season
Media prediction: 3rd of 7, Atlantic Division
All-ACC:
2012 1st team: S Earl Wolff
2012 2nd team: OG R.J. Mattes, CB David Amerson
2012 HM: S Brandan Bishop, DE Darryl Cato-Bishop, QB Mike Glennon, C Camden Wentz
2013 preseason: none
(Italics indicate departed player.)
After a 7-5 regular season and a bowl loss, NC State decided that was as far as Tom O'Brien was ever going to take them. Their loss, our gain. The Pack hired Dave Doeren out of the MAC, who wants to bring a more uptempo style to Raleigh than O'Brien's admittedly stodgy ways. Now comes their chance to see if TOB was holding them back or if he was squeezing the best possible results out of the talent that he had.
-- Offense
The UVA-NC State connections don't stop with TOB, even with a new coaching staff. O'Brien took the transfer of quarterback Pete Thomas from Colorado State - he left when Steve Fairchild was let go as head coach. Thomas started right away as a freshman at CSU, had two years as a starter, and acquitted himself fairly well, completing 63.5% of his passes, although also throwing more interceptions than touchdowns (18 to 21.) He's a big, tall pocket passer, standing 6'6", and has the edge over scrambling QB Manny Stocker for the starting job, though it's also fair to say the question isn't totally settled yet.
Thomas's poor mobility may have contributed to the astronomical number of times he was sacked at CSU - 44 times as a freshman alone - although the Rams also probably had an awful O-line. At NC State his tackles will probably be better. The outer edges are the strength of the Wolfpack O-line, with Rob Crisp and Tyson Chandler each having about a year of starting experience. In Crisp's case it's spread out over a couple seasons, though. The middle is a little shakier. Duran Christophe at left guard has plenty of experience and is not at all a question mark. Center Joe Thuney has been groomed to replace longtime starter Camden Wentz, but has only received playing time in fits and starts; meanwhile, prospective new starter Alex Barr at right guard got very minimal experience last season, playing almost exclusively on special teams.
The tailback platoon that carried the load last season returns, although neither Shadrach Thornton or Tony Creecy put much fear into the opposition. Thornton, as a true freshman in 2012, started to emerge as a quality player as the year went on, finishing the regular season with three straight 100-yard games. If he continues to improve and show consistency he'll be a solid back. Creecy is nothing special, averaging 3.7 yards per carry in each of the past two seasons.
The receivers, at least, are a deep unit. NC State featured three 600-yard receivers last season, two of which - Quintin Payton and slot jitterburg Bryan Underwood - return in 2013. Rashard Smith was a useful player in a reserve role, and Asa Watson is a capable tight end as well; additionally, Charlie Hegedus could be an intriguing option, having earned one starting nod as a true freshman last year. The caveat to the productivity of the receiving corps is that it could be awfully tough for Pete Thomas to duplicate the success of Mike Glennon; a 4,000-yard season such as Glennon had last year is probably not in the offing.
If Thomas - or even Stocker - turns out to be a worthy replacement for Glennon, NC State's offense should be able to move the ball. Thornton also needs to continue his development into a quality running back, because NC State doesn't have many options otherwise, and the new faces on the O-line need to get up to speed as well. Plenty of question marks here, but the tools to be respectable as well.
-- Defense
The defensive line looks like NC State's best position unit this year. It had better be, because the back seven is one of the shakiest in the conference. Up front, there is a ton of talent. Ends Darryl Cato-Bishop and Art Norman tallied 6.5 and 5.5 sacks, respectively, and combined for 18.5 TFL as well. The Pack like the depth they have at end, too, with Forrest West playing a big reserve role in 2012 before going down with injury, and Mike Rose should also push for playing time after delivering a huge punt block last year against FSU. In the middle, T.Y. McGill has the skills to be a terror; 10.5 of his 39 tackles were for loss last season, including five sacks. Nose tackle Thomas Teal also gets into the backfield an impressive amount for a 1-tech, and there's not a lot of dropoff in talent to his backup, A.J. Ferguson.
The D-line is excellent, but they're going to have to carry a huge load this year. Middle linebacker M.J. Salahuddin is a true sophomore who played on special teams last year except for a few snaps against UVA when the game was out of hand. He earned the starting job in spring camp, with his main competition being career special-teamer and former walk-on Zach Gentry. Weakside backer Brandon Pittman has some starting experience, but that came in the first two games of last season after which he was bumped to the bench; his backup is a redshirt freshman. And on the strong side, D.J. Green showed some promise in 2011, starting six games before losing the rest of the season to injury. In a possibly related development, he was suspended for all of 2012 by the NCAA for PEDs, and could only practice. Rodman Noel may push for time on that side, but he too began 2012 in the starting lineup before being bumped to the bench. Last year, NC State's linebacking corps looked shaky going into the season, and they found a few playmakers in Rickey Dowdy and Sterling Lucas; they will need a similar pick-me-up this season.
That's because they no longer have the security blanket named Earl Wolff and Brandan Bishop, who formed probably the league's best safety pair for a couple years. Getting first crack at replacing them will be Jarvis Byrd and Hakim Jones, the former of which has bounced from corner to safety and suffered two torn ACLs in his career. Jones doesn't have much field time either, which is no surprise when you're backing up Wolff and Bishop, but in any case the Pack are set to take a major step backwards at safety. Cornerback is thin too, behind the starters; Dontae Johnson was a starter last season, but didn't record an interception (and with David Amerson on the other side, Johnson was thrown at more than usual) and Juston Burris was the nickel corner and recorded three interceptions. Not a bad starting two, but the rest of the gang is almost entirely freshmen and walk-ons, so the Pack will have to work hard to find and develop some answers on the depth chart.
Truthfully, I'm not convinced. So many questions means a few are bound to go unanswered. This is going to be a tough year defensively for the Pack as they try to solve a perenially vexing linebacker issue and replace three outstanding players in the secondary. The line is one of the best in the conference, but that can only take them so far; there'll have to be some surprises if NC State is going to succeed.
-- Special teams
Both placekicking and punting look a little iffy. Kicker Niklas Sade was only 13-for-23 last season, including 8-for-18 from 30 yards or greater, and he missed two extra points. Punter Wil Baumann had a 38.9 yard average. Both need to improve.
-- Outlook
I'm on the edge as to whether or not to expect a bowl season out of the Pack this year. Because of the schedule - it's not difficult, with the toughest OOC test probably being Louisiana Tech - I'd lean toward yes. It's conceivable the Pack could have five wins by their second bye in October, and even four would set them up well for bowl eligibility. But a team with such serious holes, and learning new systems, can't be expected to contend for a division title when the two best teams in the conference are in their division. I'd be surprised if they can't muster up six wins, but not very.
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
quarterbacks, finally
I've avoided this subject on purpose for a while now. Mike London has always insisted on making it a pretty painful one, because he refuses to make a decision. His waffling on this issue is without doubt the most frustrating thing about him as a coach. More so than his constant haranguing of the refs or his exceedingly questionable decision to have the not-strong-armed Mike Rocco try to lead a game-winning drive into gale-force winds down in Blacksburg. These are frustrating as a fan. The quarterback thing is frustrating as both a fan and a blogger, because it makes any prediction I try to make turn to dust a few days later. Analysis is what I do, more or less, and analysis is pointless when not even the head coach knows who's going to take the next snap.
Why the change? Because London appears committed to change. Or less change. He told the assembled media throng at ACC media days that he would pick a quarterback early in camp, and that guy would actually be the guy. What a helluva concept.
A quick review of the spinning carousel in the three years of London: In 2010 it was Marc Verica, while some backups came in and tossed the ball a little as well. This was not offensive to my sensibilities, since there was an established starter, but the signs were there even if we missed them. Mike Rocco and Ross Metheny split the garbage-time snaps, a pretty clear indication that London had no idea what to do with the #2-on-down pecking order. 2011 was a wishy-washy disaster in August, September, and October, until London appeared to come to his senses, put Rocco in for the rest of the season, and watched him win four straight to clinch a Peach Bowl trip. It might've stayed that way if Phillip Sims hadn't arrived on scene, and suddenly it was back to the well of indecision. Depending on who you believe, it might've been fueled by London promising to give Sims the starting job, followed by Sims not exactly seizing it. Politics, in other words.
Rocco left last winter, not knowing that Sims's eligibility wouldn't survive the spring. Spring practice saw more of the same ol' stuff, too, but Sims's departure took a chunk out of our depth yet cleared up the picture. Also clearing up the picture: almost certainly Tom O'Brien. London by himself might have been moving toward the realization that the waffling wasn't helping, but TOB was brought on for his experience and sage counsel, and no doubt delivered some on the subject.
So, at the moment, there are two contenders for the job. Matt Johns and Brendan Marshall will be on the roster as well this season, but Johns sat out spring and is naturally behind, and Marshall is a true freshman. That leaves David Watford and Greyson Lambert.
Lambert probably has the stronger arm, and he's been putting in the appropriate work. Watford redshirted in 2012 after the snaps he played in 2011 proved that, more or less, he wasn't ready. That redshirt could turn out to be one of the best things the program has done for itself, because almost every observer labels Watford the frontrunner. It makes one think about the merits of a redshirt season after a season on the field. There's something to be said for learning what you don't know and then having a year-plus to work on that stuff.
Besides that, there are more than a few people praising Watford's leadership efforts. Not that Lambert hasn't also been making himself known in that regard, but Watford seems to have a good combination going for him: leadership, command of the offense, and the ability to move around a little bit. Watford isn't going to be an electric runner, but he can keep a play alive with his feet longer than Lambert is ever likely to be able to.
If Watford gets the nod, it'll be a new experience for our new OC, Steve Fairchild. The vast majority of his experience (if not all of it) comes from dealing with big-armed pocket passers, QBs much closer to Lambert's style than Watford's. I couldn't find any examples of quarterbacks Fairchild has worked with that have a skill set like Watford's. That said, I don't know how adaptable Fairchild is but it's a little on the encouraging side that the coaches are picking a quarterback based on who's the best quarterback, rather than who's the best fit with the coach's history. We're not talking about a Rich Rodriguez here, who has done one thing all his life, done it very well, and wouldn't know how to run a pro-style offense in a hundred years. Fairchild is still going to run whatever offense he runs, he'll just have to figure out how best to use Watford's skills in it.
In any case, though, we'll be going into the season with yet another brand-new starting quarterback. No matter who gets picked. Watford has some starts under his belt....two years ago, and with a different OC, and frankly very little he did in 2011 was effective. I don't think his freshman season is a useful indicator of anything. Lambert is a redshirt freshman and therefore has never taken a game snap. Sims was a likewise unknown commodity in 2012, just like Rocco was in 2011. UVA hasn't had the same quarterback take the majority of snaps in two consecutive seasons since 2006-2007, with Jameel Sewell. That won't change this year, either. However, if Mike London has truly decided to join the rest of college football and stop indecisively platooning his quarterbacks, he might just be laying the foundation to end that streak. Which in turn would mean the kind of stability that one frustrated blogger has never had the privilege to write about.
Why the change? Because London appears committed to change. Or less change. He told the assembled media throng at ACC media days that he would pick a quarterback early in camp, and that guy would actually be the guy. What a helluva concept.
A quick review of the spinning carousel in the three years of London: In 2010 it was Marc Verica, while some backups came in and tossed the ball a little as well. This was not offensive to my sensibilities, since there was an established starter, but the signs were there even if we missed them. Mike Rocco and Ross Metheny split the garbage-time snaps, a pretty clear indication that London had no idea what to do with the #2-on-down pecking order. 2011 was a wishy-washy disaster in August, September, and October, until London appeared to come to his senses, put Rocco in for the rest of the season, and watched him win four straight to clinch a Peach Bowl trip. It might've stayed that way if Phillip Sims hadn't arrived on scene, and suddenly it was back to the well of indecision. Depending on who you believe, it might've been fueled by London promising to give Sims the starting job, followed by Sims not exactly seizing it. Politics, in other words.
Rocco left last winter, not knowing that Sims's eligibility wouldn't survive the spring. Spring practice saw more of the same ol' stuff, too, but Sims's departure took a chunk out of our depth yet cleared up the picture. Also clearing up the picture: almost certainly Tom O'Brien. London by himself might have been moving toward the realization that the waffling wasn't helping, but TOB was brought on for his experience and sage counsel, and no doubt delivered some on the subject.
So, at the moment, there are two contenders for the job. Matt Johns and Brendan Marshall will be on the roster as well this season, but Johns sat out spring and is naturally behind, and Marshall is a true freshman. That leaves David Watford and Greyson Lambert.
Lambert probably has the stronger arm, and he's been putting in the appropriate work. Watford redshirted in 2012 after the snaps he played in 2011 proved that, more or less, he wasn't ready. That redshirt could turn out to be one of the best things the program has done for itself, because almost every observer labels Watford the frontrunner. It makes one think about the merits of a redshirt season after a season on the field. There's something to be said for learning what you don't know and then having a year-plus to work on that stuff.
Besides that, there are more than a few people praising Watford's leadership efforts. Not that Lambert hasn't also been making himself known in that regard, but Watford seems to have a good combination going for him: leadership, command of the offense, and the ability to move around a little bit. Watford isn't going to be an electric runner, but he can keep a play alive with his feet longer than Lambert is ever likely to be able to.
If Watford gets the nod, it'll be a new experience for our new OC, Steve Fairchild. The vast majority of his experience (if not all of it) comes from dealing with big-armed pocket passers, QBs much closer to Lambert's style than Watford's. I couldn't find any examples of quarterbacks Fairchild has worked with that have a skill set like Watford's. That said, I don't know how adaptable Fairchild is but it's a little on the encouraging side that the coaches are picking a quarterback based on who's the best quarterback, rather than who's the best fit with the coach's history. We're not talking about a Rich Rodriguez here, who has done one thing all his life, done it very well, and wouldn't know how to run a pro-style offense in a hundred years. Fairchild is still going to run whatever offense he runs, he'll just have to figure out how best to use Watford's skills in it.
In any case, though, we'll be going into the season with yet another brand-new starting quarterback. No matter who gets picked. Watford has some starts under his belt....two years ago, and with a different OC, and frankly very little he did in 2011 was effective. I don't think his freshman season is a useful indicator of anything. Lambert is a redshirt freshman and therefore has never taken a game snap. Sims was a likewise unknown commodity in 2012, just like Rocco was in 2011. UVA hasn't had the same quarterback take the majority of snaps in two consecutive seasons since 2006-2007, with Jameel Sewell. That won't change this year, either. However, if Mike London has truly decided to join the rest of college football and stop indecisively platooning his quarterbacks, he might just be laying the foundation to end that streak. Which in turn would mean the kind of stability that one frustrated blogger has never had the privilege to write about.
Thursday, January 31, 2013
sudden change
Apologies, I would've had an NC State preview and stuff, but homework got in the way. Lesson learned: four hours before it's due isn't always the best time to start. I mean, it still gets done, yes, but at the expense of everything else. At any rate, it saves me the embarrassment of being wrong about the NC State game, since I almost certainly would've predicted a UVA loss.
The other thing it saved me was having to come up with some kind of sputtering about Bill Lazor's sudden departure to the Philadelphia Eagles. The thought of Chip Kelly needing an offensive coordinator is a little bit goofy, but it's not like he didn't have one at Oregon either and anyway Lazor is only going to be the QB coach. UVA went out and hired a new coach in something like 36 hours, so I don't have to flap my arms about oh no what ever will we do.
UVA went back out west again to hire Lazor's replacement, in the form of Steve Fairchild. Technically Fairchild comes to us from the San Diego Chargers, but he described his job thusly: "'I’m just here to help Norv [Turner],' Fairchild said. 'Anything I can do to take a little bit away from Norv and help the offensive staff, that’s what my job is.'"
That's coachspeak for, "I'm collecting a paycheck and staying plugged into the network while I look for a real job." Fairchild's most recent actual job was that of head coach at Colorado State, where one of his assistant coaches was Larry Lewis, newly-hired special teams guy. In this, his lone head coaching experience, he was not successful; CSU went to a bowl game in his first season and then reeled off three 3-9 seasons in a row. Hence why his tenure lasted only four seasons.
Probably the most illustrious point on Fairchild's resume is as the St. Louis Rams' offensive coordinator and QB coach under Mike Martz. Anyone who could make Marc Bulger into the wildly successful quarterback that he was (even if only for a short time) probably did something right. Martz, however, was famous for calling his own plays, and the great success of the Rams' offense has always been generally credited to Martz. Fairchild was picked up by the Buffalo Bills after Martz left the Rams; he spent two years there presumably actually calling the plays since he was now working for a defensive head coach (Dick Jauron) and must have done alright, because he left of his own accord to coach at Colorado State, where he'd spend a lot of time in the '90s as OC.
I admit, though, I don't consider myself blown away. I wasn't exactly unhappy with Lazor. I thought it comical and a little bit stupid that a lot of the people who chewed their fingernails off in January 2012 over the possibility that Lazor might leave were the same people who were ready to call his cab outta town themselves after this season. Really, one season and he goes from indispensable to horrible? So fickle.
UVA, though, must've had some idea Lazor was a flight risk. The speed of Fairchild's hire gives it away. Clearly he was on a short list. People who wanted a "young, up-and-coming energetic coach" will be disappointed; Fairchild is more retread than up-and-comer. (But really, that's one of the sillier and most overhyped traits that people want in a coach. Nobody ever questioned Jim Reid's energy and certainly nobody will be questioning Jon Tenuta's.)
I will be in wait-and-see mode, though, which is a couple notches down from the enthusiasm I felt about Lazor when he was hired. Fairchild was pegged by an MWC blogger as a guy who tried to force the running game and limited his quarterback to dink and dunk stuff. That would not be too popular with this fanbase, but then, we're talking about people who wanted to see Phillip Sims repeatedly wing it downfield whether or not it was ever caught, so I take that opinion with a grain of salt too. Fairchild's CSU teams did lean pretty heavily to the run, for the most part. But I can't speak to that being definitely his style as a play-caller because, after all, he was the head coach, not the OC. With Buffalo, his Bills offenses actually split almost perfectly down the middle between the run and the pass; in the pass-wacky NFL, that might count as forcing the run too, but the guy had Marshawn Lynch toting the rock (in 2007) and J.P. Losman and Trent Edwards under center. I might never have passed the ball with that personnel.
So in the end I can't draw any concrete conclusions about Fairchild's style, other than that I don't see the philosophy changing too radically. Jon Oliver spoke about "changing systems" in his press release but I think he was referring more to the change in coaches rather than any major paradigm shifts like when they tried to pair Gregg Brandon with Al Groh. Fairchild's got an NFL background, after all. I don't think the difference between him and Lazor will be very tangible on the surface.
The other thing it saved me was having to come up with some kind of sputtering about Bill Lazor's sudden departure to the Philadelphia Eagles. The thought of Chip Kelly needing an offensive coordinator is a little bit goofy, but it's not like he didn't have one at Oregon either and anyway Lazor is only going to be the QB coach. UVA went out and hired a new coach in something like 36 hours, so I don't have to flap my arms about oh no what ever will we do.
UVA went back out west again to hire Lazor's replacement, in the form of Steve Fairchild. Technically Fairchild comes to us from the San Diego Chargers, but he described his job thusly: "'I’m just here to help Norv [Turner],' Fairchild said. 'Anything I can do to take a little bit away from Norv and help the offensive staff, that’s what my job is.'"
That's coachspeak for, "I'm collecting a paycheck and staying plugged into the network while I look for a real job." Fairchild's most recent actual job was that of head coach at Colorado State, where one of his assistant coaches was Larry Lewis, newly-hired special teams guy. In this, his lone head coaching experience, he was not successful; CSU went to a bowl game in his first season and then reeled off three 3-9 seasons in a row. Hence why his tenure lasted only four seasons.
Probably the most illustrious point on Fairchild's resume is as the St. Louis Rams' offensive coordinator and QB coach under Mike Martz. Anyone who could make Marc Bulger into the wildly successful quarterback that he was (even if only for a short time) probably did something right. Martz, however, was famous for calling his own plays, and the great success of the Rams' offense has always been generally credited to Martz. Fairchild was picked up by the Buffalo Bills after Martz left the Rams; he spent two years there presumably actually calling the plays since he was now working for a defensive head coach (Dick Jauron) and must have done alright, because he left of his own accord to coach at Colorado State, where he'd spend a lot of time in the '90s as OC.
I admit, though, I don't consider myself blown away. I wasn't exactly unhappy with Lazor. I thought it comical and a little bit stupid that a lot of the people who chewed their fingernails off in January 2012 over the possibility that Lazor might leave were the same people who were ready to call his cab outta town themselves after this season. Really, one season and he goes from indispensable to horrible? So fickle.
UVA, though, must've had some idea Lazor was a flight risk. The speed of Fairchild's hire gives it away. Clearly he was on a short list. People who wanted a "young, up-and-coming energetic coach" will be disappointed; Fairchild is more retread than up-and-comer. (But really, that's one of the sillier and most overhyped traits that people want in a coach. Nobody ever questioned Jim Reid's energy and certainly nobody will be questioning Jon Tenuta's.)
I will be in wait-and-see mode, though, which is a couple notches down from the enthusiasm I felt about Lazor when he was hired. Fairchild was pegged by an MWC blogger as a guy who tried to force the running game and limited his quarterback to dink and dunk stuff. That would not be too popular with this fanbase, but then, we're talking about people who wanted to see Phillip Sims repeatedly wing it downfield whether or not it was ever caught, so I take that opinion with a grain of salt too. Fairchild's CSU teams did lean pretty heavily to the run, for the most part. But I can't speak to that being definitely his style as a play-caller because, after all, he was the head coach, not the OC. With Buffalo, his Bills offenses actually split almost perfectly down the middle between the run and the pass; in the pass-wacky NFL, that might count as forcing the run too, but the guy had Marshawn Lynch toting the rock (in 2007) and J.P. Losman and Trent Edwards under center. I might never have passed the ball with that personnel.
So in the end I can't draw any concrete conclusions about Fairchild's style, other than that I don't see the philosophy changing too radically. Jon Oliver spoke about "changing systems" in his press release but I think he was referring more to the change in coaches rather than any major paradigm shifts like when they tried to pair Gregg Brandon with Al Groh. Fairchild's got an NFL background, after all. I don't think the difference between him and Lazor will be very tangible on the surface.
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