2013 hoops preview: OOC schedule

This can be notoriously difficult.  Last year I divided up the teams on our out-of-conference schedule into four categories; the one labeled "Wins if we're halfway decent" contained three teams, all of which we lost to.  Then we beat the teams under the "We're the cupcake" category.  Damned if I know anymore, man.

ESPN is astoundingly schizophrenic in determining whether our schedule is a good one or a bad one.  Eamonn Brennan gave it 7 out of 10, behind only UNC and Duke in the ACC (and tied with a few other ACC teams) and wrote, "UVa missed the tournament last season mostly thanks to (a) a bad noncon schedule and (b) a bunch of really bad noncon losses. This slate should help nullify both concerns."  Joe Lunardi thoroughly disagreed, calling UVA a team that "might already have scheduled [itself] out of the next NCAA tournament."  Andy Katz couldn't decide, so he took both sides of the debate; his lead-in paragraph in introducing UVA as #19 in the power rankings called the non-con schedule "rather vanilla," followed by a video that labeled it "pretty good."

My initial reaction was leaning more toward the Lunardi view, based on seeing more crap teams than we really should (all these 300-level RPI teams are just bad news) and admittedly a little bit of annoyance that the same marquee teams from last year are still here this year.  I get that you schedule a home-and-home with opponents that are worth a damn, but I'm a little annoyed that the Big Ten gave us the same opponent twice in a row.  Anyway, I guess maybe we'll see how this looks when actually broken down somewhat analytically.

James Madison

Colonial Athletic Association

'12-'13 record: 21-15 (11-7)
'12-'13 postseason: NCAA 16 seed; lost in 1st round
'12-'13 KenPom: .4780 (2nd CAA, 172nd national)

Preseason conf. poll: 7th of 9
ESPN projection: 7th of 9

Preseason KenPom: .4265 (7th CAA, 181st national)
Preseason Hanner: 5th CAA, 187th national
Preseason TeamRank: 7th CAA, 247th national

Chance of a win: High to very high

JMU pretty much peaked last year; that's the cold truth of it.  This is decidedly a rebuilding year.  Four seniors depart and the remaining team is one senior, one junior, and a bunch of underclassmen.  The senior is Russkie Andrey Semenov, a mismatch forward with a career three-point percentage of .403.  Junior Christian Pierce is a walk-on, leaving the minutes for the sophomores and freshmen.

Sophomore Ron Curry (not that Ron Curry) will take over point guard duties, but his shooting was abysmal last year.  Taylor Bessick is the likely big-man starter - but he's not much better of a shooter and averaged 6.4 fouls per 40.  JMU is a little thin on bona fide bigs, but they do have a biggish roster; Curry at 6'4" is the shortest listed player, and everyone but him, Bessick, and redshirt freshman Dimitrije Cabarkapa is between 6'5" and 6'8".

Given the youth on this roster, it's fair to expect they'll have a tough time against the rigors of the pack-line, especially since the only apparent shooting threat is Semenov.  JMU will probably create a surprise or two along the way in the CAA season, but likely not in the opener.

VCU

Atlantic 10 Conference

'12-'13 record: 27-9 (12-4)
'12-'13 postseason: NCAA 5 seed; lost in 2nd round
'12-'13 KenPom: .8762 (2nd A-10, 20th national)

Preseason conf. poll: 1st of 13
ESPN projection: 1st of 13

Preseason KenPom: .8765 (1st A-10, 21st national)
Preseason Hanner: 1st A-10, 22nd national)
Preseason TeamRank: 1st A-10, 20th national)

Chance of a win: Middling

Shaka Smart had VCU in the Final Four two seasons ago, and last season his "Havoc" defense, while always somewhat of a calling card, gained a lot of national prominence in causing turnovers more than one out of every four opponent trips down the floor.  Unfortunately for the Rams, Havoc was exposed almost as quickly as it was revealed, in that when you try and super-press an elite point guard like Trey Burke, he nukes you.  VCU is also vulnerable in the halfcourt; an ESPN preseason article pointed out that if you take out turnovers (i.e., in VCU's case, beat the press) they gave up 1.38 points per possession.  They're probably not that bad in the halfcourt - no doubt a lot of that number simply comes from easy buckets given up by the press.

Smart will play a very long bench, a necessity when you run as hard as the Rams do.  The biggest challenge for VCU will be ensuring that junior Briante Weber is ready to take over the point from departed senior Darius Theus; this of course has as much to with fullcourt defense as the offense.  Guards Rob Brandenburg and Treveon Graham will be leaned on for three-point scoring, although neither is elite, shooting in the mid-.300s.  Down low, the offensive star will be Juvonte Reddic, a tremendously efficient player who takes, and makes, a ton of shots, and has a nose for the glass.

This game is going to be both an early bellwether and totally useless.  It probably won't be much good in terms of evaluating future chances, because it's possible the team could be either really good or really bad at breaking the press.  (Past experience is not encouraging.)  However, a win will open up some tournament possibilities, since VCU should be able to pile up the wins in their conference.  And since they're currently considered the best program in the state, UVA has a chance to make their own case for the crown.

Davidson

Southern Conference

'12-'13 record: 26-8 (17-1)
'12-'13 postseason: NCAA 14 seed; lost in 1st round
'12-'13 KenPom: .7453 (1st SoCon, 69th national)

Preseason conf. poll: 2nd of 11
ESPN projection: 1st of 11

Preseason KenPom: .6980 (1st SoCon, 81st national)
Preseason Hanner: 1st SoCon, 82nd national
Preseason TeamRank: 1st SoCon, 90th national

Chance of a win: High

This is the sort of opponent you want the brass to be scheduling for RPI-manipulation purposes.  Davidson is probably not going to be awesome.  17-1 in the SoCon isn't likely to happen again, as they graduate a lot of seniors.  Some good players remain, though; senior forward De'Mon Brooks was actually the SoCon player of the year two years ago (coaches' selection) and senior mismatch forward Chris Czerapowicz can shoot the three and takes outstanding care of the ball, ranking extremely high in KenPom's turnover-rate rankings.

The Wildcats do run a little on the small side; they return some bigs, but they were little-used last year and the team as a whole doesn't show up very big in the weight department.  Alistair Mackay is 6'11" but only 215 pounds, for example; should he earn some minutes against UVA, it's unlikely he'd be able to move Mike Tobey around.

So why do I like scheduling these guys?  Because they're not deep enough to give UVA a tremendous run, but they have the pieces to run roughshod over the downtrodden Southern Conference.  The teams of the SoCon haven't put up much competition lately and the conference as a whole ranked 28th of 32 in KenPom's rankings last year.  Though picked 2nd by the media, it was a very narrow margin behind Elon, and no other projection has the Wildcats below 1st; TeamRankings has Elon like way the hell down there.  Davidson is exactly the team to push the RPI upwards, particularly since this game is a neutral-court matchup to be played in Charlotte.

Navy

Patriot League

'12-'13 record: 8-23 (2-12)
'12-'13 postseason: None
'12-'13 KenPom: .1457 (8th PL, 319th national)

Preseason conf. poll: 10th of 10
ESPN projection: 10th of 10

Preseason KenPom: .1756 (10th PL, 322nd national)
Preseason Hanner: 8th PL, 270th national
Preseason TeamRank: 9th PL, 268th national

Chance of a win: Practically guaranteed

The expansion of the Patriot League won't help the Middies any.  They were its worst team last year and have a very good chance to be its worst team this year.  There's no frontcourt to speak of unless freshmen Enuoma Ebinum or Edward Alade figure to see any time; sophomore forward Will Kelly was lightly used last season.  6'10" would-be junior Jared Smoot isn't listed on the roster.  And that just now was the full list of players over 6'6".

Point guard Tilman Dunbar had an incredible 41% assist rate last season; passing the ball was almost always his best move as he's a lousy shooter.  Junior forward Worth Smith was the team's only double-digit scorer.  Navy puts a lot of different players on the floor because they can (they don't have to worry about athletic scholarship limits) but with literally almost half the roster at just six feet or below (5'6" shooting guard Kevin Alter is actually one of the most efficient offensive players with an O-rating of 106 last year) UVA should have little trouble scoring in the paint at will and ought to win very comfortably.

Liberty

Big South Conference

'12-'13 record: 15-21 (6-10)
'12-'13 postseason: NCAA 16 seed; lost in play-in
'12-'13 KenPom: .2817 (6th BSC, 256th national)

Preseason conf. poll: 2nd of 6 (BSC North)
ESPN projection: 3rd of 6 (BSC North)

Preseason KenPom: .3591 (2nd BSC-N, 237th national)
Preseason Hanner: 6th Big South, 245th national
Preseason TeamRank: 4th Big South, 223rd national

Chance of a win: High

Liberty was a little bit of a hard-luck team last year, posting respectable (for the Big South) efficiency numbers but getting killed in the regular season.  It didn't matter; they rolled through the conference tourney and snagged a spot in the NCAAs anyway.  Putting them on the schedule last year would've been a real RPI drag; they almost certainly won't look so bad this year.

For one thing, the Flames likely will start five seniors and don't have to play an underclassman if they don't want to.  Point guard John Caleb Sanders is a very solid all-around point guard and shooting guard Davon Marshall was a .431 three-point shooter last year.  Forward J.R. Coronado, a big Venezuelan, is a banger down low and a fair complementary piece on offense in addition to being an excellent rebounder.  Like so many mid-majors, though, Liberty is thin in the frontcourt, not being able to bring out much besides Coronado and 6'10" center Joel Vander Pol.

Liberty also was one of the worst defensive teams in the country last year thanks in large part to being 343rd out of 347 teams in forcing turnovers.  You basically have to try to give them the ball.  This is the major weak point here and the biggest reason why UVA should again find little trouble.  But with any luck, Liberty won't be an RPI anchor either; they'll hopefully give their conference a run for their money.

Hampton

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

'12-'13 record: 14-17 (11-5)
'12-'13 postseason: None
'12-'13 KenPom: .2355 (7th MEAC, 277th national)

Preseason conf. poll: 4th of 13
ESPN projection: 4th of 13

Preseason KenPom: .4069 (2nd MEAC, 217th national)
Preseason Hanner: 4th MEAC, 234th national
Preseason TeamRank: 4th MEAC, 230th national

Chance of a win: Very, very high

This will be the second game of the Corpus Christi Challenge; after we host Liberty and Hampton, all the teams travel to Texas for the tournament-y portion of the tournament.  Hampton had a rotten start to the season last year, losing to a bunch of really bad teams, but recovered in conference play largely by playing pretty good defense and miserable offense.

Sophomore point guard Deron Powers is a lot like Navy's Tilman Dunbar: good at running the show and passing, awful at scoring his own self despite leading the team in ppg.  Du'Vaughn Maxwell is a forward with a reasonably effective mid-range game, but his main talent is blocking shots, which he's quite good at.  However, the same mid-major story reigns here: yada yada thin frontcourt, not real big overall, nobody over 225 pounds.  (And most of them 215 or under.)  Hampton could not score last year and was the third-worst three-point shooting team in the country; such a team will not match up well against one of the best defensive teams in UVA.

SMU

American Athletic Conference

'12-'13 record: 15-17 (5-11)
'12-'13 postseason: None
'12-'13 KenPom: .4424 (10th CUSA, 186th national)

Preseason conf. poll: 6th of 10
ESPN projection: 5th of 10

Preseason KenPom: .7100 (5th AAC, 76th national)
Preseason Hanner: 7th AAC, 105th national
Preseason TeamRank: 5th AAC, 82nd national

Chance of a win: Good, plus or minus who knows what

Maybe the most interesting case on the schedule.  There's a real chance this team could be pretty good, possibly NIT-good, for the first time in a long time.  The AAC (we're supposed to call it "The American" but I'll get on that right after I recognize the NCAA's play-ins as the "first round") is a top-heavy league, having been left with the non-Catholic remnants of the old Big East (Louisville, UConn, Cincy) and adding Memphis as well.  Nobody in that league will threaten that top four.  SMU is being given a real chance to be the best of the rest.

Famously capricious but undeniably talented coach Larry Brown is the reason.  Brown spent the offseason working on a major talent upgrade, so much so that it's possible none of last year's five starters will retain that designation.  The offense turned the ball over a ton, but Brown was able to recruit a Burger Boy in big shooting guard Keith Frazier, who gives the program instant credibility.

In the frontcourt, Cannen Cunningham was a quality defender last year, and Brown added juco transfer Yannick Moreira as well as former Villanova Wildcat Markus Kennedy.  And 6'7" Jalen Jones, who averaged 14 ppg last year, is listed as a guard but has more of a forward's game.

So there's some intrigue involved here.  Even more so because this is the first Corpus Christi game; winner takes on the winner of Texas A&M and Missouri State.  Neither are exactly fascinating for RPI purposes, but A&M is the better team.

Wisconsin

Big Ten Conference

'12-'13 record: 23-12 (12-6)
'12-'13 postseason: NCAA 5 seed; lost in 1st round
'12-'13 KenPom: .9045 (5th B1G, 13th national)

Preseason conf. poll: 4th of 12
ESPN projection: 4th of 12

Preseason KenPom: .8737 (5th B1G, 22nd national)
Preseason Hanner: 3rd B1G, 10th national
Preseason TeamRank: 3rd B1G, 8th national

Chance of a win: A notch above 50/50

You know the conferences just love matching UVA and Wisconsin on purpose.  It's the whole Tony Bennett connection, plus the fact that UW is our evil doppelganger.  Bo Ryan's teams play nasty defense and slow-paced ball, so the usual joke for this game is "first to 40 wins."  Wisconsin loses several key pieces (especially in the hair department, having graduated ginger-mop Mike Bruesewitz and flat-topped Ryan Evans) but Bo Ryan has been around too long to assume the Badgers can't replace them.

Evans was a terribly inefficient player, so on the offensive end, that may be addition by subtraction.  (Evans was a very good defensive rebounder, though.)  Wisconsin does bring back some sharpshooters, particularly mismatch forward Sam Dekker and shooting guard Josh Gasser, the latter of whom missed last season with a knee injury.  Point guard Ben Brust is also a solid offensive player, and Wisconsin may also try out four-star recruit Bronson Koenig (whom Tony Bennett pursued with some vigor), giving the Badgers a deep and talented backcourt.

The frontcourt players will all be trying on new roles, though; center Frank Kaminsky has proven to be an effective shot-blocker and tries a few threes at times as well, though he hasn't yet shown that he needs special attention on defense in that regard.  Kaminsky will be asked to at least double his minutes this year.  Beyond him, Wisconsin needs to turn to sparingly-used Evan Anderson, or else one or two of the frontcourt freshmen they brought in.

The bottom line is a team that should be better on offense than they were last year, but may need some time to get up to speed on defense.  I wouldn't count out a Bo Ryan-coached team, though.

Green Bay

Horizon League

'12-'13 record: 18-16 (10-6)
'12-'13 postseason: lost in CIT 1st round
'12-'13 KenPom: .5896 (4th Horizon, 123rd national)

Preseason conf. poll: 1st of 9
ESPN projection: 2nd of 9

Preseason KenPom: .6773 (1st Horizon, 93nd national)
Preseason Hanner: 2nd Horizon, 119th national
Preseason TeamRank: 2nd Horizon, 84th national

Chance of a win: Somewhat better than good

The prognosticators can't quite agree whether Green Bay or Wright State should be the Horizon favorite (and indeed UWGB took the media poll by a single point) but they all agree the Phoenix should be pretty good.  They only lose one senior and return basically all their important pieces from a team that had a pretty successful season last year.

Style-wise, Green Bay doesn't shoot a lot of threes, but 7'1" center Alec Brown and 5'11" Keifer Sykes hit them last season at a 43% clip.  Yup, the center.  He's a tough defender, too.  And the Phoenix have a good rebounding team overall, with forwards Jordan Fouse and Alec Mays chipping in a great deal in that regard.  Greg Mays is a capable forward off the bench, too; there is some depth here.

Brown and Sykes, though, will be the main offensive threats.  UVA handled Sykes well last year, limiting him to 4-of-13 shooting, but this year might be better-equipped to handle Brown.  Green Bay's frontcourt is probably more imposing for Horizon League competition than UVA; Akil Mitchell had 20 points against the Phoenix last year and both he and Darion Atkins pulled down nine boards.  This will be a road game, so the Green Bay fans can have a chance to watch alumnus Tony Bennett in action, so that complicates things a touch.  But that's a nice RPI touch and Green Bay should be another RPI-booster by winning more than a few conference games.

Northern Iowa

Missouri Valley Conference

'12-'13 record: 21-15 (11-7)
'12-'13 postseason: Lost in CIT semifinal
'12-'13 KenPom: .7376 (3rd MVC, 71st national)

Preseason conf. poll: 3rd of 10
ESPN projection: 3rd of 10

Preseason KenPom: .6666 (2nd MVC, 97th national)
Preseason Hanner: 2nd MVC, 69th national
Preseason TeamRank: 3rd MVC, 93rd national

Chance of a win: Higher than those numbers suggest

The short version for UNI is that they lost so much talent - and rode their starters so hard last season - that I'm a little skeptical of the high projections they're getting.  Northern Iowa barely dipped into their bench for minutes.  There were three senior starters - all gone now, of course.  Freshman (now sophomore) guard Matt Bohannon played about half the available minutes, off the bench as a three-point specialist.  Forwards Nate Buss and Chip Rank played some in relief, but not much.  Buss only played 16% of the minutes.  That was about the extent of the bench participation.

UNI will be counting a ton on forward Seth Tuttle, a terrifically efficient all-around player who can do just about anything.  Rebound, shoot a few threes, hit free throws, and definitely score.  Tuttle should be a top candidate for first-team in his conference.  Point guard Deon Mitchell is a good passer and a very good defender, able to snag steals without fouling much.  That, plus I suppose Bohannon, who'll probably be asked to do more than just hit threes this year, is about the extent of tried-and-true talent.  The Panthers will otherwise probably look to their five-man freshman class for some help, as well as transfer guard Wes Washpun.  Of not, a familiar face may be spotted on the UNI bench: this was Paul Jesperson's landing spot.  He's not eligible this year, though.

Anyway, I think UNI is going to provide less of a test than the projections say.  Tuttle is a very, very good player, and Mitchell holds his own nicely too.  UNI needs to develop some frontcourt depth fast, though, and there are so many new faces that I think other mid-majors in theoretically worse conferences - say, Davidson or Green Bay - will be sterner tests.

Norfolk State

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

'12-'13 record: 21-12 (16-0)
'12-'13 postseason: NIT 8 seed; lost in 1st round
'12-'13 KenPom: .3927 (3rd MEAC, 203rd national)

Preseason conf. poll: 1st of 13
ESPN projection: 2nd of 13

Preseason KenPom: .4300 (1st MEAC, 204th national)
Preseason Hanner: 2nd MEAC, 226th national
Preseason TeamRank: 3rd MEAC, 206th national

Chance of a win: Very high

You'll remember these guys, last spotted giving UVA an obnoxiously difficult time in the NIT's first round.  It'll be mostly the same team this time around, and this one, depending on who you ask, is the favorite to repeat in the MEAC.  Well, sort of repeat - they ripped through their conference schedule last year at 16-0 and promptly blew it in the first round of the conference tourney.

They also have the MEAC's preseason POY in Pendarvis Williams, who I would call a prolific scorer if he took more shots.  Williams had a prodigious O-rating last year of 121, but a usage rate of only 18.6%, 7th on the team.  Part of that is because he also doesn't turn the ball over (doing so increases one's usage rate) but at any rate he ought to have the ball in his hands more, particularly, you know, seeing as how he takes care of it so well.  Also in the backcourt is point guard Jamal Fuentes, who did a good job setting up his teammates (36.5% assist rate) but a terrible job taking care of the ball (32.7% TO rate) and was a terrible shooter.

Center Brandon Goode and PF Rashid Gaston look like solid offensive players in the frontcourt, and Goode is an excellent shot-blocker.  This is the MEAC, though; there's very little depth, and one also expects UVA will remember that this team played them tough (and perhaps a little too physical) last year, and will adjust effort accordingly.

Tennessee

Southeastern Conference

'12-'13 record: 20-13 (11-7)
'12-'13 postseason: NIT 2 seed; lost in 1st round
'12-'13 KenPom: .7214 (6th SEC, 75th national)

Preseason conf. poll: 3rd of 14
ESPN projection: 3rd of 14

Preseason KenPom: .8263 (4th SEC, 34th national)
Preseason Hanner: 3rd SEC, 34th national
Preseason TeamRank: 4th SEC, 36th national

Chance of a win: About even or just over

The Vols are the final piece of the nonconference puzzle, as UVA takes a trip to Knoxville to fulfull the other end of a home-and-home series.  They're expected to be a contender in the SEC - one intrepid voter even picked them to win it - and go to the NCAAs this year, and they'll go on that quest with a very different lineup than the one that scored 38 points in Charlottesville last year.

One holdover will be Jarnell Stokes, a big, beefy forward who's a nationally-elite rebounder.  Senior wing Jordan McRae didn't start against UVA, but he worked himself into the starting lineup later in the year.  Josh Richardson is a very similar player to McRae in both skills and physical makeup; the primary difference is McRae has a three-point game while Richardson is a better midrange player.

Tennessee has to deal with the loss of point guard Trae Golden to Georgia Tech, and they'll replace him with Memphis transfer Antonio Barton.  Barton, however, would probably need a major boost in his game to replace what Golden brought.  The Vols will also expect big things from five-star freshman SG Robert Hubbs.  Besides Stokes, though, this is likely to be a perimeter-heavy team.  Playing in what's likely to be a tough atmosphere will be a big test for the Hoos, but they should be at least slightly favored.

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So, the verdict on the schedule: I like it better than when I started.  This is upon coming to the realization that, whether done on purpose or not, several of the mid-majors should give a hidden boost to the RPI.  These teams - Green Bay, Davidson, Norfolk State for example - are expected to do well in their own conference, boosting UVA's SOS component to the RPI.  Liberty and Hampton should at least not be disastrous.  UNI may not either, if the pundits are smarter than I am.  (Which seems likely.)  Navy will be a monstrous drag, but oh well.  If we're able to add Texas A&M to the list (instead of Missouri State) it'll be another small boost.

Better yet, there are a few games away from home.  Davidson is a neutral-court game, as will be the games in Corpus, and Green Bay is on the road.  Teams should schedule an easy road game or two every year just to goose their RPIs a little; remember, the win-loss aspect of the RPI doesn't take into account the strength of the opponent.  (It's a common misconception.  In other words, you can beat Somalia State or Kentucky on the road and get the same W-L bonus; it's the SOS part where you'll get burned or lifted.) 

This is part of the reason, by the way, that I've occasionally advocated a yearly neutral-court game in Norfolk, Richmond, or DC during Christmastime.  UNI or NSU would be ideal games for this as they take place on the 21st and 23rd of December, respectively.  The students are gone and nobody wants to drive up to Charlottesville for a game when they're trying to deal with Christmas preparations, so these rarely fail to be badly-attended games.  So it's not like the department would be giving up much revenue, if any at all, and we'd be able to cheat the RPI just that little bit more.

At any rate, I'd still like to see maybe one more marquee or semi-marquee game.  I suppose in many years that would be taken care of by playing in a more prestigious tourney than the Corpus Christi thing, although one argument I don't accept is "we automatically get a B1G team so we don't need to add too much more."  I mean, I don't need a game on an aircraft carrier or anything.  But maybe a second B1G, A-10, or SEC team, or start that Georgetown series I keep harping about or something.

Still, this should be a decent schedule.  Especially if we come through it undefeated, which is possible.  VCU looms as perhaps the toughest test, and that's mainly because the press break is still a boogeyman for the Hoos.  One or two losses won't doom us to another NIT selection show, but expectations for this team are such that an undefeated run through this portion of the sked could set a lot of radars pointed toward Charlottesville.

weekend review

Damn right I didn't write anything yesterday about the game.  How many different ways can you say, "Yup, we still suck."  I guess in German maybe.  "Ja, wir sind immer noch schrecklich."

It couldn't be more obvious that London is coaching himself onto thin ice.  Nothing has happened this season to suggest he deserves to stay on, and it's probably two people - named Quin Blanding and Andrew Brown - that are keeping him here, plus the money it would take to buy out the contract.  I suspect if this recruiting class had nothing but three-star players, the money would come a lot easier.

The only suspense left for this season is whether London indeed stays on til next year.  I still think so.  I've seen stuff floating around - besides Craig Littlepage's quotes to the papers - that suggest so.  I also have this in my email inbox:

"The BOV member told [the emailer's dad] that there was a private meeting with Littlepage and two of our biggest boosters regarding a buyout of London's contract. According to the BOV member, London is gone if we finish 2-10."

That could still mean anything, really; it might simply be the board member putting two and two together in a way that leads him to that conclusion.  Or it might be straight from the mouth of Littlepage and then to my inbox, via a few detours on the way.  You know how these things go.

At any rate, London only has a few more games left to save his job.  The next two don't count.  Oh, I suppose if he goes on a three-game winning streak he can ease up the pressure on 2014.  Don't worry, he won't.  Starting with the last game of this season, London probably has seven games at most to keep his job.  It might not be the Virginia way, for whatever dumb reason, to fire someone midseason, but whether or not London is actually fired midseason next year, the decision will be made by then.  Maybe sooner if we should lose to Richmond, which is the second game of the year.  UVA hasn't been 0-5 in the ACC since 1981, which means that London has succeeded in putting himself in the company of the immortal Dick Bestwick.

A few notes from press conferences London has held of late:

-- Demetrious Nicholson, out for the season.  That's not going to improve the situation.

-- Various players will be looking for medical redshirts.  They'll probably get them as the NCAA gives only the most cursory look before rubber-stamping such requests.

-- Not to do with London's press conferences, but it was just awfully nice of both Dabo Swinney and the announcers during the game to make some noise about how UVA is oh so close and just a little more patience and UVA will be a real surprise team and all that.  I'm sure they meant well.  Really.  When your opponents are throwing you a pity party, though....you probably suck a hell of a lot.

-- And now the most troubling aspect by far.  Jamie Oakes paraphrased a London quote this way:

"When asked about the effort and intensity of the team in yesterday's game, London said that at the beginning of the game it was excellent. Clemson executed their offense and defense like an experienced team should.  London said that the team was reeling after Clemson's scoring binge in the second quarter. He said that Clemson played all four quarters like all good teams do."

That's the closest you'll get to a neon marquee with spotlights and a great big flashing sign that says THE TEAM UP AND QUIT.  "At the beginning of the game [effort and intensity] was excellent" is another way of saying "at the end of the game it sucked horse balls."  And "Clemson played all four quarters" is the same thing as "and we most certainly did not."

London's messages to the media about not dwelling on the losses and staying positive are not making it through to the team.  Then again, why should they, when London's pre-game message is "nothing to lose" and his first big decision of the game is to punt on 4th-and-1 from midfield?

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-- Speaking of crappy teams, how about a look at a sport that I'm not sure has ever been featured on these pages: Volleyball.  They haven't had a winning record since 2008 and haven't won four ACC matches in a row since 2006, but the latter streak ended this week and they carry a 14-10, 7-5 record so far.  Get a new coach and watch things look a lot brighter; Dennis Hohenshelt is in his second season.  The team is in 6th place in the ACC and has already (with eight matches left to go) earned as many ACC wins as the last two seasons combined.

-- The ladies' soccer team dispatched Maryland with prejudice from the ACC tournament by a 6-1 score.  The semifinals (against 4-seeded VT) are on Friday on ESPN3, and if they make the final, that's on ESPNU.  There were no upsets in the first round, so the other game is the 2-3 between UNC and FSU.  I might just have occasion to post a highlight video; who'd have thought I'd have women's soccer and not a single football video?

-- I'll update the recruiting board when there's more than one update to make, but Madre London went and committed to Michigan State.

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Senior Seasons and so on and etc.

Peachtree Ridge 47, Meadowcreek 0: Jordan Ellis set a school record with five touchdown runs in his team's blowout win.  Peachtree Ridge is 7-2.

Bayside 20, Cox 14: Quin Blanding took a 56-yard wildcat run to the end zone for the game-winning score as Bayside improved their playoff hopes.  Bayside is 5-4.

Upland 26, Etiwanda 19 (Jeffery Farrar) - Upland is 6-3.
IMG Academy 19, Central Catholic 13 (Caanan Brown) - CCC is 7-2.
Dacula 24, Central Gwinnett 6 (Darious Latimore) - Central is 2-7.
Reidsville 35, Cummings 7 (Will Richardson) - Cummings is 3-7.
Malvern Prep 49, Episcopal 21 (Evan Butts) - Episcopal is 7-2.
Oscar Smith 35, Great Bridge 0 (Andrew Brown) - Oscar Smith is 9-0.
Courtland 34, Chancellor 0 (Steven Moss) - Chancellor is 1-8.
Woodgrove 24, Broad Run 23 (J.J. Jackson) - Woodgrove is 6-3.

game preview: Clemson

Date/Time: Saturday, November 2; 3:30

TV: ESPN

Record against the Tigers: 8-37-1

Last meeting: Clem. 34, UVA 21; 11/21/09, Clemson

Last weekend: GT 35, UVA 25; Clem. 40, Md. 27

Line: Clemson by 18

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT - OL George Adeosun, CB Maurice Canady, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, DT Brent Urban, S Wil Wahee

DOUBTFUL - none

QUESTIONABLE - none

PROBABLE - OG Conner Davis, K Ian Frye

Clemson:

OUT - DB MacKensie Alexander, OL Patrick DeStefano, DT Kevin Dodd, RB Tyshon Dye,  LB Kellen Jones, WR Charone Peake, CB Garry Peters, DT Carlos Watkins

DOUBTFUL -

QUESTIONABLE -

PROBABLE - RB Zac Brooks

What were you doing in 1999?  I'd guess your life was a lot different back then.  Three presidential terms have come and gone since then, and then some.  According to my high school yearbook, the Sega Dreamcast came out then.  This was 14 years ago.  I bring this up because the next time Clemson visits Charlottesville will be 14 years from now: 2027.  That's when V for Vendetta takes place FFS.  This is the brave new, stupid ACC.

Of course, Clemson might be a poor example of a team we should play more often, given the sound thrashing they're about to lay on our football team.  This week will put a merciful end to the season, afte which point the team will perhaps be playing for nothing more than to save their coach's job.

-- UVA run offense vs. Clemson run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 144 carries, 614 yards, 4.3 ypc, 9 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 38 carries, 248 yards, 6.5 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
162.63 yards/game, 3.86 yards/attempt
92nd of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

Clemson defense:
144.13 yards/game, 3.79 yards/attempt
41st of 125 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

The likely return of Conner Davis is a small piece of good news for a running game that proved mostly impotent against Georgia Tech.  UVA has tried a lot of combinations, but this one, with Davis at LG and Whitmire at RG, has proven to be, on balance, the best of an unpalatable array of choices.

The drawback is that Luke Bowanko's snap issues are returning.  Part of the reason he makes a better guard than center is because of his erratic shotgun snaps, which tend to be high and throw off the timing of the read-option as well as just plain regular runs out of the pistol.  When your main back is Kevin Parks, whose acceleration isn't top-level stuff, it makes everything run a tick slow, and that in turn just piles up the issues on an offensive line that has a tough time as it is with holding blocks for long enough.

Adding to the difficulties is that bane of the UVA offense, a quality defensive tackle.  For Clemson it's Grady Jarrett.  They also have a pair of excellent linebackers in Spencer Shuey and Stephone Anthony, the two leading tacklers.  Two-thirds of the way through the season and they already have 78 and 80 tackles, respectively.  I'm less impressed by SLB Quandon Christian, and I think UVA would have more success running to that side than the other.  But Clemson's defensive line is more than good enough to cover any weaknesses among the linebackers - not that there are many.

Other than an inexplicable meltdown against Syracuse and the opening game against Georgia, teams haven't been real successful running the ball against Clemson.  It's unlikely ours is the team to break that trend.  I don't think Parks will manage more than 60 yards, and the rest of the running attack will fall in place behind.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Clemson pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 191/314, 60.8%; 1,715 yards, 7 TDs, 9 INTs; 5.46 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 31 rec., 265 yards, 2 TDs
Kevin Parks: 29 rec., 285 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
219.9 yards/game, 5.3 yards/attempt
124th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Clemson defense:
230.6 yards/game, 7.4 yards/attempt
81st of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

Why is Clemson looking upwards in the Atlantic Conference race?  Because of the 444 yards they gave up to Jameis Winston.  David Watford isn't Winston and has nothing close to the surrounding talent, but this remains the weaker point of Clemson's defense.

Actually, it doesn't mean they're not dangerous, though.  Clemson's 29 sacks are tops in the country, and their 13 picks are tied for 8th.  Cornerbacks Bashaud Breeland and Darius Robinson have three picks apiece, and speed-rushing DE Vic Beasley has ten sacks.  GT's Jeremiah Attaochu abused right tackle Eric Smith, sometimes simply by juking him without ever being engaged in a block, and Smith will have his hands full again; no doubt Clemson paid attention to the film and won't bother lining up Beasley across from Morgan Moses.

Clemson, though, is also prone to allowing the big play.  They sit near the bottom of the national rankings in this regard.  That means if UVA is even going to keep this thing close(ish), Tim Smith needs to repeat his performance of last week.  Having Jake McGee back will be a big plus, but Watford needs multiple options to stretch the field or there just won't be any point to this at all.  It's Smith who has emerged as a downfield threat - not in terms of the one big lightning strike, but he can create 20, 25-yard plays.  Consistency is a problem, of course, as he's yet to really do anything two games in a row this year.

Watford is likely to have a tough time with this pass rush.  Consider it experience for the VT game.  Clemson averages more than 3.5 sacks a game, so predicting three, as I was planning on doing, starts to look pretty weak; let's say four.  I think Watford can continue to top 200 yards and the Hoos should be able to move the ball in fits and starts, but expecting a repeat of last week would be too much.

-- Clemson run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Roderick McDowell: 119 carries, 607 yards, 5.1 ypc, 2 TDs
Zac Brooks: 47 carries, 234 yards, 5.0 ypc, 2 TDs

Clemson offense:
175.88 yards/game, 3.94 yards/attempt
87th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
182.0 yards/game, 4.56 yards/attempt
84th of 125 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

Tailback Roderick McDowell is a decent back, but let's face it, even as the starter he's essentially Tajh Boyd's change of pace.   A great deal of the Clemson run game is the read-option run between Boyd and McDowell, and Boyd has 72 carries for 334 yards once you take away sacks.

In that sense it's a good deal for us that the defense has been seeing the read-option in practice.  The basics of defending it are to do one of two things: have your defensive tackle kick some ass while the DE pops out to take the QB (but there's no Urban) or crash the DE to take the RB and "scrape" the linebacker outside.  I have, however, no idea what Jon Tenuta is doing with linebackers these days, given the strange appearance of this week's depth chart.

One thing seems sure: Max Valles as anything other than a situational pass-rusher seems like a bad idea.  Valles is inexperienced and it showed badly against GT; against the read-option I'd rather stick with the experienced and trustworthy Romero and Coley.  And if Tenuta blitzes up the middle, that's great except that Boyd will probably just keep and head outside for a big gain.

Clemson will get their yards here; they've been pretty successful all season without being spectacular.  Steady is the word, as the run game gets its share of room just from teams hanging back, understandably scared of the pass.  I'm not too worried about there being a big play here, but there's no reason the Tigers shouldn't just continue to be able to do what they do, which is pick up five yards whenever they want to.

-- Clemson pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Tajh Boyd: 168/263, 63.9%; 2,243 yards, 17 TDs, 5 INTs; 8.53 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Sammy Watkins: 58 rec., 813 yards, 5 TDs
Adam Humphries: 30 rec., 368 yards, 2 TDs

Clemson offense:
319.6 yards/game, 8.1 yards/attempt
36th of 125 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
211.8 yards/game, 6.6 yards/attempt
39th of 125 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

No Nicholson, no Canady, going against Sammy Watkins and Tajh Boyd.  There's no need to overthink this.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 2.5
UVA pass offense: 3.5
UVA run defense: 3.5
UVA pass defense: 1

Average: 2.63

-- Outlook

For the cliff notes, just reread the pass defense segment.  I cannot think of a single reason this should go well.  It's possible to look at UVA and see a team scrapping for a win and continuing to improve but tragically coming up short each time.  It's also possible to see a reeling, injury-riddled, often undisciplined team with unsolvable weaknesses, going up against a legitimate top-ten team in the country.  The improvement might just result in one win, maybe against Carolina or VT's putrid offense.  For now, Tivo will come in handy should I want to see any play in particular; I'll be watching Michigan-MSU.

-- Prediction summary

-- Kevin Parks fails to reach 60 yards on the ground.

-- David Watford passes for over 200 yards.

-- Watford is sacked at least four times.

-- Sammy Watkins needs 187 yards to reach 1,000 for the season.  He'll get them all Saturday.

Final score: Clemson 51, UVA 17

-- Rest of the ACC

Virginia Tech @ Boston College - 12:00 - Any team that plays a decently disciplined defense against VT is an upset risk - and BC does.

North Carolina @ NC State - 12:30 - UNC is 2-5, and could easily finish the regular season 7-5.

Wake Forest @ Syracuse - 12:30 - A likely Bowl Eligibility Bowl in the Atlantic.

Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech - 7:00 - GT can clinch a postseason trip.

Miami @ Florida State - 8:00 - Possible preview of the ACCCG.

Byes: Maryland, Duke

2013 hoops preview: players, part 2

The second half of what got begun last night.

#12 - Joe Harris - Sr. SF

2013 O-rating: 111.1

Besides shoot threes, which he does really really well, there isn't a lot that jumps out about Joe Harris's game that's exceptional.  He's fairly average, athletically speaking; his defense is solid but he's not going to lock anyone down.  He's got a nice handle, better than you'd expect til you see it in action, but it's not like he's got the Allen Iverson crossover.

But he fills the bucket.  A lot.  How?  One of the best shooting touches in the league from anywhere on the court, and a healthy dose of moxie.  Enough to get himself voted to the preseason all-ACC team.  This was Harris's team last year and it showed - particularly in the big games, like oh say Duke, in which Harris scored a crazy (especially for Tony's pace) 36 points.

Now he's in his second year as the team go-to guy.  That's a luxury few teams have, getting an undisputed do-everything leader back for seconds.  Harris may well see his production decline - he scored 16.3 points a game last year and thanks to a wider array of options this year, don't be surprised to see him not reach that level again.  But there's little doubt he'll be deferred to in crunch time again this year, quite possibly even to the extent of once again having him bring the ball up the court while trying to protect a lead.  Highly flexible and unflappable in any situation, Harris is like a glue guy who scores a lot.

#13 - Anthony Gill - So. PF

2012 O-rating: 100.2

If there's an X-factor this year, this is it.  We can pretty reasonably expect a certain level of improvement from guys like Mike Tobey and Justin Anderson.  Joe Harris is a well-known quantity, as is Akil Mitchell to a large extent.  But Gill - we don't have much to go on.  Just a freshman season with a shitty South Carolina team and some very glowing reports from practice last year, during which Gill couldn't play due to NCAA transfer rules.

The numbers from his freshman season are good but largely unremarkable.  Despite often being described as a true power forward, he can shoot an occasional three as well.  Should be rangier than Akil Mitchell in terms of shooting locations.  As for the rest - well, if you believe all you heard last year and into this one, Gill and Mitchell could sub in and out for each other and there would never be any dropoff.

On the other hand, last year we saw some early potential in having a dynamic combination of power forwards with Mitchell and Darion Atkins on the floor.  Before Atkins got hurt it was an at times devastating combo.  With Gill, you could make it any two of three, picking and choosing as you like.  One thing we do know for certain: Gill makes it four bona fide frontcourt players, something Tony has not had in his tenure here.

My best guess is that Gill doesn't make the starting lineup, not early on; the starting frontcourt probably consists of Tobey and Mitchell.  Gill and Mitchell is possible depending on the matchup, but Gill stands a great chance of instead being the first guy off the bench.  Gotta rotate those frontcourt guys and keep them fresh.  The scary part is what happens then if Gill really is a minimal dropoff from Mitchell - going against opposing second-stringers could be awfully unfair.

#15 - Malcolm Brogdon - So. PG

2012 O-rating: 92.9

Another guy counted among the reinforcements this year, Brogdon was shut down early in the season when it became clear his broken foot was healing too slowly.  Brogdon has flat feet, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little concerned that his feet could be a chronic problem because of it.

Plans are to make him the starting point guard; his more natural position might be the two, and indeed I'd be very surprised if he didn't play off the ball some this year.  The more Teven Jones or one of the freshmen develop, the more that can happen.  But to start, Brogdon will be handed the duties.  He's big for a 1, of course, so, his ability to defend the position might occasionally be called into question.  But he's a heady player and few doubt his ability to understand the offense.

Plus, he's a much more versatile threat on offense than Jontel Evans was.  He'll probably drive about as much as Evans did, but the style will be different; Evans was much smaller and had to go around defenders more than Brogdon will have to.  But Brogdon, obviously, will shoot a jump shot more than once a month, and won't freeze up at the stripe.  Evans was a nifty passer and I think the jury's out on how Brogdon will do in that regard.

I think, at times, Brogdon will fall short of Evans as an operator of the offense in ways that won't be evident to the casual observer.  Missed opportunities that come and go in a second, that sort of thing.  Evans, for his flaws as a player, was still a senior and knew his way around the court.  But in more visible ways, Brogdon will be an improvement.  It wouldn't be a stretch, either, to call him the most important player on the team; if for whatever reason he proves unable to handle the point guard job once the games become real, the remaining options are scary for reasons of freshmanness.

#23 - London Perrantes - Fr. PG

Commitment post

If there's such a thing as momentum for players on a depth chart, you'd have to say London Perrantes has it over Devon Hall in the freshman point guard derby.  With the exception of a minor injury thing that's kept him out of action lately, the vibe seems to be that if only one freshman guard plays, right now it'd be Perrantes.

That's unsurprising if you buy the scouting reports from his high school days, which credited him with an elite basketball IQ and a pass-first mentality.  Perrantes probably will not come out lighting up any score sheets, and might yet be 3rd in the rotation behind Brogdon and Teven Jones, and of course, repeat after me, it depends on his defense.  If he plays significant minutes, and early on I would consider 6-8 significant, we're looking for assists, not points.

I'd say we'll know if Perrantes is successful in Tony's eyes if Jones's minutes start dwindling in favor of Perrantes, and we'll really know he's successful if Devon Hall starts working out some off the ball.  The opposite is not true for Hall, because Hall has more flexibility in his game.  With Perrantes it's kind of point guard or bust.  Regardless, as long as Brogdon is even reasonably good at point guard, we'll have the luxury of seeing both freshmen brought along slowly and placed in situations where they can succeed and learn at the same time.  Once Evans got back from injury last year, that's what we were able to do with Jones; we saw how problematic the results could be when we weren't able to take it slow.  That's kind of a rough blueprint for how the freshmen will be handled this year, too.

#25 - Akil Mitchell - Sr. PF

2013 O-rating: 111.0

Mitchell was one of the best stories out of last season.  Joe Harris's emergence on the ACC scene was excellent, and Justin Anderson had some moments.  Lots of moments, actually.  But Mitchell is, so far, the best testament to the staff's development skills.  Mitchell came in as the biggest project of the six players in Tony's vaunted first recruiting class.  Labeled the best athlete of the bunch but also the rawest, he was a little bit of a forgotten man while a lot of the attention went to more court-ready scorers.

Now it's Mitchell doing the scoring.  His first two years, he was all gangly-armed defense and putback offense.  As a junior, suddenly there were actual moves.  Akil has a little hook shot that confounds his defenders, and he's learned to harness his athleticism and put it to use as a rebounding machine, low-post scorer, and shot blocker.  Mitchell takes a lot of pride in that rebounding, and has a green light from Tony to hit the offensive boards as well.

Along with the development of his offense has come the development of his passion.  To be honest, he wasn't the most visible player on the court his first two years, perhaps feeling overshadowed (understandably so) by Mike Scott.  Last year there was more of an edge to his game, a little more authority in his dunks.  There was no mistaking his presence on the court last year, and it went a long, long way in softening the blow of losing Scott to graduation and the NBA.  The team is Harris's, but Mitchell is now essentially the leader and elder statesman of the frontcourt players.  Like Harris, his productivity in terms of raw numbers could go down, just thanks to the depth on the roster, but it's also correct to say that Mitchell has more room than Harris to grow his game, too.

#32 - Darion Atkins - Jr. PF

2013 O-rating: 95.4

With apologies to Evans, probably the most disappointing injury of 2012-13 was Atkins going down with what essentially amounted to severe shin splints.  Atkins had five games of double-digit scoring in the nonconference portion of the schedule, with a breakout performance against Wisconsin.  He and Mitchell combined to give UVA a pair of long, rangy, bouncy forwards who had a nasty habit of being all over the court at once, and opposing teams were at a loss to figure out ways to attack the pack-line when it was being manned by this kind of athlete.

When the shin thing set in, though, the difference in Atkins's game was palpable.  He had nowhere near the lift or range or speed that he had before.  He was just a guy trying gamely to get in people's way.  It sucked watching him play when you knew what he'd been doing before he got hurt.

Should we expect the same thing now that he's healthy?  I'm not sure I see him getting 35 minutes in any game this season (barring injury elsewhere) the way he did against Wisconsin; in fact I'm sure he doesn't.  It's that depth again.  But that relentless streak will be his key to the court.  Especially - all together now - if it returns to his defense.  I'm not worried, mind.  He's already displayed his talent for, as I so eloquently put it after the UNC game, "making dunk go bye-bye."  However, there are so many scoring options on this team that Atkins moves down the ladder in that regard.  He will make his name this year on defense or see his minutes trickle away to Anthony Gill.

**********************************************

If the referees get serious about calling hand-check stuff the way they've been making noise about, there won't be a team in the country that doesn't run into tons of foul trouble.  That'll be good news for a team as deep as ours.  Let them call the fouls; not many teams can run out four frontcourt players as talented as Tobey, Gill, Mitchell, and Atkins.  The constant barrage of fresh forwards and one true center should be a huge weapon with the potential to bludgeon a lot of teams into submission.

In fact, if all pans out, this team will be able to score from anywhere it likes.  Harris and Nolte, and to a lesser extent Anderson and Brogdon will be downtown threats.  Tobey and Jones can do some of that too.  The frontcourt is an obvious strength.  And there's nobody - seriously, nobody - who makes you groan when they step to the stripe.  And none of this breathless optimism has taken into account the defense yet, which is getting close to take-for-granted territory.  Pundits basically do, by now.  You play Virginia, you're not gonna score much.  You just aren't.

Previews almost always tend toward believing the best of every player, though, so it should definitely be cautioned that there's a lot of variance.  Only Harris and Mitchell can truly be called known quantities.  Gill and Brogdon are coming off a year on ice; Atkins was slowed too much by injury last year to get a good sense of his full-season potential; we're counting on a nice steep improvement curve from Anderson and Tobey; Perrantes and Hall are freshmen.  And you know what I say about Nice Things, so someone will probably get hurt this year.  But the reason you can still be excited about the potential is that this is finally a team with the depth to withstand a body blow or two.  Not everything has to go just right for this year to be a lot of fun.  If it does all go just right - hello, world.

2013 hoops preview: players, part 1

Fin-al-ly.  10 days from now, the basketball season opens in earnest against JMU, and Tony Bennett gets to unveil the most talented team he's ever coached at Virginia.  This is a team that people are noticing.  I thought the media ranking UVA fourth in the conference is pretty high praise - and it is - but that was until I saw ESPN projecting UVA second.  Dan Hanner's projections have us 11th in the country.  (!!!!!!!!)  KenPom has us 19th, as does Andy Katz.  People are looking.  Everyone is looking.  Pacism is evaporating.  (Slowly.)  Expectations are rising.  I think, for the first time in a long time, the media is more bullish on the Hoos than our fans are.  I think that's a good thing.

All this comes at a time when the ACC is returning to the gauntlet of land mines that it was in the past.  For a time there, many of the conference's teams had saddled themselves with junk coaches - Paul Hewitt, Sidney the Big Red Coach, Oliver Purnell, yes, and Dave Leitao too - and the league's fortunes suffered.  Now the league is bigger, with three new and very good additions, and the league is getting better coaching from guys like Brian Gregory at GT and Steve Donahue at BC.  Now you play 18 ACC games instead of 16.  Duke and UNC haven't gone anywhere, wish as we might that they would.  So being near the top of all this is exciting.  Even if it is just blather at this point, before the rubber hits the hardcourt.

The season preview will be split into four parts.  Today and tomorrow, we'll take a look at each of the players and what they bring to the table.  Next week, a look at the teams on the nonconference schedule, and then a compilation of the various preseason ratings for the teams of the ACC.  KenPom is essentially the pioneer, but advanced metrics are beginning to explode for college basketball and there are several to be used - and what the hell, we'll throw in the media poll despite its position on the opposite end of the scientific spectrum.  I'd have liked to switch the order of that, but TeamRankings isn't quite finished yet with their look.  Later on in the year, after we've had a chance to get a handle on things (it's cheating and I don't care because it's great filler for when there's little else to talk about, since, you know, no bowl game and all) there'll be the individual team previews for the ACC teams.

Let's get a move-on with the roster.

(Quick explanation on O-ratings: they are KenPom's and they measure a player's offensive efficiency.  Higher is better.  Roughly, 100 is about average, over 105 is good, over 110 is very good to excellent, over 115 is brilliant, and over 120 is elite - assuming the player in question has played enough minutes.)

#0 - Devon Hall - Fr. PG

Commitment post

That post was a bit more breathlessly optimistic than the current outlook on Devon Hall, given the line, "No doubt, of course, that Hall will be thrown into the fire right away, and could very well start every game he plays at UVA."  That's not likely to happen, with a direct competitor in London Perrantes, and Malcolm Brogdon looking very likely to handle the brunt of the point guard responsibilities.  The development of Teven Jones is a factor too.  Not to mention that most of the recruiting services backed off their early ratings and bumped him from four to three stars.

I did get one thing right: Hall, at the time, was listed at 6'4", 180, and I figured he'd hit 6'5", 200+ by the time he got here.  He's now 6'5", 210.  That separates him somewhat from the pack, except for Brogdon who's also big for the PG role.  Size in your point guard is a plus in Tony's defensive system, assuming the player in question still has the requisite quickness to stay on the ball.  And you know how it goes: if you can defend, you play.

So we'll see if Hall can defend.  He's no sure thing to be in the rotation, though.  If not, he'll either redshirt or fans will spend most of the season wishing he did.  If Hall does win a spot, you're not looking at a 25-minute player, and he won't be a tremendous scorer yet.  ESPN, in their final scouting report, called him "cut from the Kendall Marshall mold" which is to say he's a pass-first, -second, and -third point guard.  If he's good at that (and if he can defend, which you can just assume is attached to everyone these days) he ought to find his way into the lineup and could even increase his minutes as time goes on.  But holding world-beating expectations for Hall right now is a huge overcalculation - and the bottom line is, that's a good thing because speaks to the team's depth rather than Hall's own skills.

#1 - Justin Anderson - So. SF

2013 O-rating: 106.3

Changing his number from 23 now that Jontel Evans (the former occupant) has graduated, Anderson is one of the players who's being looked at to really elevate UVA into the top tier of squads in the country.  Anderson's fun factor is tops on the team - he's a supremely athletic player who's been known to be on either end of an alley-oop (which certainly includes the reverse jam off a Jontel Evans lob during last year's Clemson curbstomp) and he's the most emotional and usually smilingest player on the court at any given time.

He happens to be a very good defender too.  Last year, with the frontcourt depth all but shot to pieces, he was asked to take on Maryland's 7'1" center (and eventual #5 overall pick in the NBA draft) Alex Len, and shut Len down entirely despite giving up seven inches.  He's a good shot-blocker and doesn't foul a ton either.  The emotion and electric plays are what make you notice him, but he's down there doing the grit and grunt work too.  That game against Maryland impressed me more than anything else he did last year.  His defense that day was textbook Tony, and that and the way he blossomed as the year went on (rather than bursting immediately on the scene) give high marks to his coachability.

Are there weaknesses in his game?  Naturally.  He's a mediocre three-point shooter at best, barely nudging over the .300 mark last year.  His own handle is decent but could be improved, though he's a good passer off the dribble and his assist rate showed it.  He loses efficiency fairly quickly as he gets further away from the rim.

Nevertheless, his strengths far outweigh his weaknesses.  And a small uptick in his mid-range shooting percentage could go a long way, because only 25% of his 2-point jumpers were assisted last year; raise the mid-range shooting percentage (still only about 30%, just as with his three-pointers) just a little and defenses will have no choice but to pay too much attention.  Either way, his combination of energy and athleticism ought to be a tremendous challenge for most opponents this year, and it could be scary to see what he can do as he gains experience and the game continues to slow down for him.

#5 - Teven Jones - So. PG

2013 O-rating: 91.2

One of the team's most experienced point guards.  Scary, a little, when you think about that, since Jones is only a sophomore, but this team, for all its accolades, has eight underclassmen, three upperclassmen, and none of the latter are point guards.

Jones, rather frankly, lacks the athleticism of the rest of the competition at PG, or at least, didn't put it on display last year.  He was a rotation mainstay while Evans sat out early with an injury, logging 25 minutes in four nonconference games and scoring a season-high (for him) 13 against North Texas.  As the season wore on into the conference portion, though, Tony leaned heavily on Jontel at point and Jones sat out entire games on occasion; after that 13-point effort against the Mean Green, he would score more than 6 points only once the rest of the year, and that against Norfolk State in the NIT.

When asked to carry the load, Jones was usually ill-suited to the task.  As his responsibilities eased, Jones improved.  Part of that naturally ought to be attributed to facing other second-stringers, and part also simply to a freshman getting more comfortable on the court and learning the game, just as Justin Anderson did.  Jones was much steadier later, generally selecting good shots and making them plenty often enough; in fact, since Evans would not have shot a three-pointer even with a fifty-foot cushion, bringing Jones in introduced a refreshing and exciting new element to the game.

That won't be the case this year, so Jones will have to find a new way to distinguish himself.  Much like Hall, Jones will have to fight for minutes.  He can get them by limiting the negatives; it seems unlikely Jones will ever be a full-time starter, but if he can be relied on for 5-10 minutes of steadiness per game, he won't be a forgotten man, either.

#10 - Mike Tobey - So. C

2013 O-rating: 109.1

Tobey is another reason the wonks are high on UVA.  He turned in a very good, efficient year last year; in fact, KenPom's "most similar" season to Tobey's 2013 was Kosta Koufos's 2007-08; Koufos was a one-and-done center for Ohio State who went in the first round after that season and started 81 games last year for the Nuggets.

Tobey proved to be a matchup problem for opposing centers because of his mid-range proficiency; he's one of the best seven-foot (OK, almost seven-foot) shooters in the entire country.  Tobey even canned three of five three-pointers, and at 44%, was the team's best 2-point jump shooter.  Better even than Joe Harris.  His face-up game evoked Mike Scott in Scott's brilliant senior year, except Tobey has a couple inches on Scott.

That may sound like hyperbole, and it is a little bit because Scott was a crazy 53% shooter from midrange.  Tobey has a little ways to go.  Nevertheless, Tobey does all the good things you want centers to do - rebound some, block some shots, that sort of thing - only he's a better shooter than most any center you can find, and you can't foul him either because he hits those shots too.

Here's the exciting part though: last year, he was listed at 227 pounds.  Now he's at 253.  Zounds.  Your head should now be filled with imaginings of all the great things that will do for the traditional-center parts of his game.  The defending and posting-up and all that stuff.  Tobey's a sophomore and is now toting around an NBA body.  And don't forget the shooting.  And the fact that he did what he did last year, in the later portions of it anyway, while fighting off the ill effects of mono.  Unleashing him on the ACC ought to be fun.

#11 - Evan Nolte - So. SF

2013 O-rating: 114.1

Rather than being a traditional power forward or small forward, Nolte is what I call a mismatch forward; you don't want to guard him with a four because he's too quick and you don't want to guard him with a three because he's too big and will shoot over top.  The mismatch forward is really in vogue these days.  Nolte's style opens up some intriguing possibilities on the offensive end, especially if he develops a bit of a handle, as he was largely a catch-and-shoot guy in 2012-13.

The problem is on defense.  The mismatch works the other way, as Nolte was not strong enough to guard a four last year and not quick enough (not nearly quick enough) to guard threes.  This yin and yang makes Nolte's minutes very much a high-ceiling, low-floor kind of stat.  That was borne out last year in spades; he might play 4 minutes one game and 21 a week later.  And with Justin Anderson metamorphosizing into a complete player and the addition of Anthony Gill to the lineup, Nolte could get squeezed.  Even more squeezy: if one of the freshman point guards emerges so nicely that they can move Malcolm Brogdon off the ball, which in turn would move Joe Harris as well.

However.  From a team-wide perspective, bringing Nolte off the bench for, like, 12-18 minutes a game, that could be money in the bank.  He can't guard many starting three-forwards, no - but I somehow can't see any second-stringers guarding him too effectively, either.  Nolte can shoot like crazy, after all (although this is mostly from three; he was atrocious from two once he got away from the rim) and he takes care of the ball very well.  This latter is partially a function of him just not dribbling around all that much, but still.  Remember, based on what we saw last year, we all liked the idea of being able to bring Taylor Barnette off the bench for a little instant heat.  Barnette has transferred, but Nolte is a much bigger player and rather more talented, with the ability to frustrate opposing coaches deciding how to get their 6'4" backup small forward to close out fast enough.  While Nolte is one player whose minutes are not guaranteed, it'll be really damn hard to relegate him to the outside of the rotation entirely, and I think we should expect both some forgotten-man games as well as some really big ones.

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We have 11 scholarship players; that was five.  Gonna make you wait til tomorrow for the guy who makes it all go.

weekend review

Let's get jump-started this week with Senior Seasons.  I need to keep things interesting, two-thirds of the way through a poop football season.

Upland 45, Alta Loma 20: Jeffery Farrar picked off two passes and took one to the house in a game where Upland leapt out to a big lead and never looked back.  Upland is 5-3.

Norcross 24, Peachtree Ridge 20: Norcross is one of the county's top teams, and they held Jordan Ellis to 61 yards on the ground.  Peachtree Ridge is 6-2.

Oscar Smith 62, King's Fork 12: Andrew Brown picked off a shovel pass in another Oscar Smith blowout win.  Oscar Smith is 8-0.

Central Catholic 44, Admiral Farragut 3 (Caanan Brown) - CCC is 7-1.
Parkview 21, Central Gwinnett 13 (Darious Latimore) - Central Gwinnett is 2-6.
Cummings 44, Bartlett Yancey 13 (Will Richardson) - Cummings is 3-6.
Episcopal 28, Springside Chestnut Hill 20 (Evan Butts) - Episcopal is 8-1.
Bayside 28, Kempsville 6 (Quin Blanding) - Bayside is 4-4.
Spotsylvania 14, Chancellor 12 (Steven Moss) - Chancellor is 1-7.
Woodgrove 38, Dominion 0 (J.J. Jackson) - Woodgrove is 5-3.

How about this for a fun fact: Last week at this time there were five undefeated teams in all of D-I soccer, men and women both.  They were:

Notre Dame, Cal, and Washington men
UVA and FSU women

Cal and Washington lost this weekend, Cal to San Diego and UW to UCLA.  The other two non-UVA teams just happened to both be playing UVA - and both just happened to lose to UVA.  That leaves just the UVA ladies, sitting at 18-0 - unbeaten and untied.  Notre Dame had been ranked #2 in the country before their loss to UVA, and the women, with their win, clinched the #1 seed in the ACC tourney.

The only thing that stands in the way of a nifty narrative of UVA knocking out the last two other unbeatens in the country is the West Coast time difference; Washington's game ended on Sunday after the UVA-FSU match.

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That will be about it for this week, except to point out that, with VT's loss to Duke this weekend, I feel oddly confident in saying that the VT game is probably our best shot at a win the rest of the season, even though we play a much worse team in UNC before then.  Scoring 10 points on Duke is pretty bad.  Pretty, pretty bad.  If we don't get Brent Urban and Demetrious Nicholson back, it ain't happening, but with those two, hey.  Our own offense is trying to rise, zombie-like, from the dead, and it doesn't take much defense to stop VT.  The major hurdle will be VT's pass rush, which will be the toughest one David Watford has seen all year, plus trying to gain more than 10 yards all game on the ground.

The cut-short content today will be made up for this week with much basketball preview action.  The season opener is less than two weeks away.

the stat sheet says we won

And the scoreboard says we lost.

We will jump right into the bullet points because there's no need to construct a narrative here.  376 yards of passing and a +5 non-desperation-time turnover margin, and a loss, says all that needs to be said.  It takes a pretty awful team to lose under those circumstances.  So.  Bullet points.

-- It was mentioned during the game that David Watford set new UVA records for completions and attempts.  The interesting part was that he broke the completions record before the attempts record.  The other interesting part was that both previous records were set by Matt Schaub, in another loss to Georgia Tech some 11 years ago.

-- I think Steve Fairchild called some occasionally stupid plays (you're trying to pick up a critical fourth down and you call for a pass to Billy Skrobacz?  Not to demean Skrobacz, but he's a fullback, and therefore not particularly likely to be open unless the defense fails to account for him entirely.  There wasn't another playmaker somewhere on the roster?)  But overall Fairchild's scheme is starting to work nicely.  Some "too horizontal" criticisms should be laid to rest.  Clearly, if Fairchild has the WRs to stretch the field, he'll use them, as evidenced by Tim Smith's excellent day.  I consider 13 yards per catch the dividing line between short-field possession receivers and long-field deep threats; Smith finally averaged over 15, and given the day from him and Darius Jennings, plus a couple of fine catches by Canaan Severin, I gotta give the receivers an A this week.

-- That said, before checking the box score I would have sworn that Watford's average yards per throw was much higher than 6.1.  Seemed like there were plenty of downfield throws, and Watford completed over 70%.  But nope.  Barely six yards per throw again.  So not all the concerns are laid to rest.  But Watford laid in a few really nice throws, and if he can bring on the consistency in that department he'll change the dynamic quite a bit.

-- OK, the big issue: second-quarter clock management.  The refs pretty ridiculously let five seconds run off the clock before deigning to acknowledge Mike London's timeout.  But if you're going to call a run play, it doesn't really matter; neither six nor eleven seconds are enough time to run the ball and then get the field goal unit on.  Nor is eleven seconds even enough time to run the ball and then spike it, given the time needed to untangle the pile.

The run play is mildly defensible since, you know, give the ball to your best player.  Kevin Parks had already had a touchdown that entirely consisted of yards after contact.  But on the other hand, you're putting the game in the hands of your weakest unit (the O-line) and you know this shit didn't work against Maryland so why would it now?

-- I would've also liked to see an onside kick after the touchdown and 2PC that made it 28-25, but I can see the argument for not doing so.  Just get a three-and-out and you're fine.

-- Watford might've had an even better day throwing the ball, but Eric Smith had his worst day at right tackle.  Jeremiah Attaochu abused him all day long.  I haven't noticed Smith a ton, and for a freshman RT, that's a general plus, but Saturday was not his day.

-- I really wish the defensive game plan against the option focused on forcing the keep rather than forcing the pitch.  Help is closer when the QB keeps and the GT run game never busts big plays except on the pitch.  (Or the middle handoff.)  Vad Lee and Justin Thomas combined for seven yards on eight carries.

-- I got in from seeing the Lions beat the Cowboys in way-awesome fashion (and now I get to make fun of people who left the game early), and other celebratory activities, and then had to write this depressing stuff.  What a hobby.  This is where we are, man; Saturdays suck (unless Michigan wins, then they halfway suck) and I turn to the Lions to make the weekend better.  The Lions.  That is a bad Saturday state of affairs.

Prediction review:

-- The UVA running game fails to top 125 yards.  Yup.  Even in taking out -17 from sacks and such, the running game didn't exactly rack up yards.  Part of this was game plan; London claimed that the plan called for tilting the balance toward the pass because they felt GT had a good run defense but a sucky pass defense, and there ended up being more than twice as many called passes as runs.  Part of that was also due to playing from behind, but still.

-- David Watford again tops 6 yards a pass.  Yeah, I mean, barely, but he did.  And like I said - I would've sworn he was closer to eight just from watching.  I was surprised to see the final number so low.

-- Both David Sims and Zach Laskey have 100+ yard rushing days.  They did, and I'm especially proud of myself for this one.  This one's going out on a limb since, as pointed out in the comments, they platoon.  But yeah, no middle at all without Brent Urban, who can't get back soon enough.

-- No GT receiver has a catch of 30 yards or more, unless it's mostly YAC.  Dammit.  An elusive perfect day ruined by one lousy wheel route.  Robert Godhigh's 38-yard catch, despite him being a running back and all, spent too much time in the air for me to count this one.

Moving to 19-for-40 on the season gets me close to 50%, a number I haven't beaten since I started doing this.  Ten points was exactly the spread, so I have to stick at 4-3-1 ATS but move to 5-3 straight up in my overall predictions.  Fish in a barrel, man.

game preview: Georgia Tech

Date/Time: Saturday, October 26; 12:30

TV: ACC Net., ESPN3

Record against the Jackets: 17-17-1

Last meeting: GT 56. UVA 20; 9/15/12, Atlanta

Last weekend: Duke 35, UVA 22; GT 56, Cuse 0

Line: GT by 10

Injury reports:

Virginia:

OUT - OL George Adeosun, CB Maurice Canady, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, WR E.J. Scott, DT Brent Urban, S Wil Wahee

DOUBTFUL - WR Kyle Dockins

QUESTIONABLE - G Conner Davis, K Ian Frye, TE Jake McGee

PROBABLE - LB Daquan Romero

Georgia Tech:

OUT - WR Anthony Autry, OL Morgan Bailey, OL Ray Beno, C Freddie Burden, S Jamal Golden, DT Shawn Green, LB Anthony Harrell, OL Errin Joe

DOUBTFUL - None

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - None

Yeah, Paul Johnson, I bet you have nobody banged up in the slightest aside from the guys who'll miss the game.  Not a single tweaked ankle, twinged shoulder, or sore knee.  Somebody is not conforming to the intent of the ACC injury report.  Meantime, that is the worst UVA injury report I've ever seen.

It all just makes a tough game tougher.  Georgia Tech is always a difficult matchup if your defense isn't well-prepared, and last week is proof they can demolish lousy teams - as if last year's game in Atlanta wasn't proof enough.  The road doesn't get any easier after last week, and with the losses piling up it's fair to wonder if this team will find another win all season.

-- UVA run offense vs. GT run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 131 carries, 560 yards, 4.3 ypc, 8 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 32 carries, 233 yards, 7.3 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
176.14 yards/game, 4.03 yards/attempt
82nd of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

GT offense:
124.00 yards/game, 3.98 yards/attempt
57th of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

Conner Davis's presence on the injury report is a disturbing sign for the offense; it was his absence in the first place that triggered a lot of the offensive line troubles.  Cody Wallace is listed as Davis's backup with Eric Tetlow behind Jay Whitmire on the other side, but keep an eye on this.  Wallace was pulled for Tetlow against Pitt, and Tetlow could get the call.  The offense would probably run better if so.

Georgia Tech's defense has been somewhat like a chameleon, matching their play to the level of opposition.  If the opponent is good, they've gashed the Jackets.  If the opponent is lousy, they get shut down.  Duke Johnson and Miami absolutely destroyed them; on the other hand, Virginia Tech's running game didn't exist except for what Logan Thomas did.  Which wasn't much.

The Jackets just don't get into the backfield much.  Nose tackle Adam Gotsis is a nasty customer in this regard with six run-game TFLs this season, but otherwise nobody else has very many, and GT is 110th in the country in TFL.  That said, a nasty defensive tackle was all it took for Pitt to destroy UVA's offense, and three-tech tackle Euclid Cummings is good enough that over-doubling Gotsis will probably cost the Hoos.

GT's linebackers can be tough too; there is no particular holy terror but no weak link either, with all three starters - Brandon Watts, Jabari Hunt-Days, and Quayshawn Nealy - all in the team's top four in tackles.

If Davis does play, he'll probably be limited, so I can't express a lot of hope for the line either way.  UVA isn't going to find itself totally shut down, but shouldn't expect to move the ball as easily as they did in the first half against Duke, either.  The best chance: Watford.  GT has shown a tendency to allow yards by a running quarterback, as both Logan Thomas and BYU's Taysom Hill were able to move the ball this way.  Watford doesn't keep much on the read option, though.  I was brimming with optimism for the run game last week against Duke; their failure to come through combined with injury troubles at guard and another tough DT gives me much less faith, and I can't figure the run game for more than 125 yards or so.

-- UVA pass offense vs. GT pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 148/253, 58.5%; 1,339 yards, 5 TDs, 8 INTs; 5.29 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 31 rec., 265 yards, 2 TDs
Kevin Parks: 25 rec., 270 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
197.6 yards/game, 5.1 yards/attempt
122nd of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

GT defense:
203.7 yards/game, 7.3 yards/attempt
75th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Bad news, everyone.  We're no longer last in the country in passing!  Wonder if it'll matter this week; we've known for a couple weeks now that Jake McGee is banged up even though he didn't show up on the injury report against Duke.  The Maryland game made it clear enough.  Now listed as questionable, McGee's status is firmly up in the air.  I would guess he plays, but we'll see.  No McGee would mean a big, big role for Zach Swanson, and, no disrespect to Swanson, but a pretty big detriment to the passing game.

It won't have much effect on the stat sheet, but Kyle Dockins looks very likely to miss the game given his injury report status.  Dockins isn't targeted much, but his absence means the coaches will have to dig deeper into the underperforming-veterans well and give more playing time to Tim Smith or Darius Jennings.  Any more drops by Jennings and he's going to end up the fanbase's least favorite player; his chronic case of stone hands this season has been one of the year's most frustrating developments.

Defensively, Tech brings a solid pass rush from Adam Gotsis and defensive end Jeremiah Attaochu, though Attaochu's production on the year is decidedly down from what it was.  They present a tough matchup in that their linebackers, Quayshawn Nealy in particular, are good pass defenders.  Nealy plays the weak side, though, so won't likely be matched up with McGee much.  Brandon Watts on the strong side is less skilled in pass defense, so McGee (or Swanson) should be able to find room.  Cornerback Louis Young is the top player in the secondary, and given our receivers' inability to get open, should be a blanket all day.

I think it's fair to upgrade our assessment of our passing game a tick - but only a tick, as Watford is still far too inconsistent and the receivers haven't shown any indication of upgrading their game.  If they didn't do it against Duke, I have no idea when they ever will.  GT isn't overall a great pass-defense team - the rush is OK, and Young is the only playmaker among the starters in the secondary, though backup safety Chris Milton also has two picks.  Logan Thomas, he of the scattershot arm, had a really nice day passing against the Jackets.  Tech might present some matchup problems with linebackers who can defend the pass (Nealy may be a problem in trying to get the ball to Kevin Parks) and a pass-rushing DT, but Watford should continue to nudge his trend upwards, even if only slightly.

-- GT run offense against UVA run defense

Top backs:
David Sims: 84 carries, 409 yards, 4.9 ypc, 6 TDs
Zach Laskey: 45 carries, 261 yards, 5.8 ypc, 4 TDs

GT offense:
304.43 yards/game, 5.27 yards/attempt
19th of 125 (national), 3rd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
151.71 yards/game, 3.98 yards/attempt
56th of 125 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Each week I've sort of taken to naming which of the four sections of the game should provide the decisive factor.  This week it's here, because against GT it's always here.  You know the drill about what they do.

Unfortunately, defending it is going to be a son of a bitch this week.  We don't have our best DT, so we'll have a tough time holding the middle against the fullback dive part of the option.  We're short on options at DE because our run-stopping DE is playing DT (and is a little overmatched there due to size.)  Two very solid run-stopping tacklers at CB are out.  We do have some high-quality linebackers whose strengths just happen to include play diagnosis - but only two.

Adding to the complication is what Jon Tenuta will do.  Remember, Tenuta, despite his past tenure at GT, didn't coach there under the current regime, and so doesn't have any special insight.  If I had a time machine I'd go back and watch old NC State-GT games (despite the crossover, Tenuta did coach against the Jackets twice while at NC State) to see what his philosophy was.  It didn't work out especially well; Tenuta's defense gave up 28 and 35 points, while the Pack split the crossover series in 2010 and 2011.

If he decides to be Mr. Aggressive as usual, that could pay wicked dividends at times and get him burned super-crispy at others.  Blitzing Coley up the middle could help dissuade fullback dives, and sending an OLB or a CB from one side could either flood the area with defenders (good) or leave huge running lanes (bad.)  Tech isn't real big on throwing over the middle, so having Anthony Harris filling the middle while Coley finds a gap to get through could be a helpful strategy, especially since the depth at DT is hurting.

Tenuta's going to have to wizard his way through this one, though, and ultimately, GT has a major upper hand here.  With so many key personnel out, UVA will be depending on a patchwork of less-experienced players.  I think GT will have a ton of success up the middle.  I fully expect to get gashed there.  If the Hoos can force Vad Lee to keep - he's only averaging three yards a carry - they'll be in better shape, but I don't think they can do that consistently.

-- GT pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Vad Lee: 44/99, 44.4%; 846 yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs; 8.55 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
DeAndre Smelter: 14 rec., 211 yards, 2 TDs
Robert Godhigh: 10 rec., 188 yards, 2 TDs

GT offense:
125.6 yards/game, 7.9 yards/attempt
42nd of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
225.9 yards/game, 6.4 yards/attempt
33rd of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

You have to give Paul Johnson this: He's incredibly consistent in his pass-offense playcalling.  In his first four years as GT coach, his teams attempted 165, 168, 168, and 167 passes.  Last year they went all pass-wacky with 194, but this season, Vad Lee is on pace for 170 attempts.  Consistency.

I bring up this factoid just because there's very little to talk about in defending GT's passing game.  All it takes is a solid cornerback and some discipline at free safety.  (That would be really cool if we had Demetrious Nicholson, or even Maurice Canady.)  If you have those two things, GT will not be able to throw the ball against you, because they like to wait until you're overplaying the run.

Then again, we might be forced to overplay the run if the assigned defenders can't stop it.  Plus, this season, GT is actually spreading the ball between WRs a little more than they used to, when in the past they would have one big dude making all the plays and the second WR would just be a very fast, very widely split offensive tackle.  And then some occasional throws to the RBs.  This year, DeAndre Smelter has 14 catches, but Darren Waller has 10.  Both are very, very tall in the usual Paul Johnson mold; Smelter is 6'3" and Waller 6'5".  Ordinarily this would not be a bad game to break in Tim Harris in his first game as a starter, but Harris may be tested a few times, particularly given his inexperience.

Lee, however, has not been the more-accurate passer he was advertised to be, connecting on only 44% of his passes.  And UVA has, with just a few ugly exceptions, defended the pass rather well.  If GT beats us, it won't be through the air.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 3.5
UVA pass offense: 4
UVA run defense: 1.5
UVA pass defense: 6

Average: 3.75

That said, it'd really be fairer if I half-weighted the pass defense and double-weighted the run defense.

-- Outlook

Here's the recipe for beating Georgia Tech's offense.  You need:

-- a really good defensive tackle that can command a double team and even slash into the backfield, to discourage the fullback dive part of the option
-- defensive ends that are both disciplined and able to hold the edge against a blocker
-- a cornerback that sticks like glue
-- a free safety you trust implicitly
-- linebackers who can fill gaps ASAP and move side-to-side with ease.

We have one out of five.  We would have four out of five if not for injuries.  This is not a good omen.

-- Prediction summary

-- The UVA running game fails to top 125 yards.

-- David Watford again tops 6 yards a pass.  Progress.  Baby steps.

-- Both David Sims and Zach Laskey have 100+ yard rushing days.

-- No GT receiver has a catch of 30 yards or more, unless it's mostly YAC.  (This represents success in one realm of the matchup, at least.)

Final score: GT 35, UVA 17

-- Rest of the ACC

Wake Forest @ Miami - 12:00 - A likely rout, but then, that's what I thought Maryland would do to the Deacs last week.

Pittsburgh @ Navy - 1:00 - I labeled Pitt the worst team in the Coastal and they're two wins from eligibility; probably one win after this week.

NC State @ Florida State - 3:30 - The Pack have occasionally had the magic touch against FSU, but not this year.

Clemson @ Maryland - 3:30 - The Terps will have other chances at bowl eligibility, but it won't be this week, and being rolled for the second week in a row - not to mention losing their whole receiving corps to injury - could send them into a death spiral.

Boston College @ North Carolina - 3:30 - I picked BC to go to a bowl this year when nobody else would, and even I didn't figure they'd be the only team in this matchup with a conference win.

Duke @ Virginia Tech - 3:30 - Semi-unstoppable force meets immovable object when Duke has the ball.  Wet noodle meets half-eaten jelly roll otherwise.

Bye: Syracuse, busy licking their GT-induced wounds.