Showing posts with label dolce. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dolce. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

the recruit: James Trucilla

Name: James Trucilla
Position: DT
Hometown: Erie, PA
School: Cathedral Prep
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 265

24/7: 85, three stars; #58 DT, PA #21
ESPN: 74, three stars; #85 DT, PA #32, East #165
Rivals: 5.5, three stars
Scout: two stars

Other offers: Ball State, Akron, Miami (OH), Eastern Michigan

If it's even possible, James Trucilla is a more important recruit than the OL that I've been bellyaching about, because of this: there are four scholarship DTs on the roster.  If the OL is thin, DT is even worse.  For reasons we'll get into shortly, it's not as big a disaster as it sounds, but it's still critical to collect some more.  Trucilla is the only DT recruit in the already-large recruiting class.

Trucilla also committed in the middle of a stretch that started to make UVA fans a little uneasy.  When a guy commits, nobody wants to be the one going, "really?  we're competing with the MAC for recruits now?" and coaches are always given leeway with a few of those guys in the class.  But starting in mid-to-late June, the commitment list started looking awfully bottom-heavy, and people started thinking it'd be nice to leave some room for the big fish, too.

So, we look for what the coaches were looking for, and figure out why the offers didn't roll in.  In Trucilla's case, size is the obvious answer to the latter.  There's nothing wrong with Trucilla's height; David Dean is 6'1" and starting to look like an all-conference tackle.  But 265 pounds is just big enough to get blown off the middle of the line like a leaf, and Trucilla looks as though putting on a lot of weight could be tough.  He doesn't really have room for 30 more pounds; 280-285 seems like his limit, though he may not be asked to go that high.

But there's always a tradeoff, and Trucilla's appeal is in his quickness.  Watching his highlight, that's the one trait that stands out, and ESPN agrees, deploying the word "quick" four times in his scouting report.  In this case, his relative lack of height is actually an asset, because he can start off low and get underneath and around a blocker.  He's probably doomed on the plays where a bigger guy can create any leverage on him and stay in front, but if he gets an angle he's gone.  And, you know how announcers are always talking about running backs who "keep their legs moving" as if some of them run without doing so?  Trucilla does this, at least on plays where he's successful (and they don't show the other ones, you know?)  Some DTs can put down roots and you might as well try to block an elm tree; Trucilla, though, is a three-tech, gap-penetrating DT all the way, not the space-eating kind at all.

His production is a little less than elite, even for a DT; last year and this he's been pulling down about a TFL and half a sack per game.  52 tackles in 13 games last year, not bad at all, it's just that you'd like to see a few more of them behind the line.  That's what he'll be asked to do in college, after all, not clog up a line of scrimmage.

Remember I said that DT depth isn't a supercritical thing - it's because most of the time, Tenuta has the defense in a nickel package, and in that alignment, Max Valles plays DE and a DE (usually Mike Moore) moves inside.  So UVA actually lines up with two DTs, maybe a quarter of the time.  Moore doesn't have a lot of tackles this year, but he does get into the backfield, and that's what Trucilla would be asked to do too.  Or, remember John-Kevin Dolce, who was used as an absurdly light DT when London arrived, and was comically bad against the power run game but sometimes exploded someone in the backfield.  Trucilla, if he develops to his potential, is a less-extreme version of Dolce, probably a bit less athletic a version of Moore.

Since Chris Brathwaite moved to OL and got buried, UVA doesn't graduate any DTs next year, and the coaches can probably be counted on to redshirt Trucilla.  Donte Wilkins and Andrew Brown should be able to hold down DT for a while after Dean graduates, and Trucilla will also have to contend with someone like Michael Biesemier, as an example of someone who might take over Moore's DE/DT role.  (Trucilla won't be moving to end himself; his quickness is much more useful against interior linemen, and he'd get swallowed up by long-armed, fancy-footed offensive tackles.)  Redshirt sophomore year (2017) is probably the earliest that Trucilla projects to see real playing time; what happens in 2017 and beyond depends on his ability to pick up the defense and develop moves that maximize his natural quickness.

Monday, November 12, 2012

hurricane mike

ACC expansion is generally seen as a necessary evil, something we could do without and yet must have in order to prevent even worse outcomes.  And yet it's not without its perks.  We don't get to see much of Clemson or NC State any more, but 12 games a year have to be played against somebody.  The somebody that has replaced traditional yet unremarkable (in the sense that nothing especially historic has ever happened against them, unless you had some kind of nostalgia for a decades-long losing streak to Clemson) opponents is Miami.  It's a funny pairing.  I don't remember particular details of most of the BCS championship games that've occurred since its inception, but I do remember quite a bit of the one Miami played in, against Ohio State, including where I was at the time (home from school for the holidays, at a friend's house playing poker) and never in my wildest dreams did it occur to me that the powerhouse Hurricanes would, in less than a decade, figure more strongly than almost any other team in UVA lore of the 21st century.  "UVA owns Miami" would've exploded my mind at the time.  They were on another plane back then.

That's a slightly misguided meme, actually, as we're only 5-4 against them since ACC expansion.  They won the first two matchups (three if you count the mid-90s bowl game) and not that long ago, demolished the Hoos so badly (52-17) that the ripple effects from the game went backward two days in time and caused me to write this, likely the most accurate game preview I've ever penned.

But slightly misguided is still only slightly.  UVA horned in on 70 years of Miami history by making their last game in their venerable old stadium a memorable one, if not exactly in the way the in-attendance Hurricane dignitaries hoped.  And the Hoos now carry a three-year winning streak against Miami, utterly unthinkable in the glamour days of The U.  The way in which the latest entry finished up eroded most of whatever personal resistance I had left to the "we own them" meme.

It's hard not to think that way when Miami is responsible for some of the best memories of the London era, to say nothing of one of the top three games of the Groh era.  A UVA team that would eventually finish 1-7 in conference play dominated a top-25 Miami squad thanks in part to the best hit of John-Kevin Dolce's career.  Mike Rocco hit Perry Jones between the numbers on a simple slant and the Miami defense forgot to be anywhere near the ball, leading to technically the longest touchdown throw of Rocco's career.  And then......that.

"That" is what happened on Saturday.  Rocco hit Darius Jennings and Jake McGee for near-identical touchdowns, making Miami the fourth victim of Rocco's heartbreaking ways.  They fall in line behind Indiana, Penn State, and Florida State.  Resilience is in this man's character, winning his countenance and mien.  There's a reason I don't fall all over myself for scout-wowing spirals.  The best thing in a quarterback is what Rocco has: the inability to enter a game behind on the scoreboard and conceive of the possibility of losing.

I told you on Thursday I wasn't ready to believe in fairy tales, and then the fairy tale fairy, who does not like my attitude, gave us a football game right from the Brothers Grimm.  Now there's only two ways we can go from here: all the way up or all the way down.  Which you think will happen depends on how long you've been a UVA fan and whether you've learned any lessons in that time.

Further items in brief.....

-- I guess we might as well get used to the quarterback platoon.  I'm a pretty firm believer in not screwing with what's working (which is a big part of the reason I was all pro-Rocco to begin with.)  The coaches did the right thing, however, in breaking the rotation at the end and sticking with the hot hand; Rocco's final drive marked the first time all game that either quarterback had had three series in a row, not counting the clock-killing handoff to finish off the first half.

-- Maybe it's because I'm an ACC fan that I didn't find the NFL's replacement refs to be so bad.  These guys constantly find new and amusing ways to make court jesters of themselves, the latest being a personal foul on "unknown player."  The safety was also a hideously bad call, and this particular crew must have a copy of the rulebook that omits any mention of facemask penalties.

-- Special teams continue to suck.

-- Dominique Terrell had a game and a half, did he not?  This is the first game we've seen our wide receiver recruiting efforts really pay off in the form of a terrifying passing assault.  Terrell, Darius Jennings, and Tim Smith all had huge catches and excellent games overall, supplemented nicely by McGee and E.J. Scott.  There's a reason we were really excited to reel those guys in, and that was it.

-- Second best tweet of the day: Michael Phillips' suggestion that a coaching rotation be implemented in which Groh coaches October and London gets November.  Undefeated season recipe right there.  Londonvember is really gonna be a thing if we somehow manage to go bowling, and don't tell me you didn't miss Grohtober just a little bit during the Maryland and Wake games.  Best tweet of the day: CavsCorner's Brad Franklin with "Seriously, Mike London is trolling Randy Edsall SOOOOOOO hard with these QBs." 

-- Steve Greer is gonna be missed more than any other graduating senior next year.

-- Of all the possible outcomes this season could have generated, the following is the least likely when viewed from back in August: UVA and Virginia Tech have identical 4-6, 2-4 records in November.  VT and Georgia Tech were considered the mainest challengers for the Coastal Division, and played to a 20-17 overtime battle in the first game of the season for each.  Who'd've guessed that the close score meant they both suck, not that they're both awesome?

Prediction review....

-- UVA extends Miami's streak of allowing 200 rushing yards one more game.  Somehow, we didn't manage this.  Good Lord, we didn't even make it to 100 and still scored 41 points.

-- Mike Rocco runs for at least 25 yards.  No, and in fact, he was sacked a couple times which took a big chunk out of the 17-yard gain he had early on.

-- For the second game in a row, Phillip Sims is the more effective passer.  Not even remotely.

-- Duke Johnson breaks off at least one big run or YAC reception.  Yes, thanks in part to one of the feeblest attempts at a tackle I've ever seen, even including punters.  Demetrious Nicholson could not have looked sillier on Johnson's first-quarter scamper.  Also, kick return DAMMIT.

That makes me 20-for-48, as well as 0-7-3 against the spread since the margin of victory was exactly the line.  This was one crappy game for Vegas.  They originally set the spread at Miami -3 and so much money flooded in on UVA that they swung the spread four points to UVA -1.  So they obviously lost a ton of money on those bets and then had to refund all the ones that came on once the spread settled at -1.  I'm also 4-6 straight up and probably never going to pick UVA to win again this season.  Briar patch and all that.

Programming note: this is a shortened week thanks to the game on Thursday.  Game preview runs on Wednesday with nothing scheduled for Thursday.  Game reactions on Friday, which is normally a vacation day.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

the recruit: Rob Burns

Name: Rob Burns
Position: DE
Hometown: Ashburn
School: Stone Bridge
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 230

ESPN: 77; three stars; #79 DE
Rivals: 5.6; three stars; VA #15
Scout: three stars; #56 DE

Other offers: Penn State, Stanford, Boston College, Michigan State, Maryland, Syracuse, Rutgers, Duke, Wake Forest

Rob Burns was one of the first guys Mike London offered upon being named head coach, and his name was at the top of the board for most UVA fans. UVA was his first offer (and remained so for a few months), his classroom work is strong, and he hails from one of the state's top teams. Priority recruit. So it might have worried people who read the CavsCorner article about Thompson Brown when Brown referred to London telling him something about "closing out the defensive line class."

Burns was obviously a touch worried too, because he scooted his decision timeframe up and was committed to UVA within a few days of Brown, making sure to get in ahead of a visit day that he wasn't going to attend.

One of the few UVA commits still in the hunt for a state title, Burns anchors one of the state's top defenses. Stone Bridge held regular season opponents to 56 points all season (and often scored about that many in one game), shut out four teams, and held one hapless opponent to 13 yards of total offense all game long. He plays tight end, too (and lacrosse); a natural fit for a guy who's as tall as a power forward and described by his coach as fast. But he's defense all the way in college.

And he'll almost certainly stick at end, too. Despite his height - 6'7, 6'8 is tall for a lineman; you need leverage, after all - ESPN and his coach both credit him with good ability to get down and keep his pad level low. That said, he's probably too tall and definitely too thin for a move to tackle unless he adds another 50 pounds, minimum. (This is the same coaching staff that thinks 240-pound John-Kevin Dolce should be used as a run-stopping tackle, but still.) Five defensive ends are listed on the incoming section of the depth chart, but Burns is one of the most likely to stick there.

All four of UVA's two-deep defensive ends return in 2011, plus DE number five, Billy Schautz. (I expect Jeremiah Mathis to return to the defense next year.) Even if the somewhat underwhelming Zane Parr loses his starting job, Jake Snyder is a third-year sophomore next year, and field-ready. Chances are not good for a true freshman DE to see the field. After that, though, it's open season on the two-deep, with Parr and Cam Johnson graduating next year. Just by virtue of being so damn tall (and plenty athletic), Burns is one of the freakier physical specimens in the incoming class. With his speed, height, and reasonably impressive array of college offers, he should be a quality pass-rusher as well as able to close off the edge to outside running plays. Barring any five-star superfreaks in the upcoming recruiting classes, there's no reason to believe Burns shouldn't develop into at least a two-year starter on the D-line.

Sunday, October 31, 2010

signature

Pretend, for a minute, that it's not the case that Miami didn't bring their A game to Charlottesville on Saturday. (What we saw could charitably be called their D game. If the prof is in a forgiving mood.) Forget for a sec that Jacory Harris got knocked out of the game. Ignore for a bit the lingering issues that tried to poke their head around the curtain and spoil the show, and will try to do so again in future games.

Rebuilding programs need to put something on display that looks like rebuilding. Otherwise you're just chucking bricks on a pile and hoping they become a house. The USC game was nice, but it was still a loss and it was way after midnight and not really on TV and it was a loss. Take the opposite of every "but" in that last sentence and you get the Miami game. Here is the full list of people that will care, even in the not-distant future, about Miami's horrible coverage breakdown on the Phillips touchdown or the gift-wrapped short field UVA was given on the final Payne one:

1)

That goes for Mike London's recruiting targets in May 2011, the history books, and anyone else interested in the words "Virginia 24, Miami 19."

Also, bowl games (ohhhhh no it's the forbidden word) don't care much about either degree of difficulty or level of effort put in by the opponent. They're looking for one thing, and it's a yes-or-no answer. I told you that getting to a bowl would now officially require an upset win over Miami or VT plus three straight over Duke, Maryland, and BC; part one is achieved. Part two is to put together a long winning streak. And because forgetting about all that stuff above doesn't make it go away, that'll be the last time I mention bowl games until and unless both Duke and Maryland fall victim to the mighty Virginia onslaught. In that case I'll probably talk about it incessantly for a week.

The short term big picture (what? yes.) however, is where the impact of the win hits hardest. It was plainly obvious what kind of an emotional investment Mike London - and by extension, his players - had in this game, and oh, what confidence must there be now in the locker room? In two weeks, to go from being humiliated and piling on the humiliation by getting chewed out at the 50-yard line, to being exalted and piling on the adulation at the 50-yard line. I wish we could play Duke tomorrow.

Stuff that didn't fit....

- UVA fans are such a fickle lot, no? Before the season there was nothing but adoration for Jim Reid. He's been successful in the state of Virginia, by God, and he's a tough old football dude that garners equal parts love and respect. Now there are already mucho calls for his firing. Piling on the love before the defense even plays a snap and then calling for his head because the defense didn't, apparently, play well enough in the biggest win of the last couple seasons; the logic is thoroughly baffling. To quote Mike Scott: smh. It goes to show one thing: if you are from the state of Virginia or have connections there, UVA fans will probably overrate you.

- And no, I can't say I'm happy with the defense up to this point of the season either, but what was wrong with yesterday? Let me make a few points for you:

1) In the first three quarters, Miami gathered just 253 yards.
2) During that time, they ended drives on a punt or on downs more often than on a turnover. I make this point to counter the notion that we got lucky with all those picks.
3) It wasn't luck that knocked Harris out of the game. It was John-Kevin Dolce making a play, and a hell of one at that, to beat his blocker and make a perfect tackle.
4) It wasn't luck that Chase Minnifield intercepted two passes, it was being in the right place at the right time and making athletic plays.

- P.S. this is why Dolce needs to be a pass-rush specialist.

- Anyone else catch Lou Holtz's wicked backhanded compliment? "Virginia played great physical football. They didn't play like Virginia." Say wha?

- Anyone else think you couldn't have better timing for an interception than the play directly following a montage of your interceptions?

- I am a prophet, by the way. What were my keys to the game? Intercept passes and favor the run on offense. Some numbers: 5 interceptions; 46 runs against 27 passes, or nearly twice as many runs as throws. I did forget "brass balls of steel on fourth down." That would've been a good one to throw in. The message London sent on 4th-and-3 by going for it was priceless; the fact that the Miami secondary forgot to cover the tight end helped it sink in.

- Attention Virginia fans who wanted to scrap Marc Verica and name a freshman the starting quarterback: Thank God that Mike London doesn't listen to you because we would not be talking about a win.

Seriously: Verica played a beautiful game. The coaches deserve a lot of credit for that with an intelligent game plan designed to minimize Verica's opportunities to screw up. (And an interception on 3rd-and-long only helped to drive this point home; that one and the one about please just run the ball and punt rather than have Verica try and make a high-risk play.) But Verica had a terrific game. He found his receivers in the clutch and put perfect passes on target when he had to. What else can you ask?

- I have a different DVR setup right now than I used to; one which doesn't allow downloading things straight from the DVR to the computer. (What is the matter with you, AT&T? Why can't I put what I record onto my computer like I can with TiVo? Why do you hate freedom?) This is why there's no YouTube awesomeness yet. I've been itching to be able to do that. But I ought to be able to find a workaround. So I promise this game will have highlights available at some point.

- Edit: now with new last bullet! Sandmeistr reminded me of the bullet I meant to have and forgot. The pitchout at the end of the game, and the fumble on the play, is the source of much heartache among fans, given the ugly possibility of a turnover and a golden chance for Miami to snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat. I don't have a problem with it.

Remember, Miami was out of timeouts; if we could have gone to the victory formation and knelt, we would have. But there was too much time, and a play that didn't burn about four or five seconds would have required a punt. So the coaches had to try and burn that extra time, and failing that, at least wanted a little yardage. What are the odds of a fumble on that play? About what the odds might be of a blocked punt, or a punt return TD, or a Hail Mary pass? Plenty of other doomsday scenarios, and the blocked punt would be a major concern; if I were Miami, I'd have sent the house without worrying about a roughing-the-kicker penalty. If Lazor just runs it up the gut like they did before, Miami's ready for it and the play doesn't kill the time it should.

Yes, we got bailed out by the offsides penalty, but Jones probably fumbled in part because they were offside.

Monday, October 4, 2010

weekend review

Monday again. That means it's time to update the recruiting board, yep. Lot of shuffling....

- Moved CB Demetrious Nicholson and LB Sean Duggan from yellow to blue. In Nicholson's case it's because UNC, which looked so strong in this recruitment earlier, is starting to look like a really lousy place for a football player to spend the next four or five years of his life. In Duggan's case it's because Wisconsin dropped off the list. BC and Michigan are still gonna be tough to contend with, though.

- Moved LB Travis Hughes from red to yellow. I still don't think he'll end up here, but he seems serious. If he does, it'll be the greatest recruiting resurrection ever pulled at UVA.

- Moved QB Lafonte Thourogood from yellow to red. Starting to get the "it ain't happening" feeling.

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Newsy things:

- UNC's Kendric Burney is officially out for the UVA game, having lost his appeal. At the rate things are going, it doesn't look likely that most of the rest of their parked players will be on the field, either, though Deunta Williams is back this week. That's a very winnable game.

- The UNC game will be at 6 PM, online, no TV. Speaking as someone who's still working on ways to get recordings of online games: argh.

- Michael Phillips suggests that JKD is still listed as the DT starter mainly because he's a senior captain, and says that Matt Conrath is getting the first snaps. But, JKD was out there a lot on first downs against FSU. Unless Conrath was banged up - wouldn't have been evident either way from the ESPN3 broadcast - JKD is still getting the meaningful snaps.

- The lead guy at CavsCorner, Chris Wallace, mentioned that some numbnuts at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution asked this question of Mike London: "What changes have you made since taking over as head coach?" (I would have told him the only thing I did was paint the equipment shed, just to see what he prints.) This must be the guy:

Both Virginia and Groh have moved on. London, the first African-American coach in the history of Virginia athletics, has brought excitement to a program needing a boost.
Mr. Huff? Dave Leitao for you on line 1. It's no wonder the newspaper industry is slowly disappearing and practically every major newspaper in the country is, like the AJC, a hyphenated combination of two papers that would have failed on their own. I realize he's only one coach off, but this is a basic, fundamental statement of a plain fact that is plain wrong, and this man is somehow paid actual legal tender to do less research for his job than I do for my hobby, which is this blog that mucks around with an audience that is occasionally measured as low as the mere dozens. As opposed to the (theoretically) millions that get their information from his paper.

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High school senior seasons march on:

STAB 13, St. Christopher's 7: Thompson Brown's been having a really good season, but kept off the stat sheet here.

L.C. Bird 21, Monacan 13: Anthony Harris throws the go-ahead touchdown.

Hermitage 19, Deep Run 0: Diamonte Bailey assists in another Hermitage shutout.

Thomas Dale 12, Petersburg 8: Maybe a little rust as Kevin Green and Petersburg have had three straight weekends off.

>I.C. Norcom 45, Norview 0: Kameron Mack still rolling, and earning the shutout.

St. S/St. A 40, Randolph-Macon 0: Gotta like the shutouts our future defenders keep getting. This one belongs to Darius Lee.

Menchville 31, Gloucester 3: Clifton Richardson QBs his team to their first win of the season. Very nice to see. And he's homecoming king, too!

Phoebus 50, Woodside 10: #1-in-the-state Phoebus and Caleb Taylor crush a solid Woodside bunch.

Tallwood 14, Green Run 6: David Dean's team upset as Tallwood gets their first win of the year.

Cox 21, Princess Anne 17: Ross Burbank helps pave the way for a solid 200-plus yard night for Cox's running game.

Hampton 33, Warwick 0: Another easy one for David Watford.

Gonzaga 32, DeMatha 25: Upset loss for Kelby Johnson and Jordan Lomax. And UVA was recruiting that Gonzaga quarterback (Kevin Hogan) pretty heavily, too.

Damascus 35, Springbrook 14: Big win for Brandon Phelps against an undefeated team.

Stone Bridge 63, Marshall 7: Man....these teams never passed. Rob Burns in on the defensive shutdown but never got to rush the quarterback.

Good Counsel 48, Bishop McNamara 0: Vincent Croce pitches in on the shutout; prospect Blake Countess does a lot of the scoring.

Independence 51, Ardrey Kell 30: Adrian Gamble catches four passes for 125 yards.

Boys' Latin 45, St. Frances 0: Yep, another shutout. Marco Jones this time. SF is awful though.

Mt. Lebanon 35, Canon-McMillan 12: It's really hard to find your offensive linemen in the high school box scores, but at least Tim Cwalina keeps winning.

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I've decided to put the ongoing AP poll study in this section. I might give this its own page, but for this week this is what we're doing. Remember: these lag a week, so this is from last Sunday's poll. So here are this week's results. For explanation, please read here.



Trends that continue:

- If there's a team likely to be way overvoted, it's probably a big-name team. Less so this week, but man look at Texas. This is largely the result of voters either keeping them in the middle-ish of the poll after a hideous loss against UCLA, or kicking them out entirely.

- And if there's a group of writers most likely to hold a bias, it's probably West Coasters. Except....look what they did to Oregon. SEC voters ranked Oregon second, and Pac-10 voters had them damn near 7th. Very weird. Probably a one-time-only thing.

Regionalism continues to appear most strongly below the top 25, with conference-regional voters being the main driving force behind the appearance of teams like Northwestern, Oregon State, UCLA, and Missouri in the "also getting votes" section. Additionally, strong bias is evident from 21-25, with four of those five teams getting a huge boost from conference voters. Remember, at the bottom, higher differences in average ratings are harder to achieve, so the delta numbers for teams like NC State, Nevada, and MSU are significant.

However, overall, if you were trying to claim bias permeated this week's poll, you'd have only weak evidence to go on. Other than the almost omnipresent tendency of West Coast voters to overrate West Coast teams, everything else seems to be close to a random distribution again. Tune in next week, then.

Sunday, October 3, 2010

illusions

Reminiscing on upsets past and joyous times of yore has a way of clouding the in-between. With Florida State in town, talk was of 1995 and 2005, and that was fun. In between those two big wins, of course, I graduated junior high, high school, and college, and FSU visited Charlottesville four other times and handed our ass to us with parsley and tartar sauce. Hooray, another one for the pile.

Any illusion that the offense can be consistently functional againt a bowl-worthy defense should be shattered about now, and abandoned in the way that one day you realize you're not growing up to play baseball in the majors. In two games against defenses worth a damn, the offense has scored exactly two touchdowns when those defenses were actually trying, only one of which was the result of an actual drive. Florida State brainfarted on defense, and Marc Verica and Kris Burd smartly took advantage. After that, Verica's inner Interception Man appeared and finished what FSU started.

UVA did, by the way, almost nothing I thought they should do in the preview. Never to say that that stuff would have worked, but their way didn't, either. To wit:

- John-Kevin Dolce, all 250 pounds of him, was consistently on the field on running downs and consistently ended up 5 yards downfield before the running back was at the line of scrimmage. The man is at his best when given a step of space where he can use his athleticism, like on the pass rush - he doesn't otherwise have the beef for DT and the FSU running game took full advantage.

- Rather than punt at the sidelines, or rugby kick, or do something different than a straight up boom at the sky, UVA allowed Greg Reid to field everything he could get near. And FSU's field position benefitted beautifully from it.

- The FSU linebackers were allowed the luxury of keying on the run game, and they made every stop. There was very little play-action and tight end involvement to keep the linebackers busy and very few draw plays, too. Result: 2.9 yards per carry for the tailbacks.

Fact is, Florida State has more talent everywhere you look, at every single position on the field except for possibly cornerback, and this last is also hard to defend given the play of those backups. (More on that later.) That is probably one of the only really complete teams in the ACC.

On that note, the optimism: that is probably one of the only really complete teams in the ACC. Except for those that expected to hoist the crystal in January, there isn't a 2-2 team anywhere that thinks their season is over. Two more losses like that might change my perspective a little, but take a look at what Georgia Tech and UNC have accomplished this season and see if you don't think they're beatable. Watch that Duke-Maryland game again and see if you don't really like what you see. There's still plenty to look forward to this season, which is all you can ask for, really.

Stuff that didn't fit:

- My God, Devin Wallace had a really bad day. At least three, if not all four, of FSU's touchdowns can be more or less directly attributed to something he didn't do very well, be it tackle or cover. Wallace and Dom Joseph have been fairly solid in their careers, but neither of them would ever want to repeat their Saturday performances.

- It absolutely is not time to replace Marc Verica. I've always said his performance on the season shouldn't be judged until halfway through, and I'm sticking with that even if he throws five picks against GT. One, there are still bowl hopes, and not gumdrop rainbow ones either. Two, Metheny looked pretty good but FSU had their second string out and was hardly trying. And three, the people ready to throw Verica under the bus will probably be the same people ready to do the same to Metheny or Rocco in 2012 and '13. There's a certain breed of fan that just is never satisfied with what they're getting. They're rooting for the laundry, frankly. I happen to think that rooting for the team also means rooting for the players, and it's hard not to root for a guy who worked hard, gained the starting job, lost it, worked some more, got it back, and is looked to for leadership by the whole team.

I said it long before the season, repeatedly, and I'll say it again: that's a discussion we should have after the FSU-GT-UNC stretch, and only if we really look well out of bowl contention and Verica has been totally ineffective. If UVA wins just one of the next two, they'll be 3-3 going on 4-3. That'd be no time for a change at the helm.

- On the other hand, there are some depth chart changes that I'd either really like to see or wouldn't be surprised to. Like I said earlier, JKD should revert to his pass-rush role; he's getting blown up against the run. GT will exploit that mercilessly. And the O-line is hopefully still an evaluation in progress. I'd also like to replace the blank spots on the depth chart behind the two-deep at defensive back with actual scholarship players, but we can't have everything.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

game preview: Florida State

Date/Time: Saturday, October 2; 12:00

TV: ACC Network (formerly Raycom)/ESPN3 for those of us blacked out

History against the Seminoles: 2-13

Last matchup: FSU 33, UVA 0 - game vacated by FSU

Last week: UVA 48, VMI 7; FSU 31, WF 0

Line: Florida State by 7

Opposing blogs: Tomahawk Nation, Scalp 'Em

Injury report:

OUT

TE Jeremy Dollin
WR Bobby Smith
WR Tim Smith
WR Eric Thornton

DOUBTFUL - none

QUESTIONABLE - none

PROBABLE

OT Landon Bradley
WR Kris Burd
RB Raynard Horne
S Corey Mosley
S Brian Oden
LB LaRoy Reynolds
TE Joe Torchia

Uniform combination: blue jersey, white pants

Other useful stuff:
Q&A with Tomahawk Nation
Other half of the Q&A
FSU season preview

Things looked a lot different last time we saw this. Two old dudes roamed the sidelines in Bobby Bowden and Al Groh, and FSU was ranked in the top 5. In fact, the last time FSU came to Charlottesville not ranked in the top ten is probably never. Now Groh is gone, and so is Bowden (significantly decreasing FSU's dislikability factor), and for the first time, UVA fans aren't looking to next week's game with this one already written off as a loss.

There's also a lot of looking back, of course. "Florida State at Virginia" brings back pleasant memories of two of UVA's best upsets since the Welsh era began - heck, maybe the two best ever. It's a disappointing side effect of the expanded ACC that the opportunity to really relive 1995 and 2005 will now come up just once every five years, but that's the way it is. In 1995 I hadn't yet added orange to my maize-and-blue loyalties, but I do have pretty strong and exciting memories of an autumn evening in 2005 - which you would admit is impressive if you'd seen the roughly gallon-and-a-half of beer I'd imbibed through the afternoon. The date has special significance for UVA fans and Michigan fans alike, so combined with the Boston bar-hopping it's been the football Saturday by which all other football Saturdays are judged in my book. Can similar memories be made on Saturday?

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Christian Ponder isn't much of a deep thrower. His triceps are probably better than they were, but they're still not 100% and I still don't expect a lot of big bomb-type throws. Roughly 10 yards per completion against Wake - that's a fairly low number. Combine Ponder's wonky triceps with the likely absence of LT Andrew Datko, and FSU's likeliest course of action in the passing game is quick slants and dinking and dunking their way down the field. That means plenty of throws to possession receiver extraordinaire Bert Reed, Ponder's favorite target. Reed will probably match up with Chase Minnifield, but what I'd really like to see is Minnifield on Taiwan Easterling and the comparatively monstrous Ras-I Dowling on Reed. (Reed is teensy.) If Dowling has regained his quicks, he can use his size to limit Reed. I think Minnifield can hang with Easterling. Additionally, we'll need outstanding side-to-side play from our linebackers.

- Because of the short passing game, I don't expect the pass rush to be a huge factor unless the cornerbacks are really doing a good job on the FSU receivers. So more run-stopping beef on the D-line - that is, more playing time for Matt Conrath and Nick Jenkins over John-Kevin Dolce, except in obvious passing downs - should be of greater help against the very efficient FSU running game.

- Is there a weakness in the FSU defense? The only team yet to find one is Oklahoma, which doesn't have a monster running game but did shred FSU through the air. Nobody's really run successfully on FSU this year, and my thought is UVA will need heavy doses of the pass to keep the run defense honest. Getting the tight ends open will be key. FSU has very, very good linebackers, but they can't step up for run defense if they're in pass coverage against our tight ends. A successful offensive attack might start with a few strikes to TE's Torchia and Phillips, and draw plays when Lazor wants to run the ball.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- The worst thing that can happen is for FSU to be able to establish their running game. Not unlike Payne and Jones, FSU has a quality tandem of big-and-small running backs. Level of competition obviously has to be taken into account when considering the impressive run-game results, but the only team to date to stop FSU has been Oklahoma, and, you know, we're not Oklahoma.

- Under no circumstances whatsoever should Greg Reid be allowed to field a punt.

- Remember how, before the season, every preview of the offense written anywhere began with "if the offensive line...."? This is why. USC aside (and UVA wasn't especially effective on offense there), this is really the kind of game that that phrase was meant for. FSU will just bulldoze the offense if they're allowed to and it'll be the kind of long, frustrating afternoon that ends up with a score of 34-6 if the O-line doesn't give the skill players room to work. Their defense is more than good enough to just shut us right down.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

Really, it'll hinge on the two O-lines. And Ponder. UVA's is healthy but still of questionable ability - we don't really know yet if they're a good, ACC-caliber unit or not. FSU's is not healthy and in a little bit of flux: Datko, their top tackle, is out, and Zebrie Sanders may or may not move to left tackle for the game.

Ponder, meanwhile, is a bigger mystery than Verica. FSU pushed him as a major-league Heisman candidate, but that was borderline silly. Ponder isn't a Heisman-caliber quarterback. But he does have the ability to drive the offense down the field and hurt you. He also has the capacity to miss receivers he should hit. Verica's a wild-card in a different fashion - you know the giant brainfart is coming, you just don't know when and you hope it doesn't hurt you too bad. But otherwise Verica is Verica and you know what you're getting. Sometimes with Ponder, the whole game is a lost cause, though that sort of thing is getting less frequent as he gets older.

Really, FSU should win this game. There's still a talent gap. But even though both teams are under new management, there's a difference in the change. As FSU fans will point out, the team is being coached again. Bobby Bowden, the thinking goes, didn't do much of that. Fisher's introducing plays and schemes and stuff, and the thought process no longer stops at the assumption that being Florida State is enough to make them bigger better faster and that's all it takes. Contrast that to the change here at UVA, where the problem was not undercoaching, but overscheming. The schemes of Mike London, Bill Lazor, and Jim Reid are still schemes and they're still coaching, but they demand much less thought, much less "if A then B" going on inside a player's head while the play goes on around him. Makes playing easier. For this reason, you will see UVA overachieve relative to expectations, while FSU has ups and downs, good games and bad, and may or may not play up to their talent level while they get used to being coached again.

And don't forget the overlook aspect: FSU has Miami next week. We're just little ol' Virginia. You always beat us. No need to get too excited.

So I'd be surprised to see a blowout. UVA may still lose - in fact, I think the chances of that are better than even. But since we've been reminiscing about FSU's past trips to Charlottesville, let's talk about 2003. The Hoos lost, 19-14, playing a very solid game (particularly on defense) but were done in by one really glaring, ugly weakness and a couple ill-timed mistakes. In that team's case, the weakness was punting and the worst mistake was a poor snap that ruined a crucial third down. This seems like the kind of game we're in for. Fortunately, nothing on this team is as bad as the punting was in that game, although there's no Matt Schaub or Ahmad Brooks, either. But - eliminate the mistake(s), and what happens instead? A Virginia win may be the answer. It'll be close enough that we might just get to find out.

REST OF THE ACC

Miami @ Clemson, 12:00
Virginia Tech @ NC State, 3:30
North Carolina vs. East Carolina, 3:30
Duke @ Maryland, 6:00
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest, 7:00
Boston College vs. Notre Dame, 8:00

Thursday, September 2, 2010

game preview: Richmond

Date/Time: Saturday, September 4; 6:00 PM

TV: ESPN3

History against the Spiders: 25-2-2

Last matchup: UVA 16, UR 0; 9-6-2008; Highlights.

Last week: None

Line: N/A

Opposing blogs: none

Injury report: none

This week's uniform: Orange jersey, blue pants

Richmond season preview

Today's actually kind of a big day. An anniversary of sorts. Ten years ago today, the Hoos opened the season by opening the new and improved Scott Stadium against BYU. And that means ten years ago today, your humble blogger was a bright-eyed, bushy-tailed first-year at his first UVA football game. The contest was one of those soul-crushing defeats that make you cast your eyes to the heavens and go whhhyyyyyyyyy?????? But I like to think it had a purpose. I like to think I walked into Scott Stadium a UVA student pulling for the Cavaliers, and walked out a Hoo.

Really, the parallels are impossible to ignore. History does repeat itself. Ten years ago this week, a new stadium was christened. Nine years ago this week, against this very opponent, Al Groh coached his first home game at UVA; Mike London will do the same on Saturday. Two years ago this week, against this very opponent, UVA debuted throwback orange jerseys; this week, they'll be in orange for the first time since that game.

And you'll see a lot of the same faces. A young defense put up a yeoman's effort in shutting out the Spiders two years ago, and many of the same players return to play equally big roles. Chase Minnifield made a key interception in the end zone, the first of his career. Matt Conrath and John-Kevin Dolce got up close and personal with the UR quarterback. Zane Parr also chipped in a big sack. UVA opens up a new era on Saturday, but don't be surprised if you're getting deja vu all the same.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Continue to let history repeat itself. The formula that worked in 2008 should work again. The UVA defense camped out in Richmond's backfield and never left. They shut down Richmond's running game, and snuffed out drives with big sacks - six in total, and 10 TFLs. The offense was just good enough to keep the defense fresh. Frustratingly unproductive on the scoreboard, yes, but Peter Lalich was reasonably efficient (if slightly turnover-prone) and the running game kept the clock moving. This team is built very, very similarly. Richmond's offensive line is inexperienced, and UVA's D-line is stout, so I expect a lot of the same.

- Press Kevin Grayson and make his life miserable. Grayson gashed the UVA defense in 2008 to the tune of 8 catches for 111 yards. He was the only real threat to the shutout all day. Grayson comes in banged up with a sprained knee but will play, although the injury is serious enough that there was speculation he wouldn't. Room to run has a way of making bad knees feel better; put the large, physical Ras-I Dowling on him and hit him at the line, every play, and he should be neutralized.

- Avoid turnovers. This is the sort of things that's usually obvious; I mention it because of the seven that doomed UVA in last year's opener against W&M. Seven! It was a shocking number then and it's still ridiculous now. Richmond doesn't have a good enough offense against the UVA defense to continually march down the field, so simply punting them deep as opposed to handing them the ball at the 50 is probably enough for the win.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- Throw interceptions. Fumbles happen, but interceptions are the big worry here. Verica has that little issue about throwing them, and Richmond's corners are athletic and largely the strength of the defense. They have very solid outside linebackers, too, and all of these guys will be dangerous if the ball gets to their hands. A pick-six is a major, major concern.

- Mistakes and jitters. Both sides are playing for new coaches and using new systems. But UVA's systems are newer and the stakes are higher. By no means is this a mistake-free team. And I don't mean turnovers still - it's the little things like being in the wrong place at the wrong time, forgetting your assignment, getting overexcited and committing dumb penalties. UVA is the more talented team, and there aren't many times we'll be able to say that this year. But not by much: Richmond is still the 6th-ranked team in I-AA, and they probably match up well against your average mid-major I-A team. They'll capitalize if UVA screws up.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

History repeats. In 2001, a missed PAT was the margin of victory for UVA. In 2008, UVA clung to a 3-0 lead for three quarters before breaking open a little cushion midway through the fourth. In neither instance did either team break 20 points, and I think that'll be the case again. UVA is the better team and should win, and the UVA D-line against an inexperienced Richmond O-line will be the big difference. Again, UVA linemen will spend a lot of time in Richmond's backfield, making life miserable for the Spiders. But again, the offense has shown no reason to believe it'll be productive. I'm cautiously optimistic: another close win, with another 16 or 17 points, appears in the offing. But too close for comfort.

REST OF THE ACC

Thursday:
Wake Forest vs. Presbyterian, 6:30
Miami vs. Florida A&M, 7:30

Saturday:
Florida State vs. Samford, 12:00
Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina State, 1:00
Boston College vs. Weber State, 1:00
Clemson vs. North Texas, 3:30
NC State vs. Western Carolina, 6:00
Duke vs. Elon, 7:00
North Carolina vs. LSU, 8:00

Monday:
Maryland vs. Navy, 4:00
Virginia Tech vs. Boise State, 8:00

Monday, August 30, 2010

weekend review: game face

It was 91 degrees outside in my neck of the woods this weekend and not remotely football weather, but that doesn't stop it from being a game week. And that means it's time to get the blog's game face on. So first: recruiting board. Monday thing during the season. Couple of additions this week as Mike London stretches his recruiting arm to Georgia:

- Added LB Troy Gray to blue.

- Added TE Max Mason and WR Demetri Knowles to yellow.

No, still not much going on in the recruiting world. Wait til this weekend when official visits can start.

****************************************

I don't know how often we'll see the depth chart updated on the official site, but they did so this week, which is kind of exciting. So there's a depth chart update here too. Among the highlights:

- I was a dum-dum and forgot to take the decommitted Matt Bailey off last time. So that's done.

- My hunch was correct: Ross Metheny and Mike Rocco are the backup QBs, but in no real order as yet. Odd man out in the rotation is Michael Strauss.

- The top two RBs are Perry Jones and Raynard Horne.

- Tim Smith is listed as a backup WR, with Dontrelle Inman a starter. These last two positions are probably going to be almighty interchangeable though.

- Jake Snyder breaks through as a backup DE.

- John-Kevin Dolce is officially the starter at DT over Matt Conrath, which is, ah, surprising. Dolce is hopefully as strong as advertised, because he's also going to be giving up 50+ pounds to his opponents. DT is always a platoony kind of position anyway - even Groh rotated people pretty frequently here - so it's not like Conrath is suddenly going to go ghost on us.

- Lot of "ORs" at linebacker, as in "Steve Greer OR Aaron Taliaferro", but I still think Greer, if he doesn't start off taking a majority of the snaps, will be doing so eventually. Some are surprised to see Laroy Reynolds sharing the starting job with anyone, but what do you expect from a converted safety who spent most of last year on special teams?

****************************************

And college football season means it's also high school football season. It's early yet and not every team started their season this past weekend, but some have. So here's how our recruits have been doing:

- Bayside 21, Green Run 10 in Virginia Beach. David Dean's team lost to Demetrious Nicholson's Bayside, but it was a sluggish affair for the much higher-ranked Bayside. Nicholson, who hasn't committed anywhere but will probably take an official to UVA, played both sides of the ball and caught four passes for 76 yards.

- Cox 30, Kellam 17 in Virginia Beach. Opening season win for Ross Burbank.

- I.C. Norcom 26, Northeastern (NC) 6 in Portsmouth. Kameron Mack's team gets a win over a not-great out-of-state team.

- Petersburg 43, Halifax County 20. Kevin Green will likely be a linebacker or a tight end or something at UVA, but he's Petersburg's quarterback.

- Good Counsel 21, St. Xavier (OH) 6. Big time matchup of two of the nation's power programs. Vincent Croce was in on at least one turnover. The game wasn't as close as it looked; Good Counsel broke it open in the fourth after trailing 6-0 most of the game. Potential recruit Sean Duggan, who has UVA in a smallish list of leaders, is a St. X linebacker.

- Glen Oak 42, H.D. Woodson 2. Darius Redman's team gets squashed.

- Mallard Creek 26, Independence 6. This actually happened two weeks ago. Two of North Carolina's best; Adrian Gamble's team comes out on the wrong end. South Pointe is next week for Independence, home of maybe the top recruit in the country in Jadeveon Clowney.

****************************************

Lastly, it's not only football season, it's football season! European football, that is. The Virginia Classic is next weekend with games against UAB and St. John's - both are eminently beatable. Virginia Tech is also in town, but UVA's game with them will wait til the ACC season. They're not good either. Picked 9th of 9 in the ACC preseason coaches' poll.

Speaking of which, weird. UVA is #2 in the preseason national poll, but picked 3rd in the ACC by the coaches. You'd have to figure the coaches know a little better, and are asking questions like where's the offense going to come from without guys like Tony Tchani, who went pro after his sophomore season? But most of the main operators of last season's record-setting defense are back, so let's watch and see if goalie extraordinaire Diego Restrepo can duplicate his incredible two-month shutout streak of last year.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

the recruit: David Dean

Name: David Dean
Position: DT
Hometown: Virginia Beach
School: Green Run
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 285

ESPN: 79; four stars; #19 DT
Rivals: 5.7; three stars; #27 DT; VA #9
Scout: three stars; #63 DT

Offers: West Virginia, Boston College, Stanford, Louisville, Duke, Marshall

Ah, football recruiting, ever a source of entertainment. David Dean committed to Mike London - the first recruit to really do so, as Clifton Richardson is still only sort-of committed (but also apparently having no great desire to get up and visit many other schools) - back in March. This was reported just about everywhere, and Dean made no secret of it. That didn't stop Scout from announcing (in May) that "Dean Comes Clean - David Dean says he's been committed to Virginia since early March." Maybe he was mad at Scout for ranking him so low on the DT food chain.

They're the only ones, anyway. Other than from Scout, Dean comes with the rankings and pedigree of a real bedrock defensive tackle. ESPN has him in the top 20 in the nation at his position and Rivals says he's one of the top 10 players in the state. Dean's very well known in the 757; second-team all-district as a sophomore and first-team district and second-team all-regional as a junior. The all-region honor is Dean's versatility at work, as it's for offense, not defense. (That's not all - he's an all-region hitter on the diamond, too. Got that hand-eye coordination working for him.) Quality academics, with offers from Duke and Stanford to back that up as well. In short, the kind of recruit that is right in the middle of UVA's wheelhouse.

So I'm pretty excited about Dean. A little weak on offers, but the fact that a few of them came in even after Dean's commitment is a plus, and Scout's lukewarmness notwithstanding, the gurus are all pretty high on the guy. ESPN is concerned about his size, and who cares really because six of the eighteen guys ranked ahead of him are also 6'1". Nothing wrong with 6'1" - besides, too much height isn't a good thing in defensive tackles. I'm willing to ignore their worries about his size. He's definitely proven himself against VA competition.

And DT is a good place to be in UVA's recruiting class. This is a position, remember, where our needs doubled with the arrival of the new staff. Not only needs, but requirements too: the demands of playing nose tackle in the 3-4 are way different from DT in the 4-3. The roster contains exactly one true defensive tackle: Nick Jenkins. The rest (and there aren't many) are converted ends (Conrath, Hill, Urban) or linebackers (Dolce.) Dolce is the only conversion with college experience, either in practice or games, on the interior, and he departs after this year, leaving behind a really thin DT corps. Moreover, we really have absolutely no idea how the converted players will take to the new positional demands - even Jenkins. Dean and fellow incoming DT Vincent Croce are coming into a situation where there's a chance to help out immediately. Good thing Dean was one of the best DT's we could have gotten.

Thursday, September 3, 2009

season preview: the defense

Part one, the offense, is here: link clicky. You can click on that or you can just, you know, scroll down, it was only one post ago.

Defense has nearly always been our stronger suit, and that's to be expected because Al Groh is a defensive coach at heart. So it's weird to be more confident in the offense than the defense going into a season, but that's exactly what I got going on here. As with the offense, I'm not going to do a position-by-position breakdown because you can find those at my Examiner writings. As with the offense, it's question-and-answer time.

1. The depth is kinda iffy, isn't it?

Yes, yes it is. Iffy does not begin to describe it. Only in the secondary can we rotate players in and out that have plenty of game experience. And then it's still only a three-man rotation at each position. Brandon Woods and Chase Minnifield can rotate in behind the starters at safety and corner, respectively, without much if any drop in production. The fourth at each position is a major dropoff, especially at safety where Trey Womack has been a special-teams guy his whole career.

In the front seven though.....eyyyoucchh. Defensive end is a freshman party. Our backup nose tackle is 245 pounds. The backup inside linebackers combined for a grand total of two plays last year, because one of them wasn't even eligible.

The starters are all solid. Especially on the line. But injuries anywhere up front would be just deadly. Don't even want to think about it. Here in the preseason we all like to think this or that player is some kind of stud because the coaches might say some nice things, but the reality of this is that the backup front seven is, as a whole, woefully inexperienced, and it'll show all too clearly if injuries strike the starters.

2. No Clint Sintim, no Chris Long. Will there be a pass rush this season?

Sure, with of course the already standard caveat that health is a must. One thing that was nice to see last year was Matt Conrath and Cam Johnson getting plenty of time on the field, because they're it now. They're the guys. It'll be interesting to see if this experiment of putting John-Kevin Dolce out there at nose tackle in pass rush situations works, because if it does, look out. Conrath and Johnson have Holy Terror potential on the outside and if Dolce flushes a hapless pocket quarterback out of his pocket, these guys can clean that up no sweat. All three of those guys are physical and athletic.

3. OK, so three of four starting linebackers are new to the gig. That's bad. But four of four starters in the secondary are awesome. That's good. Which outweighs the other? Should we be worrying about the linebackers more than we brag about the secondary, or vice versa?

That depends entirely on the opponent. Take Georgia Tech. Last year they just shredded us on their first two drives. It was awful. Tech had nine possessions in the game and they got 45% of their yards on those first two drives, both of which resulted in touchdowns. Then our defense adjusted and suddenly our linebackers were there to make all the plays. That's what happens when three of them are seniors. Can a much less experienced unit make the same adjustments? I really worry about the GT game for that reason. North Carolina is another team with a powerful rushing attack that might cause problems.

On the other hand, certain opponents play right into our hands. Maryland has a good but not great running game and a quarterback that's neither great nor good. Bad quarterbacks play right into our hands. We can make Maryland completely one-dimensional. If we can open up a lead on them it'll be that much harder for them to come back.

The linebackers are not bad, but as a whole they're not much more than capable, either. But a really good set of safeties can help cover up some mistakes. And I think I like it better this way than the reverse - if we had stud linebackers but inexperienced and slightly undertalented defensive backs. A good secondary can take away the passing game in a way that linebackers cannot, and help support the linebackers in the run game too. And it's not like the linebackers are bad. Denzel Burrell has a year of starting experience and the coaches (and me, on occasion) rave about Steve Greer. We're going to cringe at times about our linebackers, but on balance, we're in good shape.

4. Predictions?

Yeah, OK.

- The run defense was pretty good last year, giving up 3.7 yards a carry. That was 40th in the country. It will not be as good this year. Our linebackers are neither supremely talented nor experienced. They are, as I said, at best capable. If I had to pick one coach in the country to coach up a set of inexperienced linebackers, I'd want Al Groh. But the coaches can't make the plays or the reads for the players. Inexperience is going to cause those reads to come a hair slower no matter what, and good running teams will generally be able to take advantage.

Plus, things are going to happen like, teams running draw plays once they figure out we have a 245-pound nose tackle in passing situations. I really hope that does not bite us in the ass.

- The pass defense was also pretty good last year. It will not get worse and most likely, it'll get better. The ACC does not have a lot of good wide receivers, and choosing between Cook's or Dowling's side of the field to throw at is a scary proposition. Or you could throw over the middle which is the territory of the player Al Groh has talked up the most this offseason; that'd be Rodney McLeod. (Actually, the ACC has a lot of good secondaries and not a lot of good quarterbacks, so we're not the only team with this happy situation. Passing yards may be hard to come by in this conference.) But after doing all those season previews, I like our secondary matched up against any in the ACC. Assuming we have a pass rush, and we will if the primary pass rushers are healthy, we'll be very stingy when the opponent's quarterback drops back in the pocket.

- Steve Greer will live up to most of the hype. He's not big and will get exploded by the occasional fullback. But by all accounts he's smart as hell, and that's a lot more important than athleticism at inside linebacker.

- Matt Conrath will pick up at least five sacks.

- Will Hill won't be the only true freshman defensive end to find his way on the field. At some point this season, we'll also hear from Brent Urban, who is a big, big man. However, the line is the only place we'll see any members of the recruiting class of '09 on the defense this year.

- Like I said yesterday: 7-5.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

the Hopkins game; also, spring practice

So a couple notes from the ongoing spring practices that necessitated some changes to the depth chart:

- Chris Cook will in fact return to corner. The depth at each position remains the same, however, as Rodney McLeod moves to safety. Which is where I kept thinking he was in the first place, so that's helpful.

- Mark Ambrose is effectively retired from football with recurring shoulder troubles, thus freeing up a football scholarship. More in a bit.

- John-Kevin Dolce is more a nose tackle than a linebacker these days. This gives us some needed depth up front. Nose tackle is really what makes the 3-4 go, and tired nose tackles don't draw double teams. This means plenty of rotation, and just three guys at that position probably wasn't going to cut it. Four is a number I like better.

Now: Ambrose. Moving him off the depth chart means you can now count up the names and come up with a total of 89 scholarships promised. 88 if Kyle Long doesn't make it in the fall. The limit, as you know, is 85. How we'll reconcile this I don't know but a hint to the answer can probably be found in the news that Ambrose's career is over. I have, of course, absolutely no knowledge of the actual severity of the injury. The coaches say he can't play any more, and absent other evidence you have to believe them.

But this is pretty similar to what happened with Alabama last year. They had too many scholarships promised out, and lo and behold three or four guys had recurring medical issues and were forced to give up football. All reserves, of course, who barely saw the field. A few recruits didn't qualify. I think it's fair to at least ask a couple questions - rhetorical, because I have no press pass, but questions anyway:

- If Ambrose were a starter, an all-ACC performer even, would his shoulder problems be severe enough to warrant giving up football?
- If we had 83 scholarships promised out instead of 90, would his shoulder problems be severe enough to warrant giving up football?

I suppose you have to assume the coaches know what they're doing. But going all-out with the '09 class and taking so many LOIs seems like playing with fire. Much was made of UNC's recruiting class which was well over the limit of 25, but what's the difference between signing over the single-class limit and signing over the overall limit? There may of course be a perfectly innocuous explanation, like, the coaches saw this shoulder issue coming a mile away and anticipated that once they put on pads, Ambrose wouldn't be able to play. Still, there are 88 or 89 healthy and presumably academically qualified players on that chart. Some of them won't be there on September 1 against W&M. I'd hate to see us have to resort to skeezy tactics to make it fit.

OK! Now that I've got you pissed off at either me or the football program, let's talk lacrosse, and specifically, the win over Hopkins that was first an awesome blowout then a complete abomination then awesome again. My observations:

- I'm pretty amateur at breaking down lacrosse. Very amateur, actually. The number of lacrosse games I've seen on TV can be counted on my hands. So when I can see the gaping holes in the JHU defense and see what's coming before it happens - which usually involved one of our attackmen sliding into the open spot untouched and slamming home a perfect pass - that's when you know shitty defense is being played. Debbie Downer that I am, I liked our offensive effort but I'm pretty sure a middle school Quiz Bowl team could have donned the pads and potted a couple goals against the criminal negligence masquerading as defense that Hopkins was playing in the first quarter. I hope none of our rivals were watching that (they were though) because the clear message regarding how to stop our offense is PLAY ZONE.

- With a name like Steele Stanwick, your life is pretty well cut out for you before you even start. Hotshot lacrosse player at a prestigious East Coast school - check (and if he doesn't live up to the potential he's displayed so far, it'll be the greatest waste of a terrific name since Majestic Mapp landed on his knee funny.) Next up is law school at Georgetown and a feverish, cutthroat race to make partner at a DC or New York firm. Either that or writing paperback courtroom/murder dramas (Firm Fatale by Steele Stanwick), but either way, bigshot lawyers in fancy suits and BMWs are going to be involved. And by the way, I'm still trying to figure out what rathole his second goal (team's sixth) wormed through before it found the back of the net. Guy's a deadeye shot, too.

- OMG win faceoffs plz k thx!!! Gaudet did a very good job at this, and frankly if he had only won half, we'd have lost. I think it was Benincasa getting utterly destroyed on that faceoff at the end of the third quarter in which a Hopkins goal ensued approximately three seconds thereafter. Gaudet's going to have to continue his faceoff excellence all season because I don't know if our defense is consistently good enough to withstand a lot of extra possessions for the opposition.

- For a team whose style is pursuing and attacking the ball on defense (I know this because the announcers mentioned it at least eight thousand times, usually in the context of pointing out us getting burned by it) we sure don't do a lot of it when the ball is loose. I need to go back and look at the recording again to find out who that was ambling down the field with the ball like right next to him screaming "PICK ME UP!" and not paying attention to it. As Hopkins fell behind, they became the more desperate team on ground balls and played like it. I want to see a better sense of urgency next time out.

- Maryland is next, on Saturday and on ESPN2. Not the UVA Football Channel. The Deuce. How cool is it that ACC lacrosse is on ESPN2? I wish I was a UVA lacrosse player so it would be legal for me to hit a Twerp with a stick on national TV.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

i wasn't gonna say it but what the hell...

...you know UNC hasn't beaten us in Charlottesville since 1981, right?

Just wanted to get that off my chest. The CDP has an excellent and not-at-all-streak-jinxing article up detailing some of the more enjoyable games the Oldest Rivalry in the South has seen since the streak began.

And we have John Madden, or at least his spirit, on our side. Only he could have written the following line that appears in the official game writeup:

The Most Offense Typically Wins

Zowie, is that so? Now I know why I don't go the official site for cutting, in-depth analysis.

Just for shits and giggles.....


I call this little piece: Ronald Curry, In Charlottesville, Not Winning A Football Game.

I said it on Sunday, didn't I? It's nitpick time. Which is nice, because it means we're winning. "Fire Everybody" tends to be the mantra when you're losing and does not qualify as a nitpick. So, having gotten perfectly satisfactory performances out of his offense and defense, Groh now harangues on the special teams. Rightfully so. The punt returning in particular I think has been iffy. Hall was much improved against ECU but made just some awful decisions in the games prior, and there was a costly running-into-the-kicker penalty against Maryland. (Not that costly, though. 31-0. But it did extend a drive.) On the other side of the punt equation, Jimmy Howell has been good about half the time. Which is fine, he's a true freshman and inconsistency is the hallmark of that year group, but it's also Groh's job to stamp out that inconsistency.

The article also has a couple short paragraphs about John-Kevin Dolce, all of which fail to mention Dolce's carrying on the tradition started by Chris Long of authoritatively creating Chris Turner-shaped impressions in the turf. This could not be accomplished without the cooperation of Mr. Turner and his so-called offensive line and we thank him for his contribution and further hope and expect that he will celebrate his senior season next year by allowing this fine tradition to continue. Monsieur Dolce (he is of Haitian descent and thus in French tradition has a double first name.....only in English) looks forward to the pleasure.