Time to round out the players portion of the season preview. Tomorrow, we move into the very interesting nonconference schedule, and then finally, next week, the ACC itself. 48 hours, man. 48 hours.
#32 - London Perrantes - Jr. PG
Now entering his third year as the unquestioned starter at point guard, Perrantes's sophomore year efficiency stats are a bit interesting. Compare:
Perrantes:
3pt%: .316
2pt%: .394
FT%: .778
ARate: 26.5
TORate: 20.3
Olivier Hanlan:
3pt%: .353
2pt%: .513
FT%: .759
ARate: 29.1
TORate: 15.0
Hanlan was Boston College's do-it-all star, the league's top point guard last year and a draft pick of the Utah Jazz after his junior year. There's no doubt who was the better player. But Perrantes finished with an O-rating of 105.0; Hanlan, 107.4. Very little difference.
It goes to show two things: one, I don't know anything about what goes into a player's O-rating, though I'm rashly assuming that crazy things like shooting and assists and turnovers are involved. And two, whatever is in the secret sauce, it rates Perrantes's contributions to the offense pretty highly.
Perrantes has a quality to his play that you can spot even if you don't know you're spotting it. That's what helped drive a narrative last year that was barely borne out on the stat sheet - that Perrantes asserted himself more, shot more, and picked up the scoring pace to help UVA's offense cope with the loss of Justin Anderson. He didn't do much of that, actually, not so's you'd notice if all you did was peruse stat sheets. But it looked like he did, and perception is reality.
So far, the Cali-cool image he projects has been a perfect fit with Tony's methodical approach to offense. There's an ever-so-slight backwards lean that he sometimes projects in pictures of him making the opening pass of the play setup. Tony hasn't minded him setting an offensive pace that uses all 35 seconds of the shot clock. But he will now, because that 31st second is a doozy. With a tad bit more urgency required on the offensive end, Perrantes will have to adjust. Move a little quicker. Maybe save some time on the front end by not always walking the ball up the court like a stroll through the gardens. The adaptability of Perrantes's game will be challenged this year, and because of the way he can project on the flow of the offense, how he responds will set the tone.
Oh, and it'd be cool if he could improve his shooting a little this year, too. /every critique of every point guard ever.
#33 - Jack Salt - rFr. C
UVa's New Zealand import will get to take the court this year after a redshirt year spent bulking up and getting used to the pace of American basketball. Salt added 15 pounds, which is bad news for opponents because every report we've ever seen says he likes cracking skulls.
Also, literally every story I've read about him this year - and there are a lot because a yet-to-be-unwrapped 6'11 Kiwi is a curiosity worth finding out about - mentions that he sets brutal screens. It seems random. I don't know what to make of this. It could be bad news in disguise - if he were playing Bad Boys defense with eight nasty streaks or was a sudden scoring revelation, they'd write about that instead. But it could be secretly really good news - because part of the reason Will Sherrill became a regular player was his diligence in setting screens.
The safest bet is that Mike Tobey is still a very skilled player, much more experienced, and going to take up 95% of the minutes that call for a true center. It might seem that Salt and Jarred Reuter are competing for the last of the big-man minutes, but I doubt that because Reuter could easily be on the court at the same time as Tobey; Salt never will. I think whatever meaningful minutes Salt gets will be in cases where Tobey's in foul trouble and the opponent has trotted out a true center of their own.
I also think that even though he won't be seen much, there's major cult-hero potential here. If he's as powerfully physical as all the reports say, somebody is either going to get whacked on a perfectly legal screen, or have a shot ruthlessly rejected after Salt roots himself into place in the post, and people will notice. What I'm hoping for is a future where Salt and Reuter are both patrolling the middle like a couple of roughneck bastards and everyone just hates them. For this year, it'd be cool if we got a few glimpses of that.
#51 - Darius Thompson - rSo. SG
Here's redshirt number two from last year, another Christmas present to open on November 13. With Malcolm Brogdon in charge, the chances that Thompson breaks into the starting lineup are zilch. But like Anthony Gill before him, Thompson is a potential really big deal.
Possibly the most athletic player on the team, Thompson brings a slashing, driving threat that's been a little lacking in Tony's tenure. Truth is, in his year at Tennessee he was a lousy shooter. Two or three, it didn't matter, he couldn't hit it if it was a jump shot. But he also took 71% of his shots at the rim....where he also was a lousy shooter at just .369. And all that was two years ago. If those numbers improve, and you ought to believe they will to at least some extent, Thompson has the chance to be a tremendous bench scorer and a Sixth Man of the Year candidate.
Thompson will probably be asked to play the point some, where he'd give opponents a completely different look from Perrantes. Perrantes is smallish, conservative on defense, and more likely to shoot a jumper than drive. Thompson will try to use his excellent length and athleticism to jump passing lanes, and look to drive on offense. Justin Anderson was a tremendously important player because his athleticism scared opponents and forced them to give the rest of the team room to operate. Thompson can look to partly fill those shoes this year.
#1 - Austin Nichols - Jr. PF
#2 - Justice Bartley - Fr. SG
#24 - Caid Kirven - Sr. PF
#25 - Mamadi Diakite - Fr. SF
#34 - Jeff Jones - Jr. SF
Here's the end of the bench - the walk-ons and redshirts. UVA will have the most talented non-playing players in the country. Kirven and Jones are familiar sights at the end of blowouts and do an admirable job of keeping comical scores comical. Bartley brings a fair amount of talent; he turned down a scholarship at UNLV (that due to his late appearance on the recruiting scene would've had to wait til his sophomore year) in order to study business at UVA.
And of course, the redshirts. Nichols is coming off a season where he was one of the top ten shot blockers in the country (efficiency stats) and a starter at Memphis - possibly the top prize of the transfer circuit this summer. Diakite was planning on playing a prep year, but UVA convinced him to essentially prep under Tony Bennett instead. By some accounts he's the second-best athlete on the team and UVA is redshirting him just because they can. They'll stay in the shadows for a year and then help cushion the blow of losing four rotation seniors after this season.
Showing posts with label jones. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jones. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
Sunday, June 21, 2015
series preview: Vanderbilt
Date/Time: Mon-Wed, 6/22-6/24; 8:00
TV: ESPN
Record against the Commodores: 1-4
Last meeting: Vandy 2-1 over UVA (8-9, 7-2, 2-3); 6/23-6/25/14, Omaha, NE (CWS Final)
Last game: UVA 5, UF 4 (6/20); Vandy 7, TCU 1 (6/19)
Pitching probables:
Monday: RHP Connor Jones (7-2, 3.05, 107 Ks) vs. RHP Carson Fulmer (13-2, 1.95, 159 Ks)
Tuesday: LHP Nathan Kirby (5-3, 2.61, 76 Ks) vs. LHP Philip Pfeifer (6-4, 3.77, 112 Ks)
Wednesday: LHP Brandon Waddell (4-5, 4.02, 87 Ks) vs. RHP Walker Buehler (5-2, 2.85, 89 Ks)
(The last two, for UVA, are guesses on my part.)
You can't make this stuff up. Or rather, maybe you can only make this stuff up. Imagine it, dream it, but never expect it to come true. UVA started winning in California and just didn't stop, most recently taking two out of three from the SEC champions to bring in sight the pot of gold at the end of the road to Omaha. I can't decide whether to be astounded the little team that could made it this far, or whether to call it postseason business as usual. Winning the regional isn't that hard, so why shouldn't they? And once you've won the regional, why shouldn't they win the super? And once they win the super, why shouldn't they just keep on winning in Omaha?
Well, lots of reasons, actually. The bullpen is Josh Sborz and "lol I dunno maybe this guy over here." Nobody really knows who the ace starter is anymore. The lineup has four guys in a row hitting under .250. The opponents keep trotting out MLB-bound players. Two of our top three draft picks are shells of themselves thanks to untimely injuries. When teams like that keep winning, all a writer can do is fall back on things like "clutch" and "team of destiny" that drive opposing fans batshit insane.
And after all that clutch hitting and pitching, a rematch. At the end of the road, the teams left standing are the same ones as last year. The tables have turned somewhat: last year, UVA cruised through three games and set up the bullpen all nice and easy while Vandy needed the extra game to get past Texas. UVA was probably the more talented team, and outscored Vanderbilt over three games, but didn't deliver in the clutch and watched Vandy walk off with the trophy. Now the Hoos come in on fumes and giving up the on-paper edge in all conceivable aspects of the game. Vanderbilt's rotation is set up all nice and neat and their pen is fresh. It's true what they said on ESPN - a lot of books won't take bets on the series, so heavily favored is Vanderbilt.
Regardless, you have to play the games. I told you a couple weeks ago, I didn't stop telling you, and I'll continue to tell you: Connor Jones and Brandon Waddell. UVA will win for as long as those two are cutting down opposing hitters. When they stop, so does the fun. Let's hope those tables turn all the way.
Vandy's lineup:
-- Catcher: Karl Ellison (.213-2-15). Ellison starts about 2/3 of the time, actually; Vandy also platoons in Jason Delay. With a .292 batting average, Delay is the superior hitter, but Ellison is a better defender.
-- First base: Zander Wiel (.317-15-67): Cleanup hitter, which means he protects Dansby Swanson in the lineup. Vandy will trot out three players in a row who've got 15 homers apiece, and Wiel is the last in that murderer's row. Like UVA, Vandy won their winner's bracket game 1-0, and it was Wiel providing the decisive home run.
-- Second base: Tyler Campbell (.235-2-26). Unlike the Florida lineup, Vandy does offer some lightweight hitters. Campbell bats ninth and hits for little power, little contact, and rarely walks. He's a junior, but went undrafted this year.
-- Third base: Will Toffey (.297-4-47). One of only two freshmen in the lineup. Toffey bats fifth, sometimes sixth, and has good line-drive power. Probably going to be one of the SEC's best in the upcoming years; for now a bit overshadowed but still dangerous.
-- Shortstop: Dansby Swanson (.337-15-62). Did you know he was the top overall pick in the draft? They might've mentioned it somewhere at some point, maybe in passing. Let's face it, though - he is a really good hitter. He leads the team in every hitting stat, walks and triples included, and has speed to go along with his bat. You're allowed to breathe a little sigh of relief when he walks back to the dugout after an at-bat.
-- Left field: Jeren Kendall (.291-8-40). The other freshman. Leads the team in stolen bases, which is really an accomplishment on this team because Vandy is a hyper-aggressive team on the basepaths - and they have a tremendous success rate, too. Also has six triples, tied for the lead with Swanson, and the best OPS (.959) on the team outside the aforementioned 2-3-4 hitters.
-- Center field: Bryan Reynolds (.319-5-48). In Vandy's three games in Omaha, Reynolds is batting .500. He hasn't made the headlines the way Wiel or Kendall did, with dramatic game-winning homers, but he's been Vandy's steadiest hitter.
-- Right field: Rhett Wiseman (.319-15-49). In Vandy's lineup, the #2 hitter and the first of the three truly dangerous hitters. Quite a change from last year when he hit zero home runs all season.
-- Designated hitter: Ro Coleman (.296-1-25). Leadoff hitter. Tough to pitch to because he's 5'5" and crouches, and draws a lot of walks that way.
Starting pitchers:
-- Monday: RHP Carson Fulmer (13-2, 1.95, 159 Ks). Mid-90s fastball, absurdly good breaking ball. Fulmer was the third pitcher taken in the MLB draft. If you hate watching that stupid delivery of his, you're not alone; scouts hate it too, because it's a max-effort delivery that can sometimes jerk his control off track. But it also distracts hitters, and though his walk totals are a touch elevated, Fulmer's allowed only a .186 BA all season.
-- Tuesday: LHP Philip Pfeifer (6-4, 3.77, 112 Ks). Pfeifer missed last season - in fact he failed a drug test and was left off the team - but straightened out and returned to pitch well enough to be drafted in the third round by the Dodgers. He's pitched even better in the postseason, most especially against TCU where he threw seven shutout innings. Pfeifer has a solid curveball, and overall is rather similar to Waddell in that he's probably not going to top about 91 on the gun, at most, and relies on location and command to get hitters out.
-- Wednesday: RHP Walker Buehler (5-2, 2.85, 89 Ks). Buehler's been a bit more hittable and less strikeout-ey than his teammates here, but was nevertheless drafted in the first round thanks to his ability to mix up speeds on his fastball and throw two different breaking pitches. MLB.com describes his change-up as "inconsistent to effective" which is basically just saying "inconsistent." Still, he too shut down the TCU lineup in Omaha and has only allowed one run in two postseason starts.
Let's face it: this is a tall order for UVA. Very tall. So was Florida; so was winning a bunch of regional and super-regional games against ostensibly excellent closers when trailing in the 7th and beyond. Essentially, though, UVA just won a three-game series against Florida. One in which Brandon Waddell got enough rest to pitch twice, sure, but a three-game series nonetheless. Vanderbilt is very tough, but not remarkably tougher than Florida. Slightly worse lineup. Better ace starter, but the next two guys aren't much different.
Still, UVA must go into this probably without Josh Sborz on Monday. Connor Jones needs to go nice and deep into the game. Nathan Kirby presumably starts on Tuesday - that's on fairly short rest and another pitch count limit, after which the bullpen must deliver big-time, again. And if the series goes to Wednesday, Waddell is on fairly short rest too - though he only threw 87 pitches and I mean once you get to Wednesday pitch counts are out the window. Chances are good that someone like Alec Bettinger or Tommy Doyle is going to have to throw some quality innings. That rubber game was a bullpen-killer.
Gotta play the games, though. Vandy's undefeated in the postseason. UVA has yet to be anything but an underdog - even when hosting a fellow #3 regional seed, more experts picked against them than not. And yet UVA's looseness and comfort in the situation is not a cliche. They're the team you watch from the other side of the bracket, hoping someone will take them out because until they're gone, you can't rely on the stats to tell you anything. Now they're here in the finals and you have to do it yourself. That's a great way to make the favorites nervous.
Thursday, June 18, 2015
gators chomped
I sorta wish I hadn't completely used up my supply of grandiose praise for Brandon Waddell last weekend, because - uh. Going into the "bracket" games in Omaha - the second round, that is - here's how many runs each CWS team had scored up to that point:
Florida: 68
TCU: 68
Vanderbilt: 57
Miami: 51
Arkansas: 44
Virginia: 38
Fullerton: 35
LSU: 27
And Florida was one of only four teams to take the shortest path - the minimum six games and six wins to get to that point. TCU needed the most games possible (nine), not the least, in order to tie with the Gators on that list.
Florida also won on Wednesday, rather easily. Their run count in each game up to just now looks like this:
19, 8, 2, 13, 11, 15, BRANDON WADDELL, 10
Point: This is no small feat, what Waddell did to them. Forget Miami, which got all the hype for their lineup and fizzled twice. Florida has the best lineup in Omaha, and by logical extension, quite possibly the whole country. Or if "best" is too subjective, certainly the most productive.
Was it just a bad day? Hard to call it that, when they hadn't really proven themselves overly prone to them so far this postseason. Waddell, a pitcher who specializes in - and requires - pinpoint location, had it in spades on Monday night. He only struck out three hitters, which is four fewer than he did against Maryland. But he pitched to a lot of successful contact. Sabermetricians might point to BABIP and suggest some luck involved, which is why it's always important to put stats into context by actually watching the game.** Only five Gators hit the ball into the outfield all day.
The pitching matchup was fascinating. Waddell, the command and control artist, against Puk, the fireballing bazooka heaver. Puk was effective in his own way, but he and command have yet to make each other's acquaintance. That wasn't working on his third trip through the lineup and probably would've fallen completely to pieces on a fourth go-round.
Consider me impressed, blown away, absolutely smitten. It took me a while to get here, I'll admit - Waddell's game has always seemed balanced on a ledge. This year he was tipping right over, too, most of the season. Two games have launched Waddell straight into the pantheon. Very different games. Both masterful pitching performances.
**I am not anti-sabermetrics. Sabermetrics are fantastic. I just think they augment rather than replace the good old-fashioned techniques.
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-- I don't want to discount Josh Sborz, who accounted for two of the nine shutout innings after all. Particularly the eighth, in which he escaped a two-on-none-out jam with catlike reflexes on one batter and unhittable stuff on the next five. On that first out, there's so much that could've gone wrong. First, the ball was just plain launched - dude could've been hurt. If he'd deflected it wrong, like with the tip of his glove and off into foul territory, the run might've scored. If he'd missed it, Ernie Clement was positioned almost up the middle and could've had a shot at a double play (if he'd made what would've had to be a pretty slick backhand stab) - but the run would've scored. Then Sborz had to make a throw to the most dangerous base without his glove on - and it sounds stupid but that's a really distracting situation. Randomly put a three-pound weight on, say, Peyton Manning's off hand in the middle of a play - he'd be suddenly haywire. It's no different suddenly losing the same weight, if it's a familiar one.
-- Should BOC have sent Sborz in earlier? Like at the beginning of the eighth, or at least after Waddell walked the first hitter? Uh, no. Keep in mind - Waddell was basically no-hitting these dudes. Their one hit was a nubby little dribbler that in retrospect I'm glad happened because the added distraction of pitching an actual no-hitter would've been at best an unnecessary distraction. Pull a dominant pitcher before he shows any signs of being less than dominant? No reason to.
-- Florida will send Logan Shore back to the mound on Friday. Shore beat Miami in the opener, but he wasn't sharp, and set the tone for his not-sharpness by thwacking the first batter. And as is common knowledge by now, Nathan Kirby makes his long-awaited re-debut. I really thought he'd stay in the pen, but the logic in this makes perfect sense: we don't know whether he'll be awesome or unbelievably rusty, and really, neither do the coaches. If the former, Jones and Waddell line up to pitch the first two games of the finals. If the latter, BOC can still choose between those two for the Florida re-rematch on Saturday.
Florida: 68
TCU: 68
Vanderbilt: 57
Miami: 51
Arkansas: 44
Virginia: 38
Fullerton: 35
LSU: 27
And Florida was one of only four teams to take the shortest path - the minimum six games and six wins to get to that point. TCU needed the most games possible (nine), not the least, in order to tie with the Gators on that list.
Florida also won on Wednesday, rather easily. Their run count in each game up to just now looks like this:
19, 8, 2, 13, 11, 15, BRANDON WADDELL, 10
Point: This is no small feat, what Waddell did to them. Forget Miami, which got all the hype for their lineup and fizzled twice. Florida has the best lineup in Omaha, and by logical extension, quite possibly the whole country. Or if "best" is too subjective, certainly the most productive.
Was it just a bad day? Hard to call it that, when they hadn't really proven themselves overly prone to them so far this postseason. Waddell, a pitcher who specializes in - and requires - pinpoint location, had it in spades on Monday night. He only struck out three hitters, which is four fewer than he did against Maryland. But he pitched to a lot of successful contact. Sabermetricians might point to BABIP and suggest some luck involved, which is why it's always important to put stats into context by actually watching the game.** Only five Gators hit the ball into the outfield all day.
The pitching matchup was fascinating. Waddell, the command and control artist, against Puk, the fireballing bazooka heaver. Puk was effective in his own way, but he and command have yet to make each other's acquaintance. That wasn't working on his third trip through the lineup and probably would've fallen completely to pieces on a fourth go-round.
Consider me impressed, blown away, absolutely smitten. It took me a while to get here, I'll admit - Waddell's game has always seemed balanced on a ledge. This year he was tipping right over, too, most of the season. Two games have launched Waddell straight into the pantheon. Very different games. Both masterful pitching performances.
**I am not anti-sabermetrics. Sabermetrics are fantastic. I just think they augment rather than replace the good old-fashioned techniques.
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-- I don't want to discount Josh Sborz, who accounted for two of the nine shutout innings after all. Particularly the eighth, in which he escaped a two-on-none-out jam with catlike reflexes on one batter and unhittable stuff on the next five. On that first out, there's so much that could've gone wrong. First, the ball was just plain launched - dude could've been hurt. If he'd deflected it wrong, like with the tip of his glove and off into foul territory, the run might've scored. If he'd missed it, Ernie Clement was positioned almost up the middle and could've had a shot at a double play (if he'd made what would've had to be a pretty slick backhand stab) - but the run would've scored. Then Sborz had to make a throw to the most dangerous base without his glove on - and it sounds stupid but that's a really distracting situation. Randomly put a three-pound weight on, say, Peyton Manning's off hand in the middle of a play - he'd be suddenly haywire. It's no different suddenly losing the same weight, if it's a familiar one.
-- Should BOC have sent Sborz in earlier? Like at the beginning of the eighth, or at least after Waddell walked the first hitter? Uh, no. Keep in mind - Waddell was basically no-hitting these dudes. Their one hit was a nubby little dribbler that in retrospect I'm glad happened because the added distraction of pitching an actual no-hitter would've been at best an unnecessary distraction. Pull a dominant pitcher before he shows any signs of being less than dominant? No reason to.
-- Florida will send Logan Shore back to the mound on Friday. Shore beat Miami in the opener, but he wasn't sharp, and set the tone for his not-sharpness by thwacking the first batter. And as is common knowledge by now, Nathan Kirby makes his long-awaited re-debut. I really thought he'd stay in the pen, but the logic in this makes perfect sense: we don't know whether he'll be awesome or unbelievably rusty, and really, neither do the coaches. If the former, Jones and Waddell line up to pitch the first two games of the finals. If the latter, BOC can still choose between those two for the Florida re-rematch on Saturday.
Thursday, June 11, 2015
game preview: Arkansas
Date/Time: Saturday, June 13; 3:00
TV: ESPN
Record against the Hogs: 2-1
Last meeting: UVA 9, UA 2; 6/1/14, Charlottesville (NCAA Regional)
Last weekend: UVA 2-0 over Maryland (5-3, 5-4); UA 2-1 over Mo. St. (18-4, 1-3, 3-2)
Pitching probables:
Virginia: RHP Connor Jones (7-2, 2.95, 105 Ks)
Arkansas: RHP Trey Killian (3-4, 4.74, 56 Ks)
Familiarity, again. Seems to happen a lot on our roads to Omaha. UVA played the rude host to Arkansas last year, beating the regional 2 seed twice to polish off a three-game regional sweep. The stage is bigger now. UVA must try to battle it out in Omaha against a whole bunch of teams that come much more highly recommended on paper.
It's tempting to draw parallels to Fresno State, the regional four seed that upended the whole tournament and walked out of Omaha as national champs. Baseball certainly lends itself to that kind of tournament run. Still, at this point, that's getting ahead of ourselves. Fresno State had already beaten two regional 1 seeds by this time, and finished up the tourney having beaten literally half the eight national seeds and personally eliminated three of them. UVA hasn't yet faced a regional 1 seed, and still won't have after this game. (Miami and Florida, the other teams in the "regional", are both national seeds, so that streak comes to an end in game 2 no matter what.)
UVA faces an Arkansas team struggling, if this is is possible, even more with pitching depth than the Hoos are. Trey Killian almost certainly gets the ball on Saturday, and those depth issues likely won't hurt the Hogs much yet in game 1, but they recently announced the loss of a mainstay reliever, and they also lost a rotation pitcher during the SEC tournament. (Dominic Taccolini, who did a very solid job pitching in relief of Killian during last year's first matchup against Arkansas.)
Meanwhile, the Hoos are headed in the other direction. Nathan Kirby is expected to return to the mound in Omaha. When, only the coaching staff can say, but at some point, he'll come trotting out of the bullpen. Given the extra days of rest between games, this is a huge, huge addition, basically giving UVA just about all the depth it needs. He and Josh Sborz were the gems of their recruiting class and the first two Hoos taken in this year's MLB draft (Brewers and Dodgers, in case you were wondering) - it's a little strange that they're being used as bullpen aces rather than innings-eating starters.
Speaking of starters, Connor Jones will go for UVA. You know the drill. Said it before and I'll say it again: as long as Jones and Brandon Waddell are shutting down hitters and pitching deep into games, UVA will keep advancing. The moment one of them falters, it's the beginning of the end. Here's the lineup the Razorbacks will send to the plate to face CJ:
-- Catcher: Tucker Pennell (.200-0-7): The light-hitting juco transfer Pennell anchors the ninth spot in the lineup. With an OPS of just .508, he's neither proficient at getting on base nor a power hitter of any kind. That means he's probably going to do something totally heroic at some point in this tournament.
-- First base: Clark Eagan (.284-2-30): There's a mashup of solid but unremarkable hitters occupying the 5 through 8 slots in the Arkansas lineup; Eagan is one, having batted both fifth and eighth during the postseason run. He was a platooning DH last year, but starts regularly at first and boasts a pretty good glove.
-- Second base: Rick Nomura (.294-4-19): Nomura is another back-half player, a hitter who prefers to make contact rather than wait for something to happen; his walks and K's total just 42 all year. This places him generally fifth or sixth in the order. He's also an excellent fielder.
-- Third base: Bobby Wernes (.280-5-26): One of four Arkansas juniors taken in the draft (30th round), Wernes bats second and showed a huge improvement over his numbers from last year, when he barely hit. This year his bat has some pop, as he's third on the team among eligible players in slugging - 11 of his 63 hits went for more than two bases, a number second only to superstar Andrew Benintendi.
-- Shortstop: Michael Bernal (.280-4-30): Bernal's numbers are a slight oddity; four homers and only five doubles. Really, he's not a particularly powerful bat, but you can do much worse than to have a .280 hitter in the 7th or 8th slot. He does have a good batting eye: despite being only seventh among eligible players in batting average, he's second in OBP. (Partly due to getting plunked a lot, too.)
-- Left field: Joe Serrano (.285-4-35): No, not Pedro. Leadoff hitter who's also proficient at taking a walk, but also strikes out a bit more than a leadoff hitter should.
-- Center field: Andrew Benintendi (.380-19-55). The 7th overall pick in the MLB draft, there's not much Benintendi doesn't do. His OPS isn't a perfectly normal .715 - he slugs .715, with an OPS of 1.204. His chances of getting on base are almost 1-in-2, and between his extra base hits and his 23 steals, he's got roughly a 1-in-5 chance of getting himself at least to second base every time he steps to the plate. By far the toughest hitter UVA has faced this postseason.
-- Right field: Tyler Spoon (.331-6-54): As the cleanup hitter, Spoon has the job of protecting Benintendi in the lineup, and does just fine at that. He's the team leader in doubles and slugs .500 himself. He doesn't walk much, but it's not his job to. Spoon is also one of the Hogs' four draftees, going in the 35th round.
-- Designated hitter: Brett McAfee (.280-2-22): McAfee was the starting shortstop for about a month last year before he went down with an injury; he's seen time there this year as well, but settled into the DH job lately. Sixth or seventh batter and another one of those decent hitters whose numbers don't stink but don't jump off any pages.
-- Starting pitcher: Trey Killian (3-4, 4.74, 56 Ks): Killian has a wide array of different pitches - fastball, cutter, change, slider, curve - and it's the potential to develop at least some of them into major-league stuff that got him drafted pretty high. That and his excellent sophomore year. Not so much his junior-year numbers. Killian battled tendonitis early in the season and hasn't really ever rounded into form. But he's pitched on Friday most of the year, and with Taccolini out and Keaton McKinney having hip troubles, Killian is really the only healthy starter. UVA knocked Killian off the bump early in last year's matchup against him; those numbers offer plenty of hope they can do it again.
-- Bullpen: Despite losing James Teague to an elbow injury, Arkansas has plenty of options here; it's their rotation, not their pen, having the major depth issues. (Teague also started 10 games this year, and probably would've been high on the consideration list to start a game sometime in Omaha.) Zach Jackson - with 87 Ks in 56.1 innings and a .185 OBA - is used as something of a super-reliever much as Sborz is, and is probably the first off the bench if Killian gets into trouble. Jackson Lowery is a bit wild at times but a solid option, though he may be held back to start a game himself. Lance Phillips and Josh Alberius are also dependable options for a couple innings. One thing about the Arkansas pitching options: they're totally bereft of left-handers, except for a couple players who won't be used. Every Razorback who takes the hill in Omaha will be a righty.
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On paper, Arkansas isn't too scary. (Neither is UVA, but at least we'll be starting an ace with ace numbers. On the other hand, four of nine lineup hitters are hitting .252 or worse.) Arkansas isn't too different from USC. Pretty good lineup - two stars, one guy with barely any bat at all, and six solid regular dudes. Killian's numbers, though, might be the worst of any starter in Omaha in recent memory. He's clearly a better pitcher than his stats, but sometimes that's a thing for next year, not right now.
Benintendi will probably get his hits, but whether he does or doesn't, it's mainly the rest of the lineup that'll win or lose this game for Connor Jones. If he can mow the rest of them down, UVA will win - possibly by a lot. If the bottom half of the lineup starts dinging him, UVA might find itself on a track to go 0-for-Nebraska.
You can bet, though, that Arkansas won't let Killian dig too deep a hole, if things start going south. I expect a quick hook. If UVA's bats start off lively, Arkansas will ask Zach Jackson to hold down the fort while they try and repair the damage. A big win will require the bats to stay hot against the bullpen. Ultimately, though, UVA should be favored. Joe McCarthy has been heating up after an understandably slow start, and UVA has, if nothing else, been the tourney's most clutch-hitting team. The Hoos have won five games - and been losing to start the 7th inning in all but one (and that was a 1-1 tie.) With Omaha's ballpark encouraging low-scoring games, that not only gives UVA a chance to build on their clutch reputation, but levels the playing field for a team like ours with a thin bullpen - starters can go deeper into games. Game 2 will feature a stronger opponent than UVA has yet faced this postseason, but I really like UVA's chances to get there on the winning side of the bracket.
Thursday, June 4, 2015
series preview: Maryland
Date/Time: Fri.-Sun., 6/5-6/7; 4:00, 3:00, 3:00
(Sunday if necessary)
TV: ESPNUVA on Fri. and Sat., ESPNUVA or ESPN2 on Sun.
Record against the Terps: 111-80-1
Last meeting: UVA 2-1 over Maryland (4-5, 7-3, 11-2); 6/7-6/9/14, Charlottesville (NCAA Super Regional)
Last weekend:
UVA won Lake Elsinore Regional (6-1 over USC, 3-1 over SDSU, 14-10 over USC)
Maryland won Los Angeles Regional (3-1 over Ole Miss, 4-1 over UCLA, 2-4 to UCLA, 2-1 over UCLA)
Pitching probables:
Friday:
RHP Connor Jones (6-2, 2.90, 101 Ks) vs. RHP Mike Shawaryn (13-2, 1.66, 133 Ks)
Saturday:
LHP Brandon Waddell (3-5, 4.12, 74 Ks) vs. RHP Brian Shaffer (5-1, 4.57, 52 Ks)
Sunday:
RHP Alec Bettinger (4-5, 4.89, 62 Ks) vs. RHP Ryan Selmer (3-1, 1.86, 19 Ks)
(Friday's have been released officially. Saturday and Sunday are wild guesses of my own. Bettinger got nuked last weekend but it's not like we're loaded down with other options. Selmer only has three starts this season for Maryland but two were in the postseason and the other was the week before.)
Hosting a super regional is almost old hat for UVA. The way we got here this year is not. The combination of circumstances it took to make that happen had some astronomical odds attached. Funny sport, though, baseball. So much of it is mental, and so much of the mental aspect comes from confidence and having been there before. UVA is just about officially that team that won't die til you stab the heart.
Course, maybe being at home isn't the greatest thing, the way UVA has struggled (relatively speaking) at Davenport and been so good on the road. And you can bet the opponent wants blood. Revenge will be on the Terps' mind, after they were just one win away from Omaha last year at the same venue. UVA doesn't have nearly the team it had last year, on paper, and that pitching staff still is what it is: thinner than cheap beer. D1Baseball gives UVA the edge absolutely nowhere on the field - but gives the Hoos the intangibles edge. Sometimes that's all it takes.
The scouting report on Maryland:
-- First base: Kevin Biondic (.182-0-9). Almost certain to bat ninth. Biondic has been in and out of the lineup all year as the Terps hunted for back-of-the-order hitters who could, uh, hit.
-- Second base: Brandon Lowe (.329-9-53). Maryland's park is a bandbox, with the deepest part being about 370 or so, and right-handers in particular can hit balls out like it's nothing. You have to take most RH power numbers with a grain of salt. Lowe, however, is a lefty. He leads Maryland in nearly all conceivable categories, including HBP, and is entrenched in the 3-hole in the lineup.
-- Third base: Jose Cuas (.241-11-53). The book on Cuas is much the same as last year: not the world's greatest contact hitter and strikes out too often, but when he gets his bat on the ball it can really fly. Typically bats fifth.
-- Shortstop: Kevin Smith (.274-7-35). Not much sticks out. Smith is a good player, was described as such in the "opposing coach breakdown" on D1Baseball, and never mentioned again. He bats second, and basically does his job, neither striking the fear of God into anyone, nor acting the automatic out.
-- Left field: Tim Lewis (.215-0-32). Not an ounce of pop in his bat and never has been, but he can wheel around the bases and has five triples to show for his efforts. He was a much better hitter last year and has lost almost eighty points off his average this year. Bats in the bottom third of the order.
-- Center field: LaMonte Wade (.344-4-29). Missed a portion of the season. As tough an out as there is in the Maryland lineup, with 29 walks against only 16 strikeouts. Natural and obvious leadoff hitter.
-- Right field: Anthony Papio (.261-6-25). Fills out the sixth or seventh spot in the order. Not a frightening hitter. Last year I called him a strikeout machine; this is still true as he has 61 of them. Still, one of only two players to start every game.
-- Catcher: Kevin Martir (.339-7-44). A good hitter who holds down the cleanup spot and makes a very difficult middle of the order hitting behind Lowe. You can run him ragged on the basepaths, though; he's only thrown out nine of 37 basestealers.
-- Designated hitter: Nick Cieri (.305-3-27). Much better hitter than he was last year, when he was the only freshman in the starting lineup. Usually bats sixth or seventh.
-- Pitching staff:
Friday: RHP Mike Shawaryn. Only a sophomore, Shawaryn is one of the top pitchers in the country. Lots of national recognition: first-team all-American, national team roster, etc. UVA avoided Dillon Tate, so this is easily the toughest pitcher they've faced in the postseason. Shawaryn doesn't have an overpowering fastball or anything like a nasty slider, but he commands his pitches exceptionally well and his changeup has developed big-time just over the course of this season.
Saturday: RHP Brian Shaffer. A guess here. Shaffer has been the second pitcher on the hill in the B1G tourney and the regional as well. Shaffer's a tall, lanky righty at 6'5", 181, who throws to a ton of contact. He's walked just 9 in 61 innings this year, and - rare for a college pitcher - hasn't hit any batters. You have to hit him. He doesn't have overpowering stuff at all, and relies on his defense. If your hits find the gaps, you'll knock him off the bump early. That said, he threw 7 innings against top Big Ten team Illinois, in the tournament, and shut them down hard.
Sunday: RHP Ryan Selmer. Another guess. Like Shaffer, a freshman, but even taller at 6'8". To make things more fun, he's a sinkerballer, though that part of the scouting report might've been influenced by how high he throws the ball from to begin with. He doesn't strike out many hitters, but it's really hard to hit the ball in the air against a guy like this.
Bullpen: Maryland has a really good 8-9 setup in Alex Robinson and closer Kevin Mooney. Mooney was a roller coaster last year; this year, opponents are batting .131. Robinson is a really hard-throwing lefty; he walks lots of guys, strikes out even more, and also barely allows any hits. The kind of pitcher who really messes up your approach after you've seen seven innings of righties without elite velocity. Maryland will also heavily use Zach Morris and Robert Galligan, both also lefties. Galligan is a long, long reliever, good for more than once through the order if necessary, and could start a game.
-- Synopsis: It's hard to believe Maryland is the only thing standing between UVA and Omaha. After all that's gone on this season, Omaha is two wins away. Incredible.
Maryland is no pushover. They have a very decided advantage on the mound. More bullpen depth, more bullpen talent, a true ace in Shawaryn, and far better options on Sunday than UVA can pull out. At least on paper. Nathan Kirby has been kinda sorta cleared to pitch, but nobody should be expecting him to swoop into the rescue.
That means, like the regional, this series is on the shoulders of Connor Jones and Brandon Waddell. Jones is the best we got right now. Waddell has struggled, but he pitched a beauty against SDSU and Maryland is probably a slight downgrade at the plate from the Aztecs.
At the plate is where UVA has the edge. D1Baseball called it a push, but Maryland's home run numbers, especially on all their right-handed hitters (and they have many), thanks to the phone booth they play in. And oh yeah the conference they play in - even though the Big Ten put two other teams in the tourney, it was still crappy most of the rest of the way down the standings. If the UVA lineup can get to Shawaryn, look out.
This is a pretty evenly-matched series, so if I were a faraway objective observer, I'd give the edge to Maryland in three games. Pitching staff. Intangibles could swing this series wildly in either direction, though. Does Maryland have a healthy sense of revenge? Does UVA's pitching hit a wall and fold? Or do Maryland's freshmen - and they have quite a few in the lineup and on the hill, including Shaffer and Selmer - get all wide-eyed and shaky while UVA's battle-tested group buckles down to business? Fascinating storylines and Omaha at stake. Doesn't get much better.
Monday, June 1, 2015
super, thanks for asking
It took a while, but spring finally sprung, as they say. You can tell because UVA sports have begun kicking ass again.
So much that was said about the Lake Elsinore regional came true. Evenly-matched? Yup - the regional flipped upside-down right out of the gate, with the top two teams both facing elimination after one day. UCSB as a shaky host? Yup again - the only one seed not to win a game. And UVA needing to race through at top speed or else miss out on the supers? I guess we don't know for sure, which is good.
But BOC sure felt that way. In other years, Josh Sborz probably wouldn't have been kept on the mound after his team padded a 3-1 lead with three more runs brought to you by Geico. And he wouldn't have been asked to "save" a five-run lead after pitching the previous two days, either. Sborz's usage tells you all you need to know about how BOC felt about stretching out the series, which is to say, DON'T, at all costs short of shredding all his elbow ligaments.
It's obvious why: come the 11th inning, the Hoos were down to one unused pitcher, who was also the center fielder. Had UVA lost that game I don't know what the hell, man. You'd have had to hope a combination of Adam Haseley and Alec Bettinger could've gotten you through seven innings, eight if you're really lucky, and then I suppose more of Sborz (who wouldn't have gone on Sunday if he wasn't protecting a lead) and then some dudes who'd pitched like three innings all year.
Scary thought. Less scary had San Diego State held on in the losers' bracket, because their pitching staff is in even worse shape, which makes me sort of wish they'd beaten USC and then us on Sunday to set up a hitters' duel for the ages. If 14-10 represents the mutual near-collapse of two pitching staffs, I'd've bet everything on the over in a UVA-SDSU matchup on Monday. I guess we'll just have to settle for winning the regional the semi-easy way.
A lot of credit goes to hitting that was clutcher than clutch. Ernie Clement delivered the game-winning hit on Saturday and almost the whole lineup made Sunday happen, but for my money the guys who won this regional are Connor Jones and Brandon Waddell. This simply doesn't happen if they don't both pitch into the eighth, combine for sixteen innings, and allow one lousy run each. UVA will advance through the tournament as long as those two pitch lights-out, and be eliminated when they don't.
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I have yet to exult in UVA's 22nd national championship, so: woohoo tennis! Five schools have won multiple national championships this season - UConn, Colorado, Ohio State, Stanford, and, of course, because I wouldn't mention it otherwise, UVA. Three years ago, men's tennis was a program with a rep for being that program that couldn't get over the hump. Now with two trophies, they've taken their place in the elite. Hopefully for quite some time.
I was also going to write about consecutive trophies, but I forgot it was two years ago they won their first. I realized I was thinking of Danielle Collins's individual singles championship last year. Silly me, mixing up our powerhouse programs like that. It didn't help my muddled situation that Ryan Shane won the singles title this year. All these damn trophies are so confusing to keep track of. How I long for the simplicity of life in Blacksburg and the clean, uncluttered trophy cases and freed-up postseason schedules. Oh wait no I don't.
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-- Don't you love when you watch this really long drawn-out recruitment that takes years and then the subject of said recruitment sticks around for one season and then boogies? Jamil Kamara's name first popped up when he was a high school freshman at Princess Anne. His full UVA career: one catch, six yards. Unlike the loss of Greyson Lambert I don't really chalk this up to the fact that this program is the result of a crash between a fireworks truck and an oil tank. I guess you could argue that there's excessive WR depth and that the inmates are just a little too much in charge of the asylum when it comes to redshirting decisions. I'd happily concede both points. It's just that Kamara's overinflated opinion of his readiness is why he didn't redshirt last year in the first place, and why he'll be suiting up elsewhere next year.
-- I know the baseball team's camo unis have a near-perfect win-loss record. I still hate them. Especially when the home whites are so damn classy-looking and they finally got a set of decent road grays. I'd just hate to think we might finally win a national title and all the lasting images of the team that does so would be in brown.
Thursday, May 28, 2015
lake elsinore regional preview
Not-so-fun fact: The last time UVA baseball played in an NCAA regional that was 1) not in Charlottesville and 2) not in the Pacific time zone was 1996. Every UVA placement in the Brian O'Connor era has either been as a host or in California, except for the one trip to Corvallis, Oregon. Geographic constraints, I suppose. You can send three teams on short plane rides, or two teams on bus rides and one team to the opposite coast. That's how the selection committee thinks, and thus UVA is taking another trip to the desert to face three teams that could practically ride their bikes to the playground.
Last time that happened, though, things went pretty well. So we'll see. There's a semi-familiar opponent in San Diego State, last seen futilely throwing Stephen Strasburg at the Hoos' lineup. UC-Irvine isn't here, but there's another UC-Somebody in their place. And the Hoos' actual matchup is a fascinating story. Oh, and if UVA gets past the regional, they won't leave the state, and the #1 overall seed likely awaits. So the storylines are here, the teams are here, let's see what it all entails.
#1 seed - UCSB Gauchos
Conference: Big West
Record: 40-15 (16-8)
RPI: #20
Lineup:
C: Campbell Wear (.195-1-21)
1B: Robby Nesovic (.344-0-39)
2B: Woody Woodward (.295-0-12)
3B: Peter Maris (.300-2-24)
SS: Clay Fisher (.247-0-18)
LF: Cameron Newell (.380-3-31)
CF: Andrew Calica (.315-1-18)
RF: Luke Swenson (.307-0-29)
DH: Paddy O'Brien (.400-2-18)
SP: Dillon Tate (8-4, 2.08, 100 Ks)
SP: Justin Jacome (7-4, 2.53, 91 Ks)
SP: Shane Bieber (8-4, 2.26, 95 Ks)
SP: Domenic Mazza (6-1, 2.69, 72 Ks)
RP: Robby Nesovic (1-0, 2.70, 13 Ks)
RP: Kyle Nelson (3-1, 0.80, 31 Ks)
RP: Connor Baits (1-0, 4.32, 11 Ks)
RP: Chris Clements (3-0, 2.16, 10 Ks)
Lineup notes: The DH position here is rotated heavily among a few different players, and substituted liberally. O'Brien is the best hitter of that otherwise not real inspiring group, but Billy Fredrick does have a very patient batting eye, with 18 walks in 72 plate appearances. Some lineup shuffling was necessary when 1B Dalton Kelly broke his leg in April.
If talking about formidable #1 seeds to try and get past, UVA could hardly have landed in a more favorable regional. UCSB is a host instead of a 2 seed somewhere because the Big West is legitimately a tough conference; the higher-RPI teams that aren't hosting are in legitimately bad conferences.
Like any 40-win team, UCSB has some high-quality bats in their lineup. Unlike most #1 seeds, it's not a murderer's row. The clear best hitter in the lineup is Cameron Newell, the Big West co-POY. Newell, along with Andrew Calica and Luke Swenson, is part of a very sure-handed outfield; Newell and Calica had zero errors this season and Calica has never committed one in his career. Calica's a very tough player to put out; he's second on the team in walks and fast on the basepaths with 14 stolen bases against only four times caught.
The top six or seven in the very flexible batting lineup (any Gaucho player might hit in almost any slot, and even Calica, who had a 37-game on-base streak to open the season, has batted as low as eighth) are generally at least solid hitters, but there are some weak points, particularly sub-Mendoza catcher Campbell Wear. There's not a lot of home run power, though - no Gaucho has more than three - so they bunt and send baserunners frequently. (Sounds like someone I remember from the last California trip.)
UCSB's real strength is on the mound. Any one of four starters could take the mound and be a major threat to shut you down. Dillon Tate is one of the country's elite pitchers and a very likely top-five pick in the upcoming MLB draft, possibly even #1. (Sounds like someone I remember from the last California trip.) Tate changes speeds on his fastball, sometimes cranking it up near 96 or 97 or dropping it as low as 91. His slider is a nasty strikeout pitch, and his well-developed changeup isn't instantly deadly but as a third pitch it's a big reason he's projected so high.
The next two guys on the list are no picnic either. Justin Jacome and Shane Bieber each pitched very deep into games this year, averaging over 7 1/3 innings per start. Jacome's control is exquisite, walking just nine batters in 111.1 innings. Fourth in line is Domenic Mazza, mostly a weekday starter and occasional reliever, but then, weekday starter doesn't mean quite the same as it does in a power conference like the ACC. Mazza beat fellow regional member USC twice this season. He'll likely give UCSB an enormous advantage on Sunday this weekend.
This is a beatable team if you can hit them. Easier said than done. On a 1-to-10 scale for chances of getting out of the regional alive, D1Baseball gave UCSB a 3. Ouch. But the Gauchos will have the advantage in any close game, particularly in, say, the sixth inning when you're starting to warm someone up and their starter is still trucking. This is an evenly-matched regional by a lot of metrics, and UCSB's bats strike fear into nobody. But it's never a bad idea to bet on the team with all the pitching.
#2 seed - USC Trojans
Conference: Pac-12
Record: 37-19 (18-12)
RPI: #23
C: Garrett Stubbs (.330-1-22)
1B: Jeremy Martinez (.290-1-35)
2B: Dante Flores (.315-5-41)
3B: Blake Lacey (.295-0-34)
SS: Reggie Southall (.230-1-18)
LF: Bobby Stahel (.379-4-31)
CF: Timmy Robinson (.298-6-50)
RF: A.J. Ramirez (.268-8-39)
DH: David Oppenheim (.281-3-24)
SP: Kyle Twomey (7-2, 2.81, 65 Ks)
SP: Mitch Hart (7-3, 3.67, 48 Ks)
RP: Kyle Davis (3-2, 4.23, 43 Ks)
RP: Tyler Gilbert (4-2, 2.97, 62 Ks)
RP: Brent Wheatley (4-3, 3.68, 62 Ks)
RP: Marc Huberman (6-4, 2.37, 48 Ks)
RP: Bernardo Flores (3-1, 3.38, 44 Ks)
RP: Brooks Kriske (2-1, 2.45, 26 Ks)
Lineup notes: This is a very stable lineup with few changes day-to-day, but USC does platoon at shortstop between Southall and Angelo La Bruna. It's nothing to do with lefty-righty stuff; they're both switch-hitters. They're just both not that good, is all.
USC is a helluva story. Picture Duke, post Coach-K, perpetually finishing 10th in the conference and occasionally scraping an NIT bid as a 6-seed, for a decade, and you get an idea of what Trojan baseball has been like. After uber-legend Rod Dedeaux retired in the '80s after earning more rings than he had fingers to put them, Mike Gillespie (you see how this keeps coming back to times past?) ran the team for another 20+ years, scoring another national title in 1998. But Gillespie "retired" after missing the tournament three out of four years,** USC hired his son-in-law for whatever reason, and proceeded to disappear.
The Trojans are back, and they'll be UVA's opponent on Friday. The dominance has passed to their neighbor UCLA, the national #1 seed, but USC is one of a handful of very respectable Pac-12 teams this year, tying for third in the conference with Cal and ASU. Their lineup hits for average about as well as 1 seed UCSB, but there's more power in it. Quite a bit more. A.J. Ramirez only hits .268, but he leads the team in doubles (14) and home runs (8).
The triples leader, though, is Bobby Stahel, an interesting player to watch. He's got speed and the best bat on the Trojan team. D1Baseball's regional preview points out that he's made several web-gem diving catches in the outfield, too, and then goes on to say, "he has been in a handful of rundowns, but has been known to get caught sleeping and get doubled up on flyouts as well." Wheeee basepath adventures.
USC also sports probably the regional's best catcher, which is actually saying something as there's a lot of quality behind the plate in Lake Elsinore. Garrett Stubbs has cut down over half the baserunners trying to steal on him, an important weapon because most of the teams in this regional are pretty stealy. That includes USC most of all, as the Trojans have stolen 93 bases this year, about one and a half per game. Stubbs himself, along with Timmy Robinson, leads the way there - both have 19. He's also one of USC's only three .300 hitters and their best bunter.
The Trojans almost certainly have the regional's best bullpen (though that's partly a function of UCSB's starting rotation that renders the bullpen halfway moot.) There's a lot of pitchers they can call on in later innings. This is the likely reason they've made the interesting choice of Kyle Davis as the Friday starter against UVA - they can hold back Kyle Twomey and Mitch Hart for the later games of the weekend, and quickly yank Davis for a reliever if he gets into trouble.
This makes for a pretty good matchup for UVA in the first game, as much as a regional three seed could say that. USC's lineup is good, and if you make a mistake they'll drill it and then steal their way to scoring position, but good pitching should also be able to quiet them down. Davis allows opposing hitters to bat .297. It might be fun to let Stahel walk just to see if it's true he comes from the run-til-you're-out school of baserunning, but really, he and Stubbs are the guys you want to send back to the dugout early. USC won't pinch-hit much, if at all, so a good scouting report on the hitters they send up goes a long way. A very plausible scenario is for UVA to beat USC on Friday and then lose to Dillon Tate on Saturday, so a possible return game on Sunday with the Trojans can be made easier by jumping on Davis very early and forcing the Trojans to burn some bullpen and neutralize somewhat the huge advantage they have on UVA in that department.
**Gillespie immediately found a job managing in short-season A ball and then went right back to college coaching, so you can read "retired" as "politely kicked out for some dumb reason."
#4 seed - San Diego State Aztecs
Conference: Mountain West
Record: 40-21 (19-10)
RPI: #76
C: Seby Zavala (.283-14-64)
1B: Andrew Brown (.299-1-31)
2B: Alan Trejo (.251-1-16)
3B: Ty France (.346-4-48)
SS: Danny Sheehan (.310-6-45)
LF: Spencer Thornton (.328-2-20)
CF: Steven Pallares (.341-8-47)
RF: Chase Calabuig (.320-1-25)
DH: Justin Wylie (.245-3-16)
SP: Bubba Derby (7-4, 3.35, 122 Ks)
SP: Mark Seyler (9-2, 2.80, 78 Ks)
SP: Marcus Reyes (7-3, 4.20, 45 Ks)
SP: Cody Thompson (4-4, 4.13, 66 Ks)
RP: C.J. Saylor (3-3, 4.86, 42 Ks)
RP: Brian Heldman (3-1, 3.44, 28 Ks)
RP: Brett Seeburger (1-0, 7.01, 26 Ks)
RP: Jacob Erickson (2-1, 3.14, 23 Ks)
Lineup notes: In the MWC tournament, SDSU lost the first game, then made a lineup shuffle that rotated Brown to DH, Wylie in LF, Thornton in RF, Calabuig in CF, and Pallares to 1B. They kept on winning til they lifted a trophy, and stuck with that lineup the rest of the tourney. I have no idea whether it'll stick this weekend.
This team, lineup-wise, isn't that different from USC. Other than the musical chairs noted above, it's a stable lineup with a decent amount of power and solid contact. Unlike the other three teams in the regional, with Newell, Stahel, and Matt Thaiss, they don't have an obvious elephant in the lineup, but there's good balance at the top and a very solid knack for getting on base. Bunch of guys with double-digit HBP, and Chase Calabuig, who is not one of them, has 37 walks.
Is it a good enough lineup to touch up UCSB's rotation, though? Eh....the MWC is a one-bid league, so evaluating their hitting always has to take that into account. They likely won't get the pleasure of facing Dillon Tate, but we've been over this. Whoever UCSB throws on Friday is probably better than anyone SDSU faced in-conference.
The Aztecs' pitching, though - eesh. UCSB has the starters. USC has the pen. UVA has - well, some draftable talent, at least a star or two. SDSU, though, probably has three pitchers you'd really trust in postseason play. Bubba Derby is one; his 122 strikeouts are more than anyone else in this regional, but he knows how to find the dirt, too. Mark Seyler is steadier and maybe more effective overall; it was Derby who was rocked in the MWC tourney opener. Brian Heldman is OK out of the pen. Jacob Erickson has the lowest ERA among regular relievers, but plunks a batter every four innings.
We've seen worse lineups from #4 seeds, and if they get it together all at once they could at least make it to Sunday. But a pitching staff like this isn't winning any regionals, ever.
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So, what's the strategy for UVA this weekend? Settle in for story time. When I was about, oh, 10, 11, or so, I was at summer camp playing some kind of organized tag or capture the flag or obstacle course game, whatever it was. This camp had a creek at the bottom of a steeply sloped gully of sorts. During the course of this game I was running pell-mell towards the creek and found myself there before I thought I'd get there, and then found myself sprinting just as fast down the gully. Bit scary, but I decided my best chance of not tumbling ass over teakettle into the bottom was just to keep running and try to put my foot somewhere safe with each step. If I tried to stop and go more deliberately, I'd definitely crash. I ended up still upright at the bottom with enough momentum to get me halfway back up the other side before I had to do any real climbing work.
Why I remember this I don't know. But this is pretty much how UVA has to approach this regional. And BOC knows it. He knows what he's doing with pitching staffs, and remember this is the guy that held Danny Hultzen for Saturday and let Robert Morey try to beat Stephen Strasburg. He definitely believes in the rule that your ace goes in game 2 no matter what. Not this year, though. Connor Jones is throwing against USC, Brandon Waddell, presumably, gets the next call. BOC has said, more or less, that Josh Sborz goes whenever he's needed. We're going all out to win the first one and then the next one and so on - no chess matches. The best chance we have is to go 3-0. The longer this gets stretched out, the faster our chances swirl the drain.
Bigger-picture, this is a fascinating regional. The top three seeds have RPIs of 20, 23, and 21. The teams have a lot in common. They play the college-ball style to various degrees - bunts and steals. They all have good catchers who can nullify that game. All but SDSU have a single big-time hitter surrounded by a solid supporting cast; SDSU just has a bit more balance at the top. Oh, and the host is the second-farthest team from the stadium site, since they don't have lights of their own. It'll feel more like a true neutral site, except that orange and blue probably won't be well-represented. And the prize: a trip across town to play the national #1 seed, barring a wild upset.
And because 2009-all-over-again won't go away, if there is a wild upset, the likely beneficiary, and therefore the likely super-regional host if UVA pulls off this regional .... is Ole Miss. Somewhere, Tim Weiser is cackling.
Last time that happened, though, things went pretty well. So we'll see. There's a semi-familiar opponent in San Diego State, last seen futilely throwing Stephen Strasburg at the Hoos' lineup. UC-Irvine isn't here, but there's another UC-Somebody in their place. And the Hoos' actual matchup is a fascinating story. Oh, and if UVA gets past the regional, they won't leave the state, and the #1 overall seed likely awaits. So the storylines are here, the teams are here, let's see what it all entails.
#1 seed - UCSB Gauchos
Record: 40-15 (16-8)
RPI: #20
Lineup:
C: Campbell Wear (.195-1-21)
1B: Robby Nesovic (.344-0-39)
2B: Woody Woodward (.295-0-12)
3B: Peter Maris (.300-2-24)
SS: Clay Fisher (.247-0-18)
LF: Cameron Newell (.380-3-31)
CF: Andrew Calica (.315-1-18)
RF: Luke Swenson (.307-0-29)
DH: Paddy O'Brien (.400-2-18)
SP: Dillon Tate (8-4, 2.08, 100 Ks)
SP: Justin Jacome (7-4, 2.53, 91 Ks)
SP: Shane Bieber (8-4, 2.26, 95 Ks)
SP: Domenic Mazza (6-1, 2.69, 72 Ks)
RP: Robby Nesovic (1-0, 2.70, 13 Ks)
RP: Kyle Nelson (3-1, 0.80, 31 Ks)
RP: Connor Baits (1-0, 4.32, 11 Ks)
RP: Chris Clements (3-0, 2.16, 10 Ks)
Lineup notes: The DH position here is rotated heavily among a few different players, and substituted liberally. O'Brien is the best hitter of that otherwise not real inspiring group, but Billy Fredrick does have a very patient batting eye, with 18 walks in 72 plate appearances. Some lineup shuffling was necessary when 1B Dalton Kelly broke his leg in April.
If talking about formidable #1 seeds to try and get past, UVA could hardly have landed in a more favorable regional. UCSB is a host instead of a 2 seed somewhere because the Big West is legitimately a tough conference; the higher-RPI teams that aren't hosting are in legitimately bad conferences.
Like any 40-win team, UCSB has some high-quality bats in their lineup. Unlike most #1 seeds, it's not a murderer's row. The clear best hitter in the lineup is Cameron Newell, the Big West co-POY. Newell, along with Andrew Calica and Luke Swenson, is part of a very sure-handed outfield; Newell and Calica had zero errors this season and Calica has never committed one in his career. Calica's a very tough player to put out; he's second on the team in walks and fast on the basepaths with 14 stolen bases against only four times caught.
The top six or seven in the very flexible batting lineup (any Gaucho player might hit in almost any slot, and even Calica, who had a 37-game on-base streak to open the season, has batted as low as eighth) are generally at least solid hitters, but there are some weak points, particularly sub-Mendoza catcher Campbell Wear. There's not a lot of home run power, though - no Gaucho has more than three - so they bunt and send baserunners frequently. (Sounds like someone I remember from the last California trip.)
UCSB's real strength is on the mound. Any one of four starters could take the mound and be a major threat to shut you down. Dillon Tate is one of the country's elite pitchers and a very likely top-five pick in the upcoming MLB draft, possibly even #1. (Sounds like someone I remember from the last California trip.) Tate changes speeds on his fastball, sometimes cranking it up near 96 or 97 or dropping it as low as 91. His slider is a nasty strikeout pitch, and his well-developed changeup isn't instantly deadly but as a third pitch it's a big reason he's projected so high.
The next two guys on the list are no picnic either. Justin Jacome and Shane Bieber each pitched very deep into games this year, averaging over 7 1/3 innings per start. Jacome's control is exquisite, walking just nine batters in 111.1 innings. Fourth in line is Domenic Mazza, mostly a weekday starter and occasional reliever, but then, weekday starter doesn't mean quite the same as it does in a power conference like the ACC. Mazza beat fellow regional member USC twice this season. He'll likely give UCSB an enormous advantage on Sunday this weekend.
This is a beatable team if you can hit them. Easier said than done. On a 1-to-10 scale for chances of getting out of the regional alive, D1Baseball gave UCSB a 3. Ouch. But the Gauchos will have the advantage in any close game, particularly in, say, the sixth inning when you're starting to warm someone up and their starter is still trucking. This is an evenly-matched regional by a lot of metrics, and UCSB's bats strike fear into nobody. But it's never a bad idea to bet on the team with all the pitching.
#2 seed - USC Trojans
Record: 37-19 (18-12)
RPI: #23
C: Garrett Stubbs (.330-1-22)
1B: Jeremy Martinez (.290-1-35)
2B: Dante Flores (.315-5-41)
3B: Blake Lacey (.295-0-34)
SS: Reggie Southall (.230-1-18)
LF: Bobby Stahel (.379-4-31)
CF: Timmy Robinson (.298-6-50)
RF: A.J. Ramirez (.268-8-39)
DH: David Oppenheim (.281-3-24)
SP: Kyle Twomey (7-2, 2.81, 65 Ks)
SP: Mitch Hart (7-3, 3.67, 48 Ks)
RP: Kyle Davis (3-2, 4.23, 43 Ks)
RP: Tyler Gilbert (4-2, 2.97, 62 Ks)
RP: Brent Wheatley (4-3, 3.68, 62 Ks)
RP: Marc Huberman (6-4, 2.37, 48 Ks)
RP: Bernardo Flores (3-1, 3.38, 44 Ks)
RP: Brooks Kriske (2-1, 2.45, 26 Ks)
Lineup notes: This is a very stable lineup with few changes day-to-day, but USC does platoon at shortstop between Southall and Angelo La Bruna. It's nothing to do with lefty-righty stuff; they're both switch-hitters. They're just both not that good, is all.
USC is a helluva story. Picture Duke, post Coach-K, perpetually finishing 10th in the conference and occasionally scraping an NIT bid as a 6-seed, for a decade, and you get an idea of what Trojan baseball has been like. After uber-legend Rod Dedeaux retired in the '80s after earning more rings than he had fingers to put them, Mike Gillespie (you see how this keeps coming back to times past?) ran the team for another 20+ years, scoring another national title in 1998. But Gillespie "retired" after missing the tournament three out of four years,** USC hired his son-in-law for whatever reason, and proceeded to disappear.
The Trojans are back, and they'll be UVA's opponent on Friday. The dominance has passed to their neighbor UCLA, the national #1 seed, but USC is one of a handful of very respectable Pac-12 teams this year, tying for third in the conference with Cal and ASU. Their lineup hits for average about as well as 1 seed UCSB, but there's more power in it. Quite a bit more. A.J. Ramirez only hits .268, but he leads the team in doubles (14) and home runs (8).
The triples leader, though, is Bobby Stahel, an interesting player to watch. He's got speed and the best bat on the Trojan team. D1Baseball's regional preview points out that he's made several web-gem diving catches in the outfield, too, and then goes on to say, "he has been in a handful of rundowns, but has been known to get caught sleeping and get doubled up on flyouts as well." Wheeee basepath adventures.
USC also sports probably the regional's best catcher, which is actually saying something as there's a lot of quality behind the plate in Lake Elsinore. Garrett Stubbs has cut down over half the baserunners trying to steal on him, an important weapon because most of the teams in this regional are pretty stealy. That includes USC most of all, as the Trojans have stolen 93 bases this year, about one and a half per game. Stubbs himself, along with Timmy Robinson, leads the way there - both have 19. He's also one of USC's only three .300 hitters and their best bunter.
The Trojans almost certainly have the regional's best bullpen (though that's partly a function of UCSB's starting rotation that renders the bullpen halfway moot.) There's a lot of pitchers they can call on in later innings. This is the likely reason they've made the interesting choice of Kyle Davis as the Friday starter against UVA - they can hold back Kyle Twomey and Mitch Hart for the later games of the weekend, and quickly yank Davis for a reliever if he gets into trouble.
This makes for a pretty good matchup for UVA in the first game, as much as a regional three seed could say that. USC's lineup is good, and if you make a mistake they'll drill it and then steal their way to scoring position, but good pitching should also be able to quiet them down. Davis allows opposing hitters to bat .297. It might be fun to let Stahel walk just to see if it's true he comes from the run-til-you're-out school of baserunning, but really, he and Stubbs are the guys you want to send back to the dugout early. USC won't pinch-hit much, if at all, so a good scouting report on the hitters they send up goes a long way. A very plausible scenario is for UVA to beat USC on Friday and then lose to Dillon Tate on Saturday, so a possible return game on Sunday with the Trojans can be made easier by jumping on Davis very early and forcing the Trojans to burn some bullpen and neutralize somewhat the huge advantage they have on UVA in that department.
**Gillespie immediately found a job managing in short-season A ball and then went right back to college coaching, so you can read "retired" as "politely kicked out for some dumb reason."
#4 seed - San Diego State Aztecs
Record: 40-21 (19-10)
RPI: #76
C: Seby Zavala (.283-14-64)
1B: Andrew Brown (.299-1-31)
2B: Alan Trejo (.251-1-16)
3B: Ty France (.346-4-48)
SS: Danny Sheehan (.310-6-45)
LF: Spencer Thornton (.328-2-20)
CF: Steven Pallares (.341-8-47)
RF: Chase Calabuig (.320-1-25)
DH: Justin Wylie (.245-3-16)
SP: Bubba Derby (7-4, 3.35, 122 Ks)
SP: Mark Seyler (9-2, 2.80, 78 Ks)
SP: Marcus Reyes (7-3, 4.20, 45 Ks)
SP: Cody Thompson (4-4, 4.13, 66 Ks)
RP: C.J. Saylor (3-3, 4.86, 42 Ks)
RP: Brian Heldman (3-1, 3.44, 28 Ks)
RP: Brett Seeburger (1-0, 7.01, 26 Ks)
RP: Jacob Erickson (2-1, 3.14, 23 Ks)
Lineup notes: In the MWC tournament, SDSU lost the first game, then made a lineup shuffle that rotated Brown to DH, Wylie in LF, Thornton in RF, Calabuig in CF, and Pallares to 1B. They kept on winning til they lifted a trophy, and stuck with that lineup the rest of the tourney. I have no idea whether it'll stick this weekend.
This team, lineup-wise, isn't that different from USC. Other than the musical chairs noted above, it's a stable lineup with a decent amount of power and solid contact. Unlike the other three teams in the regional, with Newell, Stahel, and Matt Thaiss, they don't have an obvious elephant in the lineup, but there's good balance at the top and a very solid knack for getting on base. Bunch of guys with double-digit HBP, and Chase Calabuig, who is not one of them, has 37 walks.
Is it a good enough lineup to touch up UCSB's rotation, though? Eh....the MWC is a one-bid league, so evaluating their hitting always has to take that into account. They likely won't get the pleasure of facing Dillon Tate, but we've been over this. Whoever UCSB throws on Friday is probably better than anyone SDSU faced in-conference.
The Aztecs' pitching, though - eesh. UCSB has the starters. USC has the pen. UVA has - well, some draftable talent, at least a star or two. SDSU, though, probably has three pitchers you'd really trust in postseason play. Bubba Derby is one; his 122 strikeouts are more than anyone else in this regional, but he knows how to find the dirt, too. Mark Seyler is steadier and maybe more effective overall; it was Derby who was rocked in the MWC tourney opener. Brian Heldman is OK out of the pen. Jacob Erickson has the lowest ERA among regular relievers, but plunks a batter every four innings.
We've seen worse lineups from #4 seeds, and if they get it together all at once they could at least make it to Sunday. But a pitching staff like this isn't winning any regionals, ever.
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So, what's the strategy for UVA this weekend? Settle in for story time. When I was about, oh, 10, 11, or so, I was at summer camp playing some kind of organized tag or capture the flag or obstacle course game, whatever it was. This camp had a creek at the bottom of a steeply sloped gully of sorts. During the course of this game I was running pell-mell towards the creek and found myself there before I thought I'd get there, and then found myself sprinting just as fast down the gully. Bit scary, but I decided my best chance of not tumbling ass over teakettle into the bottom was just to keep running and try to put my foot somewhere safe with each step. If I tried to stop and go more deliberately, I'd definitely crash. I ended up still upright at the bottom with enough momentum to get me halfway back up the other side before I had to do any real climbing work.
Why I remember this I don't know. But this is pretty much how UVA has to approach this regional. And BOC knows it. He knows what he's doing with pitching staffs, and remember this is the guy that held Danny Hultzen for Saturday and let Robert Morey try to beat Stephen Strasburg. He definitely believes in the rule that your ace goes in game 2 no matter what. Not this year, though. Connor Jones is throwing against USC, Brandon Waddell, presumably, gets the next call. BOC has said, more or less, that Josh Sborz goes whenever he's needed. We're going all out to win the first one and then the next one and so on - no chess matches. The best chance we have is to go 3-0. The longer this gets stretched out, the faster our chances swirl the drain.
Bigger-picture, this is a fascinating regional. The top three seeds have RPIs of 20, 23, and 21. The teams have a lot in common. They play the college-ball style to various degrees - bunts and steals. They all have good catchers who can nullify that game. All but SDSU have a single big-time hitter surrounded by a solid supporting cast; SDSU just has a bit more balance at the top. Oh, and the host is the second-farthest team from the stadium site, since they don't have lights of their own. It'll feel more like a true neutral site, except that orange and blue probably won't be well-represented. And the prize: a trip across town to play the national #1 seed, barring a wild upset.
And because 2009-all-over-again won't go away, if there is a wild upset, the likely beneficiary, and therefore the likely super-regional host if UVA pulls off this regional .... is Ole Miss. Somewhere, Tim Weiser is cackling.
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
2014 hoops preview: ACC returners
Admit it: you saw that header and went OH GOODY. And, "why can't it be basketball season RIGHT NOW?", followed by a prayer of thanks to all the baby angels for Tony Bennett. I know how you roll.
Well, you can't have actual basketball for another three-ish weeks, but you can have previews. I won't be doing full-fledged team previews anymore, so I've got an idea or two spinning in the hopper about how to preview the ACC instead. This is a basic look at the returning and departed players from the conference.
Using KenPom (what else?) O-ratings, I slapped together a number I'm calling Impact Score. It's.... not totally scientifically rigorous, but it's kinda neat anyway and useful enough. All it is, is this:
(O-rating - 100) * Minutes %age * (Possession %age / 0.2)
That assumes that the average player has an O-rating of 100, meaning he generates a point for every one of "his" possessions. Multiply the difference by the percentage of available minutes he played. Then multiply again by a proportion generated by his possession percentage, i.e., the percentage of his team's possessions that he ends while he's on the floor (say, by scoring, or turning the ball over.) This should be around 20%, what with there being five guys on the floor and all. Higher, and he's having a proportionally greater impact, and vice versa.
Example: A player with an O-rating of 110, who plays 20 minutes a game** and ends 22% of his team's possessions will have an Impact Score of 5.5.
It's not perfect, but it can be illustrative at times. C.J. Fair, widely considered a top player in the league, and voted to the first team last year, had an O-rating under 100, and thus a negative IS. Sure, he scored a ton - and he needed five zillion shots to do it. The guy was the quintessential volume scorer. It's no accident he went undrafted while Joe Harris got a guaranteed contract. IS suggests that Syracuse will be better off without Fair.
This is, by the way, purely for the offensive side of the ball, in case you hadn't noticed. Akil Mitchell is just incredibly pedestrian in this scoring system, but obviously, that wasn't the end of the court where he'll be missed. For this reason, I've added up each team's IS's but warn you that it's only mildly instructive to do so. It's really about the players.
**I realize 20 mpg is not precisely the same as 50% of available minutes. Just roll with it for simplicity's sake.
Here are the total scores for each team from 2013-14:
Duke: 90.43
Louisville: 78.73
Pittsburgh: 58.93
Syracuse: 53.41
Notre Dame: 48.56
Boston College: 40.58
Virginia: 39.70
NC State: 32.57
North Carolina: 32.34
Florida State: 26.16
Clemson: 17.26
Miami: 16.76
Wake Forest: 7.04
Georgia Tech: 2.86
Virginia Tech: -13.71
Obviously, that doesn't correlate too well with actual success, but it does work reasonably hand-in-hand with each team's O-rating. BC didn't finish in the same hemisphere as UVA in real life, but their KenPom O-rating was 30th in the country to UVA's 21st. So the similar team IS's make sense viewed in that lens.
Now for the teams in order of returning IS:
Duke: 41.11
Louisville: 38.66
Notre Dame: 37.00
Pittsburgh: 30.32
Virginia: 30.06
Syracuse: 27.01
Boston College: 26.83
North Carolina: 26.31
Clemson: 10.44
Florida State: 9.54
NC State: 0.52
Miami: -3.61
Georgia Tech: -9.97
Virginia Tech: -10.17
Wake Forest: -14.50
Yes, VT committed addition by subtraction, by losing a couple players to transfers, particularly Official Total Stiff, Trevor Thompson, who took his lousy shooting and turnover machinery to Ohio State. Elsewhere in the state, UVA is among the teams with the highest percentage of quality returning players. Only Carolina and Notre Dame fare better there - though teams like Duke and Louisville bring back enough talent to be called favorites.
For reference, before we go team by team, here's the top 20 players from 2013-14, whether returning or not (and for that matter, ignoring teams that are no longer here):
1. T.J. Warren (NCSt.) - 19.69
2. Marcus Paige (UNC) - 19.55
3. Pat Connaughton (ND) - 19.32
4. Rodney Hood (Duke) - 18.24
5. Olivier Hanlan (BC) - 16.22
6. Russ Smith (UL) - 15.82
7. Quinn Cook (Duke) - 15.59
8. Trevor Cooney (SU) - 15.39
9. Rion Brown (Mia.) - 15.25
10. Tyler Ennis (SU) - 14.73
11. Coron Williams (WF) - 14.72
12. Lamar Patterson (Pitt) - 14.55
13. Montrezl Harrell (UL) - 14.46
14. Jabari Parker (Duke) - 14.21
15. Talib Zanna (Pitt) - 14.06
16. Okaro White (FSU) - 13.49
17. K.J. McDaniels (CU) - 13.43
18. Jerian Grant (ND) - 13.36
19. Luke Hancock (UL) - 13.06
20. Amile Jefferson (Duke) - 12.97
21. Malcolm Brogdon (UVA) - 12.64
(ok i lied that's 21)
Remember, this isn't the 20 best players, it's the 20 most impactful, as a combination of offensive efficiency and high usage.
Just for S&Gs, the bottom 10:
Madison Jones (WF): -9.65
Chris Bolden (GT): -7.26
Trevor Thompson (VT): -6.75
Joey Van Zegeren (VT): -5.97
Adonis Filer (CU): -5.39
Nate Britt (UNC): -5.08
Devin Wilson (VT): -4.81
Davon Reed (Mia.): -4.80
Kyle Washington (NCSt.): -4.41
Jarquez Smith (FSU): -3.87
All is not lost for these guys, of course. Some are in fact legitimately bad (or just not ACC-level) but Britt was a pretty hot-stuff recruit (they always are at UNC) and Wilson's game passed the eye test and he probably shouldn't be blamed for having been leaned on so hard by a horrendous team.
BOSTON COLLEGE
Key losses: Ryan Anderson (10.46), Joe Rahon (3.23)
Key returners: Olivier Hanlan (16.22), Lonnie Jackson (3.46), Patrick Heckmann (2.67), Eddie Odio (2.33), Garland Owens (2.28)
Losing Anderson to transfer (Arizona) hurts the Eagles, but they get back one of the conference's better scorers and certainly one of the most heavily-relied-upon players in the country in Hanlan, plus an assortment of useful supporting cast members.
CLEMSON
Key losses: K.J. McDaniels (13.43), Adonis Filer (-5.39)
Key returners: Rod Hall (5.49), Damarcus Harrison (4.75), Landry Nnoko (4.29)
McDaniels is a huge loss, but it's balanced by also losing Adonis Filer, the fifth-lowest ranked player in the league; Filer transferred to Florida Atlantic. Clemson is left without a star player for now, but some good pieces remain, and freshman Donte Grantham should be an impact player.
DUKE
Key losses: Rodney Hood (18.24), Jabari Parker (14.21), Andre Dawkins (8.61), Tyler Thornton (7.44)
Key returners: Quinn Cook (15.59), Amile Jefferson (12.97), Rasheed Sulaimon (10.59)
Duke loses enough players to fill out the starting lineup of an ACC contender, but nobody's feeling too sorry for them. Somehow they'll cope. Top freshmen who you'll get sick of hearing about include Tyus Jones, Jahlil Okafor, and Justise Winslow, all one-and-done possibilities.
FLORIDA STATE
Key losses: Okaro White (13.49), Ian Miller (6.84), Robert Gilchrist (-3.72)
Key returners: Aaron Thomas (7.48), Boris Bojanovsky (5.04), Devon Bookert (3.33)
FSU is one of the more slammed teams by graduation, but their returning players are all pretty young with a lot of room to grow, and Gilchrist, while not a total stiff on offense, could be hacked with impunity. FSU isn't in terrible shape, but they'll be a remade team for sure.
GEORGIA TECH
Key losses: Daniel Miller (9.66), Trae Golden (5.63), Kammeon Holsey (2.96),
Key returners: Marcus Georges-Hunt (2.74), Corey Heyward (-3.40), Chris Bolden (-7.26)
This is one of the ugliest situations in the league. GT was already bad, and Georges-Hunt is the only returning player of much worth at all. They've taken some transfers, notably ex-Terp Charles Mitchell, and incoming freshman Tadric Jackson comes in with plenty of hype, but generally their returning players just aren't very good.
LOUISVILLE
Key losses: Russ Smith (15.82), Luke Hancock (13.06), Stephan Van Treese (7.52)
Key returners: Montrezl Harrell (14.46), Wayne Blackshear (8.74), Terry Rozier (7.06), Chris Jones (6.07)
Harrell gets all the pub, but Louisville is rightly considered a top contender because of a pretty deep supporting cast that also returns. It's rare you can lose so much and still bring back so much too - and the incoming freshman class is very deep, with no fewer than five four-star players in it.
MIAMI
Key losses: Rion Brown (15.25), Erik Swoope (5.43), James Kelly (3.83)
Key returners: Manu Lecomte (1.44)
The cupboard's going to be about as bare as that implies. Of a nine-man rotation, Miami lost six, including Kelly to a transfer to Marshall. The Canes will have to lean heavily on an incoming class that includes a pair of touted guards in James Palmer and Ja'Quan Newton, and they'll have K-State transfer Angel Rodriguez getting eligible as well. Rodriguez is probably the main reason the Canes aren't pegged even lower than they are by the experts.
NORTH CAROLINA
Key losses: James Michael McAdoo (3.70), Leslie McDonald (2.33)
Key returners: Marcus Paige (19.55), Brice Johnson (8.37), Kennedy Meeks (5.62), Nate Britt (-5.08)
UNC is the team least affected by attrition in our little analysis here; the losses of McDonald and the wildly overrated McAdoo shouldn't hurt them much, if at all. Marcus Paige is a preseason favorite for POY, and the Heels have their usual crop of ridiculously talented freshmen coming in. That includes top-20 five-stars Theo Pinson and Justin Jackson, and if UNC can't get Nate Britt going, four-star PG Joel Berry can give him a push.
NC STATE
Key losses: T.J. Warren (19.69), Jordan Vandenberg (7.70)
Key returners: Ralston Turner (7.44), Lennard Freeman (3.54), Kyle Washington (-4.41)
Trying to replace Warren will be a unique challenge, but this should be a more well-rounded team this year. It was awfully damn young last year, and the four-star freshman twins Caleb and Cody Martin have Pack fans pretty excited. NC State could defy the idea that losing a ton of impactful minutes means a drop in production and success.
NOTRE DAME
Key losses: Eric Atkins (11.33)
Key returners: Pat Connaughton (19.32), Jerian Grant (13.36), Demetrius Jackson (3.14)
It's astounding, the fact that Grant has such a high IS even after missing a huge chunk of the season with academic issues. It's also fairly misleading; he was absolutely crushing it on offense, but, obviously against the weaker part of the schedule, and would've almost certainly come back to earth. (Especially with two games against UVA.) Still, that's probably an accurate score, considering he probably won't pile up an O-rating of 132 over a full season, but will also play a lot of minute. So it balances out.
PITTSBURGH
Key losses: Lamar Patterson (14.55), Talib Zanna (14.06)
Key returners: James Robinson (11.26), Michael Young (4.48), Durand Johnson (4.27), Cameron Wright (3.28)
Pitt only loses two players - but they're doozies. This is another team that will have to overhaul itself, big time, but also has the tools to do it. Several players were quietly putting up very efficient seasons, but were overshadowed by Pitt's big three. Now that the big three is down to one, there's a lot of opportunity, and little reason to think Pitt will take a major tumble.
SYRACUSE
Key losses: Tyler Ennis (14.73), Jerami Grant (12.37), C.J. Fair (-1.37)
Key returners: Trevor Cooney (15.39), Rakeem Christmas (10.02), Michael Gbinije (3.12)
People look at Syracuse's losses and think "three key players out the door" - I say, two. Fair can join UNC's McAdoo in the overrated bin. Ennis will be a significant loss, as will Grant; the latter should be somewhat replaceable by top-20 recruit Chris McCullough.
VIRGINIA
Key losses: Joe Harris (10.68)
Key returners: Malcolm Brogdon (12.64), London Perrantes (8.07), Anthony Gill (6.61)
You know all this already, I just wanted to put this down on the same page as everything else for a frame of reference. In case you're wondering, nobody else on the team rated over 1.70, which was Tobey.
VIRGINIA TECH
Key losses: C.J. Barksdale (5.20), Marshall Wood (-2.27), Trevor Thompson (-6.75)
Key returners: Will Johnston (1.21), Devin Wilson (-4.81), Joey van Zegeren (-5.97)
Because of Buzz Williams, who represents one of the biggest coaching upgrades in the ACC in a long time, VT is a wild card. But still probably not very good, despite being the only team to add by subtraction - a really tough feat, requiring one to start from a position of horrendous weakness. Some players such as Wilson can probably be counted on to improve, and it's likely Tech won't be the slack-jawed disaster of last season. That just means the conference's cellar will be shored up a little.
WAKE FOREST
Key losses: Coron Williams (14.72), Travis McKie (8.17)
Key returners: Codi Miller-McIntyre (0.94), Devin Thomas (-3.52), Madison Jones (-9.65)
By that list of losses, you'd think Wake wasn't half bad last year; they were way more than half bad because Coron Williams was the best player nobody ever heard of, and nobody ever heard of him because he was criminally underused. With a competent coach and a respectable recruiting class, Wake might well be improved this year, but they also still have the official worst player in the conference. Jones has to cut down on the almost 40% turnover rate to lose that title.
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You've already seen last year's best and worst; let's split that up now into the conference's top 20 returners and top 20 departers - and the bottom 10 too.
Top 20 losses:
1. T.J. Warren (NCSt.) - 19.69
2. Rodney Hood (Duke) - 18.24
3. Russ Smith (UL) - 15.82
4. Rion Brown (Mia.) - 15.25
5. Tyler Ennis (SU) - 14.73
6. Coron Williams (WF) - 14.72
7. Lamar Patterson (Pitt) - 14.55
8. Jabari Parker (Duke) - 14.21
9. Talib Zanna (Pitt) - 14.06
10. Okaro White (FSU) -13.49
11. K.J. McDaniels (CU) - 13.43
12. Luke Hancock (UL) - 13.06
13. Jerami Grant (SU) - 12.37
14. Eric Atkins (ND) - 11.33
15. Joe Harris (UVA) - 10.68
16. Ryan Anderson (BC) - 10.46
17. Daniel Miller (GT) - 9.66
18. Andre Dawkins (Duke) - 8.61
19. Travis McKie (WF) - 8.17
20. Jordan Vandenberg (NCSt.) - 7.70
Top 20 returnees:
1. Marcus Paige (UNC) - 19.55
2. Pat Connaughton (ND) - 19.32
3. Olivier Hanlan (BC) - 16.22
4. Quinn Cook (Duke) - 15.59
5. Trevor Cooney (SU) - 15.39
6. Montrezl Harrell (UL) - 14.46
7. Jerian Grant (ND) - 13.36
8. Amile Jefferson (Duke) - 12.97
9. Malcolm Brogdon (UVA) - 12.64
10. James Robinson (Pitt) - 11.26
11. Rasheed Sulaimon (Duke) - 10.59
12. Rakeem Christmas (SU) - 10.02
13. Wayne Blackshear (UL) - 8.74
14. Brice Johnson (UNC) - 8.37
15. London Perrantes (UVA) - 8.07
16. Aaron Thomas (FSU) - 7.48
17. Ralston Turner (NCSt.) - 7.44
18. Terry Rozier (UL) - 7.06
19. Anthony Gill (UVA) - 6.61
20. Chris Jones (UL) - 6.07
Bottom 10 losses:
1. Trevor Thompson (VT): -6.75
2. Adonis Filer (CU): -5.39
3. Robert Gilchrist (FSU): -3.72
4. Arnaud William Adala Moto (WF): -2.83
5. Garrius Adams (Mia.): -2.66
6. Jason Morris (GT): -2.56
7. Ibrahim Djambo (CU): -2.40
8. Marshall Wood (VT): -2.27
9. Solomon Poole (GT): -2.17
10. Teven Jones (UVA): -2.03
Bottom 10 returnees:
1. Madison Jones (WF): -9.65
2. Chris Bolden (GT): -7.26
3. Joey van Zegeren (VT): -5.97
4. Nate Britt (UNC): -5.08
5. Devin Wilson (VT): -4.81
6. Davon Reed (Mia.): -4.80
7. Kyle Washington (NCSt.): -4.41
8. Jarquez Smith (FSU): -3.87
9. Josh Smith (CU): -3.86
10. Devin Thomas (WF): -3.52
A final imploration once again applies, to not take this as fully predictive, since it's strictly an offense-only tool. But it's a fun exercise, and in some cases, awfully illuminating.
Next week, what you've really been waiting for: our own players themselves. Short version: Everyone is amazing, and Tony Bennett is amazingest.
Well, you can't have actual basketball for another three-ish weeks, but you can have previews. I won't be doing full-fledged team previews anymore, so I've got an idea or two spinning in the hopper about how to preview the ACC instead. This is a basic look at the returning and departed players from the conference.
Using KenPom (what else?) O-ratings, I slapped together a number I'm calling Impact Score. It's.... not totally scientifically rigorous, but it's kinda neat anyway and useful enough. All it is, is this:
(O-rating - 100) * Minutes %age * (Possession %age / 0.2)
That assumes that the average player has an O-rating of 100, meaning he generates a point for every one of "his" possessions. Multiply the difference by the percentage of available minutes he played. Then multiply again by a proportion generated by his possession percentage, i.e., the percentage of his team's possessions that he ends while he's on the floor (say, by scoring, or turning the ball over.) This should be around 20%, what with there being five guys on the floor and all. Higher, and he's having a proportionally greater impact, and vice versa.
Example: A player with an O-rating of 110, who plays 20 minutes a game** and ends 22% of his team's possessions will have an Impact Score of 5.5.
It's not perfect, but it can be illustrative at times. C.J. Fair, widely considered a top player in the league, and voted to the first team last year, had an O-rating under 100, and thus a negative IS. Sure, he scored a ton - and he needed five zillion shots to do it. The guy was the quintessential volume scorer. It's no accident he went undrafted while Joe Harris got a guaranteed contract. IS suggests that Syracuse will be better off without Fair.
This is, by the way, purely for the offensive side of the ball, in case you hadn't noticed. Akil Mitchell is just incredibly pedestrian in this scoring system, but obviously, that wasn't the end of the court where he'll be missed. For this reason, I've added up each team's IS's but warn you that it's only mildly instructive to do so. It's really about the players.
**I realize 20 mpg is not precisely the same as 50% of available minutes. Just roll with it for simplicity's sake.
Here are the total scores for each team from 2013-14:
Duke: 90.43
Louisville: 78.73
Pittsburgh: 58.93
Syracuse: 53.41
Notre Dame: 48.56
Boston College: 40.58
Virginia: 39.70
NC State: 32.57
North Carolina: 32.34
Florida State: 26.16
Clemson: 17.26
Miami: 16.76
Wake Forest: 7.04
Georgia Tech: 2.86
Virginia Tech: -13.71
Obviously, that doesn't correlate too well with actual success, but it does work reasonably hand-in-hand with each team's O-rating. BC didn't finish in the same hemisphere as UVA in real life, but their KenPom O-rating was 30th in the country to UVA's 21st. So the similar team IS's make sense viewed in that lens.
Now for the teams in order of returning IS:
Duke: 41.11
Louisville: 38.66
Notre Dame: 37.00
Pittsburgh: 30.32
Virginia: 30.06
Syracuse: 27.01
Boston College: 26.83
North Carolina: 26.31
Clemson: 10.44
Florida State: 9.54
NC State: 0.52
Miami: -3.61
Georgia Tech: -9.97
Virginia Tech: -10.17
Wake Forest: -14.50
Yes, VT committed addition by subtraction, by losing a couple players to transfers, particularly Official Total Stiff, Trevor Thompson, who took his lousy shooting and turnover machinery to Ohio State. Elsewhere in the state, UVA is among the teams with the highest percentage of quality returning players. Only Carolina and Notre Dame fare better there - though teams like Duke and Louisville bring back enough talent to be called favorites.
For reference, before we go team by team, here's the top 20 players from 2013-14, whether returning or not (and for that matter, ignoring teams that are no longer here):
1. T.J. Warren (NCSt.) - 19.69
2. Marcus Paige (UNC) - 19.55
3. Pat Connaughton (ND) - 19.32
4. Rodney Hood (Duke) - 18.24
5. Olivier Hanlan (BC) - 16.22
6. Russ Smith (UL) - 15.82
7. Quinn Cook (Duke) - 15.59
8. Trevor Cooney (SU) - 15.39
9. Rion Brown (Mia.) - 15.25
10. Tyler Ennis (SU) - 14.73
11. Coron Williams (WF) - 14.72
12. Lamar Patterson (Pitt) - 14.55
13. Montrezl Harrell (UL) - 14.46
14. Jabari Parker (Duke) - 14.21
15. Talib Zanna (Pitt) - 14.06
16. Okaro White (FSU) - 13.49
17. K.J. McDaniels (CU) - 13.43
18. Jerian Grant (ND) - 13.36
19. Luke Hancock (UL) - 13.06
20. Amile Jefferson (Duke) - 12.97
21. Malcolm Brogdon (UVA) - 12.64
(ok i lied that's 21)
Remember, this isn't the 20 best players, it's the 20 most impactful, as a combination of offensive efficiency and high usage.
Just for S&Gs, the bottom 10:
Madison Jones (WF): -9.65
Chris Bolden (GT): -7.26
Trevor Thompson (VT): -6.75
Joey Van Zegeren (VT): -5.97
Adonis Filer (CU): -5.39
Nate Britt (UNC): -5.08
Devin Wilson (VT): -4.81
Davon Reed (Mia.): -4.80
Kyle Washington (NCSt.): -4.41
Jarquez Smith (FSU): -3.87
All is not lost for these guys, of course. Some are in fact legitimately bad (or just not ACC-level) but Britt was a pretty hot-stuff recruit (they always are at UNC) and Wilson's game passed the eye test and he probably shouldn't be blamed for having been leaned on so hard by a horrendous team.
BOSTON COLLEGE
Key losses: Ryan Anderson (10.46), Joe Rahon (3.23)
Key returners: Olivier Hanlan (16.22), Lonnie Jackson (3.46), Patrick Heckmann (2.67), Eddie Odio (2.33), Garland Owens (2.28)
Losing Anderson to transfer (Arizona) hurts the Eagles, but they get back one of the conference's better scorers and certainly one of the most heavily-relied-upon players in the country in Hanlan, plus an assortment of useful supporting cast members.
CLEMSON
Key losses: K.J. McDaniels (13.43), Adonis Filer (-5.39)
Key returners: Rod Hall (5.49), Damarcus Harrison (4.75), Landry Nnoko (4.29)
McDaniels is a huge loss, but it's balanced by also losing Adonis Filer, the fifth-lowest ranked player in the league; Filer transferred to Florida Atlantic. Clemson is left without a star player for now, but some good pieces remain, and freshman Donte Grantham should be an impact player.
DUKE
Key losses: Rodney Hood (18.24), Jabari Parker (14.21), Andre Dawkins (8.61), Tyler Thornton (7.44)
Key returners: Quinn Cook (15.59), Amile Jefferson (12.97), Rasheed Sulaimon (10.59)
Duke loses enough players to fill out the starting lineup of an ACC contender, but nobody's feeling too sorry for them. Somehow they'll cope. Top freshmen who you'll get sick of hearing about include Tyus Jones, Jahlil Okafor, and Justise Winslow, all one-and-done possibilities.
FLORIDA STATE
Key losses: Okaro White (13.49), Ian Miller (6.84), Robert Gilchrist (-3.72)
Key returners: Aaron Thomas (7.48), Boris Bojanovsky (5.04), Devon Bookert (3.33)
FSU is one of the more slammed teams by graduation, but their returning players are all pretty young with a lot of room to grow, and Gilchrist, while not a total stiff on offense, could be hacked with impunity. FSU isn't in terrible shape, but they'll be a remade team for sure.
GEORGIA TECH
Key losses: Daniel Miller (9.66), Trae Golden (5.63), Kammeon Holsey (2.96),
Key returners: Marcus Georges-Hunt (2.74), Corey Heyward (-3.40), Chris Bolden (-7.26)
This is one of the ugliest situations in the league. GT was already bad, and Georges-Hunt is the only returning player of much worth at all. They've taken some transfers, notably ex-Terp Charles Mitchell, and incoming freshman Tadric Jackson comes in with plenty of hype, but generally their returning players just aren't very good.
LOUISVILLE
Key losses: Russ Smith (15.82), Luke Hancock (13.06), Stephan Van Treese (7.52)
Key returners: Montrezl Harrell (14.46), Wayne Blackshear (8.74), Terry Rozier (7.06), Chris Jones (6.07)
Harrell gets all the pub, but Louisville is rightly considered a top contender because of a pretty deep supporting cast that also returns. It's rare you can lose so much and still bring back so much too - and the incoming freshman class is very deep, with no fewer than five four-star players in it.
MIAMI
Key losses: Rion Brown (15.25), Erik Swoope (5.43), James Kelly (3.83)
Key returners: Manu Lecomte (1.44)
The cupboard's going to be about as bare as that implies. Of a nine-man rotation, Miami lost six, including Kelly to a transfer to Marshall. The Canes will have to lean heavily on an incoming class that includes a pair of touted guards in James Palmer and Ja'Quan Newton, and they'll have K-State transfer Angel Rodriguez getting eligible as well. Rodriguez is probably the main reason the Canes aren't pegged even lower than they are by the experts.
NORTH CAROLINA
Key losses: James Michael McAdoo (3.70), Leslie McDonald (2.33)
Key returners: Marcus Paige (19.55), Brice Johnson (8.37), Kennedy Meeks (5.62), Nate Britt (-5.08)
UNC is the team least affected by attrition in our little analysis here; the losses of McDonald and the wildly overrated McAdoo shouldn't hurt them much, if at all. Marcus Paige is a preseason favorite for POY, and the Heels have their usual crop of ridiculously talented freshmen coming in. That includes top-20 five-stars Theo Pinson and Justin Jackson, and if UNC can't get Nate Britt going, four-star PG Joel Berry can give him a push.
NC STATE
Key losses: T.J. Warren (19.69), Jordan Vandenberg (7.70)
Key returners: Ralston Turner (7.44), Lennard Freeman (3.54), Kyle Washington (-4.41)
Trying to replace Warren will be a unique challenge, but this should be a more well-rounded team this year. It was awfully damn young last year, and the four-star freshman twins Caleb and Cody Martin have Pack fans pretty excited. NC State could defy the idea that losing a ton of impactful minutes means a drop in production and success.
NOTRE DAME
Key losses: Eric Atkins (11.33)
Key returners: Pat Connaughton (19.32), Jerian Grant (13.36), Demetrius Jackson (3.14)
It's astounding, the fact that Grant has such a high IS even after missing a huge chunk of the season with academic issues. It's also fairly misleading; he was absolutely crushing it on offense, but, obviously against the weaker part of the schedule, and would've almost certainly come back to earth. (Especially with two games against UVA.) Still, that's probably an accurate score, considering he probably won't pile up an O-rating of 132 over a full season, but will also play a lot of minute. So it balances out.
PITTSBURGH
Key losses: Lamar Patterson (14.55), Talib Zanna (14.06)
Key returners: James Robinson (11.26), Michael Young (4.48), Durand Johnson (4.27), Cameron Wright (3.28)
Pitt only loses two players - but they're doozies. This is another team that will have to overhaul itself, big time, but also has the tools to do it. Several players were quietly putting up very efficient seasons, but were overshadowed by Pitt's big three. Now that the big three is down to one, there's a lot of opportunity, and little reason to think Pitt will take a major tumble.
SYRACUSE
Key losses: Tyler Ennis (14.73), Jerami Grant (12.37), C.J. Fair (-1.37)
Key returners: Trevor Cooney (15.39), Rakeem Christmas (10.02), Michael Gbinije (3.12)
People look at Syracuse's losses and think "three key players out the door" - I say, two. Fair can join UNC's McAdoo in the overrated bin. Ennis will be a significant loss, as will Grant; the latter should be somewhat replaceable by top-20 recruit Chris McCullough.
VIRGINIA
Key losses: Joe Harris (10.68)
Key returners: Malcolm Brogdon (12.64), London Perrantes (8.07), Anthony Gill (6.61)
You know all this already, I just wanted to put this down on the same page as everything else for a frame of reference. In case you're wondering, nobody else on the team rated over 1.70, which was Tobey.
VIRGINIA TECH
Key losses: C.J. Barksdale (5.20), Marshall Wood (-2.27), Trevor Thompson (-6.75)
Key returners: Will Johnston (1.21), Devin Wilson (-4.81), Joey van Zegeren (-5.97)
Because of Buzz Williams, who represents one of the biggest coaching upgrades in the ACC in a long time, VT is a wild card. But still probably not very good, despite being the only team to add by subtraction - a really tough feat, requiring one to start from a position of horrendous weakness. Some players such as Wilson can probably be counted on to improve, and it's likely Tech won't be the slack-jawed disaster of last season. That just means the conference's cellar will be shored up a little.
WAKE FOREST
Key losses: Coron Williams (14.72), Travis McKie (8.17)
Key returners: Codi Miller-McIntyre (0.94), Devin Thomas (-3.52), Madison Jones (-9.65)
By that list of losses, you'd think Wake wasn't half bad last year; they were way more than half bad because Coron Williams was the best player nobody ever heard of, and nobody ever heard of him because he was criminally underused. With a competent coach and a respectable recruiting class, Wake might well be improved this year, but they also still have the official worst player in the conference. Jones has to cut down on the almost 40% turnover rate to lose that title.
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You've already seen last year's best and worst; let's split that up now into the conference's top 20 returners and top 20 departers - and the bottom 10 too.
Top 20 losses:
1. T.J. Warren (NCSt.) - 19.69
2. Rodney Hood (Duke) - 18.24
3. Russ Smith (UL) - 15.82
4. Rion Brown (Mia.) - 15.25
5. Tyler Ennis (SU) - 14.73
6. Coron Williams (WF) - 14.72
7. Lamar Patterson (Pitt) - 14.55
8. Jabari Parker (Duke) - 14.21
9. Talib Zanna (Pitt) - 14.06
10. Okaro White (FSU) -13.49
11. K.J. McDaniels (CU) - 13.43
12. Luke Hancock (UL) - 13.06
13. Jerami Grant (SU) - 12.37
14. Eric Atkins (ND) - 11.33
15. Joe Harris (UVA) - 10.68
16. Ryan Anderson (BC) - 10.46
17. Daniel Miller (GT) - 9.66
18. Andre Dawkins (Duke) - 8.61
19. Travis McKie (WF) - 8.17
20. Jordan Vandenberg (NCSt.) - 7.70
Top 20 returnees:
1. Marcus Paige (UNC) - 19.55
2. Pat Connaughton (ND) - 19.32
3. Olivier Hanlan (BC) - 16.22
4. Quinn Cook (Duke) - 15.59
5. Trevor Cooney (SU) - 15.39
6. Montrezl Harrell (UL) - 14.46
7. Jerian Grant (ND) - 13.36
8. Amile Jefferson (Duke) - 12.97
9. Malcolm Brogdon (UVA) - 12.64
10. James Robinson (Pitt) - 11.26
11. Rasheed Sulaimon (Duke) - 10.59
12. Rakeem Christmas (SU) - 10.02
13. Wayne Blackshear (UL) - 8.74
14. Brice Johnson (UNC) - 8.37
15. London Perrantes (UVA) - 8.07
16. Aaron Thomas (FSU) - 7.48
17. Ralston Turner (NCSt.) - 7.44
18. Terry Rozier (UL) - 7.06
19. Anthony Gill (UVA) - 6.61
20. Chris Jones (UL) - 6.07
Bottom 10 losses:
1. Trevor Thompson (VT): -6.75
2. Adonis Filer (CU): -5.39
3. Robert Gilchrist (FSU): -3.72
4. Arnaud William Adala Moto (WF): -2.83
5. Garrius Adams (Mia.): -2.66
6. Jason Morris (GT): -2.56
7. Ibrahim Djambo (CU): -2.40
8. Marshall Wood (VT): -2.27
9. Solomon Poole (GT): -2.17
10. Teven Jones (UVA): -2.03
Bottom 10 returnees:
1. Madison Jones (WF): -9.65
2. Chris Bolden (GT): -7.26
3. Joey van Zegeren (VT): -5.97
4. Nate Britt (UNC): -5.08
5. Devin Wilson (VT): -4.81
6. Davon Reed (Mia.): -4.80
7. Kyle Washington (NCSt.): -4.41
8. Jarquez Smith (FSU): -3.87
9. Josh Smith (CU): -3.86
10. Devin Thomas (WF): -3.52
A final imploration once again applies, to not take this as fully predictive, since it's strictly an offense-only tool. But it's a fun exercise, and in some cases, awfully illuminating.
Next week, what you've really been waiting for: our own players themselves. Short version: Everyone is amazing, and Tony Bennett is amazingest.
Tuesday, April 22, 2014
the recruit: Chris Peace
Name: Chris Peace
Position: LB/DE
Hometown: Newport News
School: Denbigh
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 220
24/7: 70, two stars; #211 OLB, VA #86
ESPN: 76, three stars; #91 OLB, VA #32, East #126
Rivals: 5.4, two stars
Scout: two stars
Other offers: FCS only
Today we finally wrap up the series on 2014 recruits. Does this mean the 2015 recruiting board is finally going to make an appearance soon? It might! We can certainly hope.
Chris Peace committed on the same day that Cory Jones did; both received an offer and committed almost immediately during their official visit in January. Fitting, because the similarities between the two players are immense. If I told you about a recent basketball convert who piled up huge sack numbers in his first year of playing D-line and whose eye-opening athleticism earned him an offer from Mike London to play the role of pass-rushing OLB in Jon Tenuta's scheme, despite being ignored by the vast majority of FBS football, I still haven't given you enough info to distinguish the two.
So you're lucky I don't just mail it in and link you to the Cory Jones profile. There are some differences, though. Peace is not as brand-spanking-new to football as Jones is; he just grew. A lot. As a junior - that is, when colleges are really paying attention - Peace was a 6'1", 170-pound wide receiver, and so, ended up on no radars at all because those guys are a dime a dozen, and 170 pounds is too skinny to pay any attention to.
Then he gained 50 pounds, kept the wide-receiver quickness, and added muscle, to the point where ESPN uses the words "strong" or "strength" five times in their evaluation. This is another difference between Peace and Jones - ESPN likes Peace a lot more, praising his strength, speed, and perhaps most importantly, motor. Scout says mostly the same things, except for the strength part - they're not as high on that. Nevertheless, their write-up finishes with, "Peace IS A MAJOR GET" - emphasis very much theirs.
With Peace, Jones, and J.J. Jackson, UVA's entire linebacker class consists of hybrid DE tweeners rather than true linebackers. You would expect a learning curve for all of them, but especially these last two. I'm tempted to interpret the presence of all three of them as a way of saying, "look, not all of these guys are gonna pan out, but we're hedging our bets here and at least one of them ought to." In a way that's a self-fulfilling prophecy, because three guys at the same position in the same class can't all be starters. By definition, someone will lose that competition.
That's one to look at it, though it's probably not the coaches' intention. More likely, they saw athletes they liked and thought they could use, thought were flying too far under the radar, and offered, which has been London's SOP for his whole time here. It just so happens that these are LB/DEs rather than DB/WRs. Like Jones, Peace is a pretty blank slate, and these kinds of projections and descriptions can be easily thrown off by anything from a new coaching staff to a new growth spurt.
Position: LB/DE
Hometown: Newport News
School: Denbigh
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 220
24/7: 70, two stars; #211 OLB, VA #86
ESPN: 76, three stars; #91 OLB, VA #32, East #126
Rivals: 5.4, two stars
Scout: two stars
Other offers: FCS only
Today we finally wrap up the series on 2014 recruits. Does this mean the 2015 recruiting board is finally going to make an appearance soon? It might! We can certainly hope.
Chris Peace committed on the same day that Cory Jones did; both received an offer and committed almost immediately during their official visit in January. Fitting, because the similarities between the two players are immense. If I told you about a recent basketball convert who piled up huge sack numbers in his first year of playing D-line and whose eye-opening athleticism earned him an offer from Mike London to play the role of pass-rushing OLB in Jon Tenuta's scheme, despite being ignored by the vast majority of FBS football, I still haven't given you enough info to distinguish the two.
So you're lucky I don't just mail it in and link you to the Cory Jones profile. There are some differences, though. Peace is not as brand-spanking-new to football as Jones is; he just grew. A lot. As a junior - that is, when colleges are really paying attention - Peace was a 6'1", 170-pound wide receiver, and so, ended up on no radars at all because those guys are a dime a dozen, and 170 pounds is too skinny to pay any attention to.
Then he gained 50 pounds, kept the wide-receiver quickness, and added muscle, to the point where ESPN uses the words "strong" or "strength" five times in their evaluation. This is another difference between Peace and Jones - ESPN likes Peace a lot more, praising his strength, speed, and perhaps most importantly, motor. Scout says mostly the same things, except for the strength part - they're not as high on that. Nevertheless, their write-up finishes with, "Peace IS A MAJOR GET" - emphasis very much theirs.
With Peace, Jones, and J.J. Jackson, UVA's entire linebacker class consists of hybrid DE tweeners rather than true linebackers. You would expect a learning curve for all of them, but especially these last two. I'm tempted to interpret the presence of all three of them as a way of saying, "look, not all of these guys are gonna pan out, but we're hedging our bets here and at least one of them ought to." In a way that's a self-fulfilling prophecy, because three guys at the same position in the same class can't all be starters. By definition, someone will lose that competition.
That's one to look at it, though it's probably not the coaches' intention. More likely, they saw athletes they liked and thought they could use, thought were flying too far under the radar, and offered, which has been London's SOP for his whole time here. It just so happens that these are LB/DEs rather than DB/WRs. Like Jones, Peace is a pretty blank slate, and these kinds of projections and descriptions can be easily thrown off by anything from a new coaching staff to a new growth spurt.
Monday, April 21, 2014
weekend review
OK, I guess it's safe to panic and run around screaming now. If the coaches and players are willing to admit publicly that the hitting is a concern, then I'm pretty sure the Fan Constitution allows us to go completely apeshit. I'm sure that's in there somewhere. Let's commence.
Or maybe there's a corollary that says when you're the #1 team in the country, you don't get to complain. I like that better, in fact. But it's still likely going to be necessary to color our perceptions for a while; in fact, I believe I got a head start on that in predicting a 2-1 series win over UNC instead of a sweep, though I did think Sunday would be much less of an issue.
Brian O'Connor bemoaned lost opportunities on Sunday, such as failing to score with runners at the corners in the first inning. Without a healthy dose of moxie from Josh Sborz, he might've been doing the same on Saturday; you probably lose 19 out of 20 games where you get outhit 10-3. Sborz wasn't stingy in giving out hits, as every Tar Heel in the lineup got one off him. But you talk about scattering hits, and Sborz laid them out almost perfectly so as to escape nearly unscathed..... and then Connor Jones and Nick Howard slammed the door.
It goes to show the value of a good bullpen. That's something that fans never think about until it blows enough leads. Well, consider it thought. Sborz did a nice job wiggling out of his jams, but life is much easier when you don't create any in the first place. Combine all this with Friday's performance from Nathan Kirby, who outdueled UNC's Trent Thornton by fanning 12 hitters and, most importantly and unlike Thornton, not giving up any home runs ... and you have another virtuoso weekend from the moundsmen.
Perhaps one of these days the batsmen will follow suit. The Hoos won two games mainly on the strength of two mistake pitches from the Carolina starters; a flat Thornton fastball that ended up who knows where and a hanging curve from Moss that snuck over the fence in just about the same place. The fun part, though, is this: UVA is the near-consensus #1 team in the country and the #120 team in batting average. Who's going to stop UVA if the pitching stays just as good and the bats fire up?
More baseball in brief:
-- Notre Dame did UVA a big favor yesterday by beating Miami. If it happens again I'd be awfully surprised, but for now the best Miami can do is keep the tie. It gets harder for the Canes next week as they visit Clemson, but UVA has Florida State so it's not like it's any easier for us.
-- The reason UVA is only near-consensus as #1 is because Collegiate Baseball is of the strange opinion that Cal Poly's sweep of Cal State-Fullerton (that's "18-16 Cal State-Fullerton" to you) is more impressive than whatever UVA did. Their previous #1, Louisiana-Lafayette, didn't sweep whatever Sun Belt cupcake they had this week, so they fell to 3rd and UVA stayed at 2nd. Everyone else puts the Hoos up top.
-- Derek Fisher is back! That's excellent because he was hitting .333 before he went down. The guy who moved into the lineup on the regular when that happened, stayed in - that'd be John LaPrise, since he's also hitting over .300.
-- Florida State next week - by far the biggest three games of the remaining regular season.
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-- I opted to watch baseball over lacrosse on Saturday; they were at the same time, which is always a conundrum, and I figured I'd better get my chance to watch a halfway decent production of baseball for once. The box score says everything I probably would've said anyway, though. Namely, Ryan Lukacovic still should not be losing minutes to Owen Van Arsdale (1 goal, 1 assist, 1 turnover against goose eggs, 2 TOs, and a penalty... hm.) I'm not gonna lie, when the program announced the hiring of Dom's son as an assistant coach, "Mike Groh" was one of the initial thoughts that popped into my head. Now, Marc Van Arsdale has been a productive offensive coordinator in his time, and OVA has 24 assists so he's definitely had his moments too... but will Dad have the stones to bench his son if he continues to be outplayed?
-- I'm getting awfully fed up with Cavaliers Live. I'm not the only one. This was a much better production two, three years ago. I'm not really jonesing for HD coverage, because I'm mindful that simply being able to watch UVA baseball (and lax, and soccer, and stuff) is a major upgrade from the inaccessibility of past years. Give it time. But I'm also mindful that I'm paying far more than I am for any cable channel and getting the most amateurish production imaginable.
The scorebug looks like it was created by the freshman TV class at the local high school, has less than the bare minimum of useful info, and is sometimes not updated for a full inning, leaving the impression that the visitors are batting in the bottom half. You've got the patented Earthquake-o-Vision from the third-base camera - surely it can be set up anywhere else, because I assume what's happening is that fans are moving around and rattling the stand. Cutting from the side view to the plate view in the middle of the pitch is incredibly disconcerting and would probably get a producer fired at a real cable station. (According to the explanation from the VSTV folks, we can't have a center field view because the coaches don't want the signs broadcasted, and therefore at risk of being stolen. Fine. You still can't see them from behind the plate, and you can still have the guy hitting the button for the switch learn when pitchers are ready to throw, and not wait for the middle of the windup.)
Then of course we have the cardinal sin: chopping off the end of games. It happened during the Loyola game in lacrosse; I suspect because the feed was coming in slower than live, so that when the game ended, fans were watching the middle of the fourth quarter but the production people just shut off the feed and went home. This weekend the feed just cut off before the end of the game. If those were the only two times I'd be surprised, but they're the two I remember. The first time, they promised that, "The error will be corrected to ensure the Cavaliers Live viewing experience meets our production expectations for future webcasts." Uh-huh.
There's one more home baseball series, after which that subscription is coming to a merciful end. Whether I re-subscribe next year depends on the work they put in during the offseason to unfuck the presentation.
-- There are new uniforms in the world of ACC football. Florida State's are fine, more or less, but Syracuse's are A) godawful, B) largely a copy of Boise State's, right down to the unnecessary Trendy Gray**, and C) living proof that college football players would "get hype" about playing in a pink tutu if it was brand new and you presented it with enough I'M-A-WARRIOR flair. Make sure the CG models hold their arms out like their lats are the size of elephants.
**The gray is funny because Syracuse fans already got up in arms over Trendy Gray basketball jerseys a couple years back - remarkably, they didn't really like having their team look just like the one they considered their biggest Big East rival. Georgetown's school colors are gray and blue. Let's hope Trendy Maroon is never a thing.
-- It was announced today that UVA will play a basketball home-and-home with George Washington, which is just exactly the kind of team we should be scheduling home-and-home. You can play 28 games, so, ACC teams get 10 non-conference ones, and a tournament of up to four can count as one. In my ideal world no more than six of these 10 would be cupcakes. The other four would be the yearly tournament, the B1G Challenge, and two teams from conferences like the SEC, A-10, Big East, etc.
Or maybe there's a corollary that says when you're the #1 team in the country, you don't get to complain. I like that better, in fact. But it's still likely going to be necessary to color our perceptions for a while; in fact, I believe I got a head start on that in predicting a 2-1 series win over UNC instead of a sweep, though I did think Sunday would be much less of an issue.
Brian O'Connor bemoaned lost opportunities on Sunday, such as failing to score with runners at the corners in the first inning. Without a healthy dose of moxie from Josh Sborz, he might've been doing the same on Saturday; you probably lose 19 out of 20 games where you get outhit 10-3. Sborz wasn't stingy in giving out hits, as every Tar Heel in the lineup got one off him. But you talk about scattering hits, and Sborz laid them out almost perfectly so as to escape nearly unscathed..... and then Connor Jones and Nick Howard slammed the door.
It goes to show the value of a good bullpen. That's something that fans never think about until it blows enough leads. Well, consider it thought. Sborz did a nice job wiggling out of his jams, but life is much easier when you don't create any in the first place. Combine all this with Friday's performance from Nathan Kirby, who outdueled UNC's Trent Thornton by fanning 12 hitters and, most importantly and unlike Thornton, not giving up any home runs ... and you have another virtuoso weekend from the moundsmen.
Perhaps one of these days the batsmen will follow suit. The Hoos won two games mainly on the strength of two mistake pitches from the Carolina starters; a flat Thornton fastball that ended up who knows where and a hanging curve from Moss that snuck over the fence in just about the same place. The fun part, though, is this: UVA is the near-consensus #1 team in the country and the #120 team in batting average. Who's going to stop UVA if the pitching stays just as good and the bats fire up?
More baseball in brief:
-- Notre Dame did UVA a big favor yesterday by beating Miami. If it happens again I'd be awfully surprised, but for now the best Miami can do is keep the tie. It gets harder for the Canes next week as they visit Clemson, but UVA has Florida State so it's not like it's any easier for us.
-- The reason UVA is only near-consensus as #1 is because Collegiate Baseball is of the strange opinion that Cal Poly's sweep of Cal State-Fullerton (that's "18-16 Cal State-Fullerton" to you) is more impressive than whatever UVA did. Their previous #1, Louisiana-Lafayette, didn't sweep whatever Sun Belt cupcake they had this week, so they fell to 3rd and UVA stayed at 2nd. Everyone else puts the Hoos up top.
-- Derek Fisher is back! That's excellent because he was hitting .333 before he went down. The guy who moved into the lineup on the regular when that happened, stayed in - that'd be John LaPrise, since he's also hitting over .300.
-- Florida State next week - by far the biggest three games of the remaining regular season.
**************************************************
-- I opted to watch baseball over lacrosse on Saturday; they were at the same time, which is always a conundrum, and I figured I'd better get my chance to watch a halfway decent production of baseball for once. The box score says everything I probably would've said anyway, though. Namely, Ryan Lukacovic still should not be losing minutes to Owen Van Arsdale (1 goal, 1 assist, 1 turnover against goose eggs, 2 TOs, and a penalty... hm.) I'm not gonna lie, when the program announced the hiring of Dom's son as an assistant coach, "Mike Groh" was one of the initial thoughts that popped into my head. Now, Marc Van Arsdale has been a productive offensive coordinator in his time, and OVA has 24 assists so he's definitely had his moments too... but will Dad have the stones to bench his son if he continues to be outplayed?
-- I'm getting awfully fed up with Cavaliers Live. I'm not the only one. This was a much better production two, three years ago. I'm not really jonesing for HD coverage, because I'm mindful that simply being able to watch UVA baseball (and lax, and soccer, and stuff) is a major upgrade from the inaccessibility of past years. Give it time. But I'm also mindful that I'm paying far more than I am for any cable channel and getting the most amateurish production imaginable.
The scorebug looks like it was created by the freshman TV class at the local high school, has less than the bare minimum of useful info, and is sometimes not updated for a full inning, leaving the impression that the visitors are batting in the bottom half. You've got the patented Earthquake-o-Vision from the third-base camera - surely it can be set up anywhere else, because I assume what's happening is that fans are moving around and rattling the stand. Cutting from the side view to the plate view in the middle of the pitch is incredibly disconcerting and would probably get a producer fired at a real cable station. (According to the explanation from the VSTV folks, we can't have a center field view because the coaches don't want the signs broadcasted, and therefore at risk of being stolen. Fine. You still can't see them from behind the plate, and you can still have the guy hitting the button for the switch learn when pitchers are ready to throw, and not wait for the middle of the windup.)
Then of course we have the cardinal sin: chopping off the end of games. It happened during the Loyola game in lacrosse; I suspect because the feed was coming in slower than live, so that when the game ended, fans were watching the middle of the fourth quarter but the production people just shut off the feed and went home. This weekend the feed just cut off before the end of the game. If those were the only two times I'd be surprised, but they're the two I remember. The first time, they promised that, "The error will be corrected to ensure the Cavaliers Live viewing experience meets our production expectations for future webcasts." Uh-huh.
There's one more home baseball series, after which that subscription is coming to a merciful end. Whether I re-subscribe next year depends on the work they put in during the offseason to unfuck the presentation.
-- There are new uniforms in the world of ACC football. Florida State's are fine, more or less, but Syracuse's are A) godawful, B) largely a copy of Boise State's, right down to the unnecessary Trendy Gray**, and C) living proof that college football players would "get hype" about playing in a pink tutu if it was brand new and you presented it with enough I'M-A-WARRIOR flair. Make sure the CG models hold their arms out like their lats are the size of elephants.
**The gray is funny because Syracuse fans already got up in arms over Trendy Gray basketball jerseys a couple years back - remarkably, they didn't really like having their team look just like the one they considered their biggest Big East rival. Georgetown's school colors are gray and blue. Let's hope Trendy Maroon is never a thing.
-- It was announced today that UVA will play a basketball home-and-home with George Washington, which is just exactly the kind of team we should be scheduling home-and-home. You can play 28 games, so, ACC teams get 10 non-conference ones, and a tournament of up to four can count as one. In my ideal world no more than six of these 10 would be cupcakes. The other four would be the yearly tournament, the B1G Challenge, and two teams from conferences like the SEC, A-10, Big East, etc.
Tuesday, April 8, 2014
basketball season in review, 1
I hope you liked this season. You won't see another one like it in a very, very long time, maybe not in your lifetime. Oh, not to say the team won't be good again, or even win ACC championships again, or that it won't be a lot of fun watching them do it. But the feeling of discovery will be gone. Not really knowing how good the team is, but finding out a little more every night, one blowout at a time, how good they can be - it's a special thing, and not replicable.
Sorry. Don't mean to depress you. Winning is fun and it always will be, just, a different kind from here on out. And Tony Bennett still has some uncharted waters left. But let's talk this season. We'll wrap it up the same way, more or less, that we opened it: a player-by-player review that'll take two posts to finish, and then, once the draft deadline has passed, an early look at the state of the ACC in 2014-2015.
#0 - Devon Hall - Fr. PG
This season: Redshirted.
Next season: Part of the reason Teven Jones is transferring is because of the numbers game created by Devon Hall coming off his redshirt. Occasionally it's hinted that Hall is a guy we should have high expectations for, but we simply won't know the extent of it til we see it in person.
We can get a fair idea of his likely role, though. Joe Harris averaged 28.8 minutes, and if you take out blowouts it was more like about 32. Malcolm Brogdon and London Perrantes are close to maxed out; they got 31.4 and 29.9, respectively, and you can't tack on much more - about 4 each, let's say, which would get them to about what they averaged down the stretch. That leaves 20 backcourt minutes to be doled out, of which Justin Anderson probably gets 5 to 8.
Toss in the minutes opened up by Teven Jones - not many, but they're there - and that leaves, oh, maybe 12-18 minutes a game to be split between Hall and B.J. Stith. More early on, when there's no point in running the starters ragged and when it's therefore unlikely that Brogdon gets any 35-minute games.
Hall will definitely be asked to run the offense at times; sharp-eyed viewers will note that everyone in the backcourt (except Evan Nolte), not just Perrantes and Brogdon, took a spin initiating the offense. Harris and Anderson as well. Probably 75% of the time, things were operated by the point guard, but there were times it wasn't always the case. So we shouldn't expect that just because we have Perrantes and Brogdon, Hall will play exclusively off the ball - and vice versa.
Obviously, expectations should be tempered, because we're Virginia fans and we always overshoot. Really, all Hall needs to do is chip in four or five points a game and we'll have what we need out of him.
#1 - Justin Anderson - So. SF
This season: Anderson is such a fun player to watch that what I'm about to say will sound heretical, but: on the stat sheet, he didn't really progress this year. Even fell back slightly in a few areas. He shot more this year, but didn't improve his shooting; he actually blocked fewer shots than last year, got fewer steals, fouled more, turned the ball over more, and all in fewer minutes. His mid-range game didn't improve like I hoped it might in the preseason. And early in the year his three-point game was up over last year, to the point where I thought to myself "he doesn't hit a ton, but he hits just enough." In ACC and tournament play, though, that disappeared, and he was just 27% from deep.
Here's the thing about basketball teams, though: they're almost never exactly the sum of their parts. Bill Simmons writes like half his columns on that premise (and mainly when the whole falls short of the sum.) College teams in particular, every year they have to find a new mix. Coaching is part mad science and chemistry instructor. Part of the reason this UVA team was so incredibly much more than the sum of its parts is because Anderson has a knack for extremely well-timed big plays, and does a lot of non-scoresheet stuff by harnessing his apparently superhuman body control.
Some scoresheet stuff, too, come to think of it; his momentum-changing swat against Maryland that turned into a Joe Harris three was a thing of beauty. A Justin Anderson Superman block comes out of nowhere until you've seen enough of them; then you can spot 'em coming a mile off because you can see him lay the trap. Anderson has a rare and deadly combination of instinct, timing, and body control that makes him a marvel to watch.
That, and his infectious energy, earned him the inaugural ACC 6th Man award from the media. He might not start, but he finishes, and in no game was his end-of-game presence more important than the ACC semifinal against Pitt when his incredible leaping talents got his fingers in the way of James Robinson's potential game-tying shot. His least spectacular block of the year, but his most important.
Next season: Anderson would be considered a frustrating player if he weren't so damn fun to watch and full of spit and hustle. He could stand to improve his efficiency, and can do so by improving either his handle or his shot. All he'd need to do, really, is hit like five more threes over the course of the season and he'd be up near 34, 35%, good enough to be considered, if not quite a true threat, at least reasonable.
I don't think it's a given that he starts. His energy is awfully useful off the bench; it's like hitting the opponent with a whole second wave of reinforcements. If Stith or Hall are impressive enough in the preseason, they could take the starting spot vacated by Harris. I at least envision some more tinkering in the early part of the season, and Tony will eventually make a decision one way or the other, but Anderson seems likely to once again split his time between the first and second unit til then. Since we already know he can defend, it'll probably (in a very un-Tony-like decision) depend on his scoring. He'll start if he proves irreplaceable on offense; in which case the ACC would be hard on notice because Anderson with a handle would be an absolute terror.
#5 - Teven Jones - So. PG
This season: Odd man out, unfortunately. It had to be someone, which was a good position for the team but not for Jones and his minutes. Early on, he was a back-end rotation player, even in close games. He got nine minutes in the VCU loss and eleven in the Norfolk State game, which was a closer game than it should've been.
By the time the ACC season was a third over, though, he was coming in just ahead of the walk-ons. He managed an incredibly rare five-trillion against Florida State (in Tallahassee, playing in large part because of the need to fill Joe Harris's minutes) and if he hadn't been the middleman between Anderson's mega-swat and Harris's transition three, against Maryland, he'd've earned another one. Come March, his pregame dances were the distinguishing feature of his game.
It should be mentioned, though, that not everyone would've taken such a demotion as well as Jones did. For which UVA fans are duly appreciative and well-wishing on his transfer.
Next season: Since the point of his transfer is to play, it wouldn't surprise to see Jones drop to a Division II school; since he burned his redshirt by joining the team midyear in 2011-2012, he'd have to waste a year of eligibility transferring within D-I.
#10 - Mike Tobey - So. C
This season: Tobey came in almost 30 pounds heavier than he was last season, which made him a lot harder to deal with down in the paint. The downside: he had to spend the year learning how to use that newfound size. Big men develop more slowly because their growth spurts force them to almost literally relearn the whole game every time they have one.
So it's not too surprising that Tobey would have a growth spurt - on the scale instead of the tape measure - and not know what to do with all that extra power. It led to a great deal of inconsistency, and announcers saying they wanted to see more fire and motor out of him. I don't think it's that Tobey lacks the energy (although he was sometimes being juxtaposed with Justin Anderson, which was not fair), it's that he simply was not always sure what he could get away with.
And while his offense came and went, his defense and rebounding took the upward path you'd expect from his added bulk. He became a top-100 shot blocker in the country (according to KenPom's block-percentage state) and a top-50 offensive rebounder. He was more aggressive on both offense and defense, even if at times it didn't seem like it and he disappeared for entire games. Part of the reason we say he disappeared is because of the much larger role he was being asked to play in the first place.
If you needed proof that Tobey successfully made the leap into the Circle of Trust, it came at the end of the Memphis game when he decided, for reasons known only to himself, to hork up a three with over 20 seconds left on the shot clock. This was not just running a red light, it was running the red light outside the Annual Law Enforcement Convention with "Fuck Tha Police" blasting from the speakers and throwing donuts out the window. The fact that Tony did not industrial-epoxy his ass to the bench was proof of Tobey's accession. It helped that he made the shot, too.
Next season: It's fair to expect a lot more consistency on offense. Tobey played less than half the available minutes, and with Akil Mitchell vacating more than 25 a game, Tobey should be up well over 20 next year. Mitchell was about a 7 ppg scorer, and the frontcourt newcomers - Isaiah Wilkins and Jack Salt - will likely pick up almost none of that. It's up to Tobey and Anthony Gill to pick up that slack. Like Anderson, Tobey has the potential to be a terror if his offense follows the glide path that it should. You notice that halfway through the year we stopped talking about his propensity to have his shot blocked, so there are legitimate reasons to expect great things after another offseason in the weight room and of learning to throw his weight around.
#11 - Evan Nolte - So. SF
This season: Pretty much all the predictions came true, about Nolte being the one to see his minutes get squeezed. He lost more than 10 minutes a game from his average and sat out five games entirely. The 9th player in a 9-man rotation. For most of the season, he looked like a player carrying out his assignment and, for fear of making the mistake that would cost him the rest of his minutes, never freelancing. He shot the ball much less than half as often as last year, and really wasn't hitting them as efficiently, either.
There's hope, though, and it comes in the form of his NCAA tourney minutes - and not just because he nailed some very timely threes against Coastal Carolina. Nor was it just because he exploded for a throwdown against Memphis - but we're getting warmer. Take a look at the minutes he played against Michigan State - 15, more than twice as many as Tobey. This against a team with some very dangerous frontcourt athletes.
This was because against Memphis and MSU, he actually looked like a power forward. It wasn't the shots he hit that impressed me, it was that somehow he flipped a switch and a new, much more aggressive Evan Nolte showed up on the court. Against MSU he pulled down five boards, by far his season high, and these were not because the ball bounced toward where he was standing. He went out and fought for them, he bodied up on defense, and I think he surprised MSU in doing so because there's no way that was part of their scouting report.
Next season: Last offseason I was fairly confident in saying Nolte's minutes would decline, and lo and behold, they did. Now, though.... if he shows the coaches more of that tournament fire, he'll make things very interesting, and as a result I think Nolte has the most unpredictable future of anyone on the team. Do the coaches continue to have him play mainly a perimeter role? Or do they give him a look as a true power forward at times?
There are two things I think Nolte can do to maximize his potential. One is to work on his stepback and/or pullup midrange shot. He hit one like that against Notre Dame and I thought, you know, with a little practice he could make that part of his arsenal. The other is to hit the weight room so hard the coaches have to change the locks. Now we know that when he's good and motivated, he can defend opposing fours. I don't think he'll ever have the quicks to guard scoring wings like, say, a T.J. Warren or Lamar Patterson, but with added strength he could guard the four for stretches and then step out and pop a three on the other end; that's a terribly frustrating type of player to have to scout and plan for.
It won't all come next season, I don't think. Nolte isn't quite the athlete Tobey and Anderson are, and so his pace of improvement is naturally going to have to be slower. But anyone ready to write him off based on the decreased minutes should remember he was still just a sophomore and has two more offseasons to work on things. I think in Nolte's case, if it all comes together it'll be as a senior - but there's good reason to believe in his progression next year. I don't know if I'd have said that before the NCAA tournament.
***********************************************
Part 2 flies next week, with six more scholarship players and one bonus.
Sorry. Don't mean to depress you. Winning is fun and it always will be, just, a different kind from here on out. And Tony Bennett still has some uncharted waters left. But let's talk this season. We'll wrap it up the same way, more or less, that we opened it: a player-by-player review that'll take two posts to finish, and then, once the draft deadline has passed, an early look at the state of the ACC in 2014-2015.
#0 - Devon Hall - Fr. PG
This season: Redshirted.
Next season: Part of the reason Teven Jones is transferring is because of the numbers game created by Devon Hall coming off his redshirt. Occasionally it's hinted that Hall is a guy we should have high expectations for, but we simply won't know the extent of it til we see it in person.
We can get a fair idea of his likely role, though. Joe Harris averaged 28.8 minutes, and if you take out blowouts it was more like about 32. Malcolm Brogdon and London Perrantes are close to maxed out; they got 31.4 and 29.9, respectively, and you can't tack on much more - about 4 each, let's say, which would get them to about what they averaged down the stretch. That leaves 20 backcourt minutes to be doled out, of which Justin Anderson probably gets 5 to 8.
Toss in the minutes opened up by Teven Jones - not many, but they're there - and that leaves, oh, maybe 12-18 minutes a game to be split between Hall and B.J. Stith. More early on, when there's no point in running the starters ragged and when it's therefore unlikely that Brogdon gets any 35-minute games.
Hall will definitely be asked to run the offense at times; sharp-eyed viewers will note that everyone in the backcourt (except Evan Nolte), not just Perrantes and Brogdon, took a spin initiating the offense. Harris and Anderson as well. Probably 75% of the time, things were operated by the point guard, but there were times it wasn't always the case. So we shouldn't expect that just because we have Perrantes and Brogdon, Hall will play exclusively off the ball - and vice versa.
Obviously, expectations should be tempered, because we're Virginia fans and we always overshoot. Really, all Hall needs to do is chip in four or five points a game and we'll have what we need out of him.
#1 - Justin Anderson - So. SF
This season: Anderson is such a fun player to watch that what I'm about to say will sound heretical, but: on the stat sheet, he didn't really progress this year. Even fell back slightly in a few areas. He shot more this year, but didn't improve his shooting; he actually blocked fewer shots than last year, got fewer steals, fouled more, turned the ball over more, and all in fewer minutes. His mid-range game didn't improve like I hoped it might in the preseason. And early in the year his three-point game was up over last year, to the point where I thought to myself "he doesn't hit a ton, but he hits just enough." In ACC and tournament play, though, that disappeared, and he was just 27% from deep.
Here's the thing about basketball teams, though: they're almost never exactly the sum of their parts. Bill Simmons writes like half his columns on that premise (and mainly when the whole falls short of the sum.) College teams in particular, every year they have to find a new mix. Coaching is part mad science and chemistry instructor. Part of the reason this UVA team was so incredibly much more than the sum of its parts is because Anderson has a knack for extremely well-timed big plays, and does a lot of non-scoresheet stuff by harnessing his apparently superhuman body control.
Some scoresheet stuff, too, come to think of it; his momentum-changing swat against Maryland that turned into a Joe Harris three was a thing of beauty. A Justin Anderson Superman block comes out of nowhere until you've seen enough of them; then you can spot 'em coming a mile off because you can see him lay the trap. Anderson has a rare and deadly combination of instinct, timing, and body control that makes him a marvel to watch.
That, and his infectious energy, earned him the inaugural ACC 6th Man award from the media. He might not start, but he finishes, and in no game was his end-of-game presence more important than the ACC semifinal against Pitt when his incredible leaping talents got his fingers in the way of James Robinson's potential game-tying shot. His least spectacular block of the year, but his most important.
Next season: Anderson would be considered a frustrating player if he weren't so damn fun to watch and full of spit and hustle. He could stand to improve his efficiency, and can do so by improving either his handle or his shot. All he'd need to do, really, is hit like five more threes over the course of the season and he'd be up near 34, 35%, good enough to be considered, if not quite a true threat, at least reasonable.
I don't think it's a given that he starts. His energy is awfully useful off the bench; it's like hitting the opponent with a whole second wave of reinforcements. If Stith or Hall are impressive enough in the preseason, they could take the starting spot vacated by Harris. I at least envision some more tinkering in the early part of the season, and Tony will eventually make a decision one way or the other, but Anderson seems likely to once again split his time between the first and second unit til then. Since we already know he can defend, it'll probably (in a very un-Tony-like decision) depend on his scoring. He'll start if he proves irreplaceable on offense; in which case the ACC would be hard on notice because Anderson with a handle would be an absolute terror.
#5 - Teven Jones - So. PG
This season: Odd man out, unfortunately. It had to be someone, which was a good position for the team but not for Jones and his minutes. Early on, he was a back-end rotation player, even in close games. He got nine minutes in the VCU loss and eleven in the Norfolk State game, which was a closer game than it should've been.
By the time the ACC season was a third over, though, he was coming in just ahead of the walk-ons. He managed an incredibly rare five-trillion against Florida State (in Tallahassee, playing in large part because of the need to fill Joe Harris's minutes) and if he hadn't been the middleman between Anderson's mega-swat and Harris's transition three, against Maryland, he'd've earned another one. Come March, his pregame dances were the distinguishing feature of his game.
It should be mentioned, though, that not everyone would've taken such a demotion as well as Jones did. For which UVA fans are duly appreciative and well-wishing on his transfer.
Next season: Since the point of his transfer is to play, it wouldn't surprise to see Jones drop to a Division II school; since he burned his redshirt by joining the team midyear in 2011-2012, he'd have to waste a year of eligibility transferring within D-I.
#10 - Mike Tobey - So. C
This season: Tobey came in almost 30 pounds heavier than he was last season, which made him a lot harder to deal with down in the paint. The downside: he had to spend the year learning how to use that newfound size. Big men develop more slowly because their growth spurts force them to almost literally relearn the whole game every time they have one.
So it's not too surprising that Tobey would have a growth spurt - on the scale instead of the tape measure - and not know what to do with all that extra power. It led to a great deal of inconsistency, and announcers saying they wanted to see more fire and motor out of him. I don't think it's that Tobey lacks the energy (although he was sometimes being juxtaposed with Justin Anderson, which was not fair), it's that he simply was not always sure what he could get away with.
And while his offense came and went, his defense and rebounding took the upward path you'd expect from his added bulk. He became a top-100 shot blocker in the country (according to KenPom's block-percentage state) and a top-50 offensive rebounder. He was more aggressive on both offense and defense, even if at times it didn't seem like it and he disappeared for entire games. Part of the reason we say he disappeared is because of the much larger role he was being asked to play in the first place.
If you needed proof that Tobey successfully made the leap into the Circle of Trust, it came at the end of the Memphis game when he decided, for reasons known only to himself, to hork up a three with over 20 seconds left on the shot clock. This was not just running a red light, it was running the red light outside the Annual Law Enforcement Convention with "Fuck Tha Police" blasting from the speakers and throwing donuts out the window. The fact that Tony did not industrial-epoxy his ass to the bench was proof of Tobey's accession. It helped that he made the shot, too.
Next season: It's fair to expect a lot more consistency on offense. Tobey played less than half the available minutes, and with Akil Mitchell vacating more than 25 a game, Tobey should be up well over 20 next year. Mitchell was about a 7 ppg scorer, and the frontcourt newcomers - Isaiah Wilkins and Jack Salt - will likely pick up almost none of that. It's up to Tobey and Anthony Gill to pick up that slack. Like Anderson, Tobey has the potential to be a terror if his offense follows the glide path that it should. You notice that halfway through the year we stopped talking about his propensity to have his shot blocked, so there are legitimate reasons to expect great things after another offseason in the weight room and of learning to throw his weight around.
#11 - Evan Nolte - So. SF
This season: Pretty much all the predictions came true, about Nolte being the one to see his minutes get squeezed. He lost more than 10 minutes a game from his average and sat out five games entirely. The 9th player in a 9-man rotation. For most of the season, he looked like a player carrying out his assignment and, for fear of making the mistake that would cost him the rest of his minutes, never freelancing. He shot the ball much less than half as often as last year, and really wasn't hitting them as efficiently, either.
There's hope, though, and it comes in the form of his NCAA tourney minutes - and not just because he nailed some very timely threes against Coastal Carolina. Nor was it just because he exploded for a throwdown against Memphis - but we're getting warmer. Take a look at the minutes he played against Michigan State - 15, more than twice as many as Tobey. This against a team with some very dangerous frontcourt athletes.
This was because against Memphis and MSU, he actually looked like a power forward. It wasn't the shots he hit that impressed me, it was that somehow he flipped a switch and a new, much more aggressive Evan Nolte showed up on the court. Against MSU he pulled down five boards, by far his season high, and these were not because the ball bounced toward where he was standing. He went out and fought for them, he bodied up on defense, and I think he surprised MSU in doing so because there's no way that was part of their scouting report.
Next season: Last offseason I was fairly confident in saying Nolte's minutes would decline, and lo and behold, they did. Now, though.... if he shows the coaches more of that tournament fire, he'll make things very interesting, and as a result I think Nolte has the most unpredictable future of anyone on the team. Do the coaches continue to have him play mainly a perimeter role? Or do they give him a look as a true power forward at times?
There are two things I think Nolte can do to maximize his potential. One is to work on his stepback and/or pullup midrange shot. He hit one like that against Notre Dame and I thought, you know, with a little practice he could make that part of his arsenal. The other is to hit the weight room so hard the coaches have to change the locks. Now we know that when he's good and motivated, he can defend opposing fours. I don't think he'll ever have the quicks to guard scoring wings like, say, a T.J. Warren or Lamar Patterson, but with added strength he could guard the four for stretches and then step out and pop a three on the other end; that's a terribly frustrating type of player to have to scout and plan for.
It won't all come next season, I don't think. Nolte isn't quite the athlete Tobey and Anderson are, and so his pace of improvement is naturally going to have to be slower. But anyone ready to write him off based on the decreased minutes should remember he was still just a sophomore and has two more offseasons to work on things. I think in Nolte's case, if it all comes together it'll be as a senior - but there's good reason to believe in his progression next year. I don't know if I'd have said that before the NCAA tournament.
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Part 2 flies next week, with six more scholarship players and one bonus.
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