de-frogger

The new park in Omaha, I think somewhat purposefully, was built to encourage pitchers' duels.  Low-scoring games offer the best drama baseball has to offer, and that means ratings and so on.  So it came as a little bit of a surprise to me that 2012 and 2013 produced no walk-off wins in the College World Series.  The last walk-off win belongs to South Carolina, against, you'll probably remember, UVa.

Armed with that knowledge, I may have been incorrect when I said Vengeance Tour '14 would have to come to a quick end for UVa to do anything worth doing in Omaha.  Having been the victim of the last CWS walk-off, the Hoos appear bound and determine to wreak that emotional havoc upon all who get in their way.  They toyed with Ole Miss, leaving runner after runner stranded in scoring position just to give the one-hit Rebels a fighting chance; then, TCU fans no doubt thinking (not incorrectly) that they had a great shot by throwing their ace starter, shutdown closer, and best middle reliever, the Hoos yanked the rug out again.  No doubt this is all out of long-simmering rage over being booted out of the 13th inning the last time we saw this city.

Baseball becomes the second UVa team this year to reach heights it's never achieved, following in the footsteps of women's tennis.  The Hoos will finish no worse than tied for third in the CWS, as two more teams will be shown the door before UVa plays its next game.  This is not to focus on the negative, though; this team has positioned itself to play for the national championship, and has three more wins to the dogpile.  They've taken the best shots that two of the best teams in the country had to offer; they one-hit the best-hitting team in the tourney and outpitched the (supposedly) best-pitching team in it.  Perhaps it was no accident that UVa was the highest-seeded team in town.  The story of the underdog favorite is a hackneyed one, but it's still fun if it's your own boys.

*********************************************

-- TCU's Cody Jones got the lion's share of the highlights for his diving catch, and it was a really nice one, but clearly, Brandon Downes had the more important web gem.  Runners at the corners and one down for TCU could've been devastating.  Instead the threat was snuffed out.  And by the way, I don't actually disagree with the TCU baserunner's decision to try for third.  "Never make the first or third out at third base" is a maxim that also implies the second out is forgivable.  And I'm usually a fan of the idea of forcing the outfielder to make a really good throw.  Usually they can't.

-- Whit Mayberry's outing was vintage Whit Mayberry.  He doesn't have the stuff that Howard or Lewicki have, and he doesn't have the control that Waddell has, but Jeebus tap-dancing Christ on a cracker does that dude battle.  Branden Kline is the only guy in recent memory I can think of who brought that much of an "I don't care how but I'm'a get this mufka out" mindset to the mound.  Nobody's gonna get this analogy, but he reminds me a little bit of a right-handed Mike Maroth.  That's a compliment even though I just compared Mayberry to the last 20-game loser in the majors.  I think he could make a really good pitching coach once his pro career is over.

-- UVa actually has a little bit of an advantage that Vanderbilt - the other 2-0 team - does not have.  Both UVa and Vandy next play on Friday.  Irvine and Texas are playing tonight, and the winner will have a day of rest before playing Vandy.  All four elimination-game teams got a rest day before that game, but TCU and Ole Miss will have to play us the day after their game.  It goes without saying that we're looking for another marathon.

-- Baseball generates all kinds of really interesting facts.  UVa has now played in the two longest games in TD Ameritrade CWS history.  Nine whole innings were played without a run, spanning over three hours; the equivalent of a full scoreless game.  UVa didn't have a single runner in between the two that scored to bookend that stretch.  It was tied for the longest game in CWS history in any stadium.

-- Bring on the Friday rematch.  You know I'm gonna like our pitching depth against anything either the Rebs or Frogs will have.

game preview: TCU

Date/Time: Tuesday, June 17; 8:00

TV: ESPN

Record against the Frogs: 0-0

Last meeting: None

Last game: UVA 2, Ole Miss 1; TCU 3, TTU 2

Pitching probables:

LHP Brandon Waddell (9-3, 2.66, 63 Ks) vs LHP Brandon Finnegan (9-3, 2.12, 129 Ks)

Believe it or not, there were some firsts that got achieved on Sunday night.  UVA had never beaten a team from outside of the state of California in the CWS, for example, and until Sunday was 0-4 in Omaha against the SEC as well.  (In fact, Tuesday will be UVA's first CWS game against someone other than the SEC or California.  This is less surprising than it sounds, when you think about it.)

The Hoos are carrying the flag for the ACC this year, and Tuesday's meeting will feature the only two national seeds to make it to Omaha.  So there's a lot riding on it, besides the usual meaning of game 2 of a double-elimination tourney.

TCU's recent history is awfully similar to UVA's, actually: also-ran status at best until they hired their current coach in 2004, who suddenly started winning confernence tournaments and hosting regionals.  The Froggies are in their second-ever CWS, their first trip being in 2010.  They're this year's Big 12 champs, and have lost one game in the whole postseason so far, stretching from the Big 12 tourney up til now - that one being a 3-2 nailbiter to super regional opponent Pepperdine.  You didn't expect this Omaha thing to be easy, I hope.

Win this, and UVA will, of course, await the winner of the losers' bracket; the losing team in this game will have to face the winner of the 3 PM game between Ole Miss and Texas Tech.  (This is unlikely to be Texas Tech.)  Below, find your scouting report:

-- First base: Kevin Cron (.278-5-40).  Cleanup hitter who owns the most power in the Frogs' lineup, but scouting reports for the draft suggest he would have a lot more if he refined his swing and approach.  Junior who was drafted in the 14th round by the D-backs, but turned down a 3rd-round pick three years ago.  Huge and slow on the basepaths.

-- Second base: Garrett Crain (.329-1-19).  Bats 5th.  Very good contact hitter who doesn't strike out much.  Excellent fielder who nevertheless went undrafted as a junior this year.

-- Third base: Derek Odell (.277-1-35).  Bats 2nd.  Another undrafted junior; has never been a stellar hitter, but has a good batting eye with nearly as many walks as strikeouts, and is a solid fielder.

-- Shortstop:  Keaton Jones (.275-0-20).  Bats 8th.  Light hitter with almost no power - only four doubles this season.  Very rangy on defense and forms the cornerstone of a veteran and very good-fielding infield.

-- Left field: Boomer White (.318-2-48).  Bats 3rd.  Good balance of speed, contact, and power.  Only underclassman (he's a sophomore) in the lineup.

-- Center field: Cody Jones (.272-0-17).  Leadoff hitter with terrific speed - has 28 SBs in 33 attempts.  Has 45 walks but also 47 Ks - both numbers are quite high.  Not much power, but that's to be expected.  Taken in the 38th round of the draft by the Indians.

-- Right field: Dylan Fitzgerald (.314-2-33).  Bats 7th.  Much improved hitter over last year; is now one of the better hitters in the lineup except for a nasty penchant for striking out; leads the team in that regard.

-- Catcher: Kyle Bacak (.267-0-18).  Bats 9th.  Never been much of a hitter; has no power.  Like most of the lineup, transferred from the junior college ranks.  Drafted in the 25th round by the Nats.

-- Designated hitter: Jerrick Suiter (.273-0-29).  Bats 6th.  26th-round pick by the Pirates, drafted as a right fielder; can also catch and pitched some as a freshman.

-- Pitching staff:

Starter: Brandon Finnegan (9-3, 2.12, 129 Ks).  Finnegan was drafted 17th overall by the Royals, just a couple notches ahead of Nick Howard.  He's a rare sort of pitcher: a 5'11" lefty with the fastball of a 6'3" righty.  It's his best pitch and he can throw it with a range of speeds; some scouting reports have him around 93-96 and others more like 91-94, but can occasionally touch 98.  Breaking ball is his second-best pitch and the change-up is third; someone patiently sitting on the change-up could easily strike out before they see one but could destroy it if it comes.  Finnegan does strike out a ton of hitters - so it's not the best idea necessarily to wait for that one pitch - and his heavy fastball limits quality contact.  He's allowed just eight doubles this year.  In his last start - Game 1 against Pepperdine - he allowed three hits and struck out 7 in 6 1/3.

Bullpen: The availability of closer Riley Ferrell (3-1, 0.87, 66 Ks) may be in doubt, as he went 1 2/3 innings and threw 33 pitches against Texas Tech; that said, they did play the early game and Ferrell would have over 48 hours of rest.  Ferrell has a .138 Op.BA and over 1.5 K's per inning, and can absolutely deal it.  The rest of the pen is perfectly fresh and never got off the bench on Sunday, giving TCU full use of workhorses Trey Teakell (6-0, 2.22, 36 Ks) and Alex Young (1-3, 2.53, 39 Ks).  Teakell is a righthander and Young a southpaw.  Both can go 2 or 3 innings if necessary; TCU leans very heavily on those two and doesn't otherwise have a tremendously deep pen.  Unless UVA knocks Finnegan out of the box really, really early, there aren't any other pitchers we're likely to see.

Synopsis: TCU is known as a pitching-and-fielding team.  They'd be a formidable opponent in a three-game series, as they have a very deep starting rotation, if not quite the bullpen depth UVA has.  Brandon Waddell is a very fine pitcher; Finnegan is probably better.  UVA has more options in the bullpen, but in a one-game affair, that's not going to matter.

However, this lineup reminds me a lot of a more veteran Maryland.  It's mostly juco transfers, and very experienced, but there isn't that one really scary player.  It's just a good lineup with minimal weak points, lacking major league firepower.  As you'll recall, Waddell tossed an excellent game against the Terps; TCU's lineup is a degree or two better, but Ole Miss had a much better one.  If UVA can find a few runs against Finnegan - and he wouldn't be the first ace-quality pitcher the Hoos have had just enough success against - they should be able to sneak out another low-scoring win.

Prediction: UVA 3, TCU 2

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It's at this point where I humbly apologize for the unexpected disappearance.  Unexpected to me, anyway.  You might be used to it by now.  I did fully intend to preview the Ole Miss game.  I installed a new hard drive and figured re-installing Windows would be a simple matter, only it wasn't.  I eventually found a fix online, and I have no idea why it worked or why the damn thing was broke in the first place, but I'm not arguing.  I'm back online, albeit with a slightly delayed FOV COY contest.

game preview: TCU

Date/Time: Saturday, September 22; 12:00

TV: ESPN

Record against the Frogs: 1-1

Last meeting: TCU 30, UVA 14; 9/12/09; Charlottesville

Last weekend: GT 56, UVA 20; TCU 20, Kansas 6

Line: TCU by 19.5

Opposing blog: Frogs O' War

Nice Froggies, nice Froggies.  UVA's stretch of doom comes to an end after this weekend in Texas, where the Hoos will have all they can handle from 17th-ranked TCU.  This is the best team we've played so far, which is a depressing thought when you lost to the not-best team by five touchdowns.  A win here would be a big step for UVA's obvious recruiting aspirations in Texas, but...yeah.  They're ranked 17th.

It's a little bit weird that we set up a home-and-home three years apart, but there you go.  How long ago was that game?  James Johnson committed to UVA hoops the week after, which means his entire association with UVA came in between TCU games.  TCU was in the Mountain West, and their entire association with the Big East came in between UVA games.  We were running the Gregg Brandon spread (badly) and as a result the last meeting with these guys was one of the dreariest experiences of my life.  Jameel Sewell was still the quarterback.    Both teams are better now than they were then, but that's not saying much on our part, and TCU is legit.

-- UVA run offense vs. TCU run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 36 carries, 128 yards, 3.6 avg, 2 TDs
Perry Jones: 27 carries, 81 yards, 3.0 avg., 1 TD

UVA offense:
104.7 yards/game, 3.31 yards/attempt
101st of 124 (national), 8th of 12 (ACC)

TCU defense:
60.5 yards/game, 2.05 yards/attempt
9th of 124 (national), 1st of 10 (B12)

Again with it being still early, you can't read a whole lot into the above numbers, at least as far as TCU is concerned.  Half of that is from letting Grambling do nothing.  TCU's run defense probably isn't quite that good.

Then again, "not that good" is still "good enough" when it comes to stopping the UVA attack (and I use that word liberally.)  Mike London and Bill Lazor have both openly expressed frustration with the play of the interior line and their ability to open holes.  Conner Davis pretty much isn't ready for the starting job, but Cody Wallace is hurt and Davis is the only option unless you scoot Morgan Moses inside and start a redshirt freshman (Jay Whitmire) at tackle.

For TCU's part, they had a somewhat rocky offseason, losing some potential starters in the front six (TCU runs a 4-2-5 defense similar to Duke's) when it turned out a few of them were doubling as street pharmacists.  Their linebackers and rover safety, however, do a good job filling the run lanes.  LB Joel Hasley is leading the team so far with 17 tackles in the first two games, and the positions of the top four tacklers are LB, rover safety, LB, backup LB.  Besides Hasley, LB Kenny Cain and backup LB Paul Dawson have been leading the charge so far, and safety Jonathan Anderson has been a very promising player as well so far in his career.

In the past, Lazor has done a good job using playcalling to cover up personnel weaknesses.  He did a good job in his first year here setting Marc Verica up for success.  Attacking the TCU defense will probably involve the outside.  The TCU DEs are fairly undersized.  Senior leader Ross Forrest is out for the year, so the Frogs turned to freshman Devonte Fields.  Fields has done well getting into the backfield but can also be pushed off the line.  On the other side, Stansly Maponga hasn't yet been a major factor, though he earned a bunch of preseason accolades.  If TCU gets the production they expect from Maponga, he could close off the lanes on his side, but he's been quiet so far.

If Lazor and Mike Rocco are able to establish the pass, UVA should then be able to find some success with draws and traps.  And in any case, you'll probably see an emphasis on running to the edge in order to try and take advantage of potential mismatches, and get the linebackers moving side to side.  Simply butting our heads against the middle is not likely to work; our line isn't likely to be able to get any push and the TCU linebackers are too good at this for us to consistently have any success that way.

Kansas is not a great team, but they were able to eke out a respectable 4.1 yards a carry on the ground against TCU.  Can the Hoos reach that level?  Until they prove it, no.  There will probably be the occasional flirtation with success, but not sustainably.  TCU has a solid history of stopping the run, so they get the benefit of any doubt.  Besides, the way TCU moves the ball through the air we might be forced to give up on the run before the game is over.

-- UVA pass offense vs. TCU pass defense

Quarterback:
Mike Rocco: 61/95, 64.2%; 712 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs; 7.5 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 13 rec., 172 yards, 1 TD
Kevin Parks: 10 rec., 80 yards, 0 TD

UVA offense:
274.3 yards/game, 7.3 yards/attempt
64th of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)

TCU defense:
164.5 yards/game, 6.2 yards/attempt
43rd of 124 (national), 5th of 10 (B12)

If we want to win the game, this is where it has to happen.  You can try and control the ball by running it (and we certainly have to limit the time Casey Pachall has to work with) but the way things have been, that's a great way to go three-and-out and not control the ball at all.

No, I expect Bill Lazor will put on his creative hat and try all sorts of passes.  Rocco will be given a lot of work this week, in the passing-as-ersatz-running-game department.  TCU has a respectable secondary, and they get a good pass rush, but that's not really in the calculation this week.  If they had the Philadelphia Eagles' secondary we'd still be passing, because that's the kind of game this is going to be.

A word about that pass rush - it's solid, and the 4-2-5 allows you to try some interesting blitzy stuff.  Joel Hasley has two sacks coming in on the blitz, another point of pressure on the interior line.  The aforementioned undersized defensive ends are that way because they can generate a good speed rush.  Fortunately, we have the ability to use the TCU aggressiveness against them.  The running backs and tight ends have been very active participants in the passing game, which gives us a chance to throw at a blitz for big yards.

Regardless, as I said: Lazor will probably call his plays with an eye toward establishing what he wants to do, not as a reaction to what the defense shows him.  Look for about a 60-40 or even 65-35 playcall split in favor of the pass, and for the TEs and RBs to get the majority of the receptions.  UVA has to have some semblance of ball control to win, and the way to do that will be to call a bunch of makable passes with an eye toward staying in bounds after the catch.

-- TCU run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Matthew Tucker: 19 carries, 100 yards, 5.3 avg., 0 TDs
B.J. Catalon: 13 carries, 63 yards, 4.8 avg., 0 TDs

TCU offense:
203.5 yards/game, 5.22 yards/attempt
33rd of 124 (national), 8th of 10 (B12)

UVA defense:
203.33 yards/game, 5.40 yards/attempt
109th of 124 (national), 12th of 12 (ACC)

Once again, the numbers lie: obviously those defensive stats are heavily influenced by the Georgia Tech game, and TCU, thank the stars, does not run the triple option.  Truth is, the best comparison so far is Penn State, albeit with better personnel here.

TCU appeared to take a major hit with the loss of top running back and home run threat Waymon James to a knee injury this week.  (Sounds like Elmer Fudd trying to pronounce the stadium where the Tampa Bay Bucs play.)  It might not matter though; Matthew Tucker has run pretty effectively too, these first couple games.  James was a lot better, but Tucker certainly was no slouch.

Our D-line will have their hands full with a TCU offensive line that doesn't include a single 200-pounder.  But the level of competition TCU has faced so far makes it tough to judge their abilities.  That said, Tucker has a very, very good body of work for his career, so ultimately I don't draw a lot of comfort from James's absence.  Tucker is a biggish, powerful back, and B.J. Catalon can be a nice change of pace, so TCU fans might notice James's absence, but we probably won't.

Still.  The truth is, every time TCU keeps it on the ground, that's a win for us, given the ugliness of the passing game matchups.  Even after last week's crimes against football, I still believe in the strength of our defense against a conventional run.  I very much expect Tucker to be held below his career average of 5.5 yards a carry, and better yet, a run play means they're not passing the ball.  For that latter reason, I don't think TCU will run the ball much more than we will.  A 60-40 split in favor of the pass is likely, until and unless TCU gets a lead big enough to run down the clock.

-- TCU pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Casey Pachall: 33/39, 84.6%; 536 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs; 13.74 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Josh Boyce: 9 rec., 168 yards, 2 TDs
Brandon Carter: 9 rec., 162 yards, 3 TDs

TCU offense:
305.5 yards/game, 13.0 yards/attempt
1st of 124 (national), 1st of 10 (B12)

UVA defense:
193.3 yards/game, 5.9 yards/attempt
29th of 124 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)

DOOM.  Casey Pachall's stats might be a little pumped up by getting easy long plays against Grambling, but whatever the competition, you have to respect an 85% completion rate.  This is where we get to the part that people are looking at when they put an almost 20-point line on this game.

At wide receiver, Josh Boyce and Brandon Carter are very good players and Pachall's favorite targets.  Boyce was a hair shy of a 1,000-yard season last year.  Neither are very big, so a size matchup with our smaller corners isn't a problem, but they're tough covers regardless.  The matchup problem comes when 6'4" receiver LaDarius Brown comes on the field.

UVA may have to go nickel a lot in this game, since our linebackers aren't too likely to be able to consistently stay with a receiver like Brown.  TCU doesn't use the tight end in the passing game, so Maurice Canady is going to get a ton of work.  That'll complicate things; you know how brutally inexperienced the secondary is, and any time you're taking an experienced linebacker off the field for a true freshman corner, you're holding your breath.  Against TCU that's not going to be just a third-down thing.

I just hate our chances here.  Pass rush or die is the way it has to be, and that could use some real work, as we have three sacks this year and Steve Greer has two of them, both in the Penn State game against the cement-footed Matt McGloin.  There's no way Pachall doesn't rack up an easy 350 yards on Saturday, unless he snaps his leg in two during warmups.  Dude's got weapons and knows how to use 'em.  The prediction is death and destruction.

-- Outlook

This game starts at 11 AM Central time, so the main hope is that TCU fans and students are too hung over to bother showing up.  Otherwise, it's a road game, at a weird start time (worse for us because the TCU guys have had 11 AM starts before, and we haven't) against an offense well-equipped to take advantage of our weaknesses.  Yeah, that line of 20 or so looks about right.  I'll start to believe we can win if Mike Rocco is able to match Casey Pachall pass for pass.  I think that's doable, it's just not all that likely.  Fortunately, this is the last we gonna die game for a long time.  The next one might just be on Thanksgiving weekend.  (Or it might be a little earlier and I don't notice because we're coming off what I hope is a four-game win streak starting next weekend.)  At any rate, we gonna die.

-- Prediction summary

(Ed. Enjoying a scotch (or one of various other fine beverages) while watching Thursday night football and writing the game preview is one of my favorite things to do.  It has its downside, however.  With that in mind, here are the predictions that I forgot about last night.)

-- Not counting obvious attempts to mercifully run down the clock, the playcalling split for both teams will be higher than 60-40 in favor of the pass.

-- Both quarterbacks will complete better than 65% of their passes.

-- Casey Pachall will top 350 yards.

-- UVA's running game again fails to generate 4 yards a carry.

-- More of Rocco's passes are caught by TEs and RBs than WRs.

-- Final score: TCU 38, UVA 21

-- Rest of the ACC:

Boston College off.

Virginia Tech vs. Bowling Green, 12:00: Maroon and orange vs. brown and orange.  I think they're trolling everyone's fashion sense.

Maryland @ West Virginia, 12:00: The good news is, we're not the deadest ACC team this weekend.  Maryland is.

Wake Forest vs. Army, 12:30: Big-scoring game, this.  Army's defense is absolutely dreadful.

Miami @ Georgia Tech, 3:00: Miami gave up 52 points to Kansas State because they were positively owned in the trenches.  It wouldn't surprise to see a third-straight 50-pointer out of GT.

North Carolina vs. East Carolina, 3:30: It's not like UNC has a bowl trip to protect, what with sanctions and all, but if they did, this game would be a must-win for eligibility purposes, having lost two games in a row now.

Duke vs. Memphis, 6:00: Memphis is truly horrible, which makes them an ideal future Big East team.

NC State vs. The Citadel, 6:00: The Citadel is 3-0 and threatening to muster up what would be only their second winning season since 1998.  They're still not a threat to knock off the Pack, though.  One hopes.

Clemson @ Florida State, 8:00: ACC why u make all best matchups in September???

game preview: TCU

Date/Time: Friday, November 19; 6:00

TV: Nyet

History against the Frogs: 0-0

Last matchup: N/A

Last game: UVA 69, Winthrop 48 (11/15); TCU 103, Austin College 45 (11/14)

Opposing blogs: none that care about hoops

KenPom breakdown:

Tempo:
UVA: 61.1 (#341)
TCU: 67.6 (#169)

Offense:
UVA: 103.7 (#105)
TCU: 100.5 (#169)

Defense:
UVA: 92.7 (#31)
TCU: 102.3 (#214)

(Explanation of KenPom stats: "Tempo" number is number of offensive possessions per game.  "Offense" and "Defense" numbers are points scored/allowed per 100 possessions.  All numbers are adjusted, using the magic KenPom formula; therefore they are not actual, but projections of predicted results against an average team on a neutral court.)

Friday, we have a game that nobody can watch, against a mediocre opponent against whom we have no history whatsoever.  Why, then, a game preview?  It's not like I did one for SC State.  Well, because I've called this one of the most important games of the year - if not the most - and that deserves a preview.  Life on the bubble means having your fate controlled by the RPI, and that means playing good competition.  And this is our preseason tournament, so a win garners the reward of playing that competition.  Win this game, and the likely reward is a game against RPI-boosting Drexel.  Lose, and the likely punishment is a game against RPI-killing Norfolk State.  The ultimate goal of this tournament is to get Big Easter Marquette onto the schedule, and hopefully beat them, too.

About the opponent:

TCU is a football school, OK.  Similar to Boise State, they've hung their hat on football in order to try and raise the school's profile; in this, they've succeeded with a Big 12 invite.  However, that prioritization is reflected in their basketball results; they basically end up playing out the string to .500 records and no postseason most years.

-- When UVA has the ball

I can't believe I'm saying this, but: Assane Sene can be used as - an offensive weapon.  Troof.  In fact, this will be the case any time we face an opponent like TCU, which has nobody taller than 6'9" in their rotation.  Two games now, we have seen Sene assert himself on the offensive end with left-handed lay-ins, baby hooks, and general abuse of those shorter than him.  Sene actually got into double figures against Winthrop.

The team is going to have to get used to the idea of pounding it inside.  I don't think that's wired into their consciousness yet, which is understandable - that hasn't been a great strategy in the past.  This is the kind of game, though, where they can take advantage of a size advantage and get Sene and the other post players the ball.

TCU has historically been a team that allows a very high shooting percentage.  And under current coach Jim Christian, TCU has never finished in the top 300 nationally in blocked shot percentage - that is, the KenPom metric that gives you the percentage of defensive possessions that end in blocked shots.  This looks like it's going to continue; Florida-Gulf Coast, which is TCU's only D-I opponent so far this year (and has been D-I for all of like five years) shot over 61% against TCU, and over 42% from beyond three.  This is not a very good defensive team we're talking about.

Maybe I'm a little jaded from the Winthrop game, where shots were just not falling, but I'd like to see UVA start banging it inside and see how that works.  I bet it works pretty good.  TCU's tallest rotation player, Amric Fields, weighs in at 210 pounds.  He won't be able to guard either Mike Scott or Assane Sene.

The other interesting matchup that UVA may be able to exploit is at point guard, where TCU has a pair of smallish players.  I don't have any idea if Sammy Zeglinski will be available on Friday; if not, Malcolm Brogdon will once again be the backup point guard, and he'll have a huge size advantage on whoever guards him; TCU has VT transfer Hank Thorns, who checks in at 5'9, 165, and one-time UVA recruit Kyan Anderson, who isn't much bigger.  TCU has better size at the 2 and 3, but they give up inches and pounds at the 1.  Brogdon in particular may look to post up a defender, or draw a double team coming to help and hopefully find the resulting open man.

On the boards, UVA's attention should focus on forwardish-guard J.R. Cadot, TCU's ballhawk rebounder.  Garlon Green is a starting forward, but he's not a rebounder - he mainly gets only what his height hands him.  Like Fields, he's rather skinny and is more of a guard in a forward's body.

The final word, I think, is that UVA's point total depends on UVA.  There isn't much that TCU brings that's different from what we've seen or what we'll see in the future.  The UVA offense still has work to do to find its rhythm, and I think we can expect to see more of that herky-jerkiness until they really gel into a cohesive unit.

-- When TCU has the ball

TCU brings back two of its best players from last year in forward Garlon Green and point guard Hank Thorns.  Green is the leading returning scorer, and will probably lead the team this year.  TCU brought in a large infusion of transfer talent that shows up eligible this year, and Thorns may look to defer the scoring a little bit in favor of being a distributor.  Last year he averaged 7 assists per game (which was fourth-best in the country) against just 2.6 turnovers, so he is a threat.

However, when Thorns is not in the game, UVA should look to take advantage of Kyan Anderson, who has been turnover-prone in TCU's first two games.  TCU has thrown him into the fire as the backup point guard, and his numbers just scream "freshman."  His small-sample-size turnover ratio is barely above 1-to-1, and UVA should look to take advantage and create some fast break opportunities when Thorns is out of the game.

TCU's lopsided win against Division III Austin College skews their stats pretty heftily, but it's clear that the dangermen here are Thorns, Green, and Cadot.  Thorns rescued the FGCU game by hitting a layup in the closing seconds and played all but five minutes of the game.  Jontel Evans defending Thorns - that should be fun.  Our first string is probably better than theirs, but our second string is definitely better, and it's when the bench enters the game that UVA should look to go on its big runs.

-- Outlook

TCU has some players - Hank Thorns and Garlon Green are likely to be the best players we've seen so far.  J.R Cadot - not bad.  But UVA's defensive effort so far has been unimpeachable, and that's likely to continue.  When we find our offense, look out.  Full disclosure - this post has been brought to you by Sailor Jerry's, and not a small amount of it either.  (I got out early from class and decided to celebrate.)  However, the rum cannot obscure this fact: TCU is not good.  Not really "bad", but not good.  A loss here would be disappointing to say the least.  This game will have its competitive moments, but if we've got the tournament team that I think we do, it should be at least a 15-point win.

-- Final score: UVA 70, TCU 53

i have the urge to poke things listlessly with a stick

It might prove a better offensive strategy.

Let me set the stage for you a bit here. Yesterday both Michigan and UVA were on at the same time, which is obnoxious whenever that happens. The solution was to Tivo UVA and watch Michigan live, then go back and watch the Hoos do whatever they did. And don't ever say I don't do nothin' for you guys, because go back and watch the Hoos is exactly what I did, knowing the score and everything.

Certain impressions jumped out at me from following the game on the ticker and then checking the box score before firing up the Tivo, not all of which survived the actual viewing of the game. The major one stayed put, though: we got efficiently and pretty thoroughly machined by a better team, and it was not a surprise. It was positively depressing and life-out-of-you-sucking and I don't recall a loss even remotely like it last year. Last year the early season losses were blowouts that left you desperately hoping for next week to come ASAP because ok that team was a lot better than we thought but next week is Duke and they suck and we can finally get this season back on track. And then the late-season losses came as crushing disappointments because in all four of them you could point to mistakes that you know we shouldn't have made that just made you go "aggghhh stupid stupid stupid stupid" and bang your forehead. And then next week couldn't come soon enough because there was something to play for every week: the bowl eligibility that never came.

This time around it's just ugghhhhh. Next week can take its sweet time coming, thanks.

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I haven't got much to say about the defense. Once again they didn't embarrass themselves, and they sorta kept us in the game until it was pretty clear the offense wasn't doing its share in that department. In fact if the offense had shown even the slightest hint of life and we had even one measly touchdown by halftime, the crowd would have been roaring and thinking upset. The defense is adequate, for now. It'll keep us in games.

The offense. One of those impressions I mentioned that didn't survive actual viewing of the game was this: "Jameel Sewell gets one more game and if it looks like that again, then turn the reins over to Marc Verica." False: Sewell was not the problem. It's worse than that. Way worse. How much worse? Here goes - Heather Dinich was right: the wide receivers are garbage. Sewell officially carried the ball 21 times, and I didn't keep track, but probably at least eight or ten of those were because the receivers weren't open and he had to scramble and/or eat a sack.

That's problem #1. I suppose we should have seen that one coming. Problem #2 was the pass protection. I refuse to take any blame for not foreseeing that one. I mean, are you serious? The one thing this entire team did consistently well from start to finish in 2008 and that's what breaks down spectacularly when we can least afford it? Isaac Cain in particular had a really brutal day, and come to think of it, not just in pass protection either.

Third and final major problem: Pretty much the whole offensive philosophy. The CavsCorner analysis summarizes basically as "throw the ball downfield more" which I agree with but it's not the whole story. Predictability is the problem. TCU knew exactly what we were going to do, and we kept on doing it. And I've seen this movie before. I kept thinking it was a different show because the personnel was different, but nope: just like Michigan in 2008, it's "Attack of the Unimaginative Spread Offense Part 2." I don't know how many times I saw Michigan run the same zone read on third and 8 that they ran twice before that got them to third and eight in the first place. There's less zone read in this offense but c'mon man: it's a playbook, not a playpage. Open it up past Chapter 1, please.

The final score was 30-14 but don't be fooled by either number. The offense's 14 points were meaningless and the 30 points allowed by the defense would have been fewer if the offense could convert the occasional third down.

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There are positives, even so. The running game was functional. The box score sure doesn't show it, but we were able, at times, to move the ball on the ground. If there were a passing game, there'd be a running game and then whoa look out there'd be a whole offense. Of course, you've gotta fix the wide receivers, the offensive line, and the playcalling, which are three very-not-insignificant pieces of a passing game. But still.

Here's your second serving of sunny-side up: winning three of the next four is not inconceivable. Southern Miss kinda sucks. Indiana really sucks, and so does Maryland. (Forget about UNC, it ain't happening this year.) We suck too, of course, and all three of them will be looking at us as a perfect chance to pad their records and inch closer to bowl eligibility. So I'll probably come back and choke on these words when we're 1-5 and waiting for Georgia Tech to roll into town, but whatever - three of the next four is doable. If that happens, we're 3-3 and clinging to our bowl hopes. Anything less and that's the season.

game preview: TCU

Date/Time: September 12, 3:30 PM

TV: ESPNUVA

Last matchup: UVA 20, TCU 10 (1994 Independence Bowl)

Last week: never happened. You hear me? That never happened!

Line: TCU by 11.5

TCU blogs: Mountain West Connection (actually it's an MWC-in-general blog but they had to pick a team affiliation to get into the Blogpoll and TCU was what they picked so whatever.)

Injury report:

OUT: CB Mike Parker, WR Bobby Smith

DOUBTFUL: QB Vic Hall, WR Dontrelle Inman, OT Lamar Milstead, LB Billy Schautz

QUESTIONABLE: None

PROBABLE: DE Nate Collins, WR Patch Duda, NT Nick Jenkins, QB Jameel Sewell, WR Matt Snyder, TE Joe Torchia

Vic Hall arrrggghhh. There'd been word of him getting banged up last week but it is not cool to see him listed as doubtful. You have to figure that Sewell will start given the (probably excessive) faith the coaches showed but also given that he's also on the injury report and, you know, the three interceptions, he'll be on a short leash and we'll see quite a bit of Marc Verica.

HOW WE CAN WIN:

- For the love of Christ and pizza, do not turn over the football seven times. Obviously.

- The tackles have to be excellent. TCU's Jerry Hughes is the nation's fourth-best draft-eligible DE according to the Coiffed One, Mel Kiper. He's got the potential to really blow up our offense even without our help.

- Stop turning over the football. I mean it.

- The linebackers need to continue to improve. For the most part, they did a good job containing W&M's ground game last week, but R.J. Archer hurt us on the ground. Now there's another running quarterback to deal with: TCU's Andy Dalton was their third-leading rusher last year and this is on a team with the rare quality of having had more rushing yards than passing yards. There's only three linemen and they can only do so much. It's on the linebackers to turn eight-yard scrambles into two-yard scrambles.

- I said stop turning over the damn football.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- Do everything this week just like last week.

- Especially play offense. The passing was really, really bad, but the ground game was pathetic. Take away Hall's touchdown run and we averaged 2.5 yards a carry. We will get blown the hell up out of the water if we play offense like that, and TCU just so happens to have had the best defense in the country last year. They allowed 1.7 yards a carry. We absolutely will not score if Gregg Brandon can't figure something out. Big goose egg.

- That's really all there is to it. I'm a little worried about Dalton's ability to run, but their offense overall isn't world-beatingly scary. But our offense is, and not in the can-beat-you-so-many-ways sense. More like, Frankenstein-on-ecstasy scary.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

Well, hell. I can't look much stupider than I did last week, can I? So what the heck, I think we keep this game close. Not to say we win, no. But we should be able to pull some kind of a lame-o moral victory out of this. The TCU defense is too strong and our offense has serious issues that go beyond the turnovers. And don't count out the Al Groh magic. It's not like he hasn't been here before. The guy knows a million different ways to infuriate the fan base, and a million and one ways to wiggle out of a tight spot. If we get blown out, which is eminently possible, that will be a bigger warning sign than last week was, because it'll be decisive proof that last week was no fluke. But a tight game, even if it's a loss, should give us reason enough to continue deluding ourselves that the ACC season still hasn't started and we still have enough time to turn it around and yadda yadda.

REST OF THE ACC

Clemson at Georgia Tech, going on right now

Wake Forest vs. Stanford, 12:00
Duke at Army, 12:00
North Carolina at Connecticut, 12:00
Virginia Tech vs. Marshall, 1:30
Boston College vs. Kent State, 2:00
NC State vs. Murray State, 6:00
Maryland vs. James Madison, 6:00
Florida State vs. Jacksonville State, 6:00