Sunday, November 30, 2008

Blogpoll ballot, Week 14

This is, admittedly, a 5-minute, half-assed effort at a ballot. There are probably beaucoup flaws in this thing. This is because the ballot is posted under the effects of 180 proof rageohol, brought on by spending 17 hours sharing the highway with 50,000 drooling, jibbering, bedwetting short-bus riders to whom somebody gave keys to a car. (More on that later, as well as maybe some actual UVA content too if we're really lucky.) I make no effort, for now, at any kind of justification - I'll do some actual science-ey stuff on Monday and fix it. For now I decided to prioritize "getting a ballot in by the deadline for the preliminary posting" over "shower and sleep." If there's any commentary to throw in for consideration for when I go about putting some actual effort into this one, by all means.

EDIT. OK, all fixed. Things are better now. Couple teams got shifted around. TCU gets to be a top 10 team. I also booted Oregon State in favor of Iowa. Iowa's four losses are by a total of 12 points, and three are to ranked teams. OSU hasn't been competitive in two of their losses, and hey, guess which team beat Penn State and which didn't?

Oh, and yeah. The Oklahoma-or-Texas question? It's interesting to note that if this were the ACC or SEC, Texas would be representing and not Oklahoma. Those two conferences have the BCS tiebreaker too, but there's a clause that says if the top two teams involved are within five spots, then head-to-head rules. It's an interesting idea and probably the right way to go, overall. But in this case, the BCS-sters got it right. Oklahoma's managed to average over 50 points a game this year, and their out-of-conference schedule turned out to be not that slouchy, especially as compared to Texas. In their last four games, they've rolled off 60+ points, and it's not like they're running up the score. In the three games before the Okie State game, they scored 62, 66, and 65, and that's with only one touchdown in the fourth quarter. Not each. Total. And it happened at the very beginning of the Texas Tech fourth quarter on a drive that started at the TT 38. They've dominated. They'll crush Missouri's souls, which will take away one of the biggest arguments Texas had.

RankTeamDelta
1 Alabama --
2 Oklahoma 2
3 Texas 1
4 Florida 1
5 Penn State --
6 Southern Cal --
7 Utah 1
8 Texas Tech 1
9 Ohio State --
10 TCU 5
11 Boise State --
12 Oklahoma State 2
13 Georgia Tech 6
14 Ball State 2
15 Missouri 3
16 Michigan State 3
17 Brigham Young --
18 Georgia 8
19 Cincinnati 3
20 Oregon 3
21 Boston College --
22 Northwestern 2
23 Pittsburgh 3
24 Mississippi 2
25 Iowa 1

Dropped Out: Oregon State (#18), Florida State (#20), Western Michigan (#25).

Friday, November 28, 2008

game preview: Cousin Eddie

TV: ESPN

History against the Hokies: 37-47-5

Last matchup: VT 33, UVA 21, 2007 in Charlottesville

Last week: Clemson 13, UVA 3; VT 14, Duke 3

Line: VT by 8

Virginia Tech season preview here.

VT blogs: Gobbler Country, College Game Balls

This is pretty much it right here. I'm a Virginia fan, a Michigan fan, and a Detroit Lions fan, and if you take a look back at how things have gone for these three teams, you'll get a pretty good idea of how I've enjoyed the 2008 football campaign. This is the last chance for the Hoos. Win, and the season is pretty much redeemed: a victory over those other guys and a possible bowl berth makes the whole season worth something. Lose, and it's a near-complete washout. Which sets us up perfectly for what hopefully will not be this season's last....

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Big plays. You know that NBA 09 commercial with Kevin Garnett, and KG's telling his posse why they can't be his video game posse? "You're garbage, and you're even more garbage than he is." I'm not sure which offense is more garbage than which, but there is no comebackability in either one. We used up all our magic in the UNC game. So the first time someone misses a tackle to break loose a big-gain touchdown, or returns a pick-six or something, that might well be the difference maker in the whole game. We have to be the one coming up with a big play and not be the one missing a tackle on a 70-yard run.

- For the love of God Verica please please please make the right decision with the ball. In Verica's five losses, he has 3 TD's and 11 picks; in his four wins, it's 5 TD's and 4 picks. His completion percentage is 58% in the losses and 72% in the wins. It'll help if the receivers get open, because when they don't, Verica's prone to trying to force it. But the INTs are a huge factor in our losses, and Verica should have it drilled into his head that the defense is playing well, the VT offense is flat terrible, and there's nothing wrong with a punt if the alternative is a pickoff.

- Make the offensive line watch tape of the Maryland game over and over again. Find out whatever it is they did right in that game and do it again. They gained the touch, and then lost it. Fix it, and Cedric Peerman can make the VT nightmares come true.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- Again, the big plays. When the offenses are both terrible, it comes down to who makes 'em. Let Tech make a big play, especially early, and we'll spend the rest of the game trying to come back. Failing to contain Tyrod Taylor would be a very good way to let Tech make that play.

- Fail to match VT's emotion. They're at home with a hostile crowd behind them, and they know that a win puts the Orange Bowl in their grasp. Obviously, they'll be fired up. If the usual road blues set in, the game will be over in the first quarter like the Wake Forest game was.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

Yeeessh. Tech's got the same putrid offense we do, which means there's hope. But when the offenses are equally stinky, look to the defense; and there's little doubt Tech has the better one. And they're at home. Those are the signs that point to bad things. But I've been harping on the big plays, and I think whoever makes the first one wins the game. If we can return a Taylor interception for six, it'll quiet the crowd and give us the emotional advantage. If VT breaks off a big run or blocks a punt, the Hokies will ride the tidal wave to a victory. Either way, first to 20 wins, if either offense can manage as many as three scores.

REST OF THE ACC

Georgia Tech at Georgia, 12:00. Clean, old-fashioned hate.
Miami at NC State, 12:00. Wolfpack looking for bowl eligibility.
Clemson vs. South Carolina, 12:00. Hey, maybe they'll fight again.
Florida State vs. Florida, 3:30. Winner is the Florida state champion.
Maryland at Boston College, 3:30. BC goes to Tampa with a win.
North Carolina at Duke, 3:30. It's not basketball, but there's a bell at stake here.
Wake Forest at Vanderbilt, 7:00. Huh.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

happy thanksgiving


Happy Thanksgiving, readers! Don't forget to roast, stuff, and carve a turkey; and may it be as fat and delicious as Mr. Jefferson's, there. Check out the Gobbler Country Q&A for the inside-est info on our rivals, and check back after Thanksgiving for the lowdown on the game of the year.

Go 'Hoos!

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Q&A with Gobbler Country

Not all Hokies live in a van down by the river. Some of them have computers which they use to write excellent blogs, and I was fortunate to exchange Q's & A's with furrer4heisman, the owner and proprietor of Gobbler Country. Here are the questions I asked and he answered; my answers to his questions will be found there at some point in the near future.

1. I'm ripping you off here, out of curiosity. Who really is the worse OC, Stinespring or Groh?

The numbers say Stiney. Groh hasn't been ranked in the 100s for three consecutive years. (Editor's note: Barring an offensive explosion on Saturday, this will sadly cease to be true very shortly.) Stiney would have been fired anywhere else. Beamer is just very loyal to his assistants. And it's not just the numbers. It's our inability to have a comprehensive gameplan for the opponent or to make adjustments during the game. Stiney is the worst at making adjustments I've ever seen.

2. And who do VT fans prefer at quarterback? Glennon or Taylor? (My suspicion is Taylor.)

[Ed McMahon] You are correct, sir.[/Ed McMahon] In a perfect world, Tyrod would at least be a competent passer and we wouldn't have a quarterback controversy. Plus, since the O-line can't pass protect, we need Tyrod back there so he can run for his life. Glennon, meanwhile, prefers to hold on to the ball too long and take sacks. Glennon's a good kid and was one of the primary reasons we won the ACC last year. However, circumstances beyond his control have made Tyrod the guy we need at quarterback.

3. How does Beamer keep Bud Foster in town? Seems like he's always coming up in coaching searches. Think he stays this year, or is Beamer potentially looking to replace both coordinators? (Assuming Stinespring is also done.)

Foster is very loyal to Blacksburg and Virginia Tech. He likes it here and is paid well for an assistant. Unless he gets a Muschamp-type deal, I think he'll be gone at the end of the year. Before, he always said he wouldn't go anywhere unless it was a decent BCS conference job. I think he'll realize he has to change his requirements in order to get his chance. As for Stiney, I hope he's gone at the end of the year. If Bud leaves and Stiney stays it'll be like the Zombie Apocalypse only worse. I'm sure all the UVa fans will enjoy lurking on TSL if that happens.

4. What's to stop this game from ending up 3-0? What has to go right for VT's offense and/or wrong for VT's defense to make sure that this isn't a complete punt-fest?

For Tech, it's the same thing that has to go right every game on offense. We need to establish the run and keep running until you prove you can stop it. Defensively, if someone like Ogletree is allowed to roam open down the middle of the field, we're in trouble. We have a tendency to give up one or two big plays a game. I think we'll be able to have success against the run on Saturday. The trick will be controlling the playmakers from breaking the big one.

5. Without a doubt, if I could remove one Hokie from the roster for Saturday's game, it'd be Macho Harris. Who from the UVA roster would you keep off the field if you could?

I'd get rid of Peerman. Without Simpson available, you guys wouldn't be able to move the ball. As Peerman goes, so goes your offense.

6. I've always wondered. Do Hokies feel dirty eating the Thanksgiving turkey?

Well, we sell smoked turkey legs in the Lane Stadium, so no, we are perfectly comfortable eating turkey on Thanksgiving. I plan on eating a lot of it along with candied yams and pe-can pie. This is by far my favorite holiday and a lot of it has to do with the fact the rivalry is played two days later.

------------------------------------------------
I couldn't agree more with the last sentence. It's not actually that long ago that the game wasn't regularly played Thanksgiving weekend - as recently as 1999 it was played in October(!), but now that Tech is in the ACC, the game seems to have found a more or less permanent home, right where it belongs.

season preview: Miami

So much for having these done by Thanksgiving. That's two days away and there's still four more to go. Maybe two weeks? Ish?

And speaking of Thanksgiving: we interrupt for a programming message. Expect only two posts between now and Monday evening: the Cletus game preview at some unknown time on Friday, and Blogpoll ballot Sunday night. I may squeeze in a Syracuse game preview on Friday as well, but that's not pre-written like the football one is, so "maybe" is the operative word. Just in case I don't, here's the short version: they'll slaughter us. Now: Miami Hurricanes basketball.

(Oh by the way: Sylven Landesberg is 2-for-2 with rookie of the week honors. His UVA career is off to a roaring start. Now, Miami for real.)

Media prediction: 4th

ACC schedule:

Twice: Boston College, Florida State, Maryland, North Carolina, NC State
Once: Clemson (H), Duke (A), Georgia Tech (A), Virginia (A), Virginia Tech (H), Wake Forest (H)

2007 All-ACC:

First team: G Jack McClinton
Second team: None
Third team: None
Freshman: None
Defensive: None
HM: None

(italics: returning)

Projected starters:

PG: Eddie Rios (So.)
SG: Jack McClinton (Sr.)
G: James Dews (Jr.)
F: Cyrus McGowan (Jr.)
F: Dwayne Collins (Jr.)

Bench:

F Jimmy Graham (Sr.)
G Lance Hurdle (Sr.)
F DeQuan Jones (Fr.)
F Brian Asbury (Sr.)

Coach: Frank Haith (5th year)

There is a little bit of a now-or-never aspect to this Miami team. With four seniors in the rotation, particularly all-ACC standout SG Jack McClinton, it's one of the most experienced rosters in the conference.

McClinton has this nasty good aim from downtown, hitting on nearly 43%, and he's a stone-cold lock at the free throw line - he missed just ten all of last season. He's not alone either. Miami is a ridiculously good free-throw shooting team, with four players that hit better than 80% from the line. That's part of the reason why this is such a now-or-never year for the Canes - three of those players are seniors, the lone exception being James Dews. Dews and McClinton are joined in the starting backcourt by sophomore Eddie Rios - Coach Frank Haith likes a three-guard starting lineup, and Rios has gotten the nod so far this year over senior Lance Hurdle.

Hurdle started twenty games last year, and fellow senior Brian Asbury started sixteen. Miami has the tremendous luxury this season of being able to bring both these players off the bench. There's very little, if any, drop-off there from the starting lineup, and Asbury in particular is a weapon. He adds a little bit of everything to the stat sheet - points, rebounds, steals - and does it all very well, and you can't foul him because he's one of those 80% free throw shooters - .845, to be precise.

The only hole in the lineup is leading rebounder Anthony King, who graduated. He had plenty of help from Dwayne Collins in the frontcourt last year, though, and the 'Canes add Cyrus McGowan as a transfer from Arkansas. Collins, McGowan, and senior Jimmy Graham - a big body off the bench at 250+ pounds - will ensure there's no hangover from the loss of King.

Miami's experience is frankly, scary. Not many teams can bring a bench like they have. The starters, especially McClinton, are plenty good in their own right, but Miami is going to win games this season when the starters rotate out and they can match their bench against yours. They'll win that matchup most days. Last year, Miami went to the NCAA's as a 7 seed and nearly missed out on upsetting #2 seeded Texas in the second round. Expect a higher seed this year - a 7th seed would be a disappointment and a waste of all that senior leadership.

Monday, November 24, 2008

game preview: Liberty

Virginia Cavaliers (3-0, 0-0) vs. Liberty Flames (1-1, 0-1)

Possible starters:

UVA:

G: Calvin Baker (5.3 ppg, 3 apg, 2 rpg)
G: Sylven Landesberg (23.7 ppg, 2.7 apg, 5.3 rpg)
G: Mustapha Farrakhan (0.7 ppg, 0 apg, 0.3 rpg)
F: Mamadi Diane (10 ppg, 1 apg, 5 rpg)
F: Mike Scott (13.7 ppg, 0.7 apg, 9.7 rpg)

Liberty:

G: Anthony Smith (19 ppg, 1.5 apg, 6.5 rpg)
G: Kyle Ohman (10 ppg, 2 apg, 6.5 rpg)
G: Brolin Floyd (10 ppg, 1.5 apg, 5 rpg)
G: Jesse Sanders (4.5 ppg, 2.5 apg, 5.5 rpg)
G: Seth Curry (20.5 ppg, 3 apg, 5.5 rpg)

Liberty is nuts, yo. I'm not kidding - that's a five-guard starting lineup they've deployed in their two games so far this year. They got guards and they want to use them. The tallest player there is freshman Brolin Floyd, at 6'6". When you have nobody bigger than 220 pounds on the roster, you don't try and beat teams in the post.

Thus, my scientific wild-ass guess about our own starting lineup is that Leitao will go with something pretty similar to what he used against VMI. Liberty does have a 6'11" player of their own who comes off the bench - that'd be freshman forward Carter McMasters - so it's not likely Soroye will remain glued to his own. When McMasters steps to the scorer's table, so will Soroye. But Leitao's always favored his guards and will probably be happy to try and beat Liberty at this game, and use Mike Scott when muscle is needed.

Anyway, I've written twice now about how the opponent ought to be an easy one that we should destroy if we are any good of a team at all. And if we had destroyed them, I'd say the same here. The Flames got blown off the floor in their last game by UNC-Asheville, which just recently got blown off the floor by Campbell. To be fair, UNC-A. earned an NIT bid last year, but still. What's holding me back from bravado, we'll-kill-'em assertions is the combined four points of victory margin against South Florida and Radford. Really, I'm hoping to get through the first half of the season without some kind of headline-making upset, and teams with wacky five-guard starting lineups are just the kind to do it.

weekend review

In which I go back over the weekend and cover the news I ignored in favor of sitting on my butt and watching football. Today we'll just go sport by sport.

Starting with football. And it was not a good weekend in that department in this household. I forget exactly which touchdown it was that caused me to turn the Michigan game off, but it was just before the first UVA touchdown of the game. OH WAIT THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN because the referees like to rewrite the definition of penalties on the fly. Apparently the new definition of offensive pass interference is the same as the old AT&T slogan: "Reach out and touch someone."

Still, the refs are just a scapegoat. A convenient (and fun) scapegoat, but just a scapegoat. You don't win football games when your turnover margin is -3 and you can't manage to even average 2.5 yards per carry. The defense was splendid. The longest Clemson scoring drive was 30 yards, and they all started in our territory. Pity the offense has regressed all the way back to the Duke game. It is not a sign of good coaching on the offensive side of the ball that the longer the coaches have to think about the game plan, the worse the team performs.

So now we have one last chance. I wish Cousin Eddie was ranked this week so that the ACC gods would smite them, but the most they could muster was two measly votes in the coaches' poll. This is why rivalry games belong at the end of the season. No matter how badly your year has gone, you have one last shot at redemption. I feel bad for, say, Illinois fans, who get their biggest rivalry out of the way early and then spend the rest of the year trying to work up hatred for schools that view them as little more than a bump in the road. And this year, more so with the redemption thing than most. Win, and we can cheer on Al Groh for rescuing a season that seemed wasted, by squeaking out a bowl trip and a win over Tech, and we can screw them out of the ACCCG besides. Lose, and the whole season is a loss.

So. Now that you're all worked up to crush a Chokie, basketball! It's kind of exciting that VT lost to a rather lowly Big East team in Seton Hall (at least, they were pretty weak last year) but we're headed for that real soon ourselves if we don't shape up. Seriously, how much are we going to rely on a true freshman to bail us out of close games against crummy teams? Don't get me wrong. Landesberg is a damn hoss. If we get four years from this kid we'll be in awesome shape. But we're going to have plenty of struggles come the new year and the ACC season; I'd sure like to see an easy one against an opponent that is supposed to be an easy one. I predict ugliness and pain when ACC teams start showing up at JPJA unless we start shooting somewhere north of .400.

Soccer. A quick look at our opponent for tomorrow night's tournament game, UConn. Connecticut is a low-scoring team even by the low-scoring standards of soccer. Only once did they manage more than two goals in a game: a 4-0 win over St. Peter's. We have eight such games, for comparison's sake. A win gives us either a trip to Omaha to face Creighton, or, less likely, a home game against Tulsa.

Lacrosse - there is good and bad news here. The good news is that the early signing period netted nine players who will be 'Hoos next fall. The prize of the class is Connor English, a high-school All-American. That's not saying quite as much when you realize there are like 450 All-Americans, but English, obviously, is a junior, restoring the impressiveness to the feat. The other "name" in the class: Long. The third Long son, Howie, signed his letter too. His older brother Kyle is a baseball player at FSU, and you might have heard of Chris, the eldest. Quite an athletic family; another generation like that and they'll be taking on the Rolles.

The bad news is the passing of former laxer and team captain Will Barrow. Barrow had a bright lacrosse future ahead of him in MLL, and was still enrolled in school finishing his degree.

Now, back to football. There isn't much left of the high school season; in fact, Dominique Wallace very nearly saw his end Friday. But Chancellor rallied behind Wallace's four touchdowns and oh yeah, 215 yards. Perry Jones matched that total in Oscar Smith's 28-21 win over Ocean Lakes. Tucker Windle's team is also still alive in the North Carolina playoffs.

Recruiting update. It's that time of year where this stuff starts to get more and more interesting; hopefully though, Groh and staff won't have all the time in the world for recruiting after Saturday quite yet. Updates to the board, which is here, are as follows:

- DE Bernardo Nunez cut his list to five; board list is cut accordingly. He is bumped up to "Good" from "Fair" based on the comments in that article about two of his finalists being too far away, but the rest of the article kind of gives off a Maryland vibe.

- OT Oday Aboushi cut his list to three, but really two, based on the last quote in this pay article. He'll take visits to UVA, BC, and Maryland, but Maryland is running a clear third. EDIT: Never mind. BC commit. Will be removed from the board next update.

- Removed LB Jelani Jenkins, which should have been done a while ago.

Last feature, as always, is a quick spin around the ACC.....

Boston College won a squeaker against Wake, and Eagle in Atlanta fears for his life expectancy after that one.

Georgia Tech helped us out mightily by beating Miami, only thanks to our offense, they actually helped out the other Tech instead. The LegacyX4's text inbox filled up quick thanks to Gobber Country's furrer4heisman, who should probably drunk-post more.

UNC got spanked, spanky-style, by NC State. It's hard to feel too bad for Tareye or Buckheel considering his other team did pretty OK (against my other team dammit) but if UNC wanted to put on a How To Remain A Basketball School clinic, ToB thinks they did pretty well.

Last but not least, I'd be a bad, bad blogger if I didn't give you this: the master list of CHokie jokes. Posted at TheSabre by Guy Incognito.

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Blogpoll ballot, Week 13

I knew this was going to happen. Texas Tech took a big shit all over themselves at Oklahoma and left us with a mess. Never fear, I have a solution, and it's reflected in the ballot, which I think is one of my better efforts. Ballot first, comments after.

RankTeamDelta
1Alabama 1
2Texas 1
3Florida 3
4Oklahoma --
5Penn State 3
6Southern Cal 1
7Texas Tech 6
8Utah 1
9Ohio State 1
10Georgia 7
11Boise State 1
12Missouri 1
13Michigan State 1
14Oklahoma State 5
15TCU --
16Ball State 3
17Brigham Young 1
18Oregon State --
19Georgia Tech 7
20Florida State 5
21Boston College 5
22Cincinnati 3
23Oregon 3
24Northwestern 2
25Western Michigan 2

Dropped Out: Miami (Florida) (#21), Maryland (#22), Central Michigan (#24).

There is much turmoil in the rankings despite not a whole lot of crazy shocking things happening this weekend. What gives?

Well, faced with the ridiculosity that is the Big 12 South, and a whole bunch of other pretty darn good one-loss teams as well, I tried to compare them the old way and my head went all 'splody. So I came up with a new method of ranking each team's games from 1 to 10/11/12 and then ranking each team's best win against the others' best wins, second-best wins against the others' second best wins, etc. etc. etc.

I discovered a couple things:

- Texas turns out to bethe best of the bunch, and it's not even actually that close. Between them, OU, and TT, for example, they were the only one to get their win away from home. It helps that they're the only ones of the three to have played Missouri. Also, for example, their third-best win is against a perfectly decent Oklahoma State team; USC's is against semi-crappy Cal.

- Texas Tech is actually something of a fraud. They're still a damn good team, certainly good enough for the BCS. They won't go, but they'll beat hell out of whoever they face in the Cotton Bowl. But as far as national title contenders go, they don't belong. OU just happened to be the one to expose this, but their schedule doesn't stack up to USC or Florida, let alone their Big 12 brethren.

This experiment worked out so well that I did it twice more. I think there's a pretty clear and obvious difference between the teams 1-8, 9-17, and 18-25, so it worked out to three nice little blocks. I only shifted a couple of teams from where the algorithm-esque procedure sorted them - TCU was too high, and Georgia Tech needs to be ahead of FSU. Otherwise, things fell into place pretty well. However, this is why you see the occasional wacky move, like, say, Georgia rocketing up 7 spots after a bye week, or Cincy dropping 3 after a win over a not-terrible Pittsburgh. It's not so much what happened this week, it's just that my perception of these teams has been reset somewhat, perhaps a little closer to the norm. I had all kinds of revelations as I was doing this. I learned things like, "whoa, Oregon's marquee win is a 10-points squeaker over Arizona." Anyway, it's a better ballot than before, although I do reserve the right to make one change: if UConn sufficiently impresses against USF tonight, they'll probably take WMU's spot at 25.

Friday, November 21, 2008

game preview: Clemson

TV: Raycom

History against the Tigers: 8-35-1

Last matchup: UVA 30, Clemson 10 in Charlottesville, 2004

Last week: UVA bye, Clemson beat Duke 31-7

Line: Clemson by 2.5

Clemson season preview here.

Clemson blogs: Block-C, Mickey Plyler's Blog

Injury report:

OUT: LB Aaron Clark, LB Jared Detrick, LB Cam Johnson, DE Zane Parr, RB Mikell Simpson

DOUBTFUL: CB Mike Parker

QUESTIONABLE: None

PROBABLE: LB Darren Childs, OT Eugene Monroe, S Corey Mosley, WR Kevin Ogletree, TE Colter Phillips, K Robert Randolph, LB Clint Sintim

Third time's the charm right? Right? For two games now, we've been looking to get bowl-eligible, and no dice. Now we have a bye week, which is supposed to be a good thing; an opponent in turmoil and already ensconced in a coaching search, which is supposed to be a good thing; and a home game, which is supposed to be a good thing. Never underestimate our ability to screw up a good thing.

We even have something to play for, still, and not just the Humanitarian Bowl. Georgia Tech kept us alive by clocking Miami. If there's one thing you can count on this year it's that being the ranked team is bad news. Now the Coastal picture looks like this. (Yes, it was put together by Cousin Eddie, thus, we're "France." Et je m'appèlle Napoleon.) What it boils down to is this: if we win out, and UNC wins out, yay. Otherwise, boo. Because I don't think NC State will beat Miami.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Whatever it is we usually do during bye weeks, don't do it. There seems to be an inversely proportional relationship between our success and the amount of time we have to prepare. I'm just praying the coaching staff has us on the right track this time, but give Mikey Groh too long to write a play script and who knows what awful things will happen. Dollars to donuts we see that godawful play-action-tight-end-screen during the first two offensive series.

- Spiller Spiller Spiller Spiller Spiller. Clemson's offense revolves around him. It's not like they don't have other weapons, but Spiller is their favorite. Shutting him down doesn't guarantee a win, but not shutting him down pretty much guarantees a loss.

- Turnovers. Yeah, yeah. A John Madden key to the game. It's why Clemson is so bloody mediocre though. Their defense: not that bad. Their offense: also not that bad, by ACC standards. Truth be told, they could be one of the myriad 7-3 teams in the conference, but they turn the ball over more than twice a game. So go out there and get some fumbles.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- If the defensive line doesn't mash up Clemson's mediocre-at-best O-line, their skill players are gonna waltz all over us. Remember before the season how everyone was all like, Clemson's gonna be sweet if their O-line doesn't suck? Well, their O-line kinda sucks, but our D-line is prone to having poor games. Good defenses have ground Clemson's attack to a halt by getting in the backfield, but they still know a thing or two about moving the ball. See Spiller's absurd yards-per-carry if you don't believe me.

- Kicking game. It's part of the college game, but I hate not having a dependable kicker. Reyering and Randolph aren't exactly awful, but if we're down 24-23 with two seconds left and a 32-yard field goal attempt coming up, are you gonna feel really awesome about our chances right then?

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

I don't know. I will not be watching. The game shares a time slot with Michigan-Ohio State. That game is more likely to be a slaughter than anything, so the second half, or even the last three quarters, are not at all out of the question. The one and only football game that I purposely skipped during my four years in Charlottesville was a Georgia Tech game (not the hook-and-ladder one) that happened to fall at the same time as a Michigan-OSU game. If my fears come true, I'll more than likely try and forget them by watching our game instead. If it's a close game in Columbus, I'll rely on my trusty TiVo and watch the game afterwards.

This is a game we can win, which should worry us. But those feelings of doubt are starting to creep back into the fanbase, which means we're ripe for a win. So who knows. I throw my hands in the air any more at trying to predict how any game involving an ACC Coastal team will go. Go Hoos, is all I know right know, and also: Go Blue.

REST OF THE ACC:

Georgia Tech 41, Miami 23 on Thursday. Niiiiiiiiiice.
NC State @ North Carolina, 12:00. C'moooooooonnnn Heels.
Boston College @ Wake Forest, 3:30. Elimination game.
Duke @ Virginia Tech, 5:30. It doesn't matter, but for the hell of it, go Duke.
Florida State @ Maryland, 7:45. Maryland clinches with a win and a Deacons' win.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

game preview: Radford

Virginia Cavaliers (2-0, 0-0) vs. Radford Highlanders (2-0, 0-0)

Possible starters:

UVA:

PG: Calvin Baker (3.5 ppg, 4.5 apg, 3 rpg)
SG: Sylven Landesberg (24.5 ppg, 4 apg, 6 rpg)
SF: Mamadi Diane (13.5 ppg, 1 apg, 5 rpg)
PF: Mike Scott (18 ppg, 0.5 apg, 12 rpg)
C: Tunji Soroye (3 ppg, 0 apg, 6 rpg)

RU:

G: Kenny Thomas (17 ppg, 1.5 apg, 2 rpg)
G: Amir Johnson (8.5 ppg, 4.5 apg, 2 rpg)
G: Martell McDuffy (11 ppg, 3 apg, 3 rpg)
F: Joey Lynch-Flohr (11.5 ppg, 3 apg, 6.5 rpg)
C: Artsiom Parakhouski (15 ppg, 1 apg, 5 rpg)

Hard to get a bead on Radford this year - they're 2-0, but that comes from playing opponents from D-II and D-III. Yes, D-III. For what it's worth, they were terrible last year, coming in second-to-last in the Big South and getting destroyed by good teams, and even not-so-good ones, as Michigan beat them by 27 to open the season. Last year, though, they didn't have Artsiom Parakhouski, the big 6'11" transfer from Southern Idaho. The big Belarussian has led the Highlanders' post offense, and solid defense from Tunji Soroye will be needed. Maybe tonight we also see Brandenburg? I've been hoping for that for a couple games now, but Radford is the first opponent with a player to match the height of our own tallest players.

It might be telling that Radford kept their starters in for most of their first game, despite that game being against Division II Brevard College. The bench, in what little time they got, shot 3-for-11 and followed that up with 9-for-22 against Bridgewater, so I think we can expect to see a lot of the starting lineup tonight.

Hard to say if that will go for us too, of course. Meyinsse and Farrakhan got the starts against USF and played scrub minutes; Landesberg came off the bench and played 31. Makes you wonder if Leitao's pulling his starters out of a hat or what. Look for that kind of workload on Landesberg the rest of the season though.

I'm not really scared of Radford. I'm more scared of us. We always make it harder on ourselves than it should be. Jeff Jones, for example, has picked up where he left off last year with his spotty shooting and was 1-for-8 against USF; 1-for-5 from 3. If he makes just one or two more of those shots, the game isn't a nailbiter. But, it was his hot hand that shot down Arizona last year. Radford really shouldn't present too much trouble, but we seem like a prime candidate for an upset one of these days, and I'm not gonna rest too easy going into these warm-up games.

two roundtables for the price of one

We have double the roundtable action today. First, the ACC roundtable roundup; then, the Blogpoll roundtable is hosted over at College Game Balls, and I'm going to take some kind of a stab at answering those questions.

But first first, one - no, two - quick observations on last nights b-ball game against USF, which came to mind as the stattracker flashed the score up on the screen.

- One, the results of one game against a high-scoring, Roadrunner-style VMI squad is a bit premature for calling a true freshman the best player on your team. Two games in, and you start to see it: Sylven Landesberg is the best player on the team. Pretty soon I won't even have to keep looking it up to make sure he's the 'Berg with the E and not the U.

- Two, I don't think there's any more to read into that game last night other than strictly what it was: two bottom-feeders of pretty good conferences duking it out and trying not to make the last mistake. USF made the last mistake by clanking a pair of shots that could have won it. I was hoping for a better showing, to inform us that we have a basketball team capable of finishing outside the ACC cellar, but unless USF is deceptively good much the same way Arizona was deceptively bad last year, we didn't see it.

Oh, and hey: Maui Invitational - we're going again. Chaminade must love it every time we show up.

Now: ACC roundtable. Roundup time. A quick primer: the ACC Roundtable is comprised of (besides myself) BC Interruption, Block-C, The LegacyX4, Tar Heel Mania, College Game Balls, and Gobbler Country. For those keeping score at home, that's half the ACC represented, and VT twice.

First question:

1. Take a look into your team’s past, as far back as you like. If you could pick one game and change its outcome, which would you choose and why?

Unsurprisingly, Gobbler Country goes straight for the jugular to try and get that national title that the Hokies have just missed out on. College Game Balls wants the national title too, but a different one: last year's, and he figures if Matt Ryan doesn't connect on that prayer in the rain, VT would have marched on to beat Ohio State for it. Plech, Virginia Tech and Ohio State in the title game? You know, I don't necessarily disagree that the Hokies would have won. All I'm saying is: Biggest Meteor Game Ever.

But as GC noted, the national title changes everything. Block-C would agree, and might have some words of caution in his answer: he wants Clemson's championship erased from the books. Rather than defeating Nebraska in the 1982 Orange Bowl for that title, a loss is what he's looking for. This may seem surprising, but Block-C is a blog that, as a daily feature, mocks the most psycho and/or inane message board post that he can find that day, so a few less psychotic Clemson fans with absurd expectations would probably make his existence that much more pleasant.

2. What non-ACC program most resembles yours?

Clemson = Auburn. This is actually something of a continuation of the same theme as before, and impressively, doesn't even mention "orange" or "Tigers."

Boston College = TCU. The Frogs don't have any Miracle in Miami, but they do have LT.

Again, the VT blogs disagree. Gobbler Country goes with Oregon, while CGB takes Texas Tech. Both are pretty convincing, but if I had to choose (which nobody is forcing me to do but I will anyway) it'd be Oregon. It's the uniforms, man. Oregon has decent colors and manages to make the most hideous rags out of them. VT just has hideous colors. If they played in a bowl game it'd have to be sponsored by Visine.

The LegacyX4 takes the kid-in-the-candy-store route and names no fewer than seven teams. He even manages to drag Tulane into this.

3. Which do you prefer? The ACC of 2008: not too well respected around the nation, but a conference in which almost any team has a shot at the conference title? Or the ACC of 1998: getting plenty of respect from football pundits as a good conference, but dominated by one hegemonic superpower that we all hate?

The votes are in, we have a winner, and it's unanimous: the bloggers like parity. Gives us something to write about, and something more interesting to bitch about than "goddammit FSU won again."

4. Hey, it's basketball season! What are your expectations for your team? What kind of season would make you happy?

It's top-four hopes for Clemson and VT this year. Just about everybody concedes that UNC and Duke will take the top two spots, but these blogs are looking for their teams to fill the next two, and win a game or two in the NCAAs besides. Of course, this being the ACC, everyone expects to get at least to the NIT - and of course, us being fans, everyone's expectations, let alone hopes, exceeded the media predictions.

Switching gears now, and moving on to the Blogpoll Roundtable......

1. By now everyone has heard that if there is a three way tie in the Big 12 South the highest ranked team in the BCS will play in the Big 12 Championship Game. That means the humans (66% of the BCS Poll) will determine the Big 12 South representative. Let’s assume Oklahoma sinks the pirate ship at home next week. Try to sway the pollsters by arguing which team you think should face off against the Big 12 North.

Assuming all else is equal, then the pollsters should pick whichever team was closest to winning the game that they lost. That'll be Texas, unless Tech's loss to Oklahoma is a real classic and a squeaker.

ESPN is aggressively bidding on the rights to the BCS when Fox’s contract expires after the 2009 season. My half baked theory is if they do win the rights they will push for a +1 system. Lucrative television deals have landed ESPN in bed with each of the BCS conferences. The revenue a playoff would generate could be a huge motivator for the four letter to be the common denominator and unifier among the conferences that finally helps them all to see the light of why a playoff would be good for college football. Help expand upon or debunk this theory.

One thing I do feel pretty sure about saying: all these snarky columnists going "I want chaos in the BCS!" will suddenly find something else to write about. As this blog is squarely in the Anti-Playoff camp, this is a welcome development. However, I worry about something else entirely. Congress, having already fixed the economy, solved world hunger, beaten the terrorists, and secured the borders, is now sticking their stupid meddlesome noses into college football. And we all know that the world's most powerful football fan favors a playoff and would probably stick his stupid meddlesome nose into college football, just because he can. My greatest fear in this department is that nothing will matter because Hurricane Congress will blow through and leave us with a half-assed playoff. Eight teams, not because it makes sense, or because that's what America wants, or because it would be the best system for choosing a champion, no, just because the President wants to. I don't like this.

3. Rivalry week is around the corner. How do you think your team will fare? Feel free to talk a little or a lot of trash.

Rivalry week for me is two for the price of one. This week is Michigan-Ohio State, and no, my team will not do well. Losing to a team with drug paraphernelia on their helmets is bad enough. Losing to a team with a giant turd-nugget for a mascot is worse. The consolation is that win or lose, the game is in Columbus, and we're not the ones that have to remain in that soybean-covered shithole they call Ohio after the game.

There are two things I can't figure out about Buckeye fans. One, why they insist on saying "The" Ohio State University. Most of us can figure out the difference between the Ohio state university in Columbus, and the rest of them. Maybe they're insecure that Kent State will become the real Ohio state university? Second, I know that basic spelling is occasionally a challenge, but why they insist on spelling out O-U-A-O is beyond me.

After Michigan's gift of creepy gold pants to the Buckeyes, it's UVA at VT, and I have a lot more confidence about this game. Nobody in Charlottesville would have guessed that the worst offense in the Commonwealth would actually be in Blacksburg, but Bryan Stinespring is apparently dumber than Mike Groh - who knew? (Oh wait - it's Tech. Of course Tech is dumber.) Lame Stadium is a tough place to win though, and we haven't had any success there since I showed up on Grounds as a bright-eyed, bushy-tailed first year. We all know: we suck on the road. Still: VT has the most putrid offense (matches their uniforms) of any VT team in a long time. So there's hope.

And now for a little fun… Assemble your dream announcing team. Pick a play-by-play announcer, color commentator, sideline reporter and for the hell of it celebrity guest that drops on by.

Warning to the Virginia faithful: this answer is all Michigan here. A good announcer - a really good announcer, one who truly enhances the whole game experience - is so hard to come by, and the best ones are the ones you grew up with. And we'll start with Bob Ufer. God bless his cotton-pickin' maize-and-blue heart, if you've never heard this guy call a football game, well, I don't blame you because his heyday was the '70s, and I never did either. He died before I was born, but I grew up hearing about this guy who loved Meeechigan football down to his core and brought every ounce of that to the booth. And dammit, he did homerism right. Somehow, he made it work. The horn from General Patton's jeep announced every Michigan score. What I wouldn't give to hear Ufer call a Michigan game today, without having to rely on YouTube for the highlights. Color commentating would be Jim Brandstatter, who followed Ufer and who I actually grew up listening to. We'll put Chris Spielman on the sideline. Spielman has no peer on ESPN when it comes to analysis, so he brings a lot to the table in that department, which is nice, but I'd also like him to have to spend the game with Ufer's voice blaring in his ear. And the celebrity guest? Bo, of course.

Now, assuming Michigan isn't playing in this particular game, then I'll go the easy route and say Keith Jackson. Rose Bowls just aren't the same without Jackson in the booth, and old ESPN Classic highlights are that much cooler with his voice involved.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

season preview: Maryland


ACC Roundtable roundup coming tomorrow. Waiting for one more response, but I'll post it tomorrow either way. So I apologize - today was going to be roundup day, instead you get an ugly flasher turtle because it's Maryland's turn in the hopper.

Media prediction: 7th

ACC schedule:

Twice: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia
Once: Boston College (H), Clemson (A), Florida State (A), NC State (A), Virginia Tech (H), Wake Forest (H)

2007 All-ACC:

First team: None
Second team: G Greivis Vasquez, F James Gist
Third team: None
Freshman: None
Defensive: F James Gist
HM: None

(italics: returning)

Projected starters:

PG: Greivis Vasquez (Jr.)
SG: Eric Hayes (Jr.)
SF: Cliff Tucker (So.)
PF: Landon Milbourne (Jr.)
C: Braxton Dupree (So.)

Bench:

G Sean Mosley (Fr.)
G Adrian Bowie (So.)
F Cliff Tucker (So.)
F Jin Soo Kim (Fr.)
F Dave Neal (Sr.)

(italics: returning starter)

Coach: Gary Williams (20th year)

It's all about the perimeter in College Park. Guards guards guards. Last year, Maryland had a pair of pretty dominant forwards in Bambale Osby and James Gist, and with a sophomore manning the point, Osby and Gist provided the leadership, the defense, and a huge chunk of the scoring. But now they're gone, and that sophomore is a junior, a fiery Venezuelan by the name of Greivis Vasquez (you might have heard of him, given his second team all-conference status), and the leadership burden is now on his shoulders.

Vasquez has played alongside Eric Hayes for two years now, and the combination is going to be a dangerous one. These guys have grown up together with a combined 97 starts over the past two seasons, and the chances are good that one or the other (usually Vasquez) will lead Maryland in scoring on any given night.

If not, it'll be Landon Milbourne, who's equally deadly as Hayes (if not quite as prolific) from 3-point land. Milbourne, like the other two, is a junior, but unlike the other two, waited until last year for his breakout party. He caught up fast, though. These are the three names you'll hear called far more than any other during a Maryland game. Cliff Tucker is another guardish forward that rounds out the Terrapins' perimeter-heavy starting lineup.

Despite these three, Maryland is picked only 7th in the conference. Part of that is because this is the friggin' ACC - the Memphis Grizzlies would probably be picked 4th. The rest of that is because of the squishy middle that Maryland offers. With Gist and Osby gone, the interior is a huge, looming question mark. They could have really used 6'10" Augustus Gilchrist, but too bad, so sad, he's gone to South Florida. That leaves Braxton Dupree to man the middle - so far this season, though, he's getting outrebounded by the point guard. Dupree and Dave Neal represent Maryland's only real bulk in the middle. Neither is going to be called on to score, but if Maryland's going to make any noise at all in the ACC, they're going to have to play far bigger roles than they're used to, especially on their own end of the court.

Maryland's extremely iffy frontcourt is going to keep them from serious ACC title contention. But their excellent backcourt (including Tucker and Milbourne, who are nominally forwards but not low-post bangers) makes them capable of being a nasty surprise to someone who's got real championship aspirations. Their schedule might keep them from having as successful a regular season as they might like - they get three of the top four media picks twice. But a strong ACC tournament run is a real possibility, and that could be enough to earn them a middle-to-lowish seed in the NCAAs. For sure, they won't drop down below the NIT.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

game preview: South Florida

Virginia Cavaliers (1-0, 0-0) vs. South Florida Bulls (1-0, 0-0)

Possible starting lineups:

UVA;

PG: Calvin Baker (4 ppg, 7 apg, 5 rpg)
SG: Sylven Landesburg (28 ppg, 8 apg, 8 rpg)
SF: Mamadi Diane (14 ppg, 1 apg, 7 rpg)
PF: Mike Scott (26 ppg, 0 apg, 18 rpg)
C: Tunji Soroye (0 ppg, 0 apg, 0 rpg)

USF:

G: Jesus Verdejo (18 ppg, 1 apg, 3 rpg)
G: Dominique Jones (13 ppg, 6 apg, 3 rpg)
G: Chris Howard (4 ppg, 2 apg, 1 rpg)
F: Mobolaji Ajayi (4 ppg, 1 apg, 11 rpg)
F: Eladio Espinosa (4 ppg, 1 apg, 5 rpg)

It should be noted that these starting lineups are mainly an educated guess on my part. OK. Disclaimers aside, the South Florida Bulls come to town tomorrow evening. East is well above South on the Big Directional Conference totem pole, but USF is a fish out of water here. They joined this conference for the BCS football, not to compete with the UConns and Villanovas and Georgetowns on the hardwood. They actually won something of a mythical Florida championship last year, knocking off all the (football) DI-A teams except Miami who they didn't play, and yes, that includes ACC member FSU.

This did have a chance to be an interesting game, as we are within a month of finally seeing ex-Hokie, ex-Terp Augustus Gilchrist on a college court. Won't be eligible in time for Wednesday, though.

So, the game? USF beat SMU the other night in a game that would probably have made you claw your eyes out. SMU shot 28% from the field and USF did not fare much better and was brutal from the stripe besides. We can actually play a more conventional game tomorrow night, so we should get our first look at John Brandenburg; Assane Sene is probably still out with murky eligibility nonsense holding him back. At least, I'd like to see these guys out there. Both Brandenburg and Soroye will come in handy, as USF, unlike VMI, actually have some basketball-player sized people on their team. USF has their own version of Soroye in Mobolaji Ajayi. He's their biggest guy, he rebounds, blocks shots, all that stuff that a tall skinny 6'9" guy is expected to do. But Soroye is taller and much bigger and should be able to nullify Ajayi's post presence.

At the risk of overrating our own team, this should really be a much easier game than VMI, despite the conference affiliation. VMI makes you play a game you don't want to play, and you hope you're more talented than they are because you're not likely to outscheme them at what they do. USF appears to essentially be a (hopefully) less talented version of us, right down to the tall Nigerian in the post. We should be able to just play our game and beat these guys; a loss will teach us a lot more than we want to know about this season.

Monday, November 17, 2008

weekend review

Monday means it's time to check out the news I ignored over the weekend.

First, hoops. Hoops season is upon us, and the VMI game is in the books. No surprise, given the way VMI plays their game, it was an NBA style score at 107-97. Half of my predictions came true. Our 7-footers didn't see the court (Sene for some foggy eligibility reasons) but as I thought, the fouls were an issue (VMI's Travis Holmes fouled out and three more players ended up with four) and VMI had no answer whatsoever for our bigger players like Mike Scott (26 points, 18 boards). The three-point and foul shooting have got to get better though. I won't get too many basketball games on TV this year, but 18/28 foul shooting tells me plenty. That's gotta improve. Still, even though the Big South is a one-bid league, that's a game we should be glad is behind us and in the win column. That's a dangerous style of play. USF on Wednesday ought to be a little less scary despite being a Big East team.

Speaking of Sene, there is some worthwhile fluffery in the RTD regarding our favorite Senagalese. You gotta love a guy who can speak three languages.

Futbol! Thanks to our pretty shocking upset of Wake Forest in the semis, I got my first look at the soccer team yesterday. Now, I don't know a whole hell of a lot about the ins and outs of soccer. Couldn't tell you whether we should deploy an extra midfielder or what the hell ever. Pretty obvious that we were the second-best team on the pitch yesterday though. Fatigue? Sure. No ridiculously amazing freshmen thanks to freak knee injuries? Sure. We got beat, though, and it should have been a wider margin because that ball was definitely over the goal line. Good thing there's no instant replay.

Anyway, we're in the NCAAs, and we even have a bye, which is nice. As the 10th seed, we get a bye and a home game against the winner of Connecticut and Fairfield. If we manage to win two games, we get to advance to play, uh....Maryland.

At the ACC Sports Journal, they point out that the deadline to extend Al Groh's contract is coming up, and the prospects for that are iffy at best. OK, that's not too surprising, but they bring up the excellent point that failing to extend Groh through 2012 would leave merely three years on his contract for the first time in his tenure. That's kind of a magic number because eligibility lasts, you know, four years, and having only three years of durability means the old "don't go there because he might not be there your whole time" recruiting tactic kicks in. Groh's been on the hot seat for a while now, so he's probably had to deal with that already, but still, another log on the fire underneath his chair is never helpful.

It's playoff season in Virginia....high school playoff season. And Dominique Wallace had touchdowns three different ways in his team's 35-12 win. Oscar Smith played in a mud bowl, and Perry Jones did the dirty work to the tune of 175 yards, and his teammate Tim Smith cleaned up afterward with four touchdown catches. Jones had a TD of his own for good measure. Alex Owah also scored a couple touchdowns, but Harrisonburg's season is over.

Movement on the recruiting board is moderate:

- DE Garry Gilliam committed to Penn State, so he's off. Not a huge loss, as we already have three DE's in the class.

- WR Terdema Ussery is added and basically takes Gilliam's spot in the "good chance" section. I don't know a lot about Ussery but if your top three schools are UVA, Stanford, and Cal, you've probably got something going right in the classroom. Also, Scout is like wicked high on this guy. The other two services give him a decent but middling grade; Scout thinks he's the #14 receiver in the land. Weird, because Scout is usually the stingiest with their stars.

- Kevin Newsome is gone after naming a more or less official four of PSU, VT, OSU, and BC.

- I also removed DE Michael Buchanan. There's just nothing there. It's not happening.

Well. While our 'Hoos spent Saturday on their couches, the other ACC teams were out making a mess of the ACC standings as usual. Let's see what the blogs have to say.

Clemson treated Duke like Duke. "I needed that," says the Mickey Plyler Blog. Indeed, Duke is really useful for teams who "need that." EXCEPT US DAMMIT

UNC did not fare so well against Maryland. I needed a damn shower after that game. Rooting for Maryland - against a team I happen to like no less - just makes you feel......ewwwww. Grody. Bleh. Anyway, Tar Heel Mania dealt with the loss in the tried-and-true fashion of ripping on insane message board posters - the Scout boards are something of a target-rich environment for this pastime. An excerpt:

Some people, however, are a bit more short-sighted. Take, for example, these, um, gems from the Inside Carolina boards, guaranteed to combust after a loss:

“I’m tired of watching my football team lose when it matters most YEAR after YEAR.”

Because the sheer amount of important games we’ve had for the past decade is just EARTH SHATTERING.

VT lost to Miami in a Thursday night game that will be Exhibit W in the upcoming case before the Supreme Court, People of Blacksburg v. Stinespring. I can't decide which I like better as a College Game Balls descriptive of Stiney's crew: "offensive abortion" or repeated references to poop.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

i'm a ramblin' wreck from georgia tech and a hellUVA'n engineer

This week, to be a UVA fan is to be a Georgia Tech fan. Our Coastal Division hopes rest on the Yellow Jackets. Actually, they also rest on us beating both Clemson and VT, but to save time for all of us, just add "assuming we win out" to basically everything in this post.

So why Georgia Tech? The simple fact is that if they do not beat Miami on Thursday, then we lose any and all tiebreakers for the division.

We don't have to worry about Duke or VT. If we end up tied with Duke, a bowl game is probably out of the question, let alone the division title. VT already has three losses - if we win out, it's their fourth. No worries.

So in the next two weeks, there are only two games each (besides ours) that affect us. Chronologically, these are:

Miami @ Georgia Tech
NC State @ UNC
UNC @ Duke
Miami @ NC State

Four games means 16 distinct possibilities. Let's get scientific and break them down, one by one.

---------------------------
Scenario 1:

Miami beats Georgia Tech
UNC beats NC State
UNC beats Duke
Miami beats NC State

Miami 6-2
UVA 5-3
UNC 5-3
GT 4-4
Miami wins division with no tiebreakers.
---------------------------
Scenario 2:

Miami beats Georgia Tech
UNC beats NC State
UNC beats Duke
NC State beats Miami

Miami 5-3
UVA 5-3
UNC 5-3
GT 4-4
Miami wins the division based on the second tiebreaker: record within division. Miami 4-1, UNC and UVA 3-2.
---------------------------
Scenario 3:

Miami beats Georgia Tech
UNC beats NC State
Duke beats UNC
Miami beats NC State

Miami 6-2
UVA 5-3
UNC 4-4
GT 4-4
Miami wins division with no tiebreakers.
---------------------------
Scenario 4:

Miami beats Georgia Tech
UNC beats NC State
Duke beats UNC
NC State beats Miami

Miami 5-3
UVA 5-3
UNC 4-4
GT 4-4
Miami wins division based on head-to-head result.
---------------------------
Scenario 5:

Miami beats Georgia Tech
NC State beats UNC
UNC beats Duke
Miami beats NC State

Miami 6-2
UVA 5-3
UNC 4-4
GT 4-4
Miami wins division with no tiebreakers.
---------------------------
Scenario 6:

Miami beats Georgia Tech
NC State beats UNC
UNC beats Duke
NC State beats Miami

Miami 5-3
UVA 5-3
UNC 4-4
GT 4-4
Miami wins division based on head-to-head result.
---------------------------
Scenario 7:

Miami beats Georgia Tech
NC State beats UNC
Duke beats UNC
Miami beats NC State

Miami 6-2
UVA 5-3
GT 4-4
UNC 3-5
Miami wins division with no tiebreakers.
---------------------------
Scenario 8:

Miami beats Georgia Tech
NC State beats UNC
Duke beats UNC
NC State beats Miami

Miami 5-3
UVA 5-3
GT 4-4
UNC 3-5
Miami wins division based on head-to-head result.
---------------------------

So. As you can see, there's nothing about a Miami win over Georgia Tech that's good for us. No matter what happens after that, the tiebreakers don't tiebreak in our favor. In fact, if Miami does beat GT, that would eliminate everyone but UNC. Let's look at a happier group of scenarios - the ones involving a Yellow Jacket victory.

---------------------------
Scenario 9:

Georgia Tech beats Miami
UNC beats NC State
UNC beats Duke
Miami beats NC State

UVA 5-3
UNC 5-3
Miami 5-3
GT 5-3
Virginia wins division. UVA and UNC are 2-1, Miami and GT 1-2 in the "round robin" head-to-head. UVA wins on head-to-head against UNC. This is the infamous 4-way tie scenario.
---------------------------
Scenario 10:

Georgia Tech beats Miami
UNC beats NC State
UNC beats Duke
NC State beats Miami

UVA 5-3
GT 5-3
UNC 5-3
Miami 4-4
Virginia wins division on head-to-head against GT and UNC.
---------------------------
Scenario 11:

Georgia Tech beats Miami
UNC beats NC State
Duke beats UNC
Miami beats NC State

Miami 5-3
UVA 5-3
GT 5-3
UNC 4-4
Miami wins division. Round robin head-to-head is even at 1-1 each. UVA and Miami divison records are 3-2; GT is 2-3, eliminating GT. Miami wins on head-to-head result.
---------------------------
Scenario 12:

Georgia Tech beats Miami
UNC beats NC State
Duke beats UNC
NC State beats Miami

UVA 5-3
GT 5-3
UNC 4-4
Miami 4-4
Virginia wins division based on head-to-head result.
---------------------------
Scenario 13:

Georgia Tech beats Miami
NC State beats UNC
UNC beats Duke
Miami beats NC State

Miami 5-3
UVA 5-3
GT 5-3
UNC 4-4
Miami wins division. Round robin head-to-head is even at 1-1 each. UVA and Miami divison records are 3-2; GT is 2-3, eliminating GT. Miami wins on head-to-head result.
---------------------------
Scenario 14:

Georgia Tech beats Miami
NC State beats UNC
UNC beats Duke
NC State beats Miami

UVA 5-3
GT 5-3
UNC 4-4
Miami 4-4
Virginia wins division based on head-to-head result.
---------------------------
Scenario 15:

Georgia Tech beats Miami
NC State beats UNC
Duke beats UNC
Miami beats NC State

Miami 5-3
UVA 5-3
GT 5-3
UNC 3-5
Miami wins division. Round robin head-to-head is even at 1-1 each. UVA and Miami divison records are 3-2; GT is 2-3, eliminating GT. Miami wins on head-to-head result.
---------------------------
Scenario 16:

Georgia Tech beats Miami
NC State beats UNC
Duke beats UNC
NC State beats Miami

UVA 5-3
GT 5-3
Miami 4-4
UNC 3-5
Virginia wins division based on head-to-head result.
---------------------------

So if you're counting, that was 5 out of 16 possible scenarios that give us the division title, assuming we win out. However, four of those five involve NC State beating Miami, so it's not really a 5-in-16 chance.

What it boils down to is this. For us to win the division:

1. We must beat Clemson and Virginia Tech.
2. Georgia Tech must beat Miami.
3a. UNC must beat Duke and NC State OR...
3b. NC State must beat Miami

Essentially our best bet is the four-way tie, which would result from 1, 2, and 3a. Obviously, this is all predicated on us taking care of business, which, if it were that easy, we'd have done against Miami and we wouldn't have to screw around with this tiebreaker mess.

Realistically, we should start thinking about bowl games on the blue turf or in a baseball stadium. If we go bowling at all. Clemson and VT ain't exactly Richmond where we can display our usual offensive ineptitude and expect to win.

As a final note, please visit TheSabre's Philip Brown donation page. Brown was a UVA defensive back from a few years back, who was diagnosed with testicular cancer, went into remission, and relapsed. Brown faces another battery of tests and chemotherapy, as well as travel costs for his family. Click the link to visit TheSabre and make a donation or sign the guestbook.

season preview: Georgia Tech


Media prediction: 8th

ACC schedule:

Twice: Boston College, Clemson, Maryland, NC State, Wake Forest
Once: Duke (H), Florida State (A), Miami (H), North Carolina (A), Virginia (H), Virginia Tech (A)

2007 All-ACC:

First team: None
Second team: None
Third team: None
Freshman: None
Defensive: None
HM: G Anthony Morrow, F D'Andre Bell (def.)

(italics: returning)

Projected starters:

PG: Maurice Miller (So.)
SG: Lewis Clinch (Sr.)
SF: Zach Peacock (Jr.)
PF: Gani Lawal (So.)
C: Alade Aminu (Sr.)

Bench:

G Iman Shumpert (Fr.)
G Lance Storrs (So.)
F Bassirou Dieng (Sr.)
C Brad Sheehan (So.)

(italics: returning starter)

Coach: Paul Hewitt (9th season)

All those returning starters are usually a good sign. With such a large stable of returning players, Tech signed only one player (but a really good one) in their recruiting class of 2008. But the story for now is who's not in the lineup. GT's best defensive player last year, D'Andre Bell, is out for the season following spinal surgery. Scary. And with Lewis Clinch out for seven games with an acute report card sprain, Tech is instead relying on freshman Iman Shumpert and sophomore Maurice Miller to carry what was supposed to be a senior-laden backcourt.

Not that they're entirely in trouble. Shumpert is the aforementioned top recruit, and he turned down the likes of UNC to go to Atlanta. Miller started almost 20 games last season as a freshman, so he has the necessary experience under his belt, and is a nearly .400 3-point shooter besides. And Clinch is not really a deadeye shot. Quantity rather than quality is what earns him his points, and it's possible he finds himself relegated to the bench if Shumpert proves too valuable to bench.

In the frontcourt, the Jackets will have a weapon if sophomore Gani Lawal can harness his shot. Lawal has a real chance to lead the team in scoring, but he needs to improve his pathetic free-throw shooting (not even a .500 shooter) and play with more consistency. He can't look for help from Alade Aminu, who starts alongside him - Aminu is a space-eater, in the game to defend and rebound. Zach Peacock may be the X-factor. Their top bench player a year ago, he moves into the starting lineup this year.

Georgia Tech will probably take a step back this season - and they didn't exactly light up the postseason (or even appear in it) last year. Only two players - Anthony Morrow and Jeremis Smith - were good enough to start every game for them last year, and they're gone, as is their defensive stopper. Lawal and Shumpert may be their most talented players, but Shumpert is a freshman and Lawal has inconsistency issues to overcome. Tech is not likely to make any postseason tournament higher than the CBI.

Blogpoll ballot, Week 12

Nothing fancy. Blogpoll ballot. Check it out, read my justifications, make your comments, you know the drill.

RankTeamDelta
1 Texas Tech --
2 Alabama --
3 Texas --
4 Oklahoma --
5 Southern Cal --
6 Florida --
7 Utah --
8 Penn State --
9 Oklahoma State --
10 Ohio State --
11 Missouri --
12 Boise State --
13 Ball State --
14 Michigan State --
15 TCU --
16 Brigham Young --
17 Georgia 1
18 Oregon State 8
19 Cincinnati 4
20 Oregon 4
21 Miami (Florida) 5
22 Maryland 4
23 Western Michigan 3
24 Central Michigan 2
25 Florida State 6

Dropped Out: North Carolina (#17), Tulsa (#20), Georgia Tech (#21), California (#22), LSU (#25).


- As you can see, not a whole lot of movement from #13 on up. Everyone just sort of.....did what they were supposed to do. BYU moves up to #14 mainly for beating a respectable team while MSU and TCU made large dents in their couches. EDIT: No they don't. See comments. So now, no movement at all from #15 and up. This seems strange and will probably earn me a second Mr. Stubborn award.

- Georgia only moves up because other teams move down. If I could punish them for making it a close one against Auburn, I would have, but I don't see the justification for moving them any lower.

- It might seem odd that WMU gets to be ranked above CMU despite the result of their game. But I couldn't ignore the overall body of work. Big Ten teams: Western beat Illinois, and by more than Central beat Indiana. Toledo and Buffalo: Central won squeakers, Western won handily. NIU: Central needed overtime. Plus Western has an extra win. Both teams have Ball State as their next game, so we'll see how that goes.

- Why are there even two MAC teams instead of GT and UNC? Because the ACC won't stop losing to itself. I'm throwing out "who-beat-who" scenarios entirely because they all beat each other and its ridiculous. So Miami and Maryland, the two teams that control their own destinies, get the nod.

- GT should actually be ranked instead of FSU, but, I'm being selfish here. See, if there's one rule of thumb in the ACC, it's that ranked teams lose to unranked teams. In 13 games between an unranked ACC team and a ranked ACC team, the ranked ACC team is 3-10. If Miami beats Georgia Tech on Thursday, UVA's division title hopes are officially snuffed. For the next five days, I and the rest of the Wahoo faithful are Georgia Tech fans. I'm doing my best to put them in position to win.

- Oh right, I forgot. One other team I wanted to address. LSU. Yeah, what, seriously? Troy? You spotted Troy a four-touchdown lead? I don't care if you won, get the hell off my ballot and don't come back.