Showing posts with label st. john's. Show all posts
Showing posts with label st. john's. Show all posts

Monday, March 25, 2013

weekend review

I have to admit, I've spent all my grand narratives regarding the St. John's game on Sunday.  UVA beat St. John's at our own place in the NIT's second round exactly 10 years to the day they lost to St. John's on the road... in the second round of the NIT.  And you knew that from reading the game preview.  I guess it's been that kind of year for that stuff, having earlier beaten a top-5-ranked team exactly 11 years to the day they last did it.  Is Wednesday some kind of anniversary of the last time we played Iowa?  Probably not, but one can hope, I suppose.

I'm really just relieved to see the offense reappear, alive and well.  At 1.06 points per possession, it wasn't exactly awe-inspiring, but it worked.  I call it pretty good for playing against a solid defensive team like St. John's.  The stat that hit me the most: 24 buckets, 19 assists.  Bruce Pearl made mention of that at halftime (I think it was 11 and 9 at that point) and he hit the mark.  That's solid ball.  The cynic would say it means we don't have anyone who can create their own bucket, and there's a grain of truth to that, too.  But it's the coach's job to figure out how to make do in that case, and the assist total is a testament to how well that's going.

UVA, by the way, has an A/FG ratio of about .6 for the season, which places them in the top 50, so Sunday wasn't an outlying phenomenon.  They've been creating each other's offense all season.  Anyone who bemoans Jontel Evans's insistence on never shooting a three ought to keep that in mind.

So, then.  Iowa.  KenPom called it "one of the best NIT quarterfinals in decades," and yes, haha that's not saying much, but I think that's kind of the point, too.  You don't usually get such interesting games in the NIT, at least, not played in locales other than Madison Square Garden.  And this year, not there either.  It's possible we could get UVA-Maryland, round 3, and while the chance to beat the Twerps thrice in a season is something each of us should cherish deeply, the world won't care much about a conference rematch.  (Yes, again, to the extent they care about the NIT haha.)  Southern Miss is another 1 seed - not exactly a school that moves the needle when Brett Favre isn't involved.  Bob Morris killed off the other actual interesting 1 seed in the tournament.

More bullets:

-- Taylor Barnette, take a bow.  I don't think he'll ever really be a full-fledged member of the rotation with guaranteed minutes every game.  He's going to have to scrap for every single one.  But if he keeps playing like that he'll be an indispensible cog.  I'm only partly talking about the shooting and partly talking about the terrific entry pass to a cutting Jontel Evans.  He may never start a game but he could very well turn out better than the reserves on 3/4ths of the teams in the league, which makes him valuable.

-- Akil Mitchell has never really been the kind of guy to start things.  But he's provokable, hence the shoulder bump on the way back to the bench that was rewarded with a shove into the scorer's table.  Even on TV it seemed like the St. John's guys were an edgy bunch who weren't far from getting T'ed up.  Although I did think the refs did the right thing by not calling anything when Justin Anderson was pushed to the ground, because he wasn't really pushed to the ground, he was just pushed.  The ground part was his own doing.  I don't really like our guys doing that - unless we're playing Duke or UNC, in which case it wouldn't bother me if they went full Italian-soccer-player out there.  Taste of your own medicine and all.

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I'm not even going to waste more than a couple minutes on lacrosse.  What a humiliation.  Dom Starsia said he "thought we were too tentative in the first half" which is a mild understatement.  I would've put it more like "we didn't display the slightest fucking interest in going anywhere near the net" but I guess Dom has to be PG when microphones are present.  The fact that Rhody Heller had a career high in both saves and goals allowed should tell you all you need to know about how much interest the defense had in the game, too.  I didn't see the second half.  Apparently the team bothered to score once or twice.  I might chalk that up to Hopkins deciding 9-1 was a safe lead and letting off the gas a little, but I don't know, I switched to baseball.  So that's what we're gonna do here.

It's a much more pleasant topic.  While the lacrosse team is playing its way out of relevance, the baseball team is playing its way back in.  From unranked in most polls to a consensus top ten team in the country after a sweep of NC State, which not coincidentally or surprisingly dropped out of every top 25.  Losing the yearly series to NC State has been just as much a given as death, taxes, and playing like ass after finals break, and that was one of two ACC teams Brian O'Connor hadn't swept.  (FSU is the other.)  BOC was something like 9-18 against NC State before this weekend.

Much credit goes to Brandon Waddell for matching NC State's fearsome ace, Carlos Rodon, inning for inning until both handed off to the bullpen in the sixth inning.  And then to Austin Young for holding steady for the rest of Game 1 while the Wolfpack bullpen proceeded to melt down.  In fact, UVA's pen didn't give up a run all series until Game 3, when Kyle Crockett finally let one sneak across in the top of the ninth.  We forgive him, because he did an outstanding job preserving a one-run lead the day before.  And in fact, the only walks all weekend were a pair issued by Nick Howard in the third game.  That'll make for a happy coaching staff.

UVA's midweek game is Towson (written that way on purpose, in a form of solidarity), which has been a reliable scheduling partner for years, but this looks like the end of the road for that particular agreement, given that school's recent decision to cut baseball (and men's soccer too.)  Next season, Towson will sponsor five men's sports and eleven women's sports.  Just sayin'.

*************************************

It's been a while since the last recruiting board update, during which time not one but two very, very blue-chip recruits have committed to the football program, so let's get a move-on here.  The changes you'll find:

-- Moved S Quin Blanding and OT Steven Moss from blue to orange.  Moss committed this weekend, giving UVA two Rivals top-100 commits before April.  What this class will lack in quantity it has already made up for in quality.

-- Moved DT Derrick Nnadi from green to blue.  Nnadi was once genuinely wavering between UVA and VT, and we might see some wavers back in that direction sometimes, but I think the UVA pull is going to win out in the end.  Even if it doesn't, UVA's chances look good enough to justify that move.

-- Moved RB Cortavious Givens from green to yellow.

-- Moved OT Justin Falcinelli from yellow to red.

-- Moved DB C.J. Reavis from red to yellow.

-- Removed OTs Trip McNeill and Coleman Thomas and DE Andrew Trumbetti from yellow.  Committed to Duke, Tennessee, and Notre Dame, respectively.

It sounds odd to say, but there aren't really more than 10-12 spots left in this class already.  And the four guys in blue are likely enough to occupy four of those spots.  It will be a summer sadly bereft of commitment frenzies, but a satisfying Signing Day nevertheless.

Saturday, March 23, 2013

game preview: St. John's


Date/Time: Sunday, March 24; 11:00 AM

TV: ESPN

Record against the Johnnies: 0-7

Last meeting: SJU 73, UVA 63; 3/24/03, Queens, NY

Last game: UVA 67, NSU 56 (3/19); SJU 63, St. Joe's 61 (3/19)

KenPom:

Tempo:
UVA: 60.8 (#333)
SJU: 67.6 (#99)

Offense:
UVA: 106.9 (#75)
SJU: 98.2 (#208)

Defense:
UVA: 88.8 (#16)
SJU: 92.0 (#37)

Pythag:
UVA: .8700 (#31)
SJU: .6623 (#101)

Projected lineups:

Virginia:

PG: Jontel Evans (4.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 4.9 apg)
SG: Paul Jesperson (4.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 0.9 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (16.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.2 apg)
SF: Justin Anderson (6.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.3 apg)
PF: Akil Mitchell (13.3 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.5 apg)

St. John's:

PG: Phil Greene (9.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.6 apg)
SG: Jamal Branch (6.4 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 2.8 apg)
SF: Sir'Dominic Pointer (7.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.8 apg)
PF: JaKarr Sampson (14.9 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.1 apg)
C: Chris Obekpa (3.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.1 apg)

Sunday's second-round game brings us the kind of matchup we ought to be getting more of outside postseason tournaments.  More east-coast home-and-homes and fewer SWAC snacks?  It might help the RPI, you know?

Anyway, we don't see much of St. John's, but there's a little history lesson here anyway.  The game will be exactly 10 years to the day UVA last played St. John's - and in the second round of the NIT, no less.  UVA lost that one, but it was on the road to a team that would eventually win the entire tournament.  (And then vacate it a couple years later when it was found they were playing with an ineligible player who was ineligible because they were paying him under the table.)

Awaiting the winner of this one is Iowa, the bracket's 3 seed and the only Big Ten team in the Little Dance.  KenPom-wise, UVA and Iowa are the two best teams in the whole field of 32, so it's no surprise they advanced to the Eliteish Eight.  It'd be nice to set up what would clearly be the marquee game of the third round.

-- UVA on offense

Looking (very deep) below the surface of the ugliness of the Norfolk State game, you find a UVA team that's dragging itself out of a shooting slump.  It probably wasn't evident with all the turnovers, but UVA did shoot a respectable 5-of-13 from three and shot better than 50% from the field in the second half.  The problems they had - the turnovers and free-throw shooting - should be more or less correctable, especially if they've had some decent practices this week.

The obvious #1 concern for UVA on Sunday will be the Johnnies' shot-blocking fiend, freshman Chris Obekpa.  Obekpa stands 6'9", which isn't extraordinary by any means (on a basketball court) so guys are lulled into trying to shoot over him.  Then he unwinds his 7'5" wingspan.  Obekpa has 131 blocks this year, more than four per game, and blocks 16% of all opponents' shots when he's on the floor.  That kind of prowess can really alter your offense, and guys like Akil Mitchell and Justin Anderson in particular should be aware of where he is and not put themselves in a position where they realize it too late.

The Storm also have Sir'Dominic Pointer, an athletic wing who can be very disruptive when he's in the right place.  But Pointer doesn't have the game-altering skills that Obekpa has, and Anderson should be able to match his athleticism.

St. John's is a little bit like a better Norfolk State; very good defense, not much offense.  Even in losing efforts they've held some quality tournament teams below a point a possession.  They don't do it with turnovers as much; it's Obekpa and good interior defense that keeps teams out of the paint.  Since UVA is reluctant to force the ball down low, and often content to pass the ball around the perimeter for half the shot clock, a lot will depend on the shooting.  More so than usual, I think.  If UVA drops some threes early, they could blow the Storm out of the building.  Otherwise they're going to end up in a grindfest that, as with Norfolk State, relies partly on the opponents' offensive ineptitude to keep them in it.

-- UVA on defense

St. John's is an interesting proposition here.  They're the worst offensive team in the Big East, and would be in the ACC too, and most of those numbers are with leading scorer D'Angelo Harrison.  Sadly for St. John's, Harrison is suspended for the duration of the season.  That leaves them with...not much.

Sir'Dominic Pointer was the hero of the St. Joseph's game on Tuesday; Pointer hit a fadeaway jumper as time ran out to break the tie and give his team the win.  He and Jakarr Sampson qualify as the Johnnies' top offensive threats.  Only a freshman, Sampson is a skilled player but not yet strong enough to be a huge factor close to the rim, and he's no three-point shooter.

Come to think of it, basically nobody is.  Harrison was the second-best long-range shooter on the team, percentage-wise.  And he only shot .315.  Pointer is at .360, but only occasionally shoots, with 25 attempts all season.  Point guard Phil Greene is at .231, and bench guard Marco Bourgault is at .301 with only 73 attempts this year.  (And 75 total; a three-point specialist who can barely shoot threes.)  That is basically the full list of distance threats on St. John's.  Compared to most teams, they rarely shoot it, which makes them uniquely poorly positioned to take advantage of the pack-line defense.

In fact, basketball has generally evolved to emphasize shots at the rim and three-pointers, and eschew the low-percentage, low-reward two-point jumper.  St. John's plays the opposite.  Largely out of necessity, because they have neither a dominant post player nor anyone who can shoot threes.  And as a result, they don't shoot a lot of free throws, which might be good because they're horrible at that too.  As dominant as Chris Obekpa is on defense, he isn't a major factor on offense.

So once again we're looking at a low-scoring game.  St. John's will be much better than Norfolk State when allowed to shoot open looks, but not from too far away.  And they don't really have a playmaking point guard, so they struggle to find those open looks.

-- Outlook

I have a tough time with this one.  In a vacuum, UVA ought to be the superior team and win nine out of ten games played against St. John's.  But everything's been a struggle lately.  If UVA plays like they did against Norfolk State, they'll lose, and I feel like I owe it to you as a blogger to do more than just regurgitate the paper.  And yet....that paper does show a pretty handy UVA win.  Let's cut down the middle and go with a narrow victory.  Just cause.

Final score: UVA 57, SJU 54