Showing posts with label blogpoll ballot. Show all posts
Showing posts with label blogpoll ballot. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

weekend review

Kicked off with a ballot:


This week saw quite a few teams removed from the pool for losing and dropping to 7-5 - that explains two of the three dropouts - and almost as many teams added, all but two of which were non-Big Five teams.  And as you might notice, three of those made the ballot.  The biggest surprise: San Jose State.  They will not be ranked so high by the poll at large (although one loony has them 12th) but my system weights each game 1-12 evenly, and the bottom end of SJSU's wins list is largely indistinguishable from a team that you might put in the 10-15 range.  It helps that they're 10-2 with one of their losses being a three-pointer to also-10-2 Stanford.

Next week, teams playing in conference championship games get a little reward.  Instead of stacking up 13 games and giving the vast majority of teams a "bye," the winners of the CCGs will have their worst win replaced with the CCG, and the losers, their worst loss.  UCLA is an example of a team that'll get a big benefit; either their weak win over Wazzu or blowout loss to Cal disappears from their resume.

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Basketball reaction from the past week is short and sweet.  Is it amazing what happens when we field an actual point guard?  Yes, it is amazing what happens when we field an actual point guard.  Huge caveats about the level of competition (Seattle, North Texas, Lamar) apply.  Lamar in particular was winless until scraping out a win over IUPUI.  (Pronounced "yoo-pwee" around these parts because it's fun.)

But the scores were also exactly what you'd hope to see out of a tournament-contending ACC team when playing that sort of competition.  Teven Jones got into the lineup for heavy minutes.  His stat lines weren't even that great.  You wouldn't know he'd made any impact.  (13 points against UNT wasn't too shabby, though, but four assists against three turnovers was fairly average.)  But the offense just works better.  There are more assists, total.  The A/T ratio is better.  You can look it up; the difference is palpable.  And that's just with a redshirt freshman running the joint.

Even with two CAA losses on the resume, it's reasonable to hope that if UVA puts together a bubble type of season, the committee will consider the absence of Jontel Evans as a major factor, and credit UVA accordingly.  But UVA will need to either beat Wisconsin, or go on an unlikely tear through the ACC schedule.  (A win over Tennessee may also help.)

Wisconsin, for their part, remains formidable competition, but has lost twice (to ranked teams, so don't get your hopes up too high) and didn't look good in either.  A preview of that game will appear in this very space, not long from now.

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The coaching carousel spared the ACC last offseason, but not this time: two ACC coaches are out of a job, as Boston College and NC State parted ways with Frank Spaziani and Tom O'Brien.  That's probably the beginning and end of it, unless someone else (David Cutcliffe?) leaves for another open job somewhere else.

UVA's head coaching job is not going to open up this offseason, but a shuffle among the assistant staff is probably coming.  In this week's ITA article (linked as soon as it's posted) I dive into that possibility somewhat; the cliffnotes are that special teams suck worse than anything the universe has ever produced, including Kim Kardashian, and that a change at O-line coach is likely due as well.  O'Brien's ouster at NC State produced speculation that since Ron Mattes is now unemployed, he might be a good choice to replace Scott Wachenheim, this time as a real coach and not a GA.  This comes from people who forget that Mattes is at Elon, not NC State.  Might he still consider a return to Charlottesville?  Possibly.

But if we're looking to the ranks of fired coaching staffs, I have another idea that piques my interest even more: Jim Bollman.  If you go back a lot further than I do, you might remember the name.  Bollman coached the O-line under George Welsh for four years in the early '90s, and has Ray Roberts on his resume.  He ended up at Ohio State for the last 11 years before this season, has coached in the pros, and was OSU's OC for a time as well.  When we were originally hiring, Bollman was too firmly entrenched at Ohio State to be even a remote possibility.  Now with Spaziani fired at BC, and Bollman's ties to BC pretty tenuous to begin with, that's one phone call that ought to be made.

As for special teams, I totally forgot when I was ranting and raving in October, but guess what I wrote in the aftermath of the Peach Bowl?
Maybe I said the defense didn't completely suck because I was comparing it to the atomic fiasco that was the special teams. How many points do you suppose we gave up because of special teams? I count 22:

- 7 for the first blocked punt, which gave Auburn the ball in the red zone
- 7 for the onside kick, which gave Auburn the ball at our 41
- 3 because we couldn't execute a fake field goal
- 2 for the safety on the second blocked punt
- 3 for the field goal that came after Auburn's long return of the ensuing free kick

Anyone who comes through as unblocked as all that will block the punt. And - really? A rugby punt in the end zone? When you have one-third fewer yards to work with? Coaching failures brought on those blocked punts, and a coaching failure led the team to be unprepared for an onside kick. And the kick coverage has been trouble all year, not to mention kicking the ball out of bounds on the kickoff.

So that'll be your number one adjustment for the offseason. It's a tough situation because your special teams coach is none other than UVA legend Anthony Poindexter, whose recruiting chops are crucial to our success. But nobody else on the staff has ever been a special teams coach, either. Idea lobbed in from the back of the peanut gallery: have London take over special teams himself until eventually someone leaves the staff and someone with special-teams experience can be hired. Cause that might've been the worst game anyone in the country has played on special teams, all year long.
Emphasis added this time around.  Can't believe I forgot about that.  Man, that was a mess.  Now compare that to what I said, post-Maryland:
 UVA cannot afford one more week of Anthony Poindexter's totally ineffective coaching of the special teams. ... it's still time for a staff shuffle, starting with the special teams, which should be under the purview of the head coach for the rest of the year.
I retract what I said about Poindexter's other coaching abilities, because the defense has turned out such that I wouldn't change a thing about the defensive staff this offseason.  But special teams?  There is nothing redeemable about them.  We're at the bottom of the country in every conceivable category - most notably 123rd of 124 in allowing kick return yardage - and something spectacularly awful happens every game.  If I read the tea leaves right, they've attracted the attention of Craig Littlepage, which hopefully means Mike London is going to devote an hour or two this offseason to fixing them.

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

blogpoll ballot, week 12

In a probably-futile effort to retain some sense of normalcy in these oh-so-trying times, here is the Blogpoll ballot.  It's not exactly in the spirit of transparency since there's no longer a chance to change it, but that's not completely my fault either now that they publish the final deal on Tuesday instead of Wednesday.


There's very little change in the composition of the ballot.  Wisconsin couldn't sustain any success, and was replaced by Penn State.  Truthfully, that's probably the least change we've seen all year; in fact it's about the minimum you'll ever see.  It comes more from minute changes in the way I view the various wins and losses on a team's resume than anything else.

The eligible pool gained four teams and lost one.  Louisiana Tech was upset by Utah State, and without a qualifying Big Five win, 9-2 isn't a good enough record.  Penn State, Washington, and UNC won their way back to qualification with 7-4 records and a qualifying win, and there was one surprise team: Middle Tennessee.  Technically they're eligible for this ballot now; Georgia Tech, whom they beat, has a winning record.  I had very low expectations for Middle Tennessee's chances, and they failed spectacularly to meet them.  But I figured I'd include them just for giggles.  With 33 teams under consideration and 11 games on most everyone's resume, the maximum number of points you can get in my system this week was 363.  MTSU had 354.  Team number 32 (Louisville) had 297.  Lots of points are bad.  Next week I'm invoking the same imaginary corollary I used to kick out Ohio, and booting the Blue Raiders too.

The final poll has Alabama #2, which shows only that Blogpollers are susceptible to many of the same biases as the regular voters.  Putting them above Florida is only barely justifiable.  They have two common opponents (Missouri and Tennessee) where Alabama was clearly better, and Alabama has a much better OOC game on their list.  That said, Texas A&M as a common opponent carries much more weight than who beat who by more points.  Florida's top three wins are a drubbing of South Carolina, then A&M, and LSU.  Alabama's best is LSU, and third-best is the semi-fraudulent Mississippi State, which isn't even part of the eligible pool under the rules I use.  (They haven't beaten anyone with a winning record, except for Middle Tennessee.)  Alabama might very well beat Florida in a game, should they play each other, but they don't have the better resume.

Hanging around at #26 and #27 are Kent State and Northern Illinois, who actually tied in points this week and were only two behind Rutgers.  Either could worm into the ballot next week, particularly Kent State, who plays Ohio and thus has a chance to add a very nice (for the MAC) win to their resume.  They're both also on a collision course for the MAC title game.

Next week, it'll be important to remember that 7-5 teams are ineligible, which puts seven teams at risk of dropping out, and that 10-2 is good enough without a qualifying win, which means not only that the two MAC teams are assured of staying in the pool, but there are five other mid-majors that could rise to get a look as well.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

weekend review

We're going to kick this one off with Senior Seasons first; that way I can't write the whole post and then chicken out and punt it to Tuesday again.

Good Counsel 21, St. John's 7: Brendan Marshall was a perfect seven for seven for 102 yards and Good Counsel will advance to the WCAC final against - who else - DeMatha.  Good Counsel is 10-1.

A.L. Brown 69, Hickory Ridge 55: Keeon Johnson and Kannapolis got revenge for their first in-county loss in decades, and Johnson had a whopping 12 catches for 116 yards and (kind of surprisingly given the score) one touchdown.  Johnson missed the first game against this team with turf toe.  Brown is 10-3, and advances to the third round.

Ocean Lakes 34, Granby 3: Ocean Lakes had no trouble advancing.  That's the good news.  The bad news is that they'll have to go the rest of the way without Corwin Cutler, whose torn-up knee put a premature end to a phenomenal season.  Ocean Lakes is 11-0.

Oscar Smith 35, Bayside 12: Smoke Mizzell ran for 175 yards on 20 carries and played a lot of defense too, but Zach Jones and Oscar Smith handled Bayside pretty easily.  Bayside finishes their season at 8-3; Oscar Smith is also 8-3 and advances to face Salem.

Salisbury 35, Avon Old Farms 28 (Sadiq Olanrewaju) - Salisbury is 8-0
Gilman 20, McDonogh 8 (Micah Kiser) - Gilman is 8-2
Urbana 24, Damascus 23 (Zach Bradshaw) - Damascus is 10-1
St. John's Prep 21, BC High 16 (Jack McDonald) - BC High is 3-6
South Iredell 47, Pisgah 8 (LaChaston Smith) - South Iredell is 11-2
Houston Bellaire 30, Houston Westside 23 (Hipolito Corporan) - Westside is 6-4
Fork Union 45, Benedictine 27 (Malcolm Cook) - FUMA is 9-2
Jackson Liberty 21, Monsignor Donovan 0 (Brad Henson) - Donovan is 5-3

Seasonal breakdowns are as follows:

-- 2 regular seasons are still going on, sort of.  BC High has a rivalry game on Thanksgiving weekend, but they're 3-6 and whatever form of playoffs they might have qualified for, they didn't.  Monsignor Donovan (Brad Henson's team) has one game next week, and once again I'm blowed if I can figure out what the hell goes on in New Jersey.

-- 3 seasons are done.  Zach Bradshaw and Damascus were upset as heavy favorites in the first round, and somebody had to lose between Smith and Bayside and Bayside it was.  Bradshaw and Taquan Mizzell join Jack English on the sidelines.

-- 4 championship games are next weekend.  FUMA plays in the VISAA Division I final against Liberty Christian.  Gilman has the MIAA championship against Calvert Hall, whom they beat 24-14 a few weeks ago.  Salisbury plays in the Jack Etter Bowl, which is the NEPSAC Class A championship, against Phillips Exeter.  And of course, there's the WCAC Good Counsel-DeMatha game.

-- 7 teams continue - or start - their playoff roll.  In North Carolina they're in the 3rd round, where South Iredell will play Bandys and A.L. Brown plays Charlotte Catholic.  South Iredell played Bandys about a month and a half ago, and won 24-13.  Brown has not played Charlotte Catholic this season, but they're fairly familiar playoff opponents; Catholic is a semi-powerhouse.  In fact, Catholic trekked up to Baltimore earlier this season, where Gilman and Micah Kiser beat them, 37-14.

The VHSL playoffs truck into the second round, and it's Ocean Lakes vs. Western Branch; Potomac vs. Mountain View; Oscar Smith vs. Salem; and Varina vs. Meadowbrook.

In Texas, the first round begins next weekend, and Houston Westside takes on Houston Memorial in the first round.  Let's hope Hipolito Corporan stays committed long enough for us to care about this playoff run.

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Say, it's a Blogpoll ballot.  We had a thin pool of teams to choose from this week.  Four teams (UNC, WVU, PSU, TCU) were banished for picking up a fourth loss.  6-4 isn't good enough to be considered, with one exception to be discussed later.  Ohio and Toledo, who were at the bottom of the pecking order anyway, dropped out because 8-2 is only good enough if you've got a win over a Big Five team that's .500 or better.  OK, Ohio does, but they lost this week and were rock bottom before and not real likely to move up as a result of losing to Bowling Green.  And Mississippi actually should've been out last week.  No qualifying win on their schedule, either.  Of all the teams that dropped off the edge, the highest-ranked was Penn State at 19th, and most were perennially well outside the top 25.

After adding Arizona back (the aforementioned exception) on account of a commonsensical suggestion in last week's comments (it seemed wrong to drop them from 11th to nowhere), the eligibility pool stood at 30.  That makes it a lot easier and faster, for one thing.  It means that Wisconsin and Rutgers are basically the beneficiaries of sticking around (and Wisconsin is bloody lucky Minnesota is bowl-eligible.)

About the ballot itself, I once again had to shove Florida down below the title contenders, although Oregon ended up legitimately in the top three this time.  (They were #5 last week.)  I think this is because of a somewhat improved outlook on vanquished opponents Washington and Arizona.

I was less inclined, this week, to move Nebraska below Ohio State, and ultimately, I obviously didn't.  Ohio State was, up til now, the beneficiary of not having had a bye week; now everyone has had one, and so for all intents and purposes, nobody has, except those like Oklahoma that've had two.  So OSU took a slight fall.  Besides, despite the records and the head-to-head outcome, this is justifiable.  Nebraska's top five wins: Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, Northwestern, Michigan State.  OSU's: Nebraska, Penn State, Central Florida, Michigan State, Illinois.

Next week the eligible pool will probably grow again; I consider 7-4 with a qualifying win good enough.


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Newsbits:

-- The "new BCS" is starting to take its final form.  Truthfully, it's not that different from the old one.  I'll have a more comprehensive user's guide tomorrow.

-- The men's soccer team has their 32nd straight bid to the NCAA's, and will host an opening-round game against Lafayette.  The ladies trounced La Salle in the first round, and advance to play Rutgers at Klockner this Friday.

-- Hooptyball has started the season 1-1; the lack of a point guard is showing.  A lot.  But they did lock it down on defense tonight against Fairfield, and will play Delaware tomorrow in the Preseason NIT second round.  The good news is that if we do end up having a marginally tourney-worthy season, the committee will likely take into account Jontel Evans's injury in considering that George Mason game.

-- LOLVT.  Enjoy this video of wide receiver Marcus Davis taking a page from the Jeff Allen Instruction Book of Effort, and never blocking anyone.  And then for further giggles, you can read Davis's response.  My personal favorite: "You can't block in the back.  That's obvious."  Of course, they start off in front of you, but never mind that.