hamm it up

Everybody loves a good Cinderella story.  And I love watching dominant running backs.  That makes Daniel Hamm the obvious topic du jour.

If you'd ever heard of Hamm, you are a teammate, a relation, or lying.  His existence flew under every radar that's tuned on Charlottesville.  He doesn't have an entry in most recruiting databases and he never received any scholarship offers to speak of, not in football.  He showed up on the field and people probably tried to remember if Khalek Shepherd wore #22 or some other number, until his name was announced.  Now his name is on all the headlines.

You have to admit, that's pretty cool.  It might be for just this one week, and might've only been VMI, but the entry in the record book is just as permanent as any other.  And it made something interesting out of an uninteresting game.

Also, it leaves some questions, or at least, one big one.  Namely, does this mean we have a new running back?  Well, the quality of competition looms large over everything positive we can say about Hamm's future.  Except for the first couple drives, VMI had no chance against the blocking, and Hamm always had a hole to run through.  When he broke a tackle, it always came with the question as to whether a player on a better team would've brought him down; when he ran past someone, you always wondered if another team's players would've been faster.  There's no way UVA's running game will generate 357 yards again this year.

Even so, a couple things look to be really in Hamm's favor here.  First and probably foremost, it's got to be really bad news for Kye Morgan, hasn't it?  That Khalek Shepherd and Taquan Mizzell are both hurt, and the next guy out is a true freshman walk-on, instead of Morgan who redshirted last season - that's a surprise.  Morgan's got more than three-and-a-half seasons left in his career, so it's not like you just write him off, but what didn't he show last year?

As for Hamm himself, some of those runs - particularly, I thought, his second TD run - were nice runs regardless of opponent.  He looked strong in his running.  Some of the holes he hit weren't very big, and the truth is, a lot of guys might have considered them too small and stepped around them, looking for a home run elsewhere.  And against most teams, that's how you run for two yards.  Hamm was content to take the five-to-seven and come back and do it again.  There's only one Barry Sanders, so give me the north-south, workhorse stuff all day long.  I loved watching a guy who would - oh, fuck it, Hammer the defense - carry after carry.

Whether Hamm has or will unseat Shepherd or Mizzell this season, nobody can say except those who aren't telling.  Whether that performance will translate to success against actual opponents, nobody can say at all.  But I'm looking forward to finding out.

Other stuff in short:

-- That was the good story of the offense.  The bad story: the passing game.  The numbers are good but the eye test was definitely not.  So many of those yards were YAC, and not like with Mike Rocco where the YAC was often the result of a very well-timed ball.  Watford threw a swing pass behind Kevin Parks and Parks was still able to pick up a ton of yardage; no ACC team will let that happen.

Watford's interceptions were the result of locking in on a receiver to absurd extremes.  Especially the first.  Some blame goes to Miles Gooch for running his route and then stopping, but he was so thoroughly covered that Watford had no business throwing that thing at all.  Watford had some nice throws, too - the one to Tim Smith for a touchdown was gorgeous.  Both his touchdown throws, actually, were excellent.  Even then, he was watching nobody but Smith all the way.  Until he learns to go through his second read he's not going to be a productive QB.

It would help if his receivers gave him a little assistance.  Gooch has been mentioned; Dominique Terrell was also guilty at least once.  Watford was scrambling and Terrell ran to a point on the field and simply stopped moving.  I can't believe this only happened the two times I noticed it.  Marques Hagans has got to impress on these guys that the route doesn't stop where the little arrow ends up.  Of all former quarterbacks - a guy who kept a ton of plays alive with his feet - he ought to know this best.

-- I love the defense, though.  When the announcers talked about how VMI had us "on the ropes" in the first quarter, well, OK, the offense didn't produce, but the VMI offense gained 15 yards the whole quarter.  I mean, come on.  The defense just crushed the fightin' Vimmies.  No contest.  If the offense had played as good a game as the defense it would've been 105-0.  I'm not going back through the annals to find out the last time UVA allowed so few yards (79) but the notes tell us that they allowed 84 to Akron in 2004.  So it goes back further than that.  I would go so far as to say that even with as bad as VMI is, the defense outperformed expectations.

Time for a prediction review:

-- Mizzell and Shepherd combine for at least five more carries than Parks.  The point here was that Parks was going to get a nice light day, maybe not show up in the second half.  I could null it out since nobody knew about their injuries, but I'm giving it to myself, actually, because Hamm by himself had four more carries and then the fourth quarter was turned over to the backups.

-- Watford averages 10 yards per attempt, enough to double his seasonal passing yards if allowed to throw 28 times.  He was at 8.2, which isn't enough for this.

-- At least five new redshirts are burned, two on the O-line.  The grand total is seven: Hamm is one, along with LaChaston Smith, Eric Tetlow, Sadiq Olanrewaju, Eric Smith, Max Valles, and Donte Wilkins.  Most are defensible; LaChaston Smith is the one I have to question.  That hurdle was cool, but couldn't Morgan have just gotten those carries?  Five deep is plenty.  It's doubly screwy because of the very strong possibility that Smith might move to a whole new position eventually.

The rest are fine.  I actually saw someone complaining that Hamm's redshirt had been burned.  Lordy.  You wouldn't have known he was even remotely good if you'd gotten your way.  Besides, Hamm is a walk-on; it's exceedingly wrong to essentially tell a walk-on "for the good of the team we're going to ask you to pay your very expensive way for a fifth year."  The offensive linemen almost had to play; the first-stringers can't take every snap of the season.  And we'll almost certainly see more of Wilkins, too.

-- Defensive tackles account for at least two sacks.  No, but they still dominated.

-- So does Eli Harold.  No, but Trent Corney did, probably against VMI's second-string tackle, although I didn't look to see.

-- Urban bats down at least two passes.  There was actually a lot of very good pressure on Eric Kordenbrock, but VMI did a nice job of keeping his release time short.

I only get two of six, which adds up to 6-for-16 on the year.  Full game prediction, with a win against the spread and a gimme on the straight-up, makes me 2-1 and 2-1 ATS.

We'll cover the rest of the ACC as part of tomorrow's weekend review.

game preview: VMI

Date/Time: Saturday, September 21; 3:30

TV: ESPN3

Record against the Keydets: 56-23-3

Last meeting: UVA 48, VMI 7; 9/25/10, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA bye; North Greenville 37, VMI 24

Line: UVA by 44

Injury report: N/A

Chances are, everything you need to know about VMI, you learned from the box score of the North Greenville game.  VMI is typically a lousy team for obvious recruiting-obstacles reasons, but even so they've generally been able to beat the D-II opponents their schedulers put in front of them.  Losing to one - getting creamed by one, actually - is the sort of inauspicious omen that says "this team might not win again all year."  But the games are played for a reason, and UVA is not in any position to take any opponent lightly, even a frosty cupcake like VMI.

-- UVA run offense vs. VMI run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 39 carries, 125 yards, 3.2 ypc, 1 TD
Taquan Mizzell: 13 carries, 30 yards, 2.3 ypc, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
116.5 yards/game, 2.88 yards/attempt
113th of 125 (national); 13th of 14 (ACC)

VMI defense:
206.3 yards/game, 5.16 yards/attempt
85th of 114 (national); 5th of 6 (Big South)

I have to admit, I'm a little surprised at how much the run game thus far has leaned on Kevin Parks.  I mean, Parks is a solid back, if he's ever given an inch of running room, which he has not, but I did think more work would've been handed to Khalek Shepherd and Taquan Mizzell by now.  But by their powers combined they have barely half the carries Parks does.

Not that they've shown they deserve a ton of work.  Mizzell hasn't gotten much room to maneuver either, and has done nothing spectacular in his nine carries.  Shepherd has one big run for 45 yards and has otherwise been equally bottled up.  Parks's 3.2 yards a carry - which is an awfully disappointing number - lead the team, minus the big Shepherd run.

VMI is another 3-4 team, but one with a horribly undersized defensive front.  Nose tackle Joe Nelson - a redshirt freshman - is 265 pounds.  The ends are smaller.  Regardless of what stunts and whatever else the VMI defense tries to run, the matchup against Morgan Moses will be patently unfair, and if UVA can't completely own the line of scrimmage then we are going to have issues all year long.

I would expect some redshirts to be burned along the O-line.  Yes, people hate seeing that, but if they're in the two-deep they gotta play, and the depth we have doesn't allow us the luxury of sitting the freshmen out.  Moses can't play every snap all season long.  In fact, those who stick around for the fourth quarter will get a UVA fan's first glimpse at four brand-new linemen: Olanrewaju, Smith, Matteo, and Mooney.

You have to assume that Parks won't be asked to be a workhorse, either.  My guess is that Shepherd and Mizzell will combine to easily surpass Parks's total carries, and Kye Morgan probably gets some burn, too.  This should be a successful day on the ground.  If it's not, you might be better off spending the season in a drunken haze.

-- UVA pass offense vs. VMI pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 47/73, 64.4%; 275 yards, 1 TD, 4 INTs; 3.77 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 11 rec., 62 yards, 0 TDs
Darius Jennings: 10 rec., 60 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
144.0 yards/game, 3.6 yards/attempt
125th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

VMI defense:
304.0 yards/game, 7.7 yards/attempt
105th of 114 (national), 6th of 6 (Big South)

Yes, those are some truly shit numbers we've put up there.  I think the coaches realize it, too; it is decidedly not an effective pass offense when your QB hits on almost two-thirds of his passes and has such a truly poor per-attempt average.  They've talked about opening it up some this week.

On the flip side, though, those VMI numbers are even worse.  They don't look that bad, but remember: not just one, but two of their games are against D-II competition (and they needed a last-minute goal-line stand to beat one of those teams), and the only reason the numbers aren't worse is because North Greenville eased off the gas.  At cornerback, VMI starts a redshirt freshman (the entire depth chart abounds with freshmen) and a 5'9" junior.  Watford will double his passing yards for the season if the coaches let him throw enough.  25 passes would about do it.

-- VMI run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Derrick Ziglar: 34 carries, 191 yards, 5.6 ypc, 1 TD
Deon Watts: 20 carries, 47 yards, 2.3 ypc, 0 TD

VMI offense:
68.3 yards/game, 2.9 yards/attempt
108th of 114 (national), 6th of 6 (Big South)

UVA defense:
268.5 yards/game, 5.77 yards/attempt
114th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

These numbers are not quite fair because Oregon.  This game should help fix them.  VMI has actually had some success on the ground, mainly when they hand off to Derrick Ziglar.  Deon Watts appears to have been replaced on the depth chart due to lack of production.  VMI's horrible numbers actually stem from their pitiful pass protection.

That said, there is no depth on the VMI O-line.  They do have a pair of massive, 325-pound tackles, but the backup right tackle is 6'2, 260.  So is Will Lucas, the starting center.  Just from that matchup alone, Brent Urban and the rest of the gang at DT should have a field day.  Ziglar has some talent - he's a bowling-ball style back who measures in at 5'9", 230 - but as eminent a rush defense as Richmond held him to 26 yards.  Ziglar's build is rare in D-II, but the Hoos should be able to contain him without much trouble.

-- VMI pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Eric Kordenbrock: 68/109, 62.4%; 818 yards, 6 TDs, 3 INTs; 7.5 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Derrick Ziglar: 13 rec., 164 yards, 1 TD
James Rogers: 9 rec., 105 yards, 1 TD

VMI offense:
272.7 yards/game, 7.5 yards/attempt
25th of 114 (national), 1st of 6 (Big South)

UVA defense:
191.0 yards/game, 5.5 yards/attempt
24th of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

Largely out of necessity, VMI has thrown the ball a ton this season, especially against North Greenville; Eric Kordenbrock had 47 throws in that game.  Kordenbrock isn't a bad quarterback as I-AA signal-callers go, but he's also a big, tall statue (6'4", 220) with zilch running ability, which contributes to the poor pass protection he's been getting.

As mentioned, VMI's tackles are huge, so in the pass-rush department, I'd expect Jake Snyder to have a quiet day; Eli Harold off the edge could be interesting, though.  If those big guys can handle his speed, maybe Kordenbrock won't get killed on the blind side.  If not, it'll be an all-day kinda thing for Harold.  Urban is also going to have some fun going up against VMI's undersized interior; it's likely he'll have to be double teamed because putting his height against VMI's lack of it will result in plenty of swatted passes.  Lucky for VMI their QB is tall, but their passing game is also oriented largely to the middle of the field.  The leading receivers are RB Ziglar and slot receiver James Rogers, and tight end Mario Thompson is heavily involved, too.

The one matchup issue UVA might have is 6'5" outside receiver Sam Patterson.  But if he were fast, one, he'd average a lot more than 10.8 yards a catch, way at the bottom of that list for VMI, and two, he'd be playing I-A football.

Our secondary is going to have an athleticism advantage because every unit should have an athleticism advantage, but I'd say it's that pass rush that should make life miserable for VMI.  The DTs could well have a turkey shoot out there, and Harold has the potential to be a major X factor.

-- Favorability ratings

I had some trouble with these, because, look, things like our pass offense have really sucked so far.  But VMI is so .... bad.  This is still a new thing, so, still in need of calibration if you will, but let's try:

UVA run offense: 10
UVA pass offense: 9.5
UVA run defense: 10
UVA pass defense: 10

Average: 9.86

-- Outlook

It's hard to write one of these things without sounding arrogantly dismissive.  But VMI did lose to a D-II team.  The difference between D-II (36 scholarships) and I-AA (63) is much greater than that between I-AA and I-A (85).  And this wasn't just one bad game.  VMI struggled to beat Glenville State - a bad D-II team! - and was totally uncompetitive against Richmond.  They could neither move the ball nor stop Richmond, on a crappy rainy day, against the quarterback that came in third in the same QB competition where David Watford came in second in 2011 (as a true freshman.)  This is a worse VMI team than the one that lost 48-7 to a bad UVA team in 2010.  There's no reason at all this should be competitive.

-- Prediction summary:

-- Mizzell and Shepherd combine for at least five more carries than Parks.

-- Watford averages 10 yards per attempt, enough to double his seasonal passing yards if allowed to throw 28 times.

-- At least five new redshirts are burned, two on the O-line.

-- Defensive tackles account for at least two sacks.

-- So does Eli Harold.

-- Urban bats down at least two passes.

Final score: UVA 59, VMI 0

-- Rest of the ACC:

Clemson 26, NC State 14  - Thu. - Probably closer than it should've been, which could be a storm cloud for Clemson, but their defense was excellent.

North Carolina @ Georgia Tech - 12:00 - A big Coastal matchup that would take place later in the season if the ACC schedulers were smart.  I mean, at least in October.

Virginia Tech vs. Marshall - 12:00 - Tech's quest continues to find a defense they can move the ball against.

Wake Forest @ Army - 12:00 - Not remotely a guaranteed ACC win.

Pittsburgh @ Duke - 12:30 - Could already be a Bowl Eligibility Bowl.

Syracuse vs. Tulane - 12:30 - Second part of the epic ACC-CUSA matchups this week.

Maryland vs. West Virginia - 3:30 - A big chance to learn something about Maryland.

Florida State vs. Bethune-Cookman - 6:00 - Wildcats to the slaughter.

Miami vs. Savannah State - 7:00 - Likewise.

game preview: VMI

Date/Time: Saturday, September 25; 1:30 PM

TV: ESPN3

History against the Keydets: 55-23-3

Last matchup: UVA 42, VMI 0; 1991

Last week: UVA bye; VMI bye

Line: N/A

Opposing blogs: none

Injury report: None, but WR Tim Smith is off the depth chart and won't play.

This week's uniform: blue jersey, blue pants

VMI season preview

Really, if you must schedule a I-AA program, this is the kind to schedule. No William & Mary or JMU, where they get their players believing they're every bit as good and sometimes prove themselves right. At VMI they just say things like "it's a great opportunity for our school" which translates as "oh boy $$$" since VMI hasn't played a BCS team since 2005 (and hasn't played a real one since forever because 2005 was Duke) and this probably doubles their athletic budget.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Just play some goddam football.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- Overconfidence, basically.

- Well, VMI had a bye this week too and probably spent it coming up with crazy trick plays and if they have like twelve of them and if UVA is totally fooled by the first nine then maybe they score twelve touchdowns.

- Oh, fine. If UVA loses this game it will be a 3-0 score. For all the goodwill coming from the USC game, we forget that the offense managed one touchdown in eleven drives, followed by a goodwill score to make the result look better, aided by a bend-and-don't-care-if-we-break USC defense. VMI does have a few players on defense, specifically safety Byron Allen who is a tackle machine. They have the ability to shut down a running game - I don't know about a I-A running game, but William & Mary, despite shellacking VMI, only averaged 3.3 yards a carry and got nothing longer than 12 yards. Can they shut down UVA's? Probably not, but if they do, an INT-prone QB is INT-prone no matter who the opponent, and it's not a total leap of the imagination to envision the perfect storm where UVA's O-line is rusty from the bye and can't put together a running game, forcing Verica to the air where turnovers happen....it's not likely, but still.

Then again, VMI's starting nose tackle, Josh Wine, is 265 pounds, and B.J. Cabbell is 305. So.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

VMI, as you'll notice, is 1-1, the win coming from the season opener against Lock Haven. That would be Division II Lock Haven. Lock Haven is not only a Division II team, it is a shitty D-II team. The Lock Haven Bald Eagles haven't won a football game since 2007.

Lock Haven stuffed the VMI running game for 47 yards on 23 carries.

UVA might score 10 points or they might score 49. But damn if VMI ought to be scoring. Their quarterbacks (they have yet to settle on one) are 32-for-80. William & Mary picked them off five times. And the running game has that whole Lock Haven fiasco going for it. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see VMI bring a trick play out of the book, something like what Presbyterian pulled off against Wake Forest. And if they score on that, fine. But this ought to be a shutout.

Ideally, this game is out of control midway through the second quarter, the second string starts to filter in at halftime, and the fourth quarter is a scrubfest. And that's probably what'll happen, because this is the kind of game where the only way to lose it is mentally, and Mike London's X's and O's are still unproven but his players' mental preparation appears to be top-notch.

If we do lose, I'm stowing away on the next rocket to Neptune and getting off sometime just past Jupiter.

REST OF THE ACC

Thursday:

Miami @ Pittsburgh, 7:30

Saturday:

Maryland vs. Florida Int'l, 12:00
NC State @ Georgia Tech, 12:00
Virginia Tech @ Boston College, 12:00
Duke vs. Army, 3:00
North Carolina @ Rutgers, 3:30
Wake Forest @ Florida State, 3:30

season previews: Richmond and VMI

No need for the full treatment for the teams UVA isn't in direct, season-long competition with, so we'll take care of the synopses on the OOC opponents two at a time, and not really go all-out either to be honest. But it's something, and here's betting nobody else is doing this. You're still the most educated UVA fans when it comes to the opposition. First up, the I-AA schools.

Richmond Spiders

Projected starters:

QB: Aaron Corp (rJr.)
RB: Garrett Wilkins (Jr.)
FB: Kendall Gaskins (So.)
WR: Kevin Grayson (5Sr.)
WR: Tre Gray (rJr.)
TE: Kevin Finney (rSo.)
LT: Kevin Westervelt (rJr.)
LG: Ryan Goss (rJr.)
C: Drew Lachenmeyer (5Sr.)
RG: Jason Sakoian (rJr.)
RT: Mark Speir (rFr.)

DE: Casey Cooley (5Sr.)
DT: Corey Jackson (rJr.)
DT: Martin Parker (5Sr.)
DE: Kerry Wynn (rFr.)
SLB: Patrick Weldon (5Sr.)
MLB: Darrius McMillan (rSo.)
WLB: Eric McBride (5Sr.)
CB: Tremayne Graham (rJr.)
CB: Justin Rogers (5Sr.)
S: Colin Pehanick (rJr.)
S: Darryl Hamilton (rSo.)

K: Wil Kamin (So.)
P: Casey Dobyns (Jr.)

(Italics indicate new starter.)

Coach: Latrell Scott (1st season)

Media prediction: 6th place, CAA

All-CAA:

2009 1st team: OL Matt McCracken, OL Michael Silva, PR Derek Hatcher, LB Eric McBride, LB Colin McConaghy
2009 2nd team: WR Kevin Grayson, DL Martin Parker
2009 3rd team: QB Eric Ward, RB Justin Forte, FB Kendall Gaskins, WR Tre Gray, OL Drew Lachenmeyer, DL Parker Miles, LB Patrick Weldon, S Michael Ireland
2010 preseason: FB Kendall Gaskins, WR Kevin Grayson, WR Tre Gray, OL Drew Lachenmeyer, DL Martin Parker, LB Eric McBride, CB Justin Rogers

(Italics indicate departed player.)

Not unlike North Carolina, the voters stuffed the conference preseason team with Spiders and then smacked them down to middling status when it came time for the standings. That may be an indictment of first-year coach Latrell Scott, who has never been a coordinator let alone a head coach, but it's more likely indicative of the fact that just about every Richmond starter not named to the preseason team is a fresh face with little field experience.

OFFENSE

Richmond has to replace tremendously successful quarterback Eric Ward, and they thought they were getting their guy for 2010 and 2011 when Aaron Corp transferred from USC after failing to hold onto the job there. That kind of talent doesn't show up in I-AA ball every day, but he hasn't made the Richmond job his yet either, as last year's backup John Laub is giving him a serious run.

Whoever's at quarterback on September 4 will have some serious talent helping him out at receiver, the brightest spot on the offense. Kevin Grayson and Tre Gray return as starters, and third option Donte Boston will also be available. But the running game is as much to be determined as the quarterbacks. Garrett Wilkins is the top returning rusher, but Ward and departed workhorse Justin Forte carried the load for Richmond. Nothing is settled here and carries will likely be split as the season begins. All-conference fullback Kendall Gaskins was strictly a blocker last year, but the uncertainty could boost his carries, as well as shedding his freshman status.

The offensive line is probably going to be a trouble spot. Drew Lachenmeyer is solid in the middle, but the rest of the line sees all-new starters, and the right side in particular is woefully lacking in game experience.

DEFENSE

The defensive line has the same issues as the offensive line, with just one returning starter in Martin Parker. Parker is a real playmaker who probably has I-A talent, but the rest of the line saw precious little playing time in 2009.

Richmond is in much better shape at linebacker, where outside 'backers Patrick Weldon and Eric McBride return for their fifth seasons. Each topped 90 tackles last season and Weldon chipped in a pair of interceptions.

CB Justin Rogers will be depended on to cover opponents' top receivers, and his counterpart on the other side, Tremayne Graham, wasn't a 2009 starter but was a big contributor and should be able to play at a level close to Rogers. But Richmond has to break in two new starters at safety.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Both kicking specialists are new to the starting job, though punter Casey Dobyns started for Georgetown in 2008 before transferring. His stats are emblematic of the talent difference between I-A and I-AA: Dobyns averaged a mere 35 yards per punt. Wil Kamin handled kickoffs last year and moves on up to placekicking this year.

OUTLOOK

UVA fans are sweating the opener, as Richmond tends to be a playoff team in I-AA ball and isn't far removed from a national championship. With a revamped offense and a reasonably strong defense, a repeat of the last two matchups against Richmond seems in the cards; both were low-scoring, grindingly boring affairs and the 2001 game was won only on the margin of a missed Richmond PAT.


VMI Keydets

Projected starters:

QB: Cameron Jones (rJr.)
RB: Julian Bowers (rJr.)
FB: Hardy Temoney (So.)
WR: Stefawn Ross (So.)
WR: Mario Scott (Sr.)
TE: Josh Favaro (rJr.)
LT: Rob Bailey (Jr.)
LG: Bo Wren (Sr.)
C: D'Angelo Smith (Jr.)
RG: James Boatright (rJr.)
RT: Aaron Blue (rJr.)

DE: Ben Brandt (5Sr.)
NT: Josh Wine (Sr.)
DE: Damiso Alexander (5Sr.)
OLB: Emilio Calvin (rJr.)
ILB: Eric Church (rJr.)
ILB: A.J. Gross (rJr.)
OLB: Kris Ware (5Sr.)
CB: Greg Walker (Jr.)
CB: Michael Rainey-Wiles (Sr.)
FS: Trae Watkins (Jr.)
SS: Byron Allen (rJr.)

K: Jeff Sexton (So.)
P: Marc Ray (Sr.)

(Italics indicate new starter.)

Coach: Sparky Woods (3rd season)

Media prediction: 6th place, Big South Conference

All-Big South:

2009 1st team: OL George Handler, P Marc Ray, PR Tim Maypray
2009 2nd team: RB Howard Abegesah, DL Josh Wine, LB Emilio Calvin, DB Byron Allen
2010 preseason: DL Josh Wine, LB Emilio Calvin, P Marc Ray

(Italics indicate departed player.)

VMI is one of those schools that can be definitively said not to exist for the sake of the football team, and it shows on the field. The last winning record there: 1981, though they did scrape a couple .500 seasons this decade.

OFFENSE

There's quite an upheaval happening on this side of the ball. New starters abound, some of them brought over from the defense - notably, running back Julian Bowers, an RB-turned-LB-turned-RB, and Stefawn Ross, who made the curious switch from linebacker to wide receiver. VMI is also switching from a run-heavy spread with play selection reminiscent of Georgia Tech's to something more conventional. Leading receiver Mario Scott returns, having caught just 11 balls for 237 yards; VMI attempted only nine passes a game in 2009.

The line has experience, though, especially on the left side. And right guard James Boatright was a starter early in his career, even as a true freshman, but missed most of 2009 with a shoulder injury. Left guard Bo Wren has been an every-game starter since his freshman year as well, and can move up and down the line as needed.

DEFENSE

Whatever hope VMI has in pulling off a good season and/or a stunning upset of UVA rests here. This is an extremely experienced squad, and it placed several players on the preseason all-conference team. VMI runs a 3-4, but nose tackle Josh Wine is much more than just a line anchor; he ranked fourth on the team in tackles in 2009. But big linebacker Emilio Calvin fits the Al Groh mold of the rush OLB, leading the team in TFL with nine, including three sacks.

There's an old saw in football that says if your secondary is leading the team in tackles, you're in trouble - the opposition shouldn't be back there that often. What if your safety leads the conference in tackles? Is that bad? Byron Allen nearly did just that, ranking second in the Big South in tackles per game and racking up 93 total, 17 more than the next player on the team. Allen is a heck of a run-stopper, but the secondary overall will need to step it up in pass defense. None of the projected starters had an interception in 2009, though in fairness to Michael Rainey-Wiles, he was a wide receiver last year. That probably speaks to the depth of the secondary, which only managed four INTs last year, half as many as the opposition despite VMI's propensity to never pass the ball on offense.

SPECIAL TEAMS

When you're terrible, you better have a good punter, and Marc Ray is that, earning first-team all-conference honors despite having just walked on the season before. Jeff Sexton only had six opportunities to kick a field goal last year, converted three, and also missed three extra points.

OUTLOOK

VMI is terrible. That said, please let's just win this one by a lot so I don't look really dumb for saying that.

weekend review

Monday means it's time to check out the news I ignored over the weekend.

First, hoops. Hoops season is upon us, and the VMI game is in the books. No surprise, given the way VMI plays their game, it was an NBA style score at 107-97. Half of my predictions came true. Our 7-footers didn't see the court (Sene for some foggy eligibility reasons) but as I thought, the fouls were an issue (VMI's Travis Holmes fouled out and three more players ended up with four) and VMI had no answer whatsoever for our bigger players like Mike Scott (26 points, 18 boards). The three-point and foul shooting have got to get better though. I won't get too many basketball games on TV this year, but 18/28 foul shooting tells me plenty. That's gotta improve. Still, even though the Big South is a one-bid league, that's a game we should be glad is behind us and in the win column. That's a dangerous style of play. USF on Wednesday ought to be a little less scary despite being a Big East team.

Speaking of Sene, there is some worthwhile fluffery in the RTD regarding our favorite Senagalese. You gotta love a guy who can speak three languages.

Futbol! Thanks to our pretty shocking upset of Wake Forest in the semis, I got my first look at the soccer team yesterday. Now, I don't know a whole hell of a lot about the ins and outs of soccer. Couldn't tell you whether we should deploy an extra midfielder or what the hell ever. Pretty obvious that we were the second-best team on the pitch yesterday though. Fatigue? Sure. No ridiculously amazing freshmen thanks to freak knee injuries? Sure. We got beat, though, and it should have been a wider margin because that ball was definitely over the goal line. Good thing there's no instant replay.

Anyway, we're in the NCAAs, and we even have a bye, which is nice. As the 10th seed, we get a bye and a home game against the winner of Connecticut and Fairfield. If we manage to win two games, we get to advance to play, uh....Maryland.

At the ACC Sports Journal, they point out that the deadline to extend Al Groh's contract is coming up, and the prospects for that are iffy at best. OK, that's not too surprising, but they bring up the excellent point that failing to extend Groh through 2012 would leave merely three years on his contract for the first time in his tenure. That's kind of a magic number because eligibility lasts, you know, four years, and having only three years of durability means the old "don't go there because he might not be there your whole time" recruiting tactic kicks in. Groh's been on the hot seat for a while now, so he's probably had to deal with that already, but still, another log on the fire underneath his chair is never helpful.

It's playoff season in Virginia....high school playoff season. And Dominique Wallace had touchdowns three different ways in his team's 35-12 win. Oscar Smith played in a mud bowl, and Perry Jones did the dirty work to the tune of 175 yards, and his teammate Tim Smith cleaned up afterward with four touchdown catches. Jones had a TD of his own for good measure. Alex Owah also scored a couple touchdowns, but Harrisonburg's season is over.

Movement on the recruiting board is moderate:

- DE Garry Gilliam committed to Penn State, so he's off. Not a huge loss, as we already have three DE's in the class.

- WR Terdema Ussery is added and basically takes Gilliam's spot in the "good chance" section. I don't know a lot about Ussery but if your top three schools are UVA, Stanford, and Cal, you've probably got something going right in the classroom. Also, Scout is like wicked high on this guy. The other two services give him a decent but middling grade; Scout thinks he's the #14 receiver in the land. Weird, because Scout is usually the stingiest with their stars.

- Kevin Newsome is gone after naming a more or less official four of PSU, VT, OSU, and BC.

- I also removed DE Michael Buchanan. There's just nothing there. It's not happening.

Well. While our 'Hoos spent Saturday on their couches, the other ACC teams were out making a mess of the ACC standings as usual. Let's see what the blogs have to say.

Clemson treated Duke like Duke. "I needed that," says the Mickey Plyler Blog. Indeed, Duke is really useful for teams who "need that." EXCEPT US DAMMIT

UNC did not fare so well against Maryland. I needed a damn shower after that game. Rooting for Maryland - against a team I happen to like no less - just makes you feel......ewwwww. Grody. Bleh. Anyway, Tar Heel Mania dealt with the loss in the tried-and-true fashion of ripping on insane message board posters - the Scout boards are something of a target-rich environment for this pastime. An excerpt:

Some people, however, are a bit more short-sighted. Take, for example, these, um, gems from the Inside Carolina boards, guaranteed to combust after a loss:

“I’m tired of watching my football team lose when it matters most YEAR after YEAR.”

Because the sheer amount of important games we’ve had for the past decade is just EARTH SHATTERING.

VT lost to Miami in a Thursday night game that will be Exhibit W in the upcoming case before the Supreme Court, People of Blacksburg v. Stinespring. I can't decide which I like better as a College Game Balls descriptive of Stiney's crew: "offensive abortion" or repeated references to poop.

game preview: VMI

Virginia Cavaliers (0-0, 0-0) vs. VMI Keydets (1-0, 0-0)

Possible starting lineups:

UVA:
G - Mustapha Farrakhan (0 ppg, 0 apg, 0 rpg)
G - Calvin Baker (0 ppg, 0 apg, 0 rpg)
F - Mamadi Diane (0 ppg, 0 apg, 0 rpg)
F - Mike Scott (0 ppg, 0 apg, 0 rpg)
C - Tunji Soroye (0 ppg, 0 apg, 0 rpg)

VMI:
G - Chavis Holmes (16 ppg, 6 apg, 2 rpg)
G - Austin Kenon (17 ppg, 2 apg, 2 rpg)
G - Travis Holmes (30 ppg, 3 apg, 7 rpg)
F - Willie Bell (12 ppg, 0 apg, 8 rpg)
F - Ron Burks (11 ppg, 3 apg, 3 rpg)

Uh-oh? VMI is one of approximately 250 D-I college basketball teams that gets totally ignored throughout the course of a season, until they go and make life miserable for a team that everyone's already heard of. VMI's anonymity ended on Friday when they knocked off Kentucky, who, thanks to Gardner-Webb last year, is well on their way to establishing a pattern here. So now VMI is in the headlines just in time for Sunday's game. Oh joy.

Truth be told, VMI hasn't been 100% anonymous in recent times. They've earned a couple mentions in the Big News Media for playing a style of basketball best described as the Phoenix Suns on amphetamines. They might lose or they might win, but that 111-103 score over UK is very typical of a VMI basketball game. They averaged over 91 points a game last year, which is NBA territory and good enough to lead the nation - by a lot.

Fortunately, upstarts from 1-bid leagues don't usually have two big ones in them. Santa Clara, you may recall, knocked off UNC a few years back, then promptly got beat by a conference rival, Pacific. Gardner-Webb followed up their UK win last year with losses to UConn and Oklahoma.

VMI's biggest weakness: size. Nobody taller than 6'7" or bigger than 205 lbs (unless you count the guy who racked up a whole minute of PT) saw the floor for the Keydets against UK, and Kentucky countered with nobody taller than 6'9". Between Soroye, Brandenburg, and/or Sene, we should have 7 feet on the court at all times. And we have beef that VMI can't match, when you add Tucker, Scott, and maybe Meyinsse into the equation. Second weakness: fouls. Three Keydet starters ended with four fouls agaisnt UK, and a bench player (Keith Gabriel, who nevertheless scored 20) fouled out.

Match a size advantage with the opponent's propensity to foul and it's not hard to figure how we ought to be attacking the VMI defense. And in any case, this is a great test of how the team will respond to Leitao's challenge to play some damn defense. We're lucky that we got to send the Kentucky Canaries through the VMI coal mine before we went in ourselves. First games can be dangerous. But if we exploit that size advantage, stay patient on offense and diligent on defense, and learn our lesson from Kentucky, then we should be able to treat VMI like the mid-major stomping pad they're supposed to be.