After two weekends of screwing around with the pitching rotations, it's time once again for a straight-up weekend duel. Best two out of three; winner goes to Omaha. It's that easy. Here's a look at an opponent that we Hoos aren't that familiar with.
Possible lineup:
CF Chris Ellison (.329-4-30)
LF Max White (.307-14-40)
3B Garrett Buechele (.387-16-62)
1B Cameron Seitzer (.317-14-51)
C Tyler Ogle (.308-8-40)
RF Cody Reine (.333-6-31)
2B Danny Black (.339-5-47)
DH Ricky Eisenberg (.306-3-12)
SS Caleb Bushyhead (.329-5-35)
Rotation:
RHP Michael Rocha (7-1, 3.50)
RHP Zach Neal (8-3, 4.42)
RHP Bobby Shore (9-4, 4.23)
Bullpen:
RHP Jeremy Erben (7-1, 3.90)
RHP Jack Mayfield (4-0, 2.03)
LHP J.R. Robinson (2-3, 4.61)
RHP Ryan Duke (3-1, 3.51, 11 SV)
The Sooners shifted their lineup a lot during the course of the season, but that's the one they finished up with - it stayed that way during both the Big 12 tournament and last week's regional games against Oral Roberts and UNC. Since lefty Danny Hultzen is taking the mound tomorrow, you may see some changes in that lineup: right-handed Kaleb Herren, for example, could step in at the expense of the left-handed Cody Reine in right field. Oklahoma has a lot of left-right flexibility, so expect a lot of pinch-hitting to nullify any matchup advantages that Brian O'Connor might want to try and exploit.
Regardless of who subs in and out, there's one thing you won't see in the lineup: weak spots. It's too late in the season for that. Even St. John's with their very scary middle, had some really lame hitters at the bottom. None of that for Oklahoma. And their home park, Mitchell Field, is a pitchers' park with dimensions even larger than those of Davenport, so they won't suddenly find themselves with warning-track power.
In order to beat them, our pitchers will need to have their off-speed stuff on point. The Sooners' bats like to swing, and they're prone to missing. They're tops in the Big 12 in strikeouts. Just don't hang a curve: they also lead the Big 12 in slugging %.
As for the pitching, there's another thing you'll see missing: lefties. That's a positive for our lineup, and hopefully some of our spark plugs like Jarrett Parker and Keith Werman can have a big weekend. Michael Rocha is the announced starter for Oklahoma against Danny Hultzen; Rocha has been a reliever most of the season, but against Kansas in the Big 12 tournament, he showed the ability to pitch deep into a game, going eight innings for the win.
The Sooner arms are about like their bats, really: mostly not eye-popping, but solid and without weak points. It should work in our favor that any lefties they might put on the mound are either seldom-used, hittable, or both. Still, the bats will need to be on their best behavior all weekend, because Oklahoma has a good, deep bullpen and won't have any qualms about pulling a struggling starter and choking off any rallies.
The game 3 matchups are TBD, because that always depends on who the coaches bring in to relieve. In our case, that basically means that Branden Kline will start on Monday if we didn't use him on Saturday or Sunday. Oklahoma's Bobby Shore is a safer bet to get the nod, as he's been strictly a starter all year and the Sooner pen is deep enough that he shouldn't be needed in any emergency duty.
Tough weekend - in other words, just like being back in the ACC regular season. If the pitching holds up (translation: if Hultzen pitches like Hultzen and Morey pitches like Morey) then this thing is UVA's to win. After all, the Hoos won 9 of 10 ACC series. If not, it could be an interesting series full of double-digit scoring. Two more wins to Omaha.
Friday, June 11, 2010
Thursday, June 10, 2010
i'm duty-bound to chime in on this expansion stuff
Nobody's talking about anything but conference expansion at this point, so in order to not look like I live in my own tiny little world, I must say things about it. Even if the ACC is, for now, only peripherally involved.
Occasionally I write things half for the purpose of convincing myself they're true, and ordinarily I don't like for you to know the difference between that and things I fervently believe with all my heart. Ideally I'd write nothing except for things I fervently believe with all my heart, except for when they turn out to be wrong and then I was just throwing that stuff out there as a possibility. But this: well, one of my strongest beliefs in college football in in the church of Get-off-my-lawn-ism, so I don't usually take too well to mega seismic shifts in the landscape.
Neither do a lot of people. But the larger point (one that I'm not especially happy to accept myself) is that this kind of shift has been going on all throughout college football's history. Conferences grow, disappear, form out of thin air, and the landscape looks different decade to decade. Believe me, I'd be happy as a clam if things stayed just the way they were, except with Notre Dame in the Big Ten where they bloody well belong. 12-team conferences work. 16-team conferences are weird. But such is life. Consider how things have evolved throughout the decades. See if you can follow along....
Once upon a time, there used to be a thing called the Southern Conference. There still is, but its major status has long since disappeared into dust. The Pac-10 (or 11, what with Colorado and all) claims to be the conference with the longest-standing associations between schools, but truth be told the current incarnation of the Pac-10 rose up out of the ashes of what used to be the Pacific Coast Conference, which was basically the Pac-10 minus the Arizonas, and plus Idaho and Montana. The latter two disappeared, the PCC dissolved and became the AAWU, and re-emerged as the Pac-8, some five or six years after the ACC was formed out of a chunk of the Southern Conference, which at the time was a horribly unwieldy mess of 17 loosely-associated teams. But not Georgia Tech, which used to be in the SEC. Instead they had South Carolina. South Carolina quit and became an independent (unthinkable today) and Georgia Tech was poached from the SEC as a replacement.
The Big Ten wasn't always the Big Ten, of course. They were the Big Nine in between the University of Chicago's departure and the arrival of Michigan State in the '50s. The Big 12 used to be the Big 8, which used to be the Big 7, which used to be Big 6; the name changed as they glommed on teams like Colorado and Oklahoma State. The Southwest Conference existed happily for 80 years - indeed it would have been unthinkable for the SWC to ever disappear, as they had just about every school that mattered in football-mad Texas. But disappear it did, starting when the SEC poached Arkansas and added South Carolina to make the first (egads!) 12-team behemoth.
The history of football out west is a lot like the history of gunslinging out west: full of graveyards and short-lived, constantly-shifting allegiances. The WAC was the big thing in the '90s - very big, until a schism in a conference too big to sustain itself created the Mountain West. But if you look at the history of schools in that region of the country, it's filled with things called the Border Conference, Skyline Conference, Mountain States Conference, and other appealing names.
And let's not forget the endeavours of our very own ACC, whose expansion in the middle of the 2000s caused a ripple effect that triggered migrations to and from the Big East (itself a weird conglomeration of once-independent football schools like Pitt and Miami that decided to give the whole conference thing a try), Conference USA, the Sun Belt, and sundry other destinations. None of these are more than 20 years old. C-USA, of course, is the unholy result of a merger between the Metro Conference (VT's old-time association) and the Great Midwest Conference, of which only two teams remain in C-USA to begin with, the rest having scattered to the four winds.
Did you catch all that? There'll be a quiz. But if you fail, don't worry. If you don't like the landscape of things, wait a few years and it'll all shake out differently again. It has before. The only thing different about now is that it's all happening all at once - welcome to the Internet age.
Occasionally I write things half for the purpose of convincing myself they're true, and ordinarily I don't like for you to know the difference between that and things I fervently believe with all my heart. Ideally I'd write nothing except for things I fervently believe with all my heart, except for when they turn out to be wrong and then I was just throwing that stuff out there as a possibility. But this: well, one of my strongest beliefs in college football in in the church of Get-off-my-lawn-ism, so I don't usually take too well to mega seismic shifts in the landscape.
Neither do a lot of people. But the larger point (one that I'm not especially happy to accept myself) is that this kind of shift has been going on all throughout college football's history. Conferences grow, disappear, form out of thin air, and the landscape looks different decade to decade. Believe me, I'd be happy as a clam if things stayed just the way they were, except with Notre Dame in the Big Ten where they bloody well belong. 12-team conferences work. 16-team conferences are weird. But such is life. Consider how things have evolved throughout the decades. See if you can follow along....
Once upon a time, there used to be a thing called the Southern Conference. There still is, but its major status has long since disappeared into dust. The Pac-10 (or 11, what with Colorado and all) claims to be the conference with the longest-standing associations between schools, but truth be told the current incarnation of the Pac-10 rose up out of the ashes of what used to be the Pacific Coast Conference, which was basically the Pac-10 minus the Arizonas, and plus Idaho and Montana. The latter two disappeared, the PCC dissolved and became the AAWU, and re-emerged as the Pac-8, some five or six years after the ACC was formed out of a chunk of the Southern Conference, which at the time was a horribly unwieldy mess of 17 loosely-associated teams. But not Georgia Tech, which used to be in the SEC. Instead they had South Carolina. South Carolina quit and became an independent (unthinkable today) and Georgia Tech was poached from the SEC as a replacement.
The Big Ten wasn't always the Big Ten, of course. They were the Big Nine in between the University of Chicago's departure and the arrival of Michigan State in the '50s. The Big 12 used to be the Big 8, which used to be the Big 7, which used to be Big 6; the name changed as they glommed on teams like Colorado and Oklahoma State. The Southwest Conference existed happily for 80 years - indeed it would have been unthinkable for the SWC to ever disappear, as they had just about every school that mattered in football-mad Texas. But disappear it did, starting when the SEC poached Arkansas and added South Carolina to make the first (egads!) 12-team behemoth.
The history of football out west is a lot like the history of gunslinging out west: full of graveyards and short-lived, constantly-shifting allegiances. The WAC was the big thing in the '90s - very big, until a schism in a conference too big to sustain itself created the Mountain West. But if you look at the history of schools in that region of the country, it's filled with things called the Border Conference, Skyline Conference, Mountain States Conference, and other appealing names.
And let's not forget the endeavours of our very own ACC, whose expansion in the middle of the 2000s caused a ripple effect that triggered migrations to and from the Big East (itself a weird conglomeration of once-independent football schools like Pitt and Miami that decided to give the whole conference thing a try), Conference USA, the Sun Belt, and sundry other destinations. None of these are more than 20 years old. C-USA, of course, is the unholy result of a merger between the Metro Conference (VT's old-time association) and the Great Midwest Conference, of which only two teams remain in C-USA to begin with, the rest having scattered to the four winds.
Did you catch all that? There'll be a quiz. But if you fail, don't worry. If you don't like the landscape of things, wait a few years and it'll all shake out differently again. It has before. The only thing different about now is that it's all happening all at once - welcome to the Internet age.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
FOV Cavalier of the Year, #3/#4
From Old Virginia celebrates its birthday in a unique way: by recognizing one of Virginia's student-athletes as the Cavalier of the Year. What are the criteria for the award? You decide; that's the beauty. I nominate the 12 athletes that I think have been the most outstanding during the latest season of UVA athletics, and provide a short summary of their accomplishments. You choose the winner in a poll that goes up after all 12 have had their moment in the spotlight.
Over the next two weeks, two athletes at a time will be profiled, and you'll hear about what they've accomplished while representing Mr. Jefferson's University this year. The athletes are presented in a totally random order so as to hopefully not imply any endorsement one way or another. Athletes from all fields are considered; part of the point is to emphasize that UVA is about excellence across the entire department and doesn't shortchange its so-called non-revenue sports simply because they don't make headlines. Last year's winner was Danny Hultzen; today's athletes are Drew Courtney/Michael Shabaz and Chris Henrich.
Drew Courtney/Michael Shabaz - Men's tennis - #1 Doubles
Team accomplishments:
- ACC champions
- Ended regular season ranked #1 in the nation
- Advanced to final four
Personal accomplishments:
- NCAA doubles national champions
- 13-2 record as doubles team
- Combined for 23-6 record as singles players in dual matches
National championships are always worth getting excited about, and consecutive national championships are a surefire way to earn a COTY nomination. Michael Shabaz's doubles partner last year was a different guy, but the result is the same: trophies. Shabaz is one of the elite players in the nation: he finished the season ranked 7th in the country in the singles rankings and played 13 dual (that is, us against another team as opposed to an invitational) matches as UVA's #1 singles entry, winning 11. He added three more wins in the NCAA singles championship before being eliminated in the quarterfinals.
Courtney's no slouch either, of course; his total of 32 total singles wins and 19 dual match wins is tops on the team. He finished the season ranked #43, but outperformed that designation by also winning a match in the NCAA singles championships.
But it's as a team these two are nominated. In the season's final doubles rankings, they land at #5. The list of vanquished opponents on the way to the NCAA championship, though, is long and distinguished: their last three matches of the tournament were against, respectively, the #1, #4, and #3 ranked pairings on the ITA's list. And in the semifinals, they faced off against Bradley Klahn of Stanford, who himself is the NCAA singles champion. A difficult road to be sure, but it makes UVA's second individual national title of the season all the more satisfying.
Chris Henrich - Wrestling - 174 lbs.
Team accomplishments:
- ACC champions
- 15th at NCAA championships
Personal accomplishments:
- National 3rd-place finish in 174 lb. weight class
- ACC 174 lb. champion
- UVA's first two-time wrestling All-American
- 35-3 record
UVA wrestling has never really been a big deal. The last ACC championship was in 1977; the last time they'd done this well at the NCAAs was in 1957. Led by Chris Henrich, that changed this year. Henrich, a junior, has qualified for the NCAAs in every year of his UVA career, and only an exceedingly close decision kept him from wrestling in the championship match at the national tournament.
Henrich's 174-lb. championship at the ACCs was his second in a row, and the championship match was no contest at all. I don't know how you score points in wrestling, but I know this: in any sport, a 20-5 win is domination, and in this case it was far and away the widest decision of the meet. He was similarly dominant during the regular season, losing just two matches (one of them to the #1-ranked wrestler in the country and the other by just one point) and none to an ACC opponent. You could hardly find a more natural choice for a COTY nomination than one putting his team back on the national map after a long hiatus.
Over the next two weeks, two athletes at a time will be profiled, and you'll hear about what they've accomplished while representing Mr. Jefferson's University this year. The athletes are presented in a totally random order so as to hopefully not imply any endorsement one way or another. Athletes from all fields are considered; part of the point is to emphasize that UVA is about excellence across the entire department and doesn't shortchange its so-called non-revenue sports simply because they don't make headlines. Last year's winner was Danny Hultzen; today's athletes are Drew Courtney/Michael Shabaz and Chris Henrich.
Drew Courtney/Michael Shabaz - Men's tennis - #1 Doubles
Team accomplishments:
- ACC champions
- Ended regular season ranked #1 in the nation
- Advanced to final four
Personal accomplishments:
- NCAA doubles national champions
- 13-2 record as doubles team
- Combined for 23-6 record as singles players in dual matches
National championships are always worth getting excited about, and consecutive national championships are a surefire way to earn a COTY nomination. Michael Shabaz's doubles partner last year was a different guy, but the result is the same: trophies. Shabaz is one of the elite players in the nation: he finished the season ranked 7th in the country in the singles rankings and played 13 dual (that is, us against another team as opposed to an invitational) matches as UVA's #1 singles entry, winning 11. He added three more wins in the NCAA singles championship before being eliminated in the quarterfinals.
Courtney's no slouch either, of course; his total of 32 total singles wins and 19 dual match wins is tops on the team. He finished the season ranked #43, but outperformed that designation by also winning a match in the NCAA singles championships.
But it's as a team these two are nominated. In the season's final doubles rankings, they land at #5. The list of vanquished opponents on the way to the NCAA championship, though, is long and distinguished: their last three matches of the tournament were against, respectively, the #1, #4, and #3 ranked pairings on the ITA's list. And in the semifinals, they faced off against Bradley Klahn of Stanford, who himself is the NCAA singles champion. A difficult road to be sure, but it makes UVA's second individual national title of the season all the more satisfying.
Chris Henrich - Wrestling - 174 lbs.
Team accomplishments:
- ACC champions
- 15th at NCAA championships
Personal accomplishments:
- National 3rd-place finish in 174 lb. weight class
- ACC 174 lb. champion
- UVA's first two-time wrestling All-American
- 35-3 record
UVA wrestling has never really been a big deal. The last ACC championship was in 1977; the last time they'd done this well at the NCAAs was in 1957. Led by Chris Henrich, that changed this year. Henrich, a junior, has qualified for the NCAAs in every year of his UVA career, and only an exceedingly close decision kept him from wrestling in the championship match at the national tournament.
Henrich's 174-lb. championship at the ACCs was his second in a row, and the championship match was no contest at all. I don't know how you score points in wrestling, but I know this: in any sport, a 20-5 win is domination, and in this case it was far and away the widest decision of the meet. He was similarly dominant during the regular season, losing just two matches (one of them to the #1-ranked wrestler in the country and the other by just one point) and none to an ACC opponent. You could hardly find a more natural choice for a COTY nomination than one putting his team back on the national map after a long hiatus.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
regional of near-doom review
I tell you what - it's probably actually more nerve-racking to watch baseball games unfold on Gametracker than it is watching them on TV. Cause you never know when the next pitch is gonna happen. Might be now, or it might be three minutes from now and then it's gonna give you four quick ones in a row. And sometimes the damn thing ain't even right. This baseball version seems to be OK enough, but I still have very annoying memories of the time the Yahoo gametracker thing told me we'd hit a game-winning three-pointer against VT only to find out a few minutes later it was a game-tying bucket, and yes, we lost big in OT.
Anyway, Gametracker it was for me this weekend, for two games that were pretty much blowouts and two games that were way closer than they should have been. So here's what happened over the weekend:
Friday: UVA 15, VCU 4
Cody Winiarski gets the start for the Hoos and is quickly staked to a 7-1 lead at the expense of VCU's not-so-scary-after-all ace, Seth Cutler-Voltz. Winiarski doesn't last as long as we'd ideally like, frittering away half that lead in the fourth inning and forcing Brian O'Connor to bring in shutdown long reliever Tyler Wilson. Wilson puts an end to any more VCU thoughts of ever again arriving safely at second base, let alone scoring; he breezes through three full innings, by which time the lead is large enough that backup infielder and sometimes-pitcher Corey Hunt - he of the ten IP all year - is brought in to finish the last two, which he does as the UVA bats continue to give the scoreboard operator something to do. All nine UVA starters get at least one hit, and the 5/6/7 hitters (Parker, Hicks, and Cannon) combine for nine hits, nine runs, and eight RBI.
Saturday: UVA 13, Ole Miss 7
The Hoos jump on Ole Miss starter Aaron Barrett for 7 runs, leading Rebs fans to lament that if their second starter can't last three innings, they're really screwed going forward. (They were right: in the next game, Ole Miss starter David Goforth failed to get out of the first inning enroute to giving up eight of St. John's 20 runs.) Danny Hultzen fails to be Hultzen-esque, giving up six runs in six innings. He gets the win anyway, and Branden Kline slams the door after making an oops pitch on a full count to the first batter. For the second game in a row, every UVA starting hitter collects a hit. Most collect two. John Barr collects four in four at bats and somehow manages to never score.
Sunday: St. John's 6, UVA 5
Well damn. UVA had just racked up 28 runs in 2 games and was facing a pitcher with an ERA north of 6; this was supposed to be the crowning slaughter. Instead we get a game that wasn't really as close as it looked. Other than a five-run fourth, UVA's bats were held mostly silent, and Robert Morey immediately gave back two of them in the bottom half of the inning. Despite this, UVA clung to a 5-4 lead through three and a half more innings, until St. John's slugger extraordinaire (who is a FRESHMAN and has TWENTY-FOUR HOME RUNS) delivered his second souvenir of the day into the outfield bleachers. Or maybe beyond. That was the margin of victory, and of course it came with two outs.
Monday: UVA 5, St. John's 3
Since we couldn't seem to figure out how to hit the ball past the outfielders, O'Connor resorted to some small ball. Sacrifices, double steals, and the ever-popular UVA classic, grounding into inning-ending double plays with the bases loaded, resulted in getting runs one at a time. Better than barely getting them at all, though. Branden Kline pitched 5 1/3 excellent innings and Kevin Arico had his longest outing of the year. Why longest? Because Brian O'Connor is a smart baseball man, not a dummy. UVA was sitting on a 4-1 lead in the top of the 6th; unfortunately, the bases were loaded and St. John's had Baltzey at the bat. You do not keep your closer around for the 9th inning if the game is about ready to be lost in the 6th. O'Connor brought in Arico to face Baltz, and Baltz grounded weakly to second; too weakly, as the Hoos didn't manage to get the double play and a run scored anyway. UVA escaped the inning with a 4-3 lead, which would prove to be enough as Arico has balls the size of coconuts.
Outlook:
- Should you be worried about the bats? No, not really. Most of the time, the hits were there when we needed them. Oklahoma's starting pitching is a little bit meh for a one-seed, so we'll get our offense.
- Should you be worried about Danny Hultzen? Absolutely. An ERA that's ballooned about a full point in the last month or so is cause for concern, and his last few outings haven't been great. You live and die with your ace, so he'll be out there for Game 1 on Saturday; let's hope he's good for six or seven strong ones.
- St. John's is going to be a very, very good team next year.
- Again: Props to O'Connor for bringing in the fireman when it mattered. The game was won right there in the sixth-inning with the go-ahead run at the plate and 24 home runs under his belt. It may seem like the no-brainer, but with the bats steadily going cold, it's too risky to bring in anyone but your best; nevertheless, some managers -big-league ones, too - will insist on the notion that if you have a closer, he's a 9th-inning guy only. No, you bring him in when you need the big guns, and if that's as early as the 6th, so be it.
- More on Oklahoma on Friday. For now, give a shout to your regional champs.
Anyway, Gametracker it was for me this weekend, for two games that were pretty much blowouts and two games that were way closer than they should have been. So here's what happened over the weekend:
Friday: UVA 15, VCU 4
Cody Winiarski gets the start for the Hoos and is quickly staked to a 7-1 lead at the expense of VCU's not-so-scary-after-all ace, Seth Cutler-Voltz. Winiarski doesn't last as long as we'd ideally like, frittering away half that lead in the fourth inning and forcing Brian O'Connor to bring in shutdown long reliever Tyler Wilson. Wilson puts an end to any more VCU thoughts of ever again arriving safely at second base, let alone scoring; he breezes through three full innings, by which time the lead is large enough that backup infielder and sometimes-pitcher Corey Hunt - he of the ten IP all year - is brought in to finish the last two, which he does as the UVA bats continue to give the scoreboard operator something to do. All nine UVA starters get at least one hit, and the 5/6/7 hitters (Parker, Hicks, and Cannon) combine for nine hits, nine runs, and eight RBI.
Saturday: UVA 13, Ole Miss 7
The Hoos jump on Ole Miss starter Aaron Barrett for 7 runs, leading Rebs fans to lament that if their second starter can't last three innings, they're really screwed going forward. (They were right: in the next game, Ole Miss starter David Goforth failed to get out of the first inning enroute to giving up eight of St. John's 20 runs.) Danny Hultzen fails to be Hultzen-esque, giving up six runs in six innings. He gets the win anyway, and Branden Kline slams the door after making an oops pitch on a full count to the first batter. For the second game in a row, every UVA starting hitter collects a hit. Most collect two. John Barr collects four in four at bats and somehow manages to never score.
Sunday: St. John's 6, UVA 5
Well damn. UVA had just racked up 28 runs in 2 games and was facing a pitcher with an ERA north of 6; this was supposed to be the crowning slaughter. Instead we get a game that wasn't really as close as it looked. Other than a five-run fourth, UVA's bats were held mostly silent, and Robert Morey immediately gave back two of them in the bottom half of the inning. Despite this, UVA clung to a 5-4 lead through three and a half more innings, until St. John's slugger extraordinaire (who is a FRESHMAN and has TWENTY-FOUR HOME RUNS) delivered his second souvenir of the day into the outfield bleachers. Or maybe beyond. That was the margin of victory, and of course it came with two outs.
Monday: UVA 5, St. John's 3
Since we couldn't seem to figure out how to hit the ball past the outfielders, O'Connor resorted to some small ball. Sacrifices, double steals, and the ever-popular UVA classic, grounding into inning-ending double plays with the bases loaded, resulted in getting runs one at a time. Better than barely getting them at all, though. Branden Kline pitched 5 1/3 excellent innings and Kevin Arico had his longest outing of the year. Why longest? Because Brian O'Connor is a smart baseball man, not a dummy. UVA was sitting on a 4-1 lead in the top of the 6th; unfortunately, the bases were loaded and St. John's had Baltzey at the bat. You do not keep your closer around for the 9th inning if the game is about ready to be lost in the 6th. O'Connor brought in Arico to face Baltz, and Baltz grounded weakly to second; too weakly, as the Hoos didn't manage to get the double play and a run scored anyway. UVA escaped the inning with a 4-3 lead, which would prove to be enough as Arico has balls the size of coconuts.
Outlook:
- Should you be worried about the bats? No, not really. Most of the time, the hits were there when we needed them. Oklahoma's starting pitching is a little bit meh for a one-seed, so we'll get our offense.
- Should you be worried about Danny Hultzen? Absolutely. An ERA that's ballooned about a full point in the last month or so is cause for concern, and his last few outings haven't been great. You live and die with your ace, so he'll be out there for Game 1 on Saturday; let's hope he's good for six or seven strong ones.
- St. John's is going to be a very, very good team next year.
- Again: Props to O'Connor for bringing in the fireman when it mattered. The game was won right there in the sixth-inning with the go-ahead run at the plate and 24 home runs under his belt. It may seem like the no-brainer, but with the bats steadily going cold, it's too risky to bring in anyone but your best; nevertheless, some managers -big-league ones, too - will insist on the notion that if you have a closer, he's a 9th-inning guy only. No, you bring him in when you need the big guns, and if that's as early as the 6th, so be it.
- More on Oklahoma on Friday. For now, give a shout to your regional champs.
Monday, June 7, 2010
recruiting board update
The baseball game starts soon. In fact, the way things usually go, it'll probably be started by the time you're reading this. Heck, it'll probably be over by the time you're reading this. I hope we won. Anyway, win or lose, any opinions on the regional have to wait til tomorrow. This past weekend, baseball wasn't the only game in town. Mike London hosted a big, big recruiting day - the kind where you get a whole bunch of your top recruits in town, show them around, show their parents you actually have classrooms and stuff, and then sit them all down and get as many commitments as you can before they leave town and have a chance to have too many second thoughts.
The end result is that some updates need to be made to the recruiting board, in a good way. With school getting out for the year, the camp circuit is getting fired up and events like this are getting more common and the result is that recruits are going to have a lot more reason to start committing places. So I'll see if I can't get the editor to update that board a little more regularly.
The other development that accompanies this time of year is that the recruiting services start to come out with their ratings. That means, pretty soon, I'll start profiling the commitments so far, of which there are 10, plus one holdover from 2010. It's useful to have three services instead of two, because disagreements in the ratings can be more easily ironed out. I always do them in order that they committed, so basically as soon as the services get around to giving Adrian Gamble some stars, that's when I'll start. You'll notice a lot more stars and such on the board this time, as these ratings have largely begun trickling out to the masses.
So, here are the latest updates:
- Moved DT Vincent Croce and DE Marco Jones to orange. You know that means: it means yay. Both are solid, solid pickups for Mike London. Croce especially; whatever his ratings turn out to be (pretty good so far; Scout has him at four stars) his offer list is highly impressive.
- Moved ATH Brandon Phelps up to blue. Phelps has offers from everywhere and I mean everywhere: LSU, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Alabama, Notre Dame, the works. You probably know the story - that Phelps is a UVA legacy - but it would still be a major recruiting coup for London if he could snag Phelps over offers like that. And he's working on it hard. UVA fans should pay close attention to this one, if you aren't already.
- Added TE Eric Frohnapfel to blue and his brother, QB Blake, to yellow. I get the sense both would be Cavaliers already if Blake had an offer. Eric has his, though. We'll have to wait and see on Blake.
- Added TE Ryan Malleck to yellow.
- Added a couple more names to "most-desired" status: QB Kevin Hogan and CB Blake Countess. Countess looks like a keeper - got the big ratings and the offer list to match - and Hogan is the top-available quarterback. You always want quarterbacks. Their names are now highlighted in orange.
This thing is getting bulky, I'll tell you what. But it makes for a very interesting recruiting season. An improvement over last year.
The end result is that some updates need to be made to the recruiting board, in a good way. With school getting out for the year, the camp circuit is getting fired up and events like this are getting more common and the result is that recruits are going to have a lot more reason to start committing places. So I'll see if I can't get the editor to update that board a little more regularly.
The other development that accompanies this time of year is that the recruiting services start to come out with their ratings. That means, pretty soon, I'll start profiling the commitments so far, of which there are 10, plus one holdover from 2010. It's useful to have three services instead of two, because disagreements in the ratings can be more easily ironed out. I always do them in order that they committed, so basically as soon as the services get around to giving Adrian Gamble some stars, that's when I'll start. You'll notice a lot more stars and such on the board this time, as these ratings have largely begun trickling out to the masses.
So, here are the latest updates:
- Moved DT Vincent Croce and DE Marco Jones to orange. You know that means: it means yay. Both are solid, solid pickups for Mike London. Croce especially; whatever his ratings turn out to be (pretty good so far; Scout has him at four stars) his offer list is highly impressive.
- Moved ATH Brandon Phelps up to blue. Phelps has offers from everywhere and I mean everywhere: LSU, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Alabama, Notre Dame, the works. You probably know the story - that Phelps is a UVA legacy - but it would still be a major recruiting coup for London if he could snag Phelps over offers like that. And he's working on it hard. UVA fans should pay close attention to this one, if you aren't already.
- Added TE Eric Frohnapfel to blue and his brother, QB Blake, to yellow. I get the sense both would be Cavaliers already if Blake had an offer. Eric has his, though. We'll have to wait and see on Blake.
- Added TE Ryan Malleck to yellow.
- Added a couple more names to "most-desired" status: QB Kevin Hogan and CB Blake Countess. Countess looks like a keeper - got the big ratings and the offer list to match - and Hogan is the top-available quarterback. You always want quarterbacks. Their names are now highlighted in orange.
This thing is getting bulky, I'll tell you what. But it makes for a very interesting recruiting season. An improvement over last year.
Sunday, June 6, 2010
FOV Cavalier of the Year, #1/#2
From Old Virginia celebrates its birthday in a unique way: by recognizing one of Virginia's student-athletes as the Cavalier of the Year. What are the criteria for the award? You decide; that's the beauty. I nominate the 12 athletes that I think have been the most outstanding during the latest season of UVA athletics, and provide a short summary of their accomplishments. You choose the winner in a poll that goes up after all 12 have had their moment in the spotlight.
Over the next two weeks, two athletes at a time will be profiled, and you'll hear about what they've accomplished while representing Mr. Jefferson's University this year. The athletes are presented in a totally random order so as to hopefully not imply any endorsement one way or another. Athletes from all fields are considered; part of the point is to emphasize that UVA is about excellence across the entire department and doesn't shortchange its so-called non-revenue sports simply because they don't make headlines. Last year's winner was Danny Hultzen; today's athletes are Brittany Kalkstein and Paige Selenski.
Brittany Kalkstein - Women's lacrosse - Midfield
Team accomplishments:
- 14-6 record
- Advanced to 2nd round of NCAA tournament as 6th seed
Personal accomplishments:
- 41 goals, 21 assists
- First-team IWCLA All-American
- Two-time ACC Player of the Week
- One-time Inside Lacrosse National Player of the Week
- Tewaaraton Trophy finalist
- Women's lacrosse Honda Sports Award finalist
- First-team All-ACC, First-team ACC Tournament team
Kalkstein fell just shy of being the team's leading scorer, but there's no doubting her status as the team's top player. The lady laxers had their best season since 2007, advancing to the second round of the tournament under extremely difficult circumstances.
Kalkstein scores - a lot. Her 41 goals stand out, and she was credited with more game-winning goals than anyone else on the team. There's little she doesn't do - she was tied for the team lead in ground balls and second on the team in caused turnovers. She's also started every single game during her four-year career, without missing a single one. But it's draw controls - the women's equivalent to faceoff wins - where Kalkstein makes her name. Last year she set the UVA single-season record with 73 - and then smashed that record like it was Disco Demolition Night with 97 in this, her senior season. It took only until the first game of this season for her to break the UVA career record here, and when she won her national POTW awards, they were also for her draw controls - nine of them in an upset win against Syracuse, more than twice her already sky-high career average. The men's team could take a lesson. In any case, rewriting the UVA record books and being a national finalist for every award out there is a surefire way to earn a COTY nomination.
Paige Selenski - Field hockey - Midfield
Team accomplishments:
- 20-4 record
- Most wins in UVA history
- #2 seed in NCAA tournament - highest seed ever
- Advanced to NCAA final four
Personal accomplishments:
- Field hockey Honda Sports Award finalist
- First-team NFHCA All-American
- NFHCA South Region Player of the Year
- Second straight selection to All-South Region team
- All-ACC selection; All-ACC Tournament team
- 27 goals in 24 games
Selenski is one of four repeat nominees for this award, and deservedly so as one of the elite field hockey players in the country. Her 27 goals place her sixth in the nation, and just one of two underclassmen in that top six. In a sport that runs second only to soccer in the race to be the lowest-scoring, it's a helluva number.
Perhaps most importantly as UVA had its most successful field hockey season ever, Selenski proved herself a big-gamer. She scored three goals in the NCAA tournament, including the OT game-winner in the quarterfinal against Michigan State; she also scored twice against Duke in the ACC tournament, the opening goal in an OT win over #4 Wake Forest, a goal and assist in a 2-0 win over #9 Boston College, and the Hoos' only goal in the regular-season loss to Maryland. One of the nation's best, and only a sophomore.
Over the next two weeks, two athletes at a time will be profiled, and you'll hear about what they've accomplished while representing Mr. Jefferson's University this year. The athletes are presented in a totally random order so as to hopefully not imply any endorsement one way or another. Athletes from all fields are considered; part of the point is to emphasize that UVA is about excellence across the entire department and doesn't shortchange its so-called non-revenue sports simply because they don't make headlines. Last year's winner was Danny Hultzen; today's athletes are Brittany Kalkstein and Paige Selenski.
Brittany Kalkstein - Women's lacrosse - Midfield
Team accomplishments:
- 14-6 record
- Advanced to 2nd round of NCAA tournament as 6th seed
Personal accomplishments:
- 41 goals, 21 assists
- First-team IWCLA All-American
- Two-time ACC Player of the Week
- One-time Inside Lacrosse National Player of the Week
- Tewaaraton Trophy finalist
- Women's lacrosse Honda Sports Award finalist
- First-team All-ACC, First-team ACC Tournament team
Kalkstein fell just shy of being the team's leading scorer, but there's no doubting her status as the team's top player. The lady laxers had their best season since 2007, advancing to the second round of the tournament under extremely difficult circumstances.
Kalkstein scores - a lot. Her 41 goals stand out, and she was credited with more game-winning goals than anyone else on the team. There's little she doesn't do - she was tied for the team lead in ground balls and second on the team in caused turnovers. She's also started every single game during her four-year career, without missing a single one. But it's draw controls - the women's equivalent to faceoff wins - where Kalkstein makes her name. Last year she set the UVA single-season record with 73 - and then smashed that record like it was Disco Demolition Night with 97 in this, her senior season. It took only until the first game of this season for her to break the UVA career record here, and when she won her national POTW awards, they were also for her draw controls - nine of them in an upset win against Syracuse, more than twice her already sky-high career average. The men's team could take a lesson. In any case, rewriting the UVA record books and being a national finalist for every award out there is a surefire way to earn a COTY nomination.
Paige Selenski - Field hockey - Midfield
Team accomplishments:
- 20-4 record
- Most wins in UVA history
- #2 seed in NCAA tournament - highest seed ever
- Advanced to NCAA final four
Personal accomplishments:
- Field hockey Honda Sports Award finalist
- First-team NFHCA All-American
- NFHCA South Region Player of the Year
- Second straight selection to All-South Region team
- All-ACC selection; All-ACC Tournament team
- 27 goals in 24 games
Selenski is one of four repeat nominees for this award, and deservedly so as one of the elite field hockey players in the country. Her 27 goals place her sixth in the nation, and just one of two underclassmen in that top six. In a sport that runs second only to soccer in the race to be the lowest-scoring, it's a helluva number.
Perhaps most importantly as UVA had its most successful field hockey season ever, Selenski proved herself a big-gamer. She scored three goals in the NCAA tournament, including the OT game-winner in the quarterfinal against Michigan State; she also scored twice against Duke in the ACC tournament, the opening goal in an OT win over #4 Wake Forest, a goal and assist in a 2-0 win over #9 Boston College, and the Hoos' only goal in the regular-season loss to Maryland. One of the nation's best, and only a sophomore.
Friday, June 4, 2010
new old video up
Today, again, I decided to do less writing, more video editing, and the result is highlights of the 2007 Duke game on the videos page. It makes me sad that that was the last time we've beaten them in football.
Thursday, June 3, 2010
it's a party and you're all invited
One week from today is a Very Special Day. No, it's not the day your propeller beanie finally comes in the mail. It's my birthday, wheee! Or to get all technically correct about it, it's the birthday of this blog, which dates its founding to June 10, 2008. That means FOV is turning two years old.
It certainly has been an interesting two years, full of triumph, tragedy, and heartbreak. UVA is the most successful ACC athletic department since expansion, and that is awesome, and nearly half those ACC titles have come in the last two years. On the other hand, the last two seasons have both seen major coach firings. Al Groh and Dave Leitao were the big-cheese coaches when this blog began; they've been replaced by Mike London and Tony Bennett. (This also necessitates a change of banners, which I'm working on. My limited graphic design skills are combining forces with my limited software to produce a bunch of stuff I hate. Getting there, though.)
Interesting times for the blog itself, too. I've been so idiotically wrong at times, and prophetic at others. (It counts even if that foresight was the result of a visit to Emo Myspace Land.) I've been quoted at Yahoo and won interesting awards, the latter of which I'd like to think is for being bloody damn right.
Anyway, just like last year, birthday party means it's time to recognize the athletes that are out at the forefront, wearing the colors and representing the school. The 2nd annual FOV Cavalier of the Year Award, which is basically the prestige equivalent of a Nobel Athletics Prize and therefore only Hoos are eligible, is hereby announced. Last year's winner was baseball's Danny Hultzen, a worthy awardee, and he returns as a nominee this year as well. The twelve nominees, in alphabetical order, are:
Robby Andrews (track)
Ken Clausen (lacrosse)
Drew Courtney/Michael Shabaz (tennis)
Chris Henrich (wrestling)
Danny Hultzen (baseball)
Brittany Kalkstein (lacrosse)
Lauren Perdue (swimming)
Diego Restrepo (soccer)
Scot Robison (swimming)
Paige Selenski (field hockey)
Sarah Tacke (softball)
Monica Wright (basketball)
Here's the format: over the next couple weeks, I'll be profiling these standout athletes for you with a summary of their accomplishments this season, two at a time and in a random order. Just about every one of them has earned some kind of hardware or individual recognition for their exploits. When I'm done with the summaries, a poll will go up on the right-hand side. I determine the nominees, but you the readers determine the winner. Hultzen was indeed the people's choice last year, and I must say you chose wisely. The power will again be in your hands; do not use it for evil.
It certainly has been an interesting two years, full of triumph, tragedy, and heartbreak. UVA is the most successful ACC athletic department since expansion, and that is awesome, and nearly half those ACC titles have come in the last two years. On the other hand, the last two seasons have both seen major coach firings. Al Groh and Dave Leitao were the big-cheese coaches when this blog began; they've been replaced by Mike London and Tony Bennett. (This also necessitates a change of banners, which I'm working on. My limited graphic design skills are combining forces with my limited software to produce a bunch of stuff I hate. Getting there, though.)
Interesting times for the blog itself, too. I've been so idiotically wrong at times, and prophetic at others. (It counts even if that foresight was the result of a visit to Emo Myspace Land.) I've been quoted at Yahoo and won interesting awards, the latter of which I'd like to think is for being bloody damn right.
Anyway, just like last year, birthday party means it's time to recognize the athletes that are out at the forefront, wearing the colors and representing the school. The 2nd annual FOV Cavalier of the Year Award, which is basically the prestige equivalent of a Nobel Athletics Prize and therefore only Hoos are eligible, is hereby announced. Last year's winner was baseball's Danny Hultzen, a worthy awardee, and he returns as a nominee this year as well. The twelve nominees, in alphabetical order, are:
Robby Andrews (track)
Ken Clausen (lacrosse)
Drew Courtney/Michael Shabaz (tennis)
Chris Henrich (wrestling)
Danny Hultzen (baseball)
Brittany Kalkstein (lacrosse)
Lauren Perdue (swimming)
Diego Restrepo (soccer)
Scot Robison (swimming)
Paige Selenski (field hockey)
Sarah Tacke (softball)
Monica Wright (basketball)
Here's the format: over the next couple weeks, I'll be profiling these standout athletes for you with a summary of their accomplishments this season, two at a time and in a random order. Just about every one of them has earned some kind of hardware or individual recognition for their exploits. When I'm done with the summaries, a poll will go up on the right-hand side. I determine the nominees, but you the readers determine the winner. Hultzen was indeed the people's choice last year, and I must say you chose wisely. The power will again be in your hands; do not use it for evil.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Charlottesville regional preview
No traveling for the Hoos this year, at least not for a couple weeks. The reward for being one of the top 8 teams in the NCAA baseball tournament is to host a four-team regional, and a super-regional if they make it out of the weekend. The only puzzling decision is making UVA the #5 seed instead of the top-3 seed they deserved, but it's been pretty much confirmed that everyone who knows anything about baseball thinks that's retarded. (Ratcliffe at the CDP says we got "the fuzzy end of the lollipop" which sounds like the weirdest G-rated euphemism ever for something very X-rated. Use your imagination.)
That being said, it's not a bad draw. Here's a preview of the three teams coming to Charlottesville this weekend:
Ole Miss
You recognize the name. You won't really recognize the team. Last year's Rebel squad was good enough to be in Omaha had they been maybe a little more fortunate on the draw. That team could hit and had plenty of quality options behind Drew Pomeranz on the mound. This team still has Pomeranz, but the hitting and the pitching isn't nearly up to snuff with last year's team. They ended up with a middling finish in the SEC, the result of a really maddening season in which they would do things like sweep powerhouse LSU but drop a series to doormat Tennessee. You're always in for a fight when you take on an SEC team in the NCAAs, but as #2 seeds go, we could have had a worse draw.
Possible lineup:
CF Tim Ferguson (.301-8-33)
3B Zach Miller (.279-2-46)
RF Matt Smith (.344-12-51)
DH Matt Snyder (.343-10-33)
LF Taylor Hashman (.307-9-40)
2B Alex Yarbrough (.285-3-37)
1B Miles Hamblin (.225-6-39)
SS Kevin Mort (.279-2-22)
C Taylor Hightower (.285-0-17)
Rotation:
RHP Drew Pomeranz (8-2, 2.21)
RHP Aaron Barrett (7-4, 4.16)
RHP David Goforth (1-5, 8.41)
RHP Rory McKean (4-2, 5.65)
Bullpen:
LHP Matt Crouse (5-1, 3.12)
RHP Trent Rothlin (3-4, 4.43)
RHP Eric Callender (4-1, 5.83)
LHP Matt Tracy (4-3, 5.98)
RHP Brett Huber (2-0, 2.54, 12 SV)
Ole Miss against the ACC: no games
The lineup is largely conjecture; as you can see, Ole Miss has struggled to find any consistency from the bottom half. In some cases they have two players to choose from at a certain position: one that can't hit for contact and one that has no power. And of the seven players with .300 or greater batting averages from last year, four are gone and one was Miller, for whom the bottom dropped out this year.
Since Davenport qualifies as a pitcher's park - smaller than Ole Miss's Swayze Field in the alleys and out to center - I think we'll see Ole Miss lean toward contact hitters, so you might also see backup outfielder Tanner Mathis in the lineup against right-handers.
As for the pitchers, there's conflicting information as to who'll get the call on Friday for Ole Miss. Might as well go with the direct quote from Rebels' coach Mike Bianco, who says top-ten-pick-in-waiting Drew Pomeranz will get the start against St. John's. That means the Hoos, if UVA and Ole Miss win, will face Aaron Barrett. And it means Barrett will have to go against Danny Hultzen, as O'Connor has tabbed Cody Winiarski to start on Friday. (The right choice: if we can't beat the #147 team in the country with any of our weekend starters, we'll never get to Omaha anyway.)
After Pomeranz and Barrett, though, the rotation is almost totally worthless. The Rebels missed out on a lot of sweeps - including one against SEC punching bag Georgia - because they have no third starter at all. If the series holds true to seeding form and UVA faces Ole Miss in a championship game on Sunday, the hitters will be absolutely salivating at the prospect of a few at-bats each against a used-up Ole Miss pen. With Pomeranz going on Friday, a UVA-Ole Miss matchup should be in the cards for Saturday, and the Rebels don't have the bats to chase Hultzen nor the arms to win any games after Saturday.
St. John's
Dangerous matchup for Ole Miss here, as the Johnnies can hit and have one quality pitcher. They caught a break on the schedule by not having to play regular-season champ UConn, but nevertheless had to get past the Huskies for the Big East championship, which they did. Ace Kyle Hansen pitched into the 7th inning against UConn after having gone eight full frames just four days earlier.
A lot of the Storm's best players are freshman, including Hansen and masher extraordinaire Jeremy Baltz. Not good for future Big East opponents, but here's hoping experience and guile plus a loud Davenport win out in any potential UVA-SJU matchup.
Possible lineup:
CF Scott Ferrara (.282-1-29)
RF Jimmy Parque (.352-4-44)
SS Joe Panik (.383-8-48)
LF Jeremy Baltz (.393-20-74)
3B Greg Hopkins (.367-6-55)
2B Matt Wessinger (.284-4-43)
1B Paul Karmas (.329-8-52)
DH Sean O'Hare (.352-1-29)
C Joe Witkowski (.217-0-8)
Rotation:
RHP Kyle Hansen (8-1, 3.09)
RHP Bruce Kern (6-5, 5.91)
RHP Nick Cenatiempo (1-1, 6.34)
RHP Matt Carasiti (7-4, 5.88)
Bullpen:
LHP Kevin Kilpatrick (1-1, 3.57)
RHP Stephen Rivera (4-2, 3.65)
RHP Ryan Cole (3-1, 3.96)
LHP Sean Hagan (4-1, 4.74)
RHP Daniel Burawa (1-0, 2.78, 11 SV)
St. John's against the ACC: lost to UNC 8-2, beat Boston College 17-9
Extrapolate Jeremy Baltz's numbers out to a 162-game MLB season and you get 56 HRs and 207 RBIs. Jeesh. 20 and 74 are damn good for major leaguers, never mind someone who's only played 58 games in his entire college career. Do not make a mistake pitching to Baltz.
St. John's plays in a bandbox, however: about 320 down the lines and just 380 to straightaway center. They're going to have an extremely tough road in this regional: first Drew Pomeranz, then likely Danny Hultzen if they get past Pomeranz, all in an unfamiliar pitcher's park.
And after Hansen in the rotation - nothing. They have a good bullpen; important because starting pitchers like Cenatiempo have a nasty habit of giving up a lot of hits and not pitching deep into games. Rivera and Kilpatrick are the long-relief types and they figure to get a lot of work this weekend.
If St. John's is the Saturday opponent, Kern will likely oppose the Hoos. He's a better pitcher than that ERA would indicate; decent strikeout pitcher, but in the end nothing worse than UVA's seen in ACC competition, and no match for Hultzen. This is a rotation even thinner than Ole Miss's, but the bullpen is better. Even so, if St. John's is going to win games this weekend, they'll need to be by scores of 12-8. And if they're going to win the whole regional, they'll have to do as they did in the Big East tournament and pitch Hansen on short rest. If SJU manages to make it to Monday for a winner-take-all game, don't be surprised to see them trot him out there.
VCU
The baseball committee thinks all #4 seeds are equal, and assigns them to regionals by pure geography. Thus, VCU. The Rams have the only .400 hitter in the regional other than Keith Werman, but might also go the entire weekend without hitting a home run. You want a light-hitting team? VCU is it: 33 home runs all year, and 20 of them hit by two players.
Possible lineup:
CF Matt Leskiw (.270-0-14)
2B Richard Gonzalez (.391-0-37)
3B Joe Van Meter (.433-10-72)
1B Brent Mikionis (.332-10-50)
RF John Lenherr (.293-2-35)
SS Nick Kime (.250-0-10)
LF Paul Nice (.278-2-29)
C Taylor Perkins (.306-2-30)
DH Doug Otto (.281-4-33)
Rotation:
RHP Seth Cutler-Voltz (8-3, 3.20)
RHP Kyle Haynes (3-3, 5.40)
LHP Ryan Farrar (4-5, 8.14)
LHP Michael Graham (4-4, 7.36)
Bullpen:
RHP Jonathan Watson (4-2, 2.78)
RHP Kyle Pelchy (2-0, 4.12)
LHP Brennan Huelse (1-1, 3.54)
RHP Robbie Andrews (1-2, 3.18, 9 SV)
VCU against the ACC: lost to Maryland 7-2, lost to UVA 10-5
One month to the day of the regional opener against VCU, UVA was playing a weekday game against these same Rams. The Hoos won 10-5, scoring runs off of every pitcher VCU sent to the mound, and Branden Kline gave up four runs in six innings for the win. VCU actually hit two home runs in that game. I haven't bothered to check if that was their only multi-homer game all year, but it's possible. Get through VCU's 3 and 4 hitters and the ball is not at all likely to leave the yard.
VCU will throw Seth Cutler-Voltz against us, and he's got more than just a cool name going for him. SCV is coming off two complete-game wins in a row, and any hope of an upset lies with his right arm. The thing is, though, Cutler-Voltz has yet to throw against anyone worth talking about, and no, JMU doesn't count. Fellow tournament 4-seed Bethune-Cookman is the only opponent resembling a difficult team on Cutler-Voltz's resume, and they shelled him.
Right-hander Winiarski should match up well against VCU's lineup, which figures to trot out just two lefties and no switch-hitters. VCU's non-home-run-hitting lineup is also a better matchup for Cody than the other lineups in the regional, as he's a soft-tosser and has a much greater tendency than our other pitchers to give up home runs. But the bottom line is this: Cody is a weekend starter, and if we can't beat a four-seed, #147-RPI team with a weekend starter, then Omaha was never going to happen anyway.
Outlook for UVA
Keith Werman and Franco Valdes may not have been everyday starters this year, but chances are we'll never see a southpaw this weekend, so look for both to get plenty of at-bats this weekend. Along with Dan Grovatt and Jarrett Parker, that's a solid number of lefties to send to the plate against all these right-handers we'll see; first Cutler-Voltz, then Kern or Barrett, and then whatever poor schlub and his 6+ ERA has to face this lineup after that.
The biggest game is the second one. It's good to be the king; the 1 seed has the luxury of being able to hold back their ace for Saturday, expecting that it won't take your top pitcher to beat Friday's opponent. A win on Saturday either gives us a one-win (vice three-in-a-row) path to victory, or it (heaven forbid we end up in this situation) staves off elimination, so having Hultzen available for that game is huge. Especially if it's against St. John's and their murderer's row.
This is set up very, very nicely for UVA to win. The difference in pitching staffs is a mile wide. No, I'm not spoiled by looking at our own; there are plenty of teams that didn't make this tournament that have deeper and better pitching staffs than the three that got sent to Charlottesville. Even if we have to play Sunday morning in an elimination game, by that time our opponent will have burned through just about every worthwhile pitcher and we'll have Robert Morey. And if we go 2-0 on Friday and Saturday, it's over; some poor used-up staff is going to have to try and win two in a row against Morey and then (probably) Kline. Ain't happening. If we go 2-0, the third game will be a slaughter.
But to get to 2-0, the bats need to perk up. The Miami game was a great reassurance, because the rest of the ACC tournament and a few of the weekends prior were starting to see things go cold at the plate. Still - this weekend could be just the tonic, especially if we never see Drew Pomeranz.
That being said, it's not a bad draw. Here's a preview of the three teams coming to Charlottesville this weekend:
Ole MissYou recognize the name. You won't really recognize the team. Last year's Rebel squad was good enough to be in Omaha had they been maybe a little more fortunate on the draw. That team could hit and had plenty of quality options behind Drew Pomeranz on the mound. This team still has Pomeranz, but the hitting and the pitching isn't nearly up to snuff with last year's team. They ended up with a middling finish in the SEC, the result of a really maddening season in which they would do things like sweep powerhouse LSU but drop a series to doormat Tennessee. You're always in for a fight when you take on an SEC team in the NCAAs, but as #2 seeds go, we could have had a worse draw.
Possible lineup:
CF Tim Ferguson (.301-8-33)
3B Zach Miller (.279-2-46)
RF Matt Smith (.344-12-51)
DH Matt Snyder (.343-10-33)
LF Taylor Hashman (.307-9-40)
2B Alex Yarbrough (.285-3-37)
1B Miles Hamblin (.225-6-39)
SS Kevin Mort (.279-2-22)
C Taylor Hightower (.285-0-17)
Rotation:
RHP Drew Pomeranz (8-2, 2.21)
RHP Aaron Barrett (7-4, 4.16)
RHP David Goforth (1-5, 8.41)
RHP Rory McKean (4-2, 5.65)
Bullpen:
LHP Matt Crouse (5-1, 3.12)
RHP Trent Rothlin (3-4, 4.43)
RHP Eric Callender (4-1, 5.83)
LHP Matt Tracy (4-3, 5.98)
RHP Brett Huber (2-0, 2.54, 12 SV)
Ole Miss against the ACC: no games
The lineup is largely conjecture; as you can see, Ole Miss has struggled to find any consistency from the bottom half. In some cases they have two players to choose from at a certain position: one that can't hit for contact and one that has no power. And of the seven players with .300 or greater batting averages from last year, four are gone and one was Miller, for whom the bottom dropped out this year.
Since Davenport qualifies as a pitcher's park - smaller than Ole Miss's Swayze Field in the alleys and out to center - I think we'll see Ole Miss lean toward contact hitters, so you might also see backup outfielder Tanner Mathis in the lineup against right-handers.
As for the pitchers, there's conflicting information as to who'll get the call on Friday for Ole Miss. Might as well go with the direct quote from Rebels' coach Mike Bianco, who says top-ten-pick-in-waiting Drew Pomeranz will get the start against St. John's. That means the Hoos, if UVA and Ole Miss win, will face Aaron Barrett. And it means Barrett will have to go against Danny Hultzen, as O'Connor has tabbed Cody Winiarski to start on Friday. (The right choice: if we can't beat the #147 team in the country with any of our weekend starters, we'll never get to Omaha anyway.)
After Pomeranz and Barrett, though, the rotation is almost totally worthless. The Rebels missed out on a lot of sweeps - including one against SEC punching bag Georgia - because they have no third starter at all. If the series holds true to seeding form and UVA faces Ole Miss in a championship game on Sunday, the hitters will be absolutely salivating at the prospect of a few at-bats each against a used-up Ole Miss pen. With Pomeranz going on Friday, a UVA-Ole Miss matchup should be in the cards for Saturday, and the Rebels don't have the bats to chase Hultzen nor the arms to win any games after Saturday.
St. John'sDangerous matchup for Ole Miss here, as the Johnnies can hit and have one quality pitcher. They caught a break on the schedule by not having to play regular-season champ UConn, but nevertheless had to get past the Huskies for the Big East championship, which they did. Ace Kyle Hansen pitched into the 7th inning against UConn after having gone eight full frames just four days earlier.
A lot of the Storm's best players are freshman, including Hansen and masher extraordinaire Jeremy Baltz. Not good for future Big East opponents, but here's hoping experience and guile plus a loud Davenport win out in any potential UVA-SJU matchup.
Possible lineup:
CF Scott Ferrara (.282-1-29)
RF Jimmy Parque (.352-4-44)
SS Joe Panik (.383-8-48)
LF Jeremy Baltz (.393-20-74)
3B Greg Hopkins (.367-6-55)
2B Matt Wessinger (.284-4-43)
1B Paul Karmas (.329-8-52)
DH Sean O'Hare (.352-1-29)
C Joe Witkowski (.217-0-8)
Rotation:
RHP Kyle Hansen (8-1, 3.09)
RHP Bruce Kern (6-5, 5.91)
RHP Nick Cenatiempo (1-1, 6.34)
RHP Matt Carasiti (7-4, 5.88)
Bullpen:
LHP Kevin Kilpatrick (1-1, 3.57)
RHP Stephen Rivera (4-2, 3.65)
RHP Ryan Cole (3-1, 3.96)
LHP Sean Hagan (4-1, 4.74)
RHP Daniel Burawa (1-0, 2.78, 11 SV)
St. John's against the ACC: lost to UNC 8-2, beat Boston College 17-9
Extrapolate Jeremy Baltz's numbers out to a 162-game MLB season and you get 56 HRs and 207 RBIs. Jeesh. 20 and 74 are damn good for major leaguers, never mind someone who's only played 58 games in his entire college career. Do not make a mistake pitching to Baltz.
St. John's plays in a bandbox, however: about 320 down the lines and just 380 to straightaway center. They're going to have an extremely tough road in this regional: first Drew Pomeranz, then likely Danny Hultzen if they get past Pomeranz, all in an unfamiliar pitcher's park.
And after Hansen in the rotation - nothing. They have a good bullpen; important because starting pitchers like Cenatiempo have a nasty habit of giving up a lot of hits and not pitching deep into games. Rivera and Kilpatrick are the long-relief types and they figure to get a lot of work this weekend.
If St. John's is the Saturday opponent, Kern will likely oppose the Hoos. He's a better pitcher than that ERA would indicate; decent strikeout pitcher, but in the end nothing worse than UVA's seen in ACC competition, and no match for Hultzen. This is a rotation even thinner than Ole Miss's, but the bullpen is better. Even so, if St. John's is going to win games this weekend, they'll need to be by scores of 12-8. And if they're going to win the whole regional, they'll have to do as they did in the Big East tournament and pitch Hansen on short rest. If SJU manages to make it to Monday for a winner-take-all game, don't be surprised to see them trot him out there.
VCUThe baseball committee thinks all #4 seeds are equal, and assigns them to regionals by pure geography. Thus, VCU. The Rams have the only .400 hitter in the regional other than Keith Werman, but might also go the entire weekend without hitting a home run. You want a light-hitting team? VCU is it: 33 home runs all year, and 20 of them hit by two players.
Possible lineup:
CF Matt Leskiw (.270-0-14)
2B Richard Gonzalez (.391-0-37)
3B Joe Van Meter (.433-10-72)
1B Brent Mikionis (.332-10-50)
RF John Lenherr (.293-2-35)
SS Nick Kime (.250-0-10)
LF Paul Nice (.278-2-29)
C Taylor Perkins (.306-2-30)
DH Doug Otto (.281-4-33)
Rotation:
RHP Seth Cutler-Voltz (8-3, 3.20)
RHP Kyle Haynes (3-3, 5.40)
LHP Ryan Farrar (4-5, 8.14)
LHP Michael Graham (4-4, 7.36)
Bullpen:
RHP Jonathan Watson (4-2, 2.78)
RHP Kyle Pelchy (2-0, 4.12)
LHP Brennan Huelse (1-1, 3.54)
RHP Robbie Andrews (1-2, 3.18, 9 SV)
VCU against the ACC: lost to Maryland 7-2, lost to UVA 10-5
One month to the day of the regional opener against VCU, UVA was playing a weekday game against these same Rams. The Hoos won 10-5, scoring runs off of every pitcher VCU sent to the mound, and Branden Kline gave up four runs in six innings for the win. VCU actually hit two home runs in that game. I haven't bothered to check if that was their only multi-homer game all year, but it's possible. Get through VCU's 3 and 4 hitters and the ball is not at all likely to leave the yard.
VCU will throw Seth Cutler-Voltz against us, and he's got more than just a cool name going for him. SCV is coming off two complete-game wins in a row, and any hope of an upset lies with his right arm. The thing is, though, Cutler-Voltz has yet to throw against anyone worth talking about, and no, JMU doesn't count. Fellow tournament 4-seed Bethune-Cookman is the only opponent resembling a difficult team on Cutler-Voltz's resume, and they shelled him.
Right-hander Winiarski should match up well against VCU's lineup, which figures to trot out just two lefties and no switch-hitters. VCU's non-home-run-hitting lineup is also a better matchup for Cody than the other lineups in the regional, as he's a soft-tosser and has a much greater tendency than our other pitchers to give up home runs. But the bottom line is this: Cody is a weekend starter, and if we can't beat a four-seed, #147-RPI team with a weekend starter, then Omaha was never going to happen anyway.
Outlook for UVA
Keith Werman and Franco Valdes may not have been everyday starters this year, but chances are we'll never see a southpaw this weekend, so look for both to get plenty of at-bats this weekend. Along with Dan Grovatt and Jarrett Parker, that's a solid number of lefties to send to the plate against all these right-handers we'll see; first Cutler-Voltz, then Kern or Barrett, and then whatever poor schlub and his 6+ ERA has to face this lineup after that.
The biggest game is the second one. It's good to be the king; the 1 seed has the luxury of being able to hold back their ace for Saturday, expecting that it won't take your top pitcher to beat Friday's opponent. A win on Saturday either gives us a one-win (vice three-in-a-row) path to victory, or it (heaven forbid we end up in this situation) staves off elimination, so having Hultzen available for that game is huge. Especially if it's against St. John's and their murderer's row.
This is set up very, very nicely for UVA to win. The difference in pitching staffs is a mile wide. No, I'm not spoiled by looking at our own; there are plenty of teams that didn't make this tournament that have deeper and better pitching staffs than the three that got sent to Charlottesville. Even if we have to play Sunday morning in an elimination game, by that time our opponent will have burned through just about every worthwhile pitcher and we'll have Robert Morey. And if we go 2-0 on Friday and Saturday, it's over; some poor used-up staff is going to have to try and win two in a row against Morey and then (probably) Kline. Ain't happening. If we go 2-0, the third game will be a slaughter.
But to get to 2-0, the bats need to perk up. The Miami game was a great reassurance, because the rest of the ACC tournament and a few of the weekends prior were starting to see things go cold at the plate. Still - this weekend could be just the tonic, especially if we never see Drew Pomeranz.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
long weekend review
Well, yeah. It could definitely have been a better weekend as far as weekends go. You know all about lacrosse because I already told you all about lacrosse. Major punch in the gut. I tell you what: given that the ACC baseball tournament game against Miami asn't going to change our own fortunes win or lose, I think I'd have traded that win for a win against Duke in lacrosse.
And I realize this is going to make half of you gag and the other half just straight-out barf, but I was happy to see that Duke ended up winning the tournament. My Michigan-fan contempt for Notre Dame overrides my UVA-fan contempt for Duke. And besides, Michigan is tossing around the idea of going varsity in lacrosse and if they do, it's going to be enough of a challenge to recruit against Notre Dame without a trophy in South Bend, let alone with one. Anyway, Duke had by far the better season and was by far the more deserving team. So, uh, yay. Ewwww, but yay.
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As for baseball, the ACC tournament could have gone better than it did, but it certainly could have gone worse. UVA finished 2-1 in pool play, but the tiebreaker sent Florida State to the championship game, since the one loss was to FSU. I think given the format it's a tiebreaker that makes sense, but naturally now that we're on the losing end of it, everyone thinks this format stinks and who came up with this shit anyway? Admittedly, it's a weird format. Double-elimination is the usual standard in baseball; a traditional bracket doesn't work well since baseball, more than any other sport, can turn on a roll of the dice or a hot pitcher. Look at San Diego State last year. Not a great team overall, but their one ace gave them a legit shot at knocking off the ACC champion. So most tournaments are double-elimination, but the ACC coaches didn't like it because it burns up everybody's bullpen and leaves them with tired arms for the NCAA regionals the following week.
This isn't a great format either, given that in four years it's turned out the following championship matchups:
2 vs. 8
1 vs. 6
1 vs. 6
5 vs. 7
The bottom half of the pools (5 through 8) have made the championship more than the top half (1 through 4.) That's not really the sign of a good format. Not only that, but the divisions really screw up the seeding. We did end up beating Miami, but if seeded strictly by record, they should have been swapped with Clemson and GT should have had to deal with the Canes - but also been the top seed in their group. Since everyone's got different ideas to fix it, here's mine - it's this simple. Teams would still only have to play four games at the most, and likely enough that would never happen. Plus: major, major advantage for the high seeds. It was totally sweet to win the ACC championship last year as a six seed, but baseball teams play wayyy more games than any other sport against the rest of the conference - it sucks being on the other side of the coin, dominating a 30-game season, and then losing out on the championship because why? losing to FSU for one, but that wouldn't have mattered if Miami hadn't choked against BC.
So that would be a good way to fix things up, and you could even shorten the tournament by a day if you felt like it. Or not. It's flexible.
Anyway, the ACC tournament being over, that means it's Big Show time, and thusly, here is the bracket. It was a foregone conclusion that UVA would host a regional, but Tim Weiser and the rest of the selection committee displayed their astounding ignorance (or outright contempt of UVA) yet again in declaring UVA the 5th seed behind Coastal Carolina. Here's the man hisself, 'splaining hisself:
Assuming for a minute that there's absolutely no regional bias in the committee and they are purely robots assessing the raw data in front of them, the only conclusion is that the committee considers every conference equal for the purposes of winning conference championships (after all, Florida, which is not the SEC champion, is seeded higher than Coastal.) They also appear to weight non-conference schedule - not performance, mind you, and especially not head-to-head results, just schedule - higher than any other factor. Coastal plays an OOC schedule heavy on the tournament hopefuls to make up for the fact that they play in a conference that sucks donkey balls. We do the opposite. Out of 58 games we've played, a majority of them are ACC games, so you'd think this would carry some weight. It does not.
Fortunately, this is nothing like being shipped to bloody damn California. Given the regional we got handed, it's not really a screwjob, just an obnoxious insult. Tomorrow, you get a breakdown of the regional, which includes Friday's opponent VCU, St. John's as the three-seed, and Ole Miss, which totes a trailer-load of story lines into Charlottesville this weekend. You might remember them from last year. If you don't, don't worry about it - they haven't forgotten us.
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Let's end on a high note. Would a national championship suffice? Rowing is not the highest-profile sport in existence, but hey, they all count the same when you're adding up NCAA titles. Muchos felicitaciones to the ladies of the rowing team, who brought home UVA's second national title this season, placing their trophy next to the one for soccer in the ever-burgeoning trophy case. This is a team with a small but special corner of appreciation on this blog, as the crew team is the only one at UVA whose roster also includes graduates of my high school alma mater as well. High praise is in order for the lady rowers, and especially GP South Blue Devils Caroline Sweeny and Lauren Shook, both of whom rowed for the Second Varsity 8 at the NCAA championships. Many huzzahs.
And I realize this is going to make half of you gag and the other half just straight-out barf, but I was happy to see that Duke ended up winning the tournament. My Michigan-fan contempt for Notre Dame overrides my UVA-fan contempt for Duke. And besides, Michigan is tossing around the idea of going varsity in lacrosse and if they do, it's going to be enough of a challenge to recruit against Notre Dame without a trophy in South Bend, let alone with one. Anyway, Duke had by far the better season and was by far the more deserving team. So, uh, yay. Ewwww, but yay.
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As for baseball, the ACC tournament could have gone better than it did, but it certainly could have gone worse. UVA finished 2-1 in pool play, but the tiebreaker sent Florida State to the championship game, since the one loss was to FSU. I think given the format it's a tiebreaker that makes sense, but naturally now that we're on the losing end of it, everyone thinks this format stinks and who came up with this shit anyway? Admittedly, it's a weird format. Double-elimination is the usual standard in baseball; a traditional bracket doesn't work well since baseball, more than any other sport, can turn on a roll of the dice or a hot pitcher. Look at San Diego State last year. Not a great team overall, but their one ace gave them a legit shot at knocking off the ACC champion. So most tournaments are double-elimination, but the ACC coaches didn't like it because it burns up everybody's bullpen and leaves them with tired arms for the NCAA regionals the following week.
This isn't a great format either, given that in four years it's turned out the following championship matchups:
2 vs. 8
1 vs. 6
1 vs. 6
5 vs. 7
The bottom half of the pools (5 through 8) have made the championship more than the top half (1 through 4.) That's not really the sign of a good format. Not only that, but the divisions really screw up the seeding. We did end up beating Miami, but if seeded strictly by record, they should have been swapped with Clemson and GT should have had to deal with the Canes - but also been the top seed in their group. Since everyone's got different ideas to fix it, here's mine - it's this simple. Teams would still only have to play four games at the most, and likely enough that would never happen. Plus: major, major advantage for the high seeds. It was totally sweet to win the ACC championship last year as a six seed, but baseball teams play wayyy more games than any other sport against the rest of the conference - it sucks being on the other side of the coin, dominating a 30-game season, and then losing out on the championship because why? losing to FSU for one, but that wouldn't have mattered if Miami hadn't choked against BC.
So that would be a good way to fix things up, and you could even shorten the tournament by a day if you felt like it. Or not. It's flexible.
Anyway, the ACC tournament being over, that means it's Big Show time, and thusly, here is the bracket. It was a foregone conclusion that UVA would host a regional, but Tim Weiser and the rest of the selection committee displayed their astounding ignorance (or outright contempt of UVA) yet again in declaring UVA the 5th seed behind Coastal Carolina. Here's the man hisself, 'splaining hisself:
There is very little difference between the teams among the top 8 national seeds. Each of these teams has achieved a high level of success during the year and making distinctions between them is incredibly difficult. Ultimately, the committee makes secret ballot votes to rank teams based on a variety of factors (e.g., RPI, regular season championship, conference championship, non-conference performance, etc.) to seed these elite teams. Note, however, that the committee does not consider coaches polls or media polls as a factor in their decision making.OK, RPI is a factor, yes, yes: Coastal is somehow higher despite playing in a one-bid league instead of an eight-bid league. Of course, UVA is higher than 3rd-seeded Florida, but whatever. Regular season championship: well, both Coastal and UVA have this in hand, as does Florida. I'd like to think that the ACC outweighs the Big South in the committee's minds, but apparently not. Conference championship: Coastal has this, but again - Big South. Non-conference performance. Well, Coastal did pretty well, except for one little hiccup. They did schedule better teams than we did for the most part, but we did actually schedule them, after all, and it's hard to get the committee to count our fall scrimmage series.
Assuming for a minute that there's absolutely no regional bias in the committee and they are purely robots assessing the raw data in front of them, the only conclusion is that the committee considers every conference equal for the purposes of winning conference championships (after all, Florida, which is not the SEC champion, is seeded higher than Coastal.) They also appear to weight non-conference schedule - not performance, mind you, and especially not head-to-head results, just schedule - higher than any other factor. Coastal plays an OOC schedule heavy on the tournament hopefuls to make up for the fact that they play in a conference that sucks donkey balls. We do the opposite. Out of 58 games we've played, a majority of them are ACC games, so you'd think this would carry some weight. It does not.
Fortunately, this is nothing like being shipped to bloody damn California. Given the regional we got handed, it's not really a screwjob, just an obnoxious insult. Tomorrow, you get a breakdown of the regional, which includes Friday's opponent VCU, St. John's as the three-seed, and Ole Miss, which totes a trailer-load of story lines into Charlottesville this weekend. You might remember them from last year. If you don't, don't worry about it - they haven't forgotten us.
*********************************************
Let's end on a high note. Would a national championship suffice? Rowing is not the highest-profile sport in existence, but hey, they all count the same when you're adding up NCAA titles. Muchos felicitaciones to the ladies of the rowing team, who brought home UVA's second national title this season, placing their trophy next to the one for soccer in the ever-burgeoning trophy case. This is a team with a small but special corner of appreciation on this blog, as the crew team is the only one at UVA whose roster also includes graduates of my high school alma mater as well. High praise is in order for the lady rowers, and especially GP South Blue Devils Caroline Sweeny and Lauren Shook, both of whom rowed for the Second Varsity 8 at the NCAA championships. Many huzzahs.
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