This is a Virginia blog, right? Just checking. So let's talk a little UVA today. Both the depth chart and the recruiting board get a sprucing up, but the latter is actually a little skimpy. Players are in camp now, meaning high schoolers as well, so it's time for things to die down a little bit. Commitment season cranks up again around mid-to-late September. The only change to the recruiting board is the removal of OT Jake Goins, who to nobody's surprise committed to Tech.
The depth chart is also updated with some of the news out of fall camp. There's actually surprisingly little shuffling for a team with new systems and a new coach. Changes so far:
- Jake McGee moves from QB to TE.
- Hunter Steward moves from OT to DT.
- Pablo Alvarez moves from S to CB.
- Corey Lillard and Quintin Hunter have left the program.
The first two are on the "NCAA is investigating Lane Kiffin's recruiting practices" level of surprise. The first is to alleviate a logjam of too much depth, and the second is to create it at a position of need. McGee had been talked about as a tight end from the day he committed. Alvarez could be at any secondary position and it wouldn't change the fact that the secondary is absurdly, unbelievably thin. The eight scholarship non-freshmen in the secondary are enough - if nobody gets hurt. Which is asking a lot.
Future changes to the depth chart are in order, although nothing earthshaking appears to be in the offing. Miles Gooch will be moved, we just don't know where. I'm guessing WR, but we'll see. That's about it for position moves. And running back aside, we're even a little light on position battles. What needs to be resolved:
- Backup quarterback. Mike Rocco has been making his presence known, and while it'd be a mild surprise if he were to leapfrog into the #2 spot, it'd only be a mild surprise. The order of things behind Marc Verica is way up in the air.
- Running back slots 1 through 7. This'll go all the way to September 4. Keith Payne is officially in, so seven it is.
- I don't think the offensive tackles will change between now and the end of camp, but I do think things will shake up as the season goes on.
- ILB is a little unresolved between Steve Greer and Aaron Taliaferro, but I'm thinking Greer in the end.
Two real position battles, and one of them we hope the winner never has to see the field except against, say, VMI. It's a decidedly drama-free camp, relatively speaking. Enjoy it because next year shapes up like a good old-fashioned quarterback tussle. Probably a four-way fight, at least in the beginning.
Other news:
- Condolences to tight end Colter Phillips and his family; his father was killed in the Alaska plane crash that also killed former senator Ted Stevens.
- It turns out college football players aren't much different from the general population when it comes to the subject of playoffs. The majority want one, but once you start talking about what you'd have to sacrifice to get it, support drops off. An overwhelming majority like their bowl trips. And who can blame them? Free vacation to (usually) somewhere nice, and a goody bag to boot.
They're like the general population in one other respect, too: It appears that most of them have their pet idea, just like the fans. See, fans think a playoff is great, but if you tell them you have to have a playoff that's much different from their gumdrop rainbow vision of it, they don't like the idea as much. Start proposing actual playoff ideas instead of "do you want a playoff" and there are a lot more "no" answers than "yes."
- Fluff articles don't usually tell you much of anything, but I have a strict policy that requires linking to any fluff that informs you when you're rooting for players nicknamed Shrek and Donkey. That'd be big Morgan Moses - who dropped 15 pounds in order to show up weighing 350 - and Kevin Parks. New game plan: Line up Parks and Perry Jones behind Big Mo so nobody can see them (they'll both fit) and make the opponents guess which has the ball. And then it won't matter anyway because Mo will eat them if they get too close to the ball.
Seriously, that is a guy who it will be impossible to keep off the field. Once he gains even a rudimentary knowledge of the offense it'll be way too tempting to avoid just tossing him in there and running behind him.
- UNC is getting deeper into trouble all the time. If this turns out true, the NCAA will likely find the players involved ineligible and make UNC vacate the '09 season and tack on a few scholarship sacrifices for good measure. John Blake is a shady, shady character, the kind that everybody seems to know something about but clams up once the NCAA starts getting serious.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
season preview: Miami
Miami Hurricanes
Schedule:
9/2: Florida A&M (Thu.)
9/11: @ Ohio State
9/18: BYE
9/23: @ Pittsburgh (Thu.)
10/2: @ Clemson
10/9: Florida State
10/16: @ Duke
10/23: North Carolina
10/30: @ Virginia
11/6: Maryland
11/13: @ Georgia Tech
11/20: Virginia Tech
11/27: South Florida
Skip: Boston College, NC State, Wake Forest
Projected starters:
QB: Jacory Harris (Jr.)
RB: Graig Cooper (Sr.)
FB: Patrick Hill (5Sr.)
WR: Leonard Hankerson (Sr.)
WR: LaRon Byrd (Jr.)
TE: Richard Gordon (5Sr.)
LT: Orlando Franklin (Sr.)
LG: Harland Gunn (rJr.)
C: Tyler Horn (rJr.)
RG: Brandon Washington (So.)
RT: Joel Figueroa (5Sr.)
DE: Allen Bailey (Sr.)
DT: Micanor Regis (Jr.)
DT: Josh Holmes (5Sr.)
DE: Andrew Smith (Jr.)
SLB: Sean Spence (Jr.)
MLB: Kylan Robinson (5Sr.)
WLB: Colin McCarthy (5Sr.)
CB: Brandon Harris (Jr.)
CB: DeMarcus Van Dyke (Sr.)
FS: Vaughn Telemaque (rSo.)
SS: JoJo Nicolas (rJr.)
K: Matt Bosher (5Sr.)
P: Matt Bosher (5Sr.)
Coach: Randy Shannon (4th season)
Media prediction: 2nd, Coastal Division
(Italics indicate new starter.)
All-ACC:
2009 1st team: OT Jason Fox, K Matt Bosher, DT Allen Bailey, CB Brandon Harris
2009 2nd team: LB Darryl Sharpton, LB Colin McCarthy, P Matt Bosher
2009 HM: G Orlando Franklin, DT Joe Joseph, S Randy Phillips
2010 preseason: DE Allen Bailey, CB Brandon Harris, PK/P Matt Bosher
(Italics indicate returning player.)
Randy Shannon had a rough beginning in Coral Gables, but a 9-4 season in 2009 means that by all appearances, the Hurricanes are once again to be taken seriously. The schedule isn't much easier now than it was last year, but the Canes won't be overmatched in any of their ACC contests and they're a serious threat to finally give the ACC the FSU/Miami championship game that it's coveted ever since expansion.....just in time for the game to move to Charlotte.
OFFENSE
Much is made of Jacory Harris's penchant for throwing interceptions, and indeed, in two of Miami's three ACC losses last season, he threw a total of seven, derailing Miami's chances at getting to the ACCCG. But Harris was just a sophomore, in his first season with total control of the offense, and INTs aside he did a really impressive job of spreading the ball around. Ten different Hurricanes reached double digits in receptions as Harris topped 3,400 passing yards. Most of those players return, too, giving Harris a remarkable array of targets, and none more dangerous than Leonard Hankerson, who caught 45 balls for over 800 yards and six touchdowns. Hankerson's stats would probably be much bigger on another team where there weren't so many other receivers, but Travis Benjamin and LaRon Byrd, among others, will get their share of catches too. This is among the deepest receiver squads in the conference.
Tight end is another story. Richard Gordon is listed as the projected starter mainly because you normally run on first down; he weighs in at 270+ pounds and isn't really a pass-catcher. Miami was hit hard by graduation here and likely won't see their tight ends figure into the passing game as much as last year; juco transfer Chase Ford is liable to be the primary receiving option here, but the main beneficiaries may be the wide receivers.
The running game was a three-pronged attack last year, and two of them return. Graig Cooper will probably continue to get the largest share of the carries, but he'll be heavily spelled by Damien Berry, who might actually have been Miami's most effective back in 2009. Miami doesn't have a single back ready to seize the job and be an every-down, every-series player, but they have a long list of them to spread the work around to.
Lurking below the surface, though, is the question of the offensive line. There are just two returning starters, seniors Orlando Franklin and Joel Figueroa, and they've been moved to the outside in an effort to shore up a troublesome pass protection unit. The interior lineman have little experience, and most troublesome is that center Tyler Horn has just a small handful of games under his belt and even fewer at center; he's played there only in the largest of Miami's blowouts. There's more experience at guard, but Brandon Washington and Harland Gunn have been flip-flopped; Gunn's five career starts have been on the right side and Washington's experience is on the left, but they're working the opposite sides as camp begins. The unit isn't going to be bad enough to torpedo Miami's bowl hopes, but it bears watching to see if the running game can stay effective.
DEFENSE
Harris is a quality quarterback, and the media really likes teams with returning starters there, but this defense is why Miami's favored to finish high in the league's tougher division. Eight starters return, and it's a very veteran unit overall; the only underclassman atop the depth chart is a redshirt sophomore with a world of talent.
That would be safety Vaughn Telemaque, who started for most of the season as a redshirt freshman last year. JoJo Nicolas also makes a return to the lineup after losing his 2009 season to injury; he started eight games at safety in 2008. And the Canes aren't going to be able to keep Ray Ray Armstrong hidden on the bench much longer as Armstron enters his sophomore season. The corners are big-time, too, especially 1st-team all-conference performer Brandon Harris, who broke up 15 passes in 2009 and intercepted two more.
Allen Bailey joined Harris on that honors squad as a DT; Bailey had 7 sacks in 2009 despite splitting time between tackle and end. He'll stay at end this year to give Miami a big-league pass-rush presence; there wouldn't be much of one otherwise, as Andrew Smith isn't the playmaking type. Besides, the interior has two stout run-stoppers in Josh Holmes and newly-promoted (and terrifically-named) Micanor Regis. Neither are holy terrors, but both do a good job getting into the backfield, and they'll be rotated with sophomore Marcus Forston. Forston was a freshman all-American in 2008 but like Nicolas, lost 2009 to injury and earned a medical redshirt. No worries on the line.
Linebacker is interesting. The outside is manned by two stalwarts: Colin McCarthy had 95 tackles and 10.5 for loss in 2009 on his way to second-team all-ACC recognition. Sean Spence regressed in 2009 after a 2008 nod as ACC defensive ROY, but that was due in part to an injury that caused him to miss three games. In the middle you have career special-teamer Kylan Robinson, who has four tackles in four years. He's got the job because Ramon Buchanan missed the spring with an injury, but that's probably not a finished conversation just yet. Nevertheless, the rest of the defense's middle is more than solid enough to cover up any potential weak link at MLB.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Matt Bosher is outstanding as both a kicker (14/16 FGs) and punter (42.5 average.) After the Georgia Tech game, second of 2009, he was perfect on field goals. The return game is nothing to shout about.
OUTLOOK
Solid, not at all flashy, definitely good enough to get the job done, but with a few lingering question marks. This is Randy Shannon's fourth season, and the team is coming together in his image; the preceding sentence could just as easily describe Shannon as it could his 2010 squad. There shouldn't be any issues with the defense - from back to front it's likely to add up to one of the conference's best. The offense will make or break the difference between a solid but unspectacular finish that looks remarkably similar to last year's 9-4 mark, or a trip to the ACCCG and maybe the Orange Bowl. Jacory Harris is a very good quarterback, but those turnovers have got to stop. And if the running game struggles, you'll know why: the inexperience on the interior of the O-line. The good news for Miami is that there isn't a team in this conference without at least a few of those types of issues. The Hurricanes are one of a handful of teams that will contend for the conference title; whichever of those teams best handles its respective questions, wins.
Schedule:
9/2: Florida A&M (Thu.)
9/11: @ Ohio State
9/18: BYE
9/23: @ Pittsburgh (Thu.)
10/2: @ Clemson
10/9: Florida State
10/16: @ Duke
10/23: North Carolina
10/30: @ Virginia
11/6: Maryland
11/13: @ Georgia Tech
11/20: Virginia Tech
11/27: South Florida
Skip: Boston College, NC State, Wake Forest
Projected starters:
QB: Jacory Harris (Jr.)
RB: Graig Cooper (Sr.)
FB: Patrick Hill (5Sr.)
WR: Leonard Hankerson (Sr.)
WR: LaRon Byrd (Jr.)
TE: Richard Gordon (5Sr.)
LT: Orlando Franklin (Sr.)
LG: Harland Gunn (rJr.)
C: Tyler Horn (rJr.)
RG: Brandon Washington (So.)
RT: Joel Figueroa (5Sr.)
DE: Allen Bailey (Sr.)
DT: Micanor Regis (Jr.)
DT: Josh Holmes (5Sr.)
DE: Andrew Smith (Jr.)
SLB: Sean Spence (Jr.)
MLB: Kylan Robinson (5Sr.)
WLB: Colin McCarthy (5Sr.)
CB: Brandon Harris (Jr.)
CB: DeMarcus Van Dyke (Sr.)
FS: Vaughn Telemaque (rSo.)
SS: JoJo Nicolas (rJr.)
K: Matt Bosher (5Sr.)
P: Matt Bosher (5Sr.)
Coach: Randy Shannon (4th season)
Media prediction: 2nd, Coastal Division
(Italics indicate new starter.)
All-ACC:
2009 1st team: OT Jason Fox, K Matt Bosher, DT Allen Bailey, CB Brandon Harris
2009 2nd team: LB Darryl Sharpton, LB Colin McCarthy, P Matt Bosher
2009 HM: G Orlando Franklin, DT Joe Joseph, S Randy Phillips
2010 preseason: DE Allen Bailey, CB Brandon Harris, PK/P Matt Bosher
(Italics indicate returning player.)
Randy Shannon had a rough beginning in Coral Gables, but a 9-4 season in 2009 means that by all appearances, the Hurricanes are once again to be taken seriously. The schedule isn't much easier now than it was last year, but the Canes won't be overmatched in any of their ACC contests and they're a serious threat to finally give the ACC the FSU/Miami championship game that it's coveted ever since expansion.....just in time for the game to move to Charlotte.
OFFENSE
Much is made of Jacory Harris's penchant for throwing interceptions, and indeed, in two of Miami's three ACC losses last season, he threw a total of seven, derailing Miami's chances at getting to the ACCCG. But Harris was just a sophomore, in his first season with total control of the offense, and INTs aside he did a really impressive job of spreading the ball around. Ten different Hurricanes reached double digits in receptions as Harris topped 3,400 passing yards. Most of those players return, too, giving Harris a remarkable array of targets, and none more dangerous than Leonard Hankerson, who caught 45 balls for over 800 yards and six touchdowns. Hankerson's stats would probably be much bigger on another team where there weren't so many other receivers, but Travis Benjamin and LaRon Byrd, among others, will get their share of catches too. This is among the deepest receiver squads in the conference.
Tight end is another story. Richard Gordon is listed as the projected starter mainly because you normally run on first down; he weighs in at 270+ pounds and isn't really a pass-catcher. Miami was hit hard by graduation here and likely won't see their tight ends figure into the passing game as much as last year; juco transfer Chase Ford is liable to be the primary receiving option here, but the main beneficiaries may be the wide receivers.
The running game was a three-pronged attack last year, and two of them return. Graig Cooper will probably continue to get the largest share of the carries, but he'll be heavily spelled by Damien Berry, who might actually have been Miami's most effective back in 2009. Miami doesn't have a single back ready to seize the job and be an every-down, every-series player, but they have a long list of them to spread the work around to.
Lurking below the surface, though, is the question of the offensive line. There are just two returning starters, seniors Orlando Franklin and Joel Figueroa, and they've been moved to the outside in an effort to shore up a troublesome pass protection unit. The interior lineman have little experience, and most troublesome is that center Tyler Horn has just a small handful of games under his belt and even fewer at center; he's played there only in the largest of Miami's blowouts. There's more experience at guard, but Brandon Washington and Harland Gunn have been flip-flopped; Gunn's five career starts have been on the right side and Washington's experience is on the left, but they're working the opposite sides as camp begins. The unit isn't going to be bad enough to torpedo Miami's bowl hopes, but it bears watching to see if the running game can stay effective.
DEFENSE
Harris is a quality quarterback, and the media really likes teams with returning starters there, but this defense is why Miami's favored to finish high in the league's tougher division. Eight starters return, and it's a very veteran unit overall; the only underclassman atop the depth chart is a redshirt sophomore with a world of talent.
That would be safety Vaughn Telemaque, who started for most of the season as a redshirt freshman last year. JoJo Nicolas also makes a return to the lineup after losing his 2009 season to injury; he started eight games at safety in 2008. And the Canes aren't going to be able to keep Ray Ray Armstrong hidden on the bench much longer as Armstron enters his sophomore season. The corners are big-time, too, especially 1st-team all-conference performer Brandon Harris, who broke up 15 passes in 2009 and intercepted two more.
Allen Bailey joined Harris on that honors squad as a DT; Bailey had 7 sacks in 2009 despite splitting time between tackle and end. He'll stay at end this year to give Miami a big-league pass-rush presence; there wouldn't be much of one otherwise, as Andrew Smith isn't the playmaking type. Besides, the interior has two stout run-stoppers in Josh Holmes and newly-promoted (and terrifically-named) Micanor Regis. Neither are holy terrors, but both do a good job getting into the backfield, and they'll be rotated with sophomore Marcus Forston. Forston was a freshman all-American in 2008 but like Nicolas, lost 2009 to injury and earned a medical redshirt. No worries on the line.
Linebacker is interesting. The outside is manned by two stalwarts: Colin McCarthy had 95 tackles and 10.5 for loss in 2009 on his way to second-team all-ACC recognition. Sean Spence regressed in 2009 after a 2008 nod as ACC defensive ROY, but that was due in part to an injury that caused him to miss three games. In the middle you have career special-teamer Kylan Robinson, who has four tackles in four years. He's got the job because Ramon Buchanan missed the spring with an injury, but that's probably not a finished conversation just yet. Nevertheless, the rest of the defense's middle is more than solid enough to cover up any potential weak link at MLB.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Matt Bosher is outstanding as both a kicker (14/16 FGs) and punter (42.5 average.) After the Georgia Tech game, second of 2009, he was perfect on field goals. The return game is nothing to shout about.
OUTLOOK
Solid, not at all flashy, definitely good enough to get the job done, but with a few lingering question marks. This is Randy Shannon's fourth season, and the team is coming together in his image; the preceding sentence could just as easily describe Shannon as it could his 2010 squad. There shouldn't be any issues with the defense - from back to front it's likely to add up to one of the conference's best. The offense will make or break the difference between a solid but unspectacular finish that looks remarkably similar to last year's 9-4 mark, or a trip to the ACCCG and maybe the Orange Bowl. Jacory Harris is a very good quarterback, but those turnovers have got to stop. And if the running game struggles, you'll know why: the inexperience on the interior of the O-line. The good news for Miami is that there isn't a team in this conference without at least a few of those types of issues. The Hurricanes are one of a handful of teams that will contend for the conference title; whichever of those teams best handles its respective questions, wins.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
season preview: Maryland
Maryland Terrapins
Schedule:
9/6: Navy (Mon.)
9/11: Morgan State
9/18: @ West Virginia
9/15: Florida International
10/2: Duke
10/9: BYE
10/16: @ Clemson
10/23: @ Boston College
10/30: Wake Forest
11/6: @ Miami
11/13: @ Virginia
11/20: Florida State
11/28: NC State
Skip: Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia Tech
Projected starters:
QB: Jamarr Robinson (rJr.)
RB: Da'Rel Scott (5Sr.)
FB: Haroon Brown (rJr.)
WR: Adrian Cannon (5Sr.)
WR: Torrey Smith (rJr.)
TE: Lansford Watson (rJr.)
LT: Justin Gilbert (rSo.)
LG: Andrew Gonnella (rJr.)
C: Paul Pinegar (5Sr.)
RG: Bennett Fulper (So.)
RT: R.J. Dill (rSo.)
DE: Drew Gloster (5Sr.)
NT: A.J. Francis (rSo.)
DT: Joe Vellano (rSo.)
DE: Justin Anderson (So.)
SLB: Adrian Moten (5Sr.)
MLB: Alex Wujciak (5Sr.)
WLB: Demetrius Hartsfield (rSo.)
CB: Trenton Hughes (rJr.)
CB: Cameron Chism (Jr.)
FS: Kenny Tate (Jr.)
SS: Antwine Perez (Sr.)
K: Nick Ferrara (So.)
P: Travis Baltz (Sr.)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Coach: Ralph Friedgen, 10th season
Media prediction: 6th place, Atlantic Division
All-ACC:
2009 1st team: LB Alex Wujciak
2009 2nd team: WR/KR Torrey Smith
2009 HM: none
2010 preseason: WR/KR Torrey Smith, LB Alex Wujciak
(Italics indicate returning player.)
One of the biggest open secrets in the ACC is that Maryland's 2-10 season would have sunk Ralph Friedgen if his buyout hadn't been so beefy. As it is, the James Franklin regime is still on ice in College Park, and another really difficult season awaits.
OFFENSE
The Jamarr Robinson era at quarterback actually began a little earlier than intended when Chris Turner suffered a season-ending injury midseason. No longer will the Maryland viewer be subjected to self-congratulatory announcers chortling over their own oh-so-clever Napoleon Dynamite jokes. Robinson is undoubtedly athletic - his 2009 rushing average is almost as big as his passive average, which isn't much - but it's likely he wasn't given free reign last year.
This year, he's got his - and Turner's - favorite targets back, in dynamic wideout Torrey Smith and his dangerous counterpart Adrian Cannon. This is one of the better receiver combos in the conference, and there's plenty of depth past them as well - third wideout Ronnie Tyler also returns, as do most of last year's receiving targets.
The running game is another story. It suffered badly when Da'Rel Scott went down with an injury midseason, but it would have suffered anyway behind a weak offensive line. Scott can be a weapon if he has blockers, but Davin Meggett is up and down, and change-of-pace sophomore Caleb Porzel - who you'll remember as a UVA decommit - just left the team. The line will again determine if Maryland has a running game. It's somewhat more experienced than last year, but has undergone a lot of shuffling. Paul Pinegar, as the line's most experienced and versatile player, moves from tackle to center, and Andrew Gonnella makes a move from right to left guard. There's a glaring weakness at left tackle, where nominal starter Justin Gilbert has no starting experience, and his backups are a redshirt freshman and a sophomore transfer from D-III Frostburg State. Maryland's pass protection was terrible last year, allowing 36 sacks, and the left tackle situation won't help improve on that.
DEFENSE
It starts and ends with the linebackers. All three starters return to that unit, and just two elsewhere on the field. Alex Wujciak cleans up the field; in 2009, he had almost twice as many tackles, with 131, as anyone else on the team. He added 8.5 TFL and 2 picks, which he returned for a combined 152 yards. 2009 sack leader (with six) Adrian Moten is also solid on the strong side.
But just like you don't want your secondary leading the team in tackles, you don't want your linebackers leading the team in sacks. The defensive line is woefully inexperienced. The only senior on the whole unit, Drew Gloster, has moved in his career from tight end to linebacker and finally to DE out of pure necessity, and lost a season in between to academics. He and his counterpart on the other end, Justin Anderson, have a combined total of nine career tackles to their credit. The inside is a little stouter, but the unit's one returning starter, sophomore DT A.J. Francis, isn't the get-inside-the-backfield type.
In the secondary, CB Cameron Chism is an impressive player, gathering four interceptions last season. But the secondary was slammed with graduation this offseason and needs to totally reinvent itself. Safety Antwine Perez saw a lot of time last year and racked up 45 tackles in a reserve role, and should be the leader of a unit that could be talented but is largely unproven.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Other than a horrible punt coverage unit that allowed 12 yards per return in 2009, this is likely to be one of the conference's better special teams units overall. Torrey Smith ran back two kicks to the house in 2009, and punter Travis Baltz averaged almost 41 yards a punt despite a midseason injury. Nick Ferrara improved his kicking as 2009 progressed, and as a sophomore this year he's likely to be one of the league's quality kickers.
OUTLOOK
Can Maryland improve on 2-10? The pieces are there to do so, but the Terps should in no way be confused with a bowl team. The passing game involves some dynamic athletes, which is probably a necessity rather than a luxury because the left side of the pocket is likely to spend all year collapsing. The running game won't be impressive either, and whether or not the defense will be effective is totally up in the air. I think the defensive line is going to be just this side of a disaster, and if not for Wujciak and Moten, the defense would be making a really strong case for conference's worst. They always say the game is won and lost in the trenches, and that's really bad news for Maryland. As it is, the Terps have just enough talent to play spoiler, but not enough to contend, and little enough that 2-10 isn't unimaginable again. Three or maybe four wins seems more likely, but whatever it takes to keep Friedgen off the unemployment line, they won't achieve it. Expect no bowl and a new coach in 2011.
Schedule:
9/6: Navy (Mon.)
9/11: Morgan State
9/18: @ West Virginia
9/15: Florida International
10/2: Duke
10/9: BYE
10/16: @ Clemson
10/23: @ Boston College
10/30: Wake Forest
11/6: @ Miami
11/13: @ Virginia
11/20: Florida State
11/28: NC State
Skip: Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia Tech
Projected starters:
QB: Jamarr Robinson (rJr.)
RB: Da'Rel Scott (5Sr.)
FB: Haroon Brown (rJr.)
WR: Adrian Cannon (5Sr.)
WR: Torrey Smith (rJr.)
TE: Lansford Watson (rJr.)
LT: Justin Gilbert (rSo.)
LG: Andrew Gonnella (rJr.)
C: Paul Pinegar (5Sr.)
RG: Bennett Fulper (So.)
RT: R.J. Dill (rSo.)
DE: Drew Gloster (5Sr.)
NT: A.J. Francis (rSo.)
DT: Joe Vellano (rSo.)
DE: Justin Anderson (So.)
SLB: Adrian Moten (5Sr.)
MLB: Alex Wujciak (5Sr.)
WLB: Demetrius Hartsfield (rSo.)
CB: Trenton Hughes (rJr.)
CB: Cameron Chism (Jr.)
FS: Kenny Tate (Jr.)
SS: Antwine Perez (Sr.)
K: Nick Ferrara (So.)
P: Travis Baltz (Sr.)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Coach: Ralph Friedgen, 10th season
Media prediction: 6th place, Atlantic Division
All-ACC:
2009 1st team: LB Alex Wujciak
2009 2nd team: WR/KR Torrey Smith
2009 HM: none
2010 preseason: WR/KR Torrey Smith, LB Alex Wujciak
(Italics indicate returning player.)
One of the biggest open secrets in the ACC is that Maryland's 2-10 season would have sunk Ralph Friedgen if his buyout hadn't been so beefy. As it is, the James Franklin regime is still on ice in College Park, and another really difficult season awaits.
OFFENSE
The Jamarr Robinson era at quarterback actually began a little earlier than intended when Chris Turner suffered a season-ending injury midseason. No longer will the Maryland viewer be subjected to self-congratulatory announcers chortling over their own oh-so-clever Napoleon Dynamite jokes. Robinson is undoubtedly athletic - his 2009 rushing average is almost as big as his passive average, which isn't much - but it's likely he wasn't given free reign last year.
This year, he's got his - and Turner's - favorite targets back, in dynamic wideout Torrey Smith and his dangerous counterpart Adrian Cannon. This is one of the better receiver combos in the conference, and there's plenty of depth past them as well - third wideout Ronnie Tyler also returns, as do most of last year's receiving targets.
The running game is another story. It suffered badly when Da'Rel Scott went down with an injury midseason, but it would have suffered anyway behind a weak offensive line. Scott can be a weapon if he has blockers, but Davin Meggett is up and down, and change-of-pace sophomore Caleb Porzel - who you'll remember as a UVA decommit - just left the team. The line will again determine if Maryland has a running game. It's somewhat more experienced than last year, but has undergone a lot of shuffling. Paul Pinegar, as the line's most experienced and versatile player, moves from tackle to center, and Andrew Gonnella makes a move from right to left guard. There's a glaring weakness at left tackle, where nominal starter Justin Gilbert has no starting experience, and his backups are a redshirt freshman and a sophomore transfer from D-III Frostburg State. Maryland's pass protection was terrible last year, allowing 36 sacks, and the left tackle situation won't help improve on that.
DEFENSE
It starts and ends with the linebackers. All three starters return to that unit, and just two elsewhere on the field. Alex Wujciak cleans up the field; in 2009, he had almost twice as many tackles, with 131, as anyone else on the team. He added 8.5 TFL and 2 picks, which he returned for a combined 152 yards. 2009 sack leader (with six) Adrian Moten is also solid on the strong side.
But just like you don't want your secondary leading the team in tackles, you don't want your linebackers leading the team in sacks. The defensive line is woefully inexperienced. The only senior on the whole unit, Drew Gloster, has moved in his career from tight end to linebacker and finally to DE out of pure necessity, and lost a season in between to academics. He and his counterpart on the other end, Justin Anderson, have a combined total of nine career tackles to their credit. The inside is a little stouter, but the unit's one returning starter, sophomore DT A.J. Francis, isn't the get-inside-the-backfield type.
In the secondary, CB Cameron Chism is an impressive player, gathering four interceptions last season. But the secondary was slammed with graduation this offseason and needs to totally reinvent itself. Safety Antwine Perez saw a lot of time last year and racked up 45 tackles in a reserve role, and should be the leader of a unit that could be talented but is largely unproven.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Other than a horrible punt coverage unit that allowed 12 yards per return in 2009, this is likely to be one of the conference's better special teams units overall. Torrey Smith ran back two kicks to the house in 2009, and punter Travis Baltz averaged almost 41 yards a punt despite a midseason injury. Nick Ferrara improved his kicking as 2009 progressed, and as a sophomore this year he's likely to be one of the league's quality kickers.
OUTLOOK
Can Maryland improve on 2-10? The pieces are there to do so, but the Terps should in no way be confused with a bowl team. The passing game involves some dynamic athletes, which is probably a necessity rather than a luxury because the left side of the pocket is likely to spend all year collapsing. The running game won't be impressive either, and whether or not the defense will be effective is totally up in the air. I think the defensive line is going to be just this side of a disaster, and if not for Wujciak and Moten, the defense would be making a really strong case for conference's worst. They always say the game is won and lost in the trenches, and that's really bad news for Maryland. As it is, the Terps have just enough talent to play spoiler, but not enough to contend, and little enough that 2-10 isn't unimaginable again. Three or maybe four wins seems more likely, but whatever it takes to keep Friedgen off the unemployment line, they won't achieve it. Expect no bowl and a new coach in 2011.
Monday, August 9, 2010
the recruit: Vincent Croce
Name: Vincent Croce
Position: DT
Hometown: New Market, MD
School: Our Lady of Good Counsel
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 260
ESPN: 79; three stars; #34 DT
Rivals: 5.7; three stars; #36 DT; MD #9
Scout: three stars; #37 DT
Other offers: Michigan, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Stanford, North Carolina, West Virginia, Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers, Purdue, Maryland, Louisville, Cincinnati, Duke, Central Florida
Since Rich Rodriguez took over as head coach at Michigan, the Wolverines' recruiting grounds have suddenly been overlapping UVA's a lot more than in the past, and it's the kind of competition UVA can ill afford. Several of UVA's top targets - Anthony LaLota and Kenny Wilkins are two that come immediately to mind - had UVA very high on the list, only to commit to Michigan in the end. So Vincent Croce is a big, big deal: this is where UVA first struck back.
Croce comes from a high school similar to DeMatha - in fact, Good Counsel is one of their bigger rivals. Being one of the top defenders at a high-profile school means Croce had a big pile of offers from a lot of the schools that you want to be able to beat for his services. By May he had it narrowed down to UVA, Michigan, and strangely, Michigan State; in the end, the difference was Mike London. Croce committed on Junior Day together with Marco Jones.
You can look and look and you'd have a really hard time finding another recruit that the three services agree so closely on. Croce is a high three-star sort and in the top 40 defensive tackles. Scout and ESPN are in agreement that his intensity is top-notch - ESPN notes that he played his junior year with not one, but two torn-up knees - but that he needs to work on a lot of technique stuff, pad level and "moves" being the two they mention. His highlights show him making plays from end, tackle, and even linebacker, and his athleticism is such that he plays not on the offensive line, like most prospects, but tight end. And he's got brains to match: Croce is a 4.0 student, at a place like Good Counsel no less.
Good Counsel would be a great place to get a pipeline going, by the way; this is the second year in a row UVA has secured a commitment from there. Last year we picked up E.J. Scott, who's just begun his freshman year, and fellow DT Nick Jenkins is a Good Counsel grad too.
Croce's future involves a very likely redshirt, even though the DT depth chart is so thin at the moment. Playing so many positions in high school doesn't really give him what he needs to really learn a position. Even though "pass rush moves" might not be the most important thing at DT, "pad level" will be, and the recruiting services are so much in agreement that you have to believe what they say. But once Croce gets the hang of things, look out. He and David Dean have the potential to make a really formidable pair of tackles.
Position: DT
Hometown: New Market, MD
School: Our Lady of Good Counsel
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 260
ESPN: 79; three stars; #34 DT
Rivals: 5.7; three stars; #36 DT; MD #9
Scout: three stars; #37 DT
Other offers: Michigan, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Stanford, North Carolina, West Virginia, Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers, Purdue, Maryland, Louisville, Cincinnati, Duke, Central Florida
Since Rich Rodriguez took over as head coach at Michigan, the Wolverines' recruiting grounds have suddenly been overlapping UVA's a lot more than in the past, and it's the kind of competition UVA can ill afford. Several of UVA's top targets - Anthony LaLota and Kenny Wilkins are two that come immediately to mind - had UVA very high on the list, only to commit to Michigan in the end. So Vincent Croce is a big, big deal: this is where UVA first struck back.
Croce comes from a high school similar to DeMatha - in fact, Good Counsel is one of their bigger rivals. Being one of the top defenders at a high-profile school means Croce had a big pile of offers from a lot of the schools that you want to be able to beat for his services. By May he had it narrowed down to UVA, Michigan, and strangely, Michigan State; in the end, the difference was Mike London. Croce committed on Junior Day together with Marco Jones.
You can look and look and you'd have a really hard time finding another recruit that the three services agree so closely on. Croce is a high three-star sort and in the top 40 defensive tackles. Scout and ESPN are in agreement that his intensity is top-notch - ESPN notes that he played his junior year with not one, but two torn-up knees - but that he needs to work on a lot of technique stuff, pad level and "moves" being the two they mention. His highlights show him making plays from end, tackle, and even linebacker, and his athleticism is such that he plays not on the offensive line, like most prospects, but tight end. And he's got brains to match: Croce is a 4.0 student, at a place like Good Counsel no less.
Good Counsel would be a great place to get a pipeline going, by the way; this is the second year in a row UVA has secured a commitment from there. Last year we picked up E.J. Scott, who's just begun his freshman year, and fellow DT Nick Jenkins is a Good Counsel grad too.
Croce's future involves a very likely redshirt, even though the DT depth chart is so thin at the moment. Playing so many positions in high school doesn't really give him what he needs to really learn a position. Even though "pass rush moves" might not be the most important thing at DT, "pad level" will be, and the recruiting services are so much in agreement that you have to believe what they say. But once Croce gets the hang of things, look out. He and David Dean have the potential to make a really formidable pair of tackles.
Sunday, August 8, 2010
season preview: Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Schedule:
9/4: South Carolina State
9/11: @ Kansas
9/18: @ North Carolina
9/25: NC State
10/2: @ Wake Forest
10/9: Virginia
10/16: Middle Tennessee
10/23: @ Clemson
10/30: BYE
11/4: @ Virginia Tech (Thu.)
11/13: Miami
11/20: Duke
11/27: @ Georgia
Skip: Boston College, Florida State, Maryland
Projected starters:
QB: Joshua Nesbitt (Sr.)
BB: Anthony Allen (5Sr.)
AB: Roddy Jones (rJr.)
AB: Embry Peeples (Jr.)
WR: Tyler Melton (Jr.)
WR: Stephen Hill (So.)
LT: Nick Claytor (rJr.)
LG: Nick McRae (rSo.)
C: Sean Bedford (5Sr.)
RG: Omoregie Uzzi (rSo.)
RT: Austin Barrick (5Sr.)
DE: Izaan Cross (So.)
NT: Ben Anderson (5Sr.)
DE: Jason Peters (rJr.)
OLB: Anthony Barnes (5Sr.)
ILB: Brad Jefferson (Sr.)
ILB: Brandon Watts (rFr.)
OLB: Anthony Egbuniwe (5Sr.)
CB: Mario Butler (Sr.)
CB: Dominique Reese (5Sr.)
S: Mario Edwards (5Sr.)
S: Jerrard Tarrant (rJr.)
K: Scott Blair (Sr.)
P: Chandler Anderson (rJr.)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Coach: Paul Johnson (3rd season)
Media prediction: 3rd, Coastal Division
All-ACC:
2009 1st team: QB Josh Nesbitt, RB Jonathan Dwyer, WR Demaryius Thomas, G Cord Howard, C Sean Bedford, DE Derrick Morgan
2009 2nd team: S Morgan Burnett
2009 HM: LB Brad Jefferson
2010 preseason: C Sean Bedford
(Italics indicate returning player.)
In both of his seasons as Georgia Tech's coach, Paul Johnson has been the ACC Coach of the Year. Just on principle, it's not likely the media will want to give it to him again, but if Georgia Tech repeats as Coastal champions, this might be the one year of his three that he's most deserving. GT has lost a lot of talent from last year, but since when has Johnson been the kind of coach that depends on superior talent for his success? Adding to the subplot is the switch to the 3-4 defense brought about by the hiring of Al Groh as defensive coordinator - a move that has a (rather overly bitter, I think) portion of the UVA fanbase elevating the GT game to the level of the one against the other Tech in terms of importance.
OFFENSE
Almost half of the ACC 1st team offense in 2009 was comprised of Yellow Jackets, so dominant was the GT offense. Only Nevada outgained GT on the ground nationally, and despite (or because of) the heavily run-oriented offense, GT led the country in yards per passing attempt at 10.6 - the only offense to reach double digits. But most of that talent has moved on - except, notably, for senior quarterback Joshua Nesbitt. It'll be tough for Nesbitt to improve on last season - named the top quarterback in the ACC while leading his team to a conference championship - but improving his completion percentage of 46.3% would be a step in that direction.
The two other big yardage-gainers are going to have to be replaced, though. Anthony Allen gets a promotion to B-back to replace the graduated Jonathan Dwyer. Roddy Jones returns at A-back, and though Embry Peeples is new to the starting gig, he didn't see much of a difference in 2009 playing time between himself and the two starters there. If the offensive line is up to snuff, the running game will be its usual dominant self. Expect very little drop in production on the ground, if any.
Demaryius Thomas is going to be tougher to replace. Tall and immensely productive, as well as a tenacious blocker, Thomas dominated the GT receiving game. He averaged 25 yards a catch and was responsible for two-thirds of the passing game's output. Taking his place in the lineup is the even taller - but much lankier - Stephen Hill. There are high hopes for Hill, but neither he nor Tyler Melton is the blocker that Thomas was. Hill will step into Thomas's role as the featured deep receiver and go-to guy for end zone fade routes, but at least early on, expect the passes to be a little more evenly distributed than in the past.
The offensive line has to replace three starters, but the most important - center Sean Bedford - returns for a fifth season. Bedford has risen from walk-on defensive lineman to Outland Trophy watch-lister and is the #1 factor in GT's ability to grind you down, five yards at a time. Austin Barrick is an athletic enough tackle that Paul Johnson even briefly considered him at A-back early in his tenure. Most of the rest of the line, though, has seen relatively little game action, and this unit will need to use its fairly easy early schedule to gel and get ready for the bigger games later in the season.
DEFENSE
Al Groh coaches this unit. There, that's out of the way. As you know, Groh is a 3-4 guy, and that's what he's brought to Georgia Tech. One of the first things that means is that two starting defensive tackles get squeezed into one slot. It's the unfortunate way things work out that DT is where most of the starting experience lies when it comes to returning players. Tech has to figure out how to get playing time for returning DT starters Ben Anderson and Logan Walls, while at the same time breaking in two new defensive ends.
All-conference end Derrick Morgan is off to the NFL, but what of the other 2009 starter at DE? In usual Al Groh fashion, Anthony Egbuniwe moves to OLB, where he'll play the pass-rushing linebacker role so familiar to UVA fans, and therefore get to keep a hand on the ground. Groh also has the heady ILB he likes in Brad Jefferson, who's entering his third season as a starter in the middle. Jefferson was the leading tackler in 2009 with 95, and Groh's system should help him easily reach triple digits.
The secondary loses all-star safety Morgan Burnett, who was Tech's all-over-the-field type in 2009. But the blow is softened by the return of CB Mario Butler and Jerrard Tarrant, each of whom picked off a pair of passes in 2009. Tarrant moves to safety this year, switching places with Dominique Reese, who started six games at safety last year. GT was one of the weaker pass defenses in the conference last year and gave up a ton of touchdowns through the air, and while there's a lot of experience here, there's a lot of room for improvement, too.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Chandler Anderson is a strong-legged punter, averaging over 42 yards, but Scott Blair's leg is neither exceptionally accurate nor exceptionally strong. His terrific performance against Clemson in the ACCCG was absolutely crucial, but he also missed some closer ones in some of Tech's closer losses. Sophomore Orwin Smith set a GT record for kick return yardage and should return in that role, as should Jerrard Tarrant for punt returns. GT had one of the conference's best punt coverage units in 2009 but clearly the worst kick coverage squad, the only conference team to allow two KR touchdowns.
OUTLOOK
Because of all the talent Tech has to replace on offense, the media figures GT will be leapfrogged this year by VT and Miami. I'm not so sure. Paul Johnson made his name by winning with less talent, and he hired the one ACC coach whose defense was best able to stop his old-school offensive system. If there's any difficulty to be overcome this year, it's probably that which results from a relatively earthshaking transition on defense. But GT's defense was nothing special in 2009, and Groh is now left free to focus entirely on what he does best. I think the defense will improve, if even only slightly, and if the offense takes any steps backwards, it won't be much. There's a strong likelihood GT will be 7-0 going into their rematch with Clemson. That's followed by a murderous November, but the easy early season means GT is likely to control their own destiny as they go. I'm not betting against them.
Schedule:
9/4: South Carolina State
9/11: @ Kansas
9/18: @ North Carolina
9/25: NC State
10/2: @ Wake Forest
10/9: Virginia
10/16: Middle Tennessee
10/23: @ Clemson
10/30: BYE
11/4: @ Virginia Tech (Thu.)
11/13: Miami
11/20: Duke
11/27: @ Georgia
Skip: Boston College, Florida State, Maryland
Projected starters:
QB: Joshua Nesbitt (Sr.)
BB: Anthony Allen (5Sr.)
AB: Roddy Jones (rJr.)
AB: Embry Peeples (Jr.)
WR: Tyler Melton (Jr.)
WR: Stephen Hill (So.)
LT: Nick Claytor (rJr.)
LG: Nick McRae (rSo.)
C: Sean Bedford (5Sr.)
RG: Omoregie Uzzi (rSo.)
RT: Austin Barrick (5Sr.)
DE: Izaan Cross (So.)
NT: Ben Anderson (5Sr.)
DE: Jason Peters (rJr.)
OLB: Anthony Barnes (5Sr.)
ILB: Brad Jefferson (Sr.)
ILB: Brandon Watts (rFr.)
OLB: Anthony Egbuniwe (5Sr.)
CB: Mario Butler (Sr.)
CB: Dominique Reese (5Sr.)
S: Mario Edwards (5Sr.)
S: Jerrard Tarrant (rJr.)
K: Scott Blair (Sr.)
P: Chandler Anderson (rJr.)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Coach: Paul Johnson (3rd season)
Media prediction: 3rd, Coastal Division
All-ACC:
2009 1st team: QB Josh Nesbitt, RB Jonathan Dwyer, WR Demaryius Thomas, G Cord Howard, C Sean Bedford, DE Derrick Morgan
2009 2nd team: S Morgan Burnett
2009 HM: LB Brad Jefferson
2010 preseason: C Sean Bedford
(Italics indicate returning player.)
In both of his seasons as Georgia Tech's coach, Paul Johnson has been the ACC Coach of the Year. Just on principle, it's not likely the media will want to give it to him again, but if Georgia Tech repeats as Coastal champions, this might be the one year of his three that he's most deserving. GT has lost a lot of talent from last year, but since when has Johnson been the kind of coach that depends on superior talent for his success? Adding to the subplot is the switch to the 3-4 defense brought about by the hiring of Al Groh as defensive coordinator - a move that has a (rather overly bitter, I think) portion of the UVA fanbase elevating the GT game to the level of the one against the other Tech in terms of importance.
OFFENSE
Almost half of the ACC 1st team offense in 2009 was comprised of Yellow Jackets, so dominant was the GT offense. Only Nevada outgained GT on the ground nationally, and despite (or because of) the heavily run-oriented offense, GT led the country in yards per passing attempt at 10.6 - the only offense to reach double digits. But most of that talent has moved on - except, notably, for senior quarterback Joshua Nesbitt. It'll be tough for Nesbitt to improve on last season - named the top quarterback in the ACC while leading his team to a conference championship - but improving his completion percentage of 46.3% would be a step in that direction.
The two other big yardage-gainers are going to have to be replaced, though. Anthony Allen gets a promotion to B-back to replace the graduated Jonathan Dwyer. Roddy Jones returns at A-back, and though Embry Peeples is new to the starting gig, he didn't see much of a difference in 2009 playing time between himself and the two starters there. If the offensive line is up to snuff, the running game will be its usual dominant self. Expect very little drop in production on the ground, if any.
Demaryius Thomas is going to be tougher to replace. Tall and immensely productive, as well as a tenacious blocker, Thomas dominated the GT receiving game. He averaged 25 yards a catch and was responsible for two-thirds of the passing game's output. Taking his place in the lineup is the even taller - but much lankier - Stephen Hill. There are high hopes for Hill, but neither he nor Tyler Melton is the blocker that Thomas was. Hill will step into Thomas's role as the featured deep receiver and go-to guy for end zone fade routes, but at least early on, expect the passes to be a little more evenly distributed than in the past.
The offensive line has to replace three starters, but the most important - center Sean Bedford - returns for a fifth season. Bedford has risen from walk-on defensive lineman to Outland Trophy watch-lister and is the #1 factor in GT's ability to grind you down, five yards at a time. Austin Barrick is an athletic enough tackle that Paul Johnson even briefly considered him at A-back early in his tenure. Most of the rest of the line, though, has seen relatively little game action, and this unit will need to use its fairly easy early schedule to gel and get ready for the bigger games later in the season.
DEFENSE
Al Groh coaches this unit. There, that's out of the way. As you know, Groh is a 3-4 guy, and that's what he's brought to Georgia Tech. One of the first things that means is that two starting defensive tackles get squeezed into one slot. It's the unfortunate way things work out that DT is where most of the starting experience lies when it comes to returning players. Tech has to figure out how to get playing time for returning DT starters Ben Anderson and Logan Walls, while at the same time breaking in two new defensive ends.
All-conference end Derrick Morgan is off to the NFL, but what of the other 2009 starter at DE? In usual Al Groh fashion, Anthony Egbuniwe moves to OLB, where he'll play the pass-rushing linebacker role so familiar to UVA fans, and therefore get to keep a hand on the ground. Groh also has the heady ILB he likes in Brad Jefferson, who's entering his third season as a starter in the middle. Jefferson was the leading tackler in 2009 with 95, and Groh's system should help him easily reach triple digits.
The secondary loses all-star safety Morgan Burnett, who was Tech's all-over-the-field type in 2009. But the blow is softened by the return of CB Mario Butler and Jerrard Tarrant, each of whom picked off a pair of passes in 2009. Tarrant moves to safety this year, switching places with Dominique Reese, who started six games at safety last year. GT was one of the weaker pass defenses in the conference last year and gave up a ton of touchdowns through the air, and while there's a lot of experience here, there's a lot of room for improvement, too.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Chandler Anderson is a strong-legged punter, averaging over 42 yards, but Scott Blair's leg is neither exceptionally accurate nor exceptionally strong. His terrific performance against Clemson in the ACCCG was absolutely crucial, but he also missed some closer ones in some of Tech's closer losses. Sophomore Orwin Smith set a GT record for kick return yardage and should return in that role, as should Jerrard Tarrant for punt returns. GT had one of the conference's best punt coverage units in 2009 but clearly the worst kick coverage squad, the only conference team to allow two KR touchdowns.
OUTLOOK
Because of all the talent Tech has to replace on offense, the media figures GT will be leapfrogged this year by VT and Miami. I'm not so sure. Paul Johnson made his name by winning with less talent, and he hired the one ACC coach whose defense was best able to stop his old-school offensive system. If there's any difficulty to be overcome this year, it's probably that which results from a relatively earthshaking transition on defense. But GT's defense was nothing special in 2009, and Groh is now left free to focus entirely on what he does best. I think the defense will improve, if even only slightly, and if the offense takes any steps backwards, it won't be much. There's a strong likelihood GT will be 7-0 going into their rematch with Clemson. That's followed by a murderous November, but the easy early season means GT is likely to control their own destiny as they go. I'm not betting against them.
Friday, August 6, 2010
following recruiting part 2: do it right
Last week I gave you the problem - that being the things people say about recruiting that irritate me - but nobody likes that guy who's got all kinds of problems and no solutions, right? This week, follow along and you too can say intelligent-sounding things when you spout off about recruiting on your favorite message board.
Presumably, you are like me, and aren't an actual guru who makes actual money off of recruiting. You probably don't hang out at recruiting camps or make it your business to scout everyone that your favorite school has offered. You might subscribe to a service or two, but basically, you rely on what you read on the webtubez and not your finely honed scout's eye. How then do you know who or what to get excited about? Because you're going to get excited, but you sound silly when it's about the wrong thing. Follow the rules:
- Rule 1: Offers usually trump ratings, but they're tricky.
When you hear that UVA is after a particular prospect, the first thing you should ask if you want to find out about him is, "Who else has offered?" When it comes to talent evaluation, it only makes sense that you should trust the people whose jobs are on the line to get it right rather than the college versions of Mel Kiper. Kiper will have that job for as long as he wants it no matter how many times he gets it wrong; the same holds true for the recruiting gurus. Ratings are useful, but in normal cases, trust the offer list more.
Case in point #1: Clint Sintim. A middling-low-ish three star recruit to Rivals and Scout, Sintim nevertheless chose UVA over offers from VT, Ohio State, and Tennessee and went on to be a top-notch linebacker and second-round pick.
Case in point #2: Jeremiah Mathis. Mathis was handed a lousy two stars by the services - the ones that even bothered to rate him. But he had five other offers - including Clemson and Kansas State - and stacked up well enough in that department with other DEs in the class. His appearance on the two-deep coming out of spring is largely a function of the lack of depth at DE, but there are other, higher-rated DEs in his class.
Usually the offers and the ratings just about agree with each other. I mean, they should, really. But if the player has a low rating but a good list of offers, it's time to ignore the ratings.
That's not to say that the offers are everything. Every prospect is different. You should be wary, for starters, of verbal offers, because those aren't really offers. Lots of times coaches will verbally offer a prospect and never send the letter, and that means there's no offer. And offers from certain coaches should be taken with a grain of salt. Michael Strauss had an "offer" from Alabama, but that doesn't jive with his other ones, and I just bet that if Strauss had called up Nick Saban and committed, it wouldn't have stuck. Saban is skeezy like that.
Lastly, prospects that commit early don't have the offers that the other ones do. Chris Long didn't have a single one besides UVA because he committed like 18 months before he signed, and his dad's Howie and when they said they were shutting it down, they meant it.
- Rule 2: Highlights can help you learn about a player's style, but usually not his talent.
Look, they're highlights for a reason. They're the best of the best plays. I said this before: if the player couldn't routinely outrun, outjump, and outmuscle his competition, he wouldn't be a prospect. So don't go watching his highlight video and then come back thinking "what a stud."
Instead, watch the videos to find out how he plays. A pet peeve of mine is players that try to juke-jive their way past an opponent, only to get tackled from behind. It's third-and-six, you catch the ball at five yards, try to make a Sportscenter move, and 99 times out of 100 the result is 4th-and-1, not the touchdown you think you're going to get. I prefer a ballcarrier who just gets the yardage that's in front of them, and that's why I liked Kevin Royal's highlight video. He would do exactly that. So guess who wasn't surprised in the slightest when Royal was moved to tight end? Logical, no?
- Rule 3: This is UVA, so certain competing offers mean more than others.
VT and Maryland, and to a slightly lesser degree UNC, are our biggest competition for recruits, so any time we offer and so do they, that's someone we really want. Obviously.
But we also butt heads a lot with certain other schools because of our academic standing. No doubt you've figured out that UVA makes demands of its football players that they actually make some semblance of academic effort while enrolled, in contrast to most of the rest of the country, and that we lose players every year because of it. How can you tell who's in danger of having to spend a year in the future at PVCC to catch up, or else transfer? Answer: you can't, but you can usually tell who won't have to. They're the ones with Duke, Stanford, and/or Vanderbilt offers.
See, those three schools are the ones most like us: they permit their academics to be a bit of a drag on the football team. There are other top academic schools we compete with for recruits - Michigan and UNC come to mind - but in general they don't have these concerns at the same level we do. If a kid has offers from one or more of the above schools - Boston College tends to be on that list as well, as would Northwestern if we overlapped recruiting areas at all - they're practically a rock-solid lock not to wash out academically. You can look it up. And not to cast aspersions on certain players who had academic issues and worked their asses off to get back to UVA, but you can look that up, too: they weren't offered by the academic-type schools.
- Rule 4: Most prospects play both sides of the ball.
Wide receivers usually also play defensive back, and vice versa. Offensive linemen usually also play defensive line, and vice versa. Linebackers might play tight end, too. Quarterbacks: unless they're the drop-back type, might also play DB. Not only that, but skill position guys usually run track, and just about any position on the field other than punter might be on the basketball team. This kind of versatility isn't much proof of above-and-beyond athleticism, except at the high school level. Don't get excited.
- Rule 5: They all say they're looking for academics in a school.
They've been taught to. It'll of course give UVA an edge if they really, really mean it, but there are ways of telling if they mean it, like if they're also considering Stanford, in which case we don't have that much of an edge. So basically, "I'm looking for academics" is a statement you should ignore.
And besides, in our more honest moments we have to admit that schools like Tech and Maryland are actually not bad schools, and to kids coming from certain high schools in certain neighborhoods, they look pretty damn good. Some kids say they're looking for good academics, and they mean it, and then they choose Tech and we decide they didn't mean it. Well, they did, but Tech looks a heck of a lot better than their high school that might not have such a great success rate in sending kids to college.
- Rule 6: A recruit's favorite school is the one he just left.
If a kid goes on a visit to a school, and when he goes home and that school is not "the leader" or in a group of leaders, then that school has been effectively eliminated. Conversely, if he visits UVA and declares UVA his leader, that's nice, but it's not something to write home about. But - if he visits UNC, or Maryland, or whoever, and still declares UVA his leader, that is worth paying attention to. That's the kind of good news that leads to a commitment down the road. If he visits UVA and rattles off a list of leaders that doesn't include UVA, or says something like, "I had a really good visit, my leaders are X, Y, and Z, and UVA after that," it's time to move on. That's his media-friendly way of dropping UVA.
Now you're smart. And if you didn't read Part 1, go back and do so, and I'll know who my readers are by the people who don't say that stuff any more.
Presumably, you are like me, and aren't an actual guru who makes actual money off of recruiting. You probably don't hang out at recruiting camps or make it your business to scout everyone that your favorite school has offered. You might subscribe to a service or two, but basically, you rely on what you read on the webtubez and not your finely honed scout's eye. How then do you know who or what to get excited about? Because you're going to get excited, but you sound silly when it's about the wrong thing. Follow the rules:
- Rule 1: Offers usually trump ratings, but they're tricky.
When you hear that UVA is after a particular prospect, the first thing you should ask if you want to find out about him is, "Who else has offered?" When it comes to talent evaluation, it only makes sense that you should trust the people whose jobs are on the line to get it right rather than the college versions of Mel Kiper. Kiper will have that job for as long as he wants it no matter how many times he gets it wrong; the same holds true for the recruiting gurus. Ratings are useful, but in normal cases, trust the offer list more.
Case in point #1: Clint Sintim. A middling-low-ish three star recruit to Rivals and Scout, Sintim nevertheless chose UVA over offers from VT, Ohio State, and Tennessee and went on to be a top-notch linebacker and second-round pick.
Case in point #2: Jeremiah Mathis. Mathis was handed a lousy two stars by the services - the ones that even bothered to rate him. But he had five other offers - including Clemson and Kansas State - and stacked up well enough in that department with other DEs in the class. His appearance on the two-deep coming out of spring is largely a function of the lack of depth at DE, but there are other, higher-rated DEs in his class.
Usually the offers and the ratings just about agree with each other. I mean, they should, really. But if the player has a low rating but a good list of offers, it's time to ignore the ratings.
That's not to say that the offers are everything. Every prospect is different. You should be wary, for starters, of verbal offers, because those aren't really offers. Lots of times coaches will verbally offer a prospect and never send the letter, and that means there's no offer. And offers from certain coaches should be taken with a grain of salt. Michael Strauss had an "offer" from Alabama, but that doesn't jive with his other ones, and I just bet that if Strauss had called up Nick Saban and committed, it wouldn't have stuck. Saban is skeezy like that.
Lastly, prospects that commit early don't have the offers that the other ones do. Chris Long didn't have a single one besides UVA because he committed like 18 months before he signed, and his dad's Howie and when they said they were shutting it down, they meant it.
- Rule 2: Highlights can help you learn about a player's style, but usually not his talent.
Look, they're highlights for a reason. They're the best of the best plays. I said this before: if the player couldn't routinely outrun, outjump, and outmuscle his competition, he wouldn't be a prospect. So don't go watching his highlight video and then come back thinking "what a stud."
Instead, watch the videos to find out how he plays. A pet peeve of mine is players that try to juke-jive their way past an opponent, only to get tackled from behind. It's third-and-six, you catch the ball at five yards, try to make a Sportscenter move, and 99 times out of 100 the result is 4th-and-1, not the touchdown you think you're going to get. I prefer a ballcarrier who just gets the yardage that's in front of them, and that's why I liked Kevin Royal's highlight video. He would do exactly that. So guess who wasn't surprised in the slightest when Royal was moved to tight end? Logical, no?
- Rule 3: This is UVA, so certain competing offers mean more than others.
VT and Maryland, and to a slightly lesser degree UNC, are our biggest competition for recruits, so any time we offer and so do they, that's someone we really want. Obviously.
But we also butt heads a lot with certain other schools because of our academic standing. No doubt you've figured out that UVA makes demands of its football players that they actually make some semblance of academic effort while enrolled, in contrast to most of the rest of the country, and that we lose players every year because of it. How can you tell who's in danger of having to spend a year in the future at PVCC to catch up, or else transfer? Answer: you can't, but you can usually tell who won't have to. They're the ones with Duke, Stanford, and/or Vanderbilt offers.
See, those three schools are the ones most like us: they permit their academics to be a bit of a drag on the football team. There are other top academic schools we compete with for recruits - Michigan and UNC come to mind - but in general they don't have these concerns at the same level we do. If a kid has offers from one or more of the above schools - Boston College tends to be on that list as well, as would Northwestern if we overlapped recruiting areas at all - they're practically a rock-solid lock not to wash out academically. You can look it up. And not to cast aspersions on certain players who had academic issues and worked their asses off to get back to UVA, but you can look that up, too: they weren't offered by the academic-type schools.
- Rule 4: Most prospects play both sides of the ball.
Wide receivers usually also play defensive back, and vice versa. Offensive linemen usually also play defensive line, and vice versa. Linebackers might play tight end, too. Quarterbacks: unless they're the drop-back type, might also play DB. Not only that, but skill position guys usually run track, and just about any position on the field other than punter might be on the basketball team. This kind of versatility isn't much proof of above-and-beyond athleticism, except at the high school level. Don't get excited.
- Rule 5: They all say they're looking for academics in a school.
They've been taught to. It'll of course give UVA an edge if they really, really mean it, but there are ways of telling if they mean it, like if they're also considering Stanford, in which case we don't have that much of an edge. So basically, "I'm looking for academics" is a statement you should ignore.
And besides, in our more honest moments we have to admit that schools like Tech and Maryland are actually not bad schools, and to kids coming from certain high schools in certain neighborhoods, they look pretty damn good. Some kids say they're looking for good academics, and they mean it, and then they choose Tech and we decide they didn't mean it. Well, they did, but Tech looks a heck of a lot better than their high school that might not have such a great success rate in sending kids to college.
- Rule 6: A recruit's favorite school is the one he just left.
If a kid goes on a visit to a school, and when he goes home and that school is not "the leader" or in a group of leaders, then that school has been effectively eliminated. Conversely, if he visits UVA and declares UVA his leader, that's nice, but it's not something to write home about. But - if he visits UNC, or Maryland, or whoever, and still declares UVA his leader, that is worth paying attention to. That's the kind of good news that leads to a commitment down the road. If he visits UVA and rattles off a list of leaders that doesn't include UVA, or says something like, "I had a really good visit, my leaders are X, Y, and Z, and UVA after that," it's time to move on. That's his media-friendly way of dropping UVA.
Now you're smart. And if you didn't read Part 1, go back and do so, and I'll know who my readers are by the people who don't say that stuff any more.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
season preview: Florida State
Florida State Seminoles
Schedule:
9/4: Samford
9/11: @Oklahoma
9/18: Brigham Young
9/25: Wake Forest
10/2: @ Virginia
10/9: @ Miami
10/16: Boston College
10/23: BYE
10/28: @ NC State (Thursday)
11/6: North Carolina
11/13: Clemson
11/20: @ Maryland
11/27: Florida
Skip: Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
Projected starters:
QB: Christian Ponder (5Sr.)
RB: Chris Thompson (So.)
FB: Lonnie Pryor (So.)
WR: Bert Reed (rJr.)
WR: Jarmon Fortson (Jr.)
TE: Beau Reliford (Jr.)
LT: Andrew Datko (Jr.)
LG: Rodney Hudson (Sr.)
C: Ryan McMahon (5Sr.)
RG: David Spurlock (Jr.)
RT: Zebrie Sanders (Jr.)
LDE: Markus White (Sr.)
DT: Everett Dawkins (rSo.)
NT: Jacobbi McDaniel (So.)
RDE: Brandon Jenkins (So.)
SLB: Nigel Carr (Jr.)
MLB: Kendall Smith (Sr.)
WLB: Nigel Bradham (Jr.)
CB: Ochuko Jenije (5Sr.)
CB: Greg Reid (So.)
FS: Nick Moody (rSo.)
SS: Terrance Parks (Jr.)
K: Dustin Hopkins (So.)
P: Shawn Powell (Jr.)
Coach: Jimbo Fisher (1st season)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Media prediction: 1st, Atlantic Division
All-ACC:
2009 1st team: G Rodney Hudson
2009 2nd team: LB Dekoda Watson, CB Patrick Robinson
2009 HM: QB Christian Ponder, OT Andrew Datko, KR Greg Reid
2010 preseason: G Rodney Hudson, QB Christian Ponder
(Italics indicate departed player.)
Not seeing Bobby Bowden on the sidelines is going to take some getting used to for Florida State fans, but the transition to Jimbo Fisher should be a smooth one. Still, it's been some time since FSU was the dominant force in the ACC. This season will be interesting in that we get to see whether the Seminoles' stagnation was simply due to having an aging head coach (Bowden is over 80 years old), or if we should simply get used to something in Tallahassee other than the perennial national title contenders of the '90s.
OFFENSE
Florida State is pushing Christian Ponder heavily as a Heisman candidate, but he'll need to break out of his shell a little bit and take another step in his development for that to come to fruition. In 2009, Ponder needed to shake some inconsistency woes from the previous season and did so admirably, completing almost 69% of his passes before a season-ending shoulder injury in early November. As a third-year starting quarterback and a fifth-year senior, Ponder is the focal point of this year's offense.
Having a third-year starting quarterback is something every team would love to have, but it's not uncommon, either. What is uncommon is having a third-year starting offensive line. All five linemen are back for their third year together as a unit, and the left side is where the major-league talent resides. It starts with left guard Rodney Hudson, a likely first-round pick in the 2011 NFL draft. Andrew Datko, the tackle on that side, is another guy who gets some all-conference pub, but the playcaller for the offensive line is the center, and having fifth-year senior Ryan McMahon holding down the job gives FSU a major advantage. McMahon has never failed to start a game for three years and has a chance to finish the season as the Seminoles' record-holder for career starts. And of course, right tackle Zebrie Sanders's patience is legendary.
Jermaine Thomas was last year's leading rusher, but he might have been supplanted by Chris Thompson. Thompson was used sparingly last year and most of his yardage came on his single 49-yard carry against Georgia Tech, but his performance in spring ball leapfrogged him ahead. Thomas himself didn't emerge until later in the season, 60% of his 163 carries coming in just four games, so there is some unsettlement at the running back position that needs to be dealt with. Starting fullback Lonnie Pryor isn't really fullback-sized and figures to be part of the tailback conversation as well.
Last year's leading receiver has graduated, but Bert Reed was just one catch and 19 yards shy of being the leader himself, so there shouldn't be much dropoff outside. FSU traditionally has little trouble filling its receiver slots, and Reed has a golden opportunity to improve on his 710-yard season, perhaps even with a 1,000-yard campaign. Reed is smallish for a receiver, but 6'3" Jarmon Fortson starting opposite him should occupy opposing defenses' taller cornerbacks. Taiwan Easterling's future might lie in baseball, but he's a real threat as well. Look for all three of these players to rack up large numbers, because FSU's offenses traditionally use the tight end and running backs as afterthoughts in the receiving game, and Ponder should have all the time he needs to find one of them.
DEFENSE
This unit definitely does not have the continuity of the offense, but it might be as talented. FSU must completely remake its defensive line and secondary and replace star linebacker Dekoda Watson as well, and there are precious few senior starters. Much is made of the combined 142 starts on the offensive line; the defensive line is the opposite, with just 21 combined starts, and 12 of them belong to senior DE Markus White. After Watson, White had the most TFL on the team with 10.5, so he'll be a crucial part of the transition. On the other side, Brandon Jenkins didn't start a single game last season but still led the team in quarterback hurries, and sophomore DT Jacobbi McDaniel was a five-star recruit and the nation's #15 prospect when he signed in 2009.
As for that new secondary, its reinvention is being led by future superstar Greg Reid. Reid was a fellow five-star in the same class as McDaniel, and as the team's punt returner last year he averaged an incredible 18.4 yards per return. Reid steps into a starting cornerback spot opposite fifth-year senior Ochuko Jenije after apprenticing under first-round pick Patrick Robinson, and despite playing in a reserve role, Reid still grabbed two interceptions in 2009.
Now then, chaps, it's a shame that true freshman linebacker Nigel Terrell can't magically switch places with senior MLB Kendall Smith. For one, Terrell is an outside linebacker, and for two, Smith is a major do-it-all presence in the middle of the field: 85 tackles, 7 for loss, 2 sacks, and a pick highlight his stat line. So why do I prefer Terrell? Because he'd look great on the depth chart next to starting OLB's Nigel Bradham and Nigel Carr. It's the attack of the Nigels, guv. Pip pip.
Anyway, it probably doesn't matter as Carr's season and career are in jeopardy after his arrest on multiple felony counts of auto burglary and assorted other charges. In his place would step Mister Alexander, a top-notch athlete whose career has been thus far derailed by a myriad of injuries. An injury-free Alexander may be a step up from Carr anyway, and on the other side, Bradham is the team's leading tackler from 2009.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Junior punter Shawn Powell has a strong leg, averaging over 41 yards in 2009. Kicker Dustin Hopkins missed a few kicks last year, hitting on 70% of his attempts, but he was a freshman. His consistency should improve. Greg Reid will likely handle the returns again, and he's a threat to take one to the house - far and away the ACC's best punt returner.
OUTLOOK
The combination of a senior quarterback, supremely experienced and talented offensive line, and the usual array of targets should be a lethal one for FSU's opposition. Last year the lack of a consistent running game was a little bit of an Achilles heel, but the O-line is so good that the running backs will be good enough just by association. The receivers aren't Peter Warrick and the backs aren't Warrick Dunn, and that's why you don't see FSU hailed as a national title contender, but they're plenty enough for the division. The defense will need some time to gel, and if it does so early, the Noles will be the favorite in most of their games. Even if the young defense has problems that last all season, the passing game should be more than enough to keep the Noles within striking distance in any game. FSU's nonconference schedule is admirably difficult, but they skip the two Techs and thus have an easy path to success in the conference. This will be a bowl year for FSU, of course, and the Orange is the goal.
Schedule:
9/4: Samford
9/11: @Oklahoma
9/18: Brigham Young
9/25: Wake Forest
10/2: @ Virginia
10/9: @ Miami
10/16: Boston College
10/23: BYE
10/28: @ NC State (Thursday)
11/6: North Carolina
11/13: Clemson
11/20: @ Maryland
11/27: Florida
Skip: Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
Projected starters:
QB: Christian Ponder (5Sr.)
RB: Chris Thompson (So.)
FB: Lonnie Pryor (So.)
WR: Bert Reed (rJr.)
WR: Jarmon Fortson (Jr.)
TE: Beau Reliford (Jr.)
LT: Andrew Datko (Jr.)
LG: Rodney Hudson (Sr.)
C: Ryan McMahon (5Sr.)
RG: David Spurlock (Jr.)
RT: Zebrie Sanders (Jr.)
LDE: Markus White (Sr.)
DT: Everett Dawkins (rSo.)
NT: Jacobbi McDaniel (So.)
RDE: Brandon Jenkins (So.)
SLB: Nigel Carr (Jr.)
MLB: Kendall Smith (Sr.)
WLB: Nigel Bradham (Jr.)
CB: Ochuko Jenije (5Sr.)
CB: Greg Reid (So.)
FS: Nick Moody (rSo.)
SS: Terrance Parks (Jr.)
K: Dustin Hopkins (So.)
P: Shawn Powell (Jr.)
Coach: Jimbo Fisher (1st season)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Media prediction: 1st, Atlantic Division
All-ACC:
2009 1st team: G Rodney Hudson
2009 2nd team: LB Dekoda Watson, CB Patrick Robinson
2009 HM: QB Christian Ponder, OT Andrew Datko, KR Greg Reid
2010 preseason: G Rodney Hudson, QB Christian Ponder
(Italics indicate departed player.)
Not seeing Bobby Bowden on the sidelines is going to take some getting used to for Florida State fans, but the transition to Jimbo Fisher should be a smooth one. Still, it's been some time since FSU was the dominant force in the ACC. This season will be interesting in that we get to see whether the Seminoles' stagnation was simply due to having an aging head coach (Bowden is over 80 years old), or if we should simply get used to something in Tallahassee other than the perennial national title contenders of the '90s.
OFFENSE
Florida State is pushing Christian Ponder heavily as a Heisman candidate, but he'll need to break out of his shell a little bit and take another step in his development for that to come to fruition. In 2009, Ponder needed to shake some inconsistency woes from the previous season and did so admirably, completing almost 69% of his passes before a season-ending shoulder injury in early November. As a third-year starting quarterback and a fifth-year senior, Ponder is the focal point of this year's offense.
Having a third-year starting quarterback is something every team would love to have, but it's not uncommon, either. What is uncommon is having a third-year starting offensive line. All five linemen are back for their third year together as a unit, and the left side is where the major-league talent resides. It starts with left guard Rodney Hudson, a likely first-round pick in the 2011 NFL draft. Andrew Datko, the tackle on that side, is another guy who gets some all-conference pub, but the playcaller for the offensive line is the center, and having fifth-year senior Ryan McMahon holding down the job gives FSU a major advantage. McMahon has never failed to start a game for three years and has a chance to finish the season as the Seminoles' record-holder for career starts. And of course, right tackle Zebrie Sanders's patience is legendary.
Jermaine Thomas was last year's leading rusher, but he might have been supplanted by Chris Thompson. Thompson was used sparingly last year and most of his yardage came on his single 49-yard carry against Georgia Tech, but his performance in spring ball leapfrogged him ahead. Thomas himself didn't emerge until later in the season, 60% of his 163 carries coming in just four games, so there is some unsettlement at the running back position that needs to be dealt with. Starting fullback Lonnie Pryor isn't really fullback-sized and figures to be part of the tailback conversation as well.
Last year's leading receiver has graduated, but Bert Reed was just one catch and 19 yards shy of being the leader himself, so there shouldn't be much dropoff outside. FSU traditionally has little trouble filling its receiver slots, and Reed has a golden opportunity to improve on his 710-yard season, perhaps even with a 1,000-yard campaign. Reed is smallish for a receiver, but 6'3" Jarmon Fortson starting opposite him should occupy opposing defenses' taller cornerbacks. Taiwan Easterling's future might lie in baseball, but he's a real threat as well. Look for all three of these players to rack up large numbers, because FSU's offenses traditionally use the tight end and running backs as afterthoughts in the receiving game, and Ponder should have all the time he needs to find one of them.
DEFENSE
This unit definitely does not have the continuity of the offense, but it might be as talented. FSU must completely remake its defensive line and secondary and replace star linebacker Dekoda Watson as well, and there are precious few senior starters. Much is made of the combined 142 starts on the offensive line; the defensive line is the opposite, with just 21 combined starts, and 12 of them belong to senior DE Markus White. After Watson, White had the most TFL on the team with 10.5, so he'll be a crucial part of the transition. On the other side, Brandon Jenkins didn't start a single game last season but still led the team in quarterback hurries, and sophomore DT Jacobbi McDaniel was a five-star recruit and the nation's #15 prospect when he signed in 2009.
As for that new secondary, its reinvention is being led by future superstar Greg Reid. Reid was a fellow five-star in the same class as McDaniel, and as the team's punt returner last year he averaged an incredible 18.4 yards per return. Reid steps into a starting cornerback spot opposite fifth-year senior Ochuko Jenije after apprenticing under first-round pick Patrick Robinson, and despite playing in a reserve role, Reid still grabbed two interceptions in 2009.
Now then, chaps, it's a shame that true freshman linebacker Nigel Terrell can't magically switch places with senior MLB Kendall Smith. For one, Terrell is an outside linebacker, and for two, Smith is a major do-it-all presence in the middle of the field: 85 tackles, 7 for loss, 2 sacks, and a pick highlight his stat line. So why do I prefer Terrell? Because he'd look great on the depth chart next to starting OLB's Nigel Bradham and Nigel Carr. It's the attack of the Nigels, guv. Pip pip.
Anyway, it probably doesn't matter as Carr's season and career are in jeopardy after his arrest on multiple felony counts of auto burglary and assorted other charges. In his place would step Mister Alexander, a top-notch athlete whose career has been thus far derailed by a myriad of injuries. An injury-free Alexander may be a step up from Carr anyway, and on the other side, Bradham is the team's leading tackler from 2009.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Junior punter Shawn Powell has a strong leg, averaging over 41 yards in 2009. Kicker Dustin Hopkins missed a few kicks last year, hitting on 70% of his attempts, but he was a freshman. His consistency should improve. Greg Reid will likely handle the returns again, and he's a threat to take one to the house - far and away the ACC's best punt returner.
OUTLOOK
The combination of a senior quarterback, supremely experienced and talented offensive line, and the usual array of targets should be a lethal one for FSU's opposition. Last year the lack of a consistent running game was a little bit of an Achilles heel, but the O-line is so good that the running backs will be good enough just by association. The receivers aren't Peter Warrick and the backs aren't Warrick Dunn, and that's why you don't see FSU hailed as a national title contender, but they're plenty enough for the division. The defense will need some time to gel, and if it does so early, the Noles will be the favorite in most of their games. Even if the young defense has problems that last all season, the passing game should be more than enough to keep the Noles within striking distance in any game. FSU's nonconference schedule is admirably difficult, but they skip the two Techs and thus have an easy path to success in the conference. This will be a bowl year for FSU, of course, and the Orange is the goal.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
season preview: Duke
Duke Blue Devils 
Schedule:
9/4: Elon
9/11: @ Wake Forest
9/18: Alabama
9/25: Army
10/2: @ Maryland
10/9: BYE
10/16: Miami
10/23: @ Virginia Tech
10/30: @ Navy
11/6: Virginia
11/13: Boston College
11/20: @ Georgia Tech
11/27: North Carolina
Skip: Clemson, Florida State, NC State
Projected starters:
QB: Sean Renfree (rSo.)
RB: Jay Hollingsworth (Jr.)
WR: Donovan Varner (Jr.)
WR: Conner Vernon (So.)
WR: Austin Kelly (Sr.)
TE: Brett Huffman (5Sr.)
LT: Kyle Hill (rJr.)
LG: Brandon Harper (5Sr.)
C: Bryan Morgan (Sr.)
RG: Brian Moore (5Sr.)
RT: Jon Needham (rJr.)
DE: Patrick Egboh (5Sr.)
NG: Charlie Hatcher (rJr.)
DE: Wes Oglesby (5Sr.)
SLB: Damian Thornton (Sr.)
MLB: Kevin Rojas (rFr.)
WLB: Abraham Kromah (5Sr.)
OLB: Adam Banks (Sr.)
CB: Chris Rwabukamba (5Sr.)
CB: Johnny Williams (Jr.)
S: Lee Butler (Jr.)
S: Matt Daniels (Jr.)
K: Will Snyderwine (rJr.)
P: Kevin Jones (5Sr.)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Coach: David Cutcliffe (3rd season)
Media prediction: 5th, Coastal Division
All-ACC:
2009 1st team: WR Donovan Varner
2009 2nd team: QB Thaddeus Lewis, LB Vincent Rey, K Will Snyderwine
2009 HM: DT Vince Oghobaase, CB Leon Wright
2010 preseason: WR Donovan Varner
(Italics indicate departed player.)
Gotta love Tennessee. Furious (and the only people surprised) that Lane Kiffin bolted after just one season, they asked David Cutcliffe to leave Duke after two. Cutcliffe has ties in the region much like Kiffin has in California, so it was a worrisome time for Duke football fans, but it worked out in the end, as Cutcliffe stayed on. So Duke will continue to have a legitimate, actual head coach, but the question is, do they have a legitimate, actual football team?
OFFENSE
It'd be just the way things go that in Cutcliffe's third season, the one in which it's supposed to all come together for a new head coach, he'd have to start over again at quarterback. The impressive Thad Lewis departs, and Sean Renfree takes over at the trigger. Renfree was a big deal when he committed to Duke: Cutcliffe's biggest catch, and he chose Duke over programs like Nebraska, Arizona State, and Stanford. He gave Duke fans a taste of what they hope is the future in mop-up duty during big wins and losses last year, and put up some impressive numbers.
One of the conference's most - if not the most - impressive returning receiver corps is available to ease Renfree's transition. Donovan Varner had a 1,000-yard campaign in 2009, and he combined with Austin Kelly and Conner Vernon for 174 catches and 2,418 yards. This receiving trio is the highlight of the Duke squad and one that most coaches would kill for.
The passing game had better produce yards like that again, because the running game looks to be as poor as it was last year. Duke just didn't run the ball much last season and they were awful when they did. Jay Hollingsworth is listed as the starter for now, but he'll at least have to split carries with Desmond Scott and a few others; Scott was the leading rusher last season with all of 262 yards. Duke might try and work in a newcomer like early enrollee and small-fry extraordinaire Joshua Snead, but results that poor across the running back board generally mean that the offensive line simply can't run-block, so it probably won't matter who's carrying the ball.
It is an experienced offensive line, but they had the luxury last year of protecting a guy who could make a few things happen with his feet. Renfree is a pocket passer, and I'd expect him to take plenty of hits this season. Guard Mitchell Lederman will be pushing Brandon Harper very hard for playing time (Lederman actually has more starting experience), but beyond that, Duke's depth consists mostly of redshirt freshmen. That those freshmen may well be more talented than the current group of starters is a good sign for Duke's future, but bodes ill for 2010.
DEFENSE
But if the offensive line is shaky, the defensive line is a near-disaster. Duke has been a 4-3 team, but this year that may be in name only. Expect a lot of defensive fronts that look suspiciously like a 3-4; in fact, Duke even lists just three starters up front and four starting linebackers. The linebackers are not supremely gifted but there are plenty of playable ones to go around; the defensive line two-deep is stocked with true freshmen. Adam Banks will see a lot of time as what Duke calls the Devil linebacker - an extra outside linebacker that will allow big Damien Thornton to play with a hand on the ground, much like Cam Johnson or Darryl Blackstock once did as OLBs. Charlie Hatcher is a decent player in the middle of Duke's line, adding 7 TFL's to his stat line in 2009 (not bad at all for a DT) but there's little else in the way of talent in the front seven.
The secondary is not much better. Duke only intercepted eight passes last year. And only one player who had any of them returns: Lee Butler, who picked off NC State's meaningless heave into the end zone in the last 30 seconds of Duke's 3-touchdown blowout. That's it for returning interceptions. Johnny Williams, the one new starter in the defensive backfield, is a converted receiver and will play his first college down on defense this season. Matt Daniels is probably the secondary's best player, but as with Hatcher on the defensive line, he's decent at best and not likely to garner much press for all-conference.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Will Snyderwine didn't go into last season as the starting kicker, but Nick Maggio shanked his two tries against Richmond and the job was Snyderwine's for most of the rest of the year. He brought some badly needed consistency to the job, missing just three FG attempts all year. Snyderwine has distance as well as accuracy, nailing a 49-yarder and a 51-yarder late in the season. Kevin Jones is an okay punter. Kick returns were handled by committee last year, with Desmond Scott being the best of the bunch, and Johnny Williams' move to defense probably won't see him give up his punt-return duties.
OUTLOOK
Only as good as the defense, and that's bad. Duke graduated some talent from last year's defense and hasn't yet replaced it. There are talented freshmen on the horizon, but unless there are some surprises in store, they're a little while away yet from upgrading the talent level on defense. Right now the players manning the defensive side of the ball range from "decent" (and those players are precious few) to "unplayable and unwatchable." The offense has the talent at the skill positions to make some noise - Renfree has the potential to make Duke fans forget about Thad Lewis, which is really saying something - but they'll only go as far as the line takes them. Expect some high-scoring games from Duke this season, but more for the opponents than the Blue Devils. Duke gets a real break on the schedule by missing out on both Clemson and FSU, but even so don't expect much more than a three- or four-win season out of them.
Schedule:
9/4: Elon
9/11: @ Wake Forest
9/18: Alabama
9/25: Army
10/2: @ Maryland
10/9: BYE
10/16: Miami
10/23: @ Virginia Tech
10/30: @ Navy
11/6: Virginia
11/13: Boston College
11/20: @ Georgia Tech
11/27: North Carolina
Skip: Clemson, Florida State, NC State
Projected starters:
QB: Sean Renfree (rSo.)
RB: Jay Hollingsworth (Jr.)
WR: Donovan Varner (Jr.)
WR: Conner Vernon (So.)
WR: Austin Kelly (Sr.)
TE: Brett Huffman (5Sr.)
LT: Kyle Hill (rJr.)
LG: Brandon Harper (5Sr.)
C: Bryan Morgan (Sr.)
RG: Brian Moore (5Sr.)
RT: Jon Needham (rJr.)
DE: Patrick Egboh (5Sr.)
NG: Charlie Hatcher (rJr.)
DE: Wes Oglesby (5Sr.)
SLB: Damian Thornton (Sr.)
MLB: Kevin Rojas (rFr.)
WLB: Abraham Kromah (5Sr.)
OLB: Adam Banks (Sr.)
CB: Chris Rwabukamba (5Sr.)
CB: Johnny Williams (Jr.)
S: Lee Butler (Jr.)
S: Matt Daniels (Jr.)
K: Will Snyderwine (rJr.)
P: Kevin Jones (5Sr.)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Coach: David Cutcliffe (3rd season)
Media prediction: 5th, Coastal Division
All-ACC:
2009 1st team: WR Donovan Varner
2009 2nd team: QB Thaddeus Lewis, LB Vincent Rey, K Will Snyderwine
2009 HM: DT Vince Oghobaase, CB Leon Wright
2010 preseason: WR Donovan Varner
(Italics indicate departed player.)
Gotta love Tennessee. Furious (and the only people surprised) that Lane Kiffin bolted after just one season, they asked David Cutcliffe to leave Duke after two. Cutcliffe has ties in the region much like Kiffin has in California, so it was a worrisome time for Duke football fans, but it worked out in the end, as Cutcliffe stayed on. So Duke will continue to have a legitimate, actual head coach, but the question is, do they have a legitimate, actual football team?
OFFENSE
It'd be just the way things go that in Cutcliffe's third season, the one in which it's supposed to all come together for a new head coach, he'd have to start over again at quarterback. The impressive Thad Lewis departs, and Sean Renfree takes over at the trigger. Renfree was a big deal when he committed to Duke: Cutcliffe's biggest catch, and he chose Duke over programs like Nebraska, Arizona State, and Stanford. He gave Duke fans a taste of what they hope is the future in mop-up duty during big wins and losses last year, and put up some impressive numbers.
One of the conference's most - if not the most - impressive returning receiver corps is available to ease Renfree's transition. Donovan Varner had a 1,000-yard campaign in 2009, and he combined with Austin Kelly and Conner Vernon for 174 catches and 2,418 yards. This receiving trio is the highlight of the Duke squad and one that most coaches would kill for.
The passing game had better produce yards like that again, because the running game looks to be as poor as it was last year. Duke just didn't run the ball much last season and they were awful when they did. Jay Hollingsworth is listed as the starter for now, but he'll at least have to split carries with Desmond Scott and a few others; Scott was the leading rusher last season with all of 262 yards. Duke might try and work in a newcomer like early enrollee and small-fry extraordinaire Joshua Snead, but results that poor across the running back board generally mean that the offensive line simply can't run-block, so it probably won't matter who's carrying the ball.
It is an experienced offensive line, but they had the luxury last year of protecting a guy who could make a few things happen with his feet. Renfree is a pocket passer, and I'd expect him to take plenty of hits this season. Guard Mitchell Lederman will be pushing Brandon Harper very hard for playing time (Lederman actually has more starting experience), but beyond that, Duke's depth consists mostly of redshirt freshmen. That those freshmen may well be more talented than the current group of starters is a good sign for Duke's future, but bodes ill for 2010.
DEFENSE
But if the offensive line is shaky, the defensive line is a near-disaster. Duke has been a 4-3 team, but this year that may be in name only. Expect a lot of defensive fronts that look suspiciously like a 3-4; in fact, Duke even lists just three starters up front and four starting linebackers. The linebackers are not supremely gifted but there are plenty of playable ones to go around; the defensive line two-deep is stocked with true freshmen. Adam Banks will see a lot of time as what Duke calls the Devil linebacker - an extra outside linebacker that will allow big Damien Thornton to play with a hand on the ground, much like Cam Johnson or Darryl Blackstock once did as OLBs. Charlie Hatcher is a decent player in the middle of Duke's line, adding 7 TFL's to his stat line in 2009 (not bad at all for a DT) but there's little else in the way of talent in the front seven.
The secondary is not much better. Duke only intercepted eight passes last year. And only one player who had any of them returns: Lee Butler, who picked off NC State's meaningless heave into the end zone in the last 30 seconds of Duke's 3-touchdown blowout. That's it for returning interceptions. Johnny Williams, the one new starter in the defensive backfield, is a converted receiver and will play his first college down on defense this season. Matt Daniels is probably the secondary's best player, but as with Hatcher on the defensive line, he's decent at best and not likely to garner much press for all-conference.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Will Snyderwine didn't go into last season as the starting kicker, but Nick Maggio shanked his two tries against Richmond and the job was Snyderwine's for most of the rest of the year. He brought some badly needed consistency to the job, missing just three FG attempts all year. Snyderwine has distance as well as accuracy, nailing a 49-yarder and a 51-yarder late in the season. Kevin Jones is an okay punter. Kick returns were handled by committee last year, with Desmond Scott being the best of the bunch, and Johnny Williams' move to defense probably won't see him give up his punt-return duties.
OUTLOOK
Only as good as the defense, and that's bad. Duke graduated some talent from last year's defense and hasn't yet replaced it. There are talented freshmen on the horizon, but unless there are some surprises in store, they're a little while away yet from upgrading the talent level on defense. Right now the players manning the defensive side of the ball range from "decent" (and those players are precious few) to "unplayable and unwatchable." The offense has the talent at the skill positions to make some noise - Renfree has the potential to make Duke fans forget about Thad Lewis, which is really saying something - but they'll only go as far as the line takes them. Expect some high-scoring games from Duke this season, but more for the opponents than the Blue Devils. Duke gets a real break on the schedule by missing out on both Clemson and FSU, but even so don't expect much more than a three- or four-win season out of them.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
recruiting board update
Been in need of one of these for a while, and the first official decommitment of the class makes it the right time. Space in the class is still tight, but there's still plenty of intrigue left in the recruiting season as the coaches begin to really focus their efforts on some of the top players left on the wish list. As always, the board can be found here. Updates:
- Added OT Tim Cwalina to orange. Surprise, we have a commitment you never heard of, and for the first time for Mike London in this class, we venture past VA and MD to get it done. Cwalina is from Pittsburgh, though, which is still very much the happy hunting ground.
- Moved S Matt Bailey from orange to decommitted maroon. What was brewing for months and probably was official in Bailey's mind a little while ago is now official to the rest of the world.
- Added TE Rory Anderson to blue.
- Added LB Sean Duggan to yellow.
- Moved Darius Jennings from red to yellow and changed his position to WR, which is what the coaches want him for.
- Removed WR Curt "Spiffy" Evans (top 5 without UVA) and DE Zach Wood (SMU commit.) Both were in the red section anyway.
An interesting note that should put a smile on your face: Former board denizen Michael Cole committed to VT this past week, and Jake Goins will probably do so shortly. Why should VT commits make you happy? Because owing to limited space in the class, both were originially offered grayshirts at VT, meaning Tech wanted them to delay their enrollment and count in the 2012 class instead. I hate the practice and I'm glad UVA doesn't do it, but that's not the point. Neither Goins nor Cole have grayshirt offers any more; they'll be in the '11 class at Tech (and I really don't think it's coincidence that word gets out that Goins' offer is now for regular enrollment and now he's about ready to commit. He'd already be a Hokie, I think, if not for the grayshirt offer, no matter how much he says it doesn't affect his decision.)
Anyway, why the change of heart on the grayshirts? Two reasons. One, London is putting a fright into Beamer. Certain players that might once have been auto-Hokies are making googly-eyes toward Charlottesville all of a sudden. (ahemWatford.) Two, VT is missing out on a lot of their higher priorities. They didn't get Landon Turner, I don't think they'll get Travis Hughes or Demetrious Nicholson, Kyshoen Jarrett dropped them, and I'll tell you this too: Curtis Grant will be a Hoo before he's a Hokie.
Part of this will be due to class size - ours may top 25 and VT's won't be more than 20 - but I tell you what, UVA will have a top-five class in the ACC by February, and VT won't.
- Added OT Tim Cwalina to orange. Surprise, we have a commitment you never heard of, and for the first time for Mike London in this class, we venture past VA and MD to get it done. Cwalina is from Pittsburgh, though, which is still very much the happy hunting ground.
- Moved S Matt Bailey from orange to decommitted maroon. What was brewing for months and probably was official in Bailey's mind a little while ago is now official to the rest of the world.
- Added TE Rory Anderson to blue.
- Added LB Sean Duggan to yellow.
- Moved Darius Jennings from red to yellow and changed his position to WR, which is what the coaches want him for.
- Removed WR Curt "Spiffy" Evans (top 5 without UVA) and DE Zach Wood (SMU commit.) Both were in the red section anyway.
An interesting note that should put a smile on your face: Former board denizen Michael Cole committed to VT this past week, and Jake Goins will probably do so shortly. Why should VT commits make you happy? Because owing to limited space in the class, both were originially offered grayshirts at VT, meaning Tech wanted them to delay their enrollment and count in the 2012 class instead. I hate the practice and I'm glad UVA doesn't do it, but that's not the point. Neither Goins nor Cole have grayshirt offers any more; they'll be in the '11 class at Tech (and I really don't think it's coincidence that word gets out that Goins' offer is now for regular enrollment and now he's about ready to commit. He'd already be a Hokie, I think, if not for the grayshirt offer, no matter how much he says it doesn't affect his decision.)
Anyway, why the change of heart on the grayshirts? Two reasons. One, London is putting a fright into Beamer. Certain players that might once have been auto-Hokies are making googly-eyes toward Charlottesville all of a sudden. (ahemWatford.) Two, VT is missing out on a lot of their higher priorities. They didn't get Landon Turner, I don't think they'll get Travis Hughes or Demetrious Nicholson, Kyshoen Jarrett dropped them, and I'll tell you this too: Curtis Grant will be a Hoo before he's a Hokie.
Part of this will be due to class size - ours may top 25 and VT's won't be more than 20 - but I tell you what, UVA will have a top-five class in the ACC by February, and VT won't.
Monday, August 2, 2010
season preview: Clemson
We truck on with season previews today - alphabetically, as always - by studying the Clemson Tigers. And I should also add that I've been horribly remiss in not yet pointing you in the direction of the ACC & SEC Blog, to which I answered some questions about UVA's prospects this season. For a sneak preview of what I think about the outlook for 2010, read their UVA preview.
Clemson Tigers
Schedule:
9/4: North Texas
9/11: Presbyterian
9/18: @ Auburn
9/25: BYE
10/2: Miami
10/9: @ North Carolina
10/16: Maryland
10/23: Georgia Tech
10/30: @ Boston College
11/6: NC State
11/13: @ Florida State
11/20: @ Wake Forest
11/27: South Carolina
Skip: Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Projected starters:
QB: Kyle Parker (rSo.)
RB: Andre Ellington (rSo.)
WR: Xavier Dye (Sr.)
WR: Terrance Ashe (5Sr.)
WR: Marquan Jones (Jr.)
TE: Dwayne Allen (rSo.)
LT: Chris Hairston (5Sr.)
LG: Mason Cloy (rJr.)
C: Dalton Freeman (rSo.)
RG: Antoine McClain (Jr.)
RT: Landon Walker (rJr.)
DE: Da'Quan Bowers (Jr.)
NG: Brandon Thompson (Jr.)
DT: Jarvis Jenkins (Sr.)
DE: Andre Branch (rJr.)
SLB: Quandon Christian (rFr.)
MLB: Corico Hawkins (So.)
WLB: Brandon Maye (rJr.)
CB: Marcus Gilchrist (Sr.)
CB: Byron Maxwell (5Sr.)
FS: Rashard Hall (rSo.)
SS: DeAndre McDaniel (Sr.)
K: Richard Jackson (5Sr.)
P: Dawson Zimmerman (Jr.)
Coach: Dabo Swinney (3rd year)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Media prediction: 2nd, Atlantic Division
All-ACC:
2009 1st team: TE Michael Palmer, KR C.J. Spiller, S DeAndre McDaniel
2009 2nd team: RB C.J. Spiller, WR Jacoby Ford, OT Chris Hairston, G Thomas Austin, DE Ricky Sapp
2009 HM: DT Jarvis Jenkins, LB Brandon Maye, CB Chris Chancellor, CB Crezdon Butler, S Rashard Hall
2010 preseason: OT Chris Hairston, DT Jarvis Jenkins, S DeAndre McDaniel
(Italics indicate returning player.)
A couple years ago, around this time of year, Clemson was the ACC's "it" team, thanks to all the flashy skill they returned. Everyone ignored all the new starters they had on the offensive line, and since that was Tommy Bowden's last year, you know what happened to that story. This year? The opposite - except for the expectations, which are similar, if less hype-induced.
OFFENSE
The general question hanging around Clemson is how will they replace do-everything C.J. Spiller, but that's not all that needs replacing. Fully two-thirds of last year's receiving yards aren't going to be on the field this year, and other than quarterback Kyle Parker, Clemson needs a new plan for gaining yardage.
And they lucked into keeping Parker, too, who decided to turn down first-round money from the Colorado Rockies to return to Clemson for another year. He'll have to direct a transition on the field, and do it without favorite receiver Jacoby Ford as well. Xavier Dye, Terrance Ashe, and Marquan Jones all have field experience as semi-regulars last season, but none averaged more than a catch or so per game. Dye was the most productive of the three, but not by a ton. This is one place where a new name is almost certain to enter the equation; perhaps redshirt freshman Bryce McNeal. Tight end also sees a new starter in Dwayne Allen, who replaces Clemson's second most-prolific receiver from 2009.
Even with Spiller gone, running back maintains a little more clarity than do the receiver positions. Andre Ellington was the most productive of Spiller's backups, but Clemson leaned on Jamie Harper just as much as Ellington in a reserve role and probably will split the carries in a similar fashion in 2010. Ellington averaged an eye-popping 7.2 YPC last season, but mostly against the mushier opponents on Clemson's schedule.
But games are won in the trenches, they say, and Clemson's got some of the best in there. They don't have quite the experience of Boston College's group, but it shouldn't matter. The unit's best player is massive left tackle Chris Hairston, protecting Parker's blind side. Mason Cloy (who by the way is going into the Army when he graduates) is listed as the one non-returning starter, at left guard, but he's still plenty experienced and still got a few starts in 2009 as Thomas Austin spent a lot of the last half of the season being mentioned on injury reports. As a whole, the group would easily be Clemson's best unit if not for the secondary.
DEFENSE
Last year's starters at safety were Marcus Gilchrist and DeAndre McDaniel; Gilchrist moves to cornerback this year to help replace last year's senior starters at that position. And to make room for Rashard Hall. Hall played as a reserve safety last year - and still racked up six interceptions and an honorable mention for all-ACC. Hall was second on the team in INTs; only McDaniel outpaced him, with eight. Yeah, it's a good group.
Of course, the reason Hall did so well even as a backup is because he was on the field a lot: Clemson's linebacking corps was so thin last year that they ran over 600 plays in the nickel package, which means more than 46 per game. That's not a concern that'll be rectified this year, as Brandon Maye is the only returning starter. Clemson appears to have little confidence in their linebackers, as the reserves saw very few snaps as compared to the reserves at other positions. Unless redshirt freshman Quandon Christian is ready to make like Steve Greer or BC's Kuechly, the DBs are probably going to cannibalize the LBs' snaps again.
There's no such concern up front. Preseason all-ACC tackle Jarvis Jenkins had 11 TFL last year, an impressive number for an interior lineman, and that total was matched by DE Da'Quan Bowers, who might be ready to complete his transition from super-recruit to superstar. From end to end the line has players capable of getting into the backfield and making life miserable.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Spiller returned just about everything that Clemson's opponents cared to kick at them, so the search will be on for a replacement. K Richard Jackson has an unsteady grip on the job: once outside 40 yards in 2009, his kicks were more likely to miss than not, and he wasn't any great shakes from 39 and in, either. The two flubbed PATs don't help, either. Dawson Zimmerman is a meh punter.
OUTLOOK
The only thing holding back Clemson's offense is that Kyle Parker still needs to figure out who to throw to; if someone emerges, look out. Parker is a terrific athlete and another year to figure out the quarterbacking gig is bad news for Clemson's opponents. Nobody on this roster is C.J. Spiller, but it shouldn't matter: the line will do a good enough job blocking for whoever has the ball that yardage on the ground won't be hard to come by.
As for the defense, the linebackers outside of Maye are a major weakness, but one that the Tigers can probably cover up most of the time. The line is more than capable and the secondary, especially McDaniel, is outstanding. Clemson has a tough schedule to navigate, and a few flaws. But this was a team that came within a hair of the ACC championship in 2009, and this is the ACC: if "a few flaws" is all they have, the rest might be enough. They'll contend, sure enough, and they just might face FSU with Charlotte on the line.
Clemson Tigers
Schedule:
9/4: North Texas
9/11: Presbyterian
9/18: @ Auburn
9/25: BYE
10/2: Miami
10/9: @ North Carolina
10/16: Maryland
10/23: Georgia Tech
10/30: @ Boston College
11/6: NC State
11/13: @ Florida State
11/20: @ Wake Forest
11/27: South Carolina
Skip: Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Projected starters:
QB: Kyle Parker (rSo.)
RB: Andre Ellington (rSo.)
WR: Xavier Dye (Sr.)
WR: Terrance Ashe (5Sr.)
WR: Marquan Jones (Jr.)
TE: Dwayne Allen (rSo.)
LT: Chris Hairston (5Sr.)
LG: Mason Cloy (rJr.)
C: Dalton Freeman (rSo.)
RG: Antoine McClain (Jr.)
RT: Landon Walker (rJr.)
DE: Da'Quan Bowers (Jr.)
NG: Brandon Thompson (Jr.)
DT: Jarvis Jenkins (Sr.)
DE: Andre Branch (rJr.)
SLB: Quandon Christian (rFr.)
MLB: Corico Hawkins (So.)
WLB: Brandon Maye (rJr.)
CB: Marcus Gilchrist (Sr.)
CB: Byron Maxwell (5Sr.)
FS: Rashard Hall (rSo.)
SS: DeAndre McDaniel (Sr.)
K: Richard Jackson (5Sr.)
P: Dawson Zimmerman (Jr.)
Coach: Dabo Swinney (3rd year)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Media prediction: 2nd, Atlantic Division
All-ACC:
2009 1st team: TE Michael Palmer, KR C.J. Spiller, S DeAndre McDaniel
2009 2nd team: RB C.J. Spiller, WR Jacoby Ford, OT Chris Hairston, G Thomas Austin, DE Ricky Sapp
2009 HM: DT Jarvis Jenkins, LB Brandon Maye, CB Chris Chancellor, CB Crezdon Butler, S Rashard Hall
2010 preseason: OT Chris Hairston, DT Jarvis Jenkins, S DeAndre McDaniel
(Italics indicate returning player.)
A couple years ago, around this time of year, Clemson was the ACC's "it" team, thanks to all the flashy skill they returned. Everyone ignored all the new starters they had on the offensive line, and since that was Tommy Bowden's last year, you know what happened to that story. This year? The opposite - except for the expectations, which are similar, if less hype-induced.
OFFENSE
The general question hanging around Clemson is how will they replace do-everything C.J. Spiller, but that's not all that needs replacing. Fully two-thirds of last year's receiving yards aren't going to be on the field this year, and other than quarterback Kyle Parker, Clemson needs a new plan for gaining yardage.
And they lucked into keeping Parker, too, who decided to turn down first-round money from the Colorado Rockies to return to Clemson for another year. He'll have to direct a transition on the field, and do it without favorite receiver Jacoby Ford as well. Xavier Dye, Terrance Ashe, and Marquan Jones all have field experience as semi-regulars last season, but none averaged more than a catch or so per game. Dye was the most productive of the three, but not by a ton. This is one place where a new name is almost certain to enter the equation; perhaps redshirt freshman Bryce McNeal. Tight end also sees a new starter in Dwayne Allen, who replaces Clemson's second most-prolific receiver from 2009.
Even with Spiller gone, running back maintains a little more clarity than do the receiver positions. Andre Ellington was the most productive of Spiller's backups, but Clemson leaned on Jamie Harper just as much as Ellington in a reserve role and probably will split the carries in a similar fashion in 2010. Ellington averaged an eye-popping 7.2 YPC last season, but mostly against the mushier opponents on Clemson's schedule.
But games are won in the trenches, they say, and Clemson's got some of the best in there. They don't have quite the experience of Boston College's group, but it shouldn't matter. The unit's best player is massive left tackle Chris Hairston, protecting Parker's blind side. Mason Cloy (who by the way is going into the Army when he graduates) is listed as the one non-returning starter, at left guard, but he's still plenty experienced and still got a few starts in 2009 as Thomas Austin spent a lot of the last half of the season being mentioned on injury reports. As a whole, the group would easily be Clemson's best unit if not for the secondary.
DEFENSE
Last year's starters at safety were Marcus Gilchrist and DeAndre McDaniel; Gilchrist moves to cornerback this year to help replace last year's senior starters at that position. And to make room for Rashard Hall. Hall played as a reserve safety last year - and still racked up six interceptions and an honorable mention for all-ACC. Hall was second on the team in INTs; only McDaniel outpaced him, with eight. Yeah, it's a good group.
Of course, the reason Hall did so well even as a backup is because he was on the field a lot: Clemson's linebacking corps was so thin last year that they ran over 600 plays in the nickel package, which means more than 46 per game. That's not a concern that'll be rectified this year, as Brandon Maye is the only returning starter. Clemson appears to have little confidence in their linebackers, as the reserves saw very few snaps as compared to the reserves at other positions. Unless redshirt freshman Quandon Christian is ready to make like Steve Greer or BC's Kuechly, the DBs are probably going to cannibalize the LBs' snaps again.
There's no such concern up front. Preseason all-ACC tackle Jarvis Jenkins had 11 TFL last year, an impressive number for an interior lineman, and that total was matched by DE Da'Quan Bowers, who might be ready to complete his transition from super-recruit to superstar. From end to end the line has players capable of getting into the backfield and making life miserable.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Spiller returned just about everything that Clemson's opponents cared to kick at them, so the search will be on for a replacement. K Richard Jackson has an unsteady grip on the job: once outside 40 yards in 2009, his kicks were more likely to miss than not, and he wasn't any great shakes from 39 and in, either. The two flubbed PATs don't help, either. Dawson Zimmerman is a meh punter.
OUTLOOK
The only thing holding back Clemson's offense is that Kyle Parker still needs to figure out who to throw to; if someone emerges, look out. Parker is a terrific athlete and another year to figure out the quarterbacking gig is bad news for Clemson's opponents. Nobody on this roster is C.J. Spiller, but it shouldn't matter: the line will do a good enough job blocking for whoever has the ball that yardage on the ground won't be hard to come by.
As for the defense, the linebackers outside of Maye are a major weakness, but one that the Tigers can probably cover up most of the time. The line is more than capable and the secondary, especially McDaniel, is outstanding. Clemson has a tough schedule to navigate, and a few flaws. But this was a team that came within a hair of the ACC championship in 2009, and this is the ACC: if "a few flaws" is all they have, the rest might be enough. They'll contend, sure enough, and they just might face FSU with Charlotte on the line.
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