series preview: Wake Forest

Date/Time: Sat-Mon, 4/7-4/9; 4:00, 1:00, 7:00

TV: Monday on ESPNUVA; first two games on UVA live stream

Record against the Deacons: 71-84

Last matchup: UVA 13, WF 1 (5/25/11); Durham, NC (ACC tournament)

Last game: UVA 15, JMU 5 (4/4); UNC 4, WF 3 (4/1)

Last weekend: NCSt 2-1 over UVA (1-5, 5-2, 6-7); UNC 2-1 over WF (7-6, 3-7, 3-4)

National rankings:

Baseball America: UVA unranked; WF unranked
Collegiate Baseball: UVA unranked; WF unranked
NCBWA: UVA #29; WF unranked
Perfect Game: UVA #48; WF unranked
Coaches: UVA unranked; WF unranked

Opposing blogs: Blogger So Dear

Wake Forest lineup:

C: Brett Armour (.272-1-9)
1B: Carlos Lopez (.336-8-35)
2B: Conor Keniry (.344-0-12)
3B: Mark Rhine (.310-1-12)
LF: Evan Stephens (.333-1-14)
CF: Mac Williamson (.272-9-25)
RF: James Harris (.188-1-11)
DH: Charlie Morgan (.274-3-22)

Pitching probables:

Saturday: LHP Scott Silverstein (2-3, 2.68, 33 Ks) vs. LHP Tim Cooney (3-2, 4.06, 44 Ks)
Sunday: RHP Branden Kline (4-2, 3.09, 45 Ks) vs. RHP Justin Van Grouw (1-3, 5.35, 29 Ks)
Monday: RHP Artie Lewicki (1-1, 4.31, 25 Ks) vs. LHP Brian Holmes (5-0, 1.87, 44 Ks)

Happy Opening Day!  It is for me, anyway, as this is being typed while watching the Tigers take on the Red Sox in (finally) a game that matters.

The end of the winter baseball drought is apropos; it's been a long time since the major leagues played games that matter, but it's been even longer since the last time UVA and Wake Forest got together for a baseball series.  We did play them once last year in the ACC tournament, and the game ended via mercy rule (owing to the necessity of playing a lot of games on one day in one ballpark) and no doubt the Deacons remember that.  Otherwise, it's been since 2009.  March of '09, to be exact, when the Hoos swept the ACC opening series by a combined score of 47-13.  But this is a much better Wake Forest team than you might remember.

This weekend, by the way, is one of those with the schedule bumped a day backwards for TV.  It won't start til Saturday, and Monday's game is on ESPNU.

-- UVA at the plate

I suspect Wake Forest of being one of those teams that slides their ace to the back of the rotation in order to improve their chances of snagging a win.  Evidence: Sunday (Monday) starter Brian Holmes has every statistic in his favor and tossed a no-hitter against Marshall earlier this year.  I don't think they're bad enough anymore that they should have to do that, but whatever.  The national TV audience will probably see Wake's best shot.

Saturday and Monday, UVA will see a couple of tough-to-hit lefties, each with 44 strikeouts.  Both can be worked for a walk, though, too.  Tim Cooney is considered to have the best stuff in the Wake rotation, with a four-pitch arsenal, and Holmes throws a heavy fastball that's been hard to hit.  On Sunday, the only right-hander in the rotation takes the mound, and this is the day the Hoos have the best chance of teeing off; Justin Van Grouw has been maddeningly inconsistent this season.

So has the Wake bullpen.  It's been very up and down.  Closer Michael Dimock has eight saves but a 4.50 ERA.  He's also struck out 26 in 24 innings.

From the UVA side of things, Reed Gragnani didn't play at all against JMU this week, and if it's anything to do with his nagging injuries he's been dealing with this year, then it's unlikely he'll play this weekend, too.  With two southpaws on the hill, lefty Mike Papi also might not see much time.  (Wake has practically nothing but righties in the pen, so even if Papi doesn't start, he'll get some PH chances.)  This means basically that the outfield will again be Fisher-Shifflett-Harrington (and those corner guys have been swinging the bat very, very well lately) with a freshman DHing.  Last week we saw a lot of Brandon Cogswell, but he's a lefty; Nick Howard might be the guy this week.

-- UVA in the field

The preseason book on Wake Forest was that their hitting amounted to a big pile of baked ass.  Forget the book.  Wake's hitters have been very solid, 1 through 8 - the exception being James Harris, batting .188.

The top guys are the same as the ones who did all the hitting last year: Carlos Lopez and Mac Williamson.  Wake's hitting has been a rising tide lifting all their boats, and these two are no exception.  Lopez is batting .336 and slugging .645; he and Williamson already have eight and nine home runs, respectively.

Last year, 2B Conor Keniry batted .196; this year, he's Wake's leading hitter at .344.  Mark Rhine, who's taken over at third for Lopez (who's now at first) was a .170 hitter; he's at .310 now.  In all, it's a solid, well-rounded lineup that's a far cry from the anemic piddlers that trotted to the plate last year, and the funny thing is, it's mostly the same guys.

UVA must also watch out for Wake on the basepaths; they've been successful on 44 of 56.  With UVA's catchers allowing more than 70% of basestealers to succeed, that's not a good sign.  Three players in particular are a concern: Williamson, Keniry, and Pat Blair.  Blair, the Deacs' shortstop, leads the team with 21 walks.  Hoos pitchers have gotten occasionally careless, at times forgetting about baserunners, and that can't happen this weekend.

-- Outlook

Sunday provides an interesting matchup, with perhaps our best pitcher against definitely Wake's worst.  So that's "interesting" in the sense of "awesome."  The actual interesting games will bookend the series, especially Monday.  As in, it'll be interesting to see if Lewicki and the bullpen can match up against Wake's ace.

This makes Saturday's game absolutely vital.  The Hoos must knock Cooney off the hill.  UVA should be able to get the Sunday win, which means winning or losing on Saturday is the difference between trying for the sweep, or hoping for the series win against Wake's best pitcher.  This is a much-improved Wake team from years past, but even so, it's not a series the Hoos can afford to lose and maintain the goal of earning a regional 2 seed.

weekend review

I was thinking of just posting a big picture of a fart, and that would've summed up my feelings about the weekend very nicely thank you, but maybe that would've been a cop out.  If we're going to puff out our chests like we usually get to do on spring weekends, we gotta face the music when things go badly.

I don't need to break down the basketball, though.  It's obvious to anyone what happened there: the basketball gods decided it wasn't going to happen, and that was that, and that decision was probably made back in February.  There's no other way to explain the freak series of injuries that hit this team; I don't know who suffered more broken bones, UVA or the rest of the country, but either way it's close.  The fates were not aligned for UVA this month, in everything from the actual on-floor competition to the race for accolades.  It is not our month when Bernard James kicks Joe Harris ON HIS BROKEN HAND and James is the one who garners media sympathy.

(This is the section you should only read if you like throwing up in your mouth and having your screw-you-o-meter pegged, but Carolina fans are amusingly broken up over Kendall Marshall's injury.  As if North Carolina is the team getting all the rotten luck this year.  I hope it's a year's worth of rotten luck that's just beginning.  Kendall Marshall doesn't specifically deserve to get hurt, but Carolina fans deserve to watch it happen, and if Creighton was going after John Henson, so much the better; Henson is a douchecanoe.  I hope some Ohio Bobcat comes out next weekend with a sledgehammer painted with the words "John Henson's Wrist."  Then maybe he'll learn the difference between a foul and a "foul."  If Creighton was hammering the Tar Heel players all game, it's probably because they assumed they'd be called for a foul whether they did or not, like certain other Carolina opponents, so they might as well get their money's worth.  What, me still bitter over that game at the JPJ?  Noooooo.)

I'd like to offer some kind of appraisal as to what the team will look like next year and how it will fare, but I just have no idea.  Here's what we lose:

- Mike Scott
- Sammy Zeglinski
- Mike Scott
- the ghost of Assane Sene
- Mike Scott

And here's the arriving cavalry:

- Teven Jones
- Evan Nolte
- Justin Anderson
- Mike Tobey
- Malcolm Brogdon's foot
- Joe Harris's left hand

A nominal starting lineup would be Evans, Brogdon, Harris, Mitchell, and Tobey.  Maybe.  It'll be a weirdly put-together team.  A lot of tweener types, and quite a few who fit the mold of a 3 and not enough that fit the mold of a 2 or a 4.  No bigs whatsoever besides Tobey, so it's sink or swim with him - hope his defense is up to Tony Bennett's standards or we'll never put anyone out there taller than 6'8".  Defending opposing bigs will be a question of hoping Akil Mitchell and Darion Atkins are up to the task, or else relying on a freshman who needs to become best friends with the weight room.

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Baseball isn't having a great weekend either, and it ain't over yet.  Two losses to Florida State mean that tonight is the last chance to salvage anything from the series.  It was the world's first chance to get a glimpse of UVA baseball without buying a ticket to Davenport Field, and what they saw didn't impress.

Saturday's and Sunday's games were full of the kind of mistakes that set coaches' blood on fire.  Mainly Saturday.  The games were lost because of 1) the mistakes and 2) FSU pouncing ruthlessly on the opportunities because they're a top-ten team and that's what top-ten teams do.  Sunday's story was a fantastic outing by Branden Kline - who returned to the starting rotation after a weekend off it - wasted by one bad inning of walks and HBPs.  And pitching coach Karl Kuhn was probably already blowing a stack after the four HBPs (and seven walks) issued on Saturday.  The next poor pitcher that plunks a Seminole batter probably rides the plane back to Charlottesville tied to a wing.

Pile that on top of the bad fielding effort and poor approach at the plate (FSU reliever Hunter Scantling threw about forty sliders and yet our batters continually looked surprised to see the slider....though it is a little strange to see a huge, hulking pitcher big enough to play defensive end for the Raiders pitching like Jamie Moyer.)  Nate Irving probably also came in for a little slice of the coaches' wrath for two lazy efforts resulting in passed balls.  Freshman catcher : baseball :: freshman point guard : basketball.  He'll learn.

Perhaps most troubling: a commenter's suggestion that Chris Taylor might need to be moved off of shortstop.  Taylor is a veteran player and the Hero of Irvine, but.... man, eight errors is kind of hard to argue with.  He's also 2-for-19 in ACC play.  (.253 on the season, but he's been padding his stats against JMU and Marist.)  Might it be a better lineup to have Stephen Bruno at short and Reed Gragnani at third, with Colin Harrington and Mitchell Shifflett in the outfield?  Maybe, but if that's even on Brian O'Connor's mind, it won't happen for a couple more weeks.  A possible shorter-term solution: move Taylor to second and Keith Werman to short.

Still, O'Connor is not a knee-jerk type.  Patience is a hallmark of his, if you've earned it.  (Which Taylor has.)  He's not stubborn either, but he'll probably always be much slower to make a move than fans will be to suggest it.  Will Roberts tossed a perfect game last year and it still took two more weekends before he was moved to Sundays.

Tonight, Whit Mayberry takes the mound, and we'll see if the Hoos can put together nine innings and salvage a game in Tallahassee.  Heck, I'd settle for innings that don't take five minutes to get through our half and twenty to get through theirs.

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Thank God for lacrosse, and we almost weren't even able to say that, as the team fell behind 6-1 to Ohio State after the first quarter.  Fortunately, the next three quarters were 10-3, Good Guys.  Ohio State is in the rearview mirror, hopefully permanently; the Buckeyes play the kind of stalloriffic brand of lacrosse that makes people think a shot clock is a good idea.  It's fairly hideous.  According to people who were there (the only way to see the game otherwise was to fork money over to Ohio State, which I wasn't going to do) OSU went into stall mode in the second quarter, hoping to milk their five-lead for three-fourths of the game.  They did this to Denver, too, causing notorious stallmaster Bill Tierney to whine about stalling.

There's no need to play teams like that, honestly.  Buckeye fans are getting a little tired of a coach that hasn't been able to get OSU over the hump, so maybe that particular brand of lacrosse isn't long for Columbus, Ohio, but if UVA is going to make trips out to the Midwest, how about making Ann Arbor the next destination?  Or, replace the OSU home-and-home we just finished up with one with, say, Georgetown - a much more local destination and, to my mind, a more interesting game.

Next week is a game that I think will determine the #1 seed in the tournament: Johns Hopkins.  My favorite rivalry game in any sport not involving an ACC team.  (I still think that once Syracuse becomes the ACC's fifth team, the conference should make an exception to its all-or-nothing policy and see if perhaps Hopkins is interested in making it six, for lax only.  They probably wouldn't be, but it'd be worth a try.)

the quest that stood on the edge of a knife

I guess I've waited procrastinated long enough; it's best to wait a little while after an awful loss to compose oneself before one puts words out in public that one might regret, or at least that's what I tell myself as an excuse not to write anything all weekend.  (That, and it's now officially the offseason, which means weekends pretty much entirely off, anyway.)

But if the players themselves can go meet the fans less than 24 hours after maybe the most crushing loss in program history, I can probably nut up and write a column.  I guess it's our turn to be on the wrong end of very well-intentioned words that are ultimately of small comfort.  In a year or so, when baseball is back in the spotlight (largely with a very new lineup) we'll still have, on the permanent record for 2011, the most wins in program history**, the highest CWS finish in program history, and another CWS banner on the outfield wall, not to mention the ACC championship.  That'll erase the sting of how we exited.  (Mostly.  Except when something like this happens again, because this managed to remind one of Arkansas and the 2009 CWS with stunning clarity.)

From a much larger perspective, which is a much better way to view Friday night's game, I remind you again of the record-setting season, as well as this: that record-setting season came on the heels of having to replace the majority of the batting lineup and a big chunk of the useful pitching staff.  It's the nature of baseball and draft-eligible juniors; turnover is ever-turning.  Next year we'll see even more of it.  A lot of it.  It would have me extremely apprehensive about the future, but for the successes of this year.

**More years of Brian O'Connor's tenure at UVA have been spent breaking the seasonal wins record than have been spent not breaking it.  At 56 wins it's wicked doubtful that trend can continue but there's still a little bit of room.

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Bullet points:

- Filed under "things that sucked about Friday's game," and possibly right on top, was the lost chance to see Danny Hultzen at his magnificent best.  The damnable cruel fates and their whimsical illnesses that strike when you least need them. Here's a guy who's a top-five athlete in Virginia history, proving it: he struck out eight of the ten batters he faced.  A 24-strikeout pace!  The potential was there for the greatest pitching performance in CWS history.  South Carolina fans will say and have said many things about the Friday game, but on the top of the list ought to be "please heathen gods accept this sacrifice of ten virgins in exchange for your benevolence in striking down the most feared warrior of the enemy."  There's no way South Carolina wins that game if Danny Hultzen's innards aren't infested with viruses sent by Beelzebub himself.

- Another awful thing about being on the wrong end of a game that swung on the edge of a razor: the natural instinct to second-guess.  I shouldn't, but I can't help myself.  Personal top two: given the lack of success at the plate, I'd have given some real thought to a suicide squeeze, and is Reed Gragnani's glove in center really so bad that you'd rather have Shane Halley's bat?  I was taken aback to see Gragnani replaced after pinch-hitting.  It came back to bite us in the worst way when Halley bounced weakly into a bases-loaded double play.

- Besides Hultzen, the second-most deprived player of the day was John Barr, whose heroics are now lost to the annals of time.  Barr went 3-for-6 and hit the ball on the screws in his final at-bat.  His only failure was a violation of Willie Keeler's maxim ("hit 'em where they ain't"); had his line drive been directed a couple of feet in any other direction he'd have been the hero of the hour with a 4-for-6, 2-RBI performance in a likely win.  And no, I don't fault Colin Harrington for getting doubled off, Barr's liner was hit too hard and he had little to no chance to get back to the bag.

- More silver lining from Friday: Tyler Wilson earning the Senior CLASS Award.  I tend to balk at awards where the first name in it is the name of a moneymaking company, but this is one where you make an exception.  In this case it means you have the privilege of rooting for some very outstanding people, so congratulations are in order from all corners.

- A three-part series is coming up in the near future wherein I will offer up a look at next year's lineup possibilities and quickly profile the incoming freshmen.  That starts Wednesday, so stay tuned.