Thank you to all the thoughtful people who emailed or commented to inquire whether I did, in fact, wake one billion dollars richer this morning. No. And no adorable little Shetland adorns my doorstep, either. But I have my THUNDERDOME game, and I'll happily settle for that.
The London era has been sadly lacking in decisive ass-beatings of ACC opponents. I'd call this the third, following a 31-13 drubbing of 2-7 Maryland in 2011 and a 33-6 pasting of NC State in 2012. What it hasn't seemed to lack is wins over Miami. If not being able to beat Duke, UNC, and VT is a major irritant for UVA fans in the London era, not beating UVA must be getting tiresome for Miami fans in the Al Golden days.
Having become more than used to second half collapses in both wins and losses this year, probably the best part of yesterday was the realization that another one wasn't on the way. Couldn't even pinpoint when that was, but the Hoos kept scoring and Miami kept not scoring, and I'm guessing the Miami fans watching the game gave up on a Miami comeback long before the UVA fans did. If UVA's red-zone offense was halfway decent - they scored more field goals than TDs once inside the 20, and Ian Frye's longest kick was from a line of scrimmage at the 5 - this would've looked more like the woodshedding that it was.
So the world turns again. Only college football has the ability to do that in one short game. 48 hours ago it crossed nobody's mind at all to ask which bowl game we might go to, because how silly. Now I've found myself considering the possibility in all seriousness. All of which is to say nothing of who will be the coach next year. Could one simple game change the fortunes of a career? Or at least, extend its life support another year? We'll see, I guess.
But, first, Tech. Thunderdome looms. Two teams enter, one team leaves bowl eligible. With the combination of beating hell out of Miami and Tech's spectacularly pathetic display of offense in Winston-Salem, this looks like the most winnable VT game since basically the last time we won it. What's surprising is how many VT fans have already conceded it. Their offense has been godawful this year and the idea of Max Valles and Eli Harold getting their cracks at Michael Brewer makes me giggle like a schoolgirl. Brewer's stats aren't bad, but he sure doesn't pass the eye test, either. Let the least bad team win a trip to Shreveport.
Bullety things:
-- Canaan Severin's catch: not bad. And a 14-point swing in the game, too. You could see the DB get saucer eyes from 700 miles away, and he had his arms all cradled and ready for that football; had it gotten there, he'd have been five yards downfield with a full head of steam before anyone else could put on the brakes to go that way. I'm convinced it was ten seconds from being 14-3. Instead it was a 10-7 lead that was 30-7 before Miami found the scoreboard again.
-- Alright, the goose thing was funny, but for my money the real humor was the announcers' inability to speak for laughing so hard. Flat-out lost it is what they did.
-- I think there were more Miami fans in Scott Stadium than there would've been for a Miami home game.
-- No, I'm not giving out a free pass for 12 men on the field for the punt just because we won. This is the sort of thing that explains why I don't support keeping London even if we finish this season 7-6. That shit happens all the damn time. London could fix that if he wanted to. He just has to properly incentivize Larry Lewis to do it. But it's clearly not a priority. Attention to detail still escapes this coaching staff.
-- Admit it: when you watched the first half clock tick down with no timeout being called, "here we go again" was in your brain in neon flashing lights. But I suspect that one was more on the refs. London was visibly livid. And while you really damn well ought to score a touchdown when you're that close to the end zone, I'll say this: Passing on third down was the right call. Out of timeouts, a failed run play would've meant going to the locker room empty handed.
-- I've been critical, we've all been critical, of Taquan Mizzell, so credit belongs where credit is due for this one: Mizzell ran really well yesterday. And Khalek Shepherd did a nice job as the workhorse when Parks went out of the game. He doesn't have the beef to be a piledriver, but he ran awfully damn hard.
-- Bowl talk in all seriousness: The ACC splits up its bowls into four groups. The first group is three or four bowls, depending, believe it or not, on whether the Big Ten puts a team into the Orange Bowl. (If they do, an ACC team goes to the Citrus Bowl.) We don't have to worry about this. The second group is called Tier 1, a group of four bowls (ex-Tire, Sun, Pinstripe, and either Music City or ex-Gator) that don't have a pecking order and just have to figure it out amongst themselves who they'll invite. If UVA wins this Friday, there's a very, very slim chance we could slide into one of those, but it'd be unlikely.
The next group is Tier II: the Military, Independence, and ex-Motor City, in that order. A 6-6 UVA team would be 97% likely to land in one of these. East Carolina is the clear fourth team in the AAC, which slots them right to the Military; a very safe bet in the event of a UVA win over Tech is a trip to DC to face ECU. Next most likely, I think, is actually Detroit; this would probably happen if there's no Citrus (50/50 chance of that), and the top 7 slots get filled with FSU, Clemson, GT, Louisville, ND, Duke, and UNC. And Pitt loses to Miami and doesn't go bowling. BC might then be the choice of the Military; their fans are still in close enough proximity and they've had a better season. Miami would be a natural choice for the Independence. Detroit would be left with the Hoos. As you can imagine, I'd be all over this. I even have tickets already. Won them at a Lions game.
-- Watching Frank Beamer exult over a missed short field goal that meant he didn't just lose 3-0 to the worst team in the ACC - well, the sadness of that display was immediately evident, so I wasn't surprised to see that picture more or less all over Twitterdom. You want an image of the sorry state of VT football, that's your thousand words right there. But in absolute fairness to the Hokies, their fanbase is livid over their 5-6 season and at least 80% of them want Beamer out the door right now - and our fanbase is looking at the same 5-6 record (except with a way worse last four years) and the majority is either supportive or at least accepting of the idea of keeping London around as a reward. That too is a statement.
Prediction summary:
-- UVA allows at least three sacks.
-- And throws at least two picks.
-- Duke Johnson is held reasonably in check, averaging no more than 5.5 yards a carry.
-- Kaaya throws at least three passes of 30 yards or more. Precisely zilch of these came true. Also I picked the game's outcome as badly as possible.
Stats on the season:
20-for-54 on specifics (37%)
6-4 straight up (L)
4-4-1 ATS (L)
Showing posts with label shepherd. Show all posts
Showing posts with label shepherd. Show all posts
Sunday, November 23, 2014
Friday, September 26, 2014
game preview: Kent State
TV: ESPN3
Record against the Flashes: 0-0
Last meeting: N/A
Last weekend: BYU 41, UVA 33; KSU bye
Line: UVA by 27.5
Injury report: N/A
Like UCLA before, UVA has never played Kent State. Unlike UCLA, the Golden Flashes do not present a formidable challenge. The Hoos have gone bowling once under Mike London, which also happens to be the only season UVA has had a winning record after five games. That's the expectation this week, though; failure to do so wouldn't be so much a nail in the coffin - more a railroad spike. That said, it's not a given that Kent State isn't the worst team on UVA's schedule.
-- UVA run offense vs. KSU run defense
Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 63 carries, 197 yards, 3.1 avg, 1 TD
Khalek Shepherd: 31 carries, 144 yards, 4.6 avg, 1 TD
UVA offense:
145.75 yards/game, 3.58 yards/attempt
96th of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)
KSU defense:
215.0 yards/game, 4.39 yards/attempt
84th of 128 (national), 6th of 13 (MAC)
The main intrigue here is whether Khalek Shepherd is working his way past Taquan Mizzell as the second back in the offense. He was certainly the hot hand against BYU, getting the most carries and yards of any running back on either team. Offensive line struggles notwithstanding, Mizzell has simply been a disappointment so far, and it wouldn't surprise to see Shepherd nose into the conversation much as he did last year.
Kent State has done a respectable-ish job against teams of similar talent levels - the Ohio Bobcats didn't get much going, and South Alabama got their yards but had to grind for them - but were utterly overmatched against Ohio State. No surprise, that. KSU is a little undersized at defensive tackle, employing the 265-pound Nate Terhune at three-tech, though they've also eschewed the the small, quick DEs often used by college teams in favor of a pair of 250-pounders.
The ever-popular indicator of bad defense, though - safeties making all the tackles - is clear and present in the Golden Flashes' stat listing. Starting safeties Nate Holley and Jordan Italiano combine for 64 tackles, just over a quarter of the Kent State total. I don't expect UVA's run game to go wild, because O-line, and I'd be a little disappointed too if Steve Fairchild opened the playbook much farther. Save something for the ACC games and all that. But I do think UVA's top three backs will each improve on their season average, and there ought to be a Daniel Hamm sighting as well.
-- UVA pass offense vs. KSU pass defense
Quarterback:
Matt Johns: 34/58, 58.6%; 367 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs; 6.33 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 16 rec., 62 yards, 0 TDs
Canaan Severin: 15 rec., 165 yards, 2 TDs
Miles Gooch: 13 rec., 163 yards, 1 TD
UVA offense:
234.25 yards/game, 6.01 yards/attempt
106th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)
KSU defense:
255.7 yards/game, 9.24 yards/attempt
124th of 128 (national), 12th of 13 (MAC)
That was the good part of Kent State's defense, by the way. If the run defense was overmatched against the Buckeyes, the pass defense was obliterated, with OSU quarterback JT Barrett averaging a first down every time he dropped back to pass. Ohio's Derrius Vick completed 3/4ths of his passes, averaged even more yards than Barrett did, and didn't throw a pick.
The defensive stats don't look good at all. Kent State defenders have only broken up five passes, intercepted one, and registered all of two sacks. The latter is especially low; if anyone gets close to our quarterback on Saturday with any consistency, it'll be cause for major concern.
Who that quarterback is, is still unknown. Mike London stated that Greyson Lambert wouldn't go unless he was 100%, and if he's 100% on his ankle after just one week that's great news, but that's a tricky thing. The guess here is that Lambert won't play at all, with Matt Johns getting the start and David Watford first in line for any garbage time. With Kent State undersized at corner and matching up against UVA's much larger targets, I would think multiple receivers ought to have big days, which in the current setup where everything is spread way around and there's no dominant receiver, is about five catches.
-- KSU run offense vs. UVA run defense
Top backs:
Nick Holley: 25 carries, 87 yards, 0 TDs
Anthony Meray: 14 carries, 33 yards, 0 TDs
KSU offense:
47.33 yards/game, 1.95 yards/attempt
126th of 128 (national), 13th of 13 (MAC)
UVA defense:
99.75 yards/game, 2.98 yards/attempt
26th of 128 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)
OK, so part of the problem with Kent State's run game is that they're not real good in pass protection, and have lost 50 yards to sacks. Add that yardage back in, and they're still 118th in the country at about 2.6 yards a carry. And this is mostly against bad teams, mind you - OSU shut them down, of course, but so has everyone. UVA's run game isn't very good, but it does achieve a minimum level of competence. Kent State's run game is just useless.
Lack of size is again a problem, as KSU's backs are just plain small. Nick Holley is actually averaging 3.5 yards a carry, but it's boosted by his 20-yard scampers, one each against USA and OSU. Take them out and he's under two yards. The next longest run on the team belongs to quarterback Colin Reardon: nine yards.
Against a defense like UVA's, this is all pretty bad news. This is likely to be UVA's most favorable matchup of the rest of the year. I'd say our brilliant linebackers, Coley and Romero, are poised for a field day, but if our coaches are smart they'll rotate in guys like Micah Kiser and Zach Bradshaw nice and early. And the defensive line might hog a bunch of the tackles before the linebackers can even get there. You can color me surprised if Kent State even manages 50 yards on the ground; if the pass rush is on its game, the total might just be negative.
-- KSU pass offense vs. UVA pass defense
Quarterback:
Colin Reardon: 61/108, 56.5%; 553 yards, 4 TDs, 4 INTs; 5.12 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Ernest Calhoun: 15 rec., 128 yards, 0 TDs
Casey Pierce: 11 rec., 128 yards, 1 TD
Nick Holley: 11 rec., 74 yards, 1 TD
KSU offense:
185.3 yards/game, 4.83 yards/attempt
125th of 128 (national), 12th of 13 (MAC)
UVA defense:
248.8 yards/game, 6.77 yards/attempt
61st of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)
For as crummy a run game as he has supporting him, Kent State QB Colin Reardon is putting up a game effort. Reardon is a reasonably efficient passer, all things considered, and was thrown into the fire last year as a true freshman and responded well. He can scramble a bit, a useful talent given the protection he doesn't receive, and while he didn't light up the scoreboard against Ohio and USA, his passing wasn't the reason the Flashes lost, either.
That said, Ohio State smothered him, badly. Kent's O-line couldn't protect him, allowing four sacks, and Reardon threw three picks as well. UVA's defense is much closer to OSU than to Kent State's other opponents in terms of talent and athleticism, and should be expected to harass him all day. Kent State favors shorter passes, not unlike UVA - the kind that are more easily batted down at the line. Max Valles was made to chase down moderately scrambley quarterbacks, as well as knock down passes from ones who are 6'1" like Reardon, and ought to have himself a day.
The thing we'll all have our eyes on, though, is whether Demetrious Nicholson will make his season debut. He's supposedly close, and this would be a good warm-up, as he'll be needed right away next week in order to help shut down Tyler Boyd of Pittsburgh. I think Nicholson will play, even if cautiously, and even a rusty Nicholson is still an improvement over Tim Harris right now.
-- Favorability ratings
UVA run offense: 6.5
UVA pass offense: 7
UVA run defense: 9.5
UVA pass defense: 8.5
Average: 7.875
-- Outlook
Pretty darn good. Saturday should be a fun day on defense. UVA isn't going to win every matchup on every play on offense, and just isn't explosive enough to curb-stomp the Flashes the way OSU did. But when KSU gets the ball, they'll simply be severely overmatched and very one-dimensional. UVA ought to be able to set up tents in the Kent State backfield and maybe roast some marshmallows. Anything short of a very convincing win would be a disappointment.
-- Predictions
- Demetrious Nicholson plays.
- So does Daniel Hamm.
- Greyson Lambert does not.
- UVA's top three backs - Parks, Mizzell, and Shepherd - each beat their season averages per carry, which right now are 3.1, 3.4, and 4.6.
- Kent State fails to reach 50 yards on the ground, including sacks.
- Max Valles records at least one sack and two batted passes.
Final score: UVA 34, KSU 3
-- Rest of the ACC
Bye: Georgia Tech
Boston College vs. Colorado State, 12:30 - CSU could be dangerous, but expect BC to keep rolling toward a second straight bowl nonetheless.
Virginia Tech vs. Western Michigan, 12:30 - VT just lost home games on back-to-back weekends. Last time that happened? 1995.
Pittsburgh vs. Akron, 1:30 - The Steel-Belted Radials Bowl.
Wake Forest @ Louisville, 3:30 - Just so you know, E.J. Scott is on pace for a really nice season.
Florida State @ NC State, 3:30 - You get the feeling that FSU is headed for a drop off their #1 perch, and NC State has historically been a very rough patch for them.
North Carolina @ Clemson, 7:00 - Hahahahahaha 70 points.
Duke @ Miami, 7:30 - Actually a pretty big Coastal game.
Syracuse vs. Notre Dame, 8:00 - The historical first of Notre Dame's contracted ACC games. Face it, Domers - it's basically your first-ever conference game.
Monday, September 22, 2014
weekend review
I think we learned two simple things this Saturday: How far we've come, and how far we have to go. Dare we say, the Hoos looked better losing this weekend than they did beating BYU last year. That's a very offense-centric point of view (the defense was a little less than completely suffocating), but then, we've long known what has to get better before anything good can happen.
Had UVA pulled that one off, it might well have been fair for the front office to start planning those postseason mailers. Kent State shouldn't be an obstacle (I reiterate my stance from last year: they're the kind of team that if you can't beat them, you're not talking postseason anyway) and the way the Coastal is, two wins in six tries should be eminently doable. Now it's three wins in six tries.
That's still a doable mission. Most of these teams have gaping, exploitable holes. So do we, and teams will take advantage, but UVA is showing the ability to return the favor. We'll get what should be a nice simple week from a pretty lousy Kent State team, and then every game from then on out will hold our interest in a vise grip, because there's a lot of future riding on every single one.
Points in brief:
-- I'm not, like, pissing mad about the referee's call on the fourth-down fumble, even though it's one they don't usually make. I mean, hang on to the ball and don't give 'em the chance, you know? But since when is the left tackle allowed to "shift" his way three yards downfield before the snap? C'mon man.
-- It's really nice to have reliable placekicking again. Ian Frye might be the best kicker at UVA since Chris Gould.
-- Four games into the season and I have yet to complain about clock management.
-- No, I don't think the play of Matt Johns sparks - or should spark - yet another QB controversy. Lambert was clearly the guy before he twinged his ankle, and it sure looks like there was no intent at all to play Johns. (That said, Johns is good enough that there was no real urgency to force Lambert back into the game and risk re-injury.) Johns played against a lot softer of a BYU defense, one clearly willing to trade yardage for time.
Prediction review:
- At least 75% of UVA's offensive yardage is through the air. First of all, lemme just point out that 519 yards is pretty outstanding. Some of that was that bendier defense, but you'd have to be blind to miss the improvement in the offense this week. Secondly, before declaring that UVA's run game was going to be the same three-yard slog all season, I should've remembered what happened last year. That was when I was giving Steve Fairchild credit for scheming Kevin Parks's 1,000 yards into existence, and that's borne out in the stats; even though the results were getting worse and worse, Parks's running improved in the second half. This year, it may be that Fairchild's schemes are coming into play earlier, which would be a big plus given that we don't have much of a prayer of simply blowing holes in D-lines. Anyway, the pass accounted for about 63% of the yardage - well within the bounds of reasonable balance and the result not of a worse passing game than expected, but a better run game.
- Greyson Lambert has a season (and career) high in pass attempts. He did, even despite his early departure.
- Kevin Parks has at least 75% of UVA's rushing yards. Parks was only the third-best back this week, behind Lambert and Khalek Shepherd.
- Both Hill and Williams get at least half a yard less per carry than their season average. Taysom Hill was held reasonably in check, but a huge part of the reason for the loss was Jamaal Williams running a bit freer than he should've.
- Hill doesn't complete 60% of his passes. Hill was held to 56%.
Going 2 for 5 is not too bad. If I can get 40% on the season that's pretty good, considering the nature of these predictions. Here's my stats for the year so far:
7-for-18 on specifics (38.9%)
2-1 straight up
1-1 ATS
*******************************************
Senior Seasons next, in which we track the progess of our verbals across the Friday night lights of autumn:
Hun School 56, Wyoming Seminary 14: Chris Sharp had a big game with 149 yards rushing, 57 yards receiving, and three touchdowns, one through the air. Hun is 1-0.
Bedford 50, Greater Johnstown 36: Kareem Gibson returned a kickoff 98 yards for a touchdown, but it wasn't enough in the loss. Johnstown is 3-1.
Gonzaga 51, McKinley Tech 0: Nick Johns threw a pair of touchdowns in the rout, and somehow was only 6-for-9 despite there being 7 receptions in the box score. I should've known better than to trust a box score with "wiki" in the URL. I'll buy the two touchdowns, but there's no way you score 51 points and your quarterback throws the ball nine times. Anyway, Gonzaga is 4-0, and has a showdown with Good Counsel next week.
Sherando 24, Kettle Run 7: David Eldridge had seven catches for 75 yards. Kettle Run is 1-2.
Altavista 56, Galax 7: Juan Thornhill accounted for four touchdowns - three rushing and one passing. Altavista is 3-0.
Venice 30, Charlotte 6 (Grant Polk) - Charlotte is 2-1.
Buford 42, White County 10 (David Curry) - Buford is 5-0.
Manasquan 15, Monmouth 6 (Tanner Cowley) - Manasquan is 1-1.
Lakota West 27, Middletown 24 (C.J. Stalker) - Lakota West is 2-2.
Cathedral Prep 51, DuBois 21 (James Trucilla) - Cathedral Prep is 4-0.
Plymouth-Whitemarsh 34, Upper Merion 10 (Ryan Bischoff) - P-W is 2-2.
G. Washington 14, Phila. Northeast 12 (Gladimir Paul) - Northeast is 0-4.
South Aiken 16, Strom Thurmond 13 (Rasool Clemons) - South Aiken is 2-2.
Gilman 20, Good Counsel 0 (Myles Robinson) - OLGC is 3-1.
Woodrow Wilson 27, Surrattsville 20 (Kareem McDonald) - Wilson is 2-2.
Patrick Henry 17, Lee-Davis 14 (Eli Hanback) - Patrick Henry is 1-2.
Liberty 44, Mountain View 7 (R.J. Proctor) - Liberty is 3-0.
Hickory 42, Deep Creek 9 (Richard Burney) - Hickory is 1-2.
Ocean Lakes 45, Green Run 10 (Jahvoni Simmons) - Ocean Lakes is 3-0.
Had UVA pulled that one off, it might well have been fair for the front office to start planning those postseason mailers. Kent State shouldn't be an obstacle (I reiterate my stance from last year: they're the kind of team that if you can't beat them, you're not talking postseason anyway) and the way the Coastal is, two wins in six tries should be eminently doable. Now it's three wins in six tries.
That's still a doable mission. Most of these teams have gaping, exploitable holes. So do we, and teams will take advantage, but UVA is showing the ability to return the favor. We'll get what should be a nice simple week from a pretty lousy Kent State team, and then every game from then on out will hold our interest in a vise grip, because there's a lot of future riding on every single one.
Points in brief:
-- I'm not, like, pissing mad about the referee's call on the fourth-down fumble, even though it's one they don't usually make. I mean, hang on to the ball and don't give 'em the chance, you know? But since when is the left tackle allowed to "shift" his way three yards downfield before the snap? C'mon man.
-- It's really nice to have reliable placekicking again. Ian Frye might be the best kicker at UVA since Chris Gould.
-- Four games into the season and I have yet to complain about clock management.
-- No, I don't think the play of Matt Johns sparks - or should spark - yet another QB controversy. Lambert was clearly the guy before he twinged his ankle, and it sure looks like there was no intent at all to play Johns. (That said, Johns is good enough that there was no real urgency to force Lambert back into the game and risk re-injury.) Johns played against a lot softer of a BYU defense, one clearly willing to trade yardage for time.
Prediction review:
- At least 75% of UVA's offensive yardage is through the air. First of all, lemme just point out that 519 yards is pretty outstanding. Some of that was that bendier defense, but you'd have to be blind to miss the improvement in the offense this week. Secondly, before declaring that UVA's run game was going to be the same three-yard slog all season, I should've remembered what happened last year. That was when I was giving Steve Fairchild credit for scheming Kevin Parks's 1,000 yards into existence, and that's borne out in the stats; even though the results were getting worse and worse, Parks's running improved in the second half. This year, it may be that Fairchild's schemes are coming into play earlier, which would be a big plus given that we don't have much of a prayer of simply blowing holes in D-lines. Anyway, the pass accounted for about 63% of the yardage - well within the bounds of reasonable balance and the result not of a worse passing game than expected, but a better run game.
- Greyson Lambert has a season (and career) high in pass attempts. He did, even despite his early departure.
- Kevin Parks has at least 75% of UVA's rushing yards. Parks was only the third-best back this week, behind Lambert and Khalek Shepherd.
- Both Hill and Williams get at least half a yard less per carry than their season average. Taysom Hill was held reasonably in check, but a huge part of the reason for the loss was Jamaal Williams running a bit freer than he should've.
- Hill doesn't complete 60% of his passes. Hill was held to 56%.
Going 2 for 5 is not too bad. If I can get 40% on the season that's pretty good, considering the nature of these predictions. Here's my stats for the year so far:
7-for-18 on specifics (38.9%)
2-1 straight up
1-1 ATS
*******************************************
Senior Seasons next, in which we track the progess of our verbals across the Friday night lights of autumn:
Hun School 56, Wyoming Seminary 14: Chris Sharp had a big game with 149 yards rushing, 57 yards receiving, and three touchdowns, one through the air. Hun is 1-0.
Bedford 50, Greater Johnstown 36: Kareem Gibson returned a kickoff 98 yards for a touchdown, but it wasn't enough in the loss. Johnstown is 3-1.
Gonzaga 51, McKinley Tech 0: Nick Johns threw a pair of touchdowns in the rout, and somehow was only 6-for-9 despite there being 7 receptions in the box score. I should've known better than to trust a box score with "wiki" in the URL. I'll buy the two touchdowns, but there's no way you score 51 points and your quarterback throws the ball nine times. Anyway, Gonzaga is 4-0, and has a showdown with Good Counsel next week.
Sherando 24, Kettle Run 7: David Eldridge had seven catches for 75 yards. Kettle Run is 1-2.
Altavista 56, Galax 7: Juan Thornhill accounted for four touchdowns - three rushing and one passing. Altavista is 3-0.
Venice 30, Charlotte 6 (Grant Polk) - Charlotte is 2-1.
Buford 42, White County 10 (David Curry) - Buford is 5-0.
Manasquan 15, Monmouth 6 (Tanner Cowley) - Manasquan is 1-1.
Lakota West 27, Middletown 24 (C.J. Stalker) - Lakota West is 2-2.
Cathedral Prep 51, DuBois 21 (James Trucilla) - Cathedral Prep is 4-0.
Plymouth-Whitemarsh 34, Upper Merion 10 (Ryan Bischoff) - P-W is 2-2.
G. Washington 14, Phila. Northeast 12 (Gladimir Paul) - Northeast is 0-4.
South Aiken 16, Strom Thurmond 13 (Rasool Clemons) - South Aiken is 2-2.
Gilman 20, Good Counsel 0 (Myles Robinson) - OLGC is 3-1.
Woodrow Wilson 27, Surrattsville 20 (Kareem McDonald) - Wilson is 2-2.
Patrick Henry 17, Lee-Davis 14 (Eli Hanback) - Patrick Henry is 1-2.
Liberty 44, Mountain View 7 (R.J. Proctor) - Liberty is 3-0.
Hickory 42, Deep Creek 9 (Richard Burney) - Hickory is 1-2.
Ocean Lakes 45, Green Run 10 (Jahvoni Simmons) - Ocean Lakes is 3-0.
Friday, December 13, 2013
what went right
In a 2-10 season, very little. But we're going to try and put on a smiley face and see if there weren't a few nuggets of goodness here and there. It's kind of a fake smiley face, mind you.
Also, as good as Brent Urban was this year, we're going to limit it to things that can be applied to next year. That way there's no false hope. Nope, nothing but real optimism in this post.
Kevin Parks
Parks recorded the first 1,000-yard season by a UVA back since Alvin Pearman in 2004. This is a pretty nice individual achievement. I'm going to break my optimism rule, though, by pointing out that it was largely due to not having to extensively share carries. Several seasons since then, there would've been a 1,000-yard rusher if the carries had not been split, and that 2004 season almost had two such accomplishments, with Wali Lundy falling 100-and-some short. Even the much-maligned Michael Johnson looked awfully good that year. UVA had a powerful rushing attack in 2004.
Still. The more-overarching point to this is that Steve Fairchild deserves a pretty good deal of credit for this. Parks is a solid back with good vision and balance and he hits a hole pretty quick. And, obviously, highly durable. But he's also thoroughly unexplosive; he had just one run all season over 50 yards, and in seven of twelve games, didn't pass 20 on any one run. This means he can't pad out his stats by being bottled up all game and then bursting through for one huge run to make the whole day look good. In order for Parks to rack up yards, he has to do it on a lot of different plays, and he needs good blocking to do it.
And this was an offensive line that lost most of its physical battles. So how to get an unexplosive back running behind an unproductive line to the 1,000-yard marker? Schemes. Fairchild's playbook deserves much of the credit for the accomplishment. It's why when the whole fanbase is giving him an F-minus, I give Fairchild a C. I had as much hate and discontent as anyone over things like short-side sweeps on 4th-and-2, but we have to apply Sherlock Holmes's maxim here. When you've eliminated all else, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth. Parks didn't get to 1,000 yard by racing away from defenders and he didn't get there because the offensive line blew open holes for him. What remains is Fairchild, however, unpopular a conclusion that may be.
Anthony Harris
Actually this sort of breaks another rule, the one about being able to apply this stuff to next year, because seasons like Harris's regress to the mean most of the time. Still, you just can't knock the nation's interceptions leader. The problem with a safety, unfortunately, is that a good one cannot make a bad defense good, but a bad one can make a good defense bad.
So the defense as a whole didn't really follow suit. But a guy with instincts like Harris's, but with 12 extra games under his belt, ought to be a force on the field next year.
Eric Smith
Smith was a true freshman on the offensive line, which at times went about how you'd expect. Georgia Tech was a particular case, in which Smith had to go up against Jeremiah Attaochu all day and spent the whole day eating Attaochu's cleats. Sometimes he was just freshman-y.
Sometimes, though, he was fantastic. Clemson's Vic Beasley finished the season with 12 sacks, but never recorded one against Smith and UVA. Smith had a good game against VT as well, and over the course of the season, the good outweighed the bad. UVA has a good one in Smith, who could be the left tackle for the next three years.
Linebackers
I asserted early in the season, here and on TheSabre too, that I thought Daquan Romero should be the top candidate to lead the team in tackles. I ended up being off by two; Henry Coley nudged him out 91-89. Both Coley and Romero showed impressive instincts this year; Romero was particularly excellent at sniffing out and blowing up screen plays.
Combined with Harris, these two will give UVA more quarterbacks on defense next year than it knows what to do with. Their ranginess gave Jon Tenuta confidence enough to use his third linebacker spot on Max Valles, who couldn't do much more than pass rush.
Eli Harold
Not only did he pile up eight sacks, he averaged 10 yards on them.
******************************************
There are a few honorable mention names that don't really qualify as full bright spots. David Dean piled up very nice numbers for a DT but generally needed Brent Urban next to him. Without Urban, teams tended to smother Dean. Hopefully next year as he becomes an upperclassman he'll be the guy opening up a lane for his neighbor. Daniel Hamm had that one really nice game; pity he got relegated to the back of the bench anyway. Khalek Shepherd, when healthy, was a nice change of pace back. Urban, of course, was outstanding, and his loss probably cost UVA a win somewhere along the line.
Everything else that happened pretty much earns a D at best. And if there's a grade lower than F-minus-minus-minus, I'll hand it out to the quarterbacks and receivers. Can you get a Z-minus? At least, though, a few players kept us interested. Bravo to that. I have every confidence this team can show the progress it needs to double its win total next year.
Also, as good as Brent Urban was this year, we're going to limit it to things that can be applied to next year. That way there's no false hope. Nope, nothing but real optimism in this post.
Kevin Parks
Parks recorded the first 1,000-yard season by a UVA back since Alvin Pearman in 2004. This is a pretty nice individual achievement. I'm going to break my optimism rule, though, by pointing out that it was largely due to not having to extensively share carries. Several seasons since then, there would've been a 1,000-yard rusher if the carries had not been split, and that 2004 season almost had two such accomplishments, with Wali Lundy falling 100-and-some short. Even the much-maligned Michael Johnson looked awfully good that year. UVA had a powerful rushing attack in 2004.
Still. The more-overarching point to this is that Steve Fairchild deserves a pretty good deal of credit for this. Parks is a solid back with good vision and balance and he hits a hole pretty quick. And, obviously, highly durable. But he's also thoroughly unexplosive; he had just one run all season over 50 yards, and in seven of twelve games, didn't pass 20 on any one run. This means he can't pad out his stats by being bottled up all game and then bursting through for one huge run to make the whole day look good. In order for Parks to rack up yards, he has to do it on a lot of different plays, and he needs good blocking to do it.
And this was an offensive line that lost most of its physical battles. So how to get an unexplosive back running behind an unproductive line to the 1,000-yard marker? Schemes. Fairchild's playbook deserves much of the credit for the accomplishment. It's why when the whole fanbase is giving him an F-minus, I give Fairchild a C. I had as much hate and discontent as anyone over things like short-side sweeps on 4th-and-2, but we have to apply Sherlock Holmes's maxim here. When you've eliminated all else, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth. Parks didn't get to 1,000 yard by racing away from defenders and he didn't get there because the offensive line blew open holes for him. What remains is Fairchild, however, unpopular a conclusion that may be.
Anthony Harris
Actually this sort of breaks another rule, the one about being able to apply this stuff to next year, because seasons like Harris's regress to the mean most of the time. Still, you just can't knock the nation's interceptions leader. The problem with a safety, unfortunately, is that a good one cannot make a bad defense good, but a bad one can make a good defense bad.
So the defense as a whole didn't really follow suit. But a guy with instincts like Harris's, but with 12 extra games under his belt, ought to be a force on the field next year.
Eric Smith
Smith was a true freshman on the offensive line, which at times went about how you'd expect. Georgia Tech was a particular case, in which Smith had to go up against Jeremiah Attaochu all day and spent the whole day eating Attaochu's cleats. Sometimes he was just freshman-y.
Sometimes, though, he was fantastic. Clemson's Vic Beasley finished the season with 12 sacks, but never recorded one against Smith and UVA. Smith had a good game against VT as well, and over the course of the season, the good outweighed the bad. UVA has a good one in Smith, who could be the left tackle for the next three years.
Linebackers
I asserted early in the season, here and on TheSabre too, that I thought Daquan Romero should be the top candidate to lead the team in tackles. I ended up being off by two; Henry Coley nudged him out 91-89. Both Coley and Romero showed impressive instincts this year; Romero was particularly excellent at sniffing out and blowing up screen plays.
Combined with Harris, these two will give UVA more quarterbacks on defense next year than it knows what to do with. Their ranginess gave Jon Tenuta confidence enough to use his third linebacker spot on Max Valles, who couldn't do much more than pass rush.
Eli Harold
Not only did he pile up eight sacks, he averaged 10 yards on them.
******************************************
There are a few honorable mention names that don't really qualify as full bright spots. David Dean piled up very nice numbers for a DT but generally needed Brent Urban next to him. Without Urban, teams tended to smother Dean. Hopefully next year as he becomes an upperclassman he'll be the guy opening up a lane for his neighbor. Daniel Hamm had that one really nice game; pity he got relegated to the back of the bench anyway. Khalek Shepherd, when healthy, was a nice change of pace back. Urban, of course, was outstanding, and his loss probably cost UVA a win somewhere along the line.
Everything else that happened pretty much earns a D at best. And if there's a grade lower than F-minus-minus-minus, I'll hand it out to the quarterbacks and receivers. Can you get a Z-minus? At least, though, a few players kept us interested. Bravo to that. I have every confidence this team can show the progress it needs to double its win total next year.
Thursday, October 17, 2013
game preview: Duke
Date/Time: Saturday, October 20; 3:30
TV: RSN, ESPN3
Record against the Blue Devils: 33-31
Last meeting: Duke 42, UVA 17; 10/6/12, Durham
Last weekend: Md. 27, UVA 26; Duke 35, Navy 7
Line: UVA by 3
Injury report:
Virginia:
OUT - OL George Adeosun, PK Ian Frye, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, DT Brent Urban, CB Wil Wahee
DOUBTFUL - none
QUESTIONABLE - none
PROBABLE - LB Daquan Romero, RB Khalek Shepherd
Duke:
OUT - CB Jared Boyd, LB Kyler Brown, QB Thomas Sirk, OT Tanner Stone, DT Jamal Wallace
DOUBTFUL - none
QUESTIONABLE - WR Johnell Barnes
PROBABLE - QB Brandon Connette, DT A.J. Wolf
I can't believe I'm still using the word "bowl" anymore, but I'm stupid like that, and if UVA wants to get there, this game is basically a must-win. Most games are these days; Mike London is finding the recruiting trail colder and colder. The losses will do that. Yet another loss to Duke would be another pile of ammo for opposing coaches. Even better, UVA will have to go after this game without two of its best defensive players. This is what the beginning of the end of a coaching regime looks like; the Hoos need a win here to stave that off.
-- UVA run offense vs. Duke run defense
Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 116 carries, 510 yards, 4.4 ypc, 6 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 29 carries, 223 yards, 7.7 ypc, 1 TD
UVA offense:
188.83 yards/game, 4.24 yards/attempt
69th of 125 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)
Duke defense:
178.00 yards/game, 4.12 yards/attempt
67th of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)
You just wonder which offensive line will show up this week. The one that couldn't move a wad of cotton candy, or the one that has paved the way to consecutive 240-yard (ish) running games? Probably both, actually; the question might be better put as, how will Steve Fairchild scheme this out?
For all the Duke-sucks-at-defense publicity out there, the run defense is not completely terrible. Much of the yardage they've given up has been at the hands of Georgia Tech and Navy, the triple-option warriors. Other teams have found room, but not a wide world of it. Duke is getting respectable linebacker play from Kelby Brown and David Helton, and the defensive line has at least one very good all-around player in defensive end Kenny Anunike.
However, Duke is far from dominant, even if their stats are skewed somewhat by the triple option. And despite the last couple games, UVA is far from dominant as well. This is one of those matchups that is just there. UVA will have a fair amount of success and none of it is likely to swing the game one way or the other. With the season slipping away, the offense is going to lean hard on what's been working and experiment furiously with what hasn't. Kevin Parks is one of those things that's been working. Khalek Shepherd may have earned a few extra carries against Maryland, as he ran the ball well when given a chance, but I think those will come at the expense of Taquan Mizzell, not Parks.
So you'll probably see Parks settle nicely in to another grinding 20-carry, 100-yard game. I think the 240-yard success they've been having isn't especially sustainable, but I'm sufficiently de-traumatized to think that between Parks, Shepherd, and some Watford scrambles, the offense should be able to grind out around 200 or so.
-- UVA pass offense vs. Duke pass defense
Quarterback:
David Watford: 128/215, 59.5%; 1,076 yards, 4 TDs, 7 INTs; 5.01 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 27 rec., 233 yards, 2 TDs
Kevin Parks: 19 rec., 182 yards, 0 TDs
UVA offense:
186.7 yards/game, 4.8 yards/attempt
125th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)
Duke defense:
208.5 yards/game, 7.4 yards/attempt
80th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)
You'd have to be blind not to see the improvement in David Watford the past two weeks - and equally blind not to see the very incremental nature of that improvement. It's a cruel way to make me have to try and predict what'll happen next. Anything from regression to another jump forward is possible at this stage of Watford's development.
As Tom Savage at Pitt proved, it's possible to utterly shred Duke's pass defense. Troy was able to do the same, which is why Duke's game against them was close. It takes a good quarterback to pull that off (which is sort of circular reasoning in that if you can pick up 400 yards through the air you're considered a good quarterback) but UVA could roll up many fewer yards than Pitt or Troy and it would still be considered a good sign of improvement.
Duke's top cornerback Ross Cockrell is a quality player, but that's basically the full list of them in the secondary. Freshman nickel corner Bryon Fields has been outplaying fifth-year senior Garett Patterson. Safety Jeremy Cash does have two interceptions, but UVA's not-deep-at-all pass game tends to leave the opposing safeties out of it.
Kenny Anunike at DE is a good pass-rusher as well as run-stopper, so he'll be Watford's main concern here; Duke will also bring in speed rusher Jonathan Woodruff on passing downs in the other DE position, and he too has a few sacks to his name this year. There's otherwise no real threat, so Watford should have more time than he's used to as long as the tackles keep their man in front.
I don't know how many passes it'll take, but Watford ought to be able to reach 200 yards for the third straight game. I may even be setting the bar too low. I'm definitely exhibiting some low-ass standards when I say that he should also be able, for the second straight game, to top six yards per attempt. That's such a weak number to aim for but since he's getting no help at all from his receivers, it's what we got.
-- Duke run offense vs. UVA run defense
Top backs:
Jela Duncan: 56 carries, 292 yards, 5.2 ypc, 3 TDs
Josh Snead: 46 carries, 280 yards, 6.1 ypc, 0 TDs
Duke offense:
183.17 yards/game, 4.58 yards/attempt
54th of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)
UVA defense:
147.00 yards/game, 3.96 yards/attempt
53rd of 125 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)
A big reason for Duke's renaissance has been the development of a respectable offensive line. It's very cohesive and has started all six games for Duke in the same configuration. Must be nice. Anyway, they've been doing a nice job paving the way for running backs Jela Duncan and Josh Snead. The competition hasn't been bad, either; Memphis, for example, is a surprising seventh in the nation in run defense.
So, going at this without our top defensive lineman is going to be a challenge. There's a pretty clear step down in results when you ask true freshman Donte Wilkins to step in for Brent Urban. It's no knock on Wilkins, who will probably develop into a pretty good player, but Urban is Urban. His loss will be huge.
I don't like seeing Daquan Romero on the injury report either, even if he is listed as probable. I damn near threw something at the TV when I saw Romero being tended to, because that made him, Jake McGee, and Urban the subject of the trainers' attention against Maryland. Pick the three players we can least live without. Probably those three.
Anyway, I digress. Duke will present a challenge and a half here, more so depending on how they use backup QB Brandon Connette. Anthony Boone is a small threat to run; Connette is a bigger one. Before Boone broke his collarbone and Connette's ankle kept him out of last week's game against Navy, Duke liked to use both. Connette averages about 12 carries a game and even had a 101-yard day against Pitt. It's a wrinkle that'll make the task all the harder.
If we had Urban, I'd feel good about holding Duke down here. Good defenses have been able to limit them. Urban is the kind of guy who can win matchups on his own and free up others to watch the pass. Without him, that favorability rating is going to drop a notch or two, and I think Duke can move the ball just enough to open up their dangerous passing game.
-- Duke pass offense vs. UVA pass defense
Quarterback:
Anthony Boone: 58/74, 78.4%; 570 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; 7.7 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Jamison Crowder: 47 rec., 618 yards, 2 TDs
Brandon Braxton: 21 rec., 206 yards, 2 TDs
Duke offense:
265.7 yards/game, 8.3 yards/attempt
33rd of 125 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)
UVA defense:
214.8 yards/game, 6.3 yards/attempt
29th of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)
Once again this becomes the game determinant. Anthony Boone has been extraordinarily efficient. Brandon Connette has been good too, but Boone will be the starter and the primary passer. He had a terrific game against a pretty good Navy pass defense last week, and that 78% completion percentage is outstanding.
Boone will get the ball out quick, which was the bane of our existence against Ball State. The Ball State game is not without its parallels here. Duke's receivers are capable of big plays but will probably be targeted quickly rather than Duke having Boone sit in the pocket waiting for the play to develop. Jamison Crowder is the favorite target of both quarterbacks, and has two double-digit reception games with Boone throwing to him. Ordinarily we'd have Demetrious Nicholson on him and that would be a pretty big matchup, but now, I guess we'll have to see.
Brandon Braxton does a nice job complementing Crowder, and Duke will use some huge targets over the middle as well. Tight end Braxton Deaver is a key part of the attack, and Issac Blakeney is a massive possession receiver at 6'6", 235. The array of weapons presents a big challenge. Additionally, because of the scrambley nature of Duke's quarterbacks, and their quality offensive line, teams have had a tough time getting to them on the pass rush.
I do not like our chances one bit here. Jon Tenuta's aggressive style kind of demands that the opponent take a little extra time finding a receiver. That would be hard enough with Nicholson. Now you've got no Nicholson and upheaval at the free safety position; I won't be the least bit surprised if the Duke passing game racks up 300 or more yards. If we can stop them from doing that, that's the biggest chance we have at a win.
-- Favorability ratings
Run offense: 4
Pass offense: 4
Run defense: 3.5
Pass defense: 2.5
Average: 3.5
-- Outlook
That's a lot more pessimistic than Vegas is, since they - for whatever reason - have us favored in this game. It's a home game, that's why, and we're favored only by the three points given to home teams. But we've got two colossal injuries on defense and our starting placekicker is out as well, and we've yet to see that the offense has any quick-strike ability at all. It doesn't, to be honest, which means having to march down the field if we want to score. Nor have we seen much evidence that London can coach his way to a win, and David Cutcliffe can be a cagey bastard. "Duke's defense sucks" is the only reason anyone might have to predict a UVA win, and what evidence is there that UVA can take advantage enough to win the inevitable shootout?
-- Prediction summary
-- Kevin Parks gains 100+ yards.
-- The UVA run offense generates about 200 yards.
-- David Watford averages over six yards a throw. (Whee.)
-- Watford tops 200 yards passing. (Whee, again.)
-- Duke's passing game tops 300 yards.
-- Neither team comes up with a turnover all game long.
Final score: Duke 38, UVA 24
-- Rest of the ACC
Miami 27, North Carolina 23 - Thu. - The Coastal Conference is doing its damndest to clear a red carpet for the Hokies' path to the ACCCG; Miami had to salvage this one in literally the last minute.
Syracuse @ Georgia Tech - 12:30 - Cuse is fresh off what was considered an upset win over NC State, but that "upset" status will be re-evaluated after the season; Cuse isn't great, but the Pack definitely aren't. GT is likely to expose the Orange here.
Maryland @ Wake Forest - 3:30 - Hope you like seeing the Terps get bowl-eligible.
Pittsburgh vs. Old Dominion - 7:00 - With the London recruiting train coming to a crashing halt, you really don't want ODU to be able to say, "Look who beat Pitt."
Florida State @ Clemson - 8:00 - Being called the biggest ACC game since UNC-FSU in 1997 on ESPN's "Judgment Day." Of course the stupid conference scheduling office would have the game in October.
Byes: Boston College, NC State, Virginia Tech
Friday, October 11, 2013
game preview: Maryland
Date/Time: Saturday, October 13; 3:30
TV: ESPNUVA
Record against the Terps: 32-43-2
Last meeting: Md. 27, UVA 20; 10/13/12, Charlottesville
Last weekend: BSU 48, UVA 27; FSU 63, Md 0
Line: Maryland by 7
Injury report:
Virginia:
OUT - OL George Adeosun, PK Ian Frye, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, OT Sadiq Olanrewaju, S Wil Wahee
DOUBTFUL - None
QUESTIONABLE - None
PROBABLE - TE Zach Swanson
Maryland:
OUT - DB Milan Collins, OL JaJuan Dulaney, CB Dexter McDougle, DL Mike Minter, DL Ty Tucker, WR Tyrek Cheeseboro, RB Tyler Cierski, K Adam Greene, DB Jeremiah Johnson, OL Nick Klemm, LB Matt Robinson
DOUBTFUL - QB C.J. Brown
QUESTIONABLE - None
PROBABLE - WR Daniel Adams, OL Silvio Altamirano, LB Cole Farrand, WR Nigel King, TE Dave Stinebaugh, DL Zeke Riser
I'm a little torn, but strongly leaning toward the idea that we should close down relations forever with Maryland once their time in the ACC is done. Depends on the sport, really; lacrosse, definitely. Basketball, probably, and replace them with Georgetown. Football, I suppose, is a little less clear, but then, the schedule's tied up for a good long time anyway. So this'll be our last shot for the foreseeable future at what was a very fun rivalry when Ralph Friedgen would flap his fat gums and we would beat his teams in response.
-- UVA run offense vs. Md. run defense
Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 88 carries, 398 yards, 4.5 ypc, 5 TDs
Daniel Hamm: 23 carries, 141 yards, 6.1 ypc, 2 TDs
UVA offense:
178.20 yards/game, 4.09 yards/attempt
80th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)
Md. defense:
115.40 yards/game, 3.21 yards/attempt
25th of 125 (national), 3rd of 14 (ACC)
It seems like a safe but tentative bet so far that in the season-long who's-after-Parks watch, Khalek Shepherd is slowly but surely emerging as the primary backup. Neither he nor Taquan Mizzell show up on the injury report this week, so we finally have the health we need to see the decision through.
The other name not on the injury report: Conner Davis. Mike London has hinted this means another change in the order of battle for the offensive line; despite what the depth chart says, it appears Davis will take Luke Bowanko's left guard spot and move Bowanko back to center. Bowanko is still a better guard than center, but I guess the real idea is that Davis is a better guard than Ross Burbank or Jackson Matteo are centers. Last week's lineup shuffle looked good against a bad run defense; Maryland presents a tougher challenge.
Mitigating that will be Maryland's loss of disruptive OLB Matt Robinson. Robinson is one of the defense's leading players and a member of one of the best linebacking corps in the league. Inside backers Cole Farrand and L.A. Goree ought to be able to cover up for him to an extent, but Maryland loses something on the edge without Robinson. Marcus Whitfield, on the other side of the Terps' 3-4, is more of a pass rusher. Of course, last time I said there might be a weakness on the edge, attack the edge, Steve Fairchild kept attacking the middle. So we'll see.
The 3-4 is just another challenge for our O-line, too, which hasn't been allowed to see many conventional defenses this year. Maryland's line has been solid, and nose tackle Darius Kilgo is a load, so the O-line is simply going to be tested all day, and the threat will be more versatile than just watching Aaron Donald tear into the backfield all day.
It may be that Davis's return is another small boost to the line. Changing from Wallace and Whitmire to Whitmire and Smith certainly was one, and you have to like getting a starter back. But one good day against Ball State doesn't change my mind about the offense. Even without Matt Robinson, Maryland is well-equipped to slow down and even stop the UVA run game. Then you add in the fact that the read-option is designed against a 4-3 defense, and I definitely don't see strong results in this area of the game.
-- UVA pass offense vs. Md. pass defense
Quarterback:
David Watford: 101/171, 59.1%; 813 yards, 3 TDs, 7 INTs; 4.75 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 19 rec., 119 yards, 1 TD
Darius Jennings: 14 rec., 107 yards, 1 TD
UVA offense:
171.4 yards/game, 4.6 yards/attempt
125th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)
Md. defense:
218.4 yards/game, 6.5 yards/attempt
43rd of 125 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)
Another injury has sapped quite a bit of the effectiveness out of the Maryland pass defense: the loss of Dexter McDougle for the season. The main consequence of that was the loss of most of their big-play capability; McDougle had three picks in as many games. Isaac Goins is a solid cornerback, but McDougle's replacement, freshman William Likely, is 5'7", and, you know, a freshman.
The Maryland pass rush can be nasty. The aforementioned Marcus Whitfield has 5.5 sacks, and his backup, Yannik Cudjoe-Virgil, has three. Maryland's nose tackle position, between Darius Kilgo and Andre Monroe, has combined for 5.5 sacks, and the team total is 18, which ties them for 5th in the country.
So the O-line is in for another test. Given the pass rush the Terps can generate from the middle of the line, having Bowanko at center is a little bit of a relief. The playing-time intention at wide receiver, though, is still a mystery, even with the "ors" taken off the depth chart. I guess there's just a skepticism factor that the starters are suddenly Kyle Dockins, Keeon Johnson, and Miles Gooch. Johnson I believe given the role he played against Ball State, and that lineup of guys could provide an advantage given the lack of size Maryland has at corner. Finding it hard to believe they're fully relegating guys like Tim Smith and Darius Jennings to the bench, though.
I do think our receivers provide an advantage over the Maryland defensive backfield, where the Terps are middling-decent but did present no threat whatsoever to the FSU passing game. (By contrast, FSU's run game was successful but not spectacularly so.) However, Watford's still learning, and slowly. I'm gonna have to see something before I give the whole unit the benefit of the doubt. At some point Watford's gonna have a great game and prove me wrong, but I don't plan on saying "this weekend is it" all year til I get it right.
-- Md. run offense vs. UVA run defense
Top backs:
Brandon Ross: 68 carries, 331 yards, 4.8 ypc, 2 TDs
Albert Reid: 29 carries, 120 yards, 4.1 ypc, 1 TD
Md. offense:
188.0 yards/game, 4.65 yards/attempt
53rd of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)
UVA defense:
149.2 yards/game, 3.87 yards/attempt
50th of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)
Like the offense in reverse, I'm gonna have to see more than one bad game out of the defense (Oregon doesn't count) before I decide it sucks. I don't think that'll be in this phase of the game, at least. The likely loss of C.J. Brown makes the Maryland run attack fairly one-dimensional. Decent opponents have shut down Brandon Ross's backup, Albert Reid, which by subtraction leaves Ross as the only real rushing threat. (Other backup Jacquille Veii, with almost as many carries as Reid, has been a garbage-timer so far.)
Ross can move the ball, but is no threat to break one open, and is a little bit stat-padded by a big game against ODU. Florida International shut him down and FSU made him disappear entirely; he's just not a game-breaker, and Maryland's patchily young offensive line is still learning its way around consistent run-blocking.
So this is a very important phase of the game for UVA. The Maryland pass offense can be dangerous, and UVA simply must force them to have to rely solely on it to move the ball. If the run game can be stifled with just the regular up-front personnel, maybe even with six in the box, it'll make this game so much easier. Long day otherwise.
-- Md. pass offense vs. UVA pass defense
Quarterback:
C.J. Brown: 72/113, 63.7%; 1,125 yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT; 9.96 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Deon Long: 24 rec., 348 yards, 1 TD
Stefon Diggs: 20 rec., 424 yards, 3 TDs
Md. offense:
257.6 yards/game, 9.3 yards/attempt
10th of 125 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)
UVA defense:
191.4 yards/game, 5.6 yards/attempt
10th of 125 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)
It's great to have such nice numbers on our side, even with such nice ones on the Maryland side too, but here's where the injury bug takes a chunk out of our defense, with Demetrious Nicholson out for the game. This is not the time for that, as UVA goes up against a dynamic duo at receiver for the third time in a row, and probably the best of the three in Stefon Diggs and Deon Long.
Diggs is also dealing with a malady of his own, which could slow him down and even up the matchup; Randy Edsall has been referring to him as not 100% and he hasn't been taking return duties. He's been limited the past two weeks to two catches each. Long has stepped forward somewhat. Still, you have to game plan for him. You're not going to worry about Levern Jacobs or Malcolm Culmer. You might watch Nigel King, who stands 6'3" and for that reason alone can be a tough cover, but Diggs and Long are what make the Maryland offense move.
The above assumes C.J. Brown can play, but he's listed as doubtful - so he probably won't. We're in much better shape if he doesn't. Backup Caleb Rowe is not incapable but not close to the player Brown is, either. The combination of losing Brown and having Diggs limited could be a major crippling factor for the Maryland offense, and without Nicholson we'll take all the help we can get.
-- Favorability ratings:
Run offense: 3
Pass offense: 3.5
Run defense: 7.5
Pass defense: 3 if Brown plays and Diggs is playable, and 6.5 otherwise
Average: 4.25 or 5.125
-- Outlook
You can see the effect on the game of Brown's injury. Take him out of there and I can see UVA having the slimmest of advantages. Put him in and the game swings Maryland's way. Maryland's run game is much more dangerous with Brown (Rowe is not a runner) and Brown is easily the better passer too. UVA must, must must must shut down the run game to the greatest extent possible, and do so nice and early, so that they'll be able to focus on stopping the pass. If they can do that, that's their chance. Moving the ball will be tough and opportunities to do so limited, so there'll be plenty of pressure on the defense to keep the game within striking distance.
-- Prediction summary
-- Watford throws neither a pick nor a touchdown.
-- Neither run game musters more than three yards per attempt.
-- Keeon Johnson leads UVA wide receivers in receptions.
-- Stefon Diggs has had two catches each of the past two games; he has more here.
Final score: Md. 17, UVA 13
-- Rest of the ACC
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech - 12:00 - Tech will be remembering the embarrassing beatdown they received from the Panthers last year.
Duke vs. Navy - 12:30 - Duke bowl eligibility hopes probably demand this win.
Syracuse @ NC State - 3:30 - As do the bowl hopes of both these teams, slim as they are.
Boston College @ Clemson - 3:30 - Clemson's tuneup before the big game next week.
Georgia Tech @ Brigham Young - 7:00 - Should be a useful game in learning how we stand.
Byes: Miami, Florida State, Wake Forest, UNC
Thursday, September 26, 2013
game preview: Pittsburgh
Date/Time: Saturday, September 28; 12:30
TV: RSN, ESPN3
Record against the Panthers: 2-3
Last meeting: UVA 44, Pitt 14; 9/29/07, Charlottesville
Last weekend: UVA 49, VMI 0; Pitt 58, Duke 55
Line: Pitt by 5
Injury report:
Virginia
OUT - G George Adeosun, G Conner Davis, G Jack McDonald, TE Mario Nixon, TE Zach Swanson, SS Wilfred Wahee
DOUBTFUL - None
QUESTIONABLE - RB Taquan Mizzell
PROBABLE - WR Miles Gooch, RB Khalek Shepherd
Pittsburgh
OUT - DB Cullen Christian, DE Devin Cook, OL Gabe Roberts
DOUBTFUL - DE Bryan Murphy
QUESTIONABLE - LB Shane Gordon
PROBABLE - None
Time to get the ACC schedule underway. It's Pitt's first season in the conference, but the opponent isn't totally unfamiliar; these teams have met three times in the past decade or so. Matt Schaub led the Hoos to a win in what remains the only UVA bowl game I've seen in person, and UVA and Pitt played a home-and-home a few years later in which the teams traded crowd-pleasing blowouts. This promises to be an interesting series in years to come, since both teams would love to establish a strong presence on each others' home recruiting turf. For this season, though, it's two teams that could make a bowl game but face an uphill battle to do so - the winner will be halfway to their goal.
-- UVA run offense vs. Pitt run defense
Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 56 carries, 260 yards, 4.6 ypc, 3 TD
Daniel Hamm: 21 carries, 136 yards, 6.5 ypc, 2 TD
UVA offense:
196.67 yards/game, 4.10 yards/attempt
82nd of 125 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)
Pitt defense:
194 yards/game, 4.77 yards/attempt
94th of 125 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)
One thing I totally failed to notice from last week's game is that Cody Wallace made the start at RG in place of Conner Davis, who is - we learn this week - injured. Other than explaining why Eric Tetlow got in the game, it might also be among the reasons why the line struggled early to push VMI off the line.
UVA can afford no such problems in the interior this week, and Wallace is going to have to play the game of his life. With the twin terrors that Pitt has at defensive tackle - Aaron Donald already has seven TFL in just three games, and Tyrone Ezell is a beast of a nose tackle - it's likely UVA will struggle in the middle all day long.
Despite that, Pitt has struggled to defend the run. Even against New Mexico they had problems; UNM's top two running backs, Crusoe Gongbay and Cole Gautsch, combined for 20 carries and 145 yards. A pretty good day on the ground for a team that lost by three touchdowns. Duke's Brandon Connette and Josh Snead carried 29 times for 160 yards. Pitt has simply been unsuccessful stopping the run this year.
It won't help if they don't have their defensive ends. Two of their better ones - Bryan Murphy and Devin Cook - look as though they'll miss the game, and linebacker Shane Gordon, leading his unit in tackles, is also questionable (and judging from posts on the Pitt boards, probably less than questionable). It's obvious that the place to attack the Pitt defense will be on the edges. Follow Morgan Moses; he ought to be able to easily handle the Pitt defensive ends. If Zach Swanson wasn't missing the game I'd feel even more confident about the edges; Swanson is probably the best blocking tight end we have right now.
The question is going to be: who carries the ball? Parks, of course, will be asked to carry the load, but will the coaches turn back to Hamm? I'd like to see what happens - Hamm's very aggressive style could pay off in a matchup like this. If Pitt had really good, heady linebackers it'd be different, because there's no deception in his game and a guy like Steve Greer would find it easy to diagnose. But linebacking is the weak point in the Pitt defense, and Hamm's desire to get upfield quickly on a run to the edges would help neutralize the Pitt defensive tackles, giving them less time to disengage and chase him down. Tippytoe runs while the back waits for a hole he likes will get our guys run down from behind. Not that Shepherd is especially prone to that - but more so than Hamm, yes.
I think if the right game is called, UVA will succeed in the run game. They'll have a really hard time punching it up the gut, but should find room on the edges. The depth chart has Hamm fourth, but I do think the coaches plan to use him again. And I think he'll outgain Shepherd. Hopefully that's not a case of me predicting what I want to happen, because I'd love to see Hamm be the pleasant surprise of the season, not just the VMI game.
-- UVA pass offense vs. Pitt pass defense
Quarterback:
David Watford: 65/98, 66.3%; 481 yards, 3 TDs, 6 INTs; 4.91 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 14 rec., 81 yards, 1 TD
Darius Jennings: 12 rec., 77 yards, 1 TD
UVA offense:
170.3 yards/game, 4.7 yards/attempt
123rd of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)
Pitt defense:
251 yards/game, 9.5 yards/attempt
119th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)
Pillow fight! The ACC's worst pass offense goes against its worst pass defense. Or so it looks. Actually I think the Panthers' pass defense will look better as the season goes on; it so happens that Duke and Florida State have passing games that will test any defense, and Pitt does have the ability to shut down lousy passing offenses, as they did to New Mexico.
A game against VMI doesn't tell you much, but it does give you this: there are certain things that if you don't see them against VMI, you never will. An explosive passing offense is one of them. David Watford simply needs experience before the passing game can consistently diversify its efforts. Til then, this element of the game will be one where we just hope for good enough.
As for the opponent, the main concerns are Pitt's two defensive stars, Aaron Donald and Jason Hendricks. Donald has four sacks this season and is basically Pitt's only pass rush - he'll be double- and maybe triple-teamed all day, and is the guy who our running backs (Parks, mainly, as the only experienced one) will need to keep their eye on in blocking. Hendricks is a safety and a good one.
Otherwise, Pitt isn't too scary. I don't think Watford will face much of a rush except up the middle, and Jameis Winston of FSU was able to have some scrambling success so hopefully Watford can do the same. Pitt's corners got torched by Duke's receivers so ours should be able to find some room too.. Watford should be able to further improve his yards-per-attempt, but don't expect anything spectacular. Because of the pressure up the middle but the likely lack thereof on the edges, I also think he'll find a way to scramble and maybe contribute three yards a carry to the run game. If Fairchild calls some rollouts and bootlegs (which he hasn't yet, but hey) that could play right toward our possible strengths.
-- Pitt run offense vs. UVA run defense
Top backs:
James Conner: 47 carries, 326 yards, 6.9 ypc, 3 TDs
Isaac Bennett: 35 carries, 174 yards, 5.0 ypc, 2 TDs
Pitt offense:
184.33 yards/game, 5.17 yards/attempt
36th of 125 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)
UVA defense:
192.67 yards/game, 4.90 yards/attempt
103rd of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)
Still too early in the season for you to let these numbers cause you any panic. New Mexico is awful, for one, and Duke sucks on defense too; Oregon is still messing up our own stats. Nevertheless, Pitt's running game has shown some signs of life that folks didn't expect when Rushel Shell left the team.
Freshman RB James Conner has been the star for the Panthers, having big games against both UNM and Duke but being largely bottled up by FSU. Isaac Bennett, other than a pretty good UNM game, doesn't really look like a tremendously improved back over last year. Conner is the guy the Panthers are going to lean on; he's a big, powerful back at 6'2", 230 and will be a load to bring down.
The Pitt O-line took a hit in losing center Gabe Roberts for the game, though its a depth thing rather than losing a starter, as Artie Rowell had beaten him out for the starting job. Pitt's interior line is respectable but not overpowering; it's a fairly even matchup in the trenches.
That the Hoos have placed Max Valles atop the depth chart at linebacker, though, is a vote of confidence in the front seven, or really, front six in the run game since Valles is there to rush the passer. Daquan Romero and Henry Coley have done nice work, and I think you have to be impressed by the tackle totals along the defensive line (although admittedly somewhat inflated by VMI's horrible O-line.) I think UVA will likely be able to make Bennett a non-factor, and Conner should find much less running room than he's been used to the past two games.
-- Pitt pass offense vs. UVA pass defense
Quarterback:
Tom Savage: 51/78, 65.4%; 861 yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs; 11.04 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Devin Street: 17 rec., 387 yards, 2 TDs
Tyler Boyd: 16 rec., 314 yards, 4 TDs
Pitt offense:
289.7 yards/game, 11.0 yards/attempt
7th of 125 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)
UVA defense:
140.0 yards/game, 4.2 yards/attempt
2nd of 125 (national), 1st of 14 (ACC)
The contrast between this and the passing matchup on the other side of the field is almost comical. Pitt's Tom Savage absolutely bombed Duke, racking up 424 passing yards and six TDs in just that one game. I said before the season Pitt could be dangerous if they found a complement to Devin Street, and freshman Tyler Boyd is it. Both of them have big-play ability and will be one of the season's biggest tests for our secondary, high praise considering we have to face Stefon Diggs and Sammy Watkins later on.
That said, Savage has a few obstacles of his own. UVA has a whopping 23 pass breakups, a number that is not terribly inflated by the VMI game. The Hoos have allowed 37 completions, so an enemy pass is almost as likely to be ruthlessly swatted to the ground as to be completed. Brent Urban leads the team - and defensive linemen nationwide - with five breakups, and Demetrious Nicholson and Maurice Canady each have four.
The pass rush is still a question mark, though; most of our sacks came against VMI, so Eli Harold and the rest of the pass-rushing gang still has something to prove. Jon Tenuta will use Max Valles as a pass-rusher to try and boost the pressure on Savage, who is the pocket-statue sort of quarterback, and an NFL-friendly 6'5", which could help to nullify the D-line's pass-swatting talents.
The entire game, in the end, may swing on how well the defense is able to slow down Street and Boyd. I would say that if neither reaches 100 yards receiving, UVA has won the game. UVA doesn't need to sack Savage for the pressure to work; Pitt is not a quick-hit offense so if they can simply keep Savage uncomfortable, they can disrupt the show.
-- Favorability ratings
UVA run offense: 4.5
UVA pass offense: 4
UVA run defense: 6
UVA pass defense: 5.5
Average: 5
-- Outlook
Simply put, this is one of the most intriguing matchups of the year. Both teams have some pretty deep flaws. We have a questionable offensive line going up against a wrecking ball of a defensive tackle and a quarterback whose decision-making has been questionable. Pitt's defensive end lineup is a nuclear disaster, and their defense overall is a problem. Both teams have their strengths: Pitt's DTs and pass offense, our pass defense. I can't see Pitt winning this game if UVA is able to bottle up the Pitt receiving tandem, and UVA is dead in the water if they can't run the ball and loosen up Pitt's already-shaky pass defense. This game just comes down to who can cover up their flaws the best.
-- Predictions
-- Daniel Hamm outgains Khalek Shepherd.
-- Watford manages about six yards per pass.
-- Watford also contributes at least 30 yards on the ground.
-- Aaron Donald and Eli Harold are the only players on either team to register a sack.
-- UVA is able to keep Pitt's running game in check, with no more than four yards a carry.
-- If both Tyler Boyd and Devin Street have fewer than 100 receiving yards apiece, UVA wins.
Final score: UVA 27, Pitt 23
Rest of the ACC:
Virginia Tech 17, Georgia Tech 10 - Thu. - Despite crushing adversity brought on by unconscionable and totally indefensible scheduling screwjobs, the Hokies overcame the terrible obstacles and stood tall in victory with a heroic, stirring, against-all-odds victory.
Miami @ South Florida - 12:00 - USF's giant-killing days are dead, so the Canes won't have much trouble here. Back to the big three in Florida.
North Carolina vs. East Carolina - 12:30 - Sadly, the Heels don't play Western Carolina to complete the trifecta.
Duke vs. Troy - 3:00 - Really stupid fun fact: There are lots of teams whose common name is only four letters long (Utah, Iowa, Navy, etc.) but these are two of the only three whose names are just one syllable. Guess the other one and win no prize at all.
Florida State @ Boston College - 3:30 - Truthfully, the schedule-makers were worse to BC than to VT this week, making them play FSU the week after playing USC.
NC State vs. Central Michigan - 3:30 - MAC snack.
Wake Forest @ Clemson - 3:30 - Wake cake.
Bye - Maryland
(Answer: Rice.)
Sunday, September 22, 2013
hamm it up
Everybody loves a good Cinderella story. And I love watching dominant running backs. That makes Daniel Hamm the obvious topic du jour.
If you'd ever heard of Hamm, you are a teammate, a relation, or lying. His existence flew under every radar that's tuned on Charlottesville. He doesn't have an entry in most recruiting databases and he never received any scholarship offers to speak of, not in football. He showed up on the field and people probably tried to remember if Khalek Shepherd wore #22 or some other number, until his name was announced. Now his name is on all the headlines.
You have to admit, that's pretty cool. It might be for just this one week, and might've only been VMI, but the entry in the record book is just as permanent as any other. And it made something interesting out of an uninteresting game.
Also, it leaves some questions, or at least, one big one. Namely, does this mean we have a new running back? Well, the quality of competition looms large over everything positive we can say about Hamm's future. Except for the first couple drives, VMI had no chance against the blocking, and Hamm always had a hole to run through. When he broke a tackle, it always came with the question as to whether a player on a better team would've brought him down; when he ran past someone, you always wondered if another team's players would've been faster. There's no way UVA's running game will generate 357 yards again this year.
Even so, a couple things look to be really in Hamm's favor here. First and probably foremost, it's got to be really bad news for Kye Morgan, hasn't it? That Khalek Shepherd and Taquan Mizzell are both hurt, and the next guy out is a true freshman walk-on, instead of Morgan who redshirted last season - that's a surprise. Morgan's got more than three-and-a-half seasons left in his career, so it's not like you just write him off, but what didn't he show last year?
As for Hamm himself, some of those runs - particularly, I thought, his second TD run - were nice runs regardless of opponent. He looked strong in his running. Some of the holes he hit weren't very big, and the truth is, a lot of guys might have considered them too small and stepped around them, looking for a home run elsewhere. And against most teams, that's how you run for two yards. Hamm was content to take the five-to-seven and come back and do it again. There's only one Barry Sanders, so give me the north-south, workhorse stuff all day long. I loved watching a guy who would - oh, fuck it, Hammer the defense - carry after carry.
Whether Hamm has or will unseat Shepherd or Mizzell this season, nobody can say except those who aren't telling. Whether that performance will translate to success against actual opponents, nobody can say at all. But I'm looking forward to finding out.
Other stuff in short:
-- That was the good story of the offense. The bad story: the passing game. The numbers are good but the eye test was definitely not. So many of those yards were YAC, and not like with Mike Rocco where the YAC was often the result of a very well-timed ball. Watford threw a swing pass behind Kevin Parks and Parks was still able to pick up a ton of yardage; no ACC team will let that happen.
Watford's interceptions were the result of locking in on a receiver to absurd extremes. Especially the first. Some blame goes to Miles Gooch for running his route and then stopping, but he was so thoroughly covered that Watford had no business throwing that thing at all. Watford had some nice throws, too - the one to Tim Smith for a touchdown was gorgeous. Both his touchdown throws, actually, were excellent. Even then, he was watching nobody but Smith all the way. Until he learns to go through his second read he's not going to be a productive QB.
It would help if his receivers gave him a little assistance. Gooch has been mentioned; Dominique Terrell was also guilty at least once. Watford was scrambling and Terrell ran to a point on the field and simply stopped moving. I can't believe this only happened the two times I noticed it. Marques Hagans has got to impress on these guys that the route doesn't stop where the little arrow ends up. Of all former quarterbacks - a guy who kept a ton of plays alive with his feet - he ought to know this best.
-- I love the defense, though. When the announcers talked about how VMI had us "on the ropes" in the first quarter, well, OK, the offense didn't produce, but the VMI offense gained 15 yards the whole quarter. I mean, come on. The defense just crushed the fightin' Vimmies. No contest. If the offense had played as good a game as the defense it would've been 105-0. I'm not going back through the annals to find out the last time UVA allowed so few yards (79) but the notes tell us that they allowed 84 to Akron in 2004. So it goes back further than that. I would go so far as to say that even with as bad as VMI is, the defense outperformed expectations.
Time for a prediction review:
-- Mizzell and Shepherd combine for at least five more carries than Parks. The point here was that Parks was going to get a nice light day, maybe not show up in the second half. I could null it out since nobody knew about their injuries, but I'm giving it to myself, actually, because Hamm by himself had four more carries and then the fourth quarter was turned over to the backups.
-- Watford averages 10 yards per attempt, enough to double his seasonal passing yards if allowed to throw 28 times. He was at 8.2, which isn't enough for this.
-- At least five new redshirts are burned, two on the O-line. The grand total is seven: Hamm is one, along with LaChaston Smith, Eric Tetlow, Sadiq Olanrewaju, Eric Smith, Max Valles, and Donte Wilkins. Most are defensible; LaChaston Smith is the one I have to question. That hurdle was cool, but couldn't Morgan have just gotten those carries? Five deep is plenty. It's doubly screwy because of the very strong possibility that Smith might move to a whole new position eventually.
The rest are fine. I actually saw someone complaining that Hamm's redshirt had been burned. Lordy. You wouldn't have known he was even remotely good if you'd gotten your way. Besides, Hamm is a walk-on; it's exceedingly wrong to essentially tell a walk-on "for the good of the team we're going to ask you to pay your very expensive way for a fifth year." The offensive linemen almost had to play; the first-stringers can't take every snap of the season. And we'll almost certainly see more of Wilkins, too.
-- Defensive tackles account for at least two sacks. No, but they still dominated.
-- So does Eli Harold. No, but Trent Corney did, probably against VMI's second-string tackle, although I didn't look to see.
-- Urban bats down at least two passes. There was actually a lot of very good pressure on Eric Kordenbrock, but VMI did a nice job of keeping his release time short.
I only get two of six, which adds up to 6-for-16 on the year. Full game prediction, with a win against the spread and a gimme on the straight-up, makes me 2-1 and 2-1 ATS.
We'll cover the rest of the ACC as part of tomorrow's weekend review.
If you'd ever heard of Hamm, you are a teammate, a relation, or lying. His existence flew under every radar that's tuned on Charlottesville. He doesn't have an entry in most recruiting databases and he never received any scholarship offers to speak of, not in football. He showed up on the field and people probably tried to remember if Khalek Shepherd wore #22 or some other number, until his name was announced. Now his name is on all the headlines.
You have to admit, that's pretty cool. It might be for just this one week, and might've only been VMI, but the entry in the record book is just as permanent as any other. And it made something interesting out of an uninteresting game.
Also, it leaves some questions, or at least, one big one. Namely, does this mean we have a new running back? Well, the quality of competition looms large over everything positive we can say about Hamm's future. Except for the first couple drives, VMI had no chance against the blocking, and Hamm always had a hole to run through. When he broke a tackle, it always came with the question as to whether a player on a better team would've brought him down; when he ran past someone, you always wondered if another team's players would've been faster. There's no way UVA's running game will generate 357 yards again this year.
Even so, a couple things look to be really in Hamm's favor here. First and probably foremost, it's got to be really bad news for Kye Morgan, hasn't it? That Khalek Shepherd and Taquan Mizzell are both hurt, and the next guy out is a true freshman walk-on, instead of Morgan who redshirted last season - that's a surprise. Morgan's got more than three-and-a-half seasons left in his career, so it's not like you just write him off, but what didn't he show last year?
As for Hamm himself, some of those runs - particularly, I thought, his second TD run - were nice runs regardless of opponent. He looked strong in his running. Some of the holes he hit weren't very big, and the truth is, a lot of guys might have considered them too small and stepped around them, looking for a home run elsewhere. And against most teams, that's how you run for two yards. Hamm was content to take the five-to-seven and come back and do it again. There's only one Barry Sanders, so give me the north-south, workhorse stuff all day long. I loved watching a guy who would - oh, fuck it, Hammer the defense - carry after carry.
Whether Hamm has or will unseat Shepherd or Mizzell this season, nobody can say except those who aren't telling. Whether that performance will translate to success against actual opponents, nobody can say at all. But I'm looking forward to finding out.
Other stuff in short:
-- That was the good story of the offense. The bad story: the passing game. The numbers are good but the eye test was definitely not. So many of those yards were YAC, and not like with Mike Rocco where the YAC was often the result of a very well-timed ball. Watford threw a swing pass behind Kevin Parks and Parks was still able to pick up a ton of yardage; no ACC team will let that happen.
Watford's interceptions were the result of locking in on a receiver to absurd extremes. Especially the first. Some blame goes to Miles Gooch for running his route and then stopping, but he was so thoroughly covered that Watford had no business throwing that thing at all. Watford had some nice throws, too - the one to Tim Smith for a touchdown was gorgeous. Both his touchdown throws, actually, were excellent. Even then, he was watching nobody but Smith all the way. Until he learns to go through his second read he's not going to be a productive QB.
It would help if his receivers gave him a little assistance. Gooch has been mentioned; Dominique Terrell was also guilty at least once. Watford was scrambling and Terrell ran to a point on the field and simply stopped moving. I can't believe this only happened the two times I noticed it. Marques Hagans has got to impress on these guys that the route doesn't stop where the little arrow ends up. Of all former quarterbacks - a guy who kept a ton of plays alive with his feet - he ought to know this best.
-- I love the defense, though. When the announcers talked about how VMI had us "on the ropes" in the first quarter, well, OK, the offense didn't produce, but the VMI offense gained 15 yards the whole quarter. I mean, come on. The defense just crushed the fightin' Vimmies. No contest. If the offense had played as good a game as the defense it would've been 105-0. I'm not going back through the annals to find out the last time UVA allowed so few yards (79) but the notes tell us that they allowed 84 to Akron in 2004. So it goes back further than that. I would go so far as to say that even with as bad as VMI is, the defense outperformed expectations.
Time for a prediction review:
-- Mizzell and Shepherd combine for at least five more carries than Parks. The point here was that Parks was going to get a nice light day, maybe not show up in the second half. I could null it out since nobody knew about their injuries, but I'm giving it to myself, actually, because Hamm by himself had four more carries and then the fourth quarter was turned over to the backups.
-- Watford averages 10 yards per attempt, enough to double his seasonal passing yards if allowed to throw 28 times. He was at 8.2, which isn't enough for this.
-- At least five new redshirts are burned, two on the O-line. The grand total is seven: Hamm is one, along with LaChaston Smith, Eric Tetlow, Sadiq Olanrewaju, Eric Smith, Max Valles, and Donte Wilkins. Most are defensible; LaChaston Smith is the one I have to question. That hurdle was cool, but couldn't Morgan have just gotten those carries? Five deep is plenty. It's doubly screwy because of the very strong possibility that Smith might move to a whole new position eventually.
The rest are fine. I actually saw someone complaining that Hamm's redshirt had been burned. Lordy. You wouldn't have known he was even remotely good if you'd gotten your way. Besides, Hamm is a walk-on; it's exceedingly wrong to essentially tell a walk-on "for the good of the team we're going to ask you to pay your very expensive way for a fifth year." The offensive linemen almost had to play; the first-stringers can't take every snap of the season. And we'll almost certainly see more of Wilkins, too.
-- Defensive tackles account for at least two sacks. No, but they still dominated.
-- So does Eli Harold. No, but Trent Corney did, probably against VMI's second-string tackle, although I didn't look to see.
-- Urban bats down at least two passes. There was actually a lot of very good pressure on Eric Kordenbrock, but VMI did a nice job of keeping his release time short.
I only get two of six, which adds up to 6-for-16 on the year. Full game prediction, with a win against the spread and a gimme on the straight-up, makes me 2-1 and 2-1 ATS.
We'll cover the rest of the ACC as part of tomorrow's weekend review.
Friday, September 20, 2013
game preview: VMI
Date/Time: Saturday, September 21; 3:30
TV: ESPN3
Record against the Keydets: 56-23-3
Last meeting: UVA 48, VMI 7; 9/25/10, Charlottesville
Last weekend: UVA bye; North Greenville 37, VMI 24
Line: UVA by 44
Injury report: N/A
Chances are, everything you need to know about VMI, you learned from the box score of the North Greenville game. VMI is typically a lousy team for obvious recruiting-obstacles reasons, but even so they've generally been able to beat the D-II opponents their schedulers put in front of them. Losing to one - getting creamed by one, actually - is the sort of inauspicious omen that says "this team might not win again all year." But the games are played for a reason, and UVA is not in any position to take any opponent lightly, even a frosty cupcake like VMI.
-- UVA run offense vs. VMI run defense
Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 39 carries, 125 yards, 3.2 ypc, 1 TD
Taquan Mizzell: 13 carries, 30 yards, 2.3 ypc, 0 TDs
UVA offense:
116.5 yards/game, 2.88 yards/attempt
113th of 125 (national); 13th of 14 (ACC)
VMI defense:
206.3 yards/game, 5.16 yards/attempt
85th of 114 (national); 5th of 6 (Big South)
I have to admit, I'm a little surprised at how much the run game thus far has leaned on Kevin Parks. I mean, Parks is a solid back, if he's ever given an inch of running room, which he has not, but I did think more work would've been handed to Khalek Shepherd and Taquan Mizzell by now. But by their powers combined they have barely half the carries Parks does.
Not that they've shown they deserve a ton of work. Mizzell hasn't gotten much room to maneuver either, and has done nothing spectacular in his nine carries. Shepherd has one big run for 45 yards and has otherwise been equally bottled up. Parks's 3.2 yards a carry - which is an awfully disappointing number - lead the team, minus the big Shepherd run.
VMI is another 3-4 team, but one with a horribly undersized defensive front. Nose tackle Joe Nelson - a redshirt freshman - is 265 pounds. The ends are smaller. Regardless of what stunts and whatever else the VMI defense tries to run, the matchup against Morgan Moses will be patently unfair, and if UVA can't completely own the line of scrimmage then we are going to have issues all year long.
I would expect some redshirts to be burned along the O-line. Yes, people hate seeing that, but if they're in the two-deep they gotta play, and the depth we have doesn't allow us the luxury of sitting the freshmen out. Moses can't play every snap all season long. In fact, those who stick around for the fourth quarter will get a UVA fan's first glimpse at four brand-new linemen: Olanrewaju, Smith, Matteo, and Mooney.
You have to assume that Parks won't be asked to be a workhorse, either. My guess is that Shepherd and Mizzell will combine to easily surpass Parks's total carries, and Kye Morgan probably gets some burn, too. This should be a successful day on the ground. If it's not, you might be better off spending the season in a drunken haze.
-- UVA pass offense vs. VMI pass defense
Quarterback:
David Watford: 47/73, 64.4%; 275 yards, 1 TD, 4 INTs; 3.77 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 11 rec., 62 yards, 0 TDs
Darius Jennings: 10 rec., 60 yards, 1 TD
UVA offense:
144.0 yards/game, 3.6 yards/attempt
125th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)
VMI defense:
304.0 yards/game, 7.7 yards/attempt
105th of 114 (national), 6th of 6 (Big South)
Yes, those are some truly shit numbers we've put up there. I think the coaches realize it, too; it is decidedly not an effective pass offense when your QB hits on almost two-thirds of his passes and has such a truly poor per-attempt average. They've talked about opening it up some this week.
On the flip side, though, those VMI numbers are even worse. They don't look that bad, but remember: not just one, but two of their games are against D-II competition (and they needed a last-minute goal-line stand to beat one of those teams), and the only reason the numbers aren't worse is because North Greenville eased off the gas. At cornerback, VMI starts a redshirt freshman (the entire depth chart abounds with freshmen) and a 5'9" junior. Watford will double his passing yards for the season if the coaches let him throw enough. 25 passes would about do it.
-- VMI run offense vs. UVA run defense
Top backs:
Derrick Ziglar: 34 carries, 191 yards, 5.6 ypc, 1 TD
Deon Watts: 20 carries, 47 yards, 2.3 ypc, 0 TD
VMI offense:
68.3 yards/game, 2.9 yards/attempt
108th of 114 (national), 6th of 6 (Big South)
UVA defense:
268.5 yards/game, 5.77 yards/attempt
114th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)
These numbers are not quite fair because Oregon. This game should help fix them. VMI has actually had some success on the ground, mainly when they hand off to Derrick Ziglar. Deon Watts appears to have been replaced on the depth chart due to lack of production. VMI's horrible numbers actually stem from their pitiful pass protection.
That said, there is no depth on the VMI O-line. They do have a pair of massive, 325-pound tackles, but the backup right tackle is 6'2, 260. So is Will Lucas, the starting center. Just from that matchup alone, Brent Urban and the rest of the gang at DT should have a field day. Ziglar has some talent - he's a bowling-ball style back who measures in at 5'9", 230 - but as eminent a rush defense as Richmond held him to 26 yards. Ziglar's build is rare in D-II, but the Hoos should be able to contain him without much trouble.
-- VMI pass offense vs. UVA pass defense
Quarterback:
Eric Kordenbrock: 68/109, 62.4%; 818 yards, 6 TDs, 3 INTs; 7.5 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Derrick Ziglar: 13 rec., 164 yards, 1 TD
James Rogers: 9 rec., 105 yards, 1 TD
VMI offense:
272.7 yards/game, 7.5 yards/attempt
25th of 114 (national), 1st of 6 (Big South)
UVA defense:
191.0 yards/game, 5.5 yards/attempt
24th of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)
Largely out of necessity, VMI has thrown the ball a ton this season, especially against North Greenville; Eric Kordenbrock had 47 throws in that game. Kordenbrock isn't a bad quarterback as I-AA signal-callers go, but he's also a big, tall statue (6'4", 220) with zilch running ability, which contributes to the poor pass protection he's been getting.
As mentioned, VMI's tackles are huge, so in the pass-rush department, I'd expect Jake Snyder to have a quiet day; Eli Harold off the edge could be interesting, though. If those big guys can handle his speed, maybe Kordenbrock won't get killed on the blind side. If not, it'll be an all-day kinda thing for Harold. Urban is also going to have some fun going up against VMI's undersized interior; it's likely he'll have to be double teamed because putting his height against VMI's lack of it will result in plenty of swatted passes. Lucky for VMI their QB is tall, but their passing game is also oriented largely to the middle of the field. The leading receivers are RB Ziglar and slot receiver James Rogers, and tight end Mario Thompson is heavily involved, too.
The one matchup issue UVA might have is 6'5" outside receiver Sam Patterson. But if he were fast, one, he'd average a lot more than 10.8 yards a catch, way at the bottom of that list for VMI, and two, he'd be playing I-A football.
Our secondary is going to have an athleticism advantage because every unit should have an athleticism advantage, but I'd say it's that pass rush that should make life miserable for VMI. The DTs could well have a turkey shoot out there, and Harold has the potential to be a major X factor.
-- Favorability ratings
I had some trouble with these, because, look, things like our pass offense have really sucked so far. But VMI is so .... bad. This is still a new thing, so, still in need of calibration if you will, but let's try:
UVA run offense: 10
UVA pass offense: 9.5
UVA run defense: 10
UVA pass defense: 10
Average: 9.86
-- Outlook
It's hard to write one of these things without sounding arrogantly dismissive. But VMI did lose to a D-II team. The difference between D-II (36 scholarships) and I-AA (63) is much greater than that between I-AA and I-A (85). And this wasn't just one bad game. VMI struggled to beat Glenville State - a bad D-II team! - and was totally uncompetitive against Richmond. They could neither move the ball nor stop Richmond, on a crappy rainy day, against the quarterback that came in third in the same QB competition where David Watford came in second in 2011 (as a true freshman.) This is a worse VMI team than the one that lost 48-7 to a bad UVA team in 2010. There's no reason at all this should be competitive.
-- Prediction summary:
-- Mizzell and Shepherd combine for at least five more carries than Parks.
-- Watford averages 10 yards per attempt, enough to double his seasonal passing yards if allowed to throw 28 times.
-- At least five new redshirts are burned, two on the O-line.
-- Defensive tackles account for at least two sacks.
-- So does Eli Harold.
-- Urban bats down at least two passes.
Final score: UVA 59, VMI 0
-- Rest of the ACC:
Clemson 26, NC State 14 - Thu. - Probably closer than it should've been, which could be a storm cloud for Clemson, but their defense was excellent.
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech - 12:00 - A big Coastal matchup that would take place later in the season if the ACC schedulers were smart. I mean, at least in October.
Virginia Tech vs. Marshall - 12:00 - Tech's quest continues to find a defense they can move the ball against.
Wake Forest @ Army - 12:00 - Not remotely a guaranteed ACC win.
Pittsburgh @ Duke - 12:30 - Could already be a Bowl Eligibility Bowl.
Syracuse vs. Tulane - 12:30 - Second part of the epic ACC-CUSA matchups this week.
Maryland vs. West Virginia - 3:30 - A big chance to learn something about Maryland.
Florida State vs. Bethune-Cookman - 6:00 - Wildcats to the slaughter.
Miami vs. Savannah State - 7:00 - Likewise.
Monday, September 9, 2013
weekend review
I've said in the past that writing about losses is much harder than writing about wins, and now that we've just seen the single largest football defeat of the FOV era (and that's saying something) I find the trend continuing. There's a certain je ne sais quois about a seven-score ass-whoopin' that takes all the words out of my mouth. "Well that sucked" just doesn't have the kick to it I'd like.
In fact, I've decided the most disappointing part about the game was not anything that actually happened (playcalling, interceptions, big plays given up, etc. etc. - the problem is that there are just too many to pick one) but that they all happened with UVA wearing its classiest uniforms. I'm glad and all that they picked a big game to wear the "traditional"** look but now they probably never will again, at least not this season.
I have to give Oregon this, too: Often, when I'm watching a blowout, it doesn't seem like one. The losing team will just keep doing things a little bit worse than the winning team and by the end of the game it's like 45-7 and I realize, dang, that wasn't actually competitive. No such restrictions this time. I think it's because of the number of times we got gashed for big plays, or maybe it's because of things like big long touchdowns immediately following a pickoff, or maybe just because every time there was an important play, we came out on the wrong side of the outcome.
Complicating matters, of course, is BYU's dominating win over Texas. I seem to recall playing really good defense against BYU. Cougars fans must wonder how on earth they went basically nowhere against a defense that just gave up 9 yards a carry to Oregon and then exploded for 550 rushing yards against Texas. I'm allowed to interpret this however I want, and so for my own sanity I say that we really do have a good run defense, maybe even a really good run defense, but Oregon is special and unique. Plus also, Marcus Mariota was only 14-for-28 passing, which isn't that good, and UVA is allowing only a 40.6% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. David Watford's passing has been kind of crummy, and so has Logan Thomas's, and VT is allowing only a 36.8% completion rate, and so in the department of way too early predictions, that game against the Hokies is really going to put a stellar air assault on display.
Oh well. At least Greyson Lambert didn't fire up a QB controversy, right? Ah, that's not a nice thing to say. I shouldn't say that.
Time for the prediction review:
-- At least two of UVA's running backs, one of which is Kevin Parks, will improve on their BYU rushing total by at least 10 yards. Well, Khalek Shepherd did, because he carried for 46 yards with 45 of them coming on one play. Parks did not, however. Oregon's run defense played much better than I gave them credit for, a major reason for the blowout since UVA could accomplish very little on the ground.
-- UVA's TEs and RBs combine for more catches than their WRs. By a lot, too. 21 to 10. By themselves, Jake McGee and Zach Swanson fulfilled this particular prophecy. Oregon's corners were at least as good as advertised, and I advertised them as comprising "one of the finest secondaries in the country." Darius Jennings caught three passes for -2 yards, which is a huge statement by the Duck cornerbacks. I didn't even realize he'd caught as many as three passes.
-- Watford throws more INTs than TDs. Even when making this prediction I had really hoped for a better than 0-to-3 ratio, but there you are.
-- Oregon breaks at least one TD run of at least 60 yards. Mariota's 71-yarder to open the scoring certainly qualifies. At that point I was regretting not making the prediction "at least three runs" and if I had, I would still have given myself this one because the only reason some of those runs weren't longer is because Oregon was given such nice field position in the first place.
-- Oregon has more than twice as many rush yards as passing yards. I thought for sure I would get this one right, but then the box score shows only 350 rush yards against 207 passing yards. I feel like I ought to give myself this one for the very reason above, but I'll let it slide.
-- Mariota is the only Oregon QB to throw a pass. I have to give at least that much to our defense; at least we'll keep it close enough to keep the scrubs out of the game. I blame the offense for my failure at this prediction, actually.
Going 3-for-6 this week (with one that could've easily made it four) makes me 4-for-10 so far on the season, which is a respectable start. And I'm now 1-1 both straight up and against the spread after winning this week's bet.
Notes from the rest of the ACC:
-- I think you definitely have to give the conference some credit this year for having, now, two statement wins against the SEC, thanks to Miami this week. The ACC-SEC battle this year has been much closer to even. If anyone besides Syracuse would play a Big Ten team we could probably match up pretty well there, too.
-- Don't look now, but Boston College is 2-0. Two weeks from now they'll probably be 2-2, and they still have an uphill battle for bowl eligibility, but I was feeling pretty good about myself after watching the Eagles' defense stuff Wake Forest.
-- Another team I'm feeling pretty good about, or at least, I'm feeling pretty good about my prediction about them: NC State. Michael Strauss - the former Hoo, yes - shredded them for 300 yards, and the Pack barely escaped Richmond.
Senior Seasons feature:
Williams 39, Cummings 33: Will Richardson missed the game, his team's third straight loss to start the season. Cummings is 0-3.
Oscar Smith 42, Lake Taylor 2: Andrew Brown had 4 TFL, 2 sacks, and forced and recovered 2 fumbles in Oscar Smith's dominating, nationally televised win over Lake Taylor. Oscar Smith is 1-0.
Oaks Christian 57, Upland 28 (Jeffrey Farrar) - Upland is 0-2.
Tampa Catholic 13, Central Catholic 10 (Caanan Brown) - CCC is 1-1.
Episcopal Academy 21, Interboro 7 (Evan Butts) - Episcopal is 2-0.
Bayside 14, Princess Anne 0 (Quin Blanding) - Bayside is 2-0.
Eastern View 40, Chancellor 22 (Steven Moss) - Chancellor is 0-2.
Tuscarora 21, Woodgrove 14 (J.J. Jackson) - Woodgrove is 1-1.
Miscellanea:
-- In a development that surprises nobody, the VMI game will only be on ESPN3. Two weeks from now, of course; the first bye week is next week. Ordinarily you'd think before the VMI game is a rotten time for a bye week, but it's probably not the worst thing to have it after that Oregon game.
-- I often complain that I don't have enough of a chance to talk about soccer, thanks to a combination of it being undertelevised and overshadowed, so I took the opportunity to watch the men take on Clemson on Friday. It didn't go well. Overall impression was of a UVA team that had better ball skills than their opponent but was much worse at space and timing, and either chased balls they shouldn't or didn't chase ones they should. Result: defensive breakdowns and little offensive pressure and a 2-0 loss. I wouldn't call it discipline - more like a lack of good recognition, leading to bad spacing and being slow to realize danger on the defensive side.
There won't be a chance to watch the men's team on TV for another month, but the women will be on ESPN3 against Pitt in a couple weeks.
In fact, I've decided the most disappointing part about the game was not anything that actually happened (playcalling, interceptions, big plays given up, etc. etc. - the problem is that there are just too many to pick one) but that they all happened with UVA wearing its classiest uniforms. I'm glad and all that they picked a big game to wear the "traditional"** look but now they probably never will again, at least not this season.
I have to give Oregon this, too: Often, when I'm watching a blowout, it doesn't seem like one. The losing team will just keep doing things a little bit worse than the winning team and by the end of the game it's like 45-7 and I realize, dang, that wasn't actually competitive. No such restrictions this time. I think it's because of the number of times we got gashed for big plays, or maybe it's because of things like big long touchdowns immediately following a pickoff, or maybe just because every time there was an important play, we came out on the wrong side of the outcome.
Complicating matters, of course, is BYU's dominating win over Texas. I seem to recall playing really good defense against BYU. Cougars fans must wonder how on earth they went basically nowhere against a defense that just gave up 9 yards a carry to Oregon and then exploded for 550 rushing yards against Texas. I'm allowed to interpret this however I want, and so for my own sanity I say that we really do have a good run defense, maybe even a really good run defense, but Oregon is special and unique. Plus also, Marcus Mariota was only 14-for-28 passing, which isn't that good, and UVA is allowing only a 40.6% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. David Watford's passing has been kind of crummy, and so has Logan Thomas's, and VT is allowing only a 36.8% completion rate, and so in the department of way too early predictions, that game against the Hokies is really going to put a stellar air assault on display.
Oh well. At least Greyson Lambert didn't fire up a QB controversy, right? Ah, that's not a nice thing to say. I shouldn't say that.
Time for the prediction review:
-- At least two of UVA's running backs, one of which is Kevin Parks, will improve on their BYU rushing total by at least 10 yards. Well, Khalek Shepherd did, because he carried for 46 yards with 45 of them coming on one play. Parks did not, however. Oregon's run defense played much better than I gave them credit for, a major reason for the blowout since UVA could accomplish very little on the ground.
-- UVA's TEs and RBs combine for more catches than their WRs. By a lot, too. 21 to 10. By themselves, Jake McGee and Zach Swanson fulfilled this particular prophecy. Oregon's corners were at least as good as advertised, and I advertised them as comprising "one of the finest secondaries in the country." Darius Jennings caught three passes for -2 yards, which is a huge statement by the Duck cornerbacks. I didn't even realize he'd caught as many as three passes.
-- Watford throws more INTs than TDs. Even when making this prediction I had really hoped for a better than 0-to-3 ratio, but there you are.
-- Oregon breaks at least one TD run of at least 60 yards. Mariota's 71-yarder to open the scoring certainly qualifies. At that point I was regretting not making the prediction "at least three runs" and if I had, I would still have given myself this one because the only reason some of those runs weren't longer is because Oregon was given such nice field position in the first place.
-- Oregon has more than twice as many rush yards as passing yards. I thought for sure I would get this one right, but then the box score shows only 350 rush yards against 207 passing yards. I feel like I ought to give myself this one for the very reason above, but I'll let it slide.
-- Mariota is the only Oregon QB to throw a pass. I have to give at least that much to our defense; at least we'll keep it close enough to keep the scrubs out of the game. I blame the offense for my failure at this prediction, actually.
Going 3-for-6 this week (with one that could've easily made it four) makes me 4-for-10 so far on the season, which is a respectable start. And I'm now 1-1 both straight up and against the spread after winning this week's bet.
Notes from the rest of the ACC:
-- I think you definitely have to give the conference some credit this year for having, now, two statement wins against the SEC, thanks to Miami this week. The ACC-SEC battle this year has been much closer to even. If anyone besides Syracuse would play a Big Ten team we could probably match up pretty well there, too.
-- Don't look now, but Boston College is 2-0. Two weeks from now they'll probably be 2-2, and they still have an uphill battle for bowl eligibility, but I was feeling pretty good about myself after watching the Eagles' defense stuff Wake Forest.
-- Another team I'm feeling pretty good about, or at least, I'm feeling pretty good about my prediction about them: NC State. Michael Strauss - the former Hoo, yes - shredded them for 300 yards, and the Pack barely escaped Richmond.
Senior Seasons feature:
Williams 39, Cummings 33: Will Richardson missed the game, his team's third straight loss to start the season. Cummings is 0-3.
Oscar Smith 42, Lake Taylor 2: Andrew Brown had 4 TFL, 2 sacks, and forced and recovered 2 fumbles in Oscar Smith's dominating, nationally televised win over Lake Taylor. Oscar Smith is 1-0.
Oaks Christian 57, Upland 28 (Jeffrey Farrar) - Upland is 0-2.
Tampa Catholic 13, Central Catholic 10 (Caanan Brown) - CCC is 1-1.
Episcopal Academy 21, Interboro 7 (Evan Butts) - Episcopal is 2-0.
Bayside 14, Princess Anne 0 (Quin Blanding) - Bayside is 2-0.
Eastern View 40, Chancellor 22 (Steven Moss) - Chancellor is 0-2.
Tuscarora 21, Woodgrove 14 (J.J. Jackson) - Woodgrove is 1-1.
Miscellanea:
-- In a development that surprises nobody, the VMI game will only be on ESPN3. Two weeks from now, of course; the first bye week is next week. Ordinarily you'd think before the VMI game is a rotten time for a bye week, but it's probably not the worst thing to have it after that Oregon game.
-- I often complain that I don't have enough of a chance to talk about soccer, thanks to a combination of it being undertelevised and overshadowed, so I took the opportunity to watch the men take on Clemson on Friday. It didn't go well. Overall impression was of a UVA team that had better ball skills than their opponent but was much worse at space and timing, and either chased balls they shouldn't or didn't chase ones they should. Result: defensive breakdowns and little offensive pressure and a 2-0 loss. I wouldn't call it discipline - more like a lack of good recognition, leading to bad spacing and being slow to realize danger on the defensive side.
There won't be a chance to watch the men's team on TV for another month, but the women will be on ESPN3 against Pitt in a couple weeks.
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